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PREFACE

PREFACE
As the world has become more complex and information more abundant,
decisions
have become more difficult; as the pace of change and the range of choice
have increased,
decisions have to be made more often. Yet, most of us still make decisions
with no more
knowledge about decision processes than our ancestors had in a simpler
age, hundreds of
years ago.
Thanks to mathematicians, economists, psychologists, and decision analysts,
we now
know a good deal about decision making. We know something about what
constitute good
decision processes, and we know that good decision processes tend to lead
to good
outcomes. For example, those who employ good decision processes tend to
get higher
grades and earn higher salaries (Larrick, Nisbett, & Morgan, 1993); and,
when decision
makers' judgments are incorporated into decision models, the models tend
to outperform
the decision makers, themselves (Dawes, 1979, 1989).
One study (Herek, Janis, & Huth, 1987) evaluated major decisions made by
the United
States government over several years. For each decision, independent
ratings were made
of (a) the quality of the decision process and (b) the extent to which U. S.
objectives were
met. The correlation between these two measures was a whopping +.63!
(This is better
than the correlation between the heights of parents and the heights of their
children.) This
indicates that, even at the level of governmental decisions, where so many
things can go
wrong, good decision processes are strongly related to good decision
outcomes.
We also know that good decision processes can be learned, and we know
something
about how to teach them. For example, economics professors and students,
who have
formal training in decision making, are more likely than others to decide
rationally, even

when the decisions are not closely related to the content of economics
courses (Larrick,
Morgan, & Nisbett, 1990). (See also Whimby & Whimby, 1975).
Yet we are not communicating what we know as effectively as we might. At
the
college level, courses in decision psychology are typically focussed on the
presentation of
research findings and theoretical explanations of these findings, providing,
essentially,
declarative, or factual, knowledge. Instruction in good decision-making
practice is
ancillary, at best, and actual practice in decision-making skills, rare in such
courses. While
courses of this kind are necessary, they aren't sufficient. Only the
exceptional student can
pass from declarative knowledge to procedural, or performance, knowledge
without help.
We need another kind of course, both for the students who take the courses
that focus
on declarative knowledge and for those who don't. Such a course should
provide for