Otis and Haryott (2006) and Haryott and Otis (2009) described a methodology to determine an appropriate P10/P90 (P10‐P90 ratio) for both
EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) and EUR parameter distributions as a guideline in quantifying uncertainty. The method requires pre- and
post-drill data to calibrate a “target” range of P10/P90 that can be used along with an estimate of the high side of the distribution to calibrate
the uncertainty of EUR or EUR parameters. The data used in the 2006 analysis were from the Chevron 1989‐94 international exploration
program and were largely non‐amplitude prospects defined by dense 2D seismic data. The 2009 analysis included an expanded sampling that
included prospects that were constrained by amplitudes and step‐out opportunities that were covered by 3D seismic data. Since then, we have
extended the data set with additional wells and conducted additional analyses. Results, some non‐intuitive, are shown for each of these
samplings and suggest a potential classification, based on structural definition, for a “target” range of P10/P90.

© All Rights Reserved

65 tayangan

Otis and Haryott (2006) and Haryott and Otis (2009) described a methodology to determine an appropriate P10/P90 (P10‐P90 ratio) for both
EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) and EUR parameter distributions as a guideline in quantifying uncertainty. The method requires pre- and
post-drill data to calibrate a “target” range of P10/P90 that can be used along with an estimate of the high side of the distribution to calibrate
the uncertainty of EUR or EUR parameters. The data used in the 2006 analysis were from the Chevron 1989‐94 international exploration
program and were largely non‐amplitude prospects defined by dense 2D seismic data. The 2009 analysis included an expanded sampling that
included prospects that were constrained by amplitudes and step‐out opportunities that were covered by 3D seismic data. Since then, we have
extended the data set with additional wells and conducted additional analyses. Results, some non‐intuitive, are shown for each of these
samplings and suggest a potential classification, based on structural definition, for a “target” range of P10/P90.

© All Rights Reserved

- A Process for Evaluating Exploration Prospects_Otis&Schneidermann
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Anda di halaman 1dari 23

Search and Discovery Article #40609 (2010)

Posted October 29, 2010

*Adapted from oral presentation at AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, April 11-14, 2010

1

Chevron Corporation, Houston, TX

Abstract

Otis and Haryott (2006) and Haryott and Otis (2009) described a methodology to determine an appropriate P10/P90 (P10P90 ratio) for both

EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) and EUR parameter distributions as a guideline in quantifying uncertainty. The method requires pre- and

post-drill data to calibrate a target range of P10/P90 that can be used along with an estimate of the high side of the distribution to calibrate

the uncertainty of EUR or EUR parameters. The data used in the 2006 analysis were from the Chevron 198994 international exploration

program and were largely nonamplitude prospects defined by dense 2D seismic data. The 2009 analysis included an expanded sampling that

included prospects that were constrained by amplitudes and stepout opportunities that were covered by 3D seismic data. Since then, we have

extended the data set with additional wells and conducted additional analyses. Results, some nonintuitive, are shown for each of these

samplings and suggest a potential classification, based on structural definition, for a target range of P10/P90.

Selected References

Otis, R. and P. Haryott, 2006, How low should you go; a method to calibrate estimates of P99 prospect reserves: AAPG Annual Meeting

Abstracts, v. 15, p. 81.

Otis, R.M. and N. Schneidermann, 1997, A process for evaluating exploration prospects: AAPG Bulletin, v. 81/7, p. 1087-1109.

Copyright AAPG. Serial rights given by author. For all other rights contact author directly.

Calibration of

Uncertainty (P10/P90)

in Exploration

Prospects

Robert Otis

Rose & Associates, LLP

Paul Haryott

Chevron Corporation

April 14, 2010

Acknowledgement

data in the development of this presentation

Uncertainty

The Uncertainty in a distribution is typically characterized

by the variance or standard deviation

For estimation of EUR in Exploration, distributions are

typically lognormal (especially those that dictate the

uncertainty in EUR, e.g., area or average net pay)

For lognormal distributions, Uncertainty is best expressed

as P10/P90, where P10 is exceeded only 10% of the time

The Uncertainty is dependent on available data and the

accuracy or quality of those data

Presenters notes: Uncertainty is present throughout our business. Estimates of exploration prospect resources and many of the

variables used to estimate those resources are lognormal (e.g., area, net pay) and the uncertainty is best expressed with the ratio of the

P10 (high) of the distribution divided by the P90 (low). This ratio uniquely determines the more traditional standard deviation or

variance, but is more easily understood when describing uncertainty in exploration resource estimation.

Why?

Observation suggests that uncertainty may be consistent

from prospect to prospect in similar exploration settings

Differing opinions were abundant on the appropriate

P10/P90, but most were based on a wide variety of

experience; few, if any, were validated with data

We wanted to see a data supported process that would

allow a company to develop their own appropriate

P10/P90, calibrated by drilling results

Presenters notes: Observations by the authors suggest a consistency in uncertainty (P10/P90) for resource estimates and

estimates of resource variables. Our analysis is consistent with this observation for several different classes of prospects. To our

knowledge, this is the only data-supported process that allows a company to assess the appropriate P10/P90 to use for both

estimating resource variables and reality-checking resource estimates.

Assumptions

Estimates of EUR, Area and Average Net Pay can be

characterized by lognormal distributions

Lognormal distributions can be defined by two pieces of

independent information (e.g., two points or Pvalues, one

Pvalue and a slope)

Industry standard is P10 (reasonable upside) and P90

(reasonable downside)

Use the extreme upside and downside of P01 and P99

Estimate a Pvalue (P01) and the uncertainty (P10/P90)

Presenters notes: Assumptions for our approach are listed in this slide. Note that because lognormal distributions are linear on log

probability plots, they can be determined either by two points (e.g., P90 and P10) or a point and a slope (e.g., P01 and P10/P90).

Observations

The P01 (extreme high side) of most distributions is

probably the best constrained Pvalue

Field size distributions can use the largest field in the

trend

Area distributions can use the closing contour on

Average Net Pay distributions can use a high N/G and

P10/P90 appears to be fairly consistent for different

prospect categories

Presenters notes: If only one point on the distribution can be easily constrained, the point and slope approach may provide better

estimates of distributions.

The Process

Compile your history zones require two independent

values to define the predrill distribution and the post drill

mean

Estimate the P01 from each predrill distribution

Assign a common P10/P90 to all zones and see where the

post drill mean result falls on the resulting pre drill distribution

Evaluate results using the percentile histogram method from

Otis and Schneidermann (1997)

Do this for several P10/90s and see which one is most

appropriate

Otis & Haryott, 2006

Presenters notes: The process was originally documented by Otis & Haryott, 2006.

Percentile Histograms

52 MMBOE in

50-60 Interval

P01

25 MMBOE in

90-100 Interval

10

100

76 MMBOE in

10-20 Interval

P01

193 MMBOE in

0-10 Interval

P05

P01

P05

P10

P10

P20

P30

P40

P20

P30

P40

P20

P30

P40

P20

P30

P40

P60

P70

P80

P60

P70

P80

P60

P70

P80

P60

P70

P80

P90

P90

P90

P90

P95

P95

P95

P95

P99

P99

P99

1000

P10

P50

P50

P01

P05

P05

10

100

1000

P10

P50

10

100

40-50

30-40

20-30

1000

P50

P99

10

100

1000

3

2

1

0

90-100 80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

10-20

0-10

If the post-drill result from each predrill distribution is

random, the result is a uniform distribution

Presenters notes: This slide illustrates the process for compiling percentile histograms

Diagnostics

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Too Optimistic

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Too Pessimistic

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Need To Widen Ranges

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Uniform Distribution

Acceptable

Presenters notes: Diagnostics for problems related to P01 and P10/P90 as parameters.

Remedies

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Hold P01

Increase P10/P90

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Too Optimistic

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Hold P50

Increase P10/P90

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Need To Widen Ranges

Hold P99

Increase P10/P90

Too Pessimistic

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

No Change

Needed

90- 80- 70- 60- 50- 40- 30- 20- 10- 0-10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Uniform Distribution

Acceptable

Presenters notes: Ways to correct problems related to P01, P50 and P10/P90 as parameters used to estimate lognormal

distributions.

10

Based on early 90s pre and post drill reviews of prospects

generally defined by moderate to dense 2D seismic

Results:

EUR P10/P90 averaged about 8 and ranged from 5 to

10

Area P10/P90 ranged from 3 to 4

Average gross pay ranged from 6 to 8

Presenters notes: Summary of results from AAPG presentation by Otis & Haryott, 2006.

11

Continue investigation reported by Otis & Haryott (2006),

where most zones were covered by 2D seismic (early 90s)

Extend data set to include:

DHI (Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator) zones

Delineation or step-out zones

Other Exploration zones (non-amplitude zones, most

covered by 3D seismic)

Establish appropriate P10/P90 for these different

categories and revisit the early 90s data

Presenters notes: The objective of this effort is to extend the results from 2006 to include different classes of prospects that were

not included in the original analysis.

12

A sample from Chevron exploration wells drilled between

2002 and 2008 (82 discovery zones utilized)

DHI zones with good structural conformance (26 zones)

Delineation or step-out zones (25 zones)

Other exploration zones (31 zones)

13

EUR and Average Net Pay

EUR

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

P10/P90

acceptable

EUR P10/P90 ranges from 3 to 5

Average Net Pay P10/P90 ranges from 2 to 3

Presenters notes: When DHIs were examined, estimates of EUR and average net pay seemed to reflect the correct amount of

uncertainty. Appropriate ranges for Chevron were determined.

14

Area

Area

Area

30%

30%

10%

10%

15%

0%

20%

20%

50%

12%

8%

0%

Increasing P10/P90 from 1.4 to 2.8 while keeping

the low side about the same balances histogram

Results seem counter intuitive because of

expected area resolution from good structural

conformance however, actuals indicate many

optimistic outcomes

Presenters notes: Estimation of Area uncertainty appeared to be too narrow and a larger P10/P90 was needed, despite excellent

structural conformance. This result seemed counter-intuitive; so additional analysis was needed.

15

Calculate: Post Drill Mean/Pre Drill P50

Gives the percentage increase (or decrease) in the Pre

Plot results as a log-probability plot to see the variability of

actual outcomes relative to the Pre Drill P50

Results should plot as a straight line with about half of

the values above P50 (1.0 on the plot) and half below

The slope of a best-fit line should give a first pass

Presenters notes: A second tool was used to assess this result for Area. This tool is a log probability plot of the ratio of the postdrill mean and the pre-drill P50. This approach allows the distribution of results (expressed by the mean) to be compared to the

pre-drill P50. Thus, we would expect half the results to fall above the P50 (ratio greater than 1.0) and half below (ratio less than

1.0). The slope of this curve should express the post-drill uncertainty, or P10/P90, of actual results compared to the pre-drill

forecasts.

16

DHIs

Post Drill Mean/Pre Drill P50 - Area

P10/P90 Calibration (DHIs - Area)

P99

P01

P98

P02

P95

P05

P90

P80

P70

P60

P10

Ln Distribution

with Mean and

Variance of Data

P20

P30

P40

P50

P50

P40

P30

P10/P90 = 2.8

P20

P60

P70

P80

P10

P90

P05

P95

P02

P98

P01

P99

0.01

0.1

10

100

17

Presenters notes: The slope of this curve should predict the appropriate P10/P90 for the variable examined. In this case, the Area

P10/P90 for DHIs with excellent structural conformance should be about 2.8. Note the consistency of results and the straight-line

character of this curve.

17

Observations - DHIs

DHIs with good structural conformance are well defined

and technology is available to accurately predict EUR while

reducing uncertainty P10/P90 ~ 4 balances histogram

Although DHIs conceptually define a clear Area,

considerable uncertainty remains, especially on the upside,

(P10/P90 between 2 and 3)

Note: A P10/P90 of 2 yields a P90-P10 range about the P50

and 3

18

Observations P10/P90

Amplitude

(DHIs)

Delineation

3D Seismic 2D Seismic

EUR

~4

~7

~8

~10

Area

2-3

~3

~4

~3.5

Avg

Net Pay

2-3

~3.5

~4

~5

Presenters notes: Because of time constraints, this table summarizes results from similar analyses of delineation (or exploitation)

drilling, other exploration prospects using primarily 3D seismic and the early 90s prospects (primarily 2D seismic), reported in Otis

& Haryott, 2006.

We would like to report that a closer look at the delineation data suggest a P10/P90 ratio of 4-6 is more appropriate for EUR than the

reported ~7.

19

Summary P10/P90

Very little difference is observed among Delineation, Other

Exploration zones (3D seismic) and the Early 90s zones

(2D seismic) for Area and Net Pay there are basically two

categories of uncertainty: DHIs with good conformance to

structure and all other prospects (including marginal DHIs)

Uncertainty in DHIs is clearly reduced for both Area and

Average Net Pay with P10/P90 ranging between 2 and 3

resulting in an EUR P10/P90 of ~4

In all other prospects, both Area and Average Net Pay

P10/P90 ranged between 3 and 5 resulting in an EUR

P10/P90 between 7 and 10

20

Because each company has a different portfolio, there are

no hard rules each company will need to determine it

independently

To do this, each company needs a history of

consistent estimates of predrill distributions and postdrill actual results to use for calibration and the

discipline to make learning a part of the assessment

Presenters notes: Finally, we wish to point out that the process and tools presented here should be used by companies to develop

their own guidelines for the appropriate P10/P90. The numbers reported here are valid only for the data used. Other companies

use different strategies, different tools and different decision-making processes, all of which render the numbers reported here as

inappropriate for most companies.

21

Thank You

For Your Attention

22

22

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