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Indian Geotechnical Conference 2010, GEOtrendz

December 1618, 2010


IGS Mumbai Chapter & IIT Bombay

Seismic Hazard Analysis for Surat City and Its Surrounding


Region, Gujarat
Thaker, T.P.

Rao, K.S.

Gupta, K.K.

Research Scholar
e-mail: tej_p_thaker@yahoo.co.in

Professor
e-mail: raoks@civil.iitd.ac.in

Associate Professor
e-mail: kkg@civil.iitd.ac.in

Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi

ABSTRACT
In the present paper, an attempt has been made to estimate seismic hazard at bedrock level in terms of PGA using
state of art probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A detailed catalogue of historical and recent seismicity within
350 km radius around the city has been compiled and new seismotectonic map has been generated for the region.
The completeness of the data should be check before carryout hazard analysis so subsequently completeness has
been checked using cumulative visual interpretation technique. Finally earthquake data analyzed statistically
and the seismicity of the region around Surat city has been evaluated by defining a and b parameters of
Gutenberg- Richter recurrence relationship. Finally, probabilistic hazard maps corresponding to 10% and 2%
probability of exceedance in 50 years have been developed for the region.
1. INTRODUCTION
In recent years, the interest of the scientific community
regarding seismology and seismotectonic has greatly
increased in Peninsular India (PI), especially in the field
related to seismic risk assessment of urban seismic areas
and its possible reduction. This is due to the fact that PI
has experienced many strong to moderate earthquakes since
18th century. Surat is the port city located in PI on the bank
of river Tapi. As of 2007, Surat and its metropolitan area
has a population of more than five million. In recent time
city has emmerged as a hub for chemicals, minerals, textiles,
engineering, oil and post based industries. Surat has
infrastructure and conducive environment for industrial
growth, presence and contribution of these industries make
the city, one of the most industrialised cities of India. The
city is located nearly 350km away from the epicentre of
2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7), and unexpectedly received
considerable damages. The seismic zoning map of India
(BIS: 1893-2002) marks the region in zone III, specifying
thereby basic peak ground acceleration as 0.16. Even for
the moderate earthquake, it is vulnerable because of the
presence of varied kind of structures founded on soft soils
of varied thicknesses and high water table as it is in the
high flood Zone of Tapi River. In addition of late, the river
valley is being filled up due to the large number of
constructions with loose/unconsolidated soils, which may
result in high ground motions.

Considering above, Seismic hazard assessment for


Surat region is very essential in order to mitigate the effects
of future earthquakes. Present study focus on the
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in terms of Peak
Ground Acceleration (PGA) considering known seismic
sources selected by preliminary deterministic hazard
analysis. Finally, probabilistic hazard maps for Surat region
(latitude 2100200" to 2101600" and longitude 7203600"
to 7205500") corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of
exceedances in 50 years have been developed for the region.
2. SEISMICITY OF THE REGION
Gujarat is one of the most seismic prone intercontinental
regions of the world. It has experienced two large
earthquakes of magnitude Mw 7.8 and 7.7 in 1819 and
2001 respectively and seven earthquakes of magnitude
seven earthquakes of Mw 6.0, during the past two centuries.
The intense aftershock activity of 2001 Bhuj earthquake is
still continuing. Through March 2008, 14 aftershocks with
Magnitude 5.0-5.8, about 200 aftershocks with magnitude
4.0-4.9, about 1600 aftershocks of with magnitude 3.03.9, and several thousand aftershocks with magnitude < 3
have been recorded. Regional seismicity has also increased
with Mw 5.0 earthquakes and associated foreshocks and
aftershock sequences (Thaker et al.2010).
Surat, which is at around 350 km from the seismically
active sources of Kutch receives unexpectedly a considerable

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T.P. Thaker, K.S. Rao and K.K. Gupta

damages from 2001 Bhuj earthquake of Mw 7.7 and lies


in seismic zone III according to IS 1893:2002, and may
experiences high seismic activity from the far field sources.
Surat is considered to in an earthquake prone area and has
been shaken by several time since historical time. Cambay,
Rann of Kutch and Narmada- Tapti regions are recognised
as one of the most active regions of the Peninsular India.
Jaiswal and Sinha (2008) reported that most of the historical
earthquakes in Peninsular India have been concentrated
near the weak rifting zones (e.g., Rann of Kutch, Narmada
lineament)
3. SEISMOTECTONIC MODEL
Seismotectonic Atlas (SEISAT, 2000) which is generated
by Geological Survey of India (GSI) has been used for
identification of seismic sources in the study area. Total of
17 sources have been identified in an area of 350km radius
around the city. Earthquake data collected from various
agencies and available literature have been superimposed
on the base map along with all tectonic sources. Figure 1
shows the seismotectonic model for Surat region.

Fig. 1: Seismotectonic Model

The earthquake catalogue for this area was prepared


by combining and consolidating the available information
from different sources and covers the time period 18202008. The earthquake data were collected from different
sources, i.e., Geological Survey of India (GSI), Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD), International
Seismological Centre (ISC), National Geophysical Research
Institute (NGRI), Gujarat Engineering Research Institute
(GERI), Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), and
United States Geological Survey (USGS). In addition to
that, a few more data were collected from the catalogues
published by different researchers like Chandra (1977);
Oldham (1883); Malik (1999) and Jaiswal and Sinha
(2005).
The earthquake events collected are about 303 with
minimum moment magnitude of 3.0 and maximum of 7.7.

After removing the dependent events, the data set contains


150 events between magnitude 3 to 3.9, 111 events from 4
to 4.9, 36 events from 5 to 5.9 and 4 and 2 events of between
magnitudes 6 to 6.9 and more than 7.0 respectively.
4. SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS
The Seismic hazard analysis refers to the estimation of some
measure of the strong earthquake ground motion expected
to occur at a selected site. This is necessary for the purpose
of evolving earthquake resistant design of a new structure
of importance. One important application of hazard
analysis is the preparation of seismic zoning maps for
generalized applications. Present study deals with the
estimation of peak ground acceleration based on the two
state of art methods of seismic hazard analysis, viz.,
deterministic and probabilistic.
5. DETERMINISTIC ESTIMATION OF PGA
MODEL
The deterministic approach for seismic hazard analysis is
not well documented in literature, and it is practiced
differently in different part of the world and even in different
application areas (Gupta, 2002). In the present analysis
Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DHSA) has been
carried out for entire Surat region considering the seismic
events and Seismotectonic sources from the newly
developed seismotectonic model for the region around
350km around the city. The maximum possible earthquake
magnitude for each of the seismic sources within the area
has been estimated. Shortest distance to each source and
site of interest has been evaluated and taken as major input
for conducting DHSA. The number of earthquake sources
on which earthquake magnitude greater than 4.0 moment
magnitude have occurred are 16 faults and lineaments
which are listed in Table 1. The entire region is divided in
to the grid of 1 each. Attenuation relationship developed
by Iyenger and Raghukanth (2004) considered for the
analysis and PGA has been calculated at each grid cross
section. Maximum value of PGA has been taken amongst
the PGA calculated by various source at each point. finally
deterministic PGA model has been generated for the entire
region, which is given in Fig. 2. Focal depth of 10 km is
arrived by considering the past events of earthquake in the
region.
6. PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF PGA
MODEL
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was initially
developed by Cornell (1968), which incorporates the
influence of all potential sources of earthquakes and the
activity rate assigned to them. There after many researchers
have adopted this methodology for evaluating hazard and
recently this method has been adopted by Iyengar and

Seismic Hazard Analysis for Surat City and Its Surrounding Region, Gujarat

Ghosh (2004), Raghu Kanth and Iyengar (2006),


Ambazhagan et al. (2008), and Vipin et al. (2009) for the
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Delhi, Mumbai,
Bangalore and Peninsular India respectively. The procedure
for carrying out PSHA has been demonstrated by Kramer
(1996) is adopted for the present analysis. Based on the
deterministic analysis, total of five sources which produce
PGA more than 0.01g has been selected of probabilistic
analysis which is maked bold as shown in Table 1. Seismic
activity of the region is characterized by recurrence
relationships. In the present investigation truncated
exponential recurrence model developed by Mcguire and
Arabasz (1990) and is given by following expression;

165

Cummulative Visual Interpretation (CUVI) technique has


been used to estimate seismicity parameters a and b.
Figure 3 shows the seismicity parameters along with
seismicity deaggregated to each zone. Finally, probabilistic
hazard maps for Surat region corresponding to 10% and
2% probability of exceedances in 50 years have been
developed for the region which is shown in Fig. 4 and 5.

(1)
Where =2.303b and Ni(mo) is the weightage factor for a
particular source based on recurrence. Threshold value of
magnitude 4.0 as adopted in the study.
Table 1: Estimation of PGA: Deterministic Approach

Fig. 3: Regional Recurrence Along with Deaggregation

As the local soil plays a significant role on the ground


motion parameters. Hence Uniform hazard response spectra
considering all classes (BSSC, 2001) have been developed
for the region for above mentioned probabilities. UHRS of
10% and 2% probabilities in 50 years have been shown in
Fig. 6.

Fig. 4: PGA Corresponding to 10% Probability in 50 Years

Fig. 2: Deterministic PGA Model

Mulargia and Tinti (1985) proposed a method for


calculating completeness interval based on the

Fig. 5: PGA Corresponding to 2% Probability in 50 Years

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T.P. Thaker, K.S. Rao and K.K. Gupta

7. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION


In the present study, the seismic hazard analysis was carried
out for the establishment of PGA at bed rock level for Surat
city based on deterministic approach also attempt has been
made to evaluate the seismic hazard in terms of PGA and
SA at rock level and PGA at ground level, based on different
site classes for Surat city based on probabilistic hazard
analysis. There are no previous engineering studies in open
literature on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis covering
Surat region. Hence, results of the present study are
compared with the studies reported in the literature on the
Peninsular India and also with IS code.

Fig. 6: UHRS for 10% and 2% Probability of


Exceedances in 50 Years

Seeber et al. (1999); Raghukanth and Iyenger (2004);


Ambazhagan et al. (2008); Jaiswal and Sinha (2008) and
Vipin et al. (2009) carried out a study for different region
of Peninsular India and reported b value in the range of
0.80 to 0.89. These values are nearly same as that obtained
here for the control region around Surat city.From the
Deterministic analysis it has been found that PGA value at
rock level varying between 0.09 to 0.29g, Hazira port region
at south western side receiving max. PGA up 0.18 to 0.19
g which much higher than the value reported in the IS
code for this region. From the probabilistic analysis surface
level PGA reported for the region. The PGA value for 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 years for Surat city,
considering different sites varies from 0.100 g to 0.210 g,
and 0.138 g to 0.335 g for 2% probability in 50 years which
is again much higher than reported in the IS 1893:2002.

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