Dear Reader,
In Q3 2014, leasing volumes continued to improve and in many of the more active markets across Asia Pacific, the tech sector
was a major driver of demand for space. Regional investment volumes were stable and are on track to reach a similar level for the
full year 2014 as last year.
You can view this report on-line at www.jll.com/thehub where you will also find our other research outputs.
The AP research team hopes that you find this publication valuable.
Happy reading!
Best regards,
Dr Jane Murray
Head of Research Asia Pacific
Feature Articles
Asia Pacific Economy and Property Market
The application of smart beta investment strategies to real estate
Fuelling Beijing office demand: two key industries to watch
Next generation of retail outlets in China
The great divide in the Philippine residential condominium market
4
8
9
10
11
Office
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Chengdu
Taipei
Tokyo
Osaka
Seoul
Singapore
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Manila
Ho Chi Minh City
Delhi
Mumbai
Bangalore
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Auckland
12
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Retail
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Chengdu
Tokyo
Singapore
35
36
37
38
39
40
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Delhi
Mumbai
Sydney
Melbourne
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Residential
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Singapore
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Manila
48
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
Industrial
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Tokyo
Singapore
Sydney
Melbourne
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
Hotels
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Tokyo
Singapore
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Sydney
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
Economy
6
4
Japan
Hong Kong
Australia
Singapore
Taiwan
South Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
India
2015F
New Zealand
2014F
Indonesia
Vietnam
Philippines
2
China
China grew by 7.3% y-o-y in Q3, the lowest growth rate in five and a
half years, with the slowing property sector weighing on domestic
demand. Japan posted another contraction in Q3 and is now in a
technical recession. At the end of October, the Bank of Japan
unleashed another round of massive stimulus. On a more positive
note, growth in India looks to have stabilised while the Philippines
continues to stand out for its strong performance.
Real GDP
Growth (%)
2014F
Real GDP
Growth (%)
2015F
China
7.4
6.5
Growth to slow to below 7% next year. Slightly stronger exports and public infrastructure
spending, but weaker consumption and investment.
Policymakers are committed to reforming and rebalancing the economy away from
credit-fuelled growth. Only targeted stimulus measures likely in specific sectors.
Japan
0.7
1.0
India
5.3
5.7
GDP growth to slowly pick up as a result of stronger external demand and fixed investment.
Recent fall in inflation provides scope for interest rate cuts.
The new government is making some progress on reforms, but weak infrastructure and
tight fiscal/monetary policies to date remain hindrances to growth.
Australia
3.1
2.7
Growth to slow on subdued consumption (soft labour market, high household debt) and
weaker investment (end of mining boom) coupled with fiscal austerity.
The AUD has fallen in recent months, which should aid export growth.
South Korea
3.4
3.5
Stronger exports (account for around 50% of GDP) as growth in the US gathers momentum,
although demand from China will likely remain weak.
Low interest rates and more public spending (health, welfare) but subdued consumer
spending as a result of high household debt.
Indonesia
5.1
5.8
Growth to pick up on strong consumer and public spending, but limited scope for a recovery
in exports and manufacturing output.
Inflation should ease but interest rates to remain high due to concerns about the current account
deficit. The reform-minded new government faces strong opposition in passing legislation.
Singapore
3.0
3.1
Growth similar to this year, supported by improving exports, stronger consumer spending
(fuelled by wage growth) and business investment.
On the other hand, weaker inbound tourism (less Chinese tourists) and subdued real
estate-related activity (ongoing housing market correction).
Hong Kong
1.9
2.6
Stronger exports but lacklustre consumption (slower growth in inbound tourism) and real
estate-related activity (property curbs).
Rising political risks associated with Occupy Central. However China should maintain
policy support to the city (as evidenced by the HK-Shanghai stock exchange link finally
commencing in Nov).
2015 Outlook
8
6
4
Taiwan
Thailand
Japan
South Korea
Singapore
China
Australia
Hong Kong
2015F
New Zealand
2014F
Malaysia
Philippines
2
Vietnam
10
Indonesia
India
y-o-y (%)
2006YTD 2014
150
20
125
15
YTD 2014
$85.2 bill
5% y-o-y
USD Billion
100
y-o-y %
10
75
50
5
25
0
Rental Values
Capital Values
Mumbai
Seoul
Melbourne
Hong Kong
Sydney
Shanghai
Beijing
Jakarta
Manila
Tokyo
Bangkok
0
Singapore
Property Market
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Japan
China
Australia
Hong Kong
South Korea
Other
Figures refer to transactions over USD 5 million in office, retail, hotels and industrial
Source: JLL (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 3Q14
Grade A Office
Bangkok
Singapore,
Hong Kong
Manila
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Growth
Slowing
Rents
Falling
Rents
Rising
Tokyo
Beijing, Bangalore
Delhi, Mumbai
Chennai
Taipei
Auckland
Wellington
Melbourne, Osaka
Decline
Slowing
Property Market
Hong Kong
Singapore
Jakarta
Kuala Lumpur, Guangzhou
Beijing
Perth
Manila
Adelaide
Bangkok
Tokyo
Brisbane
Growth
Slowing
Rents
Falling
Rents
Rising
Decline
Slowing
Mumbai
Delhi
Bangalore
Chennai
Shanghai
SE Queensland*
Seoul, Canberra
Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, Sydney
Wellington
Auckland, Sydney*, Melbourne*
*Regional
Prime Residential
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Bangkok
Manila
Industrial
Singapore (Logistics)
Singapore (Business Park)
Shanghai
Growth
Slowing
Rents
Falling
Rents
Rising
Decline
Slowing
Tokyo
Growth
Slowing
Rents
Falling
Rents
Rising
Decline
Slowing
Manila
Hong Kong
Auckland
Wellington
Singapore *
Hong Kong
*For Luxurious Residential Properties
Brisbane
Beijing, Sydney, Melbourne
estate investment volumes to reach USD 120 billion for the full year
2014 and increase to another record level (around USD 130 billion)
in 2015.
Moderate rental and capital value growth of less than 10% is
expected across most sectors and markets over the next twelve
months. Outperformers are likely to include Tokyo, Beijing, Sydney
and Auckland in the office sector, and Beijing and Bangkok in retail. In
some residential markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore, policy
curbs are expected to remain in place for some time, resulting in
downward price pressures.
Australia
China
China
Philippines
Evolving Metro Manila landscape with increasing number of residential condominium developments
The subject of the asset bubble waiting to explode in the Philippine
residential condominium market remains contentious among industry
stakeholders. While developers and brokers agree that the market
remains healthy, there are many others who remain sceptical about
the true health of the residential property market.
The argument for those who believe that the residential sector is
heading for a crash is mainly founded on the volume of new supply
that is expected to complete in the market over the next couple of
years. For the past five years in Metro Manila alone, the average
number of residential condominium units completed in a quarter
was approximately 6,000 units, while there are over 8,000 units that
are expected to be ready per quarter over the next five years. This
quarterly supply of new residential condominium units far exceeds the
ten-year (2003-13) historical average of 600 units per quarter. To the
naysayers, the future stream of completions is a product of the
excessively hyped demand over the past few years.
Financial Indices
200
Demand
Net take-up in the overall market reached a two-year high of 480,500 sq ft on the back
of robust leasing demand and a slightly more active investment market. In Central,
several large tracts of returning stock arising from tenant relocations and
consolidations reduced net take-up to 112,400 sq ft.
100
50
0
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
No new supply was completed in 3Q14 though two of Billion Developments Grade A
office developments10 Shing Yip Street and 5256 Tsun Yip Street in Kwun Tong
remained on schedule for completion in 4Q14.
8
300
200
100
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
400
100
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
No. of QuartersSince
Last Trough
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
Index
150
In an attempt to increase the total commercial GFA at Kai Tak Development, the
government proposed to relax the maximum plot ratios and building height restriction
of several commercial sites as well as convert the land use zoning of six Government,
Institution or Community sites to commercial use.
Asset Performance
The occupier market saw rents edge higher across all submarkets with the exception
of Kowloon East, where they remained under pressure due to competition from new
supply. Rental growth in Central was supported by growth at the top-end of the market
(i.e. Grade A1 office buildings) where the vacancy rate remained below 2%.
Capital values across all submarkets held firm in 3Q14 on the back of a low interest rate
environment and an up-tick in investment activity. The number of office properties over
HKD 20 million sold reached their highest level since the introduction of the Double Stamp
Duty in early 2013. In Kowloon East, Citigroups en bloc purchase of the East Tower at One
Bay East in 2Q14 reignited investor interest in the submarket with several transactions at
One Harbour Square in Kwun Tong achieving record highs, in terms of unit rate.
12-Month Outlook
We forecast mild rental growth across all submarkets over the near-term, with the
exception of Kowloon East where competition from new supply is likely to continue to
weigh on rentals. The vacancy rate in Central is set to rise owing to some notable
lease expiries in 4Q14, although only a handful of buildings will be affected. The
Occupy Central movement has not had a significant impact on office leasing so far
though we may see increasing demand for contingency office space in decentralised
locations should the situation persist.
Developers are likely to launch more properties for sale over the near term on the back
of improved investment sentiment. Capital values are expected to hold steady despite
growing concerns of rising interest rates. We believe that the higher expectations on
market yields arising from higher rates will initially be met through rental growth.
Capital Value
Note: Hong Kong Office refers to Hong Kongs Overall Grade A office market.
www.jll.com/datatouch
Jones Lang LaSalle
2014 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Beijing: Office
Financial Indices
200
180
Demand
Supply
For the third consecutive quarter, there were no new completions, exacerbating the
supply constrained status of the Beijing Grade A office market. The most recent
completion, FFC, continues to make leasing progress, albeit at a slower pace as only
higher priced spaces on high floors remain available.
Index
The Beijing Grade A office market registered strong net take-up in 3Q14, with the
majority of take-up concentrated in the CBD. However, total take-up volumes
continued to be held back by tight market conditions. Tenants from a broad range of
industries drove demand for CBD office space, consistent with the submarkets
historical demand profile. For example, Guo Tai Investment took 2,500 sqm in Yintai
Centre, while a second local investment company took a similar sized space at
Fortune Financial Center (FFC). There was a sizeable increase in demand from the
legal services industry. For example, Cleary Gottlieb leased 1,000 sqm in FFC.
Sustained demand and a lack of new supply caused the overall market vacancy rate to
decline 1.1 percentage points q-o-q to 2.5%.
160
80
60
4Q10
Strong enquiries observed from the banking and professional services industries will
likely result in a large number of transactions from these tenant types. We expect
supply to remain quite limited over the next 12 months, especially in core submarkets.
There is a growing interest in emerging submarkets due to the run up in rents over the
past several years. However, infrastructure and amenities in these areas are often still
catching up to tenants requirements. While expansion momentum may vary widely
across occupier segments, net absorption should remain strong. Due to sustained
demand and limited supply, we expect to see the low vacancy environment
characteristic of core submarkets persist. CBD landlords are likely to retain bargaining
power and we expect to see continued rental growth in the CBD.
4Q11
4Q012
4Q13
4Q14
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
1,500
15
1,200
12
900
600
300
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
No. of QuartersSince
Last Trough
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Beijing Office refers to Beijings overall Grade A office market.
4Q15
Percent
12-Month Outlook
120
100
Asset Performance
CBD rents trended upward for the second consecutive quarter, increasing 2.1% q-o-q
on a chain-linked basis. Landlords again expressed confidence in the CBD and
pointed to enquires from several different tenant types as evidence that market
conditions remained favourable. While CBD vacancy is higher than in other
submarkets, most available space is under negotiation. East Changan, East Second
Ring Road and Zhongguancun all registered rental growth of between 2.6% and 3.3%
q-o-q, while Finance Street and Third Embassy were flat, limiting the overall market
increase to 1.6% q-o-q.
140
Capital Value
Beijing: Office
Shanghai: Office
Domestic companies increasingly active in CBD leasing market
Rental performance continues to diverge in Pudong and Puxi
Decentralised office International Capital Plaza sells for RMB 1.5 billion
Financial Indices
180
160
Demand
120
100
80
60
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
In the Pudong CBD, the 87,170 sqm Oriental Financial Center reached completion in
3Q14. Half of the space in this building will be for lease, with the other half of space to
be self-used by Bank of Communications, the buildings owner. SOHO Fuxing Plaza
(39,000 sqm) in Huangpu District was the only new Grade A office building completed
in the Puxi CBD in the quarter. In the decentralised market, two new projects with a
combined total of 43,756 sqm of office space were completed in Minhang District: Xizi
International Center (27,126 sqm) and The Hub Tower 1 (16,630 sqm).
15
480
12
360
240
120
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
600
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
Shanghai: Office
Index
140
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Asset Performance
Pudong Grade A rents rose by 1.7% q-o-q to RMB 10 per sqm per day. Pudong
Premium Grade A rents grew by 1.2% q-o-q to RMB 11.4 per sqm per day. Meanwhile,
Grade A rents in Puxi dropped slightly by 0.9% q-o-q to RMB 8.8 per sqm per day. The
landlords of Puxi Premium Grade A buildings were more willing to offer discounted
rates to keep good profile tenants in their buildings. As a result, rents in the Puxi
Premium Grade A market continued to decline in 3Q14, reaching RMB 10.1 per sqm
per day, down by 1.4% q-o-q.
Foreign funds continue to seek out opportunities in the Shanghai office market,
although high asking prices for core properties have led some funds to seek out more
affordable decentralised or Grade B opportunities. For example, Alpha Investment
Partners made an en bloc purchase of International Capital Plaza, a decentralised
Grade A project in Hongkou District, for RMB 1.5 billion in 3Q14.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
No. of QuartersSince
Last Trough
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Shanghai Office refers to Shanghais Overall Grade A office market consisting of Pudong, Puxi and the decentralised areas.
Chengdu: Office
Financial Indices
140
120
Effective rents on a spot basis continued to decline as achievable rents in the newly
completed Tongwei International Center were significantly lower than the market
average. Meanwhile, older office buildings in mature areas saw rents decrease as a
result of tenant outflows. As such, net effective rents stood at RMB 98.8 per sqm per
month at end-3Q14, down 1.1% q-o-q.
The investment market saw no en bloc sales transactions in the quarter owing to the
diverging price expectation between vendors and investors. However, with more
quality office buildings due to come on to the market, it is expected that the current
situation in the investment market will change and the bargaining power of vendors will
be weakened.
60
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Physical Indicators
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
A large supply pipeline of Grade A buildings in 2015 is expected to push vacancy
higher and tilt bargaining power in the leasing market in favour of tenants.
Newly completed premium Grade A office buildings are likely to continue to outperform
with enquires levels remaining high. At the same time, landlords of lower quality Grade
A office buildings are likely to lower rents to retain existing tenants and attract new ones.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Decline slowing
No. of QuartersSince
Last Peak
10
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Chengdu Office refers to Chengdus Overall Grade A office market.
Percent
Asset Performance
100
80
Thousand sqm
In 3Q14, net absorption registered 91,400 sqm, up 20.6% q-o-q and 28.1% y-o-y. Most
take-up was attributable to new letting activities at International Financial Square (IFS,
Tower 1) in City Centre and self-occupied space at Tongwei International Center, a
newly completed office building in New South Area. As the best quality office building
in Chengdu, quarterly leasing transactions at IFS was again top amongst Grade A
office buildings.
Index
Demand
Capital Value
Chengdu: Office
Taipei: Office
Small space occupiers support demand
Landlords of several buildings increase rents
End-user acquisitions push transaction volumes higher
Financial Indices
150
140
Demand
120
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
There were no new construction completions in the quarter, but a major renovation
and upgrade project was completed.
Four developments totalling around 65,000 pings were scheduled to complete in 2H14.
However, it seems as if only one project will be ready for lessees by year-end, Union
Enterprise Building. Hua Nan Bank and Taiwan Cooperative Bank headquarters buildings
are still performing interior constructions. Both projects are likely to be completed in
1Q15. The Hungtai Nanjing project that was previously scheduled to be released in 3Q14
also experienced a delay and the owner has put the property up for sale.
Physical Indicators
20
160
16
120
12
80
40
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
200
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
10
^ net, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Office demand remained stable in the quarter as strengthening tourism and trade
relations with China and improvements in the telecommunications sector encouraged
tenants in finance, IT and telecommunications industries to commit to new leases or
space expansions. Overall net take-up in the quarter increased to 3,900 pings and
coupled with no new supply, vacancy moved lower by 0.2 percentage points q-o-q to
8%. Limited availability within existing grade A office buildings has pushed many
potential tenants and existing tenants to enquire about space availabilities at buildings
under construction, with several pre-lease contracts signed in the quarter.
Supply
Thousand sqm
Taipei: Office
Index
130
Asset Performance
Several landlords adjusted rents and incentives higher in the quarter. Overall net rents
edged up 0.2% q-o-q to NTD 2,546 per ping per month, the second highest level in the
past six years.
Total investment volumes for all property types in 3Q14 reached NTD 32.9 billion, an
increase of 14.5% q-o-q or 53% y-o-y. As at YTD September 2014, total investment
volumes have reached NTD 72.4 billion, a 15.3% increase compared to the same
period last year. Most office property acquisitions were by corporations to consolidate
operations or establish headquarters.
12-Month Outlook
Due to limited available space, tenants with large space requirements have turned
their attention to buildings currently under constructions. Most upcoming buildings are
located in the city fringes namely Dazhi, Nankong, and Neihu areas. Potential
tenants have been attracted by the relatively cheaper rents being offered at these
newer buildings. However, tenants with high affordability are still enquiring about space
in the Xinyi submarket.
The Taiwanese government has recently tabled property tax reforms and amendments
to residential cooling measures which are likely to increase holding costs for investors.
With uncertainty surrounding the implementations of these policies, some investors
have remained on the side-lines waiting for prices to adjust to the new market
conditions. Moreover, institutional investors have begun to explore overseas markets
for property acquisitions, in particular insurance companies following the relaxation of
investment restrictions. In 3Q14, two notable overseas investments involved domestic
insurers acquiring commercial properties in London and Frankfurt.
Capital Value
Note: Taipei Office refers to Taipeis Overall Grade A office market.
Tokyo: Office
Financial Indices
130
Demand
A traditional low season for leasing and consolidation activity from the manufacturing
sector resulted in net take-up contracting by 19,000 sqm, the first decline in five
quarters. However, expansion demand was witnessed in some sectors such as
professional services and information and communication.
Major leasing deals in 3Q14 included Simplex and Japan Business Systems relocating
to Toranomon Hills, Akamai Technologies moving to Kyobashi Trust Tower and Termo
taking up space at Tokyo Opera City. Moreover, Nishimura & Asahi announced plans
to relocate in January 2016 to Otemachi 1-1 Project Tower A, which is due for
completion in November 2015.
Supply
Index
The vacancy rate at end-3Q14 stood at 3.9%, an increase of 20 bps q-o-q and 50 bps
y-o-y, rising for the second consecutive quarter. By submarket, the vacancy rates in
Otemachi/Marunouchi and Akasaka/Roppongi remained low, at around 3%, while
Shiodome and Shinagawa saw an increase in vacant space.
120
110
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Physical Indicators
8
Asset Performance
450
300
150
Rents at end-3Q14 averaged JPY 33,272 per tsubo per month, an increase of 1.5%
q-o-q and 4.8% y-o-y, the tenth consecutive quarter of increase. Rent growth was
witnessed in multiple submarkets including Otemachi/Marunouchi and Nihonbashi.
The investment market remained active in the quarter and capital values registered
growth of 4.9% q-o-q and 19% y-o-y. This was the tenth consecutive quarter of growth.
Investment yields continued to compress, trending lower for the fourth consecutive
quarter.
Noteworthy sales transactions in 3Q14 included the Mori Trust Sogo Reit acquisition of
Kioicho Building for JPY 34.3 billion or a net operating income (NOI) yield of 3.4%, and
the Mori Hills REIT acquisition of Ark Hills South Tower (25% stake) for JPY 19.15 billion
or an NOI yield of 4.0%.
12-month Outlook
According to Oxford Economics, real GDP in Japan in 2015 is expected to grow 1%
y-o-y. Positive growth should support a healthy level of demand, although it is likely to
be stronger for newer, better specified buildings. New supply in 2015 is projected to be
mostly in line with the average annual level recorded over the past ten years. Given
these market conditions, vacancy rates are expected to decline and rents should
continue to grow modestly over the next 12 months.
The investment market is expected to be supported by a favourable investment
environment, including low interest rates, which will place downward pressure on
investment yields and underpin the growth of capital values
Thousand sqm
600
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
10
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Tokyo Office refers to Tokyos 5 Kus Grade A office market.
15F
Percent
Capital Value
Tokyo: Office
Osaka: Office
Vacancy decreases driven by improving occupancy in the Umeda submarket
Rents grow for first time in over three years
Investment yields compress, while capital value growth accelerates
Financial Indices
Index
120
110
Demand
100
The vacancy rate at end-3Q14 stood at 8.6%, decreasing 180 bps q-o-q and 390 bps
y-o-y. By submarket, vacant space decreased significantly in Umeda, driven by
improving occupancy at Grand Front Osaka Towers and Umeda Sky Tower West.
Osaka: Office
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Relocations in the quarter included GMO Group companies relocating to Grand Front
Osaka Tower B and The Sumitomo Warehouse relocating to Sumitomo Nakanoshima
Building. In addition, Mitsubishi Electrics announced plans to consolidate at Grand
Front Osaka Tower A in November.
Supply
Physical Indicators
200
14
Asset Performance
10
Rents at end-3Q14 averaged JPY 15,621 per tsubo per month, increasing 0.8% q-o-q
and 0.1% y-o-y. Rents registered growth for the first time in 13 quarters, reflecting
improved market conditions amid strengthening capital expenditure and gradually
increasing exports. Rents have turned around and started to exhibit growth in various
submarkets, including Umeda and Dojima. Meanwhile, the rent-free period offered by
some landlords was lowered over the quarter.
120
80
6
4
40
2
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
12
Percent
Thousand sqm
160
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Osaka Office refers to Osakas 2 Kus Grade A office market.
Seoul: Office
Financial Indices
140
130
Demand
In the CBD, noteworthy move-ins included Koswire (1,800 sqm) at KCCI and Oracle
University (1,170 sqm) at Seoul Square.
120
Index
In 3Q14, overall net absorption slowed q-o-q to 14,330 sqm but remained positive for
the seventh consecutive quarter.
110
100
In Yeouido, positive demand was witnessed at Two IFC, FKI Tower and HP Building.
Occupancy at Two IFC increased by 4,500 sqm while KEB Futures leased 2,000 sqm
at FKI Tower and Pantech C&I (5,700 sqm) relocated to HP Building from the CBD.
In Gangnam, Korea South-East Power departed Glass Tower (7,000 sqm) for the
regional city of Jinju and vacancy rose at ASEM Tower due to several tenants
departing including EA Korea (7,700 sqm).
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Supply
Asset Performance
400
20
300
15
200
10
100
Percent
Overall net effective rent in Seoul declined 0.6% q-o-q as several buildings with
upcoming vacancies motivated landlords to increase incentives.
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
No new buildings completed during the quarter and D Tower (GFA 105,800 sqm) in the
CBD is expected to be the only completion in the remainder of the year and is due in
October. Hanhwa Janggyo Building in the CBD is expected to begin an extensive
refurbishment in 4Q14.
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Decline slowing
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Seoul Office refers to Seouls Overall Grade A office market.
Capital Value
Seoul: Office
Singapore: Office
Headquarter setups prop up demand for office space
Rents trend higher as office vacancy tightens
Capital values stay flat amid expanding yield environment
Financial Indices
130
120
Demand
Overall CBD net take-up remained positive (10,804 sqm) and vacancy declined by 50
bps q-o-q to 6%. The Raffles submarket registered the largest improvement across all
submarkets, with the vacancy rate declining 190 bps to 2.5%.
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
12
250
10
200
150
100
50
2
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
300
Demand from financial institutions was mixed as expansion and consolidation activity
was observed. While European financial institutions continued with their consolidation
or decentralisation activity, Mizuho, a Japanese bank, announced its decision to ramp
up overseas expansion, with Singapore highlighted as a pivotal platform to expand its
market share in Asia. This will see Mizuho relocate to a much bigger 100,000 sq ft
office premise at Asia Square Tower 2, which will cater to a projected headcount of 900
within the next three to five years.
On a positive note, multi-national companies continue to view Singapore as an ideal
springboard into Southeast Asia given its established intellectual property laws and
strong local talent pool. In 3Q14, this was evidenced by General Motors move into OUE
Bayfront which will house its Asia Pacific headquarters and AON, an insurance firm, which
recently inked an agreement to occupy 75,000 sq ft of office space in SGX Centre 1.
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
Singapore: Office
Index
110
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Supply
No new completions were recorded in 3Q14.
Asset Performance
Average CBD rents rose by 3.1% q-o-q to SGD 10.3 per sq ft per month in 3Q14, a
marginal slowdown in the quarterly growth pace seen in the previous quarter. The growth
in rents has been further supported by tenants demand for good quality space, which
remains in limited supply on the back of the tightening vacancy rate in the market.
Indicative en bloc capital values stayed flat in 3Q14 on the back of an expansionary
yield environment. Meanwhile, more opportunistic acquisition activity was observed as
SEB Asset Management acquired Anson House for SGD 172 million (SGD 2,285 per
sq ft), with a consideration to eventually strata subdivide into smaller units to appeal to
individual investors. Other key deals in the quarter included Keppel Lands divestment
of its one-third stake in MBFC Tower 3 to K-REIT for SGD 1.25 billion (SGD 2,794 per
sq ft) and Straits Trading Building acquisition by Sun Ventures for SGD 450 million
(SGD 2,830 per sq ft).
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
No. of QuartersSince
Last Trough
With CapitaGreen and South Beach Towers in the CBD expected to complete in 4Q14,
vacancy rates are likely to rise on the back of the modest pre-commitment expected at
both developments. This, alongside an influx of supply in 2016 is expected to see
rental growth moderate over the course of the next year.
Growth in capital values is expected to lag that of rentals, as investors increasingly
seek higher office yields. The growing expectation for higher yields follows the ongoing
US Federal Reserve tapering of its bond buying programme and is bringing closer the
possibility of an interest rate rise. As such, the office market is expected to see a
continued expansion in yields over the next 12 months.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Singapore Office refers to Singapores CBD Grade A office market in Marina Bay, Raffles Place, Shenton Way
and Marina Centre.
Bangkok: Office
Financial Indices
140
130
Demand
120
Index
Net absorption totalled 7,900 sqm in 3Q14 as business sentiment continues to improve
with a relatively stable and calm environment following the 22 May military coup.
Leasing demand remained active and consisted mostly of lease renewals in existing
prime grade office buildings. All large renewals were in Central East, with the largest
being Lazada Limiteds renewal of its lease at One Pacific Place Building. Apart from
that, Vibulthani Tower had one large renewal by Nippon Express (Thailand) Co Ltd.
As a result of leasing demand and no new supply in the quarter, the overall vacancy
rate declined slightly from 8.2% in 2Q14 to 7.8% in 3Q14. In Central Bangkok vacancy
decreased to 9.1%, while in Central East it increased to 4.3%.
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Supply
Bhiraj Tower (47,442 sqm), which was previously expected to complete in 4Q14 has
been delayed until 1Q15. This mixed-used building is located near Phrom Pong BTS
station in Central East.
Asset Performance
Average gross rents increased 1.9% q-o-q to THB 746 per sqm per month in 3Q14.
Capital values increased at a higher rate than average gross rents, up 3.1% q-o-q to
THB 98,069 per sqm in 3Q14, while market yields compressed by 10 basis points to 7%.
One freehold office building sales transaction was completed at end-June 2014 when
Major Development sold Equinox Office Tower to WHA Plc for THB 2.05 billion. The
buildings name was then changed to SJ Infinite 1.
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Vacancy is expected to fall gradually through end-2014 as new supply has been
delayed into 2015 and should support a rise in rents. While new projects such as
Bhiraj Tower and AIA Sathorn have some pre-commitments, we do not expect them to
be fully let upon completion, likely causing an uptick in the vacancy rate in early 2015.
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
11
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Bangkok Office refers to Bangkoks CBD Grade A office market.
Completions
Vacancy Rate
12-Month Outlook
The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate at 2% in September in order to
stimulate the economy which is expected to improve by end-2014. With an
improvement in the political climate and economic direction, a continued recovery in
investment and business sentiment is expected to lead to GDP growth of 4.5% in
2015. These positive fundamentals should support a continued growth of the Bangkok
office market.
Percent
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
Grade A office stock remained unchanged in 3Q14 at 1,738,000 sqm, with no new
supply in the Central Bangkok and Central East submarkets.
Capital Value
Bangkok: Office
Financial Indices
120
115
Demand
Despite positive net absorption of 76,000 sq ft, the average vacancy rate increased
marginally from 13.8% in 2Q14 to 14.2% in 3Q14.
105
100
95
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Total office stock in the City Centre was 22.6 million sq ft as at end-3Q14.
Menara Hap Seng 2, a 320,000 sq ft prime office building located on Jalan Tengah (in
the Golden Triangle), is the only office building expected to be completed with a
Certificate of Completion and Compliance in 4Q14.
Physical Indicators
24
250
20
200
16
150
12
100
50
4
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Asset Performance
Percent
300
In 3Q14, demand was supported by relocation and expansion activity of existing local
tenants. Notable take-up in the City Centre included: the expansion of Lend Lease at
Menara Binjai, the relocation of BAE Systems Applied Intelligence to Menara Binjai
from Wisma Selangor Dredging and the relocation of Suria KLCC Sdn Bhd from Suria
KLCC shopping mall to Menara Darussalam.
Supply
Thousand sqm
Index
110
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
Generally, rental rates for the majority of office buildings remained stable in the
quarter. Landlords were hestitant to reduce asking rents due to increasing operation
and maintenance costs. However, landlords of buildings with relatively high vacancy
rates were more willing to offer incentives i.e. rent free periods.
No prime office buildings in the City Centre were transacted in 3Q14 as investors
adopted a cautious approach due to limited short term rental growth prospects and a
lack of investment grade assets available for sale.
12-Month Outlook
The average vacancy rate in the City Centre is expected to increase marginally in the
short to medium term due to incoming supply and a stable level of demand.
Supported by continuous economic growth especially in the services sector, demand
is expected to remain stable in the short term owing to more tenant relocations and
expansions at newer offices with good quality specification, green building certification,
MSC cybercentre status and attractive rental rates.
Despite limited rental growth prospects, capital values are expected to remain stable
in the short to medium term as most vendors are reluctant to reduce prices. However,
some buildings are likely to see capital values appreciate due to several factors
such as better rental income, higher construction costs, better quality facilities and
escalating land costs, especially in the more sought after commercially established
locations like the Golden Triangle.
Investment market conditions are likely to remain mixed, with some investors taking a
cautious view due to limited short term rental growth prospects, a pricing mismatch
between vendors and purchasers, and limited prime grade office buildings available for
sale in the market.
^gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Kuala Lumpur Office refers to Kuala Lumpurs Grade A office market.
Jakarta: Office
Financial Indices
320
280
Demand
Supply
No new projects completed during 3Q14 and the existing stock of investment grade
office space in Jakarta remained at 1.29 million sqm. In spite of robust demand growth
in recent years, the development of premium grade office buildings in Jakarta has been
relatively limited. Furthermore, we expect no new project to enter the market this year.
240
Index
A slowing economy and no new supply resulted in overall take-up in the CBD
remaining at a relatively subdued level, with net absorption recorded at 4,500 sqm in
the quarter. Take-up was supported by new setups and expansion of some existing
tenants in Sudirman, which continued to be perceived as a prestigious address for
corporate tenants. Professional services (e.g. banking and financial services),
agriculture and manufacturing sectors mainly servicing the local economy remained
the main demand drivers. Slightly improved demand and no additional supply pushed
the vacancy rate down 0.3 percentage points q-o-q to 3.3% in 3Q14.
160
120
80
4Q10
12-Month Outlook
Indonesias economic growth and the general outlook for businesses are likely to
remain positive following the swearing in of the new President in October. Political
tension is not likely to impact the economy, as the President looks capable of sorting
out the regional elections issue. Interest rates should remain stable through end-2015
after increasing by 175 bps during 2013.
Demand is likely to remain soft in the next couple of quarters as tenants become
increasingly wary of high rents. At the same time, landlords are confident in holding
rents steady due to high occupancy levels. Over the next 12 months, rents are
expected to remain stable or increase marginally, buoyed by limited new supply, high
occupancy and the absence of sublease space. Yields are likely to decompress
slightly in the short term.
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
300
30
250
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
16
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Jakarta Office refers to Jakartas CBD Grade A office market.
4Q15
Percent
Foreign investors, including private equity, sovereign wealth funds and developers, are
active and remain interested in the market. However, these investors appear to be
more interested in residential and logistics properties and no major deals involving
office space were witnessed in 3Q14. As capital value growth was in line with rent
growth, the average market yield remained stable at 7.8%.
4Q11
Asset Performance
Rental growth continued to slow and anecdotal evidence suggests that current rents
are perceived to be in the upper range of affordability for some tenants. Nonetheless,
some landlords were able to raise rents as they saw a good number of tenants
entering the market. Net effective rents rose to USD 337 per sqm per annum in 3Q14
on the back of high occupancy.
200
Capital Value
Jakarta: Office
Manila: Office
Net absorption remains positive, while vacancy declines
Rents continue to grow on back of strong leasing demand
Investment yields further compress as capital values rise
Financial Indices
160
150
Demand
140
Demand continued to be healthy from offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) firms for
office space in Makati CBD and Bonifacio Global City (BGC) in 3Q14. Net take-up of
office space in Makati CBD and BGC was 5,600 sqm in the quarter. Other notable
sources of demand included other services sector such as automotive, IT/software and
marketing, as well as embassies.
Index
130
120
110
Manila: Office
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Key lease transactions during 3Q14 included an automotive firm and an investment
firm occupying 2,100 sqm and 3,200 sqm, respectively, in Hanjin Building in BGC and
V Corporate Center in Makati CBD. Numerous IT/software companies occupied
relatively larger-sized office spaces in various office developments, such as a 1,800
sqm office space in Zuellig Building in Makati CBD, a 2,500 sqm office space in
Panorama Tower and a 1,300 sqm office space in Net Square in BGC.
400
10
320
240
160
80
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Supply
Percent
Thousand sqm
Physical Indicators
Notably, many Grade A office developments in Makati CBD and BGC continued to be
fully occupied while many other buildings exhibited high occupancy levels. The
continued increase in office demand is evidenced by the downward trend of vacancy
from 4.1% in 2Q14 to 3.9% in 3Q14.
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Asset Performance
Healthy office demand from multinational and local firms supported the continued
upward trend of office rents and capital values.
Average rents grew by 1.9% q-o-q to PHP 10,374 per sqm per annum as several
landlords raised their asking rental rates. Average capital values outpaced the growth
of rents with growth of 3.8% q-o-q, reaching PHP 108,000 per sqm. Consequently,
investment yields compressed further in the quarter, decreasing by 20 bps q-o-q to
9.6% in 3Q14.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
19
The large volume of upcoming office space may push vacancy upwards by end-2014,
as well as during 2015. The O&O sector is forecast to remain one of the primary
sources of office demand with support from other sectors, such IT/software, and other
traditional sources. In addition, the recent credit upgrade to investment grade from the
South Korean firm National Information and Credit Evaluation (NICE) Ratings, coupled
with Standard and Poors raising its growth forecast for the Philippines may keep
investment sentiment in the country positive, buoying the growth of rents and capital
values.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Manila Office refers to the Makati CBD and BGC Grade A office market.
Net absorption increased by more than 60% q-o-q, largely due to a large leasing deal
(1,500 sqm) in Bitexco Financial Tower. Leasing activity in other established Grade A
buildings was limited due to a lack of available large spaces. However, with no new
supply and an improvement in net take-up, the overall Grade A vacancy rate trended
lower to 8.9%. The dearth of available large Grade A office spaces has led some
tenants to pursue options in the Grade B market.
Index
Demand
80
60
40
20
0
4Q10
Supply
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
There was no new Grade A office supply completed and total stock was 155,000 sqm
as at end-3Q14.
Physical Indicators
120
60
100
50
80
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
10
Valuation-based yields for Grade A office space held steady in the range of 89% as a
result of stable demand and rents.
12-Month Outlook
No new supply is expected for the remainder of this year, however there is anticipated
to be a sharp rise next year when three new Grade A properties enter the market.
Demand is likely to hold firm for the remainder of 2014 before increasing in 2015, in
view of pre-commitments to the three new projects.
4Q15
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
There were no Grade A office investment deals reported in 3Q14. However, other
property sectors were active with several transactions taking place in the quarter. A
notable retail deal included the purchase of Metro Cash & Carrys portfolio by Thai
investor Berli Jucker Group, while in the residential sector several deals closed.
Thousand sqm
Asset Performance
The average net effective rent for Grade A office buildings remained unchanged in
3Q14 at USD 39.1 per sqm per month (USD 469 per sqm per annum), the seventh
straight quarter of no change. Some landlords were observed to have offered
incentives to retain large tenants on renewal in order to maintain occupancy levels.
4Q14
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Despite solid leasing demand for Grade A buildings, landlords are unlikely to increase
rents significantly in the near future as a precaution against the threat of rising
competition from upcoming supply.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
24
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Ho Chi Minh City Office refers to Ho Chi Minh Citys CBD Grade A office market.
Capital Value
NA
Delhi: Office
Quarterly net absorption highest in six years
Gurgaon rents increase, stable elsewhere
Capital values increase in both CBD and Gurgaon
Financial Indices
140
120
Demand
Delhi: Office
Index
100
80
60
40
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
700
40
560
32
420
24
280
16
140
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
Thousand sqm
Physical Indicators
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
17
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Delhi Office refers to the Overall NCR Grade A office market.
Mumbai: Office
Financial Indices
130
Demand
Key contributors to office absorption were from the BFSI, IT/ITeS and manufacturing
sectors. The quarter saw a robust number of sales transactions totalling 600,000 sq
ft and mainly in buildings that are under construction. Select developers, who faced
liquidity crunches, marketed their projects at attractive prices. There is optimism
among occupiers regarding expansion. This is shown by the number of requests for
proposal floating around the market for both lease and purchase of office space.
Index
In 3Q14, after the formation of the new government, positive business sentiment
amongst occupiers was reflected in the gross leasing volumes of Mumbai office space,
which grew significantly over the previous quarter. Net absorption in 3Q14 stood at
1.39 million sq ft, a notable improvement of 31% q-o-q. About 49% of the total gross
leasing volumes were from renewals and pre-commitment leases. During the quarter,
the vacancy rate in the overall market decreased marginally by 10 bps to 21.8% q-o-q,
but in the contrary, the CBD witnessed a rise in vacancy as some tenants moved out
and relocated to the SBD and Suburbs.
120
110
100
90
4Q10
In 3Q14, rents in the SBD North, Western Suburbs and Navi Mumbai submarkets
rose by 1% q-o-q. Rents in SBD North continued to rise on the back of the recent
commencement of the metro rail project. Demand for IT/IT SEZ rated office space
increased, contributing to the rent appreciation in select Suburban submarkets.
Nonetheless, the CBD saw rents decline on the back of negative net absorption and
lease transactions being closed at rents lower than the submarket average rent.
12-Month Outlook
The recent increase in GDP growth has generated a ray of hope that the Indian
economy is likely to bounce back. The anticipated growth in business activity is
expected to result in expansion by established businesses and the foray of new
players into the market. More than 500,000 sq ft of office space is in the final stages of
construction. A surge in office space demand is anticipated for quality office space as
global and domestic companies are willing to pay a rental premium for such spaces.
As such, financial indicators are likely to increase gradually in select submarkets
keeping yields stable.
4Q13
4Q14
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
1,200
30
1,000
25
800
20
600
15
400
10
200
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
17
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Mumbai Office refers to Mumbais Overall office market.
4Q15
Percent
Asset Performance
4Q12
Supply
After two quarters of limited supply, the Mumbai office market saw a healthy level
of supply with eight office projects coming on stream in 3Q14 and adding a total
area of 1.59 million sq ft to stock. However, the new supply came with low levels of
pre-commitment. Mumbais total stock grew by 1.6% q-o-q to 95.3 million sq ft. Major
completions included Birla Aurora in Lower Parel, Building 11 & 14 of Infinity IT Park in
Dindoshi and Empire Plaza 2 in Vikhroli.
4Q11
Capital Value
Mumbai: Office
Bangalore: Office
Corporate expansion supports demand
Scarcity of available space putting upward pressure on rents
Rents and capital values rise in all submarkets
Financial Indices
150
140
Demand
Leasing activity in the Bangalore office market increased during 3Q14 compared with
2Q14, with a total transacted area of 3.6 million sq ft compared with 1.7 million sq ft in
2Q14. Occupier expansion continued to drive leasing activity. Net absorption increased
34% q-o-q to 2.9 million sq ft.
120
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Six projects totalling 2.7 million sq ft commenced operations in 3Q14. New project
completions included Salarpuria Premia, RMZ Ecoworld 5A & 5B, The Adress,
Prestige Excelsior and Prestige Technopolis. As a result, total stock of Grade A office
space in Bangalore increased to 82 million sq ft.
Physical Indicators
Asset Performance
800
16
12
600
200
Percent
400
10
11
Due to an increase in demand, the overall vacancy rate decreased 0.3% q-o-q to 8.3%
as at end-3Q14. Notable companies that leased space included Continental, Zyon, Jet
Mobile, Rolls-Royce, British Telecom and TCS.
Supply
Thousand sqm
Bangalore: Office
Index
130
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
In 3Q14, average rents for office space increased in the range of 12% q-o-q across
the city. In the CBD, the average rent increased to INR 85 per sq ft per month, while
in the SBD average rent rose by 2% q-o-q to INR 51.5 per sq ft per month. Average
monthly rents in the Whitefield and Electronic City submarkets slightly increased to
INR 33.5 and INR 26.5 per sq ft, respectively.
Capital values moved higher across all submarkets due to improved investor demand.
In the CBD, capital values rose to INR 9,950 per sq ft, while in the SBD prices
increased to INR 5,350 per sq ft. Capital values in the Whitefield and Electronic City
submarkets were INR 3,250 per sq ft and INR 2,550 per sq ft at end-3Q14.
12-Month Outlook
Another 1 million sq ft of new supply is expected to enter the market in the remainder
of the year. However, with a healthy level of absorption anticipated, driven by primarily
by the SBD and Whitefield submarkets, vacancy is likely to trend lower.
Rents and capital values are expected to rise in the range of 56% for the full year
2014, driven by a robust level of demand as the IT sector continues to expand.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
17
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Bangalore Office refers to Bangalores Overall Grade A office market.
Sydney: Office
Financial Indices
140
130
Demand
The largest tenant move was by Macquarie Group who relocated into a new owneroccupier building at 4850 Martin Place. The financial group absorbed 24,000 sqm.
However, the effect on overall vacancy was negligible after vacating 23,400 sqm at 1
Martin Place.
Vacancy was relatively unchanged despite the strong absorption figure. Headline
vacancy increased 0.1 percentage points to 10.1% with prime vacancy tightening
0.6 percentage points to 12%, while secondary vacancy increased 1 percentage point
to 7.8% over the quarter.
Supply
Asset Performance
Average prime gross effective rents decreased 1% q-o-q to AUD 616 per sqm per
annum in 3Q14. Net face rents decreased marginally as landlords combat an extended
period of elevated vacancy which has hovered around the double-figure mark since
mid-2013.
Yields held firm in 3Q14 after tightening the previous quarter. Prime yields currently
range from 5.75%7.00% while secondary yields average 7.00%7.75%.
Five transactions were recorded in 3Q14 totalling AUD 699.7 million. This included the
largest transaction recorded this year with the sale of 52 Martin Place. REST Industry
Super purchased the 37,000 sqm office tower from QIC for AUD 555 million in July on
an equivalent yield of 5.52%. However, this yield was significantly skewed due to a
33-year lease to the NSW Government.
Index
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
Physical Indicators
200
12
150
100
50
50
100
3
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (gross)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Source: JLL
Rental Information
However, this improved tenant demand is expected to have a positive impact on rental
growth in the short term, with decreasing incentive levels boosting average effective rents.
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
Yields are expected to compress further over the next 12 months as competition for
prime grade assets supports values.
10
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Sydney CBD Office refers to Sydneys CBD office market (all grades).
Completions
Vacancy Rate
12-Month Outlook
A significant volume of new stock is expected over the next 12 months. The balance of
unleased space coming to market will act as counterbalance to improving tenant
demand and keep vacancy steady around the 10% mark in the short term.
4Q15
Percent
There was one completion in 3Q14 with practical completion reached on Macquarie
Groups new headquarters at 4850 Martin Place (24,000 sqm). The heritage-listed
asset was completely refurbished with an addition of a glass domed roof to the existing
structure. One further addition to supply is expected in 2014, with the refurbishment of
155 Clarence Street scheduled to complete in 4Q14 (11,900 sqm).
120
Thousand sqm
Positive net absorption has been recorded in each of the first three quarters in 2014, as the
physical market in Sydney CBD improves. In 3Q14, a total of 15,100 sqm of net absorption
was recorded with centralisation of tenants from outside the CBD a recurrent theme, as it
has been all year.
Capital Value
Sydney: Office
Melbourne: Office
Attractive CBD lease terms continue to encourage centralisation
Prime rentals rise while secondary rents stable
Prime yields below 6% at tighter end of range for first time since 2008
Financial Indices
140
130
Demand
Melbourne CBDs office demand continued to show signs of improvement in 3Q14.
Positive net absorption of 27,410 sqm was recorded, taking the annual total to 31,700
sqm. The CBD value proposition continues to encourage centralisation activity. As at
YTD September 2014, 28,500 sqm of centralisation activity has been recorded with
tenants such as Viva Energy, Jemena, Cardno and Australia Post all moving into the
CBD from non-CBD locations.
110
100
90
80
70
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
12
150
100
50
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
200
50
Supply
No projects were completed in 3Q14. A further two schemes are anticipated to come
online in the final quarter, adding 23,455 sqm to total stock. Overall vacancy tightened
from 11.2% to 10.6% driven by prime and secondary grade vacancy both contracting,
ending the quarter at 9.9% and 11.6% respectively. Sublease availability decreased for
the first time since 4Q13. A total of 81,600 sqm of tenant space was available at the
end of 3Q14, equating to 1.8% of total stock.
Physical Indicators
Thousand sqm
Melbourne: Office
Index
120
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Asset Performance
Investment activity remains buoyant across Melbourne CBD. As at YTD September
2014, JLL has recorded 33 major office sales totalling AUD 3.3 billion. This compares
to the record AUD 2.8 billion of sales for the full year in 2013. Two large office
transactions that concluded in 3Q14 resulted in new pricing benchmarks for Melbourne
CBD. Prime yields moved below 6.00% at the tighter end of the range for the first time
since 2007, with the reported prime equivalent yield range sitting at 5.75% to 7.75%.
Rental levels were relatively stable over the quarter. Average prime gross effective
rents recorded an increase of 0.9% q-o-q to AUD 389 per sqm per annum as a result
of rising net face rents. Secondary gross effective rents remained stable at AUD 285
per sqm per annum.
12 Month Outlook
Tenant demand and enquiry has shown signs of improvement since the start of 2014,
as the domestic economy continues to gain momentum. Net absorption forecasts for
the remainder of 2014 are positive and continue to be supported by the centralisation
of non-CBD tenants who continue to take advantage of attractive leasing terms offered
in a core location. While we are starting to see a reduction in sublease vacancy,
headline vacancy will remain in double digits over the medium term as we continue to
see backfill space come to the market. Investment demand for prime core product is
anticipated to remain buoyant over the medium term, although a scarcity of openly
marketed stock may have an impact on transaction volumes.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Melbourne Office refers to Melbournes CBD office market (all grades).
Brisbane: Office
Financial Indices
120
Demand
Asset Performance
Average prime gross effective rents decreased by 2.3% over the quarter to now
average AUD 419 per sqm per annum. This is largely due to an increase in incentives
to 38 months rent free, with net face rents remaining stable. Secondary gross effective
rents also decreased, despite secondary vacancy dipping to below 20% in 3Q14.
Despite weak demand, there is strong investor interest in Brisbane CBD assets with
solid investment fundamentals. Exemplifying this is the sale of Central Plaza Three to
Pembroke Real Estate Corporation on an equivalent yield of 6.40%. The prime and
secondary yield ranges are unchanged in 3Q14, with prime yields ranging between
6.25%8.25% and secondary yields between 8.00%9.50%.
Index
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
Physical Indicators
180
18
150
15
120
90
12
60
30
30
60
90
120
12
10
11
12
13
Take Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
Tenant demand is expected to remain weak through the remainder of 2014 and into
2015, with negative absorption and an increase in vacancy expected.
Rents will remain under downward pressure in the short term due to the surplus of
available space and limited tenant demand. Strong investor interest in prime assets
is expected to keep yields firm at the top end of the market, but weakness in the
secondary space market could see a further increase in yields for secondary assets. A
number of large assets are currently being marketed which should support transaction
volumes over the remainder of 2014.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Decline slowing
No. of QuartersSince
Last Peak
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Brisbane CBD Office refers the Brisbane CBD office market (all grades).
4Q15
Percent
One project was completed in the quarter, a small refurbishment of 2,140 sqm, Rowes
Arcade at 235 Edward Street. This will be the only project to reach completion in 2014.
There are currently three new towers under construction, which upon completion
will add a total of 188,000 sqm. The first of these due to complete is 180 Ann Street
(58,000 sqm) and 480 Queen Street (55,000 sqm). Both of these are due in late 2015.
Also under construction is 1 William Street (75,000 sqm). The towers are currently
68% pre-committed.
100
Thousand sqm
Brisbane CBD office demand stabilised over the quarter with 2,700 sqm of net
absorption recorded, following a figure of 21,200 in 2Q14. Contractions in the quarter
were largely recorded in the finance sector, unlike the previous quarter when mining
and resource sector occupiers were rationalising their office footprint. St George Bank
relocated to 1 Eagle Street, downsizing by over 1,000 sqm, and Bank of Queensland
relocated from the CBD to their new space in Brisbane Fringe. Although tenant
demand and enquiry levels were relatively soft, pre-commitment levels were high.
The largest deal recorded in the quarter was Commonwealth Bank of Australias precommitment to 12,000 sqm at Daishos development at 180 Ann Street.
110
Capital Value
Brisbane: Office
Auckland: Office
Robust occupier demand drives vacancy to below long-term average
Rents rise as Prime vacancy near the frictional rate
Capital values move higher on strengthening investor sentiment
Financial Indices
150
140
Demand
120
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Stronger business sentiment and robust economic fundamentals are driving leasing
activity in the Auckland office market. In the first half of 2014, vacancy for the overall
CBD declined by 160 basis points to 7.8%. Vacancy for Prime grade stock has fallen to
below pre-recession lows with leasing activity remaining high, exacerbated by the
limited fragmented space that is currently available. Vacancy in the secondary grade
has largely remained unchanged, moving 0.2% lower to 13.3% with occupiers keen to
secure the last available spaces in the higher grade stock.
Supply
60
15
40
13
New supply will remain minimal over the short term to the detriment of occupiers.
Construction of new office stock remains limited with only two office buildings, one
located on Victoria Street and the other Fonterras new headquarters in the Wynyard
Quarter, expected to complete by end-2015. Optimistic landlords looking to take
advantage of improving market conditions are now starting to restore and renovate
buildings, especially secondary grade assets. The lack of occupier options is likely to
spur more speculative development, with several corporates having expressed interest
in developing new office premises. This activity has generally been concentrated in the
Fringe areas and new projects are expected to only complete in the medium term.
30
Asset Performance
20
10
Physical Indicators
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Percent
Thousand sqm
Auckland: Office
Index
130
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
24
Falling vacancy levels and better market conditions are driving increases in rental
values across the Auckland office market. Average Prime rents on a q-o-q basis have
moved 1.8% higher reaching NZD 429 per sqm per annum while average Secondary
rents have moved 1.5% higher to NZD 249 per sqm per annum in 3Q14. The tight
office market conditions have also had an impact on Prime incentives, which have
fallen to less than one month per year on a lease term, driving up net effective rents.
Along with rising rental values, strong investor appetite for office assets has led to
robust growth in capital values which rose 9.6% y-o-y in the quarter.
12-Month Outlook
With no new supply likely to be developed in the CBD over the short term and a
continued strengthening of office market fundamentals, landlords should be in a
favourable position relative to tenants. The Prime segment is projected to be the main
recipient of growing demand going forward, as competition for limited space remains
high. However, the secondary grade market is also likely to see an improvement as
occupier demand filters down from the Prime segment. Investor sentiment and robust
economic fundamentals should support a further compression in yields for both prime
and secondary assets as the growth phase continues to gain pace.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Auckland Office refers to Aucklands CBD and Viaduct Harbour office markets.
Financial Indices
200
180
160
Index
120
Demand
Despite the pull-back in retail sales, leasing demand in prime shopping locations
remained largely intact. For example, a sportswear group leased a 4-storey shop
(5,360 sq ft) on Wellington Street in Central for around HKD 630,000 per month.
100
80
4Q10
Physical Indicators
70
Supply
Asset Performance
Rents on prime streets in core locations held firm in 3Q14, with retailers still willing to
shoulder higher rents to secure space for their flagship stores. However, with vacant
shops starting to appear along some high streets and sales slowing, retailers adopted
a more measured approach towards leasing decisions. As a result, we have started to
see some mild rental corrections in the market, though still largely restricted to fringe
streets in core locations.
Investor sentiment remained strong with buyers targeting undervalued properties with
upgrading opportunities. The investment market in the quarter was highlighted by the
disposal of properties by Link REIT for a combined HKD 1.72 billion. Properties sold
included the shops and car parks at Choi Fai Estate in Ngau Chi Wan and Choi Ha
Estate in Ngau Tau Kok, the Siu Lun Shopping Centre in Tuen Mun, the Tin Ping
Shopping Centre in Sheung Shui and the Tsui Lam Shopping Centre in Tseung Kwan O.
12-Month Outlook
Despite downside risks, retail sales are still forecasted to record mild single digit growth
in 2014 as the effect of the high base comparison brought about by high gold prices a
year earlier starts to fade. However, headwinds remain for the sector. The anti-corruption
crackdown in China and changing shopping patterns of Mainland tourists are still
expected to weigh on retail sales growth. On the positive side, international retailers
remain keen on opening stores in Hong Kong with fast fashion brands, cosmetics and
medicine retailers leading the way. Against this backdrop, we retain our forecast for
rentals of prime retail assets to grow in the range of 03% in 2014. Low holding costs
and potential upgrading opportunities in non-core locations should continue to draw
buyers into the investment market and lend support to capital values. In general, we
believe the Occupy Central movement should only have a short-term impact on overall
retail sales. Hence, the direct impact on retail rents is expected to be light, unless the
protests last for a longer period of time.
60
Thousand sqm
Henderson Land won the tender for Kowloon Inland Lot No. 11237 at 15 Middle Road
in Tsimshatsui, paying a land premium of HKD 4.69 billion. The site has the potential to
provide a total of 339,709 sq ft of commercial floor space. According to market sources,
Henderson Land plans to develop a Ginza-type commercial building on the site.
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
RV Index (High Street Shop)
CV Index (High Street Shop)
RV Index (Premium Prime Shopping Centres)
RV Index (Overall Prime Shopping Centres)
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
11
Completions
12
13
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
(Premium Prime Shopping Centres)
Rental Value^
HKD 302.1 psf pm
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
No. of Quarters Since 22
Last Trough
^ net, on LFA
Rental Information
(Overall Prime Shopping Centres)
Rental Value^
HKD 172.7 psf pm
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
No. of Quarters Since 20
Last Trough
^ net, on LFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Perth: Office
Growth of total retail sales remained largely flat in JulyAugust after declining 7%
y-o-y in 2Q14. The Mainland Chinese governments anti-corruption campaign and the
changing shopping patterns of Mainland tourists continued to weigh on demand for
luxury goods with sales of jewellery and watches down 14.7% y-o-y in JulyAugust,
albeit slightly better than the 31.6% y-o-y fall recorded in 2Q14.
140
Capital Value
Beijing: Retail
Urban market records negative net take-up for first time since 2007
Rental growth slows due to limited leasing activity
Market yields remain unchanged
Financial Indices
180
160
Demand
Index
140
120
100
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Physical Indicators
Supply
No new malls were completed in the urban market in 3Q14. However, there were two
completions in the suburban market. In Tongzhou, Jingtong Roosevelt (67,000 sqm,
GFA), owned by the ARA Group, held a soft-opening. The property has a strong
offering of kids-related clothing and accessories. BHG Lippo Mall (80,000 sqm), a
JV between Beijing Hualian and Indonesias Lippo Group, opened in Yizhuang, in
southeast Beijing. Both projects are the most advanced retail properties in their
respective areas and introduced several high-profile new entrants to both
communities, such as the first H&M and Starbucks in Tongzhou, and the first H&M and
C&A in Yizhuang. Both properties opened with high pre-commitment rates.
600
450
Thousand sqm
Beijing: Retail
300
150
Casual food and beverage chains targeting the mid-market continued to expand in
shopping centres. Two key examples are Jin Ding Xuan, a casual dining chain, and
Sea Hood, a seafood theme restaurant. Dessert and refreshment brands were
especially eager to open stores in shopping malls. Key examples included Dian Dian
Yi Pin and Ice Monster, recent arrivals from Hong Kong and Taiwan, respectively.
Beauty stores, in particular hair salons, opened numerous new locations, reflecting the
trend towards a rising emphasis on services. Two department stores Ito Yokado and
Sunshine Store were closed down in 3Q14, continuing the trend of previous quarters
as department stores experienced poor performance. Negative net absorption was
recorded for the first time in seven years due to higher vacancy arising from tenant
adjustments. For example, the food court at Shin-kong Place was removed to make
way for new restaurants. A high-end restaurant and two jewellery stores were closed at
Macau Centre, in line with the recent decline of high-end spending in Beijing.
Asset Performance
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Urban ground floor open-market rents increased 1.1% q-o-q on a chain-linked basis,
less than the increase recorded in 2Q14. Top performing properties continued to
experience strong rental growth, such as Chaoyang Joy City. Several underperforming projects with high vacancy rates experienced flat or declining market rents.
No en bloc sales transactions were recorded in 3Q14.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
19
Two shopping centres totalling 90,000 sqm (GFA) are scheduled for completion in
4Q14. However, slow leasing progress may cause opening dates to be delayed. The
overall market vacancy rate should edge up following both completions. Rental growth
should remain strong in key destination projects that experience high volumes of foot
traffic and high conversion rates. Of the nine projects due to complete in 2015, five are
expected to be in suburban areas beyond the Fifth Ring Road, underpinning the surge
in large-scale suburban shopping centres.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Beijing Retail refers to Beijings Urban retail market.
Shanghai: Retail
Financial Indices
150
140
Demand
Supply
One core project opened in 3Q14. A 4,000 sqm Maison Herms flagship store opened
on Huaihai Road after six years of renovation. The new Maison spreads over four
floors and hosts almost all of the brands product lines, plus a champagne bar on the
third floor and event space on the top floor. Located in a highly visible position, the
store is intended to further enhance the brands premium image among aspirational
Chinese consumers. In the non-core market, Met Plaza (48,000 sqm) opened with 70%
of space open and trading. The project is adjacent to South Qilianshan Road Station on
Metro Line 13. This community centre supports the densely populated area between
the middle and outer ring roads in Putuo district. Anchor tenants include McDonalds,
Starbucks, Hotwind and an underground supermarket that has not yet opened.
Asset Performance
In the core area, open-market ground floor base rents increased by 1.4% q-o-q to
RMB 52.4 per sqm per day. Non-core rents stayed flat at RMB 17.3 per sqm per day.
In non-core areas, a large disparity exists between mature regional centres and newer
properties, which are becoming increasingly generous on rental terms in order to achieve
high occupancy. Vacancy decreased to 7.2% in the core area as several properties
filled vacant upper floor space with F&B tenants. Vacancy also decreased to 6.6% in the
non-core market as tenants continued to fill up vacant areas in Shanghais largest retail
property River Mall. There were no en bloc sales transactions in the quarter.
12-Month Outlook
Retailers remain active in looking for expansion opportunities in Shanghai. Due to a
large supply pipeline in 201415 and cautious market sentiment, developers are
becoming more generous on rents and rent free periods, especially in immature areas.
Some projects are expected to experience longer than anticipated pre-leasing periods,
which could push back completion dates. Mature retail submarkets with high occupancy,
meanwhile, will continue to enjoy strong bargaining power as projects replace
underperforming tenants with higher-positioned ones and more well-known brands.
Index
130
120
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
Physical Indicators
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
10
^ net, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Shanghai Retail refers to Shanghais Overall Core and Non-core retail markets.
Perth: Office
110
Thousand sqm
In the high-end market, affordable luxury brands continued to expand as Michael Kors
opened two new stores in IFC and Raffles City. In the mid-range market, several
retailers closed stores in the quarter following excessive expansion over the past
several years. For example, La Chapelle closed four stores, including a 1,000 sqm
flagship in Agile International Plaza near Peoples Square. Demand continued to be
strong from F&B tenants. Coffee and tea shops with light refreshments were highly
sought after by landlords, as their afternoon tea concept has grown increasingly
popular. TWG Tea from Singapore, for instance, opened three branches in Grand
Gateway, IFC mall and iapm.
Shanghai: Retail
Capital Value
Chengdu: Retail
International brands continue to expand in mature areas
Rents rise underpinned by solid retailer demand
No major investment transactions
Financial Indices
140
130
Demand
Index
120
Leasing demand for Chengdus prime retail space remained intact in 3Q14, underpinned
by strong expansion requirements from international retailers. Shopping malls in mature
locations remained their top priority. For instance, Muji committed to around 500 sqm of
space in Chengdu IFS. British fashion brand Anne Karen entered Raffles City while Dirk
Bikkembergs opened a new store in Wangfujing Shopping Center.
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
4Q13
Supply
Physical Indicators
Forte Business Center (72,000 sqm, GFA) in the New South Area submarket was the
only prime retail project opened during the quarter. The mid-range mall was developed
by Forte Group. It is anchored by Korean supermarket Lotte Mart and has also
attracted a number of popular brands such as Starbucks Coffee, Samsung and Tissot.
800
600
Thousand sqm
Chengdu: Retail
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
Asset Performance
400
Sustained by solid demand, the average ground floor base rent marginally increased
to RMB 374.5 per sqm per month at end-3Q14, up 0.6% q-o-q and 6.8% y-o-y.
200
During the quarter, several department stores targeting the mid- to high-end consumer
market kicked off another round of tenant adjustments. Seizing this chance, some
high-end and affordable luxury retailers actively expanded in these projects. For
instance, Marc by Marc Jacobs and Calvin Klein set up one new store in Wangfujing
Department Store and Chicony Square, respectively, and Taiwanese multi-brand store
Tuan Tuan Boutique opened its second store in the city in Renhe Spring Department
Store-Zongbei.
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
No. of QuartersSince
Last Trough
15
^ net, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Chengdu Retail refers to Chengdus Urban Prime retail market.
Tokyo: Retail
Financial Indices
130
Demand
Despite mixed market conditions, demand from luxury, fashion and food and beverage
categories continued to be robust. Given limited vacant space in the prime retail market,
a number of retailers have been in search of space to meet future requirements.
Notable new store openings in the quarter included Rimowa at Omotesando Hills and
Victorinox which relocated within the Ginza submarket. Familiar, a childrens clothing
brand, announced that it will open a store on Ginza Chuo-dori, while Cos will open a
shop in the Minamiaoyama submarket. Both stores are expected to open in 4Q14.
Demand for duty free stores is on the rise following the implementation of the Revised
Consumption Tax Exemption Program for Foreign Visitors in October, which increased
the number of consumer goods exempt from sales tax. In the prime market, IsetanMitsukoshi, Japan Airport Terminal, Narita International Airport and NAA Retailing have
set up a JV to open Japan Duty Free Ginza within the Ginza Mitsukoshi Store in 2015.
110
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
Supply
No new supply completions in 3Q14.
6
8
10
2Q09
Asset Performance
Rents in 3Q14 averaged JPY 69,128 per tsubo per month, increasing 1.2% q-o-q and
4.8% y-o-y in the eighth consecutive quarter of increase. Rents for ground floor space
in Ginza, which is extremely limited, rose for the fourth consecutive quarter and drove
growth in the prime market, while upper floor rents remained stable during the quarter.
2Q10
2Q11
2Q12
2Q13
2Q14
In 3Q14, capital values increased 3.3% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y in the fourth consecutive
quarter of increase, while investment yields compressed for the second straight quarter.
Interest from investors continued to be strong amid favourable investment conditions.
A notable investment transaction in the quarter included the Japan Retail Fund
acquisition of G Building Omotesando 02 (15% stake) for JPY 5.31 billion or a net
operating income yield of 3.6%.
12-Month Outlook
According to Oxford Economics, private consumption in 2015 is expected to increase
0.7% y-o-y, while disposable income should grow 2.5% y-o-y. Given positive economic
conditions, demand for prime retail space is anticipated to hold up. Coupled with
limited supply, rents should grow moderately.
On the investment front, market conditions are expected to remain favourable for
investors with historically low interest rates persisting. As such, capital values are
expected to grow while investment yields compress.
Note: Tokyo Retail refers to the Ginza and Omotesando Prime retail market.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
No. of Quarters Since
Last Trough
^ gross on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Perth: Office
Index
120
y-o-y (%)
A recovery from the sales tax hike in April has been patchy. Consumer confidence for
Japan declined 0.3 points m-o-m in August to 41.2 as employment confidence
weakened, while sales of luxury goods in department stores in Tokyo for the same
month decreased 5.3% y-o-y. However, retail sales on a broader level improved with
large-scale retail stores sales in Tokyo increasing 3.1% y-o-y and 0.6% y-o-y in August
and July, surpassing the growth rates witnessed for the same period in the previous
year. Furthermore, the retail market has been getting support from a rising number of
international tourists which increased 22.4% y-o-y in August to reach a record high for
the month.
Tokyo: Retail
Capital Value
Singapore: Retail
Sustained interest for prime spaces from domestic and new-to-market retailers
Primary rents show muted growth alongside fall in visitor numbers
Capital values remain stable amid declining strata-titled sales
Financial Indices
120
115
Demand
Index
110
105
100
95
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
Physical Indicators
300
No new supply was added in 3Q14, as anticipated Suburban projects, such as Paya
Lebar Square and the refurbished East Point Mall, postponed their openings to 4Q14
due to construction delays. A total supply of 1.5 million sq ft is slated to come on
stream in 4Q14.
200
150
100
Asset Performance
50
0
In the tourism sector, visitor arrivals decreased 2.8% y-o-y in 1H14 and 8.3% y-o-y in
August. Weakness in August was mostly due to a drop in visitors from China, Indonesia
and Malaysia. This declining y-o-y trend in visitor arrivals translated into a continued
1.6% y-o-y (excluding vehicle sales) decrease in Augusts retail sales, as the retail
figures in both domestic and tourist segments saw a decline. Nevertheless, the
Singapore tourism board anticipates a rise in tourist numbers in subsequent months,
aided by the Formula One race, a three-day event held annually, that typically grosses
more than SGD 100 million in tourism receipts.
Supply
250
Thousand sqm
Singapore: Retail
Occupancy rates held steady in the Primary submarket in 3Q14 due to sustained
interest for prime space from domestic and new-to-market retailers. Under Armour and
Pudu, an American sports-clothing retailer and a travel-inspired fashion boutique
respectively, both opened their first Singapore stores in orchardgateway in the quarter.
Despite weak retail sales and slowing visitor arrivals, leasing demand was sustained
amid tight supply. 268 Orchard is the only upcoming mall in the Orchard submarket
slated for completion by 2018.
10
11
12
12
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Orchard and Marina rents grew marginally in 3Q14, supported by healthy leasing
activity in prime locations. The Suburban submarket faced downward pressure on rents
due to weaker demand in secondary locations amid a possibly oversupplied market.
Capital values remained flat in the Orchard and Marina submarkets, due to a price
mismatch between buyers and sellers expectations. While more than 1,000 stratatitled retail shops are estimated to be completed in the next twelve months, the
challenging market conditions in secondary locations has kept buyers cautious. The
key highlight during 3Q14 was the acquisition of PoMos retail premises by Celestine
Management Private Ltd from Enviro-Hub Holdings Ltd for SGD 150 million.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
SGD 38 psf pm
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
19
^ gross, on NLA
The lowering of the foreign dependency ratio is expected to continue affecting retail
and F&B businesses and may potentially have a negative impact in the longer term.
The Total Debt Servicing Ratio framework may continue to discourage investors, as
potential buyers remain cautious due to sluggish retail sales and the growing
e-commerce market. However, low unemployment, moderating inflation and increased
awareness by landlords and developers of the necessity for mall differentiation and
redefining the shopping experience, should support the demand and rent environment
in 4Q14. However, challenges are likely to be evident. Capital values are likely to
remain stable as tighter financing requirements put a damper on investor sentiment,
allowing the overall yield to expand.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Singapore Retail refers to Singapores Primary, Marina and Suburban retail markets.
Bangkok: Retail
Financial Indices
120
Demand
Index
Prime grade retail space remained in demand in 3Q14 driven by strong precommitments at the newly opened Central Plaza Salaya. International retailers
continue to open their first stores in Thailand with nine new fashion brands, four F&B
stores and a jewellery shop opening their first branches at Central Embassy. However,
vacancy increased to 4.8% as tenants continue to move into newly opened retail
centres such as Central Embassy and Central Salaya, coupled with the continued poor
performance of Gateway Ekkamai.
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
Asset Performance
As political turmoil came to an end and a government was established, both business
sentiment and consumer confidence became more positive. As a result, landlords
adjusted rents higher and this resulted in average rents rising 1.7% q-o-q. With capital
values rising slightly less than rents at 1.5% q-o-q, market yields expanded marginally
over the previous quarter.
12-Month Outlook
As the political situation has calmed and a new government has been established,
both consumer confidence and business sentiment have improved. However, martial
law is holding back international tourism to a certain extent. If the political situation
remains stable and martial law is lifted, the number of international tourists visiting
Bangkok should soon recover. As a result, demand for prime retail space should rise
and support a continued increase in rents, capital values and market yields.
One prime grade project, HaHa Market, is scheduled to be completed in 4Q14 and
add 18,000 sqm (NLA) to stock. Moreover, two prime grade shopping centres, The
EmQuartier (100,000 sqm) and Central Westgate (100,000 sqm) are expected to open
in 1Q15 and 2Q15, respectively. The overall vacancy rate should rise in the short term
upon completion of the new projects, but given the high level of pre-commitments,
it should then decline relatively quickly as tenants move in and begin operations.
The aggressive expansion plans of Central Pattana PCL, which will open two new
shopping centres in 2014 and two more in 2015, have created a more competitive
environment in the prime grade retail market. Central Pattanas biggest rival, The Mall
Group, has countered by launching The Em District, which includes The EmQuartier,
a luxury centre scheduled to open in 1Q15, and the renovation of its long established
shopping mall, The Emporium, which is scheduled to be completed by end-2014.
These expansion plans by the big two players should attract the entry of more
international retailers of luxury goods and cause rents to increase.
Bangkok: Retail
Central Plaza Salaya was the only prime grade centre to open in 3Q14. This regional
shopping centre provided 54,400 sqm of leasable retail space to the market. Total
prime retail stock was 2,622,000 sqm as at end-3Q14.
Physical Indicators
500
400
Thousand sqm
Supply
300
200
100
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
No. of QuartersSince
Last Trough
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Bangkok Retail refers to Bangkoks Prime retail market.
4Q15
Perth: Office
Capital Value
Financial Indices
120
Demand
110
Index
Demand was fairly healthy in 3Q14, however the average vacancy rate increased to
7.2% as a newly completed mall remained physically unoccupied.
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
In the Suburbs, the average vacancy rate increased from 6.2% to 7.2% q-o-q, mainly
due to the vacancy of the newly completed mall DPulze in Cyberjaya. However,
DPulze was 85% committed as at end-3Q14 by brands such as TGV cinemas, Jaya
Grocer, Celebrity Fitness, ACE Hardware, MPH bookstores, F&B outlets Plan B,
Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf, Rakuzen and Ole-Ole Bali.
Physical Indicators
500
Supply
400
Thousand sqm
DPulze in Cyberjaya (240,000 sq ft, NLA) was completed in 3Q14, bringing the total
stock to 29.8 million sq ft. DPulze is the first purpose-built retail centre in Cyberjaya
and is part of an integrated mixed-use development comprising a budget hotel,
serviced apartments, serviced offices and retail podium.
300
200
Asset Performance
100
In the City Centre, the average vacancy rate increased 0.3 percentage points q-o-q to
7.3% as retailers undertook renovation and upgrading works. Notable retailers opening
stores in the City Centre included Swiss luxury tobacco goods brand Davidoff (flagship
store), Spanish luxury fashion brand Loewe, American womens apparel and
accessories designer store Tory Burch, German-founded leather goods brand MCM,
and M Pavilion (concept store), all at Pavilion KL. Swedish fashion retailer H&M
opened a new store at Nu Sentral and French cosmetics retailer Sephora opened at
Avenue K.
10
11
12
Completions
13
14F
Future Supply
15F
Source: JLL
In 3Q14, some landlords took the opportunity to marginally increase rents at renewal
time and pushed average monthly gross rents higher to MYR 33 per sq ft in the City
Centre and MYR 24.5 per sq ft in the Suburbs. Capital values also increased in the
City Centre and Suburbs by 0.7% q-o-q and 1.4%, respectively.
Parkson Holdings Berhad, through its subsidiary Festival City Sdn Bhd signed a
conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement to dispose of its KL Festival City Mall
(487,342 sq ft, NLA) to Festival Mall Sdn Bhd and AsiaMalls Sdn Bhd for
MYR 349 million in cash.
12-Month Outlook
The retail sectors performance is expected to be relatively stable over the next 12
months, as cautious consumer sentiment is anticipated to prevail underpinned by
further increases in the cost of living. Rising finance costs and the implementation of a
Goods & Services Tax in April 2015 is expected to result in a temporary lull in spending.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
MYR 33 psf pm
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
21
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Kuala Lumpur Retail refers to Kuala Lumpurs Overall shopping centre market.
Jakarta: Retail
Financial Indices
130
Demand
Supply
With the completion of St. Moritz Stage 1 and the closing of EX Mall, the total stock of
prime retail space was 1.41 million sqm as at end-3Q14. The completion of St. Moritz
Stage 2 in 2015 and Central Park Stage 2 in 2016 (both located in West Jakarta) are
expected to add around 124,000 sqm of new stock to the prime retail market in
Jakarta. Supply growth in the market has been limited over the past few years due to a
moratorium on new mall development by the Jakarta provincial government.
Asset Performance
Despite relatively stable occupancy, tight competition among landlords and a
challenging business environment continued to exert downward pressure on rents. As
such, rentals generally remained stable at IDR 5,398,545 per sqm per annum, with
only a select few landlords increasing rents. Modest rental growth in the last few years
was partly attributed to low space productivity due to the growing number of malls
competing to reach customers. While tenants focused their efforts on meeting revenue
targets and keeping costs low, landlords focused on maintaining occupancy and
achieving a desirable tenant mix.
Capital value growth in the quarter was relatively in line with rental growth and as such,
yields were stable at around 10.9%. On the investment front, there were no major
sales transactions in the quarter.
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Physical Indicators
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Jones Lang LaSalle
12-Month Outlook
The continuation of the moratorium on mall construction is likely to limit supply in
upcoming years and help landlords maintain high occupancy levels at existing malls.
As landlords are likely to continue to adjust tenant mixes, this may present opportunities
for some to adjust rents higher. However, any rental escalation maybe limited due to
rising operating costs for retailers. With mall development in central Jakarta
constrained, new projects are likely to take place in decentralised locations outside of
Jakarta. Within Jakarta, the moratorium may present opportunities for expansion of
existing malls or the incorporation of a retail component in mixed-use developments.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
IDR 5,398,258
4,804,018 psm pa
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
Growth
slowing
5
14
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Jakarta Retail refers to Jakartas Overall Prime retail market.
Perth: Office
Index
110
Thousand sqm
120
Jakarta: Retail
Capital Value
Delhi: Retail
Net absorption highest in seven quarters
Rents remain stable across all submarkets
Capital values rise in Prime South and Prime Others
Financial Indices
120
115
Demand
Index
110
105
100
95
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
Within the Prime South submarket, Planet Sports leased 5,500 sq ft in Ambience Mall
and Villeroy & Boch leased 1,650 sq ft in DLF Emporio in Vasant Kunj. In Saket, Aldo
leased 3,000 sq ft in Select Citywalk. In Prime Others, major leases included Max and
Lifestyle leasing 10,000 sq ft and 11,000 sq ft, respectively in Moments Mall.
Physical Indicators
180
150
Thousand sqm
Delhi: Retail
In 3Q14, net absorption increased significantly on the back of improved leasing activity
and healthy pre-commitments at a new completion. Net absorption was recorded at
267,000 sq ft in the quarter, with over 74% contributed by the Suburbs submarket.
Retailers showed positive intent in opening new stores, but were focused on quality
mall developments. Owing to high occupancies in such projects, retailers were willing
to reduce store size or consider alternative space in high streets. Retailers were also
looking at emerging retail clusters for expansion, especially where quality mall projects
were available. Net absorption was the highest in seven quarters in Prime South and
Suburbs and at an eleven quarter high in Prime Others. The overall vacancy rate fell
by 140 bps q-o-q to 23.1%.
120
90
Supply
60
World Square Mall (200,000 sq ft) became operational in the Ghaziabad precinct of
the Suburbs submarket in 3Q14.
30
0
Asset Performance
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
15
Overall rents remained stable, with flat rentals observed across all retail submarkets.
With leased retail assets being considered by investors, capital values edged up by
less than 1% q-o-q in Prime South and at a similar pace in Prime Others. Both of these
submarkets recorded a 10 bps q-o-q yield compression.
12-Month Outlook
An improving domestic economy is expected to underpin growth in consumption and
retailers will be keen to tap into this potential demand. The availability of quality mall
space may be a factor in limiting absorption volumes. Retailers will probably remain
keen to undertake store expansion, but are expected to limit themselves to quality
projects. A few of the upcoming retail projects, which have shown moderate to healthy
pre-commitments, should support the expected higher net absorption levels upon
completion.
Sustained retailer interest is likely in the Prime South submarket, with rents expected
to show marginal growth. Rent increments in other retail submarkets will probably be
driven by individual projects that are performing well. Capital values should grow in
sync with rents, with a faster growth likely for leased assets for sale.
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Delhi Retail refers to Delhis Overall retail market.
Mumbai: Retail
Financial Indices
120
115
Demand
Supply
No new malls became operational during 3Q14 but a few malls are in their final stages
of construction. As poor quality malls witnessed less preference from retailers they
have resorted to mall restructuring / refurbishment, or converting part of the mall to
small office spaces and leasing them in order to minimise losses.
105
100
95
90
4Q10
12-Month Outlook
In the coming two quarters, a few malls are expected to become operational. Two
of these shopping centres are in good locations and have good potential to witness
healthy pre-commitments. The other upcoming mall is located in the Suburbs and is
likely to face stiff competition in attracting retailers from established mature malls in the
submarket.
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
Physical Indicators
180
150
Thousand sqm
Rents and capital values in the Suburbs increased modestly by 0.7% q-o-q in 3Q14.
Stock in the Suburbs is weighted more towards good quality malls, which naturally
command a premium rent over low quality malls. However, across the city, most mall
landlords did not increase rents as the market recovery is in its nascent stages and
continues to be tilted in favour of occupiers.
4Q13
Vacancy declined by 40 bps q-o-q and stood at 20.6% at end-3Q14. With increased
take-up in Prime South, the submarket witnessed a 160 bps reduction in vacancy to
2.5%.
Asset Performance
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
120
90
60
30
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
A low vacancy environment is anticipated to persist in the Prime North and Prime
South. With a steady rise in demand and lack of supply in these submarkets, financial
indicators should move higher in the coming few quarters.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
14
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Mumbai Retail refers to Mumbais Overall retail market.
Perth: Office
Unlike in recent quarters, which saw leasing activity dominated by apparel retailers
and F&B operators, a broad range of retailers leased space in 3Q14. It has been
observed that demand for organised retail has increased post-election, possibly due to
clarity on retailing policies and a sustained rise in consumer confidence.
110
Index
Net absorption improved during 3Q14 and was recorded at 61,000 sq ft. Prime South
witnessed the biggest rise in absorption during the quarter with most contributed by
a couple of lease transactions by anchor tenants. Good quality malls in the Suburbs
submarket continued to witness good leasing activity, while activity was also strong for
high streets in the Prime North submarket mainly due to a lack of quality mall space.
Mumbai: Retail
Capital Value
Sydney: Retail
Retail spending growth is accelerating
Average rents stable across all retail formats
Investors focussing on sub-regional centres
Financial Indicators
120
Demand
110
Index
Retail turnover growth in New South Wales (NSW) has recovered significantly over the
12 months ended September 2014 and is now growing strongly by historical standards.
The Australia Bureau of Statistics reported that retail turnover growth (year-on-year)
in NSW was 7.4% in August 2014, representing a faster pace of growth than the fiscal
stimulus induced 2009 (peak of 7%) period and previous high of 7% in Dec-2007.
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Supply
Only two small neighbourhood centres completed construction in 3Q14, but a major
(45,000 sqm) extension to Macquarie Shopping Centre completed in early 4Q14. The
AUD 390 million project was undertaken by AMP Capital after raising its share in the
centre from 50% to 100% (acquired from Westfield in 2012) and raising equity from
ADIA and CPPIB.
Physical Indicators
250
200
The supply cycle appears to have troughed in 2013 (106,800 sqm) and is expected to
show a rise of 30% y-o-y in 2014 (to 138,400 sqm), before stabilising in 2015 (+2% y-o-y).
150
Thousand sqm
Sydney: Retail
Leasing demand is gradually improving, although property market indicators are still
fairly subdued. In fact, the average Sydney retail vacancy rate for specialty shops
edged slightly higher in 1H14 to 2.4% from 2.2% but it does still remain the lowest in
the country. International retailers remain the major story in the Sydney market, with a
number of notable commitments made in 3Q14: H&M in the CBD; Forever 21 in the
CBD; and Zara, H&M, Uniqlo, Gap and Forever 21 at Macquarie Centre.
100
Asset Performance
50
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Average rents were stable across all retail formats in 3Q14. Over 12 months ended
September 2014, CBD, regional, sub-regional and neighbourhood declined fractionally
(by 0.5% or less); bulky goods have shown a very minor positive growth in rents, which
is likely to continue, driven by a rebound in housing construction.
Sydney has been one of the most active retail markets in the country from an
investment perspective. It appears investors are responding to the outperformance of
retail turnover growth recovery in NSW relative to other states. A total of AUD 841 million
worth of transactions have been recorded as at YTD September 2014. The Birkenhead
Point sale for AUD 310 million reached completion after 3Q14. Sub-regional centres
continue to be the most active sub-sector and account for 58% of transactions
volumes as at YTD September 2014.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
12
The 12-month outlook is looking increasingly positive. Stronger sales growth is likely to
translate into more robust leasing demand and rental growth over the next 12 months.
Transaction activity is likely to remain high as a number of vendors continue to take
advantage of higher liquidity in the investment market to offload non-core assets or
re-weight between different retail formats. Further yield compression is forecast across
all retail sub-sectors.
^net, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
NA
Note: Sydney Retail refers to Sydneys Overall retail market.
Melbourne: Retail
Financial Indicators
120
Demand
Supply
100
90
4Q10
Asset Performance
Average specialty rents have remained generally stable in 2014, with slight
improvements in the sub-regional, neighbourhood, CBD super-prime and bulky goods
categories in the past six months.
Investment transaction volumes in Victoria totalled AUD 1.2 billion as at YTD
September 2014; compared with AUD 935.6 million transacting over the same period
in 2013. Despite stronger investment activity in comparison to 2013, investment
volumes in 3Q14 are lower than levels reached in 1Q14 and 2Q14. Retail yields have
recorded moderate compression across each sub-sector over the past 12 months.
Sub-regional yield compression has been confirmed by recent transactional evidence.
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
13
14F
4Q15
Physical Indicators
The volume of retail project completions is expected to remain steady between 2014
and 2015, having slowed from the peak of 309,600 sqm recorded in 2013. Approximately
120,700 sqm of new supply is expected to be added to the Melbourne retail market in
2014, representing a little more than one third of the supply additions recorded in 2013.
250
200
Thousand sqm
The AUD 580 million redevelopment of a major regional centre and Australias largest
enclosed mall, Chadstone, commenced construction in late 3Q14. The centres retail
area will expand by 19,600 sqm as part of the redevelopment, which also includes the
construction of a 10-storey, 17,000 sqm office building.
4Q11
150
100
50
0
10
11
12
Completions
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
The expansion of major international retailers will help to support leasing demand. New
supply additions over the next 12 months are expected to be below trend, which will
likely place downward pressure on vacancy rates. Rental growth is forecast to remain
flat in 2014, before making a recovery in 2015. Strong investor demand and a lack of
available assets are likely to drive further yield compression over the next 12 months.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
^ net, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Melbourne Retail refers to Melbournes overall retail market.
Perth: Office
The arrival of new international retailers and the addition of Emporium shopping centre
in Melbournes CBD are helping to invigorate the city centre, putting the focus back on
to CBD retailing and in turn boosting leasing demand. Leasing enquiry levels from
food-based retailers remain strong. With weaker spending in some discretionary
categories in recent years, dining and food retailing have become a significant
component of shopping centre income. Landlords are using refurbishments and
expansions as an opportunity to add new dining and fresh food retailing options to
their centres.
110
Index
The pace of retail turnover growth in Victoria has been strong in 2014, with growth of
5.7% per annum (year-on-year) recorded in August 2014, higher than the long-term
10-year average of 4.1% per annum. The decline in department store spending in
Victoria appears to have bottomed in 3Q14. Spending growth in food retailing, cafes
and restaurants, and clothing retailing has been robust this year.
Melbourne: Retail
Capital Value
NA
Financial Indices
140
Demand
Index
120
The overall market saw a considerable pick-up in sales activity in 3Q14, with home
sales rising by 24.7% q-o-q and 80.2% y-o-y to 19,962 transactions. Demand for luxury
units also improved with 96 properties priced above HKD 50 million being transacted,
up 52.4% q-o-q and 242.9% y-o-y, and well-above the ten-year (20042013) quarterly
average of 73 transactions.
100
80
60
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Luxury projects launched in the quarter also received good response. At 1&3 Ede
Road in Kowloon Tong, Kerry Properties sold over 60% of the 41 units. Hang Lung
Properties also capitalised on the improvement in market sentiment, selling more than
80% of the 272 previously unsold units at The Harbourside in West Kowloon, a
residential project which was completed back in 2003. In the secondary market, a
handful of houses were also transacted on the Island, including the reported sale of 35
South Bay Road for a total consideration of HKD 808 million or HKD 110,776 per sq ft,
saleable; a record high for Island South district.
Physical Indicators
450
400
350
Units
300
Since the relaxation of conditions associated with the Double Stamp Duty (DSD) policy
in May, developers have actively launched more units onto the primary sales market
to meet pent-up demand. Apartment units in the mass residential market were most
sought-after due to the more favourable borrowing conditions and more affordable
lump sum down payments associated with smaller-sized units.
250
200
150
Supply
100
50
0
10
11
12
Completions
13
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Four luxury projects were scheduled to have been completed in 3Q14, providing 37
luxury units to the market.
Asset Performance
Landlords in the secondary market sought to capitalise on positive sentiment in the
market. As a result, capital values of luxury residential properties increased by 2.5%
q-o-q in 3Q14. Improved levels of leasing activities contributed to a marginal increase
of 0.3% q-o-q in luxury rents over the same period.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Decline slowing
12
^ net, on NFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Developers are likely to continue to press ahead with new launches to capitalise on
the current frenzy among homebuyers. However, we remain cautious on the 12-month
outlook as the forthcoming announcement of interest rate hikes as well as growing
concerns over the territorys political stability could lead to a slowdown in demand. The
Occupy Central movement has not impacted primary sales so far but could weigh on
sales volumes and prices, especially in the secondary market, if the situation persists.
Leasing activity is also likely to remain subdued through the remainder of the year on
the back of lacklustre expatriate hiring.
Looking ahead, the downward pressure on capital values previously forecasted is still
expected to materialise but now may not eventuate until 2015. Rents at the higher-end
of the market are likely to stay under pressure but should begin to stabilise in 2015 on
the back of an improved economy.
Capital Value
Note: Hong Kong Residential refers to Hong Kongs Overall Luxury residential market.
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Beijing: Residential
High-end apartment transaction volumes shrink
Serviced apartment rents remain flat due to stable leasing demand
Capital values decline in the primary market
Financial Indices
140
130
Demand
120
Index
Weak mass market sentiment affected the high-end apartment market as many
buyers have taken a wait-and-see approach because of the uncertainty over the future
direction of the market. Sales volumes for high-end apartments reached only 297 units
for July and August, lower than the previous two-month period. However, high
reservation rates were reported at several projects, such as Riverside Palace and Poly
Hyde Park. This is expected to provide a boost to full quarter transaction volumes.
Demand for high-end villa projects, in contrast, was robust, with 269 units transacted
in July and August, the same level recorded in 2Q14. The relatively lower villa prices
and growing demand for second homes were the major reasons behind the strong
sales.
110
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Physical Indicators
15,000
Supply
Prices were lowered at several luxury apartment projects as some developers were in
a rush to sell their remaining units. Also, no high-priced luxury apartments were sold
while transaction volumes of lower-priced villas were high. Given that capital values
are based on recorded transactions, high-end apartment and villa capital values
declined sharply in July and August, registering decreases of 12.4% q-o-q and 17.7%
q-o-q, respectively. Although occupancy rates increased slightly, serviced apartment
rents were flat q-o-q as most landlords continued to hold a conservative view on
demand.
9,000
6,000
3,000
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
Continued weak sentiment in the sales market is expected to lead to a decline in sales
volumes in the high-end market, causing prices to decline further. Once homebuyers
believe prices are near a trough, sales volumes should pick up and cause prices to
stop falling. No new serviced apartment projects are expected to open in the coming
12 months. Demand for serviced apartments is unlikely to see a large rebound unless
there is a sharp surge in expansion by overseas companies. However, we expect to
see the vacancy rate decline as tenants move in to recently completed projects.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Beijing Residential refers to Beijings Overall Luxury and High-end residential market.
Capital Value
Beijing: Residential
Asset Performance
12,000
Units
Only two high-end apartment projects received pre-sales certification in July and
August, adding 590 apartment units to the sales market. One new villa project entered
the sales market with 107 units of new supply. No new serviced apartments were
completed in 3Q14. Construction completed on a combined 1,845 units at three highend apartment projects Sheng Gu Yu Yuan, Lido One and Ocean Great Mansion.
Shanghai: Residential
Buying demand remains subdued in due to tight mortgage policy
Serviced apartment rents stay flat due to weak demand
High-end prices edge down as developers become more flexible on price
Financial Indices
120
Index
110
Demand
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Although nearly all Tier II and III cities have now lifted home purchase restrictions
(HPRs), the policy remains firmly in place in Shanghai. Coupled with tight mortgage
policies, buying demand in Shanghais residential market remained subdued, as
potential buyers continued to delay their purchase decisions, awaiting further
certainties in both policies and price trends. As a result, sales volumes of commodity
housing saw a contraction of 2% and 7% m-o-m in July and August, respectively.
Coming into September, a traditionally busy season for home sales, sales volumes
increased by 31% m-o-m, but was still down 40% from a year ago. Sales volumes for
the full quarter totalled 2,228,016 sqm, up 6% q-o-q but down 29% y-o-y. In the
high-end segment, most projects experienced a sales slowdown in 3Q14 due to weak
buying sentiment prevailing in the market. However, several newly launched projects,
such as Vankes Emerald Riverside, achieved better-than-expected sales. As a result,
the high-end segment recorded 343 units sold during the quarter, up 16% from 2Q14.
In the leasing market, demand remained weak and showed little sign of recovery.
However, thanks to some landlords deciding to strata sell their serviced apartment
projects instead of holding them for lease only, the average vacancy rate of serviced
apartments dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 14.5% in 3Q14.
Physical Indicators
6,000
5,000
Supply
Shanghai: Residential
Units
4,000
In the sales market, a total of 555 units from five projects were launched in 3Q14.
Developed by K.Wah Group, Grand Summit in Jingan District launched its first 156
units in July, and sold 9 units at an average price of RMB 97,533 per sqm. Developed
by Vanke, Emerald Riverside in Pudong District launched 103 units in September and
sold 48 units in 3Q14, averaging RMB 71,393 per sqm. In the leasing market, no new
serviced apartment projects were completed in 3Q14.
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
10
11
12
Completions
13
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
19
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Asset Performance
Amidst weak sentiment, several cash-constrained developers became more flexible
on sales prices in order to attract more buyers, although most developers remained
reluctant to cut prices. As a result, primary prices for high-end apartments only
edged down by 0.3% q-o-q in the quarter. In the leasing market, most landlords kept
rents flat given the weakness in demand for serviced apartments. In the land sales
market, Lai Fung Holdings acquired a residential-use plot in Huangpu District for an
accommodation value of RMB 59,859 per sqm, 62.5% higher than the reserve price.
As 30% of the buildable GFA will be used for social housing, the actual
accommodation value of this land plot reached RMB 85,513 per sqm, making it the
most expensive plot ever in China. This land transaction reflected the optimistic
outlook developers still hold for Shanghais high-end residential market despite the
current weakness in the market.
12-Month Outlook
We expect Shanghai to maintain HPRs in the short term. However, a sales recovery
may occur as banks loosen their mortgage policies following reforms announced by the
Peoples Bank of China on 30th September. In the high-end segment, we maintain our
outlook for a flat price trend in the primary market in 2014 despite the current weakness
in sales. In the leasing market, a quick upturn in leasing demand for serviced
apartments is unlikely in the near term given economic conditions. As such, we expect
downward pressure on rents for serviced apartments to persist in the remainder of 2014.
Note: Shanghai Residential refers to Shanghais high-end residential market.
Singapore: Residential
Slow sales volumes amid weak demand environment
Rents soften due to large supply pipeline in near term
TDSR continues to impact capital values in Prime market
Financial Indices
110
100
Index
Demand
90
80
70
60
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
RV Index (Prime)
CV Index (Prime)
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
RV Index (Luxury)
CV Index (Luxury)
Supply
Physical Indicators
5,000
4,000
Asset Performance
Buying sentiment remained weak in the Prime market as the borrowing capacities of
potential buyers has been constrained since the introduction of the TDSR. Capital
values in the Typical Prime segment declined by 1.6% q-o-q to SGD 1,320 per sq ft while
the Luxury Prime segment saw a similar drop of 1.8% q-o-q to SGD 2,220 per sq ft.
3,000
Units
Rental demand was healthy in July and August, with a total of 3,263 leasing contracts
inked for a total value of SGD 20.1 million. This comes at a slightly stronger pace
compared to 2Q14, which saw 3,740 rental transactions with a total value of
SGD 22 million. Nonetheless, the large amount of supply expected in the next
two years is putting pressure on leasing sentiment. Many owners of units in newly
completed projects have toned down their asking rents, which has made such units
more competitive with units in older developments in the nearby vicinity. Gross rents in
the Typical Prime segment fell for the fourth consecutive quarter to SGD 3.76 per sq ft
per month, down 1.6% q-o-q. Similarly, gross rents in the Luxury Prime segment fell
2.5% q-o-q to SGD 4.26 per sq ft per month in 3Q14, matching the pace of decline
recorded over the last five quarters.
2,000
1,000
0
10
11
12
Completions
13
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
An air of caution is likely to linger in the Prime market as long as the tight lending
environment persists. Sales are expected to remain at a low level, barring any
unforeseen policy changes. Rents should come under further downward pressure due
to the high level of supply in the pipeline, which is likely to prompt more landlords to
lower rents.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Decline slowing
13
^ gross, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Singapore Residential refers to Singapores Overall Prime and Luxury residential markets.
Capital Value
Singapore: Residential
Based on preliminary data obtained from the Building and Construction Authority of
Singapore, a total of 280 units within the Prime districts were completed in 3Q14. This
is a noticeable 77% q-o-q drop from the 1,222 units completed in 2Q14, predominantly
due to the absence of large projects obtaining Temporary Occupation Permits in 3Q14.
Two notable projects were completed, namely a 65 unit condominium along Nathan
Road - Nathan Suites, as well as Buckley Classique, with 64 units.
Bangkok: Residential
Two new projects complete amid an increase in demand
Limited apartment supply and active leasing supports higher rents
Market yields slightly expand as rental growth outpaces capital values
Financial Indices
120
Demand
110
Index
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
The leasing market was more active in 3Q14 than in the previous quarter owing to
limited luxury apartment supply and a more stable political situation. The vacancy rate
declined 0.3% q-o-q to 7.5%.
Supply
Six high-end condominium projects were scheduled to complete in 3Q14 but four
were delayed by labour shortages. Therefore, only two new high-end projects were
completed, namely The Room Sukhumvit 40 and Q. House Sukhumvit 79. These
projects added 612 units to the existing stock, increasing it to 29,252 units. Another
seven high-end condominium projects with a total of 1,952 units are scheduled to
complete by end-2014 and had a sales rate of 87% as at end-3Q14. These include
M Silom (161 units), Rhythm Sathorn (923 units), Rhythm Sathorn-Narathiwas
(315 units), Condolette DWELL (224 units), Focus at Ploenchit (134 units), Mirage
Sukhumvit 27 (116 units), and Dazzle Sukhumvit 7 (79 units). Most of these projects
have been affected by construction delays. In 3Q14, two new high-end condominium
projects comprising 205 units were launched, one scheduled to complete in 4Q14
while the other is due to complete by 2Q16.
Physical Indicators
5,000
4,000
Bangkok: Residential
Units
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
No new luxury apartments were launched and total apartment stock was 4,307 units
as at end-3Q14.
10
11
12
Completions
13
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Asset Performance
In 3Q14, condominium gross rents rose to THB 512 per sqm per month, a slight
increase of 0.3% q-o-q and 0.9% y-o-y. Apartment rents rose by 0.9% q-o-q to THB 355
per sqm per month.
Capital values edged up by 0.1% q-o-q to THB 111,119 per sqm in 3Q14. As the
growth of net effective rents slightly outpaced the increase in capital values, market
yields expanded marginally to 4.9%.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
No. of QuartersSince
Last Trough
11
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Almost 2,000 new high-end condominium units in Central Bangkok and Central East
are expected to be completed by end-2014. However, some projects could face delays
due to labour shortages.
The residential property markets in Bangkok are expected to continue recovering
together with business sentiment and consumer confidence as the political situation
improves and there is a clearer view on the economic outlook. Throughout end-2014,
major developers plan to launch more than 121 new residential projects including
condominiums, detached houses and townhouses after a slowdown in new launches
at the beginning of the year.
Capital Value
Note: Bangkok Residential refers to Bangkoks Central high-end and luxury residential market.
Financial Indices
120
Demand
110
Dorsett Residence (252 units) is located on Jalan Imbi in the City Centre. The unit
areas are relatively small in size (below 948 sq ft), fully furnished and priced at
MYR 1,750 per sq ft. The developer, Far East Consortium International Limited is
offering attractive financial incentives totaling a 12% discount. The development has
been marketed since end-2013 and has achieved a 60% sales rate as at end-3Q14.
The majority of purchasers have been from Hong Kong and Japan, and came to know
about the project through overseas advertising.
Supply
In 3Q14, market stock increased to 25,977 units with the completion of Soho KLCC,
located on Jalan Perak, comprising 480 units.
Asset Performance
Following an increase in rents and capital values in 1Q14, average gross rental rates
and capital values have held firm for two consecutive quarters at MYR 3.25 per sq ft
per month and MYR 728 per sq ft, while average market yield was stable at 4.7%.
12-Month Outlook
There appears to be a wait-and-see sentiment in the market due to property cooling
measures, tightened bank lending policies and rising inflation. However, instead of
developers reducing prices, many are holding on to projects until market prices are
deemed acceptable. The trend of developers soft launching and only officially launching
after they have secured a satisfactory number of sales is expected to continue.
Developers are providing fully furnished units to sustain demand and justify pricing and
are expected to collaborate with foreign agents to market high-end new developments
overseas. Buyers from Hong Kong, Japan and China have shown interest in properties
in Malaysia.
Market capital values and rentals are generally expected to consolidate. However,
newly completed modern condominiums of better quality and design are expected to
command higher prices, whereas rentals of these newer developments are only
expected to register marginal growth due to a healthy supply pipeline, limited demand
and competitive leasing market climate.
Note: Kuala Lumpur Residential refers to Kuala Lumpurs Prime residential markets.
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Physical Indicators
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
24
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Pavilion Hilltop Block C comprising 168 units was launched in 3Q14 following the launch
of Blocks A & B (453 units) in 4Q13. Block C comprises larger unit areas (2,7002,800
sq ft) compared to the initial two phases (1,2001,800 sq ft). The units are priced at
MYR 960 per sq ft and the developer, 1 Pavilion Property Consultancy Sdn Bhd,
registered a sales rate of 70%.
100
Units
The remaining 91 units of Tribeca were launched following the initial launch of 227 units
in 3Q13. Tribeca, located along Jalan Imbi comprises relatively small built up areas
between 510894 sq ft. The building amenities include meeting rooms, fitness centre
and childrens playground. The majority of purchasers have been foreigners from Japan,
Hong Kong, Singapore and Indonesia. The price is relatively expensive at MYR 2,300
per sq ft, however, the small unit sizes means that most units are affordably priced below
MYR 2 million. The developer, Low Yat Group is offering a 5% discount and free legal
fees on Sales & Purchase Agreement and achieved a 50% sales rate as at end-3Q14.
Index
In 3Q14, Tribeca, Pavilion Hilltop (Block C) and Dorsett Residence were launched.
Jakarta: Residential
Vacancy moves lower amid slight improvement in demand
Apartment rents remain stable due to tight competition from condominiums
Capital values grow in line with rents, while yields hold firm
Financial Indices
200
180
Demand
Index
160
140
120
100
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Supply
Ascott Serviced Apartments in Ciputra World is expected to start operations in early
4Q14. In the condominium market, stock remained unchanged at 7,003 units. The
luxury condominium Raffles Residence in Ciputra World 1 is expected to be completed
by end-2014.
Physical Indicators
Asset Performance
350
Most landlords remained reluctant to increase rents due to tight competition from
luxury condominiums. Overall net effective rents in the luxury apartment market stood
at USD 218 per sqm per annum in 3Q14, edging up 0.5% from the previous quarter.
300
Jakarta: Residential
Units
250
Capital values increased in line with rentals, while yields remained stable compared
with the previous quarter. Local investors continue to dominate and drive the sales
market in Jakarta as they perceive luxury condominiums to be an investment that
offers capital gains potential. Limited stock of luxury residential condominiums has
created an opportunity for developers to deliver new supply to the Jakarta market as
positive buying sentiment persists.
200
150
100
50
0
During 3Q14, the strata condominium market recorded no sales due to the absence of
new supply. However, buyer interest in the luxury residential market remains very
strong, with pre-sales in premium developments being very strong.
10
11
12
Completions
13
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
Rents in the luxury apartment market are expected to rise over the next 12 months
alongside an improvement in demand driven by the continued increase in business
activity post-election and an expected recovery in the economy. However, competition
from new projects and existing condominiums will limit rental growth.
Buying sentiment in the luxury condominium market is expected to rise in the next few
quarters as confidence in the new government grows. Sales of luxury condominiums
will likely be driven by project location and quality, as affluent Indonesian buyers
perceive luxury condominiums as an attractive investment that offers good returns.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Jakarta Residential refers to Jakartas Overall Prime residential market.
Manila: Residential
One development completes, adding more than 500 units to stock
Rental growth remains stable supported by steady leasing demand
Capital values increase moderately, while yields show slight decline
Financial Indices
150
140
Demand
With only one development completed in the quarter, net absorption decreased from
3,209 units in 2Q14 to 351 units in 3Q14. The average vacancy rate increased by 50
bps q-o-q to 6.2% in 3Q14 as several existing luxury residential developments had
increased vacant space.
Nonetheless, residential sales demand continued to be supported by positive
investment sentiment. Enquiries for luxury condominiums remained firm in 3Q14.
130
Index
The luxury condominium market in Makati CBD and Bonifacio Global City (BGC)
continued to see healthy demand in the quarter. Demand was supported by expatriate
employees from offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) firms and high-income households.
120
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Supply
Meanwhile, SM Development Corporation, through its new brand SMDC Premier, has
started selling its new project in Makati City named Air Residences. The development
is expected to contribute more than 3,600 units to the existing stock once it is
completed in 2020.
Physical Indicators
12,000
10,000
8,000
Units
Asset Performance
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
10
11
12
Completions
13
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Manila Residential refers to the Makati CBD and Fringe Residential Condominium Market.
Capital Value
Manila: Residential
In 3Q14, one new development was completed, namely Edades Tower and Garden
Villas, which added 568 units to the existing stock.
Financial Indices
180
170
160
Demand
Index
150
Visible trade continued to improve in 3Q14 with the total value of all exports and
imports growing by 5.4% y-o-y and 6.6% y-o-y, respectively, in JulyAugust. Air freight
cargo volumes were up 8.6% y-o-y over the same two month period and helped offset
the 0.6% y-o-y decrease in container throughout volumes.
140
130
120
110
100
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Physical Indicators
500
Supply
450
400
Thousand sqm
350
300
250
200
250
100
50
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Asset Performance
With overall vacancy remaining tight and the leasing market still largely favouring
landlords, rents recorded their strongest quarterly growth as at YTD 3Q14, to reach a
new record high.
Capital values also continued to trend higher, buoyed by improved market sentiment.
Investors showed the strongest interest in buildings with revitalisation and redevelopment
potential. Two en bloc transactions were recorded in Fanling. Fook Lee Group continued
to offload assets in its portfolio, selling EAC Distribution Centre for HKD 405 million, while
a local investor acquired the whole of Mineron Centre for HKD 515 million.
12-Month Outlook
Rental Information
Rental Value^
HKD 11 psf pm
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
19
^ net, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Hong Kongs visible trade is expected to maintain momentum over the near term,
growing by 2.3% in 2014 and 10.3% in 2015. Domestically, the retail sector is likely
to return to growth in 4Q14. In addition, new supply coming online is expected to
have limited impact on the market owing to the current supply-demand imbalances.
As a result, demand for warehousing space should be well supported over the short
term. The better-than-expected performance of rents and capital values through
the first three quarters of the year has prompted us to revise our full-year forecast
for 2014 upwards to a range of 1015% and 1520%, respectively. The Occupy
Central movement has not impacted the warehouse market so far, but may hold back
warehousing demand from retailers if the situation persists. The attractive yield spread
over other industrial classes should continue to draw investors towards the warehouse
market and push capital values higher.
Note: Hong Kong Industrial refers to Hong Kongs Industrial Warehouse market.
Beijing: Industrial
Financial Indices
160
Demand
Index
The non-bonded logistics market recorded 164,000 sqm of net take-up in 3Q14, the
largest quarterly figure on record. Net absorption came mainly from two projects
completed in 3Q14. Yupei Beijing Logistics Park and China Resources Phase II
achieved commitment rates of 90% and 100%, respectively. Benefiting from both
online and brick-and-mortar retailer demand, third-party logistics (3PL) firms were the
most active in the leasing market in 3Q14. Another large space was leased to a
multinational electrical appliance company, which took half of the available space at
Yuehai International Logistics in Tongzhou Logistics Park. However, the electrical
appliance company outsources its logistics management to the warehouse operator,
continuing a recent market trend. The pharmaceutical industry continued to lease
warehouse space. For example, a pharmaceutical company expanded its existing
footprint by 5,500 sqm at a Liangxiang project. Beyond Beijings borders, relatively
abundant space and lower rents have made outlying areas a strategic location for
companies to operate their regional distribution centres. In a renewal and expansion
deal, sports retailer Decathlon leased an additional 57,000 sqm. Some tenants
struggling with high Beijing rents are likely to relocate, but they will have to consider
the increased transportation costs.
140
120
100
80
4Q10
Asset Performance
The market has tipped in favour of tenants due to the available supply in outlying
areas beyond Beijings borders, resulting in flat rental growth q-o-q. Tenants are giving
consideration to the outlying areas because they are more affordable. However,
Beijing remains the first choice for tenants.
12-Month Outlook
Two projects are planned to complete construction over the coming 12 months, adding
an additional 130,000 sqm of new supply. Demand for prime warehouse space is likely
to remain stable and we expect to see 3PL companies continue to drive demand, while
medical and pharmaceuticals as well as e-commerce firms are likely to remain active
in the leasing market. As such, we expect the vacancy rate to remain low and rents to
increase modestly over the next 12 months.
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
Physical Indicators
300
250
Thousand sqm
200
150
100
50
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
19
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Beijing Industrial refers to Beijings Prime non-bonded logistics market.
4Q15
Supply
Yupei Beijing Tongzhou Logistics Park finally completed after a four quarter delay,
while China Resources Logistics Phase II completed after a delay of two quarters.
Both projects were delayed by lengthy permit approval processes. These projects
feature a two-storey format and brought a combined 136,000 sqm of new supply to the
supply-constrained non-bonded market.
4Q11
Beijing: Industrial
Capital Value
Shanghai: Industrial
Non-bonded vacancy increases with few commitments in new completions
Soft demand leads to slight slowdown in non-bonded rental growth
Mitsui and Mitsubishi invest RMB 888 million into Beijing Properties
Financial Indices
150
140
Demand
Index
130
120
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Vacancy in the bonded market continued to decline in 3Q14, but the pace of take-up
slowed as the initial wave of excitement for the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ)
began to ease. Amazon announced plans to establish a presence in the FTZ, though
details have yet to be released.
Physical Indicators
700
Supply
600
Three new non-bonded projects were completed in Shanghai. Vailog and Blackstone
both completed two-storey projects in Songjiang, respectively adding 65,000 and
85,000 sqm to the market. Both projects had enquiries but no signed commitments.
GLP completed a three-storey project in Lingang, adding 200,000 sqm to this
submarket and with the pre-commitment rate below 10%.
500
Thousand sqm
400
300
200
Asset Performance
100
0
10
11
12
13
Completions
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Shanghai: Industrial
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Growth slowing
20
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Non-bonded rents increased 0.7% q-o-q on a like-for-like basis to RMB 1.27 per sqm
per day in 3Q14, slowing slightly as demand eased, vacancy rose, and landlords
became more flexible with incentives to attract tenants. Bonded rental growth slowed
to 1.6% q-o-q.
Despite a lack of tradable assets, interest from investors in Chinas logistics sector
remained upbeat. For example, Mitsui and Mitsubishi invested RMB 888 million into
Beijing Properties Holdings Group, who bought the Shanghais Phoenix Waigaoqiao
Bonded warehouse in 2013 and is actively pursuing additional developments across
China (including Shanghai). In addition, Ping An Real Estate and PAG signed a
strategic agreement with commercial developer Wuzhou to commit RMB 1.5 billion to
wholesale market and warehouse projects. While large amounts of money continue to
enter the logistics market, the implications for Shanghai are limited as many developers
are hesitant about entering the market due to this years restrictive new land policy.
12-Month Outlook
Looking forward, non-bonded vacancy should decline from the peak in 3Q14 as deals
under negotiation in recently completed Songjiang projects are finalised. However,
with nearly 700,000 sqm of new supply scheduled for the next 12 months, there is
considerable upside risk for market vacancy over the medium term. Large amounts
of supply and competition with nearby cities for limited demand will help to limit rental
growth in Shanghai to 34% in 2015.
Bonded vacancy will continue to decline while rents rise in the near term, though both
at a slower pace as the effect of the FTZ launch continues to fade.
Note: Shanghai Industrial refers to Shanghais high-quality modern warehouse market.
Tokyo: Industrial
Financial Indices
110
Demand
Index
Key performance indicators for August were weak, likely due to lingering effects of
the consumption tax increase and relatively weak recovery of the global economy.
Industrial production decreased 2% y-o-y, while exports decreased 1.3% y-o-y.
105
95
90
4Q10
Greater Tokyo continued to see significant additions to the development pipeline. New
projects announced in 3Q14 included Goodman Business Park Chiba New Town
(133,000 sqm, GFA), GLP Atsugi II (89,000 sqm, GFA) and Landport Kashiwa
Washinoya (50,000 sqm, GFA), all due in 2016.
Asset Performance
Rents in 3Q14 averaged JPY 6,034 per tsubo per month, increasing 1.2% q-o-q and
3% y-o-y. This marked the 13th straight quarterly rise and was likely due in part to a
temporary increase in demand related to the redevelopment of a major distribution
facility.
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Container Throughput
No new supply came on stream in the Tokyo Bay submarket in 3Q13. In Greater
Tokyo, ample supply continued, with the completions of Mitsui Fudosan Logistics Park
Kuki (75,000 sqm, GFA), D Project Kazo (20,000 sqm, GFA) and D Project Kuki IV
(19,000 sqm, GFA).
1.4
1.3
1.2
TEUs (Million)
F Plaza Tokyo Wing-M (61,000 sqm, GFA) and F Plaza Tokyo Wing-N (162,000 sqm,
GFA), scheduled for completion in 2018 and 2020, were added to the development
pipeline in the quarter.
100
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
2Q09
2Q10
2Q11
2Q12
TEUs shipped per quarter
2Q13
2Q14
Tokyo: Industrial
Notable investment transactions in the quarter included the GLP J-REIT acquisition
of GLP Tokyo II for JPY 36.1 billion or an NOI yield of 4.4%. In addition, in Greater
Tokyo, LaSalle Investment Management acquired three facilities referred to as Higashi
Ogishima Soko.
12-month Outlook
According to the economic outlook for Japan in 2015 by Oxford Economics, industrial
production is expected to grow 3.2% y-o-y, while exports are expected to increase
9.3% y-o-y. Under these conditions, demand for prime logistics space in the Tokyo Bay
submarket should continue to be robust, while new supply is limited. Therefore, rents
are expected to sustain a robust growth trend. However, in Greater Tokyo, a large
supply pipeline may soften the demand-supply balance and have an impact rents.
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents rising
13
^ gross, on NLA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Note: Tokyo Industrial refers to Tokyos Prime logistics market. Compiled in collaboration with Ichigo Real Estate Services Co., Ltd.
Capital Value
NA
Singapore: Industrial
High-value added industries supporting business parks demand
Stable activity from financial back office operations supports rents
Capital values witness marginal improvement while yields stable
Financial Indices
140
130
Demand
Index
120
110
100
90
80
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
250
25
200
20
150
15
100
10
50
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (net)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Vacancy Rate
Source: JLL
Singapore: Industrial
Rental Information
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
Percent
Thousand sqm
Physical Indicators
An estimated 10,900 sqm of business park space was completed in 3Q14. Based on
preliminary data obtained from the Building and Construction Authority of Singapore,
3Q14 witnessed the completion of Cleantech Two, Singapores first eco-business park
along Cleantech Loop located in the western part of the island.
Asset Performance
Gross rents of business parks increased slightly to SGD 3.87 per sq ft per month in
3Q14. Recently completed asset enhancement programs at some developments
provided support to rental values of business parks. Pre-commitments of business
parks in the pipeline have also been strong with a number of projects slated to be
completed in 2014-15 securing tenants for 90% of space. Capital values of business
parks increased slightly by 1% q-o-q to SGD 554 per sq ft in 3Q14, with investor
interest holding firm.
Industrial investment activity in 3Q14 kept healthy with a number of acquisitions by
REITs. Aperia Complex, a mixed-use development located within Kallang iPark was
bought by A-Reit at a transaction value of SGD 458 million. In addition, Viva Industrial
Trust acquired two industrial properties in the month of September. Jackson Square, a
light industrial complex within Toa Payoh was acquired at SGD 80 million, while
Jackson Design Hub along Tai Seng Street was purchased for SGD 31.5 million. With
capital values and rents holding up, yields have kept stable.
12-Month Outlook
Demand for business park space is likely to remain relatively stable despite the large
supply pipeline for 2014-15. High value-added industries are likely to continue to seek
space in Singapore and with healthy pre-commitment at upcoming projects, rents are
likely to be stable. Amongst supply in the pipeline, notable projects include Fusionpolis
Phase 2A (88,000 sqm) and Fusionopolis phase 5 (58,510 sqm).
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
Note: Singapore Industrial refers to Singapores island-wide Business Park market.
Sydney: Industrial
Financial Indices
130
120
Demand
The majority of the tenant activity was again centred on the Outer Central West
precinct, which accounted for 63% of the quarterly take-up (98,800 sqm). Apart from
the aforementioned Techtronic move, the most significant move came from logistics
firm Austpac, which leased 22,600 sqm in Yennora. Activity in the Outer North West
precinct remained positive with a further 36,600 sqm of gross take-up recorded. M3
Transports commitment to 25,800 sqm of space in Blacktown accounted for the
majority of this absorption.
In the nine months to September 2014, a total of 383,100 sqm of gross take-up has
been recorded across all Sydney industrial precincts. This year-to-date total is 67% of
the 2013 total gross take-up of 574,500 sqm.
110
Index
100
90
80
4Q10
Asset Performance
Improved business sentiment and enquiry levels boosted average prime net face rents
between 12% across most industrial precincts in 3Q14. The largest uplift in average
rents occurred in the Outer South West (2%) which has benefited from two years of
subdued supply which has placed downward pressure on vacancy levels.
Yields tightened in 3Q14 as investor demand for modern industrial assets with secure
tenancy covenants continued. Average prime yields in Sydney breached the 7.00%
threshold in the quarter with the yield range in the Outer Central West sharpening to
6.75%7.75%, on par with pre-GFC levels. Aggregate yields now range from 6.75%
8.50%.
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Capital Value Index
Physical Indicators
800
Supply
600
Thousand sqm
Completions fell 48% q-o-q to 66,800 sqm in 3Q14. Of the four projects that reached
practical completion, a design & construction development in Greystanes for Makita
was the largest (21,900 sqm). New developments for Grace Records Management in
Campbelltown (Outer South West) and Kuehne + Nagel in Eastern Creek (Outer
Central West) also added 17,700 sqm and 20,600 sqm respectively.
4Q11
4Q12
Rental Value Index
400
200
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (gross)
Future Supply
14F
Source: JLL
There were 17 transactions recorded in 3Q14, totalling AUD 645.5 million. Industrially
zoned property expected for residential conversion accounted for 73% of the transaction
totals as the Sydney high-density residential market continues to gain momentum.
Rental Information
12 Month Outlook
Rental Value^
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
Online retailing, both domestic and overseas, is likely to underwrite the demand for
distribution space in Sydney over the next 12 months. Rents in supply constrained
areas like South Sydney should record moderate growth, while rental growth in areas
further west should be less robust. Investment demand is likely to continue, with
several portfolios coming to market in the near future.
^ net, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
15F
Completions
Sydney: Industrial
Capital Value
Melbourne: Industrial
Transport and storage sector continues to drive demand
Rents stable across all precincts
Prime grade industrial prices reach record high
Financial Indices
110
Demand
Index
105
100
95
90
4Q10
4Q11
4Q12
4Q13
4Q14
4Q15
Supply
New construction activity remains buoyant with 416,825 sqm completed across 27
schemes over the first three quarters of 2014. Of the developments completed this
year, approximately 80% was pre-committed. Melbourne continues to boast a high
number of speculatively developed projects, with approximately 115,000 sqm under
construction. New supply in 2014 is expected to exceed 2013 totals with a further
189,575 sqm anticipated to come on line in the final quarter.
Physical Indicators
800
Asset Performance
The investment market has been buoyant throughout 2014. As at YTD September
2014, sales volumes are only 12% behind the full year 2013 total of AUD 694.3 million.
The most notable transactions in 3Q14 was the AUD 44 million sale of the Fastline
facility at Laverton North from Goodman to Charter Hall.
Thousand sqm
600
400
200
10
11
12
13
Take-Up (gross)
Future Supply
14F
15F
Completions
Source: JLL
Melbourne: Industrial
Leasing activity was below trend in 3Q14 with 115,00 sqm of gross take-up recorded.
Leasing activity of existing space remains low with 73% of demand expressed through
pre-commitment and design and construct (D&C) activity. As at YTD September 2014,
427,700 sqm of gross take-up has been recorded, 12.6% behind the equivalent period
last year. The transport and storage sector continues to drive demand, accounting for
65% of take-up as at YTD September 2014. Notable transactions in 3Q14 included
TNT (38,000 sqm), Jetport (21,000 sqm) and Stall Logistics (15,000 sqm).
Rental Information
Rental Value^
AUD 73 psm pa
Stage in Cycle
Rents stable
16
The weight of capital from large and mid-tier domestic funds resulted in industrial asset
pricing reaching new benchmark levels. Tightening of 50 basis points occurred in the
West and South East precincts, while the North and City Fringe recorded 25 basis
points of tightening, shifting the broader Melbourne industrial prime yield band to
7.00%8.25%.
Rents were stable cross all precincts in 3Q14. Land values for an average standard
serviced allotment (2,000 sqm) during the quarter were also unchanged.
12 Month Outlook
Notable improvements in industrial demand drivers over the past nine months have
seen occupier demand gain momentum. The outlook appears positive based upon key
drivers of occupier demand: population growth, retail trade, dwelling investment and
import volumes. Melbourne continues to boast high levels of construction activity. In
2014, Melbourne is likely to see more stock complete than in Sydney for the first time
since 2006. Melbourne also has the highest concentration of speculative construction.
However, softer leasing conditions both in terms of face rental growth and average
market incentives will remain a key theme over the medium term.
^ net, on GFA
12-Month Outlook
Rental Value
Capital Value
NA
Note: Melbourne Industrial refers to Melbournes industrial market (all grades).
3,000
70
60
2,500
50
2,000
40
1,500
30
1,000
20
500
10
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Feb 10
Aug 11
RevPAR
No. of rooms
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Asset Performance
As at YTD August 2014, occupancy for luxury hotels in Hong Kong improved by
2.4 percentage points y-o-y to 77.8%, while Average Daily Rate (ADR) increased by
5% y-o-y from HKD 3,446 to HKD 3,619. As a result, Revenue per Available Room
(RevPAR) registered a strong 8.4% y-o-y growth to HKD 2,817. The moving annual
average in RevPAR terms was registered at HKD 2,882 in August 2014, driven by
robust occupancy and ADR growth.
Aug 10
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Aug 14
Supply
As at August 2014, Hong Kong has 235 hotels comprising 71,446 rooms. By the end of
2014, there are expected to be 255 hotels with about 73,547 rooms, a y-o-y increase
of 5% in hotel room supply. Most of the new hotels are independently operated with
relatively small room inventory (below 150 rooms). New internationally-branded hotel
supply remains limited with the exception of the 548-room Dorsett Regency in Kwai
Chung (opened in March 2014) and the anticipated opening of the 145-room Holiday
Inn Express in Mongkok in 4Q14.
80
Feb 09
Following the Hong Kong Tourism Boards efforts to establish Hong Kong as Asias
cruise hub, cruise passengers have emerged as a growing market supporting the
leisure segment, with the opening of the HKD 8.2 billion Kai Tak Cruise Terminal in
2013. The terminal has since received 28 cruise liners and more than 100,000
passengers in its first year of operation. The recent opening of its second berth in
September 2014 will further increase its handling capacity to accommodate up to
8,400 cruise passengers simultaneously. Hong Kongs tourism industry will benefit
strongly from the citys strategic location which serves as a key gateway to other cruise
destinations in North and East Asia, such as Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. On a
longer term, the government aims to diversify its tourism products and enhance the
citys attractiveness to tourists from different market segments.
90
3,500
Aug 09
As at YTD August 2014, visitor arrivals continued to rise, recording a 12.3% increase
from the same period last year. This is mainly driven by its leading source market,
Mainland China, which registered a 15.5% y-o-y growth. Notably, inbound visitation
figures from South Korea and Singapore have also improved by 19.6% and 14.9%
y-o-y respectively.
4,000
Occupancy (%)
Demand
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Note: Hong Kong Hotels refers to Hong Kongs Luxury hotel market.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Rising
Occupancy
ADR
12-Month Outlook
Beijing: Hotels
International visitor arrivals to Beijing trend lower
Grand Mercure DongCheng and Beijing Wangfujing Renaissance Hotel open
RevPAR registers a slight decrease to RMB 657
1,600
80
1,400
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Feb 14
Aug 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
0
Aug 09
Occupancy (%)
ADR/RevPAR (RMB)
RevPAR
During 3Q14, the 202-room Grand Mercure DongCheng and the 329-room Beijing
Wangfujing Renaissance Hotel opened, adding 531 rooms to the accommodation
stock of internationally-branded hotels. Most of the upcoming hotel supply is scheduled
to enter the market in the final quarter of 2014. The anticipated openings include the
279-room Rosewood Beijing, the 320-room InterContinental Beijing City Centre, the
595-room Kempinski Beijing and the 340-room W Hotel Beijing.
3,000
2,500
Asset Performance
2,000
No. of rooms
Based on the latest statistics from Beijing Statistics Bureau, international visitor arrivals
to Beijing continue to decline as at YTD August 2014, decreasing by 6.1% y-o-y to
2.7 million. The top three source markets to Beijing, namely the USA, South Korea and
Japan recorded y-o-y decreases of 2.7%, 2% and 0.3% respectively. Concerns over
air pollution in Beijing continue to contribute to the decline in international visitor
arrivals. However, visitor arrivals from Taiwan showed an upward trend as at YTD
August 2014 partly due to promotions carried out by the tourism board. Similarly,
domestic visitor arrivals showed a healthy increase of 6.2% y-o-y to 110 million as at
YTD June 2014.
Supply
The Average Daily Rate (ADR) of upscale hotels in Beijing continued to register a
decline, falling by 7% y-o-y to RMB 959, while occupancy levels increased by 4.6
percentage points y-o-y to 68.5% as at YTD August 2014. Nonetheless, there is little
change in the Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR), with only a marginal decrease
of 0.4% from the previous year to RMB 657.
1,500
1,000
500
0
Demand
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
Source: JLL
14F
15F
Future Supply
In terms of moving annual average, ADR continues to reflect a gradual decline from
RMB 1,027 in August 2013 to RMB 967 in August 2014, while occupancy levels show
a positive trend from 64.8% to 68.3% during the same period of time.
12-Month Outlook
Beijing: Hotels
JLL estimates that 1,534 rooms from four hotels will be added to the market over the
remainder of 2014. This is likely to result in a more competitive market with a large
pipeline of new inventory anticipated in 2015. On the other hand, the restrictions and
regulations on government consumption continue, especially on the food and
beverage sector in luxury hotels. However, it is believed that through a series of
adjustments of operation strategies, the hotel market is expected to develop a more
efficient model of operation. It is also expected that demand will remain strong in
Beijing with support from the Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions
(MICE) sector. Beijing has attracted many companies to establish headquarters and is
a strategic gateway to Mainland China. The week long National Day holiday in October
2014 is typically a peak period for domestic tourism and is likely to provide an uplift in
hotel trading performances.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Stable
Occupancy
ADR
Note: Beijing Hotels refers to Beijings Upscale hotel market.
Shanghai: Hotels
Supply
There were no major hotel openings in 3Q14. In 1H14, 1,203 rooms were added to the
internationally-branded hotel supply in Shanghai. The major openings include the
313-room Crowne Plaza Noah Square, the 338-room Pullman Shanghai South and the
235-room Hyatt Regency Chongming. Although there was an anticipated large pipeline
of supply expected to enter the accommodation market in 2014, many have been
delayed or cancelled as commonly observed amongst development projects in
Mainland China. We expect some hotels to open as planned during 4Q14, including
the Holiday Inn Nanxiang, Minhang Marriott and Changfeng Courtyard, with a total of
902 rooms.
Asset Performance
Although the Average Daily Rate (ADR) for upscale hotels in Shanghai declined by
2.2% y-o-y to RMB 1,032, occupancy levels have increased significantly by 6 percentage
points to 64% as at YTD August 2014. As a result, Revenue per Available Room
(RevPAR) improved by 7.8% y-o-y to RMB 660. Sentiment of hotel managements
have been positive about demand growth for Shanghai which continues to be
supported by corporate and Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions
demand to the city.
On a moving annual average basis, RevPAR has been rising steadily to RMB 666 in
August 2014.
70
1,200
60
1,000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
200
10
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Feb 14
Aug 13
Feb 13
Aug 12
Feb 12
Aug 11
0
Feb 11
Aug 14
ADR/RevPAR (RMB)
1,400
Occupancy (%)
Demand
RevPAR
No. of rooms
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Shanghais favourable location as the gateway to the greater Yangtze River Delta
along with the development of the Hongqiao CBD should continue to boost greater
travel demand to the city. The Shanghai government has stepped up its efforts to
attract more multinational companies to set up their regional headquarters through
financial incentives, and this is expected to lead to potentially more corporate demand
ahead. Nevertheless, there appears to be limited traction with the Shanghai Pilot Free
Trade Zone over the past year, and many corporates are still adopting a wait-and-see
stance before investing. The anticipated opening of Shanghai Disneyland in 2015 is
expected to benefit the tourism industry and boost visitor arrivals and hotel
development. If all hotel projects materialise, there will be 5,000 new rooms in 2015
and this is likely to be another substantial influx of hotels in Shanghai after the World
Expo. Although demand growth is anticipated to be positive, the significant addition of
new supply is likely to place pressure on the marketwide hotel trading performance.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Stable
Occupancy
ADR
Shanghai: Hotels
12-Month Outlook
Tokyo: Hotels
Occupancy remains above 80%, the highest level in seven years
No major four or five-star hotel openings in 3Q14
ADR growth is likely to drive RevPAR in short term
90
80
70
60
30,000
50
40
20,000
30
20
10,000
10
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Aug 09
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Aug 14
0
Feb 09
Occupancy (%)
ADR/RevPAR (JPY)
40,000
RevPAR
Demand
International visitor arrivals to Japan recorded a y-o-y increase of 25.8% to 8.6 million
as at YTD August 2014. This can be attributed to a significant growth in visitors arriving
from Mainland China and Taiwan, which registered a y-o-y increase of 84% and 29.9%
respectively. Visitor arrivals from Thailand and Malaysia also registered a robust growth
of 57.5% and 54.0% y-o-y respectively, partly due to the deregulation of tourism visas
in place since July 2013.
Domestic accommodation demand continues to witness a strong recovery both in
business and leisure travel since the earthquake in March 2011. A weakening
Japanese Yen and the increase in low cost carriers have also boosted domestic travel.
Supply
There were no major hotel openings in 3Q14. Over the balance of 2014, there is only
one five-star hotel opening in the pipeline. The 80-room Aman Tokyo, set to be the
most luxurious hotel in Tokyo, is scheduled to open by end-2014. The 329-room
Millennium Mitsui Garden Ginza Tokyo, the first Millennium branded hotel in Japan and
co-branded with Mitsui Garden Hotels, a major limited-services hotel operator in
Japan, is scheduled to open in December 2014. The Millennium Mitsui Garden Ginza
Tokyo will be positioned as a limited-service hotel.
No. of rooms
400
Asset Performance
300
200
100
0
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
Source: JLL
14F
15F
Future Supply
Tokyo: Hotels
The successful bid to host the 2020 Olympic Games is expected to stimulate demand
and underpin growth in Tokyos room supply over the next few years. As new projects
are being developed, existing hotels are likely to benefit from increasing ADR.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Rising
Occupancy
ADR
Note: Tokyo Hotels refers to Tokyos Luxury hotel market.
Singapore: Hotels
In September 2014, Singapore hosted the Formula One Grand Prix for the seventh
time. Based on preliminary estimates, the annual event was expected to draw more
than 100,000 spectators of which almost half is estimated to be overseas visitors.
Supply
In 3Q14, three new hotel projects were completed, adding 833 rooms to the hotel
stock. The 502-room Hotel Jen Orchardgateway is the first Hotel Jen property to be
launched worldwide by the Shangri-La Group. The new hotel brand replaces Traders
and caters to evolving travel trends. The hotel operator has also rebranded the existing
Traders Hotel Singapore. The other major opening is the 243-room One Farrer Hotel
and Spa in the Little India heritage district. As at 3Q14, 1,754 rooms have been added
to the Singapores accommodation market in 2014.
Asset Performance
As at YTD August 2014, occupancy levels declined slightly by 0.4 percentage points to
80.1%, while the Average Daily Rate (ADR) increased by 3.6% to SGD 403 as
compared to the same period in the previous year. As a result, Revenue per Available
Room (RevPAR) gained 3% y-o-y to reach SGD 323. As at August 2014, RevPAR of
luxury hotels registered SGD 343 on a moving annual average basis, underpinned by
gradual but steady growth in both occupancy levels and ADR.
90
450
80
400
70
350
60
300
50
250
40
200
30
150
20
100
10
0
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Aug 14
ADR/RevPAR (SGD)
As at YTD July 2014, international visitor arrivals to Singapore declined by 2.5% y-o-y,
based on statistics released by the Singapore Tourism Board (STB). This was due to a
significant decrease of 29.4% y-o-y in Mainland Chinese visitors, the second largest
source market. This was mainly attributable to new tourism laws in Mainland China
which clamped down on hidden fees from tour operators as well as tourists avoiding
Southeast Asia due to the recent chain of events including the disappearance of
the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, political tensions in Thailand and kidnappings in
Sabah. Nevertheless, major source markets such as Indonesia, Hong Kong and South
Korea continued to show healthy growth.
500
Occupancy (%)
Demand
RevPAR
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
While there is a decline in Mainland Chinese visitor arrivals, their average length of
stay has increased from 2.7 days in the first half of 2013 to 4.2 days in 2014. In
addition, Mainland Chinese tourists have also overtaken Indonesia as the highest
contributors in tourism receipts. These positive trends are in line with STBs yield-driven
strategy and target of quality tourism.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Stable
Occupancy
ADR
Singapore: Hotels
Looking ahead, occupancy levels in Singapores hotel sector are likely to be stable and
ADR growth is expected to remain modest with competition arising from the entry of
large midscale and economy hotels in 2014. Nevertheless, travel demand is expected
to remain strong with the growth of externally-oriented sectors such as finance,
insurance and wholesale trade, along with the modest pick-up in the global economy.
Bangkok: Hotels
International arrivals to Bangkok continue to decline
No major hotel openings in 3Q14
RevPAR shows a significant decline of 29% y-o-y
7,000
80
6,000
70
60
5,000
50
4,000
40
3,000
30
2,000
20
1,000
10
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-10
Aug-10
0
Aug-09
0
Feb-09
Occupancy (%)
RevPAR
According to the latest statistics from Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), total
international visitor arrivals have experienced a decline of 18.2% to 9.5 million as at
YTD August 2014 as compared to the same period in 2013, due to political
demonstrations and the military coup during the first half of the year.
In the first eight months of 2014, visitor arrivals from all major source markets declined.
Following the political upheaval, the number of Mainland Chinese tourists, the largest
source market to Bangkok, declined significantly by 31.3%, relative to the same period
in 2013. There was a significant decline in Asian travellers to Bangkok, particularly
Mainland Chinese, Japanese and Korean visitors due to their sensitivity towards
political issues in 1H14. Mainland China, Japan and Russia remained the three largest
source markets as at YTD August 2014, accounting for 17.2%, 7.8% and 5.9% of total
international visitor arrivals respectively.
Supply
There were no major hotel openings in Bangkok in 3Q14. Approximately 945 rooms will
be added to the Bangkok market in 4Q14 if all projects materialise. The majority of new
branded supply is in the upscale segment, accounting for 67.3% of total new room
stock. Future hotel openings in 4Q14 include the 214-room Le Meridien Suvarnabhumi
Golf Resort and Spa and the 250-room Amara Bangkok.
5,000
4,000
No. of rooms
Demand
3,000
Asset Performance
2,000
1,000
0
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
Source: JLL
14F
15F
Future Supply
Trading performance across the Bangkok hotel market in the first eight months of 2014
witnessed a significant decline with a drop in occupancy levels across all hotel sectors
relative to the same period in 2013, on the back of a decline in the number of foreign
visitor arrivals. Although Average Daily Rate (ADR) in the luxury hotel segment
recorded a modest growth of 1.1% y-o-y to THB 5,763, occupancy declined by
20.2 percentage points to 47.6% as at YTD August 2014. As a result, Revenue per
Available Room (RevPAR) experienced a significant drop of 29% y-o-y to THB 2,743
for the same period.
In terms of moving annual average, ADR continued to be stable whilst RevPAR has
shown a persistent decline since December 2013, reaching THB 3,149 in August 2014
owing to the dip in occupancy.
12-Month Outlook
Bangkok: Hotels
Bangkok was recently displaced as the worlds top destination city in the 2014
MasterCard Global Destination Cities Index, replaced by London. However, the city
remains the top destination within Asia Pacific. Overall, we expect hotel trading
performance in Bangkok to rebound in the last quarter of 2014, albeit still below levels
recorded in 2013. Thailand has been a resilient market during previous political
uncertainties and we expect tourism arrivals to recover in 2015.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Rising
Occupancy
ADR
Note: Bangkok Hotels refer to Bangkok Luxury hotel market.
Supply
In 3Q14, there were no new hotel openings. In the first nine months of 2014,
approximately 1,030 rooms have opened in Kuala Lumpur comprising midscale hotels
located in suburban areas. From 2015 to 2018, JLL forecasts an estimated 4,000
rooms to enter the market. This comprises mostly of upscale and luxury hotels. Some
of the notable international hotel brands entering the market in the next few years
include St. Regis, Regent, W Hotel, Four Seasons, Clermont, Fairmont, Banyan Tree,
Harrods, Swissotel and Kempinski, all of which currently do not have a presence in
Kuala Lumpur.
Asset Performance
As at YTD August 2014, occupancy remained stable at 73.6% while Average Daily
Rate (ADR) showed an increase of 4.8% y-o-y to MYR 494. Revenue per Available
Room (RevPAR) reflected an increase of 5.1% to MYR 363, driven entirely by the
increase in rate. Trading performance of hotels in Kuala Lumpur are largely dependent
on corporate and Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions (MICE) demand
which has remained stable as reflected by the healthy growth in visitor arrivals of major
source markets in 1H14. The decline in Mainland Chinese visitors has not had much of
an impact on luxury and upscale hotel trading performance as these are mostly leisure
visitors who stay at midscale and economy hotels. On a moving annual average
basis, occupancy and ADR of hotels remain stable, resulting in a RevPAR of MYR 338
in August 2014.
90
80
400
70
60
300
50
40
200
30
20
100
10
0
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Feb 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
Aug 09
Aug 14
ADR/RevPAR (MYR)
Latest statistics from Tourism Malaysia show that international visitor arrivals to
Malaysia have improved, recording a 10% y-o-y increase to 11.5 million as at YTD
May 2014. This is surprising with the negativity surrounding the countrys national
airline carrier and the kidnapping incidents in Sabah. Most source markets to Malaysia
have shown an increase apart from Mainland China and Brunei. Singapore and
Indonesia remain the top two source markets to Malaysia, comprising 50.3% and 9.7%
of total international visitor arrivals respectively. However, we note that there was a
5% y-o-y decline in Singaporean visitors to Johor Bahru after a hike in toll fees for
Singapore vehicles crossing the border.
500
Occupancy (%)
Demand
RevPAR
900
600
300
0
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
Note: Kuala Lumpur Hotels refers to Kuala Lumpurs Luxury and Upscale hotel market.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Rising
Occupancy
ADR
12-Month Outlook
Jakarta: Hotels
Significant increase from its largest source market, Malaysia
Additions to supply comprise economy and midscale hotels
Significant improvement in ADR in Indonesian Rupiah terms
90
180
80
70
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Feb 14
Aug 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
0
Aug 10
10
0
Feb 09
20
Aug 09
40
20
Occupancy (%)
ADR/RevPAR (USD)
160
RevPAR
International visitor arrivals to Jakarta grew 2.8% y-o-y to 1.3 million as at YTD July
2014. The slower growth was due to the presidential elections which took place earlier
in the year. The largest source market, Malaysia, recorded a significant 9.2% y-o-y
growth due to its close proximity and the facilitation of low cost carrier flight
connectivity between four Malaysian cities and Jakarta. The development of Shariah
tourism has also supported the increase in tourists from Middle Eastern countries, with
Saudi Arabia registering a 43.4% y-o-y increase.
The increase in flight connectivity between Jakarta and major gateway cities will
continue to boost visitation. Garuda Indonesia recently introduced direct flights five
times weekly between Jakarta and Amsterdam in May 2014, with the same flight
expanding its connection to London in September 2014, providing greater accessibility
for European travellers to Jakarta and beyond.
Supply
2,000
In 3Q14, five new hotel developments were completed, adding 1,068 rooms to the
hotel stock. Mostly targeting the economy and midscale segments, these include the
297-room Holiday Inn Express Jakarta Pluit Citigate, the 145-room Swiss-Belinn
Airport Jakarta, the 253-room ibis Styles Jakarta Airport, the 210-room ibis Styles
Mangga Dua Square and the 163-room Hotel Mercure Jakarta Sabang. As at 3Q14,
Jakartas accommodation market comprised approximately 32,745 rooms. Hotels in
the pipeline for the rest of 2014 are also predominantly in the economy and midscale
segments. There are no new upscale and luxury hotels opening this year.
1,000
Asset Performance
5,000
4,000
No. of rooms
Demand
3,000
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
Source: JLL
14F
15F
Future Supply
As at YTD August 2014, occupancy declined by 1.3 percentage points to 62.8% while
Average Daily Rates (ADR) fell 2.7% y-o-y to USD 181. The decline in ADR in
US Dollar terms can be attributed to the depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah.
Comparatively, ADR showed a significant improvement of 14.4% to IDR 2.1 million
resulting in Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) growth of 12% to IDR 1.3 million. In
terms of moving annual average, RevPAR levels have been relatively stable, achieving
levels above USD 110 in the past twelve months.
12-Month Outlook
Jakarta: Hotels
Although Jakarta and Indonesia as a whole experienced a volatile period in 1H14 with
the presidential elections and a significant depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah, the
economic situation has since improved and a cautious optimism has returned to the
country. The outlook for the domestic economy is relatively positive with structural and
economic reforms in place.
As the capital city, Jakarta should benefit strongly from the growth in both domestic
and international visitor arrivals. The boost in infrastructure investment and airport
expansion also bode well for Jakarta to handle the anticipated growth in tourism and
corporate travel demand. Therefore, hotel trading performance in Jakarta is likely to
remain stable in light of the entry of economy and midscale hotels in 2014.
12-Month Outlook
RevPAR
Stable
Occupancy
ADR
Note: Jakarta Hotels refers to Jakartas Upscale hotel market.
Sydney: Hotels
90
200
70
150
60
50
100
40
30
20
10
ADR
Occupancy (%)
Feb 14
Aug 14
Feb 13
Aug 13
Feb 12
Aug 12
Feb 11
Aug 11
Feb 10
Aug 10
Feb 09
RevPAR
Asset Performance
400
No. of rooms
As at YTD August 2014, occupancy levels increased 1.3% y-o-y to 86.8% while
average daily rate (ADR) rose 4% to AUD 222. As a result, RevPAR grew by 5.7%
y-o-y to AUD 192. Sydneys accommodation market has continued to trade at strong
levels which has been boosted by improving corporate demand, as well as strong
leisure, cruise and VFR business.
80
50
Supply
There were no new hotel openings during 3Q14.
100
Aug 09
A total of 43 million visitor nights were spent in Sydney Tourism Region (city and
surrounds) as at YTD June 2014, representing an increase of 5.6% compared to the
same period in 2013. Domestic visitor nights increased 12.9% y-o-y to 11.7 million and
international nights by 3.2% to 31.3 million. Increases were most evident in the
domestic and international visiting friends and relatives segments, with international
holiday travel also rising.
250
Occupancy (%)
Demand
ADR/RevPAR (AUD)
300
200
100
0
10
11
12
13
Additions to Supply
14F
15F
Future Supply
Source: JLL
12-Month Outlook
Note: Sydney Hotels refers to all grades of accommodation and includes both hotels and serviced apartments.
RevPAR
Rising
Occupancy
ADR
Sydney: Hotels
The closure of the Sydney Convention & Exhibition Centre in late 2013 has had only
a small impact on the overall market with a number of five-star hotels enjoying
considerable demand-uplift throughout the year. Notwithstanding, an element of
caution still prevails given the lack of blockbuster events through the winter months.
This has resulted in a slight softening through the mid part of the year but with a strong
year end currently anticipated.
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