Edition
2015
5 logs
(3.5 inch diameter,
16 inch length)
1 gallon
gasoline
13,000
AA batteries
To help compare energy content, weve converted some sources of energy used today
to one of mankinds earliest forms of energy: wood logs used as fuel for fire.
34 logs
Daily U.S. energy
demand per person
in 2010
7 logs
Household
use
4 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
Then
6 logs
Personal
transportation
Personal mobility
Lighting for
cities is provided
by one of the
most convenient
energy types
electricity.
Now
It used to take
25 days to travel
2,000 miles by
stagecoach.
Then
Now
Now
6 logs
Commercial
buildings
Productive workspaces
Before the late
19th century, office
buildings generally
did not exceed five
stories because of
construction costs and
the lack of elevators.
Then
Steel frame
construction,
elevators, electric
lighting and air
conditioning enabled
taller buildings, which
maximized real estate.
4 logs
Commercial
transportation
Modern insulation,
lighting and
temperature
control have
greatly improved
commercial building
energy-efficiency.
Now
Then
The invention of
steam-powered
ships allowed the
same trip to be
made in two weeks.
11 logs
Industrial
use
Modern manufacturing
Modern aircraft
and jet fuel make
flights across the
Atlantic faster,
taking less than
8 hours.
Now
Prior to the
Industrial
Revolution, factory
locations were
near fast-flowing
streams to use
water power.
Then
The invention of
the steam engine
helped accelerate
the Industrial
Revolution and the
demand for coal.
Modern
manufacturing
equipment now
requires energy
dense fuels like
natural gas and
electricity.
Now5
6 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
Advances in technology have unlocked oil and natural gas from shale
and other tight rock formations in states across the country, including
Pennsylvania, Texas and North Dakota. With the addition of other new
sources, such as Canadian oil sands and production from the deepwater
Gulf of Mexico, there has been a dramatic increase in U.S. energy supply,
and further growth is projected.
But while supply is rising, Americas energy demand is not. U.S. petroleum
demand actually is falling because the country is using energy more
efficiently in its cars and elsewhere. The country can grow its economy and
maintain living standards with less energy.
This special edition of The Outlook for Energy takes a closer look at these
sea changes in U.S. energy, and what it means for the United States and
the world from now through 2040.
8
Technology advances have
enabled a rapid rise in oil and gas
production in states across the U.S.
4
30%
Rise in U.S. unconventional
gas production from
2010 to 2013
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1H14
8 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
As the United States produces more of its own oil, its importing a lot less.
The share of U.S. liquid fuels consumption met by net imports fell to
an average of 33 percent in 2013, down from more than 60 percent in 2005.
The EIA expects that share to hit 20 percent in 2016 the lowest level
since 1968.
The Outlook projects that this energy renaissance will continue for years
to come.
2014
2005
Roots of a renaissance
By 2040, U.S. production of crude and other liquids is projected to rise to
over 15 MBD about a 70 percent increase from 2010. North America
as a whole will see a similar growth rate through 2040, reaching
26 MBD more than twice the current production of Saudi Arabia.
Given the integration of energy infrastructure and trade between the U.S.,
Canada and Mexico, North America is often considered as a single energy
production region.
Similar growth rates are expected for natural gas. North American natural
gas production is projected to rise by about 75 percent, to over 140 billion
cubic feet per day (BCFD) by 2040.
BCFD
MBDOE
30
160
Biofuels
Other
25
140
120
NGLs
20
100
15
Oil sands
10
Tight oil
Deepwater
Conventional C&C
80
Unconventional
60
40
20
Conventional
0
2000
2020
10 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
2040
2000
2020
2040
All of the growth in North American oil and gas production will come
from emerging sources energy that technology has only recently
made possible to produce economically. These include shale gas and its
associated natural gas liquids (NGLs), tight oil, deepwater Gulf of Mexico,
and Canadian oil sands. By 2040, emerging sources are projected
to account for 80 percent of North Americas liquids production,
and 85 percent of its natural gas.
55%
Less energy demand per
dollar of U.S. GDP in 2040,
compared to 2010
2.5
GDP
1.5
Population
1
Demand
Carbon emissions
0.5
0
2000
2020
2040
11
100
Res/comm
80
Industrial
60
Electricity generation
40
20
Transportation
Gasoline
0
2000
12 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
2020
2040
Billion tonnes
Quadrillion BTUs
120
100
6
Other renewables
Biomass
80
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Res/comm
60
Industrial
40
20
Oil ex bio
Transportation
Electricity generation
Coal
0
2000
2020
2040
2000
2020
2040
13
North Americas
new trade opportunity
With its production rising and demand falling, North America
is on track to become a net exporter of energy by about 2020,
and the United States could be a significant contributor to
those expanding trade opportunities.
14 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
The export opportunities are largest for natural gas. Most of the markets
for this gas are overseas in places such as Japan and South Korea, which
have high gas demand but little indigenous resource. As a result, most of
Americas gas exports will be in the form of LNG, which is natural gas that is
liquefied for transport by ship, rather than by pipeline.
U.S. gas
BCFD
Thousand TCF
0
Remaining recoverable
resource as of Jan. 2011*
Cumulative use
2011-2040
Conventional
Unconventional
Domestic demand
LNG exports
100
80
Res/comm
60
Industrial
40
Electricity generation
20
*Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Transportation
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
15
We believe that, in time, U.S. LNG exports are likely to be in the higher
range currently being studied by DOE due to the scale of global demand for
natural gas. In Europe and Asia Pacific, imports are projected to account
for over half of gas demand by 2040. As an example, even at the high end
of the DOE study range, cumulative LNG exports through 2040 would still
be only 5 percent of the EIA estimate of Americas remaining recoverable
gas resources.
In the United States, imports should continue to decline. U.S. net imports
of liquid supplies are projected to fall to under 2 MBD by 2040, about
one-tenth the levels seen just 10 years ago. The growth in U.S. tight oil has
been rapid as evidenced by the surge in production from places like Texas
and North Dakota. Every year producers increase their drilling effectiveness
while estimates of the size of the resource steadily increase. In fact, North
Dakota just recently surpassed 1 MBD of oil production.
Rising production will create new trading opportunities for oil, too.
North America should shift to a net liquids exporter, as production is lifted
by growth in U.S. tight oil, Canadian oil sands and other supplies such as
NGLs. By 2040, North American production is expected to exceed liquids
demand by approximately 15 percent.
The trading picture for crude is more complex than for natural gas, because
unlike natural gas, there are different grades of crude oil.
The nations 140 refineries use crude as feedstock to make a range of
products, including gasoline, diesel fuel and asphalt. But each refinery can
process only so much of each grade before running into bottlenecks.
4 MBD
Rise in U.S. production
of crude oil and other
liquids since 2009
16 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
U.S. EIA
The sea changes in U.S. energy rising production and falling demand
continue to provide new jobs and economic benefits to the nation. Informed
consumer choices and effective government policies are needed to best
meet the complex energy challenges and opportunities facing the U.S.,
North America and the world.
MBD
30
4.5
4.0
MBDOE
25
3.5
North Dakota
Texas
3.0
20
Canada/Mexico other
Canada/Mexico C&C
2.5
15
2.0
10
1.5
U.S. other
1.0
0.5
5
10
U.S. C&C
0
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1980
2010
2040
17
Data
Energy demand (quadrillion BTUs) unless otherwise indicated
Regions
2010
2025
2010
2040
2010
-5%
-10%
10%
-57%
23%
-6%
11%
55%
-5%
-13%
36%
-72%
34%
-4%
26%
183%
100%
40%
24%
21%
9%
3%
1%
2%
100%
39%
29%
14%
10%
3%
1%
4%
100%
37%
34%
6%
13%
3%
1%
6%
3%
0%
-6%
15%
11%
-2%
-3%
0%
-6%
-1%
12%
-1%
0%
0%
-12%
14%
24%
-3%
100%
27%
39%
34%
19%
40%
100%
27%
36%
38%
20%
39%
100%
27%
34%
38%
23%
40%
0.0%
-0.2%
1.2%
-3.9%
0.9%
-0.3%
0.6%
3.8%
4%
1%
29%
-32%
5%
2%
12%
93%
-3%
-7%
10%
-56%
23%
-10%
6%
60%
1%
-6%
42%
-70%
30%
-8%
18%
209%
100%
41%
25%
19%
9%
3%
2%
2%
100%
40%
31%
12%
9%
3%
2%
4%
100%
38%
34%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.8%
0.0%
0.2%
0.1%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.1%
7%
2%
-2%
19%
14%
2%
-1%
0%
-3%
1%
13%
0%
6%
3%
-6%
21%
29%
2%
100%
26%
37%
36%
18%
38%
100%
25%
34%
41%
20%
37%
100%
25%
33%
41%
22%
38%
1.6%
1.2%
2.1%
1.3%
1.9%
0.9%
2.3%
6.3%
0.5%
0.5%
1.2%
-1.1%
2.7%
0.0%
1.3%
3.4%
1.0%
0.8%
1.6%
0.1%
2.3%
0.5%
1.8%
4.8%
26%
19%
37%
22%
32%
14%
40%
149%
8%
7%
19%
-16%
49%
1%
21%
65%
36%
28%
63%
2%
97%
15%
70%
311%
100%
34%
22%
26%
5%
9%
2%
1%
100%
32%
24%
25%
6%
8%
2%
3%
100%
32%
26%
19%
8%
8%
3%
4%
556
147
140
269
119
291
1.5%
1.1%
1.3%
1.8%
2.6%
2.0%
0.6%
0.5%
0.9%
0.4%
1.6%
0.8%
1.0%
0.8%
1.1%
1.1%
2.1%
1.4%
25%
17%
22%
31%
48%
34%
9%
9%
15%
6%
27%
13%
36%
27%
40%
39%
87%
51%
100%
28%
24%
47%
15%
37%
100%
26%
24%
50%
18%
39%
100%
26%
25%
48%
21%
41%
36.9
5.2
4.0
1.3%
-0.3%
-0.7%
-0.1%
-1.1%
-1.4%
0.6%
-0.7%
-1.0%
22%
-4%
-10%
-2%
-16%
-19%
20%
-19%
-26%
100%
21%
18%
100%
17%
13%
100%
14%
11%
1990
2000
2010
2025
2040
United States
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
81
35
17
19
6
2
1
1
96
40
22
22
8
3
1
1
94
38
22
20
9
3
1
2
94
37
28
13
9
3
1
3
90
33
31
6
12
2
1
5
0.0%
-0.2%
1.4%
-2.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.9%
4.1%
-0.3%
-0.7%
0.7%
-5.4%
1.4%
-0.4%
0.7%
3.0%
-0.2%
-0.5%
1.0%
-4.1%
1.0%
-0.1%
0.8%
3.5%
0%
-3%
24%
-34%
9%
3%
14%
83%
62
15
22
24
9
29
72
18
27
27
12
37
70
19
27
24
13
37
72
19
26
27
15
37
70
19
24
27
17
36
0.2%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.9%
0.7%
-0.1%
-0.2%
0.0%
-0.4%
-0.1%
0.8%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.4%
0.7%
-0.1%
North America
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
95
42
21
20
7
3
2
1
114
49
26
23
9
4
2
1
113
47
28
21
10
3
2
2
118
47
36
14
10
3
2
4
115
44
40
6
13
3
3
7
0.3%
0.1%
1.7%
-2.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.7%
4.5%
-0.2%
-0.5%
0.6%
-5.3%
1.4%
-0.7%
0.4%
3.2%
73
18
25
30
11
33
86
22
31
34
15
42
87
23
32
32
16
43
93
23
32
38
18
44
92
23
31
38
20
44
0.4%
0.2%
-0.2%
1.2%
0.9%
0.1%
World
Primary
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Biomass/waste
Hydro
Other renewables
360
137
72
86
21
36
7
1
418
157
89
93
27
41
9
3
526
178
116
135
29
49
12
7
662
212
158
164
38
56
16
18
717
228
189
138
56
56
20
29
291
87
65
139
35
118
330
98
81
151
45
144
409
115
100
193
63
192
511
135
122
254
94
258
23.9
6.6
5.7
30.7
6.5
5.5
37.4
6.2
5.0
18 exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
% change
2025
2040
Share of total
2025
2040
5%
11%
3%
2%
6%
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporations internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International
Energy Agency. This report includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ
materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website
at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
SP-138 US