Global Inves

EQUITY
9 April 2015
Extract from a report
Global Investment Banks

Global IBs: Positive quarter for trading but lack of capital is the key issue
Q1 should be a decent quarter JPM will kick off the global investment banks Q1
earnings season on 14 April. Q1 15 equity and FICC trading revenues in investment banking
Stock selection
are widely anticipated to be healthy (consensus = up mid-high single-digit percentage points
Preferred
yoy), while advisory revenues should be stable. However, weak underwriting revenues, a low
interest rate environment, weak mortgage revenues (US), catch-up litigation expenses (EU)
Bank of America
Barclays
JP Morgan
UBS
would be key offsets. Importantly, we continue to see lack of adequate capital as a key
structural concern, exacerbated by continuing regulatory burdens (e.g. trading book review).
Least preferred
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
See here for our detailed report. Robust trading revenues in Q1 15 are therefore likely to be a
passing phase in a general downtrend. We reiterate our preference for business models that
are more diversified, well capitalised and have manageable regulation/litigation risks.
We are buyers of BAC, BARC, JPM and UBS. BAC has sold-off 13% YTD (vs down 3% for
BKX), and is particularly compelling given our forecast 16e ROTNAV of 11% vs P/16e TNAV
of 0.9x. BARC and UBS are attractive self-help restructuring stories in our view;
management should be able to improve ROTNAVs to drive a re-rating of P/TNAVs. JPM is
well placed to benefit from an improvement in the global macroeconomic environment, and
looks attractively valued on forward ROTNAV in our view.
We are sellers of CS, DBK and GS. CS, DBK and GS have weak capital adequacy in various
guises. We see capital deficits of CHF6.5bn at CS and 5bn at DBK to reach minimum
leverage ratio requirements. At GS, the CCAR/stress test has severely reduced buyback
capacity and therefore future EPS accretion (see here) We are also sellers of WFC given
slowing earnings growth and expensive valuation (click here for detailed report).
We update our EPS for several stocks. Please see page 4-6 for details. There are only
very modest changes to our EPS forecasts. There are no changes to our target prices or
recommendations.
Key recommendations
Company
07/04/15
Pricing
Curr
Reco
Target
Price
P/TVNAV ROTNAV
12m
12m
fcast div
TSR
15e
Bank of America
15.46
USD
Buy
19.0
0.20
24%
0.95
Citigroup
51.52
USD
Hold
55.0
0.16
7%
0.83
Barclays
258
P/E
Comments
ratio
10.0% 10.9 Cleaner turnaround in profitability, RoTE to rise to to11% in FY15

9.1% 10.0 EM growth risks and lower US exposure
GBp
Buy
320.0
8.00
27%
0.85
10.4% 8.4 Non-core run-off will move group towards cores 12% RoTE
Credit Suisse
26.85
CHF
Sell
15.5
0.35
-41%
1.26
12.6% 10.5 Weak CET1 leverage ratio points to equity deficit. RMBS fines a concern
Deutsche Bank
33.15
EUR
Sell
23.0
0.75
-28%
0.83
8.3% 10.1 Weak leverage ratio points to equity raise. Litigation for MBS mis-selling
Goldman Sachs
192.39
USD
Sell
149.0
2.50
-21%
1.17
10.2% 11.6 Expensive. mRWA inflation concerns. Capital return policy under pressure
JP Morgan
60.85
USD
Buy
69.0
1.72
16%
1.27
12.6% 10.6 Capital optimisation and expense savings are key areas of focus.
Morgan Stanley
35.94
USD
Hold
37.0
0.55
5%
1.13
9.1% 13.0 Attractive WM strategy. Rally leaves little value in the stock though
UBS
18.75
CHF
Buy
23.0
0.50
25%
1.55
16.3% 10.0 Great WM business. Litigation & leverage concerns should alleviate
Wells Fargo
54.02
USD
Sell
51.0
1.55
-3%
1.93
15.7% 13.2 Slowing earnings growth/quality, rising credit costs, expensive valuation
Equity analyst
Murali Gopal
(91) 80 2803 7319
Equity analyst
Andrew Lim
(44) 20 7676 6014
Equity analyst
Anubhav Srivastava
(91) 888 416 8685
Specialist sales
James Lloyd
(44) 20 7762 5426
murali.gopal@sgcib.com
andrew.lim@sgcib.com
anubhav.srivastava@sgcib.com
james.d.lloyd@sgcib.com
Societe Generale (SG) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that SG may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE APPENDIX AT THE END OF THIS REPORT FOR THE ANALYST(S)
CERTIFICATION(S), IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US RESEARCH ANALYSTS.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of TONY TANAKA (JI-ASIA GROUP)
9 April 2015
Contents
Key SG bank sub-sector calls ............................................................................................... 4
Q1 15 earnings calendar ....................................................................................................... 5
Earnings estimates fine tuned; target price and rating remain unchanged ............................. 5
SG estimates versus consensus (Q1 15) ............................................................................... 6
Key recommendations .......................................................................................................... 8
Global IBs set for revenue boost from trading................................................................... 11
US banks: net interest revenues should be weak ................................................................ 16
Asset management: Strong flows in the US; markets up sharply in Europe ......................... 18
Global IBs: Structural issues still at play .............................................................................. 19
Leverage ratios: Key differentiator among UBS, CSG and DBK ........................................... 19
US Banks: 2015 CCAR cloud clears but increased G-SIB surcharges ahead ...................... 20
Litigation monitor ................................................................................................................ 22
Stock performance in Q1 15 European IBs prevail ........................................................... 23
Company section ................................................................................................................ 25
Bank of America Buy........................................................................................................ 25
Barclays -- Buy ................................................................................................................... 27
Citigroup Hold .................................................................................................................. 29
Credit Suisse Sell ............................................................................................................. 31
Deutsche Bank Sell .......................................................................................................... 33
Goldman Sachs Sell ......................................................................................................... 35
JP Morgan Buy ................................................................................................................ 37
Morgan Stanley Hold ........................................................................................................ 39
UBS Buy .......................................................................................................................... 41
Wells Fargo Sell ................................................................................................................ 43
9 April 2015
Key SG bank sub-sector calls

Key SG bank sub-sector calls
2015 OUTLOOK
Benelux &
Germany
KEY CALLS
BUY
SELL
ING, CBK
ACA
BARC,
LLOY
BOI
- Funding costs and restructuring to drive EPS upgrades

- Sound credit quality and capital
- Funding costs and restructuring to drive EPS upgrades
France
PREFERRED
- Sound credit quality and capital

- An increasing focus on capital return
UK:
Domestic
- Further deposit repricing likely, accelerated by eventual rate rises

- Election (May) too tight to call, could bring volatility
US:
Universal
- Return to healthy earnings growth, and greater consistency

- Revenue growth outlook positive; pick-up in loan growth and higher ST
rates
JPM,
BAC
WFC
- Higher AUM driven by rising markets and net new money
Wealth Mgmt
UBS
Akbank, Yapi
Kredi
Bank Pekao
SA
ISP,
UBI
POP,
Caixabank
BKT
HSBC
BARC
CSGN, DBK,
GS
- Wealth management benefits from operating leverage and rising rates

- Poland: Low interest rates put pressure on NIM. Russia: Visibility very
low.
- Turkey: steady recovery. Other CEE: waiting for loan demand to
recover.
NEUTRAL
CEE
- ISP safer and cheaper way to play peripheral banks
Italy
- UBI best small play in Italy. Huge discount to Spanish domestic
Spain:
Domestic
- Valuations discount blue sky scenario in some names

- Revenue expectations starting to improve from a low base, US rate
rises would help
UK:
Asian
LEAST
PREFERRED
- Domestic conditions improving
- Continued restructuring to offset rising cost of being international
Investment
Banks
- Trading weakness on rising US rates and volatility spikes

- Regulation and litigation a struggle: leverage, MBS/CDO mis-selling
- Earnings healthy in Norway and corporate Sweden
Nordics
DNB
- Risk of volume slowdown and limited cost extraction opportunities
Nordea
- Diversified earnings stream
Spain: Large
- Potential earnings downgrade due to EM exposure
Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
9 April 2015
BBVA
Q1 15 earnings calendar
Tuesday 14 April
Wednesday 15 April
Thursday 16 April
JPM
BAC
Citi
GS
MS
Call: 8:30 am (EST)
Call: 8.30 am (EST)
Call: 11.00 am (EST)
Call: 9:30am EST
Call: 8:30am EST
(866) 541-2724 (US/Can)
877-200-4456 (US)
(866) 516-9582 (US/Can)
888-281-7154 (US)
877-895-9527 (US)
(866) 786-8836 (US/Can)
785.424.1732 (Intl)
(973) 409-9210 (Int)
706-679-5627 (Intl)
706-679-2291 (Intl)
(706) 634-7246 (Intl)
Conference ID: 79795
Conference ID: 90108772
Tuesday 21 April
Wednesday 29 April
CS
BARC
WFC
Monday 20 April
Passcode: 19351679
Tuesday 5 May
DBK
UBS
Call: 10 am EST
866-872-5161 (US/Can)
706-643-1962 (Intl))
Source: Company site, SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
Earnings estimates fine tuned; target price and

rating remain unchanged
Q1 15
FY15
FY16
Target price
Rating
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
New
Old
Old
New
JPM $
1.40
1.35
5.72
5.74
6.48
6.50
69.00
69.00
Buy
Buy
BAC $
0.30
0.31
1.42
1.44
1.67
1.68
19.00
19.00
Buy
Buy
29.85
29.85
36.31
36.31
320.00
320.00
Buy
Buy
5.18
5.23
5.52
5.55
55.00
55.00
Hold
Hold
Sell
BARC (GBP)
Citi $
1.38
1.35
Wells $
1.00
0.99
4.12
4.12
4.53
4.53
51.00
51.00
Sell
GS $
4.10
4.47
16.50
16.10
17.57
16.90
149.00
149.00
Sell
Sell
MS $
0.77
0.78
2.77
2.78
3.17
2.95
37.00
37.00
Hold
Hold
CSG (CHF)
0.67
0.66
2.51
2.44
2.49
2.43
15.50
15.50
Sell
Sell
DBK (EUR)
1.11
1.14
3.22
3.28
3.51
3.63
23.00
23.00
Sell
Sell
UBS (CHF)
0.41
0.40
1.86
1.82
2.07
2.00
23.00
23.00
Buy
Buy
9 April 2015
SG estimates versus consensus (Q1 15)

SG estimates versus consensus (Q1 15)
BAC
SG est.
Per share items
JPM
Cons. SG est.
Citi
Cons. SG est.
WFC
Cons. SG est.
GS
Cons. SG est.
MS
Cons. SG est.
UBS
Cons. SG est.
CS
Cons. SG est.
DB
Cons. SG est.
Cons.
CHF
CHF
CHF
CHF
EUR
EUR
EPS
0.30
0.30
1.40
1.39
1.38
1.39
1.00
0.98
4.10
4.09
0.77
0.77
0.41
0.35
0.67
0.70
1.11
0.98
Dividends per share
0.05
0.05
0.40
0.41
0.01
0.02
0.35
0.35
0.60
0.61
0.10
0.11
0.13
0.00
0.00
Book value per share
22.1
21.6
58.4
58.2
67.6
67.3
32.2
32.8
165.3
165.7
35.2
33.9
13.4
26.8
50.1
Tangible BVPS
15.1
14.7
45.3
45.2
58.3
58.1
27.2
27.2
156.0
155.8
30.4
29.1
11.6
21.2
39.3
3,757
P&L statement ($m)

Net interest income
925
611
1,749
1,990
Non-interest income
12,045 11,442 14,039 13,053
9,252
7,688 10,129 10,009
8,422
8,397
5,594
3,974
Revenue
21,297 21,362 25,013 24,379 19,835 19,903 21,129 21,238
9,347
Loan loss provision
9,902 10,974 11,145 11,870 11,914 11,000 11,215
782
Non-interest expense
701
1,036
931
7,965
2,220
1,929
622
9,083
9,008
9,304
585
7,343
7,734
83
15,295 15,266 14,876 14,963 11,435 11,568 12,136 12,523
6,394
6,655
5,963
4,866
6,535
28
6,253
8,623
8,797
396
4,534
6,660
Pre-tax profit
5,220
5,383
9,101
8,176
6,180
6,396
8,371
8,043
2,953
2,905
2,353
2,409
1,090
882
1,402
1,379
1,567
1,386
Net income
3,416
3,487
5,244
5,371
4,316
4,268
5,609
5,163
1,884
1,857
1,523
1,551
1,560
661
1,090
1,229
1,571
1,338
NIM %
2.08
2.24
2.08
2.13
2.83
2.94
2.96
3.02
0.46
NA
0.00
NA
1.12
1.51
3.00
ROTE %
8.89
8.06
12.69
12.27
9.92
9.56
15.55
14.37
10.82
10.51
10.40
10.56
14.88
12.61
11.68
ROA %
0.64
0.69
0.90
0.87
0.93
0.94
1.32
1.26
0.88
0.87
0.73
0.78
0.28
Efficiency ratio %
71.1
70.6
59.5
60.8
57.7
57.6
57.4
58.9
68.4
NA
73.9
NA
85.2
Ratios
0.44
76.0
0.25
77.2
Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity, SNL Factset and Bloomberg estimates for consensus
SG estimates versus consensus (2015)

BAC
JPM
Citi
WFC
GS
MS
UBS
CS
DB
BARC
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
Cons.
SGe
CHF
CHF
CHF
CHF
EUR
EUR
EPS
1.42
1.40
5.72
5.77
5.18
5.34
4.12
4.16
16.50
17.28
2.77
2.89
1.86
1.22
2.51
2.20
3.22
3.18
29.85
25.00
DPS
0.20
0.24
1.72
1.71
0.16
0.24
1.55
1.47
2.50
2.46
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.77
0.35
0.89
0.75
1.93
10.00
8.60
BVPS
23.3
22.6
61.1
61.3
71.3
72.2
33.0
34.4
176.0
174.9
36.3
36.5
13.9
13.4
26.4
50.1
346.2
343.4
TBVPS
16.3
15.6
47.8
48.1
62.0
62.7
28.0
28.8
167.1
164.2
31.7
31.7
12.0
20.9
39.3
300.0
Per share items
Cons.
P&L statement
NII
39,550 40,853
46,094 44,223 49,416 48,675 45,034 46,269
3,850
2,559
6,758
7,692
14,865
12,736
Non-interest inc.
45,717 45,377
55,161 53,808 28,922 29,291 41,631 41,316 29,888
32,853
22,018
15,363
17,282
13,627
Revenue
85,267 86,661 101,255 98,739 78,338 78,044 86,665 87,597 33,738 34,384 35,412 36,342 28,776 28,726
Impairment
3,333
3,397
4,409
4,178
9,041
8,190
2,752
2,686
26,362 25,850
272
106
1,525
2,088
24,954
20,892
27,980
17,637
Non-interest exp.
56,782 58,305
59,683 59,463 46,080 45,543 49,827 50,451 22,213
Pre-tax profit
25,152 24,597
37,164 34,024 23,217 24,722 34,086 34,227 11,526 12,250
8,565
9,235
3,822
4,573
2,057
4,727
2,642
4,642
6,696
6,512
Net income
15,754 15,950
21,341 21,928 16,166 16,268 22,846 21,927
7,868
5,420
5,758
7,078
4,587
4,321
4,434
4,447
4,693
4,555
4,047
7,268
26,847
23,055 24,645 32,147 32,717
Ratios
NIM %
2.19
2.24
2.13
2.11
2.92
2.90
3.00
3.01
0.48
NA
0.00
NA
1.10
1.55
2.97
2.97
ROTE %
9.96
8.98
12.61
12.00
9.11
8.51
15.73
14.43
10.22
10.53
9.13
9.12
16.3
12.58
8.27
10.45
ROA %
0.73
0.78
0.90
0.87
0.87
0.88
1.25
1.30
0.84
0.91
0.62
0.73
0.37
Efficiency ratio %
65.9
66.9
58.9
60.6
58.8
58.7
57.5
57.5
65.8
NA
75.8
NA
86.7
0.47
0.11
90.6
0.00
0.11
87.0
Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity, SNL Factset and Bloomberg estimates for consensus.
9 April 2015
0.39
82.0
66.9
0.33
SG estimates versus consensus (2016)

JPM
Citi
WFC
SGe
Cons.
BAC
SGe
Cons.
SGe Cons.
SGe Cons.
EPS
1.67
1.64
6.48
6.45
5.52
5.86
DPS
0.26
0.33
1.85
1.85
0.30
BVPS
25.0
24.1
65.3
65.5
76.7
TBVPS
17.9
17.0
51.9
52.1
67.1
NII
43,099 43,360
Non-interest inc.
48,389 47,874
Revenue
91,488 91,390 108,942 104,411 82,445 81,170 92,484 93,346 34,480 35,969 37,196 39,177 31,028 30,169
Per share items
GS
MS
UBS
CS
SGe
Cons.
SGe Cons.
SGe Cons.
SGe Cons.
SGe
Cons.
DB
SGe
BARC
CHF
CHF
CHF
CHF
EUR
EUR
4.53
4.54
17.57
18.45
3.17
3.27
2.07
1.56
2.49
2.67
3.51
3.83
36.31
29.60
0.72
1.70
1.57
2.70
2.73
0.70
0.70
1.80
1.15
0.50
1.31
0.80
1.11
13.00
11.30
77.8
34.3
36.8
188.7
189.5
38.1
39.2
13.9
13.9
28.6
52.3
364.8
353.9
68.6
29.2
31.2
180.5
178.5
33.6
34.4
12.0
23.0
41.5
322.0
50,249
47,186 52,186 51,298 48,381 50,034
4,548
2,757
6,611
7,960
14,843
13,699
58,693
56,514 30,259 29,638 44,103 43,244 29,932
34,440
24,417
15,897
17,400
13,751
Cons.
P&L statement
Impairment
4,461
5,293 10,158
9,523
3,859
4,094
28
23,857 25,382 32,243 33,338
Non-interest exp.
58,006 58,043
62,222
60,484 46,645 45,789 52,079 52,157 22,668
Pre-tax profit
29,021 28,466
41,525
37,594 25,642 26,025 36,547 36,789 11,812 12,920
9,527 10,400
7,324
6,697
6,007
6,482
6,205
7,499
8,972
8,117
Net income
18,262 18,191
23,837
24,099 16,715 17,144 24,520 23,515
8,308
6,093
6,511
7,887
5,845
4,288
4,933
4,953
5,627
6,003
4,863
7,460
23,704
1,468
26,522
5,196
27,669
101
27,450
4,774
17,749
2,197
24,570
16,340
Ratios
NIM %
2.28
2.32
2.22
2.20
3.00
2.96
3.16
3.10
0.55
NA
0.00
NA
1.12
1.64
3.00
3.19
ROTE %
10.72
9.60
13.16
12.37
8.90
8.54
16.49
14.54
10.03
10.33
9.80
9.51
18.1
12.21
8.89
11.96
ROA %
0.81
0.88
0.97
0.94
0.87
0.91
1.28
1.32
0.84
0.94
0.65
0.78
0.74
Efficiency ratio %
62.7
62.9
57.1
57.8
56.6
56.9
56.3
55.7
65.7
NA
74.4
NA
76.4
0.68
0.53
74.4
0.00
0.25
76.2
Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity, SNL Factset and Bloomberg estimates for consensus.
9 April 2015
0.51
74.0
59.5
0.41
Key recommendations
Global Investment Banks and US Universal Banks Buy recommendations
SG View
Bank of America
Analyst: Murali Gopal
Ticker: BAC US
Buy
Target price: $19
SG View Q1 earnings expectations
A much cleaner turnaround in profitability is

expected, and we forecast RoTE to rise to
to11% in FY16.
In the near term: cost savings, asset
management, primary markets business and a
pick-up in loan growth should support
earnings growth.
Over the medium term: as short-term interest
rates rise, the banks market-leading deposit
franchise should support NII growth.
JP Morgan
Ticker: BAC US
Buy
Target price: $69
BUY
Barclays
Analyst: James Invine
Ticker: BARC LN
Buy
Target price: GBP 320
UBS
Analyst: Andrew Lim
Ticker: UBSG VX
Buy
Target price: CHF23.00
The bank is in our view best placed to benefit

from a robust macroeconomic recovery. Most
asset-sensitive among the largest banks
although larger non-core deposits, which
should run-off.
Could accelerate exit from its large non-core
loan book (c. 19% of total) as asset valuations
continue to improve.
Faced with a steep increase in GSIB buffer
(4.5% vs 2.5%), capital optimisation and
expense savings are key areas of focus.
However, GSIB buffer likely to restrict any
meaningful upside to current payout nearterm.
Strong self-help deleveraging story as NonCore shrinks (2014 alone saw leverage
exposure fall from ~480bn to 277bn)
Core businesses generate 12% RoTE thanks
to high return UK, Africa, cards; IB a drag but
FICC now only 12% of group revenues
I-Bank headwinds of litigation and
restructuring should recede, but a double-digit
RoTE looks difficult without further balance
sheet restructuring
Litigation risks remain high for FX fines and
perhaps also US CDO mis-selling (fourth
largest player in 2006/7); we forecast a further
4bn provisions 2015-17e.
Undervalued versus 2015e ROTNAV of 16%
and 2016e of 18%. Significant excess capital
as RWA and leverage exposure reduces, even
with new leverage ratio rules.
Unrecognised DTA of CHF23bn can be utilised
via the P&L, therefore supporting equity and
CET1 growth. Potential for DTA recognition to
increase due to extension of profit recognition
period.
We see payout ratio of 75% in 2015 and at
least 100% for 2016-18.
Litigation risk is high, but alleviating as FX
fines comes through lower than expected.
RMBS fines should be relatively small (we
estimate CHF2bn in 2015). UBS was a small
CDO player in 2006/7.
New leverage ratio rules in 2015 are an
uncertain overhang risk.
NII should be under pressure as the ten-year

yields were down 23bp qoq. However, the
combination of improving asset inflows, FICC
trading and cost savings should support
earnings growth.
Key positive would be an improvement in the
loan growth as the bank has been re-positioning
its balance sheet and also seems to be losing
market share.
Another positive would be any commentary on
the outlook for credit costs the current outlook
is for costs to rise substantially. FX-related
litigation expense is possible.
Lastly, operating RWAs are set to rise although
should be manageable as the bank just last
month received approval for its capital plan.
FICC trading should be solid and up high-single
digit rate despite the sale of the 'physical
commodities' business.
Loan growth should also be solid although noncore book continues to be significant.
Expect non-core spending to pick up as the
bank begins implementing its business
simplification and business/product exits plans
with an expected cost savings of $4.8bn over
time.
We expect Non-Core leverage exposure to print

250bn (Dec 2014:277bn), benefiting from the
Spanish sale in January (14bn).
In the retail/commercial businesses we expect
reasonable volume growth, while Africa's
reported numbers should benefit from the first
quarter of ZAR/GBP stability for several years.
We expect FICC revenues to be about flat:
positive backdrop but restructuring disruption
began towards the end of Q1 14; we may see
further hints of balance sheet reduction to be
announced H2 15
Strong equity markets should have benefited

AUM and wealth margin.
Expect DTA recognition to continue to boost
earnings.
Greater clarity on FX fines likely to result in
reduced COE.
Excess capital expected to build despite
tougher Swiss leverage ratio requirements.
9 April 2015
Global Investment Banks Sell recommendations

SG View
Credit Suisse
Analyst: Andrew Lim
Ticker: CSGN VX
Sell
Target price: CHF15.50
Deutsche Bank
Analyst: Andrew Lim
Ticker: DBK GY
SELL
Sell
Target price: EUR23.00
Goldman Sachs
Analyst: Andrew Lim
Ticker: GS US
Sell
Target price: $149
Wells Fargo
Ticker: WFC US
Sell
Target price: $51
Weak CET1 leverage ratio of 2.5%. Likely

increase in minimum requirements under new
Swiss legislation points to need for equity raise.
We estimate c.CHF6.5bn if CET1 leverage ratio
increases to 3.5% (currently 2.4%).
I-Bank is much more exposed to Emerging
Markets versus peers (c. 11% of I-Bank net profit
on our estimates). Credit and Securitised Product
revenues likely under pressure when US interest
rates increase.
Uncertainty from new Swiss leverage rules, but
these may be less onerous than expected.
We expect CSG benefitted lesser than peers from a

pickup in trading revenues given relatively smaller
presence in macro products. Also, flow credit and
securitised products appear to have weakened again
in Q1 15, areas where CSG has greater exposure.
New Swiss leverage rules have been pushed to yearend. However, the new CEO may bring forward a
dilutive equity raise to improve the weak CET1
leverage ratio, which will impact ROE.
RMBS litigation provisions are significantly underestimated by consensus.
We are more negative than consensus on

FX and rates volatility should be a positive for
earnings forecasts due to weaker revenue growth
revenues in the short term but weak leverage ratio
and cost management.
will drive further business contraction in the longer
A weak leverage ratio (SGe 3.6% at end-2015)
term.
points to another equity raise of c.EUR5bn to
Consensus has under-estimated provisions for US
reach 4.0%.
RMBS issues in our view, exacerbated by the
Fines for RMBS/CDO mis-selling might be
strengthening in the US/ exchange rate.
significantly more than expected. We factor in
Any strategic announcement regarding
EUR3bn for 2015. Likely fines for OFAC (we factor
divestment/restructuring has already been priced-in
in EUR1.5bn) is another overhang risk, although
in our view and will likely disappoint high
risk from FX fines looks to be low.
expectations.
Meaningful exposure to Emerging Markets in Ibank versus peers
GS is an expensive stock, trading at 1.2x TNAV
Trading revenues is relatively large proportion of total
for a 2015e ROTNAV of only 10.4%. We see
revenues, and along with the primary markets
headwinds for FICC trading revenues
business is likely to contribute to a good quarter.
(commodities revenues under regulatory pressure)
However, faced with regulatory constraints, the
and Investment & Lending revenues, (which
earnings contribution from investment and lending
should suffer pressure from implementation of the
business should steadily decline.
Volcker rule).
We also expect greater clarity on the buyback
We believe GS' current aggressive capital return
potential post-CCAR, which is likely to be
strategy needs to be reined in, which will reduce
significantly lower (than last year), and we believe
EPS accretion.
market expectations.
Significant market RWA inflation risk from the
Trading Book review.
With the near-term outlook challenging, we

Expect EPS growth to turn negative (yoy) for the first
expect profitability to decline in FY15.
time in several years. With loan growth (commercial)
Slowing earnings growth, deterioration in the
already being solid, a pick-up in consumer growth
quality of earnings, loan growth largely limited to
(jumbo mortgages) will be important in the absence
low-yielding assets, continuing NIM pressure, loss
of a pickup in NIM near-term.
absorbing capital issuance, and rising loan loss
NCOs were at historically low levels (35bp) in Q4
provision costs are some of the headwinds.
we expect it to have bottomed. Loan-loss provisions
Valuation multiples have continued to expand,
should rise should the consumer (cards) loan growth
and at current levels we see little potential for
improve.
further re-rating of the stock.
Expense ratio has remained stubborn, and any
decline would be positive.
Faced with revenue pressure, we expect investment
income and some reserve releases to support
earnings.
9 April 2015
Global Investment Banks Hold recommendations

SG View
Citi
Ticker: C US
Hold
Target price: $55
HOLD
Morgan Stanley
Analyst: Andrew Lim
Ticker: MS US
Hold
Target price: $37
2015 capital plan was approved but EM growth

Expect a noisy quarter as various consumer nonrisks and lower US exposure should keep RoTE
core consumer businesses are included under
subdued.
'Citi Holdings'.
Ongoing repositioning should result in substantial
Key positive would be a pick-up in consumer
expense savings but fall through to the bottom-line
spending translating in to higher card balances.
is expected to be only a small proportion.
Unlike, its peers, we expect FICC trading
Unlikely to reach Citicorps efficiency target (midrevenues to be weak, in part we believe related
50%) in FY15.
to the losses around Swiss franc volatility.
Expect sharp rise in GSIB surcharge (3.5% vs 2% Details on the ongoing divestment plans and cost
currently).
savings will be important.
Expect litigation expenses to fall substantially
and closer to a more normalised level.
Impressive re-orientation of the group towards
Asset (and wealth) management likely had a
wealth management with the purchase of the
good quarter with positive flows, and strong
Smith Barney JV. Has achieved increase in WM
European equity markets.
margins as free deposits have been deployed into Continued deployment of deposits should remain
higher yielding assets and as greater penetration of
a positive.
the WM client base is achieved (particularly with
Any additional target for FICC RWA reduction
respect to securities-backed lending).
would be a positive but unlikely, in our view.
Attractive capital build as CET1 and leverage ratios
increase. Potential further release if low return FIC
operations are restructured.
mRWA inflation risk from the trading book review
could limit capital return. MS still has significant
RWA tied up in the low return FIC business.
Hold recommendation reflects full valuation for
turnaround efforts.
9 April 2015
10
Global IBs set for revenue boost from trading

Over the past several quarters, FICC trading (and latterly equities trading) has been adversely
impacted by the lack of volatility. This seems to have changed with reasonable levels of
volatility across several asset classes. We expect trading revenues to have been robust, up
mid-to-high single-digit percentage points yoy and macro, within that (rates and currency) to
have been particularly strong.
However, flow credit and securitised products look to have been weaker yoy for the second
quarter in a row. ECM and DCM revenues also look like they will be softer yoy by high
single/low double-digit percentage points. We believe ECM has suffered from a change in
product mix, with weaker high-margin IPO business offsetting the strength seen in the lowermargin equity issuance business. In DCM, investment grade spreads have tightened even
further, more than offsetting decent volumes.
Overall, business models continue to be re-sized. US banks seemed to be gaining market
share for a while but that seems to be easing. While the US banks are well capitalised, capital
requirements are moving higher (driven by G-SIB and CCAR regulations). Picking up market
share is no longer a priority. Instead, capital optimisation and RoE are more important.
MOVE Index (treasury market volatility)
Currency Volatility Index

12
125
11
10
100
9
8
75
7
6
50
5
25
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 14
Sep 14
Mar 15
4
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 14
Sep 14
Mar 15
Source: Bloomberg and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
Commodity Volatility Index
Credit spreads (bp)

160
20
140
120
16
100
80
60
12
40
20
4
Mar 12
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 14
Sep 14
ITRX EUROPE (EUR)

ITRX ASIAXJ (USD)
Mar 15
ITRX EUR SNR (EUR)
9 April 2015
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Jan-14
Sep 12
Apr-14
11
US Bond markets (average daily trading volume), $bn
US: Stock market volume (daily average), millions of shares

6,000
900
800
5,000
700
Agency
600
4,000
Corporate
500
ABS
400
Non-Agency (MBS)
300
Agency MBS
200
Treasury
100
Municipal
DirectEdge
BATS**
3,000
NASDAQ
2,000
AMEX/ARCA*
NYSE
1,000
0
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
(Jan-Feb)
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15 (JanFeb)
Source: SIFMA and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
VIX Index (S&P 500 equity market volatility)
European market volatility (VDAX Index)

32
24
22
28
20
24
18
20
16
16
14
12
12
10
Mar 12
Sep 12
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 14
Sep 14
8
Mar 12
Mar 15
Sep 12
Mar 13
Sep 13
Mar 14
Sep 14
Mar 15
Cash equities Xetra

6.0
ADV traded (bn)
Cash equities Euronext

% change (RHS)
60%
9.0
ADV traded (bn)
Cash equities LSE

% change (RHS)
60%
6.0
8.0
ADV traded (bn)
% change (RHS)
60%
5.0
40%
4.0
7.0
40%
6.0
5.0
40%
4.0
5.0
3.0
20%
20%
4.0
2.0
3.0
0%
0%
1.0
1.0
-20%
20%
2.0
0%
2.0
1.0
0.0
3.0
0.0
-20%
0.0
Source: Xetra, Euronext, LSE and SG Cross Asset

Research/Equity,
9 April 2015
12
-20%
Xetra Derivatives
Euronext Derivatives
ADNoC (m)
% change (RHS)
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
ADNoC (m)
% change (RHS)
0.8
40%
40%
0.7
0.6
20%
20%
0.5
0.4
0%
0.3
0%
0.2
-20%
0.1
-40%
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
-20%
Feb-13
0.0
Source: Xetra, Euronext, LSE, and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
Who is best placed as volatility rises?

On the back of favourable volatility across several asset classes, FICC trading revenues
should see a pick-up. Within FICC, we expect macro products (FX and rates) to have
performed strongly, more than offsetting an expected slowdown in flow credit and structured
products. We expect JPM to report a strong quarter, unlike Citi. Also, DBKs large FX trading
platform is a positive. Meanwhile, CSG and BAC have large credit businesses, which are likely
to have been weak.
GS and DBK have the largest FICC trading revenues (as a proportion of total group revenues).
Also, year-on-year growth trends will be impacted by each banks growth in the same quarter
in the previous year. On that basis, the US IBs seem better placed (see charts on next page).
FICC trading revenues as a proportion of total group revenues
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
GS
DBK
CSG
Citi
JPM
MS
KN
BAR
BAC
CASA
9 April 2015
13
BNPP
UBS
FICC trading revenue in Q4 14 (yoy growth) was weak, particularly for the US IBs
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
GS
BAC
JPM
BAR
Citi
MS
UBS
DBK
SG
BNPP
Natixis
CASA
CSG
BNPP
UBS
CASA
Natixis
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
FICC trading revenue in Q4 14 (qoq growth) US IBs are well placed to experience a rebound
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
GS
MS
CSG
BAC
Citi
JPM
SG
DBK
BAR
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
9 April 2015
14
Primary markets...mixed quarter ahead

Equity underwriting should be weak as IPO volumes have slumped. We also expect debt
underwriting to have been somewhat weak. However, advisory revenues likely held up well.
Global M&A Announced transactions (Q1 15), $bn
M&A advisor ranking (Q1 15), $m

1,800
A dv is e r
700
1,600
JP M o rgan
174,063
56
600
1,400
Go ldman Sachs
162,657
85
1,200
M o rgan Stanley
135,712
65
Lazard Ltd
126,078
45
B ank o f A merica M errill Lynch
112,492
51
HSB C
100,588
19
Centerview P artners LLC
99,916
11
Deutsche B ank
76,161
36
800
Volume (LHS)
Deal Count (RHS)
500
1,000
400
800
300
600
200
400
100
200
0
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
T o t a l D e a l V a lue
R a nk
D e a l C o unt
Credit Suisse
72,704
30
So merley
70,586
10
17
Q1 15 global equity underwriting volume, $bn (follow-on

offerings likely were strong but IPOs down)
U.S.
350
Global equity underwriter ranking (Q1 15)

E quit ie s
Unde rwrit e r
Rest of the world
300
250
A m o unt
R a nk
Is s ue s
Go ldman Sachs
20,858
76
UB S
16,603
61
M o rgan Stanley
16,080
94
JP M o rgan
15,756
98
14,864
81
Deutsche B ank
11,303
55
Citi
10,465
69
Credit Suisse
10,203
58
200
150
100
50
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
B arclays
9,324
49
RB C Capital M arkets
4,340
10
44
Corporate and international bonds underwriting volume ($bn)
Bond underwriter ranking (Q1 15), $m
3,000
Global Corporate bonds
International Bonds
C o rpo ra t e bo nds Unde

A m orwrit
unt e r
Int e rna t io na l bo nds Unde A

rwrit
m oeunt
r
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
JP M o rgan
83,023
B arclays
84,000
66,216
JP M o rgan
83,996
Citi
65,504
Citi
74,957
Deutsche B ank
59,601
Deutsche B ank
72,563
M o rgan Stanley
57,458
HSB C
B arclays
57,185
Go ldman Sachs
54,685
Go ldman Sachs
51,271
53,679
HSB C
49,157
M o rgan Stanley
49,826
Credit Suisse
45,326
Credit Suisse
45,741
Wells Fargo
32,908
B NP P aribas
43,988
9 April 2015
15
71,118
US banks: net interest revenues should be weak

US loan growth: Home mortgages (overall) show some revival
Europe loan growth: ECB survey shows recovery
14%
60
12%
40
10%
20
8%
0
%
6%
-20
4%
-40
2%
-60
0%
Total loans
C&I
Home mortgages
Demand
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Credit cards
-4%
Jan-08
CRE
-80
Jan-07
Q1 15 (JanFeb)
Jan-06
Q4 14
Jan-05
Q3 14
Jan-04
-2%
Q2 14
Jan-03
Q1 14
Supply
Source: Federal Reserve, ECB, and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
US Banks: Loan growth (reported)

Q2 14
US Banks: Non-core loans proportion of total
Q3 14
Q4 14
21.7%
5.3%
4.0%
18.3%
4.0%
3.7%
3.0%
13.9%
2.6%
2.0%
JPM
11.3%
BAC
Citi
-0.6%
7.0%
5.4%
4.0%
Wells
9.8%
-1.0%
-3.1%
JPM
BAC
Citi
WFC
-4.6%-5.0%
Q4 13
Q4 14
Although loan growth appears decent (see above), the low interest rate environment is likely to
have kept NII subdued. Also, Q1 is seasonally weak given two less days for interest accrual
during the quarter. In the case of BAC, we further expect greater headwind from the
amortisation of bond premium. The ten-year treasury yield ended 23bp lower compared with
the end of Q4, although the decline was slower than it was in Q4 14 when the yield was 35bp
lower.
The outlook for spread revenues should pick up as loan growth remains healthy, although only
gradually as growth is largely been confined to some of the lower yielding categories, i.e. C&I
and CRE. While auto loans have been very positive, consumer loan growth in general has
remained challenging, particularly credit cards. The trend in credit card balances would be a
key indicator to note in Q1.
Also, with treasury yields heading lower during the quarter, opportunity for re-investments
within the securities portfolio was limited.
9 April 2015
16
US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen further

%
3.2
Fed funds rate (SG economist forecast)...we see limited upside

to FY15 NIM
Fed f unds rate
Average rate
1Q15: 1.97%
4Q14: 2.28%
3Q14: 2.50%
2Q14: 2.62%
1Q14: 2.77%
3.0
2.8
%
6.0
Libor 3m (USD)
SG Eco team av g. est. (Fed rate)
5.0
2.6
4.0
2.4
3.0
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.8
2017e
2016e
2014
2015e
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2001
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Nov -14
Dec-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
May -14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Nov -13
Dec-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
2002
0.0
1.6
Mortgage banking revenues Purchase index picked up in January but has given up some of
the gains. Outlook is positive as we move into a seasonally strong quarter.
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
0
May-13
,0
-10
Sep-14
50
1,000
-5
May-14
100
2,000
Jan-14
150
3,000
10
Mar-14
4,000
15
Nov-13
200
Jul-13
5,000
Mortgage applications weekly change

(%)
20
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
Sep-13
250
Mar-13
Refinancing Index SA
Purchase Index SA (rhs)
6,000
Mortgage 30-year fixed rate % (national

average)
May-13
The refinancing and purchase indexes

remain weak
9 April 2015
17
Asset management: Strong flows in the US;

markets up sharply in Europe
Asset management Inflows have picked up in the US, and were strong in Europe in Q1 15.
Also, equity markets spiked in Europe in Q1 15, which should have helped CS and UBS in
particular.
Mutual fund flows picked up in the US: Outflows were reversed in domestic US equity funds
after three consecutive quarters of outflows. Also, inflows to non-US products were strong,
registering $22bn (as of 18 March). While inflows into fixed income funds were strong,
doubling to $32bn in Q2 14, they turned anaemic in Q2 and Q3 with $3-$4bn outflows.
However, in Q1 15, the inflows picked up to $33bn. As a result, total long-term inflows of
$71bn were the strongest since Q1 14 (as of 18 March). While flows were solid in the US, the
market performance was lacklustre.
US: Asset management (industry growth), long-term mutual
fund flows picked-up
Domestic/US equity
Non-US equity
Total Bond
Total Hy brid
Europe: Flows were strong to start the quarter

70
90
60
75
50
60
40
45
30
30
20
15
10
-15
-10
-30
Jan
'14
-45
-60
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
Feb Mar Apr May Jun

'14 '14 '14 '14 '14
Equity
1Q15
Jul
'14
Bond
Aug
'14
Sep
'14
Oct Nov Dec

'14 '14 '14
Balanced
Source: ICI, EFAMA and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
Asset and wealth management revenues as a proportion of total (FY14)

70%
61%
60%
53%
50%
40%
40%
30%
20%
20%
16%
15%
15%
11%
10%
0%
UBS
MS
CS
BAC
GS
Wells
DB
9 April 2015
18
JPM
Jan
'15
Global IBs: Structural issues still at play

Leverage ratios: Key differentiator among UBS, CSG and DBK
The CET1 leverage ratio is a significant (but not the only) differentiator between CSG and UBS.
With a much lower starting position at CSG, together with higher litigation risk, we see CSG
having an equity deficit against a likely minimum CET1 leverage ratio of 3.5% of c.CHF7bn.
This projection incorporates a significant 50% reduction in CSGs cash DPS to CHF0.35 for
2015e, equivalent to a yield of only 2%.
For UBS, on the other hand, we see its CET1 leverage ratio already in excess of a 3.5%
minimum requirement at end-2015, enabling it to pay out 75% of its earnings for 2015e. For
2016 and beyond, continued deleveraging and the absence of large litigation fines should
allow it to pay out 100% of its earnings and achieve yields in excess of 12% for 2016e
onwards.
DBKs leverage ratio (FL) is only 3.5% with additional headwinds related to: 1) a prudential
valuation hit to capital of 1.5-2.0bn; 2) likely leverage exposure inflation from further US dollar
appreciation; and 3) significant litigation charges we forecast an equity deficit of 5bn.
UBS: Leverage ratio glide path
6.0%
5.0%
Credit Suisse: Leverage ratio glide path

6.0%
Likely new minimum

CET1 leverage ratio
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
FY2014e
4.5%
Likely new minimum

CET1 leverage ratio
4.0%
5.0%
4.0%
FY2013
Deutsche: Leverage ratio glide path
FY2015e
FY2016e
FY2017e
FY2018e
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
FY2013
FY2014e
FY2015e
FY2016e
FY2017e
FY2018e
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014e
FY2015e
FY2016e
CET1 capital (FL)
T1 low trigger hy brids
CET1 capital (FL)
T1 low trigger hy brids
CET1 capital (FL)
Low trigger hy brids
T1 high trigger hy brids
Min. CET1 lev erage ratio
T1 high trigger hy brids
Min. B3 lev erage ratio
High trigger hy brids
Min. B3 lev erage ratio
UBS: Expected DPS and payout ratio
Credit Suisse: Expected DPS and payout ratio
0.60
2.00
50.0%
0.50
1.50
40.0%
0.40
30.0%
0.30
20.0%
0.20
10.0%
0.10
0.0%
0.00
1.00
0.50
DPS (R/H)
FY 2018e
FY 2017e
FY 2016e
FY 2015e
FY 2014e
FY 2013
0.00
Pay -out ratio (L/H)
DPS (R/H)
Pay -out ratio (L/H)
9 April 2015
19
FY 2018e
60.0%
FY 2017e
0.70
2.50
FY 2016e
0.80
70.0%
FY 2015e
80.0%
FY 2014e
DPF (CHF)
3.00
FY 2013
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
US Banks: 2015 CCAR cloud clears but increased G-SIB

surcharges ahead
CCAR was positive for Citi and MS. For GS, we believe management has scaled back its
buyback programme significantly. GSs buybacks were $5.5bn in FY14, which we now think
could be below $1bn for 2015.
CCAR results for individual banks
Dividend/share
Quarterly
Buybacks $mil
Comments
BAC
13 CCAR
14 CCAR
15 CCAR
0.01
0.05
0.05
5,000 Approved
Initially approved; buyback disallowed subsequently.
4,000 Conditional approval. Scaled back initial ask.
JPM
13 CCAR
14 CCAR
15 CCAR
0.38
0.40
0.44
6,000 Conditional approval

6,500 Approved
6,400 Approved. Scaled back initial ask.
Citi
13 CCAR
14 CCAR
15 CCAR
0.01
0.05
0.05
1,200 Approved
6,400 Denied
7,800 Approved
WFC
13 CCAR
14 CCAR
15 CCAR
0.3
0.35
0.375
Inc. vs FY12 of $3.9bn Approved

Inc. vs FY13 Approved
continue strong repurch. activity Approved
GS
13 CCAR
Potential increase (was $0.55/quarter)
14 CCAR
details not disclosed
15 CCAR
0.65 (0.60 in prior year)
MS
13 CCAR
14 CCAR
15 CCAR
Approved, incl. acq. of balance 35% in JV

0.10 (from $0.05)
0.15
Amt. not disclosed Conditional approval

Amt. not disclosed Approved. Scaled back initial ask.
Amt. not disclosed Approved. Scaled back initial ask (we believe substantially).
Approved
1,000 Approved
3,100 Approved. Scaled back initial ask.
Santander Holdings USA Inc.

14 CCAR
15 CCAR
Objection based on qualitative concerns

HSBC North America Holdings Inc.

14 CCAR
15 CCAR

Approved
Deutsche Bank Trust Corpn.

15 CCAR
9 April 2015
20
G-SIB surcharge inflation ahead (SGe of new and old surcharges below)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Category
Size
Interconnectedness
STWF
Complexity
Cross-jurisdictional activity
Total Score
US score multiplier
US G-SIB score
G-SIB buffer SGe
G-SIB buffer (current)
Surcharge bands
Score range
230 329
330 429
430 529
530 629
630 729
730 829
830 929
930 1029
1030 1129
WFC
43
38
25
53
10
JPM
78.21
86.91
69.00
173.13
66.82
Citi
63.42
84.72
69.30
101.20
77.11
BAC
59.06
53.89
71.23
97.10
30.48
GS
33.25
41.60
109.56
93.31
32.40
MS
28.10
55.20
146.26
98.22
40.96
168
2x
336
474
2x
948
396
2x
791
312
2x
624
310
2x
620
369
2x
737
2.00%
4.5%-5%
4.0%
3.00%
3.0%
3.5%
1.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Surcharge
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
Source: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, US Federal Reserve and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
9 April 2015
21
Litigation monitor
Litigation monitor: Banks exposure to litigation risks
RED - Penalties/settlements which could yet be paid in future.
Civil settlements are not included.
BANK
LIBOR
(US & UK)
EURIBOR
(and similar)
CASA
Yet to settle
Yet to settle
BNPP
Yet to settle
725m fine by
EU for
EURIBOR and
yen LIBOR
manipulation
DBK
Banks not in the table are deemed to have LOW litigation risk.
REGULATORY PENALTIES ALREADY INCURRED and COULD YET BE PAID IN FUTURE

PPI misInterest rate
US trade
US tax
FHFA
US MBS/CDO mis- Dark pools
Other
2
selling
hedging
sanctions
evasion
selling
products
Small player in FX market
650m likely
settlement?
(Bloomberg)
c.9th largest player in FX
$8.9bn with one
market
year ban on $
clearing
Top 2 player in FX market.
Likely
$1.9bn
Likely exposure. 3rd 4th largest Gold and silver
Risk could be low given
exposure.
settlement in largest player in US
US dark
trading (main
benign reaction from FCA
Dec 2013
MBS & CDO markets
pool
player). DoJ suit
and US regulators. No
in 2006/7
for tax evasion.
fines incurred yet
Possible fee
rebate for
German loans
FX trading
CS
Yet to settle,
Yet to settle,
mgmt claims no mgmt claims no
material
material
exposure
exposure
UBS
$1.5bn (o/w
$500m for DoJ,
$700m for
CFTC, $259m
for UK, $64m
for FINMA)
2.5bn fine
avoided due to
whistleblower
status

CHF1.8bn litigation
provision in 3Q14, mainly
for FX? $290m for CFTC,
$371m for UK, $139m for
FINMA (total $800m thus
far). DoJ outstanding. Not
under remit of DFS
BARC
$451m, o/w
690m fine
$160m for DoJ, avoided due to
$200m for
whistleblower
CFTC, $91m for
status
UK

0.5bn 3Q14 FX provision,
followed by 0.75bn in
4Q14. No settlement yet.
Litigation
risk profile
Medium
Medium
High
$536m
$2.6bn
$0.9bn
settlement
Mar 2014
$10bn lawsuit from Crossfinder

NY Attorney General. is largest
4th largest US MBS
US dark
player in 2006/7 (14th
pool
in CDOs)
High
$780m.
Potential
use of
bearer
bonds
could result
in further
fines.
$0.9bn
settlement
July 2013
Likely exposure. 8th 2nd largest

largest CDO and 12th US dark
largest MBS player in
pool
2007
French tax
evasion issue.
1.1bn bond
posted. Will
likely take many
years to resolve
High
$0.3bn in Aug
2010
$0.28bn
Gold trading
(main player)
High
$375m
Recent
revelations
of very poor
compliance
in Swiss
private
bank; tax
authorities
were
-
$550m
Likely exposure. 4th

Sued by
largest US CDO
NY
player in 2006/7. 17th attorneyin US MBS
general. LX
is third
largest
Possible exposure
-
Gold & silver

trading. Up to
$600m for
savings rates in
Brazil.
$1.9bn for money
laundering
Medium
Low
$350m
Low
High
Taken total 1.34bn provision

5.22bn
taken, of which
provision, of 211m remains
which
1059m
remains
c.5th largest player in FX Taken total 682m provisions
market. $378m 3Q14 FX
2,578m
taken, of which
provision. $275m for
provisions, of 200m remains
CFTC, $336m for UK (total which 624m
$611m thus far); HSBC
remains
carries $550m relating to
future settlements
HSBC
Yet to settle
Yet to settle
STAN
LLOY
$370m
RBS
$612m (o/w
$150m for DoJ,
$325m for
CFTC, $137m
for UK)
391m
BAC
Yet to settle
Yet to settle

market. Took $400m FX
charge in 3Q14. $250m
fine from OCC thus far.
DoJ and DFS outstanding
$6.3bn total
settlement
March 2014
$16.65bn
5th largest
US dark
pool
High
CITI
Yet to settle
70m

$600m 3Q14 FX provision.
$310m for CFTC, $350m
for OCC, $358m for UK
(Total: $1.018bn thus far).
DoJ and DFS outstanding
$0.3bn
settlement
May 2013
$7bn
Small US
dark pool
High
JPM
Yet to settle
$200m

market. c.$500m 3Q14 FX
provision. $310m for
CFTC, $350m for OCC,
$353m for UK (total
$1.013bn thus far). DoJ
and DFS outstanding
$4bn
settlement
Oct 2013
$9bn
10th
largest US
dark pool
Hiring of
'Princelings'
under
investigation.
High
GS
Yet to settle
Yet to settle
$1.2bn
Potential exposure
Medium
Yet to settle
$1.25bn
$2.6bn
6th largest
US dark
8th largest
US dark
Yet to settle

market
MS
Medium
Taken total 680m provisions

12,025m
taken, of which
provisions of 109m remains
which
c.8th largest player in FX Taken total 1.4bn provisions
market. 400m 3Q14 FX
3,750m
taken, of which
provision to pay for CFTC provisions, of 424m remains
($290m) and UK ($344m) which 799m
settlements; a further
remains
320m provided in Q4
$667m and
$320m top-up
for insufficient
implementation
of compliance
recommendatio
ns
Yet to settle; Speculation of c.3bn

2bn held as
fine, mainly for DoJ
provision
(Times) with no
against
provisions made.
regulatory
Already paid $150m
investigations to SEC in Nov 2013.
and litigation
Top 5 player in US
(ex FX/LIBOR)
MBS market
Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity. 1. Ranking data from Euromoney FX Surveys 2. Ranking data from https://ats.finra.org/TradingParticipants
9 April 2015
22
Stock performance in Q1 15 European IBs prevail

Performance of stock indices in Q1 15
Indices
Q1 14
Q2 14
Q3 14
Q4 14
Q1 15
S&P 500
1.3%
4.7%
0.6%
4.4%
0.4%
Nasdaq
0.5%
5.0%
1.9%
5.4%
3.5%
Euro Stoxx 50
1.7%
2.1%
-0.1%
-2.5%
17.5%
FTSE 100
-2.2%
2.2%
-1.8%
-0.9%
3.2%
Bovespa
-2.1%
5.5%
1.8%
-7.6%
2.3%
Nikkei
-9.0%
2.3%
6.7%
7.9%
10.1%
Hang Seng
-5.0%
4.7%
-1.1%
2.9%
5.5%
1.2%
-16.6%
41.0%
17.7%
-20.4%
2.73%
2.53%
2.52%
2.17%
1.94%
VIX
US Treasury 10-year
US equities/bank stocks impacted by interest rate and growth

outlook; also by the strong dollar
30%
EU IBs: Stellar performance on optimism driven by ECBs QE

measures and improving macroeconomic growth outlook
40%
2014
25%
1Q15
2014
1Q15
30%
20%
20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
JPM
GS
MS
BAC
Citi
WFC
KBW Bk
Index
UBS
S&P 500
CSG
DBK
SX7P Index
Euro Stoxx 600
FTSE 100
-10%
-10%
-20%
-15%
-20%
-30%
US banks valuationStrong relationship to profitability
2.5
MTB
R = 0.8818
Consensus FY15 Price / Tangible book
European banks valuationSomewhat less correlated
BBT
1.8
WFC
1.6
KEY
1.2
MS
RF
1.0
0.8
0.6
8.0%
COF
PNC
1.4
STI
FITB
GS
JPM
BAC
Citi
10.0%
12.0%
Consensus FY15 ROTE
14.0%
Consensus FY15 Price / Tangible book
2.0
Non-eurozone
CEE
R = 0.1358
R = 0.7989
US
R = 0.9019
2.0
WFC
1.5
JPM
BAC
MS
GS
1.0
Citi
0.5
0.0
2.0%
16.0%
Eurozone
R = 0.716
4.0%
6.0%
8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Consensus FY15 ROTE
14.0%
Source: Datastream and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
9 April 2015
23
16.0%
18.0%
Long-term valuation: Six-bank US index trades at wider than

historical discount to the S&P 500 Index
Long-term valuation: Four-bank Euro IBs index trades at a

wider than historical discount to the Stoxx 50
18
18
16
16
14
14
S&P500
Stoxx Euro
50
12
10
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Euro IB
index
Apr-12
Apr-15
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-12
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
6-banks
index
10
Oct-12
12
US and Euro indexes are SG calculated. Six banks index include JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS and WFC.
Four banks EU IBs index include UBS, CSG, DBK, BARC Source: Datastream and SG Cross Asset
Research/Equity
Short-term valuation: Six-bank US index vs Euro IBs index
18
12
16
11
Euro IB
index
US and Euro indexes are SG calculated. Six banks index include JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS and WFC.
Four banks EU index include UBS, CSG, DBK, BARC Source: Datastream and SG Cross Asset
Research/Equity
9 April 2015
24
Apr-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Apr-13
Apr-15
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Dec-13
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-12
Aug-12
Apr-12
Dec-11
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-10
Apr-10
Aug-10
Euro IB
index
Feb-14
6-banks
index
Oct-13
10
10
Dec-13
6-banks
index
12
Jun-13
14
Aug-13
Long-term valuation: Six-bank US index vs Euro IBs index
Company section
We provide valuation methodology, summary earnings forecasts and risks for each of the
banks discussed in this report.
Bank of America Buy

Valuation ($)
Forward
Multiple
Multiple
Valuation
Probability
estimate
3-year avg.
assigned
per share
assigned
16.23
0.8x
1.20x
19.5
25%
1.42
9.7x
11.0x
15.6
25%
DCF valuation
19.2
25%
Sum-of-parts
20.2
25%
Tang. BV/share
Forward EPS (NTM)
Weighted valuation/TP
Value/share
5
19
Valuation methodology
Our fair value for Bank of America of $19.0 is derived using a probability-weighted
methodology that includes a DCF, trading multiples (tangible book and earnings), and sum-ofthe-parts.
Risks to our target price

FICC trading revenues could remain low for longer. The bank could continue to lose loanmarket share. Investigations related to rogue trading in the LIBOR and currency markets could
result in larger fines than expected. Weakness in CCAR process and RWA inflation could be
significant.
9 April 2015
25
Summary financials
Bank of America financials ($m)
FY 2014
Q1 15e
Q2 15e
Q3 15e
Q4 15e
FY 2015e
FY 2016e
Income statement
Net interest income
39,952
9,252
9,721
10,117
10,460
39,550
43,099
Non-interest income
44,535
12,045
11,538
11,190
10,944
45,717
48,389
Revenue
85,356
21,518
21,491
21,548
21,654
86,211
92,517
2,275
782
811
850
890
3,333
4,461
75,117
15,295
13,993
13,779
13,715
56,782
58,006
Pre-tax income
7,964
5,441
6,687
6,919
7,049
26,096
30,049
Income tax expense
2,022
1,492
2,156
2,231
2,271
8,150
9,511
Net income
5,942
3,948
4,531
4,688
4,778
17,946
20,538
Net income to common
3,957
3,416
3,987
4,134
4,217
15,754
18,262
FICC trading
9,013
2,850
2,500
2,200
1,900
9,450
9,850
Equities trading
4,148
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
4,200
4,450
Investment banking fees
6,280
1,595
1,505
1,360
1,500
5,960
6,400
Provision for credit losses

Operating expense
Specific business lines
Ratios and payout

Net interest margin
2.2%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
88.0%
71.1%
65.1%
63.9%
63.3%
65.9%
62.7%
Dividends
1,263
523
521
518
515
2,077
2,647
Buybacks
1,623
250
800
800
800
2,650
3,600
76%
23%
33%
32%
31%
30%
34%
2.7%
8.9%
10.2%
10.4%
10.4%
10.0%
10.7%
0.37
0.30
0.36
0.37
0.38
1.42
1.67
10,585
11,217
11,161
11,106
11,050
11,134
10,913
Efficiency ratio
Total payout %
Earnings and profitability
RoTE
EPS diluted (ex. settlement cost in Q3)
Average diluted shares
DPS
0.12
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.20
0.26
14.78
15.14
15.50
15.87
16.26
16.26
17.87
2,104,534
2,148,569
2,166,615
2,183,809
2,204,443
2,204,443
2,308,394
881,391
888,633
895,810
902,639
910,867
910,867
941,346
1,118,936
1,128,483
1,137,962
1,146,992
1,157,830
1,157,830
1,197,531
81%
79%
79%
79%
79%
79%
79%
Gross NPL ratio
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
Gross NPA ratio
1.4%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
Coverage Ratio %
114%
108%
106%
104%
101%
101%
94%
Provision exp. % of net loans
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.5%
Tangible BPS
Balances
Total assets
Total gross loans
Total deposits
Loan to deposit
Asset quality and credit costs
Capital ratios
Core Tier 1 ratio
12.3%
12.3%
12.5%
12.6%
12.8%
12.8%
13.4%
Basel 3 Core Tier 1 ratio (fully loaded)
9.6%
9.6%
9.8%
10.0%
10.2%
10.2%
10.8%
Tangible common equity ratio
7.5%
7.5%
7.5%
7.6%
7.7%
7.7%
7.9%
Supplementary leverage ratio
5.9%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.1%
6.1%
6.2%
Source: Company reports and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity for estimates
9 April 2015
26
Barclays
Valuation
We value the stock at 320p
Our SOTP valuation remains 320p. We value each division

separately, estimating sustainable return on tangible equity, cost of equity and growth. We
value the corporate centre at zero given that it breaks even on average.
Main risks to TP
Risks include higher conduct charges than expected. Included within our
forecasts for 2015-17 is a further 3.75bn of charges (which we assume are not tax deductible),
although the actual outcome could be materially higher or lower than this number.
Barclays sum-of-the-parts valuation (GBP)
2016e RWAs
CET1 capital
Sust RoTE
CoE
Growth
P/TB
Value
Per share
124,876
14,325
18%
10%
1%
1.9
27,058
164
Barclaycard
50,544
6,360
18%
11%
2%
1.8
11,306
69
Africa Banking
42,521
5,177
12%
12%
3%
1.0
3,210
19
111,095
13,888
8%
12%
0%
0.7
9,258
56
5,975
657
40,257
5,782
0.5
1,800
Personal and Corporate Banking
Investment Bank
Head Office
Barclays Non-Core
Surplus capital
Group total
47,988
Discount to one-year forward
2,891
18
1,800
11
55,523
337
303
Present value of dividends
18
Fair value one-year forward
321
9 April 2015
27
Summary financials
Barclays Group financials (m)
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
Net interest income
11,600
12,080
12,736
13,699
14,641
Non-interest income
16,296
13,648
13,627
13,751
13,757
Total income
27,896
25,728
26,362
27,450
28,398
-18,180
-16,442
-15,117
-14,320
-14,025
Operating expenses
Bank levy
Impairments
Other net income
-504
-462
-570
-570
-570
-3,071
-2,168
-2,088
-2,197
-2,615
-24
11
59
59
59
Adjusted profit
5,385
5,502
7,946
10,222
11,046
Restructuring
-1,209
-1,165
-700
-200
-200
Stated profit
4,176
4,337
7,246
10,022
10,846
Underlying profit
5,385
5,502
7,946
10,222
11,046
Restructuring
-1,209
-1,165
-700
-200
-200
PPI
-1,350
-2,520
-650
160
-1,250
-1,250
-1,250
IRHP
Litigation
Other (inc own debt)
Statutory profit
Tax
692
725
700
200
200
2,868
2,702
6,696
8,972
9,796
-1,571
-1,411
-2,745
-3,678
-4,016
Minorities
-757
-769
-927
-1,050
-1,143
Net profit
540
522
3,023
4,243
4,637
14,668
16,625
16,880
16,913
16,946
23.6
23.0
29.8
36.3
39.0
Basic EPS
3.7
3.1
17.9
25.1
27.4
DPS
6.5
6.5
10.0
13.0
16.0
TBVPS
283
285
300
322
346
Core tier 1 solvency ratio
9.13%
10.31%
11.38%
12.76%
13.90%
Core tier 1 leverage ratio
2.93%
3.36%
3.94%
4.61%
5.32%
Tier 1 leverage ratio
3.10%
3.74%
4.35%
5.05%
5.79%
Loans
434,237
427,767
428,712
430,950
431,794
Deposits
431,998
427,704
433,254
438,456
443,820
1,343,628
1,357,906
1,243,309
1,160,547
1,093,878
Diluted average shares

Underlying EPS
Assets
RWAs
Leverage exposure
Core tier 1 capital
Additional tier 1 capital
Tangible equity
Cost income ratio
442,471
401,900
387,377
373,741
370,662
1,376,628
1,233,000
1,118,403
1,035,641
968,972
40,387
41,453
44,067
47,697
51,508
2,300
4,600
4,600
4,600
4,600
45,637
47,065
49,588
53,329
57,462
67%
66%
60%
54%
51%
Impairments as % loans
0.68%
0.50%
0.49%
0.51%
0.61%
Return on tangible equity
7.9%
8.3%
10.5%
12.0%
12.0%
Source: Company reports and SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
9 April 2015
28
Citigroup Hold
Probability-weighted valuation methodology used to arrive at our target price ($)
Forward
Multiple
Multiple
Valuation
Probability
estimate
3-year avg.
assigned
per share
assigned
61.95
0.71x
0.90x
55.8
25%
14
5.18
8.4x
9.5x
49.2
25%
12
DCF valuation
54.3
25%
14
Sum-of-the-parts
61.5
25%
15
Tang. BV/share
Forward EPS (NTM)
Value/share
55
SG Cross Asset Research/Equity
Our fair value for Citigroup of $55 is derived using a probability-weighted methodology that
includes a DCF, trading multiples (tangible book and earnings), and sum-of-the-parts.

Downside risks: A sharp rise in EM currency volatility, accompanied by a slowdown in
emerging market economic growth. Also, litigation risks (LIBOR, FX markets, etc) remain
elevated. A slowdown in the US economic recovery would limit DTA utilisation and capital
release. Upside risks: A rapid pick-up in consumer spending and its impact on the card
business; rapid EM economic recovery.
9 April 2015
29
Summary financials
Citigroup financials ($m)
FY 2014
Q1 15e
Q2 15e
Q3 15e
Q4 15e
FY 2015e
FY 2016e
Net interest income
47,993
11,870
12,170
12,583
12,793
49,416
52,186
Non-interest income
28,889
7,965
7,284
7,164
6,509
28,922
30,259
Revenue
76,882
19,835
19,453
19,747
19,302
78,338
82,445
7,473
2,220
2,215
2,271
2,334
9,041
10,158
Operating expense
55,051
11,435
11,404
11,704
11,536
46,080
46,645
Pre-tax income
14,358
6,180
5,834
5,772
5,432
23,217
25,642
Income tax expense
6,864
1,819
1,723
1,711
1,618
6,871
8,746
Net income
7,337
4,316
4,066
4,015
3,769
16,166
16,715
7,470
4,316
4,066
4,015
3,769
16,166
16,715
Income statement

FICC trading
11,815
3,600
2,936
3,041
2,584
12,161
12,769
Equities trading
2,776
812
758
687
509
2,766
3,014
Investment Banking fees
4,703
1,035
1,080
985
985
4,085
4,380
Ratios and payout

Net interest margin
Efficiency ratio
2.9%
2.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
3.0%
71.6%
57.7%
58.6%
59.3%
59.8%
58.8%
56.6%
Dividends
121
30
150
149
148
477
868
Buybacks
1,200
300
1,560
1,560
1,560
4,980
6,720
18%
8%
42%
43%
45%
34%
45%
4.4%
9.9%
9.2%
8.9%
8.3%
9.1%
8.9%
2.29
1.38
1.29
1.30
1.21
5.18
5.52
3,037
3,027
3,005
2,983
2,962
2,995
2,909
Total payout %
RoTE
EPS diluted
DPS
Tangible BPS
0.04
0.01
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.16
0.30
56.85
58.29
59.54
60.78
61.95
61.95
67.14
Balances
Total assets
1,842,530
1,855,129
1,870,953
1,876,352
1,871,062
1,871,062
1,923,307
Total gross loans
644,635
640,019
654,834
666,105
664,227
664,227
702,007
Total deposits
899,332
888,916
897,032
912,473
909,900
909,900
955,112
72%
72%
73%
73%
73%
73%
74%
Gross NPL ratio
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.8%
Gross NPA ratio
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
Coverage Ratio %
208%
204%
206%
209%
213%
195%
238%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
Core Tier 1 ratio
14.0%
14.4%
14.5%
14.8%
15.1%
15.1%
15.8%
10.5%
10.8%
10.9%
11.1%
11.4%
11.4%
12.0%
9.4%
9.7%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
9.9%
10.1%
6.0%
6.2%
6.3%
6.4%
6.5%
6.5%
6.8%
Loan to deposit
Capital ratios
9 April 2015
30
Credit Suisse Sell

Valuation (CHF)
CREDIT SUISSE Sum-of-the-parts fair value
Wealth Management Clients
Net
income
FY2016e
Basel 3
RWA
FY2016e
COE (%) Allocated

TNAV
end-2016
RoTNAV Assumed Fair Value Fair Value % of total

(%) LT growth FY2016e (disc'd at
FV
FY2016e rate g (%)
12.5%)
FY2015e
Fair
P/TNAV
FY2016e
Fair P/E Fair Value

FY2016e per share
FY2015e
1,325
52,996
11.0%
5,830
22.7%
2.0%
13,430
11,948
47%
2.30
10.1
7.4
Corporate & Institutional Clients
686
28,572
11.0%
3,143
21.8%
2.0%
6,920
6,157
24%
2.20
10.1
3.8
Asset Management
394
10,599
11.0%
1,166
33.8%
2.0%
4,124
3,669
15%
3.54
10.5
2.3
2,405
92,166
11.0%
10,138
23.7%
2.0%
24,474
21,774
86%
2.41
10.2
13.5
2,222 127,951
Private Banking & Wealth Management Strategic

Investment Banking - Strategic
Corporate Center - Strategic
TOTAL - Strategic businesses
Private Banking & Wealth Management Non-Strategic
Investment Banking - Non-Strategic
Corporate Center - Non-Strategic
TOTAL - Non-Strategic businesses
Total of subsidiary operations
14.0%
17,913
12.4%
0.0%
15,871
14,120
56%
0.89
7.1
8.8
16,172
13.0%
2,102
-14.0%
0.0%
-2,264
-2,014
-8%
-1.08
7.7
-1.3
4,333 236,289
12.8%
30,154
-294
14.4%
1.1%
38,082
33,880
134%
1.26
8.8
21.0
-4
3,884
-13
-12
0%
3.0
0.0
-188
2,716
-563
-501
-2%
3.0
-0.3
-35
-105
-93
0%
3.0
-0.1
-227
6,599
-681
-606
-2%
3.0
-0.4
37,401
33,275
132%
1.24
9.1
20.7
1.00
4,106 242,888
Excess capital at end-2015e

TOTAL GROUP
12.4%
30,154
13.6%
-8,975
4,106 242,888
1.2%
-8,975
-7,985
-32%
28,426
25,290
100%
-5.0
15.7
We use a sum-of-the-parts fair value (SPFV) approach to determine Credit Suisses target
price of CHF15.5. For each division, we apply a (ROE-g) / (COE-g) valuation methodology.
Capital is allocated on the basis of a realistic COE applied to B3 RWA for the division. Longterm growth rates are consistent with our expectations of how various revenue lines should
perform in a rising interest-rate environment. Please note that dividends are excluded from our
SPFV calculation (and therefore the 12-month target price). The dividends that we expect over
the next 12 months are included in the calculation of the 12-month total shareholder return.

New Swiss leverage ratio requirements may be less onerous than we expect.
Litigation for RMBS mis-selling may be much lower than we have forecast.
9 April 2015
31
Summary financials
GROUP FINANCIAL DATA (CHFm)
Net revenues (reported)

Operating costs (reported)
Pre-tax profit (reported)
Q1 15e
FY2013
FY2014e
FY2015e
FY2016e
5,967
25,217
25,815
23,072
23,876
-4,529
-21,546
-22,120
-20,871
-17,728
1,411
3,504
3,509
2,095
6,047
-411
-1,276
-1,452
-1,186
-1,626
970
2,326
2,105
881
4,288
EPS stated (diluted)
0.59
1.31
1.27
0.40
2.49
EPS adjusted
0.67
2.89
2.58
2.51
2.49
DPS
0.00
0.70
0.70
0.35
0.50
TNAVPS
21.20
21.34
22.07
20.87
23.03
BVPS
26.76
26.50
27.63
26.44
28.62
Taxes
Net profit (reported)
Per share data (CHF)
Important financial ratios

ROE
8.9%
6.0%
4.9%
2.0%
9.7%
11.2%
7.6%
6.1%
2.6%
12.2%
Cost/income (reported)
-76%
-84%
-84%
-91%
-74%
Tax rate
-29%
-31%
-37%
-58%
-27%
0%
48%
53%
64%
19%
10.2%
10.0%
10.2%
11.0%
12.5%
3.9%
3.7%
3.9%
4.7%
5.2%
ROTNAV (reported)
Payout ratio
B3 CET1 ratio (fully-loaded)
B3 leverage ratio (fully-loaded)
Wealth management (CHFm)
1,933
8,444
8,286
7,797
8,184
-1,469
-6,316
-5,966
-5,926
-6,179
451
2,050
2,260
1,820
1,952
Corporate & Institutional Clients (CHFm)

494
1,996
1,973
2,006
2,088
-244
-1,027
-1,004
-1,011
-1,042
242
965
917
960
1,010
Asset management (CHFm)

425
1,994
1,849
1,789
2,021
-300
-1,382
-1,300
-1,284
-1,440
125
612
549
505
581
Debt underwriting
421
1,902
1,777
1,599
1,567
Equity underwriting
179
765
870
752
752
Total underwriting
601
2,667
2,647
2,352
2,320
Advisory and other fees
171
658
749
712
747
Total underwriting and advisory
772
3,325
3,396
3,063
3,067
Fixed income trading
1,396
5,232
5,457
4,802
4,802
Equity trading
1,085
4,847
4,625
4,163
4,246
Total trading
2,481
10,079
10,082
8,965
9,048
-95
-308
-391
-380
-380
3,158
13,096
13,087
11,648
11,735
-2,183
-9,195
-9,305
-8,399
-8,462
975
3,894
3,744
3,249
3,272
Underlying Cost / income ratio
69.1%
70.2%
70.5%
72.1%
72.1%
Pre-tax margin (% of revenues)
30.9%
29.7%
28.6%
27.9%
27.9%

Investment banking (CHFm)
Other operating income (expenses)

Corporate center (CHFm)

Net revenues, (reported)
-37
-790
663
-136
-112
-193
-663
-1,347
-772
-368
-231
-1,455
-686
-912
-485
9 April 2015
32
Deutsche Bank Sell

Valuation ()
DEUTSCHE BANK - Sum-of-the-parts fair
value
Corporate Banking and Securities
Net
income
(adj)
FY2016e
Basel 3
RWAs
FY2016e
ROTNAV Assumed Fair Value Fair Value % of total

(%) long-term end-2016 (disc'd at
FV
FY2016e
growth
11.7%)
rate g (%)
FY2015e
Fair
Fair P/E Fair Value
P/TNAV end-2016 per share
multiple
end-2015
14.0%
26,615
10.8%
0.0%
20,474
18,346
53%
0.77
7.1
12.5
Global Transaction Banking
935
50,692
12.0%
6,083
15.4%
0.0%
7,792
6,982
20%
1.28
8.3
4.8
Asset and Wealth Management
992
16,931
11.0%
1,862
53.3%
0.0%
9,018
8,081
23%
4.84
9.1
5.5
1,284
93,230
10.0%
9,323
13.8%
0.0%
12,845
11,510
33%
1.38
10.0
7.8
-608
20,437
12.0%
2,452
-24.8%
0.0%
-5,070
-4,543
-13%
-2.07
8.3
(3.1)
-661
27,514
-1,983
-1,777
-5%
11.6%
46,336
10.4%
0.0%
43,075
38,598
112%
Private & Business Clients

Consolidation & Adjustments
Non-Core
2,866 190,107
COE Allocated
TNAV
end-2016
4,808 398,912
Capital surplus (deficit)
-5,000
Total Group
4,808 398,912
51,336
9.4%
0.93
3.0
(1.2)
9.0
26.3
-5,000
-4,480
-13%
(3.0)
38,075
34,118
100%
23.2
We use a sum-of-the-parts fair value (SPFV) approach to determine Deutsche Banks target
price of $23.0. For each division, we apply a (ROE-g) / (COE-g) valuation methodology. Capital
is allocated on the basis of a realistic COE applied to B3 RWA for the division. Long-term
growth rates are consistent with our expectations of how various revenue lines should perform
in a rising interest-rate environment. Please note that dividends are excluded from our SPFV
calculation (and therefore the 12-month target price). The dividends that we expect over the
next 12 months are included in the calculation of a 12-month total shareholder return.

Weakness in the credit market may not last as long as we expect, meaning that investors buy
into a stock which can display growth in FICC trading.
Concerns about RWA inflation may prove overblown with time.
9 April 2015
33
Summary financials
Deutsche Bank financials
(EURm)
Q1 15e
Operating revenues (reported)

Income before taxes (reported)
Net profit (reported)
FY2013
FY2014e
FY2015e
FY2016e
8,623
31,914
31,948
32,147
32,243
-6,660
-28,392
-27,700
-27,980
-24,570
1,567
1,458
3,118
2,642
6,205
1,061
667
1,665
1,776
4,199
1.11
3.80
3.44
3.22
3.51
0.00
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.80
39.30
40.54
38.72
39.26
41.51
50.15
53.68
49.57
50.10
52.35
6.2%
1.2%
2.7%
2.6%
5.9%
7.9%
1.6%
3.5%
3.3%
7.5%
-77.2%
-89.0%
-86.7%
-87.0%
-76.2%
-32.0%
-53.2%
-45.7%
-32.0%
-32.0%
0.0%
114.6%
62.1%
58.2%
26.3%
392,411
350,143
393,969
391,426
398,912
n/a
9.7%
11.7%
12.0%
12.5%
n/a
2.1%
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
Per share data (EUR)

EPS adjusted
DPS
TNAVPS
BVPS
ROE
ROTNAV
Cost/income (reported basis)
Tax rate
Payout ratio
B3 RWA (fully-loaded)
B3 CET1 ratio, fully-loaded
B3 Leverage ratio, fully-loaded
Corporate banking & securities (EURm)
Origination (equity)
Origination (debt)
Origination
Sales & Trading (equity)
Sales & Trading (debt and other products)
Sales & Trading
Advisory
Loan products
Other products
Total net revenues (reported)
Total noninterest expenses (reported)
Operating profit (reported)
157
732
761
746
768
347
1,557
1,526
1,480
1,480
504
2,289
2,287
2,226
2,248
757
2,737
2,927
2,868
2,926
2,311
6,805
6,841
6,499
6,304
3,068
9,542
9,768
9,367
9,230
107
480
580
580
597
258
1,237
1,196
1,199
1,217
-9
-21
-90
-90
-91
3,927
13,527
13,741
13,282
13,202
-2,481
-10,162
-10,348
-9,523
-9,353
1,419
3,175
3,291
3,650
3,755
1,414
3,159
3,265
3,630
3,735
Global transaction banking (EURm)

1,028
4,069
4,147
4,147
4,188
-614
-2,647
-2,791
-3,559
-2,564
331
1,107
1,200
341
1,382
Asset & Wealth management (EUR m)

1,155
4,734
4,709
4,930
5,022
-842
-3,929
-3,685
-3,563
-3,539
309
780
1,027
1,349
1,466
Private & Business clients (EURm)

2,490
9,549
9,641
9,797
10,022
-1,760
-7,275
-7,682
-7,444
-7,310
548
1,555
1,337
1,601
1,898
Non-core operating unit (EURm)

Total Non Interest Expenses (reported)
172
965
211
591
408
-958
-3,550
-2,804
-3,575
-1,489
-885
-3,402
-2,849
-3,381
-1,377
9 April 2015
34
Goldman Sachs Sell

Valuation ($)
Net
income
FY2016e
Basel 3
RWA
FY2016e
Investment Banking
1,770
81,000
10.0%
8,100
21.9%
3.0%
21,818
19,394
31%
2.69
12.3
46.1
Institutional Client Services
2,853 354,095
12.5%
44,262
6.4%
1.0%
20,962
18,633
30%
0.47
7.3
44.3
Investing & Lending
2,097 155,760
14.0%
21,806
9.6%
0.0%
14,981
13,317
21%
0.69
7.1
31.7
14,540
10.0%
1,454
67.6%
2.5%
12,625
11,222
18%
8.68
12.8
26.7
7,704 605,395
12.5%
75,622
10.2%
1.4%
70,387
62,566
100%
0.93
9.1
148.8
70,387
62,566
100%
0.93
Investment Management
983
COE (%) Allocated

TNAV
end-2016
RoTNAV Assumed Fair value Fair value % of total

FV
FY2016e rate g (%)
12.8%)
FY2015e
Fair
P/TNAV
FY2016e
Fair P/E Fair value

FY2016e per share
FY2015e
Excess capital at end FY2016e

TOTAL GROUP
7,704 605,395
75,622
149
We use a sum-of-the-parts fair value (SPFV) approach to determine Goldman Sachs target
price of $149. For each division, we apply a (ROE-g) / (COE-g) valuation methodology. Capital
next 12 months are included in the calculation of the 12-month total shareholder return.

Weakness in the credit market may not last as long as we expect, meaning that investors buy
into a stock which can display growth in FICC trading.
Management may prove more adept than we expect in reducing the bank's leverage exposure
while still achieving revenue growth and therefore organic capital generation.
9 April 2015
35
Summary financials
Goldman Sachs ($m)
FY2014
Q1 15e
Q2 15e
Q3 15e
Q4 15e
FY2015e
FY2016e
Income statement
Non-interest income
30,403
8,505
7,688
7,225
6,797
30,216
30,278
Revenue
34,528
9,347
8,538
8,120
7,733
33,738
34,480
Operating expense
22,171
6,394
6,083
5,073
4,662
22,213
22,668
Pre-tax income
12,357
2,953
2,455
3,046
3,071
11,526
11,812
Income tax expense
3,880
975
810
1,005
1,013
3,803
3,898
Net income
8,477
1,979
1,645
2,041
2,058
7,722
7,914
8,026
1,938
1,564
1,998
1,981
7,481
7,685
FICC trading
8,391
2,964
2,156
2,105
1,401
8,626
8,898
Equities trading
6,728
1,645
1,662
1,586
1,843
6,736
6,811
Investment banking fees
6,464
1,671
1,758
1,477
1,473
6,378
6,442
Ratios and payout

Efficiency ratio
64.2%
68.4%
71.2%
62.5%
60.3%
65.8%
65.7%
Dividends
1,051
269
266
286
283
1,104
1,150
Buybacks
1,220
5,441
1,220
600
600
600
1,000
29%
303%
99%
46%
46%
23%
28%
11.8%
10.8%
8.6%
10.9%
10.7%
10.2%
10.0%
16.97
4.22
3.44
4.43
4.43
16.50
17.57
473
459
455
451
447
453
437
DPS
2.30
0.60
0.60
0.65
0.65
2.50
2.70
153.79
156.01
159.89
163.00
167.12
167.12
180.48
856,240
862,087
866,398
870,729
875,083
875,083
892,717
83,008
66,362
66,694
67,027
67,362
67,362
68,720
Core Tier 1 ratio
16.5%
12.2%
16.7%
16.9%
16.9%
16.9%
17.3%
11.1%
11.2%
11.4%
11.5%
11.7%
11.7%
11.3%
7.9%
8.1%
8.2%
8.3%
8.3%
8.4%
8.6%
5.0%
5.2%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.5%
Total payout %
RoTE
EPS diluted
Tangible BPS
Balances
Total assets
Total deposits
Capital ratios
9 April 2015
36
JP Morgan Buy
Forward
Multiple
Multiple
Valuation
Probability
estimate
3-year avg.
assigned
per share
assigned
Tang. BV/share
47.8
1.1x
1.4x
67
25%
17
Forward EPS (NTM)
5.47
8.2x
11.0x
60
25%
15
DCF valuation
73
25%
18
Sum-of-parts
75
25%
19
Value/share
69
Our fair value for JPM is derived using a probability-weighted methodology that includes a
DCF, trading multiples (tangible book and earnings) and sum-of-the-parts.

If the macroeconomic recovery in the US stumbles, this would have a significant impact. Also,
should trading revenues continue to slow sharply, this would have an adverse impact on
earnings. Litigation/investigation risks related to currency trading, LIBOR, and hiring practices
could keep costs elevated.
9 April 2015
37
Summary financials
JPMorgan Chase & Co. financials ($m)
FY2014
Q1 15e
Q2 15e
Q3 15e
Q4 15e
FY2015e
FY2016e
Net interest income
44,619
10,974
11,276
11,727
12,117
46,094
50,249
Non-interest income
53,304
14,039
13,543
13,841
13,738
55,161
58,693
Revenue
97,670
25,013
24,819
25,569
25,855
101,255
108,942
Income statement
3,139
1,036
1,074
1,124
1,175
4,409
5,196
Operating expense
61,274
14,876
14,652
14,825
15,329
59,683
62,222
Pre-tax income
33,257
9,101
9,093
9,619
9,351
37,164
41,525
Income tax expense
11,748
3,339
3,350
3,558
3,469
13,716
15,335
Net income
21,509
5,762
5,742
6,061
5,882
23,448
26,190
20,141
5,244
5,227
5,517
5,353
21,341
23,837

FICC trading
13,848
4,094
3,373
3,505
2,913
13,885
14,574
Equities trading
4,861
1,368
1,198
1,252
1,149
4,967
5,216
6,570
1,519
1,625
1,567
1,721
6,432
6,809
Ratios and payout

Net interest margin
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.2%
62.7%
59.5%
59.0%
58.0%
59.3%
58.9%
57.1%
Dividends
5,924
1,481
1,623
1,617
1,612
6,333
6,712
Buybacks
5,186
1,700
1,280
1,280
1,280
5,540
5,520
55%
61%
56%
53%
54%
56%
51%
12.8%
12.7%
12.4%
12.9%
12.3%
12.6%
13.2%
5.30
1.40
1.40
1.48
1.44
5.72
6.48
3,798
3,752
3,739
3,726
3,713
3,732
3,678
Efficiency ratio
Total payout %
Earnings and Profitability
RoTE
EPS diluted
DPS
Tangible BPS
1.58
0.40
0.44
0.44
0.44
1.72
1.85
43.92
45.26
46.08
46.98
47.84
47.84
51.92
2,573,126
2,573,214
2,610,045
2,634,945
2,671,603
2,671,603
2,778,877
757,336
759,454
772,556
782,256
795,440
795,440
842,973
1,363,427
1,331,696
1,331,638
1,325,707
1,325,896
1,325,896
1,407,395
57%
58%
58%
58%
59%
59%
61%
Balances
Total assets
Total gross loans
Total deposits
Loan to deposit
Gross NPL ratio
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
Coverage Ratio %
212%
224%
224%
222%
222%
222%
193%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
Core Tier 1 ratio
10.1%
10.4%
10.4%
10.5%
10.5%
10.5%
10.7%
10.2%
10.5%
10.5%
10.5%
10.5%
10.5%
10.8%
6.6%
6.6%
6.7%
6.7%
6.7%
6.8%
7.0%
5.6%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.8%
Capital ratios
9 April 2015
38
Morgan Stanley Hold

Valuation ($)
Net
income
FY2016e
Basel 3
RWA
FY2016e
COE (%) Allocated

TNAV
end-2016
RoTNAV Assumed Fair value Fair value % of total

FV
FY2016e rate g (%)
11.8%)
FY2015e
Fair
P/TNAV
FY2016e
Fair P/E Fair value

FY2016e per share
FY2015e
Institutional Securities
3,217 343,084
13.0%
44,601
7.2%
1.0%
23,091
20,507
29%
0.52
7.2
11
Wealth Management
2,759
44,000
10.5%
4,620
59.7%
5.0%
45,966
40,822
58%
9.95
16.7
22
Investment Management
517
17,000
10.5%
1,785
29.0%
3.0%
6,179
5,488
8%
3.46
12.0
-49
-488
-433
-1%
74,748
66,383
94%
1.47
1.00
6,493 404,084
Excess capital at end-FY2016e
TOTAL GROUP
12.6%
51,006
12.7%
4,392
6,493 404,084
2.9%
4,392
3,900
6%
79,140
70,284
100%
10.0
11.5
35
2
37
We use a sum-of-the-parts fair value (SPFV) approach to determine Morgan Stanleys target
price of $37.0. For each division, we apply a (ROE-g) / (COE-g) valuation methodology. Capital

There is upside risk if management does more to reduce RWA and leverage exposure in the
IB, which generates only a mid-single-digit ROE. We may also have under-estimated the
extent of improvement in margins and revenues in the wealth management business.
There is downside risk if MS executes poorly in its stated strategy of deploying deposits in
high yield assets, with improving margins failing to materialise.
9 April 2015
39
Summary financials
Morgan Stanley financials ($m)
FY2014
Q1 15e
Q2 15e
Q3 15e
Q4 15e
FY2015e
FY2016e
Non-interest income
32,112
8,397
8,248
8,226
7,981
32,853
34,440
Revenue
34,226
9,008
8,881
8,876
8,647
35,412
37,196
Operating expense
27,881
6,655
6,806
6,662
6,724
26,847
27,669
6,345
2,353
2,075
2,214
1,923
8,565
9,527
33
706
622
664
577
2,570
2,858
Net income
6,337
1,647
1,452
1,550
1,346
5,996
6,669
5,562
1,523
1,288
1,426
1,182
5,420
6,093
FICC trading
3,956
1,737
1,062
967
703
4,468
4,602
Equities trading
6,965
1,671
1,843
1,838
1,738
7,089
7,218
5,203
1,170
1,477
1,334
1,327
5,308
5,569
Income statement
Pre-tax income
Income tax expense
Ratios and payout

Efficiency ratio
82.5%
73.9%
76.6%
75.1%
77.8%
75.8%
74.4%
Dividends
780
195
291
290
288
1,057
1,320
Buybacks
684
228
620
620
620
2,088
2,640
26%
28%
71%
64%
77%
58%
65%
9.2%
10.4%
8.7%
9.5%
7.8%
9.1%
9.8%
2.82
0.77
0.66
0.73
0.61
2.77
3.17
1,970
1,973
1,962
1,952
1,942
1,957
1,920
Total payout %
RoTE
EPS diluted
DPS
0.40
0.10
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.55
0.70
29.63
30.39
30.82
31.31
31.68
31.68
33.63
Total assets
824,692
837,063
849,619
862,363
875,298
875,298
938,197
Total deposits
163,713
166,169
168,661
171,191
173,759
173,759
186,245
Core Tier 1 ratio
14.3%
14.6%
14.9%
15.1%
15.2%
15.2%
15.7%
12.4%
12.8%
13.1%
13.3%
13.4%
13.4%
13.9%
7.1%
7.2%
7.2%
7.1%
7.1%
7.2%
7.1%
5.0%
5.1%
5.1%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.4%
Tangible BPS
Balances
Capital ratios
Numbers exclude CVA/DVA

9 April 2015
40
UBS Buy
Valuation (CHF)
UBS Sum-of-the-parts fair value
Adj. Net
income
FY2016e
Basel 3
RWA
FY2016e
PB: Wealth Management
2,969
27,505
10.5%
2,888
102.8%
3.5%
40,977
36,652
43%
14.19
13.8
9.9
PB: Wealth Management Americas
1,165
24,443
10.5%
2,566
45.4%
4.0%
16,349
14,623
17%
6.37
14.0
3.9
PB: Retail & Corporate
1,682
33,051
11.0%
3,636
46.3%
0.0%
15,294
13,680
16%
4.21
9.1
3.7
Private Banking
5,817
84,998
10.7%
9,090
64.0%
2.6%
72,620
64,956
77%
7.99
12.5
17.5
2.0
Global Asset Management
COE (%) Allocated

TNAV
end-2016
RoTNAV Assumed Fair Value Fair Value % of total

FV
FY2016e rate g (%)
11.8%)
FY2015e
Fair
P/TNAV
FY2016e
Fair P/E Fair Value

FY2016e per share
FY2015e
788
3,800
10.5%
399
197.4%
1.0%
8,248
7,378
9%
20.67
10.5
Investment Bank (Core)
1,904
63,700
12.5%
7,963
23.9%
3.0%
17,524
15,675
19%
2.20
9.2
4.2
Corporate Centre (Core)
-605
30,100
13.0%
3,913
-15.5%
-2.0%
-3,510
-3,140
-4%
-0.90
5.8
-0.8
Corporate Center (Non-Core & Legacy)
-173
3,978
18.0%
716
-24.2%
-10.0%
-364
-325
0%
-0.51
2.1
-0.1
7,730 186,576
11.8%
22,081
35.0%
3.2%
94,519
84,543
100%
4.3
12.2
22.7
1.00
Assumed excess capital

TOTAL GROUP
-14
7,730 186,576
22,095
35.0%
-14
-13
0%
94,504
84,530
100%
0.0
22.7
We use a sum-of-the-parts fair value (SPFV) approach to determine UBSs target price of
CHF23.0. For each division, we apply a (ROE-g) / (COE-g) valuation methodology. Capital is
allocated on the basis of a realistic COE applied to B3 RWA for the division. Long-term growth
rates are consistent with our expectations of how various revenue lines should perform in a
rising interest-rate environment. Please note that dividends are excluded from our SPFV

FINMA might be aggressive in increasing leverage ratio requirements more than we expect,
therefore reducing UBS's capital return potential.
The WM transactional margin in Asia might sink even lower as a result of emerging market
concerns, more than offsetting any positive developments elsewhere.
9 April 2015
41
Summary financials
UBS financials
(CHFm)
Q1 15e
Group Operating income
FY2013
FY2014e
FY2015e
FY2016e
7,343
27,733
28,481
28,776
31,028
-6,253
-24,462
-25,605
-24,954
-23,704
1,090
3,271
2,875
3,822
7,324
700
3,171
3,719
3,638
6,527
EPS diluted
0.18
0.82
0.97
0.96
1.72
EPS diluted (adjusted)
0.41
1.46
1.85
1.86
2.07
DPS (excludes special dividends)
0.13
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.80
TNAVPS
11.56
11.07
11.96
11.99
11.99
BVPS
13.43
12.74
13.71
13.86
13.86
5.7%
6.6%
7.2%
7.2%
13.0%
6.7%
7.6%
8.3%
8.4%
15.0%
-85.2%
-88.2%
-89.9%
-86.7%
-76.4%
-35.8%
3.3%
33.3%
-1.9%
-9.7%
65%
30%
50%
50%
100%
12.8%
14.1%
15.7%
16.1%
3.39%
4.17%
5.58%
5.75%
Group Operating costs (reported)

Group Operating profit (reported)
Group Net profit (reported)
Per share data (CHF)
ROE (annualised)
ROTNAV (annualised) reported
Cost/income ratio
Tax rate, effective
Payout ratio
B3 CET1 ratio, fully-loaded
B3 leverage ratio, fully-loaded
Wealth management
Total operating income (reported)
Total operating expenses (reported)
2,096
7,563
8,037
8,138
8,660
-1,354
-5,316
-5,648
-5,322
-5,461
742
2,247
2,390
2,816
3,199
Retail & Corporate

Profit before tax (reported)
881
3,756
3,787
3,627
4,026
-502
-2,299
-2,218
-2,058
-2,255
379
1,457
1,569
1,569
1,771
Wealth management Americas

1,789
6,538
6,979
7,287
7,858
-1,531
-5,680
-6,026
-6,341
-6,668
258
858
953
946
1,190
Investment bank
Advisory revenues
Capital market revenues
ECM
DCM
Financing Solutions
Risk Management
Corporate Client Solutions income
Equities Sales and Trading
FICC Sales and Trading
Investor Client Services income
Total income (reported)
158
588
705
730
739
484
2,030
2,092
1,833
1,888
196
1,142
1,004
933
980
288
888
1,088
899
908
131
598
504
525
545
-10
-239
-54
-42
-35
762
2,977
3,247
3,046
3,137
954
4,029
3,646
3,612
3,748
351
1,590
1,364
1,307
1,284
1,305
5,620
5,010
4,919
5,032
2,067
8,596
8,257
7,965
8,169
-1,628
-6,300
-8,500
-6,358
-6,269
439
2,299
-250
1,607
1,900
Global asset management

491
1,935
1,928
2,063
2,293
-329
-1,359
-1,362
-1,358
-1,488
162
576
566
704
805
-888
-4,171
-2,347
-3,808
-1,535
Corporate center
Profit before tax (reported)
9 April 2015
42
Wells Fargo Sell

Forward
Multiple
Multiple
Valuation
Probability
estimate
3-year avg.
assigned
per share
assigned
Tang. BV/share
28.6
1.5x
1.7x
48.7
33%
16
Forward EPS (NTM)
4.12
9.7x
10.5x
43.3
33%
14
61.1
33%
20
DCF valuation
Value/share
51
Our fair value for WFC is derived using a probability-weighted methodology that includes a
DCF and trading multiples (tangible book and earnings).

A faster-than-expected pick-up in short-term interest rates, consumer loan growth and
mortgage banking.
9 April 2015
43
Summary financials
Wells Fargo & Co. financials ($m)
FY2014
Q1 15e
Q2 15e
Q3 15e
Q4 15e
FY2015e
FY2016e
Net interest income
43,527
11,000
11,194
11,315
11,525
45,034
48,381
Non-interest income
40,820
10,129
10,478
10,526
10,498
41,631
44,103
Revenue
84,347
21,129
21,672
21,841
22,023
86,665
92,484
1,395
622
665
707
758
2,752
3,859
Operating expense
49,037
12,136
12,411
12,488
12,792
49,827
52,079
Pre-tax income
33,915
8,371
8,596
8,645
8,474
34,086
36,547
Income tax expense
10,307
2,679
2,751
2,766
2,712
10,908
11,695
Net income
23,057
5,609
5,763
5,796
5,679
22,846
24,520
21,821
5,282
5,436
5,469
5,352
21,538
23,212
Community Banking
50,862
7,491
7,614
7,658
7,793
30,555
32,448
Wholesale Banking
23,482
3,019
3,074
3,129
3,194
12,416
13,651
Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement
14,218
842
866
896
916
3,520
3,893
Income statement
Specific business lines (revenues)
Ratios and payout

Net interest margin
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2%
58.1%
57.4%
57.3%
57.2%
58.1%
57.5%
56.3%
Dividends
7,069
1,822
2,087
2,051
2,010
7,973
8,543
Buybacks
9,164
2,500
2,700
2,700
2,700
10,600
11,400
74%
82%
88%
87%
88%
86%
86%
16.8%
15.6%
15.9%
15.9%
15.5%
15.7%
16.5%
4.10
1.00
1.02
1.05
1.05
4.12
4.53
5,323
5,292
5,306
5,213
5,109
5,230
5,121
Efficiency ratio
Total payout %
Earnings and Profitability
RoTE
EPS diluted
DPS
1.35
0.35
0.40
0.40
0.40
1.55
1.70
26.89
27.24
27.30
27.92
28.62
27.96
29.20
1,687,155
1,713,308
1,724,890
1,736,024
1,757,442
1,757,442
1,863,089
862,551
869,917
875,798
881,451
892,326
892,326
945,967
1,168,310
1,175,564
1,183,511
1,191,150
1,205,846
1,205,846
1,278,334
75%
73%
73%
73%
73%
74%
74%
Gross NPL ratio
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
Coverage Ratio %
96%
94%
92%
93%
90%
90%
85%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
Core Tier 1 ratio
11.0%
11.1%
11.2%
11.3%
11.3%
11.3%
11.3%
10.4%
10.3%
10.4%
10.4%
10.3%
10.3%
10.1%
8.6%
8.4%
8.4%
8.4%
8.3%
8.4%
8.2%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.4%
5.5%
5.5%
5.4%
Tangible BPS
Balances
Total assets
Total gross loans
Total deposits
Loan to deposit
Capital ratios
Numbers exclude CVA/DVA

Source: Company, SG Cross Asset Research/Equity for estimates
9 April 2015
44
APPENDIX
COMPANIES MENTIONED
Akbank (AKBNK.IS, Buy)
Banco Popular (POP.MC, Buy)
Bank of America (BAC.N, Buy)
Bank Pekao SA (PEO.WA, Sell)
Bankinter (BKT.MC, Sell)
Barclays (BARC.L, Buy)
BBVA (BBVA.MC, Sell)
Caixabank (CABK.MC, Buy)
Citigroup (C.N, Hold)
Commerzbank (CBKG.DE, Buy)
Crdit Agricole SA (CAGR.PA, Buy)
Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX, Sell)
Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE, Sell)
DNB (DNB.OL, Buy)
Euronext (ENX.PA, Buy)
Goldman Sachs (GS.N, Sell)
HSBC (HSBA.L, Buy)
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.MI, Buy)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM.N, Buy)
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L, Buy)
London Stock Exchange (LSE.L, Hold)
Morgan Stanley (MS.N, Hold)
Nordea (NDA.ST, Sell)
UBI Banca (UBI.MI, Buy)
UBS AG (UBSN.S, Buy)
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC.N, Sell)
YapiKredi Bank (YKBNK.IS, Buy)
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The following named research analyst(s) hereby certifies or certify that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or
her or their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and (ii) no part of his or her or their compensation was, is, or
will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Murali Gopal, Andrew Lim, Anubhav
Srivastava
The analyst(s) who author research are employed by SG and its affiliates in locations, including but not limited to, Paris, London, New York,
Dallas, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Bangalore, Mumbai, Frankfurt, Madrid, Milan, Seoul, Warsaw and Moscow.
SG EQUITY RESEARCH RATINGS on a 12 months period (in effect
as of March 14, 2012)
BUY: absolute total shareholder return forecast of 15% or more
over a 12 month period.
HOLD: absolute total shareholder return forecast between
and +15% over a 12 month period.
Equity rating and dispersion relationship

300
Updated on 01/04/15
40%
0%
250
SELL: absolute total shareholder return forecast below 0% over a

12 month period.
200
Total shareholder return means forecast share price appreciation

plus all forecast cash dividend income, including income from
special dividends, paid during the 12 month period. Ratings are
determined by the ranges described above at the time of the
initiation of coverage or a change in rating (subject to limited
management discretion). At other times, ratings may fall outside of
these ranges because of market price movements and/or other
short term volatility or trading patterns. Such interim deviations
from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to
150
9 April 2015
44%
48%
42%
16%
100
50
28%
0
Buy
Companies Covered
Hold
Sell
Cos. w/ Banking Relationship
45
review by research management.
Prior to the change in SG Equity Ratings on March 14, 2012, the

SG Equity Ratings in effect were: BUY (expected upside of 10% or
more over a 12 month period; HOLD (expected return between 10% and +10% over a 12 month period); and SELL (expected
downside of -10% or worse over a 12 month period).
Sector Weighting Definition on a 12 months period:
The sector weightings are assigned by the SG Equity Research
Strategist and are distinct and separate from SG equity research
analyst ratings. They are based on the relevant MSCI.
OVERWEIGHT: sector expected to outperform the relevant broad
market benchmark over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: sector expected to perform in-line with the relevant
broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
UNDERWEIGHT: sector expected to underperform the relevant
broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
The Preferred and Least preferred stocks are selected by the
covering analyst based on the individual analysts coverage
universe and not by the SG Equity Research Strategist.
All pricing information included in this report is as of market close, unless otherwise stated.
MSCI DISCLAIMER: The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI). Without
prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, redisseminated or
used to create any financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an as is basis. The user assumes the entire
risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the
information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular
purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any
third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan
Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates or such similar language as may be
provided by or approved in advance by MSCI.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Akbank
SG acted as joint bookrunner Akbank's new bond issue (USD 10yr).
Akbank
SG acted as joint lead manager in the disposal of Akbank's shares by Citibank.
Banco Popular
SG acted as joint bookrunner in Banco Popular Espanol's bond issue (EUR, 5yr).
Bank of America
SG acted as Co-manager in Bank of America's new bond issue (3yr).
Bank of America
SG acted as co-manager in Bank of America's bond issue (PerpNC10yr).
Bank of America
SG acted as co-manager in the forthcoming BANK OF AMERICA's capital raising (USD Perp 5yrs).
Bank of America
SG acted as co-manager in Bank of America's bond issue (5yr).
Barclays
SG acted as joint bookrunner for Barclay's bond issue (3y GBP covered bond)
BBVA
SG acted as joint bookrunner in BBVA's bond issue (5yr)
Caixabank
SG is mandated in Criteria Caixaholding's (subsidary of Caixabank) forthcoming bond issue.
Citigroup
SG acted as Co-manager in Citigroup's new bond issue (10yr)
Citigroup
SG acted as Co-manager in Citigroup's new bond issue (5yr,USD,2020).
Citigroup
SG acted as joint lead manager in Citi's bond issue (7yr).
Citigroup
SG acted as co-manager in Citigroup's bond Issue (12yr).
Citigroup
SG acted as co-manager on the forthcoming Citigroup bond issue.
Citigroup
SG acted as joint lead manager in Citigroup's bonds issue (Benchmark, perp)
Crdit Agricole SA
SG acted as joint lead manager in Credit Agricole's bond issue (EUR, 1bn)
Deutsche Bank AG
SG acted as co-manager in Deutsche Bank's bond issue (EUR, 2.75%, 17/02/2025).
Deutsche Bank AG
SG acted as co-lead manager on Deutsche Bank's bond issue (1.25% 08/09/2021 EUR).
Deutsche Bank AG
SG acted as joint bookrunner on Deutsche Bank rights issue.
Deutsche Bank AG
SG acted as co-lead manager in Deutsche Bank's bond issue (15/04/19 FRN EUR).
DNB
SG acted as sole financial advisor to DNB in the disposal of JSC Commercial Bank DNB.
Euronext
SG acted as joint bookrunner in Ice's disposal of Euronext's shares.
Euronext
SG acted as global coordinator and joint bookrunner in EURONEXT N.V's IPO.
HSBC
SG acted as lead manager in HSBC's bond issue.
HSBC
SG acted as co-manager in HSBC BANK's bond issue
HSBC
SG acted as co-lead manager in HSBC's bond issue (Perp.2020 - 2024).
Intesa Sanpaolo
SG acted as joint bookrunner in Intesa SanPaolo's bond issue (5yr).
Intesa Sanpaolo
SG makes a market in Intesa Sanpaolo warrants
JPMorgan Chase & Co. SG acted as joint lead manager in JPMorgan's bond issue (EUR, 0.6% 27/01/2020 ; EUR 1.5% 27/01/2025).
JPMorgan Chase & Co. SG acted as a co-manager in JP Morgan's bond issue.
Morgan Stanley
SG acted as co-manager in Morgan Stanley's bond issue (5yr,30yr)
Morgan Stanley
SG acted as a co-manager in Morgan Stanley's bond issue (USD, 1.875% 05/01/2018).
Morgan Stanley
SG acted as co-manager on Morgan Stanley's bond issue.
9 April 2015
46
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley
Nordea
YapiKredi Bank
YapiKredi Bank
SG acted as co-manager in Morgan Stanley's bond issue.

SG acted as co-manager on Morgan Stanley bond issue.
SG acted as Joint Bookrunner in Nordea's new bond issue (10yr EUR)
SG acted as joint lead manager in Yapi Kredi bond TAP
SG acted as joint lead manager in Yapikredi bank's bond issue (USD Octobre 2019).
SG and its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity of Bank of America, Barclays, Euronext, Intesa Sanpaolo,
Lloyds Banking Group.
SG or its affiliates act as market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities of BBVA, Banco Popular, Bankinter, Commerzbank,
Credit Suisse, Crdit Agricole SA, Deutsche Bank AG, Intesa Sanpaolo, UBI Banca.
SG or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months from BBVA, Banco
Popular, Bank of America, Caixabank, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, Crdit Agricole SA, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, UBI
Banca.
SG or its affiliates had an investment banking client relationship during the past 12 months with Akbank, BBVA, Banco Popular, Bank of
America, Barclays, Caixabank, Citigroup, Crdit Agricole SA, DNB, Deutsche Bank AG, Euronext, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase &
Co., Morgan Stanley, Nordea, YapiKredi Bank.
SG or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months from Akbank, BBVA, Banco Popular,
Bank of America, Barclays, Caixabank, Citigroup, Crdit Agricole SA, DNB, Deutsche Bank AG, Euronext, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan
Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, Nordea, YapiKredi Bank.
SG or its affiliates managed or co-managed in the past 12 months a public offering of securities of Akbank, BBVA, Banco Popular, Bank of
America, Barclays, Caixabank, Citigroup, Crdit Agricole SA, Deutsche Bank AG, Euronext, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase & Co.,
Morgan Stanley, Nordea, YapiKredi Bank.
SG received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services in the past 12 months from Akbank, BBVA,
Banco Popular, Bank of America, Bankinter, Barclays, Caixabank, Citigroup, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, Crdit Agricole SA, DNB,
Deutsche Bank AG, Euronext, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lloyds Banking Group, London Stock
Exchange, Morgan Stanley, Nordea, UBI Banca, UBS AG, Wells Fargo & Co..
SGAS had a non-investment banking non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with Akbank, Banco Popular, Bank
of America, Bankinter, Barclays, Caixabank, Citigroup, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, Crdit Agricole SA, DNB, Deutsche Bank AG, Euronext,
Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lloyds Banking Group, Morgan Stanley, Nordea, UBS AG, Wells Fargo &
Co..
SGAS had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with Citigroup.
SGAS received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services in the past 12 months from Akbank, Banco
Popular, Bank of America, Bankinter, Barclays, Caixabank, Citigroup, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, Crdit Agricole SA, DNB, Deutsche Bank
AG, Euronext, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lloyds Banking Group, Morgan Stanley, Nordea, UBS AG,
Wells Fargo & Co..
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OTHER THAN THE PRIMARY SUBJECT OF THIS RESEARCH REPORT, PLEASE VISIT OUR GLOBAL RESEARCH DISCLOSURE
WEBSITE AT http://www.sgresearch.com/compliance.rha or call +1 (212).278.6000 in the U.S.
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responsible for the sales effort in their sector and are not part of SGs Cross-Asset Research Department. Specialist Sales do not contribute
in any manner to the content of research reports in which their names appear.
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Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: The name(s) of any non-U.S. analysts who contributed to this report and their SG legal entity are listed below.
U.S. analysts are employed by SG Americas Securities LLC. The non-U.S. analysts are not registered/qualified with FINRA, may not be
associated persons of SGAS and may not be subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held in the research analyst(s) account(s): Murali Gopal Socit Gnrale Bangalore, Andrew Lim Socit
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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The information herein is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any
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9 April 2015
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48

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EQUITY

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Global Investment Banks

are widely anticipated to be healthy (consensus = up mid-high single-digit percentage points

10.0% 10.9 Cleaner turnaround in profitability, RoTE to rise to to11% in FY15

Global Investment Banks

Global Investment Banks

Global Investment Banks

Key SG bank sub-sector calls

- Funding costs and restructuring to drive EPS upgrades

- Sound credit quality and capital

- Further deposit repricing likely, accelerated by eventual rate rises

- Return to healthy earnings growth, and greater consistency

- Higher AUM driven by rising markets and net new money

- Wealth management benefits from operating leverage and rising rates

- ISP safer and cheaper way to play peripheral banks

- Valuations discount blue sky scenario in some names

- Domestic conditions improving

- Continued restructuring to offset rising cost of being international

- Trading weakness on rising US rates and volatility spikes

- Diversified earnings stream

- Potential earnings downgrade due to EM exposure

Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity

Global Investment Banks

Call: 8:30 am (EST)

Call: 8.30 am (EST)

Call: 11.00 am (EST)

Call: 9:30am EST

Call: 8:30am EST

(866) 541-2724 (US/Can)

(866) 516-9582 (US/Can)

(866) 786-8836 (US/Can)

(973) 409-9210 (Int)

(706) 634-7246 (Intl)

Conference ID: 79795

Conference ID: 90108772

Earnings estimates fine tuned; target price and

Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity

Global Investment Banks

SG estimates versus consensus (Q1 15)

Per share items

Dividends per share

Book value per share

P&L statement ($m)

12,045 11,442 14,039 13,053

7,688 10,129 10,009

21,297 21,362 25,013 24,379 19,835 19,903 21,129 21,238

Loan loss provision

9,902 10,974 11,145 11,870 11,914 11,000 11,215

15,295 15,266 14,876 14,963 11,435 11,568 12,136 12,523

SG estimates versus consensus (2015)

Per share items

46,094 44,223 49,416 48,675 45,034 46,269

55,161 53,808 28,922 29,291 41,631 41,316 29,888

59,683 59,463 46,080 45,543 49,827 50,451 22,213

37,164 34,024 23,217 24,722 34,086 34,227 11,526 12,250

21,341 21,928 16,166 16,268 22,846 21,927

23,055 24,645 32,147 32,717

Global Investment Banks

SG estimates versus consensus (2016)

Per share items

47,186 52,186 51,298 48,381 50,034

56,514 30,259 29,638 44,103 43,244 29,932