Dr Paul JA Howarth
Director of Research, Dalton Nuclear Institute
25th May 2006
12000
MWe Dungeness B
retirement Heysham 2 and
6000 Torness
retirements
Heysham 1 and
4000 Hartlepool
retirements
2000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Sizewell B PWR AGR stations Magnox stations
* Nuclear Energy and the Kyoto Protocol, Nuclear Energy Agency, 2002
700
World
600 OECD
500
400
300
200
100
4 1 0
0
Coal Natural Hydro Nuclear
Gas
100.0
90.0
Load Factor %
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Areva EPR
1600MWe - improved French/German
design with improve safety margin and
operational envelope.
Currently being constructed in Finland
Combining the strengths of UMIST and
The Victoria University of Manchester
AP1000 Plant Simplifications
80% Fewer 45% Less 70% Less
50% Fewer 35% Fewer 80% Less Heating, Seismic Cable
Valves Pipe* Ventilating & Building
Pumps
Cooling Units Volume
2% Financing
13%
4 MIT
3.5
Chicago
Generating Cost p/kWh
2.5 OECD-2
RAE
2 DGEMP
Tarjanne
1.5 OECD- 1
0.5
4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13%
Discount Rate
Lower end of range Upper end of range Trend line for average
value
14000
12000
10000
8000
MWe
6000
4000
2000
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Existing stations Potential AGR life extension New Build
Combining the strengths of UMIST and
The Victoria University of Manchester
Size of the Challenge
Electricity
? 100GWe
for H2
Generation
140GWe
~60GWe
Assumed
Installed Future
UK UK
Capacity Nuclear
Capacity 20GWe
~80GWe ~80GWe Renewables 20GWe
TODAY 2020+
Combining the strengths of UMIST and
The Victoria University of Manchester
Thank You!
pjah@mags.ph.man.ac.uk