Halmar Halide
Hydrometeorology Laboratory, Physics Dept, FMIPA
Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar, INDONESIA
http://geospasial.bnpb.go.id/pantauanbencana/data/datakbhutanall.php
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/385400.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
http://gradworks.umi.com/36/28/3628955.html
RECIPE:
Model: MR (Multiple Regression), Persistence
Model Input/Predictors: Past annual ENSO, NTI, Fire events
Modul Output/Predictant: next year fire events
Validation: Rolling Validation/ One-step-ahead forecast
training
training
testing
testing
, etc
Model inputs
Pearson correlation
RMSE
Past NTI
0.54
52201
0.92
40348
Past ENSO
0.95
39558
Past Fire
0.96
38574
Persistence*
0.99
38397
Model
inputs
Pearson
correlation
RMSE
Past NTI
0.54
52201
Past Fire,
ENSO & NTI
0.92
40348
Past ENSO
0.95
39558
Past Fire
0.96
38574
Persistence
0.99
38397
Bersama..Kita bisa!
dan tentu sajalebih cepat!
Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,
Kendari