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Nama: Ridwan Fachrudin

M.Sc.

Dosen : Prof. Dr. Marimin,

NRP : F34120042
Kelas : K1
TUGAS ANALISIS SISTEM DAN PENGENDALIAN KEPUTUSAN
BAB 4
Bagian E. 1
1. Ketidakpastian dalam pengambilan keputusan disebabkan diantaranya
oleh :
Jawab : D. Keduanya (a dan b) benar
2. Pohon diagram dapat dipandang sebagai diagram alir dari titik-titik
pertanyaan yang menuju pada sebuah keputusan. Dalam pohon
keputusan terdapat dua symbol utama yaitu bujur sangkar yang
melambangkan titik pengambilan keputusan dan lingkaran yang
melambangkan
:
Jawab : B. kemungkinan kejadian yang dipertimbangkan
3. Pengambilan keputusan yang mengandung ketidakpastian dengan
memperhatikan kejadian atas status pada masa yang akan datang
selama memilih alternatif keputusan dapat dilakukan dengan metode :
Jawab : D. Metode pada (a,b, dan c) semuanya dapat dipakai
4. Pengambilan keputusan dengan metode maximin berarti :
Jawab : A.
Prioritas alternatif keputusan diurut berdasar nilai
keputusan yang diambil dari nilai maksimum dari nilai minimum payof
pada masing-masing alternatif keputusan.
5. Pengambilan keputusan dengan metode minimax berarti :
Jawab : C. Prioritas alternatif keputusan diurut berdasar nilai keputusan
yang diambil dari nilai minimum dari nilai maksimum payof pada
masing-masing alternatif keputusan.
Bagian E. 2
1. Diketahui peluang permintaan 0,1 untuk permintaan rendah, 0,5 untuk
permintaan sedang, dan 0,4 untuk permintaan tinggi.
Tabel payof :
Alternatif
A. Subkontrak
B. Fasilitas baru
C. Tidak
melakukan apa-

Low
0,1
$10
-$120
$20

Medium
0,5
$50
$25
$40

High
0,4
$90
$200
$60

apa
Rekomendasi keputusan dengan :
1. Maximax
Max : $90, $200, $60
Terpilih max $200 keputusan membangun fasilitas baru
2. Maximin
Min : $10, -$120, $20
Max dari min : $20 keputusan tidak melakukan apa-apa
3. Minimax regret
A. $20-$10 = $10
B. $20-(-$120) = $140
C. $20-$20 = $0

$50-$50 = $0
$50-$25 = $25
$50-$40 = $10

$200-$90 = $110
$200-$200 = $0
$200-$60 = $140

Max : $140, $25, $140


Min dari max : $25 keputusan membangun fasilitas baru
4. Hurwich
= 0,1 untuk permintaan rendah 0,5 untuk permintaan sedang, dan
0,4 untuk permintaan tinggi
A. $10(0,1) + $50(0,5) + $90(0,4) = $62
B. -$120(0,1) + $25(0,5) + $200(0,4) = $80,5
C. $20(0,1) + $40(0,5) + $60(0,4) = $46
Max : $80,5 keputusan membangun fasilitas baru
5. Equal likehood
Alternatif
A
B

Low Mediu
(0,1) m
(0,5)
$10 $50
$25
$12
0
$20 $40

High Total
(0,4)
$90
$20
0

(10*0,1+50*0,5+90*0,4) = $62
(-120*0,1+25*0,5+200*0,4)
=
$80,5

$60

(20*0,1+40*0,5+60*0,4) = $46

Max : $80,5 keputusan B membangun fasilitas baru

2. Diagram pohon

Ekspansi
$280.000
Tinggi(0,6)
$280.000
No Ekspansi
$233.000

Kecil
$168.000

Rendah(0,4)
$200.000

Ekspansi
$200.000
No Ekspansi
$0

$480.000
Ekspansi
$0
Tinggi (0,6)
$800.000
No Ekspansi
$800.000
Besar
$480.000

Ekspansi
$0
Rendah(0,4)
$40.000
No Ekspansi
$40.000

Rekomendasi berdasarkan diagram pohon adalah dengan membangun


fasilitas besar.
3. Jumlah kejadian yang dapat dipertimbangkan dalam state of nature
adalah dua kejadian. Dua kejadian tersebut adalah saat kondisi
ekonomi baik (untung) dan saat kondisi ekonomi buruk (rugi).
4. Jumlah alternatif keputusan yang dapat dipertambingkan adalah 3
alternatif yaitu :
Memperluas perusahaan
Status quo
Menjual perusahaan
5. Regret dalam minimax regret adalah penyesalan terhadap keputusan
yang telah diambil dimana hasil dari keputusan yang diambil tersebut
bukanlah pilihan yang tepat. Sehingga perlu memilih alternatif
keputusan yang tidak benar-benar diinginkan untuk meminimalkan
regret.

2. Diagram pohon

Ekonomi tumbuh
(0,6) $2000.000

$1.000.000$300.000
$200.000

$800.000

$1.400.000
Memperluas
produksi
$1.990.000
$800.000

$700.000

$2.790.000
Ekonomi tidak
tumbuh
(0,4) $225.000

$2.700.000

$2.300.000
$600.000

$3.300.000
$1.000.000

$1.990.000
$450.000
$250.000
Membeli tanah
baru
$200.000

Ekonomi tumbuh
(0,6) $0

$450.000

$210.000
Ekonomi tidak
tumbuh
(0,4) $0

$210.000

Kesimpulan : keputusan yang tepat untuk diambil perusahaan adalah melakukan perluasan
produksi palm oil saat kondisi ekonomi tidak tumbuh.

Nama: Ridwan Fachrudin


M.Sc.

Dosen : Prof. Dr. Marimin,

NRP : F34120042
Kelas : K1
TUGAS ANALISIS SISTEM DAN PENGENDALIAN KEPUTUSAN
Soal dari slide :
1. An ICT company wants to analyze the future of its business. There
are 4 decision alternatives : expand the company, maintain status
quo, decrease the business size up to 50% of the current size and
sell the company. From the business analysis there will be two
possibilities : good economic condition and bad economic condition.
If the economic condition is good, the profit of the expansion will be
Rp 900 million and only Rp 400 million when the economic condition
is bad. If the economic condition is good, the profit of maintain
status quo will be Rp 1.000 million and only Rp 50 million when the
economic condition is bad. If the economic condition is good, the
profit of decrease the business size will be Rp 600 million and only
Rp 300 million when the economic condition is bad. When the
company is sold the current price is Rp 350 million. Solve this
decision problem by using maximax, maximin, minimax, hurwicz
( with alpha = 0,3) and Equal likehood. Based on the analysis
provide your best suggestion.
Jawab :
Alternatif
Expand
Maintain status quo
Decrease business
Sell the company

Good Economic (Rp)


900.000.000
1.000.000.000
600.000.000
350.000.000

Bad Economic (Rp)


400.000.000
50.000.000
300.000.000
350.000.000

a. Maximax
Max (900 million, 1000 million, 600 million, 350 million)
Terpilih max : 1000 million maintain status quo
b. Maximin
Min (400 million, 50 million, 300 million, 350 million)
Terpilih max : 400 million melakukan ekspansi perusahaan

c. Minimax regret
Expand
Status quo
Decrease business
Sell the company

900-1000 = -100 million


1000-1000 = 0 million
600-1000 = -400 million
350-1000 = -650 million

400-400 = 0 million
50-400 = -350 million
300-400 = -100 millio
350-400 = -50 million

Max : 0, 0, -100, -50.


Min dari max : -50 menjual perusahaan
d. Hurwicz dengan alfa 0,3
Good economic : 0,3 Bad economic : 0,7
Expand : 900 (0,3) + 400 (0,7) = 550 million
Status quo : 1000 (0,3) + 50 (0,7) = 335 million
Decrease business : 600 (0,3) + 300 (0,7) = 350 million
Sell the company : 350 (0,3) + 350 (0,7) = 350 million
Max : 550 million ekspansi perusahaan
e. Equal Likehood alfa 0,5
Expand : 900 (0,5) + 400 (0,5) = 650 million
Status quo : 1000 (0,5) + 50 (0,5) = 525 million
Decrease business : 600 (0,5) + 300 (0,5) = 450 million
Sell the company : 350 (0,5) + 350 (0,5) = 350 million
Max : 650 million ekspansi perusahaan
2. The palm oil based Futuristic company is considering two
alternatives : to expand its existing production operation to
manufacture a new line of derivative material; or to purchase land to
construct a new facility on in the future. Each of these decisions has
outcomes based on product market growth in the future that result
in another set of decisions (during a ten-year planning horizon).
The first decision facing the company is whether to expand or buy
land. If the company expands, two states of nature are possible.
Either the market will grow (with probability of 0,60) or it will not
grow (with probability of 0,40). Either stste of nature will result in a
payoff. On the other hand, if the company chooses to purchase land,
three years in the future another decision will have to be mad
regarding the development of the land.
At decision node 1, the decision choices are to expand or to
purchase land, that the cost of the ventures ($800,000 and $200,000
respectively). If the plant is expanded, two state of nature are
possible at probability node 2 : the market will grow, with a
probability of 0,60, or it will not grow with decline, with a probability

of 0,40. If the market grows, the company will achieve a payoff of


$2,000,000 over a ten-year period. However, if no growth occurs, a
payoff of only $225,000 will result.
If the decision is to purchase land, two states of nature are possible
at probability node 3. These are two states of nature and their
probabilities are identical to these at node 2; however, the payoffs
are different. If market growth occurs for a three-year period, no
payoff will occur, but the company will make another decision at
node 4 regarding development of the land. At that point, either the
plant will be expended at a cost of $800,000 or the land will be sold,
with a payoff of $450,000. The decision situation at node 4 can occur
only if market growth occurs first. If there is no market growth occurs
at node 3, there is no payoff, and another decision situation
becomes necessary for $210,000. (Notice that the sale of the land
result in less profit if there is no market growth then if there is
growth).
If the decision at decision node 4 is to expand, two states of nature
are possible. the market may grow, with a probability of market
growth is higher (and the probability of no growth iis lower) than
before because there has already been growth for the first three
years, as shown by the branch from node 3 to node 4. The payoffs
for these two states of nature at the end of ten year period are
$3,000,000 and $700,000.
If the company decides to build a warehouse at node 5, then two
states of nature can occurs. Market growth can occur, with a
probability of 0,30 and an eventual payoff of $2,300,000, or no
growth can occur, with a probability of 0,30 and an eventual payoff
of $1,000,000. The probability of market growth is low (i.e. 0,30)
because there has already been no market growth. Construct the
decision tree structure and the solve the structure so you can
suggest the company whether to expand or to purchase the land.