May 7, 2015

Texas Terror Attack Short on Results, Long on Implications

A pair of homegrown jihadists

from Phoenix, sporting assault rifles and dressed in tactical vests, attempted an attack on a group of over 200 at a contest to
draw the Prophet Muhammad at a Garland, Texas conference center. The pari never achieved any more bloodshed than a
shot in the ankle of a security guard before being shot dead by police at the scene. It was revealed that one of the two, who
were roommates, a 30-year-old convert to Islam, previously planned travel to Africa to join in with an Islamist terror group in
Somalia. Prior to the attack he tweeted that the pair had pledged allegiance to Islamic State, adding, May Allah accept us as
mujahideen. The following day, ISIS took credit for the attack on their Iraqi-based radio station. Investigators in the U.S.,
however, believe the pair were inspired by Islamic State at best, and not operationally supported in any way.
Assessment: ISIS followed up its radio claim with a social media posting calling the Texas attack only the beginning and
claimed to have 71 trained soldiers in 15 different states ready at our word to attack any target we desire. Northeastern
University terrorism expert Max Abrahms addressed this in a tweet: Pro Tip: When evaluating #ISIS threats, always
remember terrorist groups are congenital liars bent on exaggerating their capability to harm. Additionally, b y terrorism
standards, the attack was a failure, so a trumped up claim of responsibility seems counter-intuitive. From the congenital
liars perspective then, their hope is likely to establish the idea of a presence in the U.S. and capitalize on future homegrown
attacks, which all experts agree are quite likely. Responders should be aware of the vulnerability of public place soft targets
as opposed to the event here which was fortified due to its provocative theme.

Scene of Shooting in Garland, Texas

Four Arrested in German Raids on anti-Muslim Terror Group

Three men and one womanall German nationalswere

arrested during raids conducted by 250 investigators on homes in Saxony and four other German states, on possession of explosives which authorities believe
were procured for attacks on well-known Salafists, mosques, and asylum-seeker centres, according to a statement released by prosecutors. Authorities
believe the four helped to establish the newly formed group, Oldschool Society (OSS), whose logo harkens to the Nazi SS with lightning bolts resembling the
SS runes, flanking a white skull (another SS symbol) on black background and bloodied meat cleavers. This week, German security officials also reported a
sharp increase in anti-foreigner and anti-Semitic crime in the last year.
Assessment: Violent extremists of varying ideologies threaten terrorism in Germany, as in many Western nations. The raids come a week after an
imminent attack on a bicycle race in Frankfurt was thwarted. Police arrested a married couple with ties to al Qaeda there and the traditional May 1 race was
cancelled; had an attack occurred it would have come within two weeks of the second anniversary of the Boston Marathon bombing. Responders should be
aware of all groups with the proclivity and capability of conducting terror attacks, as well as ideologies and movements which may inspire individuals to action.

Violence Accompanies House Fires

Coram man lit house fire, committed

suicide over property dispute

There have been multiple cases of violence or the threat of violence

confronting firefighters and other responders at the scene of house fires in recent weeks. In Connecticut, a woman punched a
firefighter trying to restrain her from reentering her home which she set on fire. A barricaded, suicidal Pennsylvania man
threatened to torch his home during a standoff with police. In California, a man soaked a car and home in gasoline and attempted
to light them up after grabbing a child in a domestic incident. In Victoria, British Columbia a man lit fire to his house after killing
his wife and then hung himself. And in both Greensboro, North Carolina and Bevercreek, Ohio, house fires accompanied
suicides. Finally, a man in Coram, NY lit his house on fire and then drove a few blocks away and committed suicide near a park.
Assessment: Domestic issues, often centered on family or property rights, may lead to desperation and despondency in
individuals to a level where irrational acts are accompanied by the symbolic lighting of a fire. Firefighters and other responders
typically operate on the assumption that victims desired to be rescued and otherwise pose no direct threat. Clearly this is not
always the case. Scene safety evaluation and size up should include any indications of violent actors at the location.

Judging the Threat: IS vs. AQ

A Brookings Institute blog titled, Why Al Qaeda poses a greater direct threat to the U.S. than ISIS, which was
th
built off of Congressional testimony to a House Homeland Security subcommittee on April 29 , clearly defines author Daniel Bymans professional assessment
of IS vs. AQ. Byman cites al Qaedas focus on the U.S. as a primary enemy versus Islamic States desire to conquer and hold territory in the Middle East, as
well as some outlier areas in sections of the Muslim world. For IS, terrorism is an adjunct to a more conventional struggle, one that is rooted in civil wars in
Iraq and Syria. Al Qaeda, on the other hand, plots terrorism spectaculars to electrify the Muslim world, and to convince the United States to retreat. Others
offer al Qaeda as the mature group and Islamic State as a rock-star upstartwith less potential reach. Without available resources to plan international
attacks, the Islamic State group relies on supporters in the West to plan their own operations.
Assessment: Islamic State continues to capture headlines. Its persistent propaganda maneuvers tend to create an over-inflated aura of threat to the West.
For now, attacks are likely to be by inspired homegrown jihadists, similar to Charlie Hebdo or Garland, whereas al Qaeda is more likely to strive for the
spectacular. Going forward, Byman sums: The Islamic States fate is tied to Iraq and Syria, and reverses on the battlefieldmore likely now that the United
States and its allies are more engagedcould over time reduce its appeal.

Recognizing the Allure of IS The events in Garland, Texas this week, along with the recent spate of arrests of U.S.
persons seeking travel to join jihadists in the fight in Syria has led to a search for answers as to Who are ISIS American recruits?
Not surprisingly, there is no single profile of the 62 individuals that have been identified in the U.S., as recruits hail from a range of
demographics. The group includes a significant portion of females and teenagers. However, according to author/analyst Peter
Bergen, The only profile that ties together American militants drawn to the Syrian conflict is that they are active in online jihadist
circles. Another profile of Islamic State recruits from Europe points to a disproportionate percentage of converts to Islam, such as
was the case with one of the two Garland attackers. In addition to arrests of those seeking travel to Syria, evidence of the allure of
the Islamic State is found in suspicious activity reporting (SAR), graffiti, and other propaganda reported in the U.S.
Assessment: Having established that there is an allure begs the question, why? According to Bergen, in the minds of ISIS
recruitsthe group is doing something of cosmic importance that in their view is sanctioned by Allah. Many believe it to be a
perfect Islamic state; a real state with plentiful social services where they may find perfect marriage partners. Other motivations
include the chance to be a part of something glamorous and even exciting, and for many who ascribe to a culture of death, IS
represents a vanguard of Muslim warriors who will usher in the End of Times. The savvy use of social media appeals to many
youth, of which some tend to be lost souls searching for answers. Emergency responders should recognize signs of
radicalization and utilize local SAR.

ISIS-inspired Graffiti

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