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INDIAS TOP RESIDENTIAL

DESTINATIONS TO INVEST IN
Investment Advisory Report November 2012

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

This report identies the


top residential

INTRODUCTION

destinations in the
country from the
investment point of view
over the next ve
years (2013-2017)

Balancing return with the associated risk is the


focal point of any investment decision. Equity and
debt are considered to be the mainstream asset
classes. However, the tradeo between return
and risk in both these asset classes is strikingly
dierent. While equity as an asset class is
associated with high returns albeit with a greater
risk score as measured by volatility, a relatively
stable debt investment comes with a larger
compromise on returns.
Real estate, the third mainstream asset class,
oers the best combination of returns and risk.
From the perspective of return, real estate
investment in India has garnered superior returns
in comparison to other asset classes over a long
term. Further, an investment in residential

property is generally done with leverage in the


form of a housing mortgage. This leverage further
increases the potential for earning higher returns
since the initial equity contribution is a fraction of
the property value.
From the perspective of risk, property investment
fares better because asset price generally
remains stable. It has been established that an
investment in real estate based on sound
research can seldom go wrong. In the sense that
in comparison to an asset class like equity which
is dependent on several factors related to the
underlying business like protability, leverage
and corporate governance, a real estate
investment is based on the underlying asset. A
sound research is inherently founded on deep

IMPORTANT TERMS USED IN THE REPORT


We have developed a
framework built on topdown approach in the
selection of the ve most

TERM

MEANING

Metropolitan region

The urban region as dened by the regional development authority

Zone

A Zone is a geographical division of the metropolitan region comprising of several


localities that possess similar characteristics in terms of access to employment hubs,
connectivity and demography. In most cases, the metropolitan region is divided into 4-5
zones that are labeled as Central, South, North, West and East

Destination

Destination is the most promising residential locality from the perspective of investment

Benchmark location

Identied based on the nearest price contour, a benchmark location is an established


residential locality that has saturated in terms of real estate growth and infrastructure
development and is considered as the most sought after residential market within the
zone. With respect to price forecasting for the destination, a benchmark location, preferably
in the same zone, becomes the reference point

Property price
contour map

This map splits the geography of a city in accordance with the prevailing residential
property price. Residential markets falling within a contour line command price identied
by such line

Investor Return

It is the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) for a typical investor in residential property

Assumptions for
calculating Investor
Return

Size of property: 1000 sq. ft.


Loan to Value ratio: 60%
Loan tenure: 20 years

Residential Property
Price (` per sq.ft.)

The price indicates the average capital value in the residential market of the destination
and benchmark locations

Hidden Gem

Locations where we expect the real estate drivers to gather momentum beyond year 2017

promising cities and zones


within them and bottomup approach in the
selection of top
investment destinations

Investment horizon: 5 years


Mortgage rate: 10.5% pa

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

From the perspective of


risk, property investment
fares better because asset
price generally remains
stable

In most cases, investment


in real estate is fraught
with decisions based on
gut feeling and tips which
result in pOor
investments. Hence, an
investor has to clearly
delineate a real estate
investment from
speculation

understanding of the property market along with


the study of factors that drive it.
Real estate is an asset class where an educated
investor can mitigate the risk and enjoy the
associated superior returns at the same time.
Coupled with the other mainstream asset classes,
this investment vehicle can make for an optimally
diversied portfolio. In most cases, investment in
real estate is fraught with decisions based on gut
feeling and tips which result in poor
investments. Hence, an investor has to clearly
delineate a real estate investment from
speculation.
The global nancial crisis of 2008-09 has brought
about a striking change in the attitude of
investors. This change towards expectation on
investment returns, growth and risk does not
single out any one asset class but applies to most
of the assets whether it is equity, debt,
commodity or real estate. Amidst this changed
scenario it is evident that an advice on
investment in any asset class cannot be generic.
Real estate as an asset class is the foremost
example that will witness the challenge thrown by
this tenet particularly in this tough economic
scenario. Even within real estate as an asset
class, the judgment on investment outlook on
commercial real estate and residential real estate
cannot be a unied one. The dominant factors
that drive investment returns for both these are
diverse to a great extent. Hence, the investment
opinion should take into account each of these
factors.

Although the prominence of real estate as an


asset class is increasing, the investment research
in the subject lags much behind in comparison to
other asset classes. With this report, we will make
an incipient foray into the subject by identifying
the top residential destinations in the country
from the investment point of view for the next ve
years (2013-2017). The destinations are
residential markets that we expect will
outperform in terms of the investor returns on
account of the appreciation in property prices. We
have developed a framework built on top-down
approach in the selection of the ve most
promising cities and zones within them and
bottom-up approach in the selection of top
investment destinations. Since real estate
activities are not restricted to city limits, we have
considered the entire metropolitan region in our
analysis. Our understanding of the local property
market and experience in dealing with
parameters that determine an urban centres
growth equips us to develop the framework for
this pioneering report.
While selection of the top residential investment
destinations remains the core of this report, we
also present ve locations, where we expect the
real estate drivers to gather momentum albeit
during the elongated time horizon beyond 2017.
These locations have been identied as hidden
gems in the report.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Regional growth within a

APPROACH FOR IDENTIFICATION OF THE TOP RESIDENTIAL


INVESTMENT DESTINATIONS

city is anything but even


and the direction of such
growth is a critical
factor in determining the
fate of a particular
residential property

India
Urban centres

Top 100 cities


Top 100 cities based on population

Top 5 cities
Business activity:
Banking penetration, hotel room demand, air passenger traffic
Infrastructure development:
Current and proposed infrastructure expenditure

Zone
Employment:
Occupied office space, industrial activity
Social & physical infrastructure:
Analysis of development plan of respective
authorities and extensive field survey

Destination
Connectivity with
important locations
Access to social
infrastructure
Special factors:
Proximity to
premium office
space, land
availability,
lifestyle shift,
planned
development

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

From the growth and


investment perspective,
zones that have high

METHODOLOGY &
APPROACH

concentration of business
activity at present and
projections of meaningful
increment in future will

Selection of top cities in the country

have a comparative
advantage over others
that have saturated on
this

The top residential destinations have been picked


from the universe of all urban centres in the
country. In this multi stage selection, each
parameter was chosen in a manner that captures
the cause and eect relationship of such
parameters with the growth of residential
development in the city.
The population base of a city is a crucial indicator
of the potential of its housing market. In the rst
stage of selection, top 100 cities were identied
based on their population. The extent of business
activity and thrust on infrastructure development
are critical factors aecting the housing market
and accordingly these selected 100 cities were
studied. Banking penetration, hotel room
demand and air passenger trac were
considered as surrogates for business activities
and current and proposed infrastructure

expenditures were taken as proxies for


infrastructure development. The cities were
ranked on these individual parameters and based
on the average ranking Mumbai, Delhi,
Bengaluru, Chennai and Pune emerged as the top
ve cities.
With the fundamental prerequisite already in
place, these ve cities are well prepared to
participate in the growth trajectory for the
foreseeable future. While a framework was
prepared and top cities were identied, our
endeavour was even more specic. We have
striven to provide a crystal clear view on
investment destinations for a typical investor in a
residential property. This objective meant
identication of residential destinations that
would outperform others on the investment return
scale.

Selection of zone within a city


Regional growth within a city is anything but even
and the direction of such growth is a critical
factor in determining the fate of a particular
residential property. We therefore, split each city
into 4-5 zones to capture the quantum and
direction of such growth. This spilt into dierent
zones is based on the homogeneity of
characteristics with respect to access to
employment centres, social and physical
infrastructure and demography.
The selection of a preferred zone depends on the
perspective of such selection, which diers
depending on the purpose of purchasing property
which is either end-use or investment. From the
growth and investment perspective, zones that
have high concentration of business activity at
present and projections of meaningful increment
in future will have a comparative advantage over
others that have saturated on this. Growth of
business activity will create abundant
employment opportunities which in turn will lead
to a rise in inward migration and high demand for
residential property in these zones. Hence, we
identied the driver industries in each zone and
assessed the impact of their business activity on

the kind of employment generated by such


industry. We have captured the extent of
employment generation by measuring the
quantum of occupied oce space at present and
for the next ve years.
A regression model capturing the impact of
change in revenue of driver industry on change in
occupied oce space was developed. Revenue
projections for rst two years were based on the
revenue guidance by the respective industry
associations. Projections for the remaining three
years were based on the moving average trend of
the preceding ve years. Also, the upcoming
supply of oce space in next ve years in all the
zones was analysed to understand the balance
between the incremental employment and
upcoming oce space. Thus a crystal clear view
on employment potential in a particular zone has
been provided. The service sector has emerged as
a driving force in most of the cases with the
Information Technology and Information
Technology enabled Services (IT/ITeS) industry
emerging as a dominant employment driver.
Besides the quantum of employment generation
in the driver industry, the nature of jobs in

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

The service sector has


emerged as a driving force
in most of the cases with
the Information
Technology and
Information Technology
enabled Services (IT/ITeS)
industry emerging as a
dominant employment
driver

accordance with its position in the value chain in


the industry was taken as a dierentiating
element. For instance, employment in software
development within the IT/ITeS industry has a
dierent impact on the income prole of
employees in comparison to that in the Business
Process Outsourcing (BPO) role. This dierence in
income prole will impact aordability in a
diverse manner.
Besides employment, the other important factor
from the growth and investment perspective is
infrastructure development. Regional
development plans and eld visits to the zones
equipped us to assess the scope of infrastructure

development that will have an impact on


residential markets within a zone. We assessed
the impact of existing and upcoming physical
infrastructure like road, rail and airport projects
on the residential markets of each zone. Presence
of social infrastructure comprising education,
healthcare and recreation was also reviewed.
We selected 1-2 zones having the most promising
future on account of the growth in the quantum of
occupied oce space and incremental
infrastructure development. Over the foreseeable
future, these preferred zones will be the biggest
beneciaries because they fall in the direction of
movement of employment and infrastructure.

REAL ESTATE DRIVERS


Business activity

Besides the quantum of

Infrastructure

Commercial Oce Space

Industrial

Physical

Social

IT Sector

Manufacturing

Connectivity

Education & Healthcare

Basic utilities: Water & Power

Entertainment

Non IT Sector

employment generation in
the driver industry, the
nature of jobs in
accordance with its
position in the value chain
in the industry was taken
as a dierentiating
element

Selection of Destination
within zone
All the residential markets within the preferred
zone will benet on account of the growth in
employment opportunities and infrastructure
development. However, a few of these will have a
comparative advantage over others. A bottom-up
approach was adopted to analyse the existing
and proposed connectivity and social and
physical infrastructure facilities. The approach
was modelled based on our eld visits to each of
the residential markets in the preferred zone and
discussions with various stakeholders. This
primary survey coupled with our real estate
expertise helped us to arrive at the best
destinations from the perspective of investment.
The destinations have been analysed vis--vis a
benchmark location which is an established
residential locality that has attained a relatively
higher saturation level in terms of real estate
growth and infrastructure development and is
considered to be one of the most sought after
residential markets within the zone. The

benchmark location for each destination has


been identied based on the nearest price
contour. With respect to price forecasting for a
destination, a benchmark location, preferably in
the same zone, becomes the reference point.
As mentioned earlier, our analytical focus was
primarily to understand the state of the subject
markets connectivity with important locations
and social and physical infrastructure facilities
available currently and also in the foreseeable
future. However, in certain destinations there
were variations with respect to factors impacting
future price movements like:
Proximity to premium oce markets: Wadala,
one of the selected destinations in Mumbai,
will benet due to its connectivity with the
premium business district of the Bandra Kurla
Complex (BKC).
Limited land availability: Limited land
availability will limit the scope of new

.
.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Over the foreseeable


future, the preferred
zones will be the biggest

beneciaries because they


fall in the direction of
movement of employment
and infrastructure

continuing with our


intention of undertaking a
thread bare analysis and
providing an unequivocal
investment view, we have
quantied the capital
appreciation and the
resultant investor
returns for investment in
these destinations

construction and put an upward pressure on


property prices in destinations like Chembur
in Mumbai.
Lifestyle shift: Destinations like KR Puram in
Bengaluru possess the potential to provide a
lifestyle shift, which is possible generally in
projects developed on large land parcels that
facilitate high rise premium developments
with plush amenities.
Planned development: Lack of social
infrastructure remains a concern in some
destinations as of now. However, on account
of being in the planned development region,
education, healthcare and recreation facilities
will eventually come up in destinations like
Ulwe in Mumbai.

While dynamics of a residential market with


respect to the demand-supply scenario were
considered to understand its depth, the impact of
factors like quality of projects, premium or
aordable category, on property price was also
assessed. It is of paramount importance to
assess all these factors in comparison to the
benchmark locality and also other localities
within the zone. Further, these factors have to be
viewed in the context of the prevailing property
price. Destinations chosen are denitely the ones
that would outperform other locations on the
investment return scale. However, continuing
with our intention of undertaking a thread bare
analysis and providing an unequivocal
investment view, we have quantied the capital
appreciation and the resultant investor returns for
investment in these destinations.
As mentioned earlier, to forecast the price
movement of a destination, we have considered
the price of a benchmark location as the
reference point. The assumption is that the
destination price will grow at a faster pace (as
compared to the benchmark location price)
because of its relatively higher level of increasing
developmental activities. As a result of this, the
current price discount of the destination will
reduce, making price convergence imminent in
the future.
In the rst stage, we have forecasted the price of
a benchmark location. Empirical evidence
indicates that price variation of established
residential markets is signicantly explained by
the changes in economic activities. In line with
this, we have conducted iterations to identify the
explanatory variables that strongly inuenced
property price movement in the benchmark
locations. Indias economic growth has been
identied as the most signicant factor
explaining the price movements. Regression
equations have been estimated for each of the
identied benchmark locations and price has
been forecasted till 2017.

TOP INVESTMENT
DESTINATIONS RANKED IN
ORDER OF INVESTOR RETURN
DURING THE NEXT 5 YEARS
Investor returns per annum

#4 Noida
Extension

#3 Chembur

22.9%

25.5%

22.3%

#1 Ulwe

#2 Wadala

27.0%

29.0%

#5 Dwarka
Expressway
#8 Ravet
#7 Hinjewadi
#6 Medavakkam

21.2%

20.6%

20.1%

#9 Tathawade
20.0%
#10 Hebbal
#11 Pallikarnai
#12 Wakad
#13 KR Puram

18.6%

18.7%

19.1%

19.3%

In the second stage, the price discount of a


destination has been forecasted for the next ve
years. In order to achieve this, we studied the
impact of dierent factors on prices of the
benchmark location over the last decade. These
factors include:
Incremental employment generation in the
zone.
New infrastructure projects.
Reduction in time to commute between the
benchmark location and important places in
the zone.

.
.
.

Our analysis shows that the occurrence of one of


the above mentioned factors or a combination of
them accelerated the growth of residential
property prices in a benchmark location before it
stabilized and emerged as a relatively developed
market. Assuming that the destination will have a

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

REGION-WISE TOP INVESTMENT DESTINATIONS FOR NEXT 5 YEARS


Empirical evidence
indicates that price

Forecasted Price Appreciation in Percentage

variation of established
residential markets is

NORTH

signicantly explained by
the changes in economic
activities

#1 Noida Extension

108%

#7 Wakad

91%

97%
#6 Ravet

100%

98%
#5 Tathawade

#4 Hinjewadi

133%

125%
#3 Chembur

#2 Wadala

#2 Dwarka Expressway

EAST

WEST

#1 Ulwe

145%

NCR

Mumbai

111%

Pune
Bangalore

#2 Hebbal

#4 KR Puram

94%
91%

#1 Medavakkam

Chennai

#3 Pallikarnai

103%

93%

SOUTH
similar impact of incremental employment
generation and new infrastructure projects, the
property price in the destination has been
forecasted by applying an estimated discount
factor on the future price movements of the
benchmark location.
Our research indicates that aordability will keep
a resistance on price movement in many
destinations. Hence, we have created an income
pyramid of the employees in the driver industry.
This pyramid is a distribution of all the employees
according to their income. Thus, a ceiling was
applied to our destination price forecast as per
the change in this pyramid for the forecast
horizon.

Additionally, in cases where land availability is


not a concern, price growth will not breach the
aordability threshold of the target consumer
group. As a result of this factor some destinations
did not qualify for the projected price growth and
were dropped from the top destinations list.
For a typical investor in residential property what
matters is the eective return resulting from the
leverage provided through the housing loan. The
same has been calculated and labelled as
Investor Return arising out of investment in
under construction residential property, in these
top destinations over a period of the next ve
years. Property specication and investment size
available at a destination along with select
residential projects have also been provided in
the report.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

in cases where land

Risk factors for our outlook

availability is not a
concern, price growth
will not breach the
aordability threshold
of the target consumer
group

Our forecast for occupied oce space relies


largely on the service sector led by the IT/ITeS
industry. The sectors revenue growth during the
next ve years will have an impact on the
employment, which is one of the biggest drivers
of real estate. For the IT/ITeS industry, the
revenue growth estimates for the initial two years
have been taken from the industry association
and for the remaining three years they have been
taken as the preceding ve year moving average
growth rate between 10-12%.
While the Indian IT/ITeS industry is
interconnected with the global economy, reputed
research studies have highlighted the
interlinkage between the domestic manufacturing
sector and this industry. As a result, the weak
global economy and a slowdown in the domestic
manufacturing sector will have a direct impact on
this industry. Our analysis puts a great emphasis
on the fate of the IT/ITeS industry because of its

emergence as a signicant employment provider


in three of the top ve cities.
The BFSI industry has a meaningful role in the
employment trend in cities like Mumbai and
Delhi. We have considered a revenue growth rate
of 17-21% based on the preceding ve year
moving average growth rate for this industry.
The employment generated by these industries
has a signicant impact on our forecast for
occupied oce space. Hence, any major
deviation in their revenue growth will have an
adverse impact on our forecast for occupied oce
space and therefore the fate of the respective
destination.
Additionally, in several cases, the fate of the
destinations is linked to the delivery of
infrastructure projects, which makes our analysis
vulnerable to any signicant deviation from the
progress timeline of such projects.

KEY takeaways
. With property options ranging from
.
.
.
.

`3,200/sq.ft. to `15,000/sq.ft. and investor


returns in the range of 18.6% - 29% pa
residential real estate will emerge as a
promising asset class for the next ve years.
With seven destinations, the western region
has the highest number of promising
residential investment options.
The top three investment destinations, with
investor returns in excess of 25% pa, are from
Mumbai.
Only Mumbai ranks ahead of the top
investment destinations of the NCR, the
biggest residential market in the country.
Enhanced connectivity and the proposition of
the diplomatic enclave will signicantly benet
the Dwarka Expressway, placing it in high

ranks on the investment return scale.

. The IT/ITeS industry is the driving force behind


the growth in most of the destinations.
. With four investment destinations, Pune has
.
.
.

the maximum number of promising residential


property options.
IT/ITeS, Automobile and Engineering sectors
are the primary employment drivers in Pune
The destinations in Chennai will immensely
benet from the growth of the IT/ITeS and
Automobile industries in Tamil Nadu during the
next ve years.
IT/ITeS and Bio-technology sectors will be the
driving forces behind the growth of
destinations in Bengaluru.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

BENGALURU

Bengaluru (also known as Bangalore), the capital of Karnataka is located


in the south-eastern part of the state. The city is located at an
altitude of 950m. above the sea level, thereby making its climate very
serene. Bengaluru is the third most populous city of India with a very diverse
demography. It is also known as the Garden City of India. It houses the
largest number of Information Technology (IT) and Information Technology
Enabled Services (ITeS) companies in India for which it earned the
sobriquet of the Silicon Valley. It also houses numerous public sector
companies including defence, aerospace and bio-technology.
Bengaluru urban agglomeration is known as Bengaluru Metropolitan
Region (BMR) comprising Bengaluru urban district, Bengaluru rural district
and Ramanagara district. The Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike
(BBMP) is in charge of the civic administration of the city. The corporation
is spread over an area of 741 sq. km. Bangalore Metropolitan Region
Development Authority (BMRDA), an autonomous body created by the
Government of Karnataka is the nodal agency looking after the overall
development of the BMR. During the last two decades the population
growth was phenomenal in the BMR. It rose at an annual rate of 3.9%
during 2001-2011, primarily due to a huge inux of IT/ITeS employees.

BENGALURU METROPOLITAN
REGION POPULATION
Population in Millions

1991

4.84

5.2%

Population

2001

6.54

3.1%

2011

9.59

3.9%

Average Annual Growth

Source: Census 2011, Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

BENGALURU MAP
Major Roads
Railway Line
Existing Metro
Under Construction
Proposed Metro
South Zone
West Zone
Central Zone
East Zone
North Zone
Price Contours (`/ sq.ft)

3500
CHIKKA
BOMMASANDRA
Bangalore International
Exhibition Centre

Nagasandra

Nagawara

6000
15000

Whiteeld

B Halli Terminal

MG Road

VARTUR

Mysore
Road

Kengri

Puttenahalli

Gottigere

Boomasandra
Anjanapura/NICE Junction

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Bengaluru Metropolitan

Market Overview

Region (BMR) is spread over

741 sq. km.

The BMR market can be divided into ve broad


zones: Central, West, North, East and South.

9.59 mn.
population in the BMR, an
increase of

98%

last two decades

in the

ZONE

MAJOR RESIDENTIAL
DESTINATIONS

Central

MG Road, Vitthal Mallya Road,


Frazer Town, Lavelle Road,
Richmond Road, Langford Town

West

Malleswaram, Rajajinagar, Tumkur


Road, Vijayanagar, Yeshwanthpur

North

Banaswadi, Hebbal, Bellary Road,


Hennur, Yelahanka, Jakkur, HBR
Layout

East

Whiteeld, Old Airport Road, Old


Madras Road, KR Puram

South

Koramangala, Sarjapur Road, HSR


layout, Jayanagar, JP Nagar,
Bannerghatta Road, Kanakapura
Road

South Bengaluru, a locale which until the mid1990s housed a strong Kannada (native language of
Karnataka) speaking population now boasts of
being a cosmopolitan region. This was mainly on
account of a huge inux of population from all over
India. Electronic City located on Hosur Road in the
south emerged as the rst IT hub of Bengaluru in
1990. Many IT giants like Infosys, HCL
Technologies, HP, Wipro, Genpact and Siemens
have setup their campuses in this region. With the
setting up of these companies, the South
Bengaluru region became a preferred commercial
as well as residential destination. The availability of
land, strong infrastructure and presence of the
middle-income segment have contributed to the
development of this zone. The residential clusters
in proximity to the Electronic City like Sarjapur,
Koramangala, Jayanagar, BTM Layout,
Bannerghatta Road and Hosur Road have attracted
a large number of immigrants especially the IT
employees. Social infrastructure like the availability
of quality hospitals, prestigious educational
institutions and retail malls are some of the major
reasons behind residential demand in this part of
Bengaluru.
This region started losing its charm since 1998
when the Government of Karnataka announced the
new international airport at Devanahalli - a town
located in the north of Bengaluru. Major IT/ITeS
companies started acquiring land closer to the
airport in the north for their expansion. They
refrained from buying any new land in this region,
hampering the overall growth of the South
Bengaluru region. In this bargain North Bengaluru

emerged a better investment destination compared


to the south.
The new international airport at Devanahalli
commenced in 2008. By virtue of this, North
Bengaluru became one of the most sought after
destinations of Bengaluru. Numerous real estate
and infrastructure projects were announced to
enhance the connectivity between Bengaluru city
centre and the airport; this included High Speed
Rail Link (HSRL), monorail and Metro rail. Moreover,
to generate employment in this region, the
government in association with private companies
earmarked large investments; such as KIADB Park,
Airport Township - Aerotropolis, Information
Technology Investment Region (ITIR), Devanahalli
Business Park (DBP) and Global Finance District
(GFD). These also attracted a lot of institutional
buyers like real estate developers and
hoteliers.This region is on the cusp of becoming the
new commercial business district (CBD) of
Bengaluru. Hence it is worthwhile to explore this
region with respect to the real estate investment.
Major micro-markets covered under this zone are
Hebbal, Devanahalli, Yelahanka and Hennur.
Before 1990, the eastern zone was home only to
some of the reputed heavy manufacturing
industries like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
(HAL), BEML and ITI that were instrumental in the
growth of this region. With the dawn of the IT sector
some of these industries have gradually turned into
tech-parks. Proximity to the Outer Ring Road (ORR)
coupled with the availability of graded oce space
attracted major IT/ITeS companies in the eastern
zone. This fuelled the expansion of commercial and
residential development in this region.
Consequently, Whiteeld, CV Raman Nagar, Brooke
Field, Old Madras Road, Indiranagar, KR Puram, Old
Airport Road, Mahadevapura, Hoodi Circle and Sai
Baba Ashram emerged as the preferred residential
destinations among the IT employees. Moreover,

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN BENGALURU
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

54,075

31,733

31,236
20,608

Launches

24,741

14,439

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF BENGALURU

176,832

residential

* Till September 2012

units launched since 2007

2007 2008

in the BMR

2009

2010

2011

2012*

No. of Units

32%
25%
180,000
160,000
140,000
100,000

85,808

80,000
60,000

units

launched and 54,687 units

9%

120,000

11%

14%

5%

40,000
20,000

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

absorbed during 2010 and


2011 in BMR

Old Madras Road, Whiteeld Road, ITPL and Varthur


Road emerged as a business district having many
tech-parks, SEZs, captive campuses and business
centres.

57% of underconstruction units are in


North and East Bengaluru

Pennya industrial estate


spread over

266 acres -

one of the largest


industrial areas in Asia

Central Bengaluru is the commercial and retail


heart of the city with various corporate oces
located in micro-markets like the MG Road, Vitthal
Mallya Road, Commissariat Street, Ulsoor and
Lavelle Road. Excellent connectivity with various
parts of the city, good physical and social
infrastructure along with the presence of organized
retail has ensured the highest property prices in
this part of the city. The prominent residential
micro-markets of this region include MG Road,
Langford Road, Richmond Town, Lalbagh Road,
Vitthal Mallya Road, Residency Road and Fraser
Town. Majority of the residential developments in
the central locations are bungalows and
independent residential units, however some
pockets like Richmond Town, Richmond Road,
Malleshwaram Pipeline Road and MG Road are
witnessing growth in multi-storey high-rise
constructions as well.
Primarily an industrial hub, West Bengaluru houses
one of the largest industrial areas of Asia Peenya
Industrial Area. There are huge setups of several
renowned engineering, transformers, motors and
generator companies here. Being an industrial hub,
this region was not caught in the IT/ITeS wave of
the mid-1990s, that transformed South and East
Bengaluru as one of the most sought after
residential markets. However, this region gained a
lot of traction with the announcement of the
upcoming infrastructure projects viz. elevated
expressway, metro and the road connectivity along
the Tumkur Road. Micro-markets such as
Malleswaram, Yeshwantpur, Rajajinagar, BEML
layout, Mysore Road, Nagarbhavi,
Basaveshwarnagar, Tumkur Road and Jalhalli West
received the necessary impetus for growth.
Growth of the IT/ITeS sector along with the setting
up of bio-technology units and other large national
and multinational manufacturing units have

changed the dynamics of Bengaluru real estate


market. Apart from generating thousands of new
jobs for the local residents, Bengaluru has been
able to attract a large pool of migrants into these
sectors from across the country. This has enabled
the real estate market to grow at a tremendous rate
in the last ve years especially the residential
segment that witnessed the launch of over 176,832
units since 2007.
Bengaluru residential market witnessed the launch
of 85,808 units in the last two years (i.e. 2010 and
2011) accounting for almost 49% of the total units
launched since 2007. During the same period
54,687 units were absorbed in the Bengaluru
residential market. South and East Bengaluru
witnessed a major chunk of launches and
absorption during this period mainly on account of
their proximity to the IT hub of Electronic City and
Whiteeld Road. Over the period this region has
emerged as a self-sustaining micro-market
attracting many IT employees.

ZONE-WISE SPLIT OF UNDER


CONSTRUCTION UNITS
30%

27%

42%
East

North

South

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
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62

km. Outer Ring Road

Real Estate Drivers

connects all the major IT


hubs from North to South

Employment Indicators

Infrastructure Development

Service Sector

Manufacturing Sector

Rail Network

Road Network

IT Sector

Biotech Sector

Bangalore Metro Corridor I & II

Pheripheral Ring Road

Monorail Corridor

Elevated Road / Expressway

High Speed Rail Link

Infrastructure Development
EXISTING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK
ROAD NETWORK

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

Outer Ring Road (ORR)

62 km.

ORR provides connectivity with all the major highways around the
city. Passing across the major suburbs viz. Hebbal - KR Puram Marathahalli - Sarjapur Rd. - Silk Board Junction

Nandi Infrastructure Corridor


Enterprises (NICE)
Ring Road

42 km.

Long peripheral road, connecting Jalahalli in the north with the


Electronic City on Hosur Road in the South. The corridor connects
Mumbai and Chennai through NH-4 in the western region and NH7 in the southern region respectively. Initially a four-lane structure
with provision for expansion upto six-lane. NICE Ring Road has
enabled trac from Mumbai to move directly to Chennai without
crossing downtown Bengaluru

Hosur Road (NH7)

40 km.

A four to eight-lane national highway (Part of NH7) connecting


Bengaluru city with Hosur, a town in Tamil Nadu. The Hosur Road
passes via the Electronic City one of the largest IT industrial parks
of Bengaluru

Bengaluru Elevated Toll-way

10 km.

A 10 km. long elevated and tolled expressway connecting


Bomanahalli to Electronic City

Metro rail operational


between Byappanahalli
and MG Road since Oct 2011

EXISTING SUBURBAN RAIL NETWORK


METRO TRAIN NETWORK

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

Metro Train Network


Phase I, Reach I

6.7 km.

Reach I, a 6.7 km. part of the East-West corridor, connecting


Byappanahalli with MG Road is operational since October 2011

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UPCOMING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK


A

33

km. High Speed Rail

Link proposed - will


operate between Cubbon
Road and Bengaluru
International Airport

116

CONNECTIVITY & LENGTH

OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Road widening from Hebbal


to Bengaluru International Airport
20 km.

A six-lane elevated road over the


existing road connecting with the
international airport is under
construction. The elevated stretch that
starts from Kodigehalli gate will be a
six-lane highway extending over 4 km.
The project will have a series of seven
yovers from Hebbal to the Trumpet
Junction near the airport

Under
Construction

2013-14

High Speed Rail Link (HSRL)


33 km.

A 33 km. HSRL has been proposed,


that will connect the city centre with
the airport. The HSRL will operate
between Cubbon Road and Bengaluru
International Airport with two halts in
between, one at Hebbal and another
at Yelahanka.

Five
consortiums
shortlisted

Post 2016

Monorail Project
41 km.

Bengaluru Air Rail Link Ltd. (BARL) has


proposed 31 km. monorail from JP
Nagar (south) to Hebbal (north) and
10 km. between Peripheral Ring Road
(PRR) and Magadi Road. This project
will function as a feeder service to metro
rail as well as the international airport

Proposed

Post 2015

Peripheral Ring Road (PRR)


116 km.

A 116 km. PRR has been proposed, it


will connect the entire peripheral
arterial road linking all the major
highways and the district roads. Major
connecting area would be Hosur Road
to Tumkur Road via KR Puram, Bellary
Road, Old Madras Road and Sarjapur
Road. The PRR is expected to ease the
congestion on the ORR

Pre-feasibility
stage

Post 2016

Bengaluru Metro Rail Phase I


42 km.

a) A 24 km. North-South (NS) metro


corridor has been proposed, it will
connect Hesaraghatta circle (in north)
with Puttenahalli (in south)

Under
construction

2014-15

In-principle
approval
received from
the Govt. of
Karnataka.
Awaiting
approval from
the Urban
Development
Department
Ministry

Beyond 2016

km. Peripheral Ring

Road proposed connecting Hosur Road to


Tumkur Road via KR Puram,
Bellary Road, Old Madras
Road and Sarjapur Road

b) An 18 km. East-West (EW) metro


corridor has been proposed, it will
connect Byappanahalli with Mysore
Road (Reach I, a 6.7 km. part of the EW
corridor, connecting Byappanahalli
with MG Road is operational since
October 2011.)
Bengaluru Metro Rail Phase 2
72 km.

a) Phase II envisages extension of the


Metro Phase I, on the NS corridor. To
the north it will be extended upto
Bengaluru International Exhibition
Centre (BIEC) and to the south it will be
extended upto NICE Junction
b) EW corridor is planned to be
extended upto Whiteeld to the east
and Kengeri to the west.
c) Further, two new lines have been
planned in Phase II, one connecting

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UPCOMING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK


Over

2,000 IT & ITeS

companies present in

CONNECTIVITY & LENGTH

OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Bengaluru including more


than 100 Fortune-500

Rashtreeya Vidyalaya (RV) Road with


Bommasandra in the South,
Electronics City on the Hosur road with
the city centre

companies

d) Another line will be parallel to the


NS Corridor of Phase I, running
between Nagawara in the north and
Gottigere in the South. It will have two
interchange stations, one at MG Road
and another at Jayadeva hospital

Bengaluru generates
software exports worth

`700 bn.

650,000 IT

Elevated corridor from Central Silk


Board Junction to Jayamahal Road
15 km.

A 15 km. elevated corridor connecting


Central Silk Board Junction to
Jayamahal Road is envisaged to ease
the trac ow between North and
South Bengaluru. This will also
facilitate in reaching the new
international airport in the North.

Pre-Feasibility
stage

Beyond 2015

Construction of elevated corridor


between Jnanabharathi and
Old Airport Road
28 km.

A 28 km. West-East elevated corridor


Pre-Feasibility
along the Ring Road connecting
stage
Tumkur (Jnanabharathi) with Old
Airport Road. The corridor will pass
through Sirsi Circle, Town Hall, Hudson
Circle, Vellara junction and Old Airport
Road. The proposed corridor is
expected to ease the East-West city
trac ow

Beyond 2014

Bengaluru - Mysore Expressway


140 km.

A six-lane expressway connecting


Bengaluru with Mysore is under
construction. Only peripheral part of
56 km. has been completed till date.

Beyond 2017

professionals directly
employed in Bengaluru

Land
acquisitions

IT/ITeS and Bio-technology


sector are the driving
factors for Bengaluru's
growth

Employment Indicators in Bengaluru


Bengaluru is the IT and Bio-technology capital of
India. It also houses numerous Government
promoted heavy industries including defence
organizations, scientic establishments,
aerospace and telecommunication companies. It
also has renowned Indian educational institutions
oering a plethora of job opportunities.
However, Bengalurus economy is primarily
driven by the IT/ITeS sector and bio-technology
sector.

IT/ITeS SECTOR
Over 2,000 IT/ITeS companies, including more
than 100 Fortune-500 companies have
established their operations in Bengaluru. These
companies in all, generate software exports worth
`700bn. and directly employ over 650,000

professionals. Prominent Fortune-500 companies


operational in Bengaluru are IBM, Dell, HP,
CISCO, Sun Microsystems, Microsoft, Toyota, ING,
Tesco, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman
Sachs, Bosch and Tyco. Prominent Indian IT &
ITeS companies like TCS, Infosys, Wipro and
Mahindra Satyam have major operations in the
city.
Bengalurus IT/ITeS sector accounts for almost
one-third of Indias IT/ITeS revenue and almost
half of the Indian Bio-Technology companies are
located in Bengaluru. These sectors play a very
vital role in the growth of commercial and
residential real estate in Bengaluru.
IT/ITeS companies have been predominantly
concentrated in South, South East Bengaluru and
the Outer Ring Road (ORR) stretch from Hebbal to

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IT/ITeS sector constitutes

70% of the total oce


space in Bengaluru

Currently the total oce


space stock in Bengaluru
is 92 mn. sq.ft. of which
79.80 mn. sq.ft. is occupied

Silk Board junction. This region houses many


renowned tech-parks, IT/ITeS SEZs and captive
campuses of Fortune-500 IT companies. Micromarkets along Whiteeld, Electronic City, ORR,
Sarjapur and Bannerghatta Road have developed
into self-sustaining hubs. East Bengaluru has
over 37 mn. sq.ft. of oce space. Apart from the
large campuses of IT/ITeS companies such as
Dell, TCS, L&T Infotech, GE, HP and iGate, there
are numerous standalone commercial oce
buildings like Brigade Metropolis, Prestige
Shantiniketan, Embassy Crest, ITPB, GVR Tech
Park, SJR iPark and Salarpuria Tech Park across
the IT hub of Whiteeld in East Bengaluru.
Electronic City Industrial Park located in the
southern region is spread over 330 acres having
over 45 mn. sq ft. of oce space including the
captive oces. It is divided into three phases, of
which one is completely dedicated to the biotechnology sector, while the other two predominantly house IT/ITeS sector companies.
Major companies having oces here are Infosys,
Wipro, HCL, Genpact, Siemens, TCS and Mahindra
Satyam. Non-captive commercial oce spaces
include SJR Equinox, Harita IT Park, Global Tech
Park, SVR Fortunae and Hiranandani Upscale.

OFFICE SPACE BREAK-UP

70%

30%

Source: Knight Frank Research

BENGALURU OFFICE
SPACE DYNAMICS

160
140
120
100
80
60

mn. direct and indirect

JoBS TO BE GENERATED BY
2020 IN BENGALURU

The ORR stretch between Hebbal to Silk Board


Junction acquired importance with the
commencement of the Bengaluru International
Airport in 2008 in Devanahalli. This stretch serves
as a main junction between the airport and the
established IT hub of Bengaluru i.e. Electronic
City and Whiteeld. This stretch has large multitenanted IT parks. Major IT parks include Manyata
Embassy Business Park, Salarpuria Supreme,
Cessna Business Park and Prestige Tech Park.
The countrys IT/ITeS sector grew at an annual
rate of 22.5% to `1,474bn. during 2004-2011 and
is estimated to reach `3,000bn. by 2017. As per
NASSCOM, the IT/ITeS sector has created
tremendous job opportunities, generating over 11
mn. direct and indirect jobs. It is
estimated that the sector would create
over 14 mn. by 2015 and close to 30 mn. jobs by
2030. Bengaluru forms one-third of the countrys
total IT/ITeS revenues. We expect Bengaluru to
continue its growth trajectory in-line with the
countrys IT/ITeS growth. Further, the Government
of Karnataka proposes to increase employment
opportunities in the software export eld to about
2 mn. by 2020 from 0.65 mn. at present.
With the strengthening of the global economy,
robust domestic fundamentals and easy
availability of skilled human capital the IT/ITeS
industry here is expected to grow signicantly in
the coming years.

40
20

before 2009 2010


2008

2011

2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

ZONE WISE DISTRIBUTION OF


OFFICE SPACE STOCK
12%

27%

11%

15%
36%
Central

West

South

East

North

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

USD

10

BIO-TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
bn. the size of

Indian Bio-technology
sector by 2015. Current size
USD 4 bn.

40% of the country's


bio-technology sector
contributed by Bengaluru

India is ranked among the top 12 biotechnology


destinations in the world and third largest in the
Asia-Pacic region. The Government of Karnataka
is committed to establishing a Biotech corridor
for the development of the biotech industry in
Karnataka. The corridor in Bengaluru shall extend
from the Indian Institute of Science to the
University of Agricultural Sciences. Karnataka has
a large number of biotech companies, such as
AstraZeneca India, Biocon India, Cadilla,
SmithKline Beecham and Wockhardt.
The Indian Bio-technology Sector is expected to
grow to USD 10 bn. by 2015 from USD 4 bn.
posted in scal 2010-11. Bengaluru has emerged
as a Biotech capital of India, accounting over
40% or USD 1.6 bn. of the countrys total
revenues. Of the 380 biotech rms across the
country, 52% or 198 are located in Karnataka and
50% or 191, are in Bengaluru owing to rich human
capital and cost advantage over peers overseas.
Currently the total oce space stock in Bengaluru
is about 92 mn. sq. ft. of which 80 mn. sq. ft. is

occupied, resulting in a vacancy level of 13%.


Bengaluru retained the top slot for the highest
oce space absorption in the country in FY 2012,
despite global uncertainties looming large on the
horizon. The citys oce market clocked
absorption of almost 12 mn. sq. ft. during FY 2012,
translating into an increase of 10% over the
absorption witnessed in FY 2011. The IT/ITeS
industry still remains the key demand driver for
oce space in Bengaluru. Going forward, we
expect another 50 mn. sq. ft. of new oce space
to be added to the existing inventory in the next
ve years, taking the total stock to 141 mn. sq. ft.
by the end of 2017.
The recent slowdown witnessed by the IT/ITeS
sector globally, is expected to impact the
incremental absorption of oce space in
Bengaluru in the ensuing years. However, a delay
in the delivery of new projects will lower the
vacancy levels to 12% by the end of 2017. We
have forecasted an incremental demand of 44-45
mn. sq. ft. over the next ve years taking the total
occupied space in the city to 124 mn. sq. ft. by the
end of 2017.

STATUTORY COSTS
AND MARKET NORMS
STATUTORY COSTS

380 biotech companies


in India - 50% alone in
Bengaluru

COST

DETAILS

Stamp duty

5% (On ready reckoner rate)

Registration

1% (upto a maximum of `30,000)

VAT

7% (on agreement value)

Service Tax (on underconstruction property)

3% (on agreement value)

MARKET NORMS
NORM

DETAILS

Time line for property registration

Any time until possession

Re-sale before possession

Allowed

Transfer charges payable to builder

`200-300 psf

Loading (as % of carpet)

33%

Remarks

Investor friendly market. Gains from lower Stamp Duty are taken back by
higher VAT rate. Eectively, taxes are higher in comparison to Mumbai
and Pune

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NORTH BENGALURU MAP

Yelahanka Satellite Town

Major Roads
Proposed Metro
Airport
Railway Line
Benchmark location

HEBBAL

Top destination
Employment Hubs

EAST BENGALURU MAP

KR PURAM

Whiteeld

KR Puram

B Narayanapura
B Halli Terminal

Mahadevapura

Hudi
KIADB Export
Promotion Area

CV Raman Nagar

International Technology
Park Bangalore (ITPB)

EPIP Zone

MG Road

Brookeeld

WHITEFIELD

Major Roads
Existing Metro
Proposed Metro
Monorail
Proposed
Major Roads
Airport
Railway Line
Line
Railway
Benchmark location
location
Benchmark
Top destination
destination
Top
Employment Hubs
Hubs
Employment

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

bengaluru dominance in the


BPO/KPO sectors have won
it a place in the dictionary
as Bangalored meaning
Outsourced

South Bengaluru micromarkets lost its charm


post the commencement
of the Bengaluru
International Airport in
North Bengaluru

We anticipate North and


East Bengaluru to be the
biggest beneciaries of
the BIA and expect them to
emerge as the new Central
Business Districts (CBD) of
Bengaluru within the next
decade

PREFERRED
ZONES IN
BENGALURU
Bengaluru was a laid-back city till the mid-1990s
when the IT boom reshaped it into a major city of
India. Many large domestic IT companies as well
as the Fortune-500 companies set-up their oces
here giving a boost to the Bengaluru real estate
market. Today, Bengaluru has become the
software hub of India, commonly known as the
Silicon Valley of India. Its dominance in the KPO
(Knowledge Process Outsourcing) and BPO
(Business Process Outsourcing) sectors have won
it a place in the dictionary as Bangalored
meaning Outsourced. We believe Bengalurus
dominance in the IT/ITeS sector will continue in
the foreseeable future.
As per the fundamental economics of the real
estate sector, the price appreciation depends on
two factors - employment and infrastructure
development (connectivity). This phenomenon
has been witnessed in the South and South-East
regions of Bengaluru. In the mid-1990s, since the
growth of the IT/ITeS sector many large IT parks
and campuses have been set-up in the Electronic
City (south) and Whiteeld (south-east) region.
This attracted many software engineers to
Bengaluru consequently leading to demand for
residential real estate. Micro-markets such as
Bannerghatta Road, Kanakpura, Sarjapur Road, JP
Nagar, Jaya Nagar, Whiteeld, Varthur,
Mahadevapura, CV Raman Nagar, Uttarahalli, KR
Puram and Electronic City have emerged as
residential markets. However, South Bengaluru
destinations lost their charm post the
commencement of the Bengaluru International
Airport (BIA) near Devanahalli in North Bengaluru.
As a natural phenomenon for the real estate
sector, all focus including government,
corporates and general public at large, has now
shifted northwards a new growth corridor for
real estate.
We expect North and East Bengaluru to be the
biggest beneciaries of the BIA and expect them
to emerge as the new Central Business Districts
(CBD) of Bengaluru within the next decade. This
can be further substantiated by the numerous
infrastructure projects undertaken by the
government such as High Speed Rail Link (HSRL),
Metro Lines, monorail and the Peripheral Ring
Road that are at various stages of construction.
On completion, these projects will enhance the
connectivity of the city centre with the BIA.

Availability of huge land parcels along the road


between the city centre and the BIA has attracted
many large corporates.
Residential end-users at large prefer residing in
Northern Bengaluru as against the south; this
was not the case 4-5 years back. The change in
preference was mainly on account of shifting of
the airport to the north near Devanahalli. We
expect the stretch from Hebbal to Yelahanka in
the north to gain large price appreciation in the
next ve years mainly on account of its proximity
to the airport, connectivity with the city centre
and upcoming social infrastructure.
East Bengaluru in itself is a well-developed and
self-sustaining zone. At its core, Whiteeld as a
micro-market has evolved over the years. It has
become one of the most preferred destinations
for the IT/ITeS employees, as it is close to the IT
corridor of Whiteeld and ITPB. It also has a welldeveloped social infrastructure (school, hospitals
etc.) and a well-organized retail market.
Moreover, this region will have smooth
accessibility to the airport with the proposed 116
km. Peripheral Ring Road (PRR). The PRR will link
Hosur Road with Tumkur Road via KR Puram,
Bellary Road, Old Madras Road and Sarjapur
Road. Hence markets like KR Puram, Whiteeld,
Budigere Cross and Old Madras Road will see
some good traction in the next 4-5 years.
Therefore, based on the above developments we
believe North and East Bengaluru regions will
witness good traction over the next ve years.

NORTH
BENGALURU
The focus of the GOK over the last decade has
clearly been North Bengaluru. By shifting the
Bengaluru International Airport (BIA) near
Devanahalli in the north thereby replacing old
HAL Bengaluru International Airport, GOK has
substantiated its intention in developing North
Bengaluru. Since the new airport is 40 km.
outside the city, GOK has also planned Mass
Transit Systems (MTS) like monorail, Metro-Line
and High Speed Rail Link (HSRL) to enable
travellers to reach the airport faster. Also,
commuter rail system has been planned to
connect Devanahalli with Yeshvantpur via
Yelahanka. Additionally, widening of the NH-7
upto BIA from the existing six-lane to eight-lane is
under process. This can sustain higher trac due
to airport expansion and expected real estate
developments on either side of the NH-7. Further,

INVESTMENT
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Indias Residential Destinations

`1,150 bn.
Investment earmarked for
North Bengaluru

4 mn. direct and


indirect employment to be
genereated over next 3
decade in North
Bengaluru

the GOK is also developing the Peripheral Ring


Road (PRR) as an eightlane expressway along
the periphery of Bengaluru for a total road length
of 116 km. that will connect all the periphery
regions to the airport. Availability of vast vacant
land parcels close to the airport and along the
road leading to the airport has enabled GOK to
plan projects worth `1,150bn., including
Devanahalli Business Park (DBP), Aero SEZ,
Information Technology Investment Region (ITIR),
Bio-Technology, Aerotropolis and many other
recreational developments.
Further, the GOK has also invited many
corporates to set-up their units/oces in North
Bengaluru. Many large companies such as HAL,
BEML, Infosys, Dynamatic Technologies Ltd, IFCI
and Tata Elxsi have signed an MoU with the GOK.
55 multinational IT companies including Infosys,
Wipro, TCS and Cognizant have evinced interest
in setting up their oces in the ITIR. Over 1.2 mn.
people are expected to get direct employment
from the ITIR and over 2.8 mn. indirect
employment. Employment due to the ITIR in itself
speaks about the growth of this region. These
developments are expected to completely change
North Bengaluru from an unexciting location to a
bustling self-sustaining city.
Growth of the residential market in this zone has
been primarily along the Outer Ring Road (ORR)
such as Hebbal, Sahakara Nagar, Dollars Colony,
RT Nagar, Banaswadi, Mahadevapura and
Nagwara. However, post commencement of the
BIA in 2008, the stretch from Hebbal to BIA is

42,329

witnessing residential developments. Proximity to


the airport and to the commercial hub of
Manayata Tech Park has made this pocket of
Bengaluru the preferred residential location by
the IT population.
As on September 2012, North Bengaluru has witnessed
a total of 42,329 residential units being launched
since 2007. Of this a total of 28,785 units have
been absorbed resulting in 32% remaining
unsold. Over the years, unsold units have risen
mainly on account of low pace of absorption due
to uncertain global markets. Announcement of
new projects has come down in the rst 9m
of 2012, as only 5,075 units have been launched
against the 13,355 units launched in 2011. The
excess supply from the previous years has had an
adverse impact on the unsold units percentage.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN NORTH BENGALURU
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

13,355

7,269

7,069
5,608

5,075

3,953

Source: Knight Frank Research

Launches

units

launched and 28,785 units


absorbed since 2007 in

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF NORTH BENGALURU


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*
32%

27%

50,000

No. of Units

North Bengaluru

40,000

15%
14%

30,000
20,000

14%

12%

10,000

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

ORR accounts for almost

35% of the total oce

Existing
Infrastructure

space of Bengaluru.

OUTER RING ROAD (ORR)


Outer Ring Road popularly referred to as the ORR
is a stretch connecting Hebbal in the North and
Silk Board Junction in the South. This 62 km.
stretch has been developed as an IT growth
corridor in the last ten years. The ORR stretch can
be further classied into four parts based on its
respective characteristics as a) Hebbal - KR Puram
b) KR Puram - Marathahalli c) Marathahalli
Sarjapur Road and d) Sarjapur Road Silk Board
Junction. Of these (a) and (b) form part of northeast Bengaluru and (c) and (d) form part of
south-east Bengaluru. The new growth corridor
for IT development opened up in Bengaluru only
in 2002 after the completion of the ORR. The ORR
now accounts for almost 35% of the total oce
space of Bengaluru. Proximity to the airport and

to the commercial hub such as Manyata Tech


Park, RMZ Ecospace, RMZ Ecozen, Salarpuria
Supreme, Cessna Business Park, Ferns Icon, and
Bagmane World Technology Centre has made this
pocket the most sought after destination. Growth
of the residential market in this zone has been
primarily along the ORR such as Hebbal,
Sahakara Nagar, KR Puram, Whiteeld, CV Raman
Nagar, Indiranagar, Marathahalli, Bellandur,
Varthur Road, Dollars Colony, RT Nagar,
Banaswadi, Mahadevapura and Nagwara. The
Doddaballapur Road, Hennur Road and Hebbal
areas that are connected with the international
airport road are now hotspots for property
development.The plan to make the Outer Ring
Road (ORR) a signal-free, seamless corridor will
have far-reaching implications on the growth
along its route.

Upcoming
Infrastructure
HEBBAL TO BIA ROAD
Hebbal to BIA road project
is expected to reduce the
travel time between Hebbal
to BIA from 45 minutes to
20-25 minutes

A 3.72 km. six-lane elevated road over the


existing road is under construction. The project
will have a series of seven yovers from Hebbal to
the Trumpet Junction near the airport. The
elevated road starts from the Kodigehalli gate
and connects to the international airport. This
project by the National Highway Authority of India
(NHAI) is at various stages of construction from
Hebbal to the Yelahanka railway-under-bridge. It
will also have yovers and underpasses. Once the
project is completed it will enhance connectivity
with the city centre and the drive to the airport
will become seamless and signal-free. This
project is expected to reduce the travel time
between Hebbal to BIA from 45 minutes to 20-25
minutes.The project is expected to be ready by
2013. The Doddaballapur Road, Hennur Road,
Yelahanka and Hebbal areas that are connected
with the International Airport Road are now
hotspots for property development.
As per the project plan, the 3.72 km. stretch from
the Hebbal yover to the beginning of Yelahanka
Bypass (near GKVK) will be an elevated stretch.
From the Yelahanka Bypass to the Trumpet interchange (the gateway to BIA), all the major

junctions will be made signal-free. Towards the


end, two yovers will come up at the Kogilu Cross
and Vidyanagar junctions, while four
underpasses will come up at other crucial
junctions.

ELEVATED CORRIDOR FROM


CENTRAL SILK BOARD JUNCTION
TO JAYAMAHAL ROAD
A 15 km. elevated corridor connecting Central Silk
Board Junction with Jayamahal Road is envisaged
to ease the trac ow between North and South
Bengaluru. This will also facilitate in reaching the
new international airport in the North.

MONORAIL
A 31 km. monorail has been proposed by the
Bengaluru Air Rail Link Ltd. (BARL) that will
connect JP Nagar (in south) with Hebbal (in the
north). After completion, this project will function
as a feeder service to the metro rail as well as to
the international airport.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Manyata Embassy Business


Park has over 7.5 mn. sq. ft.
stock and 9.4 mn. sq. ft.
under construction

METRO-LINE
A 24 km. North-South (NS) corridor connecting
Hesaraghatta circle near Nagasandra (north) with
Puttenahalli (south) has been proposed. Along
with this, there are also plans (under Metro Phase
II) to extend the Metro line from Hesarghatta up
to the BIA. These signicant projects will add
value to the property along this route.
The region has a demand for residential,
commercial and retail spaces. With plans for the
development of an aerospace Special Economic

Zone (SEZ), IT SEZ and creation of separate


workspaces in the vicinity of the airport, there is
also a huge supply of residential layouts.

HIGH SPEED RAIL LINK (HSRL)


A 33 km. HSRL has been proposed and will
connect the city centre with the airport. The HSRL
will operate between Cubbon Road and BIA with
two halts between them, one at Hebbal and the
other at Yelahanka. The HSRL will run parallel to
the expressway.

Employment Indicators in
North Bengaluru

North Bengaluru region


is expected to
generate direct and
indirect employment of
over

4-4.5 mn. in

the next decade

North zone of the city has a host of civic


infrastructure projects, large commercial
developments and new residential options that
have changed the characteristics of the localities
over the last few years. Bengaluru International
Airport has been the main catalyst for the change
in this region. The monorail, Metro Rail and
Bengaluru-Mysore Infrastructure Corridor (BMIC)
project as well as the social infrastructure
facilities are together set to drive Bengaluru
further ahead.
The existing major employment driver in this
region is the IT/ITeS sector. However, in future the
incremental employment in this region will be
generated from the planned commercial
developments such as ITIR, Aero SEZ, Devanahalli
Business Park, Aerotropolis and Global Financial
District. Cumulatively the GOK has envisaged an
investment of `1,150bn. in the North Bengaluru
region and is expected to generate direct and
indirect employment of over 4-4.5 mn. in the next
decade.

Further, there is the aerospace SEZ that is being


planned here besides three industrial parks on
3,000 acres of land. Many renowned hotels like
Oberoi, JW Marriot and Fortune are also planned
here. There is plenty of commercial development
in the pipeline, with several developers having
bought huge land parcels for development in the
stretch from Hebbal to Devanahalli. With so much
commercial development, we expect residential
development to follow suit in this region making
it the most sought after destination in the next 45 years.
Few builders who have planned residential
projects in North Bengaluru are Brigade Group
with their Gateway, Ozone Developers with their
integrated project called Urbana, Prestige with
their Ozone and Golfshire Projects, Hiranandani
Upscale with their Chancery, Nitesh with their
Columbus Square and Sobha with their Althea.
Since 2008 over 7.5 mn. sq. ft. of oce space
including captive oces has been constructed in

EMPLOYMENT HUBS IN NORTH BENGALURU


SECTOR

PROJECT NAME

MAJOR COMPANIES

IT/ITeS

Manyata Embassy Business Park

Philips, IBM, ANZ

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

space stock in North


Bengaluru is 7.7 mn. sq.ft.
of which 6.26 mn. sq. ft. is
occupied

We expect another

9.5

mn. sq.ft. of new oce


space to become
operational by 2017

Over

30 mn. sq. ft. of

IT/ITeS space is operational


as of June 2012 in East
Bengaluru

23,689 units launched


and 15,946 units absorbed
since 2007 in East
Bengaluru

North Bengaluru. Over the next ve years 9.6 mn.


sq. ft. of oce space is expected to be added to
the existing inventory thereby taking it to 17.1 mn.
sq. ft. by the end of 2017. However, demand is
expected not only from the IT/ITeS sector but also
from the aerospace sector, logistic companies
and nancial sectors. Excessive demand for
quality oce space has kept vacancy levels in
lower single digits in 2011 and we expect it to
remain at that level till 2017. We forecast an
incremental 7.3 mn. sq. ft. of oce space to be
absorbed over the next ve years.

NORTH BENGALURU OFFICE


SPACE DYNAMICS

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2

Preference of the companies to be in close


proximity of the airport, and employees
preference to stay closer to their workplace will
overall drive the demand for commercial as well
as residential real estate in this location.

before 2009 2010


2008

2011

2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

EAST BENGALURU
East Bengaluru had similar characteristics as that
of Bengaluru city. Being a nondescript zone until
the mid 1990s, the region gained prominence only
after the IT boom of the 1990s. Proximity to the
city centre and huge availability of land attracted
many IT/ITeS companies here. Over 30 mn. sq. ft.
of IT/ITeS space is operational as of June 2012.
Major IT/ITeS hubs like Salarpuria Hallmark, ITPB,
RMZ Ecospace, Prestige Shantiniketan and
Bagmane World Centre have made this pocket of
Bengaluru the preferred residential location by IT
population. Further, with the growth of
population, this region had a great deal of social
infrastructure to provide entertainment options to
the residents. Growth of the residential market in
this zone has been primarily along the Whiteeld
Road, KR Puram, Old Madras Road, Old Airport

Road, ITPL, CV Raman Nagar, Mahadevapura,


Hoodi Circle and Indira Nagar.
As on September 2012, East Bengaluru has witnessed a
total of 23,689 residential units being launched
since 2007. Of this a total of 15,946 units have
been absorbed resulting in 33% remaining
unsold. Over the years, unsold units have risen
mainly on account of low pace of absorption due
to high number of launches. Announcement of
new projects has continued with its high
momentum and 9m 2012 witnessed the launch of
5,415 units as compared to 6,400 units launched
throughout 2011. Excess supply from the previous
years has an adverse impact on the unsold units
percentage.

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF EAST BENGALURU


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*
33%

21%

25,000

No. of Units

Currently the total oce

20,000

10%
4%

15,000
10,000

4%

0%

5,000

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

15.5 km. metro rail

line has been proposed


under Phase-II of the
Bengaluru Metro

Existing
Infrastructure
CONNECTIVITY FROM OLD
MADRAS ROAD TO DEVANAHALLI
The distance between the Old Madras Road
(OMR) in the East and Devanahalli in the North is
over 40 km. There are two major routes that
connect the city centre in the east with the airport
near Devanahalli in the north. The rst route Baiyappanahalli Hebbal BIA is a 40 km. drive

along the ORR. The second route starts on the NH75 near Baiyappanahalli o the Old Madras Road.
It then connects with the airport via NH-648 near
the Hoskote Industrial area. This stretch has also
witnessed a lot of residential traction post the
commencement of BIA. Manyata Tech Park,
Whiteeld Road, ITPB, Hoskote Industrial Park
and other IT space on the ORR are the major
developments fuelling demand for residential
houses in this pocket.

Upcoming
Infrastructure
PERIPHERAL RING ROAD (PRR)

The new metro line


stretch, a part of EastWest corridor, will start

A 116 km. PRR connecting the entire


peripheral arterial road linking all the major
highways has been proposed. The major
connecting areas would be Hosur Road
(south) to Tumkur Road (west) via KR Puram
(east), Bellary Road (north), Old Madras
Road and Sarjapur Road (south). The PRR is
expected to ease the congestion on the
ORR.

from the Byappanahalli


and terminate at
Whiteeld on the East

EAST BENGALURU OFFICE


SPACE DYNAMICS

60
50
40
30
20
10

before 2009 2010


2008

2011

2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

METRO-LINE
A 15.5 km. metro rail line has been proposed
under Phase-II of the Bengaluru Metro. This
is the extension of the existing metro line
which runs between Byappanahalli and MG
Road. The new metro line stretch, a part of
East-West corridor, will start from the
Byappanahalli and terminate at Whiteeld
on the East. This corridor has 14 metro
stations - Jyothipuram, KR Puram,
Narayanapura, Mahadevapura,
Garudacharpalya, Doddanakundi,
Visvesvaraya Industrial Estate,
Kundalahalli, Vaidehi Hospital, Satyasai
Medical Institute, ITPL, Kadugodi, Ujwala
Vidyalaya and Whiteeld.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN NORTH BENGALURU
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

6,399
4,691

3,795

2,961

5,415

429

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Since 2008 more than

37

mn. sq. ft. of oce space

Employment Indicators in
East Bengaluru

has been constructed in


East Bengaluru

We expect another

24

mn. sq.ft. of new oce

The IT/ITeS sector continues to be the major


employment driver of this region. Over 30 mn. sq.
ft. oce space was occupied as of June 2012.
Major IT/ITeS hubs in this region include
Salarpuria Hallmark, ITPB, RMZ Ecospace,
Prestige Shantiniketan and Bagmane World
Centre. The overall demand for this location will
be driven by two major characteristics, a) IT/ITeS
employees preference to stay close to their
workplace and b) well established social
infrastructure including organized retail market.
The proposed PRR will enhance connectivity of all
the industrial hubs of Bengaluru. One node of
this PRR is Hoskote - an upcoming industrial and

automobile hub. Many Japanese companies have


evinced interest in setting up their plants here.
Since 2008 more than 37 mn. sq. ft. of oce
space has been constructed in Eastern
Bengaluru. Over the next ve years we expect
over 24 mn. sq. ft. of oce space to be added to
the existing inventory taking the total stock to 57
mn. sq. ft. by the end of 2017. IT/ITeS sector
remains the single largest demand driver for
these spaces. Currently 20% of the oce space in
the region is vacant and this is expected to
reduce to 16% by 2017. We forecast an
incremental 20 mn. sq. ft. of oce space to be
absorbed over the next ve years.

space to become
operational by 2017

We believe Hebbal and KR


Puram to provide the
highest appreciation in

EMPLOYMENT HUBS IN EAST BENGALURU


SECTOR

PROJECT NAME

MAJOR COMPANIES

IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS

Bagmane World Centre


Ferns Icon
ITPB Zone

EMC2
Lenovo, ST Micro Electronics
ABB, Accenture, Amazon

INVESTMENT
DESTINATIONS IN
BENGALURU

Bengaluru market
Hebbal located in the northern region and KR
Puram in the eastern region are the most
promising residential destinations in Bengaluru.
Proximity to the Manyata Tech Park near Hebbal
and Whiteeld Road near KR Puram makes these
destinations an ideal residential location.
Additionally, connectivity of the eastern region
with the northern region through ORR and that of
the city centre with the airport in the north
through NH-7 (Bellary Road) have improved the
commuting experience. Further, the upcoming
PRR which is expected to connect all the
peripheral districts will ease connectivity from the
eastern region to the airport. Proposed
infrastructure projects such as the monorail,
Metro and High Speed Rail Link is expected to
further enhance the connectivity from the city
centre to the airport. These destinations will
benet immensely from the above mentioned
developments.

The GOK is carrying out numerous infrastructure


projects across the cities that are in various
stages of construction. These projects are
expected to bring about phenomenal changes in
terms of connectivity among dierent locations
within the city and reduce the commuting time.
These factors will have a considerable impact on
the real estate prices across the city. However,
the price appreciation will not be uniform across
the city and will vary based upon various themes.
We believe that over a period of the next ve
years North-East Bengaluru will provide the
highest appreciation compared to other zones.
Based on the announced infrastructure projects,
coupled with proximity to the IT corridor, we have
short-listed two destinations that look promising
in this zone viz. Hebbal and KR Puram. These
destinations share some common characteristics
among themselves making them ideal residential

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

More than

60% of the

incremental oce space


to be in North and East
Bengaluru

destinations. These destinations are in close


proximity to the IT corridor of Hebbal, Whiteeld
Road and the ORR (Hebbal-KR PuramMarathahalli stretch). Additionally, these
destinations are also well connected with the
Bengaluru International Airport and Bengaluru
city centre. The upcoming monorail, Metro, HSRL
and elevated road will enhance connectivity
between the city centre and the airport.
Following are the factors that will have a positive
impact on the chosen destination:

. Bengaluru will witness an incremental demand


of 44.4 mn. sq. ft. of oce space over the next
ve years, primarily driven by the IT/ITeS
sector. More than 60% of this will be within
North-East Bengaluru.

. Bio-technology industry of Karnataka is

forecasted to grow at an annual average rate


of 10% over the next six years from USD

Bio-technology industry in
Karnataka is estimated to
grow at 10% CAGR from USD
170mn. in 2011 to USD 272mn.
in 2017

170mn. in 2011 to USD 272mn. in 2017. A large


number of these units are expected to be setup in the north-east region mainly on account
of favourable regulations, availability of vast
land parcels, proximity to the city centre and
the talent pool of the city.

. The distinct feature of these destinations will

be a) proximity to the major employment hubs


of Bengaluru i.e. Manyata Tech Park in the
North and Whiteeld and ITPL in the East; b)
quick and easy accessibility to the city centre
and retail hubs for daily requirements; and c)
distance to the airport.

. Additionally, the upcoming metro, monorail,

HSRL corridor between Hebbal and BIA will


further boost the connectivity of this location.

. Proposed PRR will further enhance the

connectivity from all the peripheral districts.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

721

units launched

and 233 units absorbed in

DESTINATION
HEBBAL

last 21 months in Hebbal

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF HEBBAL


* Till September 2012
2007 2008

2009

2010

35%

33%

1,800

No. of Units

2012*

2011

1,500

8%

1,200
900
600

1%

5%

4%

300

Stock

We forecast prices in
Hebbal to appreciate by

94%

from 2012 to 2017

Cumulative Absorption

Hebbal was once the end of the northern city limit


of Bengaluru. However with Bengalurus
horizontal growth, Hebbal has witnessed a
complete make-over in the last decade. Hebbal,
previously, endowed with a calm and serene
environment has now become quite active and
lively. Hebbal gained importance as a destination
with the establishment of Bengaluru International
Airport near Devanahalli which is 30 km. away
from Hebbal. It has now emerged into one of the
IT/ITeS hub, housing many tech parks and
campuses of IT companies. The infrastructure of
Hebbal is outstanding; it has well linked roads
connecting dierent parts of the city. This will be
further enhanced once the monorail, HSRL and
Metro commence in the next 4-5 years that will
connect the city-centre with the airport. This is
expected to immensely increase the residential
prices in Hebbal.
There was a dearth of residential projects in
Hebbal before 2008. It witnessed the launch of a
mere 110 residential units in 2008.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN HEBBAL
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Developers got attracted to this destination post


commencement of the Bengaluru International
Airport near Devanahalli in 2008. On account of
this, 372 new residential units were launched in
2010, which on a year-on-year basis registered a
rise of 285%.
As on September 2012, 557 units out of the total
1,604 units launched were unsold, implying 34.7%
of the total inventory as unsold.

We have benchmarked Hebbal to RMV/Sanjay


Nagar which is an established micro-market and
has characteristics similar to Hebbal. Going
forward, we expect the absorption rate to
increase due to the reasons stated earlier and
this will positively impact prices in Hebbal.
Currently, Hebbal prices are 33% lower than our
benchmarked micro-market. We forecast this
discount to narrow down to 10% by the end of 2017
resulting in Hebbal prices moving up from
`4,250/sq.ft. to `8,230/sq.ft.

PRICE FORECAST
* Figures in `/sq.ft

2012
2010

2011

2017E

2012*

`9,145

666
`6,350
`8,230
`4,250

372
305
110

Launches

97

55

Source: Knight Frank Research

RMV/Sanjay Nagar

Hebbal

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT

`3.6 mn. and


`5.3 mn.

are the

minimum ticket size for


investment in Hebbal for a
2 BHK and 3 BHK Apartment
respectively

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

9,000

10%

8,000
7,000
6,000

33%

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2007

Hebbal

2008

2009

RMV/Sanjay Nagar

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

Investment Options in Hebbal


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE
SELECT PROJECTS
1250 - 1850

3BHK

5.3 - 7.9

850 - 1100

2BHK

3.6 - 4.7

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

Project

Developer

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

Waters
Edge

Equinox

380

Sep-11

Mar-16

Sobha
City

Sobha
Developers

498

Jun-11

Mar-15

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

6,095 units launched


in KR Puram since 2007, of

DESTINATION
KR PURAM

which 42% launched in last


33 months

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF KR PURAM


* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*
29%

Over the next ve years,


we expect KR Puram to
follow Whiteeld in terms
of price

We forecast prices in KR
Puram to appreciate by

91%

from 2012 to 2017

No. of Units

25%

7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

22%
17%

Stock

17%

16%

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

KR Puram located on NH-75 o the Old Madras


Road is 3.1 km. from Baiyappanahalli Metro
station and is just 8.2 km from MG Road. Its
proximity to the IT corridor of Whiteeld as well as
of Manyata Tech Park has made it the most
sought after destination among the IT employees.
The proposed Peripheral Ring Road (PRR) will
connect Eastern Bengaluru with Hoskote which is
18 km. from the KR Puram. Widening of the Old
Madras Road Highway to eight-lane has
enhanced the connectivity; the commute time to
ITPL near Whiteeld has reduced to 15-20
minutes. Hence, KR Puram-Budigere Cross stretch
has emerged as a good destination. Proximity to
the IT hub of Whiteeld, improved connectivity
with the airport and proximity to the
Byappanahalli metro rail hub have generated
interest among prospective buyers.

Over 3,600 units were launched since 2008 in KR


Puram micro-market. This led to an increase in
unsold units, which as a percentage to total
inventory kept on rising since 2009. As on September2012, 28.6% of the total units stood unsold in KR
Puram as there is still some supply overhang of
the previous year.
We have benchmarked KR Puram with Whiteeld
which is one of the most established micromarkets of East Bengaluru. Going forward, we
expect the absorption rate to increase due to the
factors stated earlier and this will positively
impact prices in KR Puram. Currently, KR Puram
prices are 37% lower than the established
market. We forecast this discount to narrow down
to 15% by the end of 2017 resulting in KR Puram
prices moving up from `3,245/sq.ft. to
`6,200/sq.ft.

CONNECTIVITY TO
IMPORTANT LOCATIONS
By Road (Existing)

By Metro Rail (Proposed)

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN KR PURAM
* Till September 2012
2007

Whiteeld

Whiteeld

2008

2009

2010

52
mins

13
km

26
mins

2012*

1,290
1,118

13
km

2011

1,019

881
414

Distance

254

Travel time

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT

`3.1 mn.

and

`4.7 mn. are the

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

8,000

minimum ticket size for

7,000

investment in KR Puram for

6,000

a 2 BHK and 3 BHK


Apartment respectively

15%

5,000

37%

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2007

KR Puram

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2015E

2014E

2016E

2017E

Discount Margin

Whiteeld

Source: Knight Frank Research

PRICE FORECAST
* Figures in `/sq.ft

2012

2017E
`7,370

Investment Options
in KR Puram
INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

`5,175
`6,200
`3,245

Whiteeld

KR Puram

1450 - 2100

3BHK

4.7 - 6.8

950 - 1220

2BHK

3.1 - 4.0

Source: Knight Frank Research


Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

Developer

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

Purva
Midtown

Puravankara

306

Mar-11

Sep-14

Pashmina Pashmina
Waterfront Developers

250

Jan-12

Dec-14

Purple
Woods

135

Jan-11

Dec-13

Purple
Estates

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Yelahanka located
further north of Hebbal is
at a distance of 19 km

Destination gained
prominence only after the
commencement of
Bengaluru INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT

Yelahanka is still short of


social infrastructure and
basic amenities

Bengaluru International
Airport Area Planning
Authority formed by
Government of Karnataka

HIDDEN GEM
Yelahanka
Yelahanka located further north of Hebbal is at a
distance of 19km. from the Bengaluru
International Airport (BIA). It was initially
envisaged as the satellite city of Bengaluru, but is
now a part of the BBMP The Municipal
Corporation of Bengaluru. The NH-7 provides
excellent connectivity with the airport as well as
the city centre.
The destination gained prominence only after the
commencement of BIA at Devanahalli. However,
this was the sole reason for the swift rise in the
real estate prices of Yelahanka. The current prices
have already built-in the benet arising out of the
announced projects, which we believe will see
light only after 2017. As on date, Yelahanka is still
short of social infrastructure including basic
amenities like water and electricity. Moreover, the
organised retail market is still non-existent in this
destination.
The Government of Karnataka has proposed
numerous infrastructure projects including
widening of elevated road, High Speed Rail Link
and Metro Rail to improve the connectivity
between the airport and Bengaluru City Centre.
Also, commuter rail system has been planned to
connect Devanahalli with Yeshvantpur via
Yelahanka.
Further, the Government of Karnataka has formed
Bengaluru International Airport Area Planning
Authority (BIAAPA) to ensure organized
development of Bengaluru North, Devanahalli
and Dodaballapur Taluka. A total investment of
`1,150bn. has been earmarked in order to make
North Bengaluru a self-sustaining business hub.
Some of the major investments are Information

CONNECTIVITY TO
IMPORTANT LOCATIONS
FROM YELAHANKA
* By road
HEBBAL

18
km

17
km

19
km

Distance

Technology Investment Region (ITIR) in


Devanahalli, Aero SEZ an aviation hub in
Devanahalli, Devanahalli Business Park and
Aerotropolis. The Government of Karnataka is in
talks with banking giants to set up a Global
Financial District near Devanahalli. These
developments are expected to completely change
North Bengaluru from an unexciting location to a
bustling self-sustaining city.
Cumulatively, the above developments have the
potential to generate 4 mn. direct and indirect
jobs in North Bengaluru over the next two
decades. Hence, we believe that Yelahankas
eventual evolution as a Peripheral Business District will
give birth to a thriving resiential real estate destination.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

CHENNAI

Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu, is the fourth most populous city in
India and serves as a gateway to Southern India through its strategically
located port. Chennais urban agglomeration, also known as the Chennai
Metropolitan Region (CMR), is spread over 1,189 sq.km. and consists of
parts of Thiruvallur and Kancheepuram districts apart from Chennai city.
As per Census 2011, the total population of CMR was 8.7 mn.
The development of the CMR is entrusted to the nodal planning agency
Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority (CMDA) which prepares the
master plan for the region. CMDA in September 2008 prepared the
Second Master Plan for Chennai Metropolitan Area, 2026 outlining the
detailed development plan along with land use, transportation, housing
and other important aspects of the CMR.

CHENNAI METROPOLITAN REGION POPULATION


Population in Millions

1991

5.42

2.4%

Population

2001

6.56

1.9%

2011

8.70

2.9%

Average Annual Growth

Source: Census 2011, Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

CHENNAI MAP

Major Roads
U/C Metro Corridor I
U/C Metro Corridor II
Railway Line
South Zone
West Zone
Central Zone
North Zone
Price Contours (`/ sq.ft)

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Chennai Metropolitan
Region is spread over
1,189 sq.km. with a

Market
Overview

population of

8.7 mn.

Chennai market has


witnessed the launch of
more than

105,236

units since 2007

Chennai is divided into four broad zones: North,


Central, South and West. It may be noted that
being a coastal city, Chennai does not have an
eastern market and faces the Bay of Bengal.

ZONE

MAJOR RESIDENTIAL
DESTINATIONS

Central

Nungambakkam, Boat Club, Anna


Nagar, Kilpauk, T Nagar,Mylapore,
R.A Puram

West

Sriperumbudur, Mogappair, Porur,


Ambattur, Poonamallee

North

Ayanavaram, Tondiarpet,
Madhavaram, Perambur

South

Old Mahabalipuram Road (OMR),


GST Road, Adyar, Velachery,
Medavakkam

North Chennai is primarily an industrial area


dotted with various locomotive workshops and
port related activities. The two major ports
namely Chennai Port and Ennore Port are located
in this region. Non-availability of vacant land,
narrow arterial roads and lack of employment
opportunities have restricted the real estate
growth of this region as compared to other parts
of the city. Destinations such as Tondiarpet,
Madhavaram and Perambur are the primary
residential locations with large underconstruction projects in these areas. Residential
demand is driven by the business community,
traders and public sector employees here.
Central Chennai is the commercial heart of the
city with various corporate oces located in the
Central Business District (CBD) areas of Anna
Salai, Nungambakkam, Egmore, Nandanam and
others. Excellent connectivity with various parts
of the city, good physical and social infrastructure
and presence of organized retail have ensured
the highest property prices in this part of the city.
Locations such as Boat Club Road, Poes Garden,
Nungambakkam, T Nagar, Mylapore and RA
Puram are some of the prominent residential
areas. Majority of the residential development in
the central locations comprises bungalows and
independent residential units while some
pockets like Alwarpet, Kilpauk and Anna Nagar

are witnessing growth in high-rise construction as


well.
The western part of the city has some of the most
upcoming locations. The saturation of land banks
in Central Chennai has seen westward movement
of residential development. Electronic hardware
corridor in Sriperumbudur and Auto & Auto
Ancillary manufacturing units in Oragadam have
resulted in increased demand for aordable
residential units in this region. Multinationals like
Nokia, Dell, Samsung, Saint-Gobain, RenaultNissan and Hyundai have set up their units here.
However, lack of social infrastructure, absence of
organized retail and distance from the city centre
have restricted growth of the residential market in
this zone.
South Chennai, along the Old Mahabalipuram
Road (OMR) and Grand Southern Trunk (GST) road
is rapidly developing as a self-sustaining hub
with the presence of a large number of IT SEZs, IT
Parks and manufacturing units. Nodes such as
Perungudi, Sholinganallur and Siruseri on the
OMR along with Tambaram and Mahindra World
City on GST road have created enormous
employment opportunities in this region. This has
inherently led to the development of the
residential market in South Chennai.
Additionally, the focus of the state government in
providing excellent road connectivity along these
nodes has further helped in the development of
this region.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN CHENNAI
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

26,152
23,803

14,441

15,505

Launches

12,702

12,633

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF CHENNAI


As of Q3 2012,

25%

of

* Till September 2012

the total units remain

2007 2008

unsold

2009

2010

2011

No. of Units

120,000
80,000
40,000

25%

21%

100,000
60,000

2012*

7%
5%

12%

4%

20,000

Stock

33,938
units were absorbed
during 2010 and 2011

65%
of the under
construction units are
located in South Chennai

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

The advent of the IT sector along with the setting


up of large manufacturing units by multi-national
companies have changed the dynamics of
Chennai real estate market. Apart from
generating thousands of new jobs for the local
residents, Chennai has been attracting a large
pool of migrants into these sectors from across
the country. This has enabled the real estate
market to grow at a tremendous rate during the
last ve years, especially the residential segment
which witnessed the launch of more than 105,236
units since 2007.

ZONE-WISE SPLIT OF UNDER


CONSTRUCTION UNITS
5%

23%
7%

During 2010 and 2011, more than 49,955 units


were launched in Chennai. However, only 33,938
units were absorbed during this period resulting
in a signicant jump in the unsold units
percentage.
The percentage of unsold units during the rst
nine months of 2012 has further increased despite
the number of new launches falling drastically.
This is primarily because of the supply overhang of
the previous years.
Chennai is land locked on the eastern side by the
Bay of Bengal, thereby restricting its growth to
the remaining three sides. Backed by excellent
rail and road connectivity, the city has been
expanding three ways over the last few decades.
However, development on the northern side is
subdued as compared to West and South
Chennai mainly due to the presence of various
industrial pockets and port related activities here.
Over the last few years, the focus of developers
has been shifting from Central Chennai to the
peripheral areas of South and West Chennai due
to greater availability of jobs here.

65%
Central

West

North

South

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

IT/ITeS sector constitutes

Real Estate Drivers

71% of the total office


Employment Indicators

space in Chennai

Infrastructure Development

Service Sector

Manufacturing Sector

Rail Network

Road Network

IT Sector

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Chennai Metro Corridor I & II

Outer Ring Road

Monorail Corridor I, II & III

Infrastructure Development
EXISTING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK

Currently Chennai is

CONNECTIVITY

DESCRIPTION

Chennai-Kolkata
Highway (NH 5)

Starts at Basin Bridge till Kottur

Connects Chennai Port with North Chennai

Anna Salai
GST Road (NH 45)

Starts at Fort St. George towards the


south west via airport till Mahindra
World City

Provides easy access from the city centre to


suburbs in the south such as Tambaram,
Vandalur, Maraimalai Nagar and
Singaperumalkoil

Old Mahabalipuram
Road (OMR)

Starts at Madhya Kailash junction


towards the south via Sholinganallur
till Mahabalipuram

Also known as the IT corridor, connects the


city centre with southern suburbs such as
Perungudi, Siruseri and Kelambakkam

Chennai-Bangalore
Highway (NH 4)

Starts from Chennai Central Station


via Sriperumbudur till Bangalore

Connects western markets such as


and Sriperumbudur with the city centre

East Coast Road

Sholinganallur till Mahabalipuram


till Mahabalipuram

Running parallel to the OMR, connects the


coastal locations of South Chennai

connected through

5
major arterial roads and

4
suburban rail networks

EXISTING SUBURBAN RAIL NETWORK


CONNECTIVITY

DESCRIPTION

MRTS

Chennai Beach - Tambaram Chengalpet

Running parallel to GST road, connects city


centre with Mahindra World City via Tambaram
and Maraimalai Nagar

South West
Line

Chennai Beach - Thiruvanmiyur


- Velachery

Provides easy connectivity from Velachery via


Tidel Park and Taramani to city centre

North Line

Chennai Central - Ennore Gummidipoondi

Connects the northern part of Chennai with


Central Chennai via Tondiarpet

West Line

Chennai Central - Avadi - Tiruvallur

Connects North Western markets of Ambatur


and Avadi with city centre

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

UPCOMING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK


Most of the upcoming
infrastructure

CONNECTIVITY

DESCRIPTION

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Outer Ring
Road I

Vandalur Nazarathpet Nemilichery

The six-lane highway is expected to


decongest the city road by connecting
the GST Road (NH 45) with ChennaiBangalore Highway (NH 4) and NH 205

Under
construction

2012-13

Outer Ring
Road II

Nemilichery Nallur - Minjur

Will connect NH 205 with the ChennaiKolkata Highway (NH 5) and TPP road
at Minjur through a six-lane highway

Land
Acquisition

2016-17

projects will be
operational before

2017

UPCOMING SUBURBAN RAIL NETWORK

IT/ITeS and
Automobile
sectors to be the driving
factors for Chennais
growth

CONNECTIVITY

DESCRIPTION

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Chennai Metro
Corridor I

Washermenpet Chennai Central


Station Chennai Airport

Will enhance connectivity between


Chennai Airport and central Chennai via
Guindy

Under
construction

2015

Chennai Metro
Corridor II

Chennai Central
Will connect the heavy trac route
Station between city centre and St. Thomas
Annanagar Mount
Vadapalani St. Thomas Mount

Under
Construction

2015

Chennai
Monorail
Corridor I

Vandalur Velachery

Better connectivity for Vandalur and


Tambaram with city centre via Valechery

Bidding
stage

2016-17

Chennai
Monorail
Corridor II

Poonamallee Kathipara

Will connect West Chennai via Porur

Bidding
stage

2016-17

Chennai
Monorail
Corridor III

Poonamallee Vadapalani

Enhance connectivity of Poonamallee as


Vadapalani is also a node on Metro
Corridor II

Bidding
stage

2016-17

Employment Indicators in Chennai


Being a port city, Chennai has historically been at
an advantage compared to other metro cities of
South India like Bangalore and Hyderabad. Export
oriented manufacturing industries have always
been attracted to Chennai due to the presence of
two major ports with excellent road and rail
connectivity from all the three sides of India. Auto
& Auto Ancillary sector is one of the largest
employers among the various manufacturing

industries present in the periphery of Chennai.


Apart from the manufacturing plants of Hyundai,
Renault-Nissan, Daimler and Eicher Motors, there
are numerous Auto Ancillary units spread across
the industrial corridor of SriperumbudurOragadam. Additionally, manufacturing plants of
Ford, BMW and Sundram Fasteners on GST road
have also created large scale employment in the
Auto sector.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Currently the total office


space stock in Chennai is

60.7
mn. sq.ft. of which

44.8
mn. sq.ft. is occupied

76% of the total office


space stock is located in
South Chennai

We expect another

22
mn. sq.ft. of new office
space to be operational in
the next 5 years

Apart from Auto & Auto Ancillary, there are


various other manufacturing industries like
Electronic Hardware, Apparels, Engineering and
Chemicals that have a significant presence in
Chennais periphery. Companies such as Nokia,
Samsung, Motorola, Flextronics, Dell, Asian
Paints and Saint Gobain have their production
units located in West and South Chennai.
Going forward, we expect the Auto & Auto
Ancillary sector to be one of the driving factors for
Chennais growth. We expect the output of Tamil
Nadus Auto & Auto Ancillary industry to grow at
an annual average rate of 24% over the next five
years. Since a large number of manufacturing
plants are located within the vicinity of the city,
Chennai will immensely benefit from this.
Since 2000, the IT/ITeS sector has emerged as
one of the most important drivers of employment
and has significantly contributed towards the
growth of the city.

OFFICE SPACE BREAK-UP

Source: Knight Frank Research

CHENNAI OFFICE
SPACE DYNAMICS
* Figures in mn. sq.ft

Unlike manufacturing, IT/ITeS sector creates large


scale white collar employment with higher
purchasing power. Blue chip companies like TCS,
Infosys, Wipro, Capgemini, HCL and Cognizant
have established their centres in the city.
Currently the IT/ITeS sector forms more than 70%
of the total office stock and this share is expected
to go up further as new IT/ITeS offices become
operational in the coming years.
Currently the total office space stock in Chennai
is 60.7 mn.sq.ft. of which 67% or 40.4 mn.sq.ft.
has become operational post 2008. However, the
total occupied space stands at 44.8 mn.sq.ft.
resulting in a vacancy level of 26%. Although the
absorption trend witnessed over the previous five
years has been quite healthy, excess supply of
new space has led to a significant jump in
vacancy levels. The high vacancy level in the
existing stock has compelled many developers to
strategically delay the delivery period of the ongoing under construction projects and postpone
the launch of any new projects. Considering this,
we expect another 22 mn.sq.ft. of new office
space to become operational in the next five
years taking the total stock to 82.6 mn.sq.ft. by
the end of 2017.
The recent slowdown witnessed by the IT/ITeS
sector globally is expected to impact the
incremental absorption of office space in Chennai
in the coming five years. However, the delay in
delivery of new projects will bring some respite
and eventually reduce the vacancy levels to 20%
by 2017. We have forecasted an incremental
demand of 21.1 mn.sq.ft. over the next five years
taking the total occupied space in the city to 66
mn.sq.ft. by 2017 end.

Before
2008

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

2017E

ZONE WISE DISTRIBUTION OF


OFFICE SPACE STOCK

6%

18%

76%
Central

West

South

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

generation in

STATUTORY COSTS
AND MARKET NORMS

North

STATUTORY COSTS

Absence of any significant


incremental employment

Chennai

COST

DETAILS

over the next few years

Stamp Duty

8% on Undivided Share (UDS) of land based on Guidance Value (GV). GV is the


rate of land fixed by the state government based on its market
value. The effective rate of stamp duty is 1-2% of property value

Registration

1% upto a Maximum of `30,000

Value Added Tax (VAT)

Nil

Service Tax

3% on agreement value. Levied on under construction properties

will restrict the growth


of real estate in this zone

MARKET NORMS

Although

Central

NORM

DETAILS

Time line for property


registration

Any time until possession

Re-sale before
possession

Allowed subject to payment of transfer chargers to developer ranging


`100-200 psf

Loading

30% on carpet area

Brokerage

1-2% of property value

Chennai
will also witness increase
in office space, the quantum
of it will be marginal in

Preferred Zone
in Chennai

comparison to the South


Historically Chennais residential market has
been dominated by end-users with very little
presence of investors, resulting in lower price
volatility as compared to the markets of Mumbai,
the NCR and Bangalore. However with the advent
of IT/ITeS sector and rising income levels, the
perception towards real estate as an investment
has changed drastically in the city over the last
few years. Although end-users still form a
majority of property buyers even today, there has
been a considerable rise in investor interest in the
recent period. Employment growth and
infrastructure development will primarily drive the
real estate market of Chennai in the coming
years.
However, certain zones will grow faster than the
others as the benefit of these factors will accrue
more to these zones. Incremental employment

over the next five years will be largely created in


South and West Chennai as the majority of the
new office space and manufacturing units is
being set up here. Although Central Chennai will
also witness increase in office space, the
quantum of it will be marginal in comparison to
the South and West. Similarly, absence of any
significant incremental employment generation in
North Chennai over the next few years will restrict
the growth of real estate in this zone.
West Chennai is expected to immensely benefit
from the large number of existing and upcoming
manufacturing units on the SriperumbudurOragadam industrial corridor. However, absence
of any significant IT/ITeS offices apart from the
DLF IT SEZ makes this zone depend largely on the
growth in the manufacturing sector.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

South
Chennai, which
will host three-fourth of
the total oce stock, is
expected to witness
maximum growth in the
residential market over

Although the manufacturing sector is expected to


grow strongly, going forward, this zone will not be
able to reap the benet of large scale
employment in the IT/ITeS sector. Higher
purchasing power and preference to reside in
close proximity of their work area, makes IT/ITeS
employees a dominant force in driving the
residential market of any region.
South Chennai, which will host three-fourth of the
total oce stock in Chennai along with the large
number of manufacturing units located on the

GST road, is expected to witness maximum


growth in the residential market over the next ve
years. Heavy trac congestions and absence of
any mass rapid transport system on the IT
Corridor of OMR has resulted in many employees
preferring to stay close to their oces in this
area. This phenomenon is expected to continue
for the next few years as no new mass rapid
transport system is planned on the OMR. Hence,
growth in the IT/ITeS sector of the city will directly
benet the residential market of South Chennai.

the next 5 years

SOUTH CHENNAI

residential

units have been launched


in South Chennai since
2007. Of these, a total of

50,666
units have been absorbed
as of Q3 2012

Growth of the residential market in South Chennai


has been primarily along the three arterial roads
of OMR, GST road and ECR. However, in the last
few years a lot of development has taken place
within the destinations located between OMR and
GST road. The advantage of being centrally

located with easy access to both these roads has


led to many home buyers preferring these
destinations.
South Chennai has witnessed the launch of
68,914 residential units since 2007. Of these, a
total of 50,666 units of this have been absorbed
as of Q3 2012, with 26% remaining unsold. There
has been a steady rise in the percentage of
unsold units over the years, as the pace of
absorption has not been able to keep up with the
pace of new launches. A total of 29,245 units
were launched in South Chennai during 2010 and
2011, of which only 19,550 units were absorbed.
Taking a cue from the market, developers have
become cautious before launching any new
project and only 61 new projects have been
launched in 2012 as compared to 147 during
the previous year. Although the number of new
launches has reduced drastically, the excess
supply from the previous years is impacting the
unsold units percentage. Additionally,
absorption during the rst nine months of 2012
has been abysmally low.

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF SOUTH CHENNAI


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

No. of Units

68,914

The focus of Tamil Nadu government over the last


decade in promoting OMR as an IT/ITeS
destination along with the setting up of Mahindra
World City on GST road has created immense
employment opportunities in South Chennai.
Additionally, the proximity to Chennai airport,
presence of arterial roads and availability of vast
vacant land parcels has enabled this zone to
rapidly grow into an emerging residential market.
Since 2000, a large number of IT/ITeS companies
have set up their operations in the numerous IT
Parks and IT SEZs on OMR and GST road. The
growth in IT/ITeS based employment, gradually
sowed the seeds of a bustling residential market
in this zone. Preference of employees in staying
close to their work place and aordable pricing as
compared to Central Chennai sustained the
development of a healthy market in this zone.

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

Stock

2009

2010

2011
22%

11%
9%

2012*
26%

13%

6%

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

n a i ypas
B
s

SOUTH CHENNAI MAP

Ch

NH

Anna
International
Airport

Chennai
Airport

VELACHERY

ea

epass

orr id

or

R oa

IT C

ach

PALLIKARNAI

Ve l

So

ut

he

rn

SRIPERUMBUDUR

oa

Tr u

PALLAVARAM

kR

er y

CHROMEPET

NH

Chennai By

45

Velachery Road

MEDAVAKKAM
ast
L in

k Road

Road

TAMBARAM

East C
o

oa

Old Mahabalipuram

SH

121

Gr

ea

East Coast Road

tS
ou

t he

rn T
r un

kR

VANDALUR

ADYAR

St. Thomas
Mount

45

NH

at el Road

East Co ast R
o ad

en

Kunrathur

Sard
ar P

SITHALAPAKKAM

GUDUVANCHERI
NH

BAY
OF
BENGAL

SIRUSERI

a m a ll

12

Ol

dM

SH

a pur a m

45

45

d
Roa
ast
Eas

Ol

ea

Gr
NH

t Co

tS
ou

th

dM
ah a
b

er

alip
u

r am

nT
run

Ro a
d

kR
oa

Paranur

Proposed Monorail
Major Roads

CHENGALPATTU

U/C Metro Corridor I

ram
lapu
To M
ama
l

To M am al
la pu

lp
To C h en ga

at tu

Chengalpattu

ra m

THIRUPORUR

U/C Metro Corridor II


Airport
Railway Line
Benchmark location
Top destination
Employment Hubs

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Lack of social
infrastructure and
absence of organized
retail have restricted the

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN SOUTH CHENNAI
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

growth of residential
market on

OMR

16,740

beyond the rst toll

11,889

plaza
9,185

Launches

12,505

acres

Mahindra

World City
led to a dramatic change
in the development of the
GST Road with huge
employment opportunities
being created

However, lack of social infrastructure and


absence of organized retail are the major
drawbacks of these segments and hence
preference among home buyers to reside here is
low. Some of the major residential destinations
located here are Thuraipakkam, Sholinganallur,
Navallur, Egattur and Padur.

10,355
8,240

Source: Knight Frank Research

Existing
Infrastructure
Commencement of the 1,550

up their campuses along this route. ELCOT SEZ


and SIPCOT IT Park are the two landmark oce
space developments in these segments.

OLD MAHABALIPURAM ROAD


(OMR)
OMR, also known as the IT Highway or Rajiv
Gandhi Salai, starts from Madhya Kailash
Junction near Adyar till Mahabalipuram. It is a sixlane highway being developed in two phases,
with Phase I of 20.1 km. from Madhya Kailash
Junction to Siruseri already under operation since
2008. The work on Phase II that will connect
Siruseri to Mahabalipuram is still underway.
Phase II is expected to be ready in another 3-4
years. Phase I of OMR is further divided into three
segments based on toll plazas. The road from
Kailash Junction to Perungudi toll plaza is known
as the rst segment.
Proximity to the city centre, presence of an
established oce market and access to retail
malls has enabled rapid development of various
residential markets located along the rst
segment. Some of the major IT/ITeS projects such
as TIDEL Park, Ramanujan IT Park, Ascendas
International Tech Park, RMZ Millenia Business
Park and SP Infocity are located in this segment.
The road from Perungudi toll plaza till Egattur toll
plaza is known as the second segment and the
road beyond Egattur as third segment. These two
segments of the OMR have also witnessed
tremendous residential development over the last
few years, as many IT/ITeS companies have set

GRAND SOUTHERN TRUNK (GST)


ROAD
GST road, also known as NH-45, is one of the
busiest National Highways in Southern India and
starts from Kathipara junction in Guindy till Theni.
It is a four-lane highway with various suburban
destinations and the Chennai airport located
along the road. The setting up of Ford Indias
manufacturing plant at Maraimalai Nagar was one
of the rst major developments on this road.
However, commencement of the 1,550 acres
Mahindra World City in 2005 at Chengelpet led to
a dramatic change in the development of this
corridor with huge employment opportunities
being created across the IT/ITeS, Auto & Auto
Ancillary and Apparel sectors. In addition to this,
setting up of Shrirams The Gateway and Estancia
IT SEZ have further facilitated growth of the
IT/ITeS sector on this road.
Residential development on the GST road has
been centred along the hubs of Chromepet,
Tambaram, Vandalur, Maraimalai Nagar and
Singaperumalkoil. The seamless connectivity
throughout the road leaves little variation in
terms of price among the various residential
destinations located on GST road, as the time
taken to travel between them is very marginal.

EAST COAST ROAD (ECR)


ECR, also known as the Entertainment Corridor, is
a two lane highway built along the coast of the
Bay of Bengal connecting Chennai with
Pondicherry. The road starts at Thiruvanmiyur in
South Chennai and runs parallel to OMR and
nally merges with OMR at Mahabalipuram. Since
the last ten years this road has witnessed
considerable real estate development with
numerous theme parks, boat houses, beaches,
5-star hotels and pubs dotted along the stretch.
With the absence of any signicant oce space,
residential development along this road has been
restricted to second homes and villas.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

MRTS forms a vital


part of the infrastructure

CHENNAI BEACH- VELACHERY


MASS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM
(MRTS)

Upcoming
Infrastructure

in South Chennai as it
connects Central Chennai
CHENNAI BEACH

with major IT/ITeS hubs on


CHENNAI FORT

PARK TOWN

the OMR like Taramani and

VANDALUR-VELACHERY
MONORAIL

CHINTADRIPET

Perungudi
CHEPAUK
TIRUVELLIKENI

LIGHT HOUSE

TOWARDS CHENNAI
BEACH VIA MRTS

THIRUMAYILAI
MANDAVELI
GREENWAYS ROAD
KOTTURPURAM

KASTURBA NAGAR

ST. THOMAS
MOUNT

VELACHERY

INDIRA NAGAR

THIRUVANMIYUR
ADAMBAKKAM

NARAYANAPURAM

TARAMANI
PUZHUTHIVAKKAM

PERUNGUDI
VELACHERY

PERUNGALATHUR

TAMBARAM
EAST

IRUMBULIYUR

VandalurVelacher
Monorail
corridor will immensely

The Chennai Beach Velachery MRTS is a mass


rapid transit system that currently runs within the
city from Chennai Beach to Velachery, covering a
distance of 20 km with 17 stations. The network
till Velachery became fully operational in 2007
and currently work on the extension of this line
from Velachery to St. Thomas Mount is underway.
Work on the extended line is expected to be
completed by the end of 2013. MRTS forms a vital
part of infrastructure in South Chennai as it
connects Central Chennai with major IT/ITeS hubs
on OMR like Taramani and Perungudi.

benefit South Chennai by


providing the much needed
link to the city centre

SOUTH WEST SUBURBAN


RAILWAY NETWORK
The South West Suburban rail network is
operated by the Southern Railways of the Indian
Railway which plies from Chennai Beach to
Chengalpet via Tambaram. The route is divided
into two points with Tambaram located in the
centre. Trains between Chennai Beach and
Tambaram run every 5-10 minutes which is
considerably higher than the frequency of 15-25
minutes between Tambaram and Chengalpet. It is
a vital mode of transport for employees working
in Mahindra World City which has a dedicated rail
station on this network known as Paranur. Since
the rail network runs parallel to GST road, it also
serves as an important mode of transport for
other employment hubs located on this route
such as Estancia IT SEZ and Ford India plant.

CAMP
ROAD

PALLIKARANAI
SEMBAKKAM
MEDAVAKKAM
GOWRIWAKKAM

VANDALUR

The Chennai Monorail that was first announced in


2006, is finally being pursued by the Tamil Nadu
government on a fast track basis and is currently
at the bidding stage. In Phase I, three corridors
will be constructed, out of which two will enhance
the connectivity of West with East Chennai and
one will improve the connectivity of South with
North Chennai.
The corridor connecting Vandalur with Velachery
will immensely benefit South Chennai by
providing the much needed link to the city. Since
Velachery is already connected with Chennai
Beach via the Chennai Beach-ThiruvanmiyurVelachery MRTS route, it is expected to become
an important transport hub between South and
Central Chennai. The 23 km. monorail route is
expected to take anywhere between 4-5 years to
become fully operational from the time it is
awarded to the winning bidder.
However, we expect the benefits will start getting
reflected in the residential prices of all the
destinations that are located on the route, once
construction commences. We expect work to
begin anywhere between the next 8-12 months.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Since 2008, more than

Employment Indicators
30 in South Chennai

mn. sq.ft. of office space

has been constructed on


the OMR and GST road
including the captive
offices of companies like
Infosys, Wipro, HCL, TCS and
Capgemini

EMPLOYMENT HUBS IN SOUTH CHENNAI


SECTOR

PROJECT NAME

MAJOR COMPANIES

IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS

OMR
TIDEL Park
Ramanujan IT Park
Ascendas International Tech Park
RMZ Millenia Business Park
SP Infocity
ELCOT SEZ
SIPCOT IT Park

TCS, Cognizant, QuScient Technologies


HP, Infosys, Mindtree
Amazon, Catepillar
Capgemini, Flextronics, Sasken
Verizon, HSBC, Saksoft
Wipro, Cognizant, HCL
TCS, Cognizant, Patni

IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
IT/ITeS
Manufacturing
Manufacturing

Shriram The Gateway


Estancia IT SEZ
Mahindra World City
Mahindra World City
Ford India

GST ROAD

We forecast

18.8

mn.

sq.ft. of incremental
office space to be
absorbed in South Chennai
over the next 5 years

The major employment drivers in South Chennai


are the IT/ITeS sector and Auto & Auto Ancillary
industry. Since 2008, more than 30 mn sq.ft of
office space has been constructed on the OMR
and GST road including the captive offices of
companies like Infosys, Wipro, HCL, TCS and
Capgemini. However, a lot of this space is still
unoccupied as many IT/ITeS companies have
delayed their expansion plans due to the recent
slowdown in the sector.
Over the next five years, another 19.6 mn sq.ft of
office space is expected to become operational in
South Chennai which will take the total stock to
59.8 mn.sq.ft. by the end of 2017. Currently 28%
of the total office space in South Chennai is lying
vacant and is expected to increase to 35% by
2013 as additional space gets constructed.
However, 2014 onwards we expect the vacancy
levels to drop down as delivery of new office
space will be lower compared to 2012 and 2013.

Accenture, Take Solutions, Redington


Maveric Systems
Infosys, Capgemini, MindTree
BMW, Sundram Fasteners, Brakes India
Ford India

The traction expected in South Chennais office


space is bound to create additional employment
in the zone. Since the preference among IT/ITeS
employees for residing closer to their workplace
is high, its impact will be positively felt on the
demand for residential units here.

SOUTH CHENNAI OFFICE


SPACE DYNAMICS
* Figures in mn. sq.ft.

70
60
50
40
30
20
10

Before
2008

Additionally, we forecast 18.8 mn.sq.ft. of


incremental office space to be absorbed over the
next five years, which will help in bringing down
the vacancy level to 20% by the end of 2017.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Out of the total office


space stock of

59.8

mn.sq.ft. which is

expected to be

Investment
Destinations
in SOUTH
Chennai

from Velachery to Medavakkam via Pallikarnai is


located between the OMR and GST road and runs
parallel to them. It is well connected by road to all
the employment hubs of South Chennai.
Additionally, the Vandalur-Velachery Monorail
project will further enhance the connectivity of
these destinations with the city centre in the
north and GST road in the south as it passes
through each of these locations. These
destinations are also well connected with the
Chennai International Airport and central
locations such as Adyar and Anna Salai through
Madhya Kailash Junction. We expect the
destinations of Pallikarnai and Medavakkam to
witness the maximum amount of price
appreciation in Chennais residential market over
the next five years.

operational in South
Chennai by 2017,

82%

will be located on

the OMR

Destinations like

Pallikarnai
and

Medavakkam
are located not only

Incremental employment in the IT/ITeS sector and


enhanced connectivity due to the monorail will
drive the residential market of South Chennai in
the coming five years. Although prices will rise in
majority of the destinations located in this zone,
there will be certain destinations that will
outperform others. Between the two arterial
roads- OMR and GST road, we expect OMR to
witness higher price growth due to the
concentration of office space here. Out of the
total office space stock of 59.8 mn.sq.ft. which is
expected to be operational in South Chennai by
2017, 82% will be located on the OMR.

The primary reasons in brief for these


destinations to outperform others in Chennai over
the next five years are:
Tamil Nadus Auto & Auto Ancillary industry is
forecasted to grow at an annual average rate of
24% over the next five years. A large number of
these units are located on GST road and within
Mahindra World City in South Chennai
Chennai will witness an incremental demand of
21.1 mn sq.ft of office space over the next five
years primarily driven by the IT/ITeS sector.
88% of this will be within South Chennai.
Accessibility to major employment hubs on
OMR and GST road, proximity to the city centre
and distance from Chennai airport will be the
key differentiating factors among the various
destinations located in South Chennai.
Pallikarnai and Medavakkam address all the
above factors due to their favorable location.

Along the OMR, the preference for locations


closer to the city centre is high due to the lack of
social infrastructure and organized retail in the
distant suburbs. This makes destinations located
beyond the first and second toll plaza less
attractive to home buyers in comparison to
destinations before the first toll plaza.
The above mentioned limitations have led to the
unprecedented development of destinations such
as Pallikarnai and Medavakkam as they are
located not only closer to the city centre but also
have easy access to OMR and GST road. The route

closer to the city centre


but also have easy access

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT LOCATIONS FROM


PALLIKARNAI AND MEDAVAKKAM

Ma

al Airport

EZ
, Tamabram

io
n

Mah
in

TID
E
eri
us

15-18
mins

na
i Internat

8-25
mins

unction

10-15
km

ateway

6-12
km

C he

eG

Travel time

r
ar k, Si

40-50
mins

25-35
mins

Shrir am T

SIPC OT

Distance

15-21
km

23-30
mins

IT
P

36-42
km

ya Kailas
dh

hJ

15-20
km

10-18
mins

a World C
dr

hengalpet

10-20
mins

ark, Tara

,C
ity

6-12
km

4-10
km

LP

ni
ma

olingan
a
Sh

r
llu

EZ
,

* By road

ELCOT S

to OMR and GST road

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

We expect the destinations


of Pallikarnai and
Medavakkam to witness
the maximum amount of

price
appreciation
in Chennais residential
market over the next 5
years

Additionally, the upcoming monorail corridor


between Vandalur and Velachery will further
boost the connectivity of these locations with the
city centre and GST road.
Most of the factors that will drive the residential
prices in South Chennai will be common for all
the destinations located here. However, the
degree of influence will be different for each of
them depending on the location of the respective
destination within this zone. Adyar, which is the
most established destination in South Chennai,
has been considered as the benchmark for
comparing prices in this zone and going forward
we expect all the other destinations located here
to follow the price trend of Adyar.
Currently the residential prices in Pallikarnai and
Medavakkam are at a significant discount
compared to Adyar. We believe that over the next
five years, this discount will narrow down due to
the reasons listed earlier. However, the price
difference among each of these destinations will
persist since the factors influencing price are
identical for all of them.

Adyar,

which is the

most established
destination in South
Chennai, has been
considered as the
benchmark for comparing
prices in this zone

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Pallikarnai has witnessed


the launch of

1,684

DESTINATION
PALLIKARNAI

units since 2007, of which

1,382

units have been

absorbed till Q3 2012

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF PALLIKARNAI


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*
18%

16%

No. of Units

2,000
1,600

4%

1,200

2%

2%

2%

800
400

We forecast prices in
Pallikarnai to increase by

93% in the next 5 years

Currently, the percentage


of unsold units stands at

18%

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

Pallikarnai, which is located a few km. south of


Velachery, is well connected by road to all the
major employment hubs in south Chennai.
However, absence of rail network has restricted
the growth in prices of this destination. Going
forward, this is about to change as the upcoming
Vandalur-Velachery Monorail project will
signicantly enhance the rail connectivity of
Pallikarnai with the GST Road and the city centre.
From 2007 to 2010, Pallikarnai witnessed a
healthy absorption trend. However, the sudden
surge in new launches during 2011 along with a
price rise of 10% led to a signicant increase in
unsold units percentage during the year.
Currently, the percentage of unsold units stands
at 18%.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN PALLIKARNAI
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

2012*

The dynamics of Pallikarnai are expected to


change dramatically in the coming years due to
the upcoming Vandalur Velachery Monorail
network. This will narrow down the current price
dierential between Pallikarnai and Adyar.
Currently, prices in Pallikarnai are 65% lower than
Adyar, which is the most established market in
South Chennai. In the next ve years, we expect
this discount rate to narrow down to 49% due to
various reasons discussed before. This will result
in prices increasing from `4,200/sq.ft to
`8,100/sq.ft by 2017.

PRICE FORECAST
* Figures in `/sq.ft.

2012

900

2017E
`15,858

`12,000
`8,100
`4,200

230

228

181
52

Launches

94

Source: Knight Frank Research

Adyar

Pallikarnai

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT

` 3.3

mn. is the minimum

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

ticket size investment for


a 2 BHK apartment in
Pallikarnai

16,000
14,000
12,000

49%

10,000

65%

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Before
2008

Pallikarnai

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Discount Margin

Adyar

Source: Knight Frank Research

Investment Options in Pallikarnai


Appartment Sizes start
from

571 sq.ft. for a 1

INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

BHK in Pallikarnai
1325 - 2136

3BHK

5.6 - 8.9

SELECT PROJECTS
790 - 1766

571 - 623

2BHK

1BHK

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

3.3 - 7.4

2.4 - 2.6

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

Project

Developer

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

Mapleton

Appaswamy

473

Jan-11

Apr-13

Akash
Ganga

Rajkham

87

Apr-12

Dec-13

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Medavakkam has witnessed


the launch of

5,707

DESTINATION
MEDAVAKKAM

units since 2007, of which

4,147

units have been

absorbed till Q3 2012

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF MEDAVAKKAM


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*
27%

No. of Units

26%
22%

6,000

3%

3%

4,500

3%

3,000
1,500

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

Medavakkam, which is around 6 km. south of


Velachery, is another emerging residential hub
with excellent road connectivity with
Sholinganallur on the OMR and Tambaram on GST
road. Sharing similar characteristics with
Pallikarnai, the prices in this destination have
moved in the same range as Pallikarnai over the
last ve years.

We forecast prices in
Medavakkam to increase by

103%

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Medavakkam witnessed a large number of new


launches during 2010 and as it lacked the
capacity to absorb such a huge number, there
was a sudden jump in unsold inventory. During

2011 and 2012, the percentage of unsold


inventory increased further despite lesser number
of new launches due to the oversupply from the
previous year. As of Q3 2012, the unsold
inventory in Medavakkam stands at 27%.
Over the next ve years, we expect Medavakkam
to follow Pallikarnai in terms of price as the
benet of Vandalur Velachery Monorail network
will accrue equally to this destination too. The
price dierential with Adyar will similarly narrow
down from 68% in 2012 to 51% by 2017, resulting
in a price rise from `3,800/sq.ft to `7,700/sq.ft.

from 2012 to 2017

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN MEDAVAKKAM
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

PRICE FORECAST
* Figures in `/sq.ft

2012

2017E
`15,858

2,411
`12,000

`7,700
`3,800

1,256
870
621
315

Launches

233

Source: Knight Frank Research

Adyar

Medavakkam

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT

` 3.4
` 4.6

mn. and
mn. are the

minimum ticket Sizes for


investment in Medavakkam
for a 2 BHK and 3 BHK
respectively

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000

51%

68%

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Before
2008

Medavakkam

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Discount Margin

Adyar

Source: Knight Frank Research

Over the next ve years,


we expect

Medavakkam

Investment Options in Medavakkam


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

to follow Pallikarnai in
terms of price

2450 - 2710

4BHK

9.3 - 10.3

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

Developer

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

Purva

Purvankara

756

Mar-11

Mar-14

Spring
Field

Navin
Housing

280

Oct-10

Dec-14

Majestica

Vasavi
Housing

260

Jul-10

Dec-14

Indiabulls
Greens

Indiabulls

900

Sep-10 May-14

Windermere

1220 - 2161

3BHK

4.6 - 8.2

902 - 1254

2BHK

3.4 - 4.8

560 - 715

1BHK

2.1 - 2.7

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

DELHI-NCR

The National Capital Region (NCR) is spread over 33,578 sq. km. making it
one of the largest urban agglomerations in the world. It was initially
conceived under the rst Master Plan of Delhi in 1962 and conceptualized
with the foremost objective of creating a metropolitan area around Delhi,
so as to ease out the pressure on the national capital. The NCR
encompasses of the entire National Capital Territory of Delhi as well as
select urban areas from its neighbouring states of Haryana, Rajasthan
and Uttar Pradesh (UP). By virtue of this development, Gurgaon, Noida
and Greater Noida emerged as the major sub-regions of the NCR.

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION POPULATION


Population in Millions

1991

27.36

3.2%

Population

2001

37.10

3.1%

2011

47.38

2.5%

Average Annual Growth

Source: Census 2011, Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

DELHI-NCR MAP

DELHI

GHAZIABAD

35000

5000

12000

NOIDA

GURGAON

A National Capital Region Planning Board (NCRPB) was formed under the NCR Planning
Board Act 1985, by the Ministry of Urban Development. The central focus of the board
was to coordinate the development of the NCR with the State Governments of Haryana,
Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Led by Gurgaon and Noida, the NCR has witnessed
substantial growth as a centre for e-commerce associated businesses including
outsourcing and o-shoring activities. Major industries like IT/ITeS, Automobile and
Pharmaceuticals contribute the most towards the economy of this region.
Proximity to the national capital and enhanced connectivity due to the metro line
across the NCR, has positioned it as the most preferred destination for corporate and
MNCs to set up their oces. The prime ones include Microsoft, IBM, Amdocs, Norte,
Dell, Nokia, SAP, Accenture, Motorola and Ericsson. Hence, it is believed that the NCR is
on the brink of emerging as the 'knowledge' hub of India. Along the growth of the
service industry the region witnessed huge immigration. As per Census 2011, the
population of the NCR witnessed a 2.5% annual rise during the decade 2001-2011, the
total population now stands at 47.38 mn.

FARIDABAD

GREATER NOIDA
Major Roads
Major Roads
Railway Line
Railway Line
Existing Metro
Metro Corridor I
Under Construction Metro
Metro Corridor II
Delhi
South Zone
Gurgaon
West Zone
Faridabad
Central Zone
Noida
East Zone
Greater Noida
North Zone
Ghaziabad
Price Contours (`/ sq.ft)
Price Contours (`/ sq.ft)

STATE/UT

REGIONS

Delhi

Delhi - National Capital Territory

1,483

Haryana

Faridabad, Gurgaon, Mewat, Rohtak,


Sonepat, Rewari, Jhajjhar, Panipat
and Palwal

13,413

UP

Meerut, Ghaziabad, Gautam


Budha Nagar, Bulandshahr
and Baghpat

Rajasthan

Alwar

Total

AREA (SQ. KM.)

10,853

7,829
33,578

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

National Capital Region


(NCR) is spread over

33,578

Market
Overview

sq.km.
The NCR is divided into six broad zones: Delhi,
Gurgaon, Noida/ Greater Noida, Faridabad,
Ghaziabad and Alwar.

Population of the NCR


increased by

20

ZONE

MAJOR RESIDENTIAL
DESTINATIONS

Delhi

Rohini, Ashok Vihar, Civil Lines,


Greater Kailash, South Extension,
Hauz Khas, Anand Vihar, Pashchim
Vihar, Janakpuri, Raja Garden,
Tagore Garden, Rajouri Garden

Gurgaon

Dharuhera, Golf Course Road,


Sohna Road, MG Road, NH-8,
Dwarka Expressway, Manesar

Noida/Greater
Noida

Noida, Noida Extension, NoidaGreater Noida Expressway

Faridabad

Neharpar, Dayal Bagh Colony,


Sainik Colony

Ghaziabad

Crossing Republik, Indraprastha


Yojna, Raj Nagar, Raj Nagar
Extension

Alwar

Neemrana, Bhiwadi, Behror


Highway, Station Road

mn. in

THE last 2 decades

55% of the residential


under-construction units

NATIONAL CAPITAL TERRITORY


DELHI

in Noida and Greater Noida


Delhi, the capital of India is the fth most
populated city in the world. It is situated in
central north India and stands on the west bank
of Yamuna River. It is spread over an area of 1,483
sq. km., 216 m. above sea level and has a
population of around 16.75 mn. Delhi is the
political hub of India comprising headquarters of
all the political parties as well as important
administrative oces. It has evolved from being a
city of royal power to the seat of bureaucratic
power.
It has also transpired as one of the central hubs
of North India's trading and service industry.
Delhi has emerged as the major commercial
centre for small, medium and large scale
industries. The information technology (IT),
electronic, textile and fashion industry are also
the major contributors to Delhi's economy.

Based on its geographical locations the city is


divided into North Delhi, East Delhi, West Delhi
and South Delhi.
North Delhi houses numerous small scale
industries and has emerged as one of the major
markets of small industries. Low-rise
condominiums and narrow streets full of chaos
are the major characteristic of North Delhi. This
refrains major white-collared executives from
living here. It looks entirely dierent from the
more modern New Delhi and south Delhi areas.
Chawri Bazaar, Chandini Chowk, Mori Gate,
Kashmere Gate, Sadar Bazaar and Tis Hazaari are
some of the major micro-markets of Old Delhi.
East Delhi is largely inhabited by the middleincome working class population. The residential
real estate market comprises the independent
houses and DDA apartments. The 2010 Common
Wealth Games held in East Delhi completely
changed its landscape and gave the necessary
growth impetus to this region. Delhi Metro has
enhanced the connectivity of East Delhi with
major destinations like Delhi City Centre and
Noida. Some of the major micro-markets of East
Delhi are Akshardham, Pushpanjali Enclave,
Vivek Vihar, Patparganj, Lakshmi Nagar, Mayur
Vihar, and Preet Vihar.

ZONE-WISE SPILT UP OF
UNDER CONSTRUCTION UNITS

18.8%

0.8%

2.0%

23.6%

21.2%

33.7%

Delhi

Noida

Faridabad

Gurgaon

Gt. Noida

Ghaziabad

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

residential

units launched in DELHI NCR


since 2007

South Delhi is considered to be the most auent


micro-market of Delhi. The residential real estate
comprises independent houses and bungalow
style developments. Major administrative oces
including embassies and consulates are located
here. By virtue of this, South Delhi has become
the most sought after destination among the
high-prole bureaucrats and the top corporate
executives. High residential demand and dearth
of new supply has propelled the residential prices
in this part of Delhi.
Its proximity to the international airport,
educational institutions and to the city centre has
made this region the most preferred destination.
Moreover, proximity to the commercial hub of
Nehru Place and Lajpat Nagar coupled with the
presence of organized retail further augmented
the demand for this region. Some of the major
micro-markets are Greater Kailash, Chanakyapuri,
Lajpat Nagar, Nehru Place, Defence Colony,
Vasant Kunj, Hauz Khas and Friends Colony.

GURGAON
Gurgaon was developed to ease out the
burgeoning growth of New Delhi. It is one of the
four major satellite cities of the NCR, located 30

km. south of New Delhi. The evolution of Gurgaon


coincides with the 1990s liberalization of the
Indian economy. Contemporary Gurgaon is dotted
with high-rise buildings and spectacular malls.
Over the years Gurgaon earned the sobriquets of
the 'Millennium City' and the 'Mall City' of India.
Gurgaon is not only an industrial and nancial
centre of Haryana but also one of the most
pronounced IT/ITeS outsourcing and o-shoring
hubs in the world. Further, it is also a major hub
for the automobile, telecom and garment
manufacturing industries. Major factors like
availability of huge land parcels, quality
commercial properties, proximity to the
international airport, favourable government
policies and access to the talent pool lured many
corporates to Gurgaon.
Some of the prime residential and commercial
micro-markets of Gurgaon include MehrauliGurgaon Road (MG Road), Golf Course Road, Golf
Course Extension Road, Sohna Road and NH-8.
These locations are well-connected with New
Delhi through the six-lane NH-8 and MG Road.
The NH-8 also provides quick and easy access to
the New Delhi International Airport. Further, a 14
km. Southern Peripheral Road (SPR) covers all the
major developments in this part of Gurgaon and
connects MG Road and Golf Course Extension
Road with NH-8. The connectivity between the
adjoining markets of Delhi and Noida is further
enhanced by the existing metro-rail. Further, a
new residential belt has emerged along the
upcoming 8 lane 18 km. Northern Peripheral Road
(NPR) or Dwarka Expressway. This expressway
would act as an alternative route for the existing
Delhi-Gurgaon Expressway. A 135 km. KundliManesar-Palwal (KMP) Expressway is under
construction, once completed this expressway
will provide connectivity with the major industrial
hubs of Haryana. This has given a llip to
commercialization in Manesar.

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF NCR


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*
23.8%

No. of Units

518,200

West Delhi is primarily a residential hub with a


cosmopolitan population. Sound infrastructure
and a well-developed organized retail market
oered the necessary boost to this region.
Additionally, West Delhi region gained
prominence due to its proximity to the
commercial hubs of Janakpuri, Rajaouri Gardens
and Punjabi Bagh. Over the years, it has emerged
as the most sought after destination thereby
making it one of the major posh localities of
Delhi. Patel Nagar, Punjabi Bagh, Pitampura,
Rohini, Dwarka, Janakpuri and Rajouri Garden are
some of the major micro-markets of this region.

19.2%

600,000

14.1%

500,000
400,000
300,000

9.4%
9%

7.8%

200,000
100,000

Supply

Demand

% of Unsold Units (RHS)

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

395,650 residential
units absorbed in Delhi NCR
since 2007

Golf Course Road is the most sought after


destination owing to its proximity to South Delhi
(a posh locality) and hence boasts of the highest
residential property prices in Gurgaon. MG Road
is a self-sustaining micro-market with the
presence of well-developed organised retail
market, superior residential development and
quality commercial oces. DLF Cybercity, Udyog
Vihar, Signature Towers, DLF Corporate Park,
Spaze IT Park, Vatika Business Park and Unitech
Infospace are some of the major commercial
buildings. Golf Course Extension Road is catching
up with the Golf Course Road with its quality
residential development.

NOIDA
Noida city is located in the Gautam Buddha Nagar
district of Uttar Pradesh. Geographically it is
situated to the south-east of Delhi and spread
over 20,316 hectares. New Okhla Industrial
Development Authority is the nodal agency for
the overall development of this region. Noida has
emerged as one of the major satellite cities of the
NCR after Gurgaon. Noida is well connected with
Delhi, Agra, Faridabad and Ghaziabad. A 165 km.
Yamuna Expressway provides connectivity with
Agra via Mathura; an eight-lane Delhi-Noida-Delhi
(DND) Flyover connects Noida and Delhi and a
Faridabad-Noida-Ghaziabad (FNG) highway
provides connectivity with Faridabad and
Ghaziabad. Noida has the Delhi Metro facility till
the City Centre from Delhi and also up to Vaishali.
The metro will further expand in Noida and also
cover Noida Extension and Greater Noida.

145,395 residential
units launched in Noida
during 2007-12

Over the years, Noida has developed into an


IT/ITeS hub. A number of IT/ITeS companies like
HCL, Dell, Adobe Systems, ATC Labs, Interra, CSC,
Fiserv, IBM and AON Hewitt have set up their base
in the city. It is now swiftly emerging into a hub
for automobile ancillary units with multinational
companies like Honda-SIEL, Escorts and Daewoo
setting up oces here. Noida-Greater Noida
Expressway and Sector 58, 62, 63 and 64 have
emerged as the major commercial hubs in Noida.

GREATER NOIDA

Noida Expressway and the Yamuna Expressway


provides connectivity between Noida, Greater
Noida and Agra. Greater Noida also boasts of
India's rst 'Grand Prix' which marked it presence
on the International Motor Racing Circuit.
Moreover it is also emerging as a planned
industrial region and an educational hub.

FARIDABAD
Faridabad is the south-eastern district of Haryana
and the largest city of the state. Being an
industrial hub it has over 25,000 small-scale
industries. The Faridabad-Ballabgarh complex
employs over 500,000 people in approximately
15,000 manufacturing units. The region has
gained prominence due to its proximity to the
National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi, Gurgaon
and Greater Noida. For the ease of administration,
Faridabad district is divided into two sub
divisions viz. Faridabad and Ballabgarh.
The city is 25 km. from ISBT, Delhi and only 10 km.
from the Ashram Crossing on Mathura Road. The
Delhi-Mathura-Agra Road (NH-2) passes through
the city via Faridabad, Ballabgarh and Palwal.
Moreover, Faridabad is connected with
Delhi through the metro rail service which
currently terminates at the Delhi-Faridabad
border in Badarpur.
Faridabad houses several Indian and MNC
manufacturing companies. Motorcycles, tyres,
auto-ancillaries, refrigerators, tractors and
switch-gears are some of the major industries in
Faridabad. Larsen & Turbo (L&T), ABB, Goodyear,
Whirlpool, Eicher, JCB, Orient Fans, Bharat Gears,
Lakhani Shoes, Lafarge, Yamaha, Havell's,
Escorts and Castrol are some of the major
companies having their base in Faridabad.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN NCR
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

171,261

Greater Noida is a new suburb located 20 km from


Noida in Gautam Buddha Nagar district of Uttar
Pradesh. Spread over 20,000 acres, it is situated
about 40 km south-east of New Delhi and forms a
part of the NCR. Greater Noida Industrial
Development Authority (GNIDA) is the nodal
agency for the overall development of this region.
Physical infrastructure of Greater Noida has been
crafted very meticulously by the GNIDA. Wide
roads along with service roads for all the major
arterial roads have been built. The Noida-Greater

111,649

78,222
59,176

46,605

Launches

51,288

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Reliance Energy has


proposed a 1000 hectares
multi-product SEZ in
Ghaziabad

GHAZIABAD
Ghaziabad forming one of the major constituents
of the NCR is strategically located 20 km. to the
east of New Delhi. It is a planned industrial city
spread over 1,933 sq. km. Moreover, it also acts
as a main entrance for the state of Uttar Pradesh.
Ghaziabad Development Authority (GDA) is the
nodal agency for the overall development of the
city. The region has gained prominence due to its
proximity to the National Capital Territory (NCT) of
Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida and Meerut. The city's real
estate market witnessed high traction with an
improvement in the physical and social
infrastructure.
Two major arterial roads NH-24 and NH-58
passing through Ghaziabad, provide connectivity
with Lucknow and Badrinath respectively. To
decongest the existing highways, the GDA has
proposed the widening of the NH-24 from the
existing four lanes to six lanes. Further, metro rail
has enhanced the connectivity with other regions
of the NCR. Further, the connectivity within
Ghaziabad will improve with the expansion of the
existing metro rail from Dilshad Garden to New
Bus Stand located near the Meerut Road
crossing. Major residential micro-markets like
Vaishali, Indirapuram, Vasundhara and Raj Nagar
Extension have emerged along these highways.

Alwar is one of the nodes


for the Delhi-Mumbai
Industrial Corridor (DMIC)
and Dedicated Freight
Corridor (DFC)

Being an industrial hub it has over 14,000 smallscale industries, majorly manufacturing defence
products, railway wagons, heavy chains, bicycles
and glassware. Besides many large multi-national
companies, banks, IT and telecom services have
set up their base here. Reliance Energy's
proposed 1,000 hectares multi-product SEZ,
existing manufacturing units of Coca-cola and ITC
have further augmented demand for residential
as well as commercial real estate in Ghaziabad.

ALWAR
Alwar is a district in Rajasthan (a state in India)
located to the south-west of Gurgaon. It is spread
over 8,380 sq.km. of which 262 sq.km. forms a
part of the National Capital Region (NCR).
Rajasthan State Industrial Development and
Investment Corporation Ltd. (RIICO) is the major
nodal agency for the development of Rajasthan.
RIICO has been a catalyst for the overall industrial
transformation of the state. Over the years with
progressive industrial policies by the state
government, the district is now able to boast of
various industrial hubs. Some of the major
commercial areas are Bhiwadi, Tapookara,
Khushkhera and Neemrana. These commercial
areas house sectors like cement, automobile,

glass & ceramics, mines & minerals, textiles and


bio-tech industry. Moreover, this region is one of
the nodes for the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial
Corridor (DMIC) and Dedicated Freight Corridor
(DFC).
Rajasthan government has signed an MOU with
JETRO (Japanese External Trade Organization) for
setting up units in Neemrana. This region is
equidistant from Delhi and Jaipur and is also an
important part of the DMIC. These factors have
propped up the demand for commercial as well as
residential real estate in this region.
The Bhiwadi Industrial Hub is a mere 45 km. from
the Gurgaon city centre. Proximity to the city has
augmented demand for the residential as well as
commercial real estate in Bhiwadi. It alone
houses around 2,500 small, medium and large
industries including MNC industrial units. Some
of the major companies having their set up in
Alwar are Honda Siel Car, United Breweries,
Lafarge, Jaquar, Amtek India and Shree Cement.
The landscape of the NCR market has witnessed a
sea change in the last decade mainly on account
of new master development plans. Moreover,
construction of various yovers, underpasses,
expressways and Metro Rail has enhanced
connectivity with all the parts of the region. These
have also changed the way people commute,
especially due to the Metro Rail. New Delhi being
the National Capital is perennially the most
sought after destination for commercial as well as
residential real estate. Further, to support the
burgeoning growth of New Delhi, newer
destinations like Gurgaon, Noida and Greater
Noida emerged in the peripheral region. Many
companies were attracted to these newer
destinations which were meticulously planned
and had a proper blend of residential and
commercial real estate developments. The NCR
witnessed a huge inux of people mainly on
account of new jobs being created by the
companies. Besides the inclination of the people
to reside closer to their work-place gave a growth
impetus to the residential real estate demand.
Since 2007, the NCR residential real estate
segment witnessed the launch of over 500,000
units.
During 2007 and 2009, the NCR residential
market witnessed an average new launch of
60,000 units per year. The arithmetic of new
launches changed completely in the last 2-3 years
owing to numerous launches of mega townships
in new destinations like Noida and Greater Noida.
Since 2009, the average residential launch per
year has increased two-fold to 120,000 units.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Since 2009, the average


residential launch per

Real Estate Drivers

year has increased two-

Employment Indicators

fold to 120,000 units in


delhi NCR

Infrastructure Development

Service Sectors

Manufacturing Sector

Rail Network

Road Network

IT/ITeS Sector

Auto Sector

Metro Corridor

Dwarka Expressway

Other Service Sectors

Other Manufacturing
Sectors

Monorail Corridor

Yamuna Expressway
Southern Periphral Road
KMP Expressway

REGULATORY AND MARKET ASPECT


NATURE OF LEVY

DELHI

GURGAON

NOIDA/
GREATER NOIDA

GHAZIABAD

Stamp duty

6% for Men
5% for Joint
4% for Women

7% for Men
6% for Joint
5% for Women

7% for Men
6% for Joint
5% for Women

8% + 2%
additional charges

Registration

1% of the sale deed

`15,000 (for
properties above
`2.5mn)

`22,000

1% of market
value or `30,000
whichever is less

Service Tax (on under


construction property)

3.09%

3.09%

3.09%

3.09%

MARKET NORMS
ASPECTS

DELHI

GURGAON

NOIDA/
GREATER NOIDA

GHAZIABAD

Time line for property


registration

Any time until


possession

Any time until


possession

Any time until


possession

Any time until


possession

Re-sale before
possession

Allowed

Allowed

Allowed

Allowed

First transfer is
sometimes free and
at times it is `100`150 per sq. ft.

`100-`150
per sq. ft.

`100-`150
per sq. ft.

Transfer charges
payable to builder

Loading
(as % of carpet)

12-20%

33-45%

20-45%

25-33%

Remarks

Speculative Market

Speculative Market

Speculative Market

Speculative
Market

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

EXISTING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK


165 km. Yamuna Expressway
is now open to public

Completion of Gurgaon-

ROAD NETWORK

LENGTH

OBSERVATIONS

Delhi-Gurgaon
Expressway

28 km.

In January-2008, an eight-lane access controlled toll expressway along the


NH-8 was started between Gurgaon and Delhi. Starting at Dhaula Kaun in
Delhi the expressway terminates on the outskirts of Gurgaon in Manesar.

Delhi-Noida Direct
(DND) Flyway

9 km.

Started in May-2001, this eight-lane access controlled toll expressway


provides connectivity between Delhi and the satellite city of Noida.

Yamuna Expressway

165 km.

The six-lane expressway connecting Greater Noida with Agra started in


August-2012. This access controlled toll expressway is a better alternative
to NH-2 which earlier used to handle all the Agra bound trac from the
NCR.

Noida - Greater
Noida Expressway

25 km.

A six-lane highway providing connectivity between the two satellite cities


of the NCR i.e. Noida and Greater Noida.

NH-1

22 km.

NH-1 is over 450-km., primarily connecting Delhi with Attari in Punjab. Of


this, only 22-km. form a part of Delhi. This entire stretch is an eight-lane
highway. It starts from Singhu Border in the northern district of Delhi and
terminates at ISBT Kashmiri Gate.

NH-2 (Delhi-Mathura
Road)

12 km.

NH-2 is a 1,465 km. highway providing connectivity between Delhi and


West Bengal. A 12-km. stretch in Delhi forming part of the NH-2 is called the
Delhi-Mathura Road. It connects Delhi with Mathura via Ashram Chowk.

NH-10

18 km.

NH-10 is a 403 km. highway providing connectivity between Delhi and


Fazilka district of Punjab. Starting from the CBD of Delhi this 18 km. stretch
of NH-10 terminates at Tikri Kalan, near the Haryana-Delhi border.

Mehrauli-Gurgaon
Road

19 km.

A 19 km. stretch along the NH-236 connects Mehrauli (South Delhi) with
the Gurgaon city centre.

Old DelhiGurgaon Road

5 km.

Starting from the Samalkha Crossing in New Delhi, this 5 km. road runs
parallel to Delhi-Gurgaon Expressway (NH8) providing connectivity
between Delhi and Gurgaon.

Gurgaon-Faridabad
Road

25 km.

A 25 km. toll highway starting from Gurgaon's Mehrauli Road in


Sikanderpur and ending at the junction of Pali Bhakri Road in Faridabad,
has been built by widening the existing two-lane road to four lanes.

BallabhgarhSohna Road

28 km.

A two-lane 28 km. toll highway connects Faridabad and Sohna, the two
major cities of Haryana. It starts from Ballabhgarh and ends at Rewari Palwal.

Delhi-Faridabad
Skyway

4.4 km.

The tolled three-lane expressway on NH-2 provides connectivity between


Delhi and Faridabad.

Faridabad Road has now


enhanced connectivity
between the two cities

EXISTING METRO RAIL NETWORK


METRO TRAIN
NETWORK

LENGTH

OBSERVATIONS

Delhi Metro Rail

190 km.

A well-connected six-lane Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) is laid across


the NCR.

Delhi Airport Metro


Express (DAME)

22 km.

It is a part of the Delhi Metro line starting from New Delhi Railway Station to
the Dwarka Sector 21 connecting the city centre with the Indira Gandhi
International Airport.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

UPCOMING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK


136 km. KMP Expressway will
connect important

CONNECTIVITY

LENGTH

OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Kundli-ManesarPalwal (KMP)
Expressway

136 km.

An access controlled 4/6 lane expressway


connecting Kundli with Palwal via Manesar in
Haryana. It is proposed to connect important
industrial centres in Haryana, and intersects
four of India's busiest National Highways:
NH-1 near Kundli (Sonipat), NH-10 near
Bahadurgarh, NH-8 at Manesar (Gurgaon)
and NH-2 near Palwal (Faridabad)

Under
construction

2013-14

Dwarka
Expressway

18 km.

Under
construction

2014-15

Southern
Peripheral Road
(SPR)

14 km.

Under
construction

2013-14

Faridabad-NoidaGhaziabad (FNG)
Expressway

56 km.

Under
construction

Beyond 2016

industrial centres in
Haryana

Once completed the


Dwarka Expressway will
enhacne the connectivity
between Delhi and
Gurgaon

Rapid Metro Rail Gurgaon will connect the existing


Sikanderpur Metro station
with the NH-8

Dwarka Expressway also called the Northern


Peripheral Road (NPR) is an eight-lane
expressway, providing the shortest
alternative between the new growth centres
of Delhi and Gurgaon. The NPR starting from
Dwarka will connect Palam Vihar and the
forthcoming SEZs in Gurgaon to join the NH-8
near Kherki Dhaula.
A 90 m. wide SPR will connect Gurgaon and
Manesar with South Delhi through the
current MG Road and the Faridabad Highway.
The alignment of SPR (starting from MG
Road) connects NH-8 about 1 km. before the
Kherki Dhaula Toll Plaza. SPR has acquired
the status of national highway and has been
allotted number 236.
Connecting Faridabad, Noida and
Ghaziabad. A stretch of 8 km. out of 16 km.,
that falls under the jurisdiction of Noida
authority is complete.

UPCOMING METRO RAIL NETWORK


METRO TRAIN
NETWORK

LENGTH

OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Rapid Metro Rail


Gurgaon(RMRG)
Phase I

6.1 km.

This intra-city Metro line connects the


existing Sikanderpur metro station with the
NH-8. This will provide the much needed
access into areas like Cyber City, Mall of
India, as well as to the NH-8.

Under
construction

2013-14

Rapid Metro Rail


Gurgaon (RMRG)
Phase II

12 km.

A 7 km. extension to the RMRG Phase I, has


been proposed. This will provide connectivity
between Sikanderpur and Sector 55-56 in
South Gurgaon.
Another 6 km. metro line has been planned
to provide connectivity upto Dwarka in the
north.

Bid invited

Beyond 2015

BadarpurFaridabad Metro
Corridor

14 km.

This corridor is an extension of the existing


Central Secretariat-Badarpur Metro Line. The
new corridor once completed will connect
Delhi with its satellite city of Faridabad. Ninestations have been planned on this corridor
extending upto YMCA Chowk in Faridabad.

Under
Construction

2016-17

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Gurgaon accounts for 57%


of the office space stock
of NCR

Employment Indicators in the


National Capital Region
The economy of the NCR is driven by multiple
industries primarily by manufacturing, IT/ITeS,
small and medium enterprises, banking and
financial services and consulting. Delhi being the
national capital houses numerous administrative
offices of the Government of India. Recently,
Gurgaon and Noida have emerged as a
manufacturing and IT/ITeS hub.

IT/ITeS SECTOR
Over the past decade, Gurgaon, Noida and
Greater Noida have emerged as major IT/ITeS
centres of India. Proximity to Delhi, sound
infrastructure, cosmopolitan culture, availability
of skilled workforce and industry-friendly
government policies made it a favourable
destination among the IT/ITeS companies. The
thriving outsourcing industry provides direct and
indirect employment to over 500,000 people.
Prominent companies having operation in this
region are Genpact, Dell, Amdocs, Norte, HP,
Motorola, TCS, Alcatel, Siemens, HCL, Patni and
CSC.

Office space stock in

A good number of IT/ITeS SEZs have been


developed in Gurgaon, Noida & Greater Noida.
Over 22 major IT/ITeS companies are operational
in this region spread over 600 hectares of land. In
terms of geographical spread, nearly 60% of
these developments are concentrated around
Gurgaon, 35% around Noida, including Greater
Noida and merely 5% in Delhi.

Noida 21 mn.sq.ft.
Gurgaon has evolved as the major Peripheral
Business District of the NCR. It has over 55 mn.
sq.ft. of office stock which is primarily
concentrated in the DLF Cyber City (Phase I-V) and
micro-markets along the Golf Course Road. This
region houses many renowned tech-parks and
IT/ITeS SEZ. Micro-markets along the MG Road,
Golf Course Road, DLF Phase IV and Golf Course
Extension have evolved into self-sustaining hubs.
This is mainly on account of quality commercial
offices, superior residential developments and
well-developed organised retail markets.
Signature Towers, DLF Cyber City, Unitech
Infospace, Vatika Business Park and Global
Business Park are some of the notable
commercial buildings in Gurgaon.
Owing to its proximity to New Delhi, favourable
industrial policies and huge availability of land,
Noida has emerged as the preferred destination
for IT/ITeS companies. Over the last decade,

Noida has become a hub for BPOs (Business


Process Outsourcing) and KPOs (Knowledge
Process Outsourcing) services. It has over 21 mn.
sq. ft. of office stock which is predominantly
present in Sectors 29, 57 to 60, 62 and 63.
Moreover, many commercial offices and IT Parks
have been planned along the Noida Expressway
and Yamuna Expressway. This will further
augment the employment opportunities in this
region. A number of IT/ITeS companies like HCL,
Dell, Adobe Systems, IBM and AON Hewitt have
set up their base here.
The country's IT-ITeS sector during 2004-2011 has
grown at an annual rate of 22.5% to `1,474bn.
and is estimated to reach `3,000bn. by 2017. As
per NASSCOM, the IT/ITeS sector has created
tremendous job opportunities, generating direct
and indirect employment of nearly 2.8 mn. and
around 8.9 mn. respectively. It is estimated that
employment growth would be more than 14 mn.
(directly and indirectly) by 2015 and around 30
mn. by 2030. We expect the NCR to continue its
growth trajectory in-line with the country's IT/ITeS
growth. With the strengthening of global
economy, robust domestic fundamentals and
easy availability of skilled human capital the
IT/ITeS industry here is expected to grow
significantly in the coming years.

MANUFACTURING SECTOR
The manufacturing activity in the NCR is
concentrated in the sub-regions of Haryana, Uttar
Pradesh and Rajasthan. The manufacturing
industry in this region was boosted through the
creation of Industrial Zones and Special Economic

ZONE WISE DISTRIBUTION OF


OFFICE SPACE STOCK
19.8%

3.4%

57.1%

19.6%
Delhi

Gt. Noida

Noida

Gurgaon

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

NCR OFFICE SPACE DYNAMICS


Oce space stock in NCR
101 mn. sq.ft.
160
140
120

Corporation (RIICO) were successful in developing


the Japanese zone in an expanse of 1,165 acres, in
Neemrana. The major Japanese companies that
have invested in Neemrana are Honda
Motorcycles and Scooters India Ltd., Nissin
Brakes, Mitsui Prime, TPR Autoparts and Daikin
Airconditioning.

100
80
60
40
20

Before 2008 2009 2010


2008

2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Stock
Occupied Stock

48 mn. sq.ft. oce space


stock to be added during
2012-17

IT/ITeS and BFSI &


Consulting together
account for 70% of the
oce space in the NCR

Zones (SEZs). Rapid industrialization witnessed


in the NCR led to a shift from agriculture in the
composition of the economy (of this region). The
economy of the NCR is now skewed towards the
manufacturing and service sector. The NCR
manufacturing sector contributes about 30% to
the total output of the region. The major
manufacturing industries that fuel the NCR
economy are automobile, auto ancillary,
electronic, textile, switch-gear and farm
equipments. The region accounts for a
substantial part of the country's production of
farm equipment (tractors) -20%, motor-cycles
50% and cars - 60%. The NCR Planning Board has
envisaged an infrastructure investment of around
USD 25 bn. by 2021, for the comprehensive
development of the region.
Constructive measures taken by the respective
state governments in the NCR propelled the
overall growth of manufacturing industries.
Haryana State Industrial & Infrastructure
Development Corporation Limited (HSIIDC), Uttar
Pradesh Industrial Development Corporation
(UPIDC) and Delhi State Industrial & Infrastructure
Development Corporation Limited (DSIIDC) have
been instituted by Haryana, UP and Delhi
government respectively, to promote
industrialization. Consequently, many industrial
centres were created in NCR, like IMT Manesar
and Udyog Vihar in Gurgaon; Okhla Industrial
Complex, Wazirpur Industrial Complex, Rohtak
Road Industrial Complex, Kirti Nagar Packing
Complex, Bawana and Narella industrial complex
in Delhi. Besides, major industries were set up in
Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddha Nagar in UP. The
Rajasthan Industrial Development and Investment

Availability of huge tracts of land coupled with


favourable government policies lured many
manufacturing companies to this region.
Renowned manufacturing companies like Maruti,
Suzuki, Hero Motors, Honda, Toyota, Honda-SIEL,
Escorts and Samsung Telecommunications have
set-up their base here.
By virtue of being the National Capital Region,
there would be no dearth of demand for the
residential real estate sector here. IT/ITeS and
BFSI are the most dominant industries, moreover,
being the business capital it is home to the
corporate headquarters of several companies.
Currently the total oce stock in the NCR is about
101.48 mn. sq.ft. of which 83 mn. sq. ft. is
occupied resulting in a vacancy level of 18%. The
city's oce market clocked absorption of almost
9 mn. sq.ft. during 2011. The IT/ ITeS industry still
remains the key demand driver for oce space in
the NCR. The current situation indicates that Gurgaon
with 57% of the total occupied space in the region
has the highest density of oce space, implying
a large proportion of employment opportunities
emanating in the NCR. We estimate that the
occupied oce space in the region will go up by
47% during 2011-17. This growth in eect will
drive the residential markets in the city.

OFFICE SPACE BREAK-UP


15%

30%

40%

15%
IT/ITeS

Manufacturing

BFSI & Consulting

Others

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Ol
dG

ur
ga

on

Ro

ad

GURGAON MAP

Ico Chowk

oad
di R
tau
Pa
oa
d

d
oa

si
xten
course e
Golf

Pataudi R

Major Roads
Existing Metro
Under Construction Metro
Under Construction Dwarka Expressway
Airport
Railway Line
Benchmark location
Top destination
Employment Hubs

GREATER NOIDA MAP

Major Roads
Railway Line
Proposed Metro Rail
Noida
Greater Noida
Benchmark location
Top destination
Employment Hubs

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

119,404 residential
units launched in Gurgaon
during 2007-12

PREFERRED
ZONES IN
THE NCR
New Delhi being the national capital of the
country has always been the most preferred
destination in India. The dominance of the city in
business and bureaucratic oces has been the
major driver for real estate development. We
believe New Delhi as a destination will continue
with its dominance and be in demand
perpetually. The city is land-locked and as such
land is hardly available within the city limits.
Hence, to support the ever burgeoning growth of
the city, satellite cities like Gurgaon, Noida,
Ghaziabad, Faridabad and Greater Noida
emerged. However, we do not expect gains in all
the residential markets to be identical. We
believe residential markets of Gurgaon, Noida
and Greater Noida will grow at a higher
magnitude based on factors like employment
opportunities and infrastructure developments.
We have considered all these dynamics while
selecting the investment destinations.

A new residential belt has


emerged along the
upcoming Dwarka
Expressway

As a result of our analysis, we expect Gurgaon,


Noida and Greater Noida to be the biggest
beneciaries in the next 5 years. These zones are
primarily hubs for the IT/ITeS industry and we
anticipate growth momentum to accelerate in the
next ve years. This expectation is built on the
premise that it is a planned city and there is
visibility on the development of the infrastructure
projects. Relatively lower oce rentals, large
oce space options and well-developed
residential markets are factors that make this
zone a preferred place for setting up oces.
Going forward, development of the Dwarka
Expressway in Gurgaon, Metro connectivity in
Noida and Greater Noida will only augment the
cause.

also one of the most pronounced IT/ITeS


outsourcing and o-shoring hubs in the world.
The major prime residential and commercial
micro-markets of Gurgaon include MG Road, Golf
Course Road, Golf Course Extension Road, Sohna
Road and NH-8. These locations are wellconnected with New Delhi through the six-lane
NH-8 and MG Road, thereby providing quick and
easy access to the New Delhi International
Airport. Moreover, a 14 km. Southern Peripheral
Road (SPR) covers all the major developments in
this part of Gurgaon and connects MG Road and
Golf Course Extension Road with NH-8.
Golf Course Road is the most sought after
destination on account of its proximity to South
Delhi and hence boasts of the highest residential
property prices in Gurgaon. MG Road is a selfsustaining micro-market with the presence of a
well-developed orgainsed retail market, superior
residential development and quality commercial
oces. DLF Cybercity, Udyog Vihar, Signature
Towers, DLF Corporate Park, Spaze IT Park, Vatika
Business Park and Unitech Infospace are some of
the major commercial buildings. Golf Course
Extension Road is catching up with the Golf
Course Road with its quality residential
development.
A new residential belt has emerged along the
upcoming 18 km. Northern Peripheral Road
(NPR) or Dwarka Expressway. This 150 m. wide
road is expected to connect Dwarka and Palam
Vihar in New Delhi with NH-8 near Kherki Dhaula
in Gurgaon. This belt is predominantly a
residential area however a small proportion of it
is developed as a commercial area. Proximity to
the Dwarka Sub-city, Delhi International Airport

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT
LAUNCH TREND IN GURGAON
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

GURGAON
Gurgaon is a self-sustaining real estate market
comprising all the verticals of real estate viz.
residential, retail, commercial and industrial.
Major factors like availability of huge land
parcels, quality commercial properties, proximity
to the international airport, favourable tax
policies and access to the talented workforce
lured many corporates to Gurgaon. It is not only
an industrial and nancial centre of Haryana but

2009

2010

2011

2012*

26,356
23,439

24,307

19,870
16,492

8,939

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF GURGAON


Gurgaon witnessed
absorption of 98,713 units

* Till September 2012

during 2007-12

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*
17.3%

11%

140,000

No. of Units

120,000

8.1%

100,000
80,000

7.7%

60,000
40,000

7.3%

3.3%

20,000

Stock

IMT is a 1,750-acre ultra


modern Integrated
Industrial Park

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

and proposed diplomatic enclave in Dwarka


Phase II attracted many developers to this micromarket. The under-construction Rapid Metro Rail
Gurgaon (RMRG) is proposed to link various
micro-markets including Mall of India and DLF
Phase II & III, thereby enhancing connectivity
within Gurgaon. This is expected to augment
demand for residential real estate in these micromarkets. Developers like Sobha, BPTP, Indiabulls,
Raheja and Mahindra Life Spaces have launched
projects in this belt.

huge demand for residential real estate. Major


developers like DLF, Godrej, Anantraj and Emaar
MGF have well-perceived these developments
and strategically launched their projects in
Manesar. A 135 km. Kundli-Manesar-Palwal (KMP)
Expressway will further augment demand for the
residential real estate in Manesar.

Manesar located in the south Gurgaon region is a


major industrial hub. Industrial Model Town (IMT)
a Haryana government initiative, has given a
llip to commercialization in Manesar. Renowned
manufacturing companies like Maruti, Suzuki,
Hero Motors, Honda, Toyota and Samsung
Telecommunications are already present in
Manesar. Moreover, Manesar has become the
most preferred destination for many leading
companies including major IT/ITeS companies.
This, coupled with the Reliance SEZ will lead to
huge employment generation thereby leading to

As on September-2012, Gurgaon residential market


witnessed a total launch of 119,404 units since
2007. Moreover, owing to enhanced connectivity
and infrastructure development, the zone
witnessed absorption of 98,713 units during the
same period resulting in 17.3% remaining unsold.
Over the last four years the average annual
absorption of residential units in Gurgaon was
20,700. The launch momentum continued in
2012, as the region witnessed the launch of
16,492 units during the rst nine months of 2012
(9m 2012).

Hence, based on the above factors we anticipate


Gurgaon market to witness good appreciation
over the next 4-5 years.

Existing Infrastructure
DELHI-GURGAON EXPRESSWAY
Delhi Gurgaon Expressway is the most
breathtaking development in India's transport
history. It provides a free-owing alternative to
the congested NH-8. Since its opening in January

2008, this 8 lane 28 km. access controlled toll


expressway has enhanced the connectivity
between Delhi and the commercial hub, Gurgaon.
Starting from Dhaula Kaun in Delhi the
expressway terminates at Manesar and has 11
yovers and underpasses. The expressway has
four toll plazas including the 36 lane toll plaza at
the Delhi-Haryana Border.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

28 km. Delhi-Gurgaon
Expressway and 25-km.
Gurgaon-Faridabad Link
Road are the major
arterial roads

GURGAON-FARIDABAD ROAD
LINK
A 25 km. toll highway starting from Sector-54 of
Gurgaon and ending at the junction of Pali Bhakri
Road in Faridabad, has been built by widening
the existing two-lane road to four lanes.
toll expressway has enhanced the connectivity
between Delhi and the commercial hub, Gurgaon.
Starting from Dhaula Kaun in Delhi the
expressway terminates at Manesar and has 11
yovers and underpasses. The expressway has
four toll plazas including the 36-lane toll plaza at
the Delhi-Haryana Border.

Upcoming
Infrastructure
DWARKA EXPRESSWAY

Upcoming eight-lane 18 km.


Dwarka Expressway will aid
in decongesting the
existing Delhi-Gurgaon
Expressway

Dwarka Expressway also called the Northern


Peripheral Road (NPR) is an eight-lane 18 km.
expressway, providing the shortest alternative
between the new growth centres of Delhi and
Gurgaon. This 150m. wide road will start from
Dwarka Sector-21 and end at NH-8 (Gurgaon
Expressway) near Haldiram. This stretch has been
planned as an alternative link between Delhi and
Gurgaon, thereby decongesting the DelhiGurgaon Expressway (NH-8). The road will also
provide connectivity with the much-touted
Reliance-HSIIDC SEZ besides the Garhi Harsaru
Dry Depot. The new link would be parallel to the
expressway till it merges ahead of the IFFCO
Chowk. The proposed expressway will touch 16
new nearby residential colonies and would also
touch a commercial corridor. The project is underconstruction and is expected to be complete by
2014-15.

Extending further, a 13 km. Rapid Metro Rail have


been planned under RMRG Phase II, of which, a 7
km. line will provide connectivity between
Sikanderpur and Sector 55-56 in South Gurgaon
and another 6 km. rapid metro rail will connect
with Dwarka in the North.

KMP EXPRESSWAY
A 135 km. access controlled expressway
connecting Kundli with Palwal via Manesar in
Haryana is under construction. It will connect
important industrial centres of Haryana and
intersect four of India's busiest National
Highways: NH-1 near Kundli (Sonipat), NH-10 near
Bahadurgarh, NH-8 at Manesar (Gurgaon) and
NH-2 near Palwal (Faridabad). The project is
expected to be complete by 2013-14.

Employment
Indicators in
Gurgaon
Gurgaon is an industrial and nancial centre of
Haryana. It has now emerged as one of the
prominent destinations for IT/ITeS outsourcing
and o-shoring hubs, mainly due to its proximity
to the national capital coupled with huge
availability of quality commercial properties and
favourable government policies. The commercial
oce space is concentrated in North Gurgaon,

GURGAON OFFICE SPACE


DYNAMICS

80
70

RAPID METRO RAIL GURGAON


(RMRG)

60
50
40

Promoted by DLF, this is the rst metro by any


private company in the NCR. A total of 20 km.
rapid metro rail has been planned which will
provide connectivity between Sikanderpur in
Gurgaon with NH-8. A 6 km. rapid metro rail
under Phase-I is in advanced stages of
construction. This will provide the much needed
access into areas like Cyber City, Mall of India
and NH8. RMRG Phase-I is expected to commence
commercial operations by 2013-14.

30
20
10

BeFORE 2008 2009 2010


2008

Stock
Occupied Stock

2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Gurgaon has emerged as


one of the prominent
destinations for IT/ITeS
outsourcing and oshoring hubs

majorly around DLF Phase I-V, Sohna Road and


Golf Course Road while the industrial hub is
concentrated in South Gurgaon region of
Manesar. Renowned manufacturing companies
like Maruti, Suzuki, Hero Motors, Honda and
Toyota have their base in Manesar.Major builders
who have planned residential projects in Gurgaon
are DLF, Anantraj, Godrej, Unitech and Emaar
MGF.

Currently Gurgaon has 55 mn. sq. ft. of oce


space of which 40 mn. sq. ft. is occupied. We
expect Gurgaon oce space to post an
encouraging growth for the next ve years until
2017. While the oce stock will increase by 33%,
the occupied oce space will go up by a stellar
39% by 2017. Consequently the vacancy rate will
come down from the current level of 26.5% to
22.1%. We foresee that the employment
generation happening in the service industry will
feed the growth of residential markets in the
zone.

Employment Hubs in Gurgaon


Gurgaon total oce

PROJECT NAME

LOCATION

MAJOR COMPANIES

space stock is 55 mn. sq.ft.

BPTP I Park

Udyog Vihar

Cisco, Deloitte

DLF Cyber City

DLF Cyber City

BCG, Cannon, Emerson, Google, KPMG

Global Foyer

Golf Course Road

Ciesta Hospitality, Stryker Hospitality

Spaze I-Tech Park

Sohna Road

Capgemini, Aircel, Shoppers Stop, Yamaha Music

JMD IT Park

Sohna Road

Convergys, Global Expo

of which 40 mn. sq. ft. is


occupied

Gurgaon to witness
another 22.3 mn. sq.ft. of
new oce supply by 2017

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

18,649 residential
units launched in the
micro-markets along the
Dwarka Expressway since
2007

DESTINATION
DWARKA EXPRESSWAY
(Sec 103-106, 109-113)

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF


DWARKA EXPRESSWAY (Sec 103-106, 109-113)
* Till September 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010

2011

2012*

No. of Units

31%

15.6%
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

8.4%
6.5%
4.2%
0.3%

Stock

77%

OF THE RESIDENTIAL

UNITS WAS launched IN

the last 21 months

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

A new residential belt has emerged along the


upcoming Dwarka Expressway or Northern
Peripheral Road (NPR). The 18 km. expressway will
provide an alternative link between Delhi and the
commercial hub, Gurgaon. Based on its proximity
to the Dwarka Sub-city (Delhi) and to the city
centre of Gurgaon, the expressway can be subdivided into two parts viz. North and South. The
northern stretch starts from Sector 103-106, 109113 in close proximity to Dwarka and ends at
Sector 99 near the turn where the NPR connects
with the NH8. The southern stretch begins from
Sector 37D the far end of the NPR and terminates
near Manesar on the NH-8. The south stretch

comprises Sectors 37, 37C, 37D, 83, 84 and 88.


This entire belt is predominantly a residential
area with a small portion of commercial and
industrial developments.
Though the entire belt will immensely benet
from the new link road between Gurgaon and
Delhi, we anticipate the north region (Sec 103106, 109-113) of the expressway to benet more
compared to the south. We base our argument
primarily on account of north region's proximity to
Dwarka Sub-city, Delhi International Airport and
the proposed diplomatic enclave in Dwarka Phase
II.

RESIDENTIAL
PROJECT LAUNCH TREND IN
DWARKA EXPRESSWAY

PRICE FORECAST

* Till September 2012

* Figures in `/sq.ft

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2012

2017E
`17,300

7,456
6,839
`10,200

`10,200
`4,900

230
1,374
694

2,146

141

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

Dwarka Sec. 22-23

Dwarka Expressway

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT
Annual average
absorption rate in the
Dwarka Expressway 3,180
units

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

18,000
16,000
14,000

40%

12,000
10,000

52%

8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

2007

2008

Dwarka Sec. 22-23

2010

2009

Dwarka Expressway

2011

2012

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

its proximity to Dwarka


Sub-city, IGI Airport and
the proposed diplomatic
enclave in Dwarka Phase II

destination has witnessed an average absorption


of 3,180 units per annum between 2009 and 2011.
The rate of unsold inventory climbed to 31% as
on Q3 2012, however, understanding the long
term potential of this destination the developers
continued launching new projects. The
destination witnessed the launch of 7,456 units in
the rst nine months of 2012 as against 6,839 units
launched throughout 2011.

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT LOCATIONS FROM SEC.111


* By road
AIRPORT
IGI

ROAD
MG

17
km

NESAR
MA

11
mins

28
km
9
km

6
mins

13
km

OL
F CO SE RO
UR

Distance

Travel time

17
mins
29
km

8
mins

CO
LA
NNA
UGHT P

CE

primarily on account of

AD

Selected destination

Developers started taking keen interest in this


locality only in 2009. Since 2009, the Northern
Region of this belt has witnessed the launch of
17,815 residential units and 92% of these were
launched during the last thirty-three months. The
destination witnessed healthy sales primarily on
account of euphoria associated with the new
connectivity. However, the sale momentum has
subsided for the projects launched in 2012. We
believe this is just an aberration, as the

18
mins

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Major oce markets like


Golf Course Road and MG
Road are just 13 km. and 9
km. respectively from Sec.111
of Dwarka Expressway

At present, Sec 111 on the Dwaraka Expressway is


connected with the important NH-8 through the
Major Sushil Aima Marg, which also connects it
with the Urban Extension Road II (UER-II) that
goes towards the Indira Gandhi International
Airport. Major oce micro-markets like Golf
Course Road and MG Road are just 13 km. and
9 km. from Sector 111. Going forward, the under
construction 18 km. Dwarka Expressway will
provide an alternative road to the existing
congested Delhi-Gurgaon Expressway. Connect-ivity between the two cities will be enhanced
once this expressway is in place.
Dwarka Sec 22/23 is in close proximity to the
selected destination and is also an established
residential micro-market with prices averaging
at ` 10,200/sq. ft. However, the price in
Dwarka Expressway Sec 103-106, 109-113 is
around `4,900/sq. ft., which is a 52% discount.
Based on our investment rationale as discussed
above we expect prices to rise to `10,200/sq. ft.
thereby reducing the discount to 40% by 2017.

Investment
Options in Dwarka
Expressway
INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

3BHK

1,900 - 3,447

950 - 1,460

2BHK

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

9.3 - 16.9

4.7 - 7.2

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

Sector

Developer

No. of Units

Launch Date

Completion Date

Vedas

108

Raheja Builders

250

Nov-10

Dec-13

The Residency

103

The Landmark Group

500

Dec-10

Mar-14

to increase to `10,200/sq.ft.

Centrum

103

India Bulls

750

Mar-09

Mar-13

from the current levels

Aura Phase III

110

Mahindra Life Spaces

110

Apr-11

Mar-14

Price in Dwarka Expressway

of `4,900/sq.ft. - a 108% price


appreciation in 5 years

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Extension

GREATER
NOIDA

127,424 residential units

Greater Noida is a new suburb located 20 km from


Noida in Gautam Buddha Nagar district of Uttar
Pradesh. Spread over 20,000 acres, it is situated
about 40 km. south-east of New Delhi and forms a
part of the NCR. Greater Noida Industrial
Development Authority (GNIDA) is the nodal
agency for the overall development of this region.
Physical infrastructure of Greater Noida has been
crafted very meticulously by the GNIDA. Wide
roads along with service roads for all the major
arterial roads have been built. It also boasts of
India's rst 'Grand Prix' which marked its
presence on the International Motor Racing
Circuit.

Connaught Place (CBD) is a


mere 18 km. from Noida

launched since 2007

Builders allowed to
resume construction in
Noida Extension

Greater Noida is well connected with Noida and


Agra. A 25 km. six-lane Noida-Greater Noida
Expressway connects Sector 15 of Noida with the
Alpha Commercial belt of Greater Noida.
Moreover, a 165 km. Yamuna Expressway also
passes through the city providing connectivity
with Agra via Mathura. A 35 km. Metro line has
been approved by the Noida and Greater Noida
Authority that will connect new sectors of Noida,
Greater Noida, Ghaziabad and South Delhi. The
metro rail would provide connectivity between
Noida City Centre (sector 32) and Greater Noida.
Noida Extension, Noida Sectors 71, 72, 78 and 62
are some of the major nodes of this metro line.
Greater Noida is emerging as a planned industrial
region, an educational hub and also as an
aordable housing option. Honda Siel Cars,
Daewoo Motors, Yamaha Motors, Delphi
Automotive, Samsung India, LG, Wipro, Videocon
and TEVA Pharmaceuticals are some of the major
companies that have set up their base here. It
also has some of the most prestigious
engineering and management colleges like Birla
Institute of Management and Technology,
Apeejay Institute of Technology, Noida Institute of
Engineering and Technology, Noida International
University and IEC College of Engineering.
Residential micro-markets have evolved along the
Yamuna Expressway and some of the prime
residential sectors are Alpha, Beta, Chi, Delta and
Pi.
Recently, Noida Extension has emerged as an
aordable housing hub of the NCR. Though part
of Greater Noida, it is nomenclature as 'Noida
Extension' as it is in close proximity with the
Noida City Centre. This helps to dierentiate it

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT
LAUNCH TREND IN GREATER NOIDA
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

82,150

23,619
6,121

3,035

Launches

5,638

6,860

Source: Knight Frank Research

from both Noida and Greater Noida. The CBD of


Connaught Place is only 18 km. from this region.
With the upcoming metro line the accessibility of
this destination will improve. Moreover, unlike
Gurgaon, this region has ample groundwater
coupled with a continuous supply from the
Ganges. Spread over 3,635 hectares, many real
estate developers have launched huge townships
like Amrapali Group's Leisure Park, Leisure Valley,
Supertech's Eco Village-I & II, Earth
Infrastructure's Earth Sapphire Court and
Antriksh's Antriksh Forest.
As on September-2012, Greater Noida has witnessed a
total of 127,424 residential units being launched
since 2007. Of these, a total of 79,746 units have
been absorbed resulting in 37.4% remaining unsold.
However, in the year 2010 Greater Noida
witnessed the highest number of launches and
absorption owing to its connectivity with Noida
City Centre and aordable pricing of the
apartments. Recently the land row problem has
been resolved and developers have been allowed
to commence construction.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF GREATER NOIDA


Recently completed
Yamuna Expressway has

* Till September 2012

reduced the travel time to

2007 2008

Agra to less than 2 hours

2009

2010

2011

2012*
37.4%

36.3%
140,000

29.8%

No. of Units

120,000
100,000
80,000

22.2%

60,000

21.4%

40,000 18%
20,000

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

Existing Infrastructure
YAMUNA EXPRESSWAY
A 165 km. six-lane expressway connecting Greater
Noida with Agra started in August-2012. This
access controlled toll expressway is a better
alternative to NH-2 which earlier used to handle
all the Agra bound trac from the NCR. The
expressway has reduced the travel time between
Noida and Agra from 5 hours to less than 2
hours.It will relieve trac congestion on the NH-2
(which runs through the cities of Faridabad,
Ballabgarh and Palwal) and Old Grand Trunk Road
(NH-91).

Metro Rail has been


proposed for connecting
Eco Village via Sector 71

NOIDA - GREATER NOIDA


EXPRESSWAY
A 25 km. six-lane expressway providing
connectivity between the two satellite cities of
the NCR i.e. Noida and Greater Noida is
operational. It starts at Sector 15A of Noida and
ends at the Alpha commercial belt in Greater
Noida. This expressway has reduced the travel
time between the commercial centres and
residential complexes of Greater Noida with the
Delhi CBD.

Upcoming Infrastructure
FARIDABAD-NOIDA-GHAZIABAD
(FNG) EXPRESSWAY
A 56 km. expressway meant to connect FaridabadNoida-Ghaziabad had been oated way back in
1993 the Haryana government did not nd this
feasible and scrapped the idea in 1998. However,
construction has begun on a stretch of 16 km.
which falls under the jurisdiction of Noida
Authority. As on date an 8 km. stretch has been
constructed. This stretch is an important link
between Noida and Ghaziabad. Currently, the
congested NH-24 is the only link between the two
cities and once the 16 km. stretch is complete, it
will provide smooth and hassle free travel
between Noida and Ghaziabad. This road will also
provide speedy access to Greater Noida.

METRO LINE
The City Centre Metro line will be extended till Eco
Village via Sector 71. Out of the planned four
stations two will be in Noida Extension. The Metro
terminal will be near Eco Village-III, which is
around 3 km. from Noida Extension roundabout.
In addition to Noida Extension, group housing
projects are also being constructed in various
areas of Noida, especially from Sectors 74 to 79,
Sectors 112 and 119. The Metro extension will even
cater to these areas where nearly 50 housing
projects are being constructed. This would be the
rst Metro Rail connecting Noida Extension with
Delhi-NCR.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Greater Nodia has


attracted a total
industrial investment of

Employment Indicators in
Greater Noida

`100 bn. from domestic as


well as multinational
companies

EXISITING OFFICE SPACE


st ock in Greater Noida 4 mn. sq .ft
expect it to increase to 9
mn. sq.ft. by 2017

Greater Noida is emerging as one of the most


remarkable models for the industrial
infrastructure. It is regarded as the most favoured
location for industrial development owing to its
favourable government policies, huge availability
of land tracts and talented workforce. The region
has attracted a total industrial investment of
`10,000 crore from domestic as well as multinational companies. Honda Siel Cars, Daewoo
Motors, Yamaha Motors, Delphi Automotive,
Samsung India, LG, Videocon and TEVA
Pharmaceuticals are some of the major
companies that have set up their base here.
Greater Noida is emerging as an IT/ITeS hub,
mainly due to conscious measures taken by the
Greater Noida Industrial Development Authority
(GNIDA). Taking cognizance of the IT industry
growth traction, the GNIDA is oering the best of
the infrastructure including uninterrupted power
as well as water supply. The sectors in the IT
industry that have witnessed remarkable growth
in Greater Noida are IT services, software
products, IT enabled Services and e-commerce
business. Greater Noida is poised to develop as
the next major IT destination with a number of
planned or upcoming IT & Bio tech parks such as
Wegmans Industries, Amprapali Tech park, Wipro
IT Park, Globus IT Park, Habitech Tech Park and
Kalika Infotech.
MNCs have got an invigorating platform as the
government is encouraging their presence here.
World-class infrastructure coupled with investor
friendly policies have lured many MNCs to set-up
base in Greater Noida. Sectors like Alpha, Beta,
Gamma, Swarn Nagari, NRI City and Golf Link 1
have emerged as commercial business districts.
Currently Greater Noida has 4 mn. sq. ft. of oce
space of which 2.4 mn. sq.ft. is occupied. We
expect Greater Noida oce space to witness an
encouraging growth for the next ve years until
2017. While the oce stock will increase by 122%,
the occupied oce space will go up by a
spectacular 141% by 2017. Consequently the
vacancy rate will come down from the current
level of 40.5% to 35.4%. We foresee that the
employment generation happening in the service
industry will feed the growth of residential
markets in the zone.

GREATER NOIDA OFFICE


SPACE DYNAMICS
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

BeFORE 2008 2009 2010


2008

Stock
Occupied Stock

2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

80,246 residential units


launched in Noida
Extension since 2010

DESTINATION
NOIDA EXTENSION
RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF NOIDA EXTENSION
* Till September 2012

No. of Units

2010
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

Stock

launched in the year 2010

2012*

38.4%

38.6%

30.7%

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Noida Extension comprising Sectors 1, 2, 4, 16B,


16C, 16D and Knowledge Park V have emerged as
the most sought after destination. Though, Noida
Extension is a part of Greater Noida, it is known
as 'Noida Extension' on its close proximity with
the Noida City Centre. This helps to distinguish it
from both Noida and Greater Noida. It is an
upcoming region for Greater Noida situated in
close proximity to Noida. Noida Extension is only
7 km. from Noida City Centre and is adjacent to
Noida. Sectors 18, 32 or 62 in Noida are barely 515 minutes from Noida Extension. Moreover, the
CBD of Connaught Place is only 18 km. from this
region. With the upcoming metro line the
accessibility will be enhanced.

81% of these were

2011

The Yamuna Expressway, F1 Car Racing Circuit


and Noida-Greater Noida Expressway have
completely changed the picture of this region.

Sound infrastructure, aordable pricing and


proximity to Noida made this region the most
sought after destination in the NCR. Based on the
above factors, many real estate developers have
launched huge townships like Amrapali Group's
Leisure Park, Leisure Valley, Supertech's Eco
Village and Antriksh's Antriksh Forest.
Developers started taking keen interest in this
locality only in 2010. Since 2010, Noida Extension
has witnessed the launch of 80,246 residential
units and 81% of these were launched in the year
2010. The entire region has come to a standstill
due to the land acquisition problem; as a result
this region witnessed very few launches of
residential projects between 2011 and Q2 2012.
However, in August 2012, it received the approval
to continue with its construction from GNIDA.
Hence, we anticipate launches in this region to
regain its 2010 momentum.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN NOIDA EXTENSION

PRICE FORECAST

* Till September 2012

* Figures in `/sq.ft

2010

2011

2012*

2012

2017e

`11,260

64,890
`6,975
`3,200

14,890

Launches

1,271

Source: Knight Frank Research

Noida Sec. 50-52

`6,760

Noida Extension

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT
Prices in Noida Extension
to increase to ` 6,760/ sq.ft.

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

from the current levels


of `3,200/sq.ft.

12,000
10,000

40%

8,000

54%

6,000
4,000
2,000

2010

2011

Noida Sec. 50-52

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Discount Margin

Noida Extn.

Source: Knight Frank Research


The destination witnessed healthy sales in 2010
primarily due to proximity to Noida and aordable
pricing. However, the sale momentum had slowed
down during 2011 and Q2 2012 for the reason
mentioned above. With a solution to the land
acquisition problem we believe this destination
to gain traction. The rate of unsold inventory
climbed to 38% as on Q3 2012. However, taking
cognizance of the situation we believe this
destination has a huge potential to grow as a

residential hub and the unsold inventory


percentage is anticipated to come down.
Noida Sectors 50-52 are the established micromarkets of Greater Noida with prices averaging at
`6,975/sq. ft. However, the price in Noida
Extension is around `3,200/sq. ft., which is a
54% discount. We expect this discount to narrow
down to 40% by the end of 2017 resulting in
prices moving up to `6,760/sq. ft.

Investment Options in Noida Extn.


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

1,995 - 3,400

4BHK

6.4 - 10.9

1,480 - 2,100

3BHK

4.7 - 6.7

895 - 1,060

2BHK

2.9 - 3.4

410 - 580

1BHK

1.5 - 2.2

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

Sector Developer

No. of
Units

Completion
Date

Eco Village -I 1

Supertech

5,000

Apr-15

Gaur City II 16C

Gaursons

3,000

Dec-14

Terrace
Homes

Amarpali
Group

3,000

Oct-14

Eco Village
II & III

16B

Supertech

8,000

Sep-14

Source: Knight Frank Research


Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Over 40,000 acres have


identied for
constructing 'Global City'

Hidden Gem
Neemrana

in Neemrana-Behror area

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT LOCATIONS


* By road

CON

T
UGH PLAC
NA

E L HI
ED

72
km

DELHI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

93
km

55
km

AD, GURGA
RO

ON

MG

BHIWADI

117
km

106
km

Distance

Neemrana is situated in North-Eastern Rajasthan


and falls under the National Capital Region (NCR)
of Delhi. It is located close to the NH-8 which
forms a part of the Golden Quadrilateral.
Currently, there is absolutely no mass rapid
transport and as such the region has extremely
poor inter zone connectivity. The NH-8 is the only
major arterial road providing connectivity with
important regions in the NCR. The real estate
development in Neemrana is driven by the fact
that it is one of the major nodes of the Dedicated
Freight Corridor (DFC) and Delhi-Mumbai
Industrial Corridor (DMIC). Recently, the
Rajasthan government allotted 2,500 acres to the
Japanese companies to set up their operations
here. This region is known as the Japanese
Investment Zone. Moreover, the government is
also setting up an Export Promotion Industrial
Park (EPIP) in an area of more than 200 acres.
The destination is at a distance of approx. 55 km.,
72 km. and 93 km. from the prominent markets of
the NCR Bhiwadi, Manesar and MG Road,
Gurgaon respectively.

Following are the factors that make Neemrana the


most sought after investment destination:Proximity to the Golden Quadrilateral, NH-8
and the Dedicated Freight Corridor
Proximity to Delhi International Airport (106
km.) also oers good connectivity with
Neemrana. Besides, an independent airport
complex is also proposed to be developed
here.
The government has already identied and
designated land for constructing 'Global City
over 40,000 acres in the Neemrana-Behror
area. Once completed this region will have a
capacity of housing one million people. The
Cyber City, Medi-City, Knowledge City,
Entertainment City, SEZ, World Trade City and
Bio-diversity Park have also been planned
here.

.
.
.

Additionally, widening of the NH8 on this route


coupled with construction of yovers will
enhance the connectivity of Neemrana with other
industrial hubs of the NCR. Owing to the above
factors we anticipate Neemrana should benet
immensely and provide superior investment
returns over a 10 year time horizon.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

An Integrated Freight
Complex covering an area
of 392 hectares has been

Hidden Gem
Narela

planned in Narela

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT
LOCATIONS
* By road
13
km

Distance

A Metro line has been


planned under DMRC Phase
IV connecting Narela to
Jahangirpuri

DELHI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

CONNAUGHT PLACE, DELHI

5
km

10
km

MANESAR (VIA AJMER ROAD)

KUNDLI

8
km

Narela is situated in North-West Delhi and forms


the border of Delhi state with Haryana. The
'Narela Industrial Area', started developing in
early 1980s and today is one of the important
industrial complexes in Delhi. Moreover, Narela
spread over 7,464 hectares was planned as a
Sub-city by Delhi Development Authority (DDA) in
1990s, after Rohini Sub-city and Dwarka Sub-city.
Currently, there is no mass rapid transport and as
such the region has extremely poor inter zone
connectivity. The NH-1 is the only major arterial
road providing connectivity of Narela with Delhi
city centre. However, Delhi Metro Rail Corporation
(DMRC) under Phase IV has planned to extend the
existing Yellow Line (currently running between
HUDA and Jahangirpuri) up to Narela. Further,
Narela is located 10 km. from the Kundli node of
the KMP Expressway (135 km. expressway), once
completed this will provide access to the major
industrial hubs like Manesar and Palwal.
The destination is at a distance of approx. 10 km.,
30 km. and 44 km. from the prominent markets of
Kundli, Connaught Place and Delhi Airport
respectively.
Following are the factors that make Narela the
most sought after investment destination: An Integrated Freight Complex covering an area
of 392 hectares has been planned. It will
accommodate the wholesale trade, district
centre, metropolitan transport centre and ISBT.
Another major industrial area has been
proposed at Bawana accommodating 20,000
industrial plots.
A Metro line has been planned under DMRC
Phase IV. This will be an extension of the
existing Yellow Line from Jahangirpuri.
We anticipate Narela to benefit immensely based
on the above mentioned factors. We expect it to
provide a good return on investment over a 10
year time horizon.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

600 acres allotted to


Maruti Udyog by HSIDC for
their expansion plan

Hidden Gem
MANESAR
CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT
LOCATIONS

CON

L HI
48
km

DELHI IN

ER
N

IRPORT

26
km

LA

26
km

P
GHT LACE,
AU

DE

COURSE RO
LF

AD

GO

* By road

A
AT ION

Distance

A 135 km. KMP Expressway


will augment demand for
the residential real estate

Manesar is situated on NH-8, the Delhi-Jaipur


Road, in south Gurgaon. It is emerging as one of
the biggest industrial belts of the NCR. This
industrial belt comprises Gurgaons industrial
corridor, Industrial Model Town (IMT) Manesar
and Gurgaons SEZ belt. Currently the region does
not have any mass rapid transport raising
concerns regarding inter zone connectivity.
Availability of vast tracts of land, wide roads and
favourable government policies are the major
drivers for real estate developments in this
destination.

in Manesar
Manesar has tremendous opportunities to grow
as an industrial hub and the Haryana State
Industrial Development Corporation (HSIDC) is
not leaving any stone unturned in making it a
destination worth reckoning. Industrial Model
Town (IMT) a Haryana government initiative, has

given a fillip to commercialization in Manesar. It


has been divided into four phases. In Phase I,
HSIDC developed 1,750 acres of land; the
development of Phase II and Phase IV are in
progress. HSIDC has allotted around 600 acres in
Phase III to Maruti Udyog for their expansion
project.
Renowned manufacturing companies like Maruti,
Suzuki, Hero Motors, Honda, Toyota and
Samsung Telecommunications are already
present in Manesar. Moreover, Manesar has
become the most preferred destination for many
leading companies including major IT/ITeS
companies. This, coupled with the Reliance SEZ
will lead to huge employment generation thereby
leading to a huge demand for residential real
estate. A 135 km. Kundli-Manesar-Palwal (KMP)
Expressway will further augment demand for the
residential real estate in Manesar.
However, distance to the CBD continues to remain
a major concern along with the slow development
of arterial roads. Further, the bottleneck at the
second toll plaza at Kherki Dhaula impacts the
travel time to and from Manesar. Uninterrupted
power supply continues to be a challenge and
with the irregular electric supply, companies are
forced to invest hugely in power back-up
arrangements.
Time to travel to and from Manesar will reduce
considerably post commencement of the KMP and
Dwarka Expressway. All these elements are
expected to spur investments, primarily in the
automobile and ancillaries sector in Manesar.
Hence, we anticipate Manesar to emerge as the
most sought after destination providing a good
return on investment over a 10 year time horizon.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Mumbai

The Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is spread over an area of 4,355


sq. km. that comprises 468 sq. km. of Mumbai city along with certain
parts of Thane and Raigad district, which constitute the remaining 3,887
sq. km. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority
(MMRDA) is the apex body for the planning and development of the MMR.
The region has been witnessing a high population growth as high as 32%
during the last two decades. Although the growth rate is lower in
comparison to 39% witnessed during 1981-1991, the population base
increased significantly to 23.51 mn. in 2011.

MUMBAI METROPOLITAN REGION POPULATION


Population in Millions

1991

13.45

3.38%

Population

2001

17.81

2.85%

2011

23.51

2.82%

Average Annual Growth

Source: Census 2011, Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

MUMBAI MAP

AIROLI

VASHI

KHARGHAR

PRABHADEVI

WADALA

BELAPUR
Proposed
International Airport

ULWE

Under Construction Rail Line


Under Construction Metro Rail

10000

Under Construction Monorail


RANJANPADA

20000
4000
40000

80000

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

The MMR is spread over an


area of

4,355

sq.km.

Market
Overview

and has a population of

23.51

mn.

The residential pockets of


the island city like Cue
Parade, Napean sea Road

The real estate market of the MMR can be divided


in to four zones i.e. Island City, Western Zone,
Central Zone and Navi Mumbai.
ZONE

MAJOR RESIDENTIAL
DESTINATIONS

Island city

Colaba, Cue Parade, Tardeo,


Mahalakshmi, Parel, Worli, Dadar,
Mahim, Sewri

Western zone

Bandra, Andheri, Goregaon,


Malad, Borivali, Dahisar, Mira
Road, Bhayandar, Vasai, Virar

Central zone

Wadala, Chembur, Ghatkopar, Powai,


Bhandup, Mulund, Thane, Kalyan,
Dombivili, Kasara, Ambernath,
Karjat

Navi Mumbai

Airoli, Vashi, Nerul, CBD Belapur,


Panvel, Taloja, Ulwe

and Worli are amongst


the costliest in the
country
With the Arabian Sea on
three sides and lack of
land availability there is
limited scope for
horizontal expansion in
the island city, and the
only way for large scale
real estate development is
by going vertical
In the Western zone, while
employment and social
infrastructure are the
drivers until Malad,
locations further north
are driven by connectivity,
primarily by suburban train
network up to Virar

The island city is the southern section of Mumbai


and also referred to as old city. The zone houses
the Central Business district (CBD) comprising
Nariman Point, Colaba, Cue Parade, Fort and
Ballard Estate. Mumbai is the business capital of
the country and as such the CBD is home to a
large number of corporate headquarters. The
Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) is the oldest stock
exchange in Asia and some of the biggest Indian
companies like Reliance Industries, Tata
Consultancy Services, State Bank of India and
Larsen & Toubro operate from their headquarters
here. Worli, Prabhadevi and Lower Parel are other
major oce locations. The residential pockets of
this zone like Cue Parade, Napeansea Road and
Worli are amongst the costliest in the country.
With the Arabian Sea on three sides and lack of
land availability there is limited scope for
horizontal expansion in this zone, and the only
way for large scale real estate development is by
going vertical.

the Andheri Kurla Road and some alongside


Western Expressway up to Malad. With respect to
residential development, Bandra and Juhu are the
most sought after locations and hence command
the highest property prices in this zone. The
western zone has a vibrant social infrastructure
with the presence of quality retail, education,
entertainment and healthcare options. The
property prices decline as one goes northwards
from the city centre. While employment and social
infrastructure are the drivers until Malad,
locations further north are driven by connectivity
primarily by suburban train network up to Virar.
The central zone covers the northern region
stretching from Sion to Karjat. We have
witnessed a phenomenon of shift in oce space
developments, north of the MMR and as a result
high quantum of oce buildings have come up
on the LBS road, Powai and Thane localities of
this zone. The stretch up to Thane has decent
social and physical infrastructure, and the
presence of several organized retail options on
the LBS road in the last ve years has added to
the appeal of the residential developments in the
region. The connectivity in this zone is mainly
through the Eastern Expressway and the
suburban train network. From real estate
development perspective the most critical factor
beyond Thane is the connectivity primarily

RESIDENTIAL LAUNCH TREND


IN MMR
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

112,543

72,129
69,150

The geography beginning from Bandra towards


the north in the MMR is identied as the western
zone. It is home to the planned commercial hub
of the Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC), that has the
countrys largest stock exchange the - National
Stock Exchange (NSE) and important oces like
American Consulate and British High
Commission. Other signicant oce stock is on

44,483
37,127

Launches

41,950

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF MMR


The momentum in MMR
residential market is down
from

* Till September 2012

1,12,543 units

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

launched in 2010 to just

2012 (Until September)

In the Central zone, while


distant suburbs beyond

24%

18%

No. of Units

41,950 units in

2012*

400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000

Stock

14%
8%

8%

6%

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

Thane provide aordable


housing options, they are
not self-sustainable with
respect to employment
opportunities

Developed as the planned


satellite city of Mumbai,
Navi Mumbai is emerging as
a self-sustained real
estate market on account
of the presence of
employment opportunities
primarily in the IT/ITeS
sector

39% of the residential


supply is concentrated in
the Western zone

through suburban train network. This is because


while these distant suburbs provide aordable
housing options, they are not self-sustainable
with respect to employment opportunities.
Developed as the planned satellite city of
Mumbai, Navi Mumbai is emerging as a self
-sustained real estate market on account of the
presence of employment opportunities primarily
in the IT/ITeS sector. While CBD Belapur has been
planned as the oce development hub, other
signicant oce micro-markets are Vashi and the
Thane-Belapur Road. The zone has several options
for quality education and retail with Vashi being the
most prominent micro-market commanding the
highest property price in the zone. The
connectivity is mainly through the suburban rail
network that also connects the zone with the
island city and the central zone. Besides, the road
connectivity is supported by the Thane-Belapur
Road and the Palm Beach Road.

ZONE-WISE SPLIT OF UNDER


CONSTRUCTION UNITS
20%

5%

36%

39%
Island city
Western zone

Central zone
Navi Mumbai

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

The Western Expressway


and the Eastern
Expressway are the
arteries of road

Real Estate Drivers


Employment

Infrastructure Development

connectivity in Mumbai

Service Sectors

Road Network

Rail Network

BFSI

Western Expressway

Suburban Train network

Eastern Expressway

Upcoming Metro &


Monorail network

IT/ITeS

Air Network
Upcoming International
Airport

Upcoming Eastern
Freeway

Infrastructure Development
EXISTING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK
ROAD NETWORK

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

Western Expressway

25 km.

Extending from Bandra to Dahisar, this 8 lane arterial road has been
enhancing the south-north connectivity in the city instrumental in the city

Eastern Expressway

24 km.

This 6 lane arterial road between Sion and Thane provides the southnorth connectivity

Sion Panvel Highway

25 km.

This 8 lane road has been instrumental in providing the west-east


connectivity between Mumbai and Navi Mumbai

The suburban train


network is considered as

EXISTING SUBURBAN RAIL NETWORK

the lifeline of the city and


has a signicant bearing
on the real estate
development of the

SUBURBAN TRAIN
NETWORK

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

Churchgate - Virar

60 km.

Crucial for south-north connectivity in the western zone, separate


lines for suburban trains provide excellent connectivity

CST - Kalyan Kasara/Khopoli

121 km./115 km.

This suburban rail network provides excellent south-north


connectivity of the city with the central suburbs

Thane - Panvel

49 km.

This suburban rail network provides connectivity with the satellite city
of Navi Mumbai

connected regions

UPCOMING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK


PROJECT

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Mumbai Trans
Harbour Link
(MTHL)

22 km.

This `96,300mn. six-lane sea bridge will be


the most signicant link between Mumbai
and Navi Mumbai at Sewri and Nhava
respectively. The nancial feasibility has
been concluded. The authority has shortlisted
contractors so that the work can be
commissioned by 2013.

Planned

Beyond 2017

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PROJECT

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Eastern Freeway

16.8 km.

This project will enhance the connectivity of


South Mumbai with eastern suburbs and
serve as an important link road running
parallel to the Eastern Expressway. This
freeway will begin at CST and go upto Anik
and further to Panjarpol and Ghatkopar. The
real estate markets of Chembur and Wadala
will be the biggest beneficiaries on account
of this enhanced connectivity with the
Central Business District (CBD) of South
Mumbai

Under
Construction

2013

Multi-modal
Corridor (Virar Alibaug)

140 km.

This `100 bn. project is basically broadening


of the existing route of Virar-BhiwandiPanvel-Pen-Alibaug. This corridor will
primarily enhance the connectivity at the
periphery of the MMR and also with other
cities by serving as a link to important
national highways that link Mumbai to cities
like Ahmedabad, Delhi, Chennai and
Bangalore. The land survey work is in
progress and Phase I Virar-Chirner (Near
JNPT) is expected to be complete by 2017

Planned

Beyond 2017

The upcoming metro rail


network will address the
much needed west-east
connectivity in the city
through a mass rapid
transport system

UPCOMING SUBURBAN RAIL NETWORK


PROJECT

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Metro Rail Phase


I (Versova AndheriGhatkopar)

11.40 km.

The much needed west-east connectivity


through the MRTS will be addressed. This
link will enhance the connectivity with office
locations of Andheri like MIDC and SEEPZ.
Construction work is in the advanced stage
on this phase with 12 stations on route.

Under
construction

2013

Metro Rail PhaseII (Charkop BandraMankhurd)

31.90 km.

The west-east connectivity through this MRTS


will benefit residential pockets like Charkop
and Oshiwara in the western suburbs and
Chembur and Mankhurd in the central
suburbs

Planned

Beyond 2017

Monorail Phase I
(WadalaChembur)

8.2 km.

Under
Construction

2013

Planned

2016-17

Under
Construction

2016

Under
construction

2014

Suburban rail network in


Navi Mumbai will be
extended on the 32 km.
stretch from Nerul to
Uran

Monorail Phase II
(Jacob CircleWadala)

Navi Mumbai
suburban train
network
extension (NerulSeawood-Uran)

Navi Mumbai
Metro Rail Phase
I (Belapur to
Pendhar)

12 km.

32 km.

11.10 km.

This route will have 7 stations on route and


provide connectivity with locations like
Bhakti Park, BPCL colony and Chembur
With 11 stations on route this project will
enhance connectivity in otherwise congested
locations of Lower Parel and Dadar. Although
the financial feasibility is completed, the
project work will be commissioned only after
a successful run of the Phase I
Currently the region is connected through the
JNPT road. However, this suburban train
network will enhance connectivity and prove
beneficial to residential markets like Ulwe.
The construction work is in progress from the
Seawood end and will extend up to Uran
The 11 elevated stations enroute this metro
rail network will enhance connectivity within
the Navi Mumbai zone. Residential pockets
of Kharghar will realise the maximum benefit
on account of the enhanced connectivity with
the commercial hubs of CBD Belapur and
Taloja

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PROJECT

DISTANCE

OBSERVATIONS

STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Navi Mumbai
Metro Rail Phase
II & III (Pendhar
to Khandeshwar)

10.35 km.

This section with 7 stations will link Phase I


at Pendhar and stretch upto Khandeshwar.
On completion of this phase, the residential
micro-markets of Kalamboli, Kamothe and
Khandeshwar will benefit by the connectivity
with CBD Belapur.

Planned

2016

Western Elevated
Rail Corridor
(Oval Maidan Virar)

62.27 km.

This `210 bn. two track elevated corridor will


enhance the connectivity on the Churchgate Virar section in the western zone. While
being a mass rapid commute option this
train corridor will also provide comfortable
travelling by employing air conditioned train
service. This project will immensely benefit
the residential markets of peripheral western
suburbs beyond Borivali by enhancing their
connectivity with the CBD of South Mumbai
and cross section of the Mumbai Metro
Phase I. The Rail Board has approved the
project and is currently at the bidding stage
which is expected to be complete by early
2013.

Bidding
stage

Beyond 2017

Western zone contributes

33%

of the occupied

office space in the city

UPCOMING MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT

Besides BFSI and IT/ITeS


industries as dominant
office space occupiers, the
city is home to corporate
headquarters of several
Indian and multinational
companies

PROJECT

OBSERVATIONS

STATUS

EXPECTED COMPLETION

Navi Mumbai
International
Airport

In wake of the air travel demand from MMR


increasing from 29 mn. passengers in 201011 to an estimated 119 mn. in 2030-31, this
second international airport is being
developed in Navi Mumbai. While the
residential market has witnessed an
enormous growth in anticipation of this
project, it will provide a major boost to the
economy of the Navi Mumbai region with a
host of commercial activities that will come
up. The project has secured the
Environmental Clearance in November 2010.
Phase I will have an annual capacity of 10
mn. passengers

Planned

Phase I by 2015

Employment Indicators in MMR


Mumbai is the financial capital of the country and
as such the high pace of employment generation
here will drive the growth of the residential
markets. BFSI and IT/ITeS are the most dominant
industries and being the business capital it is
also home to the corporate headquarters of
several companies.
The current situation indicates that the western
zone with 33% of the total occupied office space
in the city has the highest density of office space
implying a large proportion of employment
opportunities emanating in the zone. The central
zone contributes 30% of the employment. The

OFFICE SPACE BREAK-UP


16%

30%

21%

33%
Island city

Western zone

Central zone

Navi Mumbai

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

The occupied oce stock


in the city will increase by

63%

in the next 5 years

impact of the global nancial crisis on the


employment scenario still prevails and therefore
the MMR oce market is witnessing a vacancy of
15%. However, we estimate that this vacancy will
decline to 9% by 2017 mainly on account of
improved business scenario and muted oce
supply. We estimate that the occupied oce
space in the city will go up by 63% between 2011
2017. This growth in eect will drive the
residential markets in the city.

MMR OFFICE
SPACE DYNAMICS

140
120
100
80
60
40
20

2008 2009 2010

2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Stock
Occupied Stock

Statutory levies in the city


increase the cost of
buying property by as much
as

10%

STATUTORY COSTS
AND MARKET NORMS
STATUTORY COSTS

The property market


norms in the city make it
an investor friendly
market

COST

DETAILS

Stamp Duty

5% (Levied on higher of agreement value or ready reckoner rate)

Registration

1% (up to a Maximum of `30,000)

Value Added Tax (VAT)

1% (on agreement value)

Service Tax (on under


construction property)

3% (on agreement value)

MARKET NORMS
NORM

DETAILS

Time line for property


registration

Any time until possession

Re-sale before
possession

Allowed

Transfer charges payable


to builder

0.5% of Base Selling Rate

Loading (as % of carpet)

55% - 80%
(Developers market the property at 55% loading on usable carpet, which includes
free of FSI and non-live-able areas like ower bed, drying area, etc. Implying an
eective loading of 55-80%.)

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

The city's real estate


market is growing in the
north-east direction

Bandra Kurla Complex


(BKC), Lower Parel and
Worli continue to be
preferred locations for
the BFSI and consulting
companies

Running parallel to the


Eastern Expressway, the
under construction
Eastern Freeway project
will boost the
connectivity of the real
estate markets in the
island city and central
zone

PREFERRED
ZONES IN
MMR
Mumbai has gained its fair share of glory by
being the nancial capital of the country. The
dominance of the city in the business landscape
of the country has been driving the real estate
development. We expect this trend to continue in
the foreseeable future. However, we do not expect
all residential markets to reap the benets on the
same scale. The city is surrounded by the Arabian
Sea on three sides and as such land is extremely
scarce in the Mumbai city limits. Hence, the
region will grow towards the north and the
eastern territory, predominantly Navi Mumbai.
However, the magnitude of growth will vary
across these emerging markets depending on
factors like employment opportunities,
infrastructure development and connectivity. We
have factored in these dynamics in selecting the
investment destinations.
As a result of this thought process, we expect
Navi Mumbai zone and the Central zone to be the
biggest beneciaries in the next ve years. Navi
Mumbai region is primarily a hub for the IT/ITeS
industry and we estimate this momentum to
accelerate in the next ve years. This estimate is
based on the fact that it is a planned city and
there is visibility on the development of the
infrastructure projects. Relatively lower oce
rentals and large oce space options are factors
that make this zone a preferred place for the IT
industry. Strategic location on the Mumbai Pune
Expressway, that connects the Hinjewadi IT belt of
Pune, will be benecial to Navi Mumbai. Going
forward, the development of MMR's second
international airport in this zone will only
augment the cause.
Our other promising region in the MMR is the
central zone. The relocation of oce occupiers
towards the north is a trend that we expect to
continue and the central zone is expected to
emerge as a signicant beneciary of this. While
oce markets like the Bandra Kurla Complex
(BKC), Lower Parel and Worli continue to be
preferred locations for the BFSI and consulting
companies, oce developments on the LBS Road
will further fuel the growth of the residential
market in this zone. On the connectivity front,
while the Eastern Expressway has been the
lifeline of road connectivity in this zone, the
under construction Eastern Freeway project will
be a great supplement. Its connectivity with the

promising IT/ITeS hub of Navi Mumbai is in place


through the Vashi bridge and the Airoli bridge
and this will be enhanced by the Mumbai Trans
Harbour Link (MTHL).With respect to the
connectivity with the western zone, the upcoming
Mumbai Metro and the Mono Rail project will be a
shot in the armour for this zone.

NAVI
MUMBAI
Developed as a planned satellite city of Mumbai,
Navi Mumbai has emerged as a self-sustaining
zone within the MMR. This zone has the presence
of industrial activity in the regions of Mahape and
Taloja. However, the last decade has witnessed a
stellar growth of the IT/ITeS industry in this zone.
Navi Mumbai provides a better quality of living at a
relatively lower price than Mumbai and hence
20% of the under construction residential
property in the MMR is contributed by this zone.
City and Industrial Development Corporation
(CIDCO) is the development body for the zone
entrusted by the state to carry out the planned
development. Besides the government's land
holding, CIDCO acquires land from farmers and
other private land owners and then auctions it as
per its city's development plan. The Navi Mumbai
zone has witnessed high growth of residential
development in the last ve years. Since 2007,
87,055 residential units have been launched
here, of which almost 65,403 units have been
absorbed. However, the consumer appetite was
hit with the soaring property prices putting a dent
on aordability since 2010. The fallout of high

RESIDENTIAL LAUNCH
TREND IN NAVI MUMBAI
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

28,247

20,220

14,011
9,585
7,141

Launches

7,850

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

CENTRAL AND NAVI MUMBAI ZONE MAP


AIROLI

POWAI

ANDHERI

JUHU

BANDRA
KHARGHAR
DADAR

BELAPUR
PANVEL
Proposed
International Airport

Airport
Major Roads
FORT

Under construction Monorail


Proposed Monorail
Under construction Metro Rail
Proposed Metro Rail
JNPT

COLABA

Proposed MTHL
Railway Line
Under Construction Rail Line
Benchmark location

URAN

Top destination
Employment Hubs

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF NAVI MUMBAI

65,403 units out of

* Till September 2012

the 87,055 residential units

2007 2008

launched in Navi Mumbai

2009

2010

2011

2012*
25%

since 2007 are already sold


21%

No. of Units

11%
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

6%
4%
3%

Cumulative Supply

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

property price and interest rate was an increase in


the unsold inventory to 25% as on Q3 2012.
Taking cognizance, a large number of developers
have exercised restrain on launching new
projects in 2012.

Real Estate Drivers


Thane-Belapur Road and
Palm Beach Road are the
arteries of road

Employment

Infrastructure Development

connectivity in Navi
Mumbai

IT/ITeS
Manufacturing

Road Network

Rail Network

Air Network

Thane-Belapur Road

Suburban train network

Upcoming International
Airport

Palm Beach Road

Upcoming Metro
rail network

Existing Infrastructure
THANE-BELAPUR ROAD
The 20 km. Thane-Belapur Road is the most
important road link in the zone providing both the
intra-zone as well as inter-zone connectivity with
Navi Mumbai. Towards the north it begins at

Thane and towards the south it connects with


CBD Belapur. Going further this road connects
with the Mumbai-Pune expressway that connects
the MMR with Pune. The importance of this road
can be gauged by the fact that major oce space
locations like Airoli, Rabale, Turbhe, Jui Nagar
and CBD Belapur are linked on this road.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Vashi Bridge and Airoli


Bridge provide the inter
zone connectivity to Navi
Mumbai

Mindspace IT SEZ, the 4 mn.sq.ft. oce


development of Airoli is situated on this road. The
other prominent oce developments on the road
are Reliance Corporate Park and Dhirubhai
Ambani Knowledge City.

Upcoming
Infrastructure

PALM BEACH ROAD


The Palm Beach Road runs alongside the
mangroves on the western coast of this zone.
Stretching from Vashi to Belapur this stretch is
widely referred to as the Marine Drive of Navi
Mumbai and boasts of the most expensive
properties in the zone. It is a supplementary link
to the Thane-Belapur Road and connects
residential markets like Vashi, Sanpada, Nerul
and Belapur. The road is developing as a hub for
organized retail developments.

VASHI BRIDGE
The 6-lane Vashi Bridge also referred to as the
Sion- Panvel Expressway is a major inter-zone
link. Providing East-West connectivity within the
MMR, this road connects Navi Mumbai zone at
Vashi with the central zone at Mankhurd. At
present this link is the rst entry point and also
the shortest road network from the island city
zone to the Navi Mumbai zone.

AIROLI BRIDGE
The Airoli Bridge serves as the inter-zone
connector by connecting the Navi Mumbai zone
with the central zone. It links the Eastern
expressway at Mulund in the Central zone with
the Thane-Belapur Road at Airoli in the Navi
Mumbai zone.

SUBURBAN TRAIN NETWORK


The zone has a decent inter and intra zone
connectivity by the suburban rail network. The
suburban train network connects the zone with
island city i.e. the CBD locations of Nariman
Point, Fort and Colaba and also the central zone
in Thane. Running parallel to the crucial ThaneBelapur Road it connects the major oce space
locations like Airoli, Rabale, Turbhe, Jui Nagar
and CBD Belapur.

NAVI MUMBAI METRO NETWORK


Of the six planned metro corridors in the zone
that would eventually cover a length of 120 km.,
only one i.e. Belapur-Taloja-Khandeshwar
corridor, encompassing 21.45 km., is worth
considering at this point of time. This corridor will
be developed in three phases and once
completed it will improve the connectivity within
the zone, which currently lacks mass rapid
transport system on this route. It will connect the
residential micro-markets of Kharghar,
Khandeshwar and Kalamboli with the
employment centre of CBD Belapur. The metro rail
network is considered to be a convenient form of
mass rapid transport system. There is a visibility
on the progress of the metro rail in the Navi
Mumbai Zone. The pace of development is
encouraging and we expect that the Phase I will
be completed by early 2014.

SUBURBAN TRAIN NETWORK


The suburban train network in the zone is fairly
decent on account of the connectivity with the
central zone at Thane and the island city up to
Mumbai CST. However, the southern stretch from
Ulwe to Uran lacked connectivity. It was
connected only by the JNPT road. However, with
the under construction 27 km. Nerul-SeawoodUran line this stretch will witness signicant
improvement in connectivity. The network is
expected to be ready by 2016. Widely referred to
as the lifeline of Mumbai, the train network in the
entire MMR is very crucial and to a great extent
inuences the growth of real estate development
in the network.

MUMBAI TRANS HARBOUR LINK


(MTHL)
The MTHL project has the potential to become a
game changer in the real estate market. It will
connect the Navi Mumbai zone with the Island
city zone at Sewri and Nhava respectively,
thereby reducing the travel time between these
zones signicantly. The southern stretch from
Ulwe to Uran will be the biggest beneciaries on
account of their connectivity with the CBD

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

The increase of air


passenger trac from the
current 29 mn. passengers

locations of Nariman Point, Fort, and Colaba. The


nancial feasibility has been concluded. The
authority has shortlisted contractors so that
the work can be commissioned by 2013.

to 119 mn. in 2030-31 will be


supported by the city's
second international
airport coming up in Navi
Mumbai

NAVI MUMBAI INTERNATIONAL


AIRPORT (NMIA)
Air trac in the MMR is expected to increasing
from 29 mn. passengers in 2010-11 to an

As industrial land gives

estimated 119 mn. in 2030-31, which cannot be


handled by the existing airport in the western
zone. Paucity of land for further expansion in the
existing airport has paved way for the second
international airport of MMR that will come up in
the Navi Mumbai zone. This upcoming
international airport, Environmental Clearance for
which has already been secured, is expected to
witness its Phase I to be operational by 2015.
Besides providing a boost to the economy of Navi
Mumbai zone with a host of commercial activities
in the allied industry, it will increase the
attractiveness of oce and residential properties
in the zone.

Employment Indicators in
Navi Mumbai

way to more lucrative


oce developments,
IT/ITeS industry will
dominate the economic
landscape of Navi Mumbai

The occupied oce stock

105%

the next 5 years

go up by a stellar 105% by 2017 as the vacancy


rate will come down from the current level of 24%
to 6%. We anticipate that the employment
generation happening in the service industry will
feed the growth of residential markets in the
zone.

NAVI MUMBAI OFFICE


SPACE DYNAMICS

30

in Navi Mumbai will


increase by

The zone has the presence of manufacturing


activity in the state owned industrial estates.
MIDC areas in Mahape along the Thane- Belapur
Road and Taloja have the presence of several
small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Taloja has
the presence of companies like Exide Batteries,
Asian Paints and Asahi Glass. However, with the
growth of the city, the industrial land is giving
way to more economically feasible, commercial
oce and residential development. In the
foreseeable future we expect the service industry
primarily IT/ITeS to dominate the economic
landscape of the zone.

in

Within the zone, most of the employment


generation is on the 20 km. stretch of the ThaneBelapur road. Locations like Airoli, Rabale,
Mahape towards the north and Vashi, Turbhe, Jui
Nagar and Belapur towards the south are
promising oce space locations where ample
employment opportunities are available.
Currently the zone has 18 mn.sq.ft. oce space of
which about 13.58 mn.sq.ft. is occupied. We
expect an encouraging growth in the
development of oce space for the next ve
years until 2017. While the oce space stock will
increase by 80%, the occupied oce space will

25
20
15
10
5

2008 2009 2010

Stock
Occupied Stock

2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Of the 6,6 06 residential


units launched in Ulwe
since 2009,

4,805 units

are already sold

DESTINATION
ULWE
RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF ULWE
* Till September 2012

2009

2010

2011

2012*
27%

23%

7,000

No. of Units

6,000
5,000

12%

4,000
3,000
2,000

5%

1,000

Cumulative Supply

At present, lack of mass


rapid connectivity is a
concern. However, the
under construction
suburaban rail network
will address it by

2015

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Ulwe is a residential market located to the south


of the Panvel creek. CIDCO, the planning authority
of Navi Mumbai, has acquired land from the
villagers and other private land owners and is
developing this location as per its city
development plan. Hence, it is not yet an
established residential destination. Developers
started taking keen interest in this locality only in
2009. Since 2009, Ulwe has witnessed a launch
of 6,606 residential units and almost 83% of these
were launched between 2010 and 2011. Due to the
initial euphoria associated with the investor
community, the projects also witnessed healthy
sales. However, the rate of sale has subsided now

on account of low end user interest, because of


lack of mass rapid transport connectivity. The rate
of unsold inventory climbed to 27% as on Q3
2012 and taking cognizance of the state of
market, the developers have reduced the new
launches signicantly.
At present, Ulwe is connected with the important
Thane-Belapur Road through the Uran Road,
which also connects it with the JNPT Road that
goes towards the Jawaharlal Nehru Port (Nhava
Sheva).CBD Belapur, the CIDCO notied oce
micro-market, is just 7 km. from Ulwe enroute this
Uran Road. Besides, CBD Belapur, ve other

RESIDENTIAL LAUNCHES IN ULWE ULWE PRICE FORECAST


* Figures in `/sq.ft

* Till September 2012


2009

2010

2011

2012*

2012

2017E
`15,802

2,675
`10,000

2,256

`9,800
`4,000

230

700

Vashi

130

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

Ulwe

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

ULWE PRICE FORECAST


Dearth of social

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

infrastructure is a
concern. However,
planned development will

18,000

address the same in the


foreseeable future

16,000
14,000

38%

12,000
10,000

60%

8,000
Ulwe will benefit on
account of the corollary
commercial acivity arising
from the upcoming

6,000
4,000
2,000

international airport and


the SEZ land

2009
Vashi

Ulwe

2010

2011

2012

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

The discount factor of


residential capital values
in Ulwe in comparison to
Vashi will reduce to 38% by
2017

prominent office locations within the zone are at


a maximum distance of just 22 km. Going
forward, the under construction 27 km. NerulSeawood-Uran rail line will connect Ulwe with the
suburban rail network. This will happen through a
railway station called Bamandongri which is
expected to be operational by 2015. Once this
connectivity is in place, Ulwe will be connected
with all these major office markets though the
mass rapid transport system.
The planning of this destination is undertaken by
CIDCO and hence although there is a dearth of
social infrastructure at present, the same will be
addressed through the auction of earmarked
plots for hospitals, schools and other real estate
developments. Proximity to the Navi Mumbai
International Airport (NMIA) will help Ulwe on
account of the corollary commercial activities.
Towards the south of the international airport was

the planned Navi Mumbai Special Economic Zone


(NMSEZ). Although plans for the SEZ have been
shelved, we expect large scale commercial
developments to come up on this land parcel that
will immensely benefit Ulwe. Navi Mumbai Zone
has emerged as a self-sustaining zone; however,
the connectivity with the island through the
proposed Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL) will
increase the attractiveness of this destination.
Once completed, the MTHL will be the most
significant link between island city zone and Navi
Mumbai in Sewri and Nhava respectively.
At present, Vashi is the established residential
micro-market in the zone with prices averaging at
`10,000/sq.ft. However, the price in Ulwe is
around `4,000/sq.ft., which is a 60% discount.
Based on our investment rationale as discussed
above we expect this discount to narrow down to
38% by 2017.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT LOCATIONS


Ulwe has access to the
zone's

* By road

major oce

MAHAPE

AIROLI

TURBHE

16
km

markets within a distance

11
km

of 22 km.
22
km

7
km

15
km

18
km

RABALE

CB
D BELAPUR

VASHI

Distance

The oce market of CBD


Belapur is at a distance of
just

7 km.

Investment Options in Ulwe


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

1600 - 1850

Ulwe residential property


is forecasted to
appreciate by

3BHK

6.9 - 8.7

No. of Launch Completion


Units Date
Date

Vighnaharta Shree
Complex
Siddhivinayak 126

Sep-11 Mar-14

880 - 1224

2BHK

3.6 - 5.8

Palacio

Platinum
Group

122

Jan-11

500 - 700

1BHK

2.0 - 2.9

Neelsiddhi
Joya

Neelsidhi
Group

120

Feb-12 Dec-13

Swaraj
Kingston

Swaraj
Builders

164

Dec-10 Jul-14

145%

over the next 5 years

Developer

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Nov-13

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Of the 3,518 residential


units launched in Chembur
since 2007,

2,625

DESTINATION
CHEMBUR

units

are sold

CHEMBUR RESIDENTIAL MARKET


* Till September 2012

2007

2008 2009

2010

2011

2012*

24%

25%

19%

No. of Units

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500

3%

0%

Cumulative Supply

On account of its
startegic location in the
MMR, overall growth of
employment in the city will

4%

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Chembur is a residential destination in the central


zone of the MMR. The stretch towards the south of
Chembur railway station up to Collectors Colony
is the most sought after residential catchment.
Going further south of the Collectors Colony, the
micro-market has the presence of industrial
activity notable amongst which is Rashtriya
Chemicals and Fertilizers and Bharat Petroleum
Renery. The Eastern Expressway is the most
signicant project that connects the region with
island city zone and other regions of the central
zone.

Since 2007, Chembur has witnessed the launch


of 3,518 residential units, out of which almost
75% or 2,625 units have been sold. 2010 was an
exceptionally good period for the residential
property market for this destination. However,
due to the slowdown in the overall Mumbai
market, the inventory level in Chembur climbed
up to 25% in Q3 2012. Taking cue from the
changed consumer appetite, many developers
have refrained from launching new projects this
year.

drive the residential


market of Chembur

CHEMBUR RESIDENTIAL LAUNCHES CHEMBUR PRICE FORECAST


* Figures in `/sq.ft

* Till September 2012


2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2012

2017E
`55,459

1,601
`36,000

`27,000
`12,000

845

360

377
210

Launches

125

Source: Knight Frank Research

Prabhadevi

Chembur

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

CHEMBUR PRICE FORECAST


The Eastern Freeway
project and the Santacruz
Chembur Link Road will
signicantly enhance the
connectivity of Chembur
with island city and
western zone respectively

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

60,000
54,000
48,000

51%

42,000
36,000
30,000

67%

24,000
18,000
12,000
6,000

2007
Prabhadevi

2008
Chembur

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

The Chembur-Wadala phase


of monorail project is in
an advanced stage of
construction and is
expected to be
operational by early 2013

Being strategically located within the central


zone, Chembur is not only connected with the
major oce markets of the central zone but also
the island city zone, western zone and Navi
Mumbai zone. Hence, the overall growth of
employment in the MMR will feed the residential
market of this destination. Due to its proximity to
the revered oce market of the Bandra Kurla
Complex (BKC) and increasing concentration of
oce developments in the central zone, we
expect the attractiveness of residential property
in this destination to go up in future. At present,
the destination has connectivity through the
Eastern Expressway, which connects it with the
prominent oce space locations in the central
zone. Besides, the mass rapid connectivity is
provided by the suburban rail network that
connects it with the CBD locations of Fort and
Nariman Point through Mumbai CST.
Going forward, scale of upcoming infrastructure
projects will signicantly boost the connectivity
of Chembur in the foreseeable future. The Eastern
Freeway Project is one important project that will
link Chembur with the CBD of South Mumbai. This
link, running parallel to the Eastern Expressway,

is in advanced stages of construction and shall


be operational by H2 2013.
The Santacruz Chembur Link Road is another
pivotal infrastructure project that will connect
Chembur with the western zone. This 6.45 km.
road will start at Amar Mahal Junction in Chembur
and end up to Santacruz East thereby becoming a
connecting link between the Eastern Expressway
and the Western Expressway. This link will
signicantly reduce the travel time from Chembur
to the western zone when it is ready in 2013.
Connectivity through a mass rapid transport
system has a particularly high bearing on the
growth of real estate development in the MMR.
The upcoming 20.2 km. Chembur Wadala- Jacob
Circle monorail project is the rst monorail
project in the MMR. Phase I beginning from
Chembur and terminating at Wadala is in
advanced stages of construction and expected to
be open to public by early 2013. Phase II will
connect Chembur with Jacob Circle in the island
city zone via Wadala. This project will directly link
Chembur with the oce market of Lower Parel.
The Metro Rail Phase II (Charkop - BandraMankhurd) will further enhance the connectivity

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Limited land availability


will limit the scope of new
construction in Chembur

At present, Prabhadevi is an established


residential market commanding an average price
of `36,000/sq.ft. At an average of `12,000/sq.ft.
Chembur residential property sells at a 67%
discount. Based on our investment rationale
discussed above, we forecast this discount to
narrow down to 51% by 2017.

of Chembur with the western zone. Work has been


awarded to the contractor but is lagging behind
schedule. While the project is unlikely to be
complete in our forecast horizon of ve years, it
will have a positive impact on prices during this
period.

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT LOCATIONS

AN
D

RLA COMP
KU
L

10
km

7
km

of BKC and Lower Parel are

VASHI

KURLA
RIRO
HE

NA

AD

Prominent oce markets

C)
(BK
EX

BAN
DR

* By road

13
km

22
km

12
km

8
km

AN PO
IN
RIM
T

18
km

located within a distance


D

of 12 km. from Chembur


OA

IK
R
HR
OLI- LBS

LO
W

L
ER PARE

WORLI

Distance

Investment Options in Chembur


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE
Residential property in
Chembur would appreciate
by

125%

over the next

1600 - 1750

4BHK

16 - 19.3

1350 - 1700

3BHK

12.8 - 18.7

5 years

1000 - 1150

2BHK

9.5 - 11.5

600 - 760

1BHK

5.4 - 7.6

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

Developer

No. of Launch Completion


Units Date
Date

Views

Dheeraj
Group

308

May-10 Jun-14

Brizo
Residency

Red Brick

132

Dec-10 Dec-14

Mangal
Moorti

Mangal Moorti 250


Developer

Jan-10

Dec-14

Akshay
Paradise

Akshay
Corporation

Jun-11

Oct-14

70

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Of the

1,871

residential

units launched in Wadala

DESTINATION
WADALA

since 2007, 1,387 units were


launched in 2011 alone

WADALA RESIDENTIAL MARKET


* Till September 2012

2007 2008 2009

the premium segment, the

2011

2012*

56%

56%

46%

No. of Units

With a slew of launches in

2010

2000

41%

41%

1500
1000

perception of Wadala as a
residential market has

500

3%

signicantly improved
Cumulative Supply

Being strategically
located, Wadala will
benet from its

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Wadala is a residential market in the


central zone. Eastern expressway is the
arterial road that connects Wadala with other
regions of the central zone and also the CBD
in the island city zone. The destination is also
connected by the suburban train network through
the Wadala station. It is surrounded by dense
residential developments on the south, north
and western side by Parel-Sewri, Matunga and
Dadar respectively. Arabian Sea on the eastern
side restricts any further real estate development

here.The destination witnessed very limited supply,


of just 167 residential units, between 2007 and
2009. However, the consumer perception about
the location started improving in 2010 and
2011.During this period almost 1,704 units were
launched, many of them being positioned at the
high end market. These projects also witnessed
healthy absorption at the very initial stage of the
launch. At present, the destination has an unsold
inventory of 56%, which is at a nascent stage of
construction.

WADALA RESIDENTIAL LAUNCHES

WADALA PRICE FORECAST

* Till September 2012

* Figures in `/sq.ft

connectivity with
employment hubs across
the MMR

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2012

2017E
`55,459

1,387
`36,000
`35,000
`15,000

313
72

95

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

Prabhadevi

Wadala

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

WADALA PRICE FORECAST


Wadala residential market
will benet due to its

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

connectivity with the


premium oce market of
Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC)

60,000
54,000
48,000

37%

42,000
36,000
30,000

58%

24,000
18,000
12,000
6,000

2007
Prabhadevi

2008

Wadala

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

The region development


authority's intention of
developing Wadala in a
similar manner as BKC will
further increase the
appeal of this destination

The most important proposition of the Wadala


residential market is its strategic location in the
MMR. Located to the south of the central zone,
this destination is at a comfortable commuting
distance from the employment centres of the
island city zone, central zone, western zone as
well as Navi Mumbai. On account of this strategic
location, the overall growth in the MMR oce
market will have a bearing on this destination.
Besides, the proximity of 8 km. and 10 km. from
prominent oce markets of BKC and Worli
respectively, make it a sought after residential
catchment. As a result, new launches in the last
two years have been positioned at the high end
segment of consumers. This happened because
Wadala oers large land parcels to develop
residential projects with sky scrapers oering
ultra-modern amenities. This provision enables
the destination to provide a lifestyle shift and
command a premium price for the residential
property in comparison to the surrounding micromarkets.
At present, the arterial Eastern expressway
connects this destination with the CBD of
Nariman Point, Fort and Colaba. The suburban

train network connects the destination with


Mumbai CST in the island city zone, Andheri in
the western zone and Vashi and CBD Belapur in
the Navi Mumbai zone. This strategic location
along with established road and suburban train
connectivity with the important oce markets in
each zone make Wadala a promising residential
market.
During the next ve years (2013-2017), two major
infrastructure projects will alter the residential
landscape of this destination. The Eastern
Freeway Project, which is in advanced stages of
construction and is expected to be operational by
2013, will immensely improve the road
connectivity with the CBD in the island city zone.
Additionally, the mass rapid connectivity through
a convenient and modern means of transport will
be provided by the upcoming monorail project.
The 20.2 km. Chembur Wadala- Jacob Circle
monorail project will connect Wadala with the
upcoming oce developments in Central Mumbai
namely Lower Parel. While Phase I connecting
Chembur with Wadala will be ready by 2013, the
work for Phase II, connecting Wadala with Jacob
Circle, is yet to be commissioned.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Wadala has the potential


to provide a lifestyle
shift, which is possible in
projects developed on

Going forward, we expect this destination to


follow the established market of Prabhadevi. In
comparison to Prabhadevi residential property,
the discount has already narrowed down from
70% in 2007 to 58% in 2012.Wadala commands a

price of `15,000/sq.ft., which is a 58% discount


to Prabhadevi that commands an average price of
`36,000/sq.ft. Based on our investment rationale
this discount will narrow down in the next ve
years (2013-2017) and come down to 37% by 2017.

large land parcels that


developments with plush

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT LOCATIONS

amenities

* By road

AN

WORLI

10
km

5
km

21
km

13
km

18
km

EX

PL

BA

DR
AK

VASHI

15
km

8
km

Distance

ERI- KURLA
DH

AD
RO

WER PAR
LO
E

URLA C

OM

AD

facilitate high rise premium

VI
O
KH
ROLI- LBS R

NA
T
RIMAN POIN

Travel time

Investment Options in Wadala


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

SELECT PROJECTS

Wadala residential
property shall appreciate
by

133%

next 5 years

1950 - 2700

4BHK

28.3 - 45.9

during the
1500 - 1900

3BHK

22.5 - 30.4

1260 -1520

2BHK

18.3 - 25.1

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Project

Developer

No. of Launch Completion


Units Date
Date

Dosti
Ambrosia

Dosti Group

288

New Cue
Parade

Lodha Group 900

Nov-10 Sep-14

Oct-11

Nov-15

Vishwachand R.K.
Sky
Developers

100

May-11

Dec-13

Zeon

164

Sep-11

Dec-15

Ajmera

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

The Mumbai Trans Harbour


Link (MTHL) will
signicantly improve the

HIDDEN GEM
Ranjanpada

connectivity of
Ranjanpada with the

* By road
AIROLI

D BELAPU
R
CB

28
km

15
km

22
km

VASHI

Distance

Suburban train
connectivity will
establish Ranjanpada as a
residential market in the
years

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT
LOCATIONS
* By road

55
km

MAN POI
RI

40
mins

Current Distance in km.


Road Distance post MTHL in km.

45
km

ER PAR
E
OW

38
mins

The destination is at a distance of approx. 15 km,


22 km and 28 km from prominent oce markets
of CBD Belapur, Vashi and Airoli respectively.
Although these employment centers are at a
comfortable distance, the connectivity is a
drawback both in terms of the mode of commute
and the transit time. Ranjanpada only has a road
connectivity to CBD Belapur, beyond which the
suburban train connectivity is available. On
account of container trac from JNPT, the trac
on the Uran Road, which connects Ranjanpada to
Belapur, remains high. Beyond Belapur, the
destination is connected to Vashi through the
Palm Beach Road and the Thane-Belapur Road
and alternatively by the suburban train network.
However, the under construction rail project on
Nerul-Seawood-Uran line will move the scale in

Additionally, the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link


(MTHL) project will be a game changer project for
this destination. This project will radically change
the road connectivity and bring a drastic
reduction in travel time between Ranjanpada and
the Island city zone. At present, the shortest road
connectivity between this destination and
Mumbai is through the Vashi Bridge (Sion Panvel
Highway). The destination will be amongst the
biggest beneciaries on account of this
connectivity with the CBD locations of Nariman
Point, Fort, Colaba. The nancial feasibility has
been concluded. The authortiy has shortlisted
contractors so that the work can be commissioned
by 2013.

NT

next

Ranjanpada is a locality in the Navi Mumbai Zone.


With absolutely no mass rapid transport, the
region has extremely poor inter zone connectivity.
The JNPT Road is the only connectivity of
Ranjapada with important regions in Navi
Mumbai. Currently, the only driver for the real
estate development in this destination is the port
related activity in the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust
(JNPT).

favour of this location. Being a mass rapid mode


of transport this suburban train link will reduce
transit time and provide last mile connectivity to
this destination. The attractiveness of residential
market is expected to increase with this
enhanced connectivity with the important oce
markets in the Navi Mumbai zone. This project is
expected to be complete by 2016.

CONNECTIVITY TO IMPORTANT
LOCATIONS

NA

revered island city

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PUNE

Pune, also referred to as the Oxford of India due to the presence of


numerous educational institutes, is the seventh most populous city in India
and the second largest city in Maharashtra. Punes urban agglomeration,
also known as the Pune Metropolitan Region (PMR), is spread over 1,340
sq.km. and consists of Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), Pimpri
Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC), Pune Cantonment and Khadki
Cantonment. As per Census 2011, the total population of PMR was 5.05 mn.
Development of the PMR is undertaken by various agencies such as the
PMC, PCMC, Public Works Department (PWD) and others. Absence of a
single planning authority for the metropolitan region has led to an
inordinate delay in the execution of various infrastructure projects. Although
the idea to set up the Pune Metropolitan Regional Development Authority
(PMRDA) was first initiated in 2008, it is still at the proposal stage.

PUNE METROPOLITAN REGION POPULATION


Population in Millions

1991

2.49

4.0%

Population

2001

3.76

4.0%

2011

5.05

3.0%

Average Annual Growth

Source: Census 2011, Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PUNE MAP

Major Roads
Railway Line
Proposed Metro Corridor I
Proposed Metro Corridor II
South Zone
West Zone
Central Zone
East Zone
North Zone
Price Contours (`/ sq.ft)

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Pune Metropolitan Region


is spread over

1,340 sq.km. and has a


population of

5.05 mn.

Market
Overview
Pune is divided into ve broad zones: Central,
North, West, South and East.
ZONE

MAJOR RESIDENTIAL
DESTINATIONS

North

Pimpri, Chinchwad, Nigdi, Moshi,


Dighi

Central

Bund Garden Road, Koregaon


Park, Deccan, Model Colony,
Kothrud, Swargate

Development of

Hinjewadi as an
IT/ITeS destination has led
to an unprecedented

South

Warje, Katraj, Kondhwa, NIBM


Road, Undri

East

Kalyani Nagar, Yerwada, Viman


Nagar, Kharadi, Wagholi Road,
Hadapsar

West

Aundh, Baner, Pashan, Bavdhan,


Wakad, Hinjewadi, Ravet

growth of the western


part

Since 2007, the city has


witnessed the launch of

200,301
which

units of

154,874 units

have been absorbed till


Q3 2012

North Pune is primarily an industrial area with


various Auto & Auto Ancillary and Engineering
industries located here. The twin towns of Pimpri
and Chinchwad are host to some of Indias
leading auto companies manufacturing plants
such as Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Force Motors and
DaimlerChrysler. Additionally, engineering majors
like Thermax, Forbes-Marshall, ThyssenKrupp and
Alfa Laval also have their manufacturing base
here. Historically, North Pune has been a selfsucient zone with the residential market
thriving on the employment generated by the
manufacturing sector. Pimpri, Chinchwad, Nigdi
and Moshi are some of the prominent residential
destinations here.
Central Pune is the commercial heart of the city
with various corporate oces located in the
Central Business District (CBD) areas of Bund
Garden Road, M.G Road, Deccan and Shivaji
Nagar. Good physical and social infrastructure,
presence of organized retail, excellent
connectivity with various parts of the city and
limited availability of vacant land have ensured
the highest property prices in this part of the city.
Destinations such as Koregaon Park, D.P Road,
Model Colony and Kothrud are some of the
primary residential areas here.
Over the years South Pune has emerged as a

cheaper alternate residential zone compared to


Central Pune. People preferring to reside in
proximity to the city centre but unable to aord a
house there, favor these locations. Absence of
any signicant employment opportunities has
restricted the growth of this zone as compared to
other zones. Katraj, Kondhwa, NIBM Road and
Warje are some of the major residential
destinations here.
Large number of IT/ITeS oces, robust physical
and social infrastructure, established organized
retail market, presence of the Pune airport and
proximity to the city centre have resulted in East
Pune emerging as the most preferred residential
zone in the last ten years. Development of
Magarpatta City as a self-sustaining integrated
township and setting up of EON IT Park have
further boosted the residential market here.
However, the emergence of Hinjewadi in West
Pune as an alternate IT/ITeS destination has been
giving a tough competition to the oces located
here. A lot of blue chip IT/ITeS companies prefer
Hinjewadi over East Pune due to the availability of
vast vacant land on which built-to-suit oces can
be constructed for captive use. Although East
Pune continues to attract small and mid-sized
IT/ITeS companies, most of the larger players are
setting up campuses in West Pune.

RESIDENTIAL LAUNCH TREND


IN PUNE
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

42,637
38,809

2011

2012*

40,452

33,104
24,866
20,433

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF PUNE

33% and 28% of the

* Till September 2012

under construction units

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

are located in West and


East Pune respectively
No. of Units

200,000

10%

160,000
120,000
80,000

23%

20%

13%

9%

8%

40,000

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Development of Hinjewadi as an IT/ITeS


destination has led to an unprecedented growth
of the western part of the city in the last ten years.
Residential locations that are in close proximity
to Hinjewadi such as Aundh, Baner, Pashan and
Wakad have immensely beneted from the large
number of IT/ITeS jobs created here. Availability
of large tracts of vacant land at aordable prices
and excellent road connectivity with the city
centre has led to the rapid development of this
zone.
Emergence of the IT/ITeS sector along with the
setting up of various manufacturing units in Pune
over the last decade has resulted in the citys real
estate market expanding in all four directions.
Since 2007, the city has witnessed the launch of
more than 200,301 units of which 154,874 units
have been absorbed till Q3 2012, resulting in
23% remaining unsold. The percentage of unsold
units has witnessed an uptrend in the last few
years. It has increased from 9% in 2009 to 23% in
Q3 2012 as the absorption rate has not been
able to match the pace of new launches. The
period witnessed the launch of 124,561 units, of
which only 86,854 units were absorbed.

ZONE-WISE SPLIT OF UNDER


CONSTRUCTION UNITS
18%

33%

28%
2%

19%
Central

West

North

South

East

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

IT/ITeS, Auto

Real Estate Drivers

and

Employment Indicators

Infrastructure Development

Engineering
sectors are the

Service Sector

Manufacturing Sector

Rail Network

Road Network

primary employment

IT/ITeS Sector

Auto & Auto Ancillaries

Pune Metro Rail Corridor I & II

Ring Road

Engineering

drivers

Infrastructure Development
EXISTING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK
CONNECTIVITY

DESCRIPTION

Old MumbaiPune Highway

Starts at Shivaji Nagar towards Mumbai


via Pimpri Chinchwad

A vital road connecting Pimpri Chinchwad with


Central Pune

Mumbai-Pune
Bypass Road (NH-4)

Connects Katraj in the South Pune with


Mumbai-Pune Expressway and Pimpri
Chinchwad in the North

Provides seamless connectivity with Hinjewadi


in West, Mumbai-Pune Expressway in North
and Pune-Bangalore Highway in the South

Pune Nashik
Highway (NH-50)

Starts at Kasarwadi towards Nashik in


the North via Chakan

Connects North Pune markets like Bhosari and


Moshi with the city center

Pune Solapur
Highway (NH-9)

Starts from Camp in the city centre


towards Solapur in the East

Provides easy connectivity with Hadapsar in


East Pune from the city centre

Pune is connected
through
roads

4 major arterial

UPCOMING ARTERIAL ROAD NETWORK


CONNECTIVITY

DESCRIPTION

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Outer Ring
Road I

Theur Phata
This road will provide direct
(NH-9) - Wagholi - connectivity between NH- 9 in
Chimbli (NH-50)
East Pune and NH-50 in North Pune

Feasibility study
and preparation of
a detailed project
report

2017-18

Outer Ring
Road II

Chimbali Phata
(NH-50) - NH-4 Pirangut

Easy access between North and


West Pune

Feasibility study
and preparation of
a detailed project
report

2017-18

Outer Ring
Road III

Pirangut Sinhagad - PuneBangalore


Highway (NH-4)

Will connect West Pune with


Sinhagad and Pune-Bangalore
Highway in South Pune

Feasibility study
and preparation of
a detailed project
report

Post 2018

Outer Ring
Road IV

Katraj (NH-4) Theur Phata


(NH-9)

Will directly connect NH- 4 in the


South and NH- 9 in East Pune

Feasibility study
and preparation of
a detailed project
report

Post 2018

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

UPCOMING SUBURBAN RAIL NETWORK


Phase I of the metro from
Ramwadi to Wanaz is

CONNECTIVITY

DESCRIPTION

CURRENT
STATUS

EXPECTED
COMPLETION

Ramwadi - Pune
Station - Wanaz

Will connect the heavy trac route


between East and West Pune

Undergoing
detailed technicalfeasibility study

2017-18

Approval stage

Post 2018

expected to be completed
by

2017-18

Pune Metro
Rail Corridor I

Pune Metro
Pimpri Chinchwad - Will enhance connectivity between
Rail Corridor II Shivaji Nagar North and South Pune
Swargate

Employment Indicators in Pune


Currently the IT/ITeS
sector accounts for

74%

of the total

oce stock

46% of Pune's oce

Proximity to Mumbai has always been a positive


factor for Pune and has enabled it to attract
investments from various companies to set up
their manufacturing plants here. Auto & Auto
Ancillary and Engineering sectors are the largest
employers among the various manufacturing
industries present in Pune. The emergence of
Chakan and Ranjangaon as the new
manufacturing hubs in the periphery of Pune has
led to the setting up of plants by companies such
as Volkswagen, Mahindra & Mahindra, Fiat and
Apollo Tyres.
Going forward, we expect the Auto & Auto
Ancillary sector to be one of the driving factors for
Punes growth. We forecast the output of
Maharashtras Auto & Auto Ancillary industry to
grow at an annual average rate of 17% over the
next ve years. The presence of a large number of
manufacturing plants in its vicinity will
immensely benet Pune.

space stock is located in


West Pune

Over the years, the IT/ITeS sector has emerged


the largest employer in Pune and reshaped its
real estate market. The setting up of Rajiv Gandhi
Infotech Park in Hinjewadi resulted in companies
such as Infosys, Wipro, TCS and Tech Mahindra
establishing their global delivery centres here.
Currently the IT/ITeS sector accounts for 74% of
the total oce stock and this share is expected to
go up further as new IT/ITeS oces become
operational in the coming years.
The oce space market in the city has witnessed
tremendous growth in the last six years with the
total oce stock increasing more than three
times, from 20.4 mn. sq.ft. in 2007 to 64.7 mn.
sq.ft. in Q3 2012. However, the absorption rate
has been slowing down with each passing year.
This has led to a gradual rise in the vacancy level.
The total occupied space as of Q3 2012 stands
at 48.2 mn. sq.ft., resulting in a vacancy level of
26%. The slowdown in the IT/ITeS sector coupled
with high vacancy levels in the existing stock,

ZONE WISE DISTRIBUTION OF


OFFICE SPACE STOCK
5%

OFFICE SPACE BREAK-UP

32%

46%

74%

26%

14%

3%
Central

West

North

South

East

Source: Knight Frank Research

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

90.5 mn. sq.ft. of oce


space stock is expected to
be operational by 2017

have compelled many developers to delay the


launch of new supply by 1-2 years.
Considering this, we expect an additional 25.8
mn. sq.ft. of oce space to become operational
in the next ve years taking the total stock to 90.5
mn. sq.ft. by the end of 2017.

PUNE OFFICE SPACE DYNAMICS

100
90
80
70

Going forward, we expect the IT/ITeS companies


preference for Pune to remain high due to the
availability of a large talent pool and willingness
of employees to relocate here. This will ensure a
healthy rate of absorption in the coming years
and eventually reduce the vacancy levels to 17%
by the end of 2017. We have forecasted an
incremental demand of 26.7 mn. sq.ft. in the next
ve years taking the total occupied space in the
city to 74.9 mn. sq.ft. by 2017.

60
50
40
30
20
10

Before 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
2008

STATUTORY COSTS
AND MARKET NORMS
STATUTORY COSTS

26.7

mn. sq.ft. oce

space is forecasted to be
absorbed in the next 5
years

COST

DETAILS

Stamp Duty

5% (Higher of agreement value or ready reckoner rate)

Registration

1% upto a maximum of `30,000

Value Added Tax (VAT)

1% on agreement value

Service Tax

3% on agreement value. Levied on under construction properties.

MARKET NORMS
NORM

DETAILS

Time line for property registration

Within 15 days of booking

Re-sale before possession

Allowed subject to payment of transfer charges

Loading

30% on carpet area

Brokerage

1-2% of property value

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Re-sale before
possession is not allowed
in most of the projects

The attractiveness of

Pimpri
Chinchwad
as a manufacturing hub is
slowly fading out, with
many companies shifting
their units to alternate
cheaper locations

While

16.8 mn. sq.ft. of

incremental oce stock


will be added to the West
Zone, the East will add
only 9 mn.sq.ft.

PREFERRED
ZONE IN
PUNE
Pune residential market has historically been an
end-user driven market which has ensured
minimal price volatility. However, 2007 onwards
investor participation has witnessed an
increasing trend with local investors as well as
those from Mumbai buying properties in the
peripheral areas. This is despite the fact that
most of the developers discourage investor
participation by restricting re-sale before
possession.
Employment growth and infrastructure
development will be the primary drivers of the
real estate market in Pune in the coming years.
However, the impact of infrastructure
development will be comparatively low, as most
of the upcoming infrastructure projects are still at
a very nascent stage and will not be operational
before 2018. Growth in employment will be largely
from the IT/ITeS sector followed by the
manufacturing sector.
North Pune, where majority of the existing
manufacturing plants are located, will benet
from the growth in the Auto & Auto Ancillary
sector. However, the impact of this will be limited
as no new units are being set up here due to the
paucity of large vacant land parcels and high cost
of existing land. The attractiveness of Pimpri
Chinchwad as the manufacturing hub is slowly
fading out, with many companies shifting their
units to alternate cheaper locations. Most of the
new manufacturing plants are coming up along
the periphery of Pune like Chakan and
Ranjangaon which are located 32 km. and 50 km.
away from the city centre respectively. Hence, no
signicant benet of incremental employment
will be felt on North Pune.
East and West Pune will accrue the maximum
benet of incremental employment in Pune, as
more than three-fourth of the existing oce
space stock and 95% of the upcoming stock will
be located here. However, within these two
zones, the West Zone will account for majority of
the upcoming oce space. While 16.8 mn.sq.ft.
of incremental oce stock will be added to West
Zone, the East will add only 9 mn.sq.ft. In
addition to this, oces in East Pune are spread
across dierent destinations such as Hadapsar,
Kharadi, Kalyani Nagar, Magarpatta City and
Nagar Road. This distributes the demand for
residential space evenly across these

destinations, thereby reducing the preference for


any single location. In contrast to this, more than
80% of the oces in West Pune are located in
Hinjewadi. This increases the importance of the
destinations that are located in close proximity to
Hinjewadi.
South Pune will not witness any signicant gain
in the residential market, as it is primarily
dependent on East and West Pune where most of
the employment hubs are located. Additionally,
the prices here are equivalent to most of the
emerging destinations of East and West Pune
leaving little room for further appreciation.
Similar is the case with Central Pune.
The above mentioned reasons make a compelling
case for the preference of West Pune over other
zones. Although in terms of social infrastructure
West Pune still lags; we expect this gap to be
lled up rapidly in the coming years. A large
number of educational institutes, organized retail
and entertainment avenues are expected to
become operational here in the next ve years.

WEST PUNE
Maharashtra governments push to the IT/ITeS
sector by setting up of the Rajiv Gandhi Infotech
Park in Hinjewadi has changed the face of West
Pune. Currently, Phase I, II and III of the park are
operational with campuses of IT/ITeS majors such
as Infosys, Wipro, TCS, Tech Mahindra and
Cognizant present here. Apart from this, various
companies are operating out of the Dlf Akruti IT
SEZ, Blueridge SEZ, Embassy Techzone and
Ascendas International Tech Park which together
account for over 5 mn.sq.ft. of oce stock. Plans
for further expansion into Phase IV and V are
underway and land acquisition is already in

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN WEST PUNE
* Till September 2012
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

16,710
14,947

13,850
11,150

10,513

5,865

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

WEST PUNE MAP

NH

DEHUROAD
CANTOMENT

To
h
K
a
d
n
a
la

CHIKHALI

m
Mu
iba
n
Pu
e

Ex

pr
es
sw
ay

CHINCHWAD

RAVET
NH

PIMPRI

TATHAWADE

PIMPRI
CHINCHWAD

NH

WAKAD
HINJEWADI

BALEWADI

Baner Ro

ad

BANER

AUNDH

SUS

PASHAN

LAVALE
BAVDHAN

Major Roads

PIRANGUT

Railway Line
Benchmark location

Paud Road

Paud

Road

oa

eR

rv
Ka

Top destination
Employment Hubs

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Over the next 5 years,

Hinjewadi is set
to become one of the
largest oce space hubs
in India

From 2007 to Q3 2012, West


Pune has witnessed the
launch of

process. Over the next ve years, Hinjewadi is set


to become one of the largest oce space hubs in
India, which will benet the adjoining residential
markets.
Preference of employees in staying close to their
work place and aordable pricing as compared to
Central Pune will drive the demand for housing in
this zone. Destinations along the route to
Hinjewadi such as Baner, Pashan, Bavdhan and
Wakad have already emerged as preferred
residential locations for employees working here.
Going forward, destinations located within
Hinjewadi and along the Mumbai-Pune Bypass

Road will also witness similar phenomena.


From 2007 to Q3 2012, West Pune has witnessed
the launch of 73,035 units. The absorption during
the same period has been 57,150 units with 22%
remaining unsold. The unsold units percentage
increased considerably post 2009; 28,797 units
were launched during 2010 and 2011. The unsold
units percentage has moved up from 6% in 2009
to 22% in Q3 2012. Developers have taken stock
of this oversupply situation and hence reduced
the number of new launches. Only 41 new
projects consisting of 5,655 units have been
launched in 2012.

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF WEST PUNE


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

73,035 units

2009

2010

2011

2012*
22%

17%

No. of Units

10%
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

Stock

The unsold units


percentage has moved up
from 6% in 2009 to
in SEPTEMBER 2012

22%

6%
4%

5%

Cumulative Absorption

% of Unsold Units

Source: Knight Frank Research

EXISTING
UPCOMING
INFRAINFRASTRUCTURE STRUCTURE
MUMBAI-PUNE BYPASS ROAD

OUTER RING ROAD II & III

The Mumbai-Pune Bypass Road is an arterial road


in West Pune that starts at the Mumbai-Pune
Expressway in the north and connects with the
Pune-Bangalore highway near Katraj in the south.
The road passes through the entry point of
Hinjewadi at Wakad and acts as a vital transit
route for the various residential destinations
located in the West Zone. Since it is a four-lane
highway with two-lane service roads, the time
taken to various locations on this route is
marginal. The road provides multiple access
points towards the city centre through the
Kalewadi Road, Baner Road and Pashan-Sus
Road. Residential development in West Pune has
been centred along the various access points of
this road.

The Outer Ring Road, rst proposed in 2007, will


be a 170 km. long ring road in the periphery of
Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad which will be
developed by the Maharashtra State Road
Development Corporation (MSRDC) in four
phases. The objective of this road is to reduce
trac congestion within the city by diverting
outstation vehicles onto this road.
Phase II of the Outer Ring Road will start from
Chimbali Phata on the Pune-Nashik Highway (NH50) in the north and connect Pirangut in the west
via Mumbai-Pune Highway and Rihe. Phase III will
connect Pirangut with the Pune-Bangalore
Highway (NH-4) in the south via Sinhagad. These
roads will pass through the western side of

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Residential development in
West Pune has been
centred along the various

Hinjewadi and directly connect with the MumbaiPune Expressway in north the and PuneBangalore Highway (NH-4) in the south thereby
reducing the strain on the existing Mumbai-Pune
Bypass Road.

access points of the

Mumbai-

MSRDC in June 2012 invited global bids for


appointment of consultants to carry out the

feasibility study and prepare a detailed project


report. The construction of Phase II and III will
take a significantly longer time as a large number
of natural bodies and defence land are located on
this route. We expect Phase II to be ready by 2018
and Phase III post 2018. Other than the Outer
Ring Roads, there are no major infrastructure
projects planned in West Pune.

Pune Bypass
Road

EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS
IN WEST PUNE
The major employment driver in West Pune is the
IT/ITeS sector. Since 2008, more than 22 mn.
sq.ft. of office space has been constructed in this
zone including the captive offices of companies
like TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Cognizant. In the
next five years, an additional 16.8 mn. sq.ft. of
office space will become operational taking the
total office stock in West Pune to 47.3 mn. sq.ft.
by the end of 2017.

The Outer Ring Road will


be

170 km. long, along

the periphery of Pune and


Pimpri Chinchwad

Currently 28% of the total office stock in West


Pune is lying vacant as the slowdown in the
IT/ITeS sector has compelled many companies to
delay their expansion plans. However, the slow
pace of delivery in new projects and improvement
in absorption rate in the coming years will bring
down the vacancy levels to 16% by 2017. We
forecast an incremental absorption of 17.6 mn.
sq.ft. in the next five years taking the total
occupied space to 39.5 mn. sq.ft. by 2017.

employees for residing closer to their workplace


is high, its impact will be positively felt on the
demand for residential units here.

WEST PUNE OFFICE SPACE


DYNAMICS

50
40
30
20
10

Before 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E
2008

The traction expected in West Punes office space


is bound to create additional employment in the
zone. Since the preference among IT/ITeS

INVESTMENT DESTINATIONS
IN WEST PUNE
Employment opportunities in the IT/ITeS sector
will be the primary driver of the residential market
in West Pune. Although prices will rise in majority
of the destinations located in this zone, there will
be certain destinations that will outperform
others. Destinations that are in close proximity to
Hinjewadi or located along the Mumbai-Pune
Bypass Road will witness higher price
appreciation as compared to farther locations
due to the concentration of office space here.
In the last ten years, locations such as Baner,

Balewadi, Pashan and Bavdhan have witnessed


considerable price appreciation, as they are not
only located close to the city centre but also are
easily accessible from Hinjewadi. Rapid
development of physical infrastructure, organized
retail, social infrastructure and entertainment
avenues over the last couple of years have
resulted in West Pune becoming a self-sufficient
zone. This has reduced the need for staying
closer to the city centre. Instead, proximity to the
workplace has become a key factor when buying

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

We forecast an
incremental absorption of

17.6

mn. sq.ft. of office

space in West Pune in the


next 5 years

a house. These factors have led to the emergence


of newer residential destinations like Hinjewadi,
Wakad, Tathawade and Ravet. Apart from being in
close proximity to Hinjewadi, prices in these
destinations are also significantly lower as
compared to Baner, Balewadi, Pashan and
Bavdhan. The difference in price will eventually
narrow down resulting in higher appreciation for
these locations.
Going forward, we expect Hinjewadi, Wakad,
Tathawade and Ravet to witness the maximum
amount of price appreciation in Punes residential
market. While Hinjewadi is located within the
Rajiv Gandhi Infotech Park, the other three are
situated along the Mumbai-Pune Bypass Road.
The primary reasons in brief for these four
destinations to outperform others in Pune over
the next five years are:
Pune will witness an incremental demand of
26.7 mn.sq.ft. of office space over the next five
years primarily driven by the IT/ITeS sector.
66% of this will be within West Pune.
Unlike East Pune, 80% of offices in the west
are concentrated in Hinjewadi. This increases
the importance of residential markets located
in close proximity to Hinjewadi.
With West Pune emerging a self-sufficient zone
over the years, the need for residing closer to
the city centre has reduced. Instead, proximity

to the workplace has gained paramount


importance for buying a house.
Hinjewadi, Wakad, Tathawade and Ravet
address all the above factors due to their
favourable location
Additionally, prices in these destinations are still
at a significant discount compared to nearby
locations of Baner, Balewadi, Pashan and
Bavdhan. This discount will narrow down in the
coming five years.
Most of the factors that will drive the residential
prices in West Pune will be common for all the
destinations located here. However, the degree of
influence of these factors on each of the
destinations will be different depending on their
location in West Pune. Aundh, which is the most
established destination in West Pune, has been
considered as the benchmark for comparing
prices in this zone and going forward we expect
all the other destinations located here to follow
the price trend of Aundh.
Currently the residential prices in Hinjewadi,
Wakad, Tathawade and Ravet are significantly
lower as compared to Aundh. We believe that
over the next five years, this discount will narrow
down due to the reasons listed earlier.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

We expect Hinjewadi,
Wakad, Tathawade and
Ravet to witness the

DESTINATION
HINJEWADI

maximum amount of price


appreciation

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF HINJEWADI


* Till September 2012

2007 2008

2009

2010

2011
28%

No. of Units

20,000
15,000

24%

18%

17%

10,000

14%
12%

5,000

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

The growing preference for the walk-to-work


concept among the IT/ITeS employees has led to
the emergence of Hinjewadi as the most sought
after residential location. The presence of various
integrated township projects within Hinjewadi
takes care of all the necessary requirements of
the residents such as education, organized retail
and entertainment.

Currently the percentage

2012*

onwards, resulting in an increase in the


percentage of unsold units with each passing
year. Currently the percentage of unsold units
stands at 24%.

Since 2007, 15,070 units have been launched, of


which 11,466 have been absorbed till Q3 2012.
The launch of various township projects has
ensured a steady supply of new units 2010

Going forward, we expect the absorption rate to


increase due to the reasons mentioned earlier
and this will positively impact prices in Hinjewadi.
Currently, Hinjewadi prices are 49% lower than
Aundh. We forecast this discount to narrow down
to 29% by the end of 2017 resulting in Hinjewadi
prices moving up from `4,000/sq.ft. to
`8,000/sq.ft.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN HINJEWADI

PRICE FORECAST

* Till September 2012

* Figures in `/sq.ft

of unsold units stands at

24%

in Hinjewadi

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2012

4,214
3,750

2017E

4,076
`11,200
`7,800
`8,000
`4,000

1,881

975
175

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

Aundh

Hinjewadi

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT
We forecast prices in
Hinjewadi to increase by

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

100% from
2012 to 2017

12,000
10,000

29%

8,000
6,000

49%

4,000
2,000

BEFORE
2008
Hinjewadi

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Discount Margin

Aundh

Source: Knight Frank Research

Investment Options in Hinjewadi


Ticket size in Hinjewadi
starts from

INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

`3.4 mn.

for a 2 BHK

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

Developer

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

1220 - 1800

3BHK

4.9 - 7.2

Megapolis

Kumar
Properties
and ABIL

4000

Mar-08 Dec-13

860 - 1370

2BHK

3.4 - 5.5

Life
Republic

Kolte Patil
Developers

2100

Feb-11

Dec-14

Oct-07

Dec-13

571 - 930

2.3 - 3.7

Blue Ridge Paranjape


Schemes

2000

1BHK

The Crown
Greens

TCG Real
Estate

165

Sep-11

Mar-14

Sovereign

Saarrthi
Group

172

Dec-07 Mar-13

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

From 2007 till Q3 2012, a


total of

15,570 units

DESTINATION
WAKAD

haS been launched of


which

12,864 units have

been absorbed in Wakad

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF WAKAD


* Till September 2012

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

No. of Units

13%

15,000
10,000

7%

8%

7%

4%

Cumulative Absorption

91% in the coming 5

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Till a few years back, Wakad was a non-descript


place. However, proximity to the Rajiv Gandhi
Infotech Park in Hinjewadi has led to many
IT/ITeS professionals preferring to reside here as
the travel time to work is hardly 10 minutes by
road. Additionally, it is well connected with
nearby locations such as Baner, Aundh, Pashan
and Bavdhan. Despite these reasons, prices in
Wakad have been historically at a discount as
compared to these nearby locations.

Wakad to increase by

17%

5,000

Stock

We forecast prices in

2012*

Availability of vast tracts of vacant land attracted


the attention of many developers and led to the
launch of more than 100 projects in Wakad since
2007. From 2007 till Q3 2012, a total of 15,570
units have been launched of which 12,864 units
have been absorbed. More than 50% of the total

years

units were absorbed during 2007 and 2008. Post


2008, the absorption rate has considerably
reduced due to the slowdown in the IT/ITeS
sector. Currently, 17% of the total units remain
unsold which is signicantly higher than 4% in
2007.
Going forward, we expect the absorption rate to
remain healthy, as a growing number of IT/ITeS
companies have begun to prefer Hinjewadi for
setting up their operations. Moreover, the drop in
new launches in 2012 will help in reducing the
unsold inventory of previous years. The traction
expected in Wakad will reduce the price discount
from 42% to 23% as compared to Aundh in the
coming ve years. We forecast the prices to
increase from `4,500/sq.ft. to `8,600/sq.ft. by
the end of 2017.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN WAKAD

PRICE FORECAST

* Till September 2012

* Figures in `/sq.ft

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012*

2012

2017E
`11,200

4,234

`7,800
`8,600
3,081

3,077

`4,500

2,576

1,106

1,495

Aundh

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

Wakad

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT
A drop in new launches in

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

2012 will help in


reducing the unsold
inventory of THE previous
years

12,000
10,000

23%

8,000
6,000

42%

4,000
2,000

BEFORE
2008
Wakad

2008

Aundh

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

Investment Options in Wakad


Ticket sizeS in Wakad start
from
2 BHK

INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

`3.6 mn. for a


1600 - 2700

7.2 - 12.2

1470 - 1750

6.6 - 7.9

800 - 1500

3.6 - 6.8

580 - 950

2.6 - 4.3

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

SELECT PROJECTS
Project

Developer

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

Pristine
Prolife

Pristine
Properties

384

Sep-11

Dec-13

Pride Purple
Park
Turquoise Group

192

Jun-11

Oct-14

Kalpataru Kalpataru
Splendour

188

May-10 Dec-13

Casa
Imperia

Aum Housing 290

Jan-11

Dec-13

Elite
Homes

DNV Builders 376

Mar-11

Feb-13

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

Tathawade can be
considered as an
extension of Wakad with
only

4 km. separating

them

DESTINATION
Tathawade
RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF TATHAWADE
* Till September 2012

2010

2011

2012*
27%

1,400

22%

No. of Units

1,200
1,000
800
600

4%

400
200

Stock

In the next 5 years, the


price trend in Tathawade
will mirror that of Wakad
as these two markets are

closely

Cumulative Absorption

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

Tathawade can be considered as an extension of


Wakad with only 4 km. separating them. It is
located on the eastern side of the Mumbai-Pune
Bypass Road and can be accessed from Hinjewadi
through the Dange Chowk Road. Tathawade has
similar characteristics as Wakad except that the
prices are 5% lower here.

coming years as the destination will observe an


increase in absorption rate and lesser number of
new launches.

Tathawade is a relatively new residential market


with most of the projects launched only during
the last three years. Of the 1,415 units launched
since 2010, 1,038 units have been absorbed till
Q3 2012. Although the percentage of unsold
units is currently high, we expect it to fall in the

In the next ve years, the price trend in


Tathawade will mirror that of Wakad as these two
markets are closely linked together. However, the
dierence in price between them will reduce over
the years and prices in Tathawade will be almost
equal to that of Wakad by 2017. Similar to Wakad,
the price discount in Tathawade as compared to
Aundh will reduce from 45% to 24% resulting in
prices moving up from `4,300/sq.ft. to
`8,500/sq.ft. by 2017.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN TATHAWADE

PRICE FORECAST

* Till September 2012

* Figures in `/sq.ft

linked

2010

2011

2012*

2012

2017E
`11,200

`7,800

876

`8,500
`4,300

305
234

Aundh

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

Tathawade

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT
We forecast prices in
Tathawade to increase by

98%

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

in the coming 5

years

12,000
10,000

24%

8,000
6,000

45%

4,000
2,000

2010

Tathawade

2011

Aundh

2012

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

Investment Options in Tathawade


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

1250 - 1500

3BHK

5.4 - 6.5

920 - 1200

2BHK

4.0 - 5.2

590 - 950

1BHK

2.5 - 4.1

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

SELECT PROJECTS

Project

Developer

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

Elementa

Akshar
Developers

850

Oct-10

Dec-14

Ganga
Aurum
Park

Goel Ganga
Deployment

144

Dec-11

Jun-14

The Nook

Bhojwani
Homes

282

Jun-12

Dec-14

Palladio

Vilas
Javdekar
Group

150

Sep-11

Sep-13

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

We forecast prices in Ravet


to increase by

97% in

DESTINATION
RAVET

the coming 5 years

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY ANALYSIS OF RAVET


* Till September 2012

2010

2011

2012*

2,000

30%

1,800
1,600

17%

No. of Units

1,400

16%

1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200

Stock

Cumulative Absorption

Similar to Tathawade, residential activities in


Ravet started post 2010 and a total of 1,744 units
has been launched since then. Since the
destination is relatively new, the absorption rate
has been slow and only 1,216 units have been
absorbed till date resulting in 30% of the total

units remaining unsold. However, going forward


we expect the absorption rate to increase, backed
by the incremental employment in Hinjewadi and
lower prices compared to nearby destinations.
In the coming years, the price trend in Ravet will
mirror that of Wakad and Tathawade as these
markets are closely linked together. However,
prices in Ravet will continue to remain at a
marginal discount compared to these
destinations due to its farther location from
Hinjewadi. Similar to Wakad and Tathawade, the
discount in price of Ravet as compared to Aundh
will reduce from 49% to 30% resulting in prices
increasing from `3,950/sq.ft. to `7,800/sq.ft by
2017.

RESIDENTIAL PROJECT LAUNCH


TREND IN RAVET

PRICE FORECAST

* Till September 2012

* Figures in `/sq.ft

Ravet, which is further 5 km. north of Tathawade


and located on the eastern side of the MumbaiPune Bypass Road is another destination that will
immensely benet from the growth in
employment in Hinjewadi. The destination has
historically remained at a discount as compared
to Wakad and Tathawade, as it is located farther
north of Hinjewadi.

Residential activities in
Ravet started post 2010
and a total of

1,744

units has been launched

Source: Knight Frank Research

% of Unsold Units

since then

2010

2011

2012*

2012
757

2017E
`11,200

715
`7,800

`7,800
`3,950
272

Aundh

Launches

Source: Knight Frank Research

Ravet

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

PRICE MOVEMENT
Ticket sizeS in Ravet start
from

* Figures in ` per sq.ft

`3.2 mn. For

a 2 BHK

12,000
10,000

30%

8,000
6,000

49%

4,000
2,000

2010

Ravet

Aundh

2012

2011

2013E

2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

Discount Margin

Source: Knight Frank Research

Investment Options in Ravet


INVESTMENT TICKET SIZE

SELECT PROJECTS

1178 - 1360

3BHK

4.7 - 5.4

Project

Developer

820 - 1200

2BHK

3.2 - 4.7

Celestial
City

Rama Group 1200


and Pharande
Spaces

Mar-10

Dec-16

700 - 850

1BHK

2.8 - 3.4

Silver
Gardenia

Rohan
Construction

240

Nov-11

Dec-13

Serene
Scapes

S. D. Tapkir

138

Jun-11

Jul-13

Apartment Size in sq.ft.

Ticket Size in ` mn.

Source: Knight Frank Research

No. of
Units

Launch Completion
Date
Date

Source: Knight Frank Research

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

DISCLAIMER
The statements made, information and opinions
expressed or provided in this publication are intended
only as a guide to some of the important
considerations that relate to the real estate sector in
India. This report is published for general information
only and does not contain or purport to contain all the
information that any potential investor, looking to
make any investments in India may require. Neither
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connection with the report is intended to provide the
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Factual Data/ Industry and Market Data
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obtained from market research, publicly available
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veried and Knight Frank does not make any
representation as to the accuracy of that information.

INVESTMENT
advisory REPORT
Indias Residential Destinations

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Sangeeta Sharma Dutta

Gulam Zia
Executive Director- Advisory,
Retail & Hospitality

Dr. Samantak Das


Director- Research & Advisory
Services

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