historian Arnold Toynbee is not so rigid determinist as Spengler is and points out a
uniform pattern in the history of civilizations. According to Toynbee, a civilization may
prolong its life indefinitely by successful responses to the various internal and external
challenges. Many historians are skeptical of philosophies of history derived from an
alleged pattern of the past. They are reluctant to base predictions about the future on such
theories. Many historians studied the civilizations on personal biases. In ancient times,
Herodotus studied many cultures but found his own Western Greek culture superior to all
others. Western Civilization embraces North and South America and Europe excluding
Russia and the British Self-governing dominions. In this civilization, the
2.United States is leading the all other countries. All the characteristics that distinguish
the West from the East are most marked and developed in America. We are accustomed to take
progress for granted; to assume without hesitation that the changes, which have happened
during the last hundred years, were for the better, and that further changes for the better are
sure to follow indefinitely. The great wars have made a blow to this concept and men have begun
to look back the time before 1914 as a golden age. However, the countries like China
have made much progress without changing its culture. It is as the same as a hundred and fifty
years before. The civilization of China is based on the teachings of Confucius. Like the
Greeks and Romans, he did not think of human society as naturally progressive. He
believed that in old ages, rulers had been wise, and the people had been happy to a
degree, which the degenerate present could admire but hardly achieve. Confucius aimed
to creating as table society, maintaining a certain level of excellence, but he did not strive
after new successes. His personality has been stamped on Chinese Civilization from his
day to our own. The Confucian system survived, bringing with it art and literature and civilized ways
of life. It is only in our own day, through contact with the West and the westernized
Japanese that this system has begun to break.