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Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 1

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Sunny days: Government incentives will


support revenue growth as demand heats up

IBISWorld Industry Report 22111e

Solar Power in the US


December 2014

Darryle Ulama

2 About this Industry

16 International Trade

31 Key Statistics

Industry Definition

17 Business Locations

31 Industry Data

Main Activities

Similar Industries

19 Competitive Landscape

Additional Resources

19 Market Share Concentration

31 Annual Change

19 Key Success Factors

3 Industry at a Glance

31 Key Ratios

32 Jargon & Glossary

19 Cost Structure Benchmarks


21 Basis of Competition

4 Industry Performance

22 Barriers to Entry

Executive Summary

23 Industry Globalization

Key External Drivers

Current Performance

24 Major Companies

Industry Outlook

24 NextEra Energy Inc.

11 Industry Life Cycle

27 Operating Conditions
13 Products & Markets

27 Capital Intensity

13 Supply Chain

28 Technology & Systems

13 Products & Services

28 Revenue Volatility

14 Demand Determinants

29 Regulation & Policy

15 Major Markets

30 Industry Assistance

www.ibisworld.com | 1-800-330-3772 | info @ibisworld.com

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 2

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About this Industry


Industry Definition

Operators in this industry own and


operate solar-power-generating
facilities in the form of either
photovoltaic panels or solar thermal

Main Activities

The primary activities of this industry are

power stations that make use of mirrors


or lenses to concentrate the suns
energy. Operators then sell the energy
to downstream customers.

Solar-fueled power generation

The major products and services in this industry are


Concentrating solar power
Photovoltaic power

Similar Industries

22112 Electric Power Transmission in the US


Operators in this industry transmit and distribute electricity.
22111a Coal & Natural Gas Power in the US
Operators in this industry generates electricity from fossil fuel, such as coal and gas.
22111b Nuclear Power in the US
Operators in this industry generates electricity in nuclear power stations.
22111c Hydroelectric Power in the US
Operators in this industry generates electricity from large water dams.
22111d Wind Power in the US
Operators in this industry generates wind power using turbines and sets up wind farms.

Additional Resources

For additional information on this industry


www.ases.org
American Solar Energy Society
www.seia.org
Solar Energy Industries Association
www.census.gov
US Census Bureau
www.energy.gov
US Department of Energy

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Solar Power in the US December 2014

Industry at a Glance
Solar Power in 2014

Key Statistics
Snapshot

Revenue

Annual Growth 09-14

Annual Growth 14-19

Profit

Wages

Businesses

$491.9m 70.0%

7.6%
$65.0m 91

$83.6m

Price of semiconductor and electronic


components

Revenue vs. employment growth

Market Share

NextEra Energy
Inc. 1 2.0%

160

80
70

80

Index

% change

120

40

60
50

0
40

Year 06

08

10

Revenue

12

14

16

18

20

40

Year 06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

Employment
SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

p. 24

Products and services segmentation (2014)

Key External Drivers


Tax credits for
energy efficiency

35%

Price of semiconductor
and electronic
components

Concentrating solar power

Electric power
consumption
World price of
steaming coal

65%

Photovoltaic power

World price of natural gas

p. 4
SOURCE:
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SOURCE:
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Industry Structure

Life Cycle Stage


Revenue Volatility

Growth
Very High

Regulation Level
Technology Change

Heavy
Medium

Capital Intensity

High

Barriers to Entry

Industry Assistance

High

Industry Globalization

Medium

Concentration Level

Low

Competition Level

Medium

FOR ADDITIONAL STATISTICS AND TIME SERIES SEE THE APPENDIX ON PAGE 31

High

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 4

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Industry Performance

Executive Summary | Key External Drivers | Current Performance


Industry Outlook | Life Cycle Stage
Executive
Summary

The Solar Power industry has


experienced clear skies over the five years
to 2014, propelled by favorable
government incentives in the form of
renewable portfolio standard (RPS) laws
and tax credits. RPS legislation, currently
implemented in more than 30 states and
territories, requires local utilities to
generate a percentage of their total
energy portfolio from renewable sources.
Meanwhile, increased public support for
green energy has led to tax incentives and
grants to encourage investments in solar
power. Additionally, semiconductor input

Continued

state mandates for renewable


energy will translate into higher revenue
costs have continued to fall during the
period. In light of these trends, industry
revenue is expected to grow at an
annualized rate of 70.0% to $491.9
million in the five years to 2014,
including growth of 90.3% in 2014 alone.
Federal and state government
assistance for renewable energy has led
to strong growth in solar power. The
increase in projects over the past five
years exemplifies a triumph for industrial
policy in solar power, which historically
struggled to compete with established
energy sources, such as coal and natural
gas. Credits, grants and tax exemptions

Key External Drivers

Tax credits for energy efficiency


Tax credits for energy efficiency
incentivize solar energy generation by
lowering industry operators cost of
production and subsequently increasing
profit margins. These tax credits also
allow solar energy generators to compete
on the price of electricity with other and
more established energy sources, such as
coal and natural gas, and thereby
encourage entrance into the growing

have helped mitigate the high


investment costs of solar power
generation, encouraging industry
activity. Furthermore, a decline in the
price of silicon, an essential
semiconductor input in solar panels, has
lowered the operational costs incurred
by industry operators. Falling input
costs have accelerated the number of
photovoltaic (PV) panel projects and
widened profit margins. In 2014,
industry profit is expected to account for
17.0% of total revenue.
In the five years to 2019, industry
revenue is expected to increase at an
annualized 7.6% to $710.0 million.
Government support will continue to
help the industry compete with other
energy sources, at least in the first half of
the next five years. State mandates for
renewable energy power and lower input
costs will continue to translate into high
revenue growth. Electricity consumption
is projected to pick up in the next five
years, and operators are poised to meet
the growing demand for cleaner energy.
PV solar power generation is also
anticipated to achieve grid parity during
this time period, whereby the cost of
solar-generated electricity is equal to or
less than the retail rate of grid power.
These trends suggest that the industry
will become more viable in the next five
years, lowering its dependence on
government assistance.

industry. Tax credits for energy efficiency


are expected to remain the same in 2015.
Price of semiconductor and
electronic components
Semiconductor and electronic
components are essential inputs in the
production of solar panels, which are
major purchase costs for industry
operators. Thus, price movements of
semiconductor components generally

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 5

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Industry Performance

influence industry profit; when


semiconductor input prices decrease,
solar panels become less expensive, in
turn increasing profit margins for solar
energy generators. The price of
semiconductor and electronic
components is expected to decrease in
2015, representing a potential
opportunity for the industry.
Electric power consumption
Electric power consumption drives
overall demand for energy, including
solar energy. An increase in electric
power consumption will typically lead to
an increase in demand for solar energy
from industry operators; conversely, a
decline in electric power consumption
will lower demand for solar energy,
dampening industry revenue. Electric
power consumption is expected to
decrease slightly in 2015, representing a
potential threat to the industry.
World price of steaming coal
Solar energy competes with other energy
sources such as coal, which currently

generates the largest share of US


electricity. Thus, an increase in the price
of coal will typically lead to an increase in
demand for substitute energy sources
such as solar energy, which becomes
relatively more affordable to electricity
generators; as a result, industry operators
benefit. Conversely, a decline in the price
of coal will typically lower demand for
solar energy from industry operators. The
world price of steaming coal is expected
to decrease in 2015.
World price of natural gas
In addition to coal, solar competes with
natural gas in providing energy to
American consumers. Thus, the price
movement of natural gas generally moves
in line with demand for substitute energy
sources, such as solar power. If the price
of natural gas increases, there is typically
a greater demand for substitute solar
energy; if the price of natural gas
decreases, demand for solar energy will
also likely decrease. The world price of
natural gas is expected to increase
slightly in 2015.
Electric power consumption

Price of semiconductor and electronic


components

4200

Billion kilowatt hours

80
70

Index

Key External Drivers


continued

60
50
40

Year 06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600

Year 06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 6

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Industry Performance

Strong government
support

The Solar Power industry has been


basking in sunlight over the past five
years, spurred by strong government
incentives and falling input costs.
Industry performance is dependent on
the volume and price of solar generation,
which is driven by overall electricity
consumption. However, extremely high
capital costs and competition from
established energy sources have
historically hindered solar energy
generation. Recently, industry operators
have benefited from attractive tax credits
and requirements for downstream
utilities to diversify energy holdings and
integrate renewable energy into their
portfolio. In addition, falling prices of
solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have
propelled the industry forward since
2010. As a result, solar power plants have
been built at accelerating rates over the

past five years. In light of these trends


and financial incentives, industry revenue
is expected to grow at an average annual
rate of 70.0% to $491.9 million in the five
years to 2014.

Government legislation has been an


essential force in the Solar Power
industry in the past five years. As an
emergent energy source, solar and its
associated technology could not compete
with established energy sources, such as
coal and natural gas, even as public
support for renewable energy gained
traction. High initial capital costs,
continued research and development
efforts made solar uncompetitive with
other energy sources, prompting the
government to step in and enact
legislation that would catalyze the
industry. The role of the government was
particularly crucial in the aftermath of
the recession, when private investors cut
back their investments in solar. To
counter investment losses, the
government provided grants and tax
incentives to solar companies so that they
remained operative.
The US government has enacted
several key laws and incentives that have
benefited the industry over the past five

years. The federal investment tax credit


(ITC), first introduced in 2006 and
extended into 2016, has allowed solarpower-generation operators to write off
30.0% of the taxes associated with
building a plant, which has encouraged
investment in the industry.
Furthermore, to promote renewable
energy during the tough economic
conditions following the recession, the
government provided cash grant
equivalents to the tax write-off for the
construction of new projects. This
incentive has spurred significant
investment in solar power plants over
the past five years, especially in 2009
and 2010. According to the Solar Energy
Industries Association (SEIA), the
multiple-year extension of ITC has
helped annual installation grow
1600.0% since 2006. As a result, many
operators entered the industry with the
hopes of using the incentives to start
selling solar-generated power. In the five
years to 2014, the number of industry

Industry revenue
160
120

% change

Current
Performance

80
40
0
40

Year 06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

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Industry Performance

Strong government
support
continued

Innovative financing
mechanisms

enterprises is forecast to grow at an


annualized 7.0% to 91 operators.
The renewable portfolio standard
(RPS), another important incentive,
requires utility companies to generate a
percentage of their energy from a
renewable source in states that have
passed the mandate. According to the US
Energy Information Administration
(EIA), 29 states, Washington, DC and
Puerto Rico, have passed RPS laws,
reflecting the growing government
support for renewable energy. For
example, California requires 33.0% of its
generated energy to be renewable by
2020. The penalties vary from state to
state with regard to violation of the
requirement, but most are in the form of
compliance payments. This regulatory
trend has facilitated solid renewable
energy growth in states with RPS laws.
RPS legislation has also resulted in job
growth within the Solar Power industry,
as more employees are required to

initiate and operate solar projects.


Consequently, industry employment is
expected to grow at an annualized 14.2%
to 486 people in the five years to 2014.
At the state and local level, solar tax
incentives exist in the form of property
tax and sales tax exemptions. Property
tax exemptions allow businesses to
exclude the value of a solar system from
the valuation of their property for tax
purposes. According to the SEIA, there
are currently 38 states that offer property
tax exemptions for renewable energy.
Furthermore, 29 states currently offer
sales tax exemptions for purchase of
solar-energy systems.

The rise of innovative financing


mechanisms such as power-purchase
agreements (PPAs) also contributed to
revenue growth in the past five years, as
they facilitated the sale of energy from
solar-power producers to downstream
customers. The industry differs
markedly from its competitor industries
of coal and gas power generation in
terms of ownership. In the Solar Power
industry, independent power producers
that sell power to the wholesale market
rather than distributing it through their
own retail network generate the highest
percentage of solar power. These
independent power producers generate
revenue by entering into a power
purchasing agreement (PPA) with the
interested buyer. A PPA offers revenue
opportunities for small producers by
allowing them to generate power
without a large investment. The

agreement allows the producer to sell


its energy to any customer, given that
the electricity infrastructure is
favorable. Typically, these customers
are large utilities companies that are
required to buy and sell renewable
energy as a result of the RPSs.
Industry operators that have joint
ventures with utilities tend to decrease
risk by owning a small share of the
project. Utilities companies often
employ this strategy to lower the risk
of the overall project.
Solar energy can also be used for
power-plant-electricity generation and in
homes and businesses. Each of these
segments uses the PPA as a contract to
deliver and generate energy at a specified
point and location. They are generally
supported by government incentives that
lower the cost of initial investment and,
thus, the cost of electricity generation.

RPS

laws require utilities


to generate a minimum
amount of energy,
benefiting the industry

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Industry Performance

Falling panel prices


spur growth

Dawn of solar

In addition to attractive government


incentives and financing options, the
declining prices of solar panels have been
a significant contributor to the industrys
rapid growth over the past five years.
Underlining this trend is a fall in the
price of semiconductor devices, essential
inputs in the production of solar panels.
In the five years to 2014, the price of
semiconductor and electronic
components has declined at an average
annual rate of 2.2%, leading to lower
panel costs. According to a joint-research
study conducted by the SEIA and GTM
Research, solar panel costs in the second
quarter of 2013 were down 60.0% from
the first quarter of 2011. Solar-panel
prices are expected to continue to drop in
2014 as production costs continue to fall.
According to Solarbuzz, the average cost
for tier-1 photovoltaic (PV)
manufacturers is anticipated to drop
6.0% throughout 2014. Lower costs have
allowed solar-power generators to
expand their production capacity. In
2012, 3,364 PV systems were installed,
surpassing the combined total of 2010
and 2011 installations. As a result,

industry revenue increased 133.9% in


2012 alone.
The drop in solar-panel prices has
also resulted in widening profit margins
over the past five years. Due to declining
semiconductor prices, a surge in the
market for silicon allowed industry
operators to purchase panels at lower
prices. Domestic and foreign
manufacturers produced too many
panels for too few projects during the
recession, during which the ability to
finance solar projects became
increasingly difficult. Oversupply caused
prices for solar equipment to drop
during that period. Additionally,
manufacturers are increasingly using
less silicon per solar module and panel
to decrease costs and meet growing
demand from industry players.

Electricity production from solar power has


expanded broadly over the past five years,
yet solar accounts for only 0.23% (2013,
latest data available) of total electricity
generated in the United States.
Nevertheless, the industrys rapid growth,
spurred by government policy and
augmented by strong public support,

suggests that solar will secure its place in the


domestic energy sector. In 2013, the SEIA
projected that the United States would
surpass Germany in solar installations for
the first time in 15 years. The industrys
explosive growth will continue through
2014, as revenue is anticipated to grow
90.3% to $491.9 million.

Declining

prices of solar
panels have been a
significant contributor to
industry growth

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Industry Performance

Industry
Outlook

The Solar Power industry is poised for


additional growth over the next five
years. During this time, favorable
government legislation is expected to
continue making solar power cost
competitive with other energygeneration sources. Moreover, the price
of silicon (the industrys main input)
will continue to decrease, lowering
panel costs and driving growth. General
economic conditions are anticipated to
strengthen, as consumer income and
business investment increase. As these
trends prevail, electricity consumption
is expected to increase. Demand for
solar power will rise in tandem with
general electricity demand, as
companies seek to diversify energy

Push for solar energy

Throughout the next five years, more


states are expected to introduce
ambitious renewable energy targets with
specific requirements for solar power.
Currently, 29 states, Washington, DC
and Puerto Rico have mandated RPS
legislation, requiring utilities to generate
renewable energy as part of their energy
mix. Utilities companies are anticipated
to meet these goals, thereby providing
more opportunities for solar-generation
companies to put solar on the map. As
the mandated RPS goals approach the
deadline, more utilities companies will
scramble to reach the target. Several
RPS goals are set for 2015, and states
under these programs will experience
the fastest growth for solar generation.
These states are expected to contribute
to growth of 19.2% in industry revenue
over 2015. Most other states have RPSs
goals set for 2020.
Additionally, the US Bureau of Land
Management (BLM) has enacted

sources and green energy becomes


mainstream. However, because the
industry depends heavily on
government incentives, political
uncertainty threatens industry
performance, at least in the short-term.
Legislators indecisiveness could hinder
investment in solar technology,
dampening operational efficiency and,
ultimately, limiting more accelerated
revenue growth. Nevertheless, industry
operators will rely less on government
incentives in the latter half of the next
five years as they become more viable
and financially sustainable. As a result,
industry revenue is forecast to rise at an
average annual rate of 7.6% to total
$710.0 million in the five years to 2019.

More

states are expected


to introduce ambitious
renewable energy targets
policies aimed at speeding up the
development of solar energy on public
lands. Since 2010, the BLM has
approved 25 utility-scale solar projects
with a potential to generate 8,000
megawatts of energy (enough to power
2.5 million US households). Recently,
the Secretary of the Interior finalized a
program to facilitate solar-energy
development on public land in six
southwestern states (Arizona,
California, Colorado, Nevada, New
Mexico and Utah). Government-backed
solar expansion will require a larger
labor force going forward; consequently,
in the five years to 2019, industry
employment is expected to increase at
an annualized 6.5% to 667 workers.

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Industry Performance

In favor of PV

In the past, concentrating solar power


(CSP) technology proved more
competitive in large-scale energy
generation than PV panels, which
required high purchasing and installation
costs. Recently, declining semiconductor
input costs and a glut of solar panels in
the world market have driven down the
price of PV panels, encouraging industry
operators to favor PV installations.
Falling silicon prices will continue
allowing operators to pay less for PV
panels over the next five years, lowering
operational costs and boosting profit.
In addition to falling prices, vertical
integration in the Solar Panel
Manufacturing industry (IBISWorld
report 33441c) will reduce prices for
solar-related equipment. The movement
of solar-panel-manufacturing factories to

Favorable market
conditions

Solar-power generators will benefit from


favorable market conditions over the next
five years, buoyed by solid growth in
demand for electricity and an ongoing
focus on green energy. As the US economy
strengthens and growth resumes, overall
electricity consumption will pick up. In
the five years to 2019, electric power
consumption is expected to increase at an
annualized 0.8%, resulting in a moderate
rise in prices. Solar power capacity and
output will likely continue expanding
strongly during the same period and is
poised to meet demand for electricity.
According to CleanTechnica, a leading

countries with lower production and labor


costs will also keep prices for solar
equipment low. As the Solar Panel
Manufacturing industry matures, PV
panels will achieve greater efficiency in
converting solar energy to electricity.
According to the Rocky Mountain
Institute, improving efficiency could make
distributed solar energy financially and
logistically accessible on a large scale.
These trends will exert a downward
pressure on the industrys operational
costs, leading to healthy profit margins.
As profit margins increase, more
operators will enter the industry to take
advantage of solar powers robust growth.
IBISWorld forecasts that the number of
industry operators will increase at an
average annual rate of 5.2% to total 117
companies in the five years to 2019.

Falling

silicon prices will


lower operational costs
and boost profitability for
operators
news source for clean-technology news,
PV solar power is expected to hit grid
parity (which occurs when an alternative
energy source can generate electricity at a
cost that is equal to or less than the retail
rate of grid power) in the United States
between 2014 and 2017.

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 11

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Industry Performance
Industry output is growing much more
rapidly than the economy as a whole

Life Cycle Stage

Solar cell technology is continuing to advance


The industry is home to a substantial
number of small, innovative firms

% Growth in share of economy

Solar Power
20

Maturity

Quality Growth

Company
consolidation;
level of economic
importance stable

High growth in economic


importance; weaker companies
close down; developed
technology and markets

15

Key Features of a Growth Industry


Revenue grows faster than the economy
Many new companies enter the market
Rapid technology & process change
Growing customer acceptance of product
Rapid introduction of products & brands

10

Quantity Growth

Many new companies;


minor growth in economic
importance; substantial
technology change

Aluminum Manufacturing
Steel Framing

Coal & Natural Gas Power

Nuclear Power

Decline

-5

Shrinking economic
importance

-10
-10

-5

10

15

20

% Growth in number of establishments


SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

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Industry Performance

Industry Life Cycle


This

industry
is G
 rowing

Solar power production in the United


States is growing strongly, underpinned
by a combination of favorable
government incentives and technological
advancements. Furthermore, solar power
falls into the emergent green energy
sector and benefits from rising public and
private support. Industry value added,
which measures the industrys
contribution to the overall economy, is
anticipated to increase at an annualized
rate of 30.9% over the 10 years to 2019,
significantly outpacing GDP growth of
2.5% during the same period.
Most states have enacted mandatory
or voluntary targets relating to energy
production from renewable resources.
These targets, which force utilities
companies to diversify their energy
portfolio, have contributed significantly
to industry revenue growth in the past
five years. Public pressure to improve US
energy self-sufficiency and concerns
regarding climate change are also likely
to spur continued growth in solar power
generation into 2019. Strong government
and public support for the emergent
renewable energy market will encourage
the private sector to invest in solar
technology. The new frontier will

encourage entrance, characteristic of a


growing industry: in the 10 years to 2019,
the number of solar power generators is
expected to increase at an annualized
6.1% to 117.
Rapid technological change is keeping
the industry in a growth phase of its life
cycle. New technologies that more
efficiently convert sunlight to electricity
are constantly being introduced. Although
the industry does not actively take part in
manufacturing the technology, industry
operators use this technology to transmit
energy to downstream customers. An
example of such technology is
concentrating solar power (CSP), which
uses mirrors to focus sunlight on a surface
to create electricity; large-scale
deployment of CSP is anticipated to
continue into 2019. The industrys
technological shifts have focused on
reducing initial costs, with the hopes of
mainstreaming solar energy. Photovoltaic
(PV) panels have consistently achieved
greater efficiency in converting sunlight
into usable energy, and manufacturers
worldwide are competing to drive down
the price of these panels. These trends
have lowered the operational costs of
industry operators.

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Products & Markets

Supply Chain | Products & Services | Demand Determinants


Major Markets | International Trade | Business Locations

Supply Chain

KEY BUYING INDUSTRIES


22112

Electric Power Transmission in the US


This industry distributes electricity to end users.

33131

Aluminum Manufacturing in the US


This industry is a major consumer of electricity.

KEY SELLING INDUSTRIES

Products & Services

23812

Steel Framing in the US


This industry assists with the construction of solar power generating facilities.

33441c

Solar Panel Manufacturing in the US


This industry supplies solar cells and panels for solar power generation.

Products and services segmentation (2014)

35%

Concentrating solar power

65%

Photovoltaic power

Total $491.9m
The products and services provided by
the industry depend on the firm and
the location of the project. Different
locations might require different types
of technology, depending on the
amount of sunlight available
(measured as sunlight density).
According to SEAI, in the second
quarter of 2013 (latest available data),
cumulative operating photovoltaic
(PV) installations totaled 8,858
megawatts; according to the US
Department of Energy, operating
concentrating solar power plants
currently generate more than 800
megawatts, with four additional
projects underway.

SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Concentrating solar power


Concentrating solar power (CSP) involves
directing heat from sunlight, often via
large curved dishes, onto a solar cell or
panel. The heat is then converted into
electricity through processes with
different levels of efficiency. For example,
some CSP processes rely on mirrors to
reflect sunlight onto a large tower to
generate heat, which is then turned into
steam to power a turbine-generator. On a
large scale, CSP technology converts
energy from sunlight more efficiently per
kilowatt-hour than photovoltaic devices.
Firms that take advantage of CSP
technology enjoy lower costs over the life
of the project. In addition, CSP is strictly

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Products & Markets

Products & Services


continued

Demand
Determinants

used for utility-scale electricity


production because of the technologys
large scalability. Although CSPs higher
efficiency has attracted industry
operators, photovoltaic power has
outpaced CSP in the past five years, due
largely to the rapid decline of panel prices
and increasing its increasing efficiency.
Photovoltaic power
Photovoltaic (PV) power relies directly on
solar cells to generate electricity from the
suns energy. PV panels are suitable for
individual and commercial use because
they are easily attached to buildings and
offices; however, large scale PV systems
are also capable of generating energy for
use in utilities and industrial activities. In

the past, the relatively high cost of solar


photovoltaic technology and its
dependence on weather conditions have
restricted its use in the United States.
However, the price of silicon has dropped
significantly over the past five years,
decreasing the production cost of solar
panels. Additionally, PV panel
manufacturers are producing panels with
greater energy efficiency. The industry
owes much of its explosive growth to PV,
a trend that is expected to continue in the
following years: the EIA currently
projects that utility-scale solar capacity
will increase by about 40.0% between
year-end 2013 and year-end 2015, with
PV capacity accounting for about 85.0%
of that growth.

Demand for solar power is based on a


variety of different factors including
government legislation and assistance,
interest in green technology, and the price
of solar power. All of these determinants
tend to interact with each other as well.
For example, favorable government
legislation might lower the price of solar
power by providing a tax rate to solar
power generation firms. In the past, this
has occurred at the state level, via
mandates that require states utilities
provide power from renewable energy as a
certain percentage of their total energy
portfolio. Different types of legislation can
influence demand for solar energy.
Public interest in green technology and
renewable energy has increased demand
for solar power. The movement toward a
sustainable energy infrastructure has
encouraged consumers and businesses to
demand and lobby for renewable energy,
such as solar power. Several states have
programs where consumers can buy

green energy from a utility at a premium


price. The extent to which this option is
exercised is very limited; only about 0.5%
of electricity customers have chosen to
purchase power generated from
renewable energy sources, but this is set
to grow over the next five years.
Industry demand is also driven by
price; the lower the price of solar, the
higher the demand for this type of
energy. In the past, solar struggled to
compete with established coal and
natural gas because solar energy
generation proved too costly.
Government legislation was key in
lowering the cost of production and
allowing solar energy generators to
compete with other energy sources.
Furthermore, technological progress in
the industry has decreased the price of
solar per unit of energy generation. As
technology continues to advance and the
production of solar power gains traction,
prices will fall due to economies of scale.

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 15

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Products & Markets

Major Markets

Major market segmentation (2014)

30%

36%

Industrial users

Utilities

34%

Total $491.9m

Commercial sector

The major markets in this industry are


utilities, commercial customers and
industrial customers. Utilities buy solar
energy from solar producers or generate
solar power themselves to retail
electricity to their end customers.
Industrial and commercial consumers
typically generate electricity onsite, or
buy large amounts of energy from a
utility or independent power producer.
Firms in this industry provide
downstream customers with a power
purchasing agreement (PPA), which
enables the firm to provide electricity to
an end user under specific terms. A PPA
is also typically used as a financing
mechanism when the downstream
customer chooses not to pay for the
system outright. In this scenario, the
customer pays the firm for the power
produced. The PPA can be provided to
any downstream customer of electricity,
although it is much more profitable for
industry operators to sign PPAs with
larger customers, such as utilities.
Utilities
Some of the largest solar projects sell
generated power to utilities firms. Many
states have renewable portfolio standards
(RPS) that require utilities within that
state to sell renewable energy as a

SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

segment of their energy portfolio. As a


result, solar power generators are
increasingly relying on utilities and other
power producers for revenue. These
customers tend to buy large amounts of
energy, given the renewable energy
mandates set by state governments, and
enter secure commercial contracts. This
segment has been growing over the past
five years, as utilities seek to meet RPS
goals and public support for renewable
energy strengthens. Also, it is often more
cost-effective to sell solar energy to
utilities because of the large size of the
project, allowing solar power generators
to achieve economies of scale: the greater
the production scope, the lower the
marginal cost of the solar power plant.
Commercial
Many commercial entities have been
interested in supplying solar energy to
facilities. For example, Walmart has
made it a priority to power their stores
with solar energy. Firms that sell
energy to commercial users often sign
a PPA with solar power generators.
This segment has increased over the
past five years, as more businesses
push to become greener in efforts to
market to a consumer public interested
in sustainability.

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 16

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Products & Markets

Major Markets
continued

Industrial users
Industrial users enjoy lower prices than
households and, to a lesser extent,
commercial users of electricity. In part, this
reflects large-scale purchase of power by
industrial users. These users typically use

other types of generation in addition to


solar power. Because industrial production
typically require large amounts of energy,
the high price of solar relative to other
types of energy sources has deterred many
industrial users over the past five years.

International Trade

This industry is not engaged in


international trade, as the generation of
solar energy occurs within US borders.
Upstream suppliers of solar panels do
import and export products, but this

activity is not accounted for in this


industry. For more information on solar
panel production, please refer to the
Solar Panel Manufacturing industry
(IBISWorld report 33441c).

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 17

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Products & Markets


Business Locations 2014

West
New
England

AK
0.0

Great
Lakes
WA

ND

MT

0.3

Rocky
Mountains
ID

OR
0.8

West NV
5.9

0.1

SD
0.0

WY

0.0

MN

0.0

0.0

Plains

CO

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

KY

67.1

OK
0.0

AZ

NM

2.9

0.1

Southwest
TX
0.5

HI
1.6

Additional States (as marked on map)


1 VT

2 NH

3 MA

4 RI

5 CT

6 NJ

7 DE

8 MD

0.1
1.2

0.0

7.6

1.0

0.2

NC
0.7

SC

Southeast
MS

AL
0.0

0.0

GA
0.0

0.0

LA
0.0

FL
2.3

Solar power capacity (%)

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

TN

AR

WV VA
0.0

0.1

CA

West

OH

0.0

MO

KS

3.5

0.0

0.3

0.4

IN

IL

0.0

UT

PA

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 2
3
NY
2.0
5 4

MI

0.3

IA

NE

0.0

WI

ME

MidAtlantic

9 DC
0.1

Less than 3%
3% to less than 10%
10% to less than 20%
20% or more
SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 18

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Products & Markets

Distribution of solar power capacity vs.


population
80
60
40
20

Southwest

Southeast

Rocky Mountains

Plains

New England

Mid-Atlantic

Great Lakes

0
West

Favorable state legislation with regard to


renewable energy and sunlight
availability typically determine business
locations in the Solar Power industry.
Furthermore, the availability of land in a
certain area is also a factor, as solar
plants can require large physical spaces.
Higher abundance of land can encourage
firms to locate in those regions.
More than three-quarters of US solar
power capacity is located in the West.
California accounts for about 67.4% of
capacity, leading in terms of both
photovoltaic capacity and thermal solar
capacity. Not only does the state have
favorable landscape and climate for solar
power generation, but the states
government has been a long-term
supporter of solar power. Nevada (also
located in the West) accounts for nearly
6.0% of solar capacity, also due to a
favorable climate and adequate land.
The next major solar powerproducing region, although at a distant
second to the West, is the Mid-Atlantic,
particularly New Jersey. All solar power
generation in this region comes from
photovoltaic panels. Other regions
account for only small shares of solar
power capacity, although some
individual states are significant.

Business Locations

Solar power capacity


Population
SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Colorado (Rocky Mountains) and


Arizona (Southwest) are home to 3.5%
and nearly 3.0% of US solar capacity,
respectively, mainly in the form of
photovoltaic power. Florida (Southeast)
has about 2.3% of capacity and is home
to the largest photovoltaic power facility
in the United States, the DeSoto Next
Generation Solar Energy Center, which
has a capacity of 25 megawatts.

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the US December 2014

19

Competitive Landscape

Market Share Concentration | Key Success Factors | Cost Structure Benchmarks


Basis of Competition | Barriers to Entry | Industry Globalization
Market Share
Concentration
Level
Concentration

in
this industry is L ow

Key Success Factors


IBISWorld

identifies
250 Key Success
Factors for a
business. The most
important for this
industry are:

Cost Structure
Benchmarks

The Solar Power industry has a low level


of concentration. The four largest
industry participants hold a combined
market share of 22.5% in 2014. There is
currently only one major player, NextEra
Energy Inc., with a market share of
12.0%, but this will likely change in the
near future. In a climate of high growth,
companies are more willing to expand
their operations to gain market share,
and many companies are finalizing solar
projects that will increase their solargenerating capacity. However, industry
concentration remains low because of the

lack of economies of scope in the


industry. While individual solar power
facilities are getting larger, there
appears to be little movement toward
owning facilities across many areas.
Over the five years to 2014, market share
concentration has increased, albeit
marginally, as many players enter the
industry to benefit from the growing
opportunities and existing operators
scale their solar energy production.
Market share concentration is expected
to continue to increase in the five years
to 2019.

Ability to pass on cost increases


Generators must cover their cashoperating costs and also substantial
capital charges.

Access to financing
Firms in this industry that have access to
financing will fare better than others
because of the large capital cost for solar
generation technologies.

Optimum capacity utilization


Higher capacity utilization is generally
associated with lower unit costs.
Superior financial management
and debt management
Borrowing and interest rates have a major
impact on an operations profitability.

Ability to negotiate contracts


with downstream customers
Industry firms must be competent at
dealing with a range of contractual issues
regarding the power purchase agreement
(PPA) and be able to secure profit with
proper contracts.

The Solar Power industrys cost


structure depends on the size of the
firm and the type of solar technology
used. Larger solar power generators
typically have higher profit margins due
to their ability to leverage scale, while
smaller operators incur high initial
investments, and therefore higher
operational costs. Photovoltaic
technology is typically used for smallerscale production, although the rapid
decline of panel prices have encouraged
their use in large-scale utility
operations as well. Concentrating solar
power (CSP) is used on larger utility-

scale projects and can results in


cheaper electricity per unit.
The payment for energy ultimately
depends on the PPA signed by both the
firm and the customer. The PPA locks in
the rate that the customer pays for the
solar electricity generated. The rate
under the PPA contract might not be as
profitable as another PPA signed by a
competing firm. The cost structure
below represents a typical firm using
photovoltaic technology, as the vast
majority of the firms in this industry use
photovoltaic technology to generate
solar power.

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the US December 2014

20

Competitive Landscape

Profit
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT)
are high in this industry, accounting for
about 17.0% of industry revenue in 2014.
Profit margin is generally a critical factor
when industry operators consider the
viability of a potential project. If the
project is risky or could prove to be
unprofitable, then it is usually not
executed. Strong government incentives
in the form of tax breaks and grants,
along with declining silicon input costs
and greater operational efficiency, have
led to significant profit margin growth
among industry operators. Although the
emergent industry remains risky,
renewable energy sources such as solar
have accumulated strong public support,
and investors are flocking to support
companies in solar generation and solar
technology. As a result, industry profit
has grown since 2009, when margins
accounted for about 11.5% of revenue.

Depreciation
As a capital-intensive emerging
industry, solar power generators
report substantial depreciation, which
is expected to represent 29.0% of
industry revenue in 2014. A large
outlay of capital is required for solar
power infrastructure and the selling of
power to a customer. Solar power
generation firms purchase the
technology used in the project as an
upfront cost. Often, the viability of a
project is dependent on the cost of the
technology and whether the customer
will buy enough of the energy to make
it a profitable venture in the long run.
Due decreasing solar panel costs,
buoyed by falling semiconductor
prices, and investment in research and
development, depreciation as a share
of revenue has decreased from 2009,
when it accounted for 39.0% of
industry revenue.

Sector vs. Industry Costs


Average Costs of
all Industries in
sector (2014)

Industry Costs
(2014)

100

80

Percentage of revenue

Cost Structure
Benchmarks
continued

20.1

17.0

9.2

13.2

Profit
Wages
Purchases
Depreciation
Marketing
Rent & Utilities
Other

19.3

60

45.9
40

20

29.0
8.0
4.7
11.5

0.6

2.3

2.0

17.2
SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the US December 2014

21

Competitive Landscape

Cost Structure
Benchmarks
continued

Wages
Salaries and wages absorb a substantial
share of industry revenue, reflecting the
industrys growth phase. Accounting for
about 13.2% of industry revenue in 2014,
these costs have decreased over the past
five years, due mainly to the explosive
revenue growth that has outpaced wage
increases. Although wages as a share of
revenue has decreased since 2009,
they remain a significant segment of
the industrys cost structure, as a
highly skilled labor force is required in
solar power generation. Wages as a
share of revenue is expected to
decrease slightly in the next five years,
as the industry approaches maturity
and the steady flow of new workers
standardizes wage costs.

Purchases
Representing 19.3% of industry revenue in
2014, general purchases relate to services
such as maintenance and items such as
spare parts; other expenses include
administrative and transport costs. These
costs have grown over the past five years
because firms have been aggressively
campaigning to gain customers.
Furthermore, because many industry
operators moved to the United States from
Europe, where solar markets are more
established, they need to purchase a wide
variety of materials to resume operation.
These costs do not fall under the category of
depreciation and include set-up costs once a
project is underway. These costs are set to
increase in the five years to 2019, as firms
continue to enter the industry from abroad.

Basis of Competition

Firms generating solar power not only


compete for sales, but also against
traditional power plant generators, such
as natural gas, fossil fuels and nuclear
power. Additionally, solar power operators
must also compete against other green
technology, including hydroelectricity and
wind power. Consumer and business
preferences are a major component of
demand, but so are costs, as traditional
power generation is much cheaper than
solar power and other green technology.
As a result, the industry must compete for
government subsidies and other
incentives designed to lower the cost of
solar power production.
Electric-power generators compete on
price, but the different types of capacity
(base load, intermediate and peak load)
have different cost structures that dictate
price levels. On average, a base-load plant
has the lowest cost structure. Competition
between electricity producers using
different fuel sources is blurred by the fact
that some producers generate electric
power using a range of plant types. Such

diversification provides a means of


reducing reliance on a particular type of
plant, thereby reducing risk.
Solar power typically provides
intermediate power, which can be
switched on or off to meet seasonal
fluctuations in demand. The energy
source itself is also somewhat erratic,
depending on the climatic conditions and
the seasons. As such, the main
competitors in this sector of the
electricity market are technologies that
are switched on and off to meet demand.
These technologies include wind farms
and power stations fuelled by natural gas
and oil that can be powered up or
powered down fairly readily. These types
of electricity-generation technologies
serve the same purpose for electricitygeneration firms: they provide power
when needed. Because they serve the
same function, these technologies
compete on price as electricity generation
firms seek the most inexpensive
technology to produce power. Coal-fired
and nuclear power stations, which

Level & Trend


 ompetition
C

in
this industry is
Mediumand the
trend is I ncreasing

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the US December 2014

22

Competitive Landscape

Basis of Competition
continued

operate around the clock and in all


seasons to base-load power, provide only
limited competition to solar power.
Solar electricity producers also
compete with other energy sources,
such as gas. This competition is
particularly marked in applications
such as space heating and water
heating. Factors such as the availability
of natural gas via a reticulated system
and the relative prices of electricity and

Barriers to Entry

The Solar Power industry is capital


intensive: high capital costs are incurred
to set up the necessary solar
infrastructure before power generation
can commence. As such, new entrants
need to secure a significant amount of
capital and investments to enter into the
industry. The industry does benefit from
growing concern over greenhouse gas
emissions associated with fossil fuel-fired
power plants, and strong public support
has produced tax incentives o mitigate
the large initial costs. However,
production costs for solar power remains
higher than those associated with fossil
fuels like coal.
Finding firms and experts who have
extensive knowledge of the industry is
a barrier to entry. Most industry
participants have experience
developing solar projects abroad,
where favorable government legislation
has led to dramatic increases in solar
output. New US firms that lack the

Level & Trend


 arriers to Entry
B

in this industry
are H
 ighand
Decreasing

gas tend to determine the type of


energy chosen.
Weather and climate are a basis of
competition for solar producers. If an
area does not have as much sunlight,
the amount of energy created by the
solar technology might not be enough
to warrant the project. As a result, firms
tend to locate in regions with
significant sunlight and favorable
weather conditions.

Barriers to Entry checklist


Competition
Concentration
Life Cycle Stage
Capital Intensity
Technology Change
Regulation & Policy
Industry Assistance

Level
Medium
Low
Growth
High
Medium
Heavy
High
SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

expertise of firms from overseas will


have a hard time navigating how to
start a firm in this industry.
The relative remoteness of solar power
facilities from major demand centers also
acts as a barrier to entry. Buying and
leasing land in remote areas is a high risk
for firms that have not generated solar
power before. Additionally, transmission
costs might be too high for a firm to
undertake the initial capital spending
associated with the solar project.

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the US December 2014

23

Competitive Landscape

Industry
Globalization
Level & Trend
 lobalization
G

in
this industry is
Mediumand the
trend is S
 teady

The Solar Power industry has a medium


level of globalization. The majority of
industry participants are also based in
other countries, where favorable legislation
for renewable energy created a boom for
solar energy. Spain and Germany are two
notable examples of countries where solar
power firms have flourished. These firms
have brought or are bringing their expertise
to the US in pursuit of a growing solar
energy market. However, new firms that

are entering the industry tend to be


US-based, which has only marginally
counteracted the trend of overseas
companies dominating the industry
landscape. The net effect over the past five
years has been that foreign firms still
command a strong hand in this industry.
Over the next five years, this dominance is
set to change as US firms increasingly seek
to enter the industry. US producers do not
trade solar energy internationally.

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 24

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Major Companies
NextEra Energy Inc. | Other Companies

Major players
(Market share)

88.0%
Other

NextEra Energy Inc. 12.0%

Player Performance
NextEra Energy Inc.
Market share: 12.0%

SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

NextEra Energy Inc. is a leading cleanenergy company headquartered in Juno


Beach, FL. The green-energy giant has
nearly 42,500 megawatts of electricitygenerating capacity and employs more
than 13,900 people in 26 states and four
Canadian provinces. NextEras main
subsidiaries are NextEra Energy
Resources, one of the largest solar-energy
generators in North America, and Florida
Power & Light Company (FPL), an
electricity utility firm. NextEras most
significant source of renewable energy is
wind, and the company currently owns
and operates about 17.0% of the installed
base of US wind-power-production
capacity. However, the company plans to
ramp up production of solar-power
generation over the next five years, as the
prevailing low price of silicon decreases
production costs. In 2013, NextEra
generated $15.1 billion in total revenue.
NextEra has 477 megawatts of solarpower-generating capacity as of

December 2013, most of which is


operated by its subsidiary, NextEra
Energy Resources. The company co-owns
and operates seven solar plants in
Californias Mojave Desert; collectively,
these comprise one of the worlds largest
solar sites. In October 2009, NextEra
commissioned the 25-megawatt DeSoto
Next Generation Solar Energy Center,
one of the largest solar photovoltaic
power plants in the United States during
the time. In April 2010, FPL
commissioned its Space Coast Next
Generation Solar Energy Center, a
10-megawatt solar photovoltaic facility at
NASAs Kennedy Space Center. FPLs
Martin Next Generation Solar Energy
Center, the worlds first hybrid solarthermal facility to connect to an existing
fossil fuel plant, was completed in late
2010. This project is producing about
75.0 megawatts of solar power.
In June 2012, NextEra acquired the
Blythe project, a 1,000-megawatt solar

NextEra Energy Resources (US solar segment) financial performance*


Year

Revenue
($ million)

(% change)

Net Income
($ million)

(% change)

2009

4.7

N/C

0.8

N/C

2010

7.7

63.8

1.6

100.0

2011

9.2

19.5

2.0

25.0

2012

17.1

85.9

3.9

95.0

2013

35.3

106.4

8.5

117.9

2014

59.0

67.1

13.6

60.0

*Estimates

SOURCE: ANNUAL REPORT AND IBISWORLD

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 25

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Major Companies

Player Performance
continued

project located in Riverside County, CA.


In 2013, the company revised the plan by
shrinking the project by more than half of
its initial target and swapped the design
from concentrated solar thermal to PV
technology due to the sliding prices of
panels. Throughout 2013, NextEra added
125 megawatts of capacity to the Genesis
solar-thermal project and 550 megawatts
of capacity to the Desert Sunlight solar
PV project in California. In October 2013,
First Solar Inc. announced that it entered
into an agreement with NextEra to
construct a 250-megawatt solar power
plant in southern California. The project,
named the McCoy Solar Energy Project,
is set to commence construction in late
2014. These expansions will secure
NextEras position in the Solar Power
industry in the next five years.
Financial performance
NextEra Energy Resources industryrelevant data is estimated, as the
company does not release revenue figures
generated specifically from solar-energy
operations. Only a small portion of
NextEra Energy Resources revenue and
profit can be attributed to solar-power

Other Companies

The other companies in this industry


produce revenue from solar-power
generation by selling it directly to
utilities, wholesale electricity providers
and retail electricity users. Various
entities, including utility companies and
government agencies, have approved
funding for new solar power plants. Once
these systems become fully operational,
new prominent players will likely emerge.
The other players below have significant
projects being built and are likely to
become major players once the projects
are completed.

generation; solar power accounts for less


than 1.0% of the electricity generated by
the business. Nevertheless, solar power is
a priority for the company and it has
secured the rights for large projects in
solar-friendly states such as California.
In the five years to 2014, NextEras
solar-power-generation revenue is
expected to increase at an annualized
65.9% to $59.0 million, including growth
of 67.1% in 2014 alone. NextEra entered
the Solar Power industry in 2009, and
has since secured its position as the
industrys top player. The high revenue
growth during the past five years is in line
with the industry as a whole, which is
currently in the growth phase of its life
cycle. During the past five years, tax
credits and government grants
encouraged the expansion of the
companys solar projects, particularly in
California. In addition to government
assistance, declining silicon prices led to
a drop in the purchasing cost of PV
panels. This allowed for solid profit gains;
in the five years to 2014, industryrelevant profit is estimated to have
increased at an annualized 76.2% to
$13.6 million.

Sempra Energy
Estimated market share: 4.9%

Sempra Energy, based in San Diego, CA,


is an energy-services company with more
than 17,000 employees worldwide. It
provides a wide spectrum of value-added
electric and natural-gas products and
services to a diverse range of customers,
operating in both regulated and
unregulated energy markets. Sempra
Generation (SG) is the most relevant
business segment for this industry. SG
develops, owns and operates natural-gas
power plants, wind farms and solar-

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 26

WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Major Companies

Other Companies
continued

energy facilities. It currently owns and


operates solar facilities with more than
565 megawatts of solar energy, including
the Copper Mountain Solar 1, Copper
Mountain Solar 2 and the Mesquite Solar
1 plants. In December 2011, the
California Public Utilities Commission
approved Pacific Gas and Electric
Companys 25-year contract to purchase
150 megawatts of renewable power from
SGs Copper Mountain Solar 2 project in
Boulder City, NV. The first 92 megawatts
of solar panels at Copper Mountain Solar
2 were installed in late 2012 (in the
process of obtaining Eligible Renewable
Energy Resource certification), with the
remaining 58 megawatts slated for
completion by 2015. Solar energy
represents 6.7% of SGs total generation
capacity. In 2014, Sempra Energy is
expected to generate $24.1 million in
industry-relevant revenue.

SunEdison Inc.
Estimated market share: 3.3%

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc., a


US-based solar wafer manufacturer,
acquired SunEdison Inc. in 2009,
signaling the companys entry into the
solar-power-generation industry.
SunEdison is headquartered in Belmont,
CA and operates solar projects in North

America and Asia, with plans to expand


into South America and Africa. In the
United States, SunEdison has completed
16 projects in Texas, Nevada, Arizona,
California, Delaware and North Carolina.
Additionally, SunEdison operates in
solar-electricity generation through
solar-power service agreements in
Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey,
California, Ohio and Colorado. In 2014,
SunEdison is expected to generate $16.2
million in industry-relevant revenue.

Iberdrola Renewables LLC


Estimated market share: 2.3%

Iberdrola Renewables (IR) is a renewable


energy owner and operator, and is
currently generating power from about
40 renewable energy projects. IR is a
member of a group of companies headed
by Iberdrola SA, the companys largest
shareholder. Iberdrola SA is based in
Spain and employs more than 33,000
people. IR currently operates about 50
megawatts of solar energy in the United
States, primarily located in the southwest
region. IRs renewable portfolio is highly
concentrated in wind power, making it a
strong competitor in the Wind Power
industry (IBISWorld report 22111d). In
2014, IR is projected to generate $11.3
million in industry-relevant revenue.

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 27

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Operating Conditions

Capital Intensity | Technology & Systems | Revenue Volatility


Regulation & Policy | Industry Assistance
Capital Intensity
Level
The level

of capital
intensity is H
 igh

Solar power generation is a capitalintensive process and the efficiency with


which capital is employed has a major
influence on the cost of energy generation.
As such, initial as well as ongoing capital
costs tend to be high among industry
operators. For every dollar spent on
wages, solar power generators are
expected to spend about $2.19 on capital
instruments. The industrys generating
facilities, concentrating solar plants and
photovoltaic cells, have a long economic
life, although high initial investments are
required. Because of this, depreciation as
a share of revenue has consistently been
high in this industry, and currently makes
up the largest segment of the industrys
cost structure. Nevertheless, labor
continues to be an important factor for

Capital intensity

Capital units per labor unit


3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Economy

Utilities

Solar Power

Dotted line shows a high level of capital intensity


SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

solar energy generators: in 2014, wages


are expected to account for 13.2% of
industry revenue.

Tools of the Trade: Growth Strategies for Success


Solar Power
Investment Economy

Recreation, Personal Services,


Health and Education. Firms
benefit from personal wealth so
stable macroeconomic conditions
are imperative. Brand awareness
and niche labor skills are key to
product differentiation.

Information, Communications,
Mining, Finance and Real
Estate. To increase revenue
firms need superior debt
management, a stable
macroeconomic environment
and a sound investment plan.

Traditional Service Economy


Wholesale and Retail. Reliant
on labor rather than capital to
sell goods. Functions cannot
be outsourced therefore firms
must use new technology
or improve staff training to
increase revenue growth.

Steel Framing
Aluminum Manufacturing

Coal & Natural Gas Power


Nuclear Power

Solar Panel Manufacturing


Change in Share of the Economy

Capital Intensive

Labor Intensive

New Age Economy

Old Economy
Agriculture and Manufacturing.
Traded goods can be produced
using cheap labor abroad.
To expand firms must merge
or acquire others to exploit
economies of scale, or specialize
in niche, high-value products.
SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 28

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Operating Conditions

Level
The level

of
Technology Change
is M
 edium

Revenue Volatility
Level
The level

of
Volatility is
Very High

Most technological progress in this


industry comes from solar-panel
manufacturers, and the industry is
working to make them more cost
competitive with other types of energygenerating technology. The solargeneration firm chooses the appropriate
technology for the project, which could
range from PV panels to concentrating
solar power technology. Firms in this
industry are able to use technology that
converts sunlight into energy more
effectively, thereby reducing the cost of
generating energy.
Technological change in this industry
can be measured by the efficiency with
regard to turning sunshine into energy.
Concentrating solar power (CSP) devices
use direct heat from the sun,
concentrating it (often in large curved
dishes) to produce heat at useful
temperatures. This technology has

progressed significantly over the past five


years, but is currently being outpaced by
increasingly lower-priced PV panels.
Firms have been using different ways to
concentrate solar power on a surface to
create heat and eventually electricity.
New methods have paved the way for
higher conversion efficiencies.
Photovoltaic devices use semi-conducting
materials to convert sunlight directly into
electricity. Additionally, silicon wafers is
a newer technology and accounts for
almost half the cost of todays solar
photovoltaic (PV) panels.
Other technological upgrades were
implemented by Abengoa Solar; these
advances include superheated solar
towers and parabolic trough
technologies. Both additions allow the
company to increasing the efficiency of
converting solar energy into electricity
and consequently bring down its costs.

The Solar Power industry has a very high


level of revenue volatility. Although the
market for electricity is relatively stable,
the installation of solar-generating
capacity is expanding strongly. Favorable
government incentives are pushing
growth rates up significantly. Since

certain government incentives expire and


only provide a subsidy for a specified
amount of time, revenue jumps will occur in
response. Also, a drop in silicon prices has
substantially aided the increase in solar
project completions as many firms were able
to put their products out at lower costs.

A higher level of revenue


volatility implies greater
industry risk. Volatility can
negatively affect long-term
strategic decisions, such as
the time frame for capital
investment.
When a firm makes poor
investment decisions it
may face underutilized
capacity if demand
suddenly falls, or capacity
constraints if it rises
quickly.

Volatility vs Growth
1000

Revenue volatility* (%)

Technology
& Systems

Hazardous

Rollercoaster

100

Solar Power

10
1
0.1

Stagnant
30

10

Blue Chip
10

30

50

70

Five year annualized revenue growth (%)


* Axis is in logarithmic scale
SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 29

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Operating Conditions

Revenue Volatility
continued

Furthermore, the prices of other types


of energy-generating commodities
influence industry revenue. The higher
the volatility of these commodities, the

more likely electricity-generation firms


will use solar power. As a result, revenue
volatility can occur from fluctuations of
other energy generating technologies.

Regulation & Policy

Increasing levels of regulation and policy


are generally beneficial for the Solar
Power industry. More than 30 US states
and territories have renewable electricity
standards (also called renewable
portfolio standards or RPS) that require
electric providers to gradually increase
the amount of renewable, typically
non-hydroelectric energy sources in their
power supplies. Target levels for
renewable energy vary from 7.5% in
Florida to 40.0% in Hawaii, but most
commonly are about 20.0%.
For example, Washingtons clean
energy initiative requires electricity
providers to generate 10.0% of their
power from renewable energy sources
by 2020. In February 2007, Minnesota
lifted its existing renewable
requirements for its largest electricity
generator in the state, Xcel Energy,
from 19.0% by 2015 to 30.0% by 2020,
and placed a 25.0% by 2025
requirement on all other electricity
providers. Several other states,
including Arizona, California, Nevada,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

New Mexico and Colorado have also


increased or accelerated their
standards. Eighteen of the states with
renewable electricity standards have a
solar or distributed generation carveout and five provide extra credits for
solar or distributed generation.
Most states with RPS programs have
associated renewable energy certificate
(REC) trading programs. RECs provide a
mechanism to track the amount of
renewable power being sold and to
reward eligible power producers. Energy
supply companies are required to redeem
RECs equal to their obligation under the
RPS program. A credit is issued for each
unit of renewable power produced and
can be sold to energy supply companies,
either in conjunction with the underlying
power or separately. Depending on the
program, RECs can be banked (for use in
future years) or borrowed (to meet
current year commitments). There is a
great deal of variety among the states in
the handling and functioning of RECs.
The various proposals for a federal RPS
program have not come to fruition.

Level & Trend


 he level of
T

Regulation is
Heavyand the
trend is S
 teady

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 30

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Operating Conditions

Industry Assistance
Level & Trend
 he level of Industry
T

Assistance is H
 igh
and the trend
is I ncreasing

The Solar Power industry is not protected


by either tariffs or non-tariff barriers.
However, it does receive considerable
industry assistance. The American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
provided funding for energy efficiency
and renewable energy programs,
including $8.5 billion to subsidize loans
for renewable energy projects, $2.0
billion for advanced battery systems and
$13.0 billion in tax credits for renewable
energy production.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005 also
provides some incentives for electricity
from renewable sources. Section 206 of
the act established a rebate program for
renewable energy. The installation of
renewable energy systems in dwellings or
small businesses attracts a 25.0% rebate
of spending on qualifying equipment, or
$3,000, whichever is less. According to
the legislation, renewable energy sources
include energy derived from solar,
geothermal, biomass and wind for nonbusiness residential purposes, as well as
any other form of renewable energy that
the Secretary of Energy specifies by
regulation for the purpose of heating or
cooling a dwelling or providing hot water
or electricity for use within a dwelling.
Annual funding for this program
authorized in the Act started at $150.0
million for fiscal year 2006 and ended
with $250.0 million for fiscal year 2010.
ITC
The federal government provides
investment tax credits (ITC) for

renewable energy. This credit is


available for eligible renewable energy
put in service before December 31, 2016.
Solar is included among the renewable
energy technologies covered in the tax
credit and receives a 30.0% tax credit.
The ARRA has amended the ITC to allow
industry operators to receive a grant
equal to the tax credit if the construction
solar plant started in 2009 or 2010.
Cash grants are more attractive because
these would cut down the cost of
investment directly before the project
has started. As a result, the risk of the
project is lessened.
Renewable energy production incentive
Designed to complement the production
tax credit (PTC), which is available for
other technologies besides solar, this
incentive provides a production credit
equal to a 10-year, 1.5-cents per kilowatthour inflation-adjusted production for
solar projects. It also provides the credit
for other entities besides those that pay
corporation tax, as required by the PTC.
However, the incentive is subject to the
availability of funds in the program. If
the funds run out during a certain year,
then the production credit must be
addressed the next year.
Several states provide incentives for
renewable energy technologies. For
example, the California Public Utilities
Commission and the Wisconsin Public
Service Commission have consistently
developed state energy plans that favor
the use of renewables.

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 31

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Key Statistics
Industry Data
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sector Rank
Economy Rank

Revenue
($m)
19.3
19.0
22.8
33.7
34.6
46.4
68.7
160.7
258.5
491.9
586.2
638.0
672.7
696.0
710.0
10/10
1248/1324

Annual Change
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sector Rank
Economy Rank

Revenue
(%)
-1.6
20.0
47.8
2.7
34.1
48.1
133.9
60.9
90.3
19.2
8.8
5.4
3.5
2.0
1/10
2/1324

Key Ratios
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sector Rank
Economy Rank

IVA/Revenue
(%)
89.12
91.05
91.67
83.98
84.68
75.22
77.73
64.47
63.95
59.22
54.86
63.12
60.50
61.03
61.06
2/10
132/1324

Industry
Value Added Establish($m)
ments
17.2
53
17.3
57
20.9
60
28.3
63
29.3
67
34.9
70
53.4
73
103.6
80
165.3
87
291.3
95
321.6
101
402.7
107
407.0
116
424.8
122
433.5
126
10/10
10/10
1166/1324 1187/1323

Wages
Enterprises Employment Exports Imports
($m)
51
100
--7.3
55
120
--7.5
58
140
--9.4
61
190
--11.6
65
250
--11.9
68
295
--12.5
71
340
--19.6
78
385
--35.0
85
420
--50.0
91
486
--65.0
98
532
--73.7
105
560
--78.7
111
587
--83.0
115
629
--88.7
117
667
--93.5
8/10
10/10
N/A
N/A
10/10
1144/1323 1313/1324
N/A
N/A 1270/1324

Industry
Value Added
(%)
0.6
20.8
35.4
3.5
19.1
53.0
94.0
59.6
76.2
10.4
25.2
1.1
4.4
2.0
1/10
4/1324

Enterprises Employment
(%)
(%)
7.8
20.0
5.5
16.7
5.2
35.7
6.6
31.6
4.6
18.0
4.4
15.3
9.9
13.2
9.0
9.1
7.1
15.7
7.7
9.5
7.1
5.3
5.7
4.8
3.6
7.2
1.7
6.0
1/10
1/10
77/1323
25/1324

Establishments
(%)
7.5
5.3
5.0
6.3
4.5
4.3
9.6
8.8
9.2
6.3
5.9
8.4
5.2
3.3
1/10
50/1323

Imports/
Demand
(%)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Figures are inflation-adjusted 2014 dollars. Rank refers to 2014 data.

Exports/
Revenue
(%)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Revenue per
Employee
($000)
193.00
158.33
162.86
177.37
138.40
157.29
202.06
417.40
615.48
1,012.14
1,101.88
1,139.29
1,146.00
1,106.52
1,064.47
5/10
115/1324

Exports
(%)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Wages/Revenue
(%)
37.82
39.47
41.23
34.42
34.39
26.94
28.53
21.78
19.34
13.21
12.57
12.34
12.34
12.74
13.17
5/10
892/1324

Imports
(%)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Employees
per Est.
1.89
2.11
2.33
3.02
3.73
4.21
4.66
4.81
4.83
5.12
5.27
5.23
5.06
5.16
5.29
9/10
967/1323

Domestic
Demand
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Wages
(%)
2.7
25.3
23.4
2.6
5.0
56.8
78.6
42.9
30.0
13.4
6.8
5.5
6.9
5.4
1/10
9/1324

Electric Power
Consumption
(Billion kilowatt hours)
3,811.0
3,817.0
3,890.0
3,865.0
3,724.0
3,886.0
3,883.0
3,823.0
3,845.0
3,904.0
3,951.0
4,001.0
4,047.0
4,101.0
4,152.3
N/A
N/A

Domestic
Demand
(%)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A

Average Wage
($)
73,000.00
62,500.00
67,142.86
61,052.63
47,600.00
42,372.88
57,647.06
90,909.09
119,047.62
133,744.86
138,533.83
140,535.71
141,396.93
141,017.49
140,179.91
1/10
33/1324

Electric Power
Consumption
(%)
0.2
1.9
-0.6
-3.6
4.4
-0.1
-1.5
0.6
1.5
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.3
1.3
N/A
N/A

Share of the
Economy
(%)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
10/10
1166/1324

SOURCE: WWW.IBISWORLD.COM

Solar Power in the USDecember 2014 32

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Jargon & Glossary

Industry Jargon

IBISWorld Glossary

CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP)A technology that


uses mirrors to focus sunlight on a surface to create energy.

PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLA specialized semiconductor


diode that converts sunlight into electricity.

INTERMEDIATE POWERElectricity from sources that


can be switched on or off to meet seasonal demand.

RENEWABLESAll types of renewable energy.

BARRIERS TO ENTRYHigh barriers to entry mean that


new companies struggle to enter an industry, while low
barriers mean it is easy for new companies to enter an
industry.

INDUSTRY REVENUEThe total sales of industry goods


and services (exclusive of excise and sales tax); subsidies
on production; all other operating income from outside
the firm (such as commission income, repair and service
income, and rent, leasing and hiring income); and
capital work done by rental or lease. Receipts from
interest royalties, dividends and the sale of fixed
tangible assets are excluded.

CAPITAL INTENSITYCompares the amount of money


spent on capital (plant, machinery and equipment) with
that spent on labor. IBISWorld uses the ratio of
depreciation to wages as a proxy for capital intensity.
High capital intensity is more than $0.333 of capital to
$1 of labor; medium is $0.125 to $0.333 of capital to $1
of labor; low is less than $0.125 of capital for every $1 of
labor.
CONSTANT PRICESThe dollar figures in the Key
Statistics table, including forecasts, are adjusted for
inflation using the current year (i.e. year published) as
the base year. This removes the impact of changes in
the purchasing power of the dollar, leaving only the
real growth or decline in industry metrics. The inflation
adjustments in IBISWorlds reports are made using the
US Bureau of Economic Analysis implicit GDP price
deflator.

INDUSTRY VALUE ADDED (IVA)The market value of


goods and services produced by the industry minus the
cost of goods and services used in production. IVA is
also described as the industrys contribution to GDP, or
profit plus wages and depreciation.
INTERNATIONAL TRADEThe level of international
trade is determined by ratios of exports to revenue and
imports to domestic demand. For exports/revenue: low is
less than 5%, medium is 5% to 20%, and high is more
than 20%. Imports/domestic demand: low is less than
5%, medium is 5% to 35%, and high is more than
35%.

EMPLOYMENTThe number of permanent, part-time,


temporary and seasonal employees, working proprietors,
partners, managers and executives within the industry.

LIFE CYCLEAll industries go through periods of growth,


maturity and decline. IBISWorld determines an
industrys life cycle by considering its growth rate
(measured by IVA) compared with GDP; the growth rate
of the number of establishments; the amount of change
the industrys products are undergoing; the rate of
technological change; and the level of customer
acceptance of industry products and services.

ENTERPRISEA division that is separately managed and


keeps management accounts. Each enterprise consists
of one or more establishments that are under common
ownership or control.

NONEMPLOYING ESTABLISHMENTBusinesses with


no paid employment or payroll, also known as
nonemployers. These are mostly set up by self-employed
individuals.

ESTABLISHMENTThe smallest type of accounting unit


within an enterprise, an establishment is a single
physical location where business is conducted or where
services or industrial operations are performed. Multiple
establishments under common control make up an
enterprise.

PROFITIBISWorld uses earnings before interest and tax


(EBIT) as an indicator of a companys profitability. It is
calculated as revenue minus expenses, excluding
interest and tax.

DOMESTIC DEMANDSpending on industry goods and


services within the United States, regardless of their
country of origin. It is derived by adding imports to
industry revenue, and then subtracting exports.

EXPORTSTotal value of industry goods and services sold


by US companies to customers abroad.
IMPORTSTotal value of industry goods and services
brought in from foreign countries to be sold in the
United States.
INDUSTRY CONCENTRATIONAn indicator of the
dominance of the top four players in an industry.
Concentration is considered high if the top players
account for more than 70% of industry revenue.
Medium is 40% to 70% of industry revenue. Low is less
than 40%.

VOLATILITYThe level of volatility is determined by


averaging the absolute change in revenue in each of the
past five years. Volatility levels: very high is more than
20%; high volatility is 10% to 20%; moderate
volatility is 3% to 10%; and low volatility is less than
3%.
WAGESThe gross total wages and salaries of all
employees in the industry. The cost of benefits is also
included in this figure.

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