Swedbank
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Global Outlook: The global recovery is propped up by monetary policy
Swedbank
Executive Summary
Swedbank
4,5
3,6
4,0
3,5
3,4
3,7
3,5
China
3,0
Japan
2,5
EMU countries
2,0
1,5
USA
1,0
0,5
Others
0,0
Global GDP (PPP)
-0,5
2013
2014
2015
Sources: Ecowin and Swedbank's forecasts.
2016
Main
60
50
40
30
Worse
Better
Worse Better
20
10
0
Source: Swedbank
Swedbank
April
January
4
Fed
1,00
BoE
0,50
Norges bank
0,00
Riksbank
-0,50
ECB
-1,00
Policy rate
5y
1,5
10y
1,0
2y
0,5
0,0
17-Apr-15
mid 2015
end 2015
mid 2016
end 2016
2013
2,2
-0,4
0,2
0,4
-1,7
-1,2
-1,3
1,7
-0,5
2,3
1,6
7,9
6,3
2,7
1,3
3,4
2014
2,4
(2,4)
0,9
(0,8)
1,6
(1,5)
0,4
(0,3)
-0,4 (-0,4)
1,4
(1,3)
-0,1 (-0,3)
2,8
(2,6)
1,1
(0,9)
2,3
(2,6)
-0,1 (0,2)
7,6
(7,5)
6,9
(5,2)
0,2
(0,2)
0,7
(0,5)
3,5
(3,4)
2015f
2,9
(3,2)
1,4
(1,1)
2,0
(1,5)
0,9
(0,6)
0,1
(0,0)
2,5
(2,0)
0,1 (-0,0)
2,4
(2,5)
2,0
(1,8)
1,2
(1,3)
0,8
(1,0)
6,8
(7,1)
7,3
(6,6)
-1,2 (0,7)
-5,5 (-6,0)
3,6
(3,7)
2016f
2,8
(2,8)
1,9
(1,9)
2,2
(2,2)
1,8
(1,7)
1,2
(1,2)
2,5
(2,3)
0,9
(0,8)
2,4
(2,2)
2,3
(2,3)
1,4
(1,7)
1,1
(1,1)
6,6
(6,8)
7,7
(7,0)
-0,8 (1,8)
-2,0 (-2,5)
3,7
(3,8)
0,25
0,25
0,50
1,00
1,50
0,05
0,05
0,05
0,05
0,05
Bank of England
0,50
0,50
0,50
0,75
1,00
Bank of Japan
0,10
0,10
0,10
0,10
0,10
-0,3
-0,3
-0,3
0,1
0,5
Germany 10y
0,1
0,2
0,4
0,8
1,3
US 2y
0,5
0,6
1,1
1,7
2,2
US 10y
1,9
1,9
2,3
2,7
3,1
1,07
1,03
1,00
0,95
0,98
6,2
6,1
6,1
6,0
5,9
USD/JPY
119
121
125
127
129
EUR/GBP
0,72
0,71
0,71
0,68
USD/RUB
50
57
65
65
65
Exchange rates
EUR/USD
USD/CNY
-0,25
-0,50
-0,50
-0,50
0,00
0,24
0,20
0,60
1,10
1,70
Exchange rates
EUR/SEK
9,3
9,5
9,3
9,0
8,9
8,6
9,2
9,2
9,5
9,1
114,3
116,5
114,9
113,0
113,3
USD/SEK
KIX (SEK)
1/
2015
2015
2016
2016
30 Jun 31 Dec 30 Jun 31 Dec
Swedbank
Global view
Swedbank
3,5
1,0
3,0
0,8
2,5
0,6
0,4
2,0
0,2
1,5
0,0
1,0
-0,2
0,5
-0,4
-0,6
0,0
Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14
USA (qoq)
US yoy ann.
2013
Monthly change
2014
3-month average
2015
12-month average
12
10
450
8
6
400
4
350
2
0
300
2000
2002
2004
2005
2008
Corporate Profits
2010
2012
2014
Source: IIF
Net
exports
Public sector
1
-1
-3
Households
-5
-7
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2011
Sources: Macrobond and Swedbank.
Swedbank
0,5
0
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
-2,5
World
DM
EM
OPEC
U.S.
GDP
CPI
Euro
Area
Japan
China
Source: IIF
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CPI core
PCE core
10
4.0
1.0
3.5
0.8
3.0
0.6
2.5
0.4
2.0
0.2
1.5
0.0
-0.2
USA (qoq)
-0.4
US yoy (rhs)
1.0
0.5
0.0
Q4-16
Q3-16
Q2-16
Q1-16
Q4-15
Q3-15
Q2-15
Q1-15
Q4-14
Q3-14
Q2-14
Q1-14
Q4-13
Q3-13
Q2-13
Q1-13
Q4-12
Q3-12
Q2-12
Q1-12
-0.6
2
1,5
Dec 2014
Sep 2014
0,5
Jun 2014
0
2014
Swedbank
2015
2016
11
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
65
60
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
Jan-07 Dec-07 Nov-08 Oct-09 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jul-12 Jun-13 May-14
35
Spain
France
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Swedbank
Swedbank
Italy
Germany
12
5,0
4,0
General government
final consumption
expenditure
NPISH final
consumption
expenditure
H.H final consumption
expenditure
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Note: Components may not sum due to rounding & inventories not included
Sources: ONS and Reuters EcoWin
Swedbank
13
55
50
Manufacturing PMI, SA
45
Services PMI
40
Composite PMI, SA
35
30
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-1
-10
-2
-20
-3
2009
-30
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
14
Fed
60
50
1,00
40
0,50
30
0,00
20
-0,50
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan
USA
UK
EMU
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Swedbank
BoE
Norges bank
Riksbank
ECB
-1,00
15
Swedbank
Brazil is in recession
The Brazilian economy hurt by:
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
11
10
9
8
7
Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Swedbank
Jul-13
10
Retail trade
turnover
Consumer prices
-5
-10
-15
2009
2010
2011
Source: Reuters Ecowin
2012
2013
2014
2015
550
110
90
475
400
70
USD/RUB, close
(1.jan 2014 = 100)
50
30
Jan-14
325
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
250
Apr-15
Central bank
international
reserves, USD bn (rs)
18
0
-0,5
-1
-1,5
-2
-2,5
-3
-3,5
-4
-4,5
-5
-5,5
57
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11
Jul-13
Feb-14 Sep-14
19
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Bank loans
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Total loans
Billions
500
400
300
200
100
20
Sweden
Swedbank
3,5
2,6
3,2
3,0
Public cons
2,5
2,0
1,5
Foreign balance
1,3
Stockbuilding
1,0
0,5
Private cons
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
Swedbank
22
6,0
5,0
9000
8000
7000
4,0
6000
3,0
5000
2,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
Disposable income (real change in %, RHS)
Consumption (real change in %, RHS)
Savings ratio
Interest rate costs (% of disp.inc)
Source: Swedbank
4000
3000
1,0
2000
0,0
1000
0
Source: Swedbank
Debt total
Solid increase in disposable income this year, but higher taxes and rising inflation will dampen
the growth rate in 2016
Amortization Requirements and political uncertainties contributes to a persistent high savings
ratio during the forecast period
Households have a strong balance sheet at the aggregate level
Swedbank
23
10
80
60
40
20
2
0
0
0-25
25-50
50-70
70-85
above 85
15
15
Interest ratio
10
10
0-25
25-50
50-70
70-85
Note: Shows interest rate payments as well as the sum of
interest rate payments and amortization as a share of
disposable income.
The debt service ratio refers to present amortization plans.
above 85
Source: FSA
100
95
3500
90
85
3000
80
75
2500
70
65
2000
60
55
1500
Jan-07 Apr-08
50
Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
Debt, bn SEK
Interest rate costs, bn SEK
24
15
10
5
50
40
30
0
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1
-5
20
10
-10
-10
-15
0
2007
-1
-20
-2
Goods
Durable goods
Services
-20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 -30
-40
Low interest rates and strong housing completions boosts consumption this year
Amortization Requirements, higher taxes and fragile "sentiment" dampen consumption of
durable goods, mainly next year
Swedbank
25
15
10
5
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-5
-10
-15
Total
Housing
Public
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2008
2009
2010
Machinery/Inventories
Investments that are intangible
2011
2012
2013
2014
Building excl. housing
Housing
26
4
2
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-2
-4
-6
Market shares
Export, %
2014
Average 2010-2013
27
Swedbank estimate
Riksbank estimate
5 200
10,0
Labor force
9,5
9,0
8,5
5 000
8,0
4 800
7,5
7,0
4 600
4 400
6,5
Employment
6,0
5,5
4 200
5,0
Swedbank
28
10 000 000
1,0%
9 500 000
0,8%
0,6%
9 000 000
0,4%
0,2%
8 500 000
0,0%
-0,2%
8 000 000
-0,4%
-0,6%
7 500 000
0-14y (%)
Chg population (%)
Source: Statistics Sweden
15-64y (%)
Population (RHS)
65+y (%)
75%
73%
66%
64%
Total
62%
60%
2000
Dom. born
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
29
3,5
3,5
2,5
2,5
1,5
1,5
Sweden: Wages
7,0
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
"Wage drift"
30
Higher inflation
3,00%
2,50%
2,00%
1,50%
1,00%
0,50%
0,00%
-0,50%
-1,00%
2010
2011
2012
CPI
2013
Swedbank
2014
2015
CPIF
2016
Swedbank
Swedbank
31
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
2010-11-15
-0,50
2012-11-15
2014-11-15
2016-11-15
-1,00
Outcome
Riksbank (Mar)
Swedbank (Apr)
Riba/FRA (Apr 20)
Note: The Riksbank repo rate path is an estimation from the press release
Sources: Swedbank, Riksbanken and Bloomberg
Swedbank
SEK 50 billion
Covered bonds and bonds from local authorities are
plausible
32
SEK bn 2016
+5,5
School
+2,6
+6,5
Environment
+2,0
+3,4
-15,8
Other
-3,9
Swedbank
33
Expansive fiscal policy can contribute to strengthen growth with a positive multiplier when
policy rates have reached the zero lower bound (see e.g., Blanchard och Leigh 2013,
Eichengreen and ORourke 2012)
Swedbank
34
Swedbank
Expenses SEK 20 bn
School
Environment
Social contribution fees
35
Swedbank
36
Labour costs in the US start increasing as the labour market continues to improve
Strong USD/low oil prices support limited rate hiked by Fed
Expectations on Fed is currently only 25 bp hike in December and Fed funds around 1.00 % Dec
16.
Swedbank
37
Swedbank
38
Swedbank
39
4,0
2,0
0,0
-2,0
-4,0
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
GDP Mainland
Network forecast
Norway: Unemployment in %
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Norges Bank's forecast
Unemployment (survey)
Unemployment (registred)
5,0
40
12
8
0
-4
-8
2010
2011
2012
2013
Industrial output
2014
2015
8
6
3
2.6
0.1
0.9
0
-1.5
-4
-1.3
-6
-8
2010
2011
2012
GDP
Exports
2013
2014
2015f
Private consumption
2016f
Investments
-0.1
-2
Services' turnover
41
2013
2014
2015
Discount rate
Lending rate
7,7 kr
800
700
7,6 kr
600
7,5 kr
500
400
7,4 kr
300
7,3 kr
200
100
7,2 kr
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
Market rate
Central rate
60000
104
55000
102
50000
100
45000
98
40000
96
94
35000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
REER (ULC)
Export (m Dkk, RHS)
Sources:BIS and Statistics Denmark.
79
78
77
76
75
-2
74
-4
73
-6
Mar-05
72
Jun-06
Sep-07
Employment growth
Dec-08
Mar-10
Jun-11
Unemployment rate
Sep-12
Dec-13
43
The Baltics
Estonia: More opportunities for growth
Latvia: Consumers driving growth
Lithuania: Wear your long johns until the
summer
Swedbank
44
8
6
4.7
4
2.1
2.1
2.8
Inventories
1.6
Net exports
Investments
Government
Households
-2
GDP growth, %
-4
-6
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
8.6%
7.4%
8%
7.0%
6.7%
6%
Unemployment rate
Consumer prices,
YoY
4%
2%
0%
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
-2%
Sources: Statistics Estonia and Swedbank
Swedbank
45
12
24
GDP (RHS)
16
Household
consumption
Gross fixed
capital formation
-8
-3
2013
Imports
15f 16f
2014
Exports
-6
-16
2012
Source: CSBL
120
Real net wage
15
110
Manufacturing
output
100
Retail trade
turnover
-15
-30
2010
2011
Source: CSBL
Swedbank
90
80
2012
2013
2014
2015
Econ. sentiment
index (RHS)
6,1
3,8
4
2,9
3,3
1,6
3,5
2,3
0
-2
-4
2010
2011
2012
Household consumption
Investment (excl.invent.)
Net export
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
Government consumption
Inventories
GDP growth, %
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exports of goods to Russia
Exports of goods
Exports of goods produced in Lithuania (w/o mineral pr.)
Exports of goods produced in Lithuania (w/o mineral pr. & Russia)
Source: Statistics Lithuania.
Swedbank
47
Swedbank
2014
2015f
2016f
1,3
2,3
2,6
3,2
Industrial production
-0,7
-1,3
1,8
4,2
0,0
-0,2
0,2
1,9
0,1
-0,3
1,0
2,4
CPIF, average 2/
0,9
0,5
1,0
2,0
0,8
0,5
1,5
2,1
1,1
1,3
1,3
0,9
8,0
7,9
7,8
7,6
Employment (15-74)
1,0
1,4
1,4
1,1
2,6
3,0
3,0
3,3
15,6
2,1
16,0
2,8
15,6
2,8
15,7
2,5
6,9
5,8
6,1
6,1
-1,4
-2,1
-1,7
-1,2
38,6
40,6
40,5
39,7
Changes in volum e, %
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2,4
(2,4)
3,2
(2,7)
2,5
(2,3)
1,9
(1,4)
2,2
(2,0)
2,5
(2,1)
-0,4
6,5
(4,6)
4,5
(5,3)
6,3
(6,3)
-1,6
4,6
(0,8)
3,3
(3,4)
6,2
(6,7)
public
1,7
1,7
(5,1)
0,4
(4,8)
4,6
(4,3)
housing
2,1
7,9
(6,8)
Change in inventories
1/
0,0
0,2
(0,3)
-0,1
(-0,0)
0,0
(0,0)
-0,2
3,3
(2,1)
4,5
(3,5)
5,4
(5,2)
-0,7
6,5
(5,1)
5,5
(5,3)
5,7
(5,5)
GDP
1,2
2,1
(1,8)
2,8
(2,4)
3,4
(3,2)
1,3
2,3
(1,9)
2,6
(2,2)
3,2
(2,9)
Domestic demand
Net exports 1/
1/
1,0
3,0
(2,5)
3,1
(3,0)
3,3
(3,1)
0,2
-1,1
(-1,0)
-0,2
(-0,6)
0,1
(0,1)
-0,25
-0,50
-0,50
-0,50
0,00
0,24
0,20
0,60
1,10
1,70
Exchange rates
EUR/SEK
9,3
9,5
9,3
9,0
8,9
8,6
9,2
9,2
9,5
9,1
114,3
116,5
114,9
113,0
113,3
USD/SEK
KIX (SEK)
1/
Swedbank
49
2014
2,1
2015f
2,1
(2,0)
2016f
2,8
(2,7)
Household consumption
3,8
4,6
4,7
(4,2)
3,6
(3,6)
Government consumption
2,8
2,3
2,0
(1,0)
2,0
(1,0)
2,3
-2,8
2,0
(0,6)
3,5
(3,5)
2,4
2,6
2,1
(1,5)
4,0
(3,7)
3,3
2,7
3,1
(2,1)
4,6
(4,2)
2,8
-0,1
0,1
(0,3)
2,7
(2,6)
8,6
7,4
7,0
(7,3)
6,7
(7,2)
4,6
4,2
7,0
(6,5)
3,0
(3,3)
18,7
19,5
20,5
(20,4)
21,7
(21,7)
2/
3,5
2,4
1,9
(1,5)
4,5
(4,2)
2,9
1,1
2,1
(1,9)
5,1
(4,7)
1,4
2,5
2,3
(2,4)
1,9
(2,2)
-1,1
-0,1
-0,3
(-0.9)
-1,0
(-1.3)
0,6
0,6
0,8
(-0.4)
-0,4
(-1.0)
3,6
6,1
4,9
(3,9)
4,6
(3,7)
93,5
97,2
93,0
(87,2)
88,8
(83,4)
-0,5
0,6
-0,5
(-0.4)
-0,5
(-0.2)
10,1
10,6
10,2
(9,8)
10,0
(9,5)
2013
2014
1,6
2,1
2,1
2015f
(2,0)
2,8
2016f
(2,7)
2,8
-0,1
0,1
(0,3)
2,7
(2,6)
Unemployment rate, % 2/
8,6
7,4
7,0
(7,3)
6,7
(7,2)
4,6
4,2
7,0
(6,5)
3,0
(3,3)
0,6
0,6
0,8
(-0.4)
-0,4
(-1.0)
-0,5
0,6
-0,5
(-0.4)
-0,5
(-0.2)
Swedbank
50
2013
4,2
6,2
2,9
-5,2
1,4
-0,2
0,0
11,9
5,7
23,2
2,2
0,9
-3,3
-2,3
0,1
2,9
131,3
-0,9
38,2
2015f
1,9
(1,9)
3,5
(3,5)
0,6
(0,7)
-0,5
(-0,5)
1,4
(1,0)
2,3
(2,2)
0,8
(0,5)
10,2
(10,2)
5,2
(5,5)
24,8
(24,9)
1,2
(1,1)
1,5
(1,6)
-3,0
(-3,0)
-2,9
(-2,6)
0,2
(-0,2)
2,4
(2,4)
135,9
(136,9)
-1,6
(-1,5)
39,3
(39,4)
2014
2,4
2,3
3,4
1,3
2,2
1,6
0,6
10,8
7,9
24,1
1,8
1,2
-2,9
-3,1
-0,1
1,5
138,6
-1,6
40,3
2016f
3,5
(3,5)
4,0
(4,0)
0,5
(0,5)
10,0
(10,0)
4,0
(4,0)
7,0
(7,0)
2,7
(2,5)
9,2
(9,2)
2,9
(3,9)
26,5
(26,4)
5,9
(5,9)
8,6
(8,9)
-4,5
(-4,7)
-4,4
(-4,3)
-1,9
(-2,8)
3,0
(3,0)
132,2
(133,7)
-1,2
(-1,2)
38,3
(38,5)
2013
Real GDP grow th, %
4,2
2014
2,4
2015f
1,9
2016f
(1,9)
3,5
(3,5)
0,0
0,6
0,8
(0,5)
2,7
(2,5)
11,9
10,8
10,2
(10,2)
9,2
(9,2)
5,7
7,9
5,2
(5,5)
2,9
(3,9)
-2,3
-3,1
-2,9
(-2,6)
-4,4
(-4,3)
-0,9
-1,6
-1,6
(-1,5)
-1,2
(-1,2)
Unemployment rate, %
2/
Swedbank
51
2014
3,3
2,9
2,3
(2.3)
3,5
(3.5)
Household consumption
4,2
5,6
4,3
(4.0)
4,5
(4.7)
Government consumption
1,8
1,3
2,0
(2.5)
2,5
(2.5)
2015f
2016f
7,0
8,0
2,0
(2.0)
8,0
(8.0)
9,4
3,4
-2,5
(0.0)
7,0
(7.0)
9,0
5,4
1,0
(2.6)
8,4
(8.5)
1,0
0,1
-0,5
(0.7)
2,5
(2.0)
11,8
10,7
9,7
(9.7)
8,5
(8.5)
3,8
4,8
5,4
(4.2)
4,0
(4.5)
35,0
36,3
37,1
(37.7)
39,3
(39.7)
8,0
1,0
-3,0
(-2.5)
9,0
(8.0)
7,5
2,1
-1,5
(-0.5)
10,8
(10.0)
1,3
0,1
-1,1
(-1.2)
-2,5
(-2.7)
1,6
0,1
-1,6
(-1.7)
-3,0
(-3.2)
4,6
2,9
1,2
(0.9)
0,0
(-0.7)
1,5
0,8
1,0
(1.5)
1,5
(2.0)
69,8
70,0
70,1
(68.2)
67,5
(65.8)
-2,6
-1,3
-1,6
(-1.6)
-1,0
(-1.0)
39,0
41,1
42,1
(42.6)
37,5
(38.2)
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
3,3
2,9
2,3
(2.3)
3,5
(3.5)
1,0
0,1
-0,5
(0.7)
2,5
(2.0)
11,8
10,7
9,7
(9.7)
8,5
(8.5)
3,8
4,8
5,4
(4.2)
4,0
(4.5)
1,6
0,1
-1,6
(-1.7)
-3,0
(-3.2)
-2,6
-1,3
-1,6
(-1.6)
-1,0
(-1.0)
Unemployment rate, %
2/
Swedbank
52
Contact information
Macro Research
Jerk Matero
Olof Manner
Magnus Alvesson
Martin Bolander
Andrejs Semjonovs
olof.manner@swedbank.se
magnus.alvesson@swedbank.se
martin.bolander@swedbank.se
andrejs.semjonovs@swedbank.lv jerk.matero@swedbank.se
Head of Macro
Senior Economist
Economist
Chief IR Strategist
+46 8 700 92 99
+371 6744 58 44
Anna Fellnder
Knut Hallberg
Sihem Nekrouf
Lija Strauna
Hans Gustafson
anna.fellander@swedbank.se
knut.hallberg@swedbank.se
sihem.nekrouf@swedbank.se
lija.strasuna@swedbank.lv
hans.gustafson@swedbank.se
Senior Economist
Senior Economist
+371 6744 58 75
Harald-Magnus Andreassen
Jrgen Kennemar
ystein Brsum
Vaiva ekut
hma@swedbank.no
jorgen.kennemar@swedbank.se
ob@swedbank.no
vaiva.seckute@swedbank.lt
Chief Economist NO
Senior Economist
Senior Economist
Senior Economist
+47 23 11 82 60
+47 99 50 03 92
+370 5258 21 56
Tnu Mertsina
ke Gustafsson
Strategy
tonu.mertsina@swedbank.ee
ake.gustafsson@swedbank.se
hso@swedbank.no
MadeleinePulk
Chief Economist EE
Senior Economist
Reserach Assistant
madeleine.pulk@swedbank.se
+372 888 75 89
+47 23 23 82 47
Nerijus Maiulis
Anna Breman
Liis Elmik
nerijus.maciulis@swedbank.lt
anna.breman@swedbank.se
liis.elmik@swedbank.ee
Anders Eklf
Chief Economist LT
Senior Economist
Senior Economist
anders.eklof@swedbank.se
+370 5258 22 37
+372 888 72 06
Chief FX Strategist
+46 (0)8 700 91 38
Mrti Kazks
Cathrine Danin
Teele Aksalu
martins.kazaks@swedbank.lv
cathrine.danin@swedbank.se
teele.aksalu@swedbank.ee
Economist
Economist
+371 6744 58 59
+372 888 79 25
Swedbank
53
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54