Crculo de Empresarios
Madrid, April 2015
GLOBAL SETTING
2
Predictions 2015
Moderate and unequal acceleration
UK
2.7%
USA
3.1%
Mexico
3%
Spain
2.5%
Eurozone
1.5%
Russia
-3.8%
Germany
1.6%
France
1.2%
China
6.8%
ASEAN-5
5.2%
Italy
0.5%
Brazil
-1%
India
7.5%
South
Africa
2%
Japan
1%
Australia
2.8%
3
Last 30 years
60000
50000
40000
x 3,2
USA
x 5,6
Germany
x3,4
Japan
x 6,7
30000
Spain
20000
x10
x25
10000
0
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
Brazil
China
2014
TOTAL
2005 = 100
2015M3
2014M3
2012M3
2011M3
2010M3
2009M3
2008M3
2007M3
2006M3
2005M3
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2013M3
Non-energy raw
materials
Energy
Price of gold
1,45
10,00
1,38
1,35
1,32
9,50
1,31
9,20
9,47
9,00
8,62
8,32
8,50
8,10
8,00
7,50
1,07
6,65
7,00
6,50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2010
2015
2011
2012
2013
2014
141,69
145,00
0,9
0,88
140,00
0,89
135,00
0,85
0,8
2015
0,82
130,00
130,21
125,32
125,00
0,82
120,13
127,68
120,00
115,00
0,72
110,00
105,00
107,81
100,00
0,7
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2000
2002
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-7.5
-43.9
7.3
22.0
22.3
-40.4
23.9
16.1
-14.7
29.1
25.5
2.7
32.2
7.3
-4.7
21.4
3.7
CAC 40 (Paris)
-0.5
-33.7
7.6
17.5
1.3
-42.7
22.3
-6,0
-17.0
15.2
18,0
-0.5
Eurostoxx 50 (Euro)
-2.7
-36.6
6.9
15.1
6.8
-44.3
22.2
-6.8
-17.1
13.8
17.9
1.2
-10.2
-24.6
7.7
10.7
3.8
-32.0
27.6
9.0
-5.6
5.8
14.4
-2.7
S&P (USA)
-10.2
-23.3
9.3
13.6
3.5
-39.3
23.5
13.1
-0.3
11.8
31.5
11.4
-6.2
-16.8
3.7
16.3
6.4
-34.7
18.8
11,0
5.5
7.3
26.5
7.5
-27.2
-18.6
7.1
6.9
-11.1
-42.1
19.0
-3.0
-17.3
22.9
56.7
7.1
Dax 30 (Francfurt)
Risks
SPAIN
10
Development of GDP
5
4
Quarterly
4.1
Annual
2.6
3
2
0.9
0.5
1
0
-1
-0.8
-2
-1.6
-2,5
-3
-4
2015Q1
2014Q3
2014Q1
2013Q3
2013Q1
2012Q3
2012Q1
2011Q3
2011Q1
2010Q3
2010Q1
2009Q3
2008Q3
2008Q1
2007Q3
2007Q1
2009Q1
-4.3
-5
11
GFCF
Exports
2.7
2.8
GDP
0
-2
-4
-6
2013
2014
2015*
2016*
* Forecasts
Source: Bank of Spain, March 2015
These predictions are in line with those of FUNCAS, of 2.6% (2015) and 2.6% (2016),
and surpass those of the European Commission (2.3% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016), the IMF
(2.5% in 2015 and 2% in 2016), and the OECD (1,7% and 1.9%).
12
Underlying
0.2%
1,0
0,0
2014M03
2013M03
2012M03
2011M03
2010M03
2009M03
2008M03
2007M03
-2,0
2015M03
CPI
-0.7
-1,0
The annual general Consumer Price Index rose from -1.07% to -0.66%. For its
part, the underlying CPI (not counting energy and fresh foods) went from
0.15% to 0.20%.
13
Interest rates
Return on 10-year bonds in Spain and Germany
8,0
7,0
6,0
Risk premium
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
Spain
1,0
Germany
0,0
50
48
45.8
46
Spending
40
38
40.5
38.3
45.6
45.4
44.3
43.6
38.9
36.7
34.8
36.2
36.0
37.0
37.5
37.8
34
32
2006
Necessary
fiscal reform.
New measures
against fraud
and the black
economy.
41.1
40.9
36
30
Reform Public
Administrations
47.3
44
42
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
15
Germany
France
110
UK
Spain
100
90
-2
80
-4
70
-6
60
-8
50
-10
40
-12
30
France
Germany
Spain
UK
The State deficit until March rose to 9,854 million euros, some 3% more
than in the same period of 2014.
16
115,5
110
89,1
% GDP
100
90
Companies
83,4
80
70,7
70
Families
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Inhouse based on data from the Bank of Spain, 2015
17
26.9
23.8
9.6
18
26.1
26
25
25.0
24.4
24
23
22
21
22.2
21.6
20.1
20.5
20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
2016*
* Forecasts
Source: Bank of Spain, March 2015
19
Productivity
Starting in 2011, Spain will increase its productivity by reducing labor costs.
Development
labor costs,
2007-2014
Evolucin
costes of
laborales
unitarios,
2007-2014
2010=100
110
Germany
Alemania
105
France
Francia
100
RU
UK
Espaa
Spain
T4-2014
T3-2014
T2-2014
T1-2014
T4-2013
T3-2013
T2-2013
T1-2013
T4-2012
T3-2012
T2-2012
T1-2012
T4-2011
T3-2011
T2-2011
T1-2011
T4-2010
T3-2010
T2-2010
T1-2010
T4-2009
T3-2009
T2-2009
T1-2009
T4-2008
T3-2008
T2-2008
T1-2008
T4-2007
T3-2007
T2-2007
90
T1-2007
95
20
1.1
1,0
0,5
0.8
1.0
0.1
0.7
1.1
0,0
-0,5
-0.8
Other financial
assets*
Financial liabilities
-1,0
NET FINANCIAL
WEALTH
*Other financial assets: pension funds, insurance, fixed income...
21
7.2
8,0
7,0
6,0
5.3
5,0
4,0
3,0
Financial assets
Financial liabilities
4.2
2.7
NET WEALTH
2,0
1,0
2.0
0,0
1.1
-0.8
-1,0
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
22
Internationalization (I)
Historic change in the current account balance in 5 years.
After 26 years, the Spanish economy ended 2013 and 2014
with a surplus in its current account.
Evolution of Spanish current account, 2000-2015
% GDP
2
0,8
0,1
0,4
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-10,0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014* 2015*
Estimated*
Source: IMF, 2015
23
Internationalization (II)
Advance in the contribution of exports to the GDP:
from 22.7 % in 2009 to 32% in 2014
Exports. Main European exporters vs.
Spain
Exports
p as part of GDP
Variation,2009-2014
2009-2014
Variacin
350
World
Spain
250
Netherlands
200
Germany
150
Italy
UK
100
France
2013
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
50
1999
Chile
Chile
China*
China*
UK
RU
Korea*
Corea*
France
Francia
Germany
Alemania
USA*
EEUU*
Netherlands
Holanda
* 2013
Spain
ESPAA
300
Portugal
Portugal
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
X/GDP
X/PIB
2014
2014
24
Internationalization (III)
Diversification both geographically and by product is the key to
relaunching the Spanish exports.
Geographical diversification
Diversification by products
30
25
70,0
% of total 2014
Variation 2014/2013
60,0
Variation
20
15
50,0
10
40,0
30,0
20,0
-5
10,0
-10
0,0
% of total
-15
EU28
-10,0
America
Asia
Africa
Rest of Rest of
Europe world
-20,0
Source: Datacomex (2015)
Internationalization (IV)
Leadership in tourism 2014 was a record year
In the first quarter of 2015 there were 10.6 million arrivals of non-residents, an
increase of 5.3% over the same period of 2014, with more Asian and British
citizens. In the first quarter of 2015 their spending increased by 7% with regard
to the same period of 2014.
26
+9.8%
interannual
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
Productive
investment
Inversin
productiva
(sin ETVE)
Foreign
investors
in Spain en Espaa
Inversores
extranjeros
del
total
en 2014
variacin
2014/2013
%%of
total
in 2014
and yvariation
2014/2013
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
21,7
108,2
82,8
-12
-11,6
112,6
-41,8
-61,4
5,0
1.030
56,4
-71,2
0,0
27
28
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