The Fermi Paradox PDF

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The Fermi
Paradox
Everyone feels something when theyre in
a really good starry place on a really good
starry night and they look up and see this:
Some people stick with the traditional,

feeling struck by the epic beauty or blown
away by the insane scale of the universe.
Personally, I go for the old existential
meltdown followed by acting weird for the
next half hour. But everyone feels
something.
Physicist Enrico Fermi felt something
tooWhere is everybody?
________________
A really starry sky seems vastbut all

were looking at is our very local
neighborhood. On the very best nights,
we can see up to about 2,500 stars
(roughly one hundred-millionth of the
stars in our galaxy), and almost all of
them are less than 1,000 light years away
from us (or 1% of the diameter of the
Milky Way). So what were really looking
at is this:
converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
When confronted with the topic of stars

and galaxies, a question that tantalizes
most humans is, Is there other intelligent
life out there? Lets put some numbers to
it (if you dont like numbers, just read the
bold)
As many stars as there are in our galaxy
(100 400 billion), there are roughly an
equal number of galaxies in the
observable universeso for every star in
the colossal Milky Way, theres a whole
galaxy out there. All together, that comes
out to the typically quoted range of
between 1022 and 1024 total stars in
the universe, which means that for
every grain of sand on Earth, there are
10,000 stars out there.
The science world isnt in total agreement
about what percentage of those stars are
sun-like (similar to our sun in size,
temperature, and luminosity)opinions
typically range from 5% to 20%. Going
with the most conservative side of that
(5%), and the lower end for the number
of total stars (1022), gives us 500
quintillion, or 500 billion billion sunlike stars.
Theres also a debate over what
percentage of those sun-like stars might
be orbited by an Earth-like planet (one
with similar temperature conditions that
could have liquid water and potentially
support life similar to that on Earth).
Some say its as high as 50%, but lets go
with the more conservative 22% that
came out of a recent PNAS study. That
suggests that theres a potentiallyhabitable Earth-like planet orbiting at least
1% of the total stars in the universea
total of 100 billion billion Earth-like
planets.
So there are 100 Earth-like planets for

every grain of sand in the world. Think
about that next time youre on the beach.
Moving forward, we have no choice but to
get completely speculative. Lets imagine
that after billions of years in existence,
1% of Earth-like planets develop life (if
thats true, every grain of sand would
represent one planet with life on it). And
imagine that on 1% of those planets, the
life advances to an intelligent level like it
did here on Earth. That would mean there
were 10 quadrillion, or 10 million
billion intelligent civilizations in the
observable universe.
Moving back to just our galaxy, and doing
the same math on the lowest estimate for
stars in the Milky Way (100 billion), wed
estimate that there are 1 billion Earthlike planets and 100,000 intelligent
civilizations in our galaxy. [1]
SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial
Intelligence) is an organization dedicated
to listening for signals from other
intelligent life. If were right that there are
100,000 or more intelligent civilizations in
our galaxy, and even a fraction of them
are sending out radio waves or laser
beams or other modes of attempting to
contact others, shouldnt SETIs satellite
array pick up all kinds of signals?
But it hasnt. Not one. Ever.
Where is everybody?
It gets stranger. Our sun is relatively
young in the lifespan of the universe.
There are far older stars with far older
Earth-like planets, which should in theory
mean far more advanced civilizations than
our own. As an example, lets compare
our 4.54 billion-year-old Earth to a
hypothetical 8 billion-year-old Planet X.
If Planet X has a similar story to Earth,

lets look at where their civilization would
be today (the orange is a reference to

show how long these timelines really are):
The technology and knowledge of a

civilization only 1,000 years ahead of us
could be as shocking to us as our world
would be to a medieval person. A
civilization 1 million years ahead of us
might be as incomprehensible to us as
human culture is to chimpanzees. And
Planet X is 3.4 billion years ahead of us
Theres something called The Kardashev
Scale, which helps us group intelligent
civilizations into three broad categories by
the amount of energy they use:
A Type I Civilization has the ability to

use all of the energy on their planet.
Were not quite a Type I Civilization, but
were close (Carl Sagan created a formula
for this scale which puts us at a Type 0.7
Civilization).
A Type II Civilization can harness all

of the energy of their host star. Our
feeble Type I brains can hardly imagine
how someone would do this, but weve
tried our best, imagining things like a
Dyson Sphere.
A Type III Civilization blows the

other two away, accessing power
comparable to that of the entire Milky
Way galaxy.
Way galaxy.
If this level of advancement sounds hard
to believe, remember Planet X above and
their 3.4 billion years of further
development (about half a million times
as long as the human race has been
around). If a civilization on Planet X were
similar to ours and were able to survive
all the way to Type III level, the natural
assumption is that theyd probably have
mastered inter-stellar travel by now,
possibly even colonizing the entire galaxy.
One hypothesis as to how galactic
colonization could happen is by creating
machinery that can travel to other planets,
spend 500 years or so self-replicating
using the raw materials on their new
planet, and then send two replicas off to
do the same thing. Even without traveling
anywhere near the speed of light, this
process would colonize the whole galaxy
in 3.75 million years, a relative blink of an
eye when talking in the scale of billions of
years:
Source: J. Schombert, U. Oregon
Continuing to speculate, if 1% of
intelligent life survives long enough to
become a potentially galaxy-colonizing
Type III Civilization, our calculations
above suggest that there should be at
least 1,000 Type III Civilizations in our

galaxy aloneand given the power of
such a civilization, their presence would
likely be pretty noticeable. And yet, we
see nothing, hear nothing, and were
visited by no one.
So where is
everybody?
_____________________
Welcome to the Fermi Paradox.

We have no answer to the Fermi Paradox
the best we can do is possible
explanations. And if you ask ten different
scientists what their hunch is about the
correct one, youll get ten different
answers. You know when you hear about
humans of the past debating whether the
Earth was round or if the sun revolved
around the Earth or thinking that lightning
happened because of Zeus, and they seem
so primitive and in the dark? Thats about
where we are with this topic.
In taking a look at some of the mostdiscussed possible explanations for the
Fermi Paradox, lets divide them into two
broad categoriesthose explanations
which assume that theres no sign of Type
II and Type III Civilizations because there
are none of them out there, and those
which assume theyre out there and were
not seeing or hearing anything for other
reasons:
Explanation Group 1:
There are no signs of
higher (Type II and
III) civilizations
because there are no
higher civilizations in
existence.
Those who subscribe to Group 1
explanations point to something called the
non-exclusivity problem, which rebuffs

any theory that says, There are higher
civilizations, but none of them have made
any kind of contact with us because they
all _____. Group 1 people look at the
math, which says there should be so
many thousands (or millions) of higher
civilizations, that at least one of them
would be an exception to the rule. Even if
a theory held for 99.99% of higher
civilizations, the other .001% would
behave differently and wed become
aware of their existence.
Therefore, say Group 1 explanations, it
must be that there are no super-advanced
civilizations. And since the math suggests
that there are thousands of them just in
our own galaxy, something else must be
going on.
This something else is called The Great
Filter.
The Great Filter theory says that at some
point from pre-life to Type III intelligence,
theres a wall that all or nearly all attempts
at life hit. Theres some stage in that long
evolutionary process that is extremely
unlikely or impossible for life to get
beyond. That stage is The Great Filter.
If this theory is true, the big question is,

Where in the timeline does the Great Filter
occur?
It turns out that when it comes to the fate
of humankind, this question is very
important. Depending on where The
Great Filter occurs, were left with three
possible realities: Were rare, were
first, or were fucked.
1. Were Rare (The Great

Filter is Behind Us)

One hope we have is that The Great Filter
is behind uswe managed to surpass it,
which would mean its extremely rare for
life to make it to our level of intelligence.
The diagram below shows only two
species making it past, and were one of
them.
This scenario would explain why there are

no Type III Civilizationsbut it would also
mean that we could be one of the few
exceptions now that weve made it this far.
It would mean we have hope. On the
surface, this sounds a bit like people 500
years ago suggesting that the Earth is the
center of the universeit implies that
were special. However, something
scientists call observation selection effect
says that anyone who is pondering their
own rarity is inherently part of an
intelligent life success storyand
whether theyre actually rare or quite
common, the thoughts they ponder and
conclusions they draw will be identical.
This forces us to admit that being special
is at least a possibility.
And if we are special, when exactly did we
become speciali.e. which step did we
surpass that almost everyone else gets
stuck on?
One possibility: The Great Filter
could be at the very beginningit
might be incredibly unusual for life
to begin at all. This is a candidate
because it took about a billion years of
Earths existence to finally happen, and
because we have tried extensively to
replicate that event in labs and have never
been able to do it. If this is indeed The
Great Filter, it would mean that not only is
there no intelligent life out there, there
may be no other life at all.
Another possibility: The Great Filter
could be the jump from the simple
prokaryote cell to the complex
eukaryote cell. After prokaryotes came
into being, they remained that way for

almost two billion years before making
the evolutionary jump to being complex
and having a nucleus. If this is The Great
Filter, it would mean the universe is
teeming with simple prokaryote cells and
almost nothing beyond that.
There are a number of other possibilities
some even think the most recent leap
weve made to our current intelligence is a
Great Filter candidate. While the leap from
semi-intelligent life (chimps) to intelligent
life (humans) doesnt at first seem like a
miraculous step, Steven Pinker rejects the
idea of an inevitable climb upward of
evolution: Since evolution does not strive
for a goal but just happens, it uses the
adaptation most useful for a given
ecological niche, and the fact that, on
Earth, this led to technological intelligence
only once so far may suggest that this
outcome of natural selection is rare and
hence by no means a certain development
of the evolution of a tree of life.
Most leaps do not qualify as Great Filter
candidates. Any possible Great Filter must
be a one-in-a-billion type thing where one
or more total freak occurrences need to
happen to provide a crazy exceptionfor
that reason, something like the jump from
single-cell to multi-cellular life is ruled
out, because it has occurred as many as
46 times, in isolated incidents, just on this
planet alone. For the same reason, if we
were to find a fossilized eukaryote cell on
Mars, it would rule the above simple-tocomplex cell leap out as a possible Great
Filter (as well as anything before that
point on the evolutionary chain)because
if it happened on both Earth and Mars, its
clearly not a one-in-a-billion freak
occurrence.
If we are indeed rare, it could be because
of a fluky biological event, but it also
could be attributed to what is called the
Rare Earth Hypothesis, which suggests
that though there may be many Earth-like
planets, the particular conditions on Earth
whether related to the specifics of this
solar system, its relationship with the
moon (a moon that large is unusual for
such a small planet and contributes to our
particular weather and ocean conditions),
or something about the planet itselfare

exceptionally friendly to life.
2. Were the First
For Group 1 Thinkers, if the Great Filter is

not behind us, the one hope we have is
that conditions in the universe are just
recently, for the first time since the Big
Bang, reaching a place that would allow
intelligent life to develop. In that case, we
and many other species may be on our
way to super-intelligence, and it simply
hasnt happened yet. We happen to be
here at the right time to become one of
the first super-intelligent civilizations.
One example of a phenomenon that could
make this realistic is the prevalence of
gamma-ray bursts, insanely huge
explosions that weve observed in distant
galaxies. In the same way that it took the
early Earth a few hundred million years
before the asteroids and volcanoes died
down and life became possible, it could
be that the first chunk of the universes
existence was full of cataclysmic events
like gamma-ray bursts that would
incinerate everything nearby from time to
time and prevent any life from developing
past a certain stage. Now, perhaps, were
in the midst of an astrobiological phase
transition and this is the first time any life
has been able to evolve for this long,
uninterrupted.
3. Were Fucked (The Great

Filter is Ahead of Us)
If were neither rare nor early, Group 1

thinkers conclude that The Great Filter
must be in our future. This would apply

that life regularly evolves to where we
are, but that something prevents life from
going much further and reaching high
intelligence in almost all casesand were
unlikely to be an exception.
One possible future Great Filter is a
regularly-occurring cataclysmic natural
event, like the above-mentioned gammaray bursts, except theyre unfortunately
not done yet and its just a matter of time
before all life on Earth is suddenly wiped
out by one. Another candidate is the
possible inevitability that nearly all
intelligent civilizations end up destroying
themselves once a certain level of
technology is reached.
This is why Oxford University philosopher
Nick Bostrom says that no news is good
news. The discovery of even simple life
on Mars would be devastating, because it
would cut out a number of potential Great
Filters behind us. And if we were to find
fossilized complex life on Mars, Bostrom
says it would be by far the worst news
ever printed on a newspaper cover,
because it would mean The Great Filter is
almost definitely ahead of usultimately
dooming the species. Bostrom believes
that when it comes to The Fermi Paradox,
the silence of the night sky is golden.
Explanation Group 2:
Type II and III
intelligent
civilizations are out
thereand there are
logical reasons why
we might not have
heard from them.
Group 2 explanations get rid of any
notion that were rare or special or the
first at anythingon the contrary, they
believe in the Mediocrity Principle, whose
starting point is that there is nothing
unusual or rare about our galaxy, solar
system, planet, or level of intelligence,
until evidence proves otherwise. Theyre

also much less quick to assume that the
lack of evidence of higher intelligence
beings is evidence of their nonexistence
emphasizing the fact that our search for
signals stretches only about 100 light
years away from us (0.1% across the
galaxy) and has only been going on for
under a century, a tiny amount of time.
Group 2 thinkers have come up with a
large array of possible explanations for
the Fermi Paradox. Here are 10 of the
most discussed:
Possibility 1) Super-intelligent life
could very well have already visited
Earth, but before we were here. In
the scheme of things, sentient humans
have only been around for about 50,000
years, a little blip of time. If contact
happened before then, it might have
made some ducks flip out and run into
the water and thats it. Further, recorded
history only goes back 5,500 yearsa
group of ancient hunter-gatherer tribes
may have experienced some crazy alien
shit, but they had no good way to tell
anyone in the future about it.
Possibility 2) The galaxy has been
colonized, but we just live in some
desolate rural area of the galaxy.
The Americas may have been colonized
by Europeans long before anyone in a
small Inuit tribe in far northern Canada
realized it had happened. There could be
an urbanization component to the
interstellar dwellings of higher species, in
which all the neighboring solar systems in
a certain area are colonized and in
communication, and it would be
impractical and purposeless for anyone to
deal with coming all the way out to the
random part of the spiral where we live.
Possibility 3) The entire concept of
physical colonization is a hilariously
backward concept to a more
advanced species. Remember the
picture of the Type II Civilization above
with the sphere around their star? With all
that energy, they might have created a
perfect environment for themselves that
satisfies their every need. They might
have hyper-advanced ways of reducing
their need for resources and zero interest
in leaving their happy utopia to explore
the cold, empty, undeveloped universe.
An even more advanced civilization might

view the entire physical world as a
horribly primitive place, having long ago
conquered their own biology and
uploaded their brains to a virtual reality,
eternal-life paradise. Living in the physical
world of biology, mortality, wants, and
needs might seem to them the way we
view primitive ocean species living in the
frigid, dark sea. FYI, thinking about
another life form having bested mortality
makes me incredibly jealous and upset.
Possibility 4) There are scary
predator civilizations out there, and
most intelligent life knows better
than to broadcast any outgoing
signals and advertise their location.
This is an unpleasant concept and would
help explain the lack of any signals being
received by the SETI satellites. It also
means that we might be the super naive
newbies who are being unbelievably
stupid and risky by ever broadcasting
outward signals. Theres a debate going
on currently about whether we should
engage in METI (Messaging to
Extraterrestrial Intelligencethe reverse
of SETI, which only listens) or not, and
most people say we should not. Stephen
Hawking warns, If aliens visit us, the
outcome would be much as when
Columbus landed in America, which didnt
turn out well for the Native Americans.
Even Carl Sagan (a general believer that
any civilization advanced enough for
interstellar travel would be altruistic, not
hostile) called the practice of METI
deeply unwise and immature, and
recommended that the newest children in
a strange and uncertain cosmos should
listen quietly for a long time, patiently
learning about the universe and
comparing notes, before shouting into an
unknown jungle that we do not
understand. Scary. [2]
Possibility 5) Theres one and only
one instance of higher-intelligent
lifea superpredator civilization
(kind of like humans are here on
Earth)who is far more advanced
than everyone else and keeps it that
way by exterminating any
intelligent civilization once they get
past a certain level. This would suck.
The way it might work is that its an
inefficient use of resources to exterminate

all emerging intelligences, maybe because
most die out on their own. But past a
certain point, the super beings make their
movebecause to them, an emerging
intelligent species becomes like a virus as
it starts to grow and spread. This theory
suggests that whoever was the first in the
galaxy to reach intelligence won, and now
no one else has a chance. This would
explain the lack of activity out there
because it would keep the number of
super-intelligent civilizations to just one.
Possibility 6) Theres plenty of
activity and noise out there, but our
technology is too primitive and
were listening for the wrong things.
Like walking into a modern-day office
building, turning on a walkie-talkie, and
when you hear no activity (which of
course you wouldnt hear because
everyones texting, not using walkietalkies), determining that the building
must be empty. Or maybe, as Carl Sagan
has pointed out, it could be that our
minds work exponentially faster or slower
than another form of intelligence out
theree.g. it takes them 12 years to say
Hello, and when we hear that
communication, it just sounds like white
noise to us.
Possibility 7) We are receiving
contact from other intelligent life,
but the government is hiding it. This
is an idiotic theory, but I had to mention it
because its talked about so much.
Possibility 8) Higher civilizations are
aware of us and observing us but
concealing themselves from us (AKA
the Zoo Hypothesis). As far as we
know, super-intelligent civilizations exist
in a tightly-regulated galaxy, and our
Earth is treated like part of a vast and
protected national park, with a strict Look
but dont touch rule for planets like ours.
We wouldnt be aware of them, because if
a far smarter species wanted to observe
us, it would know how to easily do so
without us noticing. Maybe theres a rule
similar to the Star Treks Prime Directive
which prohibits super-intelligent beings
from making any open contact with lesser
species like us or revealing themselves in
any way, until the lesser species has
reached a certain level of intelligence.

Possibility 9) Higher civilizations are
here, all around us, but were too
primitive to perceive them. Michio
Kaku sums it up like this:
Lets say we have an ant hill in the middle

of the forest. And right next to the ant
hill, theyre building a ten-lane superhighway. And the question is Would the
ants be able to understand what a tenlane super-highway is? Would the ants be
able to understand the technology and the
intentions of the beings building the
highway next to them?
So its not that we cant pick up the signals
from Planet X using our technology, its
that we cant even comprehend what the
beings from Planet X are or what theyre
trying to do. Its so beyond us that even if
they really wanted to enlighten us, it
would be like trying to teach ants about
the internet.
Along those lines, this may also be an
answer to Well if there are so many fancy
Type III Civilizations, why havent they
contacted us yet? To answer that, lets
ask ourselveswhen Pizarro made his
way into Peru, did he stop for a while at
an anthill to try to communicate? Was he
magnanimous, trying to help the ants in
the anthill? Did he become hostile and
slow his original mission down in order to
smash the anthill apart? Or was the anthill
of complete and utter and eternal
irrelevance to Pizarro? That might be our
situation here.
Possibility 10) Were completely
wrong about our reality. There are a
lot of ways we could just be totally off
with everything we think. The universe
might appear one way and be something
else entirely, like a hologram. Or maybe
were the aliens and we were planted here
as an experiment or as a form of fertilizer.
Theres even a chance that were all part
of a computer simulation by some
researcher from another world, and other
forms of life simply werent programmed
into the simulation. [3]
________________
As we continue along with our possiblyfutile search for extraterrestrial

intelligence, Im not really sure what Im
rooting for. Frankly, learning either that
were officially alone in the universe or
that were officially joined by others would
be creepy, which is a theme with all of the
surreal storylines listed above whatever
the truth actually is, its mindblowing.
Beyond its shocking science fiction
component, The Fermi Paradox also
leaves me with a deep humbling. Not just
the normal Oh yeah, Im microscopic and
my existence lasts for three seconds
humbling that thinking about the universe
always triggers. The Fermi Paradox brings
out a sharper, more personal humbling,
one that can only happen after spending
hours of research hearing your species
most renowned scientists present insane
theories, change their minds again and
again, and wildly contradict each other
reminding us that future generations
will look at us in the same way we see the
ancient people who were sure that the
stars were the underside of the dome of
heaven, and theyll think Wow they really
had no idea what was going on.
Compounding all of this is the blow to our
species self-esteem that comes with all of
this talk about Type II and III
Civilizations. Here on Earth, were the king
of our little castle, proud ruler of the huge
group of imbeciles who share the planet
with us. And in this bubble with no
competition and no one to judge us, its
rare that were ever confronted with the
concept of being a dramatically inferior
species to anyone. But after spending a lot
of time with Type II and III Civilizations
over the past week, our power and pride
are seeming a bit David Brent-esque.
That said, given that my normal outlook
is that humanity is a lonely orphan on a
tiny rock in the middle of a desolate
universe, the humbling fact that were
probably not as smart as we think we are,
and the possibility that a lot of what were
sure about might be wrong, sounds
wonderful. It opens the door just a crack
that maybe, just maybe, there might be
more to the story than we realize.
To humble you further:

Putting Time In Perspective
4 Mind-Blowing Things About Stars
Sources:
PNAS: Prevalence of Earth-size planets
orbiting Sun-like stars
SETI: The Drake Equation
NASA: Workshop Report on the Future of
Intelligence In The Cosmos
Cornell University Library: The Fermi
Paradox, Self-Replicating Probes, and the
Interstellar Transportation Bandwidth
NCBI: Astrobiological phase transition:
towards resolution of Fermis paradox
Andr Kukla: Extraterrestrials: A
Philosophical Perspective
Nick Bostrom: Where Are They?
Science Direct: Galactic gradients,
postbiological evolution and the apparent
failure of SETI
Nature: Simulations back up theory that
Universe is a hologram
Robin Hanson: The Great Filter Are We
Almost Past It?
John Dyson: Search for Artificial Stellar
Sources of Infrared Radiation
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67 comments
J.r. Moody Works at Contract Technical W riter

This is the greatest blog I've ever seen. I mean the w hole site in general, not
just this article. You are an incredible, eloquent w riter. You had to have spent
countless hours digesting this shitshow of know ledge just so you could
regurgitate it in a w ay that makes it magical as fuck even for someone w ho
know s like nothing about the subject. I read this this morning and I haven't been
able to get it out of my head all day. Thank you for w hat you do to Tuesdays.
Reply Like 32 Yesterday at 1:23am
Aleia Kim Student Financial Analyst at Auxiliaries and Activities Business Center
This is w hy I read this blog. This w as inspirational and mind blow ing and I'm
delighted. :D Thank you for such a w onderful w alk-through of the theoretical
underpinnings of the universe! :)
Reply Like 8 May 22 at 11:07am
James Echols Top Commenter Business Consultant
I find it interesting that none of those explanations bode w ell for humans.
I do think the author did miss one explanation. It's related to this one:
"Group 2, Possibility 5) Theres one and only one instance of higher-intelligent life
a superpredator civilization (kind of like humans are here on Earth)w ho is far
more advanced than everyone else and keeps it that w ay by exterminating any
intelligent civilization once they get past a certain level."
Call it Possibility 11) There is an instance of higher-intelligent life - a "superpolice"
civilization that keeps all other emerging intelligences in order, w hen the time
comes.
Think about this, it seems that the initial time to get from zero life to Type 1
takes a few billion years. But, the time to get from Type 1 to Type 3 could be
1000 years, or even less. That means that i
1000 years, or even less. That means that i

Reply Like 4 23 hours ago
Andy's Chest Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
The concept of helping "w hen the time comes" seems a little bit
unreasonable to me, if there is indeed a higher-intelligent life form w ho
intends to guide others to enlightenment and know s that w e are
here, they should have done so by now . If they are w aiting for us to
emerge by ourselves to a certain point as you put it they might as w ell
be observers and let us go alone the w hole w ay, as w as the possibility
8. Contacting us w hen w e are already developed enough is not
helping us to enlightenment, and could easily be encompassed on
possibility 8 too as the Prime Directive only prohibits super-intelligent
beings from making open contact w ith lesser species UNTIL the lesser
species has reached a certain level of intelligence. Anyw ay I just
w anted to point to you that w hat you w rote sounded like another
w ay of describing the already noticed possibility 8) Higher civilizations
are aw are of us and observing us but concealing themselves from us.
Reply Like 19 hours ago
James Echols Top Commenter
HENRYSTONEMUSIC
Good point, how ever, if you look at the relative technology levels, it
seems that the likelihood that any post Type 3 civilization does not
know about other emerging intelligences is fairly unlikely. Perhaps they
have not mapped the entire universe, but their nearby galaxies seem
reasonable. That means, if they are out there, they are w atching us.
Andy's Chest Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Yes, I do agree that if they are out there, they are w atching us. Our
state of the art must be laughable to them.
View 2 more
Charles Carmean Saint Paul, Minnesota
I have one to add. It is easier to travel betw een universes in a multiverse than to
do interstellar travel w hich is exceedingly slow .
high level they discover how to open up a door to an infinate higher plane of
reality, so they check out of the boring universe here.
Reply Like 4 May 22 at 3:19pm
Maro Pisani
subscribers
great idea, and above all, outside the box!!
Tom Ajdari Top Commenter
Maro Pisani actly, highly cooled quantum copmuter AGIs w ould have
w ave-functions as large as clusters of galaxies, but the energy
assotiated w ith them per 1m^3 w ould be almost zero and any
attempt to bring it up w ould harm the computers like nothing else
Jacob Levinson Davenport, Iow a
It might not necessarily be a filter, it may be a w all.
impossibility for Type 3's to exist. It could be that there are billions of species all at
Type 1.6. Consider this, the hardest material w e have ever discovered man made
or otherw ise is Diamond. This implies one of tw o things, 1. this is the hardest
material that is possible to exist, or 2. w e haven't discovered the hardest possible
material. Either w ay, this implies that there is a hardest possible material.
limits do exist in the universe. I am not saying w e have found any of them, but
w hat if harnessing all of the pow er of the sun is impossible?
there are infinite w ays to do things, but in reality there isn't.
finite number of subatomic particles in the observable universe, and as such
there... See More
Ben Lee Web Developer at Vox Media, Inc
This is all tangential to your point, but regarding, "the hardest
material...is diamond". Actually that w as only true until about 2004,
w hen they synthesized "graphine", a material much harder than
diamond. Graphine is very promising and may completely replace silicon
as the substrate for electric circuits, resulting in much smaller and
much more pow erful computers. It also has a number of physical
engineering applications. But graphine is not even the hardest... A few
years ago they managed to synthesize small chains of "carbyne", a
material many times strong than graphine (w hich, remember, is many
times strong than diamond).
Doc Leroc
Ben Lee - As Jacob said, it's not about w hether or not diamond is the
hardest material (and he admits that he didn't know w hether it w as or
not). His point w as that even if w e find harder and harder materials
(such as graphine and carbyne and anything beyond that), one day
w e might not be able to make something harder.
there potentially being physical limits w hich there is no possible w ay to
surpass. Perhaps, theoretically, there w as a w ay to harness the pow er
of a star, but you w ould need something harder than carbyne to do it.
Then consider if carbyne w as the physical limit.
barrier, not a filter, as it w ould be impossible to get past it.
it's right, but it is a theory w hich, if correct, w ould answ er the
question of w hy w e haven't met anything else out there.
Reply Like about an hour ago
Ben Lee Web Developer at Vox Media, Inc
Doc Leroc Perhaps you missed the part w here I said, "This is all
tangential to your point"?
I understood his point perfectly, and I w asn't disputing it. I w as just
pointing out something tangential and interesting.
Reply Like 16 minutes ago
Richard B. West Top Commenter
Good thing I am stocked up on magazines and ammo... lol
Reply Like 3 May 22 at 9:08am
Henrique Ferreira University of So Paulo
Great story!
There's one player missing, though.
No, it's not a divine being (especially because, let's face it, a Type III intelligence
w ould be nothing short of divine for us ants....).
W here are Type II intelligent beings? If w e assume Group 2 of explanations (or
that there are other beings, older and more advanced than us, past the Great
Filter that Group 1 postulates), there should be Type II guys around.
As the jump from Type to Type is exponential, it is highly possible that Type III
beings are (almost) as divine to Type II beings as they w ould be to us. W hich
means Type II beings are either left alone or ignored too.
So, w here are those guys?
By the same arguments presented in Possibilities 1 to 10 in the article, they could
very w ell be avoiding us (for any reason, including the 'ethical' one presented
above and a less flattering one: fear of contagion), they could be as yet ignorant
of our existence or they could already be here (either hidden or - do I hear
'conspiracy'? - in direct contact w ith select governments).
Chendaddy Chen Top Commenter
I've alw ays been a subscriber to an idea that's a combination of Group 2,
Possibilities 3 & 9. That aliens might be all around us, but w e can't perceive them
not necessarily because they're so utterly advanced but because they're just so
utterly different than w hat w e're looking for.
We're looking for little green men w ith giant heads. W hat if they're digital
creatures? W hat if they exist and move on radio frequencies and light w aves?
W hat if they resemble Google more than they do any animal?
for example alein AGIs based on super-cooled atoms w ould have w ave
functions the size of galaxy clusters, yet the energy per 1m3 w ould be
faar les than eV and any attepmt at going classical w ould harm the
AGIs like a nuclear w ar....it might hurt to go classical
Yelena Keyzman Marketing Specialist at
This post fit nicely w ith my w eekly addiction to w atching Cosmos! I take it you're
w atching it too...
You know Neil Degrasse Tyson is doing a live screening of the final episode here in
DC at the NatGeo Museum next w eek and he's going to hang around and do a
little talk and Q&A... could you find a w ay to be there? It's sort of sold out but I
w ill drop my friend and give you the extra ticket if necessary. And even though its
technically a free event, I w ould totally pay money to w atch even a moments
w orth of intellectual interaction betw een you tw o!
And in case you can't make it, I'd like to thank you for inspiring me w ith some
great questions to ask him in your place!
And as alw ays, thanks for the mindblow ing w ords of w isdom! Keep it up!
Quentin Hardy Works at The New York Times
In "Coming of Age in the Milky Way" there's another explanation: Humans
In "Coming of Age in the Milky Way" there's another explanation: Humans

discovered space travel, nuclear w eapons, and genetic engineering at pretty
much the same time, in historic terms. If the technological capability to get off
the planet occurs at about the same time as the technological capability to
destroy it, there may be a lot of intelligent life that w ipes itself out before it gets
anyw here else.
Unlikely, as nuclear w ar or a virus w ould be unable to kill of humanity
right now . Cripple, but not kill. The only think that can do us right
now is AGI ad it itself w ould produce colonizers. Also.....the state of
gun rights in NYC is horrible. You should go Czech Rep. or Austria.
Everyone has the right to carry one.
Doc Leroc
Tom Ajdari perhaps Nuclear or Biological w arfare couldn't w ipe us out
right now , but Quentin referred to a future technology discovered at
the time w e are able to effectively leave the planet.
a w ay to effectively travel betw een stars w e also find a w ay to scour
the planet of life at the same time, there's a good chance a w arlike
species such as ourselves w ould be w iped out before being able to
colonize. The greatest leaps in technology for humankind have come
during times of w ar, w hich suggests that it is competition and conflict
w hich breeds invention. In all likelihood the most advanced species in
the universe w ould be the most aggressive, and most likely to develop
a w ay to w ipe themselves out. Sounds like a great filter to me.
Reply Like about an hour ago
Doc Leroc Yes, of course. But the question is/w hether if the
technology chooses to kill itself off. I think that the likelyhood of
survival for such technology is high. Obviously there are no bio- or
technological civlizations colonizing the universe, because w e w ould
have spotted them by now . In fact, it sounds as if those bio- and
techno- creatures are isolated by non-matter based AGIs
last stages of evolution everoyne chooses to go the non-matter based
AGI route. If there are civilizations out there, they are most likely AGIs.
I believe that AGIs fill every cubic cm of our universe and that they
don't become apparent because of energy/money problems..as I have
dscribed elesw here in this comment section.
Reply Like 57 minutes ago
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Maddy
May 22, 2014 at 1:43 pm - Reply
WOW! What a read! It's

shocking how much of what we consider
science fiction is actually real science too.
Please keep it up. I look foward to this
blog every week.
Nathanael
May 22, 2014 at 2:20 pm - Reply
And this, ladies & gentlemen,

is called "science". Make no mistake,
"science" IS the new religion.
Nic
May 22, 2014 at 9:33 pm - Reply
What? I dont get it What is

your point?
Alyssa
May 24, 2014 at 1:08 am Reply
Yeah, I cant tell if hes mocking

the whole article or what.
no
May 24, 2014 at 2:25 am - Reply
Unlike religion, its explicitly

clear that all of these possibilities are
just conjecture, and nobody is saying
that any of these options are
empirically-based, definite, or the
truth. Religion comes up far more
preposterous conjectures *and*
claims them to be absolute truths.
Thats a huge difference.
Bradley
May 22, 2014 at 2:34 pm - Reply
Hands down the most

fascinating thing I've read all year.
Beautifully done. I'm gonna need to walk
this one off for a while.
Toms Magalhes
May 22, 2014 at 2:50 pm - Reply
Very interesting as usual

nerds.
CC
May 22, 2014 at 2:54 pm - Reply
Great, now my goosebumps

are permanent.
Adam
May 22, 2014 at 3:06 pm - Reply
Don't forget about the 'Wow

Signal'.
Bill
May 22, 2014 at 3:12 pm - Reply
One completely unprofessional

theory I have has to do with both aliens
and the feasibility of faster-than-light
travel. If there were lots of alien
civilizations AND FTL travel was cheap
enough to be affordable by the top 0.5%
of a civilization, then we would been
visited by dumb or crazy representitives of
an alien race by now. Perhaps the
obnoxious kids of some alien billionaire
come to do the equivolent of TPing
Earth's lawn, or a crazed alien evangelist
out to bring we lowly humans the word of
some alien god.
Anonymous
May 22, 2014 at 5:00 pm - Reply
your humanizing a possible

alien race so so hard.
Jeroen
May 22, 2014 at 3:14 pm - Reply
Thanks very much for this

interesting read, Tim. Well worth the wait,
this post has truly boggled my mind. I
probably have to reread it to grasp the
implications completely. You excel at
putting facts in perspective.
Wait But Why
Author
May 22, 2014 at 8:10 pm - Reply
Thanks Jeroen and others

who enjoyed this one. This is
basically my favorite topic and has
been since I was threeand now that
I know a non-comedic, 4,500 word
post on science with almost no
drawings can apparently go over well,
I may dig into this kind of thing a bit
more in the future. How
delicious/upsetting is the universe.
cristeis
May 22, 2014 at 10:50 pm Reply
The Bunny Manifesto also shows

how delicious/ upsetting the
universe is.cloud bunny is just
as mind blowing as the idea of
super-intelligent life.
Mike
May 22, 2014 at 3:27 pm - Reply
Great post, best so far I think!

Jasmine
May 22, 2014 at 5:22 pm - Reply
I second this. Its truly

mindblowing and Id never have
looked it up or understood it if not for
this post!
Janna
May 22, 2014 at 5:11 pm - Reply
Ive been reading Wait But

Why since September 2013 and this is my
favorite yet. I had maybe 30 interesting
thoughts while I read this. You pick the
best post topics and present them so
perfectly. LOVE.
James
May 22, 2014 at 5:37 pm - Reply
This is a planet where the

most reprobate souls go for a final chance
Youre not allowed to know anything
and no communication with the outside is
allowed !
Damon
May 22, 2014 at 5:41 pm - Reply
Excellent recap!
Monika
May 22, 2014 at 5:41 pm - Reply
This post made me donate 50

dollars to WBW. I have no words to
express what I feel and think right now.
Then again, finding the right words to
express things is Tims specialty, not mine!
Keep up the amazing amazing AMAZING
job. Youre most definitely Type III
civilization.
Wait But Why
Author
May 22, 2014 at 8:11 pm - Reply
Hugely generous. Thank you!

jason marschner
May 22, 2014 at 5:49 pm - Reply
Read stephen baxters manifold

series. It covers this topic very well. aliens
existing but not what we thought (not
malevolant but they dont really care
about humans), the universe has a reset
button and a bunch of alien species know
this and are trying to fix it (over a period
of billions of years and multiple resets)
and another where there is life, but very
scattered and in small supply and the
universe moves toward a slow heat death.
isnt science cheery
Dennis
May 22, 2014 at 5:50 pm - Reply
Im rooting for Group 2

Possibility #8, where one alien who is in
charge of reading all blogs in English is
chuckling at this whole post until
he/she/they/it gets to the Group 2
Possibility #8 part of your post, and then
says Oh shit and has to push a big red
alien button because weve caught on, but
then his manager comes in and berates
him for the false alarm because plenty of
humans have postulated Group 2
Possibility #8 but theres no real way for
humans to actually know. Wouldnt want
him to get fired though, since it sounds
like this is a new gig for him.
Wait But Why
Author
May 22, 2014 at 8:15 pm - Reply
I thought about that and

even added in a note to a potential
researcher god in Possibility #10 just
in case. But now writing this, Im
annoyed with myself because my note

was a joke, and if he/she/it actually
does read this, I just wasted a huge
opportunity to ask about the
possibility of brain upload (my new
thing as of today, as well as
apparently being a religious person
for the first time as of today too).
Dennis
Actually, I spend a lot of time

worrying about brain upload
these days, but mostly in the
context of not understanding the
technology my future kids will be
using. Sort of like how looking
back Im bewildered that I was
allowed to be on AOL 2.0 and
chat with strangers, because my
parents didnt understand all the
horrors the internet could bring
to a child. Ill still be using
Facebook and my kids will be like
LOL DAD IS THE WORST but
not actually using words since
theyll be uploading it to the
ThinkCloud, though Im sure the
even using the word cloud will
be as funny as someone buying a
VHS tape today.
Then again Im probably
overestimating the speed of
technology, like most films and
books do. What are they trying to
do be accurate? Star Wars was
the smart one, by placing itself in
Possibility 1 or 2.
OK, now I am rooting for
Possibility 1 or 2, combined with
Possibility 8, combined with Star
Wars coincidentally being real,
and the real Han Solo watching
Star Wars and being happy that at
least Harrison Ford played him in
the movie. If youre going to ask
about brain upload please ask
Han what he thinks about the
upcoming movies.
Brandon
May 22, 2014 at 6:03 pm - Reply
This is amazing, not just

because of your humbling perspective and
the content, but because of the massive
amount of research youve done. Its

insane. Did you do all of the research this
week? And was it completely on your
own, or do you have scientist friends who
pointed you in the right direction?
Wait But Why
Author
May 22, 2014 at 8:35 pm - Reply
A few readers have asked

about various parts of a post-creation
process, and this seems as good a
place as any to share. Heres a full
rundown of what goes into a post:
1) Topic selection. A stage when my
Instant Gratification Monkey is in full
rebellion. Every topic that seemed so
tantalizing when I first conceived it
and wrote it down on my grand idea
document suddenly seems disgusting
and impossible, because Im not in
This is Future Tims problem! mode,
Im in This is my current problem
mode. For this week, I first wanted to
do a post on putting size into
perspective, from the quark up to the
multiverse (kind of like the size
version of the Putting Time in
Perspectives post). Then I called
WBW co-founder (and kindergarten
friend) Andrew so I could
procrastinate from doing anything by
discussing post ideas with him. He
wasnt that enthused about the size
idea and came up with the idea to dig
into some funny NYC-related
phenomenon, something weve been
talking about for awhile. This was
interesting, so I brainstormed for a
few minutes, but I was disappointed
because I had gotten all excited about
doing something with astronomy, so I
went back to that. I started thinking
up two other ideas tooone is a long
cartoon with no text (about an alien
discovering our tiny universe by
shrinking himself), the other was the
Fermi Paradox, something thats been
sitting in the doc for a bunch of
months. After much idiotic
deliberation between those three
astronomy posts, I settled on Fermi.
2) Research. There was a ton to
research because there are so many
different theories and principles and
hypotheses to get a good handle on. I
did about 25 hours of reading, pulling
quotes or terms or ideas into a Word

doc as I went. Since I only pick topics
Im excited to learn about, research is
usually the most fun part of the
process (unless Im behind schedule
and hurried). When I finished, the
Word doc was 15 pages long.
3) Outlining/Structuring/Planning.
This is always by far the hardest and
ickiest part of the process. This stage
is where I take a billion scattered
thoughts and ideas and potential
structures and have to figure out how
to make them into a post. This is
where the most important and
creative work happensby the time
Im done with this stage, most of the
jokes/thoughts/drawings/etc are
worked out in my head. This is the
really important part because often a
post isnt working and its because the
structure is wrong (i.e. should it be a
15 Things That.. post or a storytelling type post or a mostly visual
post or another 10 possibilities). And
when the structure is right, the whole
thing just works. Because I have a
weird personality, I refuse to write
one word or draw one thing until the
outline is completely finished and
every corner of things is worked out
in my headwhich sometimes leads
to me watching hours and even days
go by as I stare at the screen, despise
my outline, and despise myself. If Im
really late with a post, its usually
because this stage took way longer
than I planned for it to. For this post,
outlining was easier than normal,
because all the theories didnt leave
me with too many options other than
listing themalthough the Great Filter
was messing everything up by being
part of a few different theories, so
this held me up for awhile. I finally
came to the two major groupings
structure, which solved the problem,
but that was about my 6th crack at
categorization before something
finally worked. The other part of this
stage was weeding out about 75% of
what I had researched. Even with
only 1/4 making the cut, it was a
ridiculously long post. Decisions here
center around things like including
the Type I/II/III Civilizations thing or
not. I could have left that out and put

a whole other thing in and it would
have been a different post. This time,
this stage only took about 5 hours,
but its often the longest part
(especially for any posts on
life/happiness where Im inventing a
lot of terms for it).
4) Writing. This is my second favorite
part after researching, because A) I
get to lie down while doing it, B)
Since the outline stage already did all
the hard thinking, this is just me
spitting it out. And I get to do fun
parts like intros and conclusions
where I get to pretend Im a real
writer. This usually goes by fairly
quickly, although sometimes I spend
a ton of time on one sectionin this
post, I just couldnt get the conclusion
the way I wanted it, and I still dont
like what I came up with. Because this
was so long and I had to verify facts a
bunch of times, the writing took
about 10 hours.
5) Drawing. Mercifully, there were
very few in this one. I have a blurry
memory of drawing squiggly green
lines, one by one, in the Great Filter
diagrams at 6am this morning,
having not yet slept. I got extra
behind on this post because an
unexpected thing took up half of
Monday and half of Tuesday, so I
slept about 3 hours Tuesday night
and nothing Wed night to get this
done before work starts on Thursday,
which doesnt qualify for
Tuesday(ish). Anyway, drawings are
not mentally challenging the same
way outlining is, but theyre physically
grueling. Im an extremely untalented
artist and need to draw things over
and over again to get them right, and
so much of the comedy of a stick
figure is in the tiniest part of the way
a mouth curves or the exact shape of
an eye dot, so sometimes Ill draw a
face 50 times before I get it right. I
have to shake my hand out a lot since
for some reason I clench my drawing
pen like a mother desperately clinging
to her babys wrist as it dangles over
a cliff. And sometimes I decide to
draw landscapes or backgrounds,
which is weird because they take a

ton of time and add very little for the
reader. A common experience is
looking at a blank canvas and having
to draw something like a couch or
grass or a chair and just having no
idea how to do that. Part of the
problem is that Im overly anal and Ill
do things like spend an hour on a
Venn diagram to make it pretty and
perfect, when again, that doesnt do
much for the reader so its a weird
use of time. This post had almost no
drawings, so those only took about 3
hours, part of which was spent
hideously drawing hundreds of star
dots, one by one, for the feature
photo for the front page. But on a
typical post, drawings take 10-20
hours.
So the total here was 40 hours.
Typical post takes 35 60 hours.
Kimmo Rouvari
WOW! Im blown away! Totally!

Your post was just perfect and
describing your working method
was a sweet dessert. I havent
read this blog previously, but
from now on, I am. Thanks!
Jason
I found that fascinating to read

about. Im shocked/impressed
that so much goes into each post
and amazed that you can do one
of these every week. I hope its
your only job
I love Wait But Why because most
sites/writers dont have the
time/resources/desire to do posts
that take 40-60 hours to do. If it
doesnt kill you, please keep it up
for a long time. Its a special
thing.
Tomas
May 22, 2014 at 6:07 pm - Reply
Awesome, dude.
wobster109
May 22, 2014 at 6:15 pm - Reply
An excellent post. You touched

on a couple things Im very curious how

a Wait But Why on immortality might turn
out. Were actually getting really close as a
species, like next 200 years close.
Wait But Why
Author
May 22, 2014 at 9:27 pm - Reply
A) Great post idea.

B) No. I refuse to have 200,000 years
of humanity go by and then I come
around JUST before they figure out
immortality. Imagine being the last
person to die. So annoying.
newton
May 22, 2014 at 6:19 pm - Reply
Where are they?

Meanwhile on another highly intelligent
alien planet:
Alien 1: Hey Tom, I visited earth again
the other day, just for shits and giggles.
Alien 2: Oh yeah, whered you go this
time?
A1: I think its where they call the United
States. I hovered for about a minute in
the silver cruiser and I think at least a few
humans saw me. They even put their
primitive video footage on their so-called
internet but still no one is believing our
existence.
A2: Haha those humans are so cute.
A1: Hey you wanna head down there
and go scramble their fighter jets
sometime?
A2: Sure I should be free Sunday.
Maro Pisani
May 23, 2014 at 10:32 pm - Reply
your story is really great I

had such a laugh I think it is exactly
to the point!!!!
daChipster
May 22, 2014 at 6:30 pm - Reply
Depending on who you are

asking, theres a whole bunch more
dimensions in spacetime than the four we
group together as the here-and-now. Call
it 10 all day, although I saw one theory
with as many as 26, in a brief survey of
string theory. Anyway, where are the
other people? Maybe theyve advanced to
where they only interact in the 6 we cant
see. Hey, look at that blob over there!
Well, yes, to you in regular spacetime, he
looks like a blob, but in the other 6
dimensions, he looks like a really
intelligent, handsome blob. And hes

totally hooking up with multiple SMOKIN
blobettes on the 1-800-hotblob party-line,
which to us is known as dimension 9.
OR going with possibility 6 up above
maybe they communicate and broadcast
using quantum entanglement, which
solves the problem of instantaneous
communication over large distances. We
have no way of listening in, and they
probably dont even have the equipment
to check radio communications anymore,
except for some old stuff lying around in
the blob flea market the way 8-track and
betamax players pile up here on earth.
aliyakadyrova
May 22, 2014 at 6:38 pm - Reply
Wow! Discovered this blog

recently and so glad I did. This post is
best so far.
daChipster
May 22, 2014 at 6:45 pm - Reply
BTW, in case you all missed it,

we left our heliosphere almost 2 years
ago. Last fall, Voyager 1 was confirmed to
be in interstellar space as of 8/25/12.
How COOL Is That?
It is expected to reach the Oort cloud in
another 3 centuries.
Amanda
May 22, 2014 at 6:54 pm - Reply
This was absolutely fantastic.

Thank you so much for your hard work
and your uncanny talent for putting things
into perspective and sharing things that
are not only cool and interesting, but
make your readers think intelligently
about what theyve read even after theyve
finished reading!
Angela
May 22, 2014 at 7:42 pm - Reply
BRILLIANT! Just freaking

BRILLIANT! Ive just been watching the
re-make of Carl Sagans Cosmos: A
SpaceTime Odyssey, and this has made
that a thousand time more real to me.
And now I truly feel insignificant! But my
mind is blown in so may ways. Thank you
for this! Best post EVER!!!!
Ben
May 22, 2014 at 7:47 pm - Reply
Lest we forget the Homer

Paradox.
http://www.boreme.com/posting.php?
id=12282#.U35T3W9QHms
Bill L
May 22, 2014 at 8:13 pm - Reply
My prevailing theory is that

Earth is a penal colony and the civilized
ones who put our ancestors here want
nothing to do with us. How else can you
explain our behaviour? Tens of thousands
of generations of inbred criminals.
daChipster
May 22, 2014 at 9:33 pm - Reply
Like Australia?
Bill L
Yes, just like Australia.

Aussie
May 23, 2014 at 3:52 am
- Reply
Bull. crap.
Robert
May 22, 2014 at 9:18 pm - Reply
Great post! I hope you do a

similar article on the multiverse idea.
While it is fun to discuss such things, I
think there is one key point to always
keep in mind. Towards the beginning, the
phrase Moving forward, we have no
choice but to get completely
speculative.. was used because there
are so many moving variables that we
have no knowledge of and limited
comprehension of.
In all honesty, I dont believe humanity
will ever answer the question,.just a
great mystery that will go on forever. But
still fun to discuss
Ted
May 22, 2014 at 9:30 pm - Reply
I tend to think we are alone. I

think as our science has advanced, we
oversimplify how utterly complex even a
single celled organism is and we have no
idea how or what animates life to begin
with.
A large part of that is because we have
successfully mapped the human genome
(and dozens of other animals and plant
life). So we know the blueprints, the

environment and the ingredients
necessary for a living organism; or at
least an organic living organism on
earth.but thats all.
Many people believe life was an accident.
Billions of years of all the ingredients in
one pot, stirred in the right environment
trillions of time and presto.LIFE.
But having the right pieces and
environment doesnt guarantee life.
Think about it this waysay you loaded
a 747 with: lumber, concrete, glass,
wiring, carpet, shingles, cabinets,
plywood, fixtures, etc and pushed them
all out of the plane simultaneously from
50,000 feet. You could do it 100 billion
trillion times and never end up with a new
house. And building a new house is childs
play compared to giving life to a single
celled organism.
Mark
May 22, 2014 at 9:36 pm - Reply
Your presentation includes an

unexamined assumption. You have
assumed that once a civilization achieves
the technological ability to listen for
signals from extra-terrestrial civilizations it
will not only persist, but continue to
develop. We have had that technological
ability for a mere 50 or so years. An
unpleasant possibility is that our
technological civilization will not persist
for more than another 50 years. We could
succumb to global warming, for instance,
or warfare caused by shortage of
resources (water and oil are two obvious
possibilities). So a possible analogy is
fireflies: technologically-capable
civilizations blink into an out of existence,
at remote distances. The probability that
any two blink on at the same time and
persist long enough to communicate over
vast distances might be impossibly small.
Colin
May 22, 2014 at 9:38 pm - Reply
I think, having read that, a

post on summarising existential
philosophy would be apt, considering the
number of existential crises youll have
triggered today! Its bedtime where I am,
off to stare at the ceiling for 8 hours!
Baelnor
May 22, 2014 at 9:42 pm - Reply
Strangely enough, the amount

of faith required here matches the
amount of faith required to believe in
God and a Creator.
Thanks Mr Wait But Why, you are turning
me religious.
Bill L
May 22, 2014 at 10:19 pm - Reply
You touched on the concept of

differing timelines. I firmly believe that
due to time infinity (rather than space
infinity) that species making contact is
nearly impossible. The odds are just too
great that they could rise to a level
capable of all that is required to make
such contact AND do so within the time
frame that both species exist. They simply
never overlap. Extinction is a bitch.
Terry.
May 22, 2014 at 10:20 pm - Reply
Has anyone considered that

God created all of this. The entire
amazing whole thing. Why? To show us
how amazing He is and how small we are
and yet how much he loved us. I know a
lot of you will doubt and choose to
believe in a Big Bang. Great show.
Horrible theory. Sounds silly to me to hear
people that believe we were made by
accident not a Creator. Every look at a
great piece of art or a beautiful building
and think hey look at that accident. Its
beautiful! Then why look at the universe
that way. God loves you. Enough to make
this world and all the galaxies around. He
also loves you enough to send His son to
die for your sins. Next time you look at
the stars please dont make the mistake to
think what a beautiful accident.
Derek
May 22, 2014 at 11:22 pm - Reply
One of my favorite thought

experiments is imagining what a human
3000 years from now would think of a
CD. Its shiny, has artistic patterns on it,
and is circular. Were humans from circa
2000 AD using these as decorations?
Some form of currency? Maybe they used
them as jewelry. Would somebody, even
3000 years from now, understand that
there is data stored on there? And if not,
what data from 3000 years ago are we
missing?
Roger Stevenson
May 22, 2014 at 11:36 pm - Reply
An intelligent Creator is the

only answer that will disprove all of your
conjecture!
He claims the Bible is the way and answer
to this life we know and inspired his
creation to explain it for anyone interested
in learning!
God claims he put the stars in motion for
humans to be able to tell time and
navigate in this finite existence in a infinite
universe and we can tell where we are
and when from this perfect clock but
other life forms are much more likely in a
Coocoo clock than our universe!
Speechless
May 22, 2014 at 11:37 pm - Reply
Monkey time!! Oh dear I am

zooming all over the place learning about
all these things you have put in this post.
Faith? of course religion? yep.
Speechless? uh-ha.
You stretch and manipulate our minds to
places we wouldnt go to on our own.
Please continue I think
How cool are we that we can dance, cry
and learn? Far out!!!!!!!
Rhybon
May 23, 2014 at 1:52 am - Reply
Some say its as high as 50%,

but lets go with the more conservative
22% that came out of a recent PNAS
study.
Heh heh, you said PNAS.
L
May 23, 2014 at 2:12 am - Reply
Wonderful! Waiting for you to

(seriously and careful/ humble as always)
engage with the topic of religion and the
what-if of God.
Eric McCarty
May 23, 2014 at 2:45 am - Reply
My favorite blogger writing

about my favorite topic. Just like you, I
talk and ramble with anyone that will
listen about the Fermi Paradox, its been
my favorite topic of discussion for years.
While I usually have to point them to
Wikipedia if they want a summary, this
post has replaced it.
What I think is truly fascinating, is that

you made me feel wildly
insignificant.AND wildly significant in
the same post. Brilliant.
Alex
May 23, 2014 at 5:23 am - Reply
Great post! this remind me of

a (very) short story from Terry Bisson on
the exact same subject which give you a
explanation, its called Theyre made out
of meat
http://www.terrybisson.com/page6/page6.html
Jarod
May 23, 2014 at 9:27 am - Reply
Extraordinary great post!

But please note that for a post of that
length, a table of contents might be
useful.
Greetings from Munich!
Tim Iredale
May 23, 2014 at 2:25 pm - Reply
Just to add to the much

deserved congratulatory hubbub: super
excellent post well done and thank you.
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Anca
May 23, 2014 at 5:10 pm - Reply
This is a great post. When I

first saw it I was like ohhh to much to
read but then I had a quick look, thought
it looks interesting and now I`m sad that
it was so short. You are great writer.
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Rob
May 23, 2014 at 6:27 pm - Reply
Type III Civilization Heaven.

Principle Resident there God. He did
visit Earth about 2000 years ago Wasnt
treated that well Seems to be waiting to
see how wretched we become before we
hit the Big Filter
Anonymous
May 23, 2014 at 8:22 pm - Reply
Great post!
May 23, 2014 at 6:34 pm - Reply
This is my favorite blog ever

and I look forward to reading it and being
educated every week, so after seeing what
goes into one of your posts all the time
and effort I went to the wait but why
store and ordered T-shirts from all my
favorite posts! You are brilliant. Thank
you for being the best teacher Ive ever
had.
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Dystopia Earth
John Schepers
May 23, 2014 at 11:51 pm - Reply
This did not take into account

that as our planet was being born a star
exploded giving us the magnetic feild we
needed to ward off radiation. Or that our
moon is the perfect size and orbit. Both
are needed to give us the life we need.
With these odds the chance for life
diminishes to the possibility that we are
the only ones and that is because a force
not yet recognized wanted it this way.
Only when we figure out what force
creates a black hole will we know the
meaning of life. To me infinity is
impossible in time or space
Benji
May 24, 2014 at 12:20 am - Reply
What about the possibility that

were last? The final Noahs Ark of the
galaxy?
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Jeroen S
May 24, 2014 at 6:16 am - Reply
Truly fascinating, as always.

This is the first article Ive ever read on
cosmology that doesnt leave me behind
with the uneasy feeling that life is utterly
pointless.
The great Dutch comedian Theo Maassen
makes it even simpler though (he might
have been joking): there are only 2
options: either theyre smarter than us, or
theyre more stupid than us. If theyre
smarter, theyll find us first; if theyre
more stupid, then I dont want to have
anything to do with them anyway!.
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Some people stick with the traditional,

A really starry sky seems vastbut all

When confronted with the topic of stars

So there are 100 Earth-like planets for

If Planet X has a similar story to Earth,

be today (the orange is a reference to

The technology and knowledge of a

A Type I Civilization has the ability to

A Type II Civilization can harness all

A Type III Civilization blows the

Source: J. Schombert, U. Oregon

least 1,000 Type III Civilizations in our

Welcome to the Fermi Paradox.

non-exclusivity problem, which rebuffs

If this theory is true, the big question is,

1. Were Rare (The Great

Filter is Behind Us)

This scenario would explain why there are

into being, they remained that way for

or something about the planet itselfare

2. Were the First

For Group 1 Thinkers, if the Great Filter is

3. Were Fucked (The Great

If were neither rare nor early, Group 1

must be in our future. This would apply

until evidence proves otherwise. Theyre

An even more advanced civilization might

inefficient use of resources to exterminate

reached a certain level of intelligence.

Lets say we have an ant hill in the middle

As we continue along with our possiblyfutile search for extraterrestrial

To humble you further:

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1000 years, or even less. That means that i

In "Coming of Age in the Milky Way" there's another explanation: Humans

May 22, 2014 at 1:43 pm - Reply

WOW! What a read! It's

May 22, 2014 at 2:20 pm - Reply

And this, ladies & gentlemen,

May 22, 2014 at 9:33 pm - Reply

What? I dont get it What is

May 24, 2014 at 1:08 am Reply

Yeah, I cant tell if hes mocking

May 24, 2014 at 2:25 am - Reply

Unlike religion, its explicitly

May 22, 2014 at 2:34 pm - Reply

Hands down the most

May 22, 2014 at 2:50 pm - Reply

Very interesting as usual

May 22, 2014 at 2:54 pm - Reply