SCNC1111

Scientific Method and Reasoning

Part IIb

Lecture 10

Probability and Statistics

7-11-2014

 Eddy Lam
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science

What is statistics?
The term statistics is ultimately derived from the New
Latin statisticum collegium ("council of state") and
the Italian word statista ("statesman" or "politician").
The German Statistik, first introduced in 1749,
originally designated the analysis of data about
the state, signifying the "science of state" (then
called "political arithmetic" in English or Official
Statistics of the Government).
The scope of the discipline of statistics broadened in
the early 19th century to include the collection and
analysis of data in general. Today, statistics is widely
employed in government, business, and natural and
social sciences.

What is statistics?

What is statistics?

Source: http://populationpyramid.net/hong-kong-sar-china/2050/

What is statistics?
According to the Oxford Dictionary of
Statistical Terms (2003), Statistics is the study
of the collection, organization, presentation,
analysis, and interpretation of data.
There are many different kinds of surveys
going on everyday.
For example: election

Midterm Election 2014 (Nov. 4)

Red Republican
Blue - Democratic

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2014

Survey
Statistics
Japanese women &
Hong Kong men
live Longest in the
world

Someone drew a
conclusion that:
In Japan, men yell
at women while in
Hong Kong, men
are yelled by
women

Favorite Food Survey

A. Egg puffs

C. Turtle Herbal Jelly

E. Fish ball

B. Hong Kong-style milk tea

D. Wonton noodles

Foodtank, 2006.
Pickupcafe, 2008.
Nipic, 2011.

1st Egg puffs

2nd Hong Kong-style milk tea

3rd Turtle Herbal Jelly

Foodtank, 2006.
Pickupcafe, 2008.
Nipic, 2011.

Favorite Food Survey

Students
Choice

31431

21434

13732

13702

11047

1st Choice

2nd Choice

3rd Choice

4th Choice

5th Choice

A. 5 31431 + 4 (21434 + 13732 + 13702) = 352627

B. 5 21434 + 4 31431 + 3 13732 + 13702 + 2 11047 = 337290

C. 5 13732 + 3 21434 + 1 31431 + 13702 + 11047 =189142

D. 5 31431 + 4 11047 + 2 31431 + 13732 + 1 21434 = 313103

E. 5 11047 + 3 31431 + 2 21434 + 13732 + 1 13732 = 233592

Foodtank, 2006.
Pickupcafe, 2008.
Nipic, 2011.

Favorite Food Survey

Method 1: Turtle Herbal Jelly ranks the third if we
simply count the number of students that places it as
the most favorite food.
Method 2: Turtle Herbal Jelly ranks the fifth if we
use the scoring method as discussed in the last page.
Method 3: Turtle Herbal Jelly ranks the fifth if we
simply count the number of students that places it as
the least favorite food [61.5% (31431+13702+11047
out of 91346) rated it as the least favorite food].

Wikipeida, 2012.

Rating of CE Leung Chun-ying?

HKU POP 11/03/2014
based on a random sample of n = 998
Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of
support to the Chief Executive Leung Chung-ying, with
0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating
absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How
would you rate the Chief Executive Leung Chung-ying?
0100
0100
50

Wikipeida, 2012.

Rating of CE Leung Chun-ying?

Mean ratings = 47.4 (Failed?)
Median ratings = 50
Mode ratings = 50 (280/998 - the answer that
occurred most frequently, first runner up is 60 with
105/998, 2nd runner up is 40 with 92/998, 3rd runner
up is 0 with 91/998, , 8th runner up is 100)
Digit preference effect
Mode ratings = 0 (91/998 - after some
manipulation)
Another measure is proportion of rating a 50 or
above

Rating of CE Leung Chun-ying?

615/998 = 61.62% rated CE a 50 or above (or
668/998 = 66.9% rated CE a 50 or below)

with a 95% confidence interval given by

(58.6%, 64.6%)
Question:
Which measure do you think is more
appropriate to describe the rating of CY?
Mean, Median, Mode, Proportion?
The answer is very obvious!

Experimenters bias: Observer-expectancy effect

Pro CY
proportion (more than 61% people supported CY) is
more appropriate
or at least the median (50 absolutely a Pass)
Against CY
mean (47.5 absolute failure)
mode (0 total failure)
Scientifically comon people (ref?), a clear, objective
definition of the outcome variable is important!
For example: a perfect and SUCCESSFUL surgery, but
the patient died.

Experimenters bias: Observer-expectancy effect

Researchers cognitive bias may cause them to unconsciously
influence the participants of an experiment.
Confirmation bias can cause the experimenter to interpret the
results with a tendency to look for information that conforms to
their research hypothesis, and overlook information against it.
Examples:
Placebo effect patients given a placebo treatment will have a
perceived or actual improvement in medical condition.
Pygmalion effect, or Rosenthal effect, is the phenomenon
whereby the greater the expectation placed upon people, the
better they perform (education and social class research).

Summary of the Idealized Scientific Method

Observation
Hypothesis

(Generalization via induction)

Prediction

(Deduction)

Experimental
Test
Confirmation
or Falsification
Statistics is particularly useful and has been extremely successful in proving

Interpretations?
Do you know that the great majority of
people have more than the average
number of legs?
It's obvious really; amongst the 7
million people in Hong Kong there are
probably 1,000 people who have only
got one leg.
Therefore the average number of legs is
(10001) + (6,999,0002)
7,000,000

= 1.999857...

Since most people have 2 legs.......

Wikipeida, 2012.

What is Statistics?

Source: http://www.cafepress.com/+funny_math_statistics_poster,573965856

Interpretations?
It is proven that the celebration of birthdays is
healthy!

-- S. den Hartog, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Groningen

Weddingcake.name, 2012.
NickRay2, 2012.

Interpretations?

The Japanese eat very little fat and suffer fewer heart
attacks than the British or the Americans.
On the other hand, the French eat a lot of fat and
also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or the
Americans.
The Japanese drink very little red wine and suffer
fewer heart attacks than the British or the
Americans.
The Italians drink excessive amounts of red wine and
also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or the
Americans.
Conclusion: Eat and drink whatever you like! It's
speaking English that kills you.

Englishblog, 2012.

Correlation OR Causation?!
Statistics showed that 95% of young people
have low back and neck pain

Source:https://steynian.wordpress.com/category/preachery/

Source: http://www.cospt.net/?portfolio=low-back-and-neck-pain-assessment-and-treatment

The other 5% have no smart phone or computer

Source:http://alexandertechniquebrighton.blogspot.hk/2012/07/can-i-be-as-smart-as-my-smart-phone-or.html

Correlation OR Causation?
Eddy has low back and neck pain!
What is the implication?
There is a 95% chance that Eddy is a young
man.

What is statistics?
The mathematical foundations of statistics were
laid in the 17th century with the development of
probability theory by Blaise Pascal and
Pierre de Fermat.
Probability theory arose from the study of
games of chance because of a gambler.

Gamblers problem
The well-known gamblers problem:
http://youtu.be/_hLbnscj8UQ
Time : Year 1654
Place : France
Person : C. de Mr

Probability
Game 1 : Mr bets even money that he would throw
at least one six in four throws of a die (i.e., Mr will win
if at least one six turns out in four throws).
Game 2 : Mr bets even money that a double-six
would appear at least once if he were given twenty-four
throws of two dice.
Mr believed that these two games are indifferent
according to the following argument :

Game 1
Game 2

No. of possible
outcomes
6
6 x 6 = 36

No. of throws
4
6 x 4 = 24

Probability
Mrs calculation
Pr "6" =

1
6

4
6

Pr "6" 4 = =
Pr "6" =

1
36

2
3

Pr 1 "6" 24 =

24
36

2
3

Probability
Mr suffered tremendous loss and posed the problem to a young
French mathematician named B. Pascal.
Pascal had discussed this problem with another mathematician, P.
de Fermat.
Through their discussions they not only came up with a convincing
and self-consistent solution to this problem
4
5
= 0.51775
Pr(Mr wins in game 1) = 1
6
35
Pr(Mr wins in game 2) = 1
36

24

= 0.4914

Therefore Mr had more advantage in game 1 than in game 2.

but also developed concepts that continue to be fundamental in
to this day.

Probability
To most people, probability is a loosely
defined term employed in everydays
conversations to indicate the measure of ones
belief in the occurrence of a future event.
In the U.S. and many other countries, the
weather report even forecasts the
probabilities of precipitation for the next day.

Probability
Definition 1: A random experiment is a
process leading to at least two possible
outcomes with uncertainty as to which will
occur.
Examples are:
(a) Tossing a coin;
(b) Tossing a die;
(c) Asking a student on whether s/he likes this
course or not;
(d) Rise or fall of todays HSI.

Probability
Definition 2: The possible outcomes of a
random experiment are called the basic
outcomes, and the set of all basic outcomes is
called the sample space, S.
Examples:
(a) S = { H, T };
(b) S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 };
(c) S = { Yes, So So, No };
(d) S = { up, down }.

Probability
Definition 3: An event is a set of basic
outcomes, or a collection of some basic
outcomes from the sample space S, and it is
said to occur if the random experiment gives
rise to one of its constituent basic outcomes.
Obtaining an even number is an event in the
die tossing experiment as it consists the basic
outcomes {2, 4, 6}.

Example 1
(Tossing coins) What is the sample space for the
experiment of tossing a fair coin once, twice and
three times?

For tossing a coin once, 1 = ,

For tossing a coin twice, S2 = , , ,
For tossing a coin three times,
3 = {, , , , , , , }

Axioms of Probability
1. If A is any event in the sample space S, then
0.0 P(A) 1.0.
2. Let A be an event in S, and let denote the
basic outcomes (basic outcomes are mutually
exclusive), then A = A ( )
Or
3. = 1.

= =1 ( ) .

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

1) Classical Probability
Basic outcomes that have the same probability
of occurrence are called equally likely outcomes.
The classical probability rule is applied to
compute the probabilities of events for an
experiment with all the basic outcomes are
equally likely (say, tossing a coin, Mark Six) .
Example 2 : Find the probability of obtaining a head and
the probability of obtaining a tail in one toss of a coin.
Example 3 : Find the probability of obtaining an even
number in one roll of a die.

Example 4
(Rolling dice) When you roll two balanced dice together,
you can get 36 equally likely outcomes, as shown below.
What is the probability of
(a) obtaining a sum of 2;
P a sum of 2 =

1
= 0.027778
36

(b) obtaining a sum of 6;

5
P a sum of 6 =
= 0.138889
36

(c) obtaining the same number?

Figures from:
Introductory Statistics. 9th ed. Neil A. Weiss. Boston: Pearson, 2012. P147

6
1
P the same number =
= = 0.16667
36 6

Example 5
(Drawing cards) A card is selected at random from a deck of
52 cards.

Figures from:
Introductory Statistics. 9th ed. Neil A. Weiss. Boston: Pearson, 2012. p153,154

What is the probability of

(a) drawing a diamond;
13 1
P drawing a diamond =
= = 0.25
52 4

Cont. Example 5
(b) drawing an Ace;
4
1
P drawing an Ace =
=
= 0.076923
52 13
(c) drawing a face card (J/Q/K)?
Let E denotes the event of drawing a face card in a deck or
cards,
34
3
P E =
=
= 0.23077
52
13

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

2) Relative Frequency Concept of Probability
If an experiment is repeated (under the same
conditions) n times and an event A is observed times,
then the relative frequency concept of probability is
given as

= .

Example 6 : Among the first 10000 consecutive deliveries

in Hong Kong this year, 4888 of them are male. Hence
( ) =

4888
10000

= 0.4888.

Hence, probability is an abstraction of relative frequency or

relative frequency is a realization of probability.

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

3) Subjective Probability
Neither equally likely outcomes nor the
experiments are repeatable. It is based on the
individual's own judgment, experience,
information and belief
(say, horse racing, NBA games)