UNMANNED VEHICLES

FORECAST
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Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Table of Contents
Product Support Features
Customer Service Guide
E-Market Alert Newsletter Instructions
Query Service Instructions
Facts About Your Marketing Service
Spreadsheets

Index

Cross Reference Index

Programs

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PL

Tab A - Lead Sheet Airborne Targets, Decoys & Cruise Missiles

AQM-37/AQM-39
BQM-167 Skeeter
BTT-3 Banshee
Chinese Aerial Targets
EADS Target Systems
GQM-163A SSST
Harpy
HTD-1 Skua
J/AQM-1 (Expendable Target Drone)
Miniature Air Launched Decoy (MALD)
Mirach 100
MQM/BQM-74 Chukar
Multi-Stage Supersonic Target
Pakistani Target Drones
Pilotless Target Aircraft
QF-4 Phantom/QF-16
Remotely Piloted Vehicle Target
Russian Target Drones
Russian UAV Programs
Snipe
U.S. Helicopter Target
UCAV

Tab B - Lead Sheet Airborne Surveillance/Reconnaissance Systems

A160 Hummingbird
BREVEL
Camcopter
Civilian UAVs
Eagle Eye
Fire Scout VTUAV
HALE UAVs
Hunter
Hypersonic Drones
Indian UAVs
Integrator

2013

February 2013

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Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Table of Contents

PL

Israeli VTOL UAVs

J/AQM-6
KG-135 Sky Robot
Korean UAV Programs
Mirach Series
MQ-1C Gray Eagle/Sky Warrior
Pioneer
Predator/Reaper
Ranger ADS 95
Raven
RQ-3A Darkstar/RQ-170 Sentinel
RQ-4A Global Hawk
Searcher/Heron
Shadow 200 TUAV
South African UAVs
SPERWER
Supplemental Programs - Unmanned Vehicles: Airborne Surveillance/Reconnaissance Systems
Swedish UAV Programs
Telemos
Watchkeeper
Tab C - Lead Sheet Additional Worldwide Unmanned Airborne Vehicle (UAV) Programs
Additional Worldwide Unmanned Airborne Vehicle (UAV) Programs

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Tab D - Lead Sheet Ground-Based Security and Support Systems

Allen-Vanguard UGVs
Andros Family
MDARS-E
Security Robots
TSR 200
Wasp/Hornet
Wheelbarrow Series

Tab E - Lead Sheet Ground-Based Mine Countermeasures/Reconnaissance Systems

British UGVs
French UGVs
Manportable Robotic System
Mine Guzzler
Tactical Unmanned Ground Vehicle (TUGV)
VTC (Vehicle Teleoperation Capability)
Tab F - Lead Sheet Additional Worldwide Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) Programs
Additional Worldwide Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) Programs
Tab G - Lead Sheet Sea-Based Search and Surveillance Systems
Archerfish
Double Eagle
EMD
Naval Mine Disposal Charges
PAP 104
Pluto
REMUS/Minesniper
Seafox/Seawolf
U.S. UUVs

February 2013

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

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Table of Contents

PL

Tab H - Lead Sheet Sea-Based Targets and Torpedoes

A-184/Black Shark
A-244 Series/Flash Black
CALAS
DM2A4 Torpedo
Japanese Torpedoes
Mk 30 ASW Target
Mk 39 ASW Target (EMATT)
Mk 46 NEARTIP/Mk 54 Torpedo
Mk 48 ADCAP Torpedo
MU-90 Impact
Russian Torpedoes
Scutter
SLAT/Torpedo Defense
South Korean Torpedoes
Spearfish
Stingray
SUBTAS
Torpedo 2000

Tab I - Lead Sheet Additional Worldwide Unmanned Sea-Based Vehicle Programs

Additional Worldwide Unmanned Sea-Based Vehicle Programs

Market Analyses

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Analysis 1 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems

Analysis 2 - The Market for Aerial Targets

Appendices

Appendix I - User Inventory

Appendix II - Unmanned Air Vehicle Guidance
Appendix III - Consolidated Production Statistics
Appendix IV - Recommended Web Sites
Appendix V - Land and Seaborne Targets
Appendix VI - Unmanned Vehicle Archives

2013

February 2013

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

BQM-167 Skeeter
Outlook

Unit Production Forecast

2013-2022

Production continuing

CEi providing BQM-167 and BQM-177 aerial targets to

the U.S. military

160

140

Foreign militaries are ordering CEi's target drones

Sweden is a recent customer for CEi's aerial targets

CEi and ATK working on Multi-Stage Supersonic

Target

120

100

80

60

40

Kratos has purchased CEi

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

41

68

70

100

103

117

123

149

151

156

Units

Units

PL

20

Orientation

Description. Subsonic aerial target.

Sponsor.
U.S. Air Force Materiel Command,
Eglin AFB, Florida.

Price Range. The unit price of the BQM-167A

Skeeter is $600,000 to $900,000 depending on the
annual quantity.

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Status. In production for the United States and for

foreign clients.

Application. Subsonic, turbojet-powered unmanned

air vehicles utilized as aerial targets and for
reconnaissance and
electronic
countermeasures
missions.

Total Produced.
Approximately 322 BQM-167
Skeeters were in production or had been completed by
the end of 2012.

Contractors

Prime

Composite Engineering Inc (CEi)

http://www.cei.to, 5381 Raley Blvd, Sacramento, CA 95838 United States,

Tel: + 1 (916) 991-1990, Email: targetinfo@cei.to, Prime

Subcontractor
Herley Lancaster

http://www.herley.com, 3061 Industry Dr, Lancaster, PA 17603 United States,

Tel: + 1 (717) 397-2777, Fax: + 1 (717) 397-7079, Email: umbarger@herley.com
(Microwave Hardware)

Microturbo Inc

http://www.safran-na.com, 2707 Forum Dr, Grand Prairie, TX 75052 United States,

Tel: + 1 (972) 606-7611, Fax: + 1 (972) 606-7181 (TRI 60-5 Turbojet)

2013

January 2013

Page 2

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

BQM-167 Skeeter
Rockwell Collins

http://www.rockwellcollins.com, 3721 Macintosh Dr, Vint Hill Tech Park, Warrenton, VA

20187 United States, Tel: + 1 (540) 428-3300, Fax: + 1 (540) 428-3301 (Sensor Suite;
Flight Control Unit)

Comprehensive information on Contractors can be found in Forecast International's "International Contractors" series. For a detailed description,
go to www.forecastinternational.com (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call + 1 (203) 426-0800.
Contractors are invited to submit updated information to Editor, International Contractors, Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown,
CT 06470, USA; rich.pettibone@forecast1.com

Technical Data
Metric
BQM-177A

U.S.
BQM-167A

U.S.
BQM-177A

Dimensions
Length
Diameter
Wingspan
Weight, Dry
Weight, Maximum

6.09 m
60.96 cm
3.2 m
295 kg
649 kg

5.18 m
Not Available
2.13 m
236 kg
635 kg

20 ft
24 in
10.5 ft
650 lb
2,050 lb

17 ft
Not Available
7 ft
520 lb
1,400 lb

Performance
Speed (max)
Altitude range
Endurance

Mach 0.93
15.2-15,240 m
3 hr

PL

Metric
BQM-167A

Mach 1.1
3.4-13,716 m
1+ hr

Mach 0.93
50-51,000 ft
3 hr

Mach 1.1
6.6-45,000 ft
1+ hr

and countermeasures and scoring devices. The Skeeter

can also tow other targets.

Control & Guidance.

The Skeeter can be
preprogrammed or operated manually via radio
command by a ground controller.

Launcher Mode. Skeeter can be air-launched from

suitably modified aircraft or ground-launched with the
aid of a solid-propellant jet-assisted takeoff booster.

This aerial target can carry a variety of target payloads,

including radar enhancers, infrared signature generators,

Recovery. The air vehicle is either recovered via a

parachute system or retrieved from the sea.

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Propulsion. A single Microturbo TRI60-5 turbojet

powers the Skeeter.

BQM-167 Skeeter
Source: CEi

Variants/Upgrades
There is a single version of the Skeeter in production,
with another in development. Further additions in the
future are likely.

January 2013

Explanation of Symbols. To aid in identification

and comprehension, the following table explains the
U.S. Department of Defense's coding system, as
established in July 1963.

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Page 3

BQM-167 Skeeter
Status Prefix
J = Special Test, Temporary
N = Special Test, Permanent
X = Experimental
Y = Prototype
Z = Planning

2.

Launch Environment
A = Air
B = Multiple
C = Coffin
F = Individual
H = Silo-Stored
L = Silo-Launched
M = Mobile
P = Soft Pad
R = Ship
U = Underwater

4.

Vehicle Type
M = Guided Missile
N = Probe
R = Rocket (no guidance)

5.

Numerical
(see below)

The status prefix is usually dropped once the system

begins operation. The numerical segment of each
designation is established by type as it is considered by
the U.S. armed services. For example, BQM-167 is the
designation for the Skeeter. The letter B means multiple
launcher configurations, Q identifies it as a drone, and
M indicates that it is a guided missile. It was the 167th
such system designated by the military.

Mission
D = Decoy
E = Special Electronic
G = Surface Attack

PL

3.

I = Intercept Aerial
Q = Drone
T = Training
U = Underwater Attack
W = Weather

1.

Program Review

$6.6 million and called for the delivery of two

preproduction AFSATs, flight demonstration and
support, a target test set, and associated data. This
contract ran for about 22 months.
Eventually, the U.S. Air Force gave the designation
BQM-167A Skeeter to the AFSAT.

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Background. The U.S. military has long met its

aerial target requirements from local sources. The
U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Army all used the BQM-34
Firebee, although the primary operator of the MQM-107
was the Army. Both are subscale, subsonic aerial
targets. These systems long served the U.S. military,
but modifications will no longer enable these targets to
meet evolving training needs.

New Target for New Threats

AFSAT. In late 2001, the U.S. Air Force announced

that it wanted to procure a new subsonic, subscale aerial
target. Known as the Air Force Subscale Aerial Target
(AFSAT), this system will replace the existing BQM-34
and MQM-107 targets.
The USAF wanted a system with greater endurance than
those already in service about 60 minutes at
15,000 feet. The target's minimum speed would be
250 knots, and its maximum speed would be Mach 0.9.
The AFSAT is required to have a 30-minute endurance
at 15,000 feet and be able to operate at altitudes
between 50 and 50,000 feet. Eventually, the Air Force
would like the target to be capable of operating at
60,000 feet.
A 150-pound payload capacity under each wing was
required, or 100 pounds internally. The target was to be
able to sustain a 6g turn.
A Request for Proposals was issued on February 28,
2002. A single demonstration contract was awarded the
following July to Composite Engineering Inc (CEi),
Sacramento, California. This contract was worth

2013

CEi Buys Raytheon Plant. In late 2003, CEi

announced it had purchased Raytheon's aerial target
manufacturing unit.
CEi moved the Raytheon
production line from Wichita, Kansas, to its
70,000-square-foot plant in Sacramento, but maintained
an office with about a dozen engineers in Wichita.
Raytheon officials told the Wichita Eagle that the aerial
target business no longer fit its business strategy in the
wake of increasing competition from smaller
companies. With the acquisition of Raytheon's target
drone business, CEi became a subcontractor to Orbital
Sciences Corp in an aerial target project for the
U.S. Navy.
BQM-74 Follow-On. The Pentagon is procuring a new
subsonic aerial target (SSAT) to replace the BQM-34
and BQM-74 drones. Names for this new system
include the Target 21 and the BQM-74 Follow-On.
This project is not related to the Air Force Subscale
Aerial Target (AFSAT) program.
In 1999, the Pentagon approved Target 21 concept
exploration. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman
received concept contracts worth $1.8 million in March
of that year. The new target would be compatible with

January 2013

Page 4

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

BQM-167 Skeeter
existing ground control stations and systems used at
U.S. Navy ranges.
Two versions of the Target 21 were under examination
for possible procurement: Target 2101, which would
replace the BQM-74; and Target 2102, which would
supersede the BQM-34. Target 2101's primary mission
was to support basic test and training needs, particularly
in replicating small, subsonic Anti-Ship Cruise Missile
(ASCM) threat systems. Target 2102's primary mission
was to provide air combat maneuvering and complex
ASCM subsonic threat replication.

made mainly of carbon-fiber composites. The aerial

target is powered by a ventrally mounted Microturbo
TRI 60 turbojet engine. The BQM-167A can be air- or
ground-launched.
Production of the BQM-167A began in 2004. This
aerial target is used primarily for test and evaluation of
air defense systems, as well as air-to-air missile training.
In addition to the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Army plans
to purchase this aerial target.
The export version is the BQM-167i.
BQM-177A. The BQM-177A began as the X model of
the BQM-167. The BQM-177A is the U.S. Navy's
follow-on to the BQM-74 target drone.
The
BQM-177A features a new fuselage with reduced drag.
This target drone can travel at a speed of Mach 1.1 at a
low altitude but can also operate at altitudes above
40,000 feet. The BQM-177A has an endurance of 1+
hours and can perform sustained turns exceeding 6g.

Delays soon occurred. The U.S. Navy upgraded its

BQM-74s to meet immediate needs. U.S. procurement
switched to the E model.

Meeting New SSAT Need

PL

A program definition and risk reduction phase was

planned for FY00, followed by engineering and
manufacturing development in FY01. The U.S. Navy
wanted to begin Target 21 production in FY04 and
achieve Initial Operational Capability in FY06. Plans
called for the U.S. to purchase between 80 and 100
Target 21s per year.

The contract for a new SSAT was awarded by the U.S.

Navy to CEi in January 2011. The contract includes the
first two production lots. The U.S. Navy plans to begin
fielding this new target drone in 2015.

SA
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In January 2011, Composite Engineering Inc won the

contract to provide the Navy with a new SSAT. Three
offers were received: CEi with a modified BQM-167;
Northrop Grumman with a version of the BQM-74; and
SELEX Galileo, in partnership with DRS
Technologies Inc, with a model of its Mirach 100.

Work on the BQM-177A began in 2007, and its first

flight took place in 2008 (12 months after contract
award). The BQM-177A uses 60-70 percent of the
components from the BQM-167A drone, including its
avionics and TRI60-5+ turbojet engine.

The BQM-167X uses the same engine as the A model

but moves it to inside the airframe. The target drone
also incorporates a redesigned wing. The modifications
allow CEi to offer a smaller, lighter, and faster target.
The target can fly at an altitude of 6.6 feet while
traveling at a speed of Mach 0.9.

The contract with CEi includes the first two production

lots. The U.S. Navy plans to begin fielding its new
SSAT in 2015. Until this new target is available, the
U.S. Navy will continue to rely on the BQM-74E drone
built by Northrop Grumman.
This version is designated BQM-177A.

Air Vehicle Models. Only a single version of the

Skeeter is in production the BQM-167A aerial target
drone. A multirole UAV version is being proposed.

BQM-167A Skeeter. The BQM-167A's layout is

similar to that of the MQM-107. The air vehicle is

January 2013

The export version is the BQM-177i.

Firejet. The Firejet was not developed under a
government contract and is the small target drone
offered by CEi.
Technical Data
Metric
Length
3.3 m
Wingspan
2m
Weight, Dry
59 kg
Weight, Max.
150 kg
Speed
470 knots
Altitude, Max.
9,144 m
Endurance
60 min.

U.S.
10.75 ft
6.5 ft
130 lb
330 lb
470 knots
35,000 ft
60 min.

This is a flexible target system able to fill a variety of

mission roles including anti-aircraft artillery and
air-to-air missile testing.

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Page 5

BQM-167 Skeeter

Related News
Kratos Acquiring Composite Engineering Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc has announced a
$155 million cash and stock deal to acquire CEi. Kratos will acquire 100 percent of the stock of CEi. Kratos
provides electronics and avionics that are used on board CEi air vehicles. Kratos also provides ground flight control
stations and electronics for the command and control of CEi aerial systems. CEi's product line includes the
BQM-167A/I, the BQM-177A/I, and the Firejet.
In calendar year 2011, CEi generated revenue of $94 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $16 million,
generating an annual organic growth rate in excess of 25 percent over 2010. The purchase will be paid by Kratos in
$135 million in cash and $20 million in Kratos stock. (Sacramento Bee, 7/12)
Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: For additional news, go to the on-line E-Market Alert page located in the Intelligence Center at
www.forecastinternational.com and click on the links to the products you subscribe to.

Funding

PL

Procurement funding for the BQM-167A Skeeter is part of the USAF's Target Drone funding line. This line
includes funding for the QF-4 and QF-16 full-scale aerial targets. Procurement of the older BQM-34 Firebee and
MQM-107 aerial target drones has ceased. Drone procurement funding for the U.S. Navy is located under the Aerial
Targets line, and for the Army under the Air Defense Targets line.
The U.S. Navy is funding development of a new subsonic aerial target drone. The SSAT will provide a replacement
for the BQM-74 aerial target.
U.S. FUNDING

FY10
AMT

FY11
QTY

FY11
AMT

FY12
QTY

FY12
AMT

FY13
(Req)
QTY

FY13
(Req)
AMT

38

74.5
36.5

40

85.0
39.4

26

59.3
28.8

30

129.9
31.8

72.1
7.4

68.3
19.3

44.7
11.3

59.2
15.2

SA
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FY10
QTY

Proc.
USAF
Target Drones
BQM-167
RDT&E
U.S. Navy
Target Systems
SSAT
All $ are in millions.

SSAT PE#0604258N Target Systems Development. This is funding development of a BQM-74 replacement.

Contracts/Orders & Options

On Sep 6, 2012, Composite Engineering Inc, Sacramento, CA, was awarded a $7,317,122 indefinite
delivery/indefinite quantity, firm-fixed-price contract to procure 54 peculiar reparable spares for the Air Force
Subscale Aerial Target BQM-167. The location of the performance is Sacramento. Work is to be completed by
Nov 9, 2015. The contracting activity is AFLCMC/EBYK, Eglin Air Force Base, FL. Contract Number
FA8678-12-D-0239

In Jul 2012, Composite Engineering Inc won a contract to provide aerial target drones to the Swedish military. The
contract is worth $11.9 million and is with the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration. Sweden will use the
target drones at its Vidsel Test Range. CEi will deliver an undisclosed number of target drones and associated
hardware. Deliveries under the initial award are scheduled to be completed in 2013; in addition to the baseline
contract, options exercisable for hardware through 2017 are valued at up to an additional $8.3 million.
On Feb 24, 2012, Composite Engineering Inc, Sacramento, received a $32,701,017 firm-fixed-price contract to
procure a quantity of 35 BQM-167As, also known as the Air Force Subscale Aerial Target. The location of the

2013

January 2013

Page 6

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

BQM-167 Skeeter
performance is Sacramento. Work is expected to be completed by Apr 30, 2014. AAC/EBYK, Eglin Air Force
Base, is the contracting activity. Contract Number FA8678-12-C-0202
In Jul 2011, the government of Singapore awarded Composite Engineering Inc a multimillion dollar contract to
supply high-speed aerial target drones to Singapore's Ministry of Defense. In addition to delivering the BQM-177i
target drones, the contract will encompass all requisite ground support equipment, training, logistics support, and
spares. The target system will be provided as the international variant of the next-generation high-subsonic subscale
aerial target system recently selected by the U.S. Navy.

On Jan 28, 2011, Composite Engineering Inc, Sacramento, won a $31,461,842 cost-plus-incentive-fee contract for
the design, development, integration, and testing of the subsonic aerial target (SSAT). The contracted work includes
a three-year engineering and manufacturing development phase, two firm-fixed-price options for production, and
options to provide logistics support. The Navy intends to field the SSAT initially in 2015 and to achieve full
fielding in 2017. Work will be performed in Roseville, CA (58 percent); Sacramento (20 percent); Wichita, KS
(19 percent); and Palmdale, CA (3 percent). Work is expected to be completed in Dec 2013. The Naval Air Systems
Command, Patuxent River, MD, is the contracting activity. Contract Number N00019-11-C-0024
On Jan 20, 2011, Composite Engineering Inc received a $34,674,848 contract modification to exercise the Lot 8
option to procure 40 additional BQM-167As. At this time, the entire amount has been obligated. AAC/EBYK, Eglin
Air Force Base, FL, is the contracting agency. Contract Number FA8678-10-C-0051 PO0013

PL

On Dec 4, 2009, Composite Engineering Inc was awarded a $29,342,315 contract to exercise the Lot 7 option to
procure 36 additional BQM-167As. At this time, the entire amount has been obligated. 691 ARSS/PK, Eglin Air
Force Base, is the contracting agency. Contract Number FA8678-10-C-0051
On Nov 25, 2009, Composite Engineering Inc was awarded a $37,551,848 contract to procure additional subscale
aerial targets. At this time, the entire amount has been obligated. 691 ARSS/PK, Eglin Air Force Base, is the
contracting agency. Contract Number FA8678-10-C0051

SA
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Timetable
Month
Feb

Mar
Dec

Year
1958
1959
1960
1972
1975
1995
1999
2000
2001
2003

2004(a)
2008

Jan
Mar-Apr

(a) Estimate

January 2013

2011
2012
2013-2014(a)
2015(a)

Major Development
Firebee research initiated
Initial low-rate production of Firebee
IOC of Firebee
Beech (Raytheon) awarded contract for MQM-107
MQM-107 production begins
Firebee procurement ceases in U.S., continues in Japan
U.S. places new contract for BQM-34
Target 21 program under way
AFSAT program launched
U.S. concludes Firebee production
U.S. concludes MQM-107 production
BQM-167A Skeeter (AFSAT) enters LRIP
CEi unveils X model as alternative to BQM-74 target drone
CEi involved in Multi-Stage Supersonic Target (MSST) program with ATK
U.S. Navy selects CEi as new SSAT contractor
Meteor missile engages BQM-167
CEi to begin LRIP of new SSAT
New SSAT to enter service

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Page 7

BQM-167 Skeeter

Worldwide Distribution/Inventories
The BQM-167 and BQM-177 are available for export. The company is seeking additional clients in Europe, Asia,
and the Middle East.
India is seeking potential sources for an aerial target drone. No details are available, but Indian officials did mention
an interest in a High Speed Expendable Aerial Target. The Indian Air Force would operate this target drone.
User Countries. The United States and Germany were the initial recipients of BQM-167A Skeeter aerial targets
produced by CEi. Singapore purchased a version of this aerial target. This purchase was once thought to have
occurred in 2006 but actually happened at a later date. Sweden placed an order in 2012. Other reports say Taiwan
and South Korea are customers for the BQM-167 target drone, and the Skeeter has taken part in tests of the Meteor
beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile.

Forecast Rationale
Composite Engineering Inc is taking an ever-increasing
share of the aerial target drone market. CEi was already
providing its BQM-167A to meet the Air Force
Subscale Aerial Target (AFSAT) requirement when it
won a U.S. Navy contract for a new subsonic aerial
target (SSAT) requirement. This success has not gone
unnoticed and now Kratos has acquired CEi.

PL

new SSAT will be fully operational by 2017. Until this

aerial target is available, the Pentagon will continue to
rely on the Northrop Grumman BQM-74E.
Previous customers of the MQM-107, BQM-34, and
BQM-74 are likely to become customers for the
BQM-167 and BQM-177.
Fuji Heavy Industries
produced the BQM-34AJ in Japan for years, along with
the BQM-74 Chukar. Whether Japan will also build the
Skeeter under license is unknown. Currently, foreign
customers for CEi target drones include South Korea,
Taiwan, Singapore, Germany, and Sweden.

Winning Bigger Share of Market

SA
M

Production of the BQM-167A Skeeter for the U.S. Air

Force is proceeding. The annual manufacturing rate
will probably average 30-40 targets over the next
10 years. From time to time, the yearly figure could
spike to 50 or more drones. In addition to the U.S. Air
Force, the U.S. Army is interested in this target drone,
as are certain foreign militaries.

The specter of a declining budget does hang over the

Pentagon. In tight fiscal times, the training accounts are
the first raided for money to fund higher priorities. This
is true for many nations, including the United States.
How hard these spending reductions will hit aerial target
drones is undetermined. Some sources believe the U.S.
cannot reduce its procurement of Skeeter-like drones
any further.

The U.S. Navy plans to complete work on its version of

the BQM-177 in 2013, with production starting soon
thereafter. Initial fielding is to take place in 2015. The

Ten-Year Outlook

ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTION

High Confidence

Designation or Program

Thru 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Good Confidence
2017

2018

Speculative

2019

2020

2021

2022

Total

Composite Engineering Inc (CEi)

BQM-167A <> Skeeter
322

41

38

35

35

36

37

33

39

36

35

365

Subtotal

0
322

0
41

30
68

35
70

65
100

67
103

80
117

90
123

110
149

115
151

121
156

713
1,078

Total

322

41

68

70

100

103

117

123

149

151

156

1,078

BQM-177A <> Skeeter

2013

January 2013

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Analysis 1
The Market for
UAV Reconnaissance Systems
2012-2021
Table of Contents

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 2

Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Trends .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7

PL

Competitive Environment ..................................................................................................................................... 13

Market Statistics ..................................................................................................................................................... 16
Table 1 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2012 - 2021 ................................................ 28
Table 2 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2012 - 2021 ................................................. 42

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Figure 1 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems

Unit Production 2012 - 2021 (Bar Graph) ............................................................................... 56
Figure 2 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Value of Production 2012 - 2021 (Bar Graph)......................................................................... 56

Table 3 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems

Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2012 - 2021 .................................... 57

Table 4 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems

Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2012 - 2021 ..................................... 59
Figure 3 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Unit Production % Market Share 2012 - 2021 (Pie Chart) ...................................................... 61
Figure 4 - The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems
Value Statistics % Market Share 2012 - 2021 (Pie Chart) ....................................................... 61

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................... 62
*

2012

October 2012

Page 2

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Analysis 1

The Market for UAV Reconnaissance Systems

Executive Summary

Such a radical change can only occur in the wake of

some equally climactic event in a much larger world
environment. That event was the 9/11 terrorist attacks
and the subsequent Global War on Terror launched by
the United States and its allies. Prior to these events,
the size of the unmanned vehicle market had been
growing, but at an almost glacial pace.

The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, as well as military

operations in Afghanistan, has helped to raise the profile
of UAVs to heights undreamed of just a few years ago.
Program managers in the United States have said that
for the first time, they are actually getting more money
than requested. Around the world, planned funding for
UAVs has skyrocketed since 2001. Production is higher
than ever in the history of this market.
The Pentagon plans to spend billions on UAV research
and procurement over the next 10 years. Although
Europe cannot hope to match this figure, the continent
could spend nearly $6 billion on procurement and a
similar amount on research and development.

PL

For decades, many years before 2001, unmanned air

vehicles were steadily building their reputation within
the U.S. military. Operations in the Middle East (Iraq
1991) and the Balkans (Bosnia-Herzegovina 1995)
helped to enhance this reputation, but it was during the
post-9/11 fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq that UAVs
came into their own.

company-level commanders use these systems to

provide soldiers with better situational awareness.

The unmanned aircraft system (UAS) market has seen a

remarkable transformation over the last 11 years. More
change has occurred in this market in that time than in
all the previous decades.

Game of Drones

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Besides taking thousands of innocent lives, destroying

buildings in New York City, damaging the Pentagon,
and ushering in the U.S.-led war on terror, the 9/11
attacks resulted in massive increases in the operational
use of, and funding for, unmanned air vehicles.

For the immediate future, U.S. companies will be the

leading providers of UAVs to the world. U.S. firms will
control more than 40 percent of this market's total value
and produce far more air vehicles than any of their
competitors. The leading firms are Northrop Grumman
(maker of the Global Hawk) and General Atomics
(which provides the Predator).

The U.S. reacted quickly to the 9/11 terrorist attacks,

launching Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) on
October 7, 2001. This operation's aim was to topple the
Taliban regime in Afghanistan and break up the terrorist
training network located in that country.
Even before the first U.S. soldier set foot in the country
in 2001, UAVs were in operation over Afghanistan.
According to some reports, the U.S. had been using
UAVs to monitor Afghanistan for an indeterminate time
before this date.

Company
General Atomics
Northrop Grum.
IAI
Boeing
AAI
All Others

% Market Share
20.38
18.18
2.15
1.53
1.12
56.64

Main System
Predator
Global Hawk
Heron
ScanEagle
Shadow

U.S. companies can attribute their dominance to the

Pentagon's high demand for UAVs and to the
availability of financial resources to pursue multiple
programs. The U.S. military is procuring an array of
UAVs ranging from man-portable to high-altitude, longendurance (HALE) systems.

Long viewed as useful assets for collecting intelligence,

UAVs quickly became an indispensable element of U.S.
military operations. In some cases, UAVs became
combatants, firing air-to-surface missiles at targets of
opportunity. The Predator has even worked in
conjunction with AC-130 gunships, providing streaming
video directly to these aircraft while involved in
missions. In addition, the new AH-64 Apache Block III
attack helicopter is able to control a UAV while
airborne.

Yet this market contains a substantial number of

anticipated UAV contracts. Some $3.9 billion worth of
contracts (or 10.08 percent of the entire market value) is
up for grabs, and companies from around the world are
vying to get a piece of this action.

The fighting in Iraq also brought the first wide-scale use

of man-portable unmanned air vehicles. Platoon and

France has plans to create one of Europe's largest UAV

fleets. These plans include the procurement of interim

October 2012

Europe is just as determined as the United States to

expand its UAV fleet, although the continent's financial
resources are more limited. European companies
currently account for just under 4 percent of this
market's value, but their share will grow in the future.

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Page 3

Analysis 1

The United Kingdom is looking to expand its UAV

fleet. London is moving ahead with its Watchkeeper
UAV program and plans to cooperate with France on
the development of a new MALE system.
BAE Systems and Dassault Aviation plan to develop the
Telemos MALE UAV. The team wants to bring other
European companies and countries into this program in
the future.

Flying UAVs outside tightly controlled military airspace

is a hindrance to the growth of these segments. Both the
U.S. and Europe are working on ways to integrate
UAVs into their respective national airspace. For the
immediate future, these market segments will remain far
smaller than their military counterparts in both value
and production volume.
Conclusion. The market for unmanned air vehicles is
worth an estimated $39.2 billion over the next 10 years.
This figure includes production of all air vehicles,
ground control equipment, and payloads through 2021.
Research and development will account for a further
$28.7 billion in spending, and perhaps another $2 billion
to $3 billion will go toward UAV services contracts.
This means a total market value of $70.9 billion.

PL

Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, and Greece all

plan to place new UAV production orders over the next
10 years. Some of these UAVs will deploy from naval
surface combatants.

In addition to the military market, the market for

civilian and commercial unmanned air vehicles is
growing. The civilian UAV market segment refers to
systems operated by non-military government
organizations, such as border patrols, police, etc. The
commercial UAV market segment describes purchases
by non-government organizations (private companies,
etc.).

systems to meet immediate needs and others to fulfill

long-term requirements. The French military will
receive new man-portable, tactical, and long-endurance
systems, followed by a mini-UAV for use at the
battalion level, a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL)
UAV for naval surface combatants, and a MALE
system.

Percentage Market Share by Nationality

U.S. Firms
41.67
European Firms
3.88
3.68
Israeli Firms
All Others
40.69
10.08
Pending Contracts

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Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Elbit Systems Ltd

are also looking to benefit from growing worldwide
interest in UAVs. Israel was at the forefront in
deploying UAV systems and is much more dependent
on foreign orders to keep its production line profitable.
Israeli firms are aggressively marketing their UAVs
around the world. Both IAI and Elbit are forming
alliances with large foreign firms to assist their efforts
in winning a greater share of the UAV market.

The most significant providers of these systems will be

located in the United States: Northrop Grumman,
General Atomics, and AAI. The U.S. military has a
large requirement for UAVs, and it keeps growing each
year.

Interest in UAVs is growing outside the U.S. and

Europe. Japan is introducing new systems and plans to
acquire a Global Hawk-like HALE UAV. South Korea,
India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, and
Indonesia, to name a few, are also looking to expand
their UAV fleets.

The number of countries involved in UAV research and

acquisition programs will continue to grow throughout
the decade and beyond. More and more nations are
realizing that UAVs can save lives and make a military
force more efficient by performing certain dull, dirty,
and dangerous missions.

2012

Europe has lagged behind the United States in terms of

funding and production volumes for unmanned air
vehicles. Still, European governments are investing
more money in UAVs. Among the beneficiaries of this
increased funding will be BAE Systems, EADS, and
Dassault. The United Kingdom and France are the
continent's largest operators of UAVs, followed by
Germany and Italy.
Despite more funding, the share of this market held by
European firms will remain much smaller than that held
by their U.S. counterparts for some years to come.
However, Israel's share of the market, 3.68 percent, is
misleading since Israeli companies are involved in
numerous joint ventures that do not place them as prime
contractor. This additional revenue could mean Israel's
true share of this market is higher.
During this period, the UAV market will experience a
slow but steady rise in value annually. The number of
air vehicles built will decline over the next 10 years.

October 2012

Page 4

Unmanned Vehicles Forecast

Analysis 1
This market may be finally exiting its infancy. In the
near term, the U.S. market will experience some cooling
*

and eventually settle at a lower level of activity but

one that is still much higher than it was prior to 2001.
*

This Analysis was prepared by:

SA
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PL

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