AGENT-BASED MODELS

Carelia Gaxiola
2015-1

OUTLINE

What is agent-based modeling?

Some examples

Building agent-based models

A DEFINITION

Agent-based modeling is a computational method

that enables a researcher to create, analyze and
experiment with models composed of agents that
interact within an environment.

A COMPUTATIONAL METHOD

ABM are models in the form of computer programs

Inputs:

Fixed parameter values

Experimentally varied parameter values

Outputs

Time varying observations of the model

Program

Representing the process/mechanisms that are

hypothesized to exist in the real world

SOME ADVANTAGES OF ABM

Precision

Completeness

Coherence

Explicit representation of process

And also

Heterogeneity

Multi-level

EXPERIMENTS

The classical design

Two isolated systems

One has treatment applied
One is a control

But difficult for social systems

Isolation difficult (impossible?)
Ethical problems
Cost

Computational

Experiment on the model, not the real system

EXPERIMENTING ON THE MODEL

Compare
Wind tunnels
Drug tests on rats

Multiple runs possible

average out the effect of random variation

Test the effect of varying input parameters

(sensitivity analysis)

VARIETIES OF ABM

Scale models
Smaller versions of the target
E.g. urban models

Ideal-type models
Some characteristics exaggerated
E.g. instantaneous Information flows between stock
market traders

Analogical models
Use a better understood analogy
E.g. garbage can model of organizations; computer
model of the mind

AGENTS

Distinct parts of a computer program, each of which represents a

social actor

Agents may model

Individuals
Firms
Nations
Etc.

Properties of agents
Perception
Performance
Memory
Policy

INTERACTION

Agents are not isolated

Information passed from one agent to another

Messages

Knowledge

Trails

Etc.

ENVIRONMENT

Options:

Geographic space

Analogues to space e.g. knowledge space

Network (links, but no position)

The environment provides

Resources

Communication

A FEW EXAMPLES OF ABM

Opinion dynamics

Markets

Industrial networks

Electricity supply regulation

Supply chain management

Participative modelling

OPINION DYNAMICS

an example of bipolarisation

Guillaume Deffuant, Frdric Amblard, Grard Weisbuch and Thierry Faure (2002)
How can extremism prevail? A study based on the relative agreement interaction model
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 5, no. 4
<http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/5/4/1.html>

MARKETS

Many agents trading with each other

Each trying to maximize its own welfare

Neo-classical economics assumes that markets are

at equilibrium, where the price Is such that supply
equals demand

But with agents, we can model markets in which the

price varies between localities according to local
supply and demand

AGENT STRATEGIES

An agent moves to the cell it prefers that is within its

range of vision to replenish sugar and spice stocks

But can also trade (barter) with other neighboring

agents

Agents trade at a price negotiated between them

when both would gain in welfare

INDUSTRIAL NETWORKS

Innovation networks in biotechnology

Knowledge level

Firm: Innovation

Sector: Collaboration

Market level

Firm: Costs and profits

Sector: Trade

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

A supply chain

Component manufacturers sell to

Assemblers sell to

Distributors

Retailers

Customers

Each has its own policies for inventory control and order
fulfillment

How can the throughput be maximized at minimum cost?

ELECTRICITY MARKETS

In many countries, electricity supply Is being privatized

Several competing suppliers

Each with own infrastructure or power stations with different characteristics

Efficiency

Start-up time

Cost per watt vs load

Time varying pattern of demand

No possibility of storage of electricity

How should one design the market?

Future markets?

Minimize environmental impacts

Mergers?

HUMANS AND AGENTS,

ALL IN THE SAME SYSTEM

Some agents can be people

Other agents in the same simulation can be computational

This gives the humans a bottom up view of what it is like to be an

agent in the simulation

compare with a flight simulation

This can be useful for

Training

Participative modeling

Users/stakeholders are involved in the design and implementation

Data collection (knowledge elicitation)

BUILDING ABM

Object-oriented programming

Production rule systems

[Neural networks]

OBJECT-ORIENTED
PROGRAMMING
206

Classes

Attributes

Methods

Developing multi-agent systems

Figure 9.3: Class hierarchy with attributes

Object
location

Agent
party
sub-type
acquaintances
aggression-level
...

Instances
Hardcore
Scan interval == 1

Hanger-on
Scan interval == 2

Obstacle
size
shape

Bystander
Scan interval == 8

PRODUCTION RULE SYSTEMS

Input message buffer

Action buffer

working
memory
Rule
interpreter
Production
rules
Output message buffer

TIME SCALES

Synchronicity

Sequential asynchronous execution

Random asynchronous execution

Simulated synchronous execution

Event-driven simulation

Calibrating time

RESEARCH STRATEGY
1. Identify some macro regularities
2. Specify the actors (agents)
3. Propose some micro behaviors
4. Build a model
5. Execute the model
6. Verify
7. Consider alternatives
8. Compare with empirical data
9. Derive theoretical and policy implications

LIBRARIES AND ENVIRONMENTS

Swarm

RePast

Mason

CORMAS

NetLogo

A VERY SIMPLE
NETLOGO MODEL
1. to setup
2.

clear-all

3.

create turtles 10

4. end
6. to go
7.

ask turtles [

8.

right [random 360]

9.

forward 1

10.
11. end

COLLECTIVITIES

Genres in music, film, novels

... and dialects, sub-cultures, specialties

You can tell who is in and who is out, but the

boundaries are vague, shifting and iII-defined

It is impossible to find objective criteria for their

information or membership

How could we model this?

The minority game

Plus innovation and selection

MICRO FEATURES

All members have some knowledge

All members wish to achieve high status

They believe that if they imitate high status they will gain status

Status is a function of exclusivity

this locates the member in knowledge space

High status members are relatively isolated in knowledge space

High status members wish to retain this status

So they seek out unoccupied areas of knowledge space

So:

Low status members want to get close to (imitate) high status members

High status members want to get away from low status members (differentiate)

THE MODEL

Agents in knowledge space (a toroid)

Agents initially located at random

Agent behavior:

Count how many other agents there are in its

neighborhood

If less than threshold:

Move towards the most popular local spot

Else:

Move away from the most popular local spot

COLLECTIVITIES MODEL

Figure 2: Snapshot of the simulation