A solution proposal using GA for a international trade multivariate problem

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A solution proposal using GA for a international trade multivariate problem

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Authors

Ricardo Ivn Valencia Gonzlez

Abstract

Ppolom is a solution model to find the best conditions to import products into Mxico, taking into

consideration the foreign trade process and Mexican legislation. Solved using Darwin an

implementation for Genetic Algorithms; GA helps solve this multivariate optimization problem

Keywords

Genetic algorithm. Multivariate Optimization. Stochastic Search. Foreign Trade. External commerce.

Introduction

estamos tan lejos los unos de los otros Julia Navarro

Today, one of the most important factors of

globalization is foreign trade. Thanks to this, we have

been able not only to meet the needs of people around

the world, but their quality of life has increased

significantly. Trade is considered an art that has been

perfected over the centuries, but remains a long,

complicated process and definitely not everyone can

understand. Constantly changing laws, treaties and

agreements impedes making accurate and fast decisions

both for companies and for individuals. This solution

model poses an automated method in which to be able

many areas, both for theoretical purposes as well as a

reliable tool on fields as diverse as manufacturing,

medicine, transportation, stock market, among many

others. One of the key advantages of using Evolutionary

Techniques is their natural capacity to deal with the

problem of local solutions for problems with a wider

scope,

non-linear

solutions

and

multivariate

Algorithms (GA) use the concept of stochastic search

developing population of possible solutions instead of

the classic one solution at a time approach of other

optimization models (Amouzgar, 2012).

models, such as the mentioned Stochastic Search and

Multivariate Optimization.

Proposal

set. All this is then used for the fitness function, giving a

Development

To make this a self-contained, manageable

project, an in-house GA framework was developed,

named Darwin, using Python. It uses a standard

Crossover Operation, a Rank Selector for the next

JSON files explained before. This numeric value is then

calculated as follows:

Given the country (c):

o

selected product

analysis. The setup is simple: define labels and a list of

general configuration for the GA (population size,

(regular_t)

After these configuration is done Darwin follow the

same flow as other GA:

products import quota (q_delta)

last generation.

evolves are the selection of a country to import from,

trade_t as tax.

(, ) = + _ + ( _)

This formula does not represent a measurable value in terms of money

Results

In general, Ppolom does a decent job finding the

best set of conditions to select a country candidate for

got the results:

Country

United States

Units

2,000

393024

393024

of being many countries, it selects the closest one and

the one offering the best tax discount for the given

FTA and distances. Because is an important product for

product.

For an example run, the next configuration was

used:

90718,474 kg; countries part of the Centro Amrica

Population size

200

Crossover rate

0.6

Mutation rate

0.02

Generations

500

Final Words

With product 1001.90.01 which is the Harmonized

System code for Wheat, this resulted on:

as it was developed on a time constraint. A Wheel

Country

Guatemala

Units

7,000

477059

477059

can be adjusted for better performance into finding a

with a FTA, but Ppolom choses a near country, so

Guatemala was selected as best option. Both fitness for

can be changed or modified; a comparison is needed to

decide this.

best individual and the avg fitness are the same because

quantity for a specific company or market. All this can be

made on the Darwin configuration.

difficulties gathering the relevant data, because the

Mexican legislation is changing all the time and there is

not (or at least is was not found) a reliable source of

information; most of the data used on this project was

on JSON files built by hand. Because of this, some

simplification on import taxes and product selection was

done to reduce the scope of the project. A real tool based

on this model should include all products from the

Harmonized System.

The full code can be found at the public

repository:

https://github.com/avatharBot/ppolom.

References

Amouzgar, K. (2012). Multi-Objective Optimization using

Genetic Algorithms. Jnkping: Jnkping School

of Engineering.

Candido, S. J. (2011). Optimization for Stochastic Partially

Observed Systems. Illinois: University of Illinois .

Rangel-Merino, A., Lpez-Bonilla, J. L., & Linares y

Miranda, R. (2005). Optimization Method based

on Genetic Algorithms. Distrito Federal: Instituto

Politcnico Nacional.

Simon, M., & Sean, P. (1999). An overview of genetic

algorithms for the solution of optimization

problems. Computers in Higher Education

Economics Review.

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