Chapter 5

Chapter
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Top-down approach
A central person takes responsibility for
forecasting and prepares an overall forecast
Bottom-up approach
Common in decentralized rms
Each part of the rm prepares its own sales
forecast
5-2
Advantages
Useful in established rms for established
products
Results in a more accurate forecast
Limitations
Assumes the future will look very like the past
When product or market characteristics change:
Statistical models used without adequate judgment
may not keep pace
5-3
Advantage
Based on what people actually do
Limitation
Not possible for new-to-the-world products
5-4
Advantage
Methods can be done with various kinds of
respondents and increasingly done online
5-5
Limitations
What people say is not always what they do
People may not be knowledgeable when asked
their opinion
What people imagine about a product concept in
a survey:
May not be what is actually delivered once the
product is launched
5-6
Advantages
Used for new product forecasting where:
Neither statistical methods nor observations are
possible
Useful for new-to-the-world high-technology
products
5-7
Limitations
New product and its pricing are never exactly like
that to which the analogy is drawn

Market and competitive conditions may vary from
when the analogous product was launched
5-8
Advantage
Is quite accurate when there is sucient
forecasting experience in known market
Limitation
Dicult to defend against evidence based
methods
5-9
Done:
Under controlled experimental conditions
In live test markets with real advertising and
promotion and distribution in stores
Limitations of test markets

Expensive to conduct
Competitors can engage in marketing tactics to
mislead the company
5-10
Chain ratios and indices

Market potential is estimated and multiplied by
fractional factors
Predict the portion of the overall market potential that

one rm or product can expect to obtain
5-11
Explains the adoption of an innovative

product or service over time among a group
of potential buyers
Useful to managers in predicting the likely
adoption rate for:
New and innovative goods or services
5-12
Attitudinal changes experienced by

individuals from:
The time they rst hear about a new product, until
they adopt it
5-13
Speed of the process depends on:

Risk
Relative advantage
Relative simplicity
Compatibility with previously adopted ideas and
behavior
Extent to which its trial can be accomplished on a
small-scale basis
Ease with which the central idea of the new
product can be communicated
5-14
Innovators: Venturesome than later adopters

Receptive to new ideas and have high incomes
Reduces the risk of a loss arising from an early adoption
Early adopters: Opinion leaders

Serve as vital links to members of the early
majority group
Participate more in community organizations
than do later adopters
5-15
Early majority: Display less leadership than

early adopters
Active in community aairs
Do not like to take unnecessary risks
Want to be sure that a new product will prove
successful before they adopt it
5-16
Late majority: Adopt a new product because

they are forced to do so for either economic
or social reasons
Laggards: Participate less in community
matters than members of the other groups
and stubbornly resist change
5-17
5-18
Psychological biases
Common sources of error
Forecasters are subject to anchoring bias
Capacity constraints are sometimes
misinterpreted as forecasts
Incentive pay
Unstated but implicit assumptions can overstate a
well-intentioned forecast
5-19
Keys to good forecasting

Make explicit the assumptions on which the
forecast is based
Use multiple methods
5-20
Four commonly used market knowledge

systems
Internal records systems
Marketing databases
Competitive intelligence systems
Systems to organize client contact
5-21
Intended to address carefully dened

marketing problems or opportunities
Questions to be asked by a critical user of
marketing research
What are the research objectives? Will the data to
be collected meet them?
5-22
Are the data sources appropriate? Is secondary
data used? Qualitative or quantitative?

Is the research designed well?
Are the planned analyses appropriate
5-23

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forecasting and prepares an overall forecast

respondents and increasingly done online

that to which the analogy is drawn

when the analogous product was launched

forecasting experience in known market

Limitations of test markets

mislead the company

Chain ratios and indices

Predict the portion of the overall market potential that

Explains the adoption of an innovative

Attitudinal changes experienced by

Speed of the process depends on:

Innovators: Venturesome than later adopters

Early adopters: Opinion leaders

Early majority: Display less leadership than

successful before they adopt it

Late majority: Adopt a new product because

Keys to good forecasting

Four commonly used market knowledge

Intended to address carefully dened

be collected meet them?

Are the data sources appropriate? Is secondary

data used? Qualitative or quantitative?

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