Gravity Model Exercise: The Pelican Problem

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GEOG-210: Cultural Geography

The Importance of the Spatial Perspective:
An Application of the Gravity Model in Political Decision Making
Christopher E. Cottrell, Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science & Geography
Southern University, Baton Rouge Louisiana

Name____Nolita R. Pore________/Class ___TR__/Time___9-10:20____________

THE SCENARIO:
Having graduated from beloved Southern University with degree in hand, hope in your
heart, and student loan promissory notes swelling your pockets, you have managed to
land a cushy research and consultant position within the administration of the current
governor of the Great State of Louisiana (and Southern University alumnus):
Buford Tiberius Boudin. Your salary is $100,000/year (with perks of course)!
However, it is an election year; and, Governor Buford T. Boudin will be running for reelection. It has been brought to Governor Boudins attention by the good folks at the
Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, that the brown pelican (the state bird) is
experiencing difficulty in terms of their offspring surviving in the State of Louisiana.
In short, lethal interactions between the newborn brown pelicans and PVC pipe
manufacturing industrial sites, (which were brought to the state in fulfillment of a
campaign promise to bring jobs to the state, made by Governor Boudin during the
previous gubernatorial election) which are releasing a toxin into the environment, may be
significantly contributing to the brown pelicans extinction.
Thanks to the relentless and caustic commentary published on the renegade, political
Internet website www.BoudinHasGotToGeaux.com, which has been mercilessly
pounding the Boudin administrations apparent lack of concern for the environment and
the welfare of the state bird, all of the latest election polls show Boudins approval rating
dropping from 56% to 42%. This trend will continue until such time when Governor
Boudin can demonstrate to the voters at his next scheduled press briefing (next
class period) that his administration has resolved this problem. The Governor has
charged you with saving his administration. Time to earn your pay!

YOUR MISSION (should you choose to accept it)

Gravity Model Exercise: The Pelican Problem

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If you wish to retain your consultant position, as well as maintain your marvelous
lifestyle featuring a fabulous spouse, 2.5 kids in the best schools, picket fence around a
beautiful home in the country, etc.., then you must craft a solution to the pelican problem,
and in the process save Buford Ts re-election bid and protect the sanctity of Southern
University alumni honor everywhere! Use the following methodology to craft your
solution:
1. Determine if the pelicans are indeed in danger of extinction by using the gravity
model to calculate the estimated number of lethal interactions. The pelicans are
deemed to be in danger of extinction if I is greater than 1088.
2. If the pelicans are indeed in danger, develop a solution to the problem by
changing the value of the variables of the gravity model from the data given
below (p1,p2, d, and beta). Be able to justify what you do to the variables!
3. Avoid incurring the political wrath of interest groups with a stake in this crisis,
or Buford T. will suffer further drops in his approval rating.
Use this form of the gravity model,

pp

d
1

and calculate the estimated number of lethal interactions between the newborn brown
pelicans and the industrial sites using the following data:
p1 = 725 // The expected number of newborn brown pelicans to be added to the current
pelican population post mating season.
p2 = 75 // The number of industrial sites emitting trimethylcholorobenzene into the
environment (the chemical is a waste byproduct of the PVC pipe manufacturing process).
d = 32.65 miles // The average distance between p1 and p2.
.7167 // The amount of accessibility between p1 & p2.
This figure represents the delivery of the toxic chemical into the air, soil, and water, and the ease of interaction.

Put your calculated estimate of I here __2,323.69___________

Political Interest Group Issues To Account For In Your Solution

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Louisiana Society for the Protection of Wildlife (LSFPW)

State & Federal wildlife zoogeographers, zoologists, and biologists say that 1088
lethal interactions with the newborn pelicans is the BARE MINIMUM allowable, in
order for the species to survive AND keep the State of Louisiana from violating the
Endangered Species Act of 1973.
The brown pelican is the state bird; therefore, LSFPW will withdraw their campaign
endorsement and contribution ($800,456) as well as encourage votes for the
opposition, if the pelican is not saved.
Since the pelicans are federally protected (and the state bird!), they cannot be
relocated elsewhere in the state nor out of the state.
National Industrial Site Workers Union, (NISWU) Louisiana Chapter, # 666
Each industrial site employs 3500 people. ALL are members of NISWU.
The sites pump $500,000,000 into the Louisiana economy.
We WILL NOT tolerate any loss of jobs to union members in Louisiana, caused by
reducing the number of industrial sites, in order to save a bunch of lousy pelicans!
Edwina Hacker, National President, NISWU.
NISWU will withdraw their endorsement and Boudin campaign contribution of
$5,200,000 if that happens (see above).
Any expenditure cost incurred as a result of finding ways to reduce the amount of
pollution generated, will result in an increased cost in production, and therefore cause
layoffs.
NISWU has secret contacts in the federal government that can make that pesky
violation of the Environmental Protection Act of 1973 business go awayfor a
financial and political price.
Louisianians for Good Government (LFGG)
Violation of the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (meaning, failing to get "I" at or
below 1088), will result in a fine levied by the Federal Government = $2,800,000
which the taxpayers will have to pay from the EDUCATION and HEALTH CARE
portion of the state budget. If that happens, LFGG will withdraw their endorsement
of Boudins campaign.
LFGG does not tolerate candidates who engage in backroom financial and political
deals.
LFGG represents the voting interests of 42% of registered voters.

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National Association for the Prevention of Environmental Injustice (NAPEI)

Any attempt to move 45 of the 75 industrial sites to ANY of the new selected sites
(see map below) as shown on the planning report submitted to the United States
Department of Justice, Civil Rights Division, for approval, will result in placing them
in very close proximity to people of a low socio-economic status and ethnic
distinctiveness.

d = 3 2 .6 5 m iles

P e lic a n H a b ita t

U pper
S o c io - E c o n o m ic
A rea

L o w S o c io - E c o n o m ic
A re a

H isto r ic al S ite A r e a

Legend
= C u r r e n t I n d u s t r ia l S it e L o c a t io n
= P r o p o s e d I n d u s t r i a l S i t e R e - lo c a t io n .
* E a c h c ir c le r e p r e s e n t s 1 5 i n d u s t r ia l s it e s .

Therefore, NAPEI will seek a federal injunction to halt such action and will initiate a
nationwide cultural boycott of Louisiana, where people will be discouraged from
coming to Mardi Gras, Jazzfest, Essence Festival, etc.. as well as not purchase
Louisiana cultural export products (Tabasco, Tony Chacheres, Zatarains, music, etc..).

Louisiana Ancient and Civil War Heritage Preservation Society (LACWHS)

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Any attempt to move 45 of the 75 industrial sites to ANY of the new selected sites
(see map above) as shown on the planning report, will endanger ancient NativeAmerican sites as well as damage nearby Civil War battlefields and cemeteries,
according to LACWHS.

LACWHS represents the voting interests of 37% of registered voters.

Based on LACWHS analysis and the National Park Service (NPS), Department of
the Interior, investigation, the federal government will levy a penalty of $1,200,000
on the State of Louisiana, if this plan is implemented.

Louisiana Coalition of Teachers and University Professors (LCTUP)

If this crisis results in the EDUCATION portion of the state budget being slashed,
they will withdraw their endorsement.
If the EDUCATION portion of the budget is slashed, the teachers will stage a
statewide walkout, until which time the budget is restored.
Southern Association of Health Care Providers (SAHCP)
If the HEALTH CARE portion of the budget is slashed, critical hospitals in the rural
and the low socio-economic areas of the state will be closed.
If that happens, medical geographers, epidemiologists, and biostatiticians project that
viral infections will increase statewide by 24%. and basic health care will be out of
reach for 400,000 people.
They point out that the loss of health care facilities because of this crisis, will place
the state in a vulnerable position relative to homeland defense directives.
The trimethylcholorobenzene emitted by the industrial sites not only is lethal to
newborn pelicans, but causes acute reproductive damage to adults when frequently
exposed to it, as well as severe brain damage to unborn children.
Assignment Instructions:
1. Write your solution to the problem in the 3rd person. Show ALL calculations.
2. Attach your NEATLY worked out solution to this problem to this handout.
3. Be prepared to defend your solution orally in class. This will be part of your grade on
this assignment!