Argentina Evolucin y Perspectivas del Producto Interno Bruto

por Eduardo Petazze

28/03/15
Sumario
En este papel de trabajo se desarrolla un posible mtodo destinado a anticipar los datos que el INDEC publica trimestralmente sobre los Agregados Macroeconmicos (PIB) de Argentina.
Diversos organismos internacionales y consultores econmicos locales realizan sus propias estimaciones del Producto Bruto Interno de Argentina, los cuales -generalmente- presentan bajo grado
de correlacin con los datos que oportunamente publica el INDEC.
A su vez, el INDEC publica un Estimador Mensual de la Actividad Econmica (EMAE), el cual -actualmente- carece de desglose como consecuencia del cambio de base realizado para la
estimacin del PIB.
Bajo esta metodologa, se ha correlacionado los datos publicados por el INDEC para lel Valor Bruto de la Produccin a Precios Bsicos, con diversos indicadores de actividad, oficiales y
privados, seleccionando a aquellos que presentan una mejor correlacin en el perodo 2004 / 2014, como estimador del Valor Bruto de la Produccin en moneda constante de dicha actividad.

Resultados
El Producto Interno Bruto
El siguiente cuadro muestra un resumen de la evolucin del Valor Bruto de la Produccin (Gross Production Value) y su relacin con el nivel de Consumos Intermedios, Valor Agregado Bruto a
Precios Bsicos (Gross Value Added), Impuestos netos, y Producto Interno Bruto (Gross Domestic Product).

NSA
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Latest data
Own estimate

NSA
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
Latest data
Own estimate

Gross production value

Index
Million (2004)
YoY
pesos
2004=100
109.40
9.40%
3,993,314.5
119.34
9.09%
4,356,214.2
129.18
8.24%
4,715,301.4
133.20
3.11%
4,862,114.5
132.57 -0.48%
4,838,853.4
145.93 10.08%
5,326,632.6
159.18
9.08%
5,810,475.7
159.96
0.49%
5,838,731.0
164.60
2.90%
6,008,014.9
165.14
0.33%
6,027,889.7
165.17
0.02%
6,029,082.4

Argentina - Composition and outlook of the Real GDP

Intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added (GVA)
Net taxes
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Million (2004)
% of Gross
Million (2004)
Million (2004)
Million (2004)
YoY
% of GVA
YoY
pesos
production
pesos
pesos
pesos
1,940,613.6
48.60%
2,052,700.9
8.91%
288,361.4
14.05%
2,341,062.3
9.23%
2,132,117.4
48.94%
2,224,096.8
8.35%
313,035.3
14.07%
2,537,132.1
8.38%
2,319,916.1
49.20%
2,395,385.3
7.70%
343,843.8
14.35%
2,739,229.2
7.97%
2,396,572.3
49.29%
2,465,542.2
2.93%
357,916.8
14.52%
2,823,459.0
3.07%
2,375,928.4
49.10%
2,462,925.0
-0.11%
361,946.4
14.70%
2,824,871.4
0.05%
2,626,679.1
49.31%
2,699,953.5
9.62%
391,912.8
14.52%
3,091,866.3
9.45%
2,887,290.9
49.69%
2,923,184.8
8.27%
427,979.4
14.64%
3,351,164.2
8.39%
2,894,009.3
49.57%
2,944,721.7
0.74%
433,310.8
14.71%
3,378,032.5
0.80%
2,972,971.2
49.48%
3,035,043.7
3.07%
440,456.9
14.51%
3,475,500.6
2.89%
2,981,195.7
49.46%
3,046,693.9
0.38%
445,121.5
14.61%
3,491,815.4
0.47%
2,984,256.0
49.50%
3,044,826.4
-0.06%
451,279.1
14.82%
3,496,105.5
0.12%

Gross production value

Index
Million (2004)
YoY
pesos
2004=100
152.13
0.63%
1,388,229.0
168.51
4.68%
1,537,737.5
165.50
3.70%
1,510,248.9
172.24
2.47%
1,571,799.5
153.94
1.19%
1,404,793.0
169.51
0.59%
1,546,825.2
164.84 -0.40%
1,504,251.8
172.27
0.01%
1,572,019.6
153.96
0.01%
1,404,961.9
169.60
0.05%
1,547,629.2

Argentina - Composition and outlook of the Real GDP

Intermediate consumption
Gross Value Added (GVA)
Net taxes
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Million (2004)
% of Gross
Million (2004)
Million (2004)
Million (2004)
YoY
% of GVA
YoY
pesos
production
pesos
pesos
pesos
678,781.3
48.90%
709,447.7
1.45%
105,509.7
14.87%
814,957.4
1.31%
763,420.4
49.65%
774,317.1
5.23%
112,481.5
14.53%
886,798.6
5.18%
752,017.8
49.79%
758,231.1
3.32%
114,417.7
15.09%
872,648.8
3.33%
778,751.7
49.55%
793,047.8
2.24%
108,048.0
13.62%
901,095.8
1.71%
687,816.3
48.96%
716,976.7
1.06%
104,789.8
14.62%
821,766.5
0.84%
768,877.0
49.71%
777,948.3
0.47%
115,133.5
14.80%
893,081.8
0.71%
746,392.1
49.62%
757,859.7
-0.05%
114,581.6
15.12%
872,441.2
-0.02%
778,110.4
49.50%
793,909.3
0.11%
110,616.6
13.93%
904,525.9
0.38%
688,219.3
48.98%
716,742.6
-0.03%
105,580.3
14.73%
822,322.9
0.07%
769,991.4
49.75%
777,637.8
-0.04%
116,457.3
14.98%
894,095.2
0.11%

El Valor Bruto de la Produccin Actividades directamente mensurables

La proyeccin del Valor Bruto de la Produccin est basado en la evolucin de cuatro ramas de actividad, segn ndices oficiales que conforman el 50.67% del total:
Estimador Mensual Industrial
Actividad de la construccin
Servicios pblicos

NSA
D Manufacturing Activity
2004=100
EMI
YoY Production YoY
weighing
2006=100
34.7313%
2005
92.26 8.38%
109.10 9.10%
2006
100.00 8.39%
120.13 10.11%
2007
107.56 7.56%
129.72 7.98%
2008
112.93 4.99%
132.98 2.52%
2009
113.00 0.06%
130.86 -1.59%
2010
124.01 9.75%
145.98 11.55%
2011
132.13 6.55%
162.72 11.47%
2012
130.59 -1.17%
159.97 -1.69%
2013
130.31 -0.21%
160.67 0.44%
2014
127.01 -2.54%
158.69 -1.24%
2015
124.34 -2.10%
155.95 -1.72%
Latest data - (*) ISSP, excl electricity, gas and water
Own estimate
NSA
D Manufacturing Activity
2004=100
EMI
YoY Production YoY
weighing
2006=100
34.7313%
2013Q1
122.51 -1.30%
149.43 -2.40%
2013Q2
131.85 3.53%
162.71 1.13%
2013Q3
132.28 0.69%
167.33 2.29%
2013Q4
134.61 -3.51%
163.22 0.57%
2014Q1
118.65 -3.15%
149.86 0.29%
2014Q2
127.66 -3.17%
161.25 -0.90%
2014Q3
129.91 -1.80%
163.14 -2.50%
2014Q4
131.80 -2.09%
160.50 -1.67%
2015Q1
116.05 -2.20%
147.32 -1.69%
2015Q2
124.99 -2.10%
158.37 -1.78%
Latest data - (*) ISSP, excl electricity, gas and water
Own estimate
NSA
D Manufacturing Activity
2004=100
EMI
YoY Production YoY
weighing
2006=100
34.7313%
Jan-14
114.18 -2.60%
142.89 1.15%
Feb-14
116.68 -0.54%
148.00 3.06%
Mar-14
125.10 -5.93%
158.68 -2.90%
Apr-14
129.60 -4.05%
163.79 -1.22%
May-14
128.16 -4.94%
161.97 -2.51%
Jun-14
125.24 -0.34%
157.99 1.17%
Jul-14
128.97 -0.71%
162.73 -0.88%
Aug-14
129.66 -2.94%
163.29 -4.08%
Sep-14
131.09 -1.70%
163.41 -2.49%
Oct-14
136.68 -1.84%
167.15 -1.48%
Nov-14
130.93 -2.10%
158.47 -1.35%
Dec-14
127.79 -2.35%
155.86 -2.19%
Jan-15
111.66 -2.20%
140.62 -1.59%
Feb-15
114.19 -2.14%
145.57 -1.65%
Mar-15
122.30 -2.24%
155.77 -1.83%
Latest data - (*) ISSP, excl electricity, gas and water
Own estimate

Argentina Indices of Gross Production Value NSA 2004=100

E Electricity, Gas and Water
F Construction Activity
Index
YoY Production YoY
ISAC
YoY Production YoY
2004=100
2.0902%
2004=100
5.6720%
104.55 4.55%
106.48 6.48%
118.73 18.73%
118.09 18.09%
110.29 5.49%
110.95 4.19%
137.94 16.18%
136.97 15.99%
118.77 7.69%
116.65 5.14%
147.92 7.23%
148.42 8.36%
124.63 4.93%
122.14 4.71%
154.56 4.49%
152.87 3.00%
124.74 0.09%
121.15 -0.81%
151.47 -2.00%
149.08 -2.48%
129.08 3.48%
124.74 2.96%
168.10 10.98%
162.27 8.85%
133.58 3.49%
130.93 4.96%
182.76 8.72%
176.94 9.03%
137.77 3.14%
139.14 6.27%
176.96 -3.18%
171.92 -2.83%
139.70 1.40%
141.88 1.97%
185.14 4.62%
178.07 3.58%
138.82 -0.63%
142.68 0.56%
184.35 -0.42%
177.16 -0.51%
134.61 -3.03%
139.86 -1.98%
185.99 0.89%
178.28 0.63%

Argentina Indices of Gross Production Value NSA 2004=100

E Electricity, Gas and Water
F Construction Activity
Index
YoY Production YoY
ISAC
YoY Production
2004=100
2.0902%
2004=100
5.6720%
137.57 0.21%
133.93 -1.85%
175.29 -1.35%
169.01
136.90 1.19%
139.48 0.33%
185.32 6.95%
177.26
142.38 1.90%
153.82 4.44%
189.77 8.20%
182.31
141.93 2.28%
140.31 4.85%
190.16 4.78%
183.69
138.65 0.78%
137.32 2.54%
170.79 -2.57%
165.20
138.40 1.10%
145.73 4.48%
181.12 -2.27%
173.34
141.18 -0.85%
148.11 -3.71%
191.81 1.07%
183.57
137.06 -3.43%
139.57 -0.53%
193.68 1.85%
186.53
134.26 -3.16%
134.41 -2.13%
171.72 0.54%
165.72
134.54 -2.79%
143.03 -1.85%
183.01 1.04%
174.68

Argentina Indices of Gross Production Value NSA 2004=100

E Electricity, Gas and Water
F Construction Activity
Index
YoY Production YoY
ISAC
YoY Production
2004=100
2.0902%
2004=100
5.6720%
150.09 3.27%
147.60 5.06%
176.79 2.07%
171.16
131.24 -0.79%
129.15 0.68%
159.81 -5.54%
154.79
134.60 -0.36%
135.23 1.66%
175.77 -4.20%
169.65
132.84 0.63%
138.03 4.40%
182.08 -2.58%
174.67
139.70 0.59%
148.10 4.88%
184.57 -4.61%
176.43
142.67 2.04%
151.05 4.17%
176.71 0.65%
168.92
148.40 1.92%
156.29 -0.30%
181.99 -1.47%
174.04
141.82 -0.82%
149.17 -4.94%
188.75 -2.63%
180.52
133.31 -3.78%
138.86 -6.02%
204.68 7.30%
196.16
137.29 -0.25%
140.85 1.44%
212.39 4.88%
204.27
133.51 -1.99%
135.61 1.74%
193.82 0.10%
186.79
140.39 -7.61%
142.26 -4.39%
174.84 0.27%
168.53
143.59 -4.33%
142.75 -3.28%
176.96 0.10%
170.97
128.03 -2.45%
127.33 -1.41%
160.94 0.71%
155.53
131.17 -2.55%
133.14 -1.55%
177.24 0.84%
170.65

YoY
-1.94%
5.23%
6.83%
4.24%
-2.26%
-2.21%
0.69%
1.55%
0.31%
0.77%

YoY
2.23%
-5.12%
-3.87%
-2.43%
-4.54%
0.58%
-1.76%
-3.06%
6.86%
4.56%
-0.18%
-0.04%
-0.11%
0.48%
0.59%

I Transport, Storage and Comm.

ISSP
YoY Production YoY
2004=100
8.1748%
115.60 15.61%
114.57 14.57%
127.69 10.46%
127.88 11.62%
146.49 14.72%
145.14 13.50%
164.84 12.52%
155.20 6.93%
181.01 9.81%
153.46 -1.12%
203.53 12.44%
172.04 12.11%
228.61 12.32%
185.99 8.11%
247.31 8.18%
188.55 1.37%
267.87 8.31%
195.83 3.86%
280.49 4.71%
198.42 1.33%
291.07 3.77%
198.31 -0.06%

I Transport, Storage and Comm.

ISSP (*) YoY Production YoY
2004=100
8.1748%
256.90 7.35%
184.06 2.69%
258.74 9.19%
205.14 6.67%
273.12 9.31%
197.15 4.53%
282.74 7.46%
196.95 1.51%
271.31 5.61%
189.32 2.86%
271.17 4.80%
209.51 2.13%
286.11 4.76%
198.25 0.56%
293.36 3.76%
196.60 -0.18%
281.48 3.75%
189.18 -0.08%
282.06 4.02%
210.49 0.47%

I Transport, Storage and Comm.

ISSP (*) YoY Production YoY
2004=100
8.1748%
278.94 5.93%
192.22 2.47%
257.64 6.00%
177.65 3.59%
277.37 4.94%
198.09 2.58%
270.92 4.02%
207.13 1.50%
274.43 5.78%
216.82 3.23%
268.15 4.61%
204.57 1.62%
287.28 5.07%
204.81 1.18%
286.07 4.42%
196.42 0.02%
284.98 4.79%
193.53 0.45%
295.52 4.84%
199.74 0.93%
287.82 3.78%
192.36 -0.01%
296.74 2.67%
197.72 -1.43%
287.13 2.94%
190.57 -0.86%
268.84 4.35%
178.46 0.46%
288.46 4.00%
198.50 0.21%

El Valor Bruto de la Produccin Nacional y de Otras Actividades indirectamente mensuradas

Otras Actividades (49.33% del valor bruto total de la produccin) han debido ser estimadas con una multiplicidad de ndices no oficiales y otras estimaciones globales.
En el siguiente cuadro se presenta tambin la comparacin entre el indicador del Valor Bruto de la Produccin (total) y el ndice General de Actividad (IGA-OJF), publicado mensualmente por
el Centro de Estudios Econmicos de OJF y Asociados, el cual ha presentado la mejor correlacin respecto de otros indicadores globales de actividad analizados (excluyendo el oficial EMAE).
Argentina Indices of Gross Production Value NSA 2004=100
NSA
National Activity
Other Activity Index
2004=100 OJF-IPI YoY Production YoY
Production YoY
weighing
1993=100
100.0000%
49.3317%
2005
127.02 8.52%
109.40 9.40%
107.88 7.88%
2006
137.30 8.10%
119.34 9.09%
115.70 7.25%
2007
149.16 8.63%
129.18 8.24%
124.48 7.58%
2008
153.04 2.60%
133.20 3.11%
127.92 2.77%
2009
146.73 -4.12%
132.57 -0.48%
128.89 0.76%
2010
158.71 8.16%
145.93 10.08%
140.59 9.08%
2011
167.02 5.23%
159.18 9.08%
151.41 7.70%
2012
166.38 -0.38%
159.96 0.49%
154.72 2.19%
2013
171.90 3.31%
164.60 2.90%
161.60 4.44%
2014
167.59 -2.51%
165.14 0.33%
163.74 1.33%
2015
162.09 -3.28%
165.17 0.02%
165.74 1.22%
Latest data - (*) ISSP, excl electricity, gas and water
Own estimate
Argentina Indices of Gross Production Value NSA 2004=100
NSA
National Activity
Other Activity Index
2004=100 OJF-IPI YoY Production YoY
Production YoY
weighing
1993=100
100.0000%
49.3317%
2013Q1
160.20 0.01%
152.13 0.63%
147.56 2.93%
2013Q2
179.33 6.97%
168.51 4.68%
166.75 6.95%
2013Q3
178.04 3.59%
165.50 3.70%
157.53 4.17%
2013Q4
170.03 2.53%
172.24 2.47%
174.54 3.65%
2014Q1
160.53 0.21%
153.94 1.19%
150.37 1.90%
2014Q2
175.60 -2.08%
169.51 0.59%
169.26 1.50%
2014Q3
170.14 -4.44%
164.84 -0.40%
159.06 0.97%
2014Q4
164.08 -3.50%
172.27 0.01%
176.27 0.99%
2015Q1
155.50 -3.13%
153.96 0.01%
152.28 1.27%
2015Q2
169.86 -3.27%
169.60 0.05%
171.26 1.18%
Latest data - (*) ISSP, excl electricity, gas and water
Own estimate
Argentina Indices of Gross Production Value NSA 2004=100
NSA
National Activity
Other Activity Index
2004=100 OJF-IPI YoY Production YoY
Production YoY
weighing
1993=100
100.0000%
49.3317%
Jan-14
163.59 2.64%
158.69 3.19%
163.30 4.68%
Feb-14
154.01 1.84%
146.65 2.75%
140.36 3.51%
Mar-14
163.99 -3.53%
156.49 -2.11%
147.44 -2.41%
Apr-14
174.46 -2.22%
168.09 -0.09%
165.17 0.52%
May-14
178.77 -3.05%
172.62 -0.37%
173.40 0.68%
Jun-14
173.57 -0.92%
167.81 2.31%
169.21 3.35%
Jul-14
172.21 -3.45%
165.17 0.36%
159.68 1.41%
Aug-14
167.24 -6.28%
160.60 -2.10%
150.97 -0.73%
Sep-14
170.96 -3.58%
168.75 0.52%
166.52 2.14%
Oct-14
169.39 -3.63%
175.29 -0.31%
175.10 -0.43%
Nov-14
163.80 -3.63%
173.98 -0.49%
182.01 -0.15%
Dec-14
159.04 -3.23%
167.53 0.89%
171.70 3.76%
Jan-15
158.56 -3.07%
158.61 -0.05%
165.23 1.18%
Feb-15
149.68 -2.81%
146.80 0.11%
142.25 1.35%
Mar-15
158.27 -3.49%
156.47 -0.01%
149.36 1.30%
Latest data - (*) ISSP, excl electricity, gas and water
Own estimate

Conclusiones
A la fecha de confeccin de este papel de trabajo se puede estimar que el PIB de Argentina durante el primer trimestre del 2015 (2015Q1) tendr un crecimiento algo menor a
+0.1% respecto de su nivel en el primer trimestre del 2014; porcentaje que se espera sea tambin el crecimiento para todo el ao 2015 en su comparacin con el ao 2014.