ACTIVITATE FINANCIAR-BANCAR
IMPLEMENTAREA NOILOR METODE DE MODELARE N ACTIVITATEA
OPERAIUNILOR BANCARE
Radu CUHAL, dr., conf.univ., BNM
Ada TAHOVSCHI, dr., conf.univ., ULIM
Ludmila STARINA, dr., conf.cercettor, BNM
Ala ROLLER, dr., ASEM
ABSTRACT. The modeling of the business and especially the financial and banking activity is an important
pillar in optimal banking decisions in uncertain economic environment with fluctuations both at macro and
microeconomic level, and in international economic activity. This article analyzes the problems in mathematical
modeling of the banks decisions, including the development of the objectives and functions of these models, their
advantages and disadvantages in terms of their practical use.
abortarea simplist a mrimii bncii. Ultima se stabilete prin condiiile pieei, asigurarea
riscurilor sau prin cheltuieli reale de resurse.
Dezvoltarea sectorului financiar-bancar a condus la elaborarea unor cerine complexe
privind modelarea activitii bncii. n acest sens, au fost formulate urmtoarele cerine:
proporia i structura activelor i pasivelor, mrimea capitalului propriu al bncii, volumul
fluxului de numerar. Acestor cerine ntr-o mai mare msur corespunde modelul N. Egorov
i A. Smulov, bazat pe principiul legturii inverse pozitive ntre rezultatele curente ale
activitii bncii i capitalul propriu (resursele) perioadei urmtoare de timp. Acest model
permite de a calcula profitul bncii, indicatorii rentabilitii i lichiditii. Totodat,
dezavantajele acestui model rezult din lipsa posibilitilor de administrare a ratei
procentuale precum i de dependena volumului mijloacelor atrase de rata procentual.
Printre modelele analitice pot fi evideniate i modelele ncrederii sociale, care au
aprut odat cu reglementarea i supravegherea bancar. n principiu toate modelele
examinate pot fi catalogate la aceast categorie, dac ndeplinete urmtoarele condiii:
existena susinerii directe i indirecte a guvernului, care n condiii avantajoase
(o rat procentual mai mic dect cea de pia) acord mijloace lichide bncii, sau nu
oblig banca s formeze un fond de garanie (de asigurare);
banca particip la programul guvernului de acordare avantajoas populaiei i
agenilor economici a serviciilor bancare.
O particularitate a modelului ncrederii sociale este modul de formare a ratei
depozitului sau a ratei creditului. Conform cauzelor obiective sau subiective rata procentului
pentru banc se stabilete mai convenabil, dect rata similar a concurenilor.
Pentru rezolvarea fiecrei sarcini concrete cercettorii au creat modele matematice
unicale. J. Sinky n monografia sa Administrarea finanelor n bncile comerciale
evideniaz 62 lucrri tiinifice, care dezvolt teoria firmei bancare. Astfel, aplicarea
tehnologiilor computerizate au permis crearea unui nou tip de modelare simulativ.
Modelul simulativ a activitii bancare reprezint o anex computerizat specializat,
care permite simularea activitii a unui astfel de obiect complex, cum ar fi: banca n
dinamic temporal (se folosete logica i legitile comportamentului bncii n timp), n
dinamic financiar (fluxurile mijloacelor bneti n conturi), n dinamic spaial
(transferarea tuturor tipurilor de resurse valorice n spaiu). n modelul respectiv, principala
metod tiinific de cercetare este experimentul de calcul orientat spre cercetri analitice i
proceduri de calcul n toate stadiile de modelare.
Un alt exemplu de model simulativ al activitii bncii este jocul strategic de afaceri
bancare UBS Administrarea Bncii. Obiectul modelrii acestuia reprezint o banc
activ cu un set complet de servicii, care se afl ntr-un mediu economic nestabil. Modelul
estimeaz starea financiar ipotetic a unei bncii virtuale; starea curent a economiei a
rii; prezice dezvoltarea situaiei n perspectiv de lung durat i formeaz planul strategic
de dezvoltare pe o perioad corespunztoare de timp. Efectund planificarea operaiunilor
curente i realizndu-le n modelul simulativ, se face o ncercare de atingere a indicatorilor
planificai ai activitii bancare. n baza drii de seam a modelului se efectueaz analiza
deciziilor adoptate, care reprezint baza unor corecii posibile a scopurilor managementului.
Modelarea multipl a planificrii curente a ntregii totaliti de operaiuni ale bncii
universale permite de a elabora o abordare sistemic n luarea deciziilor administrative, ceea
ce, fr ndoial, mbuntete calitatea managementului unei bnci comerciale concrete.
Cele importante agenii de informaie din lume, precum Reuters, Bloomberg, etc. ofer
un spectru larg de instrumente pentru analiza tehnic a informaiei financiare pentru alctuirea prognozelor dezvoltrii pieelor monetare, pieelor valorilor mobiliare n perspectiv
307
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
BIBLIOGRAFIE:
Bernanke B., Woodford M., Inflation forecasts and monetary policy, Journal of Money,
Credit and Banking nr. 29, 1997, p. 653-684.
Cuhal R., Modeling and Forecasting the Monthly Inflation Rate in the Republic of
Moldova. Lucrrile tiinifice ale Simpozionului Internaional Universitaria ROPET
2002, 17-19 octombrie 2002, Vol. 5 Management, Finane i Contabilitate,
Universitatea din Petroani, Petroani, 2002, p.66-72.
Cuhal R., Lanalyse des methodes de projections de loffre, de la demande et des prix.
Revue Economie contemporaine, Centre dEtudes et Recherches en Macroeconomie et
Finance Internationale (CERMAFI), Vol.11, nr. 4, 2002, Paris, France, p.705-722.
Fernandez-Rodriguez F., Sasvilla-Rivero S., Andrada-Felix J., Exchange rate forecast with
simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS. International Journal of
Forecasting 15, 1999, p.383-392.
McKenzie D., Power transformation anf forecasting the magnitude of price changes.
International Journal of Forecasting 15, 1999, p.49-55.
Murphy A., Neil B., Costs of Banking Activities : Interactions Between Risk and
Operating Costs : A comment, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1972, p. 614- 615.
Newman P., Ysidro F., Edgeworth L., The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics,
ed. J. Eatwell, P. Newman and M. Milgate, London: Macmillan, 1987, Vol. 2, p. 85-98.
Porter R. C., A model of Bank Portfolio Selection, Cowles Foundation Paper nr. 168,
Reprinted from Yale Economic Essays, 1 (2) , 1961., p.323- 359.
Kane E., Burton M., Bank Portfolio Allocation, Deposit Variability and the Availability
Doctrine, Quarterly Journal of Economics , Vol. 79, No.1 ( Feb. 1965), p. 113- 134.
308
309
Informaii
Sursele recomandate
Legislaia n baza creia entitatea i desfoar ac- Monitorul Oficial, LEX, baza de date a
tivitatea, reglementrile i structura organizatoric.
entitii de pe INTERNET, norme, incluznd
regulile interne
Obiectivele entitii i factorii care pot influena Legea bugetului de stat (pentru programele
modul de ndeplinire a acestora.
bugetare), discuii cu conducerea entitii.
Dac alte instituii publice raporteaz entitii sau Legislaie i alte reglementri n vigoare.
invers i dac entitatea trebuie s obin aprobri
pentru efectuarea anumitor categorii de cheltuieli sau
pentru diverse aciuni.
Veniturile ncasate, cheltuielile efectuate i activele Bugetul de stat, bugetele locale, situaiile
financiare din anul precedent .
deinute de entitate.
Modificrile semnificative ale legislaiei, obiectivelor, Bugetul de stat, bugetele locale, situaiile
cadrul de raportare a veniturilor, cheltuielilor sau realizate pe parcursul anului auditat.
activelor financiare din anul curent i cel precedent.
Planul de activitate i rapoartele auditului intern.
Infirmaii/datele entitii auditate
Diverse aspecte ale auditului efectuat
n anul ,,Dosarul curent din anul precedent
precedent.
procent mai sczut din interval dac consider c suma erorilor nu poate fi prevzut. De
menionat c trebuie s se indice n documentele de lucru motivaia care a stat la baza
estimrii erorilor i a calculrii preciziei.
La etapa de planificare n vederea adoptrii unei abordri corespunztoare urmeaz s
se defineasc clar ,,categoriile de operaiuni economice care fac obiectul controalelor
interne i evalurii riscurilor. De obicei, se mparte situaiile financiare pe categorii innd
cont de modul n care informaiile sunt prezentate n acestea. Dac n mod excepional, se
intenioneaz s se auditeze anumite operaiuni, care nu se regsesc n informaiile oferite de
situaiile financiare, se va indica motivele n documentele de lucru.
Auditorul utilizeaz raionamentul profesional pentru stabilirea categoriilor de
operaiuni care vor fi examinate ncercnd s gseasc un echilibru ntre a defini prea puine
categorii de operaiuni (ceea ce ar presupune o abordare necorespunztoare a auditului) sau
prea multe categorii de operaiuni (ceea ce ar putea fi ineficient).
Auditorul identific i evalueaz riscurile pentru fiecare categorie de operaiuni
economice. Evaluarea riscurilor, stabilirea nivelului materialitii i estimarea erorilor, de
ctre auditori, determin volumul activitii de audit. Identificarea riscurilor specifice l
ajut pe auditor la selectarea testelor de audit, care vor fi orientate n special ctre
problemele cele mai importante.
La planificarea auditului, se utilizeaz un model al riscului alctuit din patru
componente: riscul inerent, riscul de control, riscul de nedetectare i riscul de audit.
Riscul inerent reprezint susceptibilitatea ca o categorie de operaiuni s conin erori,
care pot fi materiale, n mod individual, sau atunci cnd sunt cumulate cu erori din alte
categorii de operaiuni, presupunnd c nu au existat controale interne.
Riscul de control constituie riscul ca o eroare material, care ar putea aparea ntr-o
categorie de operaiuni, n mod individual sau cumulat cu erori din alte categorii de
operaiuni, s nu poat fi prevenit, detectat, sau corectat n timp util de controalele
interne ale entitii.
Riscul de nedetectare reprezint riscul ca procedurile efectuate de auditor s nu
detecteze erorile care exist ntr-o categorie de operaiuni i care pot fi materiale n mod
individual sau atunci cnd sunt cumulate cu erori din alte categorii de operaiuni.
Riscul de audit, constituie riscul pe care auditorul este dispus s i-l asume prin
emiterea unei opinii incorecte asupra unui set de situaii financiare.
Pentru a obine probele necesare atingerii obiectivului auditului se va utiliza
combinaia diferitelor tipuri de teste de audit.
n termeni generali, obiectivele unui audit sunt:
Colectarea probelor de audit suficiente, relevante i de ncredere care s susin o
opinie asupra situaiilor financiare;
Evaluarea acurateei i a integralitii situaiilor financiare privind activitatea;
Obinerea asigurrii c, situaiile financiare raportate au fost ntocmite i prezentate corect;
Obinerea asigurrii c operaiunile care susin situaiile financiare sunt legale i
conforme prevederilor regulamentare .n scopul stabilirii obiectivelor de audit i a modului
n care acestea vor fi ndeplinite se va ntocmi planul de audit. Planul de audit constituie un
instrument prin care se monitorizeaz progresele realizate i se promoveaz att calitatea ct
i profesionalismul activitii de audit. De regul, planul de audit este redactat urmrind
dezvoltarea urmtoarelor titluri:
Prezentare general (Background) - (informaii despre entitatea auditat);
Materialitate (nivelul general al materialitii pe care l stabilete auditorul i
precizarea oricror excepii cnd este cazul;
311
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ABSTRACT. Financial stability is one of the macroeconomic stability pillars and creates the
preconditions for economic growth and development of any state. The implementation and tools for
financial stability depends largely on its implementation forms, specific economic conditions of a
state, potential growth, monetary policy and exchange rate regime promoted by a central bank. In
this respect, this article is aimed to find some solutions on implementing financial stability by
comparative analysis with other countries.
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2. Blinder A.S. Its Broke, Lets Fix It: Rethinking Financial Regulation // International
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Economy // Review of International Economics.2008.Vol.16, N5. P.971-989.
16. Lane P., Milesi-Ferretti G.M. The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real
Exchange Rates // Review of Economics and Statistics. 2004. Vol.86, N4. P.841-857.
17. Lartey E. Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Study of Sub-Saharan Africa
// Journal of International Trade & Economic Development. 2007. Vol. 16, N3. P.337-357.
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Economic Growth in the Aftermath of Civil Wars // World Bank Economic Review. 2008.
Vol.22, N1.P. 113-140.
19. Hussain M., Berg A., Aiyar S. The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy
Lessons from Resent Experience // Review of Development Economics. 2009. Vol.13, N3.
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Responses // IMF Working Paper. 1999.N 17.
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ABSTRACT. Today, with large flows of foreign currency from abroad by individuals, there
are questions of its proper use. Due to the fact that all foreign exchange transactions in accordance
with the law must be made through banks, it is necessary to develop and improve the services
offered by banks to attract this foreign currency and use it to the needs of the economy and generate
additional revenues by banks.
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ABSTRACT. The primary objective of any central bank is to achieve and maintain price stability,
which stems from its special functions of money issue. The economic and financial crises going back
two decades, outlines the necessity of new approaches for the central banks' strategies. Thus, while
maintaining price stability, there is an urgent need to promote policies that stabilize and maintain
financial stability, which can lead adjacent to the growth and economic development of countries.
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:
Schinasi, G.J. Safeguarding financial stability: theory and practice.- Washington, D.C.:
International Monetary Fund, 2005.P.311.
Ferguson, R.W. Should Financial Stability Be An Explicit Central Bank Objective?/
Conference on Challenges to Central Banking from Globalized Financial Markets,
International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., 17 September 2002.
Foot M., (2003), What is financial stability and how do we get it?
Mishkin, F. Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective. NBER,
Working Papers, No.56, 1996, p.12-24.
http:// www.bankofengland.co.uk; http:// www.bof.fi; http:// www.riksbank.com; http://
www.nationalbank.kz.
European Union. Consolidated versions of the Treaty on European Union and of the Treaty
establishing the European Community / http: // www.ecb.europa.eu /ecb/.
Haan, J., Oosterloo, S. Transparency and accountability of central banks in theie role of
financial stability supervisor in OECD countries // European Journal of Law and Economics.
2006. Vol.22 (3 ), P. 255-271.
, , ULIM
ABSTRACT. Banking risks as the object of research is not only famous modern society. Their
importance in the regulation of banking activities researchers noted in the XVIII and XIX vv. Modern
society in increasing competition combat attention to bank risk increases. Banks are increasingly take
an aggressive stance towards each other, conduct more risky operations and transactions. Idea of
prevention and risk reduction are becoming more demand as banking science and practice.
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4. Demirguc-KuntA., Detragiache E. The determinants of banking crisis in developing and
developed countries. -: IMF Staff Papers, 1, 1998.
345