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  • Seeing Media Polarization Through Data

    Diunggah oleh

    Jonathan Stray
    393 tayangan34 halaman
    A talk at Build Peace 2015, Nicosia, Cyprus Polarization, the pulling apart and hardening of positions, is readily visible in the data from several contexts. The "media" frequently takes some blame for this process, and there's corresponding evidence of a rise in partisan and extremist information sources from broadcast news to microblogging. But it's a lot less clear where cause and effect lies. There may be things that journalists and platform operators can do to increase the visibility of opposing points of view and promote meaningful dialog between sides. Alternatively media fragmentation may be merely a symptom of increasing polarization, or even just a natural consequence of increased choice. We'll dig into the relationship between media and polarization from several different dimensions, from the latest data-driven research to the view from working journalists. What all this means for peace building practitioners is the question we're hoping you can help us answer. Refs Media and Political Polarization Markus Prior http://www.princeton.edu/~mprior/Prior%20MediaPolarization.pdf A wonderful review of the issue, highlighting two serious practical problems in determining the link between media and polarization: it's almost impossible to measure what media someone is exposed to, and we should expect that increased media choice leads to increased divergence in media consumption. Political Polarization in the American Public - Pew Research Center http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/ Extensive survey data on political attitudes in the U.S., showing how the country has pulled apart over the last 20 years, and how political attitudes relate to things like media consumption. Press-Party Parallelism and Polarization of News Media during an Election Campaign: The Case of the 2011 Turkish Elections Ali Çarkoglu, Lemi Baruh, and Kerem Yıldırım http://hij.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/04/21/1940161214528994 A content analysis shows that the tone of pro- and anti-AKP news sources diverged, that is, became increasingly polarized, prior to the 2011 election. Bias in Cable News: Real Effects and Polarization Gregory J. Martin and Ali Yurukoglu http://web.stanford.edu/~ayurukog/cable_news.pdf Using the fact that cable channels assigned lower numbers on the dial receive more attention, the authors show that watching Fox or MSNBC has a small but measurable effect on voting. Secular vs. Islamist Polarization in Egypt on Twitter Ingmar Weber, Venkata R. Kiran Garimella, Alaa Batayneh http://ingmarweber.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Secular-vs.-Islamist-Polarization-in-Egypt-on-Twitter.pdf Polarization of hashtag usage correlates with major events and outbreaks of violence during the Egyptian revolution. The news we use: A mixed methods analysis of cable news media polarization Stephen Lott https://uta-ir.tdl.org/uta-ir/bitstream/handle/10106/24105/Lott_uta_2502M_12489.pdf Content analysis of MSNBC/FOX shows they really do use more divisive language than CNN.

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    A talk at Build Peace 2015, Nicosia, Cyprus Polarization, the pulling apart and hardening of positions, is readily visible in the data from several contexts. The "media" frequently takes some blame for this process, and there's corresponding evidence of a rise in partisan and extremist information sources from broadcast news to microblogging. But it's a lot less clear where cause and effect lies. There may be things that journalists and platform operators can do to increase the visibility of opposing points of view and promote meaningful dialog between sides. Alternatively media fragmentation may be merely a symptom of increasing polarization, or even just a natural consequence of increased choice. We'll dig into the relationship between media and polarization from several different dimensions, from the latest data-driven research to the view from working journalists. What all this means for peace building practitioners is the question we're hoping you can help us answer. Refs Media and Political Polarization Markus Prior http://www.princeton.edu/~mprior/Prior%20MediaPolarization.pdf A wonderful review of the issue, highlighting two serious practical problems in determining the link between media and polarization: it's almost impossible to measure what media someone is exposed to, and we should expect that increased media choice leads to increased divergence in media consumption. Political Polarization in the American Public - Pew Research Center http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/ Extensive survey data on political attitudes in the U.S., showing how the country has pulled apart over the last 20 years, and how political attitudes relate to things like media consumption. Press-Party Parallelism and Polarization of News Media during an Election Campaign: The Case of the 2011 Turkish Elections Ali Çarkoglu, Lemi Baruh, and Kerem Yıldırım http://hij.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/04/21/1940161214528994 A content analysis shows that the tone of pro- and anti-AKP news sources diverged, that is, became increasingly polarized, prior to the 2011 election. Bias in Cable News: Real Effects and Polarization Gregory J. Martin and Ali Yurukoglu http://web.stanford.edu/~ayurukog/cable_news.pdf Using the fact that cable channels assigned lower numbers on the dial receive more attention, the authors show that watching Fox or MSNBC has a small but measurable effect on voting. Secular vs. Islamist Polarization in Egypt on Twitter Ingmar Weber, Venkata R. Kiran Garimella, Alaa Batayneh http://ingmarweber.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Secular-vs.-Islamist-Polarization-in-Egypt-on-Twitter.pdf Polarization of hashtag usage correlates with major events and outbreaks of violence during the Egyptian revolution. The news we use: A mixed methods analysis of cable news media polarization Stephen Lott https://uta-ir.tdl.org/uta-ir/bitstream/handle/10106/24105/Lott_uta_2502M_12489.pdf Content analysis of MSNBC/FOX shows they really do use more divisive language than CNN.

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    393 tayangan34 halaman

    Seeing Media Polarization Through Data

    Diunggah oleh

    Jonathan Stray
    A talk at Build Peace 2015, Nicosia, Cyprus Polarization, the pulling apart and hardening of positions, is readily visible in the data from several contexts. The "media" frequently takes some blame for this process, and there's corresponding evidence of a rise in partisan and extremist information sources from broadcast news to microblogging. But it's a lot less clear where cause and effect lies. There may be things that journalists and platform operators can do to increase the visibility of opposing points of view and promote meaningful dialog between sides. Alternatively media fragmentation may be merely a symptom of increasing polarization, or even just a natural consequence of increased choice. We'll dig into the relationship between media and polarization from several different dimensions, from the latest data-driven research to the view from working journalists. What all this means for peace building practitioners is the question we're hoping you can help us answer. Refs Media and Political Polarization Markus Prior http://www.princeton.edu/~mprior/Prior%20MediaPolarization.pdf A wonderful review of the issue, highlighting two serious practical problems in determining the link between media and polarization: it's almost impossible to measure what media someone is exposed to, and we should expect that increased media choice leads to increased divergence in media consumption. Political Polarization in the American Public - Pew Research Center http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/ Extensive survey data on political attitudes in the U.S., showing how the country has pulled apart over the last 20 years, and how political attitudes relate to things like media consumption. Press-Party Parallelism and Polarization of News Media during an Election Campaign: The Case of the 2011 Turkish Elections Ali Çarkoglu, Lemi Baruh, and Kerem Yıldırım http://hij.sagepub.com/content/early/2014/04/21/1940161214528994 A content analysis shows that the tone of pro- and anti-AKP news sources diverged, that is, became increasingly polarized, prior to the 2011 election. Bias in Cable News: Real Effects and Polarization Gregory J. Martin and Ali Yurukoglu http://web.stanford.edu/~ayurukog/cable_news.pdf Using the fact that cable channels assigned lower numbers on the dial receive more attention, the authors show that watching Fox or MSNBC has a small but measurable effect on voting. Secular vs. Islamist Polarization in Egypt on Twitter Ingmar Weber, Venkata R. Kiran Garimella, Alaa Batayneh http://ingmarweber.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Secular-vs.-Islamist-Polarization-in-Egypt-on-Twitter.pdf Polarization of hashtag usage correlates with major events and outbreaks of violence during the Egyptian revolution. The news we use: A mixed methods analysis of cable news media polarization Stephen Lott https://uta-ir.tdl.org/uta-ir/bitstream/handle/10106/24105/Lott_uta_2502M_12489.pdf Content analysis of MSNBC/FOX shows they really do use more divisive language than CNN.

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    Media and

    Polarization
    @jonathanstray
    Build Peace 2015

    Polarization is really easy


    to see in our data

    Polarization in Congress

    Retweet network of political tweets.


    From Conover, et. al., Political Polarization on Twi.er

    Map of political book sales on Amazon, August 2008


    Vladis Krebs, orgnet.com

    Gun violence: people who tweeted this article also tweeted that article

    Jonathan Stray, The Whole Dysfunctional National Conversation about Guns
    in one Interactive Graph, The Atlantic, 2012

    Is polarization increasing?
    (in the US)


    Royce Carroll, Je Lewis, James Lo, Nolan McCarty, Keith Poole, and Howard
    Rosenthal, "Common Space" DW-NOMINATE Scores

    Estimated by comparing 2- and 3-word phrase use to Congressional Record


    Gregory J. Martin, Ali Yurukoglu, Bias in Cable News:Real Eects and Polarization

    CNN, Fox, MSNBC


    Source

    Divisive statements / hour

    CNN

    5.5

    Fox

    22.0

    MSNBC

    27.3

    Stephen Lo^, The news we use: A mixed method analysis of cable news media
    polarization

    "Divisive language"
    Monsters, Extremists, Rich (or wealthy), Poor (or peasants), Uncle
    Toms, Bunk, Gibberish, Dopey, Corrupt, Demonize, Heartless,
    Cheapskate, Hippie, Liberal, Conservative, Socialist, Fascist,
    Communist, Nazi, Pinhead, Right (or any variation), Left (or any
    variation), Birther (or any variation), Beaten up, Smeared,
    Slandered, Besmirched, Racist, Bigot, Homophobe, Cowardly,
    Weak, Nutty, Dumb, Religious zealot, Incoherent, Ignorance,
    Stupid, Bellicose, Aggressive, Fake, Quack, Fringe, Ridiculous,
    Idiotic, Freak show, Thieves, Special interest lobbyists,
    Bureaucrats, Garbage, Bull, Red, Blue

    Pew Research, Political Polarization in the American Public

    It ma^ers what you measure!

    Is observed polarization due to the lack of cross-group ties / exposure?


    Or do people see the other side and only engage in polarized ways?

    From Garcia, et. al., Network Polarization in online politics participatory media

    Dem/GOP voters more divided...

    Pew Research, Political Polarization in the American Public

    ...but fewer people identify as Dem/GOP

    Pew Research, A Deep Dive into Party Aliation

    Denitions of polarization
    Ideological convergence on survey items
    Distance between voting patterns
    Formation of clusters in social networks
    Lack of inter-group ties
    Comparative language use
    ...

    Polarization increases
    around political events

    Favorability of incumbent (AKP) and opposition (CHP) in Turkish press



    Ali arkoglu, Lemi Baruh, and Kerem Yildirim, Press-Party Parallelism and
    Polarization of News Media during an Election Campaign: The Case of the 2011 Turkish
    Elections

    Hashtag polarity in Egypt, Islamist vs. Secular


    a Assailants gather outside Ministry of Defence to call for an end to military rule
    b - Demonstrations break out after President Morsi grants self increased power
    c,d - Continuing protests after the November 22nd declaration
    e - Demonstrations in Tahrir square, Port Said and all accross the country.
    f,g - Demonstrations at Tahrir square


    Ingmar Weber, Venkata R. Kiran Garimella, Alaa Batayneh, Secular vs. islamist
    polarization in egypt on twi.er

    More engaged = more polarized!

    Most people still centrist...

    Does media drive


    polarization?

    Media drives polarization


    Increased
    Media
    Polarization

    Increasingly
    Polarized
    People

    [We nd] a positive feedback process where


    voters watch slanted news, are inuenced to
    move closer to the news channels ideology,
    and subsequently have even stronger
    preference for that channel, due to the
    decreased ideological distance.
    ...
    A voter watching an hour per week of a news
    channel for a year would be inuenced to a
    new ideological position just under 10% of the
    distance to the channels ideology.
    Gregory J. Martin, Ali Yurukoglu, Bias in Cable News:Real Eects and Polarization

    Gregory J. Martin, Ali Yurukoglu, Bias in Cable News:Real Eects and Polarization

    Media drives polarization,


    polarization drives media
    Increased
    Media
    Polarization

    Increasingly
    Polarized
    People

    Models of polarization

    Which polarization?
    Polarized attitudes
    Polarized media consumption
    Polarized voting / behavior

    In the 1970s, about a quarter of Americans identied


    strongly with a political party. Media in the broadcast
    era were probably too centrist for these peoples tastes.
    Technological change has made it economically viable
    to cater to smaller audience segments.

    Nobody should be surprised that some strong
    partisans turned to more ideologically congruous
    media formats when they became available. But that
    audience migration alone does not constitute evidence
    that partisan media polarize Americans.

    Markus Prior, Media and Political Polarization

    Increased media choice drives


    polarized consumption
    Pre-existing
    polarized
    a^itudes

    Increased
    media choice

    Increasingly
    polarized
    media
    consumption

    Polarized media feedback cycle


    Increasingly
    polarized
    media
    consumption

    Media sources
    pick a side to
    gain viewer
    loyalty

    Increasingly
    polarized
    a^itudes

    Media Polarization Dynamics


    other factors
    Media choice

    Polarized consumption

    Creation of polarized media

    Polarized a^itudes

    Polarized behavior
    other factors

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