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ChinasMiddleEastTightrope|ForeignPolicy

Chinas Middle East Tightrope

Beijing is walking a fine line between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But, in this region, even a
big checkbook can't buy friends in both places.
BY ILAN GOLDENBERG , ELY RATNER

APRIL 20, 2015

To understand Chinas role in the Middle East, consider one recent event, and one recent non-event. In
late March, Beijing made headlines by sending warships to rescue hundreds of Chinese and foreign
nationals from conflict-torn Yemen. Yet in early April, Chinese President Xi Jinping canceled what was
supposed to be his first official trip to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, reportedly as a result of the fighting in
Yemen underscoring that Beijing would rather get out of the kitchen than stand the heat of Middle
Eastern politics. Indeed, it is Chinas considerable absence, rather than burgeoning influence, that
continues to define its role in this turbulent region.

China has good reasons to care about events in the Middle East: Roughly half of its oil imports come
from the Persian Gulf. Moreover, Beijing worries about extremist elements in the region providing
training and inspiration to Muslim separatists in western China.

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However, in stark contrast to Xis ambitious domestic agenda reforming key sectors of the economy,
including banking and agriculture; easing restrictions on Chinas outmoded household registration
system; and relaxing its infamous one-child policy he has done little in foreign policy that would
merit a memoir like Hillary Clintons Hard Choices. In fact, despite Xis call for a more proactive
Chinese foreign policy, Beijing has still only contributed to the safe and soft domains of international
politics, such as economic development, anti-piracy, global public health, and U.N. peacekeeping.
China doesnt expend significant blood or treasure abroad combating violent extremism, settling
bloody civil wars, or mediating major regional conflicts. Beijing has instead remained allergic to
confronting tough political and security issues overseas, acutely limiting its geopolitical influence. As
a result, Chinas persistent appeals for win-win cooperation, which may make sense in economic
affairs and other dispassionate realms, hold little water where political battles are zero-sum and fought
over indivisible and deeply contested stakes.
Nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East, where Chinas influence on regional issues is
surprisingly marginal, even as its growing energy dependency is compelling deeper partnerships with
the likes of Saudi Arabia.
Unwilling to put teeth behind its positions, China has made tentative forays into the Middle East
morass that have largely fallen flat. In October 2012, Chinas then foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, rolled
out a Four-Point Plan for Syria that called on all sides to stop fighting, end the crisis, and initiate a
political transition. The Associated Press noted that the plan generated little international interest:
Most observers found it vague, and likely aimed at bolstering Chinas reputation following criticism of
its moves to join Russia in blocking U.N. resolutions aimed at ending Syrias bloodshed. Needless to
say, this was a failure.

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The problem is that Beijing does not want to choose sides in a region that regularly demands it. By
contrast, Washington has made considerable commitments in the region: The United States remains
the de facto guarantor of external security for Saudi Arabia and the rest of the states in the Gulf
Cooperation Council. The dominant American naval presence safeguards the free flow of oil resources
out of the Middle East, underwriting the economic prosperity of many of the regions actors, and
Washington remains deeply engaged in the thankless task of trying to mediate between Israelis and
Palestinians. And yet, despite Americas significant investment, its partners in the Middle East have
criticized the Obama administration for refusing to take even more decisive actions across a range of
regional conflicts. The region is very demanding of a superpower: If China wants to play at that level,
its going to have to take sides.
It is hard to see how a deeply risk-averse China could step into a leadership role in any of the regions
fiery disputes. Beijings most difficult balancing act will be trying to maintain good relations with both
Riyadh and Tehran amid escalating regional and sectarian competition. Saudi Arabias greatest
concern about the Iranian nuclear agreement, which may be completed by the end of June, is that the
removal of banking and oil sanctions will give Tehran the resources to wreak even more havoc through
its proxies in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The majority of new money pouring into Iran would
come from China Irans largest trading partner. Indeed, only days after the Iranian nuclear
agreement was reached in early April, Irans oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, was on his way to Beijing.
Can China really supplant the United States as the guarantor of the Gulf states security when it is
bankrolling their most significant threat?
When it comes to another critically important arena in Middle East diplomacy the IsraeliPalestinian conflict the Chinese are similarly absent. The other four permanent members of the
U.N. Security Council play important roles in the peace process. While the United States is the primary
mediator, key European states including France and Britain have led the charge in the European
Union to offer both significant economic incentives and disincentives to both sides, while the Russians
regularly advocate for the Palestinians. China is the only member of the Security Council failing to step
up to the plate.

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Meanwhile, in Syria and Iraq where state failure, civil war, and the rise of the Islamic State (IS) have
combined to create the regions most severe crisis few good options remain. The Arab states have
concluded that the most meaningful way for foreign powers to contribute in Syria and Iraq is through a
military intervention that targets IS and overthrows President Bashar al-Assad. They argue that only
an intervention including a combination of airstrikes, training and arming of opposition forces, and
potentially even more direct military options, could at this point save Syria.But China wont go there
either. Instead, Beijing has sided with Moscow at the Security Council, blocking resolutions that would
have increased pressure on Assad. At the same time, hedging its bets, China has repeatedly hosted
Syrian opposition groups in Beijing, and in March 2012 it sent a special envoy to meet them in
Damascus.
Notably, China has embarked on more proactive diplomacy in the region. This includes increased
high-level visits, including the first by a Chinese foreign minister to Iraq in 23 years, in February 2014;
enhanced engagement with regional organizations like the Arab League; and the successful
recruitment of nine countries in the Middle East, including Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, to sign up as
founding members of the new China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. But this doesnt
overcome the fundamental issue that it is nearly impossible to please all sides and still be a major
player in the Middle East.
Of course, few would disagree with President Barack Obamas characterization that the Chinese have
been free riders for the past 30 years and its worked really well for them in the Middle East. In that
sense, Beijing may be prudent not to get involved in the regions seemingly intractable conflicts.
Nevertheless, China cannot continue pursuing a risk-averse foreign policy and simultaneously emerge
as a leader in the rough-and-tumble arena of Middle East politics. For Xi, it will be an either-or
decision.
LINTAO ZHANG/AFP/Getty Images

Democracy Lab Weekly Brief, April 20,

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2015
BY ILYA LOZOVSKY

ABRIL 20, 2015 - 1:37 PM

ILYA.LOZOVSKY

@ICHBINILYA

To keep up with Democracy Lab in real time, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Yuliya Bila urges Ukraine to decentralize, arguing that devolving power to local authorities will
strengthen the quality of governance and bolster democracy.
Robert Looney warns that Ethiopias economic miracle threatens to run out of steam unless the
government introduces meaningful democratic reforms.
Daniel Lansberg-Rodrguez explains how Venezuelan president Maduros body double raised
eyebrows at the Summit of the Americas.
Christian Caryl argues that German author Gnter Grass, who died last week, will be remembered for
his art not his politics.
And now for this weeks recommended reads:
The latest issue of the Journal of Democracy contains several must-reads, including Duncan McCargo
on the problems of transitional justice, Lilia Shevtsova on deepening political stagnation in Russia,
and Javier Corrales on Venezuelas autocratic legalism.
The Carnegie Endowments Michele Dunne describes how President Sisi is ushering in a new era of
resurgent nationalism, while Shana Marshall looks at what the countrys military has gained,
politically and economically, under the new regime.
In a new report for the Atlantic Council, Frederic C. Hof, Bassma Kodmani, and Jeffrey White make the
case for a new national stabilization force in Syria.

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An investigation by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, the Huffington Post,

and other media partners reports on development projects funded by the World Bank that have
displaced millions of people from their homes.
Writing for African Arguments, James Copnall covers Sudans elections and finds low turnout, putting
their legitimacy into question.(In the photo, election workers wait for a polling station to open in
Khartoum.)
Roman Olearchyk and Neil Buckley of Financial Times report on how the Ukrainian government is
appointing foreigners to high-level posts to boost reform.
The International Crisis Group calls Burundis upcoming elections a moment of truth for the
countrys fragile peace agreement.
Photo credit: PATRICK BAZ/AFP/Getty Images

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