May 21, 2015

Islamic State Gains Control of Ramadi

Islamic State fighters overthrew Iraqi forces protecting the

strategically important city of Ramadi, the capital of the Sunni Muslim province of Anbar, on Sunday, signifying a major defeat
for the Baghdad government and its Western allies. About 500 people were killed and tens of thousands displaced while many
Iraqi military hastily fled in the face of the offensive, leaving behind a large cache of military supplies. Islamic State militants
quickly prepared for a counter-offensive, laying landmines and booby traps, along with positioning suicide-operated cars packed
with explosives as they raised the black flag over the main mosque, government offices and other prominent buildings. Islamic
State now controls contiguous space from Aleppo, Syria to Baghdad. Shiite militiamen allied to the Iraqi army has advanced to
a nearby base in preparation for a multi-sectarian counterattack which would be backed by a U.S.-led air campaign.
Assessment: Islamic State reinforcements expelled from the retaking of Tikrit by Iraqi forces may have made the difference
in the siege of Ramadi, which has been contested for over a year. The development will likely delay Iraqi forces retaking of
Mosul, as well. As Ramadi is predominantly Sunni, government officials are taking care to avoid the occurrence or appearance
of a sectarian conflict. Islamic State, on the other hand, hopes to recruit from the Sunni population. The release of about 100
prisoners from the counterterrorism detention center in the city could prove popular in this way, as residents have complained
that some have been subject to arbitrary detention.

Tip on Grenade Launcher Attack on Police Leads to Bust

Acting on an informants tip regarding a rocket-propelled grenade

attack plot on the Eustis Police Department, as well as a church and a youth camp, police in Florida arrested two men at a shed where they found dozens of
guns, assorted drugs, bullet proof vests, and several containers of black powder. No rocket launcher was found, but the men were charged on weapons and
drug charges. According to the informant, the attack was to take place on Monday, May 25 thMemorial Day. The 25x13 shed, which the suspects claimed
was used as a hangout was on a nine-acre property and contained a refrigerator and television.
Assessment: Authorities are uncertain as to the motive or veracity of the plot, though it was expressed that the subjects had a beef with the local police.
Weapon stockpiles are commonly consistent with drug distribution and the subjects are charged with intent to distribute. In the Bronx this week, 70 kg of
heroin and $2 million in cash were seizedthe largest heroin seizure ever in NYC by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). The 2015 National Heroin
Threat Assessment, released this month by the DEA and Dept. of Justice, identifies an increasing trend in heroin use and overdoses in the U.S.8,620 in
2013and reports the threat is particularly high in the Northeast and Midwest areas of the United States.

Texas Motorcycle Club Gathering Ends in Bloodbath

A Sunday afternoon get together in Waco for central Texas bikers turned
lethally violent when fighting led to a shootout which left nine dead and 18 injured. Police arrested 170 following the chaotic scene, centered on the Bandidtos
Outlaw Motorcycle Gang (OMG) and Cossacks Motorcycle Club (MC). While it is still unclear exactly what precipitated the violence, a long-running dispute
between the rival gangs based on a turf war was known to local law enforcement, who were staged nearby during the gathering. As a result, law enforcements
response to the fighting was instantaneous. Police believe the bikers initially fired at each other, and then at police. The blood-soaked scene was littered with
nearly 100 weapons, including guns, knives, chains, brass knuckles, and bats.
Assessment: Banditos, with 900 members in 93 U.S. chapters, and an international membership of 2,500 in 13 countries, are known drug-runners in Texas
and apparently took exception with the Cossacks, an upstart, wearing Texas on the bottom rocker of vests without paying them tax on their territory.
According to the New York State Intelligence Centers (NYSIC) Gang Intelligence Unit, there is no information indicating presence of these clubs chapters in
New York, where Hells Angels, Pagans, Mongols, and Outlaws dominate. All those in public safety should have an awareness of OMGs in their regions and
dangers posed related to illegal activity, weapons possession, and proclivity to violence.

Theft of Ambulance Ends Badly

An EMS crew in Frazier Park, Calif. responded to a home for a

medical-aid call where a woman emerged from a house wielding a knife and charged at the two after first refusing
medical care. The two crew members were able to flee the attack, at which time the woman then entered and then took
off in their ambulance. Surveillance video picks up the story where it ended, when the ambulance, travelling at 90-100
miles per hour collided with a semi-truck, killing the drivers of both vehicles.
Assessment: Theft of uniforms and equipment of emergency responders may be increasing---but for opposite
reasons. An erosion of respect for responders may trigger more situations (as above), whereas a high regard for
responders, such as often displayed by media and elected officials, creates what some may see as an opportunity. For
example, a New Mexico woman with a history of theft and drug arrests dressed in a firefighters uniform and then stole
electrical equipment from a home depot, and a Staten Island, N.Y. man was arrested for impersonating a FDNY EMT on
multiple occasions to gain access to restricted areas of a hospital.

More ISIS Wannabes Arrested at Airport Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) arrested ten youths at Montreals Pierre Elliott Trudeau
International Airport over the weekend on suspicion of attempting to join jihadists in Syria. Some of those arrested have unspecified ties to six other young
Quebecers, who are believed to have left for Turkey in January en route to Syria. A lawyer for one of those detained called his client a victim who was lured
online to the promise of a better life. On Tuesday, a federal grand jury indicted six Minnesota men, ages 19-21, on terrorism charges for planning to join ISIS.
Assessment: Former teacher and youth expert Chloe Combi explains the allure of ISIS as money, guns, and girls. After interviewing hundreds of Gen Zers
(born 1994-2005), Combi found themes along these lines along with a longing for adventure, the call to duty and desire for honor among a generation that
otherwise feels unwanted and unfulfilled. Counterterrorism efforts toward this cohort should include elimination of recruiters who prey on youth in Western
cities (as well as online) as an effective point of focus.

OBL Docs Demonstrate AQ Focus on U.S.

The White House released details on hundreds of

books, articles, research reports, and letters in Osama bin Ladens possession and seized from his Abbottabad
compound on the night of the U.S. Navy SEALSs raid that resulted in his death. It is evident in the early analysis of his
writing that he wished to continue spectacular attacks on U.S. interests, rather than make any move toward
establishing an Islamic State, as al Qaeda in Iraq was working toward at the time.
Assessment: Many reports describe bin Ladens focus on attacking the U.S., its people, and interests, using the term
obsessed. This may lead to a portrait of a maniacal foe, as opposed to a leader setting a strategy, possibly leading to
a conclusion that once the maniac is eliminated, so too is the obsession. Instead, these documents demonstrate a
continued, rational strategy on the part of al Qaeda, and one that lives on beyond OBL. One other, of many take-aways
emerging from the release of the library list, is that foreign terror leaders and strategists study their targets and, for
example, pay attention to how entities in the U.S. conduct themselves. From policymakers to responders, it is important
to think of how actions can be perceived.

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