Topic : Confidence Interval for the Variance

Normally Distributed Population

Subject : Math 204 Probability and Statistics
Reporter : Arvin P. Tolentino
Professor : Sonia A. Arenillo, Ph.D.

Confidence Interval for the Variance of a Normally Distributed Population

Measures of dispersion

E( ) = when E( ) = when
sampling is with sampling is without
replacement replacement.

To understand replacement we can consider the New Jersey Pick 3 daily lottery.
The Pick 3 lottery is a game of chance in which they draw three balls from 0 to 9,
forming the daily number. If it were done with one lottery machine, the first ball
up would have to be put back into the machine so that it has a chance of being
drawn again. To solve this, the lottery commission uses three machines, each
with 10 balls numbered 0 through 9.

The New Jersey Pick 6 is a game of chance drawn without replacement. The
machine has balls numbered 1 through 49 and six balls are selected
sequentially. As they roll out they become part of the six-digit number but are not
replaced. That way, any given number that is drawn cannot be drawn a second
time.

Effects of large population size

When N is large, N and N-1 are approximately equal so and will be

approximately equal. These results justify why can be used to compute the
sample variance.
Interval estimate of a population variance

The value of is used as a point estimator of the population variance, .

Confidence intervals of are based on the sampling distribution of (n-1) / .

If samples of size n are drawn from a normally distributed population, this
quantity has a distribution known as the chi-square distribution with n-1 degrees
of freedom. The assumption that the sample is drawn from a normally distributed
population is crucial.

Confidence interval on the distribution

The 100(1- ) confidence interval for the distribution of (n-1) / is a two-

tailed distribution between and . This interval is given by

Confidence interval for and

From the sampling distribution of (n-1) / the sampling distribution of is

derived. The formula is:

Confidence interval for

To get the 100(1- ) confidence interval for , the population standard deviation,
the square root of each term is taken. The result is the formula below.
Example

In a study on cholesterol levels a sample of 12 men and women was chosen.

The plasma cholesterol levels (mmol/L) of the subjects were as follows: 6.0, 6.4,
7.0, 5.8, 6.0, 5.8, 5.9, 6.7, 6.1, 6.5, 6.3, and 5.8. We assume that these 12
subjects constitute a simple random sample of a population of similar subjects.
We wish to estimate the variance of the plasma cholesterol levels with a 95
percent confidence interval.

Solution

(1) Given

6.0 6.4 7.0 5.8 6.0 5.8

5.9 6.7 6.1 6.5 6.3 5.8

Estimate the variance with a 95% confidence interval.

(2) Calculations

• Value of
s = .3918680978

• Values of from table

= 21.920

= 3.816

Calculation of the confidence interval

Discussion: The value of from the data can be used as a point estimate of the

population variance, . We say that the population variance is estimated to be .

391868. From the calculation we are 95% confident that the true population
variance is between .1966 and 1.130.

Example 2

A container of car antifreeze is suppose to hold 3785 mL of the liquid. Realizing

that fluctuations are inevitable, the quality control manager wants to be quite sure
that the standard deviation is less than 30 mL. Otherwise, some containers
would overflow while others would not have enough of the coolant. She
randomly selects a sample, with the results given below. Use these results to
construct the 99% confidence interval for true value of σ. Does this confidence
interval suggest that the fluctuations are at an acceptable level? Assume that the
distribution of fill amounts for the containers of antifreeze is a normal distribution.

3761 3861 3769 3772 3675 3861

3888 3819 3788 3800 3720 3748
3753 3821 3811 3740 3740 3839

n = 18 x = 3787.0 s = 55.4

Solution

Based on sample data, the mean of x = 3787.0 appears to be acceptable

because it is so close to 3785. However, note what happens as we construct the
99% confidence interval for σ2 and σ. With a sample size of n = 18, we have
n – 1 = 17 degrees of freedom. Because we want 99% confidence, we let α =
0.01 and divide it equally between the two tails to get an area of 0.005 in each
tail. From the table, we can find that 0.005 in the left and right tails corresponds
to XL2 = 5.697 and XR2 = 35.718. with these values, then we can get,

( 18 – 1) ( 55.4)2