opendemocracy.net /arab-awakening/zaki-samy-elakawi/geostrategic-consequences-of-arabspring
Zaki Samy Elakawi
The Arab awakening is creating a new socio-political and economic reality in the region, transforming
the balance of power, not because states have become stronger, but rather because states have
become weak and fragile.
A region in transformation
After three years since the beginning of the Arab uprisings, the emerging political order in the Middle
East is marked by considerable changes within each state at national level in a vital region in the
global geostrategic configuration.
The exceptionality of the Arab world has come to an end. The structures and balances of emerging
powers in the late 1970s, mutating since the end of the Cold War, are being transformed. [1]
Since the Gulf War ended, security threats and tensions have increased among the states in the Middle
East. Sometimes these tensions have resulted in a direct or indirect conflict threatening their sociopolitical and economic security. The threat of interstate aggression has manifested in new, more
dangerous ways in the context of the Arab Spring, at a sub-state level, but with very important
implications for regional stability and international security. In other words, the Middle East is
undergoing the emergence of a new security order and regional reconfiguration.
The Arab uprisings have unleashed internal dynamics of protest and political change in most of the
states of the region, its impact transcending national systems, and affecting the political order in the
Arab world. The region is at a crossroads, facing various security challenges both from neighbouring
countries such as Israel, Turkey and Iran, and in their socioeconomic dynamics and national policies.
Depending on the answers to these challenges, the result will range between everything from stability
were the first recipients of all kinds of light and heavy weapons as a direct result.
The weak structure of the Libyan state after the civil war and the failure to rebuild their institutions,
especially in the security sector, produced a vacuum which materializes also in continuous clashes and
fighting in the capital. Therefore, the transformation to the new Libyan paradigm has created a weak
state with fragile socio-political forces, which are opening the door to geopolitical chaos.
the Middle East (Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Syria) and converted the region into one
geopolitical Great Game.[9]This rivalry is manifest in several aspects. This rivalry between Saudi
Arabia and Iran stems from a sectarian identity conflict arising from a time prior to Islam.[10]In fact, the
roots of the conflict date back to a rivalry between Arabs and Persians, which continues to this day. The
sectarian issue sets a parameter to this rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran, with tensions between
Sunnis and Shiites that give shape to this competition. The official Islamic belief of Saudi Arabia,
Wahhabism, does not accept Shia Muslims as true believers. Religion is a neurological issue for both
states that grant political and religious legitimacy in Riyadh and Tehran. This legitimacy is necessary for
the concentration of power, for internal hegemony and is configured as an argument for their regional
hegemonic aspirations. These two countries Saudi Arabia and Iran, both face strong internal
challenges from a population increasingly divided and depressed. Given the importance for both states
representing the religious factor, Islam is translated into terms of a competition for the leadership of
the Umma, which lends legitimacy to a conflict characterised in zero-sum terms.
The other determining factor in this rivalry is geostrategy which is determined by sectarian agendas.
The geopolitical dimension of the conflict crystallizes in the Iranian and Saudi regional security
strategies. The first of these international actors is Iran, in favor of a centralized security approach in
the Gulf, in contrast to Saudi Arabia who looks to external actors, particularly the United States, to
guarantee its national and regional security. This crossover in terms of national interest, plunges the
entire region into a power game. Moreover, Iranian financial support to Shiite groups in Arab countries,
increases tensions with Saudi Arabia, which in reply, encourages Iranian ethnic minorities to
destabilize the Iranian regime. [11]
Spring. Qatar used its relations with the Muslim Brotherhood and the political and financial cooperation
with Islamist parties that took power in some countries to strengthen its geopolitical position. Perhaps,
Qatari hyperactivism is the biggest winner in the Arab Spring. Its Al Jazeera TV channel has played a
significant role in the Arab revolts. In addition, its diplomacy was a key to pushing the Gulf Cooperation
Council and the Arab League to take some measures on the Syrian crisis.
Turkey also has emerged in this period as a power that creates balance between Arab countries,
standing between Sunnis and Shiites. Turkey appears to have reached its limits. Ankara's power was
clearly growing in the region before the Arab spring due largely to the foreign policy of 'zero
problems'.[14] This initiative was based on the expansion of Turkish influence in the region, playing a
constructive role in regional conflicts.[15] But Turkey's role in this region has changed after the
uprisings. Its posture vis--vis Syria in particular has mutated through three phases, first as an ally of
the regime, then mediator and lastly in opposition to sectarian violence against Syrian citizens.
The Gulf Cooperation Council was shaken by the uprising in Bahrain and agitated into action and
assertiveness. Bahrain is still an open wound and the most vulnerable part of the organization, but the
Gulf Cooperation Council has demonstrated its military muscle and political ambitions with its
intervention in Bahrain. The Council has reaffirmed its vocation to protect the monarchical status quo
against the pro-democracy or pro-republics movements, rejecting any attempt by Iran to project its
power in the zone. The rising ambitions of the Gulf Cooperation Council are reflected in the offer of
membership to Jordan and Morocco, in order to promote a Sunni geostrategic alliance, mediating the
transition in Yemen, supporting military intervention in Libya, and seeking greater unity within the
Council.
Israel remains a source of geostrategic threat to Arab security in various different dimensions. It is the
neighbour who possesses nuclear weapons, creating serious military imbalance between Israel and
the Arab states. The apparent absence of Israeli will to resolve the Palestinian issue, by establishing an
independent Palestinian state according to UN resolutions and implement the roadmap also creates
instability. But the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is losing some prominence in the actual geopolitics of a
region confronted by all the other issues arising from the Arab Spring, issues that create greater
concern among Arab states who appear much more focused on internal tremors and the national
policies required to deal with them, than on this conflict.
Conclusions
The Middle East before the Arab uprisings seemed like a heterogeneous security system. These
parameters were inherited from the colonial powers and the Cold War. The Arab revolutions untied the
internal dynamics of protest and political change in most of the states of the region, affecting the whole
political order.
There are three fundamental geostrategic implications shaping the future of the balance of power in the
Middle East.
The first geostrategic consequence of the Arab Spring is the appearance of people as the main catalyst
for these nations' internal dynamics. The popular uprisings in the Arab world were caused by a
combination of economic, political and social deficits. While there are similar conditions in several Arab
countries, the responses of the regimes were dissimilar, creating different models of conflict. The
results of citizen protest differ from state to state, depending on its ability to maintain its monopoly on
the use of force, which in some cases has led to a democratic transition from the bottom up (Tunisia,
Egypt, and Yemen). In other cases, the result is gradual reforms from the top down (Morocco, Jordan
and the Gulf Cooperation Council). The third group of countries are countries with a government
crackdown against the protesters or even a disintegration of the state (Libya, Syria).
The second geostrategic consequence is the proliferation of weak states. First, the monopoly of force
has been questioned and weakened in several Arab countries, with increasing violence at sub-state
level. The new governments or those who managed to stay in power cannot reconcile themselves with
their highly mobilized societies, and have failed to reach a national consensus to calm the sociopolitical
upheavals. They also cannot reform and rebuild their security apparatus and they cannot regain control
over the peripheral zones within their sovereign territories, especially in the Sahel region, the Sinai
Peninsula and South of Yemen.
The third consequence is the densification of geopolitical disputes crystallized in latent conflicts. The
implications will have a great impact on the relations and power structure in the Middle East. It is
crucial to recognise the rivalry and the power struggle among Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, which will
shape the region in the coming years. The main features of this rivalry are:
The manipulation of sectarianism to achieve realistic geopolitical objectives, by Saudi Arabia and
Iran, which may trigger a regional recoil effect.
The strong divisions within the Sunni world, a particular example arising between Saudi Arabia and
Qatar.
Turkish power. The country has been regarded as an example of political and economic success in
many countries. However, this does not translate into a Turkish domain or a neo-Ottoman order in the
region. On the contrary, Turkey has lost some of its soft power in this scenario. However, it did exert
influence through its relations with the Muslim Brotherhood, and may have a particularly strong
influence on post-Assad Syria.
Iran has possibly reached the limits of an expanding influence, and its ability to contribute
constructively to the security of the region can be curtailed. Its nuclear program has added relevance to
Iran, raising concerns among its Arab neighbours in the Gulf. The Arab Spring led indirectly to the
weakening of Iran in the region as a result of civil war in Syria.
The old geopolitical epicentres of the region (Cairo, Damascus and Baghdad) are experiencing
complicated transitions (Egypt), civil war (Syria) and ethnic and sectarian division (Iraq, Lebanon and
Syria). This has allowed the conservative monarchies of the Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar to
attempt to fill the geopolitical vacuum.
On a systemic level, the Arab awakening is creating a new socio-political and economic reality in the
region, transforming the balance of power, not because some states have become stronger, but rather
because other states have become weaker and more fragile.
[1] LGEN, S., et al., Emerging Order in the Middle East. Washington, D.C, Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, 2012.
[2] RZSA, E., Geo-Strategic Consequences of the Arab Spring. Barcelona, European Institute of the
Mediterranean, 2013.
[3] SALLOUKH, B., The Arab Uprisings and the Geopolitics of the Middle East. Roma, The
International Spectator. Italian Journal of International Affairs, 2013.
[4] LGEN, S., op. cit, p 3.
[5] SALEM, P., The Middle East: Evolution of a Broken Regional Order. Washington, Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, D.C, 2008.
[6] RZSA, E., op. cit, p. 6
[7] RZSA, E., op. cit, p 11.
[8] YOUNGS, R., El nuevo viejo paradigma de seguridad en Oriente Medio. Madrid, FRIDE, 2013.
[9] MABON, S., The Middle Eastern Great Game. Zrich, ISN-ETH, International Relations and
Security Network, 2013, p 2.