Contact: Tom Swiss

(773) 485-9477
February 17, 2015

31st Ward: Suarez Near 50%

Santiago working hard to defeat Berrios ally
CHICAGO, IL - Ogden & Fry, conducted a 1-Question Poll for Aldertrack on Tuesday, February 17, 2015
for 31st Ward Alderman with 297 respondents.
Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely voters.
Regner Ray Suarez
Milagros Milly Santiago
Sean Starr
Irma Cornier

148
95
37

49.8%
32.0%
12.5%

17

5.7%

Margin of Error +/- 5.80% at 95% Confidence Interval

ANALYSIS
Defeating an incumbent in Chicago is difficult, but having the help of a Congressman helps. After Joe
Berrios and Luis Gutierrez had a falling out, the later has helped candidates running against Berrios
allies. If Gutierrez and State Rep. Guzzardi can help Milly Santiago bring Suarez under the 50% mark,
they can re-group for a runoff. There are two big problems for Santiago; name recognition and money.
Suarez has been in City Council since 1991 and has over a $1 million campaign fund. This is one to watch
on election night.
Since most activity in Municipal Elections occurs in the last 2 weeks, there is still room for further
development in this race.

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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METHODOLOGY
Ogden & Fry strives to increase the accuracy of political polling by measuring voters most likely to vote
based on voter history. Voting is a socialized behavior with predictable reliability and consistency.
Ogden & Fry maintains a database with 20 years of voting history. For Chicago Aldermanic elections,
likely voters are randomly selected from voters who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 elections.

CROSSTABS
Respondents by Gender
Male
Female

125
172

42.1%
57.9%

Respondents by Age
Age 18 30
Age 31 - 45
Age 46 - 64
Age 65 plus

50
89
102
56

16.8%
30.0%
34.3%
18.9%

Respondents by Zipcode
60634 Count
60639 Count
60641 Count
60647 Count

5
102
142
48

Ogden & Fry, LLC - 1054 W. Fry St. - Chicago - 60642 - (312) 942-9161

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