SUBMITTED BY: AAMIR BIAL

PROGRAM:
REG#

BBA 6-B
22733

DATE:
JAN182015
SUBMITTED TO:
SIR AHSAN
RIZVI

VARIABLES INTRODUCTION
The data is collected from information about agriculture
sector. The
purpose of this data collection is to study the relationship:
That whether improved seed distribution and
water availability effects production of rice and if it
exists then what is the strength of relation
The data is taken from 1993-2013. The relationship is
determined with the help of SPSS-20 software, t table and
f table. The data is analyzed by using tool of multiple
regression model.
The data contains one dependent variable and two
independent variables.
Hence,
Y = PRODUCTION OF RICE
X1 = WATER AVAILABILITY
X2 = IMPROVED SEED DISTRIBUTION

DATA:
YEARS

1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13

Y-

X1- WATER

X2-

PRODUCTIO
N OF RICE
(000)TONES

AVAILABILIT IMPROVED
SEED
Y
DISTRIBUTIO
(MAF)
N
(000)TONES

3995

128.01

63.27

3447

129.65

76.87

3967

130.85

145.10

4305

132.05

137.67

4333

122.15

130.50

4674

133.78

167.38

5156

133.28

146.76

4803

134.77

193.80

3882

134.63

191.57

4479

134.48

172.07

4848

134.78

178.77

5025

135.68

218.12

5547

137.38

226.07

5438

137.80

218.60

5563

138.00

264.67

6952

131.50

314.63

6883

133.70

312.63

4823

137.16

331.02

6160

135.86

346.38

5576

137.51

351.38

STEP 01:QUANTIFICATION OF
RELATIONSHIP

Coefficientsa
Model

Unstandardized
Coefficients

B
(Constant)

Std. Error

2882.716

6247.855

2.467

48.974

8.344

2.210

Standa
rdized
Coeffic
ients
Beta

Sig.

.461

.650

.010

.050

.960

.760

3.776

.002

WATER_AVAILAB
ILITY

1
IMPROVED_SE
EDS_DISTRIBU
TION

a. Dependent Variable: RICE

b

EQUATION : Y^ = bo +b1x1+b2x2
Y^ = 2882.716+ 2.467x1 +8.344x2
If water availability increase by 1 unit then rice
production increase by 2.467 units and if improved seeds
distribution increase by 1 unit then rice production
increase by 8.344 units.

STEP 02:TESTING OF INDIVIDUAL

RELATIONSHIP

T1:
H0: b1= 0
HA: b1 0
t ,n-k=t0.05 ,20-3 = 2.110
From data given above we calculated t1 static = .050

INTERPRETATION:
Since, the value of the calculated t-statistics is less than
the critical t-value of 2.110 ,we conclude that both
parameters are not statistically equal to zero at the 5
percent level of significance. So, therefore no relationship
exist between both of them, means rice production does
not depend on water availability.

RESULT:
Accept H0.

T2:
H0: b2= 0
HA: b2 0
t ,n-k=t0.05 ,20-3 = 2.110
From data given above we calculated t2 static= 3.776

INTERPRETATION:
Since the value of calculated t2 static exceeds the critical
t value of 2.110 we conclude that b2 is different from zero
at the 5% level of significance. Hence relation exists
which means the production of rice depends upon
improved seeds distribution.

RESULT:
Reject H0.

STEP 03:GOODNESS OF FIT TEST

Model Summaryb
Model

.767a

R
Square

Adjusted R Std. Error of

Square
the Estimate

.588

.539

DurbinWatson

694.403

2.029

a. Predictors: (Constant), Water availability ,Improved Seeds

Distribution,
b. Dependent Variable: RICE

INTERPRETATION
58.5% variation in production of rice is due to improved
seeds distribution. i.e. the R square .And adjusted R
square is 53.9% which means that value is reliable.

STEP 04:OVERALL PARAMETERS

ANOVAa
Model

Sum of

df

Mean Square

Sig.

Squares
Regression
1

Residual
Total

11685395.655

5842697.828

8197315.545

17

482195.032

19882711.200

19

12.117

.001b

a. Dependent Variable: RICE

b. Predictors: (Constant), Improved Seeds Distribution, Water availability

Ho: b1=b2=0
Ha: b1=b20
F static = 12.117
From f-distribution table, we find that value is 3.59.

INTERPRETATION:
Since the value of calculated f static 12.117exceeds the
critical F value of f distribution with 2 and 17 df. We
conclude that all co-efficient are different from zero at the
5% level of significance.

RESULT:
Reject Ho.

IDENTIFICATION OF PROBLEM
TYPE OF DATA
Our type of data is time series because it is collected over a specific period of time
without any research i-e secondary source

TYPE OF PROBLEM
Type of problem I have identified is multi co linearity because multi co linearity is
a strong relationship between explanatory variables and in my research b1=0
hence proving that it is statistically insignificant

SUGGESTED SOLUTION
Suggested solution for the problem is as follows we can minimize problem by
applying these it can be reduce by increasing the sample size or dropping the
highly correlated variable.

SOURCE
HTTP://FINANCE.GOV.PK/
PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY,STATISTICAL
SUPPLEMENT 2012-2013
CHAPTER 02: AGRICULTURE SECTOR
TABLE 2.1(A) 2.4