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PROSPEK DAN TANTANGAN

PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA
Faisal Basri
2 Desember 2013

Bagian I
Ancaman Middle
Middle--Income Trap

Indonesia: pendapatan perkapita


Gross National Income per capita,
Atlas method (current US$)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Gross national income per capita


Current US$, 2012
Singapore
Hong Kong
Korea
Taiwan
Russia
Brazil
Malaysia
Mexico
South Africa
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
India
Vietnam
Lao PDR
Cambodia

47,210
36,560
22,670
16,392
12,700
11,630
9,800
9,740
7,610
5,210
3,420
2,470
1,530

US$ 12,616

1,400

High income

1,260
880

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Ciri--ciri berpotensi alami middleCiri


middle-income trap
Investment to GDP ratio rendah
Pertumbuhan industri manufaktur rendah
Diversifikasi industri terbatas
Kondisi pasar kerja buruk

Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)


Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Philippines

China

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

15

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Composition of gross fixed capital formation


2010

2011

2012

74.3

72.8

71.3

Domestic machinery

2.5

2.3

2.2

Imported machinery

13.5

15.1

15.6

Domestic transport

1.4

1.4

1.5

Imported transport

4.7

5.0

5.9

Others

3.6

3.4

3.5

Building

Source: BPS.

GDP growth by sector


Sector

2010 2011 2012 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13

1. Agriculture

3.0

3.3

4.0

4.3

3.7

4.8

2.0

3.6

3.2

3.0

2. Mining

3.6

1.4

1.5

2.8

3.1

-0.1

0.5

-0.2

-1.2

1.6

3. Manufacturing

4.7

6.1

5.7

5.7

5.4

6.4

6.2

5.9

5.8

4.9

4. Utilities

5.3

4.4

6.4

6.2

6.2

5.6

7.2

6.6

6.6

4.0

5. Construction

7.0

6.7

7.5

7.4

7.4

8.0

7.8

7.0

6.9

6.2

6. Trade & hospitality

8.7

9.2

8.1

8.3

8.9

6.9

7.8

6.5

6.5

6.0

13.4 10.7 10.0

10.3

10.1

10.5

9.6

10.0

11.5

10.5

7. Transport & Comm.


8. Finance

5.7

6.9

7.2

6.3

7.0

7.4

7.7

8.4

8.1

8.1

9. Other Services

6.0

6.7

5.2

5.5

5.7

4.4

5.3

6.5

4.5

5.6

GDP/Total

6.2

6.5

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.2

6.1

6.0

5.8

5.6

Sources: BPS.

Low quality of growth, 20002000-2013


Percent

10
Non-tradable

8
6

GDP

4
2

Tradable

First semester (Jan-Jun)


Source: BPS.

Peranan industri manufaktur terus merosot


Percent of GDP
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22

Source: BPS.

Bagian II
Peran Negara Loyo

Population, GDP/capita, and structure of GDP, 2012

Country
China
India
Indonesia
Brazil
USA
Japan
Germany
UK
Korea
Philippines
Vietnam
Thailand
Malaysia

Population

GDP per capita

(million)
1,351
1,237
247
199
314
128
82
63
50
97
89
67
29

(current US$)
6,188
1,489
3,557
11,340
49,965
46,720
41,514
38,514
22,590
2,587
1,596
5,480
10,381

GDP components (%)


Cp
36
60
57
62
72
60
58
66
54
74
64
56
49

Cg
14
12
9.0
21
17
20
19
22
16
11
5
14
14

I
46
30
33
18
15
21
18
14
27
19
28
29
26

X
31
24
24
13
14
15
52
32
57
31
90
75
87

M
27
32
26
14
18
16
46
34
53
34
90
74
76

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

General govt final consumption expenditure


(average 2005-2010, % of GDP)
General government final consumption expenditure (formerly general
government consumption) includes all government current expenditures
for purchases of goods and services (including compensation of
employees). It also includes most expenditures on national defense and
security, but excludes government military expenditures that are part of
government capital formation.

Source: World Bank.

Indonesia tax ratio


Tax ratio (tax revenues/GDP), percent
14.0

13.0

12.0

11.0

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

10.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance.

Tax ratio in selected countries, 2010


Tax revenues as % of GDP

Sources: world Bank.

Peran pemerintah makin loyo dalam


penyediaan public goods

Source: IMF, Indonesia: selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 12/278, September 2012.

Electric power consumption (kWh per capita)

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Bagian III
Kualitas SDM dan Ketenagakerjaan

Human development index

Pada tahun 2030, HDI


bisa mencapai tingkat
seperti Malaysia
sekarang.

Sources: UNDP, Human Development Report 2013.

HDI in selected countries, 2012 (n = 186)


Inequality-adjusted HDI
HDI
Rank Country
3
28
45
71
85
91
92
101
103
108
114
121
127
136
138
138
161

United States
Czech Republic
Argentina
Venezuela
Brazil
Colombia
Sri Lanka
China
Thailand
Bolivia
Philippines
Indonesia
Viet Nam
India
Lao, PDR
Cambodia
Haiti

HDI
Value

Value

Overall
loss (%)

0.937
0.873
0.811
0.748
0.730
0.719
0.715
0.699
0.690
0.675
0.654
0.629
0.617
0.554
0.543
0.543
0.456

0.821
0.826
0.653
0.549
0.531
0.519
0.607
0.543
0.543
0.444
0.524
0.514
0.531
0.392
0.409
0.402
0.273

12.4
5.4
19.5
26.6
27.2
27.8
15.1
22.4
21.3
34.2
19.9
18.3
14.0
29.3
24.7
25.9
40.2

Change Adjusted
Rank
in rank
-13
9
-8
-17
-12
-11
11
0
0
-12
4
3
14
1
4
3
-7

16
19
53
88
97
102
81
101
103
120
110
118
113
135
134
135
168

Sources: UNDP, Human Development Report 2013.

10

Health expenditure, 2011


United States
France
Germany
Switzerland
Sweden
Norway
Australia
Brazil
South Africa
Israel
Vietnam
Turkey
Russia
Cambodia
China
Timor-Leste
Thailand
Philippines
India
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Myanmar
Qatar
South Sudan

Health expenditure, total (% of GDP)


Total health expenditure is the sum of
public and private health expenditure. It
covers the provision of health services
(preventive and curative), family planning
activities, nutrition activities, and
emergency aid designated for health but
does not include provision of water and
sanitation.
0

12

15

18

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Selected basic health indicators


Country
Brazil
China
Thailand
South Africa
Malaysia
Indonesia
Vietnam
Sri Lanka
Philippines
India

% Age 5
are under
weight
1.7
3.8
7.0
8.7
12.9
18.4
20.2
21.1
21.6
42.5

Under 5
mortality
rate
19
18
13
57
6
35
23
17
29
63

Maternal
mortality
ratio
56
37
48
300
29
220
59
35
99
200

Malaria Tuberculosis
0.1
42
0.0
75
0.4
124
0.2
993
0.1
81
3.2
187
0.1
199
0.0
66
0.2
270
1.9
181

1. % Age 5 are under weight: Percentage of children under age 5 falling two standard deviations or more below the median weight-for-age of the
reference population, 2010 (UNDP)
2. Under 5 mortality: probability of dying between birth and exactly age 5, expressed per 1,000 live births, 2010 (UNDP)
3. Maternal mortality ratio: ratio of the number of maternal deaths to the number of live births in a given year, expressed per 100,000 live births,
2010 (UNDP)
4. Malaria: deaths due to malaria expressed per 100,000 people, 2008 (UNDP)
5. Tuberculosis: estimated rate per 100,000 population, 2011 (WHO)

11

23

Pekerja dan penganggur menurut pendidikan


Agustus 2011

Sumber: BPS.

12

Profile of workforce by job status

Source: World Bank, presented by Shubham Chaudhuri at Kompas Economic Panel Discussion, June 21, 2012.

R&D expenditure
(% of GDP)

Source: World Bank.

13

68.2
64.8
63.5
61.8
61.2
60.5
59.9
58.7
58.7
57.7
56.4
56.2
56.0
53.9
51.7
45.9
45.4
44.4
41.1
39.5
39.3
37.9
37.7
37.4
36.9
36.6
35.7
33.9
29.0
28.1
16.8

Global innovation index 2012 (n=141)

Source: INSEAD, The Global Innovation Index 2012.

Bagian IV
Perkuat Jantung Perekonomian

Switzerland (1)
Sweden (2)
Singapore (3)
Finland (4)
UK (5)
Netherlands (6)
Denmark (7)
Hong Kong (8)
Ireland (9)
USA (10)
Norway (14)
Germany (15)
Israel (17)
Korea (21)
Japan (25)
Malaysia (32)
China (34)
UAE (37)
Bahrain (41)
Oman (47)
Saudi Arabia (48)
Russian Federation
Brunei Darussalam
South Africa (54)
Thailand (57)
Brazil (58)
India (64)
Viet Nam (76)
Philippines (95)
Indonesia (100)
Sudan (141)

14

Financial inclusion index:

Financial deepening
Indonesia has yet to optimize its domestic resources

Source: Solana (WEF) based on World Bank dan IMF

15

The financial development index (1)


Country
Hong Kong SAR
United States
Singapore
Malaysia
Korea
China
South Africa
Brazil
Thailand
India
Russian Fed
Mexico
Turkey
Philippines
Vietnam
Indonesia
Venezuela
Nigeria

2011 rank 2010 rank


(n = 60)
(n = 58)
1
2
4
16
18
19
29
30
35
36
39
41
43
44
50
51
59
60

4
1
3
17
24
22
32
31
34
37
40
43
42
50
46
51
55
57

2011 score
(1-7)

Change
in score

Banking
Rank

Banking
score

5.16
5.15
4.97
4.24
4.13
4.12
3.64
3.61
3.32
3.29
3.18
3.16
3.14
3.13
2.98
2.92
2.44
2.44

+0.12
+0.03
-0.08
+0.04
+0.13
+0.08
+0.11
+0.09
-0.04
+0.05
-0.04
+0.09
-0.02
+0.17
-0.05
+0.02
-0.12
+0.03

3
21
16
15
20
9
33
41
31
43
57
47
34
36
29
53
58
56

5.43
4.19
4.40
4.49
4.21
4.92
3.53
3.31
3.70
3.12
2.35
2.82
3.48
3.41
3.91
2.69
2.34
2.43

Source: World Economic Forum, The Financial Development Report 2010.

The financial development index (2)


Country
United States
Singapore
Japan
Germany
Malaysia
China
Korea
South Africa
Brazil
Thailand
India
Russian Fed.
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Venezuela
Nigeria

2010 rank 2009 rank


(n = 57) (n = 55)
1
4
9
13
17
22
24
31
32
34
37
40
46
50
51
55
56
57

3
4
9
12
22
26
23
32
34
35
38
40
45
50
48
54
55
52

2010 score
(1-7)
5.12
5.03
4.67
4.49
4.20
4.03
4.00
3.53
3.53
3.37
3.24
3.21
3.03
2.97
2.90
2.55
2.55
2.43

Private credit Bank deposits


to GDP (%)
to GDP (%)
211
91
95
102
96
n.a.
90
162
54
78
48
39
90
27
23
36
27
24

78
113
183
104
100
145
61
63
61
84
63
31
74
46
34
50
31
21

Source: World Economic Forum, The Financial Development Report 2010.

16

Domestic credit provided by banking sector


Domestic credit provided by the banking sector includes all credit to various sectors on a
gross basis, with the exception of credit to the central government, which is net. The
banking sector includes monetary authorities and deposit money banks, as well as other
banking institutions where data are available (including institutions that do not accept
transferable deposits but do incur such liabilities as time and savings deposits). Examples
of other banking institutions are savings and mortgage loan institutions and building and
loan associations.

Source: World Bank.

Size of local currency bonds market (1)


% of GDP, June 2013

250
200

18

150
100

200
77

43
33

16

53

60

32

50
49

62

40

20

13

35

33

Government bonds

5
32

0
14

11

Corporate bonds

Source: Asian Development Bank.

17

Size of total local currency bonds market (2)


% of GDP
250
217

December 2000

June 2013

200

150
126
105

102

100

86
74

76

73

72

48

50

46
35

27

31

37

37

17

15

14

Source: Asian Development Bank.

Stock market capitalization


Percent of GDP

180
160
159
140
120

137
125

129

100
80

89
78

60

74

40
20

67

60
49 46

32

46

32

24

16

2000

15

2011

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

18

Bagian V
Perlindungan dan Sistem Jaminan Sosial

Globalization index, 2012


Globalization Index

Economic Globalization

Social Globalization

1. Belgium
1. Singapore
1. Cyprus
2. Ireland
2. Luxembourg
2. Singapore
3. Netherlands
3. Ireland
3.Ireland
4. Austria
4. Malta
4. Austria
5. Singapore
5.Netherlands
5. Belgium
6.Denmark
6. Belgium
6. Switzerland
7. Sweden
7. Hungary
7.Netherlands
8. Portugal
8. Estonia
8. Canada
9. Hungary
9. Bahrain
9. Denmark
10.Switzerland
10. Sweden
10.France
12. UK
11. UAE
12. UK
21. Australia
12. Denmark
14. Norway
22. Germany
25. Malaysia
15. Germany
27. Malaysia
26. Qatar
17. Sweden
32. UAE
29. UK
25. UAE
34. USA
41. Norway
27. USA
39. Qatar
48. Germany
34. Malaysia
48. Russia
52. Thailand
47. Russia
54. South Africa
66. South Africa
56. Qatar
56. Japan
73. Viet Nam
64. Oman
57. Thailand
76. Cambodia
90. China
73. China
82. USA
93. South Africa
76. Brazil
88. Indonesia
95. Thailand
88. Philippines
97. Russia
118. Brazil
90. Indonesia
101. Philippines
127. Philippines
107. India
104. Brazil
144. India
118. Cuba
109. China
147. Indonesia
126. Viet Nam
128. India
165. Viet Nam
205. Somalia
201. Timor-Leste
205. Somalia
Sources: KOF Swiss Economic Institute, KOF Index of Globalization, March 2013.

Political Globalization
1. Italy
2. France
3. Belgium
4. Spain
5. Austria
6. UK
7. Sweden
8.Brazil
9. Portugal
10. Egypt
11. Denmark
13. Netherlands
14. Switzerland
17. Germany
18. India
19. USA
20. Norway
34. South Africa
39. Indonesia
43. Philippines
44. China
45. Russia
47. Malaysia
59. Thailand
73. Qatar
109. Cuba
118. Kuwait
134. UAE
135. Viet Nam

19

Rezim perdagangan Indonesia sudah sangat bebas


Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)
(2011 or latest data available)
United States (2011)
Indonesia (2011)
Turkey (2011)
Bolivia (2011)
Qatar (2009)
Malaysia (2009)
China (2011)
South Africa (2011)
Philippines (2010)
Thailand (2009)
Russia (2011)
Argentina (2011)
Vietnam (2010)
Brazil (2011)
India (2009)
Venezuela (2011)

1.6
2.6
2.7
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.1
4.5
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.6
5.7
7.9
8.2
8.6

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators


http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS

Aras tariff (bea


(bea masuk
masuk))
Versi Kemenkeu

Versi Bank Dunia

1995: 15,48%
1998: 9,24%
2007: 7,81%
2011: 7,56%

1995: 10,8%
1999: 6,1%
2007: 3,9%
2011: 2,6%

World Bank: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)
Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product
import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized
System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard
International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import
weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem
equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import
weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade
(Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are
averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is unavailable,
the most favored nation rate is used instead.

20

Social protection index (n=35)

Sources: Asian Development Bank, The Social Protection Index: Assessing Results for Asia and the Pacific, 2013.

3 Pillars of social protection


1. Social insurance uses contributory schemes to help people
respond to common risks, such as illness, old age, and
unemployment. Its major components are health insurance,
pensions, and unemployment insurance.
2. Social assistance provides unrequited transfers to groups, such
as the poor, who cannot qualify for insurance or would receive
inadequate benefits from such a source. The major components of
social assistance are cash or in-kind transfers, child welfare,
assistance to the elderly, health assistance, disability benefits, and
disaster relief.
3. Active labor market programs help people to secure
employment. Their major components are skill development and
training programs and special work programs, such as cash- or
food-for-work programs. This report categorizes passive labor
market programs, such as unemployment insurance or severance
payments, as forms of social insurance.

21

Year of introduction of social insurance


Country
Belgium
Netherlands
France
Italy
Germany
Ireland
U.K.
Denmark
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Austria
Switzerland
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
U.S.A.

Industrial
accident
1903
1901
1898
1898
1871
1897
1897
1898
1894
1901
1895
1887
1881
1902
1900
1930
1930

Health Pension
1894
1929
1898
1886
1883
1911
1911
1892
1909
1891
1963
1888
1911
1945
1938
1971
--

UnemployFamily
ment allowance

1900
1913
1895
1898
1889
1908
1908
1891
1936
1913
1937
1927
1946
1909
1898
1927
1935

1920
1916
1905
1919
1927
1911
1911
1907
1906
1934
1917
1920
1924
1945
1938
1940
1935

1930
1940
1932
1936
1954
1944
1945
1952
1946
1947
1948
1921
1952
1941
1926
1944
--

Sources: Christopher Pierson, Beyond the Welfare State, 3rd edition. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2006, p.110.

Akumulasi Iuran Jamkes


Asumsi: 32 jt pekerja sektor formal; gaji Rp 1,5 juta/bulan, iuran
5%, pertumbuhan gaji 10%, pekerja 6%
Tahun
Th 1
Th 2
Th 3
Th 4
Th 5
Th 6
Th 7
Th 8
Th 9
Th 10

Rp miliar/th
28.800
33.581
39.155
45.655
53.234
62.070
72.374
84.388
98.397
114.731

Akumulasi
Rp miliar
28.800
62.381
101.536
147.191
200.425
262.495
334.869
419.257
517.654
632.385

Akumulasi Iuran:
Memastikan
ketersediaan
dana
Kepastian
investor faskes,
alkes dan
medical supplies
Memastikan
pasien

Sumber: Hasbullah Thabrany, Dampak Ekonomi Pelaksanaan SJSN, disajikan pada


Round Table Discussion GP Farmasi 27 April 2010.

22

Jaminan hari tua/


tua/pensiun (iuran 6%)
Tahun
Th 1
Th 2
Th 3
Th 4
Th 5
Th 6
Th 7
Th 8
Th 9
Th 10

Iuran/th
Rp miliar
34.560
40.297
46.986
54.786
63.880
74.485
86.849
101.266
118.076
137.677

Akumulasi
Rp miliar
34.560
74.857
121.843
176.629
240.509
314.994
401.843
503.109
621.185
758.862

Jaminan hari
tua/Pensiun
merupakan
sumber dana
investasi
jangka
panjang yang
luar biasa
besar.

Sumber: Hasbullah Thabrany, Dampak Ekonomi Pelaksanaan SJSN, disajikan pada


Round Table Discussion GP Farmasi 27 April 2010.

Bagian VI
Kembali ke Jati Diri

23

Keunikan Indonesia

Negara maritim

the archipelago economy

Untuk membangun Indonesia menjadi negara besar, negara kuat, negara makmur, negara damai yang merupakan
National Building bagi negara Indonesia, maka negara dapat menjadi kuat jika dapat menguasai lautan. Untuk
menguasai lautan kita harus menguasai armada yang seimbang.
(Ir. Soekarno dalam National Maritime Convention I (NMC), 1963)

24

Price disparities (Rupiah)


Region

Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt

East Jawa

4,250

3,606

6,000

4,150

1,600

West Kalimantan

4,400

4,000

5,800

4,500

2,450

East Kalimantan

4,500

4,000

6,500

4,500

2,000

South Sulawesi

4,400

3,500

6,500

4,500

2,000

East Nusa Tenggara

4,200

4,500

5,800

6,300

2,000

Merauke

5,000

7,000

7,000

6,670

3,000

Nabire

6,000

10,000 11,000

11,000

4,000

Paniai

18,000

7,000

8,000

7,500

8,000

Source: Ministry of Trade.

Mana lebih murah?


murah?

Jeruk Medan, Indonesia

Jeruk Mandarin, China

25

Prices of oranges
Prices were measured in a supermarket in Jakarta

Jeruk MedanRp. 20,000 per kg

Jeruk China..Rp. 17,000 per kg

WHY IS THIS THE CASE?

This explains why oranges from Medan are


more expensive to some extent.

26

Fakta lain yang membuat miris

Container Shipment cost:


Padang Jakarta
= US$600
Jakarta Singapore = US$185

Cement in Papua is 20
times more expensive
than in Jakarta because
of shipping costs
Source: R.J. Linos presentatatiom, March 2011.

Jarak ekonomi makin jauh

Source: R.J. Linos presentatatiom, March 2011.

27

The sea unites Indonesia

Logistics performance index, 2012, n=155


Country

LPI LPI
Infra- International Logistic Tracking & Timerank score Customs structure shipments competence tracing liness

Singapore

4.13

4.10

4.15

3.99

4.07

4.07

4.39

Hong Kong

4.12

3.97

4.12

4.18

4.08

4.09

4.28

China

26

3.52

3.25

3.61

3.46

3.47

3.52

3.80

Malaysia

29

3.49

3.28

3.43

3.40

3.45

3.54

3.86

Thailand

38

3.18

2.96

3.08

3.21

2.98

3.18

3.63

Brazil

45

3.13

2.51

3.07

3.12

3.12

3.42

3.55

India

46

3.08

2.77

2.87

2.98

3.14

3.09

3.58

Philippines

52

3.02

2.62

2.80

2.97

3.14

3.30

3.30

Vietnam

53

3.00

2.65

2.68

3.14

2.68

3.16

3.64

Indonesia

59

2.94

2.53

2.54

2.97

2.85

3.12

3.61

Cambodia

101

2.56

2.30

2.20

2.61

2.50

2.77

2.95

Lao, PDR

109

2.50

2.38

2.40

2.40

2.49

2.49

2.82

Myanmar

129

2.37

2.24

2.10

2.47

2.42

2.34

2.59

Source: World Bank, Logistic Performance Index: LPI Results 2012 (http://lpisurvey.worldbank.org/)

28

Public and customers perception improved

Source: JR Lino presentation (IPC) based on World Bank, January 2013.

But. the solution is this!!!

29

Bagian VII
Momentum Akselerasi

Penduduk Indonesia mirip Jepang tahun 1950


Jepang

Indonesia

5%

66%

15-49
= 55%

29%

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)

30

Maximizing opportunities:
Indonesias remaining demographic dividend
90.0

Dependency ratio
(%)

80.0

80.0

70.0

70.0
Working age: 15 to
64 (%)

% of population

60.0

60.0

50.0

50.0

40.0

40.0

Children: 14 and
below (%)

30.0

30.0

20.0

20.0
Elderly: above 64
(%)

10.0

10.0

0.0

Dependency ratio:
children and elderly to working age (%)

90.0

0.0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Source: World Bank, Indonesia economic update: Near-term issues and looking ahead to 2012, March 2011.

USD billion

Central government debt outstanding


250
200
68.5

150

63.8

58.8

140.8

140.6

68.7
65.0

100

61.1

63.7

68.9

68.6

58.9

62.0

63.5

73.3

76.6

71.3

66.7

63.1

50
68.4

62.3

70.5

82.3

85.3

104.2

118.4

131.0

82.8

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Securities

Loans

* August
Source: Bank Indonesia.

31

Government debt outstanding


2,500
2,000
633

1,500
1,000

617

621

979

1,064

1,118

2009

2010

2011

Securities

Loans

730

611

586

559

500
743

803

906

2006

2007

2008

1,359

0
2012

Source: Kementerian Keuangan

Composition of government debt


(percent)

Source: Bank Indonesia.

32

Continued increasing proportion of foreign


ownership of government securities
Foreign ownership of domestic government
securities by maturity (percent)

Holders of tradable domestic


government securities (percent)

* October
Source: Bank Indonesia.

Government debt to GDP ratio


percent
120
97.9

100

77.0

80

67.4
61.3

60

47.1

41.9

40

56.4
39.0

32.3

35.2 33.1

28.4 26.1
24.4 24.0 23.4

20
0

* September
Source: World Bank for 1990-2000, and Bank Indonesia and Ministry of Finance for 2001-2012.

33

Central government gross debt ratio

Sources: ADB, Asian Development Outlook 2012 Update, October 2012..

Indonesias sovereign rating by 5 agencies

Rating Agency

Latest
Rating Awarded Date Outlook Note

Moody's

Baa3

Nov. 22, 2012

Stable

IG

Fitch

BBB-

Nov. 15, 2013

Stable

IG

Rating and Investment

BBB-

Oct. 11, 2013

Stable

IG

Japan Credit Rating Agency

BBB-

July 22, 2013

Stable

IG

Standard & Poor's

BB+

May 2, 2013

Stable

-1 IG

IG = Investment Grader.;
-1 IG = one notch below investment grade.
Sources: Bank Indonesia.

34

Terima Kasih
Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com
Twitter: @faisalbasri
Infografis: visuallyconomic.com
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri
Blog: faisalbasri01.wordpress.com

Postur pemerintahan
Tak perlu ada Menko.
Bappenas jadi westwing
Likuidasi kementerian: pernanan perempuan, pemuda &
olahraga, kemensos.
Reposisi kementerian: agama, kominfo, kemenkeu (pajak
dan bea cukai dikeluarkan)
Kemenlu

35