Sustainable Mobility

Technical and environmental challenges for the automotive sector

Week 1 Session 2 Evolution of the transport sector

Arash Farnoosh

IFPEN / IFP School 2014

The growth of transportation needs

The growth of commuting and travel along with the growth of consumption in general will increase
the need for transportation for both individuals and goods.
Three main factors explain this growth :
1. demographic growth
2. urbanization
3. economic growth.
Demographic growth
The worlds population was 2.5 billion in 1950. At present, there are over 7 billion people on earth,
and by 2050, there will be over nine billion people according to UN projections.
As population rises, global passenger mobility and global freight volumes may triple by 2050
according to the OECD.
Urbanization
In addition to this demographic factor there is also the specific phenomenon of urbanization on the
worldwide scale. In 1950, only one out of three people in the world lived in an urban area; they are
now one out of two, and they will be nearly two out of three in 2030, that is to say in almost 15
years. This has a strong impact on the development of transportation needs for both public and
private transit.
Economic growth
The countries that have achieved high and stable levels of economic development usually have high
car ownership levels. The motorization rates are especially high in North America, Australia, Europe
and Japan but it is not the case in Africa. The global average motorization rate is about 170 vehicles /
1000 inhabitants.

Number of vehicles per 1000 inhabitants.

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IFPEN / IFP School 2014

What is to be expected in the future ? Projections this far ahead are fraught with uncertainty. For
example, it is unclear to what extent car ownership per capita will rise in emerging economies. At the
moment various agencies think that it will be somewhere between European and Japanese levels
with the exception of China, for which they anticipate a dramatic growth.

The transport of goods will also increase. One must not forget that the bulk of world trade is carried
by sea: 80% of goods pass through shipping. The major shipping routes of world trade today are the
Panama Canal, Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca and Sunda and South East Asia. Air freight accounts
for the rest of the world trade.
A bilateral trade flow of goods is the trade volume between two countries. The observation of
projected bilateral trade flows in twenty years time shows that there will be a strong development
of the Asian region especially in China.

The impact on energy demand

The transportation needs will increase, therefore the energy demand will follow the same path. But
what kinds of energy are used for transportation and what evolutions are expected?
The importance of the transport sector for oil
Oil is nowadays mostly used for transport. Indeed, more than 50% of the oil produced is used to
meet transportation requirements.
The various sectors will have expanding needs. This is the case for power generation, petrochemicals
and building. But transport is expected to remain an important driver for oil demand, which is
forecast to grow by 25% by 2035.

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IFPEN / IFP School 2014

Personal Light Duty Vehicles are the leading component of transport oil demand and this is projected
to remain the case in 2035 in the New Policies Scenario, even though road freight and aviation will
grow at faster rates. Demand for oil to run PLDVs is determined not just by the underlying demand
for personal mobility (which reveals itself in the number of vehicles in circulation and the average
distance driven), but also by the choice of fuel or vehicle technology and the fuel efficiency of the
vehicle. However, oil demand for road transport will remain significant.

The energy mix

The transport sector does not have a diversified energy portfolio : 97% of world transport relies on
oil. The other sources of energy are still to be developed.
The demand for personal mobility is of course the main driver for future oil demand. But this
mobility will continue to rely mainly on diesel (driven by the rise of diesel use in Heavy Duty Vehicles)
and gasoline. Costs of exploration & production are rapidly increasing, and no one predicts that the
oil price will decline any time soon. The use of oil might be here to stay and this dependency is a
major challenge for the transport sector in the 21st century.

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IFPEN / IFP School 2014