Halmar Halide @ physics unhas

CICES 2014, Kendari

PREDICTION ERRORS IN FORECASTING WILDLAND FIRES

USING LAND AND OCEANIC TEMPERATURE INDICES:
HOW LOW CAN WE GO?*

Halmar Halide
Hydrometeorology Laboratory, Physics Dept, FMIPA
Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar, INDONESIA

*) Presented for the Celebes International Conference on Earth Sciences,

Swiss-Bell Hotel, Kendari, 11th November 2014.
Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,
Kendari

 Background: BNPB, Wildland Fire events

(Indonesia, USA) and suppression cost (USA)
Modeling Interannual Fire events (USA cases):
simple MR and Fire Persistence and rollingvalidation, skill assessment (RMSE, CORR)
Implications: use of a more complex model for the
USA fires, model adaptation for the Indonesia fires
Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,
Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

http://geospasial.bnpb.go.id/pantauanbencana/data/datakbhutanall.php

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Suppression Costs (1985-2013)

http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_documents/SuppCosts.pdf

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/385400.html

Halmar Halide @ physics unhas

CICES 2014, Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

DISASTER IN THE AL QURAN

http://gayonusantara.blogspot.com/2013/07/bencana-alam-menurut-perspektif-al-quran_8280.html

Mushbah: segala sesuatu yang

tak menyenangkan QS 42 (30); 64 (11)

Bal: nyata/tampak QS 86 (9);

ujian QS 26 (7), 27 (40), 89 (15-17) , 3 (154)
iqab, adzb, dharra, bas, sayyit

Fitnah: ujian QS 8 (25,28), 21 (35)

Sijjil : hujan batu QS 11 (82-83)

rajfah : gempa QS 7 (77-79, 91, 131-136, 155)

29 (37), 7

Thfn/sail : banjir QS 7 (133), 29 (14), 11 (42),

34 (16)

shiqah: petir QS 41 (13,17),

51 (43-44) , 7 (79)

al-rh: angin QS 69 (6-7), 41 (16), 46 (24), 51 (41-42), 33 (9), 17 (69), 69 (6-7)

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari TRMM=Tropical

Rain Measuring Mission

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

http://gradworks.umi.com/36/28/3628955.html

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

RECIPE:
Model: MR (Multiple Regression), Persistence
Model Input/Predictors: Past annual ENSO, NTI, Fire events
Modul Output/Predictant: next year fire events
Validation: Rolling Validation/ One-step-ahead forecast

training

training

testing

testing

Prediction skill: Pearson correlation and RMSE

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,
Kendari

, etc

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Model inputs

Pearson correlation

RMSE

Past NTI

0.54

52201

Past Fire, ENSO & NTI

0.92

40348

Past ENSO

0.95

39558

Past Fire

0.96

38574

Persistence*

0.99

38397

* : no modeling was involved

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Model
inputs

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Pearson
correlation

RMSE

Past NTI

0.54

52201

Past Fire,
ENSO & NTI

0.92

40348

Past ENSO

0.95

39558

Past Fire

0.96

38574

Persistence

0.99

38397

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari

Bersama..Kita bisa!
dan tentu sajalebih cepat!
Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,
Kendari

Halmar Halide@physics unhas, CICES 2014,

Kendari