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PROSPERITY

THE CAPITALIST MANIFESTO

GREEDIS GOOD
(TO A POINT)
A SPECTER IS HAUNTIN BY FAREED ZAKARIA years that followed. The rgBZ crash was
the return of capitalism. Over the past ARTWORK BY MARK WAGNER said to be the product of computer trad-
six months, politicians, businessmen ing, which has, of course, expanded dra-
and pundits have been convinced that situation cannot improve yet because their matically since then. The East Asian crisis
we are in the midst of a crisis of capital- own sweeping solutions to the problem was meant to end the happy talk about
ism that will require a massive trans- have not been implemented. Most of us 'tmerging
markets," which are now at the
formation and years of pain to fix. want to see more punishment inflicted, center of world growth. The collapse of
Nothing will ever be the same again. particularly on America's bankers. Deep Long-Term Capital Management in r99B-
'Another
ideological god has failed," the down we all have a Puritan belief that which then-Treasury secretary Robert
dean of financial commentators. Mar- unless they suffer a good dose ofpain, they Rubin described as "the worst financial
tin Wolf. wrote in the Financial Times. will not truly repent. In fact, there has crisis in go years"-was meant to be the
Companies will "fundamentally reset" been much pain, especially in the financial end of hedge funds, which then massively
the way they work, said the CEO of Gen- industry, where tens of thousands ofjobs, expanded. The technology bubble's burst-
eral Electric, Jeffrey Immelt. "Capitalism at all levels, have been lost. But fundamen- ing in zooo was supposed to put an end
will be different," said Treasury Secretary tally, markets are not about morality. They to the dreams of oddball Internet start-
Timothy Geithner. are large, complex systems, and if things ups. Goodbye, Pets.com; hello, Twitter.
No economic system ever remains get stable enough, they move on. Now we hear that this crisis is the end of
unchanged, of course, and certainly not Consider our track record over the derivatives. Let's see. Robert Shiller, one
after a deep financial collapse and a broad past 20 years, starting with the stock- of the few who predicted this crash almost
global recession. But over the past few market crash of 19BZ when on Oct. r9 exactly-and the dotcom bust as well-
months, even though we've had an imper- the DowJones lost 23 percent, the largest argues that in fact we need more deriva-
fect stimulus package, nationalized no one-day loss in its history. The legend- tives to make markets more stable.
banks and undergone no grand reinven- ary economist John Kenneth Galbraith A few years from now, strange as it may
tion of capitalism, the sense ofpanic seems wrote that he just hoped that the coming sound, we might all find that we are hungry
to be easing. Perhaps this is a mirage-or recession wouldn't prove as painful as for more capitalism, not less. An economic
perhaps the measures taken by states the Great Depression. It turned out to be crisis slows growth, and when countries
around the world, chiefly the U.S. gov- a blip on the way to an even bigger, lon- need growth, they turn to markets. After
ernment, have restored normalcy. Every ger boom. Then there was the 1992 East the Mexican and East Asian currency cri-
expert has a critique of specific policies, Asian crisis, during the depths of which ses-which were far more painful in those
but over time we might see that faced with Paul Krugman wrote in a Fortune cover countries than the current downturn
the decision to underreact or overreact, essay, "Never in the course of economic has been in America-we saw the pace of
most governments chose the latter. That events-not even in the early years of market-oriented reform speed up. If, in
choice might produce new problems in the Depression-has so large a part of the years ahead, the American consumer
due course-a topic for another essay- the world economy experienced so dev- remains reluctant to spend, if federal and
but it appears to have averted a systemic astating a fall from grace." He went on state governments groan under their debt
breakdown. to argue that if Asian countries did not loads, if government-owned companies
There is still a long road ahead. There adopt his radical strategy-currency remain expensive burdens, then private-
will be many more bankruptcies. Banks controls-"we could be looking at ... the sector activity will become the only path
will have to slowly earn their way out of kind of slump that 6o years ago dev- to create jobs. The simple truth is that
their problems or die. Consumers will save astated societies, destabilized govern- with all its flaws, capitalism remains the
more before they start spending again. ments, and eventually led to war." Only most productive economic engine we
Mountains of debt will have to be reduced. one Asian country instituted currency have yet invented. Like Churchill's line
American capitalism is being rebalanced, controls, and partial ones at that. All about democracy, it is the worst of all eco-
reregulated and thus restored. In doing rebounded within two years. nomic systems, except for the others. Its
so it will have to face up to long-neglected Each crisis convinced observers that chief vindication today has come halfway
problems, if this is to lead to a true recov- it signaled the end of some new, danger- across the world, in countries like China
ery, notjust a briefreprieve. ous feature of the economic landscape. and India, which have been able to grow
Many experts are convinced that the But often that novelty accelerated in the and pull hundreds of millions of people

N E W S W E E K . CNo M r t
PANICS,CRASHESAND FULL.ILOWNDEPRESSIONS DATE : TULIPMANIA:Speculators LOUISIANAORBUST: SOUTHSEAS FANTASY:
A L M O S TA S F A R B A C K A S T H E B I R T HO F T H E M O D E R N : in the Netherlandsbid up Unwaryinvestorsare swept London'sSouthSeaCo.goes
F I N A N C I A LS Y S T E MI N T H E N E T H E R L A N D S
AROUND : t u t i p b u l b s t o d i z z y i nhge i g h t s away by tales of outsizeprofits deepintodebt to supportits
1 6 2 0 . A F E W O F T H E M O S TM E M O R A B L ES E T B A C K S : i beforethe inevitablecrash. in France'sLouisianaTerritorv. ctaimsof fabulousPacificfinds

out ofpoverty by supporting marketsand thusly: "TWo nations, the most commer- with other people'smoney.("Headsthey lato
free trade.Last month India held elections cial in the world, enjoying but recently win, tails they break even," is how Bar- rate
during the worst of this crisis. Its powerful the highest degreeofapparent prosperity ney Frank describesthe current setup.) ever
left-wing parties campaignedagainstlib- and maintaining with eachother the clos- Derivatives need to be better controlled. chai
eralization and got their worst drubbing at est relations, are suddenly... plunged To call banks casinos, as is often done, sam
the polls in 4o years. into a state of embarrassmentand dis- is actually unfair to casinos, which are mon
Capitalism means growth, but also tress. In both countries we have wit- required to hold certain levels of capi- Man
instability. The system is dynamic and nessed the same lexpansion] of paper tal becausethey must be able to cash in drar
inherently prone to crashes that cause money and other facilities of credit; the a customer'schips. Banks have not been the ,
great damagealong the way. For about 90 same spirit of speculation... the same required to do that for their key deriva- cent
years, we have been trying to regulate the overwhelming catastrophe." Obama tivescontract,credit default swaps. abor
systemto stabilizeit while still preserving could put that on his teleprompter today. Yetat the sametime, we should proceed liqui
cautiously on massive new regulations. 1998
Many rules put in place in the r93osstill rose
WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING IS NOT A CRISIS OF look smart; the problem is that over the cent
past$ yearsthey weredismantled,or con- trilli
sciousdecisionswere made not to update bubl
OF GLOBALIZATION AND ULTIMATELY OF ETHICS. them. Keepin mind that the oneadvanced lowt
industrial country where the banking infla
systemhas weatheredthe storm superbly G
its energy.We areat the start of anotherset Many of the regulatory reforms that is Canada,which just kept the old rules can
of theseefforts. In undertaking them, it is people in government are talking about in place, requiring banks to hold higher deca
important to keep in mind what exactly now seem sensible and smart. Banks amountsof capitalto offsettheir liabilities harc
went wrong. What we are experiencing that are too large to fail should also be and to maintain lower levelsof leverage.A tin,
is not a crisis of capitalism.It is a crisis of too large be leveraged at 3o to r. The few simple safeguards,and the whole sys- and
finance,of democracy,of globalizationand incentives for executives within banks tem surviveda massivestorm. take
ultimately of ethics. are skewed toward reckless risk-taking The simplest safeguardAmerican regu- had
"Capitalism messed up," the British
tycoon Martin Sorrell wrote recently, 'br,
to be more precise,capitalistsdid." Actu-
ally, that's not true, Finance screwedup,
r.q
r;
or to be more precise,financiers did. In
JunezooT when the financial crisis began,
Coca-Cola,PepsiCo,IBM, Nike, Wal-Mart
and Microsoft were all running their com-
panieswith strongbalancesheetsand sen-
sible business models. Major American
corporations were highly profitable, and
they were spending prudently, holding
on to cashto build a cushion for a down-
turn. For that reason,many of them have
been able to weather the storm remark- ?N
ably well. Finance and anything finance-
related-like real estate-is anotherstory.
Finance has a history of messing up,
R
from the Dutch tulip bubble in 163Zto
now. The proximate causesof thesebusts
have been varied, but follow a strikingly
similar path. In calm times, political sta-
bility, economicgrowth and technologieal
innovation all encouragean atmosphere
of easy money and new forms of credit.
Cheap credit causes greed, miscalcula-
tion and eventually ruin. PresidentMar- '4 $t v
tin Van Buren described the economic c
crisis of rB3Z in Britain and America
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THE PANICOF 1907:John D.I FIRSTFLORIDALAND RUSH: THE GREATDEPRESSION: T H E ' N I F T Y5 0 ' : I n t h e 1 9 6 0 s , JAPAN SINKS:The burstingol THT
Rockefelterand J. P.Morgan Rabiddeve[opers,easycredit The roaring'20s screechto a WatIStreetswearsby these a monsterrea[-estatebubble ltoo
narrowlyavert totat cotlapse and patmydreamsmake a fine hatt, Nearl.yhal.fof the 25,000 50 targe-capstocks.By the p[ungesthe once booming loc
after a trader's i[[-judgedbet, bubbte-until.it ooos in 1925. U,S.banksfait beforeit's over, mid-'70sit swearsat them. country into a deeprecession, Ine

the number of peopledying as a result of they drove down the interest rate Wash- ers did what they were allowed to do under mos
political violenceofany kind has dropped ington had to offer, which in turn made the law. Politiciansdid what they thought has
steeplyoverthe pastthree decades. credit in America cheap.So the effect of the system asked of them. Bureaucrats wen
Then there is the end of inflation. In all this money sloshingaround the world were not exchangingcash for favors. But tive
the rg7os, dozens of countries suffered was to subsidizeAmericansin their favor- very few people acted responsibly,hon- abor
hyperinflation, which destroyedthe mid- ite activity: shopping.But it affectedother orably or nobly (the very word sounds N'
dle class. destabilized societies and led Western countries as well, from Spain to odd today).This might sound like a small busi
to political upheaval. Since then, central Ireland, where consumers and govern- point, but it is not. No system-capitalism, mon
banks have becomevery good at taming mentsloadedthemselvesup with debt. socialism,whatever-can work without a and
the monster, and by 2oo7 the number of Good times always make people com- senseof ethics and values at its core. No ness
placent.As the cost of capital sank over matter what reformswe put in place,with- firm
6$) the pastfew years,peoplebecameincreas- out commonsense,judgment and an ethi- The'
ingly foolish. The world economy had cal standard, they will prove inadequate. The'
OVER THE PAST becomethe equivalentof a racecar-faster Wewill neverknow wherethe next bubble in it
QUARTER CENTURY MORE and more complex than any vehicle any- will form. what the next innovationswill meri
one had ever seen.But it turned out that look like and where excesseswill build insa
THAN 4OOMILLION no one had driven a car like this before, up. But we can ask that peoplesteerthem- judg
PEOPLE ACROSSASIA HAVE and no onereally knew how.Soit crashed. selvesand their institutions with a greater TI
The real problem is that we're still driv- relianceon a moral compass. the
BEEN LIFTED ing this car. The global economyremains One of the great shifts taking place in ing'
OUT OF POVERTY. highly complex, interconnectedand im- American societyhas beenaway from the inev
balanced.The Chinese still pile up sur- old guild system of self-regulation.Once men
t: plusesand need to put them somewhere. upon a time, law, medicine and account-
Washingtonand Beijingwill haveto work ing viewed themselvesas private-sector
countries with high inflation had dwin- hard to slowly stabilize their mutual participants with public responsibilities.
dled to a handful. Only one, Zimbabwe, dependenceso that the systemis not being Lawyers are still called 'bfficers of the
had hyperinflation. setup for anothercrash. court." And historically they acted with
Add to this the information and Inter- More broadly, the fundamental cri- that senseof stewardshipin mind, think-
net revolutions, and you have a seriesof sis we face is of globalization itself. We ing of what was appropriatefor the whole
historical changesthat have produced a haveglobalizedthe economiesof nations. systemand not simply for their firm. That
single global system,far more integrated Trade, travel and tourism are bringing meant advising their clients againsttime-
and faster-moving than ever before. The people together.Technologyhas created consuminglitigation or mindlessmergers.
results speak for themselves.Over the worldwide supply chains, companies Elihu Root, a leaderof the New York bar
past quarter century, the global economy and customers.But our politics remains in the late rgth century,oncesaid, 'About
has doubled every 10 years, going from resolutely national. This tension is at the half the practice of a decent lawyer con-
g3r trillion in1999 to $6s trillion in zoo8. heart of the many crashesof this era-a sists in telling would-be clients that they
Recessionshavebecometamer than ever
F
mismatchbetweeninterconnectedecono- are damnedfoolsand should stop."
before, averaging eight months rather mies that are producing global problems It's not just the law that has changed;
than two years. More than 4oo million but no matching political process that so have all the professions. Ever since
peopleacrossAsia havebeenlifted out of can effectglobal solutions.Without better the r93os, accountantshave been given
poverty. Between2oo3 and 2oo?,average international coordination, there will be a unique trust. "Who audits you?"
income worldwide grew at a faster rate more crashes,and eventually there may askedSen.Alben Barkley during a 1933
(3.r percent)than in any previous period be a retreat from globalizationtoward the committee hearing. "Our conscience,"
in recorded human history. In zoo6 and safety-and slow growth-of protected replied Arthur Carter,the head of a large
2ooZ-the peak years of the boom-r2,4 nationaleconomies. accounting firm. But by zooz The Wall
countriesaround the world grew at 4 per- Throughout this essay,I have avoided StreetJournal was describing a different
cent a year or more, about four times as treating this economic crisis as a grand worl{ in which accountants had gone
many as 25yearsearlier. morality play-a war between good and from "watchdogs to lapdogs,"telling cli-
Many of thesecountrieshad more cash evil in which demon bankers destroyed ents whateverthey wanted to hear.Bank-
than they knew what to do with. China all that is good and true about our socie- ers similarly once saw themselves as
sits on a war chest of more than gz tril- ties. Complexhistorical eventscan rarely being stewards of capital, responsibleto
lion, while eight other emerging-market be reducedto somethingso simple.But we their many constituents and embodying
nations have reservesof more than $roo are suffering from a moral crisis, too, one trust. But over the past few decades,they
billion. They've all looked to the safest that may lie at the heart of our problems. too becameobsessedwith profits and the
investmentthey could imagine-U.S. gov- Most of what happened over the past short term. uncertain about their own
ernment debt. In buying so much debt, decadeacrossthe world was legal. Bank- future and that of their company. The

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