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Friday, February 05, 2010

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Survey 15k

Actual -20

Prior -85



Unemployment Rate

Survey 10.0%

Actual 9.7%

Prior 10.0%

Change in Manufact. Payrolls

Survey -20k



Prior -27

Revised -23

Avg Hourly Earnings

Survey 0.2%

Actual 0.3%

Prior 0.2%

Avg Weekly Hours Production

Survey 33.2



Prior 33.2

Nonfarm Payrolls

33.2 Actual 33.3 Prior 33.2 Nonfarm Payrolls Financial regulatory overhaul – British Finance Minister

Financial regulatory overhaul – British Finance Minister Darling says prefers global coordination - Darling reiterated that breaking up banks and going it alone was not the way to fight the crisis, preferring global


Darling says he doesn’t think the proposed “Volcker” rules are the right way to go


“Volcker Rules” may not survive skepticism in Congress; Dodd and Shelby have both made commentary critical of the proposal Bloomberg

Democrats dangle tax cuts to win Republican support for jobs bill; The emerging plan on jobs is to produce a package of tax cuts that could win Republican support. The core of the proposal would include a tax credit for employers who hire new workers in 2010 and a package of tax extenders, such as the research and development tax credit. The tax package would not include an estate tax provision – The

US Debt and Credit Rating – WSJ oped – the focus shouldn’t just be on balancing the budget; the key is how. The best way would be to engineer economic growth, and the tax cuts being proposed aren’t the way to go. WSJ

Fed – Hoenig says he dissented b/c of language – Hoenig said on Thurs that promising to keep rates low for an “extended period” isn’t appropriate as the crisis fades. “I didn’t dissent on rates,” Hoenig said in a speech in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. “I dissented on the language.”

Larry Summers foresees improved eco outlook - “

We’re not going to be out of the woods by any stretch,

but I suspect six months from now people are going to feel that this recovery is better established than

they do today

,” Bloomberg

Total equity fund flows (excluding ETFs) saw outflows of $1.1 bn compared to $1.0 bn of outflows last week. Domestic equity funds had $588 mm of outflows compared to $794 mm of outflows in the prior week. International and Global equity funds lost $465 mm of assets compared to outflows of $240 mm in the prior week. Worthington

Fundamental items weighing on stocks: 1) European sovereign concerns

– the usual suspects seeing

their CDS costs widen in Europe (an index of the PIIGS CDS is at the highest level since back in Feb/Mar ’09). There are worries that an imminent Greek strike will imperil that country’s efforts to cut its budget; a Spanish debt sale had to be cut; there is a political vote occuring in Portugal today that could

result in higher spending; etc.

– while the manufacturing economy has been very strong, this hasn’t translated into

the service sector (see yesterday’s non-manufacturing ISM) or to the jobs market (see today’s jobless claims). Labor has been the one missing piece of the recovery story and many are wondering if/when it will come. There are growing fears that tom’s BLS report will miss the St and show very large revisions;

– two actions today (both crossed around 11amET) worried investors (the Cuomo

lawsuit against BoA and the Boxer/Webb bonus tax bill)

Also – the ECB press conf today failed to allay market concerns.


economic worries

3) US gov’t actions