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Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models

Cammey Cole Manning


Meredith College

May 16, 2011

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 1/16

SIR Models
Assume viruses spread through contact or close
proximity between infected and healthy individuals.
Omit a crucial point:
How disease is spread through a population.

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 2/16

SIR Models: Population Classes

Susceptibles (S): Individuals in the population who


have not been infected, but are at risk.
Infectives (I): Individuals who are infected and are
capable of transmitting the disease.
Removed (R): these are individuals who can no longer
contract the disease because they have recovered with
immunity, have been placed in isolation, or have died.

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 3/16

SIR Model: Population Assumptions


Population is well-mixed
Any two individuals are equally likely to encounter
one another.
Population is closed
No births or deaths
No migration
N = S + I + R, where N is the total number in the
population.

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 4/16

SIR Model: Equations


SI
N

Rate infected individual gives rise to new infections

I
N

Proportion of infected individuals in the population

S NI

Rate at which susceptible individuals encounter


infected individuals and become infected.
Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 5/16

SIR Model: Equations

Rate of recovery once infected

I Rate at which infected individuals are removed


from the infective class.

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 6/16

SIR Model: Equations


SI
N

dS
SI
=
dt
N
dI
SI
=
I
dt
N
dR
= I
dt
Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 7/16

SIR Model: Equilibrium

dR
= I
dt
I = 0
S+R = N

Consider two specific times S + R = N


S = N, R = 0
Before disease begins spreading
S = 0, R = N
After disease has moved through entire population
Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 8/16

SIR Model: Basic Reproductive Number R0


R0 Average number of secondary infections that occur
when one infective is introduced into a completely
susceptible host population
When the disease begins spreading,
S0 = N
For the disease to begin spreading,
dI
>0
dt
Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 9/16

SIR Model: Basic Reproductive Number R0


Consider when S0 = N and

dI
dt

> 0:

dI
dt

> 0

S0 I
I > 0
N


S0
I > 0
N
( )I > 0

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 10/16

SIR Model: Basic Reproductive Number R0


Thus, the basic reproductive number is

R0 =

where
represents the rate an infected individual gives
rise to new infections
1

represents the infectious period

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 11/16

SIR Model: Basic Reproductive Number R0

R0 =

R0 < 1: The infection dies out and there is no epidemic


R0 > 1: The infection will be established in the
population. Infection peaks and then disappears

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 12/16

SIR Model: Plots for R0 = 0.25 and R0 = 4


with 1% Infected Initially
R0=0.25

R0=4

100

100
S
I
R

90
80

80
70
Number Infected

Number Infected

70
60
50
40

60
50
40

30

30

20

20

10

10

S
I
R

90

10

15
20
Time (in Days)

25

30

10

15
20
Time (in Days)

25

30

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 13/16

SIR Model: Plots for R0 = 0.25 and R0 = 4


with 20% Infected Initially
R =0.25

R =4

100

100
S
I
R

90

80

80

70

70
Number Infected

Number Infected

90

60
50
40

60
50
40

30

30

20

20

10

10

10

15
20
Time (in Days)

25

S
I
R

30

10

15
Time (in Days)

20

25

30

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 14/16

SIR Model: Plots for Various R0


S
I
R

R0=1
100

80

80

80

60

40

40

20

10
15
20
Time (in Days)

25

30

Number Infected

80
60
40

20

10
15
20
Time (in Days)

25

10
15
20
Time (in Days)

30

25

30

25

30

25

30

100

100

80

80

60

40

10
15
20
Time (in Days)
R =20

20

20

40

100

60

R =10

R0=3

60

Number Infected

Number Infected

100

20

Number Infected

R0=1.5

100

Number Infected

Number Infected

R0=0.5

60

40

20

10
15
20
Time (in Days)

25

30

10
15
20
Time (in Days)

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 15/16

References
Mathematical Models in Biology by Leah Edelstein-Keshet, SIAM,
2005.

The Mathematics of Infectious Disease by Herbert W. Hethcote,


SIAM Review, Vol. 42, No. 4, p. 599-653, 2000.

The Geographic Spread of Infectious Disease: Models and


Applications by Lisa Sattenspiel with contributions by Alun Lloyd,
Princeton, 2009.

Basic Epidemiology: SIR Models p. 16/16