Yao Yang
Deputy Director China Center for Economic Research (CCER)
Yao Yang is a professor at the China Center for Economic Research (CCER) and the National School of
Development (NSD) – both at Peking University. He currently serves as the deputy director of CCER
and deputy dean of NSD in charge of academic affairs and the editor of the center’s house journal China
Economic Quarterly. His research interests include economic transition and development in China. He
has published widely in international and domestic journals, as well as several sole-authored and co-
authored books on institutional economics and economic development in China, including Ownership
Transformation in China (co-author, World Bank, 2005), Globalization and Economic Growth in China
(co-editor, World Scientific, 2006), and CSR and Competitiveness in China (co-author, Foreign
Languages Press, 2009). He is an associate editor of Agricultural Economics and serves in the editorial
boards of several domestic and international journals. He is also a prolific writer for magazines and
newspapers.
Dr. Yao was awarded the 2009 Sun Yefang Economics Award – the highest economics award in China,
the 2008 Pu Shan Award in International Economics and the 2008 Zhang Peigang Award in Development
Economics. He was awarded the title of Best Teacher by the Peking University Student Union in 2006
and was named a Young Leader by the Nanfang People’s Weekly in 2008.
Dr. Yao obtained his B.S. in geography in 1986 and his M.S. in economics in 1989, both from Peking
University; his 1966 Ph.D. in agricultural and applied economics is from the University of Wisconsin-
Madison.
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China’ss Export
China Export--led Growth
Model: Time to Change?
Yang Yao
NSD & CCER
Peking University
2010-1-15 4
Ratios of working population in the world
Source: Bloom, David etc. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007, 54(1), pp. 92-114.
2010-1-15 5
Capital deepening
Expansion of trade + Low wage rates
Hi h returns
High t to
t capital
it l
More investment
Accumulative growth
Annual growth
Accumulative growtth (%)
Annual growth (%
%)
Source: Lu and Liu, “The Growth of labor Productivity in Two Sectors and International
Comparison.: China Economic Quarterly, 2007,Vol. 6, No. 2: 357-380.
2010-1-15 7
y 1991-2006:
• Labor prod. in manufacturing increased
by a rate of 13.6%
y 1978-2006:
◦ Manufacturing wage increased by a rate of
6.55%
y Consequences
◦ Profit rates increased fast
◦ Share of labor income declined
2010-1-15 8
Profit rates have increased fast since 1998
20 利润总额/ 权益 利润总额/ 资产
18 总回报/ 权益 总回报/ 资产
净利润/ 权益 净利润/ 资产
16 净利润/ 固定资产净值
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: CCER Research Team. “An Estimation of Capital Returns.” CCER Working Paper No. C2007002.
2010-1-15 9
Labor share in national income decreases
2010-1-15 10
Distribution
Di ib i off NNational
i l Income:
I
1993-2007
08
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Share
0.4 Residents
0.3 Enterprises
Government
0.2
0.1
0
Source: Chong-En Bai, and Zhenjie Qian. “Who Are Taking Away Residents’ Income?”
Social Sciences in China, 2009, No. 5.
2010-1-15 11
Shares of national savings in GDP
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
Enterprises
0.25
Government
02
0.2 R id
Residents
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2010-1-15 13