Session 3

Tools and Technologies for water resources

planning and climate change adaptation
Dr. Chusit Apirumanekul / Dr. Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos / Miaojie Sun

Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation for Bhutan

26th February, 2015
Bangkok, Stockholm Environment Institute, Asia Centre
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Objectives
To achieve basic understanding on steps in water
resources planning
To have better understanding on tool/technology
that can be used for water resource planning and
climate change adaptation
To jointly assess the impacts of climate changes
on water resources in Nepal
To brainstorm the options to address the
identified issues for planning processes
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Contents
Section 1 : Introduction to Integrated Water
Resources Management (IWRM) and decision
support tools
Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRM
Section 3 : Group works

Background of IWRM
Water is a key driver of economic
and social development
Drivers such as demography,
economic growth and climatic
variability increase the stress on
water resources
Decision makers have difficulties on
water allocation
The basis of IWRM is that different
uses of water are interdependent
Integrated management considers
different uses of water resources
together

Basis of IWRM
The basis of IWRM is that different uses of
water are considered together.
Navigation

Industrial

Flood protection

Mining

Irrigation

Electricity

Domestic and commercial

Fishery

Environmental control / ecosystem Salinity

Recreation / tourism

etc

IWRM definition
IWRM is a process which
promotes the coordinated
development and management
of water, land and related
resources, in order to maximize
the resultant economic and social
welfare in an equitable manner
without compromising the
sustainability of vital ecosystems.
GWP, TAC Background Paper No. 4: Integrated
Water Resources Management
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IWRM definition
IWRM (Bogardi and Nachtnebel 1994; Kindler 2000)
is a systematic approach to planning and
management that considers a range of supply-side
and demand-side processes and actions, and
incorporates stakeholder participation in decision
processes.

http://www.dwaf.gov.za/iwrm/contents/about/what_is_iwrm.asp 7
(adapted from GWP (2010))

Driving forces for water resources

Population growth: more people, more water demands
Urbanization: migration from rural to urban areas leading to
water supply and waste water treatment issues
Economic growth: increased demand for economic activities
and land use change
Water quality: pollution from industrial, agricultural and
municipal sources
Climate variability: more intense floods and droughts
increase vulnerability of people (uncertainty about water
cycle regimes)

The IWRM Planning Cycle

Establish status and
overall goals

Decision Support
Tools

Monitor and evaluate

progress

Communication
and stakeholder
engagement

Water resources issues

Goals and progress towards
IWRM framework
Recent international
developments

Build commitment to
reform process

Indicators of progress towards

IWRM and water
infrastructure development
framework

Political will
Awareness
Multi stakeholder dialogue

IWRM has no fixed

beginnings or endings

Analyse gaps

Implement frameworks

IWRM framework
Framework for water
infrastructure development
Build capacity

Regulatory
instruments
standards, land use
plan, subsidies,
charges, taxes and
etc.

Allocation and
conflict resolutions

Political adoption
Stakeholder acceptance
Identifying financing

Water resources management

function required
Management potentials and
constraints

Prepare strategy and

action plan

Build commitment to
actions

Data collection
and data analysis

Enabling environment
Institutional roles
Management instruments
Links to national policies

Source : http://www.gwp.org/en/The-Challenge/What-is-IWRM/IWRM-Application/

What are Decision Support Tools - DST?

Interactive procedures, software and
databases to assist in making informed
decisions

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Decision Support Tool (DST)

There is always a wide range of data available to the
decision-maker
Decision Support Tool is to provide information in a form
that readily supports the decision
Water resource management meteorological data,
hydrologic data, geologic data, landscape, landuse,
population and etc.
The use of DST to assist in water resource management
issues constitute some amounts of work being
performed on developing computer based decision
support tools to facilitate the analysis processes.
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DST to understand the integration

in the natural systems:
between land and water
between rainfall, surface water and
groundwater
between water quantity and quality
between upstream and downstream
between the freshwater system and the
coastal waters
Reference: IWRM at a Glance. Global Water Parnership GWP.
(http://www.gwp.org/Global/The%20Challenge/Resource%20material/IWRM%20at%20a%20glance.pdf)

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Functions of DST
Organize data (databases)
Visualize data

Analyze
System Modeling
Communication
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Examples of Decision Support Tools

Geographical Information Systems
Geodatabases
Remote Sensing
Spatial Analysis
Web-visualization

Spatial Analysis of flow Accumulation in Ayeyarwady Delta. In: Theilen-Willige, B., &
Pararas-Carayannis, G. (2009). Natural hazard assessment of SW Myanmar-a contribution of
remote sensing and GIS methods to the detection of areas vulnerable to earthquakes and
tsunami/cyclone flooding. Science of Tsunami Hazards, 28(2), 108

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Examples of Decision Support Tools

Hydrological Modeling
River Flow
Groundwater Flow
Water Quality
Flood
Water use
Reservoir Management
WEAP and MODFLOW modelling. Available at:
http://www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Wasser/Projekte/abges
chlossen/TZ/Acsad_dss/dss_fb_en.html
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Examples of Decision Support Tools

Climate Change Models
Trends in temperature
and rainfall
Vulnerability to climate
change (based on social
and economic data)

16

Practical use of DST in IWRM

Will there be some

climate change?

If we change the crop, what is the

effect on river sediments?
If we deforest an area, what is the
effect on river flow and sediments?

And if we build a new water

infrastructure, what are the
benefits and costs?
What happens if we add an
irrigation project?
Considering the expected city growth, When will
there be conflict with upstream water use?

Reference: eWater Source Australia's national hydrological modelling platform (http://www.ewater.com.au/products/ewater-source/)

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Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for

IWRM
1. Structural measures
Flood control structures
Water harvesting

2. Non-structural measures
Modelling
Remote sensing and Geographical Information
System (GIS)
Weather indexes
Early warning system
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Structural measure
Viewing as structural hard-engineered interventions, such as
floodway and reservoir, as well as more natural measures, such
as wetlands and natural buffers
Reducing flood and drought hazards by controlling the flow of
water in rivers and streams.
Tending to transfer flood risk from one location only to increase
it in another
Remaining some residual risk of
flooding
Keeping water away from people

19

Structural measures Flood control

structures (1/2)
Flood Storage / Reservoir
Confinement of flow by
dyke, levee or embankment
Channel improvement
Bypass channels or
floodways
Drainage of flood water by
pumping

NICOLAS ASFOURI AFP/Getty

Images

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Structural measures Flood control

structures (2/2)

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Structural measure - Rainwater

harvesting (1/5)
The term rainwater harvesting refers to reuse
of stored water, including water purification,
and can form part of a sustainable drainage
system
Most commonly, reuse will be for purposes
which are less sensitive to water quality (such
as irrigation, washing or toilet flushing).

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Structural measure - Rainwater

harvesting (2/5)
Provisioning

Regulating

Can increase crop productivity,

food supply and income
Can increase water and fodder
for livestock and poultry
Can increase infiltration, thus
recharging shallow
groundwater sources and river
base flow
Improves productive habitats,
and increases species diversity
in flora and fauna

Can affect the temporal

distribution of water in
landscape
Reduces fast flows and
reduces incidences of flooding
Reduces soil erosion
Bridges water supply in
droughts and dry spells
Stop polluted runoff before
reaching waterbodies

Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st
Century (World Bank, 2011)

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Structural measure - Rainwater

harvesting (3/5)
The storage of rainwater in
numerous small tanks helps in
reducing peak runoff and
controlling overflowing of
drainage infrastructure.
This is more cost effective than
storing rainwater in larger
reservoirs or improving the
carrying capacity of the
drainage infrastructure.
This however requires
effective public participation
and awareness generation.
Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk
Management for the 21st Century (World Bank, 2011)
http://hk-magazine.com/cityliving/article/underground-hong-kong

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Rainwater harvesting (4/5)

Example in Brazil
Mountainous context:
Few plain places with deep
soil, to dig larger ponds
Difficult access for tractors
Embankment ponds in steep
slopes can break and offer
more risks
Many small scattered
embankment ponds may offer
less risk
Ponds along roads to facilitate
the access

Source: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/14270801

Source :
http://projetobarraginhas.blogspot.com/2012/09/fazendasprodutoras-de-agua-primeira.html

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Rainwater harvesting (5/5) - Household

level
Rainfall

Use

Roof top
collection

Open space
harvesting

Filtering
chamber

Groundwat
er recharge

Direct
storage
http://www.bloggang.com/vi
ewblog.php?id=lifeinbelgique
&date=01-062011&group=27&gblog=1

Source: Chennai Metro Water.

http://chennaimetrowater.gov.in/departments/rainwater.htm

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Non-structural measure
Based on the concept of risk awareness how to live with flood and drought
Preventing flood and drought damage based
on acceptance them as natural processes that
cannot be completely controlled
NOT related to infrastructure
Ex:
Changing crop patterns
Keeping people away from water
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Example of flood routing models

Hydrologic routing (simple) balancing of inflow,
outflow and volume of storage through use of
S
continuity equation
I O

Hydraulic routing (complex) more accurate and is

based on solution of
continuity equation
momentum equation
1 Q 1 Q 2
y

g g ( S o S f ) 0

A t A x A
x

Q A

0
x t
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Hydrological and Hydraulics model

Hydrological model
Simulation of processes in turning
rainfall into surface runoff and
simplified channel runoff

Hydraulics model
Simulation of flood propagation
in the channel (open channel /
closed conduit) which may
include backwater effects, flow
through hydraulics structure and
2-D flows)

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Flood modelling system

Hydrological / RainfallRunoff Model
Rainfall analysis 50-year return period rainfall event

1D&2D Hydraulic
model / flood routing

Flood map (50-year

return period)
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Crest Model for Bhutan

CREST Coupled Routing and Excess Storage
Hydrological Model for each cell in a raster
Weather + Surface characteristics
Water Balance
Excess of water is routed downstream to next cell
Source: Crest 2.1. User Manual. National Weather Center. Norman, USA. 2015.
http://hydro.ou.edu/files/Crest_Workshops/CRESTv2.1/CREST-User-Manual-v2.1_Fortran.pdf

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Crest Viewer - Bhutan

Available at: http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanCrest/#

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Case Study Impact of Climate Change

in Bhutan Rivers
Simulated climate change of + 1.5 oC in 2050
and 2 scenarios of +2.5 oC and + 4.9 oC for 2100
HBV (Hydrologiska Byrns
Vattenbalansavdelning) Hydrological Model
Distributed model (cell by cell analysis)
Input: rainfall, temperature and land use
Calibrated with gauging stations
Output for each cell: stream flow, evaporation, soil
moisture, groundwater storage
Beldring, S. 2011. Climate change impacts on the flow regimes of rivers in Bhutan and possible
consequences for hydropower development. NVE.
33
Available at: webby.nve.no/publikasjoner/report/2011/report2011_04.pdf

Results
Change in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2050,
model Echam A2

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Results
Change in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2100,
model Echam A2

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NON-STRUCTURAL : GIS

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What is GIS?
Geographic Spatial data related to the Earth
Information Other attribute data in tabulate
as information about each of the spatial
feature

System A technology that allows

you to visualize, question, analyze,
and interpret data
Source:
http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/
http://www.esri.com/what-is-gis

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How data is stored?

Layers
Attributes in the Geodatabase

Source:
http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/
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Case Study in Bhutan

Glaciers have retreated by
20-30 meters annually
especially in the Bhutan
Himalayas, leading to a
rough estimation of about
500 meters retreat in the
last 25 years.
Source: Chhophel, Mr. Karma G. Climate
change adaptation and glof risk reduction in
the region and beyond: current developments
and opportunities. In: Glacial Lake Outburst
Flood (GLOF) Reducing Risks and Ensuring
Preparedness. 5-7 December, 2013.
Proceedings Summary.
Karma. 2008. Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake
Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan. Department
39
of Geology and Mines. NCAP.

Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan

Mountain Geoportal. Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan App. Servir Himalaya.

40

http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanGlacier/index.html#

WEAP : WATER EVALUATION AND

PLANNING SYSTEM
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 Integrates stream flow and water demands

Exploration of future scenarios for decision support

Changes in water use

Strategies for allocation
Structural measures (e.g., reservoirs)
Climate change

Many sub-models (glacial melting, finance, groundwater,

hydropower, water quality, among others)

Developed by Stockholm Environment Institute

Free license for government, academic and non-profit
organizations in developing countries
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Available at: http://www.weap21.org/

Case Study WEAP model for

Andes mountains of Peru
(Rmac and Santa Basins)
Modeling the
hydrological
impacts of
climate change
in glacial
mountains
Andes in Peru. Photo: SEI/IRD - 2010
SEI and IRD. 2010. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology.
43
World Bank Reports. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2278

Results of the model

Different scenarios of climate change in
Accelerated glacier melting
Changes in mountain wetlands 2040
+ 0.5 degrees
hydrology (environmental impact)
+ 2 degrees
Average discharge decrease
Reduction in peak flow discharge

Changes in glaciers in 2036 with

+ 2 degrees celsius
Reduction of 21% of discharge in La Balsa sub-basin

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WEAP : WATER CITY MANAGEMENT

BANGKOK CASE
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Water Supply
MWA water supply
Sources of surface water supply

Source of GW supply

Chao Phraya River : 60 m3/s

Mae Klong Dam : 45 m3/s
Residential, Industrial and
others

Groundwater supply
Unlimited supply
Private withdrawal in any
province
Percentage of non-residential
water supplies from MWA

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Water demand
Water demand from residence is estimated
by LPCD (litre per capita per day) multiplied
by 365 days (200 LPCD)
Other water demands (business, industrial,
public and others) is obtained from MWA
water sale by sectors in Nonthaburi and
Samutprakarn
LPCD in Bangkok has been increasing

Water consumption = Fn (household size, rising income and water price)

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NON-STRUCTURAL : WEATHER
INDEXES (DROUGHT INDEX)
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Approaches to analyze droughts

Rainfall

Meteorological

Evaporation
Runoff
generation

Hydrological

Stream flow

Water use

Vegetational
Socioeconomic

Water in the soil

Means to access water

Source: Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int., 10:111-120.

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SPEI Standardized Precipitation Index

Precipitation Evapotranspiration
(calculated from temperature)
SPEI

SPEI Values

WMO. 2012. Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide.

Available at: http://www.wamis.org/agm/pubs/SPI/WMO_1090_EN.pdf
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Monitoring SPEI - November 2014

Global drought monitor.

http://sac.csic.es/spei/map/maps.html

NON-STRUCTURAL : EARLY
WARNING SYSTEM
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Flash Flood Monitoring

Mekong River Commission Flash Flood
Guidance system
To provide real-time informational guidance
products for flash flood warning (diagnostic
system, NOT prediction)
A rapid evaluation on the potential for a flash
flood for a specific location
Flash Flood Guidance = Satellite rainfall
estimate + telemetry system + soil moisture
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Soil Water Saturation Fraction

Satellite Estimate Rainfall

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1-hour

3-hour

Flash Flood Guidance

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Group exercises (60+30 mins)

1. Divide into 3 groups (Southwest, Middle and East) and
discuss on characteristics, climate pattern and climate
change impacts on climate pattern (5 mins)
2. List out the impacts of CC on water resources issues in
details (10 mins)
3. Discuss on the potential tools/technologies (10 mins)
4. Identify gaps on those identified tools/technologies (15
mins)
5. Discuss on potential solutions to address the gaps (20 mins)
6. Report to plenary + comments (30 mins : 10 mins each)

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