Effects of storage

No storage no change in storage I = Q

Large storage big differences between
inflow and outflow

Flood Frequency Analysis

Estimate streamflow

The procedures are primarily for use in estimating the peak flows,
although they may be applied for estimating the flood volumes too.
Analysis may be done on Annual flood series or partial flood series.
Annual flood series refer to the series of maximum flows in any given
year. Hence, to record this series, one has to record the maximum
flow at any given point in time in a calendar year.
- Partial flood series refers to the series of peak discharges above a
certain base value. So it does not matter whether more than one
values are collected from a single year, and none from another year.
We shall be using annual series in the tutorial and assignment
questions in this course.
- The annual or partial flow series much have independent values in
it. This means, that if the maximum flow in 1987 occurred on
December 31st and in 1988 on January 1st, we would not use the
January 1st, 1988 flow as part of our annual flood series. This is since
both are likely to the result of the same storm events and may not be
statistically independent of each other.

Given Inflow (I) and Storage S = f(Q)

Calculate change in storage:
S = S2 S1
= [(I1+I2)/2 (Q1 + Q2)/2] T
S2 + Q2 T/2 = S1 + [(I1 + I2) Q1] T/2
Use relationship
between S and Q

Right Hand Side (RHS): all the known terms

Example

Time
(hours)
0
1
2
3
4

Time
(hours)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Excess
Rainfall
hyetograph
(mm)
0
10
20
5
0

Excess
Rainfall
(mm)
0
10
20
5
0

S 14102Q

Flood frequency analysis involves the following main steps:

constant baseflow of: 10 m3s-1

catchment area: 24 km2
Estimate hydrograph

Excess
rainfall in
flow units Baseflow
(m3s-1) (m3s-1)
0.0
10
66.7
10
133.3
10
33.3
10
0.0
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10

Storage
(m3)
0
106417
401576
576706
499356
386309
298854
231197
178857
138366
107042
82809
64062
49559
38340
29660
22946
17751
13732
10624
8219
6358
4919
3805
2944
2277
1762
1363
1054
816
631

Example:
What is the probability of a 1 in 10 year ARI flood occurring at-least once in a 10
year period? Hence, probability of at-least one, ARI 10 year flood in 10 years = 1
(1-p)^10
= 1 (1-0.1)10
= 0.65
What is the probability that there will be exactly 1 flood of ARI 10 years in a 10
year period?

RHS
120000
452834
650318
563095
435618
337000
260707
201687
156028
120705
93379
72239
55885
43234
33446
25874
20017
15485
11980
9268
7170
5546
4291
3319
2568
1987
1537
1189
920
712

Direct
Runoff
(m3s-1)
0.0
7.5
28.5
40.9
35.4
27.4
21.2
16.4
12.7
9.8
7.6
5.9
4.5
3.5
2.7
2.1
1.6
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0

Runoff
(m3s-1)
10.0
17.5
38.5
50.9
45.4
37.4
31.2
26.4
22.7
19.8
17.6
15.9
14.5
13.5
12.7
12.1
11.6
11.3
11.0
10.8
10.6
10.5
10.3
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.1
10.0

1. Recording the flood series - If it is an annual flood series we are

working with, only the independent maximum annual flow values
form part of the series.
2. plotting the Annual Exceedance Probabilities (AEP) vs flood
discharge - The AEP's are estimated based on the rank of the flood
values. These AEP's are referred to as Plotting Positions of the flood
series.
3. Fitting a probability distribution to the flood series
4. Plotting the design discharges corresponding to various AEP's
estimated based on the fitted probability distribution on sample
graph used in step 2.
5. Plotting the confidence limits associated with the probability
distribution to verify whether the fit is an adequate representation of
the actual flood series.
6. Reading off the value of the design discharge

The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) is the average

or expected value of the period between exceedences of a
given discharge. Hence a 100 year ARI flood refers to the
flood which can be expected to occur on the average once
in 100 years.
The Annual Exceedence Probability (AEP) refers to the
probability of exceedence of a given flood level. A flood with
an AEP of 0.01 means the flood can be exceeded with a 1%
probability, or, the flood is a 1 in 100 year flood (the ARI
being equal to 100 in this case). The AEP is usually expressed
as 1 in Y, eg. 1 in 100.
*It should be noted that the ARI or AEP indicate the
probability of occurrence of a flood on a yearly basis. Hence,
an ARI of 10 years implies that the probability of a flood
occurring in a given year is 1/10,
or, on average, one can expect the flood equaling or
exceeding the design magnitude to occur once in 10 years. It
does not mean that there is a certainty that a 1 in 10 year
flood will occur once in 10 years.

Non-stationary: PDF changes overtime due to urbanization,

deforestation and climate change
Estimate a design flood:
No rainfall data: extrapolate storm using data from nearby station or
area with similar attributes but adjust some variables.
Lots of flow data: Form a sample of annual max flow, fit probability
distribution then estimate Qy.
Lots of rainfall data: Simulate flow using model and do flood
frequency analysis, estimate design and use this to derive Qy
Q. The annual maximum flows collected to perform a flood
frequency analysis are not independent
Effectively number of data points will be fewer
Will impact on the uncertainty of the estimates plus will end up
biasing the parameter estimates towards the dependent data points

Pan Evaporation is the direct method to measure the evaporation. Whereas PenmanMonteith equation, indirect method, requires measurement of variables. The main
assumption that makes them very different to each other is that the water and
cropped surface produce significant difference water loss from an open water
surface and the crop, also assuming in both have unlimited supply of water (Fao.org,
2014). Therefore, when translating Ep to ET0 there must be a correction factor, kp.
This correction factor represent the differences between the two methods. The
correction factor range of a Class A pan is between 0.60 and 0.80(The Constructor,
2010).
Althrough, the Penman-Monteith equation is quite reliable since it takes many
parameters into account in its equation. Its often used only for estimating
evatranspiration of farmlands, but this isnt completely perfect for the use since the
rs value, net resistance to diffusion through the surfaces of the leaves and soil, is a
uniform depending on the type of vegetation of the land. The estimation could get
even worse if the land contains a large area of non-vegetation (Ward and Robinson,
1999). Therefore in this case I wouldnt say that the values of 7.6mm and 4.8401 mm
are reliable since Sydney has a lot of infrastructures which is contrary to the main
assumption of the two methods. Also an inadequate amount of the data which given
to be used in calculating ET0, since the ET0 is very sensitive with changes of data
Thornthwaites method is based on an empirical correlation between mean air
temperature and transpiration rate. Its relatively simple to compute compare to the
Penman-Monteiths method. Given the monthly mean temperatures from the
measurements at a climatological station, an estimate of the potential evaporation
for each month of the year can be calculated. It has been one of the most misused
empirical equations in arid and semi-arid, which Australia is, irrigated areas where
the requirement has not been maintained
- A bridge is designed t0 withstand a 200 years ARI flood. What is the prob. That it
will suffer excessive damage in first 100 years
Assume that a single flood larger than the design flood is sufficient to incur
excessive damage
AEP=1/200 = 0.0005
- P(e)=(100C0)*(0.005)^(0)*(1-0.005)^100 ; probability that 0 flood of 200ARI will
occur in 100 years
- P(e)=0.605
Probability that >= 1 flood will occur in 100 years : 1-P(e)= 1 - 0.605 = 0.395 = 39.5%

Lecture 1
The hydrological cycle - The distribution and spatial and
temporal variation of water in the terrestrial, oceanic and
atmospheric compartments of the global system.
Conceptual model that describes the storage and movement
of water in the Earth system essentially between reservoirs
- Water is renewed in rivers once every 16 days.
Water in the atmosphere is completely replaced every 8
days.
The SUN - The peak of the Sun's energy output is in the
visible light range. Visible light has a wavelength between
0.4-0.71 m, = 5.67 x 10-8 W.m-2K-4, mT = 2877 m K
Energy leaving the sun,S0 = 65 x 106 W.m-2, Rsun = 700 x
106 m Rearth = 6.4 x 106 m, Distance (earth to the sun) DSE
= 150 x 109 m S=1368w/m2(circle) -> S=342w/m2(sphere)
SA=4piR2

Energy Cycle - Earths radiation balance, Vertical energy

balance, Latitudinal energy balance, Seasonal and diurnal
cycles - Earths axis is not perpendicular to the plane of orbit
around the Sun, but is tilted ~23.5 from it, The Greenhouse
Effect, Ocean Circulation
**Energy Transport Sunlight warms the surface:
convection moves heat/vapor from tropics (warm air rises,
cold air sinks!) Circulation breaks up into 3 cells,
Hardly,Ferrell in each hemisphere. When vapor condenses as
rain it release latent heat, warmning the air and driving
circulation.

Q2. Name and explain any mechanism that could produce i)

cyclical climate fluctuations; ii) a linear trend; or iii) a sudden
increase or decrease in temperature?
1. diurnal and seasonal changes in solar output are cyclical. It
is possible that the cyclical nature of sunspots could
influence the climate. The orbital variations proposed by
Milankovitch are also cyclical.
2. an increase in solar output or increases in greenhouse
gases could cause a linear temperature increase.
3. a sudden temperature change could result from changes
in volcanic activity or interruption of the thermohaline
circulation (by sudden influx of melt-water). It is now
thought that ocean circulation can change on the order of
decades.
What would be the impact of parts of an catchment being urbanized
(increase imperviousness) on:
- Rainfall (no direct effect, but will affect the depth and volume of
rainfall)
- Duration: Peak duration is quicker
Flood hydrograph: Shorter Quicker peak higher peak

Lecture 2
Climate is what you expect weather is what you get.
Natural climate variability
External influences: diurnal, seasonal, millennial cycles of
insolation Sunspot, Milankovic{Eccentricity cycle (due to
the gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn.), oblique
cycle, precession equinox}, Naturally occurring random
fluctuations (volcanic eruptions {eject huge quantities of
sulfates and aerosols into the stratosphere },
meteor{Ozone destroyed, High surface temp}) Longer
term weather fluctuations (El-Nio, ENSO, PDO)
Non-linear feedback mechanisms, Anthropogenic
changes(GHG, ozone depletion) Summary - Milankovitch
cycles 25000 100000 years/ Ocean circulation
thousands of years/ Sunspots decadal to hundreds of
years/ Teleconnections annual to decadal/ Volcanos?
Reconstruct climate using:
-Tree rings(carbon 14 dating, isotope decays half-life)
-Pollen records, Fuana and flora(sea cores),isotopecoral,icecore
Eamian interglacial is the closest past analogy of the
present interglacial.
Climate Change Human activities induce by: land use
patterns, urban climate, aerosols other pollutant,
deforestation
GHG Atmosphere consists of approximately 78% N and
21% O2 mainly transparent to SW and LW radiation //
H2O and CO2 are largely transparent to SW, but
strongly absorb the LW // Biggest absorber is water
vapour, which is not well mixed and may vary from
0.01% - 3%.
Atmosphere
- 1 Atm = 101.325 kPa = 1013.25 mb
Vapor pressure (ed): the pressure of a vapor in
equilibrium with its liquid and solid phases. Relates to
tendency of molecules to escape from a liquid or a solid
(evaporate)
Saturated vapor pressure (es) is the vapor pressure when
molecules evaporating = molecules condensing.
17.27T
es 0.6108 exp
237.3 T

Dew point temperature: For a known the amount of

water vapour in the atmosphere, we can calculate the air
temperature which would mean that the atmosphere is
saturated//ed = esTw asp (Td Tw)
Patm(asp=0.0008C-1)
Humidity: the amount of water the atmosphere can
hold. Absolute humidity: the mass of water vapor in a
unit volume of air.
Net radiation is used in heating .
Soil{Heat flux, G}
Air{Sensible heat, H}
Water{Latent heat, LE} to evaporate
Latent heat of c and v = +-2500 J.g-1 // LE of fusion
=333.688
Specific heat of water = 4.186 J.g-1.K-1

Evaporation water removed from surface to atm

Transpiration depends on plant physiology and its
adaptation to water availability, extracts water over the
entire root zone
Evapotranspiration - Three major considerations related
to mass transport away from the evaporating
surface//Energy input: solar energy limitation//Water
content: need a supply of moisture//Turbulent transport:
need a moisture gradient and mechanism to drive
moisture away (wind)
Assumption open water : no water limit, change in
volume is measurable, applied to lake, reservoir, streams.
PET Assumption - the evaporation rate from a short
green crop, completely shading the ground, of uniform
height and with an adequate water supply in the soil
profile.
Important distinction between potential and actual
ET:Potential Evaporation (PET)Rate of evaporation that
would occur from a uniformly wet, large area completely
covered with vegetation and unlimited water
supply.Actual Evaporation (AET)AET takes into account
water supply limitations at the soil surface and limited
supply of water to roots. It represents the true conditions
in the land at that time.

Cloud formation&Rainfall mechanism

-Turbulace: convection of air(usual resut is
a thurderstorm, most eff. Process in RainF.)
-Uplift: Orographic cloud
-Frontal: movement of one air mass over
another. Hot over cold, vice versa.
- Convergence: air rise due to low pres.
Air cooling process:
-Radiation of heat outward
-Contact with colder mat.,eg fog.
-Mixing with colder air
Precipitation measurement
-The simple rain guage {daily}
-Pluviometer {continuous measurement}
Errors: 1. Non-standard collector 2. Initial
wetting device 3. Interval during tipping 4.
Frictional effect based on weight of collector
5. Wind effect&obstruction 6. Non-vertical
setup and Spatial average error
Setup rain gague density design depends on
terrain of the region// flat
fewer//mountainous more gauges needed.
Double mass curve analysis: to eliminate the
inconsistency we can change of location,
instrument or observational procedure
Radar measurement of Rainfall
-Characteristic of radar
-atmospheric condition
-distance to precipitation
-nature of precipitation
-Limit to 200-300km(in grid of 1x1km2)//
strength of radar depends on
size,conc,shape,state of the precipitation
particles.
Mean and Mid Section method:

-Index approach

Get records of streamflow and rainfall

Separate baseflow more on this later
Sum flow volume over all time steps
Convert direct runoff to units of depth - CQS
Guess an initial value for
Calculate excess rainfall using this value of
Sum over all time steps = CPE
Repeat for different value of until CQS = CPE

Calculate total flow volume and

convert to depth
Day
24-May

25-May

Each time step = 30

minutes = 1800 seconds
Volume = Qi x 1800
Volume = 2253894 m3

Direct
Runoff
m 3 /s

Time
20:30
21:00
21:30
22:00
22:30
23:00
23:30
0:00
0:30
1:00
1:30
2:00
2:30
3:00
3:30
4:00
4:30

0.0
15.2
57.2
152.5
260.8
302.9
223.6
112.5
53.5
40.6
24.2
9.3
0.0

Area = 18 km2
Depth = Volume/Area
CQS = 125 mm

Guess try number 3

Guess 3 = 12 mm/hr
Loss per time step = 6 mm
= 125 mm (CPE) OK (CQS = 125 mm)
Time

Excess
Rainfall
mm

Rainfall
mm

20:30
21:00
21:30
22:00
22:30
23:00
23:30

4
7
34
56
53
5
2

0
1
28
50
47
0
0

Calculate sum of
excess rainfall

Physical approaches
Hortons method
Once water ponds at the surface, infiltration starts
at some initial rate (f0) with exponential decrease
over time to a constant rate (fc)
Difficult to calibrate to observable soil parameters

Catchment Average Rainfall

Phillips method

- Arithmeric mean
:-Misrepresent the data, out of boundary.
- Thiessen method: Sum{w.Area(i) x p(i)} = P

Infiltration rate depends on hydraulic conductivity

(K) and Sorpivity (S) soil suction potential
Both parameters can be measured

Green-Ampt method

-Isohyel method

Lecture 4

Model Calibration and validation

Calibration using the available data to
determine model parameters
Validation looking at the prediction
errors from the model
Lecture 5 Rainfall vs Runoff
-Rainfall hyetograph (mm/period)
-Runoff flow, amount of water on the
ground
-Time variation of runoff hydrograph
(m3/s or ML/day) volume per time
Rising Limb: Increase in
discharge
Due to gradual filling of
storage in the channels
and over the catchment
surface.
Losses a slower rate of
rise

Crest: Contains the peak flow//Duration at

this flow depends on length of time of
rainfall//Key for design and forecasting.
Falling Limb: Also called the recession
Decrease in discharge//Storage in the
catchment reaches a peak and then
decreases//Only depends on catchment
properties not rainfall
Baseflow: Contribution from groundwater
to the stream//Is not constant during the
storm//Generally removed for design
//Design based on surface runoff/direct
runoff

f (t ) K
1
Parameters: K, , and e
F (t )
K: hydraulic conductivity
Effective moisture content
: soil suction

: porosity
e
(1 se ) e
r
e: effective porosity
Effective saturation
f(t): loss rate
Residual moisture content
F(t): cumulative loss rate

Effect of catchment shape

Effect of antecedent soil-moisture

conditions

Note: in general, the total excess rainfall should

be smaller for dry antecedent conditions