All Keerthi Cards

Parkway West High School
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***TI Keerthi Cards
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Keerthi Gondi

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LNG Aff Blocks
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Keerthi Gondi

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A2 China Steel DA
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Keerthi Gondi

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1NC
Chinese steel industry is low now---no revenues and
overcapacity.
Sophie Song, 5/23/2013, 30 Top Chinese Steel Companies Have Total
Current Liabilities Of 759B Yuan ($124B) International Business Times;

http://www.ibtimes.com/30-top-chinese-steel-companies-have-total-currentliabilities-759b-yuan-124b-1275349, KTG
Chinas steel industry is in deep waters due to low steel prices and
overcapacity, evident in its balance sheet. As of the end of the first quarter of 2013, Chinas top 30
publicly traded steel companies have total current liabilities
amounting to 759 billion yuan ($124 billion), and their current assets are only 530 billion yuan ($87
billion). This figure was calculated by Sheng Zhicheng, the deputy secretary
general of the China Steel Logistics Committee of the China Federation of Logistics &
Purchasing and reported by Yicai, a top Chinese financial newspaper. According to Sheng, these firms total liabilities
increased by 26.9 billion yuan ($4.39 billion) compared to the same period last year. Current liability is a core component
of a companys balance sheet. It can be understood to be the companys debts or financial obligations that are due within
a calendar year and typically include short-term loans, bills payable, accounts payable, employee salaries, and taxes and
dues payable. On the other side of the balance sheet is a companys current asset, which is the asset a company holds
that can be converted to cash or used to pay current liabilities within 12 months. Having
higher
liabilities than assets is problematic for a companys operations, Sheng said.
The ratio of a companys assets to its liabilities is called its current
ratio and measures its ability to pay short-term obligations. Within these 30 firms, Xining Specialty Steels
current ratio is 0.28, Yicai reports. In absolute terms, at the end of Q1, the current
liabilities of Hebei Iron And Steel Co. (SHE:000709) outweigh its current assets by
as much as 45 billion yuan ($7.34 billion), the largest gap of the 30 steel companies. In the first
quarter, the company reported a net profit of 43.8 million yuan ($7.14 million), an 87.82 percent decrease from the same
period last year. Six other companies current liabilities outweigh their current assets by more than 10 billion yuan ($1.63
Steel companies current difficulties are due to the slumping of

the steel industry recently, as well as an overcapacity issue in
Chinas steel industry. Most of the 10 largest cities saw dramatic
decreases in steel prices in the middle of May. With low demands,
steel companies were forced to lower their prices. Last year, steel was among the
billion).
biggest overcapacity industries in China, according to Yicai. Specifically, the rate of capacity utilization of crude steel was
as low as 75.8 percent. \
The plan would just maintain the steel industry at its

current levels and make sure it doesnt collapse below its
current level.
Transportation Institute, 2012, Great Lakes Dredging Crisis,;
Transportation Institute is an organization dedicated to preserve the Jones
Act, ensure waterborne commerce, and enhance naval waterborne mobility;
at-lakes-dredging.html, KTG
The nations Great Lakes region is a prominent element of the U.S.
industrial base with 70% of national steelmaking capacity, 70% of U.S auto
production and more than 50% of heavy industrial manufacturing facilities located in Great Lakes states.
This industrial might has been well served by the waterborne transport system
supporting the American and Canadian ports and numerous private terminals located
throughout the Lakes. Some Canadian-flag vessels and other foreign-flag, oceangoing ships call at various points throughout the Lakes. However, the marine
system is comprised mainly of a highly efficient fleet of U.S.-vessels which carry the iron ore, coal,
limestone, cement, etc. needed to operate this massive industrial capacity critical to both U.S. economic

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Currently, however, the efficiency of the U.S.-flag fleet

has been diminished by a lack of adequate channel and harbor depth
all around the Lakes. In the last decade of the 20th century unusually high water levels masked
and military security.
the severity of the crisis because ships could carry maximum cargo loads. The 21st century began with a
rapidly diminishing level of vital industrial cargoes which could be delivered to end users. The relevant
Just one inch of lost capacity results in a loss of 50 to

270 tons of capacity for lake bound ships and 115 tons of lost capacity for the
statistics are startling.
average ocean going vessel serving Great Lakes ports. The situation has gotten so desperate that the
1,000 ft. self-unloading bulk carriers, the largest and most efficient vessels in the fleet, capable of lifting
nearly 70,000 tons, have been forced to sail 8,000 tons light every voyage. In real terms, the loss of
economic benefit associated with such light loads is staggering. Steel made from 8,000 tons of iron ore
makes 6,000 cars. Power generation resulting from 8,000 tons of coal would provide three hours of peak
demand for a city the size of Detroit, MI. With the housing industry nationwide in distress the loss of 8,000
tons of limestone per voyage means that 24 average American homes cannot be built, further
exacerbating the situation. The core of the problem results from the lack of proper funding and an official
perception of the region as a series of unrelated ports rather than of a cohesive system.
Impact is inevitable and non-uq---Obama is pushing for

more TI now except for ports
Will Marshall, President of the Progressive Policy Institute, 4/25/13
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/will-marshall/austerity-obamabudget_b_3117732.html
Giving priority to jobs and growth, Obama calls for new investments
to replenish America's depleted stocks of physical, human and knowledge capital -aka, infrastructure, education and job training, and science and technology. To get America
moving again -- literally -- his plan proposes $40 billion to repair
highways, transit systems and airports, and, for the umpteenth time, a National
Infrastructure Bank. Nonetheless, the Bank is especially critical, for two reasons. First, it would use public
dollars to leverage private investments in modernizing our transportation, energy and water systems. At a time of
constrained federal budgets, it's essential to tap private capital -- pension funds, institutional and even foreign investors-in rebuilding the economy's foundations. Second, the Bank would recruit a corps of finance professionals to steer
investments into projects that generate real economic returns, giving citizens more confidence that politicians won't waste
the budget would create new bonds to finance

big capital projects, invest in high-speed rail, modernize air traffic
control system (boosting efficiency and reducing those interminable
airport delays) and speed up permitting for major infrastructure projects. The Obama plan also would invest
their tax dollars on pork-barrel spending. In addition,
more in early education for poor children and in equipping Americans with the world-class skills they need to claim their
share of the world's high-wage jobs. And it would build on America's comparative advantage in innovation and technology
by upping spending on research and development, and establishing regional centers to promote advanced manufacturing.
Militarization Turn--Chinese steel industry would be used for military means

and results in currency manipulation.
SSINA, January 2007, Steel and The National Defense, Specialty Steel
Industry of North America, published by American Iron and Steel Institute;
http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/steel_and_national_defense
_0107.pdf, KTG
Any discussion regarding the importance of steel to national security
must take into account the growing impact of China on the U.S. steel
industry. China is unquestionably the most important factor influencing the global steel industry. The growth in
Chinas steel sector has been unprecedented. Its appetite for raw
materials has had an effect on the cost structure of virtually every
steel producing nation, including the U.S. Most importantly, Chinas shift in 2005 to a
position of net steel exporter and its continued plans to increase productive capacity pose a

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major threat to the viability of a U.S. domestic steel industry that only recently has seen its markets recover
from the post-9/11 recession. The facts regarding the Chinese steel sector are straightforward and indisputable. By
the end of 2006, China was producing steel products at the rate of 500 million metric tons per year far more than the
next three largest world steel producers combined. China became a net steel exporter in 2005 for the first time and, by
the end of 2006, it had become a major net steel-exporting nation -- with net steel exports in some months approaching a
40 million metric ton annualized rate and with total steel exports to the world approaching a 60 million ton annual rate.
In addition, over the last 6 months of 2006, China a non-market economy -- was the leading foreign supplier of steel to
the U.S. market, and its steel exports to the United States in 2006 are expected to approach or exceed 5 million net tons.
Chinas intense demand for raw materials, including scrap, has altered the cost structure of steel production world wide,
including in the United States. China has also used government money to purchase equity interests in offshore companies
that can supply critical raw materials. Chinas government remains intimately involved in its steel industry -- providing
significant subsidies in the form of favorable tax treatment, export credit support, R&D support and direct funding of new
projects. 7 China is already in a steel oversupply situation, and its announced capacity expansions in the steel sector
between 2005 and 2009 are estimated to exceed 200 million tons. The level of these expansions far exceeds Chinese
The growth of
Chinas steel sector has been heavily influenced by government
intervention. China has: manipulated its currency; provided
significant incentives for foreign investment; and, in many
instances, tied investment incentives to the transfer to China of the
best available steel producing technology. Many of these
technologies are critical to the development of leading edge defense
applications. As production moves, so too does the research and
development that is tied directly to that production. Moreover, as China
domestic demand and ensures the countrys continued growth as a major net steel exporter.
continues to expand its production and its productive capacity far in excess of its domestic needs it is certain to avail
itself of opportunities to gain market share abroad. Chinas ability to gain that market share is enhanced by: a currency
that is undervalued by as much as 40%; a cost structure that, in many cases, does not reflect enforcement of
comprehensive environmental, health and safety regulations; and an economic system that remains government-
Given the importance of steel to U.S. national security, it is

vital that America does not become dangerously dependent on
offshore sources of supply. Yet, the growth of the Chinese steel
sector gives rise to such concerns. U.S. economic policy toward China, and in particular towards
directed.
its steel sector, must be considered in the context of our own domestic steel industry and the national security
consequences of allowing the U.S. steel industry to become the victim of a foreign government-directed industrial policy
that has already targeted the U.S. market from the standpoint of access to raw materials, technology and greater market
share.
Military improvements make war over Taiwan and general

confrontation with the US inevitable.
Ronald ORourke, April 26 2013, China Naval Modernization: Implications
for U.S. Navy CapabilitiesBackground and Issues for Congress, Mr.
O'Rourke is a Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the Johns Hopkins University, from
which he received his B.A. in international studies, and a valedictorian
graduate of the University's Paul Nitze School of Advanced International
Studies, where he received his M.A. in the same field, he is a specialist in
Naval Affairs; Fed. Of American Scientists,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf, KTG
DOD and other observers believe that the near-term focus of Chinas
military modernization effort, including its naval modernization
effort, has been to develop military options for addressing the
situation with Taiwan.17 Consistent with this goal, observers believe that China wants
its military to be capable of acting as a so-called anti-access forcea
force that can deter U.S. intervention in a conflict involving Taiwan,
or failing that, delay the arrival or reduce the effectiveness of
intervening U.S. naval and air forces. ASBMs, attack submarines, and supporting
C4ISR systems are viewed as key elements of Chinas emerging anti-access force, though other force
elementssuch as ASCMs, LACMs (for attacking U.S. air bases and other facilities in the Western Pacific),
Chinas emerging maritime anti-access force can be

viewed as broadly analogous to the sea- denial force that the Soviet
and minesare also of significance.

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Union developed during the Cold War to deny U.S. use of the sea or counter U.S.
forces participating in a NATO-Warsaw Pact conflict. One potential difference between the Soviet sea-denial
force and Chinas emerging maritime anti-access force is that Chinas force includes ASBMs capable of
hitting moving ships at sea.
Any US-China war goes nuclear (lol causes extinction

probably)
Gregory Kulacki, 9/21/2012, The Risk of Nuclear War with China, Kulacki
is Senior Analyst & China Project Manager for the Global Security Program at
the Union of Concerned Scientists
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gregory-kulacki/the-risk-of-nuclear-warw_b_1903336.html, KTG
Although the United States is unwilling to make a similar
commitment, U.S. superiority in conventional weapons and overall
military capabilities makes it unlikely the United States would
consider using nuclear weapons for any purpose other than
preventing a Chinese nuclear attack on the United States. The most recent
U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, in an effort to deemphasize the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. defense
policy, declared that the "fundamental role of U.S. nuclear weapons...is to deter a nuclear attack on the
The risk of a nuclear war with China lies in

the potential for misunderstanding or miscommunication during a
conventional conflict. China's current strategy for employing its
conventional and nuclear missile forces during a future conflict with
the United States is self-consciously designed to create uncertainty ,
United States, our allies and partners."
with the expectation that uncertainty will restrain U.S. military action. Unfortunately, China's strategy
There are several

Chinese military policies that might confuse U.S. decision-makers in
a time of war. Some Chinese conventional missiles are located on the same missile bases as
could also precipitate a large-scale U.S. attack on China's missile forces.
Chinese nuclear missiles. Some Chinese missiles, particularly the DF-21, can be armed with either a
Chinese conventional war plans call for longrange "strategic" conventional missile strikes at key enemy targets,
including U.S. military bases on allied soil and the continental United
States. If this were not confusing enough already, The Science of Second Artillery Operations contains
conventional or a nuclear warhead.
a section on "lowering the nuclear threshold" that details procedures for alerting China's nuclear forces in a
crisis for the express purpose of forcing a halt to an enemy's conventional attacks on a select group of
targets, such as Chinese nuclear power plants, large dams and civilian population centers. Although the
Science of Second Artillery Operations unambiguously states that if alerting China's nuclear missile forces
fails to halt conventional enemy attacks China will hold firm to its "no first use" commitment, U.S. decisionmakers might not believe it. Indeed, U.S. interlocutors have repeatedly told their Chinese counterparts that
The combination of these factors

makes a nuclear exchange between the United States and China not
only plausible, but also probable if the two countries were to
become embroiled in a military conflic t. As Lewis and Xue explain, "If, in a time
of high tension, the Chinese command authorized a conventional
missile attack as an act of preemptive self-defense, the enemy and
its allies could not know if the incoming missiles were conventional
or nuclear. In a worst-case scenario, a Chinese first-strike conventional attack
could spark retaliation that destroys Chinese nuclear assets,
creating a situation in which escalation to full-scale nuclear war
would not just be possible, but even likely." The Obama administration is
they do not find China's "no first use" pledge credible.
"rebalancing" U.S. military forces in response to perceived relative increases in Chinese military
capabilities. China sees this so-called "pivot" to Asia, especially when pared with new U.S. military
strategies such as "Air-Sea Battle," as a policy of containment. Both sides downplay the risks of conflict,
but they also see each other as potential adversaries, and are hedging their diplomatic bets with

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expensive investments in new military hardware, including new technologies that will expand the conflict
into cyberspace and outer space. Territorial disputes between China and U.S. allies, rising nationalist
China could
produce any number of casussen belli that could trigger the
conventional conflict that carries the risk of ending in a nuclear war.
sentiment in the region, and the potential for domestic political instability within
Case turns and outweighs the DAEngland 11 indicates

US naval power, which would occur through port
improvements, is key to deter great power war and
interdict conflicts. War would probably drain the global
economy because of resource spending and prevents
Chinese instability before it starts.

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A2: Chinese Economic Collapse

Chinese economic collapse is inevitable and alt causes.
Gaurav Moghe, July 2012, China Economy Will Collapse Eventually: The
Glorious Days of the Dragon Are Over
http://www.policymic.com/articles/10871/china-economy-will-collapseeventually-the-glorious-days-of-the-dragon-are-over, KTG
Chinas economic growth has been both impressive and stable since
the 1980s, and many argue that the picture will remain same for decades to come. But this decade
China will go through a massive negative transition, defying such argument.
The negative transition will take roots in political institution,
demography and export markets, the very elements that have
carved the success story of China. Talking about political institution,
China is the largest Communist regime which has aimed for growth
at any cost. This motto has largely helped China to grow at double digit pace, build world class infrastructure,
road and rail networks, and telecommunication, but at the same time it has fuelled ire in Chinas
population for the regime as human rights are often disregarded, no
check is in place on growing inequality, government spends less on
social welfare, and the country has no such thing as voice of the
people. Of late, that ire has surfaced against one party rule and a growing wealth gap. Signs of
political chaos are visible and it will only grow further as export
market a major source of economic growth and a cushion for Chinas leaders in times of public protest is likely to
decline. China is the largest exporter in the world , with huge trade surplus. That
golden age of China is on the verge of ending. Population has
started growing old, which has led to the vacancy of many jobs; as a
result, wages have gone up ending the period of cheap labors which played a crucial role in Chinas growth story. With the
rise in wages companies will elevate their products price to compensate the increased wages which will cause a damaging
effect on export markets. The other damaging effect of aging population is the rise of pensioners. As the youth is almost
disappearing,
it will be a hard decade for China as it will confront the

challenge of paying to an increased amount of pensioners at a time
when productivity and export market is on the decline. A parallel challenge
that will come with it, is public protest. Chinese govt. will try to stabilize political institution, suppressing protest by
spending more on public welfare keeping economic growth at stake. China has definitely nothing in its favor right now.
The deadly trio that is growing public protests against a communist

regime, an aging population, and the rise in prices leading to decline
in exports may cut Chinas three-decade long growth streak . However, its
economy will not collapse and will grow somewhere between 6% and 7%, given its strong economy. But for a country with
2012 may be Year of the Dragon,

but the coming decades will definitely be hard for the Dragon.
such a large population, 6% growth looks like a dire situation.

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A2: CCP Collapse

CCP collapse is inevitablecorruption, autocracy, and
leadership degeneration.
Minxin Pei, December 18 2012, The collapse of the CCP inevitable, Taipei
Times;
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2012/12/18/2003550403
, KTG
One question that should have been asked about the Chinese Communist Partys (CCP) just-completed leadership transition is whether the entire elaborately
The installation of a new leadership

may matter little if the end of CCP rule is both foreseeable and
highly probable. Many observers would find this assertion shocking. They insist the CPP has
proved its resilience since the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989 and the collapse of Soviet communism in 1991. Why should predictions
of the collapse of CCP rule be taken seriously now? While the future of China is unpredictable, the
durability of its post-totalitarian regime can be estimated with some
confidence. China may be unique in many ways, but its one-party
rule is hardly exceptional. Its political order suffers from the same
self-destructive dynamics that have sent countless autocratic
regimes to their graves. Among many of the systemic flaws of autocracy, degeneration at the top, epitomized by ever-weaker
leaders, is progressive and incurable. The exclusive and closed nature of autocracy bars
many talented individuals from rising to senior government
positions, owing to a pattern of succession that rewards political loyalty over capabilities. Savvy autocratic rulers favor less talented successors, because they
are easier to groom and control. Leadership degeneration accelerates as the autocratic
regime ages and grows more bureaucratic. As individuals in such regimes ascend the hierarchy, patronage
and risk aversion become the most critical factors in determining their chances for promotion. Consequently, such regimes grow
increasingly sclerotic as they select leaders with stellar resumes, but mediocre records. The most lethal
strain of leadership degeneration is escalating predation among the
ruling elites. The most visible symptom is corruption, but the cause is intrinsic to autocratic rule. Typically, first-generation revolutionaries have a strong
choreographed exercise was akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
emotional and ideological attachment to certain ideals, however misguided. The post-revolutionary elites are ideologically cynical and opportunistic. They view their work
for the regime merely as a form of investment and so seek ever-higher returns. As each preceding generation of rulers cashes in its illicit gains from holding power, the
This is the
underlying dynamic driving corruption in China today. The
consequences of leadership degeneration are easy to see: faltering
economic dynamism and growth, rising social tensions and loss of
government credibility. The puzzle is why neither the compelling self-destructive logic of autocratic rule nor the mounting evidence of
successors are motivated by both the desire to loot more and the fear that there may not be much left by the time they get their turn.
deteriorating regime performance in China has persuaded even some of the most knowledgeable observers that the end of CCP rule is now a distinct possibility. An
obvious explanation is the power of conventional thinking. Long-ruling regimes like the Soviet Communist Party are typically considered invulnerable, even just before
they collapse. However, those who believe that the CCP can defy both the internal degenerative dynamics of autocracy and the historical record of failed one-party
Dictatorships are regarded as

indestructible before they fall, Trotsky reminds us, but their demise is viewed as
inevitable once they are toppled.
regimes might benefit from reading Russian theorist Leon Trotsky.

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A2 LNG Russia Relations Turn

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2AC
Qatar takes out the link already is competing with
Russia but isnt mutually exclusive with US exports.
Matthew Hulbert, November 2012, Qatar plays a strategic LNG Game, The Middle East
Magazine; http://www.themiddleeastmagazine.com/news-detail.php?nid=134, KTG
Qatar has spent a decade making a virtue out of LNG necessity. The
tiny peninsular state signed off vast LNG expansion in the early 2000s to become the
worlds largest (77mt/y) liquid player. It was deemed a low risk play, precisely because a gas hungry America was the target market of choice.
America will
become an LNG export competitor with Qatar over the next five
years. None of that was part of the original Qatari script, but what Doha has lost in the US, it has gained from a global perspective, by
No one - least of all Qatar - saw the shale gas revolution coming. US import demand hasnt just gone;
becoming the crucial swing player feeding European and Asian markets. Get its strategy right, and this will be a commercially and politically
Qatars predicament is how to keep feeding European and Asian markets to its own
current strategy is to keep feeding European sport markets
lucrative space for Qatar to occupy. The nub of
gain. Its
(principally the UK National Balancing Point) as a transitional step towards an Asian future. The basic idea is if Qatar keeps Europe well
supplied, it can then continue to push for far higher (oil indexed) prices in Asia. When you consider that European prices typically trade at
around $8-10/MMBtu compared to $14-18/MMBtu in Asia, its crystal clear where the best arbitrage returns rest. But where Qatar has been
particularly smart, is grasping that this transitional game is about securing Dohas long term political and economic stake in the global
economy, not just worrying about short term spreads. By playing multiple markets and keeping its finger in the European dyke, Doha can
hedge its global energy stake on the two fronts that ultimately matter supply and demand. For demand, read Asia. Qatar will look to place
over 40-50m tonnes of LNG into Asian markets over the next decade, ramping up the 34m it already ships East. If things go according to plan,
most of that will be under lucrative oil-indexed contracts to India, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, but the key growth market to
secure remains China where gas demand continues to rocket up 5% a year. Beijing is proving increasingly difficult to nail down on price,
thanks to its own eclectic sources of gas supply from Central Asia, Australia and domestic shale prospects. But as long as Qatar keeps feeding
European markets, it is making clear China will have to pay a significant premium to ensure Doha turns most of its tankers East. Its not as if
Given Russia is
also increasingly keen to sell gas into China, Qatar is challenging
Moscow at both ends of the Eurasian pipeline. Qatar not only gives
Beijing another supply option to play over Russias East Siberian
fields, it is wreaking havoc on Russian pricing preferences in Europe. Market share has been taken in
Qatar needs to rake in the Remninbi to survive. More importantly, it directly ties into the supply side picture.
Belgium, France, Spain and Italy, but more importantly, 85% of gas being traded on the UK NBP is Qatari sourced. Little wonder that only 56%
of physically traded gas in Europe was done so under oil-indexed formulas last year traders have a far cheaper and increasingly liquid pool to
play with in Europe. That makes for somewhat awkward Russian-Qatari relations, but also creates serious opportunities for Doha. Russia has
made abundantly clear it wants Qatar to focus on Asia, to sell its gas under long-term contracts and stop feeding European spot market
liquidity. Logical enough; but in return, Qatar would not only expect to get major Russian upstream stakes in Yamal, the Arctic and East
Siberian plays (alongside access to Gazproms downstream stakes), it would need to ensure Russia holds back on Asian supplies. This would
basically amount to a Russian-Qatari swap agreement between European and
Russias energy sector will inevitable declineno

infrastructure.
Al Fin November 5 2012, The Inevitable Decline of Russia's Energy Sector, Oil Price- No. 1 Source
for Oil and Energy News; http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Inevitable-Decline-of-RussiasEnergy-Sector.html, KTG
Oil, gas, base minerals, diamonds,

precious metals, high quality timber, vast freshwater resources -- Russia has it all. But due to
corruption and bad management, most of Russia's production
infrastructure still dates to the Soviet era, old and decrepit. The same is
true for most of Russia's vaunted military infrastructure. And worst of all, the core population of
ethnic Russians is shrinking -- being replaced by Central Asian
immigrants with divided loyalties. And so Russia's oil production is doomed to
go the way of Mexico's, if Russia refuses to spend the necessary
amount to upgrade its production infrastructure. While a decade of rising oil output
and prices fueled the resurgence of the Russian economy and the Kremlin, a tougher future beckons. The
International Energy Agency forecasts a slight decline in Russian oil
output for the next two decades. _WSJ The corrupt Putin oligarchy is indistinguishable from a
Russia has the largest land area of any nation. Its land is not only vast, but rich.
third world dictatorship in the way that it is stripping the country's natural resources for the enrichment of top officials and
their close crony connections.
Russia's western Siberian fields60% of the country's current

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outputare
a declining Soviet legacy. Offsetting this with new fields in areas

will be challenging and, hence, expensive. Lower exports and
rising costs point to smaller margins for oil companiesand a
smaller take for a state whose dependence on energy revenue has
increased. Unless Russia can crack modernization and diversification for its economy, this represents
a crisis in the making. _WSJ If oil production and oil income decline, there will be less booty to pass
like the Arctic offshore
around the table of kleptocrats. That would likely shift the attention of the oligarchs to the scavenging of other parts of
Russia's infrastructure -- the military in particular.
Multiple thumpers--A) Magnitsky Act and human rights sanctions thump

Russia Relations now.
Jack F. Matlock Jr., April 18 2013, Repairing U.S.-Russia Relations, Former U.S. Ambassador to
Russia; MA in Russian Lang and Literature from Columbia University; Professor of the Practice of
International Diplomacy at Univ. of Columbia; http://www.cfr.org/russian-fed/repairing-us-russiarelations/p30484, KTG
Diplomatic relations between Washington and Moscow have chilled

markedly over the past year, beset most recently by U.S. legislation
known as the Magnitsky Act, which imposed sanctions on a list of
alleged human rights abusers in Russia. Moscow, in turn, retaliated with
a series of measures that, among other things, ban U.S. citizens from adopting
Russians. Despite these tensions, Jack F. Matlock, Jr., a former envoy to Moscow, says the two powers have many shared interests
that require cooperation. "On issues that are extremely important to the United States, like dealing with North Korea, dealing with Afghanistan,
and dealing with Iran, our policies are very close and tend to be mutually supportive," he notes. Presidents Obama and Putin are scheduled to
meet twice over the next several months, and Matlock holds hope the pair can reengage on these important topics and others, including the
there are a lot of tensions, in particular

over these human rights issues in Russia. But in private, when one speaks to senior Russians, you
conflict in Syria and arms control. Obviously, in public
still have recognition that we have a lot of common interests and that it's important for both countries to continue cooperating on them. The
big issue is to what degree we can work together without getting distracted by what Russians see as a U.S. effort to interfere seriously in their
Clearly, President Putin has been encouraging antiAmerican sentiment because he associates U.S. influence with the
opposition to his own presidency--and that's not going to ease. There is a
internal political process.
lot of cooperation going on behind the scenes, and therefore, there is hope that cooler heads will prevail on both sides and that we can pursue
our common interests without letting emotional issues get too much in the way. On the other hand, he's a realist. One of the things we
learned when a group of former ambassadors from Russia and the United States met in Moscow a few weeks ago is that on issues that are
extremely important to the United States, like dealing with North Korea, dealing with Afghanistan, and dealing with Iran, our policies are very
close and tend to be mutually supportive. So we shouldn't ignore the fact that there is a lot of cooperation going on behind the scenes, and
therefore, there is hope that cooler heads will prevail on both sides and that we can pursue our common interests without letting emotional
issues get too much in the way.
B) Syria policy
Jack F. Matlock Jr., April 18 2013, Repairing U.S.-Russia Relations, Former U.S. Ambassador to
Russia; MA in Russian Lang and Literature from Columbia University; Professor of the Practice of
International Diplomacy at Univ. of Columbia; http://www.cfr.org/russian-fed/repairing-us-russiarelations/p30484, KTG
A major international issue right now is Syria. Russia and the United
States have been on different sides: the Russians continue to
support the Bashar al-Assad government, and the United States
wants Assad out, although Washington hasn't gone so far as to arm the opposition. When Obama
and Putin meet in June, can they discuss this issue constructively? What both would like to see happen in
Syria is not that far apart. There is a perception in Russia that the United States is trying to back anti-Assad
forces without knowing what they're supporting, which could produce an outcome that may be bad for all
the differences have been more nuanced than many people

perceive. The former ambassadors, both Russian and American, made a statement on this, and we
of us. So
could agree on what the aims should be. We felt that both countries should be encouraging the formation
of some sort of interim government based upon an election, but there should be negotiations toward that
The problem is not so much Russian policy or U.S

policy, but the fact that Syria is in a civil war and it's not at all clear
end without preconditions.

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what the outcome will be and whether minorities will be protected if

Assad is removed. This unpredictability, and the fact that backing one faction against another
militarily can easily backfire, is what gives the Russians concern. So there is room for a realistic discussion
really knows how outsiders can play

a useful role in this. It seems to be a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.
between the presidents on this issue. But nobody
C) NATO policy
Peter Dale Scott, 6/7/2013, The NATO Afghanistan War and US-Russian Relations: Drugs, Oil, and
War The Rseau Voltaire is an international non-profit organisation, based in Paris. It stated aim is the
promotion of freedom and secularism, that is separation of church and state, faith and politics; Scott is a
former Canadian diplomat and English Professor at the University of California, Berkeley;
http://www.voltairenet.org/article178787.html, KTG
my paper urged Russians despite the aggressive

activities in Central Asia of the CIA, SOCOM (US Special Operations Command), and
NATO to cooperate under multilateral auspices with like-minded Americans, towards dealing with
Unlike other speakers,
the related crises of Afghan drug production and drug-financed Salafi jihadism. Since the conference I have continued to
the battered state of US-Russian relations, and my own

slightly utopian hopes for repairing them. Although the speakers at the conference
reflect intensely on
represented many different viewpoints, they tended to share a deep anxiety about US intentions towards Russia and the
Their anxiety was based on shared knowledge of

past American actions and broken promises, of which they (unlike most Americans) are
only too aware. A key example of such broken promises was the assurance
that NATO would not take advantage of dtente to expand into
Eastern Europe. Today of course Poland and other former Warsaw Pact members are members of NATO, along
with the former Baltic Soviet Socialist Republics. And there are still proposals on the table
to expand NATO into the Ukraine i.e. the very heart of the former Soviet Union. This push was matched by
other former states of the USSR.
U.S. joint activities and operations some of them under NATO auspices with the army and security forces of Uzbekistan.
There are other broken

agreements, such as the unauthorized conversion of a Russianapproved UN Force for Afghanistan in 2001 into a force under the direction of NATO. Two
(Both these initiatives began in 1997, i.e. in the Clinton administration).
speakers complained that Americas determination to locate a missile shield system against Afghanistan in Eastern Europe
(rebuffing Russias suggestion that it be placed in Asia) constituted a threat to world peace.

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A2 LNG Russia Economy Turn

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2AC
Qatar takes out the link already is competing with
Russia but isnt mutually exclusive with US exports.
Matthew Hulbert, November 2012, Qatar plays a strategic LNG Game, The Middle East
Magazine; http://www.themiddleeastmagazine.com/news-detail.php?nid=134
Qatar has spent a decade making a virtue out of LNG necessity. The
tiny peninsular state signed off vast LNG expansion in the early 2000s to become the
worlds largest (77mt/y) liquid player. It was deemed a low risk play, precisely because a gas hungry America was the target market of choice.
America will
become an LNG export competitor with Qatar over the next five
years. None of that was part of the original Qatari script, but what Doha has lost in the US, it has gained from a global perspective, by
No one - least of all Qatar - saw the shale gas revolution coming. US import demand hasnt just gone;
becoming the crucial swing player feeding European and Asian markets. Get its strategy right, and this will be a commercially and politically
Qatars predicament is how to keep feeding European and Asian markets to its own
current strategy is to keep feeding European sport markets
lucrative space for Qatar to occupy. The nub of
gain. Its
(principally the UK National Balancing Point) as a transitional step towards an Asian future. The basic idea is if Qatar keeps Europe well
supplied, it can then continue to push for far higher (oil indexed) prices in Asia. When you consider that European prices typically trade at
around $8-10/MMBtu compared to $14-18/MMBtu in Asia, its crystal clear where the best arbitrage returns rest. But where Qatar has been
particularly smart, is grasping that this transitional game is about securing Dohas long term political and economic stake in the global
economy, not just worrying about short term spreads. By playing multiple markets and keeping its finger in the European dyke, Doha can
hedge its global energy stake on the two fronts that ultimately matter supply and demand. For demand, read Asia. Qatar will look to place
over 40-50m tonnes of LNG into Asian markets over the next decade, ramping up the 34m it already ships East. If things go according to plan,
most of that will be under lucrative oil-indexed contracts to India, South Korea, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, but the key growth market to
secure remains China where gas demand continues to rocket up 5% a year. Beijing is proving increasingly difficult to nail down on price,
thanks to its own eclectic sources of gas supply from Central Asia, Australia and domestic shale prospects. But as long as Qatar keeps feeding
European markets, it is making clear China will have to pay a significant premium to ensure Doha turns most of its tankers East. Its not as if
Given Russia is
also increasingly keen to sell gas into China, Qatar is challenging
Moscow at both ends of the Eurasian pipeline. Qatar not only gives
Beijing another supply option to play over Russias East Siberian
fields, it is wreaking havoc on Russian pricing preferences in Europe. Market share has been taken in
Qatar needs to rake in the Remninbi to survive. More importantly, it directly ties into the supply side picture.
Belgium, France, Spain and Italy, but more importantly, 85% of gas being traded on the UK NBP is Qatari sourced. Little wonder that only 56%
of physically traded gas in Europe was done so under oil-indexed formulas last year traders have a far cheaper and increasingly liquid pool to
play with in Europe. That makes for somewhat awkward Russian-Qatari relations, but also creates serious opportunities for Doha. Russia has
made abundantly clear it wants Qatar to focus on Asia, to sell its gas under long-term contracts and stop feeding European spot market
liquidity. Logical enough; but in return, Qatar would not only expect to get major Russian upstream stakes in Yamal, the Arctic and East
Siberian plays (alongside access to Gazproms downstream stakes), it would need to ensure Russia holds back on Asian supplies. This would
basically amount to a Russian-Qatari swap agreement between European and.
Russias energy sectors will inevitable declineno

infrastructure.
Al Fin November 5 2012, The Inevitable Decline of Russia's Energy Sector, Oil Price- No. 1 Source
for Oil and Energy News; http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Inevitable-Decline-of-RussiasEnergy-Sector.html, KTG
Oil, gas, base minerals, diamonds,

precious metals, high quality timber, vast freshwater resources -- Russia has it all. But due to
corruption and bad management, most of Russia's production
infrastructure still dates to the Soviet era, old and decrepit. The same is
true for most of Russia's vaunted military infrastructure. And worst of all, the core population of
ethnic Russians is shrinking -- being replaced by Central Asian
immigrants with divided loyalties. And so Russia's oil production is doomed to
go the way of Mexico's, if Russia refuses to spend the necessary
amount to upgrade its production infrastructure. While a decade of rising oil output
and prices fueled the resurgence of the Russian economy and the Kremlin, a tougher future beckons. The
International Energy Agency forecasts a slight decline in Russian oil
output for the next two decades. _WSJ The corrupt Putin oligarchy is indistinguishable from a
Russia has the largest land area of any nation. Its land is not only vast, but rich.
third world dictatorship in the way that it is stripping the country's natural resources for the enrichment of top officials and
their close crony connections.
Russia's western Siberian fields60% of the country's current

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outputare
a declining Soviet legacy. Offsetting this with new fields in areas

will be challenging and, hence, expensive. Lower exports and
rising costs point to smaller margins for oil companiesand a
smaller take for a state whose dependence on energy revenue has
increased. Unless Russia can crack modernization and diversification for its economy, this represents
a crisis in the making. _WSJ If oil production and oil income decline, there will be less booty to pass
like the Arctic offshore
around the table of kleptocrats. That would likely shift the attention of the oligarchs to the scavenging of other parts of
Russia's infrastructure -- the military in particular.
Russia economy and oil sector is low and decline and

there are alt causes.
Scott Rose and Olga Tanas, 5/17/2013, Russian GDP Growth at 1.6% as Economy Weakest
Since 2009 Bloomberg Magazine; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-17/russian-gdp-growth-at-16-as-economy-weakest-since-2009.html
Russias economy grew at the weakest pace since 2009 in the first quarter as the euro
areas longest recession hurt demand for commodity exports and investment at companies including OAO Gazprom cooled. Gross
domestic product rose 1.6 percent from a year earlier, slowing for a fifth
consecutive quarter, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. That compares with a median estimate of
1.2 percent in a Bloomberg survey of 23 economists and a 2.1 percent pace in the final three months of 2012. The Economy Ministry estimated first-quarter growth at 1.1
The economy of the worlds largest energy exporter is

grinding to a halt as the recession in the euro area, which accounts for about half of Russian
percent. 4:29
trade, extended into a sixth quarter. Thats prompting companies to trim investment, while government spending on the 2014 Sochi Olympics is drawing to a close and
The main reasons for the slowdown are the generally

negative environment and, as a result, weak exports, said Vladimir Osakovskiy, chief
economist for Russia at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Moscow. Theres also a fairly noticeable stagnation
in investment demand, primarily because of the weak exports . Lagging
Behind Russian stocks have underperformed emerging- and developedmarket peers, with the Micex Index (INDEXCF) down 2.5 percent in the first three months, compared with a 2 percent decline in the MSCI Emerging
public-wage growth slows.
Markets Index and a 10 percent advance for the S&P 500. Russias benchmark was up for the first time in six days, rising 2.1 percent to 1,401.79 at the close in Moscow.
The ruble recorded first-quarter depreciation for the first time since
2009, weakening 0.4 percent against the central banks target basket of dollars and euros. It was little changed at 35.4228. The GDP slowdown prompted the
Economy Ministry last month to cut its 2013 growth forecast to 2.4 percent from 3.7 percent. That is slower than last years 3.4 percent expansion. The ministry reiterated
the forecast in an e-mailed statement today, saying a review of the forecast was planned in September at the earliest. Russia probably wont slide into recession without
an external shock, such as a downturn in the global economy, according to Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach. While the euro area is stagnating, some improvement
there is expected in the second half, he told reporters yesterday. Stagnation Evil For us, stagnation and low growth are no less of an evil and no less of a threat,
Klepach said after a government meeting in Moscow. Accelerating the pace of growth without starting serious, national macroeconomic projects is impossible. The
government this week submitted a draft plan to revive the economy to President Vladimir Putin, with measures including lowering bank lending rates and slowing increases
With the slowdown being driven in part by structural

factors, we fear there is little fiscal or monetary policy can do to boost
growth without stoking inflation pressures, Liza Ermolenko, an emerging-markets economist at Capital
in utilities tariffs.
Economics in London, said in a research note. One of the most striking features of the recent slowdown is that growth slowed despite the fact that oil prices have
remained high. Urals crude, the countrys main export blend, averaged $110.77 a barrel in the first quarter, compared with $116.67 a year earlier, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. The price for exports via northwest Europe was $102.73 today. Investment Contracts Fixed investment fell 0.8 percent from a year earlier in
Investment by Russias biggest

infrastructure companies dropped 10 percent last year and may tumble 12 percent to 13
percent in 2013, led by Gazprom, Economy Minister Andrei Belousov said yesterday. The slowdown has set off
an argument between the government and central bank about
whether interest rates are to blame. The Economy Ministry has called for lower borrowing costs and higher investment
March, the second contraction in four months, according to the statistics service.
spending by the state to stimulate domestic demand. Bank Rossii has argued that unemployment near record lows and consumer-lending growth at almost 40 percent
mean cheaper loans would only fuel inflation. Low expectations for the first quarter have been formed by the Economy Ministry, which estimated GDP growth at 1.1
percent, said Julia Tsepliaeva, head of research at BNP Paribas SA in Moscow. The ministry may have been aiming to trigger aggressive economic stimulus to stave off
recession risks, she said in a note to clients. Holding Rates Monetary-policy makers led by central bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev, who steps down next month, have
resisted calls to lower Russias key rates as inflation remains more than one percentage point above their 5 percent to 6 percent target range. They kept the refinancing
The outlook is not looking positive for Russia

at this stage, Piotr Matys, an emerging-market economist at 4cast Ltd. in London, said by phone. The government will
seriously have to start implementing some bold structural reforms to
reduce corruption, improve investment sentiment.
rate at 8.25 percent for an eighth month this week.

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6/4 Econ Updates

Economy growing now and more government stimulus is
the only deterrent in continued growthprefer this
evidence, its predictive.
AP May 30, 2013, U.S. Economy Growing Slowly Jackson Free Press-
Associated Press; http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2013/may/30/useconomy-growing-slowly/, KTG

WASHINGTON (AP) The U.S. economy grew at a modest 2.4 percent annual
rate from January through March, slightly slower than initially estimated. Consumer spending was
stronger than first thought, but businesses restocked more slowly and state
and local government spending cuts were deeper. #The Commerce Department said Thursday that economic
growth in the first quarter was only marginally below the 2.5 percent rate estimated last month. That's still much
faster than the 0.4 percent growth during the October-December quarter.
#Economists believe growth is slowing to around a 2 percent rate in the April-June quarter, as the economy adjusts to
federal spending cuts, higher taxes and further global weakness. Still,
many say the decline may not be as severe as once thought. That's because solid
hiring, surging home prices and record stock gains should keep
consumers spending. #Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that the
small revision to first-quarter growth supported her view that the economy will grow a moderate
2.2 percent for the year, the same as last year. #Still, Lee expects growth to
improve to 3.2 percent in 2014, as the job market accelerates and consumers grow more confident in the economy.
#Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of economic activity as
measured by the gross domestic product. GDP is the economy's total output of goods and services, from haircuts and computers to trucks and
aircraft carriers. #The government's second look at first-quarter growth showed that consumer spending roared ahead at a 3.4 percent rate.
That's the fastest spending growth in more than two years and even stronger than the 3.2 percent rate estimated last month. #Healthy
consumer spending shows many Americans are shrugging off an increase this year in Social Security taxes that has reduced most paychecks.
#And more consumer demand could also prompt businesses to restock at a faster rate later this year. Business inventories grew in the first
A big reason that

consumers have been able to withstand the higher taxes is the job
market has improved. Employers have added an average of 208,000 jobs a month since November. That's well above
the monthly average of 138,000 during the previous six months. #Surging stock prices and steady
home-price increases have also allowed Americans to regain the $16
trillion in wealth they lost to the Great Recession. Higher wealth tends to embolden
quarter but at a slightly slower pace than first estimated. That was a key reason for the small revision. #
people to spend more. Some economists have said the increase in home prices alone could boost consumer spending enough to offset a Social
The weakest area of the economy continues to be

government spending, which fell for the 10th time in the last 11 quarters. The 4.9
Security tax increase. #
percent rate of decline was even larger than first estimated, reflecting further drops in defense spending and weaker activity at the state and
with the federal government furloughing workers and trimming other

spending to meet the mandates of the sequester, government activity will be a drag on
growth for the rest of the year. #The housing recovery continued to
add to growth at the start of the year. Home construction, one of the economy's top performers, grew
local level. #And
at an annual rate of 12.1 percent in the first quarter, its third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. #Businesses, however, reduced the
pace of their investment in equipment and computer software. That slowed to a growth rate of 4.6 percent in the first quarter, down from
growth of 11.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
Economy low- jobs prove.

Annalyn Kurtz, 5/2/13, April jobs report preview: More slow hiring ahead
CNN Money, http://economy.money.cnn.com/2013/05/02/april-jobs-reportpreview/

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The Labor Department will release its latest update on the U.S. job
market Friday morning, and the outlook is neither rosy nor gloom and doom. Economists
surveyed by CNNMoney are expecting 140,000 jobs were created in April. While that would be an improvement
compared to the meager 88,000 jobs added in March, it's really not much to write home about either .
Over the
past 12 months, the U.S. economy added an average of 159,000 jobs
a month. Anything around that level is just more of the same slow
hiring. Hiring at that pace is also not enough to bring the
unemployment rate down significantly, which is exactly why
economists are predicting unemployment will be unchanged at 7.6%. Last
month, the unemployment rate fell largely because 500,000 people dropped out of the labor force. As of March, only
63.3% of the civilian population, over age 16, was participating in the job market. That's the lowest labor force
We lost 8.8
million jobs from the peak of the job market in January 2008, to its trough in February 2010. We have since
participation rate since May 1979, and we will closely be watching those figures for improvement.
gained 5.9 million jobs or roughly two thirds -- back. This chart shows the total number of employees in the U.S. over the
past six years.
Econ lowdollar is falling and currency competition.

Bloomberg, May 30 2013, Dollar Falls to Three-Week Low on U.S.
Economy; Volatility Rises, Joseph Ciolli;
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/yen-remains-higher-amiddeclines-in-global-stocks-boj-concern.html, KTG
The dollar dropped to a three-week low versus the euro as the U.S.
economy expanded less than previously estimated and joblessbenefit claims rose, reducing speculation the Federal Reserve will cut back on stimulus. The
yen strengthened versus the greenback after Reuters reported
Japans public pension fund may allow its investment in domestic
stocks to grow, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. Swedens krona
rallied versus all of its 16 most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg. A
gauge of currency-price swings climbed to the highest level in almost a year. 4:25 May 30 (Bloomberg) -Thio Chin Loo, a senior currency analyst at BNP Paribas SA in Singapore, talks about the yen, the baht and
the Australian dollar. She speaks with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)
The data this morning is weighing on the dollar, Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in
Washington at the currency brokerage Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., said in a telephone
interview. Its
prompting investors to pare back exposure on the dollar

a little bit. But while the data was a little worse than expected, its
probably not enough to derail talk of Fed tapering just yet . The U.S.
currency slid 0.8 percent to $1.3050 per euro at 5 p.m. New York time. It touched $1.3061, the weakest
level since May 9, crossed 50- and 200-day moving averages and pared a monthly advance to 0.9 percent.
The dollar lost 0.4 percent to 100.73 yen. It touched 100.47, also the weakest since May 9, when the
Japanese currency depreciated past 100 for the first time in four years. The euro gained 0.4 percent to
131.43 yen. JPMorgan Chase & Co.s Global FX Volatility Index reached 10.05 percent, the highest level
since June 28.
Economy is low due to business, finance, and gross debt

prefer this evidence, its predictive.
E-21 3/11/2013, NEW FED DATA: ECONOMY DROWNING IN FEDERAL
DEBT Organization for Economic Policies for the 21 st Century;
http://www.economics21.org/commentary/new-fed-data-economy-drowningfederal-debt , KTG
Each quarter, the Federal Reserve publishes the Flow of Funds accounts, which provide a
summary of the conditions of the consolidated balance sheet of the
United States and its constituent parts: households, nonfinancial
businesses, financial intermediaries, and government. The U.S.
national balance sheet continues to deteriorate, with a record $56.3 trillion in gross debt

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debt continues to set

records relative to the size of the economy. Although this negative news is offset somewhat by
outstanding relative to $15.8 trillion in national income (GDP). At 357% of GDP, gross
the increased value of stocks and homes, the basic message to be drawn from the Fed data is that the economy is drowning in debt, nearly all
of the recent increase of which has come from the Federal government. These models suggest that the basic problem with the current
net national
savings not only turned negative during the recession, but has remained
negative since (see Figure 1). Gross national savings is the sum of household
savings, the retained earnings of businesses, and the consolidated government (federal, state, and local) budget balance. In 2012,
economy is excess savings. Yet, whats been most interesting about the Obama years has been the way
gross national savings totaled $1.98 trillion. During the same year, the depreciation of the existing capital stock was estimated to be $2.01
net savings (gross savings depreciation) was -$31 billion. This means that the U.S.
had to import $31 billion of capital from abroad simply to raise the funds necessary to
replace depreciated assets and keep the capital stock from contracting. Keynes popularized the theory of the
trillion. As a result,
paradox of thrift, which argues that an increase in desired savings in excess of investment demand can lead to a reduction in income, which
nce economic activity is determined by

expenditure, a fall in expenditures from an increase in desired
savings reduces income, which, in turn, reduces the total amount of
savings in the economy. Surely, households were overleveraged in 2008, when household debt reached an all-time
causes total savings to fall. The basic premise is that si
record of 97% of GDP. As a result, it is perfectly understandable that the household current account balance (income relative to spending)
shifted into positive territory in 2008 and has remained there since. Thanks to savings in excess of spending (and record defaults on mortgage
), household debt is down to 80% of GDP
debt
, the lowest level since 2003. Figure 2: U.S.
Household Current Account Balance But its not clear why this required household deleveraging could not be accommodated by other sectors
nonfinancial businesses would use the extra savings

generated by the household sector to make productivity-enhancing
investment. This investment channel is all but ruled out by the pure Keynesian models, which assume that the business sector
of the economy. Ideally,
simply responds passively to households expenditures; each period, the amount produced by businesses is exactly the amount demanded.
The problem is that businesses must invest and hire to have the capital necessary to meet household demand. The rate of this investment is
generally determined by the financial condition of businesses, corporate profits, and the relationship between the expected return on capital
and borrowing costs. The rate of business investment also determines payroll employment growth (see Figure 3). Businesses balance sheets
After the initial shock

of 2008-2009, it would have been reasonable to expect businesses to
increase investment in both physical and human capital (i.e. hiring) substantially to
take advantage of solid balance sheets, record low borrowing costs, and record profits. T his could have been
expected to create a virtuous cycle, as increased business spending
and hiring boosts incomes, increases employment, and leads to
growth in household demand. Instead, this virtuous cycle never
materialized, as businesses simply either retained their profits and
cash flow, or increased dividends and stock buybacks. As shown in Figure 4,
were healthy entering the crisis, with debt levels close to historical averages as share of GDP.
nonfinancial businesses continue to run current account surpluses averaging 2% of GDP, as businesses hoard cash instead of hiring and
investing. Figure 3: Relationship Between Business Investment and Job Growth (JEC) Figure 4: U.S. Nonfinancial Businesses Current Account
Balance Businesses reluctance to invest is understandable given the huge increase in government indebtedness during the Obama years.
The doubling of
the publicly-held debt over the past four years to $12 trillion has
increased the present value of future tax liabilities by $6 trillion. This
When the government issues debt, it creates future tax liabilities that must be financed by the private sector.
increase comes in addition to the surge in future entitlement spending, which will create trillions of dollars in additional future tax liabilities.
Obama Administration has not

provided a plan to explain who is going to bear it. Until Washington
reduces the size of the future burden through entitlement reform and determines
what specific households and businesses are going to bear it
through tax reform, investment and hiring are likely to remain
muted.
The problem is not only the size of the future tax burden, but the fact that the

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Dam Safety NDSP Negative

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1NC
1. Transportation must have the primary purpose of
moving people or goodsaff doesnt do that.
DoE 8 (United States Department of Energy Energy Intense Indicators in
the U.S., Terminology and Definitions, 4-22,

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/intensityindicators/trend_definitions.html
)
Transportation sector
An end-use sector that consists of all vehicles whose primary

purpose is transporting people and/or goods from one physical
location to another. Included are automobiles; trucks; buses;
motorcycles; trains, subways, and other rail vehicles; aircraft; and ships, barges,
and other waterborne vehicles. Vehicles whose primary purpose is not
transportation (e.g., construction cranes and bulldozers, farming vehicles,
and warehouse tractors and forklifts) are classified in the sector of
their primary use. (see the EIA glossary).
2. Nothing in the National Dam Safety Program is topical

Ill make this very clearNDSP includes security systems,
helicopters AKA vehicles, telecommunications, and
various other miscellaneous un-topical stuff.
1AC Author, ASDSO, 2012, What is the National Dam Safety &
Security Program and Why Should It Continue? ASSOCIATION OF STATE
DAM SAFETY OFFICIALS (ASDSO) 450 OLD VINE ST. LEXINGTON, KY 40507
859.257.5140 FEMAs National Dam Safety & Security Program is vital for
the continuing progress toward improved public safety and mitigation of
disasters from dam failures. Ht tp : / / w w w . d a m s a f et y . o r g /m e d I
a/ D o c u me n t s /L e g I s la t I v e% 2 0H a n d ou ts/NDSPAHandout.pdf,
KTG
NDSP Assistance Grants to State Regulatory Programs Made the
Following Possible: Dam safety-related training for state
personnel and training in the field for dam owners to conduct annual maintenance reviews
Purchase of equipment, including state-of-the-art computer systems and software; new
equipment to aid in engineering analysis; video inspection cameras to inspect conduits
through dams; laptop computers for use in the field to complete inspection reports and other
surveying equipment; a four-wheel drive vehicle on which

to mount a survey unit; and a TV-VCR to review conduit inspection
videos Revision of state maintenance and operation guidelines Increase
in the number of dam inspections Increase in the submittal of
Emergency Action Plans (EAP) Increase in the turnaround time on the review and
issuance of permits Improved coordination with state emergency preparedness officials The
testing of EAP procedures through actual simulations of dam failures
Use of helicopters to reach some remote dams for inspections, and to reduce travel time to other
dams for inspections Improvements to dam inventory databases
Improved telecommunications Identification of dams to be repaired or removed
Conduct of dam safety awareness workshops Creation of dam safety videos and
correspondence;

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Keerthi Gondi
outreach materials Development of a public relations plan and a

dam safety newsletter
3. Well link each of those scenarios to a violation

a) Surveillance and security systems arent topical
Musick 10 (Nathan, Microeconomic and Financial Studies Division United
States Congressional Budget Office, Public Spending on Transportation and
Water Infrastructure, p. 2)
Although different definitions of "infrastructure" exist, this report
focuses on two types that claim a significant amount of federal resources: transportation and
water. Those types of infrastructure share the economic characteristics of being relatively capital intensive
and producing services under public management that facilitate private economic activity. They are
typically the types examined by studies that attempt to calculate the payoff, in terms of benefits to the
U.S. economy) of the public sector's funding of infrastructure. For the purposes of CBO's analysis,
"transportation infrastructure" includes the systems and facilities that

support the following types of activities: Vehicular transportation: highways,
roads, bridges, and tunnels; Mass transit subways, buses, and commuter rail; Rail
transport primarily the intercity service provided by Amtrak;* Civil aviation: airport terminals,
runways, and taxi-ways, and facilities and navigational equipment for air traffic control: and Water
transportation: waterways, ports, vessel*, and navigational systems. The category "water
infrastructure" includes facilities that provide the following: Water resources: containment systems, such
as dams, levees, reservoirs, and watersheds; and sources of fresh water such as lakes and rivers; and
Water utilities: supply systems for distributing potable water, and wastewater and sewage treatment
Consistent with CBO'% previous reports on public

spending for transportation and water infrastructure, this update
excludes spending that is associated with such infrastructure but
does not contribute directly to the provision of infrastructure
facilities or certain strictly defined infrastructure services. Examples
of excluded spending are federal outlays for homeland security (which
are especially pertinent to aviation), law enforcement and military functions (such
as those carried out by the Coast Guard), and cleanup operations (such as
those conducted by the Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane
Katrina in 2005).
systems and plants.
b) Vehicles arent either

EEA 12 - European Environmental Agency ("Transportation Infrastructure
Investments" European Environment Agency, February 17,

2012 http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/infrastructureinvestments)
The term transport infrastructure refers only to infrastructures that
are open to the general public. It covers buildings and other
constructions as well as machinery and equipment, but it excludes
vehicles and rolling stock.
c) Communications is a distinct category of

infrastructure --- its massive
Faulkenberry 11 (Ken, MBA University of Southern California,
Infrastructure Investment: Energy, Transportation, Communications, &
Utilities, Arbor Asset Allocation Model Portfolio Blog, September,

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Keerthi Gondi
http://blog.arborinvestmentplanner.com/2011/09/infrastructure-investmentenergy-transportation-communications-utilities/)
Transportation Infrastructure Over the last several decades Americas infrastructure
spending has been less than one-half other developed nations and only a quarter of emerging market
countries. Civil engineers give our transport structures low marks. Our roads, railways, ports, and airports
are all judged mediocre. It has become well recognized that we must invest more in upgrading our
transportation infrastructure. But because of the years of neglect, substantial increases in operation and
maintenance budgets will also be required. The above engineering and construction firms could also
Communications Infrastructure
Communications infrastructure would include items we take for
granted everyday, such as the internet , telephone , television
benefit from transportation infrastructure spending.
and satellite technology. Individual companies such

as Cisco (CSCO) (internet) AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) (telephone), Comcast (CMCSA)
(television), Boeing (BA) and Loral Space & Communications (LORL) (satellites), all play
major roles in developing the communications infrastructure.
(including cable TV),
4. Voting Issue
a. Limitstheir inclusion of military, surveillance,
vehicles, and communication infrastructure absolutely
EXPLODES neg research burdenmakes it almost
impossible for us to prep and exponentially expands the
topic.
b. Groundwe lose links to our generic TI links and
tradeoff because they can claim any of those 3 areas.
THIS IS NOT A JOKE OF A TOPICALITY ARGUMENT. THEY
LITERALLY STEAL EVERYTHING WE CAN RUN.
c. Even if they win this topicality argument, theyre
effects topical. At best, Dam construction and investment
only comes after all the miscellaneous untopical parts I
listed above.
Investment is direct spending on infrastructure and
grants to support private sector asset creationmeans Aff
is FX-T.
Scotland 5 (Government of Scotland, Infrastructure Investment Plan:
Investing in the Future of Scotland, February,
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/02/20756/53558)
Appendix A: Technical Definitions of Infrastructure Investment
The public expenditure system uses different definitions of capital for

budgeting purposes than for accounting purposes - both of which exclude elements of
infrastructure investment in the wider sense used elsewhere in this
publication.
For accounting purposes, capital spending is those resources used to
create a fixed asset which goes on a Government Department's balance sheet.
Assets are classified as fixed if they are owned by an organisation and have an ongoing benefit (generally

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Keerthi Gondi
over more than one year). If spending is not classified as being on fixed assets then it is treated as revenue
expenditure.
For budgeting purposes, what scores within Capital Delegated Expenditure Limits (capital DEL) is
everything that scores as capital for accounting purposes, as well as capital grants to and supported
borrowing by local authorities and spending by Non-Departmental Public Bodies that will be included as
capital in their accounts. For public corporations such as Scottish Water, capital DEL is the net lending to
the relevant public corporation by the department and not the public corporation's own self-financed
capital spending.
definition of net investment for purposes such as

incorporates spending within capital DEL as well as grants
made to support capital spending (asset creation or enhancement)
by private sector organisations such as Higher and Further Education Institutions. It
does not include the capital element of PPP deals.
Net Investment - The Scottish Executive's
the net investment rule
FX-T is badallows them to spike out of anything through

talking about extra effects planks and explodes limits
because infinite number of effectsvoter for education
and fairness.
d. Voter for education, fairness, and jurisdiction.
e. HOLD THEM TO A HIGH THRESHOLD ON THIS
TOPICALITY ARGUMENTWEVE SPENT A GOOD 2-3
MINUTES ON IT IN THE 1NCMAKE THEM ANSWER
EVERYTHING.

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USACE DSP CP

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1NC
Text: The United States Army Corps of Engineers should
prioritize, implement, and fulfill the Dam Safety Program
for periodic dam safety inspections and evaluations in the
United States.
Contention 1 is Competitionthe Counterplan tests the
agent of the affirmative plan and the specific program to
invest in Dam Safety.
Contention 2 is Solvency
The Army Corps Dam Safety Program can successfully
ensure Dam safety and reliability.
United States Army Corps of Engineers, 2013, Dam Safety
Program,
http://www.usace.army.mil/Missions/CivilWorks/DamSafetyProgram.aspx, KTG
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Dam Safety Program uses a riskinformed approach to manage its portfolio of 694 dams, with public safety the
number one priority. This robust risk-informed approach is a best practice
adopted to develop balanced and informed assessments of the safety of our
dams and to evaluate, prioritize and justify dam safety decisions. Critical to
an effective safety program is, of course, the focus on public safety, but it
also requires continuous and periodic project inspections and evaluations.
The Dam Safety Program seeks to ensure that USACE owned and operated
dams do not present unacceptable risks to people, property, or the
environment, with the emphasis on people. USACE has learned a great deal
about its dams through an initial screening of its portfolio. More importantly,
however, are the lessons we learn about how to continually adjust and fine
tune the program.
The Army Corps have full jurisdiction over Dam Safety

the USACE Dam Safety Program successfully integrates
organization, inspection, policies and procedures, which
the AFF lacks.
United States Army Corps of Engineers, 2013, Dam Safety
Program: Program Activities,
http://www.usace.army.mil/Missions/CivilWorks/DamSafetyProgram.aspx, KTG
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) owns 694 dams, Nationwide and
in Puerto Rico. USACE dams deliver enormous benefits to the nation,
including flood risk management, navigation, hydropower, water supply, fish
and wildlife conservation, and recreation. USACE dams avoid $236 billion in
direct damages and preserve $25 billion a year in economic benefits.
Approximately 95 percent of the dams managed by USACE are more than 30
years old, and 52 percent have reached or exceeded the 50-year service lives
for which they were designed. Approximately 15 million people are at risk

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from USACE dams. Because USACE is responsible for making sure its dams do
not present unacceptable risks to the public, USACE transitioned from a solely
standards-based approach for its dam safety program to a dam safety
portfolio risk management approach. A key mission of the USACE dam safety
program is to achieve an equitable and reasonably low level of risk to the
public from its dams. The USACE dam safety program is managed from a riskinformed USACE-wide portfolio perspective applied to all features of all dams
on a continuing basis. The urgency of actions, including funding, to reduce
risks in the short term and in the long term is commensurate with the level of
risk based on current knowledge. USACE provides risk information to internal
and external stakeholders. An informed and engaged public understands risk
and can contribute to the evaluation of risk reduction options and can take
some degree of responsibility for its safety. There has been tremendous
progress in the USACE Dam Safety Program in the past six years. The
program has transitioned from testing new organizational policies,
procedures, and organizational elements to operational and production
mode. Many great ideas for different program elements have been put in
place over the last few years including the implementation of a new
comprehensive dam safety regulation that fully embraces and operationalizes
USACEs new risk-informed approach, as well as the establishment of
production centers and an assortment of new management tools.
**Use FEMA Turns as Net Benefit**

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Keerthi Gondi
Extensions
The counterplan is the implement the USACE Dam Safety
program instead of the affirmative FEMA National Dam
Safety Program. This avoids the FEMA turns because we
dont use FEMA.
Extend USACE 13Army DSP can successfully ensure dam
safety and reliabilityit fine tunes dam safety.
Extend USACE 13 #2USACE has full jurisdiction over
dams in the first places, meaning they have greatest
inspection, organization, and procedures.

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1NC
Their inherency evidence says they use FEMA for funding
and implementation.
Turn, thats badFEMA hurts the process:
1. Increased DATA, measuring, and reporting only risks
delays and destroys effective response and risks impacts.
Global Accountability Office 11, Government Accountability Office,
Statement of William O. Jenkins, Jr., Director Homeland Security and Justice
Issues , March 17, 2011, Testimony Before the Committee on Homeland
Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S.Senate, MEASURING DISASTER
PREPAREDNESS FEMA Has Made Limited Progress in Assessing National
Capabilities, PDF
We reported in July 2005 that DHS had identified potential challenges in gathering the
information needed to assess capabilities, including determining
how to aggregate data from federal, state, local, and tribal
governments and others and integrating self-assessment and external assessment approaches. In
reviewing FEMA and the Militarys efforts to assess capabilities , we further reported in April
2009 that FEMA and space agencies faced methodological challenges with
regard to (1) differences in data available, (2) variations in reporting
structures across states, and (3) variations in the level of detail
within data sources requiring subjective interpretation. We recommended
that FEMA enhance its project management plan to include milestone dates, among other things, a
recommendation to which DHS concurred. In October 2010, we reported that FEMA had enhanced its
project management plan. Nonetheless, the challenges we reported in July 2005 and April 2009 faced by
DHS and FEMA, respectively, in their efforts to measure preparedness and establish a system of metrics to
assess national capabilities have proved to be difficult for them to overcome. We reported that in October
2010, in general,
FEMA officials said that evaluation efforts they used to

collect data on national preparedness capabilities were useful for
their respective purposes, but that the extended data collected
were limited by data reliability and measurement issues related to
the lack of standardization in the collection of data.
2. Spending more money for FEMA response hurts FEMA

and wastes taxpayer moneyturns any economy claims.
Jena Baker McNeill and Matt A. Mayer, April 21 2010, The Solution to
FEMAs Budget Woes Is Not More Money posted to The Heritage Foundation;
McNeill is Heritage Foundation Senior policy analyst of Homeland Security;
Mayer is a visiting fellow,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2010/04/the-solution-to-femasbudget-woes-is-not-more-money, KTG
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator W. Craig Fugate recently sent a letter
to Congress indicating serious budget shortfalls that could
jeopardize FEMAs ability to respond to disasters. It is expected that this
letter will be followed by a request for $5.1 billion in emergency supplemental
funding from Congress. Addressing budget shortfalls by pumping additional
dollars into the agency will only waste more taxpayer money without

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Keerthi Gondi
actually solving the fiscal problems plaguing FEMA. For too long,
FEMA has federalized disaster response to the point where every
routine disaster receives an onslaught of federal funds. FEMA should
look to radically redefine what it does and what it doesnt, thereby
putting states and locals back in the drivers seat of disaster
responseCongress and the Administration could simply grant FEMA another round of taxpayer
dollars as a short-term band-aid for FEMA budget woes. But this would ensure another year
that the fundamental problems with FEMAs disaster response
framework remain in placeleaving state and local governments
less prepared and FEMA undoubtedly ill-equipped for the next truly catastrophic disaster.
3. This guts the security advantageFEMA declares

systems as structurally deficient and declares disasters
for more money.
In the short span of 16 years, the yearly average of FEMA
declarations has tripled from 43 under President George H. W. Bush to 89 under President
Clinton to 130 under President George W. Bush. In his first year, President Barack Obama issued 108
declarationsthe 12th highest in FEMA historywithout the occurrence of one hurricane or other major
disaster. In the first three months of 2010, President Obama has issued 32 declarations, which puts him on
The reason for the

increase in disaster declarations is largely related to the application
of the controlling federal statute for disasters, the Robert T. Stafford Disaster
Relief and Emergency Assistance Act of 1988. Under this act, the federal government
pays 75100 percent of disaster response bills as long as FEMA has
issued a disaster declaration. Meeting the definition for such a
declaration is relatively easy: The disaster in question must be of
such severity and magnitude that effective response is beyond the
capabilities of the State and the affected local governments and that
Federal assistance is necessary. The financial threshold is also low: when a states
pace for 128 declarations for the yearthe sixth most in FEMA history.
storm-related damages reach $1.29 per capita, [which] for several states that is less than $1 million in
damages.
4. FEMA fails to political agendacauses cost overruns

and failure to respond in most states.
Truly catastrophic disasters that overwhelm state and local
governments are a welcome forum for FEMA intervention; that is, after all,
the very purpose of FEMA declarations. However, all too often disaster politics,
rather than effective policy, drive decisions on disaster response.
Washington policymakers simply do not know how to say no to

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Keerthi Gondi
spending more on disasters. Consequently, FEMA can no longer meet

keep its financial commitments. In fact, the organization owes
billions of dollars to states and local governments for previous
disasters, including $1.7 billion to local and state governments in the Gulf Coast region from
Hurricane Katrina. Disturbingly, these funds were spent on the backs of
the American taxpayersdespite benefiting only a handful of states
that frequently experience natural disasters. For example, Michigan, which houses
3 percent of the U.S. population, receives only 1 percent of the money from FEMA declarations. Yet on
average, 714,530 Michiganders paid disaster response taxes to support each and every one of the FEMA
As a result, Michigan citizens pay higher taxes, while other

states receive more money from FEMA.
declarations.
Essentially, these arguments function in that the

affirmative teams usage of FEMA as a savior from Dam
disasters actually result in the problems themselves, as
FEMA spending is unsustainable and leaves people
vulnerable.

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Extensions
1. Extend GAO 11increasing the amount of data and
measurements, which aff does through inspections, only
destroys response by creating data overload resulting in
unreliability.
2. Extend first McNeill and Mayer cardSpending more
money on FEMA wastes taxpayer money and leaves states
less prepared due to cost overruns.
3. Extend second McNeill and Mayer cardthat uniquely
guts the security advantage, because FEMA would run out
of money. They would then declare random security
breaches and disasters for more federal funding, meaning
disaster response becomes overstretched.
4. Extend final McNeill and Mayer cardpolitics influences
FEMA disaster response decisions more than actual
humanitarianism, meaning some states get less funding
than others resulting in higher magnitude of threat.
5. FEMA is 37 for 37 scenarios behind killing effective
relief
GAO, Government Accountability Office, Statement of William O. Jenkins, Jr.,
Director Homeland Security and Justice Issues , March 17, 2011, Testimony
Before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs,
U.S.Senate, MEASURING DISASTER PREPAREDNESS FEMA Has Made Limited
Progress in Assessing National Capabilities, PDF
InApril2009,wereportedthatestablishingquantifiablemetricsfortargetcapabilitieswasaprerequisitetodevelopingassessment
datathatcanbecomparedacrossalllevelsofgovernment.Atthetimeofourreview,FEMAwasintheprocessofrefiningthetarget
capabilitiestomakethemmoremeasurableandtoprovidestateandlocaljurisdictionswithadditionalguidanceonthelevelsof
capabilitytheyneed.Specifically,
FEMA planned to develop quantifiable metricsor

performance objectivesfor each of the 37 target capabilities that
are to outline specific capability targets that jurisdictions(suchascities)of
varying size should strive to meet, being cognizant of the fact that
there is not a one size fits all approach to preparedness. However,
FEMA has not yet completed these quantifiable metrics for its 37
target capabilities, and it is unclear when it plans to do so.
6. Hurricane Sandy proved our FEMA turns and offense

they failed miserable.
Reason Organization, November 8, 2012, After Sandy, FEMA Fails
and Volunteers Step In, Reason Organization is a thinktank for free minds
and free markets, http://reason.com/24-7/2012/11/08/after-sandy-fema-failsand-volunteers-st, KTG

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Volunteers and disaster victims have taken rescue, recovery and

security into their own hands on New York's storm-ravaged borough
of Staten Island, where they say FEMA has forgotten them. Already
without power for more than a week in the wake of superstorm Sandy, hard-hit residents of the borough's
South Shore braved a nor'easter Wednesday night, many -- perhaps hundreds -- huddling in condemned
homes and ignoring orders to evacuate out of fear looters would take what little Mother Nature has left
them "FEMA
packed up everything yesterday and left the area," said

haven't
MaryLou Wong, whose home in the Midland Beach neighborhood was destroyed. " They
come back." Punch-drunk residents' ire is also aimed at the city -- which is going door-to-door to
order people out of their homes -- at the American Red Cross, which some say has not done enough and at
police and firefighters. One group of residents, calling themselves the "Brown Cross," is
patrolling the devastated streets, armed with walkie-talkies, and helping residents clear debris and pump
water from their flooded homes. The group started with a dozen men, and has swollen to more than 100.
done more for our community than FEMA, the Red Cross and the National
Guard combined, directly hitting houses and people in need , Frank Recce, the 24Weve
year-old longshoreman and Iraq Army veteran who organized the group, told FoxNews.com. Staten Island
residents fed up with FEMA organize own relief efforts Last week, when President Obama toured the New
Jersey and New York coastal areas hit hard by Sandy, he vowed to get help to the victims quickly. No
bureaucracy. No red tape, Obama vowed. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said
Thursday that the storm could cost the state $33 billion. FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said the agency
is helping, and urged people to go to www.disasterassistance.gov or call 1-800-621-FEMA (3362). He also
said temporary, manufactured housing is on the way. Officials described the homes are trailers, but are
different from those used to house victims of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans seven years ago. "FEMA is
part of a big team on the response and recovery to Sandy, and we continue to closely coordinate with our
But it didn't sit right with many

that FEMA, citing the weather, closed temporary recovery centers where people apply for help - as the nor'easter bore down on the
borough. They closed Tuesday at 6 p.m. due to safety concerns in advance of the nor'easter that hit
partners in and outside of government," Fugate said.
the borough.
7. FEMA has no procedures, resulting in program

incompletion.
Government Accountability Office 2009, April 2009, Government
Accountability Office, Testimony Before the Committee on Homeland Security
and Governmental Affairs, U.S .Senate, NATIONAL PREPAREDNESS: FEMA
Has Made Progress, but Needs to Complete and Integrate Planning, Exercise,
and Assessment Efforts, PDF , KTG
FEMA has developed guidance to implement the National Exercise
Program; however, it faces challenges in meeting statutory and
program requirements in conducting the program. These challenges
have arisen because FEMA lacks procedures that detail how it will
work with federal entities and monitor states to ensure these
entities carry out program requirements. In addition, FEMA faces
challenges in measuring the effectiveness of the program because
the databases it uses to measure program performance are
incomplete.

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A2: We Dont Use FEMA

1. Their own inherency ASDSO evidence SAYS THAT THEY
USE FEMA FOR FUNDING AND IMPLEMENTATIONEVEN IF
THEY DONT SPECIFY IN PLAN TEXT, THEIR SOLVENCY
ADVOCATE STATES FEMA IS KEY TO SOLVE.
2. Double bindEither they use FEMA and link to the turns
or they dont use FEMA and cant solve according to their
ASDSO evidence.
3. National Dam Safety Program uses FEMA.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 2012, The National
Dam Safety Program

Research Needs Workshop: Seepage through Embankment Dams, pdf file
accessible from fema.gov, KTG
For 30 years, the Federal Government has been working to protect
Americans from dam failure through the National Dam Safety
Program (NDSP). The NDSP, which is led by FEMA, is a partnership of the states, federal
agencies, and other stakeholders to encourage individual and community responsibility
for dam safety.
4. Shifting advocacies badeven if they didnt explicitly

say it, it was said through the solvency advocate. Voter
for education and fairness because moving target kills
fairness. At the least this is a solvency takeout.

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Keerthi Gondi

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Keerthi Gondi
National Security FLLay

The affirmative will attempt to convince you that
improving the safety of our dams is beneficial for the
United States. However, we will prove to you that
investing in Dam Safety will not actually improve
anything, but rather fails due to many causes.
1.Our first argument will be that of alternate causality. If
a car is failing due to engine failures, flat wheels, and no
headlights, fixing one of those issues does not make the
car drivable. All three issues need to be resolved.
Similarly, if there are other reasons why our Dams are
currently unsafe, then it means that the affirmative plan
will not actually resolve the problem.
A) The first alternate cause for lack of Dam Security is
that state governments do not support dam investment
meaning there are not enough inspectors, operators,
rehabilitation plans, and owner education.
The Association of State Dam Safety Officials in 2012
states, What is the National Dam Safety & Security Program and Why
Should It Continue? ASSOCIATION OF STATE DAM SAFETY OFFICIALS
(ASDSO) 450 OLD VINE ST. LEXINGTON, KY 40507 859.257.5140 FEMAs
National Dam Safety & Security Program is vital for the continuing progress
toward improved public safety and mitigation of disasters from dam
failures. Ht tp : / / w w w . d a m s a f et y . o r g /m e d I a/ D o c u me n t s /L
e g I s la t I v e% 2 0H a n d ou ts/NDSPAHandout.pdf, KTG
There is a serious need, in almost every state, to pump additional
state resources into dam safety programs. It is clear, based on the first
seven years of the NDSP State Assistance Grant Program, that the
additional funds delivered to states through this Program are
providing additional personnel and other resources to state
programs to help carry out the regulatory program. Safety regulation
is essential to reduce the hazards involved with damshazards that cut
across states boundaries. The responsibility rests almost entirely with
the states. States have responsibility for safety regulation over
about 80 percent of the nation's dams. Support for state regulatory
programs is lacking in many states. There are not enough state
inspectors on state staffs to carry out needed inspections of dams. Many
states are simply under-resourced for carrying out the letter of the law. State
budgets for dam safety range from $0 to $6 million. But, the average annual
state dam safety budget is about $450,000. The average number of

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Keerthi Gondi
regulated dams per state is approximately 1,500. The average number of

dam inspectors per state is 6; this means that each dam inspector is
responsible for overseeing the safety of about 250 existing dams,
plus the additional responsibilities of overseeing new construction,
Emergency Action Plans, overseeing rehabs, owner education, etc.
B) The second alternate cause for lack of Dam Security is

that the public does not care about the risks and see it as
exaggeratedcitizens will not buy flood insurance, and
thus communities will lose just as much money.
The public is generally unaware of the benefits dams bring to their
community and to the US as a whole. They are similarly unaware of the effect
a dam failure could have on them, through flooding and the potential for loss
of life or property and the loss of the goods or protection supported by the
dam. Example: many houses are built in dam failure flood inundation
zones. Zoning boards are unaware of this when they develop zones,
developers are unaware of it when they construct within this zone, and
home/property owners buy in this zone completely unaware of what the
consequences might be should the dam fail. A national and local focus
should be placed on increasing public awareness of dam safety similar
to the Flood Insurance Program campaign to increase awareness of the
need to purchase flood insurance.
C) The third alternate cause for lack of Dam Security is

that there are no incoming waves of engineers to
redevelop Dams.

Many in the industry worry that talented young people are decreasingly
interested in the engineering fields related to dam safety engineeringcivil
engineering, agricultural engineering, hydrology/hydraulics, geologyto
name a few. Recruitment of new professionals, coupled with a concerted

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Keerthi Gondi
effort to transfer knowledge from those who are retiring within the field, is
essential for a vital knowledge base and technical capability into the future.
2. No empirical proof of Dam Failure and zero risk of Dam

failure in the future
Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority report on US Dams, Dam
Failure, 2011,
http://www.gbra.org/documents/hazardmitigation/update/Section14DamFailure.pdf, KTG
There are about 80,000 dams in the United States today .6 The State
of Texas has not experienced loss of life or extensive economic
damage due to a dam failure since the first half of the twentieth
century. However, due to limited state staff, many incidents are not reported and, therefore, the actual
number of incidents is likely to be greater. There has not been a recorded dam failure event for any of the
No historical events of
dam failure have been recorded in the United States, though the risk
of dam failure is monitored closely. Due the lack of historical
occurrences, the probability of a future event is unlikely , meaning an event
participating jurisdictions in the basin. Probability of Future Events
is possible in the next ten years.
(GO TO A2 TERRORISM)

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Keerthi Gondi
National Security FLFlow

1.Alternative Causes for Dam Issues
A) No state support for regulations.
1AC Author, ASDSO 2012, What is the National Dam Safety &

KTG
There is a serious need, in almost every state, to pump additional
state resources into dam safety programs. It is clear, based on the first
seven years of the NDSP State Assistance Grant Program, that the
additional funds delivered to states through this Program are
providing additional personnel and other resources to state
programs to help carry out the regulatory program. Safety regulation
is essential to reduce the hazards involved with damshazards that cut
across states boundaries. The responsibility rests almost entirely with
the states. States have responsibility for safety regulation over
about 80 percent of the nation's dams. Support for state regulatory
programs is lacking in many states. There are not enough state
inspectors on state staffs to carry out needed inspections of dams. Many
states are simply under-resourced for carrying out the letter of the law. State
budgets for dam safety range from $0 to $6 million. But, the average annual
state dam safety budget is about $450,000. The average number of
regulated dams per state is approximately 1,500. The average number of
dam inspectors per state is 6; this means that each dam inspector is
responsible for overseeing the safety of about 250 existing dams,
plus the additional responsibilities of overseeing new construction,
Emergency Action Plans, overseeing rehabs, owner education, etc.
B) Public doesnt care, resulting in damage and

retrenchment of safety.
KTG

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Keerthi Gondi
The public is generally unaware of the benefits dams bring to their

community and to the US as a whole. They are similarly unaware of the effect
a dam failure could have on them, through flooding and the potential for loss
of life or property and the loss of the goods or protection supported by the
dam. Example: many houses are built in dam failure flood inundation
zones. Zoning boards are unaware of this when they develop zones,
developers are unaware of it when they construct within this zone, and
home/property owners buy in this zone completely unaware of what the
consequences might be should the dam fail. A national and local focus
should be placed on increasing public awareness of dam safety similar
to the Flood Insurance Program campaign to increase awareness of the
need to purchase flood insurance.
C) No engineers or technicians to actually work on Dams.


KTG
Many in the industry worry that talented young people are decreasingly
interested in the engineering fields related to dam safety engineeringcivil
engineering, agricultural engineering, hydrology/hydraulics, geologyto
name a few. Recruitment of new professionals, coupled with a concerted
effort to transfer knowledge from those who are retiring within the field, is
essential for a vital knowledge base and technical capability into the future.
2. No empirical proof of Dam Failure and zero risk of Dam

failure in the future
Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority report on US Dams, Dam
Failure, 2011,
http://www.gbra.org/documents/hazardmitigation/update/Section14DamFailure.pdf, KTG
There are about 80,000 dams in the United States today .6 The State
of Texas has not experienced loss of life or extensive economic
damage due to a dam failure since the first half of the twentieth
century. However, due to limited state staff, many incidents are not reported and, therefore, the actual
number of incidents is likely to be greater. There has not been a recorded dam failure event for any of the
No historical events of
dam failure have been recorded in the United States, though the risk
of dam failure is monitored closely. Due the lack of historical
occurrences, the probability of a future event is unlikely , meaning an event
participating jurisdictions in the basin. Probability of Future Events
is possible in the next ten years.
(GO TO A2 TERRORISM)

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Extensions

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Solvency FL
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1NC
1. ASDSO evidence is hella biasedit comes from an
associated dedicated to repairing Dams.
2. National Dam Safety Program failsno agency can
implement it and money overstretches success. It also
trades off with more important programs.
Government Accountability Office, May 8 2008, Physical
Infrastructure: Challenges and Investment Options for the Nations
Infrastructure Testimony before the Committee on the Budget and the
Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, U.S. House of
Representatives; Statement of Patricia A. Dalton, Managing Director Physical
Infrastructure Issues; http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08763t.pdf, KTG
To address the challenges facing our nations dams, the Federal
Emergency Management Agency and the National Dam Safety
Review Board identified both short- and long-term goals and
priorities for the National Dam Safety Program17 over the next 5 to 10 years.
They include identifying and remedying deficient dams, increasing dam inspections, increasing the number
of and updating of Emergency Action Plans, achieving the participation of all states in the National Dam
increasing research products disseminated to the dam

safety community, and achieving cost efficiencies. However, according to
the Congressional Research Service, most federal agencies do not
have funding available to immediately undertake all nonurgent
repairs, and at some agencies, dam rehabilitation projects must
compete for funding with other construction projects.18 The Association of
Safety Program,
State Dam Safety Officials reported similar funding constraints on dam investment at the state level.
3. The Federal Government only owns 5% of the nations

damsgovernments only have jurisdiction over federally
owned projects like Levees.
Government Accountability Office, May 8 2008, Physical
Infrastructure: Challenges and Investment Options for the Nations

Infrastructure Testimony before the Committee on the Budget and the
Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, U.S. House of
Representatives; Statement of Patricia A. Dalton, Managing Director Physical
Infrastructure Issues; http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08763t.pdf, KTG
The majority of dams in the United States are privately owned. The
federal government owns and operates about 5 percent of the
nations dams. Levees are typically constructed by the federal
government, and local governments are responsible for their
operation and maintenance.
4. No leadership
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), December 2011,
Review and Evaluation of the National Dam Safety Program A Study
Conducted for the Federal Emergency Management Agency by the Water

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Policy Collaborative, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,

Clark School of Engineering, The University of Maryland, KTG
For the most part, senior leadership within FEMA has had minimal visibility
in the direction and fostering of the dam safety program . To those in and
affected by the dam safety program, the impression is created that the NDSP is
a minor administrative element within the larger FEMA/DHS 31 organization, and
that the attainment of the goals and objectives of the program is of
little direct concern to the FEMA leadership. Unfortunately, this lack of visible,
high-level leadership is taken by the leadership of many States as a
further sign that the NDSP is of minor significance and that therefore, minimal attention needs to be directed to it at the State level . At
the 2011 ASDSO conference, attended by more than 1,000 individuals from the dam safety community, no
senior FEMA official appeared on the plenary program or participated in the conference activities. If the
program is to succeed and the Federal Government is to be seen as the advocate for State dam safety
programs, then senior FEMA leadership needs to be involved on a continuous basis in all big-picture
activities.
5. Public doesnt know the risks so they dont listen to

NDSPsolvency failure.

As indicated in Chapter Three, even those in and associated with the dam
safety community do not believe that the communities that may be
impacted by dam failures or who need knowledge of the dam safety
program are receiving the needed information. Communication of Risk to Those
at Risk This lack of knowledge about dam safety risks exists because
little is being done within the program at either the national or State
level to share information about dam failure inundation areas and
the condition of dams with those that could be affected. Those
affected by dams also should understand the importance of dam
maintenance and the relative risk of a well-maintained dam as
compared to one whose condition is substandard or unknown . The
NDSP has no community outreach efforts underway similar to those being
conducted by RiskMAP. If communities are to become aware of the risks they
face from dams, the NDSP must either establish its own high-level
program or piggyback its program on RiskMAP, which may be a more feasible solution, given resource
shortages. In most flood-prone communities, consideration is already being given to emergency
management and communications during flood events such as integration of emergency management
efforts for both floods and dam breaks to improve communication with local officials and eventually the
public at large. The team consultant on risk communication, Dr. Timothy Tinker, suggests a variety of
approaches that the NDSP could pursue to enhance dam safety risk communications (see Appendix D).
6. No long-term view for the NDSPguts solvency


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The NDSP and its impact are limited by its strategic vision.
Although the current governance model is adequate, the program
must focus on the continued evolution of a holistic, long-term strategic approach to dam safety within the Federal and State
communities that fully incorporates emergency and floodplain
management. This should in no way dilute the critical ongoing efforts to minimize dam failures. The
3.
Board and ICODS have migrated toward operational issues with less focus on the big picture. These
bodies host extensive expertise within the domain of dam safety, and going forward, they need to invest
their unique talents in an effective vision for the larger program.

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Abolish the DHS CP
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1NC
Text: The United States federal government should
abolish the Department of Homeland Security and the
Transportation Security Administration and initiate full
privatization of airport security systems at all major
airports in the United States.
Contention 1 is competition:
Normal means for airport security uses the DHSTSA also
falls under the DHS.
Department of Homeland Security, 2012, Aviation Security,
http://www.dhs.gov/aviation-security, KTG
In response to both 9/11 and evolving threats, and with the help and
support of Congress, DHS has significantly adapted and enhanced its
ability to detect threats through a multi-layered, risk-based system.
Today nearly 51,000 Transportation Security Officers (TSOs), Transportation Security Inspectors, and
Behavior Detection Officers serve on the frontlines at more than 450 U.S. airports. Prior to 9/11, limited
100 percent of
all checked and carry-on baggage is now screened for explosives and
the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) continually assesses intelligence
federal security requirements existed for cargo and baggage screening. Today,
to develop countermeasures in order to enhance its multiple layers of security at airports and onboard
DHS requires all airlines flying to

the U.S. from foreign countries to provide Advance Passenger Information and
aircraft. Enhancing a Secure Travel Experience Today,
Passenger Name Records prior to departure and has expanded trusted traveler programs, expediting travel
provide biometric identification and pass rigorous,

recurrent security checks. More than 2 million passengers have received expedited
for passengers who
screening through TSA Pre security lanes since the initiative began in October 2011. TSA Pre is
currently available in 18 airports for select frequent flyers of participating airlines and members of CBP
Trusted Traveler programs. United Airlines, US Airways, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines and Delta Air
Lines offer benefits of TSA Pre to their eligible frequent travelers.
Contention 2 is Solvency:
DHS bureaucracy kills aviation security efforts and turns
caseabolishing the DHS and the TSA allows more
coordination.
Rittgers, Cato, 2011, Abolish the Department of Homeland Security,
Policy Analysis of the Cato Organization by Executive David Rittgers, No. 683;
http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/PA683.pdf, KTG
After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Congress created
the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), an umbrella organization that would oversee 22 preexisting federal agencies. The idea
was to improve the coordination of the federal governments counterterrorism effort,
but the result has been an ever-expanding bureaucracy. DHS has
too many subdivisions in too many disparate fields to operate
effectively. Agencies with responsibilities for counterfeiting investigations, border security, disaster preparedness, federal law
enforcement training, biological warfare defense, and computer

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incident response find themselves under the same cabinet official.
This arrangement has not enhanced the governments competence.
Americans are not safer because the head of DHS is simultaneously
responsible for airport security and governmental efforts to counter
potential flu epidemics. National defense is a key governmental responsibility, but focusing too many resources on trying to defend
every potential terrorist target is a recipe for wasteful spending.
Our limited resources are better spent on investigating and
arresting aspiring terrorists. DHS responsibilities for aviation
security, domestic surveillance, and port security have made it too easy for
politicians to disguise pork barrel spending in red, white, and blue.
Politicians want to bring money home to their districts, and as a
result, DHS appropriations too often differ from what ought to be
DHS priorities. The Department of Homeland Security should be
abolished and its components re- organized into more practical
groupings. The agencies tasked with immigration, border security,
and customs enforcement belong under the same oversight agency,
which could appropriately be called the Border Security Administration. The Transportation Security Administra- tion and Federal Air
Marshals Service should be abolished, and the federal government
should end support for fusion centers. The remaining DHS
organizations should return to their former parent agencies.
Terrorism remains a serious problem, but policymakers ought to be
more candid with the American public. Instead of pandering to fear
and overreacting to every potential threat, policymakers should
keep the risk of terrorist attacks in perspective and focus public
resources on cost-effective measures.
Privatizing airport security saves taxpayer money and is better than
federal policies.
Privatize Aviation Security The clearest way to reduce spending on
airport screening and prevent TSA mission creep is to re-privatize
airport security. That would save $3 billion and place financial responsibility for security where it belongs with the passengers,
airlines, and airports, not the taxpayer.97 Using private passenger
screeners in lieu of TSA employees will provide savings for the
taxpayer without reducing aviation security. Contract screeners are already
employed at over a dozen airports under the Screening Partnership Program (SPP).98 BearingPoint, a
management and consulting contractor, conducted a study of the SPP airports and found that those
screeners performed consistent with or better than TSA screeners, while screening costs were marginally
reduced in most cases.99 TSA has consistently argued that private sector screeners would be more
expensive, but the GAO questioned the TSAs methodology in comparing airport screening costs.100
Allowing airports the latitude to organize and manage their own

security will further increase performance. The GAO response to the
TSA pilot program assessment found that while TSA officials said
they had not granted contract officials more flexibility because they
wanted to ensure that procedures were standardized, well
coordinated, and consistently implemented throughout all airports
to achieve consistent security, the airports employed practices that

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enabled the private screening contractors to achieve efficiencies

that are not currently available at airports with federal
screeners.101 Private passenger screening will also reduce costs
because of the two-tier security in place; while TSA employees
conduct the bulk of passenger screening, cargo screening and other
aviation security duties remain the responsibilities of airports.
Removing this artificial separation of responsibility would allow
airports to reduce costs further.

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2NC/1NR Overview
The counterplan gets rid of the Department of Homeland

Security and the sub-agency Transportation Security
Administration. Current DHS and TSA efforts hurt security
because a large bureaucratic process and streamlining
failures. Because they cant coordinate, they cant
administer the best tech and ultimately our airports are
hurt the mostthats Rittgers 11.
The counterplan also initiates full privatization of airport
security, where private companies and the airports
themselves control the security systemsthat eliminates
the bureaucracy and leads to good passenger screening
thats the second Rittgers card.
The plans use of the DHS ensures failure at protecting
airportsDHS scanners only work 50% of the time.
The latest trend in airport security is the use of body scanner machines that can see beneath the
Current policy allows for the screening of all passengers by either (1) body scanner machines or (2) magnetometer
screening supplemented with a pat-down search. Advocates of body
travelers clothing.57
scanners argue that explosives hidden under clothing, such as the bomb carried by Farouk Abdulmutallab
Yet the
case for body scanners has been overstated. In a recent study,
academics Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller assumed that body
scanner technology had a 50 percent chance of successfully
accomplishing each of the following three tasks: (1) preventing a
suicide bomber from boarding an aircraft; (2) preventing detonation
of an explosive device because the use of the AIT prevented bomb
construction with detectable and reliable materials; and (3)
preventing a suicide bomber from getting a bomb past security that
was large enough to down an aircraft.59 The study concluded that to
be cost-effective, body scanner machines every two years would
have to disrupt more than one attack effort with body-borne
explosives that otherwise would have been successful despite other
security measures, terrorist incompetence and amateurishness,
and the technical difficulties in setting off a bomb sufficiently
destructive to down an airliner.60
in the attempted Christmas Day bombing in 2009, require expanded use of body scanners.58
History proves with the insurance industry.


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Limiting liability
handicaps the market incentives that provide for effective security .
The insurance industry and businesses in general have adapted to terrorism. A recent
insurance study found that 27 percent of businesses purchased
terrorism insurance in 2003, whereas 61 percent purchase it
now.113 Terrorism insurance rates have dropped consistently since
the 2001 attacks, and firms can now insure 14 a $303 million property for
$9,541 per year, a small fraction of total insurance costs.114 The
commercial aviation industry canand shouldprovide its own
security.
The better answer is that airport and airline liability should not be capped.
Specifically, The DHS and federal control would ruin any

attempt at El Al.
Some experts advocate an adoption of Israeli-style interrogations in
lieu of body scanners or other technological approaches, an
invitation to more TSA mission creep.90 This methodology could not
be scaled up from the relatively small Israeli aviation market and
applied in the United States without at least quintupling (probably more)
the TSAs annual budget.91 In spite of this, the TSA has recently started a pilot program at Logan
International Airport in Boston that uses brief interrogations to identify potential threats.92 This expansion of the
preexisting Screening of Passengers by Observation Techniques (SPOT) program seems unlikely to
ferret out any terrorists. SPOT has helped arrest 2,000 criminals since 2003, but none have been
charged with terrorism.93 Encour- aging behavioral screening may produce
more nonterrorism arrests, but it will also produce false positives
that burden the flying public with the prospect of detention and
law enforcement investigation, all based on the hunch of a TSA
screener. And as the Bierfeldt and Parker cases demonstrate, these hunches may be based on poor judgment and
exceed the TSAs limited aviation security mission. TSA mission creep is not limited to airports, as trains, buses, boats, and subways may soon have airportstyle security.94 Plac- ing checkpoints on these other forms of mass transit also represents a costly reversal of
policy. Former secretary of Homeland Se- curity Michael Chertoff opposed expansion of airport procedures to bus and train
terminals after the London commuter bombings because of the insurmountable cost of defending an enormous number
of transit targets.95 The trial deployment of a joint DHS team to a Tampa bus station gave a preview of what expanded
TSA jurisdiction would look like.96 Officers from TSA checked passengers for bombs, Customs and Border Protection
(CBP) agents checked the immigration status of travelers, and Immigration and Cus- toms Enforcement (ICE) agents
looked for drugs and large amounts of cash. Although those activities are conducted separately on a routine basis, the
synergistic effect of surren- dering privacy on multiple fronts presents exactly the kind of general law enforcement
The clearest way to

reduce spending on airport screening and prevent TSA mission creep
is to re-privatize airport security. That would save $3 billion and place financial responsibility
checkpoint that the Constitution was written to prevent. Privatize Aviation Security
for security where it belongs with the passengers, airlines, and airports, not the taxpayer.97 Using private passenger
screeners in lieu of TSA employees will provide savings for the taxpayer without reducing aviation security. Contract
screeners are already employed at over a dozen airports under the Screening Partnership Program (SPP).98 BearingPoint,
a management and consulting contractor, conducted a study of the SPP airports and found that those screeners
performed consistent with or better than TSA screeners, while screening costs were marginally reduced in most
TSA has consistently argued that private sector screeners

would be more expensive, but the GAO questioned the TSAs
methodology in comparing airport screening costs.100
cases.99

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Racism DA

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1NC
El Al security system is full of racism and profiling.
Weisenthal, Business Insider, 2010 (Joe Weisenthal, 6/6/2010,
Sorry, The El-Al Israeli Security Model Will Never Work Here, Business
Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/sorry-the-el-al-israeli-security-modelwill-never-work-here-2010-1), KTG
1. Scale Scale is an issue, but nobody in the thread has touched on why. The Israeli
security model is (as noted in the article) more about the passenger than
their baggage. This approach is both effective, time-consuming, and
"racist": the profilers have a conversation with each passenger; as I'm an Israeli Jew, I always get the
abbreviated treatment -- focusing more on where my bags have been since I've packed them. As a
foreigner, you get a much more in-depth grilling. As a Muslim? They want to know your shoe size, and then
a whole 'nother screener comes over and asks you everything all over again, just to see that you keep your
story straight. Like they say in the article, the conversations they have are not so much about what you
say as how you say it. The screeners are taught to iterate a few levels deep into your story and see that it
this process supposes that A) the

threat is foreign and mostly limited to one ethnic/religious group,
and B) screeners have this sort of time. In the US, racial profiling
is... unpalatable, and if each passenger / family got even a perfunctory 1minute Q&A session with a TSA security officer, the system would
crash. The US is dealing with a larger threat profile, and a whole
different order-of-magnitude of traffic.
doesn't break down under scrutiny. Naturally,
We must reject every instance of racism.

Joseph Barndt, Co-Director, Crossroads, DISMANTLING RACISM, 1991, p.
155-156
The limitations imposed on people of color by poverty, subservience, and powerlessness are cruel,
inhuman, and unjust: the effects of uncontrolled power privilege, and greed, which are the marks of our
the walls of racism can

be dismantled. We are not condemned to an inexorable fate, but are
offered the vision and the possibility of freedom. Brick by brick,
stone by stone, the prison of individual, institutional, and cultural
racism can be destroyed. You and I are urgently called to join the
efforts of those who know it is time to tear down, once and for all,
the walls of racism. The danger point of self-destruction seems to be
drawing even more near. The results of centuries of national and worldwide conquest and
white prison, will inevitably destroy us. But we have also seen that
colonialism, of military buildups and violent aggression, of overconsumption and environmental

destruction, may be reaching a point of no return. A small and predominately white minority of the global
population derives its power and privilege from the suffering of the vast majority of peoples of color.
For
the sake of the world and ourselves, we dare not allow it to

continue.
Racism is the root cause of violence

Foucault, College De France, '76 [Michel, Society Must be
Defended: Lectures at the College de France, 1975-1976, p. 254-257 Trans.

David Macey]
What in fact is racism? It is primarily a way of introducing a break into the
domain of life that is under power's control: the break between what
must live and what must die. But racism does make the relationship of war-"If you want to
live, the other must die" - function in a way that is completely new and that is quite compatible with the

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exercise of biopower. On the one hand,
racism makes it possible to establish a

relationship between my life and the death of the other that is not a
military or warlike relationship of confrontation, but a biologicaltype relationship: "The more inferior species die out, the more
abnormal individuals are eliminated, the fewer degenerates there will be in the species
as a whole, and the more Ias species rather than individual-can live, the stronger I will be, the more
vigorous I will be. I will be able to proliferate." There is a direct connection between the two. In a
normalizing society,
race or racism is the precondition that makes killing
acceptable. When you have a normalizing society, you have a power which is, at least superficially,
in the first instance, or in the first line a biopower, and racism is the indispensable precondition that allows
someone to be killed, that allows others to be killed. And we can also understand why racism should have
developed in modern societies that function in the biopower mode; we can understand why racism broke
out at a number of .privileged moments, and why they were precisely the moments when the right to take
Racism first develops with colonization, or in other

words, with colonizing genocide. If you are functioning in the
biopower mode, how can you justify the need to kill people, to kill
populations, and to kill civilizations? By using the themes of
evolutionism, by appealing to a racism. War. How can one not only
wage war on one's adversaries but also expose one's own citizens to
war, and let them be killed by the million (and this is precisely what
has been going on since the nineteenth century, or since the second
half of the nineteenth century), except by activating the theme of
racism
life was imperative.

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2NC Racism
El Al airport security is a large racial system for
identifying potential threats against a nationthats
Weisenthan 10. Arabs, Hispanics, Blacks, and other races
non-white are often pulled aside, held back, and not
allowed on flights and out of the airport because their
skin color poses a threat to national security.
This is what the DA is predicated onyou should reject
this form of racist methodology. Barndt 91 indicates that
racism must be rejected in every single instanceeven if
the DA is non-unique, still a reason to vote neg. The
horrors of racism need to dismantle, step by step.
We outweigh on any form of impact calculusFoucault 76
is the most important card on this flow
Israel airport security system is rife with racial profiling
singles out Arabs, Hispanics, and East Asian.
Kane, Mondo Weiss, 2012 (Alex Kane, August 14, 2012, Boston
Airport security program rife with racial profiling has Israeli links, Mondo
Weiss: Idea Think-Tank in the Middle East;
http://mondoweiss.net/2012/08/boston-airport-security-program-rife-withracial-profiling-has-israeli-links.html), KTG
Security officers at Bostons Logan International Airport have come under fire for the
widespread racial profiling of Arabs, Muslims, Blacks and Hispanics
in their zeal to ferret out terrorists. The New York Times broke the story over the weekend
after officers who requested anonymity came forward; some officers have complained internally to the Transportation
Security Agency as well. A Massachusetts lawmaker has called for congressional hearings on the racial profiling
The Times reports that officers estimated that 80 percent

of passengers searched during certain shifts were people of color .
Whats more, the Boston airport is the testing ground for an expanded
use of behavioral detection methods at airports around the
country. But whats not touched on in the Times report is the fact that Logan Internationals security procedures
allegations.
are modeled on Israels policies at their own airportpolicies that are blatantly racist. Heres more from the New York
More than 30 federal officers in an airport program intended to

spot telltale mannerisms of potential terrorists say the operation
has become a magnet for racial profiling, targeting not only Middle
Easterners but also blacks, Hispanics and other minorities. In interviews
Times:
and internal complaints, officers from the Transportation Security Administrations behavior detection program at Logan
International Airport in Boston asserted that passengers who fit certain profiles Hispanics traveling to Miami, for
instance, or blacks wearing baseball caps backward are much more likely to be stopped, searched and questioned for
The Israel connection is integral to understanding

Bostons racial profiling problems. In 2009, according to the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee (AIPAC), the Jerusalem Post reported that Bostons Logan Airport has tapped the
Israeli company New Age Security Solutions to help secure the
facility using Behavior Pattern Recognition. Even before 2009, the head of New Age
suspicious behavior.
Security Solutions was consulting with Logan International, according to NPR. In an interview, Rafi Ron, the head of the
Israeli company and the former head of security at Ben-Gurion Airport, insisted that Israel does not racially profile. But

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Ron said that Israel uses profiling that takes into consideration where somebody comes from, and if somebodys home
address is Gaza, we should be paying more attention to details. (Ron also said in a more recent interview on Bostons
NPR station that targeting minorities is not a good idea.) It took until August 2011 for the Israeli-inspired model to be
That was the date when the behavioral profiling became

an official model at Bostons airportand this was a direct result of
Israeli influence on security procedures at the airport, according
to the Associated Press. Fast-forward to the New York Times story. The Times reports that one
operationalized.
anonymous TSA officer complained that this behavior detection program is no longer a behavior-based program, but
To observers of how Israeli security works at

Ben Gurion Airport, the allegations of racial profiling will come as no
surprise. Palestinian and Arab travelers at Ben Gurion are
guaranteed to be harassed by Israeli security. According to the
Association of Civil Rights in Israel, all Arab citizens of Israel are
automatically categorized as a security threat for the purpose of
airport security checksArab passengers receive a discriminatory
and humiliating treatment in airports, including a special and
thorough search that extremely exceeds the usual security checks,
only because the passenger is Arab and with no other concrete basis
for suspicion. Darryl Li, a Harvard University graduate student at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, was
[rather] a racial profiling program.
not surprised at the revelations published by the New York Times. Li himself has been questioned extensively at Logan
International, and while it was not due to his race, it was due to his travels to the Middle East. Over the past two years I
have been subjected to additional interrogation by [Customs and Border Protection] every time I have entered the US at
Logan. This has generally been triggered by visa stamps I have in my passport from Yemen, a country which I last visited
in 2006 as a fellow at the American Institute for Yemeni Studies (which is supported by the US Departments of State and
Education), Li wrote in an email. The scope of questioning goes far beyond routine matters of ascertaining my
citizenship, searching for contraband, or inquiring about the nature of my trip. Instead, it seems that CBP has taken on an
entirely new mandate of open-ended domestic intelligence gathering. The influence of Israeli-style security tactics
extends far beyond Logan, as Max Blumenthal documented in this report, though the US has its own racial profiling
problems separate from Israels. For example, after the failed attempt in 2010 to bomb an airliner on Christmas Day by a
Nigerian-born member of Yemens Al Qaeda branch, the Obama administration announced that travelers from 14
countries would be subject to additional security screening. The countries were largely Muslim-majority ones. The
Some in this country

continue to hold a strange fascination with Israel as a model for
how to do coercion right, said Li. I prefer to think of it as a model
for what to avoid.
administration dropped the program three months after it was implemented.
That turns casepsychological responses by singling out

of groups leads to phobia and more terrorism.
Nick Adams, Ted Nordhaus, and Michael Shellenberger, January
2012, Planes, Trains, and Car Bombs: The Method Behind the Madness of
Terrorism, The Science of Security, from the Breakthrough Institute,

http://thescienceofsecurity.org/blog/PlanesTrains%26CarBombs_BTI.pdf, KTG
THE TARGETED AUDIENCE: HOW INTERGROUP PSYCHOLOGY PRODUCES UNHELPFUL RESPONSES TO
hirabis have been especially poor at executing their latest attempted attacks
have provoked precisely the kinds of polarizing reactions they hoped for. When Farouk
Abdulmutallab tried and failed to down a jetliner on Christmas Day, the US government
responded by singling out people from Muslim-majority countries
for increased scanning at airports around the world. After Faisal Shahzad lit up
TERRORISM Though
failing to detonate weapons in all of their last three attempts they
his dud of a truck bomb in Times Square, policymakers and talking heads raised a fuss about an interfaith
(but primarily Muslim) cultural center to be erected blocks away from the site of the former World Trade
some
American lawmakers called for legislation preventing Sharia law
from supplanting the American Constitution . Throughout all these events, a
fringe group of pundits claimed the current presidential
administration was coddling or participating in an Islamic conspiracy
Center towers. As al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula sent printer cartridge bombs to Detroit,

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to take over the United States.64 While many Americans saw this
Islamophobia as unseemly or ridiculous, many others easily
participated in the polarization hirabis sought to inspire . Polls measuring
Americans support for the construction of a multi-faith cultural center blocks from Ground Zero quickly
shifted in the fall of 2010 as a few bloggers characterized the center as a Victory Mosque intended to
taunt the United States. Attempts by the centers imam to explain his record of, and commitment to,
building interfaith coalitions did not neutralize opponents beliefs.
Muslims cannot.
They insisted that

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Solvency 1NC
(Use stuff in the DHS CP if needed)
1. Airport Security renovations fail because bureaucracy

and lack of deploymentTSA systems prove.
The House Oversight Committee 2012 [House Oversight
Committee Report. Airport Insecurity: TSAs Failure to Cost-Effectively

Procure, Deploy and Warehouse its Screening Technologies Joint Majority
Staff Report. 112th Congress, May 9th, 2012. Sub-report by the Government
Accountability Office (GAO). http://oversight.house.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2012/05/5-9-2012-Joint-TSA-Staff-Report-FINAL.pdf], KTG
TSA is wasting hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars by inefficiently

deploying screening equipment and technology to commercial airports.
From 2004 to 2006, TSA spent more than $30 million to procure and
deploy Explosive Trace Detection Portals, known as puffers, as part of its
passenger screening operations. While TSA procured 207 puffers, the agency deployed only 101 less
TSA belatedly discovered the puffers

were unable to detect explosives in an operational environment.9 TSA
than 50% of procured puffers nationwide because
rushed this untested product to deployment, ignoring internal procedures designed to prevent this type of
waste. After the decision was made to remove and dispose of the puffers, TSA stored this ineffective
technology for upwards of four years at taxpayer expense prior to disposition in 2009 and 2010. In
response to the Christmas Day Underwear Bomber Attack, TSA
revised the Advanced

Imaging Technology Devices (AIT) procurement and deployment
strategy, increasing the planned deployment of AITs . . . and using AITs
as a primaryinstead of a secondaryscreening measure where
feasible.10 According to GAO, however, it remains unclear whether
TSA screening technology and AIT would have been able to detect
weapons and possible bombings based on the preliminary TSA
information we have received. [Emphasis Added] TSA is also ineffectively deploying the
screening technology. On March 26, 2012, at a joint hearing conducted by the Committee on Oversight and
Government Reform and Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, Stephen Lord, GAOs Director of
Homeland Security, testified that: some of the deployed AIT units were used on less than 5 percent of the
days they were available since their deployment . . . some units were used on less than 30 percent of the
days available since their installation.15
As such, the ineffective deployment of AIT diminished any
potential security benefits of the technology and highlights the import of effective deployment.16 In-Line
TSA is failing to deploy in-line Explosive

Detection Systems in a cost-effective and risk- based manner.
Currently, less than half of the nations 35 largest airports, which
handle 75% of all commercial passengers,17 screen all checked
baggage through in-line systems. TSA has estimated that in-line
explosive detection systems for checked baggage could reduce the
number of required TSA baggage screeners by as much as 78% . However,
despite the potential security and economic benefits of in-line baggage screening, GAO found that
TSA is struggling to upgrade its deployed fleet of checked baggagescreening machines and that some of TSAs deployed machines are
detecting explosives at standards promulgated in 1998
Explosive Detection Systems (EDS)

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2. El Al cant be implemented in the United States

because of scalethere is not enough time for each
passenger and too much traffic.
1. Scale Scale is an issue, but nobody in the thread has touched on why. The Israeli
security model is (as noted in the article) more about the passenger than
their baggage. This approach is both effective, time-consuming, and
"racist": the profilers have a conversation with each passenger; as I'm an Israeli Jew, I always get the
abbreviated treatment -- focusing more on where my bags have been since I've packed them. As a
foreigner, you get a much more in-depth grilling. As a Muslim? They want to know your shoe size, and then
a whole 'nother screener comes over and asks you everything all over again, just to see that you keep your
story straight. Like they say in the article, the conversations they have are not so much about what you
say as how you say it. The screeners are taught to iterate a few levels deep into your story and see that it
this process supposes that A) the

threat is foreign and mostly limited to one ethnic/religious group,
and B) screeners have this sort of time. In the US, racial profiling
is... unpalatable, and if each passenger / family got even a perfunctory 1minute Q&A session with a TSA security officer, the system would
crash. The US is dealing with a larger threat profile, and a whole
different order-of-magnitude of traffic.
doesn't break down under scrutiny. Naturally,
3. There isnt enough personnel, training, or history for

implementation.
2. The security screener's job: manpower, training, history. Normally these are intelligent
men and women, usually students or twentysomethings, who pass a series of
exams and then pass a several-month course . The hours are craptastic but the
pay is decent, and a lot of students prefer it to shiftwork or waitressing. Passing the course is difficult but
not arduous, and in the end you are really being taught guidelines on interrogation and then set loose to
use your judgment -- if you have a red flag to raise, then you just call over a senior screener who has more
The reality is that there are few enough openings that

the program can be selective. I'd say, as a generalization, screeners
here possess above-average intelligence, whereas your average TSA
screener seems to be a working stiff, blindly following some not-toocomplex screening algorithm in a three-ring binder. The number of
screeners requisite for staffing all of the US airports precludes the
TSA from exclusively employing screeners with the ability to make
"judgment calls". There just aren't enough smart people with the desire to
years of experience.
work a screener's job in the US. Now before you say it in the comments, recognize that this isn't just a
matter of getting over our objections to race-based screening. That would be one hurdle
(though maybe a diminishing one, given Obama's acknowledgment that country-based screening does
make some sense). Beyond that though, where are we goign to get this amazing security force? If you
how do you expect

the TSA (or whatever we call it) to manage a security operation that requires
so much training and intuition. Plus, the scale and cost aren't worth
it. Remember, terrorist attacks are very, very rare. Sure, they're specularly attention-grabbing, but as an
don't trust the TSA now -- and nobody we've heard will endorse it -- then

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actual threat, it's not huge, so adding billions in lost dollars and time to the already miserable civil aviation
system would be a horrible idea.
3. TurnEl Al security would bring commercial

competition in airports to a standstill and no solvency
too many destinations.
Tucker, Antlanta AJC, 2010 (Cynthia Tucker, Aviation Export, January
5, 2010, El Al is about security, U.S. airlines about commerce,

http://blogs.ajc.com/cynthia-tucker/2010/01/05/el-al-is-about-security-u-sairlines-about-commerce/), KTG
Meanwhile, lots of observers have referred to security protocols used by
El Al, the Israeli airline, and wondered whether those should be adopted here. Theres a great discussion
posted at The New York Times, including a comment from someone who notes that Israeli commercial air
If U.S. airlines instituted that kind

of security, it would practically bring commercial transport to a
standstill. Would U.S. passengers and more to the point U.S. airlines stand for that? On the
other hand, no matter how safe or how wonderful the flying experience on
El Al, it is TINY airline by U.S. standards, with only 38 aircraft, 46
destinations, and fewer than two million passengers in 2008. As near as I can
tell, Cairo is their only destination in a majority Muslim country. Delta ,
before the Northwest merger is included, reported 449 aircraft and 375
destinations. Ben Gurion Airport is Israels primary (not only)
international gateway. In 2008, Ben Gurion served 11.1 million international passengers and
transport is a fraction of the size of that in the U.S.
470,000 domestic passengers, roughly comparable to the 10 million total served at Sacramento, the
airport I use most often. Amsterdam served 47.4 million total, and Detroit served 35.1 million total in 2008.
That turns casecommercial airport competition is key to

airport success and viability.
Starkie, International Transport Forum, 2008 (David Starkie,
Economics-Plus Ltd., London, UK, The Airport Industry in a Competitive

Environment, Joint Transport Research Center; Discussion Paper No. 200815, July 2008;
http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/discussionpapers/DP200815.p
df)
The paper provides an overview of US airports from the perspective
of a business enterprise. Its object is to show, through the medium of the US
industry, that effective competition between airports is possible and
that a competitive industry can be financially viable. In the US case
viability is achieved at all levels of output, thus refuting the
suggestion that high fixed costs are a significant barrier to positive
returns, particularly for airports of limited output . This viable industry operates
for the most part in the private sector of the economy and it has evolved without the imposition of a
It is competition that has driven the dynamics of the

industry, an industry that in its symbiotic relationship with the
airline industry has been an economic success story helping to
produce strong economic growth in the service sector of the US
economy.
strategic plan.

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2NC
Extend our House Oversight 12 cardattempting to

reform the TSA only results in further technological
failuresthe airline security industry is plagued by lack of
tech and support, not necessarily due to administration.
Extend the Weisenthal cardUnited States airports have
far more traffic and passenger congestion than the one
Israeli airport that uses the El Al systemit wont be
feasibly across all US airports.
Extend the second Weisenthal cardimplementing El Al in
the United States would require increased personnel size
and more training procedures, which security
administrations cannot afford or administer, meaning
there would always be a flaw in security.
Extend the Commercialization Turn:
First, the Tucker 10 evidenceEl Al security system would
drive away any commercialization of airports and
competition between security providers and airport
companies because it Is solely security-based, not
economic.
Second, the Starkie 8 evidencecommercial airport
competition is vital to airport improvements and airport
competition, which provides the best product, creates
economic feasibility, and turns case.
Our airports have too much trafficmakes the El Al
system impossible.
Guttman, The Jewish Daily, 2010 (Nathan Guttman, January 6
2010, Israels Airport Security, Object is Envy, Is Hard to Emulate Here, The
Jewish Daily Forward; http://forward.com/articles/122781/israel-s-airportsecurity-object-of-envy-is-hard/, KTG
We could all do a lot worse than to learn from the Israeli model , wrote
David Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee on The Huffington Post. To critics of the
Israeli profiling system, Harris replied that it is more sophisticated than simple classification according to
groups and that Israels procedures have worked, with a minimum of inconvenience for the vast majority
It is
possible to learn from the Israeli model, as Harris suggested, but experts
agree adopting it in its entirety would be impractical. Israel has only
one main international airport that serves, at its peak, no more than
10 million passengers a year. This is comparable to an airport the
size of the San Juan airport in Puerto Rico and is much smaller than
of travelers, who spend no more time at the airport than their American counterparts.

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Americas major hubs such as Chicago, Atlanta or Los Angeles, which

each see up to 80 million passengers a year.

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HSR Negative
The recent DOT budget has funded High Speed Rail for
the future
U.S. Department of Transportation, November 2012,
Budget Highlights: Fiscal Year 2013
http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.dev/files/docs/dot_budget_highlights_fy_2013_5
MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget proposes $47 billion over six years to continue
construction of a National high-speed rail network. It will place
passenger rail on equal footing with other surface transportation
programs; include funding for both Amtrak and new core
express, regional, and emerging corridors; and keep the
country on track toward a system that gives 80 percent of Americans
access to a passenger rail system featuring high-speed service within 25 years. This is
an important step in a long-term investment plan to develop this critical transportation alternative

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Plasma Gasification Negative

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1NC
substantially increase its development and
implementation of geothermal energy projects in the
United States.
Geothermal Energy solves caseis clean and sustainable
and natural.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2009, Geothermal
Energy, published on Renewable Energy World; content provided by the

NREL and the Department of Energy;
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/tech/geothermal-energy, KTG
Geothermal energy is the heat from the Earth. It's clean and
sustainable. Resources of geothermal energy range from the shallow
ground to hot water and hot rock found a few miles beneath the
Earth's surface, and down even deeper to the extremely high
temperatures of molten rock called magma. Almost everywhere, the shallow
ground or upper 10 feet of the Earth's surface maintains a nearly constant temperature between 50 and
Geothermal heat pumps can tap into this resource to

heat and cool buildings. A geothermal heat pump system consists of a heat pump, an air
60F (10 and 16C).
delivery system (ductwork), and a heat exchanger-a system of pipes buried in the shallow ground near the
building. In the winter, the heat pump removes heat from the heat exchanger and pumps it into the indoor
air delivery system. In the summer, the process is reversed, and the heat pump moves heat from the
The heat removed from the indoor air during

the summer can also be used to provide a free source of hot water.
indoor air into the heat exchanger.
The Earth's heat-called geothermal energy-escapes as steam at a hot springs in Nevada. Credit: Sierra
Pacific In the United States,
most geothermal reservoirs of hot water are

located in the western states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Wells can be drilled into underground
reservoirs for the generation of electricity. Some geothermal power plants use the steam from a reservoir
to power a turbine/generator, while others use the hot water to boil a working fluid that vaporizes and then
Direct-use
applications include heating buildings, growing plants in
greenhouses, drying crops, heating water at fish farms, and several
industrial processes such as pasteurizing milk. Hot dry rock resources occur at
turns a turbine. Hot water near the surface of Earth can be used directly for heat.
depths of 3 to 5 miles everywhere beneath the Earth's surface and at lesser depths in certain areas.
Access to these resources involves injecting cold water down one well, circulating it through hot fractured
rock, and drawing off the heated water from another well. Currently, there are no commercial applications
Existing technology also does not yet allow recovery of

heat directly from magma, the very deep and most powerful
resource of geothermal energy.
of this technology.
Net benefit to politicsavoids the link.

Energy Informative, 2012, Geothermal Energy Pros and Cons,
http://energyinformative.org/geothermal-energy-pros-and-cons/, KTG
The bottom line is this: Geothermal energy is generally regarded as
environmentally friendly, sustainable and reliable . This makes geothermal
energy a no-brainer in some places, but heavy upfront costs stops us from realizing the full potential.
How much influence geothermal power will have on our energy

systems in the future depends on technological advancements,
energy prices and politics (subsidies). Congress has shown great

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interest and support in technological geothermal projects to sustain

American energy development. No one really knows what the situation will look one or two
decades down the line.
(OR..use environment turns in Solvency as net benefit)

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Solves Oil Dependence

Geothermal solves oil dependence
Geothermal Technologies Office, updated 1/18/2013, Geothermal
FAQs, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/geothermal/faqs.html, KTG
Answer: Several attributes make it a good source of energy for homes
and vehicles . First, it's clean. Energy can be extracted without
burning a fossil fuel such as coal, gas, or oil. Geothermal fields produce only about
one-sixth of the carbon dioxide that a relatively clean natural-gas-fueled power plant produces, and very
little if any, of the nitrous oxide or sulfur-bearing gases. Binary plants, which are closed cycle operations,
Geothermal energy is available 24 hours a day,

365 days a year. Geothermal power plants have average
availabilities of 90% or higher, compared to about 75% for coal plants. Geothermal
power is homegrown, reducing our dependence on foreign oil.
release essentially no emissions.

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Solves Land Use

Solves land use better than plasma gasificationis
smaller than conventional energy sources.
Geothermal Education Office, 2007, Geothermal Energy Plants:
Introductory Levels, Marin County, California;

http://geothermal.marin.org/pwrheat.html, KTG
Easy on the land. The land area required for geothermal power
plants is smaller per megawatt than for almost every other type of
power plant. Geothermal installations don't require damming of rivers or harvesting of forests -- and
there are no mine shafts, tunnels, open pits, waste heaps or oil spills.
No excessive land use and internal net benefitGeothermal energy

solves earthquakes and seismic activity.
Alyssa Kagel, Diana Bates, and Karl Gawell, April 2007, A Guide to
Geothermal Energy and the Environment; Fellows at the Geothermal Energy
Association; http://geo-energy.org/reports/environmental%20guide.pdf, KTG
Land Use: Geothermal power plants can be designed to iblend-ini to
their surrounding more so than fossil fired plants, and can be
located on multiple-use lands that incorporate farming, skiing, and
hunting. Over 30 years, the period of time commonly used to compare the life cycle impacts from
different power sources, a geothermal facility uses 404 square meters of land
per gigawatt hour, while a coal facility uses 3632 square meters per gigawatt hour.
--Subsidence: Subsidence, or the slow, downward sinking of land, may be linked to
geothermal reservoir pressure decline. Injection technology,
employed at all geothermal sites in the United States, is an effective
mitigating technique

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Solves Warming
Solves emissions and warming.
Geothermal energy is generally considered environmentally friendly.
There are a few polluting aspects of harnessing geothermal energy
(read more about them in the disadvantages section), but these are minor
compared to the pollution associated with conventional fuel sources (e.g.
coal, fossil fuels) The carbon footprint of a geothermal power plant is
minimal. Further development of our geothermal resources is
considered helpful in the fight against global warming. An average
geothermal power plant releases the equivalent of 122 kg CO2 for
every megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity it generates one eight of
the carbon emissions associated with a typical coal power plant.
Solves warmingdoesnt emit vapor, emissions, smokes, and abates
Mercury and Hydrogen Sulfide to help the environment.
The visible plumes seen rising from some geothermal power plants are actually water vapor emissions
(steam), not smoke. Because geothermal power plants do not burn fuel like fossil fuel plants, they release
virtually no air emissions. A case study of a coal plant updated with scrubbers and other emissions control
technologies emits 24 times more carbon dioxide, 10,837 times more sulfur dioxide, and 3,865 times more
nitrous oxides per megawatt hour than a geothermal steam plant. Averages of four significant pollutants,
as emitted from geothermal and coal facilities, are listed in the table below. Following the table is a brief
discussion of other emissions that have sometimes been associated with geothermal development.
Hydrogen
sulfide is now routinely abated at geothermal power plants,
resulting in the conversion of over 99.9 percent of the hydrogen
sulfide from geothermal noncondensable gases into elemental sulfur,
which can then be used as a non-hazardous soil amendment and
fertilizer feedstock. Since 1976, hydrogen sulfide emissions have declined from 1,900 lbs/hr to
Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S) (see SO2, above, for impacts and comparative information):
200 lbs/hr or less, although geothermal power production has increased from 500 megawatts (MW) to over
Although mercury is not present in every geothermal

resource, where it is present, mercury abatement equipment
typically reduces emissions by 90 percent or more. The comparatively ihighesti
2,000 MW. Mercury:
mercury emitters, two facilities at The Geysers in California, release mercury at levels that do not trigger
any health risk analyses under strict California regulations.

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Solves Roads
Geothermal energy piles help in infrastructure
development.
Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, January
13, 2013, Use of Geothermal Energy in Transportation Applications,
http://pressamp.trb.org/CallForPapers/CFPDetail.asp?cid=1601, KTG
The session sponsoring Committee encourages all transportation
researchers and practitioners to submit papers for presentation at TRB 2013 Annual Meeting. The
highest quality papers will be eligible for publication in the peer-reviewed Transportation Research Record.
related to the use of geothermal

energy and energy piles in transportation and bridge applications .
Near-surface geothermal energy (due to constant ground surface
below ~5 to 10 ft) can be accessed and exploited for use in
transportation and bridge applications; one important technology of
interest to this committee is energy piles. This call for papers is
seeking the participation of bridge engineers and researchers on
topics related to the use of geothermal energy and energy piles in
transportation infrastructure.
Papers are invited on a broad range of topics
Geothermal opens up more access to highway development and

traffic congestion mitigation.
Prozzi et al., October 2011, Impacts of Energy Developments on the
Texas Transportation System Infrastructure; Jolanda Prozzi, Sergey
Grebenschikov, Ambarish Banerjee, and Jorge Prozzi of the Texas Department
of Transportation; Sponsored by the Texas DOT;
ftp://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/var/ftp/pub/txdot-info/energy/impacts_energy.pdf,
KTG
For the natural gas and geothermal sector, the study team focused on three
different truck traffic generators. The drilling of a internal gas well
requires specialized equipment such as the rotary drill, drill casing,
and pipeall of which require OS/OW permits. Again, the study team referred to the
OS/OW database maintained by TxDOT to quantify the impact of the rig traffic on
the highway infrastructure. In addition to the rig traffic, the impact
of the construction and production traffic was also assessed. The
construction traffic involves the use of bob tails to move equipment,
rock-haulers bringing aggregates to the well site for building access
roads, ready-mix concrete trucks, and tanker trucks associated with
the transportation of the water and sand from hydraulic fracturing,
and removal of backflow water. The production traffic is mostly saltwater trucks used to
move the saltwater from the well site to the nearest injection well.

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Solves: Infinite Supply

Theres an infinite supplysolves internationally. Aff will
never spillover.

Worldwide energy consumption about 15 terawatts (TW) is not anywhere near the
amount of energy stored in earth. However, most geothermal
reservoirs are not profitable and we can only utilize a small portion
of the total potential. Realistic estimates for the potential of geothermal power plants vary between 0.035 to 2 TW.
Geothermal power plants across the world currently deliver about 10,715
megawatts (MW) of electricity far less than installed geothermal heating capacity (about 28,000 MW).
Geothermal energy has a high output and lots of accuracy.

Geothermal energy is a reliable source of energy. We can predict the
power output of a geothermal power plant with remarkable
accuracy. This is not the case with solar and wind (where weather plays
a huge part in power production). Geothermal power plants are
therefore excellent for meeting the base load energy demand.
Geothermal power plants have a high capacity factor actual power
output is very close to total installed capacity. The global average
power output was 73% (capacity factor) of total installed capacity in
2005, but as much as 96% has been demonstrated.

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Solves Noise Pollution
Geothermal solves noise pollution and water use.


Noise Pollution: Normal geothermal power plant operation typically
produces less noise than the equivalent produced inear leaves
rustling from breeze,i according to common sound level standards,
and thus is not considered an issue of concern. Water Use:
Geothermal plants use 5 gallons of freshwater per megawatt hour,
while binary air-cooled plants use no fresh water. This compares with
361 gallons per megawatt hour used by natural gas facilities.

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Solves Water Quality

Geothermal energy solves water quality.
Association; http://geo-energy.org/reports/environmental%20guide.pd, KTG
Water Quality: Geothermal fluids used for electricity are injected back into
geothermal reservoirs using wells with thick casing to prevent crosscontamination of brines with groundwater systems. They are not
released into surface waterways. At The Geysers facility, 11 million gallons of treated
wastewater from Santa Rosa are pumped daily for injection into the geothermal reservoir. Injection
reduces surface water pollution and increases geothermal reservoir
resilience.

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Avoids Environment DA
Geothermal energy helps the environment
Association; http://geo-energy.org/reports/environmental%20guide.pd, KTG
Geothermal power plants release very few air emissions because
they do not burn fuel like fossil fuel plants. Most fossil fuel power
plant emissions are either a product of fuel combustion or a wasteproduct from that process. Geothermal plants avoid both
environmental impacts associated with burning fuels as well as
those associated with transporting and processing fuel sources.
Geothermal plants emit only trace amounts of nitrogen oxides,
almost no sulfur dioxide or particulate matter, and small amounts of
carbon dioxide. The primary pollutant some geothermal plants must sometimes abate is hydrogen
sulfide, which is naturally present in many subsurface geothermal reservoirs. With the use of advanced
abatement equipment, however, emissions of hydrogen sulfide are regularly maintained below even
It is important to note that air emissions from all

power plantsoincluding but not limited to geothermalocome from a
variety of sources. For example, additional fossil fuel emissions, which come from the
California state standards.
transportation of fuel to the power plant, are often omitted from emissions data. Unfortunately, air
emissions comparisons are sometimes misleading, because the emissions data from a geothermal plant
typically includes all emission sources from the well field through the power plant. A better comparison
would include the complete range of emissions from fossil fuel plants. The lack of such data means that
the comparisons that follow generally overstate the comparative emissions from geothermal power, and
while this analytical problem cannot be resolved within the confines of this paper, it should be noted by the
reader. Average life cycle emissions at coal facilities are substantially higher than their average
operational emissions, as show in Figure 13.41 Operational emissions do not consider the effects of coal
mining, transport, construction, and decommissioning. Life cycle emissions from geothermal facilities, in
contrast, generally remain in the same range as operational emissions.

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Avoids Politics
Extend Energy Informativecongress perceives
geothermal as environmentally friendly, sustainable, and
reliable so they support the tech projects for geothermal.
Geothermal Energy is politically popularbipartisan
support because it is perceived as increasing jobs and
decreasing the deficit.
Congressman John Garamendi-D, 2012, Lake County News: Bipartisan
members of Congress champion geothermal energy with letter to 'super
committee, http://www.garamendi.org/node/447, KTG
On Thursday, six Members of Congress sent a bipartisan letter authored by
Congressmen Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena) and John Garamendi (D-Fairfield) to the Joint Select
urging them to
maintain the current revenue sharing for counties as it pertains to
geothermal receipts. "The geothermal energy produced in Californias counties is not only
good for our environment, it reduces our dependence on foreign oil and helps
our economy by spurring green job creation," said Thompson, who represents Lake
County in the US House of Representatives. "The best way to reduce the deficit is by
creating jobs because more jobs means greater revenues and less
need for government assistance, he added. If a community invests in developing
geothermal energy they deserve to get their fair share in returns. I am strongly against
cutting counties share of geothermal revenue because that means
cutting jobs, crippling future green job growth, and stifling our
economic recovery all of which will only make our deficit larger." Members joining in
the call to preserve geothermal energy revenue sharing include
Representatives Mark Amodei (R-Carson City, NV). The Representatives joined in
the call to promote energy independence and preserve this vital
source of revenue for the counties that produce geothermal energy
Committee on Deficit Reduction, commonly referred to as the Super Committee,
Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma), Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas), and Bob Filner (D-San Diego),.

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Politics Links
Plasma Gasification is unpopular.
Waste Management World, December 13 2011, Microwave Plasma

Gasification Heats up in the U.S., WMW is a website dedicated to information
about waste collection, transport, recycling, and treatment;
http://www.waste-management-world.com/articles/print/volume-12/issue6/features/microwave-plasma-gasification-heats-up-in-the-us.html, KTG
Plasma gasification has become a buzzword and the new kid on the
waste to energy block. One company has trialled its new process in Mexico, known as
microwave plasma gasification, and is starting work on its first commercial facility in Texas. Tom Freyberg
With
landfill sites reaching capacity around the world, more and more
municipalities are incorporating waste to energy (WtE) technologies into their waste
management plans. Political and planning challenges to one side, modern
technologies have not proven their ability to produce energy or a
investigates claims that the process is 60% more efficient and can produce diesel from waste.
valuable biogas/synthetic gas (syngas) from waste and divert millions of tonnes from reaching landfill.

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Solvency 1NC
1. No national or international standardskills solvency.
Masoud Pourali, 2012, Application of Plasma Gasification Technology in
Waste to Energy Challenges and Opportunities, Senior Member at the
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; Georgia Tech;
http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~kcobb/energy/Readings/Pourali.pdf, KTG
1) Lack of Standards: The lack of standards on plasma gasification
technology endorsed by nationally or internationally known
organization, is one of the most important contributing factors in
project development difficulties
2. No return on investment deters outside investment
2) Initial Cost and Return on Investment: Another major impediment
of developing plasma gasification technology for WTE is its financial
justification. Typically, the installed cost of a plasma gasification plant is
approximately around $5,000 per kW. This cost is higher than the
installed cost of a modern natural gas fired combined cycle power
plant. For this reason, currently, a plasma gasification plant is economic only
where tipping fees for MSW are high, electric rates are high, and the
municipality faces an economically painful waste-management crisis. In
addition, due to relatively high cost of operation and maintenance on
one hand, and the amount of syngas generated on the other, the
return on investment time for these plants is considered long
comparing to similar size industrial facilities.
3. Lack of historical data, no prototypes, no SynGas transportation,
absence of regulations, and skepticism causes failure.
3) Skepticism on Environmental Effects: Lack of historical data,
limited number of prototype units and absence of government
regulations, caused skepticism on environmental effects of plasma
gasification technology. First, the generated syngas is produced at
almost atmosphere pressure and that alone, causes concern on reliability of gas
collection systems. The answer is simple: incorporate redundancy. Other critique on syngas
is focused on scrubbing system. It is obvious that the syngas that exits the plasma
chamber needs several layers of cleansing to remove some of the unwanted elements. The distress
comes on how those elements are stored, transported and disposed.

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2NC
They slag they create for roads failsno prototypes, is toxic, and no
compatible monitoring agencies.
Finally, there are questions on slag exiting from the bottom of the
chamber. Several independent tests on prototype units had been
performed and level of toxics in inert material seemed to be several
folds less than permitted level in some cases, and below detectable
level in other cases. Europlasma [28] as part of Vivaldi Programme provided similar test results
which they were validated by French Nuclear Agency. How- ever, given that there is no
certifying or monitoring agency in the United States dedicated to
this task, it is typically difficult to convince skeptics.
Toxicity, underground contamination, and failure from

natural disasters guts solvency.

4) Confusion between Plasma Gasification and Incinera- tion: There is
a great deal of misunderstanding (or deliberately misstating) between
incineration and plasma gasification. Incineration in short is simply
burning the garbage, which comes with toxic fumes and toxic ashes.
There are ways to scrub the fumes, however their effectiveness rely
on technology, proper maintenance and regular monitoring. The
toxic ashes remain toxic forever and need to be buried somewhere,
most likely, in a landfill. Obviously there is always the risk of
contaminating underground water, or exposure to natural disasters
such as hurricane, and flood. While in plasma arc chamber, the solid
waste is gasify or instantly melted and the sludge is almost a rocklike inert material.

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Roads FL
Asphalt contractors arent worried supply shortages
their biggest challenge is the economy
Lisa Cleaver, October 29th, 2012, editor at For Construction Pros, a
construction-centered news site, What's Coming Down the Road in 2013?

http://www.forconstructionpros.com/article/10821489/whats-coming-downthe-road-for-2013?page=4
Generally speaking, what will 2013 look like for asphalt highway contractors
and producers? Mike Acott, NAPA: NAPA believes 2013 will be slightly
better than 2012. Spending in the federal-aid highway program will be flat, but we expect the
residential and commercial sectors to pick up. In addition, where states, counties, and cities find
themselves with increased revenues,
the construction industry will see more
work than in prior years.
Alison Premo Black, ARTBA: Our preliminary forecast is that real

pavement work will be flat in 2013. Bucky Brooks, AEMA: It's hard to predict. As far as preservation goes, I
increasingly see local budgets for this work on hold as agencies wait out winter and/or other natural
disasters to see how much they have left to spend on roads due to shrinking funds and less federal
What do see you as

the biggest hurdles impacting the road building industry as we move
into 2013? Mike Acott, NAPA: The overall economy is the biggest hurdle.
Alison Premo Black, ARTBA: Although MAP-21 provides stability in the federal aid program, state and
local governments continue to deal with significant fiscal challenges.
This will continue to suppress real growth in the next two years.
disaster aid which will further add to the gradual deterioration of roads.

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Port Dredging Negative

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Solvency 1NC
The Panama Canal will not change US commerce and will
not necessitate dredgingit only will expand Pacific
goods.
Theodore Prince, Supply Chain Quarterly, 2012, Panama
Canal Expansion: Game Changer, Or More of the Same?
http://www.supplychainquarterly.com/topics/Logistics/201201panama/, KTG
Some ports and ocean carriers expect significant new business to
come their way follo, wing the Panama Canal expansion. But do the
"shipper math," says the author, and it's clear that U.S. distribution
patterns are unlikely to change much. The expansion of the Panama
Canal, set for completion in 2014the canal's centennialcould become a
point of inflection for trans-Pacific goods movement . Many stakeholders
believe the expansion offers a game-changing opportunity, and there has been a great deal of speculation,
analysis, and publicity regarding its anticipated benefits. There is no doubt that an expanded canal will
allow larger vessels to ply the all-water route from Asia to the East and Gulf Coast regions of North
America. It's also clear that the expansion will significantly increase the canal's capacity and will support
cargo routing ultimately is a function

of shippers' supply chain optimization, not of ocean carriers' linehaul
economics. In addition, the canal expansion will not provide any benefits
to shippers that are not already available today, so there will be no
unfulfilled demand for East Coast ports to fulfill. For that reason, many ports
continued volume growth in this trade. However,
that are relying on the canal expansion to generate astronomical post-2014 growth will be very
disappointed. A look at this issue from both the shipper's and the carrier's point of view explains why.
Dredging ports is a useless goalcurrent shipbuilding

strategies are not affected

The Panama Canal expansion is without question an important event in global transportation. It will
Thanks to
aggressive engineering, process improvements, and commercial
innovations, the ACP has already been successful in facilitating
cargo diversions from the USWC. The canal expansion will ensure that this market share is
remove a major chokepoint and ensure sufficient capacity well into the future.
protected and maintained. The canal may also become a driver of transportation and logistics growth in
In all likelihood, whatever cost advantages the canal

expansion facilitates for the lines will be passed through to shippers .
However, as this analysis demonstrates, there is a dichotomy in how shippers route
cargo. And unless routing cargo through an expanded canal helps
shippers substantially improve their overall supply chain costs, they
will not greatly increase their usage of all-water service from Asia to
the USEC. If such savings were present, shippers would abandon the
USWC todaysomething that is not happening. It is also likely that as the size of
container ships in the U.S.-Asia trade increases, carriers will increasingly concentrate
vessel calls at fewer USEC ports. It seems clear that the Panama Canal Authority and
only a handful of USEC ports will benefit after 2014. The other USEC ports would
the Caribbean.
do well to remember the words of former Montreal Mayor Jean Drapeau, who said, "The Olympics can no
more lose money than a man can have a baby." Following the 1976 Olympics, the city was left with a debt

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Some ports that are betting on a post-2014 cargo

boom could suffer a similar fate.
that took 30 years to repay.

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Navy 1NC
Naval ships will become faster to accommodate for more
port congestiondredging is unnecessary because
number of ships wont increase.
Once carriers establish their rotations (the order in which they call at
various ports) vessel-deployment decisions are largely based on
transit times. The decision process, however, is a "Rubik's Cube" of
possibilities and tradeoffs. Since 1980, container ships have become larger (up to
15,000+ TEUs) and faster (upwards of 25 knots). However, the faster the steaming speed, the more fuel is
consumed. At the same time, faster speed means fewer vessels are
needed to maintain a fixed-day-of-the-week service. The established order of
larger ships and ever-faster transit times was disrupted by the market conditions of 2008-2009, when freight rates
To
reduce fuel costs, ship lines implemented "slow steaming" ( 15-18 knots)
and "super-slow steaming" (10-15 knots). While this strategy required them to add vessels, there
were plenty available at a reasonable price7 and the fuel savings were great enough to
plunged and fuel prices spiked. Bunker fuel pricing has ranged from US $250 to $750 per ton in the last five years.
cover the cost of the additional ships.
Alt Causes:
a) Petroleum energy use is decreasing naval readiness
now
United States Navy no date (The Department of the Navys Energy Goals no date
cited. Navy.mil.), KTG
The United States Navy and Marine Corps rely far too much on
petroleum, a dependency that degrades the strategic position of our
country and the tactical performance of our forces. The global
supply of oil is finite, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find and
exploit, and over time cost continues to rise.
b) Lack of officers, training, and technology is decreasing

naval readiness.
Thompson 12 (Lessons not learned: the U.S. Navys status quo culture
by Roger Thompson- found on Google Books, M.A. January 2, 2012. Former
worker for US Air Force.), KTG
Lack of training, overrated technology, bad policies , and technocratic
leadershipDespite its vastly superior numbers, resources, and expensive weapons, the US navy, the
worlds only true heavyweight navy, continually fails to vanquish welterweight and
lightweight naval powers. This would indicate that training and the selection
and development of officers into professionsnot big, expensive ships and
bloated budgetsare key to naval power. The problem is the personnel
systemthe foundation of military culturethat truly undermines the performance of the US Navy, reaching out and
affecting all other institutions that constitute a military organization.

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C) The main problem with naval mobility is land

infrastructure, not ports.
Debbie Messina, Transportation Research Board, 7/2011, PhD
in journalism, Region's roads impede Navy mobility, report finds,
http://hamptonroads.com/2011/07/regions-roads-impede-navy-mobilityreport-finds
About 125,000 Navy personnel use area roads daily to get to work. And
they could use some help, a draft report by the Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization shows. The
study identifies transportation needs for the military and recommends improvements, suggesting,
among other things, more lanes across the Hampton Roads harbor, replacing or rehabbing
deficient bridges, light-rail extensions, and high-speed passenger
trains to Washington, D.C., that can get their people to the Pentagon and back in a day. But it does not identify funding. Military
personnel - including active duty, reserves, retirees and their families - number 300,000, about 20
percent of the region's population. Military representatives told
planners that congestion hurts their ability to maintain military
personnel or even bring additional personnel here. Traffic not only
affects daily commuting but also travel times between installations
during business hours. " Time in transit, particularly when amplified
by delays
at bridges, tunnels and several traffic congestion delays,
significantly detracts from mission-
performance effectiveness and efficiency," retired Marine Corps Maj.

Gen. Jon A. Gallinetti told regional planners as they prepared the report. Retired Rear
Adm. Paul E. Tobin Jr. said a key element of success for the Navy's mission
is mobility, but it's impeded "because our transportation
infrastructure is in decline and struggling to meet our needs."
Traffic safety is so important that the fleet commander gets briefed
weekly on accidents and incidents involving Navy personnel , the report says.
Among the recommendations: - Emphasize roadways serving the military when prioritizing construction and maintenance needs. - Widen portions of Interstate 64;
improve I-264 interchanges; add capacity across the Hampton Roads harbor, whether it be at the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel or a new crossing; and expand light rail to
Norfolk Naval Station and into Virginia Beach. - Replace or rehabilitate structurally deficient bridges, including Victory Boulevard over Paradise Creek in Portsmouth,
Granby Street over Masons Creek in Norfolk, and I-264 over Lynnhaven Parkway in Virginia Beach. - Use a minimum vertical clearance of 14 feet as tunnels are
constructed or replaced, a minimum vertical clearance of 16 feet at new interstate bridges, and a minimum of 12 feet on new highway lanes to accommodate military
The planning organization, within the year, will survey military

personnel about challenges on their daily commutes.
vehicles.

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Agriculture/Food Prices 1NC

Litany of alternate causes to food pricesvolatility is
inevitable. (AMAZING CARD)
FAO, June 2 2011, Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses, also prepared
by the IFAD, IMF,OECD, UNCTAD, WFP, the World Bank, the WTO, IFPRI and the UN HLTF; Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development; http://www.oecd.org/trade/agricultural-trade/48152638.pdf, KTG
The determinants of future increases in food prices and of

volatility 18. Growing population and income in emerging and
developing countries will add significantly to the demand for food in
the coming decades
2.1
. By 2050 the worlds population is expected to have reached about 9 billion people and the demand for food to have increased by between 70% and
100%. This alone is sufficient to exert pressure on commodity prices. According to the latest OECD/FAO medium term outlook projections, prices of crops and most livestock products will be higher in both real and
nominal terms during the decade to 2019 than they were in the decade before the 2007/08 price spikes. If the rate of growth of agricultural production does not keep pace with demand, upward pressure on prices
will result. A demand or supply shock in a situation where the supply-demand balance is already tight, can, for the reasons explained in the previous paragraph, result in increased volatility around the upward
19. The demand for food and feed crops for the production of
biofuels is another significant factor.
trend.
During the 2007-2009 period biofuels accounted for a significant share of global use of several
crops 20% for sugar cane, 9% for vegetable oil and coarse grains and 4% for sugar beet. Projections encompass a broad range of possible effects but all suggest that biofuel production will exert considerable
upward pressure on prices in the future. For example, according to one study international prices for wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds and vegetable oil could be increased by 8%, 13%, 7% and 35% respectively10.
biofuel
production will aggravate the price inelasticity of demand that
contributes to volatility in agricultural prices. 20. Agricultural
commodity prices are becoming increasingly correlated with oil
prices. Oil prices affect agricultural input prices directly and
indirectly
Moreover, as long as governments impose mandates (obligations to blend fixed proportions of biofuels with fossil fuels, or binding targets for shares of biofuels in energy use),
(through the price of fuel and fertiliser, for example). In addition, depending on the relative prices of agricultural crops and oil, biofuel production may become profitable (without
government support) in some OECD countries. Financial investment in commodities may also have contributed to an increasing correlation between oil and non-oil commodity prices because of the significant share
of such investment that tracks indexes containing a basket of different commodities. High and volatile oil prices (if that is what is expected) could therefore contribute to higher and more volatile agricultural prices,
through higher input costs, higher demand for the commodities used in the production of biofuels (sugar, maize, vegetable oils), through competition for land with commodities that are not used directly for the
21. Low stocks relative to use, and

uncertainty about stock levels in some parts of the world
contributed to
price spike
production of fuel, and possibly through financial investment in commodity baskets.
the 2007/2008
. Stocks can be drawn down in response to a supply or demand shock, but once they have been depleted, supply can
no longer be increased until new production comes on board. Even expectations of depleted stocks may lead prices to rise sharply. The low stock levels observed in recent years have been attributed to the partial
dismantling of price support and intervention purchase schemes in some OECD countries, as well as to correction of the quality of information on private and government held stocks in important producing and
consuming countries. Stocks were rebuilt during 2009 and the first part of 2010 but currently stocks are again being depleted. If stock levels 10 PRICE VOLATILITY IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL MARKETS: POLICY
RESPONSES 11 remain low in major markets, and projections based on existing knowledge of market conditions and policy settings suggest that they may, the risk of volatility in prices will remain high.
22. Climatic factors have indisputably contributed to
price rises
Canada,
another important supplier, experienced weather related low
yields for several crops
drought followed by fire in the Russian
Federation,
these weather-related events are
cyclical
climate change will
lead to worsening
conditions in some arid and semi-arid regions where agricultural
production is already difficult
the
in
2007/2008 and again in 2010. In 2008, an already tight market situation for wheat was aggravated by drought in Australia, which is an important supplier of wheat to world markets.
also
. More recently,
fears about the Australian and Argentinean crops, and several downward revisions of US crop forecasts in late 2010 and early 2011 have brought strong market reactions and
soaring prices. It is not clear whether
transitory in nature,
harbingers of long term climate change. Experts concur broadly that
(El Nino and La Nina) or the
, in the longer term,
, while temperate regions in particular, but not exclusively, may benefit. It is also thought that climate change will lead to
more frequent extreme events such as droughts, heat waves and floods. Clearly, climate change will provoke some adjustment of production patterns around the world, as well as increased risks of local or regional
23. Stronger demand for food crops and animal

products in conjunction with slow growth in agricultural productivity
and low stocks results in upward pressure on prices
supply problems that could add to future volatility.
. Recent years have also seen some shift in
production patterns, particularly of food and feed grains, and world markets are more dependent on supplies from the Black Sea region and other, newer, agricultural production regions than in the past. Yields in
these regions are less stable and supply more variable than in some other parts of the world where natural conditions are better and where application of the most up-to-date technologies and management
As the geographical distribution of production

changes, supply may therefore become more variable, in turn
leading to increased price volatility. 24. The same underlying factors
that are leading to increased demand for food growth in
population, affluence leading to increased demand for animal
protein, urbanisation, and biofuels are also increasing pressure on
finite resources such as land and water
25. During the 2007-2008
period, some policy measures put in place by a number of
practices have increased and stabilised yields.
. While such resource constraints are, thus far, more local than global in nature, growing
concern is evident and the associated uncertainty may imply upward pressure on prices and continuing or increased volatility.

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governments contributed directly and indirectly to the crisis (export

restrictions, hoarding increasing the amplitude of price movements
),
and
in some cases provoking price increases that were otherwise inexplicable in terms of the market fundamentals. Inappropriate policy responses also contributed to volatility and could continue to do so unless the
Additionally, private and public actors

responding to the general nervousness of the markets,
engaged in hoarding or precipitated purchases in an already tense
market situation
26. Trade in
many agricultural commodities is denominated in USD. A
depreciating USD, as occurred in the years before and up to the
peak of the price rises, causes dollar denominated international
commodity prices to rise,
international community is able to take steps to avoid such actions.
or for speculative reasons,
. How to avoid repetition of these types of damaging private and public reactions is addressed later in this report.
although not to the full extent of the depreciation. The opposite occurs when the dollar appreciates as was the case from mid-2008
onwards. These currency movements added to the amplitude of the price changes observed. (They also help to explain why demand remained strong in countries where the currency was appreciating against the
dollar and why falling prices were not fully felt in the same countries once the dollar began to appreciate again.) Exchange rate volatility per se is 11 12 PRICE VOLATILITY IN FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL
MARKETS: POLICY RESPONSES beyond the scope of this report but if the future is marked by increased exchange rate volatility this will also have repercussions for the volatility of international prices of
commodities.
27.
There is no doubt that investment in financial derivatives markets for agricultural commodities increased strongly in the mid-2000s, but there is disagreement about the role of financial
While analysts argue about whether

financial speculation has been a major factor, most agree that
increased participation by non-commercial actors such as index
funds, swap dealers and money managers in financial markets
probably acted to amplify short term price swings
Against this background the extent to which financial
speculation might be a determinant of agricultural price volatility in
the future is also subject to disagreement
well functioning
derivatives markets for agricultural commodities, could play a
significant role in reducing or smoothing price fluctuations
speculation as a driver of agricultural commodity price increases and volatility.
and could have contributed to the formation of price
bubbles in some situations.
. It is clear however that
indeed, this is one of the
primary functions of commodity futures markets. This topic will be taken up in more detail in Chapter 3.
Agricultural exports high and will be sustainable.

Joseph W. Glauber, Chief Economic at the Department of Ag, February 21
2013, Outlook for U.S. Agriculture in 2013, USDA Agricultural Outlook
Forum; http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/presentations/Glauber.pdf, ktg

U.S. agricultural exports for fiscal year (FY) 2013 are projected at $142
billion, down $3 billion from the November 2012 forecast, but $6.2 billion above FY 2012
levels and a record in nominal terms after adjusting for inflation (figure
1). The pace of exports this year has been impressive. In the first
three months of the fiscal year the United States exported $43
billion of agricultural products, greater than what we exported
annually in the early 1990s. Imports for FY 2013 are forecast at $112.5 billion, also a record. The
agricultural trade balance for FY 2013 is forecast at $29.5 billion.
Climate change makes agriculture unsustainable

(specifically, corn, soybean, wheat production).
Katherine Kidder, 5/3/2013, GAO: Climate Change Puts U.S. Agriculture at High Risk, Center for a
New American Security; Katherine Kidder is a Joseph S. Nye Jr. Research Intern at the Center for a New
American Security, Mrs. Kidder is a Doctoral Candidate in Security Studies at Kansas State University, Mrs.
Kidder holds a Bachelor of Science in History with an emphasis on military history and a Master of Arts in
Security Studies, both from Kansas State University;
http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2013/05/gao-climate-change-puts-us-agriculture-high-risk.html,
KTG
Government Accountability Office High-Risk Series Report lists

climate change as a high financial risk factor for the U.S.
government. Specifically, it addresses the impacts of climate change on
agricultural production and the U.S. governments ability to respond
to impending agricultural crises. Citing the United States Global Change Research Program, the report
For the first time, the February 2013

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the impacts and costliness of weather disasters- resulting from

floods [and] drought- will increase in significance as what are
considered rare events become more common and intense due to
climate change. The potential costs to the federal government are substantial, particularly with regards to its role as insurer
states,
of property and crops vulnerable to climate impacts. GAOs prescience has proven evident in recent weeks. The Midwest (to include Illinois,
Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin) has experienced debilitating
extremes of drought and floods. Every county in Kansas and 89 of the 93 counties in Nebraska have been declared drought emergencies well
The
implications of the drought and flood cycle are far-reaching for U.S.
markets and policy. According to the USDA and the EPA, the affected
region accounts for 85% of U.S. corn production, 81% of U.S.
soybean production, and approximately 67% of U.S. wheat
production. Corn exports comprise the largest net contribution to
the U.S. agricultural trade balance of all agricultural commodities highlighting the importance of developing effective crop crisis response. Drought and flood will continue
to persist as long-term problems. Yet the current fiscally constrained
environment further limits the governments ability to respond in an
ad-hoc fashion to crop disasters resulting from climate change . GAO
before harvest season. Simultaneously, 48 of the 102 counties in Illinois experienced flooding and devastation of crop land.
recommends a new look at the way federal crop insurance functions, taking into account permanent changes in climate patterns that have
emerged since the inception of federal crop and flood insurance programs. It also recommends concerted efforts at data collection and
analysis to ascertain the impacts of long-term climate change exposure- both on agriculture and the structure of insurance. Most importantly,
the GAO recommends a stronger relationship between the Secretary of Agriculture and the Secretary of Homeland Security regarding the
effects of climate change on agricultural production- establishing U.S. food security as a matter of national security.
US (soybean/cotton/meat/grains) exports to China are

solid and will be solid.
Joseph W. Glauber, Chief Economic at the Department of Ag, February 21
2013, Outlook for U.S. Agriculture in 2013, USDA Agricultural Outlook
Forum; http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/presentations/Glauber.pdf
Exports to China are projected to be $22 billion , down $1.4 billion from last
years record, but for the second straight year edging out Canada ($21 billion)
as the number one market for U.S. agricultural exports (figure 2). U.S.
agricultural exports to China have grown, on average, almost 20 percent annually
since FY 2005. Soybeans and cotton have dominated U.S. agricultural
exports to China, accounting for as much as 75 percent of total
agricultural exports in recent years, although red meats, coarse
grains, and feeds and fodder have all shown strong growth (figure 3).

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Short Sea Shipping Negative

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DA

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1NC
1. Uniqueness and LinkFunds in the Harbor Maintenance
Trust Fund are high but stretched tightfunding Short
Sea Shipping drains the HMTF.
Larry Ehl, January 29, 2012, Harbor Maintenance Tax Subject of
Wednesday Hearing in House, Larry Ehl is a transportation expert from TID;
Tranportation Issues Daily; http://www.transportationissuesdaily.com/harbormaintenance-tax-subject-of-wednesday-hearing-in-house/, KTG
The Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF) provides funds for the United States Army
Corps of Engineers (Corps) to dredge federally maintained harbors to their authorized depths and widths.
The HMTF is funded by the Harbor Maintenance Tax (HMT), under which certain users of U.S. coastal and
Great Lakes harbors pay a tariff of $1.25 per $1,000 in cargo value passing through these waters. The tax
applies to imported and domestic waterborne cargo, as well as the ticket

value of cruise ship passengers. The tax was intended to provide a sufficient,
stable long-term source of funding to pay for harbor dredging to
maintain authorized depths and widths. In recent years, HMTF
expenditures have remained flat while HMT collections have
increased with rising imports, creating a low hanging fruit in the
trust fund. The HMTFs uncommitted balance continues to grow and reached an estimated $6.1
billion at the beginning of fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2010 alone, $1.2 billion in Harbor Maintenance
Taxes were collected, while only $793 million was spent on dredging and related maintenance. Despite the
accumulating balances in the HMTF, many U.S. harbors are under-maintained, resulting in the full channel
dimensions of Americas busiest ports available less than 35 percent of the time. Reduced channel
A
potential concern with the structure of the HMTF arises with respect
to what is known as short sea shipping. Some have argued that the HMT
itself is a major reason why very little non-bulk commercial cargo is
transported using inland and coastal waterways. Currently, the use of
short sea shipping, which involves the movement of cargo along coastal and inland waters,
would reduce this balance in the HMTF, shifting away from other
Army Corps projects, while it is primarily limited to bulk cargo while commercial non-bulk cargo
dimensions could increase both the cost of shipping and the risk of grounding or collision.
is moved throughout the U.S. via other modes of transportation
2. HMT Surplus is key to dredging and deepening United

States seaportsfund depletion leads to failure.
Leone, MPA port director, 2012
(Michael, Harbor Maintenance Funding and Maritime Tax Issues," CQ
Congressional Testimony, 2-1, lexis)
As a result, only about 35% of America's navigation channels are currently at their authorized depth and width, which
means that vessels calling our ports cannot be fully loaded or may be restricted to a one way transit. The entire maritime
industry, therefore, is grateful for the oversight provided by your committees to ensure this tax on port users is used for
its intended purpose -- ensuring that the navigation channels leading to our ports are regularly dredged to their
authorized dimensions so that vessels calling our ports can deliver essential commodities and can take American made
Only with regular investments in dredging can these

critical parts of our national transportation system continue to serve as
gateways for the more than two billion tons of domestic, import and export cargo they are expected
to handle each year, which in turn helps keep American businesses - both large and
small - competitive in world markets. This concern is even greater today as East and Gulf Coast ports prepare
for the larger vessels that will be transiting though an expanded Panama Canal. What is frustrating for many
port directors who have dredging needs that go unmet is that the money for these projects is
available. The users of our ports and harbors still pay their full share for maintenance
products to its global customers.

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dredging - over one dollar for every thousand dollars worth of imported and domestic cargo they move - while only
getting back half as much benefit in return. Current estimates are that users of our nation's waterways are
paying approximately $1.4 billion per year in harbor maintenance taxes
which is about the amount the Army Corps of Engineers has determined is the
annual need for maintenance dredging . Yet, this past fiscal year only about $820
million was appropriated for channel maintenance. That still leaves, according to the
most recent estimates I've seen, a surplus in the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund of about
$6.4 billion and growing. This shortfall in funding is of particular concern to regional or niche ports, which
are usually not included in the President's budget, because they generally handle less tonnage than the major container
maintenance dredging , for example,

could be completed if all of the HMT was appropriated each year . Not
and bulk cargo ports. There are many ports in Massachusetts in need of
which
every port will need to have channels that are 50-feet deep in order to handle the largest ships that will traverse the
expanded Panama Canal when that modernization project is set to be complete in 2014. But many will, and others will
need to be dredged to handle the larger vessels that will be used in moving cargo from the larger hub ports to regional
ports. In the meantime, individual ports have been dredging our own berths at our own cost, buying cranes that can
handle these larger vessels, and investing in terminal infrastructure. Indeed, it's estimated that seaports invest more than
$2.5 billion every year to maintain and improve their infrastructure, which is why ports are often discouraged that federal
investments in maintenance dredging have not kept pace with their own. The larger issue is that spending on
maintenance dredging is particularly critical at this time, and not only because of the larger ships that ports will soon be
expected to handle, but to ensure that the Administration's National Export Initiative of doubling U.S. exports can be
fulfilled. U. S. ports are the gateways for international trade and having a modern, reliable and cost-effective marine
transportation system will expedite the delivery of U.S. exports to the global marketplace. Delays in the movement of
exported cargo will only hurt the competiveness of U.S exports. As is true throughout the country, the Port of Boston is a
vital economic engine for the New England region -- carrying cargo, opening markets for domestic goods, creating jobs
and generating economic prosperity for our citizens. American seaports carry all but about 1% of the country's overseas
cargo. They help generate almost 30% of Gross Domestic Product and support more than 13 million jobs. America's
economic future depends on modern ports with facilities adequate enough, and channels deep enough, to keep pace with
It is now critical that Congress honor its pledge to maintain the

nation's ports and harbors with the revenue provided by users . This can be
accomplished through a shift in funding priorities in both the Congress and within the
Administration, given that annual revenue is available and adequate to
the demands of the global economy.
meet current needs . I would also urge the passage of H.R. 104 that would
require that the annual Harbor Maintenance Tax revenue be made fully
available to the Army Corps of Engineers for maintenance dredging in its annual
appropriation. No obstacle can exist in HMT surplus . I, along with many other
Port Directors, strongly support passage of H.R. 104 so that our marine transportation system
can remain efficient and continue to serve as a national and regional
economic engine.
3. Turns casePort dredging key to trade and the

econom.
Army Corps of Engineers 2012 (U.S. Port and Inland Waterways
Modernization Strategy Options for the Future, 4-2,

http://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/docs/portswaterways/Port_and_Inland_Waterwa
ys_Options_for_the_Futu e_Working_Draft_v1_2012_Apr_01.pdf, DOA: 7-12-12)
The health of the U.S. economy depends upon the vitality and
expansion of international trade. International trade depends upon
the nations navigation infrastructure, which serves as a conduit for
transportation, trade and tourism and connects us to the global
community. Marine transportation is one of the most efficient,
effective, safe and environmentally sound ways to transport people
and goods. It is a keystone of the U.S. economy. ___ percent [data to be inserted in next draft] of our
international trade moves through the nations ports. The navigation industry is
building ever larger ships to serve this global trade more effectively,
reducing transportation costs across the world. These larger vessels, known

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as post-Panamax
vessels, are expected to call at U.S. ports in increasing

in 2014. A modern, robust
navigation infrastructure can exist without significant harm to the
environment, reduce the transportation systems carbon footprint
and enhance economic opportunities for future generations. Sustaining a
numbers, especially after the expansion of the Panama Canal
modern U.S. navigation system will require a coordinated effort between government, industry and other
stakeholders. Critical Need for Capacity Maintenance and Expansion Congress has directed the USACE
Institute for Water Resources to submit to the Senate and House committees on appropriations this report
on how the Congress should address the critical need for additional port and inland waterways
modernization to accommodate post-Panamax vessels. This report identifies the critical need for capacity
maintenance and expansion on both the nations inland waterways and blue water ports. This identification
has been accomplished through an evaluation of the future demand for capacity in terms of freight
forecasts and vessel size expectations and an evaluation of the current capacity of the nations inland
international trade is
expected to grow as the worlds population and standard of living
grow. Export of U.S. agricultural goods could increase as larger bulk vessels reduce the cost of delivery
waterways and blue water ports. Despite the recent worldwide recession,
to foreign markets. Trade at the nations blue water ports is expected to expand as the population grows,
especially in regions where most of that growth occurs. As international trade expands, the number of
The nations ability to attract these

vessels and allow full use of their capacity is the key to realizing the
trade opportunities these vessels represent. There is a high degree
of uncertainty in the details of when such vessels will arrive in large
post-Panamax vessels is expected to increase.
numbers, which ports they will call, how deep calling vessels will draft and, consequently, how deep and
wide navigation channels and other related navigation infrastructure must be. One pivotal uncertainly is
the role that transshipment hubs in the Caribbean or on U.S. shores could play in transferring freight from
large vessels to smaller feeder vessels. Over time these uncertainties will be reduced as experience
We can be more certain that in the absence of

transshipment centers, post-Panamax vessels will call at ports in
large numbers, they will call at most major ports and their sailing
drafts and other dimensions will become known. Our challenge is to
invest in capacity expansion in the right places at the right time
consistent with industry needs. Port capacity depends upon channel depths, channel
replaces expectation.
widths, turning basin size, sufficient bridge heights and port support structures such as dock and crane
capacity to offload and onload goods. Vessels can be filled to their weight capacity or their volume
capacity. Vessels loaded to their weight capacity sail at their maximum design draft; they sit deeper in the
water. The deepest channel requirements are likely to be driven by these weight trade services. The
Asian export trade, however, is considered a cube trade (i.e. volume trade). For volume trade routes,
channel width and turning basin size may be of greater importance than additional channel depth at some
ports, as vessels loaded to their volume capacity often sail at significantly less than their design draft.
Careful consideration is needed when determining channel depth requirements at U.S. ports for this trade
The deployment of post-Panamax vessels to deliver U.S.

agricultural products to Asian markets through the expanded
Panama Canal could significantly reduce the delivery costs. One estimate
suggests cost reductions as high as $ 0.35 per bushel, which could result in a surge in
exports and traffic on the inland waterway system. The inland waterway
route.
system can accommodate the forecasted increase in exported agricultural products as long as other nongrain traffic remains at current levels and the system is maintained at current capacity.
Existing
inland waterway system capacity is maintained through

maintenance dredging and major rehabilitation projects. A Vision for
Sustaining a Globally Competitive Navigation System As a maritime nation our
economic prosperity is directly linked to our investments in
navigation infrastructure. Just as current generations benefit from investments made in the
past, the ability of future generations to prosper and grow will depend
on infrastructure investment decisions made today. A globally
competitive U.S. navigation transportation system for the 21st
Century will have these characteristics: Environmentally compatible development,

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High-performance and reliable

navigation channels, turning basins and other related navigation
infrastructure that are maintained to constructed depths and
widths. Channels and ports that are not the limiting component to
competitive global freight movement Navigation locks that are reliable and available
infrastructure and operations. Multi-modal connectivity.
to pass traffic on demand with lock chambers consistently sized for efficient movement of freight.
Navigation jetties that are planned, constructed and maintained for safe, reliable and efficient freight
Dredged material placement facilities that are planned,

constructed and maintained to be available when needed for
navigation channel maintenance, never impeding dredging efforts.
movement.
Capital investments in navigation locks for replacement, major rehabilitation, or expanded capacity that
are established through a capital investment plan that identifies and prioritizes on a system basis.
Capital investment plans that are shovel-ready as investment funds are identified. An identified
mechanism for the financing of operations, maintenance and capacity improvements. New, large vessels
are typically deployed on the longest and largest trade service Asia to Northern Europe. The smaller
vessels on that service are forced to re-deploy to the next most efficient service for that vessel size. This
cascading continues until the most marginal vessels in the fleet are forced to be scrapped. Cascading
typically increases average vessel size for each trade service, placing demands on the port infrastructure
For U.S. ports to be ready to take advantage

of post-Panamax vessel opportunities, major ports not only need to
be post-Panamax ready, but second tier ports need to be cascade
ready to take advantage of larger vessels that begin to service
their trade.
to support larger capacity vessels.
Solves private investment.

Gary A. Lombardo, 2012, Short Sea Shipping: Practices, Opportunities,
and Challenges, Ph.D. in Management from University of Oregon; fellow at

the Ludwig von Mises Institute; United States Merchant Marine Academy;
http://www.insourceaudit.com/WhitePapers/Short_Sea_Shipping.asp, KTG
Obstacle #3: Increased Public Funding Needed to Complement
Private Investment. A series of four equally important
recommendations were offered: 1) gain initial support for vessel
construction; 2) secure funding for start-up costs; 3) receive funding
for inland waterway and landside improvements; and 4) do not use
existing Harbor Maintenance Tax infrastructure fund balances to
support short sea shipping initiatives. Expected benefits include public
transportation improvements, highway congestion relief, environmental and
health and welfare benefits and the growth in the short sea shipping industry
with a commensurate increase in employment. Vessel, start-up, facility and
infrastructure cost categories were identified.
Short Sea Shipping drains the HMTFlowers exports

which turns case.
In addition to vessel construction costs, short sea shipping is dependent on
achieving a competitive cost structure to vie with trucking and rail
for the shippers contracts. One cost consideration is the requisite
upgrading of port and terminal facilities currently geared for deep
sea merchant vessels; not the needs of smaller short sea shipping

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Longshore labor rates are another factor that may cause increased costs for cargo shipped
the Harbor Maintenance Tax, as currently configured, will

add to the cargo transportation costs for shippers selecting the
short sea network. Short Sea Shipping would erase adequate
requisite funds within the ongoing budget. The tax is an ad valorem
charge on exports, imports, other shipments, and passenger
transportation involving use of a harbor.
via short sea vessels. Further,

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Solvency 1NC
1. Short Sea Shipping Fails
a) Lack of Awareness and coordination:

Obstacle #1: A Lack of Awareness. The session participants suggested
that three equally important and critical activities will build awareness.
Increased coordination and prioritization are needed among local,
state and provincial authorities in Canada, Mexico and the United
States. A greater understanding of the complementary interests and
relationships among the various transportation nodes is needed. Further,
increased knowledge about the costs of short sea shipping is
needed. Participants recommended that increased education and
outreach to governmental leaders, organized labor, and the general
public were essential as well as increased participation in shipper
organizations to make short sea shippings beneficial aspects
known. Advocacy, R&D, outreach materials and research study cost
categories were identified.
b) Competitive Shore-side and Port Capital Costs


Obstacle #2: The Need for Competitive Shoreside and Port Capital Costs.
Four equally weighted solutions were recommended to overcome
this obstacle: 1) identification of short sea shipping costs and
assessment of these costs in relation to other transportation modes;
2) reduction of both operational costs and the Harbor Maintenance
Tax burden; 3) public and/or private investment for shoreside
infrastructure; and 4) extension of loan guarantees. The expected benefit
would be to reduce costs to make short sea shipping competitive with alternative transportation modes.
R&D and tax policy cost categories were identified.
c) No private investmentonly excluding the HMTF

solves.
Obstacle #3: Increased Public Funding Needed to Complement
Private Investment. A series of four equally important
recommendations were offered: 1) gain initial support for vessel
construction; 2) secure funding for start-up costs; 3) receive funding
for inland waterway and landside improvements; and 4) do not use

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existing Harbor Maintenance Tax infrastructure fund balances to

support short sea shipping initiatives. Expected benefits include public
transportation improvements, highway congestion relief, environmental and
health and welfare benefits and the growth in the short sea shipping industry
with a commensurate increase in employment. Vessel, start-up, facility and
infrastructure cost categories were identified.
d) No coordination with existing transportation systems


Two interrelated challenges exist: one, to master an understanding
of the short sea shipping concept and two, to develop short sea
shipping as an efficient and effective complement to the existing
transportation system. The conceptual model is offered to focus discussion and eventually
enhance understanding concerning the short sea shipping concept as a commercially viable enterprise.
e) Depends on port industry and freight and trucking.

In addition to vessel construction costs, short sea shipping is
dependent on achieving a competitive cost structure to vie with
trucking and rail for the shippers contracts. One cost consideration
is the requisite upgrading of port and terminal facilities currently
geared for deep sea merchant vessels; not the needs of smaller
short sea shipping vessels. Longshore labor rates are another factor
that may cause increased costs for cargo shipped via short sea
vessels. Further, the Harbor Maintenance Tax, as currently
configured, will add to the cargo transportation costs for shippers
selecting the short sea network. The tax is an ad valorem charge on
exports, imports, other shipments, and passenger transportation
involving use of a harbor.

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2NC Solvency
Extend first Lombardo cardno shippers have awareness
over Short Sea Shipping meaning there would be intermodal coordination, which leads to solvency failure.
Extend second Lombardo cardthere is too much burden
on the port industry, the HMTF, and seaside industries to
incentivizeleads to no loan guarantees resulting in
failures.
Extend third Lombardo cardno private companies are
interested in investing in the Harbor Maintenance Trust
Fund due to lack of competitive viability. Meaning there is
viability and no funding.
Extend fourth Lombardo cardthere is no coordination
with existing transportation systems such and freight and
trucking to be efficient.
Extend fifth Lombardo cardin order for SSS to be
successful, the freight and trucking industry needs to be
successful as well. Depending on other forms of
transportation overstretches freight and trucking leading
to failure and hiking labor rates.
SSS Fails
a) Too complex to organize.
International Transport Forum, 2008, Short Sea Shipping in
Europe, European Reference of Ministries of Transport; Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development;
http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/IntOrg/ecmt/pubpdf/01ShortSea.p
df, KTG
1. Complex to organise. Red tape and the complexity of throughcarriage involving a maritime leg due to overlapping contracts of
carriage and liability regimes are often criticised. Public health
inspections, customs formalities and dangerous goods regulations
are cited as obstacles to the development of short sea shipping. Most
of the time, maritime freight transport is part of a multimodal, not a unimodal, operation. Successive
modal transfers entail additional risks and costs for shippers, consignees and forwarders. The problem of
modal transfers and their cost is a general one, shared by all alternatives to road transport as soon as they
form part of a multimodal chain
b) Technically not feasible and slow.


File Title
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Keerthi Gondi

df, KTG
2. Technically not flexible enough and slow. In the U.S., the vessels
used for short sea shipping
are old (about 20 years old) and generally not purpose-built (between
57 and 72 per cent of 3
the fleet used for short sea shipping are reported to be multi-purpose vessels) . The current trend
towards gradual replacement of the present fleet by faster, better
designed and more commercial vessels is likely to become more
marked over the next few years: combined high-speed ro-ro ships,
self-unloading bulk carriers, small containerships able to cater for
40 containers and better suited to inland transport loading units
than 20 containers. Another factor that contributes to inflexibility is the low penetration of
maritime transport inland -- an obstacle that inland waterway/maritime transport could help to overcome.
c) Difficult to assess efficiency of policies.

df, KTG
3. Difficult to assess. The lack of statistics is an added handicap. The
result is that potential users have only a patchy picture of this mode
of transport. The lack of transparency with regard to existing or
potential services, provided by regular lines or not, is often quoted
by shippers as a factor which puts them off using short sea shipping.
The lack of statistical data also makes it difficult, for governments to
assess the efficiency of policies implemented and hampers their
ability to forecast market trends.
d) No land access for SSSleads to high costs for

containers and failure.

df, KTG
Lastly, the issue of land access to ports is regularly cited as a major
obstacle to the development of maritime transport. From a multimodal
standpoint, it is essential that ports have adequate, efficient links to
land transport networks. The planning of land access infrastructure
is vital for a ports development. Infrastructure investment and user charging policies
also play an important role in ensuring a coherent European port network and in competition between
rail and inland waterway infrastructure and

their connections to ports, the challenge that ports are now facing is their competitive
ports. As well as the problems of road,
position compared to other land transfer terminals. As well as network connections, different standards for
loading units for land and maritime transport are also holding up the development of maritime transport.
Sea containers are not really suitable for European pallets and,
when they are used, stuffing rates are low. Consequently, low returns are a problem
when sea containers are used on land routes.

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Transpo Security Specific

Plan Negative

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Multi-Plank CP
The National Security Council and the Office of
Management and Budget should:
1. Conduct a Quadrennial National Security Review to
develop security strategy
2. Develop common inter-agency terminologies for each
mission area through NSC-led working groups
3. Conduct NSC/OMB mission area reviews for top security
priorities
4. Conduct regular NSC interagency summits
5. The Office of Personal Management should develop a
security career path that would give career professionals
incentives to seek out interagency experience, education,
and training
6. Congress should approve a 10% personnel float for key
civilian agencies to enable interagency education.
First, the counterplan solvesit erases inter-agency
conflict and improves Security.
Clark A. Murdock and Michele A. Flournoy, 2012, Creating a More
Integrated and Effective National Security Apparatus, Murdock is a Senior
Advisor and Director at the Center for Strategic International Studies;
Flournoy is the former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and president of
the Center for a New American Security; report for the Center for Strategic
Leadership at the U.S. Army War College,
http://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/Publications/Chapter%20Six%20-%20Creating
%20a%20More%20Integrated%20and%20Effective%20National%20Security
%20Apparatus.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/Publications/Chapter%20Six
%20-%20Creating%20a%20More%20Integrated%20and%20Effective
%20National%20Security%20Apparatus.pdf, KTG
A robust strategic planning process for national security should
include the following elements: Conduct a Quadrennial National
Security Review (QNSR) to develop U.S. national security strategy
and determine the capabilities required to implement the strategy .
Every four years, at the outset of his or her term, the President should designate a senior national security
official (most likely the National Security Adviser) to lead an interagency process to develop a U.S. national
security strategy and identify the capabilities requiredeconomic, diplomatic, military, informational, and
so onto implement the strategy. The review would engage all of the national security agencies in an
effort to produce both the National Security Planning Guidance described below and the unclassified
The review would begin with

an assessment of the future security environment and the
development of national security objectives. The heart of the exercise would be
National Security Strategy already mandated by Congress.4

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Keerthi Gondi
devising a national security strategy for achieving these objectives, identifying the capabilities required to
implement the strategy, and delineating agency roles and responsibilities. Such a process would provide
every administration with an opportunity to conduct a strategic 4 The study team believes the
Congressional requirement for the President to submit a National Security Strategy each year should be
amended to require a Quadrennial Na- tional Security Review instead. 75 The Struggle Against Extremist
Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That Foster Terrorism review of U.S. national security policies and
capability requirements and to define a way forward for the future. The QNSR should logically precede and
Develop
common terminologies for each interagency mission area, using
NSC-led interagency working groups. These working groups should focus
provide the conceptual basis for agency reviews like DoDs Quadrennial Defense Review.5
initially on developing common definitions of the mission in each of the four areas, and then identify and
this effort should include all priority

mission areas identified in the Presidents National Security Planning Guidance. Common
terminology would enable interagency and other relevant
stakeholders to discuss these mission areas in the same language,
which would greatly facilitate efforts to build the intellectual
framework for them. The goal of such an effort would not be a comprehensive dictionary of
define key terms in each mission area. Over time,
terms, but basic agreement on the key terms used to define a mission area and its critical tasks
Conduct NSC/OMB mission area reviews for top national security

priorities that require interagency implementation. Mission area
reviews should help to more systematically identify gaps,
duplication, or misalignment among agencies . Recognizing the challenges
inherent in the budget process, the study team believes this strengthened 14 This section describing the
current process draws heavily from an unpublished working paper developed for the BG-N project by Anne
Richard, entitled Interagency Resource Allocations: Understanding and Reforming How Resources Are
Allocated, November 2003. 86 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That
Foster Terrorism review process with NSC providing the policy focus and OMB the fiscal focus should be
confined to very specific mission areas that are among the most critical Presidential priorities and require
Specifically, these mission

area reviews would include the following elements: First, the NSC Senior Director for
Strategic Planning, in coordination with other NSC senior directors and key agencies, would develop
capabilities guidance as part of the Presidents National Security Planning Guidance described
implementation across multiple US Government agencies.
above. This guidance would articulate the baseline capabilities and programs in key mission areas and
Second,
OMB should be the lead
would be issued in the spring, prior to development of the agencies respective budgets.
once the Presidents National Security Planning Guidance is issued,
in tracking planned resource allocation against Presidentially-mandated priorities,

before agencies submit their budgets to OMB. Third, OMB and the NSC should cochair interagency mission area reviews before agency budgets are
finalized. These would build on the hearing process in place today, but would be broader in scope
and participation and would be held on a regular basis. They might be conducted in two phases: in the
early summer, before agency submissions to OMB; and in the fall, as part of the process of finalizing the
Presidents budget submission to Congress. Extra reviews would be held as needed for crisis issues not
Finally, significant unresolved issues would be

raised to the President for decision, as is the case today Conduct
regular NSC-chaired interagency summits in each region . The NSC
foreseen in the budget.
Senior Director for a given region should convene on a regular basis, on behalf of the National Security
Adviser and the President, a summit of the senior USG officials with policy execution responsibilities in
These summits
would review current and planned activities in the region in light of
the Presidents priorities, policies, and planning guidance. They
should also identify ways to improve unity of effort and develop
strategies by which the United States could shape the environment
and possibly prevent crises. These summits might also provide useful bottom-up input into
the region, including (but not limited to) the relevant ambassadors and COCOM.
interagency processes for crisis action planning, as described in the next chapter. 5 AoRs that differ from
OSD(P) ISAs breakdown. NORTHCOM has the US, Canada and Mexico, SOUTHCOM has Central and South
America, CENTCOM has the Middle East and the Newly Independent States of former USSR, EUCOM has
Greenland, Europe, Russia and Africa, and PACOM has India, China, the rest of the Pacific, Australia and

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Antarctica. 89 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That Foster Terrorism
In the longer term, the U.S. government should consider establishing standing Regional Security Councils,
composed of senior representatives from all of the national security departments, that would coordinate
U.S. policy execution on a day-to-day basis and seek approaches to shape the regional environment in
Working with Congress and the national security

agencies, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) should develop
a national security career path that would give career professionals
incentives to seek out interagency experience, education, and
training. Congress should approve a 10% personnel float for key
civilian agencies to enable interagency education, training, and
rotations. One of the most important changes made in the original Goldwater-Nichols legislation was
favorable ways.
the creation of the Joint Service Officer designation and associated incentives for officers to seek joint
service as a way of advancing their careers. Once joint service became essentially a requirement for
promotion to General or Flag Officer, the best talent in each of the Services began to seek out joint
assignments. Building on this model, OPM should work with Congress and the Cabinet agencies involved
in national security to develop a national security career path for civilian professionals.21 Like the Joint
Service Officer model, this 21 This system is very similar in approach to the National Security Service
Corps proposed in the Phase III report of the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (i.e. the
Hart-Rudman Commission). See Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change, The Phase III
Report of the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (Febru- ary 15, 2001), 118. The Phase 1
Report of the Beyond-Goldwater Nichols project recommended creation of a Defense Professional Corps
that would apply to DoD career civilians; in Phase 2, the BG-N study team realized that in order to build the
needed capacity for interagency operations in the federal government, expansion of the Defense
Professional Corps concept to the broader set of national security agencies would be essential. 92 The
Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That Foster Terrorism system would create
incentives for civilian national security professionals to rotate to assignments outside their home
organizations, thereby broadening the experience of individual careerists and creating a pool of civilian
professionals with experience in interagency policy development, programs, and operations.22 To develop
and oversee implementation of a national security career path, the Office of Personnel Management should
chair an interagency oversight board composed of representatives from each of the participating agencies.
This board would identify the positions in the federal government that would be designated as
interagency duty assignments (IDA) and determine the prerequisites for each. The board would also
monitor the development of participating careerists to encourage home agencies to ensure that when
individuals return from rotational assignments, they are placed in positions in their home agencies that
Creating a pool of interagency duty

assignments across government is a central component of
developing a national security career path, but equally important is
linking these rotational assignments to increased upward mobility
for those who participate. Making promotion to the Senior Foreign Service or Senior
leverage their joint experience.23
Executive Service (SES) for national security related positions contingent on completing a rotational
assignment would radically alter the prevailing view in government that outside assignments virtually
guarantee stepping off the promotion track. Linking rotational assignments to accelerated promotion
consideration for career civil servants at lower GS-levels (for example, those in Grades 13 and 14) would
push the incentives further down into the career ranks and speed up the culture change needed to move
from stove-piping to interagency 22 Members of the Foreign Service, while often perceived as different
from individuals serving in GS positions, are also civil servants. The BG-N study team views the Foreign
Service as an important component of the larger pool of career civil servants that would participate in this
national security career path. 23 If OPM and the agencies do not act in a timely fashion, Congress should
step in to create the necessary legislation. 93 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the
Conditions That Foster Terrorism integration. Home agencies, not the OPM-chaired interagency oversight
board, would retain control over the promotion process for their employees in this proposed system. All
agencies participating in the system, however, would need to comply with the OPM mandated
requirements that, to be eligible for SES, candidates must have completed an IDA rotation, and that GS13s and GS-14s who complete an IDA will be immediately eligible for step increases and considered for
Interagency education and training also

will be central to the creation of a national security career path that
develops real interagency professionals. Just as national security career
promotion under accelerated timelines.
professionals who want to join the Senior Executive Service or Senior Foreign Service will be required to
complete an IDA assignment, they also should be required to complete some amount of interagency
education or training before being promoted. In addition to existing billets for civilians at the National War
College and the Foreign Service Institute Senior Seminar, Congress should create a new Center for
Interagency and Coalition Operations that would focus on training national security professionals in
planning, managing, and overseeing complex contingencies and on preparing for deployments to specific

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operations. Should the Department of Homeland Security establish an educational center for its senior
professionals, participation in that program might also fulfill the education and training requirements
associated with the national security career path. Critical to making a national security career path work
is creating a personnel float for participating agencies that will enable rotations, education, and training
as careerists move through the ranks. Congress allows the Military Services 10-15 percent additional end
strength to create a float sufficient to ensure the joint service officer process can work. A similar approach
is needed for national security agencies, beginning at the GS-13 level and above, to enable them to meet
the professional development requirements of the national security career path. Such a float would not be
cost-free, but the return on investment in terms of the enhanced performance of government operations
would be considerable. 94 The Struggle Against Extremist Ideology: Addressing the Conditions That
Foster Terrorism Creating a pool of career professionals with significant experience in interagency policy
development and operations could help to break down the cultural barriers between agencies that too
time, enhancing the number of

career professionals with substantial interagency experience could
establish the human foundation for greater jointness at the
interagency level, and could also appreciably reduce the current
burden on the U.S. military by providing the leadership element of
the civilian capacity needed for complex operations in the field.
often hamper effective U.S. government action. Over
Second, TSSPs Homeland Security approach leads to

interagency issues and turns the case.
Clark A. Murdock and Michele A. Flournoy, 2012, Creating a More
Integrated and Effective National Security Apparatus, Murdock is a Senior
Advisor and Director at the Center for Strategic International Studies;
Flournoy is the former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and president of
the Center for a New American Security; report for the Center for Strategic
Leadership at the U.S. Army War College,
http://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/Publications/Chapter%20Six%20-%20Creating
%20a%20More%20Integrated%20and%20Effective%20National%20Security
%20Apparatus.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/Publications/Chapter%20Six
%20-%20Creating%20a%20More%20Integrated%20and%20Effective
%20National%20Security%20Apparatus.pdf, KTG

File Title
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108
Keerthi Gondi

File Title
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Keerthi Gondi
1NC
Yucca Mountain is native territory of the Western
Shoshonefederal treaties.
Corbin Harney, Western Shoshone spiritual leader, October 2000, Yucca
Mountain: No Place for Nuclear Waste Nuclear Information and Resource

Service, http://www.nirs.org/radwaste/yucca/yuccaltrbycorbin102400.htm,
KTG
Yucca Mountain, in the heart of the Western Shoshone Nation , is a place
of deep spiritual significance to Shoshone and Pauite peoples. Despite this, the federal government plans
to send there 98 percent of the radioactivity generated during the entire Nuclear Age, including the highlevel nuclear waste generated at the U of M's research reactor. The Department of Energy (DOE) has
already spent 5 billion dollars towards the project and wants to spend 50 billion more to complete it before
The government has no right to use Yucca Mountain

this way. Newe Sogobia the land guaranteed the Western
Shoshone Nation by treaty includes Yucca Mountain. Even the
mere study of the site is a violation of the treaty. The Shoshone
people have made their wishes clear: they want the DOE off their land and their
the end of the decade.
mountain restored to them. Because of U.S. nuclear testing in Nevada, the Western Shoshone Nation is
already the most bombed nation on earth. They suffer from widespread cancer, leukemia, and other
diseases as a result of fallout from more than 1,000 atomic explosions on their territory.
Indigenous lands are legally distinct from the United

States
Ryser 99 (Rudolph C., Ph.D, Chair of the Board, Center for World
Indigenous Studies, A Special Report Prepared for The Inter-Tribal Study

Group on Tribal/State Relations, CWIS,
http://cwis.org/fwdp/Americas/collide1.txt)
Tribal governments exist as separate and distinct political
organisms which derive their powers from tribal communities . They
were not created by either the United
Statesgovernment or the state
government. The foundations of tribal government were established long before either the formation
DESPITE THE FACT THAT

TRIBAL LANDS ARE GEOGRAPHICALLY SURROUNDED BY THE
UNITED STATES AND VARIOUS STATES, TRIBALGOVERNMENTS
HAVE THE DISTINCTION OF BEING POLITICALLY SEPARATE FROM
THE FEDERAL SYSTEMWHICH JOINS THE STATES AND THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT
of the United States or the creation of the State of Washington.
TOGETHER.

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AND, violation the affirmative increases TI in and

towards Yucca Mountain, native land.
Voting Issue:
1. Groundthe aff needs to be limited to the 50 states
plus territories to allot us predictable groundthey take
away ground by not allowing federal policy, hurting
education.
2. Limitsthe explode limits by allowing transportation
infrastructure anywhere the US is slightly involved,
reducing competitive equity and fairness
3. Jurisdictiondont vote for a plan that isnt topical
thats a quintessential rule of debate.

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1NC
develop and implement launch capabilities and
technologies and launch all nuclear waste and spent fuel
into a stable orbit between the Earth and Venus. Well
clarify.
The counterplan solves.
Ramusat et al., June 1 2006, Nuclear Waste Disposal in Space: A Long
Term Solution, David Iranzo-Gerus and Olivier Gogdet of the Astrium
European Space Company, Guy Ramusat of the European Space Agency HQ,
Nikolai Slyunyayev at the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau of rocket infrastructure in
Ukraine; 7th International Symposium on Launcher Technology,
http://www.laka.org/docu/boeken/pdf/6-01-5-59-06.pdf, KTG
Space disposal could therefore become today a viable alternative. Even if the new world situation today
could make this possible, the idea was suggested several decades ago . Past studies
Reference [R5] in 1978 showed one of the first ideas. Their proposal was based on the following principles: Shuttle
the Shuttle would perform more

than 50 flights per year for a cost of a few tens of M$ per flight . Given
launch based on the development hypothesis, namely that
the launchers mass constraint only high activity long half-life non-reusable elements are concerned for economical (high
kilo-in-orbit price) and ecological reasons (several tens of tons of toxic propellants used by the Shuttle for one ton in Earth
HLW mass can be reduced by a factor of 40 after separation of

unused uranium and cladding (75 tons/year in 1997). The waste-to-container mass ratio must be
orbit).
maximized, while assuring radiation shielding, thermal control, reentry and impact protection. The ratio proposed was
15% in this study (this leads to a launch mass of 500 tons per year for the yearly production plus 10 000 tons for the
already stocked waste). The orbits retained for the disposal were: High Earth Orbit (55000 km, LEO+4000 4 7th
International Symposium on Launcher Technology Nuclear Waste Disposal in Space: A Long Term Solution m/s), Lunar
Soft Landing (LEO+6053 m/s), Solar Orbit (0,86 UA, LEO+4450 m/s) and Solar System Escape (LEO+8750 m/s). Another
The main
conclusions of this paper were the following: The huge amount of spent
fuel rods (77100 tons by 2020 for US civilian reactors) justifies the development of a
reliable and low recurring cost launching system (10 000 tons launched per year).
Ground launch systems are proposed as alternatives: laser and
microwave propulsion, electromagnetic rail-guns. These system offer
low payload masses but quick turn around times. The simplest orbit was
considered, namely solar system escape and was assured by a continuous thrust by laser. An alternative
orbit proposed was a solar orbit inside Venus which would guarantee
HLW retrieval by future generations if this was considered valuable.
paper was presented ([R4]) in 1999 proposing an alternative to the Shuttle launcher.
Venus orbit solves all case offense and is more

economically feasible.
The economic feasibility of nuclear waste disposal in space has been
studied with the first preliminary figures and hypothesis that are
available today. In the European Union (25-countries) 129,4 GW x year were produced by nuclear

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Two scenarios were considered: a

constant European nuclear power plant production and an increase of
4% per year in the next 50 years. This yearly increase corresponds to the increase of the
power plants in 2006 (35% of world capacity).
nuclear part in the overall electricity production, to the increase of the electricity part in the overall energy
consumption and to the increase in the electricity needs. A 1% per year increase was considered
afterwards, corresponding to only the increase of electricity needs. It was considered that the mass of
waste to launch per GW x year of electricity produced was 71.4 kg. In this numbers plutonium and
It was then assumed that the

waste was stored in swimming pools on the Earth for 20 to 30 years for cooling
before launch (heat flux reduction). The study was performed assuming
NWD into a solar orbit at 0,85 AU which was considered as the best
option in past studies: long term stable orbit between Earth and
Venus, reversible storage, safe location with respect to terrorist
acts, short transfer duration (less than six months), 6 7th International Symposium on
Launcher Technology Nuclear Waste Disposal in Space: A Long Term Solution intermediate
DeltaV need (with respect to other solutions), no celestial body contamination.
reusable uranium components were not considered as waste.

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2NC Solvency
The counterplan is an amazingly innovative solutionit
drives down launch costs and solves in the long term.

Launch of Nuclear Waste into Space is a very interesting solution for
the space industry (driving force to reduce launch costs and promote
new space applications) and a very good long-term solution for
nuclear energy. With the current energy demands and the forecast
for the coming years, only nuclear fission energy (and coal) appear as
possible solutions in the short to midterm. Even if massive
investment is put into alternative energy solutions (like nuclear fusion and
renewable energies), the problem of nuclear waste disposal will remain for
the existing stock and for the near term production. Diposal of this waste in
space would require the development of a fail-proof container able to withstand any possible mission
failure, merging the technologies currently used by the space and the nuclear industries. Preliminary
analysis shows that this could be a very attractive long term solution
from a safety point of view and with an accessible cost . Further studies in
cooperation between the space and nuclear sectors will be required in the coming years to analyze in
detail this solution and its advantages with respect to ground storage.

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WIPP CP
develop and expand the permanent Waste Isolation Power
Planet repository.
Solves and avoids the link to politics-it would be
politically insulated and unlike Yucca, wouldnt be
plagued by lack of constituency support.
Center for Environment, Commerce & Energy, May 28, 2012,
WIPP Can Supplement Or Replace Yucca Mountain The Center, founded in
1985, is an environmental organization dedicated to protecting the
environment, enhancing human, animal and plant ecologies, promoting the
efficient use of natural resources and expanding participation in the
environmental movement; Norris McDonald.
Since opening in 1999, WIPP has operated so smoothly and safely that
Carlsbad is lobbying the feds to expand the project to take the
nuclear mother lode: 160,000 more tons of the worst high-level
nuclear waste in the countrythings like the half-melted reactor core of Three Mile Island
and old nuclear fuel rodsthat are residing at aging nuke plants. Though
taxpayers have already spent some $12 billion mining out and
engineering Yucca Mountain, 90 miles from Las Vegas, power brokers in
Nevada fought the congressionally approved project from the getgo. Bowing to Nimbyand Nevadas powerful Senator Harry Reid
two years ago President Barack Obamas Administration declared
Yucca DOA. Contractors have since laid off some 1,000 workers there. On Mar. 26, 1999 the
townsfolk of Carlsbad gathered to cheer the first truck to deliver waste to WIPP. New Mexico, in
agreeing to WIPP, required that Congress enshrine in law a promise
that the feds would not send high-level waste into the state. WIPP
wont be the next Yucca unless that issue is wrangled, and reversed ,
by Albuquerque and Washington, DC. Carlsbad has perfect geology for the waste because it sits atop the
biggest salt deposit in America, stretching from New Mexico clear to Kansas. The 3,000-foot salt layer is
the thickest in the country, is nearly impervious to seismic activity, quickly heals any cracks or faults and
remains completely impermeable, with no way for any water to get in or for any radiation to escape. The
waste drums final resting place is down an elevator 2,150 feet into the salt. WIPPs tunnels and rooms
have 15-foot ceilings, enough to stack drums three high. So far its swallowed 10,200 shipments totaling
200,000 tons impregnated with 5 tons of plutonium. To get that stuff to WIPP drivers have logged 12
million miles with loaded trucks and 10 million miles empty.

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2NC Avoids Politics- BRC Support

The Blue Ribbon Commission likes the COUNTER-plan.
Christopher Helman, February 13 2012, Nuke us! Forbes Magazine,
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2012/0213/feature-energy-carlsbad-newmexico-nuke-us.html, KTG
Yet thanks to politics even more radioactive than the material itself, it
hasnt happened yet and might not happen anytime soon. Though
taxpayers have already spent some $12 billion mining out and engineering Yucca Mountain, 90 miles from
Las Vegas, power brokers in Nevada fought the congressionally approved project from the get-go. Bowing
to Nimbyand Nevadas powerful Senator Harry Reidtwo years ago President Barack Obamas
To seek
some common ground Obama then set up the Blue Ribbon
Commission on Americas Nuclear Future. The BRC, as its known, is
tasked with looking at all the options. It likes WIPPa lot. According
to its draft report last summer the BRC will insist that a consentbased approach be applied to any future site selection. WIPP, it
wrote, is a model of how that can be done.
Administration declared Yucca DOA. Contractors have since laid off some 1,000 workers there.
BRC support solves the link to politics.

Susan Eisenhower, April 11 2013, BLUE RIBBON COMMISSION ON
AMERICAS NUCLEAR FUTURE Former BRC Member,

http://appropriations.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hhrg-113-ap10-wstateeisenhowers-20130411.pdf, KTG
As you know, the Blue Ribbon Commission on which I served was formed by the Secretary
of Energy at the direction of the President. Our charge was to conduct a comprehensive
review of policies for managing the back end of the nuclear fuel
cycle and to recommend a new strategy. We delivered our final report to the
Secretary in January of last year, and made eight key recommendations in that report, which
articulated:1. A new, consent-based approach to siting future

nuclear waste management facilities. Experience in the United States and in other
nations suggests that any attempt to force a top- down, federally mandated solution over the objections of
a state or communityfar from being more efficientwill take longer, cost more, and have lower odds of
ultimate success. By contrast, the approach we recommend is explicitly adaptive, staged, and consent-
Based on a review of successful siting processes in the United

States and abroadincluding most notably the siting of a disposal
facility for transuranic radioactive waste, the Waste Isolation Pilot
Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico, and recent positive outcomes in Spain, Finland and Swedenwe believe
based.
this type of approach can provide the flexibility and sustain the public trust and confidence needed to see
2. A new organization dedicated solely

to implementing the waste management program and empowered
with the authority and resources to succeed. The overall record of
DOE and of the federal government as a whole has not inspired
confidence or trust in our nations nuclear waste management
program. For this and other reasons, the Commission concluded that
new institutional leadership is needed. Specifically, we
recommended a single-purpose, Congressionally-chartered federal
corporation, although there may be other organizational structures
that could work. We believe a Fed Corp is best suited to provide the stability, focus, and credibility
needed to get the waste program back on track. For the new organization to succeed,
a substantial degree of implementing authority and assured access
controversial facilities through to completion.

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to funds must be paired with rigorous financial, technical, and

regulatory oversight by Congress and the appropriate government
agencies.

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1NC
The plan is environmentally unjust towards the Western
Shoshone and local nativesYucca has cultural and
traditional value to the Native Americans which the
federal govt. infringes on.
Grace Thorpe, 1997, Environmental Justice Case Study: The Yucca
Mountain High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository and the Western Shoshone,
former prof. at UMich,
http://www.umich.edu/~snre492/kendziuk.html#Problem, KTG
Over the last forty years, many Native American communities have been constantly exposed to low-level
Since more than half of all United

States uranium deposits lie under indigenous lands, uranium mining,
milling, conversion, and enrichment have become common activities,
especially on Western Shoshone Land. In 1978, the American Indian
Religious Freedom Act (AIRFA) was passed. This Act reaffirmed the right of
Native Americans to free access to religious lands and natural
resources, even when these lands and resources extend beyond
present tribal boundaries. In 1982, Congress passed the Nuclear Waste
Policy Act. This Act proposed to safely dispose of nuclear wastes,
bearing in mind the environmental and cultural impacts on Native
American communities. Of three sites investigated for this use, DOE
has given Yucca Mountain the greatest consideration. Part of the
conflict rests in whether DOE's actions at Yucca Mountain impinge on
the right of Native Americans to gain access to sacred natural
resources. According to the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation (ACOHP), formed by the
National Historic Preservation Act, these resources can be defined as any
property that has traditional value to the tribe in question. That property
need not have been consistent use since antiquity. It has been confirmed by the
Western Shoshone and other tribes that Yucca Mountain has
traditional value, despite spatial separation from it use due to
invasion by private individuals and the federal government (Stoffle et al,
1990). In addition to the potential threat of power plant wastes, these
communities are also being exposed to radiation from the Nevada Test Site
(NTS), also located on traditional Shoshone land. The NTS has been used by the U.S.
doses of radiation from a variety of different sources.
and Britain to test nuclear weapons for many years. The Western Shoshone National Council considers
these tests to be more like bombs, because of the destruction that results from these experiments. Since
1951, approximately 1,350 square miles of their 43,000 square mile territory have been destroyed by
hundreds of craters and tunnels that are no more than unsupervised nuclear waste dumps. There have
been environmental monitoring reports issued throughout the years concerning the status of NTS, dated all
the way from the 1950's to 1991. These reports prove the presence of substantial low-level radioactive
releases of iodine, strontium, cesium, plutonium, and noble gases in outlying areas, with higher
Residents have
reported unusual animal deaths, human hair loss, the soil in the area
turning a dark black color, along with increases of cancer and birth
defects.
concentrations found in reservation communities in close proximity to NTS.

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This exacerbates notions of imperialism and US crusades

on native lands for world supremacy.
Grace Thorpe, 1997, Environmental Justice Case Study: The Yucca
Mountain High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository and the Western Shoshone,
former prof. at UMich,
http://www.umich.edu/~snre492/kendziuk.html#Problem, KTG
As a result of the lack of environmental health concern on the part
of the federal government, WSNC decided to take action and formed the Western Shoshone Health
Project in 1994. The goals of the project are to collect data on the effects of
nuclear fall out from sites like NTS, as well as providing information on the quality of the land, soil, water,
plants, and health of the people in the territory. They are a part of the Native American Health Network which includes
organizations such as the Childhood Cancer Research Institute, and Native Americans for a Clean Environment. The goal
of the project is to try to correct the imbalance of risk by taking proactive steps to encourage a better understanding of
radiation and its effect on health issues among members of Native American communities. A large part of the program is
the "Training of the Trainers Program", where they acquire an understanding of critical social and technical aspects of
radiation issues, by integrating technical skills with educational training. A unique partnership is forged among outside
researchers, health care providers, and native communities by combining indigenous ways of thinking with technical
skills. Next, the trainers take the technical skills they have acquired from the program and develop educational modules
for tribal members. Health scientists from the Center for Technology, Environment and Development (CENTED), at Clark
University, in Worcester MA, are working closely with the Shoshone community to create an understanding of local
knowledge and experiences. Another main tactic has involved using the courts to prevent the construction of the site.
Right now, the case is in the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (D'errico, 1996). The Shoshone have decided to
represent themselves instead of a lawyer. Chief Raymond D. Yowell is the representative for the Western Shoshone.
The problem for the Western Shoshone is that the United States see
the land as under their control under plenary federal power. The
Western Shoshone argue that the basis of this plenary federal power
is rooted in the colonial arrogance of the 17th century, and the laws
that gave the United States Government control over the Native
Americans are "extensions of Christian claims to world supremacy."
This relationship with the indigenous positions ourselves

against them loss of cultural diversity directly
corresponds to loss of biodiversity only retrieval of this
knowledge can address the ongoing conquest of nature
Friedburg 00 (Lilian, author, activist, Masters in Humanities from
University of Chicago, Dare to Compare: AmeriCanizing the Holocaust,
American Indian Quarterly 24.3 Summer 00, PJ Muse)
Collective indifference to these conditions on the part of both white and black America is a poor reflection
on the nations character. This collective refusal to acknowledge the genocide further exacerbates the
aftermath in Native communities and hinders the recovery process. This, too, sets the American situation
apart from the German-Jewish situation: Holocaust denial is seen by most of the world as an affront to the
victims seeking recovery

are seen as assaulting American ideals. But what is at stake today, at the
dawn of a new millennium, is not the culture, tradition, and survival of one
population on one continent oneitherside of the Atlantic. What is at stake is
the very future of the human species. LaDuke, in her most recent work, contextualizes the
issues from a contemporary perspective: Our experience of survival and resistance is
shared with many others. But it is not only about Native people. . . . In the
final analysis, the survival of Native America is fundamentally about the
collective survival of all human beings. The question of who gets to
determine the destiny of the land, and of the people who live on itthose
with the money or those who pray on the landis a question that is alive
throughout society.57 There is, as LaDuke reminds us, a direct relationship
between the loss of cultural diversity and the loss of biodiversity. Wherever
Indigenous peoples still remain, there is also a corresponding enclave of
victims of the Nazi regime. In America, the situation is the reverse:

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biodiversity.58But, she continues, The last 150 years have seen a great holocaust. There have
been more species lost in the past 150 years than since the Ice Age. (During
the same time, Indigenous peoples have been disappearing from the face of
the earth. Over 2,000 nations of Indigenous peoples have gone extinct in the
western hemisphere and one nation disappears from the Amazon rainforest
every year.)59 It is not about us as indigenous peoplesit is about us as a human species. We
are all related. At issue is no longer the Jewish question or the Indian problem. We must speak
today in terms of the human problem. And it is this problem for which not a final,
but a sustainable, viable solution must be found because it is no longer a matter of
serial genocide, it has become one of collective suicide. As Terrence Des Pres put it, in The
Survivor: At the heart of our problems is that nihilism which was all along the
destiny of Western culture: a nihilism either unacknowledged even as the
bombs fell or else, as with Hitler or Stalin, demonically proclaimed as the
new salvation.60 All of us must now begin thinking and acting in the
dimension and in the interest of the human speciesan intellectual domain
of vita activa that indigenous people have inhabited since time immemorial.
It is this modality of thought as a process of reflection that the civilized
nations must learn from the savage ones. Vine Deloria, in Native American
Spirituality, has attempted to clarify this distinction: American Indians look backwards in time to the
creation of the world and view reality from the perspective of the one species that has the capability to
reflect on the meaning of things. This attitude is generally misunderstood by non-Indians who act as if
reflection and logical thought were synonymous. But reflection is a special art and requires maturity of
personality, certainty of identity, and feelings of equality with the other life forms of the world. It consists,
more precisely, of allowing wisdom to approach rather than seeking answers to self-generated questions.
Such an attitude, then, stands in a polarized position to the manner in which society today conducts
itself.61 It is not a matter of moral bookkeeping or of winners and losers in the battle of the most
martyred minority. It is not a matter of comparative victimology, but one of collective survival. The
insistence on incomparability and uniqueness of the Nazi Holocaust is precisely what prohibits our
collective compre- hension of genocide as a phenomenon of Western civilization, not as a re- iterative
series of historical events, each in its own way unique. It is what inhibits our ability to name causes,
anticipate outcomes, and, above all to engage in preemptive political and intellectual action in the face
of contemporary exigencies.
This genocide against the natives precedes all other

impacts prioritize their survival
Harff and Gur 81 (Harff and Gur, Northwestern, HUMANITARIAN
INTERVENTION AS A REMEDY FOR GENOCIDE, 1981, p. 40)
One of the most enduring and abhorrent problems of the world is genocide, which is neither particular to a specific
Prohibition of genocide
and affirmation of its opposite,the value of life, are an eternal ethical verity, one whose
practical implications necessarily outweigh possible theoretical objections and as such
should lift it above prevailing ideologies or politics. Genocide concerns and potentially
effects all people. People make up a legal system, according to Kelsen. Politics is the expression of conflict
race, class, or nation, nor is it rooted in any one, ethnocentric view of the world.
among competing groups. Those in power give the political system its character, i.e. the state. The state, according
to Kelsen, is nothing but the combined will of all its people. This abstract concept of the state may at first glance
appear meaningless, because in reality not all people have an equal voice in the formation of the characteristics of
But I am not concerned with the characteristics of the state but rather the
essence of the state the people. Without a people there would be no state or legal
system. With genocide eventually there will be no people. Genocide is ultimately a
threat to the existence of all. True, sometimes only certain groups are targeted, as in Nazi Germany.
the state.
Sometimes a large part of the total population is eradicated, as in contemporary Cambodia. Sometimes people are
eliminated regardless of national origin the Christians in Roman times. Sometimes whole nations vanish the
Amerindian societies after the Spanish conquest. And sometimes religious groups are persecuted the
Mohammedans by the Crusaders. The culprit changes: sometimes it is a specific state, or those in power in a state;
occasionally it is the winners vs. the vanquished in international conflicts; and in its crudest form the stronger
Since virtually every social group is a potential victim, genocide is a

universal concern.
against the weaker.

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2NC Links
The federal government has no right to infringe on the
Western Shoshone and Paulte tribestransportation is
the BIGGEST CAUSE.
KTG
Yucca Mountain, in the heart of the Western Shoshone Nation, is a
place of deep spiritual significance to Shoshone and Pauite peoples.
Despite this, the federal government plans to send there 98 percent
of the radioactivity generated during the entire Nuclear Age . The Department of
Energy (DOE) has already spent 5 billion dollars towards the project and wants to spend 50 billion more to complete it before the end of the decade. The
government has no right to use Yucca Mountain this way. Newe
Sogobia the land guaranteed the Western Shoshone Nation by
treaty includes Yucca Mountain. Even the mere study of the site is
a violation of the treaty. The Shoshone people have made their
wishes clear: they want the DOE off their land and their mountain
restored to them. Because of U.S. nuclear testing in Nevada, the
Western Shoshone Nation is already the most bombed nation on
earth. They suffer from widespread cancer, leukemia, and other
diseases as a result of fallout from more than 1,000 atomic
explosions on their territory. More than 100 grassroots environmental groups, Native and non- Native, organized to gain
broad participation in the Yucca Mountain Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process. But the vast majority of people
who might be affected by this decision still are not aware of the
danger. The Yucca Mountain EIS largely sidesteps the issue of
transport.
Works the other wayeven if the plan fails, it instills a

chance of resurgence for the nuclear industry, which is
just as bad. Yucca is one example of the federal
governments exploitation of native lands across the
country for years.
KTG
As the federal EIS process grinds on, the industry is doing all they
can to expedite and insure Yucca's opening. Each year for the past six years,
legislation has quietly appeared in Congress in a backroom effort by
the industry to change current law and seal a Yucca deal. This year's
proposed changes to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act pretty much
"threw radiation standards out," according to Michael Marriotte of the Nuclear Information
Resource Service (NIRS) in Washington, D.C., going so far as to strip the EPA of authority for setting
standards. All this, says NIRS, is to "make the Yucca shoe fit" and insure the production of more nuclear
waste. On April 25, 2000, President Clinton did the right thing and vetoed the Nuclear Waste Policy
Amendments Act as he promised. A Senate vote to override the veto on May 2 nd failed by a narrow
margin. So, for one more year, the Western Shoshone, Yucca Mountain, and fifty million Americans are safe

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from the nuclear industry. But what about next year? Join the call for "No Nuclear Waste on Native Lands".
Every
single proposal to store high level nuclear waste in North America
targets Native territories. Not only do these proposals represent
immense environmental injustices toward Native peoples, but the
dumps, if authorized, will enable a dying nuclear industry to get
some last breaths. Nuclear waste is the Achilles heel of the industry.
Contact the organizations below to take action. Nuclear Politics and Environmental Injustice
Reactors are filling up with spent radioactive fuel and there is no safe place to put this deadly waste.
The industry
sees this as a political problem, not an environmental one. Targeting
isolated and economically disenfranchised Indians is their one
solution. Help us close this loophole. Join the movement to stop
nuclear waste on Native lands and create the impetus for our society
to move towards wind, solar and other renewable resources.
Utilities will have to close down their plants if they cannot get a waste site authorized.
View their evidence with skepticismits ignorant and

federal propaganda. Land ownership exists under the
Shoshones but the government denies that.
Native American Net Roots, November 22, 2010, A Western
Shoshone Perspective on Yucca Mountain

http://www.nativeamericannetroots.net/diary/779/, KTG
Other arguments used to justify the occupation of Western Shoshone
country is a propaganda claim that Native Americans do not have a
concept of land ownership. The Western Shoshone people are a
distinct people and, unlike the US, possess a national ethnic identity.
Western Shoshone nationals do have a system of property
ownership in privity with all other Western Shoshone people. The
people of the Western Shoshone Nation did not survey their
boundaries though property rights and interests were known among
mutual or successive Western Shoshone land users. Boundary points
were known, marked and enforced by Western Shoshone chiefs
throughout the region. The Nevada Surveyor General authorized under the 1861 Nevada Organizing Act
identified the exterior boundaries of the State of Nevada and left the rest to the imagination. Most of the Great Basin was
Most of the land that

makes up the Western Shoshone Nation was not in fact legally
acquired. Incomplete land surveys and deficient maps show errors favoring the US and justify the abuse and
oppression of the Western Shoshone Nation. More than 100 years passed without any
rectification of the legal doctrine of discovery or any effort by the US
to correct the errors in US surveys and deficient maps. Western
Shoshone nationals continue to abide by the terms of the Treaty of
Ruby Valley while being persecuted on their own property for
activities "as hunters or herdsmen" contemplated by the treaty.
Still, more abuse of the Western Shoshone people and land are the
result of negligence by the US in the development and testing of weapons of mass destruction. In
consumed by American imagination with boundaries constructed of the mind.
the 1950's the US occupied a vast expanse of Western Shoshone lands that now comprise the Nevada Test Site 65 miles
northwest of Las Vegas for use as America's nuclear proving ground. During the period of nuclear weapons testing from
1951-1994, the US detonated 904 full-scale nuclear weapons tests, 24 in collaboration with the United Kingdom. The
Western Shoshone Nation with the help of American supporters engaged in active protest against nuclear weapons testing
and the MX inter-continental ballistic missile system planned for the Great Basin. The MX missile system was cancelled
and full-scale nuclear weapons testing ended at the Nevada Test Site. In 1994 the Western Shoshone National Council,
traditional government of the Western Shoshone Nation, began questioning the incidents of cancer and other health
consequences experienced by the Western Shoshone people known to be plausible from exposure to radiation in fallout
from nuclear weapons testing. Reaching out to Southern Paiute neighbors they formed the Nuclear Risk Management for
Native Communities Project to understand what happened to them and educate their communities on culturally
appropriate protective behavior. Collaborating with researchers from Marsh Institute at Clarke University, funded by the

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Center for Disease Control and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the Nuclear Risk Management for
Native Communities project reviewed the Department of Energy, Off-site Radiation Exposure Review Program. What they
found was that the Department of Energy study used a shepherd lifestyle to model Native Americans, but that the
shepherd lifestyle did not accurately replicate the Western Shoshone or Southern Paiute people's lifestyle. Based upon
lifestyle differences alone the Nuclear Risk Management for Native Communities project found that Western Shoshone and
Southern Paiute people were exposed to radiation through unique exposure pathways that included diet, shelter and
mobility. Radiation exposure risk for adults are as much as 15 times greater than non-Native American communities
downwind, as much as 30 times greater risk for children, and as much as 60 time greater risk for inutero exposure.
Politically weak, socially and economically isolated the Western

Shoshone people are vulnerable to exploitation. For the Western
Shoshone Nation the stakes are mortal. The abuse continues as the
Western Shoshone Nation is targeted for the disposal of nuclear
waste from 115 nuclear reactors at 75 sites in 30 states. From the
Western Shoshone perspective, nuclear waste streams from the
reactor communities would become a river as they enter the
Western Shoshone country, placing a disproportionate burden of risk
upon the land and people of the Western Shoshone Nation.
Culture is uniquely important to the existence of the

Shoshonesthe tradition surrounds Yucca.
Native American Net Roots, November 22, 2010, A Western
Shoshone Perspective on Yucca Mountain
http://www.nativeamericannetroots.net/diary/779/, KTG
To the Western Shoshone people Yucca Mountain is part of a
seamless scared landscape known in the Shoshone language as,
Newe Sogobia. Newe is what the Western Shoshone call themselves
meaning, the people. Sogobia is the name of Mother Earth . Used together,
Newe Sogobia is the political, social, cultural and spiritual embodiment of Western Shoshone people and land as a nation.
The Western Shoshone people share a

common ethnic identity that accounts for their continued struggle
for political, social, economic and environmental justice against the
threats, hazards and risks the US forces upon Newe Sogobia. To the
Western Shoshone people, culture is the most important aspect for
measuring the strength of a nation. Cultural identity is obtained
from living in a place that provides a sense of identity binding the
Western Shoshone people to the land. The Western Shoshone Nation is being destroyed
through US development of Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste repository. The Western Shoshone
people view the world holistically, considering the political, social,
cultural, economic impact and moral wisdom of storing nuclear
waste at Yucca Mountain. Unable to answer questions about safety within the context that Western
There is no separation of church and state.
Shoshone were asking them, the Department of Energy only considered Western Shoshone society through the narrow
view of cultural resources studies. The process used by the Department of Energy, "cultural triage" that is defined as, "the
forced choice situation in which an ethnic group is faced with the decision to rank in importance equally valued cultural
resources that could be affected by a proposed development project." So, the Department of Energy researchers reframed
the question in a form science could answer, "Is this burial, plant or animal safe from a road, tunnel or building needed for
a repository at Yucca Mountain?" The answer was returned as the answer to the original question being asked by the
Western Shoshone people. The Western Shoshone National Council view the use of "cultural triage" and every proximate
act, in furtherance of, and as a means to dismantle a living culture for the benefit and profit of the nuclear industry, a
violation of International Humanitarian Law, and a crime under the UN Convention on Prevention and Punishment of the
Crime of Genocide and the US enactments, the Proxmire Act.

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Potential K Alternative
(If you want to run this is as a Enviro-J K)
Works the other wayeven if the plan fails, it instills a
chance of resurgence for the nuclear industry, which is
just as bad. Yucca is one example of the federal
governments exploitation of native lands across the
country for years. Vote negative to return the land to the
Western Shoshone and reinstate sovereignty.
KTG
As the federal EIS process grinds on, the industry is doing all they
can to expedite and insure Yucca's opening. Each year for the past six years,
legislation has quietly appeared in Congress in a backroom effort by
the industry to change current law and seal a Yucca deal. This year's
proposed changes to the Nuclear Waste Policy Act pretty much
"threw radiation standards out," according to Michael Marriotte of the Nuclear Information
Resource Service (NIRS) in Washington, D.C., going so far as to strip the EPA of authority for setting
standards. All this, says NIRS, is to "make the Yucca shoe fit" and insure the production of more nuclear
waste. On April 25, 2000, President Clinton did the right thing and vetoed the Nuclear Waste Policy
Amendments Act as he promised. A Senate vote to override the veto on May 2 nd failed by a narrow
margin. So, for one more year, the Western Shoshone, Yucca Mountain, and fifty million Americans are safe
from the nuclear industry. But what about next year? Join the call for "No Nuclear Waste on Native Lands".
Every
single proposal to store high level nuclear waste in North America
targets Native territories. Not only do these proposals represent
immense environmental injustices toward Native peoples, but the
dumps, if authorized, will enable a dying nuclear industry to get
some last breaths. Nuclear waste is the Achilles heel of the industry.
Contact the organizations below to take action. Nuclear Politics and Environmental Injustice
Reactors are filling up with spent radioactive fuel and there is no safe place to put this deadly waste.
The industry
sees this as a political problem, not an environmental one. Targeting
isolated and economically disenfranchised Indians is their one
solution. Help us close this loophole. Join the movement to stop
nuclear waste on Native lands and create the impetus for our society
to move towards wind, solar and other renewable resources.
Utilities will have to close down their plants if they cannot get a waste site authorized.

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Solvency

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1NC
Yucca repository will fail
a) Yucca is not scientifically sound and safe.
Lisa Ledwidge, updated 2013, If not Yucca Mountain, then what? An
Alternative Plan for Managing Highly Radioactive Waste in the United States,
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research; Ledwidge is Outreach
Director at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, earned a BS
in Biology from Eastern Michigan University and two Masters degrees
(Environmental Science and Public Affairs) from Indiana University;
http://ieer.org/resource/commentary/yucca-mountain/, KTG
Argument: Yucca Mountain is a scientifically sound site in which to dispose of
spent nuclear fuel. Thats why it was chosen.
Counter: Yucca Mountain is not a scientifically sound solution for the
disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The decision to site Yucca Mountain as a waste repository
was based on politics, not science. It is common sense, and sound science, to site and
build a nuclear waste repository to isolate radioactive waste as
completely as possible from the human environment for the hazardous
lifetime of the waste. But even some of the U.S. governments own assessments
indicate that Yucca Mountain is not capable of isolating radioactive
waste from the environment for this long. [1] The geology of Yucca Mountain,
volcanic tuff, is not expected to provide an adequate barrier in the
long term. Also, serious questions have been raised about the integrity of
the canisters that would hold the spent fuel. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
assessments assume that the engineered barriers, notably the metal canisters, will provide adequate
these canisters are made of an alloy that has been in

existence for only about two decades and studied very briefly. Like all
metals in an oxidizing environment, the canisters could corrode under certain
conditions of moisture and temperature. DOEs models of canister performance are
based on relatively scant data and contain large uncertainties. Yucca Mountain is in the
desert, but there is evidence that water has welled up into the
region in the geologic past according to a study published in 1999 by an independent technical group.
[2] This issue is an important one because water is expected to be the main
pathway by which radioactive materials from repository spent fuel
would reach the human environment. The issue of how long ago the water may have
containment. Yet
risen to the repository level is still a matter of scientific controversy. Water is also a principal means by
which the containment of the wastes may become compromised. Yet the DOEs plans assume the
underground area will remain relatively dry for hundreds of centuries.
b) the plan puts the cart before the horseavoiding long

term solutions causes transportation issues,
reprocessing, pollutionturns case

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Moving spent fuel to an interim spot (for instance a monitored retrievable storage facility
proposed for the Skull Valley Goshute land in Utah) before any long-term management
solution is decided upon carries a host of new risks arising from:
transportation of the wastes; the possible need to transport wastes
again; temptations to reprocess the spent fuel, causing more
pollution and proliferation risks; safety problems associated with
loading, unloading and reloading canisters; and hasty decisions regarding canisters that
should be far more carefully made. These risks are both unnecessary and are qualitatively more
serious than storage of spent fuel at reactor sites, which have , after all,
been licensed for operation of reactors that generally carry far
greater safety risks than spent fuel storage.
c) DOE is inefficient and uncoordinated with Yucca and

with federal fundsmany alt causes.
GAO, April 2011, COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR WASTE: Effects of a Termination
of the Yucca Mountain Repository Program and Lessons Learned Government
Accountability Office http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11229.pdf, KTG
After decades of effort and nearly $15 billion in spending, DOE succeeded in
submitting a license application for a nuclear waste repository .
However, since then, DOE has dismantled its repository effort at Yucca
Mountain and has taken steps that make the shutdown difficult to
reverse. DOE focused on a rapid dismantlement because the administration ended funding on
September 30, 2010. Amid uncertainty over whether it had the authority to
terminate the Yucca Mountain repository program, DOE terminated
the program without formally assessing the risks stemming from the
shutdown, including the possibility that it might have to resume the repository effort. Without a
formal risk assessment, DOE cannot be assured that it is aware of any risks it is still facing from the
shutdown, such as from missed opportunities to preserve institutional knowledge that may be needed in
future efforts. Furthermore, as more time passes without a plan for resuming the licensing process at Yucca
DOE may find it increasingly difficult to resume the process if

it reconsiders its decision or is compelled to do so. For example, DOE may
find it increasingly hard to gather staff with previous experience at
Yucca Mountain, since over time more will retire, relocate, or change
careers. Without an adequate closeout plan that included a risk
assessment, DOE has left itself vulnerable to losses in both
experienced staff and physical property. When DOE eliminated
experienced staff, it did not tap them for lessons learned that could
be helpful for future efforts. Furthermore, DOE did not complete an
inventory of OCRWM property before it closed out the Yucca Mountain site
and does not know if equipment was stolen, even though some of its storage sites
Mountain,
were breached. Nor did DOE demonstrate that it fully documented the return of any proceeds from sales of
Until these issues are resolved, DOE remains

vulnerable to losses and may not be able to ensure it has
appropriately managed federal property and funds.
OCRWM to the Nuclear Waste Fund.

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d) Litigation, lawsuits, and interagency failures prevent

solvencyNOTHING can happen until lawsuits are
resolved..
Mike Ahlers, October 17, 2011, Repurposing Yucca Mountain won't be
easy http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/17/us/yucca-mountain, KTG
Some of the proposals will hearten advocates of the old nuclear
repository plan while infuriating its opponents. Fully 10 suggestions involve
nuclear storage, research or generation. Suggestions include making Yucca an
"interim" storage site for nuclear waste (as opposed to a permanent storage site), a
nuclear waste reprocessing plant, a research reactor site, a nuclear power plant or an air-cooled
underground nuclear reactor. Other suggestions include making Yucca: -- A commercial energy park for
nuclear, solar and wind power generation. -- A command center for unmanned aerial vehicles. -- A
training site for first responders. -- A secure data storage site. -- A strategic petroleum reserve for the
western part of the country. -- A facility for research on highly infectious diseases. -- A university to teach
proposals or rank them. Nor was

the GAO did
catalog the numerous "challenges" facing any potential user. Chief
among them, said report author Frank Rusco, is a lawsuit seeking to reverse the
administration's decision to kill the nuclear repository project.
Nothing is likely to happen until that lawsuit is resolved , said Rusco, who is
with the GAO's natural resources and environment team. In its investigation, the GAO also
discovered another potential obstacle that apparently had escaped
the attention of government regulators. After the Obama
administration killed the waste dump plan, individuals or
corporations filed 35 mining claims for the property, some of them
directly over the Yucca Mountain tunnels. The GAO brought those
claims to the attention of the Bureau of Land Management, which
has since voided them, Rusco said. But litigation is possible, he added.
Another impediment is that the land falls under the control of three federal
agencies: the Bureau of Land Management, the Department of
Energy and the Department of Defense. And potential users may be
limited by national security activities on adjacent lands. Rusco said that
mining techniques.
The GAO did not endorse
the
there broad consensus among the experts on how Yucca could best be used. But
several experts consulted by the GAO noted there is land elsewhere that would also fulfill their needs, and
that they would rather build a project "from scratch" than retrofit an existing tunnel.
e) And the plan literally cant get inside Yucca Mountain

it was sealed and all utilities were shut off.
Mike Ahlers, October 17, 2011, Repurposing Yucca Mountain won't be
easy http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/17/us/yucca-mountain, KTG

Currently, the mountain contains the 5-mile tunne l, with two entrances on the east
side of the mountain. A 2-mile tunnel branches off of the main tunnel. Any agency with an
interest in Yucca will find one other obstacle: getting into the
facility. When the government shut down the site, it closed access
and shut down utilities and a system used to ventilate radon gas. GAO
investigators decided to forgo a visit to the mountain after learning that reopening the tunnel
for a day would cost $20,000 to $50,000.

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2NC Extensions
Extend 1NC #1Ledwidge states that Yucca repository is
not scientifically possiblethe geology of the mountain is
not a good enough barrier, the spent fuel canisters are
untested and will corrode, and the desert underground
water pools will transport the waste to human settlement
government reports prove this.
Extend 1NC #2Ledwidge states that the Yucca
repository program puts the cart efore the horse,
avoiding long term solutions to the problem of nuclear
waste storage, which would result in hasty decisions with
transportation and result in reprocessing and more
pollution and accidentsturns case. The status quo of onsite storage is comparatively better.
Extend 1NC #3a GAO report indicated that Yucca will
never work out because the Department of Energy made
several vital mistakes when closing Yucca a few years
they didnt create any backup plans, they didnt take an
inventory of materials, and all of the staff left meaning
theres no credibility for the program.
Extend 1NC #4lawsuits and litigation prevent solvency.
First, theres a lawsuit on the closure that literally
prevents ANY federal action from taking place until it is
resolved. Fiat cant resolve this. Secondly, corporations
would use litigation to delay action. Finally, theres zero
interagency cooperation resulting in bad policy.
Extend 1NC #5the government literally shut Yucca down
and sealed the door to prevent leaking gas. All utilities
were shut off as well. This is a major alt cause to any case
access. Transportation systems cant even get into the
mountain let alone use it as a repository.

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2NC Solvency
Heres a framing issuethe Yucca proposal is all politics
and no scienceview their evidence with skepticism.
History illustrates that Yucca was chosen based on politics, not science. In
1982, Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, a law which designated
deep geologic disposal as the preferred technical solution for nuclear waste disposal, essentially
curtailing or terminating serious research and development on other
methods like deep borehole or sub-seabed disposal. The law
stipulated that explicit site selection and environmental criteria be
adopted, and that a final site be selected from among numerous sites examined on the basis of
detailed characterization studies. However, the Dept. of Energys problem-ridden
site selection process, flaws in law and in federal regulations, and
vigorous citizen opposition led to a more politically convenient
solution. Congress amended the Nuclear Waste Policy Act in 1987,
overriding many of the original site selection and characterization
provisions. Congress voted to eliminate other contenders and concentrate on
Yucca Mountain as the sole site to be examined as a candidate for the first high-level waste repository,
even before scientific studies were completed. Thus the final selection of Yucca
Mountain came about as a result of a process in which politics overwhelmed science. [3]
Plan fails
a) No DOE licensingmakes the research and program
impossible.
GAO, April 2011, COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR WASTE: Effects of a Termination
of the Yucca Mountain Repository Program and Lessons Learned Government

Accountability Office http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11229.pdf, KTG
NRC officials stated that no new technical or safety issues related to the Yucca Mountain repository had
been reported to them since DOE submitted its license application in 2008. In its June 29, 2010, ruling on
DOEs motion to withdraw its license application, NRCs Atomic Safety and Licensing Board stated that the
NWPA provided the Secretary of Energy with an opportunity to report any reasons that the Yucca Mountain
site was not suitable prior to submitting its license application, but DOE reported no such issues. According
the NWPA required DOE to submit a license application and

NRC to rule on its merits by approving or disapproving the issuance
of a construction authorization, the first
authorizationrequiredinthelicenseapplicationprocess.17 Many DOE and NRC officials, scientists,
and industry representatives we spoke with told us that completing
the license review process and obtaining NRC findings on the
technical merits of the license application would provide valuable
information that could be applied to future efforts, even if Yucca Mountain was not pursued as a
to the board,
repository. Additionally, the board stated that, even if approved, such approval did not ensure that a
repository would be built or become operational for any number of reasons, including separate

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As
of February 2011, the status of the Yucca Mountain license application
and associated review process is uncertain. On June 30, 2010, the day after the
congressional action changing the law or a decision by Congress not to fund the proposed repository.
Atomic Safety and Licensing Board denied DOEs motion to withdraw its license application with prejudice,
the NRC commissioners issued an order inviting partiesincluding

the state of Nevada, local counties, and industryto file briefs
addressing whether the commissioners should review the boards
decision and, if so, whether they should uphold or reverse it. As of March
4, 2011, however, the commissioners have yet to announce whether they plan to review the boards
decision. In a separate action, the United States District Court of the District of Columbia that is hearing
the lawsuits against DOE decided to stay its proceedings until the NRC commissioners ruled on the boards
decision. Absent any action from the NRC commissioners, however, the plaintiffs in the lawsuits have
asked the federal court to expedite the hearings to prevent DOE from shutting down the Yucca Mountain
repository program. The court granted the request on December 10, 2010, and later scheduled oral
arguments to begin on March 22, 2011. The Atomic Safety and Licensing Board, with no further input from
the NRC commissioners or federal courts, announced its intention to continue with its consideration of the
the Board will consider

approximately 300 contentions submitted by stakeholders
questioning certain aspects of DOEs license application and related
participant filings and evidence. It is not yet clear whether NRC or the courts will rule that the
challenges to the license application. In these proceedings,
license application review process should resume.
b) Consolidation of nuclear waste is impossible due to

time constraints.
Michelle Boyd, January 2005, Proposed Yucca Mountain Nuclear Dump
Should Not Be Built Public Citizen- protecting health, safety, and democracyhttp://www.citizen.org/cmep/article_redirect.cfm?ID=12788, KTG
MYTH: Yucca Mountain will consolidate our nuclear waste in one place and therefore make us safer. FACT:
As long as we continue to use nuclear power, nuclear waste cannot
be consolidated. One of the biggest myths perpetuated by the Bush administration
is that the Yucca Mountain dump is the solution to our nuclear
waste problem. With waste in one place, the administration argues, it will no
longer be stored at sites throughout the country and be vulnerable
to theft and terrorism. This is wrong. Nuclear waste, which is
produced at every operating reactor, must be stored on site for
about five years before it can be transported, because it is too radioactive to
move. This means that at least five years worth of spent fuel (100-150
metric tons) will always remain at reactors as long as they continue to operate. Each
year, the 103 nuclear reactors in the United States generate about
2,000 metric tons of waste, which most people do not realize will
remain extremely radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years .
Today, approximately 50,000 metric tons sit at sites around the country, awaiting a permanent storage
According to the DOE, by the time Yucca Mountain is filled to its

legal limit of 70,000 metric tons, approximately 42,000 metric tons
of nuclear waste will be stored at 63 sites in 31 states still almost
as much as there is now. As long as we continue to use nuclear power, it is not possible to
site.
consolidate spent fuel.
c) Takes too long to build rail.


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The
DOE estimates that it will cost $1 billion to build a rail line from
Caliente, Nevada, located on the east edge of the state, to Yucca Mountain for the
transport of waste within Nevada. Waste would be shipped by rail to
Caliente from across the country. Due to high traffic along northern
lines and bad weather in the winter in the Rocky Mountains and
Great Plains, rail carriers, who determine the transport routes, may
find routing the waste along southern rail lines more attractive. T hus
more waste would travel across Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California, and more than 80
percent of shipments would go through Las Vegas on its way to Caliente.
Further, the DOE is considering using truck casks to transport waste
on railcars, because the Caliente tracks will not be completed by the
time the DOE wants to start shipping waste in 2010. It is telling that the
DOE originally dismissed this option in its Final Environmental
Impact Statement as too costly and too risky for workers and the
public.
d) No testing or certification process.

While the nuclear industry often points to international transport as
a model the United States can copy, nuclear waste transportation
internationally has a tarnished history. For instance, it was revealed
in 1997 that 26 percent of the French transport casks were
contaminated 50 times above the regulatory dose limits on their
exterior surface. Such contamination incidents also took place with United Kingdom, German and
Swiss shipments. As a result, shipments between France and Germany were halted for three years, from
transporting high-level nuclear waste

across the country through highly populated areas poses a security
risk. DOE and NRC testing has found that truck casks are vulnerable to sophisticated antitank weapons
1998 to 2001. In addition to accident risks,
and high-energy explosive devices, which can breach the wall of the cask. But, as the backpack
bombings in Madrid last March show, it does not take a sophisticated missile to successfully attack a train
or train tracks. Ultimately, the robustness of the shipping casks will determine whether radioactivity is
the NRC does not require

full-scale testing as part of its certification process. None of the
casks that are used for the few nuclear waste shipments made in the
United States have undergone full-scale testing. And there are no
plans for full-scale testing of all of the designs of casks that could be
used for waste shipments to Yucca Mountain. Ultimately, the
robustness of the shipping casks will determine whether
radioactivity is released when there is an accident, crash or attack.
Yet amazingly, the NRC does not require full-scale testing as part of
its certification process. None of the casks that are used for the few nuclear waste shipments
made in the United States have undergone full-scale testing. And there are no plans for
full-scale testing of all of the designs of casks that could be used for
waste shipments to Yucca Mountain.
released when there is an accident, crash or attack. Yet amazingly,

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A2: Interim Storage

Using Yucca as an interim facility fails even more.
GAO, September 2011, YUCCA MOUNTAIN: Information on Alternative
Uses of the Site and Related Challenges, Report to the Majority Leader, U.S.
Senate, http://www.gao.gov/assets/590/585320.pdf, KTG
Nuclear or radiological uses. Stakeholders proposed 10 nuclear or
radiological uses of the Yucca Mountain site, including the production of
medical isotopes,13 reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel,14 temporary or interim nuclear or
radioactive waste storage, and several uses related to nuclear power generation. Several nuclear
experts we contacted identified interim storage of nuclear waste as a good or great potential use of the site, since it is
one
nuclear expert identified use of the site for interim storage as very
poor, noting that it is impractical to transport high-level nuclear
waste more than once.15 Similarly, two stakeholders proposed producing medical isotopes on the site,
similar to the original proposed use and could therefore build on past efforts and studies. On the other hand,
and nuclear experts differed on the benefits and challenges of this use. As some experts acknowledged a need to increase
they, however, noted multiple challenges

related to isotope production at the Yucca Mountain site. For example, one
expert questioned the viability of the technologies stakeholders
production of medical isotopes in the United States,
proposed to produce medical isotopesthe use of electron accelerators or neutron generators. Stakeholders also
proposed two additional alternative uses related to nuclear researcha nuclear technologies research facility and a
research reactorthat also received mixed responses from experts we consulted. Some experts noted that such research
is already conducted at other locations, such as DOEs Idaho National Laboratory, and that another research location is
not necessary; further, some experts said that they did not believe that there would be an adequate workforce in Nevada
a research reactor would only

realize moderate benefit from historical investments and
infrastructure at Yucca Mountain.
to support such a facility. Moreover, one expert noted that
Temporary storage facilities inadequately secure nuclear

materials and turns infrastructure improvements.
Carol 12, Carol, Citizen. The task force responsible for revamping U.S.
nuclear waste policy has issued its final report. TexasVox: The Voice of Public
Citizen in Texas. TexasVox, February 3, 2012.
<http://texasvox.org/2012/02/03/the-task-force-responsible-for-revamping-us-nuclear-waste-policy-has-issued-its-final-report/.), KTG
Among the recommendations for managing the current stockpile of
spent nuclear fuel approximately 65,000 tons of waste stored at
about 75 operating and shut-down reactor sites around the country
is a plan to move the waste to temporary storage sites. Public Citizen
rejects this plan. In the absence of a permanent and viable solution, we and more than 200 other
organizations advocate safeguarding the waste where it is generated. Tell your representative in Congress
The temporary dump

plan is flawed for several reasons: It would put tons of lethal
radioactive waste on our highways, rails and waterways . An accident in
transit could put whole communities at risk. It would condemn a few targeted
communities to being radioactive waste dumps for the whole
country. Past attempts to place temporary dumps targeted Indian reservations and poor communities
of color by offering substantial financial incentives. The temporary dumps could
become permanent if no suitable geological repository site is found.
It does not address an existing critical vulnerability of nuclear waste
storage: almost all reactor fuel pools are filled to capacity . Fuel that is cool
to reject efforts to move radioactive waste to temporary dump sites.
enough to move is stored in outdoor casks. Both types of storage are vulnerable to accidents, attack and

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natural disasters, as shown so clearly by the Fukushima nuclear disaster. To better safeguard this waste,
we advocate hardened on-site storage a plan that calls for emptying the waste storage pools and
placing the irradiated rods in high-quality outdoor casks fortified by thick bunkers and berms. Ideally, we
should stop generating nuclear waste, but while it continues to accumulate, we must implement smart
safeguards to protect people and the environment from the immediate risks associated with high-level
radioactive waste.

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A2: Fiat Solves the Solvency Deficits

This argument is ridiculous. Utopian Fiat is bad:
Interpretation: Fiat only guarantees immediate legislative
passage through the United States federal government.
1. Groundthe negative can literally access nothing if the
affirmative can just say that fiat solves the deficit or the
linkhurts topic education.
2. Not Real Worldpolicymakers cant just wish away
every single problem facing a potential federal program.
3. Not reciprocalthe negative cant fiat anything they
wantwere restricted to logical fiat-based arguments or
else we are strung by theory. Hurts fairness.
4. Err Neg on theoryaff has infinite 1AC prep time and
gets the first and last speech.

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1NC
Infrastructure uniquely increases the risk of waste
terrorismleaves more fuel vulnerable and Yucca is not
safe enough.
Counter: Moving waste to Yucca Mountain will not eliminate risks
associated with nuclear power plants, it would only create another
waste dump. In the event of a transportation accident, moving waste
to Yucca could create more than one more nuclear site. Furthermore,
shipping waste to Yucca Mountain will not decrease the terrorist
threat associated with spent fuel; it may even increase the risk by
putting nuclear waste on the countrys rails and roads. Storage of spent
fuel on-site for several decades is feasible and can generally be done relatively safely, if industry and
the design and

licensing requirements of on-site storage casks should be strictly
implemented and enforced to ensure that they can safely handle
wastes for several decades. Both European studies and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
regulatory authorities pay due attention to the safety issues involved. For example,
Commission state that dry spent fuel storage is safe and environmentally acceptable for a period of 100
storage
near the site may be safer than on site. However, moving the waste
would give rise to its own issues and is generally difficult to
accomplish.
years. [4] In some instances, such as in severe earthquake zones or on riverine islands,
TurnYucca Mountain would release more radiation.

The ground under the Yucca Mountain site is crisscrossed by 33 fault lines and is nicknamed Serpent
Nevada
ranks third in the nation for current seismic activity. A 1992 earthquake 12
miles from the site registered 5.6 on the Richter scale. Earthquakes could cause the
casks in the surface facility, which is slated to hold as much as
40,000 metric tons of spent fuel in vertical dry casks, to break open
and release radiation.
Swimming West by the Western Shoshone Indian nation due to its constant movement.

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No nuclear terrorno ingredients, no state supporters,

IAEA and US deterrence, Mutually Assured Destruction,
Radioactivity, and plutonium shorages, and nuclear plant
security all determost recent ev and supported by
credible authors.
2012, Planes, Trains, and Car Bombds: The Method Behind the Madness of
Only a handful of countries with industrialized economies have ever
accomplished the task of acquiring and assembling the ingredients
for a nuclear weapon. While some worry that states might simply
hand over those hard won nuclear devices to terrorists, this is
highly unlikely. The IAEA and the US government have developed
tools of nuclear forensics that allow them to trace the origin of
bombs even after detonation.167 168 This effectively places a return
address on a nuclear attack, which, by the logic of mutually
assured destruction, deters states from relinquishing control of their
nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, states lending nuclear weapons would have little reason to trust that terrorists would keep VII. A LIMITED
REPERTOIRE their secret or do with the weapon what they promised. Terrorists could easily blackmail or threaten any donor state for more weapons or power. T
he
first they would need to procure

significant quantities of highly enriched uranium (HEU or U-235) or
plutonium.169 The latter is difficult to come by, is highly radioactive
(easily setting off passive sensors and sickening those who handle it), and must be prepared inside nuclear
reactors that are heavily guarded. And building a plutonium bomb, because o f its sophisticated
architecture and pluto- niums dangerous radioactive instability, is extremely difficult even for nuclear
physicists and skilled engineers. Terrorists hopes for a nuclear weapon, therefore, rest on simpler uranium bombs that,
other way terrorists could get their hands on a nuclear weapon is to build one. But
while still requiring rare technical expertise, may use a less complex gun mechanism January 2012 57 The Science of Security (which fires a piece of HEU into a
larger chunk of the same material) to create a violent nuclear chain reaction.170 But there are multiple hurdles to clear before even beginning the complex process of
terrorists would need to collect HEU
creating such a gun-bomb. First,

. There are two paths by which they could do
this. They could gather a great deal of uranium-238 (which can be mined out of the ground) or reactor grade low enriched uranium and then build technically precise and
powerful centrifuges able to spin the fissile U-235 to the top. Those centrifuges, Libyan, Iraqi, and Iranian scientists can testify, require industrial scale operations that are
, multiple authors agree, is not at all likely to

be successfully tread by terrorists.171 The only other path terrorists
could take to create a uranium gun bomb would require that they
beg, borrow, or steal HEU from a corrupt employee of some nuclear facility. But, current international nonproliferation efforts make that
incredibly precise and very difficult to replicate. This path
method of procurement exceedingly difficult even for well-financed sovereign states. Any illegal sale of fissionable material would launch an exhaustive manhunt focusing
on the relatively few people able to access the material. Such attempted illegal sales of nuclear material were discovered eighteen times between 1993 and 2007 as states
of the former Soviet Union reacted slowly to the need to secure fissionable material. The interdicted sales (if successful) would have only resulted in the transfer of less
than 17.5 pounds of HEU and less than 1 pound of plutonium. Even the most generous estimates of terrorists technical ability and luck would require them to gather
around 50 pounds of HEU to construct a sophisticated and efficient gun-bomb,172 twice as much if their design were simpler.173 As Vahid Majidi, head of VII. A LIMITED
REPERTOIRE the FBIs WMD directorate has recently concluded, the prospect of nuclear terrorism is very exciting, always good to see in a movie setting...but
havent seen a credible approach.174
we

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Rail transport increases the risk of terrorism
In addition to accident risks, transporting high-level nuclear waste
across the country through highly populated areas poses a security
risk. DOE and NRC testing has found that truck casks are vulnerable
to sophisticated antitank weapons and high-energy explosive
devices, which can breach the wall of the cask. But, as the
backpack bombings in Madrid last March show, it does not take a
sophisticated missile to successfully attack a train or train tracks.

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Nuclear Leadership/Power

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1NC
Nuclear leadership high nowwe have the gold standard
for nonprolif.
Elaine M. Grossman, May 16 2013, Former U.S. National Security
Leaders Object to More Restrictive Nuclear Trade Policies National Journal,

republished on Yahoo News., KTG
WASHINGTON -- A half-dozen former U.S. national security leaders last
month implored President Obama to avoid tightening restrictions on
foreign nuclear cooperation in the interest of nonproliferation . The
U.S. civil nuclear industry is one of [Washingtons] most powerful
tools for advancing its nuclear nonproliferation agenda , according to an
April 25 letter obtained this week by Global Security Newswire. It is critical to adopt policies that will
strengthen that tool, the missive reads. Weakening it will merely cede foreign markets to other suppliers
less concerned about nonproliferation than the United States. The appeal to Obama reportedly was
circulated for signature by the president and chief executive officer of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, John Hamre, according to sources familiar with the initiative. It appears on CSIS
letterhead. In addition to the one-time deputy Defense secretary, signatories include former national
security advisers Brent Scowcroft and James Jones, former Defense secretaries James Schlesinger and
The
letter cautions against the adoption of policies that could
inadvertently weaken the ability of the United States to continue to
provide international leadership on this critically important issue,
though it stops short of naming specific policies the authors find
objectionable. A CSIS spokesman, H. Andrew Schwartz, on Wednesday said Hamre was on travel
William Cohen, and retired Adm. Michael Mullen, previously chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
and could not respond to questions about the letter. Issue experts, though, said the eight writers appear
to be concerned about an ongoing Obama administration internal policy review regarding its approach to
Lawmakers repeatedly have called

on the federal branch to strengthen its pursuit of the so-called
nonproliferation gold standard, in which a trade partner receives access to sensitive
negotiating atomic trade pacts with other nations.
U.S. nuclear materials or technologies only in exchange for a promise not to produce atomic fuel on its own
soil. Enriching uranium or reprocessing plutonium can be used in civil nuclear power generation, but these
activities also could open the door to a clandestine atomic weapons effort, as is widely suspected in Iran
and elsewhere.
Uranium enrichment is the biggest factor in nuclear

leadershiponly way to secure our nuclear materials.
Gen. James Jones, January 17, 2012, US must remain leader in nuclear
enrichment Jones is a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center and cochairman of its Energy Project. He was national security adviser to President
Obama from January 2009 to November 2010, http://thehill.com/opinion/oped/204711-us-must-remain-leader-in-nuclear-enrichment-, KTG
Achieving energy security is among our nations most pressing
requirements in this still-young century. I believe that America must employ a more
strategic national energy policy if it is to overcome the many complex energy challenges that will so
heavily influence its economic and national security. While our continued dependence on foreign sources of
oil might remain the most visible threat to American energy security, consequential energy-related threats
such as climate change and the proliferation of nuclear material will continue to bear heavily on our
Nuclear nonproliferation, long one of

Americas chief international security strategies, has been a major
priority for this administration, as it has for every administration since World War II. Nuclear power is
security for many decades to come.
unique among energy sources because the commercial use of civilian technology is inseparable from

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The commercial trade of nuclear

technology can heighten proliferation risks. Such vulnerabilities in a complex and
nuclear security and proliferation concerns.
dangerous world must continue to be managed responsibly a primary objective of the nonproliferation
Our commercial
leadership in the nuclear industry has been an enduring source of
Americas influence in the global marketplace and a potent lever for
promoting international cooperation in developing and enforcing
nonproliferation regimes. Unfortunately, the U.S. is ceding its
leadership in key areas of nuclear technology development. Of
greatest concern is potential loss of leadership in the enrichment
industry. The U.S. once produced a majority of the worlds supply of
enriched uranium necessary to generate nuclear power, but today it
produces only 25 percent. The United States Enrichment Corporation (USEC), which operates
laws and safeguards that accompany the export of U.S. nuclear technology.
the United Statess largest commercial uranium enrichment facility, is the only U.S. majority-owned
supplier. However, its plant located in Paducah, Ky., uses antiquated and inefficient technology. The
enterprise is not well-positioned to compete cost-effectively and its ability to sustain operations remains in
The loss of our only domestically-owned source of
enriched uranium will severely undermine Americas influence in the
industry and our leadership in vital international nonproliferation
efforts. Without the United States as a reliable source of nuclear fuel, particularly in a world with
serious doubt.
increasing demand for low- and no-carbon electric generation, other nations will have greater incentive to
pursue their own enrichment capabilities, increasing the risks of proliferation and the chances that civilian
We know well the adverse

effects on U.S. national security and international stability of North
Koreas and Irans pursuit of nuclear weapons under the guise of
commercial enrichment. The disappearance of a domestically owned
capability would not only undermine U.S. leadership in a highly
consequential arena of global commerce and security, it would
render us dependent on foreign-controlled sources of uranium
enrichment. This could increase the vulnerability not only of
Americas commercial nuclear industry but of our national nuclear
arsenal. Tritium, produced using enriched uranium, is necessary to
maintain and modernize our nuclear weapons. Relying on foreign
suppliers for material essential for maintaining the safety, security
and reliability of our nuclear capability is unacceptable. It is critical that the
nuclear technology will be diverted for malign purposes.
federal government continue to invest in the research and development of technologies necessary to
sustain modern and commercially viable domestic enrichment capability. Toward this end, the Department
of Energy has requested congressional authorization to repurpose $300 million dollars to support
continued R&D over the next two years. Unfortunately, the initial $150 million needed to demonstrate new
technologies was not included in the recent spending bill. There is controversy over the appropriate role
of the federal government in supporting technology commercialization. We must not let this debate
negatively affect U.S. national security or our continued commitment to energy R&D vital to Americas
energy, economic and national security a role that has always, appropriately, received overwhelming
bipartisan support.
Nuclear leadership doesnt matterIAEA proves.

Xinhau News, May 18 2013, IAEA chief says Iran refuses to cooperate
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-05/18/c_132390369.htm, KTG
MOSCOW, May 17 (Xinhua) -- Iran has refused to cooperate with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over its controversial
nuclear program, Yukiya Amano, director-general of the UN nuclear watchdog, said here on
Friday. The IAEA didn't know whether Iran's nuclear program has a
military goal, Amano said in a speech at the International Relations Institute in Moscow. The
agency has expressed its concerns on various occasions that Iranian authorities didn't

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allow international inspectors to inspect its nuclear facility in

Parchin, he noted. Major western powers suspect Iran is trying to
develop nuclear weapons through its nuclear program, which Tehran
insists is for civilian purposes only. Over the past few months, Tehran and the IAEA
held several rounds of talks to develop a structured approach to addressing the Iran nuclear issue, but no
agreement was reached. The nuclear watchdog suspects that some nuclear experiments
might have been conducted in Parchin. Iran denied the allegations, saying that the IAEA should first
present documents explaining its intended visit to the military site.

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A2: Nuc Leadership k2 Iran Deterrence

The US doesnt matter in current talks with IranIAEA and
the EU are taking up diplomacy.
The Jerusalem Post, May 15 2013, IAEA, EU to press Iran in nuclear
dispute http://www.jpost.com/Iranian-Threat/News/IAEA-EUs-Ashton-seeknuclear-progress-in-Iran-talks-313191, KTG
VIENNA/ISTANBUL - Iran faces international pressure over its nuclear
program in two separate meetings on Wednesday, but no breakthrough is
expected with the Islamic state focused on next month's presidential election. In Vienna, the UN
nuclear agency will once again urge Iran to stop stonewalling its
inquiry into suspected atomic bomb research by Tehran, which
denies any intent to make such arms. Related: German FM: We won't accept Iranian
nukes Netanyahu: Nuclear Iran could disrupt oil supply The talks started around 10 a.m. (0800 GMT) at
Iran's diplomatic mission in the Austrian capital. "Differences
remain but we ... are

determined to solve these issues," Herman Nackaerts, deputy director general of the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told reporters. Later over dinner in Istanbul, the
European Union's top diplomat will meet Iran's chief nuclear
negotiator - also now a presidential candidate - to discuss a broader diplomatic
effort bid to resolve a row that could ignite war in the Middle East .
The two sets of talks represent distinct diplomatic tracks but are linked because both center on suspicions
that Iran may be seeking the capability to assemble nuclear bombs behind the facade of a declared civilian
atomic energy program.

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A2: Nuclear Power solves Oil Dependence

False
MYTH: We need to open Yucca Mountain to advance nuclear power,
which will decrease our dependence on foreign oil.
FACT: Nuclear power cannot rescue us from our dependence on
foreign oil.
Oil provides only 1.4 percent of the electricity produced in the
United States, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.
Two-thirds of the oil consumed in the United States is used for
transportation. While nuclear power could theoretically be used to
generate hydrogen, which may someday power vehicles, many
technological hurdles remain to implementing the hydrogen
economy on a large scale, including appropriate methods of
hydrogen storage, delivery and efficient generation.

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Aircraft Carriers Negative

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CP
TEXT: The United States federal government should
systematize professional training opportunities for its
humanitarian workforce.
Counterplan is a PREREQUISITE to the affirmative. The
counterplan standardizes and improves the entire
methodology of US humanitarian aid. The counterplan
solves the entirety of the affs humanitarian aid
advantage
Harvard University, 2013 (Program on Humanitarian Policy and Conflict
Research. Humanitarian Innovations and Professional Networks: A Study on the Role

of Professional Networks in the Dissemination of Innovations and Best Practices in the
Humanitarian Sector. http://www.hpcrresearch.org/research/humanitarianinnovations-and-professional-networks), KTG
Despite the rapid growth in, and magnitude of people impacted

globally by the humanitarian sector, there is currently no
internationally-agreed framework defining what a humanitarian
worker is, what standards should guide one's activities, or what the
training and skills needed to be defined as such are. Humanitarian
action remains inherently a multi-faceted field of practice drawing from various

technical and scientific fields including, among others, communications, engineering,
law, logistics, medical and social sciences, and organizational management. In
addition, there are no established paths to disseminate information on innovations
and best practices across the humanitarian sector, mostly due to the limited
professional development and training capacity within humanitarian organizations. As
described in the recent major Enhancing Learning & Research for Humanitarian
Assistance (ELRHA) report, Global Survey on Humanitarian Professionalisation,
much effort is needed to systematize professional training

opportunities for humanitarian workers [2]. The humanitarian
workforce is composed of distinct segments with varying degrees of
access to professional development opportunities: from local staff
engaging in frontline operations at the field level to transient
workers and managers migrating from one region to another based
on their agencies needs. As a result, there is not yet an agreed set
of professional benchmarks or curricula encompassing all the
required knowledge, competences and skills of humanitarian
professionals [3]. As access to professional development opportunities varies
considerably among humanitarian workers, so do demands for particular
competences and skills. Recent studies show that most professional training efforts
currently target new hires at an induction level and that the proposed proficiency
standards remain agency-specific [3]. While there are a growing number of
opportunities for advanced professional development in humanitarian action, the vast
majority of them are provided by institutions of higher learning in the North and
remain inaccessible to the majority of humanitarian workers in the South [4].

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1NC
States are fiscally making a comeback but are on the
brink of further decline.
Leigh Ann Renzulli, June 14 2012, State Budgets Have a Good Year, The
Governing Magazine- State Government News on politicals, management,
policy, and politics; http://www.governing.com/news/state/gov-good-year-forstate-budgets.html, KTG
The state budgets of Arizona, Michigan and Rhode Island suffered the biggest blows as a result of the
recession. But this year, all three states may have budget surpluses, according to Stateline. In fact,
budgets in most states have started to show a significant recovery, which is changing lawmakers' minds
A year ago, many states were considering tax

increases and spending cuts. This year, more states are debating
restoring services that were cut as a result of the recession as well
as cutting taxes. Also in contrast to last year, fewer states seem to be in
danger of not finishing their budgets in time for the new fiscal year ,
Stateline reports. Not every state is out of the water though . Some states,
about their financial futures.
especially Illinois and California, are faced with budget crises this year similar in scope to ones faced by
Other states have seen their budgets finally

improve since the start of the recession, but are still faced with
tough decisions regarding public projects and federal budget cuts, according to Stateline.
other states during the recession.
Large federal infrastructure projects force internal budget

tradeoffs.
Treasury and the Council of Economic Advisers 2012, A New
Economic Analysis Of Infrastructure Investment Department Of The Treasury
With The Council Of Economic Advisers http://www.treasury.gov/presscenter/news/Pages/03232012-infrastructure.aspx
Finally, it is important to consider the economic situation facing state
and local governments who are significant partners in funding public
infrastructure. During recessions, it is common for state and local
governments to cut back on capital projects such as building
schools, roads, and parks in order to meet balanced budget requirements.
At the beginning of the most recent recession, tax receipts at the
state and local level contracted for four straight quarters; receipts are still
below pre-recession levels. Past research has found that expenditures on capital projects are more than
four times as sensitive to year-to-year fluctuations in state income as is state spending in general.30
However, the need for improved and expanded infrastructure is just as great during a downturn as it is
Providing immediate additional federal support for

transportation infrastructure investment would be prudent given the
ongoing budgetary constraints facing state and local governments,
during a boom.
the upcoming reduction in federal infrastructure investment as Recovery Act funds are depleted, and the
strong benefits associated with public investment.
State budget crisis forces cuts in technical K-12 and

university education
Leachman et. Al. 2011 Michael Leachman Director of State Fiscal
Research with the State Fiscal Policy division of the Center; holds a Ph.D. in
sociology from Loyola University Chicago; policy analyst for nine years at the
Oregon Center for Public Policy; AND*** Nicholas Johnson- graduate degree

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from Duke University's Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Director of the
State Fiscal Project, which works to develop strategies for long-term structural
reform of state budget and tax systems, encourage low-income tax relief, and
improve the way states prioritize funding, received the Ian Axford Fellowship
in Public Policy, a program financed by the New Zealand government and
administered by Fulbright New Zealand. Through this fellowship, he spent six
months as an advisor to the New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand
Ministry of Social Development; AND*** Erica Williams - M.A. in International
Policy the Monterey Institute of International Studies; Policy Analyst with the
State Fiscal Project; (Michael, Nicholas Johnson, Erica Williams, State Budget
Cuts in the New Fiscal Year Are Unnecessarily Harmful, July 28,
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3550)
Since states spend more of their budgets on education and health care than
anything else, lawmakers imposing large spending are hard-pressed to
avoid cutting back on these essential public services . Many states also will lay off
state employees or cut their pay and benefits. These actions, coming on top of deep cuts that states have
already made over the last three years, place a drag on the nations economic recovery. Elementary
and Secondary Education At least 23 states have made identifiable cuts in
support for public schools. In many cases, these cuts undermine school finance systems that are
intended to reduce disparities between high-wealth and low-wealth school districts, so the largest impacts may be felt in
communities that are least able to compensate for the loss of funds from their own resources. Arizona is cutting $183
million from K-12 education spending in the coming year and continues another $377 million in cuts that were
implemented over the previous three years, bringing the total cut relative to pre-recession levels to $560 million, or $530
per pupil. Colorado is cutting state spending on K-12 education by $347 per pupil compared to last school year. Florida is
cutting spending on K-12 education by $542 per pupil compared with last year. The state also has cut $13 million from the
states school readiness program that gives low-income families access to high quality early care for their children. The
cut means over 15,000 children currently participating in the program will no longer be served. Florida also reduced by 7
percent the per-student allocation to providers participating in the states universal prekindergarten program for 4-yearolds, which will mean that classrooms have more children per teacher. Georgia cut state and lottery funds for prekindergarten by 15 percent, which will mean shortening the pre-K school year from 180 to 160 days for 86,000 four-yearolds, increasing class sizes from 20 to 22 students per teacher, and reducing teacher salaries by 10 percent. Iowa reduced
state funding for its statewide pre-kindergarten program for four-year-olds by 9 percent from last year. Schools serving
these children will now receive fewer dollars per child and may have to make up for lost funds with reduced enrollment or
higher property taxes. The state is also cutting back support for a community-based early childhood program that
provides resources to parents with children from birth to age 5, including a cut of nearly 30 percent to preschool tuition
assistance. Illinois is cutting general state aid for public schools by $152 million, on top of a loss of $415 million in expired
federal recovery dollars a total decrease of 11 percent. The budget takes $17 million from the state fund that supports
early childhood education efforts, which may result in an estimated 4,000 fewer children receiving preschool services and
1,000 fewer at-risk infants and toddlers receiving developmental services. The budget also eliminates state funding for
advanced placement courses in school districts with large concentrations of low-income students, mentoring programs for
teachers and principals, and an initiative providing targeted, research-based instruction to students with learning
difficulties. Kansas cut the basic funding formula for K-12 schools by $232 per-pupil, bringing this funding nearly 6 percent
below fiscal year 2011 budgeted levels. For the third year in a row, Louisiana will fail to fund K-12 education at the
minimum amount required to ensure adequate funding for at-risk and special needs students, as determined by the
states education finance formula. Per student spending will be $215 below the level set out by the finance formula for
FY12. Michigan is cutting K-12 education spending by $470 per student. Mississippi, for the fourth year in a row, will fail to
meet the states statutory obligation to support K-12 schools, underfunding school districts by 10.5 percent or $236
million. The statutory school funding formula is designed to ensure adequate funding for lower-income and
underperforming schools. According to the Mississippi Department of Education, the states failure to meet that
requirement over the past three years has resulted in 2,060 school employee layoffs (704 teachers, 792 teacher
assistants, 163 administrators, counselors, and librarians, and 401 bus drivers, custodians, and clerical personnel).[11]
Missouri is freezing funding for K-12 education at last years levels. This means that for the second year in a row, the state
has failed to meet the statutory funding formula established to ensure equitable distribution of state dollars to school
districts. Nebraska altered its K-12 school aid funding formula to freeze state aid to schools in the coming year and allow
very small increases thereafter, resulting in a cut of $410 million over two years. New Mexico cut K-12 spending by $42
million (1.7 percent). The governor is requiring school districts to spare classroom spending from the cuts, which means
greater proportional cuts to other areas of K-12 education like school libraries and guidance counseling. The operating
budget of the state education department is being cut by more than 25 percent. New York cut education aid by $1.3
billion, or 6.1 percent. This cut will delay implementation of a court order to provide additional education funding to underresourced school districts for the third year in a row. Beyond cutting the level of education aid in FY12, the budget limits
the rate at which education spending can grow in future years to the rate of growth in state personal income. North
Carolina cut nearly half of a billion dollars from K-12 education in each year of the biennium compared to the amount
necessary to provide the same level of K-12 education services in 2012 as in 2011. Both the state-funded prekindergarten
program for at risk 4-year-olds and the states early childhood development network that works to improve the quality of
early learning and child outcomes were cut by 20 percent. The budget also reduces by 80 percent funds for textbooks;
reduces by 5 percent funds for support positions, like guidance counselors and social workers; reduces by 15 percent
funds for non-instructional staff; and cuts by 16 percent salaries and benefits for superintendents, associate and assistant
superintendents, finance officers, athletic trainers, and transportation directors, among others. Ohio is cutting state K-12

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education funding 7.5 percent this year, a cut of $400 per student and equivalent to nearly 14,000 teachers salaries.
Oklahoma is cutting funding for school districts by 4.5 percent, and makes additional cuts to the Department of
Educations budget. The Department of Education has voted to eliminate adult education programs, math labs in middle
school, and stipends for certified teachers, among other things. Pennsylvania cut K-12 education aid by $422 million, or
7.3 percent, bringing funding down nearly to FY2009 levels. The budget also cuts $429 million dollars in additional funding
that the state provides to school districts to implement effective educational practices (such as high quality prekindergarten programs) and maintain tutoring programs, among other purposes. Overall state funding for school districts
was cut by $851 million or 13.5 percent, a cut of $485 per student. South Dakota cut K-12 education by 6.4 percent, next
year, an amount equal to $416 per student, and 8.8 percent in 2013. Texas eliminated state funding for pre-K programs
that serve around 100,000 mostly at-risk children, or more than 40 percent of the states pre-kindergarten students. The
budget also reduces state K-12 funding to 9.4 percent below the minimum amount required by the state law. Texas
already has below-average K-12 education funding compared to other states, and this cut would depress that low level
even further at a time when the states school enrollment is growing. This would likely force school districts to lay off large
numbers of teachers, increase class sizes, eliminate sports programs and other extracurricular activities, and take other
measures that undermine the quality of education. Utah cut K-12 education by 5 percent, or $303, per pupil from the prior
years levels. Washington is taking over $1 billion from state K-12 education funds designed to reduce class size, extend
learning time, and provide professional development for teachers a cut equal to $1,100 per student. Wisconsin reduced
state aid designed to equalize funding across school districts by $740 million over the coming two-year budget cycle, a
cut of 8 percent. The budget also reduces K-12 funds for services for at-risk children, school nursing,
and alternative education. Higher Education At least 25 states have made large, identifiable cuts in funding for state
colleges and universities, with direct impacts on students. Arizona cut funding for public universities by nearly onequarter, or $200 million. This would add to deep previous cuts: from 2008 through 2011, state support for universities fell
by $230 million, resulting in the elimination of more than 2,100 positions (an 11 percent reduction in the workforce).
Universities have raised tuition significantly, closed eight extended

campuses, and merged, consolidated, or disestablished 182
colleges, schools, programs, and departments. Combined with those
previous cuts, the FY12 reduction brings per-student state funding
down to 50 percent below pre-recession levels.[12]
That destroys American primacy

NAS 7 (Committee on Prospering in the Global Economy of the 21st
Century: An Agenda for American Science and Technology Committee on

Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, RISING ABOVE THE GATHERING
STORM Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future,
National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of
Medicine, July, http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11463.html)
China and India indeed have low wage structures, but the United States has many other advantages.
These include a better science and technology infrastructure, stronger venture-capital markets, an ability
Comparative
advantage shifts from place to place over time and always has; the
earth cannot really be flattened. The US response to competition
must include proper retraining of those who are disadvantaged and adaptive institutional
to attract talent from around the world, and a culture of inventiveness.
and policy responses that make the best use of opportunities that arise. India and China will become
consumers of those countries products as well as ours. That same rising middle class will have a stake in
the frictionless flow of international commerceand hence in stability, peace, and the rule of law.
Such a desirable state, writes Friedman, will not be achieved without

problems, and whether global flatness is good for a particular
country depends on whether that country is prepared to compete on
the global playing field, which is as rough and tumble as it is level.
Friedman asks rhetorically whether his own country is proving its
readiness by investing in our future and preparing our children the
way we need to for the race ahead. Friedmans answer, not surprisingly, is no. This
report addresses the possibility that our lack of preparation will
reduce the ability of the United States to compete in such a world. Many
underlying issues are technical; some are not. Some are politicalnot in the sense of partisan politics,
but in the sense of bringing the rest of the body politic along. Scientists and engineers often avoid such
discussions, but the stakes are too high to keep silent any longer. Friedmans term quiet crisis, which
a creeping crisis, is reminiscent of the folk tale about

boiling a frog. If a frog is dropped into boiling water, it will
immediately jump out and survive. But a frog placed in cool water
others have called

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that is heated slowly until it boils wont respond until it is too late. Our
crisis is not the result of a one-dimensional change; it is more than a simple increase in water temperature.
The United States is instead

facing problems that are developing slowly but surely , each like a
tile in a mosaic. None by itself seems sufficient to provoke action.
But the collection of problems reveals a disturbing picturea
recurring pattern of abundant short-term thinking and insufficient
long-term investment. Our collective reaction thus far seems to presuppose that the citizens of
And we have no single awakening event, such as Sputnik.
the United States and their children are entitled to a better quality of life than others, and that all
Americans need do is circle the wagons to defend that entitlement. Such a presupposition does not reflect
reality and neither recognizes the dangers nor seizes the opportunities of current circumstances.
Furthermore, it wont work. In 2001, the HartRudman Commission on national security, which foresaw
large-scale terrorism in America and proposed the establishment of a cabinet-level Homeland Security
The inadequacies of
our system of research and education pose a greater threat to U.S.
national security over the next quarter century than any potential
conventional war that we might imagine. President George W. Bush has said Science
and technology have never been more essential to the defense of
the nation and the health of our economy.5 US Commission on National Security.
organization before the terrorist attacks of 9/11, put the matter this way:4
Road Map for National Security: Imperative for Change. Washington, DC: US Commission on National
Security, 2001. A letter from the leadership of the National Science Foundation to the Presidents Council of
Civilization is on the
brink of a new industrial order. The big winners in the increasingly
fierce global scramble for supremacy will not be those who simply make commodities
faster and cheaper than the competition. They will be those who develop talent,
techniques and tools so advanced that there is no competition .
Advisors on Science and Technology put the case even more bluntly:6

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Budget Good Now/Link Magnifier

State budgets are recovering but are approaching a
deadly brinkonly federal budget pressures push states
over the cliff.
Reuters, August 7 2012, U.S. State Budgets Face Slow and Uneven
Recovery With Considerably Challenges, Posted on the Huffington Post,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/07/us-state-budgets-slowrecovery_n_1749921.html, KTG
Aug 7 (Reuters) - Their revenues are improving and their budget shortfalls are
disappearing, but U.S. states face both domestic and international economic
threats that could cut short their nascent recoveries, according to a report
released on Tuesday. "While there are signs of improvement, the turnaround has been slow and
uneven across the nation," the National Conference of State Legislatures said in a budget update. "Moreover, the
newfound flexibility that lawmakers expect from improving revenues
may be hobbled by mounting budget pressures ." The European debt crisis, still-high
jobless rates in many U.S. states, funding demands from healthcare reform, and the U.S. deficit are all some of the
"considerable challenges" confronting states, the study found. "Fortunately, state budgets today are better positioned to
handle these challenges," the bipartisan NCSL said. "As reported by legislative fiscal directors, year-end balances are
rising, with more states shoring up their rainy day funds." The financial crisis, housing bust and 2007-09 recession
caused revenue in many states to collapse just as demand for services from the newly homeless and jobless workers
spiked. States cut spending, raised taxes, raided reserves and turned to the federal government for help in the hopes of
keeping their budgets balanced. The situation is now turning around . Only California and the
state of Washington currently are projecting deficits for fiscal 2012, according to NCSL. At the same time, resource-rich
states like Alaska, Wyoming and North Dakota expect big balances for fiscal 2012, which ended on June 30 for most
states. For fiscal 2013, none of the states are projecting deficits , with 10
states and Washington, D.C., eyeing balances equal to 10 percent or more of general fund spending, the NCSL reported.
However, year-end balances of just 0.1 percent to 4.9 percent are projected in nearly a quarter of the states. Many states
consider the surpluses and revenue gains small respites - instead of muscular recoveries - from their budget crises. While
fiscal 2012 general fund revenue increased by 2.9 percent and spending rose by 3.1 percent over fiscal 2011 levels, "the
robust return of state revenue collections that typified previous recoveries remains elusive," according to the NCSL.
States' fiscal 2013 revenue is expected to climb by only 3.7 percent, with spending rising by 2.4 percent over fiscal 2012
levels. The slow recovery is apparent in federal data, too. In 2011, U.S. real gross domestic product by state grew 1.5
percent, compared with 3.1 percent in 2010, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. The improvements vary from
state to state.

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**Disasters Mod
Budget crisis leads to cuts in disaster response.
Matt A. Mayer et al.; James Jay Carafano, and Jessica Zuckerman, August
23, 2011, Homeland Security 4.0: Overcoming Centralization,
Complacency, and Politics; Mayer is a Visiting Fellow at the Douglas and

Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies and at Heritage Foundation;
Carafano is Deputy Director at the Institute for International Studies and
Director at the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy studies,
Ph.D in FoPo; Zuckerman is a research associate at the DSAC for Foreign
Policy Studies, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/08/homelandsecurity-4-0-overcoming-centralization-complacency-and-politics, KTG
States have learned to beg Washington for help whenever a natural
disaster strikes in the hope of receiving a FEMA declaration and the
accompanying money. Some states have cut their budgets for public
assistance for FEMA declarations and federal funding. Over the past 10 years,
states have slashed their emergency response budgets. FEMA spends too
much time responding to routine natural disasters and not enough time preparing for catastrophic natural disasters, such
as hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, which could have a national impact. This is increasing the likelihood
that the federal response to the next catastrophic event will be insufficient. Congress should reduce the cost-share
provision for all FEMA declarations to no more than 25 percent of the costs. This will help to ensure that at least threefourths of the costs of a disaster are borne by the taxpayers living in the state where the disaster took place. For
catastrophes with a nationwide impactsuch as 9/11 and Hurricane Katrinaa relief provision could provide for a higher
federal cost-share if the total costs of the disaster exceed a certain threshold.
(insert Impact)

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Disasters Poverty Impact

Disasters increase poverty and hurts the poor the most
Care International Organization, May 6 2011, Poverty Causes
Disasters and Disasters Cause Poverty: CARE at the Global Platform for
Disaster Risk Reduction in Geneva, http://www.care-international.org/MediaReleases/poverty-causes-disasters-and-disasters-cause-poverty.html, KTG
As an international conference on disaster risk reduction gets underway in Geneva, CARE International warns that the
humanitarian disasters are eroding the coping ability of

poor people and therefore undermining their ability to escape
poverty. Poverty causes disasters and disasters cause poverty, says Robert Glasser, CAREs Secretary General
and one of the speakers at the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, May 8 13, 2011. When disasters
strike, poor people often lose their assets on which their survival
depends. At the same time, their limited resources, lack of access to
education and health services can increase their expose to risks. For
increasing number of
example, many poor peoples livelihoods depend on agriculture. But a drought or flood can destroy a years income in the
blink of an eye. In many regions, risk is growing. Population increase, climate change, increasing urbanization and
environmental degradation are some of the drivers of future disaster risk for poor people worldwide. In recent decades,
Developing countries are

most exposed to the risks of disasters as their inhabitants often lack
the ability to cope with or adapt to such events, especially in the case of re-occurring
there has been a rise in both the number and impact of natural disasters.
disasters. As more than half the worlds population lives in cities, poorly planned and managed urban development is a
key driver of disaster risk. Poor housing, lack of health facilities and infrastructure put nearly one billion urban dwellers
living in informal settlements at risk of disasters. The lives and livelihoods of people living in flood plains, low lying coastal
areas and steep slopes are particularly in danger. Deforestation, overgrazing and land degradation have damaged
ecosystems and are exacerbating the risks of disasters such as floods or landslides. Very often, it is women who are most
affected by disasters. More women than men are injured or killed during hurricanes and floods. They have in general less
access to political and economic resources needed to protect themselves from disasters, and to deal with disaster effects.
Women are less likely to know how to swim; they are often restricted from running fast by their clothing; their role as
caretakers of children and older people as well as cultural rules restrict them from leaving their homes without the
accompaniment of a male relative. We
need to reduce the risks for poor people by

strengthening their capabilities to cope with recurring disasters ,
Glasser says. One dollar invested in disaster risk reduction saves up to seven dollars in emergency response and
rehabilitation. This includes assisting people to diversify and adapt their livelihoods, helping build capacities of urban
governance to ensure urban dwellers can live on safe lands and have access to infrastructure and services, and protecting
ecosystems through community-based natural resource management.
Even a minute chance of decreasing poverty should

outweighpoverty is the priority impact.
Abu Jamal 98 [Mumia, A Quiet and Deadly Violence, social and social
activist 9/19/98, http://www.mumia.nl/TCCDMAJ/quietdv.htm
It has often been observed that America is a truly violent nation, as
shown by the thousands of cases of social and communal violence
that occurs daily in the nation. Every year, some 20,000 people are
killed by others, and additional 20,000 folks kill themselves. Add to
this the non lethal violence that Americans daily inflict on each
other, and we begin to see the tracings of a nation immersed in a fever of violence. But, as remarkable, and
harrowing as this level and degree of violence is, it is, by far, not the most violent feature of living in the midst of the
We live, equally immersed, and to a deeper degree, in a

nation that condones and ignores wide-ranging "structural" violence,
of a kind that destroys human life with a breathtaking
ruthlessness. Former Massachusetts prison official and writer, Dr. James Gilligan observes; By
structural violence' I mean the increased rates of death and
disability suffered by those who occupy the bottom rungs of society,
as contrasted by those who are above them. Those excess deaths (or at least a
American empire.

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demonstrably large proportion of them) are a function of the class structure; and that structure is itself a product of
society's collective human choices, concerning how to distribute the collective wealth of the society. These are not acts of
God. I am contrasting `structural' with `behavioral violence' by which I mean the non-natural deaths and injuries that are
caused by specific behavioral actions of individuals against individuals, such as the deaths we attribute to homicide,
suicide, soldiers in warfare, capital punishment, and so on." -- (Gilligan, J., MD, Violence: Reflections On a National
This form of violence, not covered by any of the majoritarian,

is invisible to us and because of its
invisibility, all the more insidious. How dangerous is it -- really? Gilligan notes: "[E]very
fifteen years, on the average, as many people die because of relative poverty
as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused 232 million deaths; and
every single year, two to three times as many people die from
poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the
Jews over a six-year period. This is, in effect, the equivalent of an ongoing,
unending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide on
the weak and poor every year of every decade, throughout
the world." [Gillitgan, p. 196] Worse still, in a thoroughly capitalist
society, much of that violence became internalized, turned back on the
Self, because, in a society based on the priority of wealth, those who
own nothing are taught to loathe themselves, as if something is
inherently wrong with themselves, instead of the social order that
promotes this self-loathing. This intense self-hatred was
often manifested in familial violence as when the husband beats the
wife, the wife smacks the son, and the kids fight each other. This
vicious, circular, and invisible violence, unacknowledged by the
corporate media, uncriticized in substandard educational systems,
and un- understood by the very folks who suffer in its grips, feeds on
the spectacular and more common forms of violence that the system
makes damn sure -that we can recognize and must react to it. This fatal and systematic violence may be called The
Epidemic (New York: Vintage, 1996), 192.)
corporate, ruling-class protected media,
War on the Poor.It is found in every country, submerged beneath the sands of history, buried, yet ever present, as
omnipotent as death. In the struggles over the commons in Europe, when the peasants struggled and lost their battles for
their commonal lands (a precursor to similar struggles throughout Africa and the Americas), this violence was sanctified,
by church and crown, as the 'Divine Right of Kings' to the spoils of class battle. Scholars Frances Fox-Piven and Richard A
Cloward wrote, in The New Class War (Pantheon, 1982/1985): They did not lose because landowners were immune to
burning and preaching and rioting. They lost because the usurpations of owners were regularly defended by the legal
authority and the armed force of the state. It was the state that imposed increased taxes or enforced the payment of
increased rents, and evicted or jailed those who could not pay the resulting debts. It was the state that made lawful the
appropriation by landowners of the forests, streams, and commons, and imposed terrifying penalties on those who
persisted in claiming the old rights to these resources. It was the state that freed serfs or emancipated sharecroppers only
to leave them landless. (52) The "Law", then, was a tool of the powerful to protect their interests, then, as now. It was a
weapon against the poor and impoverished, then, as now. It punished retail violence, while turning a blind eye to the
The law was, and is, a tool of state

power, utilized to protect the status quo, no matter how
oppressive that status was, or is. Systems are essentially ways of
doing things that have concretized into tradition, and
custom, without regard to the rightness of those ways. No system
that causes this kind of harm to people should be allowed to remain,
based solely upon its time in existence. Systems must serve life, or
be discarded as a threat and a danger to life. Such systems must
pass away, so that their great and terrible violence passes away with
them.
wholesale violence daily done by their class masters.

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DOT Inherency Takeouts

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Roads/Highways
The recent DOT budget has funded road development
MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget will provide $305 billion over six years in funding for
road and bridge improvements and constructiona 34 percent increase
over the previous authorization. It will also simplify the highway program structure, accelerate project delivery, and realize the benefits of highway and bridge investments to the public sooner.
These investments and reforms will modernize our highway system while creating much-needed jobs.
The proposal consolidates more than

55 programs into five new programs that invest in roads most critical to
FISCAL YEAR 2013 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS 9
the National interest: the National Highway Program; Highway Safety; Livable Communities; Federal
Allocation; and, Research, Technology, and Education. It also establishes a performance-based highway
program in the critical areas of safety and state of good repair, and provides resources and authorities to
spur innovations that will shorten project delivery and accelerate the deployment of new technologies.

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Bridges
The recent DOT budget has funded road development
MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget will provide $305 billion over six years in funding for road
and bridge improvements and constructiona 34 percent increase
over the previous authorization. It will also simplify the highway program structure, accelerate project delivery, and realize the benefits of highway and bridge investments to the public sooner.
These investments and reforms will modernize our highway system while creating much-needed jobs.
FISCAL YEAR 2013 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS 9 The proposal consolidates more than 55 programs into five
new programs that invest in roads most critical to the National interest: the National Highway Program;
Highway Safety; Livable Communities; Federal Allocation; and, Research, Technology, and Education. It
also establishes a performance-based highway program in the critical areas of safety and state of good
repair, and provides resources and authorities to spur innovations that will shorten project delivery and
accelerate the deployment of new technologies.

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Transit
The recent DOT budget has funded accessible transit
programs

MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget includes $108 billion over six yearsa 105 percent
increasein funding for transit. It will prioritize projects that rebuild
and rehabilitate existing transit systems, include an important new
transit safety program, and allow transit authorities (in urbanized
areas of 200,000 or more in population) to temporarily use formula
funds to cover operating costs in limited circumstances.

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High Speed Rail

The recent DOT budget has funded High Speed Rail for
the future

MB.pdf, KTG
The Budget proposes $47 billion over six years to continue
construction of a National high-speed rail network. It will place
passenger rail on equal footing with other surface transportation
programs; include funding for both Amtrak and new core
express, regional, and emerging corridors; and keep the
country on track toward a system that gives 80 percent of Americans
access to a passenger rail system featuring high-speed service within 25 years. This is
an important step in a long-term investment plan to develop this critical transportation alternative

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Roadway Crash Safety

The recent DOT budget has funded roadway crash safety
systems

MB.pdf , KTG
The DOT Surface Transportation Reauthorization proposal will
provide $7.5 billion to the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration to promote seatbelt use, get drunk drivers off the
road, and ensure that traffic fatality numbers continue dropping
from current historic lows. Within this amount, $330 million is provided for the Department
of Transportations ongoing campaign against Americas distracted driving epidemic. In addition, the
proposal will almost double the investment in highway safety infrastructure funding, providing $17 billion
to Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) safety construction programs.

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Rural Infrastructure
The recent DOT budget has funded rural developments.
MB.pdf , KTG
The Budget makes the investments that we need to strengthen
Americas small towns and rural communities. Increased highway
funding will expand access to jobs, education, and health care.
Innovative policy solutions will ensure that people can more easily
connect with regional and local transit optionsand from one mode
of transportation to another.

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NextGen/AIP
The recent DOT budget has funded rural developments.
MB.pdf , KTG
Immediate Transportation Investment: To spur job growth and allow states to initiate sound multiyear
investments, the Budget assumes in FY 2012 a $50 billion economic boost above current law spending to
Of
this amount, $3 billion is for FAA programs ($1 billion for NextGen and $2 billion for
Grants-in-Aid to Airports). The $1 billion in funding to advance NextGen will
support multiple infrastructure projects and other investments that
are designed to accelerate NextGen capabilities. The request
includes $225 million for a new air traffic control facility for the
future which will fully leverage NextGen capabilities to improve
traffic flow, ensure user community cost savings, reduce the
environmental impact of aviation, and reduce operating costs.
jump start investments for highway, highway safety, transit, passenger rail, and aviation activities.

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NIB
NIB was funded in 2013 budget.
Jeff Zients, Acting Director of the Presidential Office of Management and
Budget, February 13, 2012, The 2013 Budget,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/02/13/2013-budget, KTG
To create thousands of jobs and modernize a critical foundation of
our economic growth, the Budget also invests in a 21st century
infrastructure. These investments include a six-year, $476 billion surface
transportation reauthorization bill thats expanded to included inter-city
passenger rail, and that is fully paid for through current user-financed
mechanisms and savings from ending the war in Iraq and winding down
operations in Afghanistan. They also include the creation of a National
Infrastructure Bank to fund projects of national importance, and the
building of a next-generation, wireless broadband network.

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Truck/Bus Safety
The recent DOT budget has funded truck and bus safety
MB.pdf , KTG
The Budget will dedicate $4.8 billion to the Federal Motor Carrier
Safety Administration (FMCSA) to ensure that commercial truck and
bus companies maintain high operational standards, while
removing high-risk truck and bus companies and their drivers from
operating.

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TIFIA
The recent DOT budget has invested into TIFIA.
MB.pdF ,KTG
Federal infrastructure loans enable state and local governments to significantly leverage federal dollars
The budget provides $3 billion for the

Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA)
program over six years. The TIFIA program leverages each $1 of Federal funds into $10 of
credit assistance which supports $30 in transportation infrastructure investment. Therefore our
$3 billion TIFIA investment is expected to produce up to $90 billion
in transportation infrastructure projects.
when financing transportation infrastructure.

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Terrorism FL
1. Not an existential threat because no motivationand
even if there is motivation nothing can solve it because it
is ideological.
John Mueller, May 2012, Department of Political Science at Ohio State
University with a focus on terrorism and national security and is a Senior
Fellow at the Cato Institute, Terrorism in not an Apocalyptic Threat, On
Breakthrough Institute,
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/debates/planes-trains-and-carbombs-a-breakthrough-debate/terrorism-is-not-an-apocalyptic-threat/, KTG
However, I would have appreciated some effort to assess the threat in quantitative terms. Breakthrough
at present rates, an American's chance of

being killed by a terrorist is about one in 3.5 million per year. Or one
might note that the number of people killed worldwide outside of
war zones since 2001 by Islamist extremists of all shapes and
varieties is a few hundred per year. This number is regrettable, of
course. But it scarcely presents an existential or apocalyptic threat.
The conclusion that terrorists seek by their actions to "grow support
for their cause so they can one day gain political power and govern
territory," leaves out, or actually seems to ignore, a key consideration in their motivation. In
almost all domestic terrorism cases, the overwhelming driving force -- besides perhaps
"displaying self-relevance" as Breakthrough suggests at one point -- was simmering, and more
commonly boiling, outrage at American foreign policy. This was inspired by
the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan in particular and also by the country's support for Israel
in the Palestinian conflict. Religion was a key part of the consideration for
most. However, it was not that they had a burning urge to spread Sharia law or to establish caliphates -indeed, few of the potential terrorists would likely even be able to spell
either word. Rather, it was the desire to protect their religion against what was commonly seen to be
might have noted, for example, that,
a concentrated war upon it in the Middle East by the United States government and military.
2. Terrorists cant acquire nuclear weapons and WMD

terrorism is in decline.

http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/journal/debates/planes-trains-and-carbombs-a-breakthrough-debate/terrorism-is-not-an-apocalyptic-threat, KTG
There is a great deal I agree with in Breakthrough Institute's report, "Planes, Trains, and Car Bombs." In
sober and
thoughtful dismemberment of the exceedingly popular notion that
terrorists are likely to become capable of producing nuclear and
other scary "weapons of mass destruction" is most welcome. And so
is the observation that what remains of the Islamist extremist
movement is very much in decline.
particular I salute Breakthrough's efforts to supply an updated threat assessment. The

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3. Even if terrorism exists, there is no way to solve or

prevent it.
Therefore, given that there is a near-infinite number of potential
targets, there is no good way to predict potential targets unless you
can get, and stay, inside the mind of the specific would-be terrorist.
A would be bomber targeted a mall in Rockford, Illinois because it
was nearby, and terrorist plotters in Los Angeles in 2005 drew up a
list of targets that were all within a 20-mile radius of their shared
apartment, some of which didn't exist.
4. No nuclear, biological, or chemical terrorism.


None of the thirty-four plots included any credible plan for using
weapons of mass destruction, either. The majority would have used conventional bombs or
improvised explosive devises (IEDs). Another three would have used larger truck bombs. Seven of the plots
would have used conventional assault weapons and two would have attacked with conventional grenades.
In another two cases, plotters hoped to get their hands on a grenade launcher or a stinger missile launcher
promised disingenuously by an FBI informant. And, in two cases, terror suspects were alleged to have
they had no access to the bombs

or the materials to make them.42 This pattern of attacking and
plotting against symbolic buildings, transportation targets, and
other government assets with conventional guns and explosives has
held not just in the United States, but throughout the world . With the
concocted schemes to use dirty bombs even though
exception of Iraqi insurgent and sectarian attacks (which most experts would not classify as terrorism, but
insurgency) on oil infrastructure, roads and bridges, and some water infrastructure, hirabi attacks have
targeted military, government, and transportation targets and some brand name hotels frequented by
Virtually all of these attacks have been carried out using

explosives and assault weapons. No nuclear or radiological attacks
have been attempted. No biological attacks have been attempted.
No large-scale chemical attacks have been attempted.44 45 To understand
westerners.43
why hirabi terrorists have pursued particular attack strategies and what sorts of attacks they are likely to
pursue in the future, we must first understand what they are trying to do. What are their overall goals?
What strategies are they employing to achieve them? And how do some targets and some styles of attack
advance those strategies better than others? Answers to these questions begin to explain why hirabi
terrorists have not been more lethal in the past, and even suggest that their present and future efforts
may be significantly hampered by political changes beyond their control.
5. Alt cause to any kind of response to terrorism

psychological responses and singling out of groups
prevents effective response

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THE TARGETED AUDIENCE: HOW INTERGROUP PSYCHOLOGY PRODUCES UNHELPFUL RESPONSES TO
hirabis have been especially poor at executing their latest attempted attacks
have provoked precisely the kinds of polarizing reactions they hoped for. When Farouk
Abdulmutallab tried and failed to down a jetliner on Christmas Day, the US government
responded by singling out people from Muslim-majority countries
for increased scanning at airports around the world. After Faisal Shahzad lit up
TERRORISM Though
failing to detonate weapons in all of their last three attempts they
his dud of a truck bomb in Times Square, policymakers and talking heads raised a fuss about an interfaith
(but primarily Muslim) cultural center to be erected blocks away from the site of the former World Trade
some
American lawmakers called for legislation preventing Sharia law
from supplanting the American Constitution . Throughout all these events, a
fringe group of pundits claimed the current presidential
administration was coddling or participating in an Islamic conspiracy
to take over the United States.64 While many Americans saw this
Islamophobia as unseemly or ridiculous, many others easily
participated in the polarization hirabis sought to inspire . Polls measuring
Center towers. As al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula sent printer cartridge bombs to Detroit,
Americans support for the construction of a multi-faith cultural center blocks from Ground Zero quickly
shifted in the fall of 2010 as a few bloggers characterized the center as a Victory Mosque intended to
taunt the United States. Attempts by the centers imam to explain his record of, and commitment to,
building interfaith coalitions did not neutralize opponents beliefs.
Muslims cannot
They insisted that

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Full Extensions
Extend first piece of Mueller 12 evtheres no more
motivation to terrorism because the US is withdrawing
from wars in the Middle East, and its not an existential
threat. Even if there is motivation, it is ideological and
unstoppable. Aka you cant destroy Christianity by
bombing a church, and you cant destroy terrorism by
stopping a few terrorists.
Extend second Mueller 12 cardTerrorism in on the
decline and theres no wat to acquire WMD and nuclear
weapons.
Extend third Mueller 12 cardif a terrorist attack starts,
no security systems can stop itthere are infinite
numbers of targets for us to calculate.
Extend Adams, Nordhaus and Shellenburgno nuclear or
biological terrornever happened and never will
Extend second Adams et al cardan alt cause to terror
damage is psychological damage to minds (like PTSD) or
because of racism due to terrorist attacks.

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No Threat to Infrastructure **MUST READ

No threat to infrastructure at allterrorists wont target,
no attacks so far, and at most only causes relocations.
In addition to raising concerns about a range of weapons hirabis are not likely
to use, authors have also raised concerns about various classes of
American targets that terrorists have shown little interest in
attacking.187 The reasons why airplane attacks are so sought after
and why they so successfully generate fear (sometimes even when
they are not well-executed) are also the reasons why other targets are
so undesirable to terrorists. Despite a great deal of DHS attention
on infrastructure attacks, for instance, the United States has not
suffered a single such attack .188 Whereas transportation (especially
commercial aviation) attacks strike existential fear into the hearts of
Americans, attacks on infrastructure show the public that terrorists
do not intend to kill them directly.189 In a worst-case scenario,
sabotage of some citys critical infrastructure might force significant
numbers to relocate or significantly alter their daily routines for a
time, but this may be more stress- and anger- inducing than
terrorizing.

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No Nuclear Terror
No nuclear terrorno ingredients, no state supporters,
IAEA and US deterrence, Mutually Assured Destruction,
Radioactivity, and plutonium shorages, and nuclear plant
security all determost recent ev and supported by
credible authors.

Only a handful of countries with industrialized economies have ever
accomplished the task of acquiring and assembling the ingredients
for a nuclear weapon. While some worry that states might simply
hand over those hard won nuclear devices to terrorists, this is
highly unlikely. The IAEA and the US government have developed
tools of nuclear forensics that allow them to trace the origin of
bombs even after detonation.167 168 This effectively places a return
address on a nuclear attack, which, by the logic of mutually
assured destruction, deters states from relinquishing control of their
nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, states lending nuclear weapons would have little reason to trust that terrorists would keep VII. A LIMITED
REPERTOIRE their secret or do with the weapon what they promised. Terrorists could easily blackmail or threaten any donor state for more weapons or power. T
he
first they would need to procure

significant quantities of highly enriched uranium (HEU or U-235) or
plutonium.169 The latter is difficult to come by, is highly radioactive
(easily setting off passive sensors and sickening those who handle it), and must be prepared inside nuclear
reactors that are heavily guarded. And building a plutonium bomb, because o f its sophisticated
architecture and pluto- niums dangerous radioactive instability, is extremely difficult even for nuclear
physicists and skilled engineers. Terrorists hopes for a nuclear weapon, therefore, rest on simpler uranium bombs that,
other way terrorists could get their hands on a nuclear weapon is to build one. But
while still requiring rare technical expertise, may use a less complex gun mechanism January 2012 57 The Science of Security (which fires a piece of HEU into a
larger chunk of the same material) to create a violent nuclear chain reaction.170 But there are multiple hurdles to clear before even beginning the complex process of
terrorists would need to collect HEU
creating such a gun-bomb. First,

. There are two paths by which they could do
this. They could gather a great deal of uranium-238 (which can be mined out of the ground) or reactor grade low enriched uranium and then build technically precise and
powerful centrifuges able to spin the fissile U-235 to the top. Those centrifuges, Libyan, Iraqi, and Iranian scientists can testify, require industrial scale operations that are
, multiple authors agree, is not at all likely to

be successfully tread by terrorists.171 The only other path terrorists
could take to create a uranium gun bomb would require that they
beg, borrow, or steal HEU from a corrupt employee of some nuclear facility. But, current international nonproliferation efforts make that
incredibly precise and very difficult to replicate. This path
method of procurement exceedingly difficult even for well-financed sovereign states. Any illegal sale of fissionable material would launch an exhaustive manhunt focusing
on the relatively few people able to access the material. Such attempted illegal sales of nuclear material were discovered eighteen times between 1993 and 2007 as states
of the former Soviet Union reacted slowly to the need to secure fissionable material. The interdicted sales (if successful) would have only resulted in the transfer of less
than 17.5 pounds of HEU and less than 1 pound of plutonium. Even the most generous estimates of terrorists technical ability and luck would require them to gather
around 50 pounds of HEU to construct a sophisticated and efficient gun-bomb,172 twice as much if their design were simpler.173 As Vahid Majidi, head of VII. A LIMITED
REPERTOIRE the FBIs WMD directorate has recently concluded, the prospect of nuclear terrorism is very exciting, always good to see in a movie setting...but
havent seen a credible approach.174
we

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No Radiological or Dirty Bombs

No radiological terror or dirty bombsrays, easy defense,
no blast radius,
If terrorists cannot access enough HEU to create a nuclear bomb,
they might be tempted to use what little uranium they might acquire
to construct a dirty bomb. Such a weapon uses conventional
explosives to disperse radioactive material into a larger area. Dirty
bombs are only sometimes considered WMDs in the counterterrorism literature since their effects are not
Deaths by radiation
depend heavily on the type of material used. Gamma-emitting materials like
likely to greatly outstrip those of conventional bombs in most cases.
caesium-137 (often used for radiation therapy against cancer) are more destructive to human tissues than
alpha or beta-emitting materials like uranium-235 and strontium-90 (which have several other medical
uses). Alpha parti- The Science of Security 58 January 2012 cles can be blocked with a single piece of
paper, while gamma particles require a few centimeters of lead to shield against them. easy to execute
The containment dome at Indian Point Nuclear Facility often represented
can
withstand the impact To the extent that radiological weapons are terrorizing, the terror
appears to be based mostly on ignorance of the basic nuclear
physics of radioactive dosing. While people within a hundred meters
of a dirty bomb might die of a high radioactive dose if they did not
perish from the effects of the blast itself most of the people
farther away or shielded by buildings would suffer only low doses of
radiation comparable to those we experience on a particularly sunny
day.175 Fears of radiological weapons, therefore, mostly come down to fear of fear (i.e., concern that a
as some believe.
as a prime target for terrorist attacks because it is only an hours drive from New York City
panic will ensue). The long-term economic impact of such a bomb, also cited as a major concern, depends
on the half-life of the material used. The radioactive effects of a radium dirty bomb, for instance, would
fully dissipate to safe levels (even at the epicenter) within a matter of days. A uranium dirty bomb, on the
other hand would require significant clean-up efforts since the half-life of uranium-235 is over 700 million
years. Some authors, especially after the Fukushima disaster, have also raised concerns that terrorists
would attack a nuclear power plant in order to spread radioactive material over a population.176

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No Chem/Biological Terror
Chem Terror impossibleno quanities, no industrial use,
suspicion, small-scale, quick neutralization, and weather
conditions.
The use of chemical weapons by non-state groups is rare . Aum Shinrikyo,
the apocalyptic Japanese cult, executed the first non-state chemical attack against the public on the Tokyo
Metro in 1995. Though hundreds were traumatized by their release of sarin gas in the confined space, only
a dozen died. Aum Shinrikyos middling success points to some of the major challenges of creating and
using chemical weapons. First, compiling the ingredients for chemical weapons is difficult given
surveillance and enforcement protocols. Dual- use chemicals like chlorine, phosgene, and hydrogen
cyanide are readily available for licensed industrial users. But DHSs CFATS regime ensures that only welltrained, patient, and lucky terrorist operatives would have any chance at orchestrating the loading of the
chemicals and pathogens, like the G- and V-nerve agents,

are difficult and dangerous to produce,
especially in large quantities of sufficient quality to be used as
weapons. And because their precursors do not have industrial uses,
they are very difficult to procure even for the skilled conartist/terrorist. quantities to do significant harm would be difficult without arousing suspicion.
Because it is so difficult to acquire or produce the chemicals and/or
effectively disperse them into a crowd that is both captive and
accessible, large-scale attacks are not likely to be attempted when other
means are available. Small-scale attacks would almost certainly be less
effective than those using conventional weapons and even Rolf Mowatt-Larssen agrees that hirabis
chemicals undetected. Other
incapacitating agents, and the toxin ricin
are not likely to execute such attacks.180 While an AK-47 is able to kill with the pull of a trigger it is also
able to deter counterattacks. A terrorist employing a container with a spray nozzle, on the other hand,
could quickly and easily be neutralized by anyone armed with a gas mask, a weapon, and/or a good
chemical and biological attacks

do not fit the targeting schemas of terrorists because they lack the
psychological impact and media cache of bombs and guns and are
amount of courage. Also, as we have suggested above,
incompatible with hirabi narratives of jihadist heroism. Aum Shinrikyo was rare in its use of chemicals. Its
leader, Shoko Asahara, was said to be obsessed with poisons. But even his group, incredibly well-funded
(with around $300 million) when it attempted ten separate chemical terror attacks, could not manage to
kill more than a dozen people, much less bring on the dark apocalypse of Asaharas nightmares. Aum
If terrorists
could create or acquire such toxins, weaponizing them presents
other major hurdles. Some chemicals, like chlorine, are volatile,
meaning they evaporate at typical pressures and temperatures. They
Shinrikyos failures, despite all their attempts and financial and scientific resources,
do not necessarily require sophisticated dispersal mechanisms to be effective; they can simply be spilled
and their gases can be carried by the wind. But most, and the most deadly, must be dispersed at a fairly
specific particle size, VII. A LIMITED REPERTOIRE or aerosolized, to reach the most vulnerable parts of
the human respiratory system.178 Aerosolization is a difficult process that requires a technical knowledge
of fluid dynamics and the coagulative properties of the material being used. Or, if the toxic agent is a
solid in its weaponized form, it must be ground down to the correct particle size and protected from static
charges that can cause it to agglomerate. In any case, the dispersal of chemical weapons is disrupted by
In
the most ideal weather conditions, deadly chemicals could
potentially be aerosolized over crowds from some upwind building or
a crop-dusting plane, but moving large enough reveal how
even mild wind, (too much or too little) humidity, air pollution, ultraviolet light, or excessive heat.179

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unreliable and inefficient chemical weapons are compared to bombs

and guns, the time-tested tools of terrorism.

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No Resource Terrorism
No Resource Terrorism (For Dams: No threat to water
resourcesno attacks, city security systems, and
rerouting of water)

Attacks on food and water supplies are also sub-optimal for
terrorists. They may result in the destruction of many plants and animals, great economic losses, and
even several human deaths, but they are very difficult to spin into a heroic
narrative. Those harmed most by such attacks would likely be the
chronically under- nourished like the children of the poor, not a
target population many people can sym- pathize with harming. Even
the die-hard terrorists willing to risk backlash with such an attack
are not likely to be energized by killing with poisons when they could
kill with guns and explosives. In majority-Muslim countries, like most other societies,
poisoning is generally viewed as a dishonorable form of fighting, one not likely to inspire support much less
an influx of young recruits seeking adventure or martyrdom. VII. A LIMITED REPERTOIRE Such
attacks are not easy to execute either. Dangerously contaminating a

water source like a reservoir or lake, for instance, requires very
large amounts of hazardous material. Depending on the size of the reservoir, it is
unlikely that fewer than several dump-truck loads of any hazardous material could significantly toxify a
Instead, terrorists would need to dump contaminates

into a main water pipeline headed into a city. These lines are sealed,
though, and in almost all modern population centers, sensors (designed
to protect safety and manage the pressure of the water supply) will alert water department
officials if they are tampered with or lose pressure . Any subsequent
investigation could quickly turn up evidence of foul play and
authorities would have some time to reroute water supplies, warn
the public, and take other remediary action.190 For attacks on infrastructure or
food and water supplies to be counted as successes, terrorist groups must be able to
explain to potential recruits how the attacks advance the glory of
their cause while undermining the popularity of the governments
that mitigate the damage and characterize the attacks as cowardly
and barbaric. Such sabotage, while often useful for disrupting supply lines in force-on-force wars, is
citys water supply.
not likely to accomplish much for a strategy attempting to rally support.

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No Cyber Terror
No cyber-terroroffline operation, no computer
engineers, no motivation.
The latest national security vulnerability to occupy Americas
political class grows out of the countrys economic and logistical
dependence on the Internet and cloud computing. In June 2011, President
Obama released a report outlining his International Strategy Against Cyber Warfare. While his report
focuses particular attention on cyber threats from other nation-states, specifically China, some security
Many
agree that the sorts of denial-of-service attacks against credit card
companies and banks executed by the group Anonymous in support of
embattled WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange have the potential, if widespread and
long-running enough, to disrupt the American economy at a time when it is
experts and pundits have also expressed concerns about cyber-terrorism by hirabi militants.
already underperforming. The use of the Stuxnet virus against Irans nuclear facilities also demonstrated
that well-placed hacks can warp and destroy automation processes commonly used throughout energy
however, since most

computer networks managing such processes operate offline,
meaning that hacks could be prevented by simply controlling access
to systems upload portals. (The Stuxnet virus, apparently, was uploaded into Iranian
machines via a portable USB drive.) Whatever the threat of cyber-attacks may be, there are no
indicators suggesting that terrorists are particularly interested in
executing them. Though terrorists spend a fair amount of time in
internet chat rooms and have a few relatively talented hackers able
to mask the IP addresses and locations of users, they do not appear
to have recruited the sorts of sophisticated computer engineers
who can threaten the viability of key cyber-infrastructure or internet
nodes. Such attacks do not fit the modus operandi of the terror
movement, either. There is nothing particularly inspiring about a
denial-of-service attack. And even a more consequential attack on
infrastructure (if it could be accomplished) sends the wrong signal to hirabi recruits.
and industry sectors. Fears of such attacks are probably slightly overblown,
Hirabi leaders want to ingratiate themselves into the pantheon of world historical figures by attacking the
monuments of American power as they did on 9/11, or by marauding its revered and feared soldiers, as
they have done in zones of occupation or directed followers like Nidal Hassan to do. But tinkering with
computer machines that disrupt internet access or manufacturing processes inspires little sanguinity
among the militants who comprise the vast majority of their movement. The profile of the hirabi
movement is, simply put, not that of the hacker set.

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A2: 9/11 Proves

Stop using 9/11 as an exampleimproved security and
changing insurgent dynamics prevent attacks again.
But so far, no terrorist group anywhere in the world has been able to
execute an attack even a quarter as deadly as the 9/11 attacks which
killed nearly 3000 people. And none have deployed the massively
destructive CBRN weapons of our nightmares. Security obstacles,
which we addressed above, have played a part in preventing groups
from using WMDs, but few non-state militant groups have ever had
the money, safe haven, and personnel to begin weapons
development programs. The al Qaeda Central organization of the late 1990s (before the
invasion of Afghanistan in 2001- 2002) is an exception. But are hirabi groups even the arch-hirabi group,
al Qaeda interested in deploying such weapons?

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A2: Airplanes Vulnerable

One in 20 million that airplanes will be targeted
airplanes are safe and no domestic aviation threats.

Breakthrough's conclusion that "airplanes are the most highly valued
targets of terrorist attacks" is less than fully convincing . As the table in
section II makes clear, no US-based terrorist has ever even considered
airplanes as a target except for one group made up of addled petty criminals, one of them an
illiterate schizophrenic. At any rate, it might be useful to note that one's
chance of being on an airliner that experiences a terrorist attack is
about one in 20 million. (Breakthrough's generally excellent earlier report, "Counterterrorism
Since 9/11," sensibly recommends the development of standard metrics for evaluating counterterrorism
without doing so and without considering that airlines

might already be kinda safe, rather impulsively insists that even
more money should be thrown at screening passengers.)
measures, but then,

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A2 Antarctic Science
Antarctic Science cut now
Shen 12 (Helen Shen, senior graduate student in Neuroscience Program at
UC San Francisco, 16 Nov 2012, http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/11/fiscalcliff-overshadows-us-antarctic-science.html), KTG

As US national science agencies brace for sweeping budget cuts in
2013, some experts warn that research efforts in Antarctica are
poised to suffer devastating damage. The 8% across-the-board
reductions, set to take effect in January, are likely to draw heavily from scientific
research and spare infrastructure and logistical operations that support experiments in the unforgiving
polar environment. You still have to have an ice-breaker if you have one scientist; you still have to heat
the buildings if you have one scientist, said Norman Augustine, the former chief executive of the
Lockheed Martin Corporation who led a July 2012 report on the US Antarctic Program, as he testified in a
15 November hearing of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. Other witnesses
The impact on
science, said Augustine, would be many times the 8%. Legislators held the
included Subra Suresh, the director of the US National Science Foundation.
hearing to discuss the report More and better science in Antarctica through increased logistical
effectiveness by the US Antarctic Program Blue Ribbon Panel a panel headed by Augustine and
convened by the Office of Science and Technology and the National Science Foundation. The report
suggests that the US Antarctic Program may already need to cut some research efforts in the near future
to support crucial repairs and upgrades to dilapidated infrastructure and transport systems. At present,
science receives 20% of the program budget, and logistics including specialized planes, vessels and
buildings receives 80%. Among other cuts, the report recommends 6% reductions in science
expenditures over the next four years to help fund the improvements. The scientific community worries
about the price of logistics, said Warren Zapol, an anaesthesiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital in
Boston, who has studied how Antarctic seals hold their breath for extended periods. They worry that
logistics will get 100% of it and there wont be any science.

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1NC -- Defense
Asian Pivot wont happen-a) No constituency support
Robert E. Kelly, March 29, 2012, Why the U.S. wont pivot to Asia anytime
soon,; Kelly is a Senior Analyst at Wikistrat and a prof. of polisci at Pusan
National University, South Korea, runs the Asian Security Blog,
http://asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com/2012/03/09/the-us-will-not-pivotmuch-to-asia-1-we-dont-really-want-to/?preview=true, KTG
So all this says Asias important, but the trends of US domestic politics run strongly against this. I think the Asian
pivot for the US wont take off, at least not for another decade: 1. Who is the constituency for a
US shift to Asia? Who in America actually cares about this region enough to
drive a major realignment away from long-standing US interests in
Europe and the Middle East? I guess the business community cares; they pushed PMFN for China 15
years ago, but theyre souring on China today because of its relentless mercantilism. Perhaps Asian-Americans would like
to see this, in the same way that Hispanic-Americans impact US south-of-the-border policy. But there arent that many
Asian-Americans (4-5%), and they dont strike me as an organized voice loudly demanding this pivot. Perhaps foreign
policy elites want this, but to my mind the think-tank/op-ed pages set (AEI, WSJ, NYT, Fox, Heritage) still seem more
interested in the Middle East when is the last time you read an op-ed about US basing in Japan or Korea, or US CT
The relevant Asian security stuff regarding the pivot

is still scarcely on the radar of the regular media (compared to the coverage of US
domestic politics or the Middle East). Finally, does Obamas electoral coalition care about or want this? As a rule
of thumb, the less wealthy you are, the less you care about far-off
issues like foreign policy, so its unlikely that the underprivileged
and youth who helped Obama win want or even care about this. While
cooperation with Indonesia?
college educated whites, who also broke for Obama, likely support this, the rest of the Democratic coalition traditionally
focuses on domestic issues like education, social mobility, the courts, redistribution and safety nets, etc. Maybe labor
unions care a bit, but their trade concerns are dated and generic, rather than Asia-specific, and they probably want less
the Republican Party, which I think worries about

really cares about the Middle East. Remember that
something like 30-40% of Americans claim to have had a born-again experience. For them, Israel is,
easily, Americas most important ally. Their post-9/11 Kulturkamp with Islam is a central
not more engagement with Asia. But most importantly,
foreign policy a lot more than the Dems,
value; they know that worshipping Allah is blasphemous. In that fetid Christianist mindset, what are Korea or China but
factory floors far away who make stuff for Walmart? Asia doesnt activate or mobilize these Jacksonian-Christianist
voters. When Santorum said in the New Hampshire debate that Irans nuclear program is the most important issue in US
foreign policy, he was channeling probably one-third of the electorate. Romney and Gingrich too discuss Iran constantly
and pledge no daylight with Israel. By contrast, what does the Tea Party know or care about China or India? At least Islam
looks like a heathen analogue to Christianity (a book, similar godhead, prophets) to the US right, but what to make of
Hinduism, Confucianism, Shintoism, Taoism? Does anyone really believe Joe Tea-partier cares a wit about that stuff? Its all
about culture and religion to the base of the American right these days, and Asia is like outer space to those voters.
Where is the ideology, the excitement, the fervor that created the wild paranoias like WWIV or the long war regarding
In short, the Democrats dont really care about

Asia one way or another, besides a vague sense that China is
cheating, and Republicans want to keep the focus on the Middle
East.
Islam, in regard to Asia? Zippo
b) Alliances in East Asia and offshore balancing fill in

3. The Middle East is characterized by so many nondemocracies that
the US must be heavily invested (at least to meet current US goals oil, Israel, counterterrorism).

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Katzenstein noted this; America has no strong subordinate anchor-state in the region (like Germany in Europe and Japan in
Asia). This is why the GOP particularly emphasizes an enduring, semi-imperial presence in the Gulf. Besides tiny Israel, we
dont have the friends necessary for things like the dual containment (Iran and Iraq) of the 90s, and or the Iraq war of the
By contrast in Asia, we have lots of allies and

semi-friends who are strong and functional Japan, Australia, Korea,
and Taiwan most obviously with improving relations with India and
Vietnam too. Now, if we are smart or maybe just because we are broke we can push a lot of the costs of our
goals onto them. Specifically, much of the pivot has been assumed to be targeted
at China. But why should we encircle, contain, or otherwise provoke
China, when the frontline states should be it doing it first? In other
words, we dont have to pivot toward Asia unless China threatens to
invade everybody, because places like India, Korea, and Japan will
work hard to build and maintain a multipolar equilibrium. They dont
want to be dominated by China, and they will suffer a lot more than
we will if China becomes the regional hegemon. So we can hover in
the background, offshore, over the horizon, as we always have.
Given the strength of liberal democracy in Asia (unlike the ME),
there is no need for us to be there in strength. This is why I dont think the
pivot language is helpful, because its not necessary. We can do what we
have always done provide an offshore balance that keeps the peace
2000s. So we have to do it all ourselves.
and allows trade so we can all buy cheap crap at Walmart. So we dont need to do anything new; lets just keep doing the
same. And lets not get neo-conned into believing that Asia cant manage its own affairs unless bound to lead America
is front-and-center with its hands in everything managing everyones choices. Thats the kind of paranoid pseudoomipotence that got us mired in the Middle East for the last 20 years. We can pivot if we must, but lets not do it because
of our impatient, we-have-to-run-all-big-issues-in-the-world foreign policy establishment. We dont need a pivot, unless
that is being used as rhetorical cover to justify escaping from the ME (which is not a bad idea actually, if theres no other
way).
c) No fiscal sustainability.

4. Finally, I think the Asia pivot will be less than we think, simply because the
US cant afford it anymore. It should be pretty obvious to everyone
that the US needs to spend less, and that money which could fund domestic entitlements is going
to defense instead. The obvious opportunity cost of buying aircraft carriers
to semi-contain China is cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and Social
Security. (Defense, plus M/M/SS, comprise around 70% of the US budget now.) The pivot is a classic guns vs butter
trade-off. In the 1990s, as we reached the zenith of US dominance over the ME after the Gulf War, we could afford it
because the Cold War was over, the US economy boomed in the 90s, and the US budget gap was healing. But in the
2000s, W just borrowed to maintain and expand US dominance. And now, post-Great Recession, American debt is reaching
given the size of China, the expense of a pivot-cumcontainment would be astronomical. I suppose we could try it; wed have allied assistance that
we didnt have in the ME for dual containment. But still, China is so big, it is hard to
imagine a major US build-up that wouldnt cost huge sums that just
arent there anymore. It will become more and more obvious to the median voter in the next 20 years
crisis levels. So,
that domestic entitlements are suffering to fund the continuing post-9/11 US military expansion. I dont think Americans
will choose guns over butter (aircraft carriers instead of checks for grandma) if forced, and Ron Pauls candidacy is proving
there is an growing constituency for less war, less

basing, less military spending. This, plus the Democratic coalitions general disinterest in the
that even within the GOP,
pivot, will handicap any effort to borrow yet further to fund an Asia shift.

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2NC- No Focus
The pivot focuses on the wrong countries
Joshua Kurlantzick, November 12 2012, The Moral and Strategic
Blindspot in Obamas Pivot to Asia CFR Fellow for Southeast Asia, scholar at
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace;
http://www.cfr.org/southeast-asia/moral-strategic-blindspot-obamas-pivotasia/p29527, KTG
The enthusiasm in Washington for the "pivot" has gone much too far,
however. It's true that Southeast Asian nations like Myanmar, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, are
eager for closer cooperation with the United States to counter China's perceived rise. But the Obama
administration has been so eager to reciprocate that its has failed to give those countries' governments,
Some of the countries that

Washington has been dealing with as part of its outreach don't merit
any suspicion. Australia has a long democratic tradition, and the
Philippines, Singapore, and Malaysia are all "flawed" democracies by
the standards of Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit. Vietnam, though not a
democracy, has a well-disciplined military that does not, by and large,
commit massive abuses against its own population. But the Obama
and especially their militaries, the scrutiny they deserve.
administration has also engaged with much seamier political actors, including regimes in Cambodia,
Thailand, Myanmar, and Laos, where the military has often dominated politics. In some sense,
engagement with unsavory governments was unavoidable as part of

the "pivot": Washington doesn't choose the countries that surround China. But it's not just grand
strategy motivating this engagement; some of the administration's decisions in making its headlong rush
to Asia aren't justified by cold strategic calculus. Rather, there seems to be a strong belief among some
administration officials that the U.S. military has vast untapped power as a diplomatic actor. Indeed, a lot is
now riding on the Pentagon's ability to change the habits and culture of its foreign counterparts, and thus
Washington will soon establish

military-to-military ties with Myanmar, whose armed forces contain battalions
accused of some of the worst crimes against humanity on record . In Cambodia, the
administration has started conducted small-scale joint exercises and
to make them more reliable long-term allies.
providing training to Cambodian forces from U.S. Special Forces. The U.S. has also started exchanging
defense attaches with Laosone of the world's most closed societiesfor the first time in thirty years, and
has started to provide some military education programs for Lao soldiers. And in Thailand, the U.S. is
there is
little reason to believe that these militaries will cease their abuses
of human rights, or that they would support broader U.S. interests
over what's required to keep themselves firmly entrenched in power .
conducting massive joint exercises, and working toward joint command operations. But
For the Cambodian government, which has a history of assassinating domestic opponents, the recent trend
lines are all downward: Over the past five years, according to Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International,
Freedom House, and the State Department's own human rights reports, the human rights situation in
Cambodia has deteriorated, with increasing threats to and murders of activists, journalists, and other
government opponents. This has continued even as the U.S. military has paid for the sons of the country's
ruler, Hun Sen, to attend West Point, according to a report in the Washington Post. In Myanmar, it's true
that the government has, since 2010, undertaken dramatic reforms that have seen Aung San Suu Kyi leave
house arrest and join Parliament, and space open up dramatically for civil society, opposition politics, and
free media. Yet the Myanmar military remains highly repressive and it is hard to tell whether it is even
under the control of the civilian president, Thein Sein. Several human rights groups, including Human
Rights Watch, have noted that Myanmar's security forces have helped to instigate, or turned a blind eye to,
violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Arakan State, resulting in 90,000 people forced from their
homes and at least 200 killed in the past six months. Meanwhile, the military has ramped up a brutal war
against an ethnic militia called the Kachin Independence Army over the past year. The Myanmar military
has been accused by local monitoring groups and international human rights groups of using forced labor,
summary executions, and wanton shelling in its campaign in Kachin State. Thailand and Laos are little
better. Though Laos is one of the most closed countries in the world, thus making it hard to come upon
reliable statistics, activists who have dared stand up to the repressive Lao military regime have been
known to simply vanish. And in Thailand, which has had 18 coups or attempted coups in its modern

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history, the security forces only two years ago gunned down at least 80 civilian protesters in the streets of
Bangkok, not hesitating to transform the Thai capital into a smoking ruin of a free-fire zone. At the same
time, in the deep south of Thailand, where a separatist insurgency rages, the military has been accused of
Whatever the Pentagon's ability to

transform these regimes, it's worth noting that they do not even
provide the strategic benefits to the U.S. that would justify such
cooperation. Some U.S. officials warn that, without closer American
engagement, Cambodia might be "lost" to China , which already is Phnom Penh's
disappearances, torture, and summary executions.
biggest donor and investor, giving Cambodia some $500 million in soft loans two months ago. Laos could
also plausibly tilt towards China, which provides extensive training for Lao soldiers, and is probably now
Laos' biggest donor (though no one knows for sure). But even if Cambodia and Laos tilted heavily toward
Not as long as the United

States has strong ties to the more democratic countries in the
region; the efficacy of the pivot doesn't depend on its unanimity in
the region.
China, would that be a serious blow to America's presence in Asia?

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2NC- Ext: Too Expensive

Pivot will failsequester, DOD fiscal inefficiency, and
expensive tech.
Bob Dreyfuss, March 7 2013, Is DODs Asia Pivot Dead? The Nation,
http://www.thenation.com/blog/173247/dods-asia-pivot-dead, KTG
Nothing could be a better sign from the administration of President Barack Obama than a decision to kill
The pivot, of course, is the vastly expensive, counterproductive

and highly provocative shift of American military resources from the
war-weary Middle East to China and the Pacific. At best, the pivot is
a transparent effort by the military-industrial complex to justify its
bloated spending on defense by yapping about the supposed threat from China. At
the pivot.
worst, the pivot is an actual, on-the-ground (and on-the-sea and in-the-air) effort to contain China.
Sequester aside, with levels of spending on the Department of Defense likely to fall during the
2010s, the United States cant afford the pivot. Much of it would
involve vastly expensive naval and air force weapons systems
programs that Washington cannot pay for. Already, the right-wing Washington
Times is reporting: National security officials in the military and at the Pentagon are voicing growing
worries that the second Obama administration is preparing to jettison the new policy focus on Asia known
as the pivot or rebalancing. And worry they should. The paper also reports: Evidence cited by these
officials includes a recent Chinese government visitor who was told that the White House plans to kill the
shift to Asia in mid-2013 as part of its conciliatory approach to China. Beijing is the key, but unspoken,
target of the major military and diplomatic effort to increase security in Asia and calm the fears of US allies
alarmed by what they see as the new Chinese hegemon in Asia. The new Obama foreign policy team,
especially Chuck Hagel, are reported not to be enamored of the idea of an Asian pivot, says the Times.
And then theres the messy Middle East, including a hot war in Syria and a still-simmering one in
Afghanistan, that doesnt want to be pivoted away from. As the Wall Street Journal reports today: The
Obama administration hopes to pivot away from a hyper-focus on the Middle East during its second term,
but John Kerrys maiden overseas mission as secretary of statea nine-nation odyssey across Europe and
the Persian Gulfhighlighted why that goal may be elusive. Elusive, of course, because with the Arab
Spring faltering, the war in Syria, the Israel-Palestine conflict stuck, Iraq falling apart, Irans nuclear
program and the ongoing war in Afghanistan, its not easy to focus on East Asia. To be sure, much of the
future of the 21st century will revolve around the relationship between the United States and China, so it is
the right thing to do to focus on Asia and to build a cooperative relationship with Beijing. But the United
States doesnt need the Pentagons help to solve the political and economic problems with China and to
trying to contain China will only bolster

anti-American nationalists there and boost the prospects of the
Chinese military. Already, one of the key components of the air and
naval buildup for the so-called pivot is increasingly being called into
question over its cost, namely, the new F-35 Lightning aircraft , as noted
seek common ground there. On the contrary,
in The Washington Times: The Pentagons top brass are second-guessing the F-35 Lightningthe most
expensive weapons system in historyas spending cuts tighten the militarys budget and a new report
says F-35 pilots cant see that well out of the cockpit. The brass are generally warning that the sequester
puts DoD spending plans in jeopardy. Perhaps, though, it is likely that the sequester will get fixed later this
year, possibly with an Obama compromise that puts Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security in jeopardy.
But the DoDs problems are bigger than the sequester, and the pivot is just too damn expensive.

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1NC -- China War Turn

Pivot forces anti-American sentiment in Chinacauses
military buildup and US-China war.
Bonnie S. Glaser, April 12, 2013, Pivot to Asia: Prepare for Unintended
Consequences, Center for Strategic International Studies, Glaser- Senior

Adviser for Asia, Freeman Chair in China Studies and Senior Associate, Pacific
Forum; http://csis.org/files/publication/120413_gf_glaser.pdf, KTG
In the run-up to the leadership transition that will take place at Chinas 18th Party Congress this fall, Beijing is inwardly
2013 could see a shift in Chinese foreign

policy based on the new leaderships judgment that it must respond
to a U.S. strategy that seeks to prevent Chinas reemergence as a
great power. Signs of a potential harsh reaction are already
detectable. The U.S. Asia pivot has triggered an outpouring of antiAmerican sentiment in China that will increase pressure on Chinas
incoming leadership to stand up to the United States. Nationalistic
voices are calling for military countermeasures to the bolstering of
Americas military posture in the region and the new U.S. defense
strategic guidelines. For example, an article published in Chinas Global Times, a jingoistic newspaper
focused and unlikely to act on its fears. However,
owned by the Communist Party mouthpiece Peoples Daily, called for China to strengthen its long-range strike
capabilities. Deng Xiaopings guideline to keep a low profile in the international arena, designed more than two decades
ago to cope with uncertainty produced by the collapse of the Soviet bloc, is increasingly seen by Chinas elite and public
as irrelevant and even harmful to the task of defending Chinese ever-expanding core interests. Some voices are calling
for closer alignment with Moscow and promoting the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as a new pole in
The U.S. Asia pivot

has prompted Chinese anxiety about U.S. containment and
heightened regional worries about intensified U.S.-China strategic
competition. Xi Jinping, who will assume the helm as Chinas new leader later this year, will be under pressure
from many domestic constituencies to more forcefully defend Chinese interests in the international arena. Seeking
to quickly consolidate his power and enhance the legitimacy of the
Communist Party, Xi and his newly installed Politburo Standing Committee colleagues may be
more willing than their predecessors to test drive a policy that is
more confrontational. The U.S. response to a more muscular Chinese foreign and military policy, should
the international arena to strengthen the emerging powers against the West.
it appear, will have to be carefully calibrated. Ignoring greater Chinese assertiveness would fuel the beliefalready
emerging in China and elsewhere that the United States is in inexorable decline. History shows that when great powers
falter, China does not hesitate to seize the opportunity to advance its interests, especially in the South China Sea. As
American forces withdrew from Vietnam in the mid-1970s, the Chinese grabbed the Paracel Islands from Saigon. Similarly,
when the Soviet Union withdrew from Vietnams Cam Ranh Bay and the United States terminated its base agreement with
Yet a hostile and

overbearing U.S. response would confirm Chinese suspicions that
the United States seeks to contain its rise, which could cement the
emergence of a U.S.-China Cold War. In addition, it would further alarm regional states who
the Philippines, China quietly occupied Mischief Reef to the dismay of Manila.
seek at all costs to avoid having to choose between the United States and China.
Goes nuclearthe pivot magnifies the impact

Gregory Kulacki, 9/21/2012, The Risk of Nuclear War with China, Kulacki
is Senior Analyst & China Project Manager for the Global Security Program at
the Union of Concerned Scientists
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gregory-kulacki/the-risk-of-nuclear-warw_b_1903336.html, KTG
Although the United States is unwilling to make a similar
commitment, U.S. superiority in conventional weapons and overall
military capabilities makes it unlikely the United States would

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consider using nuclear weapons for any purpose other than

preventing a Chinese nuclear attack on the United States. The most recent
U.S. Nuclear Posture Review, in an effort to deemphasize the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. defense
policy, declared that the "fundamental role of U.S. nuclear weapons...is to deter a nuclear attack on the
The risk of a nuclear war with China lies in

the potential for misunderstanding or miscommunication during a
conventional conflict. China's current strategy for employing its
conventional and nuclear missile forces during a future conflict with
the United States is self-consciously designed to create uncertainty ,
United States, our allies and partners."
with the expectation that uncertainty will restrain U.S. military action. Unfortunately, China's strategy
There are several

Chinese military policies that might confuse U.S. decision-makers in
a time of war. Some Chinese conventional missiles are located on the same missile bases as
could also precipitate a large-scale U.S. attack on China's missile forces.
Chinese nuclear missiles. Some Chinese missiles, particularly the DF-21, can be armed with either a
Chinese conventional war plans call for longrange "strategic" conventional missile strikes at key enemy targets,
including U.S. military bases on allied soil and the continental United
States. If this were not confusing enough already, The Science of Second Artillery Operations contains
conventional or a nuclear warhead.
a section on "lowering the nuclear threshold" that details procedures for alerting China's nuclear forces in a
crisis for the express purpose of forcing a halt to an enemy's conventional attacks on a select group of
targets, such as Chinese nuclear power plants, large dams and civilian population centers. Although the
Science of Second Artillery Operations unambiguously states that if alerting China's nuclear missile forces
fails to halt conventional enemy attacks China will hold firm to its "no first use" commitment, U.S. decisionmakers might not believe it. Indeed, U.S. interlocutors have repeatedly told their Chinese counterparts that
The combination of these factors

makes a nuclear exchange between the United States and China not
only plausible, but also probable if the two countries were to
become embroiled in a military conflic t. As Lewis and Xue explain, "If, in a time
of high tension, the Chinese command authorized a conventional
missile attack as an act of preemptive self-defense, the enemy and
its allies could not know if the incoming missiles were conventional
or nuclear. In a worst-case scenario, a Chinese first-strike conventional attack
could spark retaliation that destroys Chinese nuclear assets,
creating a situation in which escalation to full-scale nuclear war
would not just be possible, but even likely." The Obama administration is
they do not find China's "no first use" pledge credible.
"rebalancing" U.S. military forces in response to perceived relative increases in Chinese military
China sees this so-called "pivot" to Asia, especially when pared with
as a policy of containment. Both
sides downplay the risks of conflict, but they also see each other as
potential adversaries, and are hedging their diplomatic bets with
expensive investments in new military hardware, including new technologies
capabilities.
new U.S. military strategies such as "Air-Sea Battle,"
that will expand the conflict into cyberspace and outer space. Territorial disputes between China and U.S.
allies, rising nationalist sentiment in the region, and the potential for domestic political instability within
China could produce any number of casussen belli that could trigger the conventional conflict that carries
the risk of ending in a nuclear war.

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2NC- Pivot Causes War/A2: Economies Solve

War
Asia pivot necessitates AirSea battle techniques which
causes wareconomic interdependence doesnt matter
here.
Henry Zheng, January 2013, US-China Relations: Why Obama's 'Asia
Pivot' Strategy Could Lead to Disaster

http://www.policymic.com/articles/20675/us-china-relations-why-obama-sasia-pivot-strategy-could-start-a-nuclear-war, KTG
In an interesting policy move that has been dubbed the "Asia Pivot," the Obama administration has shifted
its priorities to the Pacific region. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta indicated that by 2020, 60% of U.S.
naval ships will be in the Pacific, and 40% percent in the Atlantic, "compared with the current 50-50 split."
Critics of the pivot say that it is verbal bravado and a mere "repackaging of policies begun in previous
American
response is due in part to the surprising advancements made by the
Chinese military, such as the successful developments of its aircraft carrier, advanced jet fighters,
administrations, although still enough to unnecessarily antagonize the Chinese." This
and more cost-effective drones. China-U.S. relations expert Wu Xinbo advises the U.S. not to just focus on
China's rising capabilities, but also to "pay attention to how China will use its military power." It is not
surprising that China wants to catch up militarily, as it is a dominant economic power that has the means
the Chinese Communist Party and the People's

Liberation Army may not necessarily want to undermine U.S. global
military preeminence, but rather wish to assert their country's
sovereignty in regional disputes involving territories in the East and South China seas. The Chinese
to do so. However,
might threaten U.S. dominance in these regions insofar as they see American forces as encroachments
that they must guard against. Conversely, Washington sees itself as an important player in the Pacific, with
certain obligations and diplomatic interests to which it must attend. Notable strategic maneuvers
stemming from this perception include the stationing of 250 U.S. Marines in Australia, and military drills
An important plan that is receiving greater official attention
and Chinese condemnation is "Air Sea Battle," a comprehensive
strategy developed by the Department of Defense in case "an angry,
aggressive and heavily armed China" should decide to attack
American forces. This counterattack by the Air Force and the Navy would involve conventional
with Japan.
strike tactics. A graphic depicting the strategy can be found here. Developed by Andrew Marshall and
the Air Sea Battle concept involves the following: 1.

Increasing bomb resistant aircraft shelters and bring repair kits to fix damaged
airstrips. 2. Using stealthy bombers and quiet submarines to wage a
"blinding campaign" in which long range Chinese surveillance and precision missile systems are
Andrew Krepinevich,
targeted to open up the area of denial, which includes the disputed areas within the East and South China
Dispersing aircraft to Tinian and Palau islands, which are outside the
in order to confuse the enemy's
targeting processes. Critics doubt the necessity of such a plan. MIT Security Studies Program
director Barry Posen says that instead of questioning whether there will be
security concerns or threats, the highly influential Office of Net
Assessment in the Pentagon, which Andrew Marshall heads, convince[s] others to act
as if the worst cases are inevitable. In fact, over two dozen war scenarios run by
seas. 3.
range of Chinese land-based anti-ship missiles,
Krepinevich's defense think tank, the Center for Budgetary and Strategic Assessments, cast China as an
This potentially alarmist thinking has lately attracted

the attention of top military officials, suggesting that the plan or something similar
aggressive enemy.
may come to fruition. However, to realize this plan, there would have to be an increase in or reallocation of
military spending, which is something that may not be realized if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff this
upcoming January. Undoubtedly, such strategies have been a growing source of concern for Beijing.

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Colonel Fan Gaoyue said, If
the U.S. military develops Air-Sea Battle to deal

with the [Peoples Liberation Army], the PLA will be forced to
develop anti-Air-Sea Battle." The back-and-forth defense escalation
bespeaks the suspicious nature of security agencies in general that
could contribute to the deterioration of bilateral relations . With things as
they are now, tensions are quickly rising on both sides because they are both approaching each other with
a zero-sum mentality. Even with their almost inextricable economic and trade interdependence,
the
politics of Chinese containment and American repulsion could

become a military conflict before long. As shown by the Chinese-Japanese dispute
over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, Chinese citizens are willing to boycott foreign goods and services in a
even economic interdependence may not

deter war if the strategic interests of both the U.S. and China are
compromised. The two leaders must engage in an open discussion which addresses these problems
surge of patriotic fervor. Therefore,
honestly, and come up with practical solutions that move beyond their ideological and cultural differences.
If not done soon, we will all suffer.

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1NC -- ASEAN turn

The pivot alienates ASEAN and hurts its economic and
military security.
Donald K. Emmerson, January 13 2013, Challenging ASEAN: the
American pivot in Southeast Asia Director, Southeast Asia Forum (SEAF);

Affiliated Scholar, Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies; and Senior Fellow
Emeritus, FSI
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/01/13/challenging-asean-the-americanpivot-in-southeast-asia/, KTG
In its vaguest sense, the pivot is a turn toward Asia writ large. But it is particularly in Southeast Asia that
the pivots three themes security, economy and democracy are most evident. The accent on security
was already clear in the concern for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea expressed by US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton at the ASEAN Regional Forum in July 2010. In November 2011 President
Barack Obama stopped in Darwin to announce that 2500 US marines would eventually be stationed there.
One might
have thought that on a spectrum of ASEAN states from the most to
the least deferential toward China, reactions would have run from
jeers to cheers. They did not. No government was willing to denounce the pivot and jeopardise
And in June 2012 Singapore agreed to host in rotation as many as four US combat ships.
the chance of somehow benefiting from it. The shift in Washingtons attention from Afghanistan to ASEAN
could easily be seen by Southeast Asian policy makers as a way to slow, if not reduce, their own increasing
the pivots association with security

unbalanced the policy itself; assertions of American military power overshadowed the
exposure to Beijings strength. At the same time,
pivots economic rationale. This imbalance of security over economy tended to legitimate a division of
labour that from an American viewpoint could only seem invidious. By enlarging its profile in the western
the US Navy would even more thoroughly underwrite the

maritime security that ASEAN economies needed to continue
profiting from Chinese trade and investment. The pivot appeared to reinforce a
Pacific,
formula that, crudely put, ran thus: Americans would make the peace; Asians would make the money.
Accordingly, if the actual purpose of Obamas pivot could be summarised in a single word, that word is
inclusion, in terms of both security and economy. Any inclination to portray the pivot as a purely military
ploy is unfair. Obama travelled to Darwin and Bali in November 2011 from Honolulu. In Hawaii he hosted
the annual APEC forum, where he claimed progress in ongoing talks for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
In July 2012 in Cambodia, Secretary Clinton co-hosted the first USASEAN Business Forum, and the US
ASEAN Expanded Economic Engagement Initiative was launched in November 2012. On the pivots
ASEAN has developed an independent stance between

the United States and China, albeit one that leans modestly in the latters direction. But
ASEAN is divided. Of its member states, only Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam were
economic dimension,
among the 11 governments negotiating the US-backed TPP in Auckland in December 2012. Meanwhile, at
its summit in Phnom Penh a month before, ASEAN could have pleased China by supporting Beijings
preferred vehicle for regional economic cooperation, ASEAN+3, which necessarily excludes the United
States while limiting the non-ASEAN checks on Chinese influence to Japan and South Korea. ASEAN agreed
instead to launch negotiations toward a new entity: a 16-member Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) that would augment the ASEAN+3 grouping by adding three more potential restraints
on China Australia, India and New Zealand. The economic rationale for including these six non-ASEAN
states was that they already have FTAs with ASEAN. But five of the six, all but China, are democracies
oriented more or less toward the West. The potentially China-balancing value of that distribution was not
lost on those who proposed RCEP as a superior alternative to ASEAN+3. The
result is a benign
race between two vastly different models of economic integration:
the non-American, loosely declarative RCEP that subsumes existing
arrangements, versus the American-promoted, intrusively goldstandard TPP that requires domestic reform. Democracy distinguishes the pivot
least. As a policy priority in Washington, spreading democracy in Asia has been upstaged by security
and economic concerns, including Chinas naval moves and Americas fiscal woes. Meanwhile in Southeast
turning a blind eye remains the ASEAN Way of

dealing with the domestic political failings of the associations
Asia, with few exceptions,

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members. The United States did quickly move to support the dramatic political opening of Myanmar.
But even in that democratising narrative, security and economics loomed large. President Thein Seins own
reasons to promote reform reflected less a conversion to liberal ideology than a nationalistic wish to
reduce the countrys overdependence on China on the one hand, and a desire to catch up with the
economies of the modern world on the other. While celebrating the democratic consequences, Washington
treated these motivations as opportunities for strategic access. Since its birth during the Cold War,
ASEAN has occupied a political space that external events have

successively renewed by undermining the plausibility of big-power
control: the bloody chastening of American ambition in Vietnam, the turn toward pragmatism in post-
Mao China, the Soviet Unions self-shrinkage into Russia and irrelevance, and the strategic reticence and
economic stagnation of Japan. Viewed from Southeast Asia, the times have now changed in at least two
ways. First, Chinas spectacular material ascent and now military assertion appear to have emboldened its
current leaders. Second, to the extent that the American pivot is a response to this challenge, it appears to
open an ambiguous future. If SinoAmerican rivalry escalates, ASEANs members could split into Chinadeferring and China-defying camps, ruining the groups ability to lead. In contrast, a peaceful balancing of
power between Beijing and Washington could refurbish space for ASEAN to operate independently between
the two. But what ASEAN has until now been unprepared to face is the need to rebalance the ASEAN Way
On security,
ASEANs habit of catering to the lowest common denominator
undercuts its ability to deal with Chinese intimidation. That
encourages ASEAN members to rely on the American pivot as
leverage against Beijing. But that reliance may overestimate the
willingness of Washington to become involved, leaving ASEAN worse
off. Or, if the United States does confront China, escalation could
badly damage both Southeast Asian security and ASEANs reputation
for maintaining it. These challenges hardly augur the end of ASEAN. But the groups
centrality on matters of security and its creativity on economic
questions are being tested in two very different ways: by Beijings
strategy of assertion in the South China Sea, and by the pressure for
inclusion represented by Washingtons pivot toward Southeast Asia.
The results are not yet known. For now, however, the case for
optimism is, and is likely to remain, distinctly weaker on regional
security than it is for the regions economy.
by making it somewhat less consensual and correspondingly more effective.
That fragments ASEANresults in East Asian multilateral

breakdown and war over the South China sea and the
Senkaku islands.
Kei Koga, February 22 2013, "ASEAN's Great Power Dilemma" Kei Koga is
a research fellow at the International Security Program of the Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs, John F Kennedy School of Government,
Harvard University;
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/22784/aseans_great_power_dil
emma.html, KTG
Since the end of the Cold War, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has
engaged the outside world to play an active security role within
greater East Asia. In 1994, ASEAN created the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), at which regional powers such as the United
States, Japan, and China meet annually to discuss security issues in the region and beyond. In 1997, ASEAN+3 was created in order to
manage regional issues, especially economics. In 2005, the East Asia Summit (EAS) was established by inviting Australia, India and New
Zealand in addition to the ASEAN+3 member states. In 2011, the summit's membership was expanded to the US and Russia. In 2010, the
ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) expanded its membership to include all members from EAS to form ADMM Plus. By inviting the
region's great powers, ASEAN had two objectives: (1) to maintain the constant attention of the great powers to ASEAN and (2) to avoid political
ASEAN has attempted to maintain its postCold

War fundamental principle of regional multilateralism: "ASEAN
Centrality". This principle derives from the 10-member grouping's negative experience in the late 1980s with the establishment of
marginalization from them. To this end,
the rival Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. APEC was initiated by Australia and Japan and was strongly supported by the US.
However, it quickly became an institutional threat to ASEAN as it became relied upon by the region's great powers to shape regional
economics and marginalized ASEAN's political raison d'tre in East Asia. In response, in 1990 ASEAN created the "Kuching Consensus", which

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aimed to limit APEC to "a consultative forum on economic issues," and attempted to prevent formal institutionalization of APEC by constraining
its functional expansion. This negative experience led ASEAN to seek ways to prevent political marginalization from the great powers. During
ASEAN was also concerned about the future of great

power politics in Southeast Asia. As US-Soviet tensions eased and
Soviet Union forces withdrew from the Asia-Pacific, the US also
began to disengage militarily from the region. China and Japan, meanwhile, began to play
more active political and military roles. Strategic uncertainties created momentum for
ASEAN to establish ARF, which initially aimed to build confidence
among regional great powers. At the same time, ASEAN advanced the notion of
"ASEAN Centrality" in hopes of avoiding political marginalization
from these powers, in part by assuring they would chair or co-chair meetings and maintain influence over their agenda
and procedure. This principle worked well due to two main political
conditions. First, there was a significant measure of strategic
uncertainty in East Asia. The US's political and military commitment to the region became unclear beginning in the
the same postCold War period,
early 1990s. The uncertainty was driven by the 1992 collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington's failure to bail out the region's economies
after the 199798 Asian financial crisis and the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that led the US to focus more on the Middle East. In
this context, ASEAN has been a useful framework to help fill Southeast Asia's power vacuum. In addition, ASEAN became a forum for shaping
Second, the
Sino-Japanese political rivalry in East Asia created a better stage for
"ASEAN Centrality". Because it would be difficult for either China or
Japan to lead without creating regional blocs, ASEAN could utilize
this rivalry to lead East Asian multilateralism. With the establishment of ASEAN+3, Japan,
the region's political outlook instead of only balancing and counterbalancing political power among member states.
the existing great economic power in Asia, and China, the potential future economic leader in the region and beyond, often had political
disputes over the development of economic, political, and security multilateral frameworks. The 2005 establishment of the EAS was a case
in point. China strongly supported Malaysia's initiative to create a strong political regional framework through EAS by including only ASEAN+3
member states. On the other hand, Japan vigorously backed Indonesia's separate initiative to include other democratic states such as
Australia, India, and New Zealand. As such, the region's great powers evaded direct confrontation by positioning ASEAN in the middle.
Strategic middleman "ASEAN Centrality" functions with the understanding that there are certain political tensions among regional powers. In
this competitive state, gaining support from ASEAN's 10 members means regional powers can dramatically increase their political leverage
over rivals, thus making ASEAN a subject of their interest and attention. Nevertheless, this trend has gradually shifted. Regional powers are
now overhauling their strategy from vying for the balance of influence to competing for the balance of power in the region. The East Asian
security environment began to change in 2009 when China and other regional states intensified their territorial disputes with each other in the
This intensification was triggered at the international level

with China's official claim to the entire South China Sea, as indicated in its
South China Sea.
controversial "nine dash line" map. Beijing submitted its expansive maritime claim to the United Nations on May 7, 2009. That claim was
made in response to a Malaysia-Vietnam joint submission on their sovereignty to certain South China Sea areas on May 6, 2009, a move which
was highly criticized at the time by China and the Philippines. China's counter-claim also invited severe criticism from other Southeast Asian
More recently, China and Japan

have intensified their dispute over the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands. This began in September 2010 when a Chinese fishing boat collided with a Japanese Coast Guard vessel. The incident sparked
nationalistic demonstrations in both China and Japan, further bilateral relations. The confrontations are still
ongoing and have heightened diplomatic and military tensions
between China and other claimant states in both the East China Sea
and South China Sea. Southeast Asian claimant states have recently shifted their defense doctrines and sought bilateral
states, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
defense linkages with outside powers to counter China's perceived assertiveness. For example, Japan issued a new National Defense
Program Guideline in 2010 which asserted the necessity for Japan to "cautiously watch" China's growing military capabilities. Japan also aimed
to strengthen bilateral strategic linkages, including the US-Japan alliance, a strategic partnership with India, and trilateral dialogues with USAustralia and US-India. The Philippines, meanwhile, has sought public reassurance of its mutual defense treaty with the US and developed
other defense linkages, including maritime cooperation with India and Japan. Manila's drive for more great power linkages came after the 2011
Reed Bank and 2012 Scarborough Reef incidents with China. Vietnam has also strengthened bilateral security ties, as seen in its 2012 US-
All of these maneuvers indicate that the

behavior of regional powers is ultimately based on balance of power
logic that reaches beyond ASEAN's institutional frameworks . At the same time,
Vietnam defense memorandum of understanding (MOU).
ASEAN faces significant internal divisions among members with different opportunity-threat perceptions of China. ASEAN has faced this
difficulty since its inception in 1967 as a bulwark against the spread of regional communism. The expansion of the grouping's membership
from six to ten members in the 1990s has made it more difficult to reach a consensus, particularly on security issues where China has a
competing interest. As regional power rivalry rises, states are increasingly choosing to bypass ASEAN and individually engage its member
states on a bilateral basis in order to strengthen their balancing or counterbalancing strategies. This "divide and rule" strategy will likely
fragmentation was
illustrated at the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in July 2012, when ASEAN failed for the first time to issue a joint communiqu due to
further weaken ASEAN solidarity, a key component of "ASEAN Centrality". This trend towards
disagreements between China ally Cambodia and rival claimant the Philippines over whether to refer to the South China Sea in the statement.
In this sense, "ASEAN Centrality" is now under pressure both

externally and internally. So, what can ASEAN do to maintain its
centrality? Without economic and military capabilities to match

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regional powers, ASEAN cannot flex its muscles to pursue power

politics. Instead, ASEAN could focus on redefining its affiliated EAS, ADMM Plus and expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (AMF). In fact,
ASEAN has not yet lost its comparative advantages in shaping the East Asian security environment and still appeals to several great powers.
Japan's recent diplomatic maneuver illustrates this point. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe advocated in his December 2012 article "Asia's
Democratic Security Diamond" that Japan should create strategic linkages among "Australia, India, Japan, and the US state of Hawaii" to "form
a diamond to safeguard the maritime commons stretching from the Indian Ocean region to the western Pacific." Though Abe's article did not
mention ASEAN as a part of Japan's "security diamond" strategy, some sensed that shifted when he visited four ASEAN states as part of the
40th anniversary of ASEAN-Japan relations in January 2013. His "The Bounty of the Open Seas" speech outlined five key principles for Japanese
, Abe
referred to ASEAN as "a supremely vital linchpin in terms of its
importance to our diplomatic strategy." Moreover, ASEAN and India recently elevated their relations
diplomacy: democratic values, rule of laws, open economies, cultural exchanges and human exchanges. In the same speech
to "strategic partnership" and issued a "Vision Statement" in December 2012 which further incorporated issues of maritime security and
freedom of navigation. These overtures and initiatives indicate that ASEAN and its affiliated institutions still have a comparative advantage
in shaping and influencing East Asia's security landscape and could play a key role in maintaining regional maritime stability. ASEAN would be
wise to go beyond staging fora for talks discussions among member states and move to establish a monitoring mechanism to maintain the
Such a mechanism would

require an institutional emphasis on preventing threats or use of
force over territorial disputes. Coordinating the existing frameworks of the EAS, ADMM Plus and expanded AMF
could buttress such a mechanism by weaving together functionalities at various government levels. It is time for ASEAN
to seriously consider this enhanced role if it aims to maintain
"ASEAN Centrality" in East Asian multilateralism.
maritime status quo, as territorial disputes are likely to intensify among claimant states.

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2NC- South China Sea Impact

South China Sea war goes nuclearthe pivot raises the
risk.
John Chan, May 19, 2012, A dangerous dispute in the South China Sea
Published by the International Committee of the Fourth International,
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2012/05/pers-m19.html, KTG
More broadly, the Obama administration is strengthening its military alliances in Asia with Japan and South Korea as well
South Korea has adopted a more

belligerent stance towards Chinas ally North Korea, Japan has more
aggressively asserted its claims against China over the disputed
Senkaku Islands, and India has pressed its border dispute with
China. Fearing encirclement, Beijing has responded by forging closer strategic ties with Russia, resulting in large-scale
as Australia, and its strategic partnership with India. As a result,
joint war games, including a major naval exercise in North East Asia last month. The driving force behind the Obama
administrations reckless confrontation with China is the historic decline of US imperialism. Over the past two decades,
Washington has repeatedly resorted to wars of aggression, especially in the Middle East, exploiting its military dominance
The pivot to Asia has

dramatically raised the stakes. By seeking to stamp its hegemony
over Asia, the US risks triggering a catastrophic war between
nuclear-armed powers. Despite its economic dependence on China as the worlds premier cheap labour
platform, US imperialism cannot tolerate any potential challenge to its
dominant position within the existing global strategic and economic
framework. By deliberately raising tensions throughout Asia, the
Obama administration has inflamed the numerous regional
flashpoints that extend from the Korean Peninsula to the territorial
disputes in the South China Sea and to rivalries in South Asia. An
in an attempt to shore up its economic and strategic position.
insignificant clash over Scarborough Shoal can rapidly become an international trial of strength as China defends its core
interests and the US militarily backs its Philippine ally. The
very real dangers of war cannot

be overcome by protests and appeals to governments. Its root causes lie in the
worsening global crisis of the capitalist system and the resulting intensifying clash of strategic and economic interests.
The only means of ending the rise of militarism and war is a unified revolutionary movement of workers in China, the US,
Asia and around the world to abolish the profit system and its reactionary division of the world into rival nation-states, and
to establish socialism internationally.

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2NC- Senkaku Conflict Impact

Senkaku conflict will escalate to great power war and kills
the economyturns their economy advantage.
Michael Richardson, February 5 2013, No winners in a conflict over the
Senkaku Islands The Japan Times,

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/02/05/commentary/no-winners-ina-conflict-over-the-senkaku-islands/#.UY6y3r8yRtc, KTG
SINGAPORE Will 2013 be the year when one or more of the intractable
disputes in the seas off China explode into armed conflict, involving
the United States in a wider war to protect its Asian allies? The disputes are
about ownership of islands, and jurisdiction over strategic maritime zones and valuable resources. The answer should be
Such a war, with no guarantees that it could be contained,

would have unpredictable but potentially catastrophic
consequences. The major protagonists in these disputes the U.S.,
China and Japan are respectively the worlds three largest
economies, with a strong mutual interest in maintaining peace to boost their trade, growth, investment and
jobs. The other economies in Northeast and Southeast Asia are closely
tied to those of the major players. They would also suffer badly from
military conflict, even if it was confined to the region. The shock to business confidence in Asia, a driver of
recovery in the still-fragile global economy, would be shattering. In the South China Sea, where
Beijings territorial claims are most extensive, an increasingly
assertive and militarily powerful China is challenging the right of
other nations to occupy atolls and reefs it claims. The rival claimants include U.S.
a resounding no.
ally the Philippines, as well as Vietnam and Malaysia. Beijing is also seeking to enforce controls on fishing in the South
China Sea, and bans on developing energy and mineral resources in the waters, seabed and subsoil it claims, unless they
are done with Chinese approval. But it is in the East China Sea that maritime tensions are currently most acute. There,
U.S. ally Japan is trying to fend off a Chinese challenge to its

administrative control of the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, which lie about
midway between Taiwan and Okinawa in southern Japan, where the U.S. has important military bases. Both sides have
recently scrambled jet fighters and confronted each others patrol boats in waters surrounding the islands. The
conflicting sovereignty
claims in the East and South China seas, which inflame nationalism,
are especially troublesome friction points and can be ripe for
miscalculation. With the Asia-Pacific area anxious about a clash
either accidental or intentional Japan, encouraged by the U.S., has
made some diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with China. It sent an envoy to
commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Adm. Cecil D. Haney, warned recently that
Beijing and proposed a summit or high-level talks. However, in calling for calm, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that there
was no room for negotiations over the sovereignty of the Senkakus, something Beijing insists must take place with
Tokyo. Both sides appear to be staking out their vital or core national interests, while building their military strength.
China will never give up its core territorial and security interests,
said Xi Jinping on Jan. 28 in his first formal presentation of foreign policy since taking over as leader of both the
ruling Chinese Communist Party and the armed forces in November. A summary of his speech was published in state
media.

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2NC- Human Rights Impact

ASEAN coordination key to combat human rights
violations.
United Nations Human Rights, 16 November 2012, ASEAN
Human Rights Declaration should maintain international standards, urge key

UN expert group Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights,
http://www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?
NewsID=12796&LangID=E, KTG
GENEVA (16 November 2012) The largest body of independent experts in the
United Nations Human Rights system today called on the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to ensure that international human
rights standards are maintained when they come to consider the adoption of the ASEAN Human
Rights Declaration this Sunday, 18 November. It is imperative that, as a minimum, ASEANs landmark
human rights instrument maintains international standards to
complement the work of the UN human rights system, said Michel Forst, who
currently chairs the Coordination Committee set up by the independent experts designated by the UN Human Rights
Council to address specific country situations and thematic issues in all parts of the world. In an open letter* to ASEAN
member States, the group of international experts stressed the need to reaffirm in their Declaration the duty of States to
promote and protect all human rights and fundamental freedoms regardless of their particular political, economic and
cultural systems - one of the key principles of the Vienna Declaration and Programme of Action, adopted by 171 States in
1993 to forge a new vision for global action for human rights into the next century. The raison d'tre of regional human
rights instruments is to establish minimum standards that all domestic laws need to comply with, which may involve the
amendment of domestic laws if these violate human rights, Mr. Forst said. The right to life, for example, is a
fundamental right upon which all other rights depend, and any credible human rights instrument should unconditionally
protect it without making it contingent on the provisions of domestic law. In relation to the right to life, the Committee
Chair warned, provisions
such as in accordance with national law could

be used to shield States against scrutiny by international human
rights mechanisms concerning the excessive use of force by law
enforcement officers, state failure to protect people against nonstate actors and the continuation of the use of the death penalty . The
Human Rights Council independent experts also drew attention to provisions in the draft ASEAN Declaration which seek to
balance rights with individual duties. This is not the wording of international human rights law, they pointed out.
Advocating a balance between human rights and duties creates much greater scope for Governments to place arbitrary,
disproportionate and unnecessary restrictions on human rights. With regard to legitimate restrictions, under certain
conditions, on the grounds of morality, public order and national security, Mr. Forst noted, the
Human
Rights Council experts are acutely aware of the risk of these terms
being used as a pretext by Governments to place arbitrary,
disproportionate and unnecessary restrictions on human rights. We
strongly encourage the inclusion of language which makes explicit that the restrictions must be provided by law and
conform to the strict tests of necessity and proportionality, and that these restrictions may not put in jeopardy the right
The experts also called

on ASEAN to consider in their declaration the issues of
statelessness, the right to seek and to enjoy asylum from
persecution in other countries, and the international customary law
principle of non-refoulement (to prevent persons from being returned to countries where, for
itself or apply to rights that are non-derogable under international law, he said.
instance, they will be subjected to torture). Again, such provisions should not be contingent on domestic laws,
ASEAN Human Rights Declaration should take its

place as a landmark document which contributes to an improvement
in the human rights situation in South-East Asia, the Committee Chair said. To
underscored Mr. Forst. The
achieve this, we call on all ASEAN member States to consult further with the people of the region, including civil society
organisations, and to take on board their concerns and aspirations.

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And Violation of freedom negates the value of human

existence and represents the greatest threat to human
survival.
Rand 89 [(Ayn Rand, Philosopher, July 1989, The Virtue of Selfishness: A
New Concept of Egoism, p. 145)]

A society that robs and individual of the product of his effort, or
enslaves him, or attempts to limit the freedom of his mind, or compels him
to act against his own rational judgment, a society that sets up a conflict
between its ethics and the requirements of mans nature is not, strictly
speaking, a society, but a mob held together by institutionalized
gang-rule. Such a society destroys all values of human coexistence,
has no possible justification, and represents, not a source of benefits,
but the deadliest threat to mans survival. Life on desert island is safer
than and incomparably preferable than existence in Soviet Russia or Nazi
Germany.

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1NC -- Middle East Turn

Asia pivot would shift away from the Middle East and
causes warundermines efforts to deter Syrian civil war,
Iran nuclearlization, and Israel response.
David Bell Mislan, March 20, 2013, US cant pivot to Asia-Pacific with feet
still bogged down in Middle East Global Times,
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/769412.shtml#.UY62xb8yRtd, KTG
For better or worse, the "pivot to the Asia-Pacific" has gained worldwide attention. This shift in focus away
from Europe and the Middle East and toward the Pacific would not only reorganize the broad goals and
resources of the US, but it could also reorder the balance of power in East Asia. It is no wonder, then, that
so much attention has been paid to the appointment of more cautious foreign policy leaders at the start of
US President Barack Obama's second term. While it seems that the appointment of John Kerry at the
Department of State and Chuck Hagel at the Pentagon indicate a change of heart, it is more likely that the
White House is coming to terms with the fact that the Asia pivot will be more difficult than it had initially
While the desire in the White House to refocus on the Pacific
remains strong, events in the Middle East will continue to make the
pivot more of a dream than a reality. Since the late 1970s, regional stability
and access to energy resources have been at the heart of US policy
toward the Middle East, and have been deemed central to the national interest. The wars
in Afghanistan and Iraq were intended to achieve these goals and
enhance national security, yet they have only produced
contradictory effects. Sectarian politics continue to threaten to pull apart the Iraqi state, and
the Taliban will remain influential after the last US troops leave Afghanistan next year. The rest of
the Middle East is not doing any better. The Syrian civil war could
become a regional conflict; Iran continues to pursue nuclear
weapons, while Israel threatens a preventive strike in response ; and the
thought.
revolutions of the Arab Spring have done little to diffuse long-standing grievances among the region's
Any of these problems could turn into nightmare scenarios

that would require an US or allied military response, lest they throw
the entire region into chaos. After four years of trying to look past
the Middle East and toward an Asian future, the Obama
administration seems resigned to the fact that while it cannot fix the
Middle East's problems, it cannot ignore them, either. Nor can it hold
the region together without substantial help from others. Thus, Kerry's
disaffected.
first trip abroad was more about conferring with European allies than it was about immediately addressing
the crises in Syria and Egypt. This is a welcome sign among those on both sides of the Atlantic that wish to
see a more constructive and closer cooperation on foreign policy. It was less exciting for those who want to
Even if the Middle East were to stabilize in

the next few years, it is uncertain if there is enough domestic
support to reprioritize US foreign policy goals . Americans are deeply divided over
refocus the US gaze on the Pacific.
the future of US foreign policy. Three big ideas, idealism, pragmatism and isolationism, historically push
and pull foreign policy in different directions, and the current era is no different. While Americans deeply
desire a consistent "big picture" strategy, their disagreements over what it should be and how to achieve it
The pivot, never fully accepted by all and never

truly specified, will continue to be more of a dream than a reality .
Instead of a pivot, we should think of pivotal US interests in Asia.
The US needs East and Southeast Asian shipping lanes to be open
and unfettered to all. It wants a peaceful resolution to the island disputes among Japan, China,
present one from materializing.
and South Korea, and it has 28,000 soldiers in South Korea that it needs to protect from a nuclear and
bellicose North Korea.

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2NC- Oil Prices/ Ext: M.E. War

Pivot causes Middle Eastern war and would spike oil
pricesturns the oil advantage.
Robert Kagan, 20 November 2012, United States cant pivot away from
Middle East Washington Post, senior fellow in the Center on the United
States and Europe in Foreign Policy at Brookings,
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-11-20/opinions/35510489_1_obamaadministration-middle-east-obama-campaign, KTG
The irony, of course, is that every time the Obama administration tries to turn
toward Asia, the Middle East drags it back literally, in the case of Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton. Its an illusion to think we will not continue to be drawn into Middle East affairs. The
world is no longer neatly divided by distinct regions, if it ever was. Events in the Middle East affect the
Wherever the United States gets its oil, global

energy prices are affected by whether oil flows freely from the
Middle East, and U.S. allies in Europe and Asia still depend on that
as a main source. If Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, it will affect not
just the Middle East but the global non-proliferation regime . The success
or failure of the experiment to marry Islamism and democracy that is playing out in Egypt,
Tunisia and elsewhere will affect politics across the Islamic world, from Morocco to
Pakistan to Southeast Asia as well as in Europe. And if Syria collapses, the chances
are high that well-armed terrorist groups will gain a foothold in a
nation with the worlds largest chemical weapons stockpiles . The
world, just as events in Asia do.
present world order is seamless, and so is the global strategy necessary to sustain it. As one prominent
statesman expressed the general puzzlement here, Cant the United States walk and chew gum at the
For decades the United States has been able to provide

security and remain engaged in three major theaters at once:
Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Today those theaters are more
interconnected, economically and strategically, than eve r. So lets by
all means give Asia the attention it deserves. But the world wont
afford us the luxury of downgrading the importance of the other two
regions. Thats what it means to be a global superpower: We can
pivot, but we cant leave.
same time?

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2NC- Impact Wall

Extend the 1NC Mislan evidencestates that a pivot
towards Asia would pivot away from the Middle East
undermining efforts to deter civil war in Syria and
intervention. Also, it undermines deterrence of Irans
nuclear program and a potential Israel response and
attack against Iran. Well impact each scenario:
First, Syria civil war escalates to chemical weapon use.
Paul B. Stares, December 19, 2012, Preventing Chemical Weapons Use in
Syria General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and
Director of the Center for Preventive Action,
http://www.cfr.org/syria/preventing-chemical-weapons-use-syria/p29701
Warnings by the United States and other countries threatening the
Syrian regime with dire consequences if chemical weapons are used
against rebel forces may have had the intended effect . Recent media reports
suggest this concern has now diminished. It is just as plausible, however, that the regime had little
intention of using its chemical weapons but fabricated the preparations that prompted the warnings to
Either way, it is wrong to assume the

danger of chemical weapons use in Syria is receding. Indeed, there are
good reasons to believe it could grow in the coming weeks and months.
Syria, which is not a signatory of the Chemical Weapons Convention, is widely believed to
possess sizeable stocks of different kinds of chemical weapons (CRS)-principally nerve (Sarin, VX) and blister (mustard gas) agents --that have been weaponized
into bombs, artillery shells, and possibly warheads for delivery by
missiles. How quickly this arsenal could be employed today is unclear from public reports, but it is
prudent to believe that some, if not all of it, is operationally ready.
Although the fighting to date has more than demonstrated the
lethality of conventional weapons, the use of chemical agents would
represent a significant escalation of the violence with potentially
mass casualty consequences. It would also breach an international norm against the use of
deter outside intervention in Syria's civil war.
chemical weapons that is important to maintain. Deliberate use of chemical weapons by government
forces against either rebel groups or population centers considered sympathetic to their cause is certainly
the scenario that has attracted the most concern. But it is just one of many conceivable scenarios to worry
about. For example, should rebel forces progressively gain the upper hand -as they seem to be doing--the regime or elements of the regime might retreat to predominantly Alawite
Chemical weapons could eventually be

employed to deter further encroachment or defend these areas
when they are assaulted. And if defeat looked inevitable, their use as a final act of defiance
areas of Syria to create a rump state.
cannot be discounted.
Extinction
Ochs 2, Past president of the Aberdeen Proving Ground Superfund Citizens
Coalition, Member of the Depleted Uranium Task force of the Military Toxics
Project, and Member of the Chemical Weapons Working Group [Richard
Ochs, , June 9, 2002, Biological Weapons Must Be Abolished Immediately,
http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]
Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological
weapons, many without a known cure or vaccine, are an extreme danger to the continued

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survival of life on earth. Any perceived military value or deterrence pales in comparison to the great risk these
weapons pose just sitting in vials in laboratories. While a nuclear winter, resulting from a massive exchange of nuclear
weapons, could also kill off most of life on earth and severely
compromise the health of future generations, they are easier to
control. Biological weapons, on the other hand, can get out of
control very easily, as the recent anthrax attacks has demonstrated.
There is no way to guarantee the security of these doomsday weapons because very tiny amounts can be stolen or accidentally
released and then grow or be grown to horrendous proportions . The Black Death of the Middle Ages would be
small in comparison to the potential damage bioweapons could cause. Abolition of chemical weapons is less of a priority because, while they
can also kill millions of people outright, their persistence in the environment would be less than nuclear or biological agents or more localized.
Hence, chemical weapons would have a lesser effect on future generations of innocent people and the natural environment. Like the
biological weapons, the

killing will probably never end. Radioactive elements last tens of thousands of years and will keep causing
cancers virtually forever. Potentially worse than that, bio-engineered agents by the hundreds
with no known cure could wreck even greater calamity on the human
race than could persistent radiation. AIDS and ebola viruses are just a small example of recently emerging plagues with no known cure or
vaccine. Can we imagine hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE. Ironically, the
Holocaust, once a localized chemical extermination is over, it is over. With nuclear and
Bush administration has just changed the U.S. nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation against threats upon allies by conventional
weapons. The past doctrine allowed such use only as a last resort when our nations survival was at stake. Will the new policy also allow easier
use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope?
Secondly, Iran nuclearlization causes nuclear retaliation

and extinction
Morgan 9 [. Dennis Ray Morgan, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies at
the Yongin Campus in South Korea, 2009, Futures, World on fire: two
scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of
the human race]
Given the present day predicament regarding Irans attempt to become a nuclear power, particular attention should be
nuclear war that begins through an attack

on Irans supposed nuclear facilities. According to Seymour Hersh the nuclear
option against Iran has, in fact, been discussed by sources in the
Pentagon as a viable option. As Hersh reports, according to a former intelligence officer, the
lack of reliable intelligence leaves military planners, given the goal
of totally destroying the sites, little choice but to consider the use
of tactical nuclear weapons. Every other option, in the view of the nuclear weaponeers, would leave
given to one of Moores scenarios depicting
a gap, the former senior intelligence official said. Decisive is the key word of the Air Forces planning. Its a tough
decision. But we made it in Japan. The official continues to explain how White House and Pentagon officials are
considering the nuclear option for Iran, Nuclear planners go through extensive training and learn the technical details of
damage and fallout - were talking about mushroom clouds, radiation, mass casualties, and contamination over years. This
is not an underground nuclear test, where all you see is the earth raised a little bit. These politicians dont have a clue,
and whenever anybody tries to get it out remove the nuclear option theyre shouted down. Understandably, some
members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff were not comfortable about consideration of the nuclear option in a first strike, and
some officers have even discussed resigning. Hersh quotes the former intelligence officer as saying, Late this winter, the
Joint Chiefs of Staff sought to remove the nuclear option from the evolving war plans for Iran - without success. The White
This scenario has gained

even more plausibility since a January 2007 Sunday Times report of
an Israeli intelligence leak that Israel was considering a strike
against Iran, using low-yield bunker busting nukes to destroy
Irans supposedly secret underground nuclear facilities. In Moores scenario,
non-nuclear neighboring countries would then respond with
conventional rockets and chemical, biological and radiological
weapons. Israel then would retaliate with nuclear strikes on several
countries, including a pre-emptive strike against Pakistan, who then
retaliates with an attack not only on Israel but pre-emptively
striking India as well. Israel then initiates the Samson option
with attacks on other Muslim countries, Russia, and possibly the antiHouse said, Why are you challenging this? The option came from you.

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Europe. At that point, all-out nuclear war ensues as the

U.S. retaliates with nuclear attacks on Russia and possibly
on China as well. Out of the four interrelated factors that could precipitate a nuclear strike and subsequent
Semitic cities of
escalation into nuclear war, probably the accidental factor is one that deserves particular attention since its likelihood is
much greater than commonly perceived. In an article, 20 Mishaps that Might Have Started a Nuclear War, Phillips cites
the historical record to illustrate how an accident, misinterpretation, or false alarm could ignite a nuclear war. Most of
these incidents occurred during a time of intense tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in the Cuban Missile
Crisis, but other mishaps occurred during other times, with the most recent one in 1995. Close inspection of each of these
incidents reveals how likely it is that an accident or misinterpretation of phenomena or data (glitch) can lead to
nuclear confrontation and war. In his overall analysis, Phillips writes: The probability of actual progression to nuclear war
on any one of the occasions listed may have been small, due to planned failsafe features in the warning and launch
systems, and to responsible action by those in the chain of command when the failsafe features had failed. However, the
accumulation of small probabilities of disaster from a long sequence of risks adds up to serious danger. There is no way of
telling what the actual level of risk was in these mishaps but if the chance of disaster in every one of the 20 incidents had
been only 1 in 100, it is a mathematical fact that the chance of surviving all 20 would have been 82%, i.e. about the same
as the chance of surviving a single pull of the trigger at Russian roulette played with a 6-shooter. With a similar series of
mishaps on the Soviet side: another pull of the trigger. If the risk in some of the events had been as high as 1 in 10, then
Aggression in the
Middle East along with the willingness to use lowyield bunker
busting nukes by the U.S. only increases the likelihood of nuclear
war and catastrophe in the future. White House and Pentagon
policymakers are seriously considering the use of strategic nuclear
weapons against Iran. As Ryan McMaken explains, someone at the Pentagon who had . . .not yet
the chance of surviving just seven such events would have been less than 50:50.
completed the transformation into a complete sociopath leaked the Nuclear Posture Review which outlined plans for a
nuclear end game with Iraq, Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Syria, none of which possess nuclear weapons. The report also
outlined plans to let the missiles fly on Russia and China as well, even though virtually everyone on the face of the Earth
thought we had actually normalized relations with them. It turns out, much to the surprise of the Chinese and the
Russians, that they are still potential enemies in a nuclear holocaust.
Finally, Iran Israel war causes extinction.

Hirsch, 5 (Jorge, Professor of Physics University of California, San Diego,
Can A Nuclear Strike On Iran Be Averted, 11-21,
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hirsch.php?articleid=8089
The Bush administration has put together all the elements it needs to justify the impending
military action against Iran. Unlike in the case of Iraq, it will happen without warning, and
We will wake up one day to

learn that facilities in Iran have been bombed in a joint U.S.-Israeli
attack. It may even take another couple of days for the revelation that some of the U.S.
most of the justifications will be issued after the fact.
bombs were nuclear. Why a Nuclear Attack on Iran Is a Bad Idea Now that we have outlined
what is very close to happening, let us discuss briefly why everything possible should be
the attack will cause a violent

reaction from Iran. Millions of "human wave" Iranian militias will storm
into Iraq, and just as Saddam stopped them with chemical weapons, the U.S. will
stop them with nuclear weapons, resulting potentially in hundreds
of thousands of casualties. The Middle East will explode , and popular
uprisings in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries with pro-Western
governments could be overtaken by radical regimes. Pakistan already
has nuclear weapons, and a nuclear conflict could even lead to
Russia's and Israel's involvement using nuclear weapons. In a bestdone to prevent it. In a worst-case scenario,
case scenario, the U.S. will destroy all nuclear, chemical, and missile facilities in Iran with
conventional and low-yield nuclear weapons in a lightning surprise attack, and Iran will be
paralyzed and decide not to retaliate for fear of a vastly more devastating nuclear attack.
In the short term, the U.S. will succeed, leaving no Iranian nuclear program, civilian or
otherwise. Iran will no longer threaten Israel, a regime change will ensue, and a pro-
the longterm consequences are dire. The nuclear threshold will have been
crossed by a nuclear superpower against a non-nuclear country. Many more
countries will rush to get their own nuclear weapons as a
deterrent. With no taboo against the use of nuclear weapons, they
Western government will emerge. However, even in the best-case scenario,

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will certainly be used again. Nuclear conflicts will occur within the
next 10 to 20 years, and will escalate until much of the world is
destroyed. Let us remember that the destructive power of existing
nuclear arsenals is approximately one million times that of the Hiroshima bomb,
enough to erase Earth's population many times over.

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Defense

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1NC---Defense
NAFTA has failed in all three countries.
Brian Lustig and Nan Gibson, 2013, NAFTA a failure thus far, group
reports Economic Policy Institute, Lustig used to direct media relations for
the EPI and has a BA in International Affairs from Emory and an MA in
International Relations from GWU, Nan Gibson is at the EPI;
http://www.epi.org/publication/press_releases_failedexppr/, KTG
Washington, D.C. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has failed to perform as
promised and should be repealed or significantly restructured , reports a
coalition of six policy-research organizations. Although NAFTA has benefited some sectors of the economy, its
overall impact on working families in the three signatory countries
the United States, Canada, and Mexico has been negative. In
anticipation of the release by President Clinton of a congressionally mandated comprehensive study on the operation and
effects of NAFTA, the group has prepared a report that examines the overall impact of NAFTA since its implementation.
The Failed Experiment: NAFTA at Three Years evaluates the promised benefits of the agreement in several broad areas:
the general economies of the participating countries, the living standards of their populations, labor relations throughout
In
the United States, NAFTA: * Put downward pressure on wages and living
standards; * Created deep and probably chronic trade deficits with its neighbors; *
Displaced more than 400,000 jobs; * Weakened workers rights and reduced
employee bargaining power; * Exacerbated environmental and public-health
damage along the U.S.-Mexico border; * Compromised food safety standards; and
* Increased drug trafficking due to insufficient border inspections and heavier truck traffic from
Mexico. In Mexico, NAFTA: * Precipitated the 1994 peso collapse , which led to
an economic depression; * Eliminated more than 2 million jobs; * Reduced real
hourly wages by 27% from 1994 levels; * Caused the failure of more than 28,000
small businesses; and * Weakened labor standards and increased violations of worker
rights. Canada, too, has suffered the continued effects of a recession
that began in 1989 with the ratification of the original U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The effective
North America, and the continents environment. It finds that NAFTA has fallen far short in each of these areas.
merger with the U.S. economy has increased unemployment and forced Canada to begin to dismantle its longstanding
social safety net, resulting in falling standards of living for the average Canadian.
Free trade cant workNAFTA and every other free-trade

agreement in the past decade prove.
Ian Fletcher, March 20, 2011, More Free Trade Agreements? When
NAFTA Failed? Huffington Post Business, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ianfletcher/more-free-trade-agreement_b_838196.html, KTG

With the Republicans and the Obama administration attempting to
rush headlong into a new trade agreement with Korea , and possibly also with
Panama and Colombia as well, it is incumbent on Americans to apply a bit of empiricism . How have our past trade
agreements worked out? Above all, how's the grand-daddy of them
all, NAFTA, doing? Unfortunately, NAFTA is a veritable case study in failure.
This is all the more damning because this treaty was created, and is
administered, by the very Washington elite that is loudest in
proclaiming free trade's virtues. So there is no room for excuses
about incompetent implementation, the standard alibi for free trade's failures in the developing world. So
if free trade was going to work anywhere, it should have been here .
Instead, what happened? NAFTA was sold as a policy that would reduce America's trade deficit. But our trade balance
actually worsened against both Canada and Mexico. For the four years prior to
NAFTA's implementation in 1994, America's annual deficit with Canada averaged a modest $8.1 billion. Twelve years later, it was up to $71

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billion. Our trade with Mexico showed a $1.6 billion surplus in 1993 but by 2010, our deficit had reached $61.6 billion. Eccentric billionaire
and 1992 presidential candidate H. Ross Perot was roundly mocked for predicting a "giant sucking sound" of jobs going to Mexico if NAFTA
passed. But he has been vindicated. The Department of Labor has estimated that NAFTA cost America 525,000 jobs between 1994 and 2002.
NAFTA has eliminated some 766,000

job opportunities--primarily for non-college-educated workers in
manufacturing. Contrary to what the American promoters of NAFTA promised U.S. workers, the agreement did not result in an
According to the more aggressive Economic Policy Institute:
increased trade surplus with Mexico, but the reverse. As manufacturing jobs disappeared, workers were down-scaled to lower-paying, lesssecure services jobs. Within manufacturing, the threat of employers to move production to Mexico proved a powerful weapon for undercutting
The idea of Mexico as a vast export market for

American products is a sad joke; Mexicans are simply too poor. In the 1997
words of Business Mexico, a pro-NAFTA publication of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico: The reality is that
only between 10 and 20 percent of the population are really
considered consumers. The extreme unequal distribution of wealth has created a distorted market, the economy is
workers' bargaining power.
hamstrung by a work force with a poor level of education, and a sizable chunk of the gross domestic product in devoted to exports rather than
production for home consumption. According to official figures that year, fewer than 18 million Mexicans made more than 5,000 pesos a
month. And even that was only about $625: roughly half the U.S. poverty line for a family of four. This has not improved much since, so, as
Mexico's economy is so small--its GDP is less than four percent

that of the United States--that for the foreseeable future it will be neither a major supplier nor a major market."
Paul Krugman has pointed out, "
But if NAFTA wasn't a plausible economic bonanza for the U.S. and America's establishment knew it, then what was going on? Krugman again
supplies an answer, writing in Foreign Affairs that, "For the United States, NAFTA is essentially a foreign policy rather than an economic issue."
The real agenda was to keep people like President Carlos Salinas, friendly with powerful interests in the U.S., in power in Mexico City. Bottom
Free trade was pushed not because of any sincerely anticipated

economic benefits, but to serve an extraneous foreign policy agenda .
To his credit, Krugman later admitted the utter chicanery of it all, writing in The New Democrat in 1996 that: The agreement
was sold under false pretences. Over the protests of most economists, the Clinton Administration chose to
line?
promote NAFTA as a jobs-creation program. Based on little more than guesswork, a few economists argued that NAFTA would boost our trade
surplus with Mexico, and thus produce a net gain in jobs. With utterly spurious precision, the administration settled on a figure of 200,000 jobs
created--and this became the core of the NAFTA sales pitch. NAFTA was sold in Mexico as Mexico's ticket to the big time. Mexicans were told
they were choosing between gradually converging with America's advanced economy and regressing to the status of a backwater like
neighboring Guatemala. What actually happened? In reality, the income gap between the United States and Mexico grew (by over 10
percent) in the first decade of the agreement. This doesn't mean America boomed; we didn't. But Mexico slumped terribly. In NAFTA's first
decade, the Mexican economy averaged 1.8 percent real growth per capita. By contrast, under the protectionist economic policies of 1948-73,
Mexico had averaged 3.2 percent growth. Because Mexico's labor force grows by a million people a year, job creation must get ahead of this
curve in order to raise wages; this is simply not happening. Mexican workers can often be hired for less than the taxes on American workers;
the average maquiladora wage is $1.82/hr. The maquiladora sector is deliberately isolated from the rest of the Mexican economy and
contributes little to it. Workers' rights, wages, and benefits are deliberately suppressed. Environmental laws are frequently just ignored.
Mexican agriculture hasn't benefited either: NAFTA turned Mexico

from a food exporter to a food importer overnight and over a million farm jobs were
wiped out by cheap American food exports, massively subsidized by our various farm programs. Promoters of NAFTA have tried to cover up
its problems by using inappropriate yardsticks of success. For example, they have claimed that the expansion of total trade among the three
nations vindicates the pact. But this expansion has been due to a growing American deficit. Because a growing deficit means, by definition,
that our imports have been growing faster than our exports, there is no way that economic growth per se will ever solve the problem.
Congress was right to reject NAFTA initially, which never enjoyed sincere majority support in either the House or the Senate and was bought
with sheer patronage by Bill Clinton. To be fair, NAFTA is not the only thing that has been wrong with the Mexican economy in recent decades.
NAFTA was the capstone to a series of dubious free-market

economic experiments carried out there since the early 1980s. Between 1990 and
But
1999, Mexican manufacturing wages fell 21 percent. It gets worse. Despite the fact that, compared to the U.S., Mexico is a cheap-labor
Mexico is now losing

manufacturing jobs to China in such areas as computer parts,
electrical components, toys, textiles, sporting goods, and shoes: 200,000
in the first two years of the millennium alone. Mexico's trade deficit against the rest of the
world has actually worsened since NAFTA was signed. In the words of liberal
economy, there are plenty of nations with even lower average wages. For example,
commentator William Greider, "The Mexican maquiladora cities thought they were going to become the next South Korea, but instead they
NAFTA is not America's only free trade agreement, of

course. But our other agreements tell similar tales. We have signed
11 since 2000: with Australia, Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Korea, Oman, Morocco, Singapore, Panama, and Peru. (El
may be the next Detroit."
Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic were lumped together in the Central America Free Trade Agreement
Every agreement but one has coincided with greater American

deficits. The only exception is Singapore, where our existing surplus increased somewhat. But Singapore is tiny, a mere city-state.
Nevertheless, our government pushes for more. As of 2011, country agreements with
or CAFTA.)
Colombia, South Korea, Oman and Panama were pending ratification, and the U.S. was in stalled negotiations with Malaysia, Thailand and the
United Arab Emirates. Next on the list are reportedly Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In December 2009, the Obama
administration announced its intention to eventually join the existing Trans-Pacific Partnership and elevate it into a full-blown free trade area
comprising the U.S. plus Singapore, Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, Australia, Peru, and Vietnam. In December 2010, the administration reached a
slightly-improved deal with South Korea and announced it would push for Congressional ratification.

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2NC
Extend the Lustig and Gibson evidenceNAFTA has failed
in all countries its a part of. In the US, it has reduced
wages, created trade deficits, displaced jobs, and ruined
environmental regulations and food standards. In Mexico,
NAFTA led to the peso collapse and eliminated jobs, and in
Canada also led to a major recession.
Turn- NAFTA increases trade deficits, empirics prove
Hufbauer is WRONGGG.
Catie Duckworth, June 19 2012, The Failures of NAFTA, Duckworth is a
research associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Major in Spanish
and International Studies at Dickinson University http://www.coha.org/thefailures-of-nafta/, KTG
In 1992, Gary Hufbauer, a NAFTA enthusiast from the Institute of International Economics, predicted
that NAFTA will generate a $7 to $9 billion [USD] surplus that would ensure the
net creation of 170,000 jobs in the U.S. economy the first year.(5) However, quite the opposite
occurred; the U.S. trade deficit with both Mexico and Canada
increased, costing the United States an estimated 150,000 jobs in 1994
alone.(6) According to the United States Census Bureau, while the United States actually had a trade surplus with Mexico
of approximately $1 billion USD in both 1993 and 1994, by 2007 the growing trade deficit with Mexico had reached an alltime high, at $74 billion USD.(7) Although
U.S. exports to Mexico did increase

slightly under NAFTA, the U.S. encountered the new problem of
revolving door exports. Most U.S. exports to Mexico have consisted of mechanical parts, which are
used to assemble goods in Mexican factories that are then imported back into the United States for cheap, a process
Such exports have doubled since the

implementation of NAFTA, leading only to more imports from Mexico
and a deepening trade deficit.(8) Source: CommodifiedLife.com The combination of increased
known as the maquiladora system.
imports from Mexico and a growing trade deficit have led to job losses, mostly in high-wage, non-college-educated
manufacturing positions, in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Colombia.(9) When these displaced American workers
later re-enter the job market, they find difficulty securing new jobs and often have to settle for markedly lower wages. As
the United States has lost approximately 700,000 jobs due

to disruptions in supply chains brought about by NAFTA.(10)
of March 2011,
NAFTA has destroyed Mexico. No debate here.


Although NAFTA has been detrimental for the United States, the free
trade agreement has been far worse for Mexico. While proponents touted NAFTA as
ostensibly a beneficial social policy, the income gap in Mexico has in fact widened
since NAFTAs implementation, with this development creating even more poverty in a country
already afflicted with the concentration of wealth in too few hands. The poverty rate in Mexico rose from 45.6 percent in
1994 to 50.3 percent in 2000, and the number continues to climb.(11) In 2010, the World Bank reported the most recent
Perhaps
the most devastating blow dealt by NAFTA to the Mexican economy
was the near destruction of Mexicos agricultural sector, in which 2
million farm workers lost their jobs and 8 million small-scale farmers
poverty rate in Mexico at 51.3 percent.(12) Source: Omar Torres/Agence France-Press- Getty Images

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were forced to sell their land at disastrously low prices, or desert it,
due to sharply declining food prices.(13) Importantly, the U.S. government subsidizes many
domestically produced agricultural products, allowing the products to be sold to Mexico at prices 30 percent below the
after NAFTAs inauguration, U.S. agricultural exports

crowded out Mexican agriculture produce, and the United States became the main food
cost of production.(14) Thus,
supplier of Mexico. In one case, U.S. corn exports, by maintaining subsidized prices, have all but rendered Mexican corn
cultivation obsolete and non-competitive. Corn, or maize, had been one of the main crops and an integral part of the
identity of the Mexican people since pre-Columbian days, but due to subsidized U.S. agricultural products, this tradition
has all but come to an end. Thus, NAFTA has not only negatively impacted Mexicos economy, but also altered its national
Due to the decline in the competitiveness

of Mexican agricultural products, the rural population has been
pushed from the countryside into the cities to seek employment in
the booming manufacturing sector, one of the many paradoxical
consequences of NAFTA. Many American corporations took advantage of this plethora of cheap labor
identity by infringing on ancestral traditions.
and constructed factories along the U.S.-Mexico border, creating the maquiladora system. While these factories, or
maquilas, created 1.3 million jobs in the export-manufacturing sector, they still were not able to counterbalance jobs lost
in the agricultural sector, and it was not long before foreign competition threatened these newly created jobs.(15) Since
one third of all NAFTA-created manufacturing jobs in Mexico have

disappeared as North American corporations continue to offshore
operations to China, where manufacturing wages are about an eighth of those in Mexico.(16)
Although NAFTA is not the only cause of the economic distress
Mexico has faced in the past decade, the economic pact failed to
generate a Mexican economy capable of competing in a global
market, thus negating what little economic benefit it brought
Mexico. Moreover, even with the creation of new manufacturing
jobs, Mexican living conditions have consistently declined since
NAFTAs advent. In the pacts first five years, real wages in Mexico fell by 20 percent, and workers in the
2001,
manufacturing sector now earn about a fourth of their pre-NAFTA wages.(17) Additionally, the prices of most goods in
Mexico have significantly increased. The cost of tortillas, which represent 75 percent of the daily caloric intake for
Mexicos poor, increased by 571 percent in the first six years of NAFTA, rendering meager wages even more insufficient
than before NAFTAs implementation(18) and making it increasingly difficult for families to meet basic needs. Wage
disparities between Americans and Mexicans have also widened. In 1994, Mexicans earned 23 percent of what Americans
With this wage reduction,

the lower class in Mexico has expanded, pushing more povertystricken individuals into areas that were already troubled by
inadequate housing, healthcare, and public safety,(20) and
generating further problems for the Mexican state, such as drug
violence and urban sprawl.
earned overall; by 2006, the differential had dropped to 12 percent.(19)

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2NC Author Indict

Heres a framing argumentbe skeptical of their authors.
They dont use right data-points.

Promoters of NAFTA have tried to cover up its problems by using
inappropriate yardsticks of success. For example, they have claimed
that the expansion of total trade among the three nations vindicates
the pact. But this expansion has been due to a growing American
deficit. Because a growing deficit means, by definition, that our
imports have been growing faster than our exports, there is no way
that economic growth per se will ever solve the problem.
Free trade policies fail to take the most effected voices

into account
Shiro Armstrong, April 17 2011, TPP needs less haste, more caution
East Asia Forum, Research Fellow, International Development Economics at
the Crawfood School of Public Policy at Australian National University, PhD
from ANU; http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/04/17/tpp-needs-less-hastemore-caution/, KTG
A quick agreement with exemptions and exclusions without an
inclusive framework will mean accession for future members will
have to be negotiated separately with each member. That is a laborious and
counterproductive process which will likely build layer upon layer of exclusions, exemptions and
protection.
It will leave power of veto for economic, political and

whatever reasons with individual original signatories. FTAs, or trade
liberalization through international negotiation, lack one of the key
mechanisms for helping to solve the problem of sensitive sectors
that is, a mechanism for giving voice to the domestic interests who
are hurt by import substitution. Any mechanism that levers off
offensive and defensive interests will fail to do this (including WTO
process). Such a domestic mechanism was important for unilateral reform in Australia in the 1980s that
opened up sensitive sectors.

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A2 NAFTA Models the TPP

NAFTA cant provide a model for TPPdifferent time
periods.
Fergusson et al. April 15, 2013, The Trans-Pacific Partnership
Negotiations and Issues for Congress, Ian F. Fergusson- coordinator for FAS
and specialist in International trade and finance, William H. Cooper- associate
at FAS and specialist in international trade and finance, Remy Jurenasspecialist in agricultural policy, Brock R. Williams- Analyst in International
trade and Finance, Federation of American Scientists,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42694.pdf, KTG
A successfully concluded TPP agreement may shape the future
course of multilateral trade liberalization. After 10 years of negotiations, the Doha
Round of multilateral trade negotiations is at an impasse, and WTO members are developing new
TPP may offer an opportunity for a

group of countries dedicated to concluding a comprehensive, highstandards FTA to break new ground on issues thus far not
negotiated at the multilateral level. Past FTAs, such as NAFTA,
incorporated new trade policy ideas, such as dispute settlement and intellectual property rights,
that were concurrently being negotiated in the Uruguay Round .
NAFTA was approved first, and the approval of NAFTA among Canada, Mexico and the United
States helped push the Uruguay Round to conclusion. Today, the approval of a
comprehensive, high-standard TPP agreement could signal to
recalcitrant members of the WTO that trade liberalization can
proceed without them and might spur action at the multilateral level. However, the
world trading system is much different than it was in the early 1990s
when NAFTA signatories (United States and Canada) made up half of the socalled Quad-countries (United States, Canada, the European Union, and Japan) that
decided the Uruguay Round. Developing countries, such as Brazil,
India, and China, that now exercise their interests in the WTO, may
be more assertive in pursuing their own interests. Yet, as an alternative venue
approaches to address global trade issues.147
promoting trade liberalization at the time when the WTO is not seen to be doing so, it may attract
additional countries to the negotiations.

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1NC---Mexican Econ Turn

NAFTA kills Mexican agriculture, which is key to the
Mexican economystudies prove.
Timothy A. Wise, December 2009, Agricultural Dumping Under NAFTA:
Estimating the Costs of U.S. Agricultural Policies to Mexican Producers;

Timothy A. Wise is Director of the Research and Policy Program at the Global
Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, and leads its
Globalization and Sustainable Development Program, he has a Masters in
Public Policy from Tufts' Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning
Department;
http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/AgricDumpingWoodrowWilsonCenter.p
df, KTG
With the opening of the Mexican economy under the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexican agriculture came under new
competitive pressures from U.S. exports. It was widely recognized at the beginning of NAFTA
that Mexico had geographically-based comparative advantages in
supplying off-season fruits and vegetables to a hungry U.S. market.
NAFTAs liberalization of agricultural trade produced the expected
results, with more staple crops and meats flowing south and more
seasonal fruits and vegetables flowing north. In agriculture, tariffs
and quotas have now mostly been eliminated. Not so agricultural
subsidies, which were left largely undisciplined by NAFTA. High U.S.
farm subsidies for exported crops, which compete with Mexican products, have prompted
charges that the level playing field NAFTA was supposed to create is
in fact tilted heavily in favor of the United States. This paper assesses the
costs of U.S. agricultural policies to Mexican producers by examining the extent to which the United States
exported agricultural products to Mexico at prices below their costs of production, one of the definitions of
We study eight agricultural goods corn, soybeans,

wheat, rice, cotton, beef, pork, and poultry all of which are heavily
supported by the U.S. government, were produced in Mexico in significant volumes
before NAFTA, and experienced dramatic increases in U.S. exports to
Mexico after the agreement. We look at the years 1997-2005 because the beginning year
dumping in the WTO.
follows both the implementation of NAFTA and the enactment of the 1996 U.S. Farm Bill, which significantly
changed the nature of U.S. farm support. We estimate dumping margins and the costs to Mexican
We estimate Mexican
losses for the eight products at $12.8 billion over the nine-year
period, more than the value of Mexican tomato exports to the United States. Corn farmers experienced
producers of prices driven below production costs by U.S. policies.
the greatest losses: $6.5 billion, an average of $99 per hectare per year.
Mexican economic growth key to solve the drug trade

Catherine E. Shoichet, November 27, 2012, Mexican president-elect:
Economic growth is key weapon in drug war CNN;
http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/27/politics/mexico-president-interview, KTG
(CNN) -- Creating more economic opportunities will be Mexico's greatest
weapon in the war on drugs, the country's president-elect said Tuesday. "That, I
think, is going to be the best way my government can prevent
organized crime," President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. Without
jobs and social programs, he said, "millions of my countrymen have no other
option than to dedicate themselves sometimes to criminal activity ."

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The wide-ranging interview was recorded just a few hours before the incoming leader met with U.S.
Nieto said he
planned to focus on building trust and boosting economic ties to
create jobs. Mexican leader eyes economic ties with U.S. "We've lost presence and
competitiveness on the international market. ... There's still space, an
President Barack Obama in Washington. In his first meeting with Obama, Pena
opportunity, to achieve greater integration as far as productivity, which will allow us to improve the
competitive conditions for creating jobs across North America," he said.
Mexico is on the brink of collapse due to cartel violence

failure there ensures full-scale war from state collapse.
Shingal 11 Ankur Shingal, University of California, Los Angeles, At the
Tipping Point: Why the United States Must Assist Mexico in the Mexican Drug
War Agathai Quarterly Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, Winter 2011
http://www.mortarboardatucla.org/uploads/4/7/8/9/4789362/winter_journal.pd
f#page=26
The third reason why the United States must enhance its aid to Mexico is the possibility of a failed Mexican
The drug war in Mexico has become a life or death struggle for
the Mexican government. Despite substantial US aid, the Mexican authorities
remain outgunned and outmanned. The drug cartels, although not acting as
an alternative government per say, enjoy near autonomy throughout a number of
cities across the country, including border cities such as Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez. In effect, the
Mexican government has completely committed itself to fighting
against the drug cartels, but is at best failing to make progress and at worst losing the war.
state.
What is even more disheartening is the consideration that the drug cartels are the ones with time on their
side. While the Mexican government has neither the resources nor the man power to continue its major
offensive without more substantial assistance from the United States, the drug cartels remain as powerful
It is distinctly possible to foresee a day when the Mexican

government, in spite of its efforts, is unable to control the drug
cartels, and Mexico essentially becomes a failed state. While there are a
as ever.
number of scholars and politicians, including Mexican President Calderon, who ardently argue that the
Mexican state will not fail, it is significant to note that the US government is already preparing itself for
that possibility. In fact, according to a study by the United States Joint Forces Command, which looks to
uncover future developments to ensure that the US military will not be caught off guard, Mexico is
considered a large and important [state that] bear[s] consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse.177
The study also states that the
[Mexican] government, its politicians, police

and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and
pressure by...drug cartels. That internal conflict... [is having] a major
impact on the stability of the Mexican state.178 The US government has already
begun to take specific actions to ensure that it is ready for that increasingly likely possibility of a failed
state. One example is that the Texas state government is spending millions of tax dollars to construct
refugee camps to prepare for the possibility that thousands flee Mexico if the state fails. Ted Galen
Carpenter, vice president for the defense and foreign policy center at the Cato Institute, argues that while
a complete collapse may be a relative long shot...its not out of the question....Its obviously prudent to
consider that possibility and not get blindsided should it happen.179 While it is true that the United States
preparing itself does not necessarily mean that the Mexican collapse is imminent, such preparation is a
If
the Mexican government were to fail, the United States would be
forced to take direct military action against the drug cartels. As the Joint
product of the US governments fear that such an event has a very real potential to actually occur.
Forces Command report notes, any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response
based on the serious implications for homeland security 175 Serrano, No longer next door. 176
Ruben Navarette Jr., Commentary: What Mexicos drug war means for U.S., CNNPolitics.com, February
27, 2009. 177 Bernd Debusmann, Among top U.S. fear: A failed Mexican state, The New York Times,
January 9, 2009. 178 Ibid 179 Joshua Rhett Miller, If Violence Escalates in Mexico, Texas Officials Plan to
That
response could prove to be nothing less than a full scale war
because, unlike in the current situation, the United States would not
be Ready, FoxNews.com, February 12, 2009. Agathai Quarterly Journal 27 alone.180

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have the luxury of having the Mexico state to fight on its behalf.
Essentially, if the United States does not provide more meaningful
aid now, then it may be forced to fight another war that would affect
its own citizenry directly. It is irrefutable that the amount of aid that is necessary is
substantially more than the four hundred million dollars worth that the United States has already
promised , through the Mrida Initiative. But all of those extra costs, all of which are economic, pale in
comparison to the amount of money and manpower that the United States would have to expend to win a
war against the drug cartels directly. Therefore, it would be prudent for the US to provide more aid now
rather than waiting and possibly being forced into a position where it has no choice but to fight a war on its
home front.

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Mexico Economy High

Mexicos economy is rising but is fragile.
Tim Padgett, 3/8/2013, Mexicos New Boom: Why the World Should Tone
Down the Hype TIME, http://world.time.com/2013/03/08/mexicos-new-boomwhy-the-world-should-tone-down-the-hype/, KTG
I couldnt be happier that Mexicos economy is rebounding. After barely 2% average
annual growth between 2000 and 2010, the countrys GDP expanded almost 4% in
2011 and 2012. Investment is booming and the middle class is enlarging. Mexicos
manufacturing exports lead Latin America, and its trade as a share of GDP tops
Chinas. Its No. 53 spot on the World Banks ease-of-doing-business rankings far outshines the No. 126
grade of its main regional rival, Brazil; it has signed more free trade agreements (44) than any other
country, and its enrolling more engineering students than any south of the Rio Grande. As I noted a year
its a trend well worth applauding. But I emphasize: its a trend.

Its not the miracle, the economic version of the appearance of Our Lady of Guadalupe, that so
ago,
many Mexico cheerleaders from government officials to foreign investors to embassy diplomats are
Yes, good news from Mexico is more than welcome after

a decade overshadowed by horrific narco-violence; a more positive
conversation about the country is a relief. But no matter how loudly the enthusiasts
scold the media for dwelling on Mexicos mayhem, the cartel killing hasnt stopped,
and many of the socio-economic ills that help breed the brutality
persist. The media didnt just make up the 60,000 gangland murders of the past seven years, or the
insisting we call it.
relentless massacres and beheadings, or reports like the one released last week by Human Rights Watch
about the 27,000 Mexicans who have disappeared during the drug war.
Mexico econ is growing, yo, but fml it could still collapse

again =(
Lauren Villagran, April 24 2013, Is Mexico's economy more a fiesta or a
siesta? CS Monitor, correspondent,
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2013/0424/Is-Mexico-s-economymore-a-fiesta-or-a-siesta, KTG
China, India, and Brazil are out. Mexico is in at least according to international
observers who have been cooing over Mexico's rise in recent months.
In Pictures: Mexico's Economy
With a new year and a new government, the way the world views
Mexico has already changed dramatically. Mexico has enviable
economic stability and a forecast for growth, improved social
mobility, and an emerging middle class. It is competing with Brazil to
become the economic darling of Latin America and is challenging
China in manufacturing prowess. The drug war rages on in many regions, but optimism
for Mexicos future is trumping the dark prognoses of the recent past.
But is all the optimism for Mexicos
There are two sides to the coin when comes to Mexico's

future as a global economic force. The new government inherited an
economy rebounding from the impact of the economic crisis, but
how the administration approaches deep-rooted challenges like
poverty and inequality will determine whether the current optimism
gains momentum or peters out. Mexicos potential remains enigmatic. There is no
future warranted?
doubting the countrys macroeconomic successes, economists say. A stable currency over nearly 20 years,
steady (if sometimes slow) economic growth; and fiscal discipline have combined to keep Mexico sailing in
smooth waters. Mexico has signed a dozen trade pacts, which have opened it to the world. Thats the
birds eye view.

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2NC NAFTA Farmer Expulsion

NAFTA expels Mexican farmers from their farms into US
territorykills Mexican agriculture.
Susana G. Baumann, January 11 2013, Mexican Farmers Affected By
Agricultural Subsidies From NAFTA, Other International Agreements

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/11/mexican-farmers-agriculturalsubsidies_n_2457845.html, KTG
The impact of NAFTA and other international agreements in
combination with U.S. agricultural subsidies expel millions of Mexicans and
other rural workers from their countries of origin into the United
States territory every year. According to Wise, who carried out a comparison of farm
product prices in the U.S.-Mexico trade between 1997 and 2005, Mexico was flooded with
agricultural imports exported at prices below production costs . In his
research, the eight products studied included corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, beef, pork and poultry.
All products showed significant increase in exportsfrom the lowest 159

percent in soybean to the largest in pork exports at 707 percent. For all products, Mexican
producers prices fell from 44 to 67 percent from early 1990s levels,
declining local production and increasing import dependency.
Mexican crop production also fell except for corn and meats, which at lower prices, was
rapidly adopted for consumption in the Mexican families diet. An estimated 2.3 million
people have left agriculture in a country desperate for livelihoods ,
said Wise. The study estimated that the cost to Mexican producers was around $12.8 billion in the nine-
The other
cost, the one that we, north of the border pay, is the constant
migration of these displaced rural workers into the United States.
year period, more than 10 percent of the U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade value annually.
NAFTA policies devastate Mexican agriculture through

forced labor, forcing mass migration of farmers to the US.
David Bacon, January 4 2012, How US Policies Fueled Mexico's Great
Migration The Nation Magazine;
http://www.thenation.com/article/165438/how-us-policies-fueled-mexicosgreat-migration?page=0,3, KTG
From the beginning NAFTA was an instrument of displacement , says
Juan Manuel Sandoval, co-founder of the Mexican Action Network Against Free Trade. The penetration of
capital led to the destruction of the traditional economy, especially
in agriculture. People had no alternative but to migrate. Sandoval notes that
many US industries are dependent on this army of available labor. Meatpacking especially depends on a constant flow of
workers, he says. Mexico
has become its labor reserve. Raul Delgado Wise, a professor at

than a free-trade agreement, NAFTA
can be described asa mechanism for the provision of cheap labor.
Since NAFTA came into force, the migrant factory has exported
[millions of] Mexicans to the United States. About 11 percent of
Mexicos population lives in the United States, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
the University of Zacatecas, charges that rather
Their remittances, which were less than $4 billion in 1994 when NAFTA took effect, rose to $10 billion in 2002, and then
$20 billion three years later, according to the Bank of Mexico. Even in the recession, Mexicans sent home $21.13 billion in
2010. Remittances total 3 percent of Mexicos gross domestic product, according to Frank Holmes, investment analyst and
They are now Mexicos second-largest source of

national income, behind oil. However, Mexicos debt payments, mostly to US banks, consume the
same percentage of the GDP as remittances. Those remittances, therefore, support
CEO of US Global Investors.

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families and provide services that were formerly the obligation of

the Mexican government. This alone gives the government a vested
interest in the continuing labor flow.
NAFTA is comparatively worse for Mexican farmers and

agriculture than the Spanish acquisition of the region.
Latin American Herald Tribune, May 24 2013, NAFTA Hurts Mexico
More Than Spaniards Did, Farmers Say http://www.laht.com/article.asp?
ArticleId=366312&CategoryId=14091, KTG
MEXICO CITY The North American Free Trade Agreement has done more
harm to Mexico than Spain did during the colonial period, the influential
CNC farmers confederation said. NAFTA has done in 16 years what it took the
Spanish Empire nearly five centuries to do, as the transnational
firms that operate in Mexico likewise control production, marketing,
fertilizers and transportation of food in the country , the CNC said in a
statement. The agreement linking the U.S., Mexican and Canadian economies took effect Jan. 1, 1994. On the eve of the
Mexico finds its food sovereignty

diminished by half, according to the CNC, a group with traditional ties to the main opposition Institutional
Revolutionary Party, or PRI. Imports now account for 33 percent of the corn the heart of
the Mexican diet and 75 percent of the rice consumed in the country, while beef imports have surged 440
Sept. 15-16 bicentennial of independence from Spain,
percent in the last three years, the CNC says. CNC leader Cruz Lopez Aguilar, who is also a PRI congressman, blames the
ills of Mexican agriculture on NAFTA. The
trade agreement is as bad as, or worse

than, the presence of the Spanish monarchy 200 years ago and I
accuse it (NAFTA) of the existence of nearly 3 million jobless, the 17
percent fall in remittances (from emigrants) and the increasing cost of food,
he said.

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Ext NAFTA kills Mexican Econ

NAFTA kills the Mexican economy.
Brandon Spurlock, October 14 2008, NAFTA fails Mexican economy?
Elon University Media; cites studies and information from Mario Antonio
Velasquez Navarrete (Mexican sociologist)
http://mediawrites.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/nafta-fails-mexican-economy/
Mexican sociologist, Mario Antonio Velasquez Navarrete, came to Elon University to relay the message that
NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) has failed the Mexican economy and
in turn, forced Mexican migration towards the United States. A great
deal of Elon University students attended the meeting last evening in the Yeager Recital Hall. Velasquez
Navarrete spoke only Spanish and his words were translated by Todd Miller, both work along-side each
NAFTA was initially promoted by

politicians in the United States and Canada supportive of free trade .
other in Mexico. The NAFTA Implement
The agreement was pursued by business interests in all three countries and opposed by labor,
environmental, and other business interests, in all three countries .
The agreements
promised Mexico would be part of the first world and better jobs and
conditions of life for their people. Velasquez Navarrete stressed that the trade
agreement between the three countries has done nothing but hurt the Mexican economy. Negative Effects
on the Mexican Economy Mexico
has been the backyard of the United States

for many years. said Velasquez Navarrete. He explained that NAFTA has caused
many negative impacts on Mexico. It has had negative impacts on
farmers in Mexico who saw food prices fall based on cheap imports
from U.S. agribusiness, and negative impacts on U.S. workers in
manufacturing and assembly industries who lost jobs. Millions of
people in huge territories were taking out of the market
Bankruptcy of small and medium sized companies Jobs have been
lost for Mexican workers Mexico was forced to take away support
for their farmers Loss of food sovereignty Forced Migration due to NAFTA
Velasquez Navarrete explained that due to NAFTAs failure, 575,000 Mexican migrants go to the United
States every year. Between 2000 and 2006, there were 11 million undocumented migrants in the United
States. Most of these migrants are working in the United States for very low incomes. Mexico in Trouble?
Navarrete went on to explain that the Mexican economy is more vulnerable than ever. If the U.S. stopped
trading with Mexico they would experience a great depression. When the United States sneezes it leaves
Mexico with pneumonia. said Velasquez Navarrete
1NC ev says NAFTA kills agriculturethat is key to

Mexicos economy.
United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, March 2001,
U.S. - MEXICO AGRICULTURE: A TRADE SUCCESS STORY
http://www.usmcoc.org/b-nafta9.php, KTG
Agricultural trade and investment plays an important role in U.S.-Mexico economic relations, even with the
uneven size of the two economies. In 1998, agricultural exports from the United States to Mexico totaled
about $6 billion, while agricultural exports from Mexico to the United States totaled about $4.7 billion. For
the United States, this represented about 12 percent of agricultural exports while for Mexico, it
represented more than 60 percent of agricultural exports. Agriculture in Mexico and in the U.S.
Mexican agriculture is a much more significant factor in the Mexican

economy than U.S. agriculture is in the U.S. economy. Agriculture
contributes 8 percent to Mexicos gross domestic product (GDP) and
employs about 22 percent of the labor force (about 8 million workers). For the
United States, agriculture comprises only 2 percent of GDP and employs about 2.7 percent of the labor
force (a bit under 4 million workers). However,
the United States has considerably

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more arable land than Mexico. Only 12 percent (230 thousand square kilometers) of
Mexico is arable while 19 percent (1,800 thousand square kilometers) of U.S. land is arable.

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A2 Mexican Ag Trade Increased

There is no correlation between NAFTA and increases in
tradestudies and the most qualified authors prove.
Antonio Yunez-Naude and Fernando Barceinas Paredes, December
2004, THE AGRICULTURE OF MEXICO AFTER TEN YEARS OF NAFTA
IMPLEMENTATION a report by the Central Bank of Chile; both authors are
associates at El Colegio de Mxico;
http://www.bcentral.cl/eng/studies/working-papers/pdf/dtbc277.pdf, KTG
So, the evolution of Mexico agricultural trade indicates that , as expected,
it has increased during NAFTA. However, this trend could have been
present before NAFTA. We conducted an empirical study to test if
NAFTA caused structural change in agricultural trade, based on a model
developed by Vogelsang: 1997 (for an application of the model see Ben-David and Papell: 1997) is
convenient since if structural change is present, the date when this happen is determined endogenously
The variable for estimating the

equation of structural change in agricultural trade was the value of
agricultural monthly exports and imports (totals and per crop) in constant pesos
(details are in Yunez- Naude and Barceinas: 2003).
using the real exchange rate index for 1990. For the case of total agricultural exports and imports the
period we considered was from January 1980 to August 2002. Due to data restrictions, the period
As with
price tendencies, our results show that there is a contrast between
agricultural exports and imports: whereas, as expected, the former
have experienced structural change, imports have not. In particular,
considered for specific crops or groups of crops was from January 1991 to August 2002.
agricultural total exports were subject to structural change in the last month of 1994, and the same was
true for tomatoes, fresh vegetables, melon and watermelon, and other fresh fruits (structural change in
Mexico exports of these commodities happen, respectively, in December, 1994, November 1994,
there is not evidence of structural

change for total agricultural imports, neither for the major imported
crops considered in the analysis (maize, sorghum, soy, other oilseeds and seeds and
wheat). In addition, the dates of structural change for exports make us to
suspect that this could have been due to the sharp devaluation of
the peso during the end of December 1994 and beginning of 1995 (our findings about the
September, 1994 and June, 1995). In contrast,
trends of the agricultural trade of Mexico are similar to those expressed by the Economic Research Service
of the US Department of Agriculture, ERS: 1999 and 2000).
The reason Mexico hasnt collapsed yet is due to industry

diversity, not NAFTA.
Antonio Yunez-Naude and Fernando Barceinas Paredes, December
2004, THE AGRICULTURE OF MEXICO AFTER TEN YEARS OF NAFTA
IMPLEMENTATION a report by the Central Bank of Chile; both authors are

associates at El Colegio de Mxico;
http://www.bcentral.cl/eng/studies/working-papers/pdf/dtbc277.pdf, KTG
To answer the question of why the production of staples in Mexico
has not collapsed and agricultural supply has not been transformed
and/or diversified by NAFTA, one has to consider two phenomena: the
effects on domestic production of the new agricultural policies and ,
for the case of maize and beans, the dual character of the agriculture of
Mexico. Duality refers to the coexistence of entrepreneurial farmers
with peasant or family producers. The later are rural households doing jointly production
and consumption decisions for staples; agriculture being just part of their income-earning activities. In

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peasant producers have limited land (their plots have

do not have access to irrigation and, due to poor
communications and transport limitations, these producers face high transaction
costs in some markets. By contrast, entrepreneurial or commercial
farmers decision making process is the same as any other farmer in
the developed world: their production is specialized, produce for a profit and for the market in
a context of no or low transaction costs (Table 11). 11 Our first hypothesis is that these
distinguishing features make the supply of peasant products
inelastic or less elastic than that of entrepreneurial farmers (see section
addition and in general terms,
less than 2.5 hectares),
6.2 below).

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Turns Mexico Relations

Mexican agriculture is key to US-Mexico relations.
United States-Mexico Chamber of Commerce, March 2001,
U.S. - MEXICO AGRICULTURE: A TRADE SUCCESS STORY
http://www.usmcoc.org/b-nafta9.php, KTG
Agricultural trade and investment plays an important role in U.S.Mexico economic relations, even with the uneven size of the two economies. In 1998,
agricultural exports from the United States to Mexico totaled about
$6 billion, while agricultural exports from Mexico to the United
States totaled about $4.7 billion. For the United States, this
represented about 12 percent of agricultural exports while for
Mexico, it represented more than 60 percent of agricultural exports.

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State Collapse Impact

Mexican collapse causes arms race and global instability
Haddick, 10, Robert Haddick, Managing editor of the Small Wars Journal,
9/10/2010. Foreign
Policy,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/10/this_week_at_war_if_
mexico_is_at_war_does_america_have_to_win_it
Most significantly, a strengthening Mexican insurgency would very likely
affect America's role in the rest of the world. An increasingly chaotic
American side of the border, marked by bloody cartel wars,
corrupted government and media, and a breakdown in security,
would likely cause many in the United States to question the
importance of military and foreign policy ventures elsewhere in the
world. Should the southern border become a U.S. president's primary national security concern,
nervous allies and opportunistic adversaries elsewhere in the world
would no doubt adjust to a distracted and inward-looking America,
with potentially disruptive arms races the result. Secretary Clinton has looked
south and now sees an insurgency. Let's hope that the United States can apply
what it has recently learned about insurgencies to stop this one
from getting out of control.

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US Agriculture Impact
That devastates US agriculture by raising labor and wage
costs and decreasing competition.
J. Edward Taylor and Diane Charlton, March 8 2013, Why are
Mexicans leaving farm work, and what does this mean for US farmers?;
Edward Taylor is Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics and
Director of the Center on Rural Economies of the Americas and Pacific Rim
(REAP) at the University of California, Davis, where he teaches courses on
international development economics and econometric methods; Diane
Charlton is a PhD student in Agricultural and Resource Economics at the
University of California, Davis; Oxford University Press;
http://blog.oup.com/2013/03/mexicans-farm-work-united-states/, KTG
The received wisdom in development economics is that the domestic supply of agricultural labor starts out being
the farm labor supply shifts inward and

becomes less elastic as countries per-capita incomes increase and
people shift from farm to nonfarm jobs. In order to induce domestic workers to supply their
relatively elastic (i.e., abundant), but
labor to farm jobs, agricultural wages must rise apace with nonagricultural wages. This is all the more true if non-farm jobs
bring non-pecuniary benefits compared to farm jobs and/or workers associate farm jobs with drudgery. Tighter border
enforcement and drug-related violence along the border may deter migration, but our analysis suggests that for US
agriculture their main effect is largely secondary, reinforcing a negative trend in rural Mexicans willingness to do
the share of Mexican immigrants

working in agriculture decreased more than the share working in
non-agriculture. The recession had a large negative impact on construction and service jobs in the non-farm
farmwork. For example, after the great recession in 2008,
sector while labor demand in the farm sector remained steady and commodity prices rose. If unemployed workers in the
non-farm sector sought jobs on US farms during the recession, then one might expect the supply of agricultural labor to
increase. Data show that some immigrants did shift from non-farm to farm work after the recession, but more shifted from
If the decrease in immigration in recent years were

the result of increases in border patrol or drug-related violence,
then the decrease in farm labor supply should be similar to the
decrease in non-farm labor supply, but the data show the opposite.
US agriculture appears to be doubly adversely affected by the
decline in the supply of immigrant labor and a shift in the Mexican
labor supply away from farmwork. IMPLICATIONS FOR US AGRICULTURE A declining
farm labor supply in rural Mexico and competition from Mexicos
farmers combine to raise the reservation wage of migrating to the
United Statesthat is, the minimum US farm wage needed to induce
new workers to migrate northward to farm jobs. US growers must look for substitute
farm to non-farm in the US.
inputs to agricultural production as the supply of agricultural workers is declines.
That creates a cascade effect collapses the entire

industry
Lynch 3 Critical Mass: Does the Number of Productive Farmland Acres or
Farms Affect Farmland Loss? Lori Lynch; associate professor at the

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland;
2003, http://www.farmlandinfo.org/documents/36924/Critical_Mass.pdf
Rural economies that
are highly dependent on agricultural industries may suffer
negative consequences when agricultural land is converted
many counties are trying to
determine how much agricultural land must be retained to ensure
Many reasons exist for retaining farmland. Metropolitan residents have expressed concern about the loss of the amenities that farmland provides.
. Society as a whole may
wish to retain an agricultural sector in order to maximize its welfare, or economic well-being. Given such motives,

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a viable agricultural economy

officials
need to determine how much agricultural land is enough, to ensure
this retention
The idea
that a critical mass of agricultural activity must be sustained in
order for an areas agricultural economy to remain viable has a
certain logic
As
production levels decline below a given threshold, costs will rise
and support businesses will close or relocate. If input and output
firms exit the county, the closest input supplier not only may be
farther away for a farmer, but also may charge higher prices
because of reduced competition and the need to
cover fixed costs
if the nearest processor goes out of business
because it cannot cover its fixed costs with a shrinking farm
production, the nearest outlet for the product might involve
additional transportation costs or a lower purchase price, either
raising farmers production costs or decreasing their revenue
A decline in agriculture profits
and thus a higher relative return for conversion to residential,
recreational, or forestry uses may increase the rate of loss of
farms and farmland in the area.
and the long-term preservation of amenities associated with farms and farmland. Government
. Therefore, it is important to establish whether the rate of farmland loss is affected by the level of agricultural activity within an area.
. The critical mass concept is based on the idea that economies of scale exist in both input and output businesses and services that are essential to agriculture.
for inputs,
veterinarian services, and equipment repairs
. Similarly,
. 3 Changes in
farmers comparative advantage and their net revenues alter the relative returns of exiting farming.
Agriculture is the biggest impactturns war and the

environment, and ag loss results in extinction.
Lugar 4 (Richard G., U.S. Senator Indiana and Former Chair Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, Plant Power, Our Planet, 14(3),
http://www.unep.org/ourplanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning nuclear threats and other
of the long-range challenges. But we do so at our peril. One of

the most daunting of them is meeting the worlds need for food and
energy in this century. At stake is not only preventing starvation and
saving the environment, but also world peace and security . History tells
us that states may go to war over access to resources, and that poverty
and famine have often bred fanaticism and terrorism. Working to
feed the world will minimize factors that contribute to global
instability and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction . With
the world population expected to grow from 6 billion people today to 9 billion by mid-century, the
demand for affordable food will increase well beyond current international
production levels. People in rapidly developing nations will have the means
greatly to improve their standard of living and caloric intake . Inevitably,
that means eating more meat. This will raise demand for feed grain at the same
time that the growing world population will need vastly more basic
food to eat. Complicating a solution to this problem is a dynamic that must be better understood in
crises, it is easy to lose sight
the West: developing countries often use limited arable land to expand cities to house their growing
As good land disappears, people destroy timber resources

and even rainforests as they try to create more arable land to feed
themselves. The long-term environmental consequences could be
disastrous for the entire globe. Productivity revolution To meet the expected demand for
populations.
food over the next 50 years, we in the United States will have to grow roughly three times more food on
the land we have. Thats a tall order. My farm in Marion County, Indiana, for example, yields on average
8.3 to 8.6 tonnes of corn per hectare typical for a farm in central Indiana. To triple our production by
2050, we will have to produce an annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare. Can we possibly boost output

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that much? Well, its been done before. Advances in the use of fertilizer and water, improved machinery
and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold increase in yields since 1935 on our farm
back then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3 tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen similar increases.
But of course there is no guarantee that we can achieve those results again. Given the urgency of
expanding food production to meet world demand, we must invest much more in scientific
research and target that money toward projects that promise to have significant national
and global impact. For the United States, that will mean a major shift in the way we conduct and
fund agricultural science. Fundamental research will generate the innovations that will be
necessary to feed the world. The United States can take a leading
position in a productivity revolution. And our success at increasing
food production may play a decisive humanitarian role in the survival of
billions of people and the health of our planet .

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Non-Unique
Relations improving now Okinawa proves
Fackler 4/6/13 (Martin Fackler, Tokyo bureau chief of New York Times,
foreign
correspondent covering business and economics for the Tokyo bureau, B.A. in Asian Studies, April 6, 2013.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/06/world/asia/us-and-japan-reach-deal-onreturning-okinawa-land.html?_r=0), KTG
TOKYO -- The United States and Japan agreed Friday on a new timetable
for the return to Japan of a Marine airfield and other military bases
on Okinawa, moving to solve a long-festering issue that has
bedeviled America's ties with its largest Asian ally. By agreeing to a clear
timetable for the return of 2,500 acres, both nations are hoping to entice Okinawans to drop their
opposition to the air base, which Washington and Tokyo want to move to another part of the island but
which many Okinawans want to move off the island. Fierce local opposition has kept Japan from being able
to follow through on a deal originally made in 1996 to allow the base and its noisy aircraft to be relocated
to a less populated area of the island. Japan's hawkish new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has been trying to
many
Japanese to support strengthening the alliance with the United
States, Japan's longtime protector. The deal on Friday could help Mr. Abe politically, by making clear
revive the long-stalled deal at a time of increasing tensions with China that have led
what Okinawans stand to gain by agreeing to keep the base. It could also help the Obama administration
if it finally leads to the end of an impasse that has left the future of the important air base in limbo, and
that has undermined the Obama administration's strategic ''pivot'' to Asia. Announcing the new
agreement in a room filled with American and Japanese flags, Mr. Abe called it a significant step toward
reducing the huge American military presence on Okinawa, a legacy of the United States' occupation of
that tropical island after World War II. The base relocation is the centerpiece of a broader deal to eventually
move some 9,000 Marines to bases in Guam, Hawaii and Australia. ''We are able to make progress in
reducing Okinawa's burden in a visible manner,'' Mr. Abe said, joined by a dozen American and Japanese
officials. ''I am extremely glad that everybody could sit down together today and reach a conclusion on this
intractable issue.'' Friday's agreement tries to restart that plan by setting a target date of returning the
Futenma base, in the center of the city of Ginowan, by as early as 2022, provided the replacement air base
is operational. It also lays out a timetable for handing over five other American bases also in the crowded
southern half of the island by the late 2020s. Under the timetable, the first parcel -- an access road and
surrounding land totaling 2.5 acres -- would be turned over to Japan this year. In a bid to increase
transparency and accountability, the new timetable also includes flowcharts outlining which government
agencies in both countries need to take what steps for the land to be returned on schedule. American and
Japanese officials said this was to prevent the deal from getting bogged down in murky bureaucratic
For the Obama administration, the

agreement is meant not only to shore up one of America's most
important security relationships in Asia, but also to demonstrate to other regional
proceedings, as happened in the past.
allies, as well as rivals, that the United States has the willpower to maintain its security presence despite
its budget difficulties and fatigue from wars in the Middle East. ''This sends a clear signal to the region
that we are committed to making hard choices to keep our force posture in Okinawa,'' said Mark Lippert,
assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs, who visited Tokyo to complete the agreement.
For Mr. Abe, restarting the relocation plan would fulfill a campaign
pledge to improve ties with the United States as his nation faces a growing
challenge from China over disputed islands near Okinawa. Becoming a fuller military partner of the United
States has been a centerpiece of the prime minister's bid to reverse his nation's declining stature in the
region after years of economic stagnation and its relative eclipse by China's rise. However, he is also
taking a political risk on an agreement that may fail to appease Okinawans' anger over what they see as
an unfairly onerous American base presence. The Abe government has been trying to whittle away at
Okinawans' opposition with offers of generous financial aid and other efforts to court the island's governor,
Hirokazu Nakaima, a base opponent who is a member of Mr. Abe's conservative governing party. In a sign
the government's tactics may be working, Mr. Nakaima offered uncharacteristic words of praise Friday,
though he warned that the central government still had to win over other local leaders. ''I think it is
extremely good that the government is buckling down to deal in concrete terms with the return of bases,''
Mr. Nakaima told reporters in Naha, the Okinawan capital. ''But it is hard to evaluate the plan until I have
had a chance to consult with mayors of the affected communities.'' One sticking point might be the
timetable for moving the base, which is now pushed back another nine years. Under an earlier version of

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the deal in 2006, it would have been relocated next year. The original agreement to move the base was
reached in 1996 after the gang rape of an Okinawan schoolgirl by American servicemen.
US and Japan working together now

Defense Daily March 11, 2013
(http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/lnacui2api/results/
docview/docview.do?
docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T17425022451&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&s
tartDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T17425022455&cisb=22_T17425022454&tr
eeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=156289&docNo=2), KTG
The United States and Japan yesterday in Tokyo held their first
meeting of the Comprehensive Dialogue on Space, according to a Defense
Department statement. DoD said the convening of this first Dialogue ensures a wholeof-government approach to space issues and space cooperation relevant
to a wide range of interests, including resource and disaster management, environmental
monitoring, technology development, scientific discovery, national and international security and economic
growth. The two nations at the meeting exchanged information on respective space policies, including
Japan's newly formed Basic Plan on Space Policy. The United States and Japan also discussed further
collaboration in positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services from the U.S. Global Positioning System
(GPS) and the Japanese Quasi-Zenith Satellite U.S., HJSystem (QZSS) as well as earth observation, data
Both sides also shared the intention to continue

cooperation on the International Space Station (ISS) and discussions
regarding future space exploration activities. Both nations discussed space security
cooperation and confirmed their interest in furthering bilateral Space
Situational Awareness (SSA). The United States and Japan also re-affirmed their interest in
exchange and space science.
collaboration in the use of space for Maritime Domain Awareness. Both nations agreed to hold the second
Dialogue meeting in Washington in early 2014.
US and Japan are discussing defense cooperation now

BBC Worldwide Monitoring January 20, 2013
(http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/lnacui2api/results/
docview/docview.do?
The 17 January 2013 edition of CCTV-4 "Focus Today" (Jin Ri Guan Zhu), a 30-minute current affairs
program broadcast daily at 1330-1400 gmt, features a discussion on United States and Japan revising their
guidelines for bilateral defence cooperation. The program is hosted by Gang Qiang and attended by CCTV
contributing commentators Yang Bojiang, researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy
of Social Sciences, and Yin Zhuo, CCTV contributing commentator and military expert. The host begins the
meeting between the United States and

Japan to revise their guidelines for bilateral defence cooperation . Gang
Qiang adds that the meeting will focus on strengthening Japan's Ground Self-Defence Force (GSDF) to
play a substantial role in providing wartime assistance to the United
States. Gang also mentions that efforts to revise the guidelines are expected to be made alongside
program by briefly commenting on the
discussions on enabling Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defence. The program then plays a
video clip about the topic. Yin Zhuo says that Japan deliberately bundles up its objective of expanding its
defence boundaries with the United States combat requirements because the key to expanding GSDF roles
lies with the United States. Yin adds that "the
United States is lacking in military and financial

strength to make a comeback in Asia and requires help from a capable ally like
Japan." Yin also says that if Japan is allowed to provide wartime assistance to the United States then "its
defence boundaries will be equivalent to that of the United States." Commenting on the deployment of
nine F-22 stealth fighters at Kadena base in Okinawa Prefecture for four-months, Yin says that " the

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United States is sending a message that it is the ultimate decision maker on whether
to go to war and that Japan's role is only to complement the United States ."
Yin adds that Japan must realize that China is a very important market for the United States and Japan's
economy cannot compare with China. Commenting on the relationship between revising US-Japan
bilateral defence cooperation guidelines and enabling Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defence,
Yang Bojiang says that "after the war it is a common Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) trick to use external
pressures to promote change in domestic defense policies." Yang adds that the rise of China provided a
common need for the United States and Japan to target China.
US and Japan already have bilateral ties

Nation News Network May 2, 2012 (bilateral ties US, Japan leaders
join forces on North KoreaObama: Pyongyang operating from a position of

weakness not strength
http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/lnacui2api/results/d
ocview/docview.do?
Associated Press Washington President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime
Minister Yoshihiko Noda
yesterday decried aggressive acts from North Korea,
including its recent failed rocket launch, and vowed to maintain a unified front against
such provocations. Obama said Pyongyang is operating from a position of weakness, not strength, and
Noda said the launch undermined diplomacy to contain North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Obama said the
US and Japan, along with other countries in the region are unified in insisting that North Korea abide by its
international responsibilities. "The old pattern of provocation that then gets attention and somehow insists
on the world purchasing good behaviour from them, that pattern is broken," Obama said in a joint news
conference with Noda at the White House. Such actions, Obama said, "only serve to deepen Pyongyang's
isolation". North Korea fired a three-stage rocket earlier this month over the Yellow Sea, defying
international warnings against what the US and other nations said would violate bans against nuclear and
missile activity. In response to the launch, the US suspended an agreement to provide food aid to North
Korea. Noda, standing next to Obama in the White House East Room, said that given North Korea's past
practice, there appeared to be a good chance that it would undertake yet another nuclear test. The
Japanese prime minister said China remains an important player in trying to restrain North Korea's nuclear
Noda was in Washington looking to reaffirm Japan's strong

alliance with the US and to boost his leadership credentials as his popularity flags at home.
programme.
Noda, who came to power in September and is Japan's sixth prime minister in six years, faces huge
challenges in reviving a long-slumbering economy and helping his nation recover from the worst nuclear
crisis since Chernobyl. Noda later was toasted at a gala dinner by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who
said that Americans were inspired by Japan's response to last year's tsunami devastation. "Japan has
remained an indispensable world leader even in the face of unthinkable tragedy," Clinton said. Obama
praised Noda and the Japanese people for their recovery after the
disasters. His Oval Office meeting and working lunch with Obama, as
well as the news conference showed that the two sides are
determined to show that US-Japan ties are as close as ever. The US
alliance with Japan, the world's third-largest economy, is at the core of Obama's
expanded engagement in Asia a diplomatic thrust motivated in part by a desire to
also
counter the growing economic and military clout of strategic rival China. t-2.000Their meeting takes place
during a delicate time in US-China relations, as the two world powers reportedly negotiate an asylum deal
for a blind Chinese legal activist who escaped from house arrest. Activists say he is under the protection of
US diplomats in Beijing, but Obama would not comment on the diplomatically sensitive case during the
news conference. He did add, however, that the issue of human rights is a recurrent one in US meetings
with China. "It is our belief that not only is that the right thing to do because it comports with our
principles and our belief in freedom and human rights, but also because we actually think China will be
Obama and Noda said

they want to strengthen the US-Japan security alliance. The US has about
stronger as it opens up and liberalises its own system," he said. t-1.300
50,000 troops in Japan, and both sides never tire of saying that their defence cooperation underpins

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the US and Japan announced an

agreement to shift about 9,000 Marines stationed on the Japanese
island of Okinawa an announcement Obama reiterated yesterday. The plan would spread US
regional peace and security. Days before Noda's visit,
forces more widely in the Asia-Pacific as part of a rebalancing of US defence priorities after a decade of war
It is a move also aimed at easing what Okinawans view as a

a long-term irritant in
bilateral relations. But there's still no timetable and the plan faces opposition in Okinawa and in
in Iraq and Afghanistan.
burdensome US military presence and goes some way to ameliorate
Congress. Noda is the first Japanese leader to be hosted at the White House since his Democratic Party of
Japan, which had an initially awkward relationship with Washington, came to power in the autumn of 2009.
The party had at first favoured a foreign policy more independent of the United States. Noda is seen in
Washington as capable and practical. The Obama administration hopes he can weather his political
problems and stick around longer than his immediate predecessors. His support in polls has dwindled to
below 30 per cent as he pushes an unpopular rise in a consumption tax to tackle Japan's vast national debt
and looming social security crisis to cope with the nation's ageing population. No breakthroughs on trade
were anticipated at the summit. Obama said both sides would continue discussions about Japan's interest
in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a pact under negotiation by nine nations and a key plank in US trade
strategy to crank up its exports to support America's fragile recovery after the global slowdown. With
Japanese farmers protesting that the trade deal would destroy their livelihoods, a joint statement between
Obama and Noda said only that they "continue to advance our ongoing bilateral consultations" on the
pact. While Noda is believed to be personally supportive of declaring Japan's intent to join the talks, he
faces opposition at home, even within his own party. The pact could demand an assault on the heavy
subsidies enjoyed by Japan's farmers.

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North Korea
Increasing US-Japan Relations threatens North Korea
BBC Worldwide Monitoring September 28, 2012 (North Korean party organ
denounces US-Japan plans "to tighten military nexus"
ocview/docview.do?
eeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10962&docNo=10, KTG
Text of report in English by state-run North Korean news agency KCNA website Pyongyang, September 28:
Tension remains high on the Korean Peninsula and the situation has
not been improved in the Asia-Pacific region entirely because the
U.S. and Japanese reactionaries are keen to tighten their political
and military nexus, says Nodong Sinmun Friday [28 September] in a bylined article. The article
goes on: The U.S. president said at a recent press conference that "the U.S.-Japan alliance is a cornerstone
for ensuring peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region." The U.S. secretary of Defence blustered "the
U.S.-Japan alliance has been a foundation of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region for decades."
Timed to coincide with these outbursts, the Japanese authorities including the prime minister cried out for
steadily preserving the U.S.-Japan "security pact" for "stability" in the region. Lurking behind their reckless
remarks are black-hearted intentions of the U.S. and Japan to contain and stamp out the progressive forces
in the region and realize their scenarios for hegemony and reinvasion. The tightened alliance between the
U.S. and Japan means beefing up their aggressor forces. The U.S. is busy amassing huge forces in its
strongholds of military and strategic importance and major areas rich in resources under the signboard of
The U.S-Japan "security pact" is aimed at

perpetrating aggression and war against other countries. The "pact"
is a factor of increasing the danger of a war in the Asia-Pacific region
and threatening peace and security there. Its main spearhead is
directed to the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. and Japanese reactionaries consider it as
"stability" and the like.
their primary task for carrying out their Asia-Pacific strategy to keep South Korea as a nuclear outpost and
contain the DPRK [North Korea] by using it as a springboard. Hence ,
they are beefing up the

U.S. forces in South Korea and reducing it into a hotbed of a war.
Peace and security can never settle in the Asia-Pacific region as long
as the U.S. and Japanese reactionaries persist in their criminal
moves, concludes the article. Source: KCNA website, Pyongyang, in English 0730gmt 28 Sep 12
North Korean war leads to massive conflict, economic

collapse and a decline in US leadership
Glosserman 3
Brad, Director of Research at Pacific Forum CSIS, 11-4-2003, US-China: the

next alliance?, http://www.glocom.org/debates/20031104_gloss_us/
Failure to reach a negotiated solution could trigger a war in Northeast Asia, bringing untold
devastation to both North and South Korea, and possibly Japan. War, or even the fear of war,
could unleash waves of refugees. The economies of South Korea and Japan
would be hard hit, and the ripples would spread through China as well, destroying the stability
that is the prerequisite for economic development. Failure to cap the North Korean nuclear threat would
oblige Japan to look hard at the utility of its alliance with the United States. While a nuclear-armed North
Korea should not in itself be enough to challenge the credibility of the US commitment to defend Japan ,
could raise questions about US leadership and Washington's ability

to manage regional security problems. Similarly, a North Korean nuclear weapon
should not oblige South Korea to rethink its military posture, but, it might also be forced to reassess its
it

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views of American leadership. Success would strengthen the NPT, reaffirm the antinuclear norm, and
restore faith in US leadership in the region. If the deal unfolds as I anticipate, encompassing security,
political, economic and energy components, then it would reintegrate North Korea into the community of
Northeast Asian nations and beyond, and could ease the deprivation of the North Korean people. The
mechanism created to confirm North Korean nuclear disarmament could be used for other military threats
or, as I have proposed, the creation of a regional facility to dispose of the tens of thousands of tonnes of
nuclear waste building up throughout East Asia.
Economic decline increases the risk of warthere is

strong statistical support.
Royal, Director at the Department of Defense, 2010
Jedidiah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S.

Department of Defense, M.Phil. Candidate at the University of New South
Wales, 2010 (Economic Integration, Economic Signalling and the Problem of
Economic Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political
Perspectives, Edited by Ben Goldsmith and Jurgen Brauer, Published by
Emerald Group Publishing, ISBN 0857240048, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood
of external conflict . Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention
to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states.
Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable
contributions follow. First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996)
rhythms in the global economy are

associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often
bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous
shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative
power (see also Gilpin. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances,
work on leadership cycle theory, finding that
increasing the risk of miscalculation
(Feaver, 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively
certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may
seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major,
medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global
economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's
(1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that
interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view
of future trade relations. However,
if the expectations of future trade decline,

the likelihood
particularly for difficult [end page 213] to replace items such as energy resources,
for conflict increases , as states will be inclined to use force to gain

access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased
trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by
interdependent states.4 Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external
armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal
conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write, The
linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are

strong and mutually reinforcing . Economic conflict tends to spawn
internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour . Moreover, the
presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which
international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg
& Hess, 2002. p. 89)
Economic decline has also been linked with an increase

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(Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004),
which has the
capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions .

Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government.
Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from
economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to
fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the
flag' effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995). and Blomberg, Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting
evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997),
Miller (1999), and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics
are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are
generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000)
periods of weak economic performance in the

United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically linked to an
increase in the use of force. In summary, recent economic scholarship positively correlates
economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political
science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at
systemic, dyadic and national levels .5 This implied connection between integration,
has provided evidence showing that
crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves
This observation is not contradictory to other perspectives that
link economic interdependence with a decrease in the likelihood of external
conflict, such as those mentioned in the first paragraph of this chapter. [end page 214] Those
studies tend to focus on dyadic interdependence instead of global interdependence and do not
more attention.
specifically consider
the occurrence of and conditions created by
such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
economic crises. As

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China
Increasing US-Japan Relations lead to China War
BBC Worldwide Monitoring July 26, 2012 (Chinese TV show discusses US
deployment of military aircraft in Japan
ocview/docview.do?
The 25 July 2012 edition of CCTV-4 "Focus Today" [Jin Ri Guan Zhu], a 30-minute current affairs programme
broadcast daily at 1330-1400 GMT, features a discussion on the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands. The
programme is hosted by Gang Qiang and attended by CCTV contributing commentators, Yin Zhuo and Luo
Yuan. The host begins the programme by briefly commenting on Japan's plan to nationalize the Diaoyu
(Senkaku) Islands. The programme then plays a video clip featuring the news. After viewing the video clip,
the host and commentators discuss the US State Department official's statement that the Diaoyu
(Senkaku) Islands fall within the scope of Article 5 of the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and
Security. Yin Zhuo says that the United States maintains a level of ambiguity on the issue regarding the
Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands. Yin says that the United States only recognizes Japan's administrative control
over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands and holds the position that the sovereignty issue must be sorted out
Yin also condemns the United States for "illegally"

handing Okinawa to Japan without following any proper procedure at the UN. Yin then says
between Japan and China.
that Japan does not have sovereignty over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands and Okinawa and therefore that it
is not legitimate for the United States and Japan to include both areas under the US-Japan security treaty.
Luo Yuan also agrees with Yin's argument and says that legally and historically Japan does not have
sovereignty over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands and Okinawa. Thus, they should not be included under the
US-Japan security treaty, Luo argues. Luo then says that the Treaty of San Francisco is illegal since China
was not a participant. Luo also stresses that Okinawa is not part of Japan given the historical fact that it
used to be a tributary state to China. Yin then criticizes Japanese politicians of both ruling and opposition
parties for using the dispute over the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands to increase their political gains during an
election year. During the rest of the programme, the host and commentators also discuss the US
deployment of a squadron of F-22 jet fighters to Okinawa and the upcoming release of Japan's 2012
While commenting on the

recent US deployment of Osprey and F-22 aircrafts to Okinawa, Luo
says that the move is aimed at the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands as well
as big Chinese cities such as Shanghai. Yin says that the US deployment of F-22 jet
fighters is part of its Air-Sea Battle Concept to contain China. Luo says that China must
adopt stronger actions to counter the increasingly aggressive
military maneuvers of the United States and Japan over the Diaoyu (Senkaku)
Islands. If Japan decides to build military installations on the islands, then it means war for
China and will be necessary for China to respond with military
actions. While commenting on Japan's 2012 Defence White Paper, Yin says that Japanese government
Defence White Paper, which highlights China's military threat.
is trying to scare the Japanese people and convince them of the necessity of beefing up the Japan SelfDefense Forces.
The impact is nuclear war in the most populated region

Hughes 6
Mark W. Hughes, Is China Preparing for War?, Thursday, February 16, 2006,
pg. http://peakoil.blogspot.com/2006/02/is-china-preparing-forwar.html#comments,
Moreover, once one side sees that it is clearly loosing, and if the
stakes are high for each nation, then there is a strong
possibility that the losing side will attempt to gain some
advantage by utilizing nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Once

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a war has gone nuclear, escalation is almost inevitable, as the

other side retaliates, and the targets of the nuclear exchanges
become more significant until a full-scale nuclear war in which
populations of the largest cities will likely be targeted and
killed. The implications of even a small-scale nuclear exchange
(to the extent a nuclear exchange can be small-scale) in Central
Eurasia are staggering . The death toll would be in the millions
and the region would be poisoned with radiation and fallout .
Since China lacks the massive nuclear arsenal of Russia, even a
full-scale nuclear exchange would not quite be the global
doomsday scenario that would arise from a U.S.-Russian
exchange, since the total number of nuclear detonations would
be barely more than half of the doomsday scenario and would
be restricted to a much more narrow targeting area. But the
war would take place in the most populated part of the entire
world, Central Eurasia, and where a huge amount of global
resources are found. The radiation and fallout would affect
other large parts of the world, and the death toll from the initial
nuclear detonations combined with those suffering radiation
sickness and long-term related illnesses would no doubt be in
the hundreds of millions. And of course, the political and
economic impacts would be earth-shattering , especially in light
of the scenarios leading up to the war and if North Korea were
enlisted to attack South Korea at the same time.

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Alt Causes
US-led efforts to include Japan in Trans Pacific Partnership
strengthen relations
Washington Post 2013 (The Washington Post 3/17/2013 Partners with
Japan
http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/hottopics/lnacadem
ic/), KTG
THERE WAS a time, a couple of decades ago, when the trade relationship between the United States and
Japan was one of the hottest policy issues in Washington. The rise of China, coupled with Japan's two
decades of economic stagnation, eclipsed concerns - overblown in hindsight - about this country's chronic
trade deficit with Japan. Now,
U.S.-Japan trade is once again rising on the policy
agenda, and it's critical for both countries and for the world that Americans avoid the simplistic and
emotional arguments that marred past debates. On Friday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
announced that Japan will join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
free-trade talks, a U.S.-led effort to bind a dozen Pacific Rim nations in a tariff-slashing
pact that will boost efficiency and growth across a region that, including Japan, accounts for 40 percent of
the world's economic output. Mr. Abe did so at considerable political risk, because the prospect of
liberalized imports frightens Japan's farmers and other entrenched interest groups. Mr. Abe recognizes that
greater international competition could spur much-needed restructuring of Japan's domestic economy,
which, along with monetary expansion and fiscal stimulus, is one of the new prime minister's three policy
"arrows."
A TPP deal that includes Japan could fortify the U.S.-Japan

alliance as a peaceful counterweight to an ambitious China. TPP,
therefore, serves U.S. strategic, as well as economic, interests . Alas,
some of the same voices that often oppose free trade are already raising red flags. On Thursday, eight
senators and 35 members of the House, all Democrats, sent President Obama a letter complaining about
U.S. carmakers' historical lack of access to Japan's auto market, suggesting that, with a year-end deadline
for completing the talks, it's too late to resolve "these long-standing, economically harmful practices." But
the point of free trade is to enable each country to maximize its comparative advantages, not to guarantee
equal flows of every good in each direction. Actually, the potential opening of Japan's agricultural and
other markets to U.S. goods under TPP could offset deficits that might persist in the auto market. The twin
goals of shoring up Asian allies and reducing our trade deficit would also be served by maximizing U.S.
natural gas exports - especially to Japan, which is eager for stable new energy supplies to replace lost
nuclear generating capacity. Again, some in Congress object, on the protectionist grounds that exports
would raise the price of gas for U.S. users, both industrial and residential. And, once again, Economics 101
argues for the freest possible trade. Robust foreign demand for U.S. gas will promote greater production
over the long run, and the additional supply will help moderate prices at home and abroad. Fortunately,
Mr. Obama has embraced the strategic and economic potential of

TPP and of a similar proposed agreement with Europe. To bring them into being, he'll have to push back
against those in his own country, and his own party, who can't let go of yesteryear'strade conflicts.
Humanitarian relief efforts and economic ties bolster USJapan Relations

Congress Research Service 5/1/2013 (Emma Chanlett-Avery
Specialist in Asian Affairs, Mark E. Manyin Specialist in Asian Affairs, William

H. Cooper Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart
Analyst in Asian Affairs Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress Summary
May 1, 2013 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33436.pdf), KTG
Japan is a significant partner for the United States in a number of
foreign policy areas, particularly in terms of security priorities, from hedging against Chinese
military modernization to countering threats from North Korea. The post-World War II U.S.-Japan alliance
has long been an anchor of the U.S. security role in East Asia. The alliance facilitates the forward
deployment of about 49,000 U.S. troops and other U.S. military assets based in Japan in the Asia-Pacific.
Japan has struggled to find political stability in the past seven years. Since 2007, six men have been

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prime minister, including the current premier Shinzo Abe, who also held the post in 2006- 2007. His
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in a landslide election in December 2012. Japans
leaders face daunting tasks: an increasingly assertive China, a weak economy, and rebuilding from the
devastating March 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster. In recent years, opposition control of
one chamber of parliament has paralyzed policymaking in Tokyo and made U.S.-Japan relations difficult to
manage despite overall shared national interests. Abe is unlikely to pursue controversial initiatives before
the next national elections, for the Upper House of parliament (called the Diet) in July 2013. Perhaps most
significantly, the United States could become directly involved in a military conflict between Japan and
China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islets in the East China Sea. Comments and actions on controversial
historical issues by Prime Minister Abe and his cabinet have raised concern that Tokyo could upset
regional relations in ways that hurt U.S. interests. Abe is known as a strong nationalist. Abes approach
to issues like the so-called comfort women sex slaves from the World War II era, history textbooks,
visits to the Yasukuni Shrine that honors Japans war dead, and statements on a territorial dispute with
will be closely monitored by Japans neighbors as well as the United States.

The massive and immediate humanitarian relief provided by the
United States following the March 2011 triple disaster bolstered
the bilateral alliance, but difficult issues remain, particularly those related to the stationing of
South Korea
marines on Okinawa. Washington and Tokyo have agreed to relocate several thousand marines from
Okinawa to Guam and other locations in the region, but the two governments have been unable to make
tangible progress on implementing a 2006 agreement to relocate the controversial Futenma Marine
Corps Air Station to a less densely populated location on Okinawa. In addition, the U.S. Congress has
restricted funding for the realignment because of concerns and uncertainty about the cost of the
Japan is one of the United States most important
economic partners. Outside of North America, it is the United
States second-largest export market and second-largest source of
imports. Japanese firms are the United States second-largest
source of foreign direct investment, and Japanese investors are the
second-largest foreign holders of U.S. treasuries. In April 2013, the United
realignment plans.
States and the 10 other countries participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement
(FTA) negotiations completed discussions with Japan and invited Tokyo to join the talks. Accordingly, the
Obama Administration notified Congress of its intent to launch negotiations no earlier than 90 calendar
days hence. Japans membership in the TPP, if an agreement is reached, would constitute a de facto U.S. Japan FTA. Congress must approve implementing legislation if the TPP is to apply to the United States.
Japans participation in the talks could enhance the credibility and viability of the TPP, which is a core
component of Administration efforts to rebalance U.S. foreign policy priorities.

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A2 TPP

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Defense

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1NC Defense
Not coming this yearmultiple warrants.
Tracy Watkins, May 21 2013, Trans-Pacific Partnership deal unlikely this
year http://www.truthabouttrade.org/2013/05/21/trans-pacific-partnershipdeal-unlikely-this-year/, KTG
A heavyweight lineup of former United States trade representatives
have delivered a gloomy prognosis on the likelihood of the
controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal being wrapped up this year. US
President Barack Obama has signalled he wants a deal this year but
a New Zealand-US gathering in Washington today heard that was
unlikely. Im optimistic it will be done Im not optimistic it will be done this year, former USTR
Carla Hills told about 275 delegates at the US-New Zealand partnership forum. That view was shared by
US trade representatives Charlene Barshefsky, William Brock, Mickey Cantor, Susan Schwab and Clayton
Yeutter. The TPP aims to stitch together a free-trade agreement between the US and a number of Asia
But there is growing

domestic opposition to the deal in a number of member countries
because of potentially sweeping changes related to intellectual
property protection, pharmaceutical subsidies, foreign investment
rules and other changes. Japan joined the negotiations this year and there have been mixed
Pacific countries including New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia and others.
views about whether its presence will slow the negotiations. But the panel of USTRs said that without
Japan the TPP may never have been done. Yeutter said he was not sure the deal would have got through
the US Congress without Japan on board because the TPP was too small without them. But he agreed that
everyone was being too optimistic about the deal being done this
year. I dont think its a prayer it will get done this year, he said. I dont think they
would have gotten it done this year even if Japan had not come in.
The TPP fails:

A) Too large and large ambitionhurts US economic
security.
Fergusson et al. April 15, 2013, The Trans-Pacific Partnership
Negotiations and Issues for Congress, Ian F. Fergusson- coordinator for FAS
and specialist in International trade and finance, William H. Cooper- associate
at FAS and specialist in international trade and finance, Remy Jurenasspecialist in agricultural policy, Brock R. Williams- Analyst in International
trade and Finance, Federation of American Scientists,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42694.pdf, KTG
The potential Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement may have a large impact on U.S. trade and
trade policy, but much of its substance and its future remains undecided . The
agreement is ambitious in at least three ways : (1) in terms of its size
it would be the largest U.S. FTA by trade flows and could expand in a region that
represents over half of all U.S. trade; (2) the scope and scale of its liberalization
the negotiating partners have expressed an intent to
comprehensively reduce barriers in goods, services, and agricultural
trade as well as rules and disciplines on a wide range of topics including new policy issues that neither
the WTO nor existing FTAs yet cover; and (3) its flexibilitythis living
agreement has been and may continue to be expanded in terms of
its membership and its trade and investment disciplines. Due to this
level of ambition, however, achieving such an agreement may be

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difficult. Differences in opinion exist, both domestically and among

the negotiating partners, on precisely what form the agreements
provisions should take. A broad range of U.S. interests groups view
the TPP as a way to correct flaws in previous U.S. FTAs, but
changes that some groups consider improvements to U.S. trade
policy others see as unwarranted intrusions into other aspects of
public policy, or may contribute to economic insecurity for some
Americans. Even challenges Congressional Research Service 55 The Trans-Pacific Partnership
Negotiations and Issues for Congress with 20th-century trade issues, such as market access for goods,
have yet to be resolved among the TPP partners.
B) Too many riders and special interest giveaways.

David Brodwin, April 19 2013, Obama's Pacific Trade Deal Is No Deal At
All US News, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economicintelligence/2013/04/19/trans-pacific-partnership-strikes-a-blow-againstgrowth-and-sustainable-development, KTG

Question: When is a Trade Pact not a Trade Pact? Answer: When it protects
legacy industries from competition and strips from governments the
means to manage their own economies. With little attention from the media, an
agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership is being negotiated
among the U.S. and other Pacific Rim nations. The TPP has been
positioned as merely a trade deal, to harmonize tariffs and other trade rules and
promote trade among the countries involved. But it's much more than that.
Described as a "stealthy delivery mechanism for policies that could
not survive public scrutiny" the pact aims to severely curtail
government authority at all levels. Meanwhile, it would greatly encourage predatory
trade that harms communities and the environment. [See a collection of political cartoons on the
economy.] This deal is bad for the economy, far beyond its impact on specific industries
and communities. Economic vitality depends on constant innovation and evolution. The industries of the
this proposal is
basically being written by lobbyists in legacy industries, and they are using
past need to adapt to new technologies and approaches or get out of the way. But
it to limit their exposure to competition in the marketplace. Here are a few of the most problematic
Many provisions of TPP

have little to do with trade per se. They simply promote the
interests of powerful global industry groups and use legal and
political mechanisms to limit true competition in the market place.
For example: Provisions of SOPA, the so-called "Stop Online Piracy Act" which was
aspects of TPP: A Broad Range of Special Interest Giveaways
rejected last year by Congress. SOPA would give a competitive advantage to the film industry and other
Provisions that would extent

patent protection on pharmaceuticals while restricting governments from negotiating
lower prices. Provisions that would privilege major banks and financial
institutions over credit unions and the emerging sector of public banks. Provisions that
would disadvantage organic farmers and others who adopt safer and more
environmentally-sound agricultural practices. Provisions that would extend the
dominance of coal and oil and hinder alternative energy producers, by
content-creators while restricting innovation on the internet.
blocking regulations and limiting deployment of smart grid and other infrastructure.
C) Kills local industry


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the proposed pact

would ban state and local governments from extending preferences
to vendors of locally-produced goods and services. "Buy American"
programs would be forbidden. Local employers could not be
supported. Local farmers could not be favored.
Attack on Local Economic Development Programs According to leaked drafts,
D) Secret negotiations without public participation

causes policy failure
Secret Negotiations without Public Participation
All TPP negotiations to date have been conducted behind closed
doors. No information has been released to the press and the public;
no public participation or comment is invited or allowed. Even U.S.
Senators have been barred from seeing negotiation points or drafts
yet hundreds of corporate lobbyists are at the table on a regular
basis. Most of the information that has surfaced in public accounts
comes from drafts leaked by participants dissatisfied with one
provision or another. (For example, the Australian negotiating team is reported to have been
upset about a provision which would have banned the way the Australian government negotiates with
pharmaceutical companies. If implemented, this provision would result in a sharp increase in what
It's time to Open Up the Negotiations to

the Public In a global economy, trade policy has sweeping ramifications for
every sector of the economy. Decisions on trade policy are really
decisions on the relative power of corporations and governments.
Australians pay for prescription medication.)
Trade policy affects employment rates, wage levels, the availability of capital, environmental conditions,
We cannot allow negotiations over these vital

things to be conducted by secret bodies, without public oversight,
comment, and ultimately the right of the public to affirm or reject
these agreements. The nature of trade pacts has changed
significantly. Once upon a time, trade negotiations were largely about countries seeking advantage
public health, and much more.
over other countries, or seeking to dismantle tariffs that prevented fair and open competition. Now the
negotiations are about dominant industries seeking to prevent competition rather than encourage it. The
negotiations are about dominant global-scale industries seeking to undercut government efforts to
regulate them in the public interest.
pact" anymore.
There is no such thing as a simple "trade

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2NC
TPP allows corporations to sue governmentsshifts
policies to favor corporations.

A New International Court where Corporations Sue Governments. Once the TPP is signed,
government entities at all levels in the participating countries will
have to change their policies to conform to the agreement. This
means dismantling any regulations, safeguards or incentives they
have enacted to support their economies and provide better lives for
their citizens. A system of tribunals will be set up to hold
governments to account. Corporations could sue governments to
demand the relaxation of standards, and could claim damages from
governments that failed to conform. Under NAFTA, a similar tribunal system has
already levied fines of hundreds of millions; under TPP this would expand greatly.
And the TPP destroys worker safety and regulations.

Threat to the Triple Bottom Line Many jurisdictions have policies to
promote opportunity and ameliorate the severity of market forces.
These include minimum wage laws, laws requiring employers to offer
health insurance, regulations covering product safety, work-place
safety, environmental protection, and more. All of these protections
are at risk under the TPP. For example, the pact would prevent
communities from deciding whether or not they want fracking in
their area.

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1NC
TPP conjoins with ASEAN to destroy the environmentthe
region is a third of the worlds surface and is critical to
global biodiversity.
Arnie Saiki, March 14 2013, TPP V. ASEAN: THE PIVOT AND THE ISLAND
ROWS Coordinator of Moana Nui. (organization against American Pacific
Economic Cooperation) Director of Imipono Projects (to preserve the
statehood of Hawaii),
http://www.inmotionmagazine.com/global/a_saiki_tpp_asean.html, KTG
Despite the proliferation of an alphabet soup of regional economic
integrations, both ASEAN +3/6 and the Trans-Pacific Partnership have
been the dominant regional agreements working to conclude this
year or next. This geo-political football being played out for Asian and Pacific markets and resources are being
competed for primarily between the US and China, and this competition impacts not only rules for investment and trade,
but also human rights, militarization, access to sea-lanes, resource extraction, fisheries, migrant labor, currency and
Whether ASEANs $16.2/19.7tn or the TPPs $26.7tn

alignment, both formations lead to the creation of a Free Trade Area
of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) that threaten the ecological bio-diversity and
resource-rich Pacific Island nations whose economies are so small (on
average, about $450 million) that individually, they will be unable to withstand
the economic pressure coming from the investment regime. The
ecological consequence of an expanded and hyper-globalized supply
chain of this magnitude will be disastrous in an area the third of
the worlds surface that is already confronting challenges to rising
waters resulting from climate change, radiation poisoning, depletion
of fisheries and reefs, and extreme degradation resulting from
industrial extractive technologies. The human and ecological costs
have already impacted Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and heightened
economic hegemony will likely be disastrous.
financial rules, among others. Pacific Plan
Extinction
Science Daily 11 (ScienceDaily, online science newsletter, 8/11/12
Biodiversity Key to Earths Life-Support Functions in a Changing World <
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110811084513.htm>)
biological diversity of organisms on Earth is not just something we enjoy
when taking a walk through a blossoming meadow in spring; it is also the
basis for countless products and services provided by nature, including food,
building materials, and medicines as well as the self-purifying qualities of
water and protection against erosion. These so-called ecosystem services
are what makes Earth inhabitable for humans. They are based on ecological
The
processes, such as photosynthesis, the production of biomass, or nutrient cycles. Since biodiversity is on
the decline, both on a global and a local scale, researchers are asking the question as to what role the
diversity of organisms plays in maintaining these ecological processes and thus in providing the
ecosystem's vital products and services. In an international research group led by Prof. Dr. Michel Loreau
from Canada, ecologists from ten different universities and research institutes, including Prof. Dr. Michael
Scherer-Lorenzen from the University of Freiburg, compiled findings from numerous biodiversity
experiments and reanalyzed them. These experiments simulated the loss of plant species and attempted
to determine the consequences for the functioning of ecosystems, most of them coming to the conclusion
that a higher level of biodiversity is accompanied by an increase in ecosystem processes. However, the
findings were always only valid for a certain combination of environmental conditions present at the

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locations at which the experiments were conducted and for a limited range of ecosystem processes. In a
study published in the current issue of the journal
Nature , the research group investigated the extent
to which the positive effects of diversity still apply under changing environmental conditions and when a
multitude of processes are taken into account. They found that 84 percent of the 147 plant species
included in the experiments promoted ecological processes in at least one case. The more years, locations,
ecosystem processes, and scenarios of global change -- such as global warming or land use intensity -- the
experiments took into account, the more plant species were necessary to guarantee the functioning of the
ecosystems. Moreover, other species were always necessary to keep the ecosystem processes running
more
biodiversity is necessary to keep ecosystems functioning in a world that is
changing ever faster. The protection of diversity is thus a crucial factor
in maintaining Earth's life-support functions.
under the different combinations of influencing factors. These findings indicate that much

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Ext: TPP Hurts Environment

TPP sucks for the environment:
A) Fracking (also a good LNG DA link)
Ilana Soloman, 2012, An Explosion of Fracking? One of the dirtiest
secrets of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement Trade

consultant at SC, http://www.sierraclub.org/trade/downloads/TPPFactsheet.pdf, KTG
One of the dirtiest secrets of the TPP is its potential to pave the way
for dramatically increase fracking across the United States. How the TPP could
increase fracking In order for the United States to export natural gas to
another country, the Department of Energy (DOE) must first conduct a
thorough public analysis to determine whether those exports are
consistent with the public interest. This analysis is critical to understanding the environmental and economic impacts
associated with natural gas exports and to building a deliberate energy policy that protects the interests of the American public. Unfortunately,
the DOE loses its authority to regulate exports of natural gas to
countries with which the United States has a free trade agreement that
includes so-called national treatment for trade in gas. The TPP, therefore, could mean automatic
approval of liquid natural gas (LNG) export permitswithout any review
or considerationto TPP countries. And many TPP countries would
likely be quite interested in importing LNG from the United States. This
is particularly true of Japanthe words single largest LNG importerwhich has formally announced its intention to join the talks. Already, the DOE is considering
Exporting this
volume of US LNG would in turn mean increased fracking, the dirty
and violent process that dislodges gas deposits from shale rock
formations. It would also likely cause an increase in natural gas and electricity pricesup to three times their current price by some estimates
applications to export approximately 45% of the total U.S. domestic gas production. Environmental impacts of natural gas exports
impacting consumers, manufacturers, and workers, while increasing the use of dirty coal power.
B) That kills the environmentpollutant release,

transport, dredging of LNG terminals, and large carbon
footprint.
Ilana Soloman, 2012, An Explosion of Fracking? One of the dirtiest
secrets of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement Trade

consultant at SC, http://www.sierraclub.org/trade/downloads/TPPFactsheet.pdf, KTG
Exporting natural gas is polluting at every stage of its life cycle. The
process begins with extracting the gas the vast majority of which will come from
fracking. An intrusive process, fracking involves pumping millions of gallons of
a mixture of water, sand, and chemicals underground to create
pressure which forces out natural gas.1 The fracking process can
spew large amounts of hazardous, smog-forming, and climate-
altering air pollutants into our air, and is also linked to serious threats to our water
supply. Fracking operations also disrupt forests, parks, and
communities across the country as they spread across the
landscape. But the environmental impacts associated with natural gas exports dont stop here. Once
the gas is extracted, it needs to travel from production sites to coastal
export terminals through hundreds of miles of pipelines. Whether
exporters are expanding old pipelines or building new ones, these major construction projects can cut

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across private property and public land, further fragmenting landscapes and increasing pollution. Then
there are the environmental impacts associated with the building of

the natural gas export terminals. New terminals will require the
dredging of sensitive estuaries to make room for massive LNG
tankers. E xpanding facilities and ship traffic will also take their toll on coastal communities and the
environment. Finally, while some tout natural gas as a clean, safe way to
provide energy, the fact is that the energy needed t o cool and
liquefy natural gas to be shipped overseas makes LNGs carbon
footprint just as dirty as coal by some estimates.2,3

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Ext: Pacific Biodiversity

Pacific is key to global bio-D.
UNESCAP, September 5 2000, Biodiversity Issues in the Pacific Islands
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific,
http://www.unescap.org/mced2000/pacific/background/biodiv.htm, KTG
The plants and animals that inhabit Pacific islands are often found
nowhere else on Earth. They are often adapted to specialized habitats, and limited to only a small part
of a few islands. These creatures are especially vulnerable to extinction
from habitat destruction (for example by fire or deforestation), competition from introduced organisms,
agricultural poisons, or harvesting. The isolated small islands of the Pacific have
fostered the evolution of myriad species of plants and animals found
nowhere else on Earth. These creatures can be adapted to
specialised micro-habitats, on only a limited portion of a few islands .
They are especially vulnerable to extinction from habitat destruction (for example by fire or deforestation), competition
from introduced organisms, agricultural poisons, or harvesting. New Caledonia, for example, has been isolated from other
Several plant
species, unique in the world, are limited to only a small area of one
mountain and are represented by only a few specimens. The rich and
diverse genetic heritage is of such scientific importance that Myers ,
1988, lists New Caledonia as one of the 10 hot spots in the world where the primary
lands for 80 million years. Seventy six percent of the flora and fauna evolved on the island.
forest is at once exceptional and endangered. New Caledonia has the most diverse bird life in the Southwest Pacific, with
68 species. Twenty-two species of birds (32%) and thirty sub-species, are found only in the Territory. The decline of the
biodiversity of the Pacific islands began with the arrival of the first humans. Archaeological investigations discovered an
even more phenomenal bird fauna existed in New Caledonia before the 18th Century, including a giant flightless bird, like
the famous (and also extinct) New Zealand Moa. The extinction of these birds coincides with the arrival of the Melanesians
about 900 years ago, and was likely caused by fire, slash and burn agriculture, and hunting. The arrival of European
settlers towards the end of the last Century greatly accelerated the loss of biodiversity. A combination of logging, mining
and natural drought conditions resulted in massive fires that destroyed a majority of the natural habitats on the southern
part of the island. This pattern was repeated throughout the Pacific. In the Marquesas, for example, the Polynesian
settlers exterminated eight of twenty sea birds, including shearwaters, petrels, and boobies. Fourteen of the 16 land birds,
primarily flightless rails, pigeons, doves, parrots and songbirds became extinct. On Easter Island, the early settlers
denuded the entire island of trees and exterminated 22 species of sea birds and all six species of land birds. The Maori
people arrived in New Zealand about 900 years ago and by the time the Europeans arrived in mass in the 1840s, most of
the countrys unique avifauna was extinct and nearly 30% of the native forests were cleared. The European invasion of
New Zealand resulted in the most extensive and complete biotransformation of any large island in the Pacific. This was a
deliberate effort of "Acclimatisation Committees" to make New Zealand more like "home" and included removal of all but
20% of the native forests, filling all but 10% of the wetlands, and importation of over 3198 species of plants and animals.
Australians were less successful than the New Zealanders in the biological transformation of their country, largely because
of the sheer size of the landmass and the unsuitability of many areas to British plants and animals. In turn, the Australian
Endemic
species can be lost in the space of a few months through the
destruction of critical habitat or through the introduction of
predator, insect pests and diseases. The loss of any habitat on a high
island is likely to mean the extinction of species of plants or animals.
and New Zealanders imported their favourite plants and animals into many Pacific island countries.

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A2: Climate Change N/UQs

Climate Change puts Pacific ecosystems at the brink
Hills et al. July 2011,Pacific Island Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Climate
Change Adaptation: Building on Natures Resilience Secretariat of the Pacific
Regional Environmental Programme; Hills, Ashley Brooks, James Atherton,
Nalini Rao, and Roger James are contributors and associates with SPREP and
Conservation International;
http://www.sprep.org/attachments/Publications/000931_PIBioEcoCCAdaptatio
n.pdf, KTG
Based on the available knowledge of climate change across the
Pacific Island region, impacts are likely to be severe and widespread.
Few ecosystems and human settlements could be said to be
completely buffered from predicted impacts. Many of the ecosystems identified as
most vulnerable to climate change are those that are already strongly linked with livelihoods and cultures,
and proximate to population centres (i.e. mangroves, sea grass beds, coral reefs, and coastal and
Significant changes to these ecosystems are

therefore highly visible to resource users and residents , and adverse
freshwater ecosystems).
climatic impacts would have almost immediate and tangible impacts on households and incomes. In
this regard, proactive responses to climate change to protect and restore

these ecosystem services are considered urgent, the ownership of the
challenges and solutions need to be local, and awareness of the issues is already
high in many cases. These three issues represent potential enabling factors for effective proactive
adaptation responses.

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2NC- PIC economies Impact

The 1NC Saiki evidence says TPP would create human and
ecological crises that would devastate the Pacific Island
Countries (PIC) economies and Asia.
Thats key to the global economy
Jean-Claude Trichet, February 25 2008, The growing importance of the
Asia-Pacific region European Central Bank, Trichet is Pres. Of the ECB,
http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2008/html/sp080225.en.html, KTG
II. The growing role of the Asia-Pacific region in the global economy
Let me therefore briefly elaborate on the first of these two aspects: the growing role of the Asia-Pacific
Consider
first demography. The Asia-Pacific region is home to about half of
the worlds population. China and India, with a combined population of 2.4 billion, are
evidently two population giants. But we all know very well that the region
includes other countries with large numbers of consumers and
investors, such as Indonesia (with a population of over 200 million) or the
Philippines and Vietnam, whose populations (around 90 million) are comparable to that of
Germany. The ASEAN countries as a whole represent more than 500
million inhabitants. The largest cities in the world can also be found
in the Asia-Pacific region. At present, nine of the twenty largest
metropolitan areas are located in this region. And some of these cities have
region in the global economy, which is evident in both demographic and economic terms.
grown considerably in size in recent years as a result of profound economic transformations and massive
The numbers are even more impressive in

economic terms. The Asia-Pacific region accounts for almost 37% of world
GDP at purchasing power parity. Moreover, it also comprises some of
the most dynamic economies in the world. The contribution to global growth of
migrations from rural areas.
emerging Asia alone, perhaps the most dynamic economic area of the world, reached around 40% last
year. Admittedly, the Asia-Pacific region as a whole remains diverse in terms of standards of living. Mature
economies, such as Australia or Japan, with GDP per capita of, respectively, USD 42,000 and USD 34,000 in
But what is striking is that the

vigour of growth in the last few years has helped to lift millions of
citizens in the regions emerging economies out of poverty . Take China, for
2007 at market rates, remain, of course, well ahead. [3]
instance, where people have reaped the benefits of their countrys rapid development through a doubling
of GDP per capita since the turn of the millennium, to about USD 2,400 in 2007. The remarkable pace of
The region, which has an

immense potential, is contributing to global prosperity . The euro area has
growth in the Asia-Pacific region is good news for all of us.
the potential to take advantage of the new opportunities that this rapid development creates. In 2006,
emerging Asia accounted for about 10% of euro area exports and 18% of its imports. It also accounted for
Importantly, the world
economy might be better able to rely on the dynamism of the AsiaPacific region should growth in other regions lose some momentum.
This is particularly important at the current juncture. However, it is equally
important not to forget one caveat. We are in a universe of interdependence. If
one economy slows down, it has an influence on all other economies .
about 6% of the euro areas stock of foreign direct investment.
Since we are all interdependent, the key question is how, and to what extent, a possible slowing down in
some mature economies might be partially offset by stronger growth in other regions, notably in emerging
Asia, also bearing in mind differences in cycles and drivers of growth.

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Economic decline increases the risk of warthere is

strong statistical support.


the likelihood
particularly for difficult [end page 213] to replace items such as energy resources,


& Hess, 2002. p. 89)
in
the likelihood of
terrorism
which has the


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more attention.
economic crises. As

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A2 North Korea War

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No War
No North Korea warUS power, South Korean stability,
and no initial strike.
Wesley Clark, CNN, April 8, 2013, An accident, then war with North
Korea? http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/05/opinion/clark-north-korea/?
hpt=po_c2, KTG
Again and again, North Korea has defied international accords, laws and
common sense, creating and exporting long-range missiles, building nuclear capabilities and engaging in
But there has been no war. We attribute

this to three factors. First, we believe the overwhelming power of the
United States guarantees that any North Korean attack would,
eventually, result in the utter destruction of the regime. Second, the
South Korean leadership has shown remarkable restraint in the face of
humiliating North Korean provocations. Third, the North Koreans may not have
ever intended to attack, though we have no way of knowing, or they understand that the
kidnappings, sabotage and cyberattack.
combined U.S.-South Korean forces would destroy North Korea should war begin.
No warall rhetoric and no action.

CBS, March 30 2013, "North Korea is not going to war," senior U.S. official
says http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57577117/north-korea-is-notgoing-to-war-senior-u.s-official-says/, KTG
A senior Obama administration official told CBS News Friday that North Korea's belligerent
words and war-like preparations are more bluff than bite. "North
Korea is in a mindset of war, but North Korea is not going to war,"
said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer insight into the latest
administration thinking on the volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula. The official said
North Korea is doing two things that signal it is not spoiling for war:
maintaining continuous and unfettered access to the Kaesong
Industrial Complex six miles north of the Demilitarized Zone and by
continuing to promote tourists visits to North Korea, even amid its
banging of war drums.
Turn- South Korea can deter American involvement spurs

prolif.
Doug Bandow, April 15 2013, Forget North Korea, Weak or Strong: South
Koreas Strength Is Why America Should Come Home Cato Institute, senior
fellow at the Cato Institute, specializing in foreign policy and civil liberties, JD
from Stanford, http://www.cato.org/blog/forget-north-korea-weak-or-strongsouth-koreas-strength-why-america-should-come-home, KTG
Joshua Keating over at Foreign Policy offered a thoughtful commentary on Rob Montzs North Korea
documentary, Juche Strong, after last Thursdays screening at Cato. Keating contended that the film,
which suggests that pervasive regime propaganda has created at least some degree of legitimacy in the
minds of many North Koreans, makes a case that the United States needs to maintain its current military
would be better for the Republic of Korea

and Japan if the North was made up of cowed and terrified people
who will abandon their leaders at the first signs of weakness, as
commitment to the region.
No doubt, it
Keating put it. But even popular determination and commitmentso far untested in an external crisisgo
only so far.
The question is not whether the so-called Democratic

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Peoples Republic of Korea is a threat, but 1) whether it is a threat

which cannot be contained by its neighbors and 2) is a sufficient
threat to America warranting U.S. led containment. The answers are
no. First, the DPRK has amassed a large army with lots of tanks, but training is limited and equipment is
antiquated. The Norths forces could devastate Seoul with artillery and missile strikes and a 4,000 tank
surge might reach the Souths capital, but North Korea would be unlikely to ultimately triumph. The latter
is weak in the air and with a decrepit economy can ill afford anything other than an unlikely blitzkrieg
victory. Nor could Pyongyang look to Russia or China for support: the Cold War truly is over. More
the ROK, which currently possesses around 40 times the

Norths GDP and twice the Norths population, could do much more
in its own defense. South Korea has created a competent, modern,
and sizeable military. Is it enough? Only Seoul can answer. If the South remains
vulnerable to a North Korean strike, it is only because the ROK
decided to emphasize economic development and rely on America .
That made sense during the early days of the Cold War, but no longer. There is no justification
for turning what should be a short-term American shield against
another round of Soviet- and Chinese-backed aggression into a longterm U.S. defense dole. It doesnt matter whether the North Koreans are Juche Strong or
Juche Harmless, as Keating put it. South Korea can defend itself. (Doing so would be
even easier if Seoul and Tokyo worked harder to overcome their historical animus. Alas, they feel
little pressure to do so as long as they both can rely on Washington
for protection.) Second, the DPRK poses no threat to America requiring
an ongoing military commitment. Even in 1950 the Pentagon did not believe the Korean
peninsula to be vital strategically, but the Cold War created a unique context for the conflict. Today a
second Korean War would only be a Korean War. Tragic, yes. Threat
to America, no. Pyongyang is an ongoing danger to its neighbors, not the United States. The
North matters to the United States primarily because Washington
remains entangled, with troops, bases, and defense commitments.
That is, North Korea threatens America because Washington chooses
to allow North Korea to threaten America. Of course, proliferation would remain a
concern even without a U.S. presence in Korea, but Americas garrison does nothing to
promote denuclearization. To the contrary, Washington is helpfully
providing tens of thousands of American nuclear hostages if the
DPRK creates an arsenal of deliverable nuclear warheads. It would
be far better for U.S. forces to be far away, out of range of whatever
weapons the North possesses. North Korea is only one side of the Northeast Asian
important,
balance. It doesnt much matter if Pyongyang is weak or strong so long as South Korea and Japan are
stronger.

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A2 Nuclear Tests Prove War

The nuclear tests prove weakness, not strength.
Bruce W. Bennett, February 15 2013, North Korea's Third Nuclear Test: A
Sign of Weakness, Not Strength Rand Corporation (Objective analysis of US
policy), Bennett as a Ph.D. in policy analysis at Pardee; BS in economics from
Cal. Institute of Tech., http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/02/north-koreas-thirdnuclear-test-a-sign-of-weakness.html, KTG
Key aspects of North Korea's third nuclear weapon test, carried out on Tuesday,
remain unknown. We do not know whether it was a test of a plutonium or highly enriched uranium weapon,
though many experts suspect the latter. We also do not know whether this weapon
was a primitive design or miniaturized to fit on a ballistic missile
(though North Korea has claimed the latter). Given the relative seismic readings, this test likely had about 2.5 times the
weapon yield of North Korea's second test, which according to Dr. Sieg Hecker of Stanford was in the range of 2 to 7
While small in nuclear weapon terms,

such a yield could still cause immense damage if detonated in a South Korean,
Japanese, or U.S. city, or even in a Chinese city. This is one of the reasons why the
regional countries have responded so strongly, and why a UN Security Council
kilotons, putting this test at about 5 to 18 kilotons.
Resolution against North Korea should be forthcoming. In addition, China had previously threatened to reduce its
So why did North Korea test a third

nuclear weapon? Many experts have pointed to North Korea's
desires to refine its nuclear weapons designs and make sure they work. But such desires are
assistance to North Korea if it did conduct a nuclear test.
primarily important if North Korea plans someday to actually employ its nuclear weapons. Otherwise, why pay the cost of
sanctions and lost Chinese aid? And why has China been so reluctant to pressure North Korea after its missile test in
The most obvious answer is that the North Korean

regime is weak, not strong: There must be more instability in North
Korea than experts are currently recognizing. The North Korean
leadership culture requires the appearance of empowerment, and what
besides missiles and nuclear weapons does the North Korean regime have that suggests they are empowered? Kim
Jong-Un reinforced this depiction by claiming that the December
satellite launch was the greatest achievement of his brief tenure.
Moreover, China likely worries that if it acts too strongly against North
Korea, it could cause the fragile regime to fail. If China does not reduce its aid to North
Korea, does that mean that China is really worried about North Korean instability? There are many areas
in which the North Korean regime is weak. Defectors have talked about the expectations
December and previously?
among North Koreans that Kim Jong-Un would introduce serious economic reforms to bring the country out of its economic
People
in North Korea still appear to be starving to death. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-Un has
failure, but reforms have not really happened. The food situation did not worsen in 2012, nor did it improve.
strengthened border security to prevent defections, seriously restricting an important escape valve. And he has carried
He has also
taken away many aspects of the military's power. These conditions
appear to be ripe for instability.
out aggressive purges throughout the North Korean leadership, especially among the military.

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Yes Miscalc/Accidental War

Miscalculation results in nuclear conflict and warcurrent
situation is different from the past.
Wesley Clark, CNN, April 8, 2013, An accident, then war with North
Korea? http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/05/opinion/clark-north-korea/?
hpt=po_c2, KTG
The U.S. and South Korean deterrent remains strong -- in both rhetoric
and deployable, effective military power. But what about miscalculation?
Life in North Korea Korea tensions ramp up Can China solve North Korea crisis? North Korea
might test missiles Yes, it is always possible that Kim may doubt that the United States would
act, despite all the evidence to the contrary. Or, perhaps he miscalculates how far he can
push the South Koreans. It is possible that a North provocation could be so extreme that the
South would be compelled by its own domestic politics to respond militarily -- say a tit-for-tat ship-sinking.
Or maybe such an incident occurs by accident, if overzealous commanders make

a wrong move. Opinion: Does North Korea think U.S. going soft? And then Kim, fearing that
his own associates would mistake forbearance for weakness, would
escalate in turn, thus initiating a cycle of intensifying moves that
could spread conflict and turn into a war that neither side could back
away from. The risk is higher now than before because Kim's
bellicose rhetoric may mask real weaknesses in his authority or in
his understanding. The rising rhetoric raises tensions (as it is probably
designed to do). These tensions increase the risks of fear or pride, which
could lead to an inadvertent incident. Should an incident occur, there will be pressure
on leaders of both sides to retaliate and even escalate hostility. The consequences of
conflict are higher than before, given the North's nuclear and missile
capabilities.

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A2 South China Sea Conflict

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1NC
No South China Sea war---China wants peace.
Carlyle A. Thayer, May 13 2013, Why China and the US wont go to war over the South China
Sea; MA in S.E. Asian Studies from Yale and a PhD in International Relations from the Australian National
University, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales;
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/05/13/why-china-and-the-us-wont-go-to-war-over-the-south-china-sea/,
KTG
the United States had

undertaken steps to strengthen its military posture by deploying
more nuclear attack submarines to the region and negotiating arrangements with Australia to rotate Marines through
Darwin. Since then, the United States has deployed Combat Littoral
Shpips to Singapore and is negotiating new arrangements for greater military access to the Philippines. But these
developments do not presage armed conflict between China and the
United States. The Peoples Liberation Army Navy has been
circumspect in its involvement in South China Sea territorial
disputes, and the United States has been careful to avoid being entrapped
by regional allies in their territorial disputes with China. Armed
conflict between China and the United States in the South China Sea appears unlikely.
Another, more probable, scenario is that both countries will find a modus
vivendi enabling them to collaborate to maintain security in the
South China Sea. The Obama administration has repeatedly emphasised that its policy of rebalancing to Asia is not directed at containing China.
Even before Washington announced its official policy of rebalancing its force posture to the Asia Pacific,
For example, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, Commander of the US Pacific Command, recently stated, there has also been criticism that the Rebalance is a strategy of
containment. This is not the case it is a strategy of collaboration and cooperation. However, a review of past USChina military-to-military interaction indicates that an
agreement to jointly manage security in the South China Sea is unlikely because of continuing strategic mistrust between the two countries. This is also because the
a third scenario is more likely than the previous two: that China
and the United States will maintain a relationship of cooperation and
friction. In this scenario, both countries work separately to secure their
interests through multilateral institutions such as the East Asia
Summit, the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus and the Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum. But they also continue to engage each other on
currents of regionalism are growing stronger. As such,
points of mutual interest. The Pentagon has consistently sought to keep channels of communication open with China through three established bilateral mechanisms:
Defense Consultative Talks, the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA), and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. On the one hand, these multilateral
mechanisms reveal very little about USChina military relations. Military-to-military contacts between the two countries have gone through repeated cycles of cooperation
and suspension, meaning that it has not been possible to isolate purely military-to-military contacts from their political and strategic settings. On the other hand, the
channels have accomplished the following: continuing exchange visits by high-level defence officials; regular Defense Consultation Talks; continuing working-level
discussions under the MMCA; agreement on the 7-point consensus; and no serious naval incidents since the 2009 USNS Impeccable affair. They have also helped to
ensure continuing exchange visits by senior military officers; the initiation of a Strategic Security Dialogue as part of the ministerial-level Strategic & Economic Dialogue
process; agreement to hold meetings between coast guards; and agreement on a new working group to draft principles to establish a framework for military-to-military
despite ongoing frictions in their relationship, the

United States and China will continue engaging with each other.
Both sides understand that military-to-military contacts are a critical
component of bilateral engagement. Without such interaction there is a risk that mistrust between the two militaries
cooperation. So the bottom line is that,
could spill over and have a major negative impact on bilateral relations in general. But strategic mistrust will probably persist in the absence of greater transparency in
Sino-American relations in the South China Sea are

more likely to be characterised by cooperation and friction than a modus vivendi of
collaboration or, a worst-case scenario, armed conflict.
military-to-military relations. In sum,
No South China Sea conflictChina embraces

multilateralism and war is remote due to economic and
political viability of the region.
Patrick M. Cronin, March 28 2013, Flashpoints: The Way Forward in the East and South China
Seas, Center for a New American Security, East and South China Seas Bulletin #12, Patrick M. Cronin is a
Senior Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American
Security (CNAS). Previously, he was the Director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at
National Defense University, professor at Georgetown Universitys Security Studies Program and JHUs
School of Advanced International Studies and University of Virginias Woodrow Wilson Department of

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Government; read IR at St. Antonys College (Univ. of Oxford), where he received his M.Phil. and D.Phil.
degrees; http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Bulletin_Cronin_TheWayForward.pdf
There is no single answer to the problems of the East and South China
Seas. Yet, there are reasons to be optimistic, especially because most
parties believe that war is remote and dispute management necessary.
Economically, the seas are at the crossroads of global commerce and
an increasingly vital source of both food and energy resources. Politically, cooperation in
these seas tests both the peace and prosperity of a rising Asia and
the Chinese narrative of its peaceful rise. Strategically, the East and South China
Seas are the place where Chinese military modernization is most likely to directly challenge Americas
long postwar dominance. In other words, the East and South China Seas are central to Asia-Pacific security.
all governments must place a

premium on avoiding war, managing disputes, slowly building
institutions and advancing joint cooperation. In the pursuit of peace, all nations
The stakes are high and increasing in these seas, and
not just the United States will need both wisdom and deft statecraft to manage these complicated and
Building new norms and effective institutions take

time. While Chinas future intentions cannot be known, Chinas embrace of
globalization has evolved over time. Today, for instance, it regularly
accepts third-party arbitration in World Trade Organization disputes,
and there is some hope that in the future it will do so when it comes
to maritime disputes as well. Intelligent, rules-based solutions can allow international fair
interwoven challenges.
play and give equal protection to the weak and strong alike.

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2NC
Extend Thayer 13conflict in the SCS wont happen. The
US has already taken containment steps and the PLA and
China arent willing to start conflict. China wants to
cooperate and will with international organizations and
the US. China-US relations check conflict.
Extend Cronon 13China embraces multilateralism and
the region is too important. China recognizes the
importance of SCS to commerce and the political
importance of hegemonic international relations. They
wouldnt start a war.
Both of these cards are from less than 3 months ago
prefer recency here when talking about a potential war in
a situation, which is changing daily.
ASEAN diplomacy checks conflicttheyre creating a Code
of Conduct.
Sanchita Basu Das, May 13 2012, ASEAN: A United Front to Tackle the South China Sea Issue,
Sanchita Basu Das is an ISEAS Fellow and Lead Researcher for Economic Affairs in the ASEAN Studies
Centre at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), Singapore. She is also the coordinator of the
Singapore APEC Study Centre at ISEAS, lead researcher for economic affairs at ASEAN Studies Centre and
ISEAS, has an MBA from National University of Singapore and MA from the Delhi School of Economics,
Institute of South-East Asian Studies, http://www.iseas.edu.sg/documents/publication/sbd13may12.pdf,
KTG
During the 2010 ASEAN Regional Forum in Hanoi, the dispute

between China and ASEAN came out into the open. US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton stated that the US is in favour of a collaborative diplomatic process
by all claimants for resolving the various territorial disputes without
coercion, which ASEAN welcomed. Other non-claimant countries, including Indonesia,
Australia and Japan also got involved, weakening Beijings claim that the
dispute is only between China and a few ASEAN members. Realising
this, ASEAN under Indonesias chairmanship in 2011 reached a consensus with China
to discuss the joint development of undersea resources. ASEAN and
China agreed to adopt a set of guidelines to implement the
declaration of conduct, and pledged to exercise restraint. Building on this
progress, ASEAN senior officials have met several times since late 2011 to discuss
possible elements of a code of conduct. In dealing with the South China Sea issue, one
should keep in mind that over one-third of the worlds seaborne trade passes through this conduit, and half of this traffic is
oil and gas. Solving the dispute has important implications for the free passage of shipping and the eventual development
Beijing has signaled its strong

interest in joining the deliberation process that will issue the code of
conduct. At the recent ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, the Philippines and Vietnam strongly objected to China taking
of oil and natural gas investments in the area. But in recent months,
part in the discussion at this juncture. Some member-states argue that ASEAN must reach an internal consensus before
ASEANs main objective in developing a set of

guidelines is to encourage China to agree to resolve the dispute
peacefully and ease tensions in the South China Sea. ASEAN must manage
involving China in the drafting process.
its inherent differences quietly and develop the code of conduct to correspond with international legal norms, such as the

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1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Though the dispute may not be resolved completely in the short term,
such an approach will ease tensions with the international

community, which relies on South China Sea trade routes . This way, ASEAN
will not only play an important role in regional diplomacy it will also help manage the economic interests of noncontending countries.
Thats key to deter SCS conflict.

Carlyle A. Thayer, August 20, 2012, ASEANS Code of Conduct in the South China Sea: A Litmus
Test for Community-Building?; MA in S.E. Asian Studies from Yale and a PhD in International Relations from
the Australian National University, Emeritus Professor at the University of New South Wales; The AsiaPacific Journal, Vol 10, Issue 32, No. 4, KTG
ASEANs Code of Conduct

The genesis of ASEANs 2012 draft COC may be traced back to 1995 when China occupied Mischief Reef, a maritime feature claimed by the Philippines. The Mischief Reef
ASEAN foreign ministers issued a statement expressing

their serious concern and urged the concerned parties to refrain
from taking actions that de-stabilize the situation .3 The Philippines, as the aggrieved party,
sought the backing from its fellow ASEAN members for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea that
would constrain China from further encroachments on Philipines
sovereignty. In late 1999 ASEAN members finally reached agreement on a COC.4 In March 2000, ASEAN and China exchanged their respective drafts
incident marked a turning point.
and agreed to consolidate them into one document.5 Four major areas of disagreement were identified: the geographic scope, restrictions on construction on occupied and
unoccupied features, military activities in waters adjacent to the Spratly islands, and whether or not fishermen found in disputed waters could be detained and arrested. A
formal ASEAN-China COC proved a bridge too far. In November 2002, ASEAN member states and China signed a non-binding political statement known as the Declaration
The
parties to the DOC reaffirmed that the adoption of a code of
conduct in the South China Sea would further promote peace and
stability in the region and agree to work, on the basis of consensus,
towards the eventual attainment of this objective.6 The DOC was stillborn. It took a further
on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). This document set out four trust and confidence building measures and five voluntary cooperative activities.
twenty-five months before senior officials reached agreement on the terms of reference for the ASEAN-China Joint Working Group (JWC) to implement the DOC.7 In August
2005, ASEAN tabled draft Guidelines to Implement the DOC at the first meeting of the JWC. Point two called for ASEAN consultations prior to meeting with China.8
China objected and repeated its long-held position that the relevant
parties should resolve sovereignty and jurisdictional disputes
bilaterally. This proved such a sticking point that another six years of intermittent discussions and twenty-one successive drafts were exchanged before final
agreement was reached. In July 2011, the Guidelines to Implement the DOC were adopted after ASEAN dropped its insistence on prior consultation and agreed instead to
promote dialogue and consultation among the parties. A new point was added to the Guidelines specifying that activities and projects carried out under the DOC should be
reported to the ASEAN-China Ministerial Meeting.9 All the other points in the 2011 Guidelines remained unchanged from the original ASEAN draft tabled in 2005. ASEAN
and Chinese senior officials commenced discussions on the implementation of the Guidelines. At a meeting held in Beijing from January 13-15, 2012, agreement was
reached to set up four expert committees on maritime scientific research, environmental protection, search and rescue, and transnational crime. These committees were
derived from the five cooperative activities mentioned in the 2002 DOC. Significantly no expert committee on safety of navigation and communication at sea was
established due to its contentious nature. The agreement on DOC Guidelines led to the revival of the long-standing proposal by the Philippines for a COC that was
ASEAN senior officials began drafting the COC with the

intention of reaching a common ASEAN position before presenting it
to China for discussion. China initially took the position that the implementation of the DOC Guidelines should be given priority
over the COC. China stated it would discuss the COC with ASEAN at an
appropriate timing or when appropriate conditions were met. 10 In
included in the 2002 DOC.
January 2012, the Philippines circulated an informal working draft simply titled, Philippines Draft Code of Conduct. The document was eight pages in length and comprised
ten articles. In line with official Philippine foreign policy promoting the South China Sea as a Zone of Peace, Freedom, Friendship and Cooperation (ZOPFF/C), the draft COC
proposed a Joint Cooperation Area in the South China Sea (Article III), a Joint Permanent Working Committee to implement the ZOPFF/C (Article IV), the Application of Part
IX of the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea in the South China Sea (Article V),11 and Dispute Settlement Mechanisms (Article VI). The remaining articles
contained standard provisions such as principles (Article I), objectives (Article II), reservations (Article VII), signature and ratification (Article VIII), entry into force (Article IX)
and review and amendments to the code (Article X). In discussions held by ASEAN senior officials during the first quarter of 2012 it became apparent that ASEAN members
were divided on Articles III-VI in the Philippines draft. Some ASEAN members also shared reservations about being too prescriptive concerning dispute settlement
mechanisms.12 It was at this point that China changed tack and sought a seat at the ASEAN discussions. The timing of Chinas involvement with ASEAN in drafting a COC
quickly became a contentious issue within ASEAN. These tensions surfaced at the 20th ASEAN Summit held in Phnom Penh from April 3-4. Cambodia, the ASEAN Chair,
pushed for Chinas inclusion in ASEAN discussions. The Philippines and Vietnam objected strongly and a compromise was reached. ASEAN would proceed on its own to draft
a COC, while communication with China would take place through the ASEAN Chair at the same time.13 The ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting (SOM) Working Group on the
COC concluded its discussions on June 13, 2012 at its seventh meeting. According to an official statement, The meeting agreed to submit the draft ASEAN proposed key
elements of the regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea to the ASEAN SOM for consideration.14 The ASEAN SOM met in Phnom Penh from July 6-7 and forwarded
the agreed draft to the ASEAN foreign ministers for deliberation at their 45th AMM on July 9. At the end of the AMM formal discussions Kao Kim Hourn, Secretary of State in
the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters that the ASEAN foreign ministers had adopted the key elements of the COC and agreed to have the ASEAN
senior officials meet with the senior official from China to discuss the (code of conduct) from now on.15 According to the document ASEANs Proposed Elements of a
Regional Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, the original Philippine Working Draft was heavily pruned. Articles III-VI were dropped entirely. The ASEAN key elements
were reduced to a preamble and two articles. A comparison of the Philippine draft preamble with the agreed ASEAN preamble reveals that two items contained in the
former were dropped. The first was a reference to the principles and norms of international law applicable to maritime space, in particular the principles on the peaceful
uses and cooperative management of the oceans. The second and more sensitive reference that was deleted referred to the need to preserve the region from any form
of increased militarization and intimidation. Both preambles began by referencing the 1997 Joint Statement of the meeting of heads of government/state of ASEAN
members and China. Next, the Philippines inclusion of the 2003 declaration of the ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity was replaced with a
reference to the more recent 2006 Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership for Peace and Towards an Enhanced ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership. Both preambles
included a reference to the 2002 DOC and its commitment to develop a COC. Both preambles also referred to protection of the environment and biodiversity. The ASEAN
draft altered the formulation in the Philippine draft from advance a lasting and durable solution of disputes to read comprehensive and durable solution of disputes.16
a zone of peace, freedom, friendship and

cooperation was modified to read an area of peace, stability,
friendship and cooperation. Article I of the ASEAN draft COC contained its operative provisions and called on the parties to
The Philippines original proposal for

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respect and adhere to the United Nations Charter, 1982 UNCLOS, Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, DOC and the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence.
However, five of the principles contained in the Philippine draft were deleted in their entirety: respect for freedom of navigation and over flight; the need to define, clarify
and segregate disputed areas from the non-disputed areas; full resolution of the territorial and jurisdictional disputes; refrain from undertaking activities that may disrupt
The ASEAN draft

contained four principles: (1) to develop modalities and arrangements
for the promotion of settlement by peaceful means of disputes and prevent
their escalation; (2) to respect the provisions of and take actions consistent
with the COC; (3) to encourage other countries to respect the purposes
and principles contained in the COC; and (4) to establish an effective mechanism to monitor the
the peace and endanger the environment; and build trust and confidence on the basis of equality and mutual respect.
implementation of the COC.

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Ratifying LOST solves

Ratifying UNCLOS solves!
Bonnie S. Glaser, April 2012, Armed Clash in the South China Sea,
Bonnie S. Glaser is a senior fellow with the Freeman Chair in China Studies
and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum, Center for Strategic and
International Studies; http://www.cfr.org/east-asia/armed-clash-south-chinasea/p27883, KTG
First, the United States should ratify UNCLOS; though it voluntarily
adheres to its principles and the Obama administration has made a
commitment to ratify the convention, the fact that the United States
has not yet ratified the treaty lends credence to the perception that
it only abides by international conventions when doing so aligns
with its national interests. Ratifying UNCLOS would put this
speculation to rest. It would also bolster the U.S. position in favor of
rules-based behavior, give the United States a seat at the table
when UNCLOS signatories discuss such issues as EEZ rights, and
generally advance U.S. economic and strategic interests.

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A2 Senkaku Conflict

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1NC
Senkaku island disputes wont erupt into war---political
instability, China wont risk US involvement, and the
resources arent strong enough.
David A. Beitelman, September 2012, Senkaku Islands Dispute: Do Not Believe the Hype,
China and Japan Are Not About to Go to War Policy Mic; PhD student in Political Science at Dalhousie
University and a Doctoral Fellow at the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
He holds Masters degrees in American Studies and Political Science, and a BA (Hons) Specialization in
Political Science with a Major in American Studies, from the University of Western Ontario;
http://www.policymic.com/articles/14910/senkaku-islands-dispute-do-not-believe-the-hype-china-andjapan-are-not-about-to-go-to-war, KTG
The world is abuzz with the rising tensions between China and Japan
in the East China Sea, where the two are quarreling over the energyrich Senkaku Island chain (known as the Diaoyu Islands in China ).
Complicating the issue is a similar dispute between South Korea and Japan over another energy rich island chain in the
East Sea/Sea of Japan, known as Takeshima in Japan and Dokdo in South Korea. Add this to the already tense territorial
relationship between various states in the Asia-Pacific region which include the Philippines, Thailand, India, and Vietnam,
and it is no wonder many are discussing the prospects of outright

military conflict erupting in the region. But despite the rhetoric and saber rattling, the
prospects for conflict are less than those who sell the news would
have you believe. Most troubling to observers are the anti-Japanese demonstrations that have been flaring
up across China and a naval "show of force" by the Chinese navy into Japanese controlled waters. But it is important to
Chinas economy is slowing and the ruling Chinese Communist Party

(CCP) is preparing for a change in leadership. Whats more, the CCP has been at the receiving
end of a lot of criticism in the wake of the Gu Kailai murder trial and its revelation of wide-spread
keep this all in perspective.
corruption by her husband, Bo Xilai, a high-ranking CCP official. There is also the bizarre case of the son of another highranking CCP official, Ling Jihua, who died after he crashed his Ferrari while naked and in the company of two women.
The CCP derives a great deal of its legitimacy from the countrys
impressive economic performance over the past 30 or so years. With the economy slowing and
the perception that the ruling party is corrupt, out of touch, and incompetent, while in the midst of a power transition, it
becomes easy to see why the CCP may benefit from ratcheting up nationalist sentiment, particularly against its long-time
It is unlikely the Chinese government would allow the

situation to escalate to a point of actual conflict. Not only does China
have important economic relations with its neighbors, including
Japan, it knows it is a conflict it cannot win. The rise in tensions in
the South China Sea come in midst of Americas "Pacific pivot" a large
rival Japan.
scale multi-dimensional strategic realignment of military, economic, and political resources to the Asia-Pacific region that
The United States is looking to build an

institutional framework in the region similar to the one it created in
Europe after World War II. At the center of this framework is, arguably, a need to "contain" China, or at
began in earnest in November 2011.
least strongly influence its strategic calculus as it modernizes its military and becomes a more assertive regional and
China is well aware that those it

would be fighting have military alliances and agreements with the
United States. Fighting Japan or South Korea is one thing. Fighting
the United States is another. Fighting any combination of the U.S.
and another regional power particularly Japan is simply unwinnable. More important when considering the prospects for
conflict in the region is the simple financial calculus: states go to
war when the cost of doing so is less than the perceived rewards. While
these islands may be rich in energy resources, it is unlikely that they exceed the
economic and political costs of a war between any of these
countries. A war between Japan and China would be a crippling blow
to an already fragile global economy, particularly to the economies
global power. Should the situation in the region come to blows,

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of those states involved. NATO taking out Libya could be done on the cheap; war between China and
Japan cannot. It is not for nothing that China has already stated it would not use force to resolve territorial issues in the
China and Japan may be flexing their muscles a bit, but both
know it is in their best interests to resolve differences through
negotiation, not war.
region.
No Japan-China wartoo costly, politics, territorial lines,

no miscalculation, tension reduction, and UN diplomatic
intervention.
Daryl Morini, February 23 2013, 6 Ways to Prevent a Conflict Between Tokyo and Beijing the
Diplomat; Daryl Morini is a Pacific Forum CSIS WSD-Handa Non-Resident Fellow. He is a PhD researcher on
preventive diplomacy, Deputy Editor of e-IR, and has work experience in international institutions,
including the UN; http://thediplomat.com/2013/02/23/6-ways-to-prevent-a-conflict-between-tokyo-andbeijing/6/, KTG
The ongoing crisis over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands may be bringing Asia
to the cusp of war. Trefor Moss recently wrote that a Japan-China war over these disputed islands is very unlikely. That
could be right. Or it could be wrong. But even a very small chance of a Sino-Japanese war breaking out in 2013 is enough reason to work to try
to prevent it. What follows is a six-point plan to seek to deescalate the dispute in the short term. It is no doubt flawed and incomplete, but
international diplomacy is never perfect, nor does it have to be.

However imperfect a resolution to this dispute may be, it is almost
certainly preferable to war for all parties involved. 1. Remember the
price of war. Looking at a two-dimensional military map, drawing arrows and moving colored chips across it is the highest
possible abstraction of war. The strategists viewpoint reduces lives to tokens,
dehumanizes war, and gives the mistaken illusion that killing and
dying is as simple as a game of chess. Always remember the costs of war when making decisions of
such gravity. Transport your mind into that of the soldiers and sailors you are sending to their graves. Ask yourself, as the philosopher does,
what becomes of your humanity while half a pound of lead, sent from the distance of a hundred steps, pierces my body, and I die at twenty
years of age, in inexpressible torments, in the midst of five or six thousand dying men As an unnamed source put it, theres some 24-yearold kid in the Japanese Coast Guard who has a family and friends. At some point hes going to take a .50 caliber round over this. Always bear
2. Help your opponent save

face. In a cycle of escalating conflict, each side is tempted to force
the other side to lose face, humiliate them in front of domestic and
international audiences and, eventually, back down. The thing is it
hardly ever works out like that in practice. Both sides in a conflict
still have politics, and intransigency or provocation (real or perceived) by an
adversary usually only emboldens the hawks and their zero-sum
mindset in any country. Thomas Schelling made the essential point that it may often benefit conflicting parties who
these images in your mind before you commit lives to the horrible business of war.
are attempting to compel changes in each others behavior through military pressure to only vaguely communicate their demands in public.
By shrouding their key demands in ambiguity, and communicating them privately (or even tacitly), leaders are better able to comply with
demands without losing face in public. An excellent example is the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis,when a (then-secret) U.S.-Soviet
In Asia, where
the concept of face is particularly important, it is doubly important
that Chinese and Japanese leaders not back each other into a corner
by threatening one anothers political survival. 3. Respect red lines.
That means, above all, not firing the first shot. There are some fairly clear red lines : i.e.Chinese
missile swap deal had the U.S. pull missiles out of Turkey to allow the Soviets to withdraw gracefully from Cuba.
paramilitary or military forces landing on the disputed islands; Japanese planes shooting tracer bullets at their opponents; either side
All of these thresholds, once crossed, invite

further destabilizing escalation. It is difficult to conceive of the two
sides escalating into a major conflict without an initial provocation like
wounding or killing anothers serviceperson etc.
this. Unless the aim of Japan or China is to launch a regional war, which is highly unlikely, then each party should be sensitive to the basic red
lines of the other. Since this dangerous cat-and-mouse game is being played in the waters and airspace around and over these disputed
isolated islets, it is crucial that civilian crisis managers on each side assert uncontested authority over their military subordinates moves.
a projectile that kills accidentally does not look like an

accident on the receiving end. 4. Do not miscalculate your (or their)
military capabilities and fighting resolve. Some leading research on the psychological process involved in crossing the
Rubicon of war suggests that belligerents tend to be buoyed by overconfidence as
war looms closer. Leaders tend to over estimate their own
Remember that

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capabilities, and underestimate their enemys capabilities and

resolve during dangerous crises. This is relevant to both parties in the Senkaku/Diaoyu standoff. In this
context, one should be concerned about reports that "In the event of war with China over the disputed Diaoyutai (Diaoyu or Senkaku) islands
pan's defense ministry would attempt a coordinated

attack with the U.S. to sink China's first and only aircraft carrier in
service" Similarly, the Chinese Peoples Dailys dismissal of the seriousness of Japans capabilities and intent to fight to defend the
in the East China Sea, Ja
Senkakus based on faith in the coercive power of Chinese missiles is also dangerously simplistic. Neither party can predict the outcome of
5. Begin a strategy
of graduated reciprocity in tension reduction. At the height of the Cold War, psychologist
such a war. Any comments to the contrary are propaganda at best, delusional optimism at worst.
Charles E. Osgood proposed a strategy of graduated reciprocity in tensions reduction, or GRIT. As Walter Clemens puts it, the initiator begins
We are embarking on a strategy to

reduce tensions. We will make several unilateral initiatives to
demonstrate our goodwill. We will give you time to respond in a
positive way. If you reciprocate, we will proceed to larger
concessions and compromise accords. But unless tension-reducing
moves become reciprocal, we will revert to hardline [tit-for-tat].
by communicating the following intention to the other side:
Interestingly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may have already sent such a first signal in a letter to Chinese authorities, hand-delivered by Japanese
envoy and coalition partner, Natsuo Yamaguchi. This was a risky move for Tokyo to make, since it may come under fire domestically as folding
early, but it was a demonstration of clear political courage to get out of a downward spiral of conflict. Tokyo, and the world, should now watch
for China to reciprocate this goodwill gesture with a concession of its own. In all likelihood, Chinese leaders will be constrained in their ability
to further escalate tensions on the heels of such a Japanese good faith outreach effort, since the image of China as a bullying aggressor would
6. Ring Ban Ki-moon. UN Secretary-General Ban

Ki-moon has not been as publicly vocal on the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute as he has
been on other issues like Syria, for example. Both China and Japan would stand to gain by
inviting Ban Ki-moons assistance to resolve the dispute or at the
very least prevent war. They need not accept his recommendations, or even publicly acknowledge his mediation
quickly reverberate across all of Asia.
efforts. But the mere presence of a third-party genuinely interested in the prevention of war as an end in itself can be immensely beneficial by
creating options which the disputants may not have heretofore considered possible. This final proposal should not be mistaken for starryeyed idealism in the capabilities of the world body. The UN has many flaws. But its primary purpose, and its most enduringly relevant one, as
Dag Hammarskjld made clear, was to prevent small disputes from engulfing the great powers in world war.

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2NC
Extend Beitelman 12he talks about reasons why
Senkaku conflict is insanely impossible. Political
instability and corruption within the CCP and Bo Xilai
prevents the military from taking credible action. The
economies are too tied to risk a war, and China wouldnt
risk US involvement because it would be devastating.
Finally, the Senkakus dont have enough resources to
start a conflict.
No Senkaku nuclear war
a) Too much economic interdependenceTHIS IS ONLY
TRUE OF THIS CERTAIN DISPUTE NOT EVIDENCE THAT
ECONOMIC GROWTH SOLVES WAR!
Sungtaue Park, 10/25/2012, Limits of the China-Japan Tension over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
International Affairs Review at GWU; Sungtae Park is a M.A. Security Policy Studies student at the George
Washington Universitys Elliott School of International Affairs. He has also written articles for CSIS (Center
for Strategic and International Studies) and Brandeis International Journal; http://www.iargwu.org/node/434, KTG
There is a growing fear among many Asia observers and pundits that
the on-going territorial dispute could become a spark for a
destructive, general war in Asia. The reality, however, is that there are several economic,
political, as well as logistical (in military terms) constraints that make a war highly unlikely. In
economic terms, trade between the two countries is at historic high

levels. A war would have devastating human as well as material
costs. While economic interests and interdependence do not
necessarily lead to peace, as history has proven with World War I,
the current situation is different. Both political and military leaders before World War I
believed that a war would be quick with small costs. Each side also believed that it would win. Leaders
of both China and Japan today understand that the costs of a war
would be astronomical and understand that victory is no certainty .
The CCP (the Chinese Communist Party) has a strong interest in making sure
that the conflict does not turn into a war. One of the key pillars of the CCPs
legitimacy is economic growth. The Chinese economy is already slowing. A war would certainly put a halt
to the so-called Chinese miracle. In the beginning of the dispute this year, Beijing actually discreetly
encouraged protests in hope that they would divert the Chinese peoples attention away from Chinas
slowing economic growth and deteriorating socioeconomic conditions. As of now, however, Beijing is
attempting to restrain the protests, fearing that they could pressure the government into an actual war.
b) Japan and China dont have strong enough military and

naval forces.
Sungtaue Park, 10/25/2012, Limits of the China-Japan Tension over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
International Affairs Review at GWU; Sungtae Park is a M.A. Security Policy Studies student at the George
Washington Universitys Elliott School of International Affairs. He has also written articles for CSIS (Center
for Strategic and International Studies) and Brandeis International Journal; http://www.iargwu.org/node/434, KTG
There
are also logistical reasons why a war over the Senkaku /Diaoyu
is unlikely. It is generally believed that neither China nor Japan at the
moment has the military capability to wage a full-scale conventional
Islands

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war against the other. If China and Japan were to fight a war, the
initial fighting would take place on water. The Chinese navy is mainly
oriented towards coastal defense and does not have effective naval
capabilities to project its power beyond the so-called first island
chain. The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands are part of the first island chain, but the Chinese military would
have to stretch its naval capability to the limit in order to fight a war at that point. Even Chinas
on-going naval modernization is primarily for defensive purposes.
The Japanese navy, on the other hand, does have some capability to project its power, but it is
very limited. The Japanese military also does not have adequate ground forces to conduct fighting
on the Chinese mainland. Even if violence breaks out, such a conflict would be very
limited in scope and is highly unlikely that it would turn into a
general war or escalate to a nuclear conflict.

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1NC--Hegemony Turn
Senkaku conflict would end US hegemony and the asia
pivotexposes Americas weakest links.
Wendell Minnick, April 16 2013, Senkakus Could Be Undoing of Asia Pivot: Would U.S., Japan Go
To War With China Over Islands? Defense News,
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130416/DEFREG03/304160012/Senkakus-Could-Undoing-Asia-Pivot,
KTG
Americas strategic rebalancing toward the Pacific known as

the Asia pivot could meet its first unwanted test over the Japanesecontrolled Senkaku Islands, now being challenged for control by China. Could the Asia
pivots true fulcrum be located on these desolate, rocky outcrops in
TAIPEI
the East China Sea? China, which calls them the Diaoyu Islands, claims they were stolen from it after World
War II. Over the past two years, Beijing has taken aggressive actions to intimidate Japanese Coast Guard
There are concerns an

accidental war could be triggered by miscalculation or by China, in
the spirit of nationalism, taking a calculated risk by invading the
islands. The question many are asking is: Would Washington fulfill its defense
treaty obligations with Japan by taking an active military role to
remove Chinese forces from the islands? Or would the U.S. hesitate
for political and economic reasons to placate China? If so, what would this
mean for regional confidence in Americas commitments to peace and stability? This could be
Americas Suez moment, said Paul Giarra, who heads Global Strategies & Transformation,
a national defense and strategic planning consulting firm in Washington . It could be the
moment when America, hobbled by massive debt, domestic political
spasms and the lingering wounds of two exhaustive wars, finally
realizes, as did Great Britain during the Suez crisis of 1956, that its ability to fulfill its
international strategic commitment in a complex, multipolar world
ends. And if the U.S. fails to uphold its treaty obligations to Japan in
such a scenario, could this force Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the
Philippines to question whether it is in their best interests to cater
to a declining superpower that is no longer able to meet the
minimum requirements of its pledges during a crisis? Or will the U.S., guided
vessels in charge of safeguarding the islands territorial boundaries.
by the lights of a bygone era of being the unilateral superhero, dive into a war with an economic
superpower that does not share Americas cost-benefit morality or its reciprocal military restraint?
Unipolarity makes war four times more likely- statistical

analyses proves
Monteiro, 11 (Nuno P Monteiro is a professor of political science at Yale
University and received his PhD in political science from the University of
Chicago, "Unrest Assured: Why Unipolarity Is Not Peaceful" in January 2011,
International Security, Vol. 36, No. 3 (Winter 2011/12), pp. 940 from
www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/ISEC_a_00064/ak)
How well, then, does the argument that unipolar systems are peaceful account for the first two decades of
unipolarity since the end of the Cold War? Table 1 presents a list of great powers divided into three
periods: 1816 to 1945, multipolarity; 1946 to 1989, bipolarity; and since 1990, unipolarity. Table 2
Unipolarity is
the most conflict prone of all the systems, according to at least two
important criteria: the percentage of years that great powers spend
at war and the incidence of war involving great powers . In multipolarity, 18
percent of great power years were spent at war. In bipolarity, the ratio is 16 percent. In unipolarity,
presents summary data about the incidence of war during each of these periods.

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59 percent of great power years until now were spent at

war. This is by far the highest percentage in all three systems .
Furthermore, during periods of multipolarity and bipolarity, the
probability that war involving a great power would break out in any
given year was, respectively, 4.2 percent and 3.4 percent. Under unipolarity, it
is 18.2 percentor more than four times higher. 47 These figures provide no
evidence that unipolarity is peaceful. In sum, the argument that
unipolarity makes for peace is heavily weighted toward interactions
among the most powerful states in the system. This should come as no surprise
however, a remarkable
given that Wohlforth makes a structural argument: peace flows from the unipolar structure of international
analyses of the
international system are usually centered on interactions between
great powers. 50 As Waltz writes, The theory, like the story, of international politics is written in
terms of the great powers of an era. 51 In the sections that follow, however, I show that i n the case
of unipolarity, an investigation of its peacefulness must consider
potential causes of conflict beyond interactions between the most
important states in the system.
politics, not from any particular characteristic of the unipole. 49 Structural

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A2 Takeshima Conflict
FYI: Dodko/Takeshima islands are between Korea and Japan. South Korea calls
it Dodko. Japan calls it Takeshima. Since the Asia-Pacific war, theyve both
wanted it, so they dispute over it. The US is torn because both SK and Japan
are its allies. Bam. Fml, why do East Asian countries go ape-shit over these
small islands like seriously get a life
Theres not a lot of literature on this. I just made it under the slight possibility
you might hit something about it.

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1NC
History and politics makes tensions inevitable over
Takeshima
Terence Roehrig, December 2012, The United States and the Dokdo/Takeshima Dispute:
Caught between two allies Fellow at the International Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science
and International Affairs, professor at the US Naval War College in National Security Affairs and Director of
the Asia-Pacific Studies Group at the U.S. Naval War College, KTG
Finally, the United States can encourage both sides to not let this issue be linked to the overall health of
The Dokdo/Takeshima dispute will likely last for a

long time and it is difficult to see a solution forthcoming anytime
soon. Yet all of the common interests and cooperation that have
developed to this point between these three allies cannot be held
hostage to continued disagreement over Liancourt Rocks. Conclusion
The dispute over a small cluster of islands the United States calls Liancourt Rocks
is likely to remain unresolved for some time. As in the past, this
issue, along with others tied to history that remain between Japan
and South Korea will cause periodic spikes in tension between these
two U.S. allies. Yet, the two countries and the United States have
many common political, economic, and security interests that are
hurt by these interludes of difficult relations between Tokyo and
Seoul. Washington can do little to prod its two allies into a final solution; the domestic
politics in Japan and South Korea are too thorny and the risks too
great for the alliances. But the United States can play a role to encourage both sides to
manage this dispute in a careful and rational manner. Indeed, Washington already does a
great deal to promote cooperation between these two U.S. allies.
ROK-Japanese relations.
These are important efforts and it is crucial that the United States seek additional ways to calm these
waters in Asia.
US attempts to deter Takeshima disputes are bad

a) Costs for both alliances with Japan and SoKo
If the United States applies pressure for a settlement, the situation

will become one of compellence Washington will threaten to
impose costs on its two allies to outweigh the benefits of South
Korea and Japan holding their ground. Given the domestic political
costs at stake for both allies, costs that are likely to increase
dramatically if word gets out of U.S. pressure, which surely it will, it is likely that
there are few costs Washington could threaten to impose that would be greater than these domestic
If the United States then implemented its threats, the

damage to one or both alliances would be severe.
political costs.
b) Would somehow be perceived as leaning towards one

side or the other.

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Another possibility would be for Washington to act in some

capacity to adjudicate the dispute. As the common denominator for these bilateral
alliances, the United States might be trusted to reach an amicable decision. Yet, this option is
equally dangerous. First, reaching a decision that would not be
perceived by one side or the other as being prejudicial is highly
unlikely. Given the positions held by South Korea and Japan, it is very difficult to
conceive of a solution that would sufficiently split the differences in
a way that makes both sides happy. For example, Kim Tae-woo, the current President
Adjudication?
of the Korean Institute for National Unification (KINU) and a scholar whose conservative credentials are
impeccable suggested that perhaps Seoul could offer to reach an agreement to share the resources
surrounding Dokdo in return for Japan acknowledging ROK sovereignty over the islands and apologizing for
The outcry in South Korea against his proposal was immediate

and loud. He offered to resign his position as President of KINU in response but so far has remained in
his post. Any decision that did not appear to support the position of
either ally would likely generate a similar response but this time
directed at Washington.
the past.
c) It wouldnt result in a final settlement

The U.S. position in the dispute has been clear

and consistent for decades it does not take a position on
sovereignty concerning Liancourt Rocks and will support any final decision that is reached by both
Assist in Managing the Dispute.
parties through negotiation. During a visit to Japan in October 2012, Deputy Secretary of State William
Burns elaborated stating: our position is not neutral with regard to the focus on dialogue and finding
diplomatic means to address these issues.
What the U.S. government supports is

an approach that is focused on dialogue. I think South Korea and Japan, for many
years, have demonstrated an ability to manage this responsibly. And our hope and expectation is, theyll
continue to do that. The precise choice of which of those kinds of means is, obviously, up to the parties
Key to Secretary Burns comments is manage. The United States should
encourage both sides to reach a solution, but a final settlement of
the dispute is unlikely anytime soon. U.S. involvement to push a
solution carries significant risk for alliance relations. As a result, the
best and most productive efforts that the United States can take is
to help both sides manage this issue so that hostility does not
increase further and efforts to have greater trilateral cooperation
can continue.
themselves.

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2NC
Alt Causeresolve requires diplomacy
there are a number of diplomatic measures the United States can

take to help both sides manage this dispute. Washington should
undertake a quiet, diplomatic effort to remind both sides as often
and as forcefully as it possibly can of the common interests shared
by Japan, South Korea, and the United States. These interests are substantial as
First,
trade between Japan and South Korea reached $107.9 billion in 2011, a 16.7 percent increase over the
previous year. Foreign direct investment between the two countries is also considerable. Seoul and Tokyo
Officials
from both countries indicated the deal had nothing to do with
politics and the island dispute, but is difficult to determine if these
issues were truly delinked. During the November 2012 ASEAN meeting, China, Japan, and
had been working on expanding a currency swap deal but that ended in October 2012.
South Korea announced the start of negotiations for a free trade agreement. Japanese and South Korean
finance ministers held their annual meeting in Seoul on November 24-25, a positive sign that dialogue on
The United States can

encourage this type of contact to help maintain stable relations. In
addition, Washington should firmly remind both sides that
provocative actions of any kind are not helpful to managing the
issue before a final solution can be reached. State Department Spokesperson
these fronts can continue, despite tensions over the islands.
Victoria Nuland declared: Both of these countries are strong, important, valued allies of the United States.
Its obviously not comfortable for us when they have a dispute between them. So our message to each of
them is the same: Work this out, work it out peacefully, work it out through consultations.
Dispute resolution impossiblepresidential visits and

Olympics tensions (lol) prove.
The Dokdo/Takeshima dispute heated up again in August 2012 when

President Lee visited the islands, the first ROK president to do so.
While talking to police on the island, Lee stated Dokdo is the end of our territory.
Please make sure to defend Dokdo well. Dokdo is indeed our
territory and a place worth staking our lives to defend. Lets make
sure to safeguard (the islets) with pride. Only a few hours later,
South Korea defeated Japan 2-0 for the bronze medal in Olympic
soccer. Following the match, one of the ROK players grabbed a sign from someone in the
crowd that proclaimed, Dokdo is our land. The midfielder, Park Jong-woo will likely not
receive his medal though an investigation is ongoing, but he did become a national hero
in South Korea. The Japanese response was immediate. In a press
conference, Prime Minister Noda declared Lees visit was unacceptable
and very regrettable; Both historically and by international law, Takeshima
belongs to Japan. Japan also recalled its ambassador to South Korea and summoned Seouls
ambassador for an explanation. Lee added further to strained relations a few days later by demanding that
Emperor Akihito apologize for Japanese colonialism before visiting South Korea. Lee later maintained that
he had been quoted out of context but the damage had been done. Japanese officials were miffed by the
remark and
Noda told Japanese lawmakers that Lees comment

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considerably deviates from common sense and he should

apologize for and retract it. Noda sent a letter of protest to the South Korean government
but Seoul refused to accept it. Japanese officials also threatened to take the issue to the International Court
of Justice. Though this move would be strong response, it is also a moot point since both parties would
need to agree to submit the issue before the court would accept the matter for consideration. Lees visit
came at a time when relations between Seoul and Tokyo were already strained over the World War II sex
slave issue and South Koreas last minute postponement to sign the General Security of Military
Information Agreement (GSOMIA). The GSOMIA debacle was largely a failure of the Lee administration to
All in all, South Korea-Japan

relations were as bad as they had been for many years.
adroitly guide a difficult policy measure to its conclusion.

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2NC Ext US Bias in Intervention

Would be perceived as leaning towards one country.
Another alternative that some have proposed is to have

Washington act as mediator to facilitate a solution reached by Seoul
and Tokyo. In July 2012, Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum CSIS proposed that: As an
ally and trusted friend of both nations, Washington is well suited to
play the mediator role, assuming both sides ask for intervention
the first rule of preventive diplomacy is that outside assistance is
voluntarily sought and accepted. President Obama should privately offer to provide an
Mediation?
impartial mediator to help craft a statement that both sides can accept in order to help finally settle or at
least depoliticize this issue. Someone like former President Bill Clinton or former National Security Advisor
Brent Scowcroft comes quickly to mind. Mediation is far preferable to exerting pressure on Japan and
South Korea for a solution and the United States could quietly offer to assist. Such a path avoids using
coercion on these two allies and would hopefully reduce the tension level while generating some type of
there remains significant danger that the

United States would appear biased either in fact, favoring one side
or the other, or being perceived by either allies as favoring one over
the other. In addition, as Cossa points out, the key is assuming both sides ask
for the intervention. South Koreas position has long been that there is no dispute.
dialogue to address the issue. Yet,
Consequently, Seouls response to calls for mediation is likely to produce the same answer as Japans
proposals to take the matter to the ICJ there is no dispute; Dokdo is Korean territory.

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***LA Keerthi Cards

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A2 Indo Pak War

Deterrence checks- actors will be rational.
Stimon Center 13 (nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international
peace and security , Stimson's programming on South Asia is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of
New York, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and by the National Nuclear Security
Administration, cites Rob Williams- National Intelligence Officer for South Asia, Missiles In South Asia:
Deterrence Stability On The Subcontinent, http://www.stimson.org/events/missiles-in-south-asiadeterrence-stability-on-the-subcontinent/, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
To conclude, Williams emphasized the dynamism of the nuclear

competition in southern Asia and the complex interactions involving
nuclear, conventional, and sub-conventional capabilities on the subcontinent.
He cautioned against viewing the India-Pakistan relationship as a
dyad comparable to the U.S.-Soviet relationship during the Cold War.
Instead, security equations in southern Asia involve at least four
countries - including the United States - and are governed by
complex feedback loops that must be considered in efforts to address
regional instabilities. Krepon closed the meeting by thanking our two
speakers, and by noting two disquieting doctrinal features of the nuclear
competition of the subcontinent. One appears to be the growing
expectation that, as nuclear capabilities grow, they can compel
behavior. He noted that, while nuclear weapons have demonstrated
utility for deterrence, their track record for compellence is weak. A
second noteworthy doctrinal echo from the Cold War is India's
reliance on massive retaliation to deter any crossing of the nuclear
threshold. Political leaders do not usually feel comfortable with the
doctrine of massive retaliation, which has tended to be a transitory
stage en route to more flexible response options.

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A2 African Wars
No war and no escalation- Gettleman is wrong.
Strauss 13 (Scott, African Arguments researcher, Guardian African
Network, Africa is becoming more peaceful, despite the war in Mali,

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/30/africa-peaceful-mali-war, DOA
8/1/13, Keerthi)
Recent events in Mali, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan seem to
confirm one of the most durable stereotypes of Africa, namely that
the continent is unstable and uniquely prone to nasty political violence. Writing in Foreign Policy two years ago,
New York Times east Africa correspondent and Pulitzer Prize winner Jeffrey Gettleman espoused this view . He
painted a dismal picture of pointless wars waged by brutes and criminals "spreading across Africa like a viral pandemic."
Gettleman is right that warfare and political violence are changing on the continent, but he is wrong to portray
that change as one of brutal violence increasing out of control. In fact, as I
show in a recent piece in African Affairs, looked at since the end of the cold war, wars are not becoming more
frequent in sub-Saharan Africa. To the contrary: according to the Uppsala Armed Conflict Data Program, the
pre-eminent tracker of warfare worldwide, wars in the 2000s are substantially down from
their peak in the early 1990s. Even if one counts an uptick during the past two years, there were
about one-third fewer wars in sub-Saharan Africa in the period compared to the early-to-mid 1990s. Another
prevailing view is that sub-Saharan Africa is the most war-endemic region. Not so, especially if one looks at the continent's history since 1960.
Wars in sub-Saharan Africa (compared to other world regions) are not longer or more
frequent on a wars-per-country basis. Those distinctions effectively go to Asia, where between wars in
India, Afghanistan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, among others, wars are more frequent and longer lasting. The pattern holds true for
extreme cases of mass killing, like Rwanda in 1994 and Darfur in the mid-2000s. Such events are on the decline in Africa; viewed across time,
Africa is also not the regional leader of such events on a per-country basis. My point is not to engage in crude regionalism, but rather to
we may be
witnessing significant shifts in the nature of political violence on the
continent. Wars are on the decline since the 1990s, but the character of warfare is also changing. Today there are
fewer big wars fought for state control in which insurgents maintain
substantial control of territory and put up well-structured armies to
fight their counterparts in the state Mali not withstanding. Such wars were modal into the 1990s. From
suggest that what often transpires as common sense about sub-Saharan Africa is wrong. The bigger point is that
southern Africa in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, and even Zimbabwe to the long wars in the Horn in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan to the Great
Lakes wars in Rwanda and Uganda, the typical armed conflict in Africa involved two major, territory-holding armies fighting each other for
wars typically are smaller. They most often involve small

insurgencies of factionalised rebels on the peripheries of states. Today's wars also play out differently. They exhibit cross-border
state control. Today's
dimensions, and rather than drawing funding from big external states they depend on illicit trade, banditry, and international terrorist
networks.
African wars are inevitable and outside action cant solve.

DONT READ IF YOU READ 1NC STRAUS.
Gettleman 10 (Jeffrey, Jeffrey Gettleman is East Africa bureau chief for
the New York Times, correspondent at FoPo Magazine,Africas Forever Wars,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/22/africas_forever_wars?
page=0,0, DOA 8/1/13, Keerthi)
There is a very simple reason why some of Africa's bloodiest, most
brutal wars never seem to end: They are not really wars. Not in the traditional
sense, at least. The combatants don't have much of an ideology; they don't have
clear goals. They couldn't care less about taking over capitals or major cities -- in fact,
they prefer the deep bush, where it is far easier to commit crimes. Today's rebels seem especially
uninterested in winning converts, content instead to steal other people's children, stick Kalashnikovs or

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axes in their hands, and make them do the killing. Look closely at some of the continent's most intractable conflicts, from the rebel-laden
What we are
seeing is the decline of the classic African liberation movement and the proliferation of
creeks of the Niger Delta to the inferno in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and this is what you will find.
something else -- something wilder, messier, more violent, and harder to wrap our heads around. If you'd like to call this war, fine. But what is
spreading across Africa like a viral pandemic is actually just opportunistic, heavily armed banditry. My job as the New York Times' East Africa
bureau chief is to cover news and feature stories in 12 countries. But most of my time is spent immersed in these un-wars. I've witnessed up
close -- often way too close -- how combat has morphed from soldier vs. soldier (now a rarity in Africa) to soldier vs. civilian. Most of today's
African fighters are not rebels with a cause; they're predators. That's why we see stunning atrocities like
eastern Congo's rape epidemic, where armed groups in recent years have sexually assaulted hundreds of thousands of women, often so
sadistically that the victims are left incontinent for life. What is the military or political objective of ramming an assault rifle inside a woman
This is the story across much of

Africa, where nearly half of the continent's 53 countries are home to
an active conflict or a recently ended one. Quiet places such as Tanzania are the lonely exceptions;
and pulling the trigger? Terror has become an end, not just a means.
even user-friendly, tourist-filled Kenya blew up in 2008. Add together the casualties in just the dozen countries that I cover, and you have a
death toll of tens of thousands of civilians each year. More than 5 million have died in Congo alone since 1998, the International Rescue
Committee has estimated. Of course, many of the last generation's independence struggles were bloody, too. South Sudan's decades-long
rebellion is thought to have cost more than 2 million lives. But this is not about numbers. This is about methods and objectives, and the
leaders driving them. Uganda's top guerrilla of the 1980s, Yoweri Museveni, used to fire up his rebels by telling them they were on the ground
floor of a national people's army. Museveni became president in 1986, and he's still in office (another problem, another story). But his words
seem downright noble compared with the best-known rebel leader from his country today, Joseph Kony, who just gives orders to burn.
Even if you could coax these men out of their jungle lairs and get
them to the negotiating table, there is very little to offer them. They
don't want ministries or tracts of land to govern. Their armies are often traumatized
children, with experience and skills (if you can call them that) totally unsuited for civilian life. All they want is cash, guns, and a license to
How do you negotiate with that? The short

answer is you don't. The only way to stop today's rebels for real is to capture or kill their leaders. Many are uniquely
rampage. And they've already got all three.
devious characters whose organizations would likely disappear as soon as they do. That's what happened in Angola when the diamondsmuggling rebel leader Jonas Savimbi was shot, bringing a sudden end to one of the Cold War's most intense conflicts. In Liberia, the moment
that warlord-turned-president Charles Taylor was arrested in 2006 was the same moment that the curtain dropped on the gruesome circus of
10-year-old killers wearing Halloween masks. Countless dollars, hours, and lives have been wasted on fruitless rounds of talks that will never
culminate in such clear-cut results. The same could be said of indictments of rebel leaders for crimes against humanity by the International
Criminal Court. With the prospect of prosecution looming, those fighting are sure never to give up.

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A2 Asian Instability

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A2: Paki Collapse

China and the Paki military checks instability.
Xinhua 13 (5-23, China to support Pakistan in realizing stability, better
development: premier, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/201305/23/c_132403944.htm, Accessed 8/2/13, Keerthi)
ISLAMABAD, May 23 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese government will unswervingly stick
to its friendly policy toward Pakistan and support the South Asian
nation in realizing stability and better development, visiting Chinese Premier
Li Keqiang said here Thursday. Li was speaking during a meeting with Pakistani military leaders including
Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Khalid Shameem Wynne, Chief of Army Staff General
Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief of Naval Staff Muhammad Asif Sandila and Chief of Air Staff Marshal Tahir
Rafique Butt. "The
Pakistani military is not only an important force in

maintaining security and stability in Pakistan, but also a firm supporter of the ChinaPakistan friendship," said Li. The friendship between China and Pakistan is
unbreakable thanks to not only the efforts of generations of leaders of both sides and the fervent
support of the two peoples, but also the in-depth development of the ties between the two militaries, Li
He urged the international community to help Pakistan

overcome difficulties and cope with challenges under the premise of respecting its
independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. As a good neighbor, friend and partner, China
pays close attention to the development of situation in Pakistan and
respects the development path chosen by the Pakistani people in accordance with their
national situations, Li said. China supports concerned parties in Pakistan to
jointly contribute to maintaining political stability , developing
economy and improving people's livelihood in the fundamental interests of the
nation, Li said, adding China is willing to provide assistance to Pakistan within its capability. China
would like to deepen military relations, enhance communication in
defense and constantly expand cooperation to new fields with
Pakistan, Li said.
said.

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A2: Afghan Collapse

NATO policy through 2018 checks.
Hirsh 13 (Michael, chief correspondent for National Journal, May 13,
NATO's Plan for Afghanistan Post-2014: A 'Stable Instability',
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/05/natos-plan-forafghanistan-post-2014-a-stable-instability/275803/, Accessed 8/2/13, Keerthi)
Many Americans think we're winding down in Afghanistan by the end of next year, for better or for worse.
We're not. Despite America's evident desire to extricate itself from the nation's longest war, Taliban
fighters, criminal gangs, and other insurgents continue to terrorize much of Afghanistan, making travel
around the country as difficult as it's ever been. And the grim bargain that has dogged U.S. efforts in
Afghanistan since the beginning of President Obama's "surge" still holds: The United States must find a
way to supply and support an Afghan national army and police force that Washington has largely built but
which is barely in its adolescence, although it is already 10 times the size of the fierce Taliban insurgency it
is fighting. More from National Journal Did David Plouffe Justify IRS Targeting Conservatives? New
NATO's Plan for Afghanistan Post2014: A 'Stable Instability' Senior commanders with the American-led International Security
Assistance Force, which consists of 28 NATO countries and 22 other participating
nations, say that substantial aid and military support is going to be
necessary well after the scheduled withdrawal at the end of 2014. "For
some time to come, it's our expectation that we will need to supply the Afghans [with]
air support, certainly, counter-IED support, logistic support, and a
number of areas where their capabilities are not at the level where
they need to be at," Lt. Gen. Nick Carter, the deputy ISAF commander, said in an interview in
Kabul over the weekend. "It's our expectation that we'll need to continue to build those
areas for some time to come and probably beyond 2014." Asked how many
Fracking Rules Have Environmental Groups Worried
years that role might go, Carter, a British officer, said he believes that ISAF will need to "set the horizon
out to 2018 ... It will take between three and five years to achieve. And it's important for people to
understand that."

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A2: Central Asian Instability

TONS of alt causes to stability
Mankoff 13 (Jeffrey, deputy director and fellow with the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program, Scholar
at Columbia University, Ph.D. In diplomatic history, MA in Political Science, January 2013, The United
States and Central Asia after 2014, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
http://csis.org/files/publication/130122_Mankoff_USCentralAsia_Web.pdf, Accessed 8/2/13, Keerthi)
Bad as Central Asias intramural rivalries are, the biggest dangers to

stability in the years after 2014 lie in the dysfunctional political and
social environments within the individual Central Asian states, which the U.S. focus on security
has left Washington in a poor position to address. Across the region, repressive governments
and a lack of opportunities fuel discontent occasionally tinged with
radicalism. Outside Kazakhstan, booming populations and corruption
magnify this discontent, while also sapping governments ability to
respond to the underlying social and economic problems they face. Corruption flourishes
in part because Central Asia has emerged as the major route
through which Afghan drugs reach markets in Russia and Europe.
State capacity in Kyr- gyzstan and Tajikistan in particular has been compromised by
drug-related corruption, while Turkmenistan has declared drug addiction (including among
members of the security services) a national catastrophe.29 ISAFs failure to address the
production of opium inside Afghanistan has contributed to the problem.
US will ALWAYS deter and cooperation in the region.

Mankoff 13 (Jeffrey, deputy director and fellow with the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program, Scholar
at Columbia University, Ph.D. In diplomatic history, MA in Political Science, January 2013, The United
States and Central Asia after 2014, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
http://csis.org/files/publication/130122_Mankoff_USCentralAsia_Web.pdf, Accessed 8/2/13, Keerthi)
Because recent U.S. engagement has been driven by the war in Afghanistan, once the war (or at least the direct U.S. role in it) is over,
Central Asia will cease to be a first-order, or even second- order, priority for the United
States. Concerns about U.S. staying power in Afghanistan are already leading states across the region to hedge their bets. While Washington
will have more pressing interests elsewhere, including in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific, it needs to avoid the temptation to turn its back
on Central Asia. With Central Asias own future increasingly in doubt, the United States needs topublicly and privatelyemphasize that its
interests in Central Asia are enduring, and that it will remain engaged at multiple levels even after its combat troops have left Afghanistan.
Even though U.S. priorities are shifting at the global level,

Washington will continue to have important interests at stake in
Central Asia that require sustained engagement. These include preventing
the emergence of failed states that could become a staging ground
for international terrorism, avoiding regional conflicts that could
draw in neighboring powers (many of them with nuclear weapons),
and limiting Central Asias ability to act as a transit route for
transnational threats such as drugs. Moreover, having entre to Central Asia enhances U.S. ability to
influence developments in Afghanistanas well as Pakistanwhich both face worsening insurgencies and the growth of radical forces. As
a nonregional power, the United States is not viewed as a threat by
most of the Central Asian regimes, which is a key reason they
welcome a strong U.S. role. The U.S. should make clear its commitment to remain engaged after 2014, while
announcing that it will in return emphasize concrete progress on political and economic reform. Convincing the Central Asian governments, as
well as other regional powers, that the U.S. will maintain its focus on the region after 2014 will not be easy, especially in an era of tight
budgets and military cutbacks. The optics are already bad. U.S. appropriations for its Central Asia policy have declined from $328 million in
2002 to $96 million in 2013.84

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A2 Amazon Rainforest
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1nc Amazon Rainforest

Drug trafficking has been occurring in the Amazon
rainforest for decades that disproves the impact.
The Amazon is resilient- data proves.
Maslin 5 (Mark Maslin, director of the Department of Geography, University College London, director
of the UCL Environment Institute, The longevity and resilience of the Amazon rainforest,
http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198567066.001.0001/acprof9780198567066-chapter-14, Keerthi, Accessed 10/21/13)
This chapter highlights and explains the impressive story of the

persistence of the Amazonian rainforest throughout the Cenozoic.
Palaeoclimate and palaeoecological records suggest that the
Amazon rainforest originated in the late Cretaceous and has been a
permanent feature of South America for at least the last 55 million
years. During the late Palaocene the rainforest or megathermal moist forest (MTMF) may have stretched as far
south as 45S in South America. The main climatic feature of the last 55 million
years has been global cooling and the general constriction of the
megathermal moist forests to the tropics. However, the Amazon rainforest
has survived the high temperatures of the early Eocene climate optimum and the
aridity and low carbon dioxide levels of the Quaternary glacial periods. The Amazon
rainforest should, therefore, not be viewed as a geologically
ephemeral feature of South America, but rather as a constant
feature of the global Cenozoic biosphere. The forest is now, however, entering a set of
climatic conditions with no past analogue.
Brazilian conservation solves biodiversity.

Schwartzman 13 (Steve Schwartzman, leads EDF, anthropologist, has
done field work with indigenous people in the Amazon, Tragedy and
Transformation: Deforestation in the Amazon
http://www.edf.org/blog/2013/03/20/tragedy-and-transformationdeforestation-amazon, Keerthi, Acc 10/21/13)
Until recently, the preservation of this vast rainforest not to mention the
existence of hundreds of indigenous people and a large percentage of the planets plant and animal
species looked like a hopeless cause. Thats because, starting in the late 1960s,
Brazil began cutting down and burning forest at an alarming rate. To date, it has cleared 18% of the
it was very good news when, in 2005,

Brazils annual deforestation rate unexpectedly began to fall. It went
from about 27,000 square kilometers in 2004 to about 4,500 square
kilometers in 2012. This is very close to the 80 percent reduction rate
original Amazon an area the size of France.
So
that Brazil adopted in its climate change law only the law gave the country until
2020 to reach that figure. Brazil did this, in part, by creating national parks and
recognizing indigenous lands over an area that was, yet again, the size
of France. It also started to enforce its once lax forest protection
laws. There are lots of characters in this story ranchers, farmers, environmentalists, government
agents. But I think that to understand how Brazil managed to become the world
leader in reducing deforestation, you need to know the story of my friend Krentoma.

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Venezuelan oil and timber development should trigger the link.

Monga Bay, last updated 2011 (uploaded February 5, 2006, Venezuela: Environmental
Profile, http://rainforests.mongabay.com/20venezuela.htm, organization seeking to raise interest in
conservation of wild lands and wildlife, while examining emerging trends in climate, technology,
economics, and finance on conservation, http://rainforests.mongabay.com/20venezuela.htm, Keerthi,
Accessed 8/26/13)
Venezuela, one of the ten most biodiverse countries on Earth, is

home to extensive rainforests that are increasingly threatened by
development . Each year, roughly 287,600 hectares of forest are permanently destroyed, while other areas
are degraded by logging, mining, and oil extraction . Between 1990 and 2005, Venezuela officially
lost 8.3 percent of its forest cover, or around 4,313,000 hectares. Energy is Venezuela's most
important export and President Hugo Chavez has used oil as a
political tool to extend his influence to other parts of Latin America. In 2006, Chavez announced plans to build a
massive gas pipeline that would carry natural gas from the oil-rich state 5,000 miles south.
Environmentalists fear that the project could damage the Amazon

rainforest by polluting waterways and creating roads that would
attract developers and poor farmers. Analysts also question the wisdom and viability of the
plan, which may cost $20-50 billion depending on who makes the estimate. Venezuela also continues to expand the
construction of an electricity transmission line towards Brazil. When completed, the transmission line will carry power from
the massive Guri hydroelectric projectit in itself considered an ecological disaster for the amount of land it flooded in the
Environmentalists are
concerned that the lines will give colonists and developers access to
remote forest areas.
early 1980sthrough sensitive forest areas to Roraima state in Brazil.
Their impact evidence is alarmist and empirically denied

Kaleita 7 Amy Kaleita is an Environmental Studies Fellow and Assistant
Professor of agricultural and biosystems engineering at Iowa State University.

She holds a PhD in agricultural engineering from the University of Illinois.
"Hysteria's History: Environmental Alarmism in Context," Pacific Research
Institute,
http://www.pacificresearch.org/docLib/20070920_Hysteria_History.pdf
Apocalyptic stories about the irreparable, catastrophic damage that humans
are doing to the natural environment have been around for a long
time. These hysterics often have some basis in reality, but are
blown up to illogical and ridiculous proportions . Part of the reason theyre so appealing is that they
have the ring of plausibility along with the intrigue of a horror flick. In many cases, the alarmists identify a legitimate
issue, take the possible consequences to an extreme, and advocate action on the basis of
these extreme projections. In 1972, the editor of the journal Nature pointed out the problem with the typical alarmist
approach: [Alarmists] most common error is to suppose that the
worst will always happen.82 But of course, if the worst always
happened, the human race would have died out long ago. When alarmism has a
basis in reality, the challenge becomes to take appropriate action based on that reality, not on the hysteria. The aftermath of Silent Spring offers examples of both sorts of
policy reactions: a reasoned response to a legitimate problem and a knee-jerk response to the hysteria. On the positive side, Silent Spring brought an end to the general
belief that all synthetic chemicals in use for purposes ranging from insect control to household cleaning were uniformly wonderful, and it ushered in an age of increased
caution on their appropriate use. In the second chapter of her famous book, Carson wrote, It is not my contention that chemical insecticides must never be used. I do
contend that we have allowed these chemicals to be used with little or no advance investigation of their effect on soil, water, wildlife, and man himself. Indeed,
Carson seemed to advocate reasoned response to rigorous scientific investigation, and in fact this did become the modern approach to environmental chemical licensure
and monitoring. An hour-long CBS documentary on pesticides was aired during the height of the furor over Silent Spring. In the documentary, Dr. Page Nicholson, a waterpollution expert with the Public Health Service, wasnt able to answer how long pesticides persist in water once they enter it, or the extent to which pesticides contaminate
groundwater supplies. Today, this sort of information is gathered through routine testing of chemicals for use in the environment. Ironically, rigorous investigation was
not used in the decision to ban DDT, primarily due to the hysteria Silent Spring generated. In this example, the hysteria took on a life of its own, even trumping the
authors original intent. There was, as we have seen, a more sinister and tragic response to the hysteria generated by Silent Spring. Certain developing countries, under
significant pressure from the United States, abandoned the use of DDT. This decision resulted in millions of deaths from malaria and other insect-borne diseases. In the
absence of pressure to abandon the use of DDT, these lives would have been spared. It would certainly have been possible to design policies requiring caution and safe
practices in the use of supplemental chemicals in the environment, without pronouncing a death sentence on millions of people. A major challenge in developing
appropriate responses to legitimate problems is that alarmism catches peoples attention and draws them in. Alarmism is given more weight than it deserves, as policy
makers attempt to appease their constituency and the media. It polarizes the debaters into groups of believers and skeptics, so that reasoned, fact-based compromise
is difficult to achieve. Neither of these aspects of alarmism is healthy for the development of appropriate policy. Further, alarmist responses to valid problems risk
foreclosing potentially useful responses based on ingenuity and progress. There are many examples from the energy sector where, in the presence of economic, efficiency,
or societal demands, the marketplace has responded by developing better alternatives. That is not to say that we should blissfully squander our energy resources; on the
contrary, we should be careful to utilize them wisely. But energy-resource hysteria should not lead us to circumvent scientific advancement by cherry-picking and favoring

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Environmental alarmism should be taken for what it isa natural tendency of
Alarmism should not be used as

the basis for policy. Where a real problem exists, solutions should be based on reality, not hysteria.
some portion of the public to latch onto the worst, and most unlikely, potential outcome.

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A2 Chemical Industry
Chem industry is resilient- product, geography, diversity.
ICIS 12 (November 11, NACD: Chemical distributors resilient in the face of
challenging economic climate, Chemical Industry News & Chemical Market

Intelligence,
http://www.icis.com/Articles/2011/11/14/9507669/nacd+chemical+distributor
s+resilient+in+the+face+of+challenging+economic.html, Accessed 8/2/13,
Keerthi)
Chemical distributors have performed well in the US, despite the
challenging economic climate. Their resilience stems from product
and geographic diversity Opportunities abound for distributors, despite the difficult
economic environment. A diverse portfolio, in terms of geography and industry segmentation,
has provided a resilience that has helped to generate better results
for many in the past two years. Indeed, profitability has improved and
chemical companies have done better in 2011 than in 2010 on sales and margin
so far, says Andrew Walberer, a US-based vice president at global management consultancy A.T. Kearney.
William Fidler, president and CEO of Reading, Philadelphia-based Brenntag North America, says that the
first half of 2011 has been very good, with sales worldwide up by 18% and operating profit expressed as
earnings before interest, tax, depreciations and amortization (EBIDTA) up by 15.5% both at a constant
rate of exchange.

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A2 US China Relations
Updated
US-China relations are lowUS and China dont approach
the same issues and dialogue is constrained.
Elizabeth C. Economy, June 7 2013, Obama and Xi: Can the United States and China Speak
the Same Language? C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies;
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2013/06/07/obama-and-xi-can-the-united-states-and-china-speak-the-samelanguage/, KTG
the drumbeat from Beijing

has been consistent and insistent: China and the United States should build a new type of great power relations.
The message from the U.S. side, in contrast, has been all about the
specifics : cyber-hacking, North Korea, human rights, and economic issues. Both sides are touting the
opportunity for the two presidents to get to know each other, but it
wont be easy if they are not speaking the same language . The truth is that
Washington and Beijing rarely approach the relationship in the same
manner. The Chinese approach the relationship by first establishing a
concept or set of principles; details to follow. The United States, in contrast, is all about
the issues and the details. Establishing a concept for the relationship or putting it in a framework is a fourth or fifth-order issue. This
Leading up to todays summit between U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping,
time around the Chinese are trying their best to flesh out their concept of a new relationshipan acknowledgement, perhaps, that it wont go anywhere if there arent
proliferation of official and semi-official Chinese voices has produced a din

that makes it difficult to discern the real message. Some Chinese officials argue that the new
specifics attached. Yet the
relationship depends on the United States; China has already done its part. Former Chinese Ambassador L Fengding, for example, has claimed that since China has
done its utmost to show its sincerity, Americans should take practical steps as well. At the very least
, the US should stop
fabricating excuses, such as alleged cyber-attacks to vilify China, mislead the American public opinion and sabotage a [sic] prosperous SinoAmerican relations. The United States should also try to clarify its intentions for implementing its rebalancing strategy in Asia-Pacific, as well as refrain from interfering in
Others are more even-handed. According to Yang Jiemian, a

new relationship means new
thoughts, new thinking, a new code of conduct, and new values. More
specifically, Yang suggests that the United States and China should transcend their
difference in ideologies; establish new attitudes to build up new shared values; mutually support each other on important global issues;
Chinas internal affairs on matters of the Chinese core interests.
leading Chinese scholar and brother of former Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi, the
and coordinate strategic thoughts and policies. And China Institute of International Studies Vice President Ruan Zongze has argued that the main purpose of the new
relationship is to avoid a zero-sum game featuring historical relations between big powers jostling for hegemony by force. Threaded through all these disparate views,
however, is a sense that there is something more that the Chinese are seeking, something they dont want to have to ask for, namely, as Jamil Anderlini suggests in the
the United States is not prepared to

endorse such a partnership. Instead it has elected to interpret the
Chinese concept of a new type of great power relations only in the
narrowest sensethat put forward by Ruan. Former National Security Advisor Tom Donilon, in a speech before the Asia Society, noted that it falls
Financial Times, a partnership of equals. However, it appears that for now
to both sidesthe United States and Chinato build a new model of relations between an existing power and an emerging one in order to avoid realizing the premise
For its part, the United

States isnt advancing any new ideas for the summit and, thus, there
is not much confusion over its message. The United States wants what it always wantsChina to stop: stop
put forward by some historians and theorists that a rising power and an established power are somehow destined for conflict.
cyberhacking, stop IP theft, stop human rights abuses, stop North Koreas nuclear program, stop ratcheting up tensions in the East and South China Sea, and stop
As deaf as the United States appears to Chinas

hopes for the summit, the Chinese are equally deaf to U.S. calls. Maybe its
establishing barriers to free trade and investment.
not that the two countries dont speak the same language, its just that they dont want to hear what the other is saying.

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Alt causes to relations

A) Cybersecurity
NPR, June 8 2013, Cybersecurity Deemed Central To U.S.-China
Relations, http://www.npr.org/2013/06/08/189928150/cybersecurity-deemedcentral-to-u-s-china-relations
President Obama used an unusually lengthy and informal desert summit to present Chinese President Xi Jingping with
detailed evidence of intellectual property theft emanating from his country, as a top U.S. official declared Saturday that
cybersecurity is now at the "center of the relationship" between the

world's largest economies. While there were few clear policy
breakthroughs on cybersecurity, U.S. officials said Obama and Xi were in broad agreement over
the need for North Korea to be denuclearized. And both countries expressed optimism that the closer personal ties forged
between the two leaders during the California summit could stem the mistrust between the world powers. Still, Obama's
resolving cybersecurity issues would be "key

to the future" of the relationship. Obama told Xi that "if it's not addressed, if
it continues to be this direct theft of United States property, that
this was going to be very difficult problem in the economic
relationship and was going to be an inhibitor to the relationship
really reaching its full potential," Donilon said during a briefing with reporters following the
national security adviser Tom Donilon said
summit.
B) Deterrence and territorial policy.

Sheena Chestnut Greitens, June 11 2013, U.S.-China Relations and Alliances in Asia,
Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary; Academy Scholar, Harvard Academy for International and Area
Studies, Harvard University; http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/06/11-us-china-relationsasia-alliances-greitens
Linking the U.S.-China relationship to rebalancing , however, further

highlights the dilemma that the United States faces when it comes
to alliance management in the context of increased focus on the
Asia-Pacific and increased fiscal constraints at home. Despite a web of deepening
intra-regional security arrangements,[13] Americas allies and partners in Asia also have
significant historical and territorial disputes remaining between
them. Since 1945, therefore, the United States role in Asia has been not only to dampen security dilemmas between its alliance partners
and external powers, but between the various alliance partners themselves.[14] As part of the rebalancing, the United
States is debating how burden-sharing within its various
partnerships might be adjusted, and whether some of the alliances
might be able to take on increased responsibility for regional and
global security. Encouraging activism, however, may come with a cost, engendering conflict among American allies
themselves and weakening American extended deterrence. It simply may not be tenable for the United States to encourage its allies to take
more responsibility for and a more active role in their own security in some areas, but ask them to abide by a status quo that they perceive to
be unfavorable in others. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the past few months have seen an increase in cooperation among U.S. allies, but also
significant levels of friction in the region: tension between South Korea and Japan that led to the cancellation of high-level meetings and the
scuppering of an intelligence-sharing agreement; a shooting incident between Taiwan and the Philippines; and a standoff between Japan and
Conflicts among U.S. allies weaken extended

deterrence, hamper the creation of coordinated and de-escalatory
responses to regional crises, and inhibit the ability to conduct
effective coercive diplomacy where necessary .[15]
China in the waters disputed by the two sides.

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A2 Methane Drilling
Benefits are all hype and trying to mine it throws warming
past the tipping point.
Rowell 13 (Andy, 7/29, Methane Hydrate Hype Continues,
http://priceofoil.org/2013/07/29/methane-hydrate-hype-continues/, Accessed
8/2/13, Keerthi)
Just as the concern surrounding leaking methane hydrates increases from a
climate perspective, with scientists warning about a $60 trillion
economic time-bomb, so does the hype about tapping hydrates as
an energy resource. I blogged back in March this year about the madness
of trying to drill methane hydrates sometimes called fire ice and what this
would mean for the climate. Lets not forget that methane is a much more
potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. However the methane
hydrate hype continues. The Wall Street Journal European edition today
reports that scientists in Japan and the US say they are moving closer
to tapping the methane hydrate resource which they put at 700,000
trillion cubic feet or more energy than all previously discovered oil and gas
combined. And that energy contains one hell of a lot of carbon. In
short, methane hydrates are likely to be fools gold. As the
Washington Post has pointed out before: If a significant fraction of
hydrates are developed the bottom line is that It could prove
impossible to keep global warming below the goal of 2C.

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Latin American Instability

Cards

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Generic L.A. Instability

Latin American instability causes war, spills over to the
broader hemisphere, lasts longer than conventional wars,
and exacerbates all political and religious issues.
Boz 11 (James, February 1, Freelance writer and consultant working on Latin American politics,
security, economics and technology issues, regarded as one of the top foreign policy bloggers and
reporters, runs his popular Latin American foreign policy blog called Blogging by Boz, Could instability
spread to Latin America? http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/02/could-instability-spread-to-latin.html,
DOA 7/11/13, Keerthi)
given the current unrest
and
global trends
Even
in the news
watching the
, I'm not ready to say
yes to this being a crisis year, a sort of collision of global, regional and local circumstances that cause many governments to face change at
what would it mean for Latin America?

Latin America is not the Middle East . Nearly all the governments
the same time. But the possibility is there. If it is a crisis year,
First, not surprising to readers,
are democratically elected, though with their various flaws and modifying adjectives. It's a different history, culture and economy.
People have different expectations of their governments . That said, some of Latin
America's democracies have been less stable than the MidEast dictatorships over the past two decades. Latin Americans
feel many of the same frustrations in terms of governments not delivering on
their promises of economic development and social justice. Being different means Latin America experiences instability
differently, not that it's immune to destabilizing events. Second, what would regional instability look like? I think
it would mean significant protests in many countries and an unscheduled
change of government (via protest, coup, forced resignation, or
other event) in 3 or 4 countries in the hemisphere this year. It may also include the
possibility for violent conflict, civil war, or "dueling governments" in
which two different groups try to claim they are the legitimate governing authorities in a country. It's not a pretty
picture. It's a scenario I fear and a prediction I'm very reluctant to make (so I'm not making it yet; to stress, I'm not certain this is what
we will see, but it's possible). Third, think in terms of months, not days . With the
speed of events in the Middle East combined with the immediacy of new media coverage, it feels
like everything is sprinting towards a dramatic conclusion (people will be writing
me next week to claim that I'm wrong because nothing has happened in Latin America yet). The protests in Tunisia took weeks to topple the
government and Egypt is still going on after a week. If this is linked to global commodity prices and we think those prices are going to increase
Fourth, how would

regional instability interact with the ongoing violent crime problems ?
While Latin America doesn't face problems of religious extremism like the Middle East, it does have a
serious organized crime and street crime problem that makes portions of the region some of
the most violent in the world. A sudden destabilization of governments
would certainly impact how organized crime functions and governments' ability to fight
against it. Additionally, the violent crime issue may increase the chance
certain governments destabilize. Fifth, yes, local issues matter. It may
be a global or regional pressures creating instability. But protesters' success and
governments' resiliency once that instability begins depends largely on
local factors individual to that country. Understanding the country-by-country situation remains very
important, even in the face of a larger trend. Finally, think the unthinkable. Even countries that you
this year, then we could be looking at a very tough May or July or October that makes January 2011 look easy.
think are stable could be hit suddenly by this . It's not just countries
that many analysts think are unstable in their democracies (i.e. Guatemala,
Honduras, Ecuador and Paraguay). We should also be watching Chile, Colombia, Peru, Cuba and others. If this is
a "crisis year," then governments are going to be destabilized in ways that you thought six months ago would be near impossible.

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*State Collapse Wars Impact

Mexico is on the brink of collapseinstability ensures fullscale war from state collapse.
Shingal 11 Ankur Shingal, University of California, Los Angeles, At the
Tipping Point: Why the United States Must Assist Mexico in the Mexican Drug
War Agathai Quarterly Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, Winter 2011
http://www.mortarboardatucla.org/uploads/4/7/8/9/4789362/winter_journal.pd
f#page=26
The third reason why the United States must enhance its aid to Mexico is the possibility of a failed Mexican
The drug war in Mexico has become a life or death struggle for
the Mexican government. Despite substantial US aid, the Mexican authorities
remain outgunned and outmanned. The drug cartels, although not acting as
an alternative government per say, enjoy near autonomy throughout a number of
cities across the country, including border cities such as Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez. In effect, the
Mexican government has completely committed itself to fighting
against the drug cartels, but is at best failing to make progress and at worst losing the war.
state.
What is even more disheartening is the consideration that the drug cartels are the ones with time on their
side. While the Mexican government has neither the resources nor the man power to continue its major
offensive without more substantial assistance from the United States, the drug cartels remain as powerful
It is distinctly possible to foresee a day when the Mexican

government, in spite of its efforts, is unable to control the drug
cartels, and Mexico essentially becomes a failed state. While there are a
as ever.
number of scholars and politicians, including Mexican President Calderon, who ardently argue that the
Mexican state will not fail, it is significant to note that the US government is already preparing itself for
that possibility. In fact, according to a study by the United States Joint Forces Command, which looks to
uncover future developments to ensure that the US military will not be caught off guard, Mexico is
considered a large and important [state that] bear[s] consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse.177
The study also states that the
[Mexican] government, its politicians, police

and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and
pressure by...drug cartels. That internal conflict... [is having] a major
impact on the stability of the Mexican state.178 The US government has already
begun to take specific actions to ensure that it is ready for that increasingly likely possibility of a failed
state. One example is that the Texas state government is spending millions of tax dollars to construct
refugee camps to prepare for the possibility that thousands flee Mexico if the state fails. Ted Galen
Carpenter, vice president for the defense and foreign policy center at the Cato Institute, argues that while
a complete collapse may be a relative long shot...its not out of the question....Its obviously prudent to
consider that possibility and not get blindsided should it happen.179 While it is true that the United States
preparing itself does not necessarily mean that the Mexican collapse is imminent, such preparation is a
If
the Mexican government were to fail, the United States would be
forced to take direct military action against the drug cartels. As the Joint
product of the US governments fear that such an event has a very real potential to actually occur.
Forces Command report notes, any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response
based on the serious implications for homeland security 175 Serrano, No longer next door. 176
Ruben Navarette Jr., Commentary: What Mexicos drug war means for U.S., CNNPolitics.com, February
27, 2009. 177 Bernd Debusmann, Among top U.S. fear: A failed Mexican state, The New York Times,
January 9, 2009. 178 Ibid 179 Joshua Rhett Miller, If Violence Escalates in Mexico, Texas Officials Plan to
That
response could prove to be nothing less than a full scale war
because, unlike in the current situation, the United States would not
have the luxury of having the Mexico state to fight on its behalf.
Essentially, if the United States does not provide more meaningful
aid now, then it may be forced to fight another war that would affect
its own citizenry directly. It is irrefutable that the amount of aid that is necessary is
be Ready, FoxNews.com, February 12, 2009. Agathai Quarterly Journal 27 alone.180

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substantially more than the four hundred million dollars worth that the United States has already
promised , through the Mrida Initiative. But all of those extra costs, all of which are economic, pale in
comparison to the amount of money and manpower that the United States would have to expend to win a
war against the drug cartels directly. Therefore, it would be prudent for the US to provide more aid now
rather than waiting and possibly being forced into a position where it has no choice but to fight a war on its
home front.

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War---Ext Uniqueness- Mexico on Brink

Mexico is on the brink of state collapse because of the
drug war.
Julia St, MA Politics in Vienna, 2012, Mexican Drug War is Also an American
Issue Policy Mic; http://www.policymic.com/articles/8584/mexican-drug-waris-also-an-american-issue
The brutal war over control of the drug trade in Mexican cities like Nuevo Laredo or Ciudad
Juarez leaves the state and the police powerless and paralyzed . Even if this civil
war between the mafia clans between themselves and their fight against the police seems far away, the delicate situation in Mexico could
America has relationships with its neighbor

narcotic operations. The importance of the U.S.-Mexico
relationship should not be underestimated: Mexico lies at the border to the United States
and therefore is already endangering citizens of the U.S. living in
North America. The Mexican problem already got a North American
problem. Officially the U.S. is trying to help Mexico in its war. But in its double moral is supporting the drug trade by economic
affect the United States economically and socially.
relating to
immigration, trade, and counter-
relationships. Mexico is the United States third-largest trading partner and 80 percent of Mexican legal exports are destined for U.S.
consumption. But the real problem is that Americans are also the Mexican drug cartels best customers because there is great demand for
drugs. And addicts dont care where drugs come from and what their consummation implies. 90 percent of cocaine enters the U.S. through
the Mexican border. Even more, these cartels also manufacture 80 percent of the crystal meth sold in America, 14 percent of the heroin and a
huge amount of marijuana. American dollars are essentially funding drugs wars which resulted in the death of over 34,000 people in the past
four years and are partly responsible for the situation. A measure of the U.S. to help Mexico would be to fight against the black market,
because the war on drugs is driven by the motive of profit and for this they need to sell drugs on the black market. To return the favor,
Mexico is the biggest buyer of weapons from America. The Obama Administration and the ATF
shipped guns into Mexico so that they could "track them." Some of these guns could have been used to kill U.S. agents. The U.S. Bureau of
Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is estimating that around 90 percent of those guns taken away at the border or after violent
conflicts, is produced in the U.S. So on the one hand the U.S. is fighting against the mafia clans but on the other side is selling them weapons
reason why
Mexico is dangerous for a part of America is the cartels capabilities .
to kill innocent people. It seems that people just have a conscience as long as there is no money involved. Another
The U.S: Defense Department has stated the two of Mexicos biggest drug cartels, Sinaloa and Gulf, have about 100,000 foot soldiers. This is
power of the drug cartels is

horrifying and it is constantly growing. If these forces of the mafia
are mobilized and unified against the state, the whole country could
sink into chaos and war. So, the Mexican war is spilling over the border into the U.S. The U.S. Department of Justice
just around 30.000 men less than the Mexican army possess. The
has reported that Mexican drug cartels have gang members in nearly 200 U.S. cities from Los Angeles to Baltimore and represent the largest
the
violence in Mexico is an extremely serious U.S. national security
issue as well. This is an issue of joint responsibility . If left
unchecked, the Mexican government itself may collapse and descend
into chaos. The U.S. should immediately work to curb demand, monitor weapon sales and pursue a comprehensive effort to combat
threat to both citizens and law enforcement agencies in this country. So it is okay to worry about Pakistan and Afghanistan, but
the ruthless drug lords from border protection policies to taking advantage of the abilities of the Central Intelligence Agency, as well as the
Treasury and State departments, among others. Over all, the drug wars in Mexico have already claimed nearly 40,000 lives since 2006 in a
massacre of be headings, kidnappings, torture and corruption. The violence that powerful Mexican cartels have brought into the border
regions of the United States is underestimated. But one have to remember that this is not a Mexican problem, it is also a North American
The battle between Mexican drug cartels threatens to it into a

failed nation-state and has spilled deeper into U.S. territory than
anyone has imagined.
problem.

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Anti-US Alliance---Ext- Alliance Will Form

An Anti-US Alliance can and is on the brink of formingreligion holds it together- Mexico is the key actor.
Fraser 10 (Ron, Trumpet Print Edition Columnist, April, Another Anti-U.S.
Alliance Is Born
http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/7072.28736.123.0/united-states/anotheranti-us-alliance-is-born, DOA 7/11/13, Keerthi)
The writing has been on the wall ever since certain populist leaders gained the upper hand in Latino
Long distracted by events in Europe, the Middle East and the

Far East, America has ignored the nations that press against its own
back door. Now they are clubbing together to form their own regional
alliance to replace the Organization of American States (OAS). The OAS has, to this point,
operated as the principle alliance of the Americas , incorporating Canada and
the United States. The new alliance is slated to deny Canada and the U.S. a
forum at regional summits south of the border. Washingtons reacted to the news with a ho-hum
politics.
attitude of seeming disinterest. Such a response to current developments in this strategic southern
As if to carry more force behind

this Latin slap across Americas face, it was the leader of Americas
closest neighbor, Mexicosource of its largest intake of migrant labor and thus of the flight of
billions of dollars to destinations south of the borderto deliver the blow. On February 23, at
Atlantic/Pacific region will prove disastrous. Integrating
the conclusion of a two-day summit in Cancun, Mexican President Felipe Calderon announced to
new bloc must as a

priority push for regional integration and promote the regional
agenda in global meetings. Mexico and Brazil are the driving forces behind the new bloc.
participants from 32 Latin American and the Caribbean nations that this
The name and structure of the new organization will be determined at a summit in Caracas, Venezuela,
next year. In an early sign of strengthening anti-Anglo-Saxon orientation in the region, this Latin bloc
threw its weight behind Argentinas renewed calls for Britain to hand over the Falkland Islands to that
southern Latino nation. In an early opinion on the new organization, China, already entrenched in the
region, said the development could help Beijing increase its cooperation with Caribbean and Latin
American countries. China Daily reported that Trade between China and Latin America reached $111.461
billion in the first three quarters of 2008, with Chinas direct non-financial investment in the region
involving trade, manufacturing, gas and oil exploration amounting to $960 million at the end of June in
2008 (February 22). Yet observers are cautious as to the new blocs prospects for success given the
disunity that presently divides more conservative leaders in countries such as Colombia, Chile and Peru
from the leftists leading Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba. Brazils President Lula da Silva is quite
often the balancing factor in any political feuds between these factions. Despite the show of bravado in
seeking to distance the region from Anglo-Saxon influence, Latin America has no real history of intraregional cohesion.
It is not unlike the unwieldy and fractious European

Union in this respect. Yet both these regions have one overarching potentially
binding force in common that could, amid crisis, rapidly unify their
respective masses: Roman Catholicism.

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*Chinese PEMEX Imports Impact

Mexican state collapse would put international oil exports
at risk.
The Oil Drum, March 8 2009, Mexico: A Collapse Update, website
dedicated to energy and its impact on society; published by the Institute for
the Study of Energy and Our Future; http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5172,
DOA 7/11/13, Keerthi
First, the increasing instability in Mexico will have a significant impact
on PEMEXs ability to maintain the necessary levels of investment to
minimize production declines. This creates a positive feedback-loop: faster declines
mean more financial difficulties, more instability, and less
investment, precipitating even faster declines. In 2009, PEMEX plans capital
expenditures of roughly $20 Billion. Traditionally, due to laws that prevent foreign ownership of many categories of natural
PEMEX has also been

pushing for a reform to the Mexican oil law that would allow foreign
companies an ownership stake in Mexican projects in exchange for
investment. Regardless of whether PEMEX pursues debt or equity financing, instability in
Mexicos property rights regime-certainly including the potential for governmental collapse-will
seriously hamper these efforts. Certainly the impact of disintegration in Mexico will have an
resources, PEMEX has relied on debt to finance capital expenditures. More recently,
impact north of the border. There is already a clear spill-over in criminal activity in border states. At some point, the
national security threat to the United States will bring calls for interventionbut are there any effective options? The
sprawling yet dense cities and mountainous rural terrain of Northern Mexico should give any military planners pause,
especially in light of recent American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. That didn't stop President Obama and Admiral
Mullen from meeting yesterday to discuss exactly these options. Some commentators have even suggested that Mexico,
The
potential impact on Mexican oil production seems clear. More superficially, the
not Iraq or Russia or Afghanistan, will be the defining national security challenge of the Obama administration.
situation in Mexico gives commentators of all stripes something to worry about. The spill-over of drug violence seems to
preoccupy most mainstream talking-heads, but a few commentators have traced these problems back to their rootsand
see a much more troubling threat. Specifically, the troubles in Mexico are an early sign of the failure of the Nation-State
model. Ive written about this extensively, and my intent here is not to re-hash my critique of the Nation-State system: if
The key is that the trends pulling

Mexico apart at the seams are ubiquitous-Mexico is merely facing this perfect storm
first. As the Nation-State dominos begin to tumble next--Pakistan perhaps, then Iraq, then
Russia, then Italy, then China, then Indonesia, etc.-the pressure on the rest will grow. And
many of the most threatened states are also the most critical to
global oil exports.
youre interested, heres an academic paper on the topic.
Specifically, Chinese oil exports from Mexico would get

cut offreduces Chinese oil imports and diversification.
Helena Powell, May 2 2013, CHINA/LATIN AMERICA: OIL DEAL BETWEEN
MEXICO AND CHINA COULD REDRESS TRADE IMBALANCE
http://www.pulsamerica.co.uk/2013/05/02/chinalatin-america-oil-dealbetween-mexico-and-china-could-redress-trade-imbalance/, DOA 7/13/13,
Keerthi
At the beginning of April Mexican oil company Pemex signed an
agreement with the second largest Chinese state-owned oil
enterprise Sinopec. The deal has initially been put in place for two years and aims to
strengthen trade relations between the two companies and encourage
increased exports of crude oil to China. The accord was signed by the directors of
both companies in the presence of Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto. The deal indicates a
rapprochement between Mexico and China, who have had a chequered relationship over the last couple of
years. Efforts to mend bilateral fences are being led by Pea Nieto, who visited China at the beginning of

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Pemex, Emilio Lozoya,

stated that the company would increase exports to China with
immediate effect, upping supplies by 30,000 barrels a day. In addition he explained that,
according to the agreement, exports could be increased to meet demand
within the two year timeframe of the deal. Increased oil exports will benefit both
parties. For China the agreement will diversify its import sources as it
overtakes the US as the worlds largest oil importer by 2014, according to
April to promote and develop Sino-Mexican relations. The chief executive of
a report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In 2012 only 9% of Chinas oil
Mexico, which is the

seventh largest oil producer in the world, currently exports roughly 80% of its oil to
the US. However US demand has been shrinking as a result of its shale boom and so China
provides an alternative export market. Yang Zhimin, a researcher at the Institute of
came from Latin America, whereas nearly 50% came from the Middle East.
Latin American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, points out that a further advantage of
the deal for Mexico will be a reduction in its trade deficit with China, currently at $51.2bn.
Lack of oil market diversification means China will cause

diversionary war and resource conflict over the South
China Sea and Senkaku Islands- highest probability and
miscalc is likely.
TSW 13 (Top Secret Writers, 2013, 2013 and What it Means for china- Part
Three, http://www.topsecretwriters.com/2013/01/2013-and-what-it-meansfor-china-part-three/, DOA 7/11/13, Keerthi)

There is a high probability that there will be conflict at sea. Todays
China is the largest economy without a substantial strategic
petroleum reserve and the most vulnerable to oil-market disruptions .
(1) China has problems at home and abroad . Chinas expanding economy is over
reliant on coal, making them the worlds second largest consumer of the resource. Unfortunately for
China does not possess a sufficient supply and has had to look
overseas. Doubly unfortunate for them is that while everyone else
was cozying up to the Middle East to score oil rights, the Chinese
were waging war amongst themselves, leaving them the odd man
out. Nowadays, they are struggling to make up for lost time . The fact is
them,
that China has on hand less than ten days of supply versus about 60 days for the United States and 100
days for Japan. (1) This has led to Chinas embracing some of the worlds most despotic regimes in order
to meet its needs. Not only has this given a black eye to the image of the Chinese communists but also has
meant risk to Chinas oil needs. Absent sufficient energy the Chinese economy will falter and crumble.
China would need the resources from four earths in order to raise its standard of living to equal that of the
Beijing is busy shoring up

energy where it can. Chinas Oil Needs Another factor working against China is that 80%
of all Chinese oil makes its way through the Strait of Malacca which
is a choke point. (1) This makes them and their oil supply vulnerable
to interference in case of war. The Chinese fear that one day the US could cut off this oil
US. While it seems impossible that China could achieve this goal,
supply should things go sour between the two countries. China would like to avoid having its oil cut off by
Part of Chinas strategy is to reduce foreign

oil dependence, enter the South China Sea and various islands. The
Senkaku Islands along with others that lie in the South China Sea
supposedly have rich oil stores. This finding has led China to assert spurious claims to
the US as the Japanese did pre-WW2.
most of the area and brought it in conflict with most of its neighbors. Relying on ancient maps and little
else, the Chinese claim that most of the oil rich seabed does now and has always belonged to the
In order to capitalize on this claim and abscond the

resources hiding beneath the seabed, the Chinese are building an
impressive naval fleet. This military buildup has alarmed Chinas
neighbors to such an extent that they are now calling for US
motherland-China.

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intervention/protection in the area. For its part, China is non-plussed by such action.
The truth is that the Chinese juggernaut needs oil and foreign interference be damned.
Chinas aggression in the region will spark more unrest and lead to a conflict this year. This bold
claim is based on the following: > Xi Jinping needs to appear strong
to the people, a small scale conflict could ensure his legacy > An armed conflict will take
pressure off internal problems such as stagnating economy and corruption > Armed
conflict will also showcase the military might of the communist party and forestall
revolution- the Chinese military reports to the communist party it has not link to the people nor the
Armed conflict will enable the communists to control

public opinion and redirect growing displeasure while leveraging anti-foreigner sentiments. What
government >
the Conflict Will Look Like Most people believe that China will not attack Japan vis-a-vis the
Senkakus/Diaoyus and risk losing face should they fail to succeed. In addition, some argue that by
attacking Japan, China runs the risk of alienating the US which could result in economic sanctions at a time
China can barely afford to do so. There is merit in this argument, but it fails to take into account the
human element and irrational nature of Chinas government. Chinas communist party is made up of a
proud group of mostly men who have been brought up resenting the West, its meddling, unequal treaties
and exploitation of China. These people would like nothing more than to restore China to the glory of its
past. Chinas military expansion is impressive. Aside from buying the best in Russian tech and stealing
advanced weapons from the West, the Chinese are also focusing on indigenous innovation. In order to
create influence in the new world order, the Chinese are investing heavily in their military capabilities. A
country does not manufacture scores of fighter jets and a naval armada to parade them before the world,
A conflict will most likely result from an

accident or miscommunication and then escalate from there . The Chinese
these armaments are meant to be used.
have recently sent vessels and aircraft around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyudos resulting in the Japanese
air force scrambling fighters. (2) Aside from this, the Japanese have also detained Chinese fishermen for
China is playing a dangerous game and pushing

the limits of patience and the luck of those around them. Look for a
encroaching on the islands. (3)
country to slip up, perhaps down a Chinese vessel and then a conflict to erupt. The conflict will probably be
short in duration and scale and result in derision from the West. If economic sanctions result the Chinese
will negotiate a peaceful solution. Should this conflict occur when anti-foreigner sentiments are running
Beijing
will pay less attention to international scrutiny as it worries about
internal dissent and revolution. It is highly probable that China will
engage a neighbor in armed conflict and there is a 50/50 chance it will be Japan.
high, then Beijing may be forced to engage the other nation with more fervor. If this is the case,
Conflict with Japan will mostly depend on the continuing Chinese aggression in the island chain, slow
economic growth and increase in anti-Japanese propaganda. While 2012 proved to be an incredible year
for China watchers, 2013 hold even more promise.
SCS war goes nuclear

Doble 11 [John, has an M.A. in International Affairs from American University and a B.A. in Political
Science and History from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Maritime Disputes a Likely Source of Future
Conflict http://www.policymic.com/articles/2279/maritime-disputes-a-likely-source-of-future-conflict
December]
the U.S. and China were involved in a nuclear exchange. The cause
of this conflict was a war brought about between China and the
Philippines after the Philippines seized several of the Spratly Islands to secure natural
resources and the sea lanes traversing the South China seas, both of
which it would use to advance itself in the global economy. China
refused to accept this action and attacked, and the U.S. was dragged
in after the president was pressured by Congress and American
allies to honor Americas mutual-defense agreement with the
Philippines. The result was disastrous. While this is a hypothetical
example, similar scenarios are becoming increasingly probable . Due to
increasing economic competition and climate change , a source of future conflict will be the contest
for control over the seas. The U.S. must adequately plan for future contingencies to avoid any surprises and to discern what it needs to
Yesterday,
do to prevent the worst-case scenario from occurring. Economic competition on the seas can be seen most clearly in terms of port construction. As it stands, over 90% of
all goods measured by weight or volume are transported by cargo ship, and port construction greatly increase a nations access to foreign markets and appeal as a
manufacturing center. Conversely, a nations investment in ports reduces the amount of goods traveling to other nations, thus damaging their economies. Unlike other

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This competition has already

created conflict in the Middle East. Bilateral efforts to improve relations between Iraq and Kuwait were scuttled earlier
forms of infrastructure investment, maritime infrastructure implicitly affects international security.
this year after Kuwait announced it was investing heavily in building a new port (the Mubarak Kabeer) only 20 kilometers away from a port Iraq was building (the Grand alFaw). Rapprochement swiftly ended over Iraqi fears of economic strangulation and calls for eternal brotherhood were replaced by curses. Nowadays, rumors abound that
Iraqi and Kuwaiti forces are infiltrating the border areas and Iraqi militants have already launched rockets from Iraq into Kuwait and threatened to kidnap the contractors
building the Mubarak Kabeer port. While threatening, this conflict is unlikely to explode as Iraq is in no shape to wage war and labors under a history of belligerence it is
trying to expunge. But what if a similar sequence of events occurred in Southeast/East Asia, where GDP is growing an average of 6%-7% a year(with China at 9.1%) and
states can operate more freely? The U.S. is investing more resources in the region at the exact moment when growing economic competition make conflict more likely.
climate change will soon have a massive impact on the worlds

coastal areas. Global sea levels are likely to rise between 80 to 200cm at the end of the century and
Secondly,
would submerge large tracts of land, displacing millions of people and wiping out urban and agricultural areas. Since they are built on the coast, this would also damage or
destroy many ports worldwide and jeopardize international commerce as we know it. These losses would be difficult to replace given the increased environmental
pressures Southeast/East Asian states would face as well as the spillover problems that would arise as low-lying countries sink into the sea and collapse. Competition over
the ports that survive will be fierce as whoever possesses them would likely dominate the sea lanes and international commerce for some time, leading to regional
dominance. Similarly, economic competition and climate change are going to going to cause havoc on the military industrial base supporting naval power in the region. It
is expensive to build a competitive navy, and many states will be unable to afford it if they need to constantly adapt to economic and environmental pressure. China and
India are already building up their naval forces and will likely be naval powers into the foreseeable future, but the U.S. will gain a lot of allies in the future struggling to get
the U.S. involved in every security dispute they have. Like WWI, someone may gamble incorrectly, and a conflict that starts as a minor incident may explode into
The U.S. consequently needs to utilize all facets of

American power, from military to diplomatic to foreign aid, to
confront these complex challenges and prevent them from
escalating out of control. We need to promote broader acceptance of free trade on the open seas as well as democratic governance
something much greater.
to limit the appeal of coercive power and the ability to use that power arbitrarily. We need a way to maintain the strength of our alliances without getting sucked into
conflicts we dont want, besides selling more weapons that only make war increasingly likely. Regardless of the exact policies, policymakers need to start thinking ahead
on how it will deal with the implications economic competition and climate change are going to have on maritime power. Intelligent observers of the Middle East knew for
years that the authoritarian status quo was unsustainable, yet no plans were made to respond to the collapse of those regimes and our response could have been better.
Current trends indicate that the current status quo in Southeast/East

Asia is equally untenable. Do we have a plan in place?

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Columbia Econ Impact

Venezuelan Instability triggers decline in Columbian
growth.
Reuters 13 (June 10, Venezuela instability a risk for Colombia growth finance minister, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/10/uk-colombiaeconomy-idUKBRE9590SS20130610, DOA 7/13/13, Keerthi)
(Reuters) - Colombia's economy faces its greatest risks this year from
instability in neighbouring Venezuela and the slump in commodity prices, the
country's finance minister said on Monday. Growth forecasts for the Andean
country are likely to be downgraded, with 4.4-4.5 percent a likely rate for 2013,
Mauricio Cardenas told Reuters editors and Reuters Television. Fture growth however could see an annual
boost of two percentage points, thanks to planned increases to infrastructure spending and if peace talks
with Marxist-led FARC rebels - due to restart on Tuesday - succeed in ending half a century of insurgency.
"We are going to make an announcement by the end of this week of between 4.4 and 4.5 percent, we are
revising our projections a little downward," he said of the growth forecast which is currently at 4.8
percent. The exact revision is dependent on economic data coming through this week. Falling commodity
The other worry is

Venezuela, which is facing shortages of basic goods from toilet
paper to wheat flour, raising fears of instability. "Developments in
Venezuela are very important to us - a stable growing economy in
Venezuela is very important from Colombia's perspective ," Cardenas said.
prices are an issue for Colombia, whose main exports include oil, coal and coffee.
He added Colombia has been talking with Venezuelan ministers about the possibility of offering food for oil,
"We are very dependent on commodity prices,

and whatever happens to future oil prices," Cardenas said. The government was
or food for future oil reserves.
likely to keep a Brent crude oil reference rate of around $100 (64.25 pounds) a barrel for budget purposes,
he said, not far below the current $104 level. The U.S. shale gas revolution has also cut the United States
as an export destination for Colombia's coal, he added.
Thats key to relations with the US, free trade, and

democracy.
Myska 13 (Julia, 6/6, Colombias growth reflects boom in hemisphere:
Biden, http://colombiareports.com/biden-on-colombia/, DOA 7/13/13, Keerthi)
Colombias economic growth reflects a larger economic boom
across South America, United States Vice-President Joe Biden said
Wednesday. The US vice-president wrote that the economic blossoming
he spotted on a recent trip to a cut-flower farm outside Colombias capital
Bogota, demonstrated advantages of the United States-Colombia
Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) that went into effect May 15, 2012.
What I saw on the flower farm was just one sign of the economic blossoming
in the year since a U.S. free-trade agreement with Colombia went into force,
wrote Biden in an editorial for the Wall Street Journal. According to the vicepresident, Colombias economic growth, reflects a larger economic
boom across the Western Hemisphere that offers many exciting
partnership opportunities for American business. The spread of
free trade and democracy has been a boon to the hemisphere, Biden
said.

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Strong relations are key to address every major issue--specifically, climate change.
Burns 12 (William J. Burns, Deputy Sec. of the Dept. of State, The
relationship between the United States and Colombia grows more committed,
more productive, and more important every day, Diplomatic News,
http://www.diplonews.com/feeds/free/1_August_2012_121.php, DOA 7/13/13,
Keerthi)
The relationship between the United States and Colombia grows
more committed, more productive, and more important every day. President
Obama recently affirmed that Colombia is one of the United States strongest partners and we commend
the remarkable progress Colombia has made over the last decade. Through the High-Level Partnership
we seek to deepen our bilateral cooperation to benefit citizens

of both our countries and strengthen the region as a whole. Today we discussed
Dialogue,
initiatives and affirmed joint objectives that will build a more prosperous and secure future for both of our
Colombia for its support of the Energy and Climate

Partnership of the Americas newest initiative, Connecting the Americas 2022. Reliable and
affordable electricity is critical for development and prosperity . The
countries. I applaud
United States and Colombia are already working with the Inter-American Development Bank and the World
Bank to support Connect 2022, including in the Andean region. Meanwhile, USAID's $18.6 million Clean
Energy Program, which we are pleased to announce today, moves us one step closer to ensuring access to
clean, secure, and sustainable energy resources for everyone in Colombia, including those who currently
have no access to electricity. Our
regional energy and climate change

cooperation will help deliver reliable, clean, and affordable energy to
the region. During today's dialogue on democracy, human rights, and
good governance, we re-affirmed our joint commitment to protect
human rights, civil society activists, and vulnerable populations . Our
conversation covered critical issues, including Colombia's framework for
coordinating efforts on citizen security, justice reform, and human
rights. Today, I am pleased to announce U.S. government grants totaling $50 million that will help
Colombia implement its Victims and Land Law, which provides reparations and land restitution to
thousands of victims of Colombia's internal conflict. In 2010, our countries signed a Science and
In today's science and technology working group, we

identified areas for collaboration to be explored at the next Joint Commission
Meeting on Science and Technology Cooperation. Both our governments are
committed to enhancing our joint cooperation on research and
development projects in health and agriculture, and earth,
atmosphere, and space cooperation that will improve our economies
and the lives of our citizens for years to come. Our discussion on
education and culture included bringing our countries closer together by increasing
educational exchanges and encouraging Spanish/English bilingualism in our populations.
Technology Agreement.
Increasing such academic cross-pollination is the goal of President Obama's 100,000 Strong in the
Americas initiative. Through initiatives like the AmCham-U.S. Embassy English Language Scholarships we
announced today, which will sponsor English language instruction for underprivileged Colombian youth, we
can harness the power of public-private partnership to help fulfill the tremendous potential of both our
nations youth.
Warming causes extinction.

Jeffery Mazo, 2012 PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA (Jeffrey Mazo,
Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security
and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in
London, , Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what
to do about it, pg. 122)
The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2.5-4.~C above pre-industrial levels,
depending on the scenario. Even in the best-case scenario, the low end of the likely range is 1.goC, and in the worst

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'business as usual' projections, which actual emissions have been matching, the range of likely warming runs from
3.1--7.1C. Even keeping emissions at constant 2000 levels (which have already been exceeded), global temperature
would still be expected to reach 1.2C (O'9""1.5C)above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century."
Without early and severe reductions in emissions, the effects of

climate change in the second half of the twenty-first century are
likely to be catastrophic for the stability and security of countries in the developing world - not to
mention the associated human tragedy. Climate change couldeven undermine the strength
and stability of emerging and advanced economies, beyond the knock-on
effects on security of widespread state failure and collapse in
developing countries.' And although they have been condemned as melodramatic and alarmist, many
informed observers believe that unmitigated climate change beyond the end of the century
could pose an existential threat to civilisation." What is certain is that there
is no precedent in human experience for such rapid change or
such climatic conditions, and even in the best case adaptation to these
extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes .
<Insert Free Trade and Democracy Impacts>

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AFF A2 LA Instability
The region is self-healing and resilienttheir evidence
ignores these structural factors.
Dabene 9 (Olivier, Prof. of Political Sci. at Paris Institute of Political Studies, PhD in Poli.Sci.,
Consistency despite instability, resilience despite crises Explaining Latin American regional integrations
oxymoron, International Studies Association, FLACSO rea de Relaciones Internacionales,
http://rrii.flacso.org.ar/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Art%C3%ADculo-Dabene.pdf, DOA 7/12/13,
Keerthi)
Latin American regional integration processes call attention for their

consistency despite chronic instability, and for their resilience
despite frequent crises. This article argues that such contradictory features
have not been properly explained and suggests a new approach
centered on the notion of politicization. The article starts by defining politicization in
terms of political intrumentalization of economic integration. It is then divided in two parts. Part I applies
the definition of politicization to historical sequences of Central American, Andean and Mercosurian
politicization is a good predictor of integrations

dynamism. Part II examines two variables affecting the level of politicization: collective
integration. It shows that
presidentialism and differentiated integration. Collective presidentialism provides for a minimum
the scope and the level of

integration. Variable geometry protects the integration processes from
terminal crises, yet it incites the member states to choose their level of commitment and
aggravates the collective action dilemmas. The article concludes that politicization, used as a
conceptual bridge, sheds new light on the different paths of Latin
American integration.
politicization, yet it entails a growing gap between
Agreements, structural flexibility and regional integration

check conflict.
Dabene 9 (Olivier, Prof. of Political Sci. at Paris Institute of Political Studies, PhD in Poli.Sci.,
Consistency despite instability, resilience despite crises Explaining Latin American regional integrations
oxymoron, International Studies Association, FLACSO rea de Relaciones Internacionales,
http://rrii.flacso.org.ar/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Art%C3%ADculo-Dabene.pdf, DOA 7/12/13,
Keerthi)
A new pattern of integration emerged during the 1990s. Historically, the regional groupings
of Latin America used to include countries that were all assuming the same level of commitment, agreed upon a unique
pace of integration and built a consensus around a single agenda of issue areas. This logic was progressively abandoned.
What emerged during the 1990s is a flexible type of integration allowing

differentiations amongst the groups, in terms of commitment, pace,
and agendas. Or to put in European terms, Latin America introduced 32 variable
geometry, multiple speed and integration a la carte. As previously mentioned, the
Andean countries were the precursors, introducing flexibility in 1987
(Quito Protocol) in the realm of policy harmonization and development plan coordination. Also in 1987, Costa
Rica decided not to sign the Treaty of the Central American Parliament, adopting an opting-out strategy that would inspire
America has a long tradition of vanguard

countries signing new treaties with the hope of convincing the others to join them. Guatemala and
other countries. It has to be noticed that Central
El Salvador, for instance, signed the San Ana Pact in 1946, supposedly paving the way for the political union of the region.
The project was ill born, as it became clear that Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Honduras did not have any intention to build a
The current brand of Latin American differentiated

integration was inaugurated in Central America with the 1993 Guatemala
Protocol. Its Article 1 stipulates that the Member States commit themselves to
reach the goal of economic union in a voluntary, gradual,
complementary and progressive way. Then, the same voluntary, gradual, complementary
political union.

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a CEPALreport noted that there was an amazing variety of 34 memberships

in Central American functional co-operation agencies and organs. illustrate this
and progressive methodology was referred to by the three new treaties signed in 1994-1995. a result, in 1996,
BID
point, the Central American Custom Unions had at that time only two members (Guatemala and Salvador) whereas the
Regional International Organization of Agriculture Sanitation (OIRSA) had nine (seven Central Americans plus Mexico and
Differentiated integration took a spectacular form when

with the United States a free trade agreement
(CAFTA). More recently, in 2008, the South American Union of Nations ( UNASUR) was born under
the auspices of pragmatism. The Treaty poses that the Union will be flexible and gradual in its 35
implementation, ensuring that each State honors its commitments according to its
realities. After years of unsuccessful negotiations for the convergence between MERCOSUR and CAN,
flexibility is a protection against paralysis and disappointments. Even
the Bolivarian Alliance of our Americas Peoples ( ALBA), although inspired by an ideal of solidarity, allows
integration a la carte. Since ALBA is deprived of an institutional arrangement, the different countries
are free to choose the different programs they want to get involved
with. Many countries for instance are members of the Caribbean oil initiative (Petrocaribe), anxious to get advantage
the Dominican Republic).
in 2003 the Central American countries negotiated separately
of Venezuelan oil at favorable financial conditions, without being associated to ALBA.

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A2 Indo Pak Nuclear War

China checks back regional instability.
Pakistan Today 13 (July 5, Pakistan, China vow to promote regional
peace, cooperation,
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/07/05/news/national/pakistan-chinavow-to-promote-regional-peace-cooperation/, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
Pakistan and China on Friday resolved to promote policies aimed at
advancing the cause of peace, cooperation and harmony and creating a win-win situation in the region. In a joint statement
issued after a meeting between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang, both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to
pursue people-centric policies that could mitigate poverty, promote social and economic development and diminish the roots of conflict.
During the meeting, Nawaz reaffirmed the strong commitment of his government to further promote and deepen the bilateral strategic
cooperation between China and Pakistan. The Chinese leaders appreciated Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for choosing China as his first
destination for his foreign visit. Nawaz underscored that the recent political transition in Pakistan was a historic development which would
"It will also improve governance and

lead to sound macro-economic management thus creating an
enabling environment for foreign investment in Pakistan," he observed. The two sides
create political cohesion, social stability, and internal growth.
reviewed with satisfaction the development of China-Pakistan relations and were of the view that this relationship had acquired growing
strategic significance in the emerging dynamics of 21st century. Both sides decided to continue deepening the Sino-Pakistan strategic
The two leaders appreciated that Asia was the engine

of global economic growth and more than forty percent of the global population resided in this vibrant and
dynamic region. Both countries decided to further deepen practical
cooperation in all sectors and strengthen coordination and
cooperation on international and regional issues. It was been agreed under the guiding
partnership in the new era.
principles of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good-Neighborly Relations between the People's Republic of China and the Islamic
Republic of Pakistan signed in April 2005 and on the basis of the existing close cooperation. In addition to the above, China also reaffirmed
that its relationship with Pakistan was always a matter of highest priority in its foreign policy, and it would continue to strengthen this strategic
China vowed
to continue extending its full support to Pakistan in the latter's
efforts to uphold its independence, sovereignty and territorial
integrity, while respecting the development path chosen by the
people according to its national priority, and support Pakistan in
maintaining social stability and economic development. Pakistan reiterated that
partnership. China appreciated Pakistan's long-term, staunch support on issues concerning China's core interests.
friendship with China was the cornerstone of its foreign policy, enjoying a national consensus and appreciated the support and assistance of
the Chinese government and people for Pakistan's sovereignty and socio-economic development. "Pakistan will continue to adhere to its oneChina policy, oppose Taiwan and Tibet's independence and support China's efforts in combating the "Three Evils" of extremism, terrorism and
separatism. We regard ETIM as our common threat and stand united in combating this menace," the Pakistani prime minister resolved. The
two sides believed that maintaining the tradition of frequent exchange of visits and meetings between their leadership and fully leveraging
arrangements such as annual meetings between their leaders, is of great importance in advancing bilateral relations. They also agreed to
enhance the role of mechanisms such as foreign ministers' dialogue, strategic dialogue and other consultative mechanisms between the
relevant ministries and departments, so as to strengthen the strategic communication and coordination between the two countries. The two
countries reaffirmed that expanding bilateral economic relations was a matter of high priority and agreed that China was committed to
realising the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation by accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development and earnestly
Meanwhile, Pakistan expressed

commitment to reviving the national economy and realizing its
"Asian Tiger dream". The development strategies of the two
countries, therefore, coincided with each other. Both sides decided to further strengthen
pursuing the strategy to develop its western region.
the ties of pragmatic cooperation between them, with a view to translating their high-level political relationship into wider economic dividends.
To this end, the two sides will strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, energy, agriculture, mining, food security, environment, finance
and other fields. Both Pakistan and China agreed to fully implement the Additional Agreement to Extend the Five Year Development
Programme on China - Pakistan Trade and Economic Cooperation and the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement; fast track work on the projects
identified under the Five Year Development Programme; hold the second phase of tax-reduction negotiations of China-Pakistan Free Trade
It was also
resolved that enhancing connectivity between China and Pakistan is
of great importance to expanding economic and trade cooperation,
promoting economic integration, and fostering economic
development of the two countries.
Agreement on speedy basis; further liberalise trade, and advance economic integration between them.

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Actors will be rational, deterrence solves, and no new

Cold War in South Asia.
Stimon Center 13 (nonprofit, nonpartisan institution devoted to enhancing international
peace and security , Stimson's programming on South Asia is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of
New York, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and by the National Nuclear Security
Administration, cites Rob Williams- National Intelligence Officer for South Asia, Missiles In South Asia:
Deterrence Stability On The Subcontinent, http://www.stimson.org/events/missiles-in-south-asiadeterrence-stability-on-the-subcontinent/, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
To conclude, Williams emphasized the dynamism of the nuclear

competition in southern Asia and the complex interactions involving
nuclear, conventional, and sub-conventional capabilities on the subcontinent.
He cautioned against viewing the India-Pakistan relationship as a
dyad comparable to the U.S.-Soviet relationship during the Cold War.
Instead, security equations in southern Asia involve at least four
countries - including the United States - and are governed by
complex feedback loops that must be considered in efforts to address
regional instabilities. Krepon closed the meeting by thanking our two
speakers, and by noting two disquieting doctrinal features of the nuclear
competition of the subcontinent. One appears to be the growing
expectation that, as nuclear capabilities grow, they can compel
behavior. He noted that, while nuclear weapons have demonstrated
utility for deterrence, their track record for compellence is weak. A
second noteworthy doctrinal echo from the Cold War is India's
reliance on massive retaliation to deter any crossing of the nuclear
threshold. Political leaders do not usually feel comfortable with the
doctrine of massive retaliation, which has tended to be a transitory
stage en route to more flexible response options.

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A2 Clean Tech
Leadership/Modeling
TONS of alternative causes to clean tech leadership.
NREL 9 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, under the DOE,
Strengthening U.S. Leadership of International Clean Energy Cooperation,

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/44261.pdf, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
Current Limitations and Future Opportunities Identified by Stakeholders More than 40 stakeholders from the
domestic and international clean energy industry and finance community, research organizations, and
NGOs have participated in this effort and have provided a wealth of
feedback on current limitations and future opportunities for U.S.
international clean energy programs. This stakeholder feedback is
summarized below and presented in more detail in Appendix B. Resources U.S.
government investments in international clean energy cooperation
are at much lower levels and not coordinated across agencies in the
manner needed to accelerate market transformation worldwide. For example, recent annual international appropriations
(minus earmarks) for DOEs Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy have ranged from $0-5 million/yr. with no
international appropriations provided in FY08; this is compared with more than $150 billion in global private investment in
clean energy in 2007. The U.S. government reports (OECD 2007) spending more than $1 billion a year in energy-related
foreign assistance (largely dominated by the Department of Defense and Agency for International Development
programs), with these resources spread across a large number of countries and not guided by a government-wide clean
Coordinated Goals and Plans The United States does

not have well-defined, government-wide international clean energy
goals and priorities or a cohesive implementation plan across
agencies, with the private sector, and with international partners.
energy strategy.
Stakeholders emphasized the need to consolidate and better coordinate U.S. international clean energy programs across
agencies to ensure that they all support a few well-defined goals and are implemented in an integrated manner; and so
Leadership U.S.
leadership in key forums, such as the international climate change
negotiations, must be more effective. Technology Cooperation
The U.S. government could significantly strengthen its technology
research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3)
cooperation with other countries and international institutions to
leverage resources and accelerate progress toward common research and deployment goals
Investment Facilitation U.S. clean energy investment-facilitation
programs are not fully addressing the private-sector need for risk
mitigation and are not well-coordinated or streamlined (with exceptions such as EXIM programs)
Developing Country Market Reform The U.S. government is wellpositioned to play a bigger role in teaming with major developing
countries on assessments, policy-design support, technology standards, and workforce development
needed for clean energy market transformation and private investment. Domestic Action The
United States must pursue domestic policies and measures in tandem with these
that business and other partners can have one primary focal point for collaboration. 7
international efforts to maintain a thriving clean energy industry and technology leadership that provides the foundation
for international cooperation.

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A2 Japan Relations
Alt CausesA) Futenma Base
Cooper et al. 13 (Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, Mark
E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper, Specialist in
International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart, Analyst in Asian Affairs,
Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress, FAS;
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33436.pdf, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
A prominent controversy over the relocation of a Marine Corps base
in Okinawa has vexed the alliance for years. While a comprehensive resolution remains
elusive, the two governments have adjusted the plan in a way that
removes the issue from the center of the security relationship . The 2006
agreement between the U.S. and Japanese governments to relocate the Futenma Marine Corps Air Station from its current
location in crowded Ginowan City to Camp Schwab, in a less congested part of the island, was envisioned as the
the United States

would redeploy 8,000 marines and their dependents from Okinawa
to Guam in exchange for permitting construction of a new Marine
Corps facility at Camp Schwab, located offshore of the Henoko area
of Nago City. Problematic from the start, the base relocation developed into a major point of contention
centerpiece of a planned realignment of U.S. forces in Japan.29 Under this agreement,
between Tokyo and Washington after Yukio Hatoyama became prime minister in 2009; Hatoyama had promised
Okinawans during his election campaign that he would oppose the relocation. Although Hatoyama and his DPJ successors
local opposition and management missteps by

Tokyo appeared to render the plan unworkable. To remove impediments to the
realignment of U.S. forces, the United States and Japan changed their agreement
in April 2012 by de-linking the transfer of marines off Okinawa
with progress on the new base in Henoko. In order to ease the burden on Okinawan
all eventually endorsed the plan,
residents, about 9,000 marines and their dependents would be transferred to locations outside of Japan: to Guam, Hawaii,
on a rotational basis to Australia, and perhaps elsewhere. Alliance officials described the move as in line with their goal of
making U.S. force posture in Asia more geographically distributed, operationally resilient, and politically sustainable.30
The official timeline for the reversion of U.S. base territory back to Japanese control indicates that substantial amounts of
After the announcement,

Senators Carl Levin, John McCain, and Jim Webb, who had together criticized the realignment
plan as unrealistic, unworkable, and unaffordable,31 wrote in a letter to Defense
Secretary Leon Panetta, No new basing proposal can be considered final until it
has the support of Congress.32 Concern about the ballooning costs of the Guam construction and
land will not be turned over to local authorities until the mid-2020s.
uncertainty about the future U.S. force posture in the Asia-Pacific region drove Congress to zero out the Administrations
request for related military construction funding in the FY2012 and FY2013 National Defense Authorization Acts, P.L. 11281 and P.L. 112-239. The acts prohibit authorized funds, as well as funds provided by the Japanese government for military
construction, from being obligated to implement the planned realignment of Marine Corps forces from Okinawa to Guam
until certain justifications and assessments are provided. In April 2013, the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC)
issued a report that examined U.S. costs associated with the American military presence overseas, including in Japan.33
The report found that relocation of the Futenma base remained

unlikely and that it would cost far more and take longer than the
Department of Defense currently projects. Significant obstacles
remain in Japan as well. Public opposition has hardened considerably in Okinawa,
with all the major political figures involved in the new base construction process declaring opposition to the plan. The
deployment of the MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft to the Futenma base in summer 2012 heightened safety concerns of
nearby residents, and a string of crimes committed by U.S. servicemembers in late 2012 further inflamed local
resentments. The grievances that the Okinawans have harbored for decades seem unlikely to fade, driven by the
current controversy reflects a

fundamental tension in the relationship between Okinawa and the
presence of foreign troops on a crowded urban landscape. The

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central government in Tokyo: while the entire country reaps the

benefits of the U.S. security guarantee, Okinawans bear a disproportionate burden. The April
2012 announcement that the U.S. and Japanese governments will undertake long-deferred repairs on Futenma raised
suspicions that the base will remain indefinitely, and the 2013 SASC report expressed concerns that Japans contribution
was in question.34
B) Japanese constitutional constraints.

Cooper et al. 13 (Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs, Mark
E. Manyin, Specialist in Asian Affairs, William H. Cooper, Specialist in
International Trade and Finance, Ian E. Rinehart, Analyst in Asian Affairs,
Japan-U.S. Relations: Issues for Congress, FAS;
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33436.pdf, Accessed 8/3/13, Keerthi)
Several legal factors restrict Japans ability to cooperate more
robustly with the United States. The most prominent and
fundamental restriction is Article 9 of the Japanese constitution , drafted
by American officials during the post-war occupation, that outlaws war as a sovereign
right of Japan and prohibits the right of belligerency . It stipulates that
land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential will never be maintained. However, Japan
has interpreted this clause to mean that it can maintain a military
for national defense purposes and, since 1991, has allowed the SDF to
participate in non-combat roles overseas in a number of U.N. peacekeeping missions
and in the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. The principle of collective self-defense is
also considered an obstacle to close defense cooperation. The term
comes from Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which provides that
member nations may exercise the rights of both individual and collective self-defense if an armed attack
occurs. The Japanese government maintains that Japan has the sovereign right to engage in collective selfdefense, but a 1960 decision by the Cabinet Legislation Bureau interpreted the constitution to forbid
collective actions because they would exceed the minimum necessary use of force to defend Japan itself.
Participation in non-combat logistical operations and rear area support of other nations, however, has been
Abe has repeatedly

proposed that this restriction be reconsidered, a move that has been
welcomed by U.S. officials in the past. During the deployment of Japanese forces to
Iraq, the interpretation prevented the SDF from defending other nations troops. Some Japanese
critics have charged that Japanese Aegis destroyers should not use
their radar in the vicinity of American warships, as they would not be allowed to
considered outside the realm of collective self- defense. Prime Minister
respond to an incoming attack on those vessels. As the United States and Japan increasingly integrate
missile defense operation, the ban on collective self-defense also raises questions about how Japanese
Under the
current interpretation, Japanese forces could not respond if the
United States were attacked.
commanders will gauge whether American forces or Japan itself is being targeted.

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A2 Soft/Smart Power

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1NC
Soft/Smart Power empirically fails, is all hype, and doesnt
solve any world issues, Nye is wrong, and turn- soft power
hurts influence and causes terrorism.
Lacey 4/22/13, Soft Power, Smart Power, Jim Lacey- National Review
correspondent, http://www.nationalreview.com/article/346131/soft-powersmart-power, Accessed 8.4.13, Keerthi)
A few years back, a number of policymakers, jumping on a popular academic
trend given its greatest voice by Joseph Nye, began espousing a theory of
soft power. In this new and shiny vision, America could wield its greatest global
influence through the power of its example. The world would just look at how good
we were, and how great it was to be an American, and clamor to follow us. Somehow these
visionaries neglected to notice that Europes almost total unilateral
disarmament had failed to translate into influence on the global stage. Rather,
it had done the opposite. In a remarkably short time, European opinions on any matter of
consequence ceased to matter. Worse, a large segment of the world took a
good look at the American example and was repelled. Some of these
people launched the 9/11 attack. At some point, it became clear that
those holding a world vision that included returning to eighthcentury barbarism were not finding our example attractive. Our
deep-thinking strategists realized they needed a new answer. What
they came up with was even more seductive than soft power. In the
future, America would prosper through the employment of smart
power. One wonders if our policymakers had been willfully
employing dumb power for the previous two centuries. In any
case, smart-power advocates claimed that a new policy nirvana was
attainable, if only we could find the right mix of soft and hard
power. Well, soft power and smart power were fascinating intellectual exercises that led
nowhere. Iran is still building nuclear weapons, North Korea is
threatening to nuke U.S. cities, and China is becoming militarily more
aggressive. It turns out that power is what it has always been the ability
to influence and control others and deploying it requires, as it always has, hard
instruments. Without superior military power and the economic strength
that underpins it, the U.S. would have no more ability to influence
global events than Costa Rica.
Single foreign policy actions dont define entire US

soft/smart power.

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2NC Soft Power Fails

Soft power fails- Obama doesnt know how to use it.
Glassman 13 (James, Glassman, former under secretary of state for public
diplomacy and public affairs, is executive director of the George W. Bush
Institute, President Obamas Surprisingly Ineffective Use of Soft Power,
http://politic365.com/2013/05/12/president-obamas-surprisingly-ineffectiveuse-of-soft-power/, Accessed 8/4/13, Keerthi)
In an article in The New Yorker two years ago, reporter Ryan Lizza famously quoted an anonymous adviser to President Obama characterizing
leading from behind . Thats not a bad way to

describe the presidents foreign policy in general. Obama takes great
pains not to lead too conspicuously, not to step on toes, not to
offend allies or enemies. Libya, in fact, was the ideal: Let the Europeans and the
Arabs take the lead, and well quietly help out. Or not. Lizza wrote, Its a
different definition of leadership than America is known for, and it comes from
the presidents strategy in Libya as
two unspoken beliefs: that the relative power of the U.S. is declining, as rivals like China rise, and that the U.S. is reviled in many parts of the
Pursuing our interests and spreading our ideals thus requires

stealth and modesty as well as military strength. He quoted Benjamin Rhodes, one of
world.
the presidents deputy national security advisers. If you were to boil it all down to a bumper sticker, its Wind down these two wars,
reestablish American standing and leadership in the world, and focus on a broader set of priorities, from Asia and the global economy to a
So hows it working for you? In my view, not particularly well.

Look at the last 100 days. The revolt against the Syrian regime has become
nuclear-nonproliferation regime.
one of the most brutal repressions in decades. The situation has grown worse, with the almost certain use of chemical weapons crossing what
North Korea, developing nuclear weapons
the president drew as a red line.

and the capacity to
deliver them over long distances, has denigrated America and threatened to attack us. And, speaking of nukes and the goal of nuclear
Iran remains undeterred as well, with its own red line in doubt. Meanwhile, the
United States suffered its first terrorist bombing since 9/11, with three killed
and more than 200 wounded an event that occurred eight months after the attack on our
consulate in Benghazi, Libya, where a U.S. ambassador was killed for the first time in 33 years. The
problem of America being reviled in many parts of the world is
vastly overblown, but it has surely not been remedied. Europeans and the Japanese like us more, but they were pretty fond
nonproliferation
of us to start with. Muslims, according to the Pew Research Center, like us less. In Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon, the average
Foreign policy is not easy. The

challenges are unpredictable, which is why the best policy rests on a
solid foundation of principle and a clear strategy. The George W. Bush administrations
favorability rating for the United States in 2012 was 21 percent; in 2008, it was 26 percent.
national security strategy was simple: keep America safe and promote freedom. These goals are linked; free nations rarely threaten the United
States or their own neighbors. Achieving both these goals requires leadership a consistency that reassures our allies and deters our
The Obama administration suffered from a common foreign

policy disease: a fierce aversion to whatever policies the previous
administration adopted. Its strategy has been reactive and timid: pull out, repair alleged damage, lead from behind.
enemies.
Thus, the war of ideas that Bush waged against terrorist ideologies was jettisoned, as was stand-up support for democratic movements and
freedom advocates. It is hard to see the evidence that abandoning these approaches has made the United States more secure or the world
less volatile. The good news is that, also within the last 100 days, the United States is starting to lead in one important foreign policy sphere:
trade. The administration, in a 180-degree shift, has gotten serious about a free-trade pact with Europe and a separate Pacific agreement that
now includes Japan. If it is successful, these trade agreements, affecting countries representing three-fifths of the worlds economic output,
Perhaps the greatest disappointment is the

presidents surprising reluctance to use the tools, not of hard power but of soft
especially the aggressive deployment of social media to win foreign policy ends, such
could be Obamas greatest legacy.
as persuading Iranians to oppose their regimes attempts to develop nuclear weapons or supporting democratic elements in Egypt and other
nations of the Arab spring. The president knows these tools well and deployed them successfully in his domestic political campaigns. There, at
least, he has not been reluctant to lead from the front.

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2NC Smart Power Fails

NSA scandal killed Smart Power.
Morrissey 13 (Ed, Smart power: US allies stunned at scope of NSA
surveillance, Hot Air News, http://hotair.com/archives/2013/06/11/smartpower-us-allies-stunned-at-scope-of-nsa-surveillance/, Accessed 8/5/13,
Keerthi)
Smart power: US allies stunned at scope of NSA surveillance Who
can blame them? As the scope of the NSA surveillance programs became a
little clearer since their exposure last week, the ostensible targets
abroad turned out to be a little unhappy with Uncle Big Brother , too.
German chancellor Angela Merkel will lead the EU on its opposition to NSA snooping when Barack Obama
European leaders, describing themselves as stunned by revelations

moved Monday to
demand more information from the U.S. government and said they would
discuss ways to bolster their already stringent privacy laws. The discontent from Europe
pointed to the breadth of fallout from the affair and to the potential
for fresh strains between the United States and allies wary of
American intrusiveness. German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed to raise the issue when
travels to Berlin next week:
of an extensive U.S. surveillance program that included their citizens,
she meets in Berlin with President Obama next week, a spokesman said, and other German officials said
they were concerned by the apparent monitoring of their citizens. Top officials of the 27-nation European
Union also said they would press the U.S. government on the matter at bilateral meetings this week. The
PRISM
surveillance program, portions of which were described in recent days by The Washington Post
makes clear that U.S. intelligence services

now have the power to vacuum up data about telecommunications
traffic across the world. An apparent snapshot from an NSA Boundless Informant database
and the Guardian newspaper in Britain,
published on the Guardians Web site indicated that in March 2013, foreign intelligence gathering was
primarily focused on the Middle East. For that month, more pieces of intelligence were gathered in
Germany than anywhere else in Europe. As the Washington Posts Michael Birnbaum points out, Germans
have only had a generation as a whole to be free of the kind of snooping that took place for almost 70
continuous years in East Germany. After the Gestapo and the Stasi, Germans arent keen on government
probing into their private affairs, and theyre even less keen on foreigners doing the snooping. It doesnt
help when the President of the United States defends the program at home by saying, Hey, were not
The EU has already been

hostile to American dominance in the Internet and computer
industry, taking Microsoft, Apple, and Google to court on anti-trust
complaints over the last several years. Not coincidentally, these are also the major
snooping on you were snooping on everyone else in the world!
partners of the NSA on PRISM and other collection programs. Merkel and other leaders are likely to get a
lot more hostile to operations of American Internet providers in Europe, and might start thinking about
subsidizing serious competitors as a defensive measure to keep NSA from snooping on their data.
Nevertheless, the White House says that the NSA programs are here to stay: The Obama administration
considered whether to charge a government contractor with leaking classified surveillance secrets while it
defended the broad U.S. spy program that it says keeps America safe from terrorists. A senior U.S.
intelligence official on Monday said there were no plans to scrap the programs that, despite the backlash,
continue to receive widespread if cautious support within Congress. The official spoke on condition of
anonymity to discuss the sensitive security issue.

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2NC Nye Indict

Nyes theory is outdated and not relevant to the status
quo.
Zalman 12 (Amy, Department of Defense Information Integration Chair at
the National War College, founder of Strategic Narrative, Ph.D. in Middle

Eastern Studies from New York University, July 17, How Power Really Works
in the 21st Century: Beyond Soft, Hard & Smart,
http://www.theglobalist.com/AuthorBiography.aspx?AuthorId=1336, Accessed
8/5/13, Keerthi)
This means we must move beyond the ideas of Joseph Nye , the former dean of the
John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (as scholars such as Yamei Shen have already begun to do.) N ye
updated lexicon of political theorists when he introduced the
concept of "soft power" in the early 1990s. The term, and the concept it contained, upset the
dominant view of political power as control over others that was achieved chiefly through threat of armed force or economic arm-twisting.
, Nye
reinvigorated an idea that had always been latent in descriptions of
power. That idea was the recognition that symbols, emotions and perceptions are instrumental in people's behavior. When channeled
Seeking to soothe post-Cold War fears that the United States was losing the capacity to do either very well
through these means, power transforms into desire the desire of others, as Nye put it, "to want what you want." Understanding this aspect
of power made it that much easier for a nation at the top table of international politics to obtain the outcomes it desired. So,
irrespective of whether the United States might be losing its "hard

power" yin in the aftermath of the Cold War, we were chock full of "soft power" yang. If hard
power is the ability to kick other countries in the groin and threaten to take their wallets, soft power with its siren call of universal values,
Nye's
framework thrilled some, who saw in it an idealistic vision of a nonviolent future.
It continues to outrage those who hear it as a summons to trim U.S.
military potential, while offending others with its suggestion that
the United States could be open to a softer, more feminine face of
power.
irresistibly democratic institutions and the most comely forms of capitalism is meant to seduce almost subconsciously.

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A2 Iran Prolif NEW CARDS

No impact:
Their evidence is all old new president Rouhani rejects
nuclear development.
Botelho 9/19/13 (CNN Staff, President Rouhani says Iran won't develop
nuclear weapons, http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/world/meast/iranpresident-nuclear/, Keerthi, Acc 12/8/13)

(CNN) -- Iranian President Hassan Rouhani vowed Wednesday that his
country will never develop nuclear weapons , telling NBC News that
he is open to diplomatically resolving issues surrounding his
country's controversial nuclear program. "We have never pursued or
sought a nuclear bomb and we are not going to do so," Rouhani said.
Later, he added, " We have time and again said that, under no
circumstances, would we seek any weapons of mass destruction,
including nuclear weapons. Nor will we ever ."
Recent Iran deal prevents proliferation this postdates.

Gwerrtzman 11/25/13 (Bernard Gwertzman, Consultant at Council on
Foreign Relations, interviewing David Albright, president at the Institute for

Science and International Security, Iran Deal: Good Start on Long Road,
http://www.cfr.org/iran/iran-deal-good-start-long-road/p31946, Keerthi, Acc
12/8/13)
A longtime expert on Iranian nuclear development, David Albright, says the six-month agreement reached in
Geneva accomplishes a "tremendous amount" but the sides still face steep challenges in
settling long-term issues. Most notable, he said, were Iran's agreement to eliminate uranium enriched to 20 percent and not to stockpile new
centrifuges during the interim period. But tough future sticking points include how many centrifuges Iran should be permitted to retainthe
United States might want to limit Iran to five thousand and Iran might want twice that numberand how long the next stage agreement
should last. Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif hugs French foreign minister Laurent Fabius after reaching a breakthrough
agreement reached by
Iran and the P5+1 nations? The deal in the short run accomplishes a tremendous amount. In the long run, a lot of
work has to be done and a lot of issues have to be settled. In this first six-month period, the deal reduces the risk
posed by Iran's nuclear program and in that sense, it accomplishes
the goal of buying time to get down to the negotiations of the more
substantive, harder issues. So it's balanced. The deal has great
potential and it removes some of the imminent risks posed by the
Iranian nuclear program, at least for six months. All right, enumerate the positive points
first. One of the most positive aspects of this is it tries to eliminate the most dangerous stock of
enriched uranium and that's the stock of 20 percentenriched uranium in the hexafluoride form that's used in the gas
centrifuges. That stock has been increasing over the last couple of years and
nuclear deal in Geneva (Denis Balibouse/Courtesy Reuters). What is your analysis of the
has continued to increase until today. That would allow Iran, if it decided to break out, to further enrich it up to [90 percentenriched]
weapons-grade uranium more quickly than if they had to start with 3.5 percent enriched uranium or natural uranium. That stock under this
deal will be eliminated through half being diluted and half being converted into oxide form. If it's in oxide form, it has to be reconverted back
into hexafluoride before it can be used in centrifuges. That stock of 20 percent oxide could not be used in a breakout scenario. So that's the
Iran agreed it
would not stockpile centrifuges during the six-month period. It's agreed to limit its manufacturing of
most significant thing. Another one that's very important, and this was a surprise to many people, is that
centrifuges to replacing broken ones in the existing enriching centrifuges at Natanz and some at Fordow. And moreover, the International
Atomic Energy Agency will be able to monitor two key parts of the centrifuge-manufacturing complex to make sure that centrifuges aren't

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being made. One is called the rotor, the spinning part of the centrifuge, a very sensitive part. They'll be able to monitor about five locations in
The IAEA will also monitor where centrifuges

are assembled in Fordow and Natanz. And the IAEA will be looking there to make sure centrifuges are not assembled. That's a
Iran where these rotors are actually made.
significant agreement that has escaped much public notice. They're also going to freeze essential construction at the heavy water plutoniumproducing reactor at Arak. This reactor can give another path to nuclear weapons. Iran has agreed that it will not install any more components
That was a very important set of

conditions to get because Israel had threatened to bomb the reactor. And this would at least allow the situation to be more or less
into the reactor and it will not make fuel for the reactor.
frozen for six months and buy some time. And there's a whole other set of conditions that aim to provide transparency of the Iranian nuclear
program. Some of those conditions that were accepted by Iran were taken literally from what is called the "Additional Protocol," which
It gets to something that's also needed for

transparency, which is that the IAEA would also know what's going
on in each building at each nuclear site. Right now they don't have
that.
everyone wants Iran to ratify and implement.
A) Irans a rational actor and prolif would be containable.

Nader 13 (Alireza, M.A. in international affairs, The George Washington
University; B.A. in political science, University of California, Santa Barbara,

5/29, Think Again: A Nuclear Iran, http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/05/thinkagain-a-nuclear-iran.html, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
Iran is an irrational actor
Wrong . It's as clear as day that the Islamic Republic pursues goals in the Middle East that put it on a
collision course with the United States. Iran is opposed to Israel as a Jewish state, for instance, and
competes for regional influence with the conservative Gulf Arab
monarchies. But that doesn't mean it is irrational: On the contrary, its top
leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is deliberative and
calculating. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's antics and often wild rhetoric
shouldn't obscure the fact that the Islamic Republic is interested in its
own survival above all else. When contemplating the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, we should all
be grateful that notions of martyrdom and apocalyptic beliefs don't have a
significant pull on Iranian decision-making. Iran's possible pursuit of
nuclear weapons capability is motivated by deterrence, not some
messianic effort to bring about the end times. The Islamic Republic
has a relatively weak conventional military that is no match for U.S.
and most Western forces most of its regular naval and ground forces operate equipment
from the 1960s and 1970s. It has tried to make up for this through a doctrine of asymmetry: It has
supported terrorist and insurgent groups across the Middle East and created a guerrilla navy, which at
best might be able to swarm U.S. ships and interrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf. This is all meant to
prevent U.S.-driven regime change. Nukes could provide the ultimate deterrent for an insecure regime. And
Iran has a lot to be insecure about: It is a Shia and Persian-majority theocracy surrounded by hostile Sunni
Arabs, which has recently watched the United States overrun unfriendly regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq
with relative ease. The regime perceives both conflicts as having damaged U.S. credibility and power
but knows this is no guarantee it can protect itself in a future conflict against the vastly superior American
military without a nuclear bomb. As
dangerous as it is, Iran's possible pursuit of

nuclear weapons makes logical sense. And it isn't an effort that is
unique to the Islamic Republic: Any Iranian political system, whether
imperial, theocratic, or democratic, would at least consider a nuclear
weapons capability. Although a nuclear-armed Iran would be a
dangerous development, a closer look demonstrates that it could
well be a containable challenge for the United States and its allies.
B) No strikes against Israel- and turn- Iranian nukes would

prevent a miscalculated nuclear war.

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Iran would nuke Israel No way. Khamenei may describe Israel as a cancer that
must be removed, but he doesn't wake up every morning thinking of
destroying Israel. The Islamic Republic's hatred for Israel is real, but its policies toward
Israel are more pragmatic than often assumed. Iran's leadership sees Israel
through the prism of the shah's cozy, under-the-table relations with Tel Aviv. While the shah viewed an
the Islamic Republic

sees Israel as an outpost of Western colonialism in the region . The
Iranian-Israeli alliance as a tool to contain communism and pan-Arabism,
revolutionary regime sees the liberation of Muslims, especially Palestinians, as one of its core foreign-
But beyond ideology, opposition to Israel offers the

Islamic Republic several practical benefits. It notably alleviates
Iran's own regional isolation in the Middle East, providing a unifying goal that
appeals to Sunni Arabs and distracts from Iran's espousal of Shia clerical rule. Iran is likely to
oppose Israel as long as its revolutionary system exists, providing military
policy objectives.
and financial support to terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. But the Iranian regime is not
Tehran has hesitated to attack Israel

with its own missiles, as it fears the Israeli reaction. Any Iranian
nuclear attack against Israel would certainly mean massive Israeli
and U.S. retaliation, and the regime's destruction. From Khamenei's
point of view, Israel's existence is a much better alternative than a
nuclear war resulting in mutual destruction. The regime can blame Israel for all
fanatical in its perceptions of Israel. For example,
the region's woes, taking some pressure off itself. Hence, the assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps commanders in Syria is not due to Tehran's opposition to Sunni insurgents, but ascribed by the
This, however, does not eliminate the possibility of an

inadvertent or accidental nuclear exchange between Israel and a nuclear-armed
Iran, especially given the lack of communication between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
Iran's development of nukes would, at the very least, necessitate a clearer
line of communication between Tehran and Washington.
regime to Zionist plots.
C) No regional lash-out or Saudi encounter, and economics

checks.
Nuclear weapons would embolden Iran Not quite. A common fear of a nuclear Iran is not
that it would use nukes directly against rivals such as Saudi Arabia, but that it would become more aggressive in undermining conservative Arab regimes. A nuclear-armed
In reality,
however, a nuclear bomb would not be of much use to Iranian efforts
to spread its influence across the Middle East. The Saudis and their allies, including the SunniIran, for example, might feel more secure in impeding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or stoking unrest in the Persian Gulf.
dominated Bahraini regime, often claim that Iran uses minority Shia populations as a fifth column to further its own ambitions. It is true that Iran has supported Shia
today, its influence

is rather limited. The Shia-led revolt in Bahrain is not being directed from Tehran, but is the result of the Bahraini government's repression of its
own population. Saudi fears of Iranian machinations should not obscure the
real reasons for instability in some Gulf Arab states. Many Arabs
now realize that the Islamic Republic is not so different than their
own repressive regimes, especially after having witnessed Tehran's brutal reaction to the 2009 post-election protests. Iran's continued
seditionists in the past Tehran was tied to a 1981 attempt by Shia groups to overthrow the Bahraini monarchy but
support of the violent Syrian regime has also undermined its position in the region. Moreover, most Gulf Shia do not appear to be devoted followers of Ayatollah Khamenei,
but instead follow other religious leaders, such as Iraq's Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Tehran's possession of nuclear weapons is unlikely to increase its influence with them.
nuclear-armed Iran would still be economically dependent on the

Gulf Arab states in any case. Saudi Arabia is the most powerful

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player in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whereas Iran's position has
declined in recent years. Riyadh's increased energy exports to Iran's traditional customers, mostly Asian countries, have allowed the United States to impose
sanctions on Iran without a dramatic rise in oil prices. Iran also depends heavily on the United Arab Emirates despite sanctions, the
emirate of Dubai serves as Iran's economic gateway to the outside
world. A nuclear Iran would still have to consider its economic
health: Meddling with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could damage its interests more so than those of its neighbors. The Islamic Republic might not give up
its opposition to the Gulf Arab states any time soon, but its ability to undermine the regional order is quite limited and will remain so, even if it obtains nuclear weapons.
D) No proxy wars or sponsoring of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Iran would extend its nuclear deterrence over 'proxies' Don't be
so sure . American and Israeli analysts often worry that Hezbollah
and Hamas would be emboldened by a nuclear-armed Iran. They fear
that these proxies could attack Israel with reckless abandon, secure in their
knowledge that Israel could not respond aggressively for fear of provoking a nuclear conflict. First of
all, the term proxy is problematic. Hezbollah has to protect its
own domestic interests first, despite its close religious and ideological ties to Tehran. The
Lebanese paramilitary organization may have been armed and equipped by Iran, and appears to be
working closely with Tehran in propping up the Syrian regime, but not all of its interests converge with
Given the delicate sectarian balance in Lebanon,

Hezbollah must appeal to the country's Sunni and Christian
communities as well as the Shia. It cannot appear to be a total Iranian pawn. Even if
Israel attacked Iran, there is no guarantee that Hezbollah would retaliate ,
especially given Israel's proven ability to demolish Shia strongholds through airstrikes. Iran might
also hesitate to extend its nuclear umbrella over Hezbollah. The
whole point of Iran's patronage of Hezbollah is to expand its regional
influence without bringing war to Tehran's doorstep and risking a nuclear
Tehran's ambitions.
exchange with Tel Aviv undermines that aim. The Iranian regime would prefer others do its fighting for it
rather than getting directly involved in a conventional or nuclear war with Israel. Not even Hezbollah is
Iran's establishment of a nuclear umbrella over

Hamas is even more unlikely. The Palestinian movement receives
Iranian military support, but it has distanced itself from Tehran
financially and politically in the wake of the violence in Syria. The Arab
worth the regime's demise.
Spring has opened up many opportunities for Hamas, with the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's
regime and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood decreasing its isolation. The Hamas leader in-exile, Khaled
Mashaal, has taken residence in Qatar and praised Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan as a leader of the
don't expect Khamenei to simply hand nukes over to

Iranian proxies, empowering them to wreak havoc across the
Middle East. The supreme leader does not even trust someone like Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani,
Muslim world. Similarly,
who was once responsible for his promotion to the top post in the Islamic Republic but recently disqualified
from competing in the upcoming presidential election. Trusting a non-Iranian group with a nuclear weapon
would simply be too risky for the risk-averse Khamenei.
E) Containment is possible.

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A nuclear-armed Iran cannot be contained It can be , but not without some cost.
Planning for a nuclear-armed Iran is often considered as an
admission of U.S. failure to prevent the Islamic Republic from
acquiring the bomb. Some analysts even consider it dangerous: They fear that it signals to
American allies, especially Israel, that President Barack Obama
might not follow through on his threat to use force if necessary. In reality,
the real choice lies not with Obama, but the Iranian leadership . Iran might
successfully go nuclear even if it faces a total economic embargo and military strikes. The nuclear knowledge and technology developed by Tehran, after all, cannot be
the
United States has contained Iran, in one way or another, since the
1979 Iranian Revolution. Tehran has faced sanctions since that time,
and the United States has maintained a sizeable military presence in
the Persian Gulf for the past three decades to protect its allies and constrain the Islamic Republic's regional ambitions. There is no denying that
containment and deterrence are costly. The United States will have to maintain considerable
military forces in the region, and might have to strengthen relations with its Sunni Gulf allies, some of which are the most
destroyed by smart bombs and cruise missiles. And a military attack against Iran could convince it that it needs nukes more than ever before. In truth,
undemocratic regimes in the Arab world. A nuclear-armed Iran could also suck away resources from the U.S. pivot to East Asia. But the U.S. policy of prevention also
Economic sanctions, although increasing the pressure on the

Iranian regime, are also devastating Iran's democratic-leaning and
pro-American middle class. If sanctions and diplomacy do not work, an Israeli or U.S. military attack against Iran could not only
lead to a prolonged and bloody war, but also set back the hope of democracy in Iran, and the wider region, for generations to come. Iran appears
to be going through a major transformation. Its upcoming presidential election may be engineered by
has costs.
Khamenei, an aging man set in his ways, but Iranian society has changed dramatically since 1979. Iranians want to rejoin the world their culture helped create. The Islamic
Republic might be ideological, but it is not irrational, and its own actions, including the pursuit of nuclear capability and support for the Syrian regime, are weakening it in
the long term. The Iranian regime is doing a good job of containing its influence all on its own. A nuclear-armed Iran is a dangerous possibility. But that should not distract
Containing Iran will be costly, but a

policy of pure prevention could be even costlier.
American decision-makers from seriously thinking about containment.

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A2 Venezuela Instability
Alt causes to Venezuelan instability
A- No political freedom or rights.
Kott 12 (Adam Kott, MA of Global Affairs Science, BA in International Affairs from GWU, fellow at the
Center for International Relations and Council on Hemispheric Affairs, Fall 2012, Assessing Whether Oil
Dependency in Venezuela Contributes to National Instability, Journal of Strategic Security, Volume 5
Number 3 Article 8, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1176&context=jss, Keerthi,
Acc 12/9/13)
Venezuela is not politically instable in the traditional sense. The country has regular elections
that are contested by various political parties. How- ever, the
structure is currently one of political asymmetry that encourages
either co-option or incendiary political rhetoric. Various indices rate the
country among the world's worst in terms of political freedoms. The
Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) 2011 Democracy Index ranks Venezuela 97th after taking into account
factors such as the electoral process, political participation, and civil
liberties. EIU also rates Venezuela "the worst offender" after Cuba in terms of freedom of the media.34 Reporters
Without Borders backs up this sentiment, ranking Venezuela 117th in the world in their 2011/2012 Press Freedoms Index.
Tied with Venezuela are a handful of other nations rarely lauded for
their freedoms: Cambodia, Fiji, Oman, and Zimbabwe. Nearly every index shows that political freedoms in
Venezuela have declined over the past decade. Freedom House's Freedom in the World 2012 is just another example:
Venezuela scores a 5 in both political rights and civil liberties. This ranking is down from 1999, when it scored a 4 in both
categories.35, 36 Though Freedom House may have designated Venezuela "partly free" before Chavez entered office, the
historical rankings show that the country has slipped even further during his presidency. Lastly, and perhaps most stark, is
Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, which measures the "perceived levels of public sector
Venezuela ranked 172nd, with only nine nations

designated as more corrupt.37
corruption." In 2011,
B- Corrupted elections and no checks and balances

Acc 12/9/13)
Administration is best described as a hybrid regime, a "political

system in which the mechanism for determining access to state
office combines both democratic and autocratic practices."38 A hybrid
regime is one in which the government rarely negotiates with
opposition forces, the State undermines the autonomy of civic
institutions, and loyalists of the government are put in the highest
offices, helping to undermine the system of checks and balances.
The Chavez
Chavez came to power following an era of extremely uneven growth in Venezuela. In the decade before his presidency,
Venezuela experienced a growth rate of less than 1 percent six times.39 Chavez was able to capitalize off the antiestablishment sentiments caused by the country's poor economic performance and created a "hyper presidential"
was able to manipulate the electoral process to "enable the

government, with only 53 percent of the votes, to 77 Journal of Strategic Security, Vol. 5 No. 3 Journal of
Strategic Security obtain control of 93 percent of the seats."40 Lastly, Chavez altered the structure of
the country's Supreme Court, ensuring that the judiciary would make
chavismo-inspired rulings by adding twelve of his close allies to the bench. Overall, since Chavez has
constitution. He

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Keerthi Gondi
political atmosphere in Venezuela has transformed from

one of "heightened power competition to...power asymmetry ."41
come to power the
C decline in PDVSA
Acc 12/9/13)
The deterioration of PDVSA has played an equally important role in

the instability witnessed today in Venezuela. The oil company has
experienced a vast "drain brain" and is being forced to spend
revenues on social programs rather than reinvestment into company infrastructure. These
social programs show some gains, though critics claim that these gains are merely superficial and fail to
PDVSA's rising
inefficiency and debt threaten to permanently cripple Venezuela's oil
economy. Without this commodity, the country has little to fall back on and what little gains were
address the structural inequalities within the nation. Unfortunately,
made during the Chavez Administration will become undone.

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A2 Venezuela Economy
Many alternative causes to Venezuelas economy.
Bandow and Hidalgo 11 (Doug, Cato Senior Fellow, JD from Stanford
University, and Juan Carlos, Policy Analyst on Latin America at the Center for
Global Liberty and Prosperity, MA in International Commerce and Policy from
GMU, Defusing Venezuelas Nuclear Threat?, Keerthi, Accessed 8/30/13)
The countrys infrastructure is crumbling. Last April an offshore
drilling rig rented by PDVSA, Venezuelas state-owned oil company,
sank. The deal involved a questionable rental contract with former PDVSA
executives and the accident was never properly investigated. Earlier this year
power blackouts caused by a series of explosions at electrical plants
and inadequate maintenance at the Guri hydro-electrical dam forced
the government to impose electricity rationing. Venezuelas
transportation infrastructure is literally falling apart. The
government agency that manages the countrys food supply let
120,000 tons of imported food rot in port while its own supermarkets
suffered shortages of basic staples. Chvezs anti-business policies
discourage private investment. Although Caracas is a major oil supplier,
it cannot easily afford an expensive nuclear program. With the days of
skyrocketing oil prices over, at least in the foreseeable future, the
government faces serious financial difficulties.
Tons of alt causes to Venezuelan economy

A Inflation
Acc 12/9/13)
In spite of Venezuela's vast oil wealth, the country faces a great deal of
economic instability. The most noticeable and damaging economic
mal- ady is inflation . Venezuela has the highest inflation rate in the
world , a staggering 28.9 percent.26 In fact, purchasing power has decreased by 15
percent since 2003, meaning citizens can now buy 15 percent less than they could in 1998.27 According to
the Index of Economic Freedom: "Venezuela
continues to be mired in a climate

of economic repression. Severely hampered by state interference, the formal economy is
increasingly stagnant, and informal economic activity is expanding. Monetary stability is
particularly weak, and there are extensive price controls on almost all
goods and services. Government interference in the financial sector further distorts price
levels and constrains private-sector growth by allocating credit on non-market
terms."28
B No businesses stationed in the country or FDI


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Keerthi Gondi

Acc 12/9/13)
dangerous aspect of the Venezuelan economy is that both

domestic and foreign business within the country is increasingly
Another
scarce . A World Bank analysis posits that there are only six countries in the world
where it is worse to do business.29 In fact, Venezuela is ranked one of
the top two worst places in the world to get credit, pay taxes, or
receive investor protection.30 Furthermore, many international investors have refrained from
entering the Venezuelan market due to Chavez's unpredictable nature. Since his first election in 1999, Chavez has
nationalized part or all of the oil, cement, steel, gold, and rice industries. The result of these national- izations remains
largely a mystery, as the government routinely releases economic data with little transparency. Overall, the country's
direct foreign
investment in Venezuela has decreased from $44 billion to $37.6 billion, a 14.5 percent
drop.31 As Chavez continues to nationalize industries and the government maintains intrusive policies, foreign
investment in Venezuela will continue to languish.
economy is beginning to feel the crunch of economic mismanagement. Since 2007,
C No safety funds, no federal regulations, and

government control.
Acc 12/9/13)
While many resource-rich nations have turned to sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) to help manage their resource rents,
Venezuela has largely turned a blind eye to the economic precaution.

SWFs help prevent the local currency from appreciating and act as
a "rainy day fund" to help bolster the economy of a resource-rich country when
commodity prices are low. Oil is responsible for nearly 95 percent of
Venezuela's export revenue , which between 1999 and 2010 totaled over $510 billion. Despite this
great number, the country's SWF is valued at less than 1 percent of this total, at a
mere $800 million. This pales in comparison to Norway, who has put over $560 billion in an SWF fund thanks to nearly $1
trillion worth of exports over the same time period. According to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, Chavez has nearly
country's
legislature has "limited involvement with any decision-making
regarding the fund, nor does it have an oversight role ."32 Over the last decade,
complete control over his country's SWF, as he appoints the SWF's leadership and the
Venezuela has become a heavily statist regime with severe regulatory restrictions and little history of private sector
The petroleum monoculture exacerbated the country's

economic woes when facing the 2008 global financial crisis . As a result of the
growth.
crisis, Venezuela witnessed local debts rise, inflation, exchange rate distortions, consumer good shortages, and the flight
of foreign direct investment.33 The Chavez government failed to pass any serious austerity measures, as spending cuts
would adversely impact his vital support base, the country's lowest classes.

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A2 Venezuela Proliferation
Venezuela Prolif not a threatA. Severe energy shortages, time, investment, tech and
science
Venezuelas close relationship with Iran and plans to build nuclear
facilities with Russian help are raising fears in Washington of
another nuclear crisis. The incoming Republican House majority may place increased pressure
on the Obama administration to confront Caracas. Washington need not panic. A Chavez
bomb is but a distant possibility and much will happen in Venezuela
in the meantime. The U.S. should work with other interested states to discourage Caracas from
pursuing nuclear weapons. Venezuela suffers from severe energy shortages
primarily due to the Chavez governments mismanagement and theres reason to doubt
Chvezs claim that his nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes. For one Chavezs arms
purchases far outstrip his nations security needs. Over the last decade Caracas has purchased fighters,
attack helicopters, antiaircraft missiles, and 100,000 assault rifles. Yet Venezuela has been at peace since
1823 and faces no external threats. Yet
even if Venezuela chooses to pursue
nuclear weapons, its far from certain that Caracas will succeed. The
difficult process requires time, money, technology, and science.
Developing nuclear weapons is even harder in the face of
international opposition. Moreover, creating weapons of deliverable
size poses another significant challenge.
B. Cant afford it- multiple alternative causes.

The countrys infrastructure is crumbling. Last April an offshore drilling
rig rented by PDVSA, Venezuelas state-owned oil company, sank. T he
deal involved a questionable rental contract with former PDVSA executives and the accident was never
power blackouts caused by a series of

explosions at electrical plants and inadequate maintenance at the
Guri hydro-electrical dam forced the government to impose
electricity rationing. Venezuelas transportation infrastructure is literally
falling apart. The government agency that manages the countrys
food supply let 120,000 tons of imported food rot in port while its own
supermarkets suffered shortages of basic staples. Chvezs anti-business policies
discourage private investment. Although Caracas is a major oil supplier, it cannot
properly investigated. Earlier this year

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easily afford an expensive nuclear program. With the days of skyrocketing oil
prices over, at least in the foreseeable future, the government faces serious financial difficulties.
C. It would take really long and even if Venezuela were to

start proliferating, US unilateral action cant do anything.
Obviously, it would be foolish to dismiss the possibility of Venezuela becoming a nuclear power, but
it is equally mistaken to speak of an over-the-horizon Cuban Missile
Crisis, in the words of the Heritage Foundations Peter Brookes. Venezuela is nowhere
close to or certain of becoming a threat to the U.S. Thus, the Obama
administration should develop a long-term strategy to head off any Chavez bomb. The U.S.
should maintain a low profile in Venezuelan affairs.
The chief issue in the
upcoming election should be Chavezs disastrous record. The less attention received by U.S. officials and
policy, the less blame Chavez can off-load on Washington, and the less he can claim that America poses a
threat. At the same time,
American individuals and groups should support
Venezuelan advocates of liberty.

grassroots activists committed to a free society.
The strongest opposition to Chavez comes from
The U.S. also should engage
Moscow. The Obama administration should be prepared to make

concessions on matters of NATO expansion and missile defense as part
of a larger political understanding, which would limit or end Russias military
relationship and nuclear plans with Caracas. Washington should
encourage Venezuelas neighbors and United Nations Security
Council members to press Caracas , as a signatory of the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, to comply with International Atomic Energy
Agency safeguards. Particularly important are the roles of Brazil and Argentina, which have had
nuclear ambitions in the past. No one, other than, presumably, Hugo Chavez, wants Venezuela to build
nuclear weapons. With the threat still distant, patience is a virtue.
The U.S. should assemble
a diplomatic coalition to constrain any nuclear ambitions in Caracas.

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A2 Particle Accelerators
Accelerators fail - - Engineering and construction
challenges.
Burrows 2008 (Philip Burrows, John Adams Institute, Oxford University,
Oxford, UK, Ph.D. in Particle Physics from Oxford, Fellow at the American
Physical Society, Engineering challenges of future particle accelerators,
Engineering and PhysicsSynergy for Success IOP Publishing,
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/105/1/012008/pdf/17426596_105_1_012008.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 10/13/13)
Abstract. Particle physics is on the threshold of major discoveries which will
shed light on the origin of mass, 'dark matter', and possible extra spatial dimensions in nature. Future
particle accelerators will recreate matter conditions not seen since the first
few billionths of a second after the Big Bang. The engineering challenges are
immense . 30km-long straight tunnels must be drilled to house the
accelerator, and components must be aligned and stabilised to
microns over distances of kilometers. High-power superconducting
niobium radio-frequency cavities will drive electron and positron
beams to velocities approaching the speed of light. The beams must
be made a few nanometers in size, and collided head-on after
traversing tens of kilometers. Feedback and control systems must
keep the beams in collision on nanosecond timescales.

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A2 BRICs/BRICs Impact Turn

No negative offense- BRICs fail and have no government
support- past successes are all hyped.
Roberts 13 (James M., Research Fellow in Freedom and Growth at The
Heritage Foundation's Center for International Trade and Economics, MA in
International and Development Economies, BA in International Affairs,
2/15/13, Declining Economic Freedom and Growing Statism: The BRICs Are
Hitting the Wall, Heritage Foundation- The Foundry,
http://blog.heritage.org/2013/02/15/declining-economic-freedom-andgrowing-statism-the-brics-are-hitting-the-wall/, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
Economist Nouriel Roubini warned late last month at the World Economic Forum that economic growth in the so-called
BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) is at risk: Their past successes were hyped
up,
and the futures of the BRICs are at risk
due to rising statism. This rising risk can be seen in the
graph belowstagnating economic freedom scores of the BRICs in The Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journals annual
Index of Economic Freedom. As Roubini notes, the biggest developing nations risk overturning the achievements of the
BRICs have recently

been moving away from market economies due to increased
past decade by increasing the states role in the economy. He reported that the
resource nationalization, protectionism, lack of momentum for

additional structural market-oriented reforms to increase the size of the private sector,
and a generally larger role by the state in enterprises and banks. These
specific areas of concern for Roubini are reflected in the Index scores for each of the BRICs: Brazil . Although
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has agreed to privatize some companies operating highways and railways (along with,
government still dominates too many areas of the

countrys economy, undercutting development of a more vibrant
private sector. Russia . The government of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
has called forbut has not implementedmarket reforms to reduce the role of the
state in the economy. But these reforms are being stonewalled by the statist
Putin presidency and state-owned industries, including oil, gas, pipelines, and the
perhaps, some airports), the
military-industrial complex, which resist transparency and privatization. Also, as Heritages Ariel Cohen reports,
Russian
law enforcement and the court system are corruptand

collapsing, which makes doing business in Russia doubly problematic. India . As Heritage reported last fall
(prior to new promises by Indian politicians to shift back to market reform policies), the Indian
government has been famously ineffective and has shown signs of
predatory behaviorputting revenue ahead of what is best for the
country. It has acted as a barrier in bilateral economic relations, for example in agriculture trade
and financial market access. More harmful actions, such as the recent introduction of retroactive taxation of
multinational corporations, discourage foreign participation in the Indian economy in general.
China . Although China extended some private property rights to farmers in the late 1970s, which enabled sharp
increases in food production and permitted the migration to the cities that backed the ensuing manufacturing expansion,
advances in rural property rights
have been minimal. This is part of

China is also
the worlds biggest thief of intellectual property . Meanwhile, the OECD
considers Chinas foreign-investment laws the most restrictive in the
G20. And state-owned enterprises have been making a comeback. While the BRIC grouping itselfa dubious bondsince then
the reason for sharp environmental deterioration and rural incomes falling far behind urban incomes.
marketing concoction by Goldman Sachs more than decade agois not important, the policies of large developing

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economies are. The warnings of the 2013 Index of Economic Freedom about stagnating economic freedom in the BRICs
(and elsewhere) are very clearand disturbing. Thankfully, the Index also includes a roadmap for the BRICs and others on
how to return to the path to growth.
Scenario 1 is Hegemony:
BRIC economic control displaces US hegemony and
unipolarity
Global Research News 13 (Center for Research on Globalization, 4/3/13, BRICS
Challenges Unipolar World and US Dollar Hegemony, http://www.globalresearch.ca/brics-challengesunipolar-world-and-us-dollar-hegemony/5329590, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi, acronyms: BRICS- Brazil,
Russia, India, China, South Africa Union)
The BRICS just became impossible to ignore . At the close of the Fifth annual BRICS Summit in Durban,
South Africa last week, there was little question that this group of five fast-growing economies was
underwriting an overhaul of the global economic and political order.
The eThekwini Declaration issued at summits end was couched in non-confrontational language, but it was manifestly clear that western hegemony and unipolarity were
The BRICS hit some major western sore spots
being targeted at this meeting.

by announcing the
formation of a $50 billion jointly-funded development bank to rival the IMF and World Bank. Deals were signed to increase inter-BRICS trade in their own currencies, further
A series of unmistakable challenges were

dealt to old world leaders: reform your institutions and economies
or well do it ourselves. Intent on filling a leadership void in global economic and financial affairs, the BRICS also
began to draw some firm political lines in the sand. For starters, the summit was focused on
eroding the US dollars status as the worlds reserve currency.
development in Africa a resource-rich continent where competing economic interests have drawn increasingly polarized geopolitical battle lines in the past few years. The
BRICS were invited to the African table via their newest member state, South Africa, and have used this opportunity to fully back the African Union (AU). The AU has been
Africas attempt to integrate and unify the continent economically - via the establishment of a single currency and development fund that could bypass the very punishing
IMF and militarily via the establishment of security/defense organizations and joint military forces, among other things. AU success would necessarily mean less oldstyle western imperialism in the region, reducing exploitative foreign economic activities and excluding foreign forces like the US militarys African Command (AFRICOM)
BRICS determination to anchor

any emerging global order in multilateralism whether by
demanding permanent seats within the UN Security Council, forging alternative
economic constructs that will shift the balance of power their way, or
proactively influencing outcomes in global conflict zones. Syria and Iran The
from engaging in the African military theater. At the heart of the Summits agenda lies the
Durban summit therefore was not going to ignore the two most prominent issues on UN Security Councils docket Syria and Iran. Last week, the BRICS collectively
rejected any further militarization of these problems, advocated political solutions negotiated through diplomatic initiatives, expressed concern over unilateral sanctions
and warned against infringement on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of these nations. The eThekwini Declaration says about Iran: We believe there is no
alternative to a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. We recognize Irans right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy consistent with its international obligations,
and support resolution of the issues involved through political and diplomatic means and dialogue. And on Syria, the BRICS fully backed the Geneva principles as the
framework for resolving the two-year conflict: We believe that the Joint Communiqu of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for resolution of the Syrian crisis and
reaffirm our opposition to any further militarization of the conflict. A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be achieved only through broad national
dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by
the Geneva Joint Communiqu and appropriate UNSC resolutions. The BRICS positions on Iran and Syria cannot, however, be viewed solely within the parameters of the
summits declaration. For starters, the statement is nothing new the BRICS have been advocating these points in some form or another since they issued their first
foreign policy communiqu in November 2011. To understand the depth and breadth of commitment behind these Mideast stances, one needs to look beyond the
sanitized, diplomat-speak of the summit environment. India, Brazil and South Africa, for instance, dont offer up much commentary on Syria and Iran they leave that to
their UNSC permanent-member colleagues in Russia and China, who are the BRICS front-men on these issues. Earlier in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited
Moscow on his first foreign trip as head of state, and told audiences there: We must respect the right of each country in the world to independently choose its path of
development and oppose interference in the internal affairs of other countries. A clear warning against aggressive western interventionism, Xis visit with Russias
Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of their strategic partnership in geopolitical affairs. On Syria, in particular, Russia has taken the BRICS lead with the blessing
of its fellow members including China so Moscows view of the situation is a critical one to analyze. The Russians have recently released a concept paper on the
importance of their participation in the BRICS a view that is likely to reflect similar priorities at the highest levels of fellow member states. BRICS drawing red lines
For all the BRICS, financial and

economic considerations are the driving momentum behind the
formalization of this strategic coalition. There is, say the Russians, a common desire of BRICS partners to reform
Putin and Xi say the one way to end the Syrian crisis is through dialogue [Xinhua]
the obsolete international financial and economic architecture which does not take into account the increased economic power of emerging market economies and
, a simultaneous rebalancing of
political power worldwide must also occur. Moscow believes that the BRICS can
potentially become a key element of a new system of global
governance primarily in the financial and economic areas. At the
same time, the Russian Federation stands in favor of positioning
BRICS in the world system as a new model of global relations,
overarching the old dividing lines between East and West, and North
and South. Its a bold new world , but theres real value in some of the old ways. For one, the BRICS are big proponents
of the Rule of Law in global affairs, concepts the West often tosses around, but rarely
developing countries. But for fundamental economic shifts to take place

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adheres to in pursuit of its own strategic interests, i.e. interventionism, regime-change,

militarization of conflict. For the Russians, an absolute BRICS priority is building on the
commitment by the participating states to the rule of law in
international relations, to progressively expand the foreign policy cooperation with BRICS partners in the interests of peace and security
with due respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of other states and non-interference in their internal affairs. The BRICS are backing the UN model to help
achieve these basic principles. For them, the vehicle is not what is broken the problem lies with its drivers. And in particular, the notion that regime change, sanctions
and military intervention are acceptable tools in international affairs. The BRICS, according to Moscow, can enhance in every possible way interaction within the UN as
well as to preserve and strengthen the UN Security Councils role as a body bearing the primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security; to prevent
the use of the UN, first of all the Security Council, to cover up the course towards removing undesirable regimes and imposing unilateral solutions to conflict situations,
including those based on the use of force. As an aside, its hardly a coincidence that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sent a widely-reported letter to the BRICS during
the Summit. Here, after all, was the head of state of a sovereign nation requesting the help of the newly-ascendant BRICS in protecting the territorial integrity of Syria by
rebuffing blatant foreign interference in contradiction of the UN Charter. That letter hit all the BRICS soft spots: Rule of Law in international relations, preservation of
global peace and security, peaceful resolution of conflict, de-militarization and recognition of the importance of the BRICS in the new world order. Assads letter came
one day after the Arab League gave Syrias seat away to an external-based opposition coalition backed by Syrian foes a move the Russians called unlawful and invalid
and a hindrance to the peaceful resolution of the conflict. It may be that BRICS intended to set an example here. Receiving this letter at the summit clearly bestows
legitimacy on Assad and his claims and it is hard to imagine that this was not an event coordinated in advance. Moscows positions on the Syria issue cannot be seen
out of the context of these shared BRICS principles. The Russians may have more at stake in what is going on in Syria as others do in Iran but these are consistent red
lines in what the BRICS hope to achieve globally. And they are willing to bet on it too. Part of the wager is that faltering western economies are so far gone on their
current trajectories, that only time is required for these global shifts to materialize. In any regard, shortly after the Summit concluded Russia vowed to prevent any
measure in the UN Security Council to give Syrias seat to the opposition. The potential for chaos looms large though as a new political order emerges, and as a collective
the BRICS will not be shy about pushing their agendas hard a task made easier by the considerable clout they now share. On his flight back from Durban to Moscow last
Thursday, Putin ordered surprise large-scale military maneuvers in the Black Sea, which borders Syrian-foe Turkey a move most observers took as a warning for foreign
interventionists in Syria. It is unlikely that BRICS nations would go to such lengths to draw red lines and not defend those positions. How this would transpire in the cases
of Syria or Iran is uncertain it is unlikely we are going to see a BRICS army fighting battles anytime soon. On the other hand, these strategic relationships are likely to give
way to coordinated military positions and some special forces planning for exactly these kinds of scenarios. This is not hard to fathom. BRIC was just an acronym created
by Goldman Sachs to describe some fast-growing emerging economies a few years ago.
Today, they are engaged in
bilateral military exercises, funding banks, building institutions,

and remapping global priorities for the 21st century.
US and EU control over the BRIC economies through TTIP

means BRIC cant leverage pressure to reshape the
international order.
Beibei 13 (Huang, Peoples Daily Online, 6/21, Can TTIP reshape the
West? http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/8294139.html, Accessed

8/11/13, Keerthi)
In international markets, the EU is confronted by competition from both the US and
emerging countries. Its enthusiasm for TTIP shows that the EU is
choosing to dance with the wolves and maintain the established
order - a response to the US strategy of focusing on the Asia-Pacific axis. Politicians naturally
expect to gain political capital from TTIP, demonstrating that the EU
is not isolated, and that it expects to lead the world again. Barrosos political bet on TTIP
effectively represents his pitch for a term as President of the EU Commission. The EU's objective
is to increase two-way trade and investment between Europe and America and promote
employment and economic growth through market access, regulatory coordination, and common
standards. Of the three driving forces for economic growth - investment, consumption and exports - the
EU can rely only on exports. An all-out effort to promote free trade

through the prioritization of TTIP represents the EUs core strategy
to resolve its economic and strategic dilemma. This is exactly what the US wants
to see. Having bypassed China, the EU has reached agreements with South Korea and Singapore, and is
conducting negotiations with Japan, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia in Asia. In some ways this
TTIP negotiations
will focus on the key issues that include market access and
regulatory rules, non-tariff barriers, and market rules. Agreements
between the US and Europe on technical standards will have a
significant impact on the world economy, as they will in effect
become new international standards. If agreement is reached, TTIP will
become the base of new international trade and investment rules,
thereby affecting the entire global regulatory process . Together with the
mirrors the US strategy of returning to Asia. In addition to reducing tariffs,
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), the impact on China will be a significant increase in the cost of
participation in globalized markets. Theoretically it is impossible for TPP to exclude China, but because of

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The
result will be increased pressure on China, and China will once again
face remodeled western rivals. The challenge for Chinas strategic
wisdom will be whether it seeks to resolve the issue through focus
on the EU, on FTA, or on its economic relationships with the BRICS.
the narrow economic gap between the US and Europe, TTIP will be easier to achieve than TPP.
Loss of US Heg results in nuclear war and extinction.

Barnett 11 (Thomas, Professor, Warfare Analysis and Research Dept U.S.
Naval War College, The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and
Globalization, at Crossroads, March 7, 2011,
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadershipfatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads, Accessed 8/2/13)
Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads in our
continuing evolution as the world's sole full-service superpower.
Unfortunately, we are increasingly seeking change without cost, and
shirking from risk because we are tired of the responsibility . We don't know
who we are anymore, and our president is a big part of that problem. Instead of leading us, he explains to us. Barack Obama would have us
believe that he is practicing strategic patience. But many experts and ordinary citizens alike have concluded that he is actually beset by
We live in a
time of arguably the greatest structural change in the global order
yet endured, with this historical moment's most amazing feature
being its relative and absolute lack of mass violence. That is something to consider when Americans
strategic incoherence -- in effect, a man overmatched by the job. It is worth first examining the larger picture:
contemplate military intervention in Libya, because if we do take the step to prevent larger-scale killing by engaging in some killing of our
own, we will not be adding to some fantastically imagined global death count stemming from the ongoing "megalomania" and "evil" of
American "empire." We'll be engaging in the same sort of system-administering activity that has marked our stunningly successful stewardship
As the guardian of globalization, the U.S.

military has been the greatest force for peace the world has ever
known. Had America been removed from the global dynamics that
governed the 20th century, the mass murder never would have ended.
Indeed, it's entirely conceivable there would now be no identifiable human civilization
left, once nuclear weapons entered the killing equation. But the world
did not keep sliding down that path of perpetual war. Instead,
America stepped up and changed everything by ushering in our nowperpetual great-power peace. We introduced the international liberal
trade order known as globalization and played loyal Leviathan over its spread. What
resulted was the collapse of empires, an explosion of democracy, the
persistent spread of human rights, the liberation of women, the
doubling of life expectancy, a roughly 10-fold increase in adjusted
global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from
of global order since World War II. Let me be more blunt:
state-based conflicts.
Scenario 2 is the Middle East

BRIC power would reject US and UN deterrence in Iran and
Syria- provokes proliferation and war.
Global Research News 13 (Center for Research on Globalization,
4/3/13, BRICS Challenges Unipolar World and US Dollar Hegemony,
http://www.globalresearch.ca/brics-challenges-unipolar-world-and-us-dollarhegemony/5329590, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
Syria and Iran The Durban summit therefore was not going to ignore the two
most prominent issues on UN Security Councils docket Syria and Iran. Last week, the
BRICS collectively rejected any further militarization of these problems,

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expressed concern
over unilateral sanctions and warned against infringement on the
territorial integrity and sovereignty of these nations. The eThekwini
Declaration says about Iran: We believe there is no alternative to a
negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. We recognize Irans
right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy consistent with its
international obligations, and support resolution of the issues involved through political and
diplomatic means and dialogue. And on Syria, the BRICS fully backed the
Geneva principles as the framework for resolving the two-year
conflict: We believe that the Joint Communiqu of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for
resolution of the Syrian crisis and reaffirm our opposition to any further
militarization of the conflict. A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be
advocated political solutions negotiated through diplomatic initiatives,
achieved only through broad national dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of
Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by
The BRICS positions on

Iran and Syria cannot, however, be viewed solely within the parameters
of the summits declaration. For starters, the statement is nothing new the BRICS have been
advocating these points in some form or another since they issued their first foreign policy
the Geneva Joint Communiqu and appropriate UNSC resolutions.
communiqu in November 2011. To understand the depth and breadth of commitment behind these
Mideast stances, one needs to look beyond the sanitized, diplomat-speak of the summit environment.
India, Brazil and South Africa, for instance, dont offer up much commentary on Syria and Iran they leave
that to their UNSC permanent-member colleagues in Russia and China, who are the BRICS front-men on
these issues. Earlier in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow on his first foreign trip as head
of state, and told audiences there: We must respect the right of each country in the world to
independently choose its path of development and oppose interference in the internal affairs of other
countries. A clear warning against aggressive western interventionism, Xis visit with Russias Vladimir
On Syria, in
particular, Russia has taken the BRICS lead with the blessing of its
fellow members including China so Moscows view of the situation is a critical one to analyze.
Putin emphasized the importance of their strategic partnership in geopolitical affairs.
The Russians have recently released a concept paper on the importance of their participation in the BRICS
a view that is likely to reflect similar priorities at the highest levels of fellow member states.
Iran proliferation causes nuclear war- deterrence is key.

Al Faisal 13 (Prince Turki Al Faisal, chairman of the King Faisal Center for
Research and Islamic Studies, former director general of Saudi Arabias

intelligence agency, and former ambassador to the United States, 8/9/13,
How to Save the Middle East from Nuclear War,
http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2013/08/how-save-middle-east-nuclearwar/68120/, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
My proposal for a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the
Middle East seeks to inject much-needed energy into resolving a
crucial issue that affects us all, but none more than the peoples of the Middle East
themselves. The international community has often clung to policies that
fail to tackle the obstacles to action. While my proposals stretch the boundaries
of conventional thinking, they predictably will invite objections . They should be given a
fair hearing. Otherwise, we are all heading to a new and more dangerous
Middle East containing many nuclear-armed states in which the risk
of nuclear war will be greatly magnified. No region in the world is in
greater need of becoming such a zone than the conflict-cursed Middle East.
This region is in the midst of a drastic transformation. One of its
states (Israel) is a de facto nuclear weapon state and another one
(Iran) is progressing toward becoming one. Both countries have lied about their
intentions in this regard. Israel publicly stated that it would not introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle

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Iran has
publicly stated that it seeks the peaceful development of nuclear
power, yet it continues to raise enrichment levels in its centrifuges
while increasing their number and preventing International Atomic
Energy Agency inspectors from inspecting suspected sites . Given the
East, yet it is believed to posses over 200 warheads with the required delivery systems.
importance of this issue in this region and the current political changes taking place there, I have written a
fuller Harvard paper that addresses the issue of establishing a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone, or
WMDFZ.
Syrian conflict pulls in great powers and causes nuclear

war
Dilks 13 (Andrew, author of Goliath, book about international warfare, 8/8,
Syrian Atrocities, Deception and the Road to Nuclear War,

http://disinfo.com/2013/08/syrian-atrocities-deception-and-the-road-tonuclear-war/, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
Syrian rebels have allegedly carried out another massacre of civilians, all in the name of
freeing civilians from the yoke of evil dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Al-Alam News Network reported that mercenaries from
the al-Nusra Front a ruthless group believed to have ties to the CIA and Turkish intelligence murdered 120 Kurdish children and 330 men and women in the town of Tal
Abyad located in a district of northern Syria. It is the latest in a string of atrocities carried out by groups opposing the Syrian government, which include dozens of civilian
massacres, beheadings (including an incident in which opposition forces cheered on as a 14 year old boy beheaded a Syrian soldier) and a gruesome incident with a rebel
cutting out and eating a soldiers heart (who was kind enough to grant the BBC an interview). That these violent mercenaries and extremists are backed by the West
should come as no surprise to anyone who has followed events in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya (indeed, many of the mercenaries currently carrying out atrocities in Syria
were involved in the proxy war to overthrow Colonel Gaddafi). The British government are currently weighing up the efficacy of arming the rebels, with mixed signals
emerging from Parliament over whether or not weapons should be send to the conflict zone. Prime Minister David Cameron suggested he had ruled out such a possibility,
but foreign secretary William Hague arch-warmonger of the Conservatives indicated clearly that arming the rebels is still very much an option. Such
debates seem more concerned with the legal and diplomatic

ramifications than they are with the disastrous moral/humanitarian
consequences the Iraq War demonstrated clearly the penchant for slaughter held by the vast majority of British politicians. The US
government is considerably more brazen. Having invaded Afghanistan on the pretext of eliminating al-Qaeda,
12 years on the very same terrorist groups have been receiving US military contracts. American officials are citing due process rights as a reason not to cancel the
agreements, a statement of galling irony in light of the hundreds of detainees held at Guantanamo Bay held without any consideration for their rights, many of whom were
rounded up in the early years of the Afghanistan War for the cash bounties offered by the US. Following a secret order in 2012, the Obama administration and the CIA
have been arming the Syrian militants, including anti-tank weapons and Stinger missiles. Intelligence insiders have recently revealed that the Benghazi attack, in which the
US ambassador and others were murdered by jihadists, was in fact a staged event conducted by the State Department for the transfer of arms to al-Qaeda in Syria. It is
yet another instance of US covert gun-running which echoes the Fast and Furious scandal, in which the US government shipped thousands of weapons across the Mexican
the recent Middle East terror alerts absurd,

to say the least. Coming soon after the Edward Snowden revelations regarding the NSAs surveillance program and the public backlash against
border and into the hands of drug cartels. All of which makes
spying on such an unprecedented scope, its not hard to see why many view this alleged terror threat as a political stunt to vindicate the governments snooping. And
as embassies across the Muslim world shut down, the mainstream

media is once again repeating the terrorism mantra in wall to wall
coverage designed to ratchet up the tension and fear. But perhaps far
more troubling is the recent involvement of Israel, who entered the conflict with a bang when
they bombed the Qassioun Mountain Research Site back in May. In alliance with Turkey, Israeli attacks on
Syria have been met with hollow denials and a mute response from the mainstream media. But the most recent
attacks in Homs and Qasyoon earlier this month should give any sane person cause for concern. The size of the explosions were initially attributed to the
ammunition dump which had been targeted. But a recent report from Channel 4s Jon Snow has suggested another disturbing
possibility: Israel is using nuclear weapons. Greg Thielmann, an expert on arms control policy, told Snow: The fact of the
matter is, what we are seeing in both these cases is a tactical nuclear strike, probably by cruise missiles launched from aircrafts near the borders of Syria or right off the
coast in the Mediterranean. Horrific as this may sound, Snow went on to describe this as a remarkably delicious possibility of removing the tyrant Assad using all tools
the prospect is
simply awfully ironic rather than plain and simple awful. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Snows piece has since been pulled from Channel 4s blog pages (but
can be found here.) It is clear that the world currently faces the slippery slope
to nuclear war and that further escalation of violence in Syria may
well develop into a proxy war between the US and Russia or
something much worse. As we commemorate the use of nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki the threat of
nuclear war looms over the planet. Perhaps now more than ever men of violence need to be opposed by men of peace.
available, advocating the use of nuclear and chemical weapons in the name of human rights and freedom in the world. To Snow,

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1NC Climate Treaties Fail

Climate treaties fail:
Thirst for natural resources and the modern economic
system.
Cooke 12 (Shamus, social worker, unionist, professional at Workers Action,
Why UN Climate Agreements Must Fail, Center for Research on
Globalization, http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-un-climate-agreementsfail/5313881, Keerthi, Accessed 8/29/13)
Countless environmentalists have tried to solve the climate issue while
keeping capitalism in place, since this is the only practical solution. But this approach has failed as the
climate has dramatically worsened. Its becoming increasingly obvious to a growing number of people that
our economic system itself cannot be reformed to save our

environment, regardless of the incentives or other schemes to make it so. In fact, capitalism
internationally has declared war against the public sector via massive privatization schemes that
environmental agencies are de-funded

and run by anti-environment bureaucrats. Capitalism seems to be screaming out its
inability to change, except for the worse. This is also why the Doha climate talks have
less ambitious goals than the Copenhagen conference before it; we are going in
the wrong direction at the same speed that the climate is worsening. There is a
direct connection between the reverse direction of the climate talks
and the scramble for oil and other raw materials that is leading to
war at an alarming rate. Capitalism is in crisis and needs all available
resources funneled into the private sector to re-boost profits, to the
destroy what little regulation existed, while
detriment of the environment. Addressing climate change will take a monumental largely unprofitable
The climate talks are indeed going backwards as international

competition for markets and raw materials meets in a crescendo,
effort.
leading to an increasing amount of regional wars.
2. US domestic political disagreements.

Geden, 12 (Oliver, senior research fellow at the German Institute for
International and Security Affairs, Spiegel Online International News, Waiting

for Obama: Hope Not Enough in Battle against Climate Change,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/negotiation-a-solution-to-climatechange-is-destined-for-failure-a-869406.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/28/13)
Two decades after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, international climate
policy remains an unfulfilled promise. Since the adoption of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change in 1992, global greenhouse gas emissions have risen by one-third. In light of these
sobering figures, it is astonishing to find that the principle of hope still prevails in climate policy. At last year's climate
194 states once again agreed to make everything better

in the future. Europeans succeeded in pushing through a schedule for negotiations intended ultimately to
summit in Durban,
produce a comprehensive and ambitious world climate agreement. The Durban declarations envisaged the adoption of a
global climate treaty by the end of 2015 and its entry into force in 2020. It would include reduction targets for countries
that had previously blocked international climate protection agreements, such as India, China, and the USA, and a 2
at the beginning of the 2012

climate summit in Doha/Qatar, it is already clear that this plan will fail.
One of the most serious weaknesses of the negotiation process is
degree Celsius limit on the global temperature increase. But
the overdependence on US domestic politics. Despite President Barack

Obama's re-election, fundamental change is not about to come. The
president is likely to maintain his previous position: that the US will

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only be able to commit to emissions reductions in the UN context

after the level of these commitments has been set down in national
climate legislation. In 2010, an attempt to pass such a law failed despite
a comfortable Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress.
3. No international sense of urgency or catastrophe

Barrett 11 (Scott, at the school of International and Public Affairs and Earth Institute at Columbia
University, Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, November 7 2011, Climate Treaties
and Approaching Catastrophes, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
http://scholar.princeton.edu/rccu/files/Climate%20treaties%20and%20approaching%20catastrophes,
%20Barrett.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 8/28/13)
The standard model of a self-enforcing international environmental

agreement predicts that collective action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions will
be grossly inadequate. When this model is modified to incorporate a certain threshold with catastrophic
damages, treaties can become highly effective. If the benefits of avoiding the threshold
are high relative to the costs, the prospect of catastrophe
transforms treaties into coordination devices. Uncertainty about catastrophic
damages is relatively unimportant to this calculus, whereas uncertainty about the threshold is
critical . When the catastrophic threshold is certain, a slight
relaxation in abatement from the threshold triggers a discontinuous change in
damagesa huge deterrent to free riding. When the threshold is uncertain, a
similar relaxation anywhere within the range of uncertainty for the
threshold causes expected damages to increase just a littlea tiny
disincentive to free ride. While the uncertain prospect of
approaching catastrophes may commend substantially greater
abatement in the full cooperative outcome, it may make little
difference to non-cooperative behavior or to the ability of a climate
treaty to sustain substantial cuts in global emissions .29

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2NC Ext: Treaties Fail Congress

Congressional gridlock in the US blocks effective global
treaties.
Takei 13 (Milton Eugene, Climate Change lobbyist, US holds key to climate
treaty,
http://citizensclimatelobby.org/files/images/2013%2005%2028%20RegisterGu
ard%20Takei%20LTE%20U.S.%20holds%20key%20to%20climate
%20treaty.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 8/28/13)
U.S. elected officials have performed poorly in addressing the global
warming crisis and we cant wait for the voters to kick them out of office. Only international
cooperation can solve the problem. The 2011 Durban conference called on countries to
negotiate a new global warming treaty by 2015 and the world will be lucky if that
would be in time to prevent the planet from going past the point of no return. Yet December 2015 is less
We need to
convince politicians in Washington, D.C., that they have an obligation to future generations.
Eric Pooleys 2010 book, The Carbon War, shows how the 2009 Copenhagen
conference failed because the global warming legislation then under
consideration in the U.S. Congress was dead in the water. A new
treaty wont come into being if the United States fails to make the
concessions that would allow the worlds poor countries to view an
accord as fair. Action in Congress is essential to break a deadlock in
negotiations.
than three years away. The Citizens Climate Lobby has the only viable strategy:

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A2 OAS
OAS fails to solve key issue, wastes time on irrelevant
topic and fails to respect human rights
Ros-Lehtinen 2013 (July 24th 2013, Ros-Lehtinen is a congresswoman
representing Floridas 27th district, Cuban Immigrant with a Masters and
Doctorate in Education, http://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/about-me/full-biography
accessed 11/7)
I would like to commend my dear friend Senators Menendez and Rubio who along with Senators Corker
and Udall brought forth an important bipartisan bill to reform a wasted agency which is the Organization of
American States.
I remain extremely disappointed that the OAS continues

to fail to live up to its obligations to support the respect for human
rights and uphold democratic principles. The OAS wastes time
attacking our nation and discussing issues that are of no relevance
to its charter all the while we in the United States contribute
approximately 60% of this bloated OAS budget. For example, two weeks ago the
OAS met regarding Edward Snowden and the Evo Morales plane, and the Secretary General issued a press
release stating: It is very clear that this is an event that goes beyond the explanations that have been
given hereThe incident leaves a wound and the best way to heal that wound, to mend that wound, is to
know what really happened, what really took place. What a waste! What about the illegitimate elections in
Venezuela? What about the illegitimate elections in Nicaragua? Are we to expect a similar statement
calling for investigations regarding the North Korean flagged ship that left from Cuba to North Korea with
missile equipment, in clear violation of several UN Security Council resolutions? And we thank the
Government of Panama for stopping that illicit shipment. What about the continued human rights abuses
The OAS remains silent on all these

important topics, fails to live up to any of its obligations, and does
not hold accountable any despotic regime that oppresses millions of
people within our Hemisphere.
against pro-democracy advocates in Cuba?
OAS is irrelevant to Latin America and has no power

Brian Ellsworth 2012 (April 16th, 2012 Ellsworth is a journalist with broad
base of experience writing for newspapers, trade publications on subjects including
energy, Latin American politics. Senior Brazilian correspondent with Reuters, Despite
Obama charm, Americas summit boosts U.S. isolation
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/us-americas-summit-obamaidUSBRE83F0UD20120417 11/7)
Also signals a further weakening of the already strained hemispheric
system of diplomacy, built around the Organization of American
States (OAS) which has struggled to remain relevant during a time of
rapid change for its members. Seen as an instrument of U.S. policy
in Latin America during the Cold War, the OAS has lost ground in a
region that is no longer content with being the backyard of the
United States. "It seems the United States still wants to isolate us from the world, it thinks it can
still manipulate Latin America, but that's ending," said Bolivian President Evo Morales, a fierce critic of U.S.
policy in Latin America and staunch ally of Venezuela's leftist leader Hugo Chavez. " What
I think is
that this is a rebellion of Latin American countries against the
United States."

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The issue of Cube divides OAS, destroying its ability to

withstand competition
Brian Ellsworth 2012 (April 16th, 2012 Ellsworth is a journalist with broad
base of experience writing for newspapers, trade publications on subjects including
energy, Latin American politics. Senior Brazilian correspondent with Reuters,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/us-americas-summit-obamaidUSBRE83F0UD20120417 11/7)
The stark divide over Cuba - with 32 nations in favor of inviting it to
future summits and only the United States and Canada opposed will fuel arguments that the OAS is an outdated institution for
regional diplomacy. The OAS already faces competition from
alternative forums such as the Union of South American nations
(Unasur) and the Chavez-backed Community of Latin American and
Caribbean states (Celac). Despite the new winds blowing in regional diplomacy, economics is
driving the changes as much as politics. Once seen as monolithic block of basket-case economies
dependent on U.S. support, Latin American countries are coveted investment destinations with
sophisticated financial systems that have innovated in areas ranging from energy to aviation.

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A2 CELAC
CELAC fails due to fundamental structural problems
Andrea Mares 2011 (December 7,2011, Council on Hemispheric affairs
research assistant, BIG HOPES FOR CELAC, BUT LITTLE OUTCOME (AT LEAST
FOR NOW) http://www.coha.org/big-hopes-for-celac-but-little-outcome-atleast-for-now/ accessed on 11/7)
At CELACs first summit, Hugo Chavez declared that a Troika (trio) of countries would lead
the organization. This body is to be made up of the country hosting
the current summit, the country that will host the next summit and
the country that had staged the previous summit. As of now, the Troika is
composed of Chile, Venezuela and Cuba. The idea of a cluster of countries may work well in theory since it
continually will depend upon the three to work in harmony in spite of ideological cross currents; such
cooperation will circulate a reality that the host countries at a given summit hold a significant amount of
power, and if every country eventually takes turn being a host, all of them will get a chance to be a leader,
and because of the investiture of sober attention, can only attribute importance to its membership.
However, in reality,
the organization fails to take into account the real

diversity of all the countries involved in the organization. For example, at
the first summit Trinidad and Tobago pointed out that there were no countries in the Troika from the
Caribbean. Without a leadership position in the Troika, how can these countries have any effective
representation? Not only is there now great diversity among the countries in terms of location, but also in
terms of how much disposable power they collectively, as well as individually, hold .
This disregard
for how much individual weight certain countries carry allowed for
major players, such as Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, to realize that
they will have only a limited voice at CELAC gatherings until it is
their turn to host a summit event. Enraged by this idea, Brazil,
Mexico and Argentina did not participate in day two of the summit . As
of now, some would have you believe that CELAC is nothing more than a seemingly
anti-American organization that has failed to create a secretariat or
anything else that could allow it to be a legitimate institution with concrete functions and a hand book of
responsibility. There also remains the factor of whether its destiny is to lack the proper representation of all
If CELAC wants to productively implement policies to

solve major regional issues and eventually be a major player in the
making of Latin American and Caribbean policy, it must first work on
its fundamental structure. Chavez has stated a giant was born in reference to CELAC, but
the countries involved.
so far this giant might be in its more miniscule phase.
With Chavez dead, CELAC lacks the leadership to be

productive
Helen Popper and Alejandro Lifschitz 2013 (January 28 , 2013, Writers for Reuters, In
th
flowery letter from sickbed, Venezuela's Chavez calls for regional unity
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/28/us-venezuela-chavezidUSBRE90R0OS20130128 accessed 11/7)

The absence of the loquacious leader was conspicuous at the CELACEuropean Union summit in Chile, as many foreign leaders and
diplomats fret about the stability of the OPEC nation. Chavez's fiery leftist
rhetoric often made headlines at regional gatherings. Five years ago at another summit in Chile, Spain's
The socialist president was a driving force

behind the creation of the CELAC, or Community of Latin American
king famously told Chavez to "shut up."

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and Caribbean States, which was established in 2011 in a drive to

increase regional integration and counter U.S. influence in the
hemisphere.

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A2 Mexican Drug War

Mexican drug war efforts fail
1) The Mexican military and policy system isnt sufficient
and US aid to fighting cartels fails
--The army is unprepared and uncoordinated
--No national police force
--County police forces work for the drug cartels
--US aid places restrictions on human rights provisions and military freedom
Castaneda 2013 (Jorge Castaneda, foreign minister of Mexico during the
administration of President Vicente Fox, B.A. from Princeton University and a
Ph.D. in Economic History from the University of Paris, updated in 2013,
originally published on 5/6/10, Mexicos Failed Drug War, Economic
Development Bulletin No. 13, http://www.cato.org/publications/economicdevelopment-bulletin/mexicos-failed-drug-war)
Who is waging this war? This is a complicated question. We have an
army in Mexico, the purpose of which is not to be a fighting army,
but to participate in rescue efforts when some natural disaster strikes the country. Mexicos
political system has, since the 1920s, deliberately ensured that the army is useless. There is a tremendous consensus in
the country on this matter. We want an army that is corrupt, poorly trained, poorly equipped, and totally useless. Why?
Because those armies dont overthrow their governments. We have not even had an
attempted military coup in Mexico since 1938. An old, distinguished Mexican politician, Jess Reyes Heroles, who in the
1960s was head of Pemex, the stateowned oil company, once told me that one day there was a riot somewhere in the
country, and the minister of defense came to him and said, I need more gas for my trucks. Mr. Reyes Heroles refused, so
the minister of defense went to complain to the president about why he couldnt have any more gas for his trucks. The
president then called the head of Pemex and asked him about the situation. Mr. Reyes Heroles said, Look, Mr. President,
Ill do whatever you want, but standing orders here in Pemex are never to give the army more than two days of gasoline.
Its not as stupid as it

sounds; it was actually very wise. The caveat is that you cant ask such an army to go to
If you want me to give them more, Ill do it. But this is the way things operate.
war because thats not its business. Therefore, you have an army
that is totally unprepared to fight a war against drug cartels . The second
question is who else could be fighting this war if we dont have an effective army? What about the police ? The
problem is that Mexico doesnt have a national police force like Chile or
Colombia. We have county and state police. Each of the 2,500 counties and 32 states in
Mexico has its own police force, and they are the ones fighting the war on drugs. The
problem is that local policemen go through an identity crisis every day regarding who
they work for. Do they work for the drug cartels or the citizens of the country? They work for the drug
cartels and everybody in Mexico knows that. Clearly, you cant ask them to fight
the drug cartels because they are part of the drug cartels. Therefore,
Mexico has an army which is not ready to fight a war on drugs, and
a police force that is not willing to do so. The remaining alternative
is the United States, but that option is quite complicated.
Historically,
Mexico has always wanted U.S. support for law-enforcement efforts, and the United States has been willing to give us such
support, but
we want it on our terms, not on U.S. terms. And, since approximately the
the United States has placed a series of restrictions on
end of the Vietnam War,

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military aid that involve human rights provisions, military

supervision, and instruction, among others. That means that we cant get American aid
on our terms, and thus it has been very limited. Who then is fighting the war on drugs? We dont really know.
2) Theres no accountability for what ends the war and

how to rebuild.
--Powell Doctrine = outline for US involvement. It says you need to have a set
definition of victory; you need to have an overwhelming force, an exit
strategy, and national support.
Another problem the president and the government faced has to do
with the Powell Doctrine. During the Gulf War, General Colin Powell, then head of the U.S.
Joint Chiefs of Staff, outlined what came to be known as the Powell Doctrine for U.S. involvement in
conflicts abroad, and
it establishes several conditions: you need to have a
definition of victory, you need to have overwhelming force, you

need to have an exit strategy, and you need to have the support
and understanding of the people. If you apply the Powell doctrine
to Mexicos war on drugs, you will quickly notice that first, there is
no overwhelming force as a matter of fact, there is no force . Second,
there is no exit strategy, because there is no way to know whether
you have won the war on drugs or not. Third, there is no foreseeable
way out of this war. And fourth, you have public support for this
endeavor only as long as you are not affecting the daily lives of the
people, and even though the war on drugs continues to have the
support of most Mexicans, that support is quickly fading locally . If you
ask someone what he or she thinks about the army taking over Ciudad Juarez or Cancn, that person
would probably say that it is a good idea. But if you ask the people of Ciudad Juarez or Cancn whether
they liked the massacre last week in the penitentiary or whether they liked seeing the severed head of the
newly appointed chief of security displayed by the side of the road three weeks ago, they will say they are
not so happy about it.
3) Forty years of history proves US involvement doesnt

solve anything. There are structural domestic US reforms
that need to occur.
Everyone in Mexico knows that we cant win this war . The
government, acknowledging this, has begun to say that drug
trafficking and violence cant be solved until the United States does

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two things, knowing full well that those are impossible . One is
reducing the demand for drugs . It is well known that U.S. demand for drugs over the past 40
years has remained pretty much stable, although the types of drugs consumed have changed: marijuana was the drug of
the 1960s and 1970s, cocaine and crack were the drugs of the 1990s, and methamphetamine is the drug of the first
decade of the 21st century. However, the overall number of users has remained pretty much the same. I f
the
United States hasnt been able to reduce drug consumption in 40
years, its very unlikely that it will be able to do it now. The second
request to the U.S. government is to stop the traffic of weapons
from the United States to Mexico
because the Mexican authorities claim all of the
we only know with certainty

that about 18 percent of guns come from the United States, according to
Mexican and U.S. sources.1 The rest is surely coming from Central America , countries
violence and all of the killing is done with American guns. In fact,
of the former Soviet Union, and beyond. And as countries as diverse as Brazil, Paraguay, Somalia, and Sudan attest
all countries with a higher arms per capita than Mexico you dont need a border with
the United States to gain easy access to guns. Nevertheless, the possibilities of really limiting the sales of weapons in the
asking the United States to stop

arms trafficking from north to south is like asking Mexico to control
its border from south to north, whether it is for drugs, people, or anything else. Its not
going to happen.
United States is not imminent, to put it mildly. Moreover,

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A2 PDVSA
Alt causes to why PDVSA failsA- Oil strikes and brain drain from 2002-2003 which still
cripple the industry
Acc 12/9/13)
In December 2002, mid- and high-level managers, operational staff, and

shipping captains in PDVSA brought the company to a standstill in a
movement against Hugo Chavez. The economic effects of the strike were grave .
In the first quarter of 2003, the country's GDP contracted by 27 percent. Venezuela was forced
to import oil to meet domestic demand and unemployment increased by a third,
growing to 20.3 percent.43 When the strike eventually ended, Chavez replaced the
company's board of directors with political allies and merged the
company with the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, which assured the President would have a handson relationship with the national oil company. He then fired nearly 18,000 employees
in a wide-ranging move: Exploration and well engineers, human resources
staff, and members of finance, maintenance, and marketing.44 This
move would cause a "brain drain" in PDVSA for years to come . The
company suffered a "loss of human capital that was seen as the best
trained and most experienced staff of any oil company in a developing country."45
B- competition with growing Hydropower

Acc 12/9/13)
Venezuela gets 72.8 percent of its

domestic electricity generation from hydropower .48 Hydropower
provides many advantages, including clean and generally
competitive energy prices. However, relying so heavily on this source of electricity has
greatly hampered Venezuela. Climate change has caused prolonged droughts in
the region and brought Venezuela's dams to dangerously low levels .
Despite the country's massive reserves of oil,
Over the past few years the government has instituted rolling blackouts in order to conserve power. This
policy has hurt small and large businesses alike. On numerous occasions
PDVSA's oil
refineries have lost power and been forced to shut down. Even
temporary hiccups such as this can seriously hamper a national
economy that is so dependent on one good.

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C- failure of PDVSA to invest in its own production and

payroll programs
Acc 12/9/13)
One of the largest problems associated with PDVSA's social agenda

is that the company has failed to invest in its own future. Despite a massive
oil boom from 20042008 in which Venezuela exported nearly three billion barrels, PDVSA's debt
increased from $3.7 billion to $19 billion dollars. Between 20102011, operating costs rose from $11.8 billion to
$15.3 billion in the face of declining infrastructure.50 The total cost for each barrel has more than doubled, going from
PDVSA's debt profile is worrying

given upcoming maturing bonds and the need for multibillion dollars
of investments in the extra heavy crude Orinoco Belt to boost
national production in coming years."52 Debt aside, another sign of growing inefficiency has
been the rise of employees despite decreasing production. Since Chavez fired 18,000 employees in 2003, the
official payroll of the company has increased from 30,000 to 80,000 employees.53
However, during this time oil production has gone from 2.85 to 2.47 million barrels
$13 in 2001 to $29 in 2008.51 Fur- thermore, "analysts say
per day, a 13 percent decline.54
D Too many discounts in Venezuelan trade policy

Acc 12/9/13)
financial issue that plagues PDVSA is Venezuela's trade policy .

Nearly 300,000 barrels a day, well over 10 percent of total production, are sold to Caribbean
and Central American nations at a discount in order to secure
Another
political backing . These discounts, as well as a subsidy on domestic

gas that allows the fuel to be sold for six cents/gallon, have significantly blunted the growth of
the company's coffers.55 Venezuela will need to begin pumping heavy crude from the Orinoco Tar Sands in the coming
years if it wishes to maintain its current output. This will require billions of dollars in infrastructure investment and a great deal of technical
know- how, neither of which the company currently possesses, and it will need to look for abroad in an environment not entirely eager to
invest in Venezuela.
E- High shipping and transportation costs to Russia, China

and Central Asia
Acc 12/9/13)
has made it clear that he wishes to diversify oil exports and decrease the role
that the United States has as a trade partner, he has yet to come up with a serious
alternative. The Venezuelan President has repeatedly said that he wishes to increase oil trade with China,
but this appears an unrealistic venture. China has limited refinery capacity, limited
access to petroleum due to its proximity to Russia and Central Asia,
and brings with it prohibitively high transportation costs of moving
oil around the Strait of Magellan or Cape Horn.

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F High Oil Prices means lack of reserves.

Acc 12/9/13)
High oil prices actually threaten to hurt Venezuela's market share in

the global oil industry. These high prices allow for petroleum to be
produced from sources once considered financially prohibitive.
Canadian tar sands and Brazilian offshore pre-salt oil deposits were once
thought too costly to make exploration

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1NC
Status quo reforms solve
ONeil 12/12/13 (Shannon K. ONeil, senior fellow for Latin America
Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, BA from Yale University, an MA in
international relations, and a PhD in government from Harvard University ,
Mexicos Historic Energy Reform,
http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/12/12/mexicos-historic-energy-reform, Keerthi,
Acc 12/13/13)
Listening to the fireworks for the Virgen de Guadalupe last night from my hotel room in Mexico City,
one could have mistaken them for the tumult occurring at the same time in the House of
Representatives. Right before midnight, the representatives passed, by a two-thirds majority,
the principles of energy reform (following the Senates approval earlier
in the day). Today they hammered out the final details , making a historic
change to Mexicos energy sector, a political sacred cow, by
opening it up to the broader world of investment . The constitutional
reforms still need to be approved by seventeen of Mexicos thirty-two state Congresses, but with twentyfive PRI or PAN governors this seems very likely to occur smoothly . The reform
does many things: It establishes different types of possible
contracts : service contracts, profit sharing, production sharing, and licensing (where a firm would pay taxes and royalties
in exchange for exploration and drilling rights).
It allows companies to post reserves , though they must
specify that the oil and gas belongs to Mexico.
It creates a sovereign fund, the Mexican
Petroleum Fund , which will manage the countrys oil revenues. The Fund
will allocate the appropriate amount of money to cover the national budget and invest the rest in long term savings. The Bank of Mexico will oversee
the fund.
The reform calls for increased transparency and mechanisms
to reduce corruption. It also removes Pemex union members from

the state-owned companys board , reducing their role (and power). It
splits the remaining ten board members between five government appointees and five independent consultants. The changes
are profound, even if the reform stops short of giving private companies ownership over subsoil oil
(e.g. directly booking reserves). What happens now will largely depend on the secondary legislation
which is yet to be written (or at least introduced and passed). These
rules, for example, will determine

which oil and gas blocs will be developed and under what terms, and will be
presented next year. If implemented, energy experts predict that oil production
would steadily increase in the coming years, and natural gas (given
Mexicos significant reserves) could expand rapidly. This increase in production would
likely benefit the Mexican Treasury, as even though taxes collected might be lower, the base will surely be larger. But it will also
benefit the Mexican people, lowering consumer gas prices,
increasing stability of supply, and making Mexico a more attractive
place for foreign investment dollars.
Pemex cant overcome corruption

Global Post 5-17-13 (Global Post, Mexican daily: Pemex admits "serious" corruption, May 17th,
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/agencia-efe/130517/mexican-daily-pemex-admits-seriouscorruption)

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Petroleos Mexicanos admits that "serious" corruption exists in some areas of the
company and that contracting processes in particular have been plagued by "interference from
organized crime,"
a leading Mexican daily said Friday. In a front-page story, El Universal said Pemex representatives and members of the
Mexican Construction Industry Chamber drew that conclusion at a meeting in late April. Pemex
executives acknowledged that

corruption is fueled " by the elevated potential economic benefit of illegal acts, impunity and the
spaces opened up due to unnecessary flexibility ," the newspaper reported. El Universal's story was published just days
after rival daily Reforma reported that Pemex was suing former company executive Cesar Nava in the U.S. courts for his alleged involvement in a
conspiracy to defraud the oil giant. Nava, erstwhile chairman of Mexico's conservative National Action Party, has been named in briefs expanding
the $500 million lawsuit Pemex filed last December against Siemens AG and South Korea-based SK Engineering & Construction Co. for ostensibly
bribing Pemex executives, Reforma said. As Pemex's legal director in 2002, Nava intervened to stop the company from collecting $102.8 million
from Siemens and SK to compensate for contract violations in the overhaul of the Cadereyta refinery, according to the court documents cited by that
daily. The defendants obtained $182.4 million by systematically overcharging Pemex for work on the refinery, the lawsuit maintains. According
to El Universal, during the meeting with construction industry executives, Pemex officials said
there was "interference from organized crime" in the state oil monopoly's contracting processes.
That has led to "serious levels of corruption " within some Pemex segments, and company
executives acknowledge they have not been able to put a halt to that activity, in part because many
cases "have become lost in the courts."
Pemex is too state-owned it has no flexibility and has net-loss in profit.

Economist 13 (Aug 10, Unfixable Pemex, http://www.economist.com/news/business/21583253-even-ifgovernment-plucks-up-courage-reform-it-pemex-will-be-hard-fix-unfixable, Keerthi, Acc 11/22/13)
Its first problem is structural: it has never been treated as a profit-making company . Astonishingly for a
monopoly that drills every barrel of oil in Mexico at an average cost of less than $7, and sells it for around $100, it lost an accumulated
360 billion pesos, or $29 billion, in the five years to 2012 (despite a small profit last year). This is partly because
although its oil-and-gas-production side makes a fat profit, its refining business loses a fortune, and
its petrochemicals division is also loss-making. Worse, the government sucks out cash to compensate for the lack of tax
revenues it collects in the rest of the economy. Last year 55% of Pemexs revenues went in royalties and taxes. This perpetual
drain on its cashflow means its debt has soared to $60 billion. The hole in its pension reserve is a whopping $100 billion. Besides siphoning off its
profits ,
the government refuses to let it make its own decisions. Its boss is appointed by the
president, the energy minister chairs its board of directors, and the finance ministry vets its
budget, line by line. The board has no independent directors and lacks business expertise , says a
former chief executive. He notes, for example, that more than 20 years ago the board began benchmarking Pemexs refineries against international
peers, but they have remained at the bottom of the league even as parts of Mexicos manufacturing industry have become models of efficiency.

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2NC Squo solves

The bill reform that happened recently literally solves
everything:
A- allows foreign investment
Williams et al. 12/13/13 (Adam Williams, Eric Martin and Nacha Cattan,
Mexico Passes Oil Bill Seen Luring $20 Billion a Year,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-12/mexico-lower-house-passes-oiloverhaul-to-break-state-monopoly.html, Keerthi, Acc 12/13/13)
Mexicos Congress approved a bill to end a 75-year state oil
monopoly and generate as much as $20 billion in additional foreign investment a year. The
nations most significant economic reform since the North American
Free Trade Agreement secured the required two-thirds majority in a
353-134 lower-house vote yesterday. The proposal must be ratified by state assemblies, the majority of
The bill will change Mexicos

charter to allow companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron
Corp. (CVX) to develop the largest unexplored crude area after the Arctic Circle.
Supporters say the overhaul could propel Mexico into the top five crude
which are controlled by the alliance backing the reform.
exporting countries while opponents say it will funnel resource

wealth to foreign investors . The peso gained.
B solves economy
The reform will energize Mexicos economy , Carlos Capistran, chief Mexico
economist at Bank of America Corp., said in a telephone interview yesterday. Congress was able to pass a
Producers will be offered productionsharing contracts or licenses where they get to own the pumped oil
and will be allowed to log crude reserves for accounting purposes.
better-than-expected constitutional reform.
Photographer: Susana Gonzalez/Bloomberg Workers prepare drilling pipe on the Petroleos Mexicanos
The reform could boost foreign

investment by as much as $15 billion annually and potential
economic growth by half a percentage point , JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a Nov.
28 report. Capistran said the overhaul could bring an additional $20 billion
foreign direct investment as soon as 2015 and further strengthen
the peso as the market absorbs the news.
(Pemex) La Muralla IV deep sea... Read More
C- overall production (Oil and Nat Gas)

With reform there will undoubtedly be a spurt of production growth
as Mexico is a very rich hydrocarbon area both onshore and

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offshore, Ed Morse, the New York-based head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in a
phone interview. Realistically, it could double the amount of oil that Mexico
produces. Mexicos oil production has fallen 25 percent to 2.5
million barrels per day from a high of 3.3 million in 2004, according data from Pemex. Should
Mexican output reach 4 million barrels daily by 2025, it could surpass Canada to
become the worlds fifth-largest producer , given current production levels.
Natural gas production would almost double to as much as 10.4 billion
cubic feet by 2025 from current output of 5.7 billion feet, according to the bill. The initiative could push
Mexico to become one of the top-five crude exporting countries in the world and a natural gas exporter,
Morse said. Pena Nietos government forecasts the initiative will attract investment and spur production
that will boost Mexicos annual gross domestic product growth by 1 percentage point by 2018. The Finance
Ministry projects the economy will expand 1.3 percent this year, down from 3.9 percent in each of the past
two years and the least since the 2009 recession.
More ev
Fausset 12/11/13 (Richard Fausset, Mexico's Senate passes sweeping
oil industry reforms, http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wnmexico-senate-reform-oil-industry-20131211,0,6683381.story#axzz2nJHhiS6l,

Keerthi, Acc 12/13/13)
MEXICO CITYThe Mexican Senate has approved a sweeping reform of the countrys energy sector that would open the underperforming
state-run oil company to foreign investment a move that supporters say could boost a stagnant economy and bolster President Enrique
Pea Nieto's assertions that he is leading Mexico through a time of profound transformation. The vote to approve the bill came at 11:55 p.m.
Tuesday, after nine hours of debate on the Senate floor, and as leftist opponents, who argue that the reform amounts to selling the
Fatherland, used stones and hammers to beat furiously upon tall metal barricades surrounding the Senate building. Among other things, the
legislation would alter the Mexican constitution to allow major foreign oil companies to drill for oil and take a cut of the crude produced, as
opposed to simply sharing profits in such ventures, as Pea Nietos party had originally proposed in August. Such production sharing
arrangements are important to big oil companies because they often own their own refineries and tend to prefer the simplicity of taking oil
directly from the well-head to the refinery. But the idea of foreigners taking a cut of Mexican oil is a sensitive matter. The oil industry here
was nationalized in 1938 with great fanfare after what were perceived as exploitative practices by British and U.S. oil companies. Though
production has been declining in recent years, Mexicos abundant oil and gas resources remain a great source of national pride and a key
source of government funding: Pemex, as the national oil company is known, currently supplies about a third of the federal government's
income. The legislation will not change the part of the Mexican constitution that declares the nation to be the owner of subsurface oil and
gas. But Dolores Padierna, a senator with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution, noted on the Senate floor that with a productionsharing contract, at the mouth of the well, the private oil company will be the owner of a percentage of the production. Energy industry
experts have been surprised that the bill contains this and many other elements that could make private industry keen to jump back into the
Mexican oil game. Though Pea Nieto has overseen the passage of a number of reforms during his one year in office, some, like his education
and fiscal reform packages, have been criticized as overly watered-down by political bargaining. The energy bill that was approved by the
Senate incorporates numerous proposals first introduced by the conservative National Action Party. To become law, it must be approved by
Mexicos lower house of Congress, and then by the state legislatures. Pro-reform forces contend that foreign companies will be key to helping
Mexico reverse its declining production numbers. Two gigantic shallow-water oil wells are running dry, but the country needs outside expertise
and investment, experts say, to extract oil from more technically demanding deepwater wells and shale deposits. The bottom line is that its
the end of an era, really, if this goes through, said Tim Samples, a University of Georgia business professor who has been following the reform
effort closely. If this goes through, it will be a sea change for Mexicos energy industry.

File Title
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1NC
US agriculture strong now soybeans and wheat proves.
Dreibus 11/8/13 (Tony C. Dreibus, USDA data not as negative,
http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/usda-data-not-asnegative_9-ar35279, Keerthi, Acc 11/8/13)
The U.S. D epartment of A griculture raised its forecast for domestic corn and soybean
production this year in its first supply-and-demand report since
September. U.S. growers will produce 13.989 billion bushels of corn this
year on yields of 160.4 bushels per acre, the agency said Friday in its monthly crop report. That
would be the highest production of corn on record, surpassing the 13.1 billion bushel
harvest in 2009. November's figure was slightly below analysts' expectations of 14.022 billion bushels on yields of 159.43 bushels per acre, according to a Wall
Street Journal survey. The USDA's corn-production forecast was 1% higher than its previous
estimate . The USDA forecast soybean production will total 3.258 billion bushels this year on yields of 43 bushels per acre. Analysts had expected 3.225
billion bushels from a yield of 42.5 bushels per acre. The agency's November soybean estimate was 3% higher from its previous forecast. The U.S. is
the world's largest exporter of corn and second-largest shipper of
soybeans. Analysts are watching the crop-production report and the agency's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates closely because they are the
first figures released since September. Last month's reports were canceled due to the 16-day partial government shutdown that started Oct. 1. "Wet
weather across much of the corn belt affected harvest progress" in early
October, the USDA said in its report. "However, by the third week of the month , the crop began to make headway."
Good weather allowed producers to harvest 73% of the crop by Nov. 3, two percentage points
ahead of the five-year average, the USDA said. The agency also raised its estimates for the
amount of corn, soybeans and wheat stockpiles at the end of the
2013/2014 marketing year. Corn stocks are expected to total 1.887 billion bushels, the USDA said. That was lower than analyst expectations of 2.056 billion
bushels but slightly higher than the agency's September forecast. Harvested acres of soybeans are expected to total 170 million bushels, the USDA said, compared with
analysts' estimates of 183 million bushels.
Wheat stockpiles at the end of the marketing year will be 565 million bushels, the USDA said,
rise to 164.33 million metric tons, up from 151.42
compared with 527 million the analysts predicted. Meanwhile, the USDA said it expects global corn stockpiles to
million it forecast in September. Analysts expected 154.8 million metric tons.
Alt cause to ag collapseBee shortages prevent

pollination
Grossman 13
(Elizabeth, Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Declining Bee
Populations Pose
A Threat to Global Agriculture pg online at
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/declining_bee_populations_pose_a_threat_to_global_agriculture/2645///sd)
One of every three bites of
food eaten worldwide depends on pollinators,
especially bees, for a successful harvest . And in the past several months, a scramble in
Californias almond groves has given the world a taste of what may lie in store for food production if the widespread
beekeepers, primarily in
have been reporting annual hive losses of 30
percent or higher, substantially more than is considered normal or sustainable. But this winter,
many U.S. beekeepers experienced losses of 40 to 50 percent or more,
and still puzzling decimation of bee colonies continues. For much of the past 10 years,
the United States and Europe,
just as commercial bee operations prepared to transport their hives for the countrys largest pollinator event: the
Californias almond orchards typically

1.6 million domesticated bee colonies to pollinate the flowering
trees and produce what has become the states largest overseas agricultural
export. But given the widespread bee losses to so-called colony
collapse disorder this winter, Californias almond growers were able
to pollinate their crop only through an intense, nationwide push to cobble
fertilizing of Californias almond trees. Spread across 800,000 acres,
require

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Keerthi Gondi
together the In the long run, if we don't find some answers, we could lose a lot of bees, says one expert. necessary
number of healthy bee colonies. Other crops dont need as many bees as the California almond orchards do, so shortages
are not yet apparent, but if trends continue, there will be, said Tim Tucker, vice-president of the American Beekeeping
Federation and owner of Tuckerbees Honey in Kansas, which lost 50 percent of its hives this past winter. Current
[bee] losses are not sustainable. The trend is down, as is the quality
of bees. In the long run, if we dont find some answers, and the vigor continues to decline, we could lose a lot of
bees. The gravity of the situation was underscored on Monday, when the European Commission (EC) said it intended to
impose a two-year ban on a class of pesticides known as neonicotinoids, now the worlds most widely used type of
Neonicotinoids are one of the leading suspected causes of

colony collapse disorder, and the European Commission announced its controversial decision three
months after the European Food Safety Agency concluded that the pesticides represented a high
acute risk to honeybees and other pollinators. The EC action will restrict the use of
insecticide.
three major neonicitinoids on seeds and plants attractive to bees, as well as grains, beginning December 1. I pledge to
bees, which are so vital to our ecosystem and

contribute over 22 billion Euros [$29 billion] annually to European agriculture, are protected,
said European Union Health Commissioner Tonio Borg. The EC action comes as scientists and regulators have
grown increasingly concerned about the impact of colony collapse
disorder on the worlds food supply, given that the majority of the
my utmost to ensure that our
planets 100 most important food crops depend on insect

pollination . A recent international study of 41 crop systems on six continents showed that healthy
populations of wild bees are key to successful yields of crops
ranging from pumpkins to grapefruit. Relying solely on domesticated honeybees could
ultimately put those crops at risk, scientists say. Wild bees also have been declining in many places. No one investigating
the issue is suggesting that neonicotinoids are the sole cause of current bee declines. Tucker, other beekeepers, and
entomologists say that the cause of colony collapse disorder is likely a combination of factors that includes the
widespread use of pesticides and fungicides, as well as the spread of viral pathogens and parasitic mites in beehives.
While mites and diseases have long been known to cause significant declines in domesticated bee populations, no single
pathogen or parasite, say entomologists, appears to sufficiently explain the current rate of hive collapse. A recent study
that found unprecedented levels of agricultural pesticides some at toxic levels in honeybee colonies is prompting
entomologists to look more closely at the role of neonicotinoids in current bee declines. No one is suggesting that
neonicotinoids are the sole cause of current bee declines. Some studies have indicated that neonicotinoids can lead to a
sharp decline in queen bees in colonies and can also interfere with the ability of bees to navigate back to their hives.
James Frazier, a professor of entomology at Pennsylvania State University, said more research needs to be conducted into
whether neonicotinoids, particularly in combination with other pesticides, may suppress the immune system of bees at
sub-lethal levels, enabling diseases to take hold. This is uncharted territory, said Purdue University associate professor
of entomology Christian Krupke. Weve never done pest management like this before. While not downplaying
neonicotinoids as a potential culprit, Eric Mussen, an apiculturiust at the University of California, Davis, noted that the
case against these pesticides is not clear-cut. For example, honeybees are apparently doing fine in Australia, where
neonicotinoids are widely used and varroa mites are not a problem. Neonicotinoid use is common in Canada, but colony
Honeybees are
brought in to pollinate onion crops at a California farm. In the U.S., several
collapse disorder is not significantly affecting hives there. University of California
national environmental advocacy organizations and commercial beekeepers filed suit in March against the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for its conditional registration of certain neonicotinoids, contending that the
agency did not properly ensure environmental health protections, particularly with respect to pollinators. The EPA is now
reviewing its registration of neonicotinoids and has accelerated the review schedule due to uncertainties about these
pesticides and their potential effects on bees. The agency said in an email that it is working with beekeepers, growers,
pesticide manufacturers, and others to improve pesticide use, labeling, and management practices to protect bees and to
thoroughly evaluate the effects of pesticides on honeybees and other pollinators. As part of these efforts, the EPA is
working with pesticide and agricultural equipment manufacturers to reduce the release of neonicotinoid-contaminated
dust during planting a time when commercial bees are likely to encounter the insecticide. In the U.S., neonicotinoids
are currently used on about 95 percent of corn and canola crops; the majority of cotton, sorghum, and sugar beets; and
about half of all soybeans. Theyre also used on the vast majority of fruit and vegetable crops, including apples, cherries,
peaches, oranges, berries, leafy greens, tomatoes, and potatoes. Neonicotinoids are also applied to cereal grains, rice,
nuts, and wine grapes. Charles Benbrook, research professor at Washington State Universitys Center for Sustaining
Agriculture and Natural Resources, has estimated that neonicotinoids are used on approximately 75 percent of the acres
devoted to these crops in the U.S. They are also widely used on landscaping plants and urban trees and in numerous
There is no
place to go hide, says New York beekeeper Jim Doan, a director of the American
Beekeeping Federation. The outlook is not good.
home garden pest-control products all in places frequented by bees, domesticated and wild.

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2NC Alt Cause Bees
Alt cause declining honeybee populations.

--31% of bees died over the winter
--farms really reliant. Bees=$20 billion to agriculture industry.
Green 13 (Miranda Green, May 8 2013, Declining bee populations may lead to significant
agricultural losses in U.S., http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/08/declining-bee-populationsmay-lead-to-significant-agricultural-losses-in-u-s.html, Keerthi, Acc 11/8/13)
Talk about a buzzkill . U.S. honey bee populations are continuing to

dwindle and it could have drastic effects on agriculture The Wall Street Journal
reports. A study released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture found that 31 percent of bee colonies
died this past winterabout 800,000 bees. A honey bee is seen at the J & P Apiary on April 10, 2013 in Homestead,
Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty) The report is the latest in a serious of mass honey bee
deaths reported over the past several years. A decline was first reported by beekeepers in
2006 and is attributed to multiple factors such as parasites, mal-nutrition, disease and parasites. A separate Department of Agriculture study
released last week concluded that scientists could find no single cause for bee deaths. While the declining bee populations might be good
news for those who live in fear of stinging insects, its actually bad news. After all,
bees play a vital role in food
production. The loss of honey bees across the country could mean
dramatic changes to crops and the work of farmers. Almond farms in California are especially
reliant on bee pollination. The Agriculture Department estimates that insect-pollination directly
contributes $20 billion to the U.S. economy annually. The same study says that if indirect products such as milk and
beef, which are created by cows that feed on crops that in turn rely on pollination, were to be included, bees economic contribution would rise
The honey yield is also diminishing
to $40 billion.
, with bees producing less honey than they have in
previous years, according to USDA data. The Agriculture Department estimates that insect-pollination directly contributes $20 billion to the
U.S. economy annually.

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EU Relations Impacts

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1AC
The transatlantic partnership is at a crossroads- economic
improvements is the only way to effective utilize relations
and overcome all alternate causes.
Mix 13 (Derek E., FAS Analyst in European Affairs and researcher at the
Congressional Research Service, 3/20/13, The United States and Europe:
Current Issues, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22163.pdf, Accessed
8/12/13, Keerthi)
Polls show that President Obama remains popular in Europe, and European perceptions of U.S. foreign policy have improved significantly
The overall tone of transatlantic

relations has been mostly positive and constructive over the past four years. In
attempting to deal jointly with the daunting list of challenges they
face, however, both sides have also encountered frustrations and
reality checks in seeking to achieve strong economic recovery, trying to
compared to the years of the George W. Bush Administration.3
marshal resources for the mission in Afghanistan, or attempting to agree on a new international climate change treaty, to name but three
Such examples lead some observers to caution against the

dangers of exaggerated expectations, warning that each side should
be realistic and reasonable about what it can expect from the other.
In any case, U.S.-European agreement and cooperation may often be a
prerequisite for effectively addressing global problems, but it is not necessarily sufficient on its own. Questions
about the future relevance of the transatlantic relationship have
received increased attention in recent years. Some observers see an emergent trend in which a
examples.
more multipolar world, signaled by the advent of the G-20 and the rise of the BRICs, foretells a future of declining Euro-Atlantic influence.4
some Europeans and analysts on both sides of the Atlantic

believe that with much of U.S. attention centered on Asia and the
Middle East, the United States is consequently pulling back from a
Europe that is no longer a central preoccupation. Since the Obama Administration
announced its re-balancing of U.S. foreign policy toward a greater focus on Asia, many in Europe have been
wondering where the transatlantic relationship stands today and where it will
Additionally,
wind up in the years to come. Some observers assert that the relationship is an increasingly utilitarian one, based more on function and less
on sentiment. In other words, U.S. interest in Congressional Research Service 2 The United States and Europe: Current Issues Europe is
now mainly driven by whether Europe can be an effective partner in addressing common threats and concerns. Those of this view worry that
perceptions of an economically stagnant Europe,

problems and offering declining military capabilities,
over the longer term.
preoccupied with its own internal
may lead to weaker U.S.-European ties
On the other hand, in a speech at the 2013 Munich Security Conference, Vice President Biden
stated, ... President Obama and I continue to believe that Europe is the cornerstone of our engagement with the rest of the world and is the
catalyst for our global cooperation.5 Many analysts maintain that Europe is, firstly, an important U.S. ally precisely because the substance of
the relationship is deep and meaningful. Examples of close and unique U.S.-European cooperation are not lacking; many analysts cite Europes
contributions to operations in Afghanistan, joint efforts to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia, the 2011 NATO operation against the forces
of Muammar al-Gadhafi in Libya, the expansion of EU sanctions on Iran, or the dimensions of the transatlantic trade and investment
relationship as proof of the continuing and deep vitality of the transatlantic partnership. Less tangibly, however, many analysts also assert that
Europe will continue to matter to the United States because, if nothing else, common values, shared history, and compatible worldviews still
matter, too. Nevertheless, many observers agree that
if Europe is to maintain itself as a central
global actor and a close U.S. partner over the longer term, it needs
to urgently re-discover ways to increase economic dynamism and
competitiveness ; commit to deeper initiatives for pooling defense resources in order to gain capabilities and efficiency;
and emphasize the further development of soft power strategies that
project influence through the attractiveness of European political, cultural, and economic values. Some also assert that it is essential for
Europe to increasingly speak and act as one on foreign policy and security issues if it is to maintain global influence. On many such issues,
however, the EU and its member states continue to find consensus difficult to reach. While many U.S. officials support the development of a
more robust and coherent EU foreign and security policy, there also remain some reservations in the United States about a future scenario in
which the EU is more unified and assertive in these areas, including with respect to the potential implications for NATO.

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TTIP is key to relations:

A) Overcomes the failures of transatlantic military policy
and NATO.
Lucas 13 (Edward, Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Center for European Policy
Analysis, graduate of the London School of Economics, Partnership,

Relationship or Shipwreck? The Unsolved Questions of the TTIP, Center for
European Policy Analysis, http://www.cepa.org/content/partnershiprelationship-or-shipwreck-unsolved-questions-ttip, Accessed 8/12/13, Keerthi)
Foreign policy is fun until you start asking who pays the bills . The
transatlantic relationship has been the mainstay of Central European
and Baltic security for the past 20 years. But it relied on the willingness of U.S. taxpayers to indulge
European free riders. That is coming to an end. America is out of cash, and beset by new security worries in the Asia-
It is unclear why the defense and security of the European

Union (population 504 million and GDP $17 trillion) should, in effect, be subsidized by the
United States (population 316 million and GDP $16 trillion). Without a large and unlikely
increase in European defense spending, that imbalance spells the
end of NATO as the central transatlantic tie. But trade and
investment ties could be a substitute. The sums involved are already
huge. The largest and most important economic relationship in the
world is between the United States and the EU , with daily trade flows of around $2.7
Pacific region.
billion. EU investment in the United States is eight times the amount of European investment in India and China combined.
The total stock of investment in both directions is over $3.7 trillion (for comparison, Polands GDP in 2012 was just under
$530 billion). The gains are potentially great. The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) would
create the largest single market in the world, encompassing 830 million consumers and one-third of global trade. It would
add a percentage point to world economic output, with most of the gains in the United States and the EU about $700 to
the annual income of the average EU household, and $840 to its American counterpart.
B) Provides perception of political engagement and

involvement.
Lucas 13 (Edward, Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Center for European Policy
Analysis, graduate of the London School of Economics, Partnership,

Relationship or Shipwreck? The Unsolved Questions of the TTIP, Center for
European Policy Analysis, http://www.cepa.org/content/partnershiprelationship-or-shipwreck-unsolved-questions-ttip, Accessed 8/12/13, Keerthi)
Striking a deal on TTIP would be a huge sign of political maturity and
health in both Brussels and Washington. Getting the necessary
measures through Congress would show that the Obama Administration
still has the ability to get things done, and that Americas political
divide is not as disabling as it sometimes seems. For Brussels, it
would show that the EU is growing a political personality to match
its economic clout. If you can strike a deal with America, then you can do so with anyone . It
would be a welcome sign
to Euro skeptic Britain that staying in the EU is desirable. It would
show the member states that the Commission is still in the driving seat. And by nudging up economic
growth,
it might preserve political and social peace in the most

vulnerable economies of the Euro-zone thus, perhaps, saving the
single currency.

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C) Mutual economic interest and financial security for

Europe.
Lucas 13 (Edward, Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, graduate of the
London School of Economics, Partnership, Relationship or Shipwreck? The Unsolved Questions of the
TTIP, Center for European Policy Analysis, http://www.cepa.org/content/partnership-relationship-orshipwreck-unsolved-questions-ttip, Accessed 8/12/13, Keerthi, acronyms: CEE- Central and Eastern Europe,
NSA=National Security Agency, ACTA- Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, NATO- North Atlantic Treaty
Organization)
Perhaps
most importantly, the TTIP would reboot the transatlantic
relationship on the new basis of mutual economic interest , rather

than relying on the old one of military burden-sharing and solidarity. It
would, in effect, reinvent the West especially if the United States can also reach a deal on a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). All
this will be particularly important for the countries of Central and
Eastern Europe (CEE). It is not so much the potential increase in their exports (the big leap there came when they joined the EU). The
real gain is in the wider security that comes from having America rerooted in Europe. The TTIP dilutes the power of protectionist
countries such as France, and entrenches the ascendancy of free-trading
nations such as the Dutch, British, Swedes and Germans. If it goes through, it will be a further sign
that the center of political gravity in Europe has shifted north (and to some extent,
east). But as with all free trade deals, the gains from TTIP are big , distant and
diffuse. The costs are smaller , but come instantly and in a concentrated
form. Lobbies and vested interests on each side have a lot to lose. The issues are easy to caricature. Will Americans really accept European cheese, with its nasty
strong taste and abundant bacteria? Will Europeans accept hormone-treated beef, or chlorine-washed chicken? The answer will come in detailed (read: mind-numbing)
the
countries have a lot to gain.
negotiations about subsidies, product controls and tariffs. On this issue,

CEE
Both sides
should be blushing about the costs they impose on their taxpayers and consumers in order to pamper farm lobbies. But the CEE countries in particular are not great
beneficiaries of the existing EU regime. If TTIP speeds its erosion, that will mean less EU money wasted on West European farmers and more available for other projects,
of a less wasteful and market-distorting kind. One sticking point will be GMOs (food based on genetically-modified organisms). Here some CEE countries have been
shamefully open to lobbying from the superstitious anti-science lobby. The second big basket of contentious issues centers around electronic information. European
countries want to protect their audio-visual industries from American competition, while disliking the tough copyright rules beloved by the U.S. entertainment industry.
They also take a far tougher stance on data protection and privacy. The CEE countries are divided on this. As instinctive Atlanticists, they do not share the French and
German left-wing view that the NSA is a global villain. But with recent experience of totalitarian rule they are highly suspicious of all forms of surveillance, and particularly
the prospect of a digital panopticon. They are not great believers in copyright law their loyalty to America was severely tested by the push for the ACTA treaty on
intellectual property. On the other hand, unlike France, they do not have large native film or entertainment industries that depend on government subsidy. Similarly, with
regard to high-tech engineering (aircraft and defense equipment) the CEE countries, without much in the way of domestic industry to protect, have a lot to gain from TTIP.
They might even benefit from new American investments in Europe. And they will certainly benefit from a wider choice and lower prices. They may also feel, when military
equipment is concerned, that buying American is good for NATO solidarity. The next component of TTIP is services. Here the CEE countries are unambiguous supporters
of liberalization. They have been pushing for the EU to complete its own single market in services, but have been held up by professional lobbies and cartels (Italian
CEE countries want the TTIP as they should they should

have the most to gain if it
succeeds, and the most to lose if it fails. They should take the negotiations as a chance to show themselves as
lawyers and the like). A big push from across the Atlantic will be hugely welcome.
If the
make it their top political, diplomatic and economic priority in the coming year. They
team players good Europeans and good Atlanticists. Clearly they cannot please everyone all the time, but on issues where common sense suggests the American side is
likely to make concessions (such as on digital copyright rules and data) they should push the EU to be tough. On issues where Europe has to give ground (services
The TTIP will never sound as

attractive as NATO. It will never have an Article 5, or a heroic, romantic narrative that stretches from the Normandy Beaches to the Berlin Wall.
But it could pay the bills for the future of the wider transatlantic alliance. The future, without it, looks bleak for
Europe and particularly so for the continents smaller, poorer and
weaker countries.
liberalization and GM food) they should be encouraging Brussels to back down.
The Transatlantic Partnership is key to resolve every

existential risk and threat.
*Specifically solves economy, trade, terrorism, proliferation, energy security,
rogue states, democracy, human rights, free trade/capitalism, relations with
other nations like China, India, and Turkey, Balkan/Central Asian stability,
Middle East stability, humanitarian aide, Africa development, diplomacy
8/12/13, Keerthi)

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Common values, overlapping interests, and shared goals are the

foundation of what is often described as the transatlantic
partnership between the United States and Europe. Many observers stress
that in terms of security and prosperity the United States and Europe
have grown increasingly interdependent. Both sides of the Atlantic
face a common set of challenges, including economic concerns,
terrorism, weapons proliferation, energy security, and the
destabilizing effects of failing and rogue states. Both sides are
proponents of democracy, open societies, human rights, and free
markets. Supporters of close U.S.-European cooperation argue that neither the United
States nor Europe can adequately address the wide array of global
concerns alone, and that the track record shows the two sides can accomplish much more when
they work together. The United States and Europe also share a huge and
mutually beneficial trade and investment relationship. This report
summarizes a selection of broad issues in which the transatlantic relationship and U.S.-European
A full survey of global issues that are

important for U.S. and European interests would also include
relations with countries such as China, India, and Turkey; concerns
about stability in the Balkans and the countries of the former Soviet
Union; the Middle East peace process; development assistance and
humanitarian aid to the countries of Africa and elsewhere in the
developing world; and many more.
cooperation play an important role.

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EU Relations Afghanistan Add-On

Relations are key to Afghan stability.
8/12/13, Keerthi)
Over the past several years, many analysts have considered
Afghanistan the most urgent and important international security
issue for the transatlantic alliance. Afghanistan has been a focal
point for transatlantic and international cooperation : although troop
drawdowns are proceeding, as of early December 2012 the NATO-led International Security Assistance
Force (ISAF)
still consisted of over 102,000 troops from 49 countries, including all

The prolonged commitment of European countries to
maintaining their ISAF contributions has been an important tonesetter in transatlantic relations. The Afghanistan mission is now is
the midst of a final transition period in which ISAF seeks to transfer full responsibility
28 members of NATO.22
for security to Afghan leadership, with Afghan forces leading in all functions and operations by the end of
2014. This transition process also defines the timetable for withdrawing the vast majority of NATO forces
Considerable segments of the public in many European

countries have never been convinced of the need for their countrys
participation in Afghanistan, and many national governments have
been eager for the transition timeline to proceed and stay on track.
In any case, however, most analysts agree that Afghanistan will most likely
need some level of direct security assistance after 2014. Under the
Enduring Partnership agreement signed at the 2010 NATO Summit, NATO will undertake a
follow-on mission to support the capacity-building of Afghan
forces.23 European countries including France, Italy, and the United Kingdom have also signed bilateral
from the country.
partnership agreements with Afghanistan that outline military training and economic development
commitments beyond 2014. Nevertheless, given Europes economic difficulties and the sense of
Afghanistan fatigue felt by many Europeans, the depth of the overall European commitment after the
2014 withdrawal date is uncertain.
Afghan instability risks intervention by outside powers

leading to nuclear war
Cronin, 2013, Washington Quarterly, Thinking Long on Afghanistan: Could it be Neutralized?
Winter, Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University; Audrey Kurth,
http://csis.org/files/publication/TWQ_13Winter_Cronin.pdf
the question is whether

the United States will be ahead of the curve or behind it. Under current
circumstances, key actions within Afghanistan by any one state are
perceived to have a deleterious effect on the interests of other
competing states, so the only feasible solution is to discourage all of
them from interfering in a neutralized state. As the United States draws down
over the next two years, yielding to regional anarchy would be irresponsible.
Allowing neighbors to rely on bilateral measures, jockey for relative position, and pursue
conflicting national interests without regard for dangerous regional
dynamics will result in a repeat of the pattern that has played out in
Afghanistan for the past thirty years/except this time the outcome
could be not just terrorism but nuclear war.
With ISAF withdrawal inevitable, a sea change is already underway:

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<IF YOU HAVE TIME>
Afghanistan instability will destabilize Pakistanrisking

nuclear war with India
Cronin, 2013, Washington Quarterly, Thinking Long on Afghanistan: Could it be Neutralized?
Winter, Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University; Audrey Kurth,
http://csis.org/files/publication/TWQ_13Winter_Cronin.pdf
Pakistan poses the greatest obstacle to

neutralization, and yet would benefit most from it. Afghanistan would severely undermine
Pakistans government if it again became a safe haven for the ISIs Islamist project. ISI-/trained or ISI-/supported Taliban who
currently attack American troops might turn their attention toward assassinating Pakistani government
officials, security personnel, and moderate reformers, or worse, toward triggering a large-/scale, potentially nuclear
war with India over Kashmir. Pakistan needs a stable government in
Kabul that is not antagonistic to Pakistan and does not allow Afghan
territory to be used against it; Pakistan also wants a settlement that does not spread Pashtun nationalism and instability in
Pakistan. On the first point, the Pakistanis fear that India will gain strategic access and force them into a two-/front war. The best way to
reassure Pakistan is to neutralize Afghanistan in such a way that no military assistance or alliance
with India is possible. On the second, Pakistans government worries about the future of
the Pashtuns, especially considering pressure for the secession of Pashtunistan on both sides of the Durand line between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Well into preparations for post-/ISAF Afghanistan,
A guarantee of territorial integrity would mean that any efforts to break up Afghanistan would be met with a multilateral response. For Pakistan, the best buffer is a
territorially secure, independent state that is proxy to no one.
Indo-Pakistan nuclear war causes global extinction

Robock and Toon, 2010, Scientific American, January, Alan robock is professor of
climatology at rutgers university and associate director of the schools center for environmental Prediction,
where he studies many aspects of climate change. he is a fellow of the American meteorological Society
and a participant in the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. owen Brian Toon is chair of the
department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the university of colorado at Boulder and a fellow of
the laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics there. he is a fellow of the American meteorological
Society and the American geophysical union.; Alan, Owen Brian, p.
http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010.pd
smaller, regional nuclear wars could create a similar global catastrophe. New analyses reveal that a
conflict between India and Pakistan, for example, in which 100 nuclear
bombs were dropped on cities and industrial areas only 0.4
percent of the worlds more than 25,000 warheadswould produce
enough smoke to cripple global agriculture. A regional war could
cause widespread loss of life even in countries far away from the
conflict. Regional War Threatens the World By deploying modern computers and modern
climate models, the two of us and our colleagues have shown that not only were the ideas of the 1980s correct but the effects would last for at
Why discuss this topic now that the cold war has ended? Because as other nations continue to acquire nuclear weapons,
least 10 years, much longer than previously thought. And by doing calculations that assess decades of time, only now possible with fast, current computers, and by
smoke from even a

regional war would be heated and lofted by the sun and remain
suspended in the upper atmosphere for years, continuing to block
sunlight and to cool the earth. India and Pakistan, which together have more than 100 nuclear
weapons, may be the most worrisome adversaries capable of a regional
nuclear conflict today. But other countries besides the U.S. and Russia (which have thousands) are well endowed: China, France and the
including in our calculations the oceans and the entire atmosphere also only now possiblewe have found that the
U.K. have hundreds of nuclear warheads; Israel has more than 80, North Korea has about 10 and Iran may well be trying to make its own. In 2004 this situation prompted
one of us (Toon) and later Rich Turco of the University of California, Los Angeles, both veterans of the 1980s investigations, to begin evaluating what the global environmental effects of a regional nuclear war would be and to take as our test case an engagement between India and Pakistan. The latest estimates by David Albright of
the Institute for Science and International Security and by Robert S. Norris of the Natural Resourc- es Defense Council are that India has 50 to 60 assembled weapons (with
Both countries continue to increase their

arsenals. In- dian and Pakistani nuclear weapons tests indicate that the yield of the warheads would be similar to the 15-kiloton explosive yield (equivalent
to 15,000 tons of TNT) of the bomb the U.S. used on Hiroshima. Toon and Turco, along with Charles Bardeen, now at the National Center for
Atmospheric Re- search, modeled what would happen if 50 Hiro- shima-size bombs
were dropped across the highest population-density targets in
enough plutonium for 100) and that Pakistan has 60 weapons.

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Pakistan and if 50 similar bombs were also dropped across In- dia. Some
people maintain that nuclear weapons would be used in only a measured way. But in the wake of chaos, fear and
broken communications that would occur once a nuclear war began,
we doubt leaders would limit attacks in any rational manner . This likelihood is
particularly true for Pakistan, which is small and could be quickly overrun in a conventional conflict. Peter R. La- voy of the Naval Postgraduate School, for example, has
analyzed the ways in which a conflict between India and Pakistan might occur and argues that Pakistan could face a decision to use all its nuclear arsenal quickly before
India swamps its military bases with traditional forces. Obviously, we hope the number of nuclear targets in any future war will be zero, but policy makers and voters
more than 20 million people in the two

countries could die from the blasts, fires and radioactivity a horrible slaughter. But the investigators were shocked
to discover that a tremendous amount of smoke would be generated, given the megacities in the two countries, assuming each fire would burn the same area
should know what is possible. Toon and Turco found that
that actually did burn in Hiroshima and assuming an amount of burnable material per person based on various studies. They calculated that the 50 bombs exploded in
Pakistan would produce three teragrams of smoke, and the 50 bombs hitting India would generate four (one teragram equals a million metric tons). Satellite observations
can be lofted up through the troposphere (the bottom layer of

and sometimes then into the lower stratosphere
of actual forest fires have shown that smoke
the atmosphere)
(the layer just above, extending
to about 30 miles). Toon and Turco also did some back of the en- velope calculations of the possible climate impact of the smoke should it enter the stratosphere. The
large magnitude of such effects made them realize they needed help from a climate modeler. It turned out that one of us (Robock) was already working with Luke Oman,
now at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, who was finishing his Ph.D. at Rutgers University on the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions, and with Georgiy L.
Stenchikov, also at Rutgers and an author of the first Russian work on nuclear winter. They developed a climate model that could be used fairly easily for the nuclear blast
calculations. Robock and his colleagues, being conservative, put five teragrams of smoke into their modeled upper troposphere over India and Pakistan on an
winds would blow the smoke around the world and

how the smoke particles would settle out from the atmosphere. The
smoke covered all the continents within two weeks. The black, sooty
smoke absorbed sunlight, warmed and rose into the stratosphere.
Rain never falls there, so the air is never cleansed by precipitation; parimaginary May 15. The model calculated how
ticles very slowly settle out by falling, with air resisting them. Soot particles are small, with an average diameter of only 0.1 micron (m), and so drift down very slowly.
They also rise during the daytime as they are heated by the sun, repeatedly delaying their elimination. The calculations showed that the smoke would reach far higher
into the upper stratosphere than the sulfate particles that are produced by episodic volcanic eruptions. Sulfate particles are transparent and absorb much less sunlight
smoke from nuclear

fires would last a decade. Killing Frosts in Summer The climatic response to the smoke was surprising. Sunlight
was immediately reduced, cooling the planet to temperatures lower
than any experienced for the past 1,000 years. The global average cooling, of about 1.25 degrees
than soot and are also bigger, typically 0.5 m. The volcanic particles remain airborne for about two years, but
Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), lasted for several years, and even after 10 years the temperature was still 0.5 degree C colder than normal. The models also showed a 10
Precipitation, river flow and soil moisture all

decreased because blocking sunlight reduces evaporation and weakens the hydrologic cycle. Drought was largely concentrated in the lower latitudes,
percent reduction in precipitation worldwide.
however, because global cooling would retard the Hadley air circulation pattern in the tropics, which produces a large fraction of global precipitation. In critical areas
rainfall dropped by as much as 40 percent. The cooling

might not seem like much, but even a small dip can cause severe consequences.
Cooling and diminished sunlight would, for example, shorten growing seasons in the
midlati- tudes. More insight into the effects of cooling came from analyses of the aftermaths of massive volcanic eruptions. Every once in a while such
such as the Asian monsoon regions,
eruptions produce temporary cooling for a year or two. The largest of the past 500 years, the 1815 Tambora eruption in Indonesia, blotted the sun and produced global
cooling of about 0.5 degree C for a year; 1816 became known as The Year without a Summer or Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death. In New England, although the
average summer temperature was lowered only a few degrees, crop-killing frosts occurred in every month. After the first frost, farmers re- planted crops, only to see them
killed by the next frost. The price of grain skyrocketed, the price of livestock plummeted as farmers sold the animals they could not feed, and a mass migration began from
New England to the Midwest, as people followed reports of fertile land there. In Europe the weather was so cold and gloomy that the stock market collapsed, widespread
famines occurred and 18-year-old Mary Shelley was inspired to write Frankenstein. Certain strains of crops, such as winter wheat, can withstand lower temperatures, but
a lack of sunlight inhibits their ability to grow. In our scenario, daylight would filter through the high smoky haze, but on the ground every day would seem to be fully
overcast. Agronomists and farmers could not develop the necessary seeds or adjust agricultural practices for the radically different conditions unless they knew ahead of
extensive ozone depletion would result

as the smoke heated the stratosphere; reactions that create and
destroy ozone are temperature-dependent. Michael J. Mills of the University of Colo- rado at Boulder ran a completely separate climate model from
time what to expect. In addition to the cooling, drying and darkness,
Robocks but found similar results for smoke lofting and stratospheric temperature changes. He concluded that although surface temperatures would cool by a small
This heating, in turn,

would modify winds in the stratosphere, which would carry ozonedestroying nitrogen oxides into its upper reaches. Together the high temperatures and nitrogen
oxides would reduce ozone to the same dangerous levels we now experience below the ozone hole above Antarctica every spring. Ultra- violet
radiation on the ground would increase significantly because of the diminished ozone. Less
amount, the stratosphere would be heated by more than 50 degrees C, because the black smoke particles absorb sunlight.
sunlight and precipitation, cold spells, shorter growing seasons and more ultraviolet radiation would all reduce or eliminate agricultural production. Notably, cooling and
ozone loss would be most profound in middle and high latitudes in both hemispheres, whereas precipitation declines would be greatest in the tropics. The specific
damage inflicted by each of these environmental changes would depend on particular crops, soils, agricultural practices and regional weather patterns, and no
feeding the growing

human population depends on transferring food across the globe to
make up for regional farming deficiencies caused by drought and
seasonal weather changes. The total amount of grain stored on the planet today would feed the earths population for only about
researchers have completed detailed analyses of such agricultural responses. Even in normal times, however,
two months [see Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civiliza- tion? by Lester R. Brown; Scientific Ameri- can, May]. Most cities and countries have stock- piled food
supplies for just a very short period, and food shortages (as well as rising prices) have increased in recent years
. A nuclear war could

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trigger declines in yield nearly everywhere at once, and a worldwide panic could bring the
global agricultural trading system to a halt, with severe shortages in many places. Around one billion people worldwide who
now live on marginal food supplies would be directly threatened with starvation by a nuclear war
between India and Paki- stan or between other regional nuclear powers.

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Afghan Instability UQ
1) Their ev is horrible and assumes US involvement--drawout of US forces probably means the area will
become more stable.
2) Afghanistan stable now but regional actors are key to
prevent fall-back. (also says Taliban wont come-back).
Vershbow, 2012, (Alexander, NATO DSG Ambassador, 11/12, Today the
Taliban are weak, scattered, and demoralized, says NATO DSG Vershbow
http://www.diplonews.com/feeds/free/12_November_2012_8.php, DOAL
6/16/13
It is a great pleasure to be with you today, and to share the NATO perspective with such distinguished
panel members. I look forward to profiting from their views, as well as from yours. I feel a special
attachment to the Central Asia region, in part because I began my career as a lowly Second Secretary at
the US Embassy in Moscow. I was there when the Soviet Unions invasion of Afghanistan rocked its
relationship with the West. When the Soviets withdrew in 1989, the logic of the Cold War led us to believe
that we had won. The fall of the Berlin Wall strengthened that belief. As all eyes focused on events in
Europe, the international community forgot about Afghanistan. The country became a failed state and a
sanctuary for extremism and international terrorism, with terrible consequences that we experienced on
9/11 along with the horrors that befell the Afghan people under the Taliban regime. Today I can affirm
NATO, as part of the international community, has learned the lessons of the
1990s. We remain committed to Afghanistan, and to helping Afghans build a
that
peaceful, stable, and secure future. The NATO-led ISAF mission in Afghanistan is now nearly twelve years
old, and it is useful to take stock of what weve accomplished. In the blur of the daily news cycle, we
sometimes only hear about suicide bombings and insider attacks. Some commentators even imply that
after transition, the Taliban are destined to draw Afghans back into a natural state of extremism and
intolerance. This is a slur against the Afghans, and it also represents a misreading of Afghan history. We
forget that before communism and the Soviet invasion, Afghan cities bubbled with movie theatres, shiny
automobiles, and a prosperous middle class. Kabul was the center of a sophisticated and dynamic culture
years of insurgency, civil war, and international

neglect devastated the country and its capital. It was only this
state of chaos that allowed the Taliban to come to power. Their rise
was not natural or inevitable. It was, in fact, an accident of history. Today the Taliban
are weak, scattered, and demoralized. The notion that they could reconquer the
at the heart of Asia. Then
country is not just dubious from a military perspective. It fails to recognise how Afghan society has
changed since the dark days of the mid-1990s. Kabul is once again a bustling metropolis of 5 million
people. We see levels of health care, education, and economic development that were unthinkable only ten
years ago. Eight million children go to school, over a third of them girls. The economy is growing at about
Afghan security forces are in the lead in providing security
for three quarters of the countrys population. In most of those areas, security is
6% a year.
stable or improving. By the end of 2014, the Afghan National Security Forces will be 352,000 strong and
will have full security responsibility across Afghanistan. Once the transition to full Afghan security
responsibility is complete, ISAFs combat mission will end. But NATOs commitment to Afghanistan will
continue. Last month, Allied Defence Ministers approved the framework for a new NATO-led mission that
will focus on providing training, advice and assistance to the Afghan Security Forces after 2014. This
training mission is NATOs pledge to Afghanistans future. Security, however, is only part of the problem,
Afghanistan needs continued investment and

support, so that Afghans can build on the gains we have
made together. That is why the international community, and the countries of the region, must
and NATO is only part of the solution.
international
keep the pledges they have made and continue to provide the reconstruction and development assistance
that Afghanistan needs, both now and beyond 2014. Fortunately, weve made a good start. Last July, in
Tokyo, countries around the world pledged their help looking well into the next decade. And the Kabul
Conference in June sent a clear message that Afghanistans neighbours will play a constructive role.
This regional dimension is important. By working more closely

together, Afghanistan and its neighbours can prevent the re-creation

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of havens for terrorism and other illegal activities such as narcotics

production. For that reason, the Heart of Asia process is an important step
towards building cooperation and understanding. NATOs regional partnerships
also have a role to play. Security is the foundation of prosperity, and with the goal of enhancing security,
NATO has built partnerships with all Central Asian countries, as well as with Pakistan and Russia. These
partners have already provided considerable support, particularly in the areas of transit arrangements and
counter-narcotics. And I hope that they will do even more post-2014, for example in terms of economic
cooperation, investment, trade, and border security. I also hope that Pakistan, in particular, will
understand that stability and security in Afghanistan are in its own long-term interests, and that it, too, will
play its part in helping the region to fulfil its enormous potential. The French economist Bastiat is believed
to have written that "if goods dont cross borders, soldiers will." Beyond 2014, with the help of our regional
partners, we can help to ensure that Afghanistan is a crossroads not for soldiers, but for goods and ideas.
Finally, Afghanistans leaders have pledged to improve governance, fight corruption, conduct fair elections,
uphold the constitution, and ensure the protection of human rights, including the rights of women. These
pledges must now be fulfilled. The 2014 elections will be a crucial test. They must be inclusive,
transparent, and credible. The Afghan people expect their leaders to live up to their commitments, and so
do Allies. We made that very clear during the recent trip of the North Atlantic Council and several of our
partners to Afghanistan. Ladies and gentlemen, I will end my remarks today by urging everyone to take a
fresh look at Afghanistan. Look at where we are, and how far weve come. And look at the opportunity we
now have for Afghanistan to become a factor for peace and prosperity in Central Asia, rather than a source
Thirty years of conflict left a legacy of weak

governance and great poverty. But surely and steadily, NATO and Afghan Security Forces
are creating the security conditions for stability and development. Afghanistan is looking to
the future, not the past. And so should we. NATO is determined to see its current mission through,
of instability and conflict.
and to stand by Afghanistan even after 2014. The Alliance looks forward to the rest of the international
community, and to the countries of the region, joining with us to help deliver to the Afghan people the
future they deserve.

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EU RelationsIran Add-On
Relations are key to check Iran nuclear proliferation.
8/12/13, Keerthi)
Transatlantic cooperation regarding Irans nuclear program has been
close and extensive. Since the discovery of Irans covert enrichment activities in 2002, the EU-3 (France, Germany, and
the United Kingdom) have played a leading role in international efforts to curtail them. In 2006, the United States
joined the EU-3, along with Russia and China, to form the Permanent Five Plus One (P5+1) group that has
attempted to conduct negotiations with Iran.16 Between 2006 and 2010, the EU-3
and the United States successfully pushed for United Nations
Security Council approval of four rounds of sanctions on Iran (Resolutions
1737, 1747, 1803, and 1929). Since 2010, the EU has shown a new willingness to go
beyond what has been authorized by the U.N. and to adopt sanctions
on Iran independently. Many analysts are surprised at how far the EU measures have gone. In the past, some
Americans had pointed to European economic ties with Iran as a sign of European reluctance to press Tehran too hard, urging Europeans to
adopt tighter sanctions. Analysts assert that this shift by the EU has sent a strong signal and brought U.S. and European sanctions policy on
Iran into a broad alignment. An EU embargo on Iranian oil took effect on July 1, 2012. Previously, the EU had bought about 600,000 barrels
EU sanctions now in place against

Iran also include restrictions on access to nuclear technology and
dual use items; an embargo on natural gas and petrochemical
products, and restrictions on business activities with the energy and
petrochemical sectors; an arms embargo; and extensive restrictions
on financial transactions and other business activities with the
Iranian government, Iranian Central Bank, and Iranian financial
institutions. Restrictions and enhanced inspection requirements for Iranian cargo vessels and aircraft have also been imposed, as
per day of Iranian oil, about a quarter of Irans total oil exports.
well as a visa ban and asset freeze against more than 130 individuals involved in Irans nuclear program, and an asset freeze on more than
330 entities identified as supporting Irans nuclear program.17
Iran proliferation causes nuclear war- deterrence is key.

Al Faisal 13 (Prince Turki Al Faisal, chairman of the King Faisal Center for
Research and Islamic Studies, former director general of Saudi Arabias
intelligence agency, and former ambassador to the United States, 8/9/13,
How to Save the Middle East from Nuclear War,
http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2013/08/how-save-middle-east-nuclearwar/68120/, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
My proposal for a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the
Middle East seeks to inject much-needed energy into resolving a
crucial issue that affects us all, but none more than the peoples of the Middle East
themselves. The international community has often clung to policies that
fail to tackle the obstacles to action. While my proposals stretch the boundaries
of conventional thinking, they predictably will invite objections . They should be given a
fair hearing. Otherwise, we are all heading to a new and more dangerous
Middle East containing many nuclear-armed states in which the risk
of nuclear war will be greatly magnified. No region in the world is in
greater need of becoming such a zone than the conflict-cursed Middle East.
This region is in the midst of a drastic transformation. One of its
states (Israel) is a de facto nuclear weapon state and another one
(Iran) is progressing toward becoming one. Both countries have lied about their

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intentions in this regard. Israel publicly stated that it would not introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle
Iran has
publicly stated that it seeks the peaceful development of nuclear
power, yet it continues to raise enrichment levels in its centrifuges
while increasing their number and preventing International Atomic
Energy Agency inspectors from inspecting suspected sites . Given the
East, yet it is believed to posses over 200 warheads with the required delivery systems.
importance of this issue in this region and the current political changes taking place there, I have written a
fuller Harvard paper that addresses the issue of establishing a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone, or
WMDFZ.

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EU RelationsSyria Add-On
EU relations are key to deter the Syrian conflict.
8/12/13, Keerthi)
Alongside the United States, the EU has been a leading voice in
international condemnation of the Syrian governments violence against its people. With
stronger U.N. action blocked by Russia and China in the Security Council, the EU has moved ahead to
impose extensive sanctions on the Assad regime, expanding its
sanctions from an initial focus on targeting specific individuals and
entities to broader measures against the regimes economic base,
including an oil embargo and extensive restrictions on financial and
banking activities. The immediate goal of EU policy has been to convince the Asad regime to halt violence
and enter into negotiations with the opposition. Analysts asserted that EU sanctions successfully
ratcheted up economic pressure on the regime approximately 90% of Syrias oil
exports were sold to European countriesbut sanctions do not appear to have greatly affected Asads political
As in the United States, Europeans have debated military

intervention or openly arming the Syrian rebels, but have remained reluctant to
calculations.
pursue either option. The United Kingdom and France have reportedly been pushing to lift the EU arms embargo in order
to arm opposition forces, but have been unable to bring the matter to a consensus among all EU members. European
Also like
the United States, in December 2012 the EU recognized the
opposition Syrian National Coalition as the sole legitimate
representative of the Syrian people. Having ruled out any sort of direct military intervention
countries have thus far provided non-lethal equipment, humanitarian assistance, and some training.19
for the time being, however, the EU appears to have staked its Syria approach on bringing about a political settlement
through the combined pressure of sanctions and international opinion. The EU can thus be expected to continue to
strongly support U.N. and Arab League efforts to monitor the situation and broker negotiations, while also
continuing to use the United Nations as a forum in which to urge

counties such as Russia and China to apply pressure on the Asad
regime.
Syrian conflict pulls in great powers and causes nuclear

war
Dilks 13 (Andrew, author of Goliath, book about international warfare, 8/8,
Syrian Atrocities, Deception and the Road to Nuclear War,

http://disinfo.com/2013/08/syrian-atrocities-deception-and-the-road-tonuclear-war/, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
Syrian rebels have allegedly carried out another massacre of civilians, all in the name of
freeing civilians from the yoke of evil dictator Bashar al-Assad. The Al-Alam News Network reported that mercenaries from
the al-Nusra Front a ruthless group believed to have ties to the CIA and Turkish intelligence murdered 120 Kurdish children and 330 men and women in the town of Tal
Abyad located in a district of northern Syria. It is the latest in a string of atrocities carried out by groups opposing the Syrian government, which include dozens of civilian
massacres, beheadings (including an incident in which opposition forces cheered on as a 14 year old boy beheaded a Syrian soldier) and a gruesome incident with a rebel
cutting out and eating a soldiers heart (who was kind enough to grant the BBC an interview). That these violent mercenaries and extremists are backed by the West
should come as no surprise to anyone who has followed events in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya (indeed, many of the mercenaries currently carrying out atrocities in Syria
were involved in the proxy war to overthrow Colonel Gaddafi). The British government are currently weighing up the efficacy of arming the rebels, with mixed signals
emerging from Parliament over whether or not weapons should be send to the conflict zone. Prime Minister David Cameron suggested he had ruled out such a possibility,
but foreign secretary William Hague arch-warmonger of the Conservatives indicated clearly that arming the rebels is still very much an option. Such
debates seem more concerned with the legal and diplomatic

ramifications than they are with the disastrous moral/humanitarian
consequences the Iraq War demonstrated clearly the penchant for slaughter held by the vast majority of British politicians. The US
government is considerably more brazen. Having invaded Afghanistan on the pretext of eliminating al-Qaeda,
12 years on the very same terrorist groups have been receiving US military contracts. American officials are citing due process rights as a reason not to cancel the
agreements, a statement of galling irony in light of the hundreds of detainees held at Guantanamo Bay held without any consideration for their rights, many of whom were
rounded up in the early years of the Afghanistan War for the cash bounties offered by the US. Following a secret order in 2012, the Obama administration and the CIA
have been arming the Syrian militants, including anti-tank weapons and Stinger missiles. Intelligence insiders have recently revealed that the Benghazi attack, in which the

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US ambassador and others were murdered by jihadists, was in fact a staged event conducted by the State Department for the transfer of arms to al-Qaeda in Syria. It is
yet another instance of US covert gun-running which echoes the Fast and Furious scandal, in which the US government shipped thousands of weapons across the Mexican
the recent Middle East terror alerts absurd,

to say the least. Coming soon after the Edward Snowden revelations regarding the NSAs surveillance program and the public backlash against
border and into the hands of drug cartels. All of which makes
spying on such an unprecedented scope, its not hard to see why many view this alleged terror threat as a political stunt to vindicate the governments snooping. And
as embassies across the Muslim world shut down, the mainstream

media is once again repeating the terrorism mantra in wall to wall
coverage designed to ratchet up the tension and fear. But perhaps far
more troubling is the recent involvement of Israel, who entered the conflict with a bang when
they bombed the Qassioun Mountain Research Site back in May. In alliance with Turkey, Israeli attacks on
Syria have been met with hollow denials and a mute response from the mainstream media. But the most recent
attacks in Homs and Qasyoon earlier this month should give any sane person cause for concern. The size of the explosions were initially attributed to the
ammunition dump which had been targeted. But a recent report from Channel 4s Jon Snow has suggested another disturbing
possibility: Israel is using nuclear weapons. Greg Thielmann, an expert on arms control policy, told Snow: The fact of the
matter is, what we are seeing in both these cases is a tactical nuclear strike, probably by cruise missiles launched from aircrafts near the borders of Syria or right off the
coast in the Mediterranean. Horrific as this may sound, Snow went on to describe this as a remarkably delicious possibility of removing the tyrant Assad using all tools
the prospect is
simply awfully ironic rather than plain and simple awful. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Snows piece has since been pulled from Channel 4s blog pages (but
can be found here.) It is clear that the world currently faces the slippery slope
to nuclear war and that further escalation of violence in Syria may
well develop into a proxy war between the US and Russia or
something much worse. As we commemorate the use of nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki the threat of
nuclear war looms over the planet. Perhaps now more than ever men of violence need to be opposed by men of peace.
available, advocating the use of nuclear and chemical weapons in the name of human rights and freedom in the world. To Snow,

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Brazil CP

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1NC Generic
Text: The Federative Republic of Brazil should <plan>.
Brazil solves the plan best provides the best leadership
in Latin America.
Gratius and Saraiva 2013 (Susanne Gratius, Associated Professor for
international relations at the Complutense University in Madrid, Miriam

Gomes Saraiva, Rio Branco Chair in International Relations, June 4 2013,
Continental Regionalism: Brazils prominent role in the America,
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?id=164758, Keerthi,
Accessed, 9/29/13)
The new millennium is somewhat different. The global scenario is more fragmented, marked
by a trend towards multi-polarisation, and the global economy has
been hit first by the financial crisis that struck the US in 2008, and now with even
more serious impacts from the euro crisis. The problems inside the
European Union have damaged the credibility of the European
regional integration model, and cast into doubt both the economic strategy adopted thus far and the very future of integration in
the continent and beyond. This new reality has paved the way for the rise of new
players and contrasting worldviews from the liberalism that prevailed in the 1990s: different
conceptions and priorities towards certain deep-rooted principles in
the West, such as the responsibility to protect, democracy and
human rights. In South America, the emergence, since the early 2000s, of new left-wing governments keen to bring about political reform, reducing
these countries alignment with the United States, and the powerful crisis in Argentina, weakening its influence in the region, have given Brazil more scope for autonomy in
the region.
1. Brazils foreign policy between global and regional
projection In these times of change in the shaping of a new world order, Brazil has begun to stand out
for its assertive participation in international politics, where it has
favoured anti-hegemonic,[1] multi-polar positions and its increasingly
strong leadership in its own region. During the Lula administration
from 2003 to 2010, Brazil gradually started step-by-step to shoulder the costs
inherent in cooperation, governance and integration in the region.[2] At
that time, the Brazilian Development Bank BNDES with a total budget that
exceeds that of the Inter-American Development Bank began to
finance infrastructure projects in South American. [3] The election of Lula da Silva at the end of 2002 and the ensuing rise of
an autonomy-oriented group in Brazils Ministry of Foreign Affairs
cast the countrys foreign policy in a new light.[4] Diplomatic support
for existing international regimes in the 1990s gave way to a proactive push
towards modifying these regimes in favour of southern countries or Brazils particular interests, which was defined by
Lima as soft revisionism.[5] The idea of bringing other emerging or poorer southern
countries on board to counterbalance the might of traditional
Western powers served as the basis for the countrys international
actions. While coalitions with emerging partners helped boost Brazils global pretensions, [6] its diplomatic efforts were
geared towards bolstering its international standing independently
of any other nation, with its role as a global player being firmly grounded in the ideas of autonomy and universalism that were the predominant
diplomatic thinking at the time. Alongside Brazils international rise, its leadership in South
America also started to be seen as a priority. Indeed, the moves to boost
its global and regional projection came simultaneously and were

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seen by Brazil as mutually beneficial . The cooperation with its

regional neighbours was perceived by policy-makers as the best way
for Brazil to realise its potential, support economic development and
form a bloc with stronger international influence. The creation of the
South American Defence Council and the Brazilian command of the
UN peacekeeping force in Haiti, whose troops are drawn from different countries in the region, were seen as
helping Brazil towards a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
According to Flemes, in its upward progress in a new, more multi-polar world order , Brazil would need regional clout in
global negotiations, but would not be tied down to any form of
institutionalisation that might restrict its autonomy.[7 ]

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Nanotech
Brazil can solve nanotech- has empirically coordinated
nanotech cooperation
Invernizzi 13, Ph.D. in Science and Technology Policy from the State University of Campinas in
Brazil, adjunct professor at the School of Education at the Federal University of Parana in Brazil and and
Foladori anthropologist with a PhD in Economics, has worked as professor at universities in Mexico,
Honduras, Nicaragua, Uruguay, and Brazil, teaches at the Doctoral Program on Development Studies at the
Autonomous University of Zacatecas, Mexico and member of the National System of Researchers of
Mexico. Coordinates the Latin American Nanotechnology and Society Network (Noela Invernizzi and
Guillermo Foladori, Inequality Gaps in Nanotechnology Development in Latin America,
www.theartsjournal.org/index.php/site/article/download/82/81, p.40-41, Accessed: 9/25/13, TM)
It is interesting to notice the convergence of certain elements in the

regional context at the moment that nanotechnology emerged as a cutting
edge techno-scientific area. This occurred at a time when regional universities began to gain wider
access to resources such as the Internet and online databases of
scientific magazines, which together, along with expanded opportunities for post-graduate studies abroad and, in the
case of the Southern Cone, the return of many scientist who had been living abroad in exile since the end of the 1980s, contributed to
Thus, to a large extent, the

scientists followed the formation of nanotechnology much 40 | P a g e ... a
expanding the contact of local scientific communities to more dynamic centers of knowledge production.
program to encourage, lay the foundations for and promote the development of human and technical infrastructure in Argentina so that,
through its own and related activities, conditions can be established that allow the country to compete at the international level in the
application and development of micro and nanotechnologies that increase the earned value of products for internal consumption and export
nanotechnology appears as a strategy in the

Special Science and Technology Program 20012006. A few years later, in the Special Science and
Technology Program 20082012, the importance of nanotechnology, along with other fields, was justified as follows: The same
argument can be found in many other countries. These examples illustrate a kind of mechanical
(Repblica Argentina, n.d.) In Mexico,
reasoning in which increased competitiveness will ensure improved living conditions. However, on the one hand the possibilities of
competitiveness are not the same for developed countries than for developing ones. On the other hand, the wealth that comes from increased
competitiveness is generally not distributed equitably, so competitiveness can lead, as some historical cases had shown, to widespread
inequality (Delgado Wise & Invernizzi, 2002), and to a research agenda focused on external needs. Inequality gaps in nanotechnology
development in Latin America Guillermo Foladori/Noela Invernizzi more closely than they probably followed other scientific areas in the past.
Although the local networks expanded in recent years, the

international networks did not shrink, as they continue to be
essential to maintaining the sustained contact with laboratories at
the cutting edge of nanotechnology research and also to maintaining access to sophisticated
equipment. The formation of intraregional networks is more recent and, as
the previous data on publications suggest, much frailer. Brazil works as a
common node of several of the more structured regional
cooperation initiatives (Invernizzi et al., 2012). The first initiative was the
Brazilian- Argentinean Center for Nanotechnology, created in 2005, next followed the
Brazilian-Mexican Virtual Center for Nanotechnology, created in 2009, and the Brazilian-Chilean
Center for Nanotechnology. Another initiative beginning in early 2011 was the Mexico-Argentina Virtual Center. Up to what
extend these intra-regional networks reproduce the topics and
methodologies driven by developed countries is something to be
investigated, but will not be a surprise considering the policy
context of promoting competitiveness and the larger funds that
intercontinental networks receive vis a vis regional networks.

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Cuba Generic
Brazilian cooperation with Cuba solves.
Gomez 13 (Eduardo J. Gomez, Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Rutgers University at Camden,
BA in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia, PhD in political science from Brown University, January
18 2013, Brazil's Cuban Connection, Quarterly Americas, Published by Americas Society and Council of
the Americas, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/brazils-cuban-connection, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Brazil is once again seeking to enhance its international profile . But this
time, rather than engaging in close partnerships with its fellow BRICS club membersRussia, India, China, and South
AfricaBrazil
is collaborating with a smaller nation: Cuba. Since assuming office in

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has worked closely with Cuban President Ral
Castro to strengthen their partnership in the hopes of further bolstering
Brazil's economic advantages and regional influence. She is
achieving this by providing financial and technical assistance to
help restructure Cuba's economy while at the same time advancing
Brazils economic interests through strategic investments in port
infrastructure. Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez' quickly deteriorating
health has created incentives for Dilma to fortify her ties with
Castro, gradually replacing VenezuelaCubas biggest benefactoras Cuba's most important ally in the region. 5
2011,
Comment on this post But instead of bullying Cuba into following Brazil's lead, Dilma is also gaining something in return
for her citizens: technical assistance from Cuba to address educational illiteracy, a long-time developmental challenge for
Cuba benefits by displaying its impressive success in education reform, while highlighting
its potential to be an amicable partner in hemispheric affairs .
Brazil. In so doing,

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Cuba Agriculture
Brazil solves Cuban agriculture it has more expertise on
Cuban ag.
ACN 13 (Cuban News Agency, Cuba and Brazil to Strengthen Cooperation
in Agriculture, Sep. 3, 2013,

http://www.ain.cu/idiomas/Ingles/2013/0904Strengthen%20Cooperation.htm,
HAVANA, Cuba, Sep 3 (acn) The current visit to Cuba of an institutional delegation of the government of the
Brazilian state of Rio Grande del Sur contributes to strengthen bonds of
cooperation and exchange between the two nations in the field of
agriculture.
Cuban News Agency The South American visitors will stay until Friday, with an agenda that
includes visits to scientific centers, producers and Status organizations. Andrea Sa Brito, advisor to the Secretary of
Agriculture, Livestock and Agribusiness, told the press on Monday that projects include activities linked to the production
initiative will allow for

technology and machine transfer to boost national programs carried
out by Cuba to achieve food sovereignty and depend increasingly
less on imports. Talita Lima, third secretary of the Brasilia embassy to Havana, asserted that the
executives also came to Cuba to know more about the islands experiences in the
use of organic fertilizers, given the high consumption of agro-toxics
used in his country.
of rice, milk and fruit, among others. She pointed out that the

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Cuba Ethanol/Sugar
Brazil solves Cuban sugar and Cuba says yes.
Cuba Standard 13 (Oct. 11, 2013, Brazilian companies negotiating
sugar investments, http://www.cubastandard.com/2013/10/11/braziliancompanies-negotiating-sugar-investments/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
CUBA STANDARD Executives of 17 Brazilian sugar and derivatives companies
gathered in Havana Thursday and Friday with executives of state sugar holding Azcuba to
negotiate participation in a $200 million pilot project anchored by a sugar mill in Cienfuegos province, official news
service Prensa Latina reported. The 5 de Septiembre sugar mill near the southern port city of Cienfuegos has become a testing ground for the
modernization of Cubas ailing sugar industry. Companhia de Obras e Infraestrutura (COI), a subsidiary of Brazils Grupo Odebrecht, became
the first major foreign company to engage in Cubas sugar industry when it signed a 13-year joint production agreement in November 2012
with Azcuba to operate the mill. The event at the Hotel Nacional that ends today aims at attracting Brazilian technology and know-how to
improve operations at and around 5 de Septiembre, and boost production of the sugar mill from 25,000 metric tons to 140,000 metric tons.
The overall investment necessary to achieve this goal is $200

million , executives of Brazilian sugar and ethanol producer Grupo Toledo said, according to the official report. Cuba
wants to revitalize the sugar sector, and in recent years we have
been observing that the country is going through transformations
that can bring about great opportunities, said Flavio Castelar, executive director of ethanol trade
association APLA, in announcing the event. A key part of the 5 de Septiembre project is apparently ethanol production. Brazil is
the ethanol world leader, and Odebrechts bioenergy division is one of
Brazils largest ethanol producers. Cuba has abstained from boosting ethanol production because Fidel
Castro has been arguing that it diminishes food security for the most vulnerable population. Last year, a Brazilian foreign
ministry spokesman told reporters that Cuba is about to engage in
ethanol production, as Fidels resistance in this field is being
overcome. Brazilian organizations at the negotiations represent
the entire sugarcane production chain, including APLA, sugar producer Grupo Toledo, and COI. The
event has been promoted by Brazil Sugarcane Bioenergy Solutions, a
joint venture between APLA and Brazilian export promotion agency Apex.
Brazil solves Cuban ethanol it also leads to the repeal of

the embargo, which solves relations.
Forman 13 (Johanna Mendelson Forman, senior associate with Americas Program at CSIS, director
of peace, security, and human rights at the UN Foundation, scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace, J.D. from
Washington College of Law, Ph.D. in Latin American history, IN DEPTH: Brazil-Cuba Partnership: Island
Nation Could Become a Major Ethanol Producer, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
http://csis.org/files/publication/130108_SJohnson_HemInsider.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Brazil-Cuba Partnership: Island Nation Could Become a Major Ethanol

Producer
The Cuban sugar industry is about to a get a big lift after stagnating for almost a decade. According to news reports, the
Compania de Obras en Infraestructura, a subsidiary of the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht is gearing up to make a
$60 million investment to begin managing Cubas 5 de Septiembre mill in Cienfuegos province .
This is the
first time since the 1959 revolution that the government in Havana has accepted
foreign participation in this industry. However, what is more relevant for
regional energy security is that Brazilian technology and know-how
in the production of ethanol will transform Cuba into an export
platform for sugar-based ethanol, a major competitor with the U.S.
corn-based variety. Having a source of inexpensive and cleaner
ethanol close by could create significant competition for U.S. corn growers given the U.S.
fuel mandates that require ethanol in Americas gasoline blends, with required amounts likely to

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increase over the next four years. While it will not be the reason that the United States ends its trade embargo with
Cuba, energy security may be a factor in nudging domestic political
deliberations forward.
Growing availability of cane-based ethanol may also help supply the needs of
energy deficient Caribbean and Central American states.
Brazil has the best tech and expertise with sugar/ethanol.

Cuban Triangle, 2012 (Report site on Cuban news and
Havana/Washington events and Arguments, January 27, Brazil stays in the
game, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Reuters raises the curtain on Brazilian President Dilma Rousseffs visit to Cuba next week, where she
will continue her predecessors policy of economic cooperation with Cuba, including
the major project of the port of Mariel. Cuba Standard, meanwhile, found a Folha de Sao Paolo article
Brazilian official, just back from Cuba, talked about the possibilities for
Brazilian companies to invest in ethanol production in Cuba and
declared, Fidels resistance in this field is being overcome. Lets hope
thats the case. Brazilian investment in Cuban ethanol production would
where a
bring world-class technology and know-how to Cuba, generate jobs,

enable Cuba to cut oil imports and foreign exchange expenditures,
and provide sorely needed revival to an economically and culturally
important sector of the Cuban countryside.

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Cuba Oil
Brazil companies solves oil tech safety
Kinch 12 (Diana, Dow Jones Newswire, Brazils President: Rules On Oil
Safety Apply To All Companies, http://gcaptain.com/brazils-president-rulessafety/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)All oil companies operating in Brazil, both domestic and
foreign , must respect safety protocols without exception , Brazils President
Dilma Rousseff said Wednesday. Responsibility is the key as Brazil reconciles oil
exploration with environmental protection and as presalt fields bring
new oil prospection and production realities worldwide, Rousseff said in Rio de
Janeiro, as Magda Chambriard took office as president of Brazils national oil regulator, ANP. ANP has a
strategic role to play in safety, as well as in development of the countrys ethanol industryone of Brazils
paths to the futureand in monitoring national content policies, Rousseff said. Content policies require
companies draw from domestic sources for labor and equipment
needs.
They solve oil production in Cuba and the Venezuela

advantage.
LAHT 10 (Latin America Herald Tribune, Brazils Petrobras Opens Oil-
Exploration Office in Cuba, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?

CategoryId=14510&ArticleId=339381, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
HAVANA Brazilian state-controlled energy giant Petrobras has opened an
office in Cuba to accompany its effort to explore for oil in the communist-ruled
islands territorial waters, the companys new representative in Havana said. Joao Figueras, who also is CEO of Petrobras Venezuelan unit,
told a press conference that the office will be a point of reference during the first exploratory phase, but that if a decision is made to
the company will expand its representation in Cuba.

For the moment, Petrobras has decided that its Caracas team will carry out
the technical work in Cuba with a view to cost management and
efficiency. The Brazilian company currently is analyzing the results of seismic surveys carried out within the block it acquired last
advance to the drilling stage
October in deep Cuban waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Following geological and geophysical studies in the area, Petrobras will have until May
2010 to decide whether to begin drilling, according to the terms of its contract with state-owned Cuba Petroleo, or Cupet. This block
represents the companys return to Cuba. For now were going to manage that, but were open to evaluating other opportunities in the
country, Figueras said, noting that Petrobras searched for oil in the islands territorial waters between 1998 and 2001. It was a perfect
The Brazilian company currently has a

32-year exploration and production agreement with the Cuban
government, allowing it to operate in a 1,600 square-kilometer (617-square-mile) block that Figueras said is very well located
from a geological point of view. Figueras said the trade and financial embargo the United
States has imposed on Cuba since 1962 creates a series of difficulties
but does not impede Petrobras work , adding that the company has found
solutions and paths to drilling in Cuba in the past using contracted
platforms. If we make the decision to drill, the company will have the means to carry
out the drilling. Thats why our job now is to be very focused on the geophysical-geological work so that we make the best
operation, but unfortunately the well was dry, he said.
decision, he added. Also operating in Cubas portion of the Gulf of Mexico, an area known as the Exclusive Economic Zone that measures
some 112,000 square kilometers (43,245 square miles), are Spains Repsol-YPF, Norways Statoil-Hydro, Indias Oil and Natural Gas
Petrobras was the most

recent company to acquire a block in the EEZ, bringing to 21 the number currently under
Corporation, Malaysias Petronas, Venezuelas PDVSA and Vietnams PetroVietnam.
contract. Petrobras, an integrated energy company and a global leader in deepwater oil exploration and production, operates in 27 countries
in the Americas, Africa, Asia and Europe. Shares of Petrobras, Brazils largest corporation, trade on the Sao Paulo, New York, Madrid and
Buenos Aires stock exchanges, but the Brazilian government retains control through a golden share. Cupets exploration manager, Rafael
Tenreyro, said last November that based on very modest estimates about 20 billion barrels could lie in the islands offshore fields, while
the U.S. Geological Survey has estimated a more modest total of between 4.6 billion and 9.3 billion barrels of recoverable crude.

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Brazil solves the Venezuela advantage.

LAHT 10 (Latin America Herald Tribune, Brazils Petrobras Opens Oil-
Exploration Office in Cuba, http://www.laht.com/article.asp?

CategoryId=14510&ArticleId=339381, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Petrobras was the most recent company to acquire a block in the EEZ,
bringing to 21 the number currently under contract. Petrobras, an integrated energy
company and a global leader in deepwater oil exploration and
production, operates in 27 countries in the Americas, Africa, Asia and Europe. Shares
of Petrobras, Brazils largest corporation, trade on the Sao Paulo, New York, Madrid
and Buenos Aires stock exchanges, but the Brazilian government retains control through a
golden share. Cupets exploration manager, Rafael Tenreyro, said last November that based on
very modest estimates about 20 billion barrels could lie in the islands offshore fields, while the U.S.
Geological Survey has estimated a more modest total of between 4.6 billion and 9.3 billion barrels of
Cuba currently imports from close ally Venezuela more than

about half the islands needs under
preferential terms that allow the island to pay with medical,
educational and sports services. EFE
recoverable crude.
90,000 barrels per day of crude oil or

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Cuba Science/Education
Brazil solves Cuban science development.
Gomez 13 (Eduardo J. Gomez, Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Rutgers University at Camden,
BA in Foreign Affairs from the University of Virginia, PhD in political science from Brown University, January
18 2013, Brazil's Cuban Connection, Quarterly Americas, Published by Americas Society and Council of
the Americas, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/brazils-cuban-connection, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Brazil is once again seeking to enhance its international profile. But this time, rather than engaging in close partnerships with its fellow BRICS club members
Russia, India, China, and South AfricaBrazil is collaborating with a smaller nation: Cuba . Since assuming
office in 2011, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has worked closely with Cuban President Ral Castro to strengthen their
partnership in the hopes of further bolstering Brazil's economic advantages and regional influence. She is achieving this
by providing financial and technical assistance
to help restructure Cuba's economy while at the
same time advancing Brazils economic interests through strategic investments in port infrastructure. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez' quickly deteriorating health has
created incentives for Dilma to fortify her ties with Castro, gradually replacing VenezuelaCubas biggest benefactoras Cuba's most important ally in the region. 5
instead of bullying Cuba into following Brazil's lead,

Dilma is also gaining something in return for her citizens : technical assistance from
Comment on this post But
Cuba to address educational illiteracy, a long-time developmental challenge for Brazil. In so doing, Cuba benefits by displaying its impressive success in education reform,
while highlighting its potential to be an amicable partner in hemispheric affairs. Dilma has continued the policy toward Cuba set by her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva. She has increased assistance, offering to help build a new port in the Mariel section of Cuba, located just a few miles outside of Havana. Brazilian engineers have
been working with their Cuban counterparts to build a port facilitating Cuba's trade. The port will facilitate Cuban trade and is being seen as a gateway for a free-trade
zone in the Americas. Beyond trade, the current port, as well as most of Havana's industry, is located in the tourist area of Old Havana. However, this has contributed to a
foul stench in the aira turn-off for most tourists. But there are ulterior motives. Despite being perceived as a charitable act, Brazil views this port as an economic
investment. In exchange for Brazils assistance, Odebrecht, the Brazilian construction company contracted to build the port, will receive payments from port receipts for an
extended period of time. At the same time, Brazilian companies are expected to get an early start in trading with Cuba, especially in the area of food exports. Aside from
solidifying the close partnership that started with Lula, through these efforts it also seems that Dilma is striving to create a new geopolitical alliance with Cubaone that is
not as hostile toward the United States. With Chavez uncertain health putting the future of the anti-U.S. Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA, using its Spanish
acronym) movement into question, Dilma appears to be stepping in to replace Chavez lead and to create a more U.S.-friendly environment in the region. With the
expectation that Chavez will soon be out of the picture, and with Havanas knowledge of Dilmas close ties with the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, the
it also seems that Dilma aims

to bolster Brazils reputation as a provider of financial and technical
assistance to developing nationsa foreign-policy objective for the
countrywhile also maintaining a two-way street in welcoming Cuban approaches in
education reform . Illiteracy is estimated to affect 11 percent of Brazilians, and key aspects of Cuba's
education model (e.g., its emphasis on math and science literacy) have been used as a blueprint
for helping Brazil's elementary and high schools and preparing a hightech workforce, where the potential labor supply has been low. What's
more, many of Cuba's university professors and graduate students are
emergence of a new, possibly pro-U.S. alliance may happen much sooner than we think. But
engaging in research projects with colleagues in Brazil. Cuba has been emphasizing
sciences and the humanities in their academic exchanges, with about 80 Cuban professors going to Brazil in 2011. Cuba's contributions
to Brazil in terms of education have shed light on its own domestic
successes: in 2011, for example, only 0.2 percent of the entire Cuban population was illiterate. And as of last year, approximately 97 percent of children
attended elementary and high school; in fact, since the late 1990s, Cuba has consistently ranked at the top among Latin American nations when measuring childrens
literacy in math and science. A report conducted by the OECD ranked Cuba number-one for mathematical and scientific achievement in Latin America. In 2001
international experts were so astonished by the performance of Cubas third- and fourth-graders that they went back to reconfirm the results.
Cubas
advances in math and science education stem from longstanding

government backing . Since the early 1960s, Fidel Castro repeatedly emphasized his commitment to creating "men of science," stressing
that mathematical and scientific knowledge was vital for Cuba's long-term development and prosperity. By providing technical
educational assistance to Brazilone of Latin America's most
advanced emerging powersCuba has been able to show just how
important it can be in helping address Latin Americas educational
challenges. Cuba is also showing its willingness to help other nations, despite the government's scarce
financial and technical resources, and how much other nations rely on and trust Cuba's assistance. The BrazilCuba
relationship reveals that close developmental partnerships can help emerging nations increase their success, notoriety and regional influence. But especially in the case of
Cuba, these partnerships also reveal how helpful smaller nations can assist bigger neighbors in preparing their children for future prosperity.

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Cuba Telecommunications
Brazil has the capacity for telecom assistance.
BMI 13 (Business Monitor International, Market Research, Brazil
Telecommunications Report Q4 2013,
http://www.marketresearch.com/Business-Monitor-International-v304/BrazilTelecommunications-Q4-7811158/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
BMI View: The first half of 2013 have seen Brazil's telecoms markets make
another significant step forward following the launch of the first 4G
LTE services, while supplementing these offerings with value added
services such as M2M and m-commerce. That these launches occurred at the same time as a slowdown in the overall subscription
growth rate of the mobile market is symbolic of the shift occurring as the market matures. Brazil has a high mobile
penetration rate, but with MVNOs set to enter the market in2013 we expect
growth to continue over the medium term. However, it will be at a slower pace comparedwith 2011 and 2012, as
operators push into the last remaining untapped rural areas. In the
broadbandmarket, Anatel has been active in trying to enhance competition,
reducing licence fees for operators wishingto provide multiple
services. However, data from Telebras suggest the government's National BroadbandPlan has been less than successful so far.

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Cuba Tourism
Brazil solves Cuban tourism provides industry growth.
CNN 13 (Caribbean News Now, July 17 2013, Brazil and Cuba to foster
tourism cooperation, http://www.caribbeannewsnow.com/topstory-Brazil-andCuba-to-foster-tourism-cooperation-16840.html, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
BRASILIA, Brazil (ACN) -- Cubas tourism minister Manuel Marrero and his Brazilian counterpart Gastao Diaz Vieira are
scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding in Brasilia to
foster bilateral cooperation in the tourism sector. The document
will express the parties willingness to work jointly and look for ways
to boost collaboration. This is the second time, the two ministers have held a working meeting after the first one that
took place in the Cuban tourist centre of Varadero last May, during the visit to the island by the Brazilian official. On that occasion, Diaz Vieira
headed his countrys delegation to the Cuban International Tourism Fair FitCuba 2013. The Cuban minister will also meet with the president of
in charge of the implementation of the

national tourism policy in terms of promotion, marketing and
support to the commercialization of tourist destinations and
products at the international market. Since July 11, when Marrero arrived in Brazil, he has visited the
the Brazilian Tourism Institute Flavio Dino, who is
cities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre, where he presented the Cuban tourism offerings to travel agencies, tour operators and the
Brazil is becoming a growing source of

tourists to Cuba. Some 16,000 Brazilian vacationers picked the island as their holiday destination in 2012.
business sector. According to specialized sources,

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Mexico Generic
Brazil cooperation solves technical cooperation and
Mexico says yes.
SRE 2010 (Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores [Secretary of Foreign Relations] Office, FIFTH
MEETING OF THE MEXICO-BRAZIL WORKING GROUP ON TECHNICAL COOPERATION,
http://www.sre.gob.mx/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2084:fifth-meeting-of-themexico-brazil-working-group-on-technical-cooperation&catid=27:archives&Itemid=64, Keerthi, Acc
11/9/13)
The heads of both countries cooperation agencies are meeting to

discuss the 2013-2015 Technical Cooperation Program. The high-impact
proposals include a technology transfer program in the Mexican tropics. Other
areas of cooperation: water, health, education and social
development Mexico and Brazil reaffirm their desire for a closer
relationship that benefits their societies.
The Foreign Ministry reports that the Mexico-
Brazil Working Group on Technical Cooperation is meeting for the fifth time from September 2-4 in Mexico City. The
inaugural meeting was co-chaired by Juan Manuel Valle, Executive Director of the Mexican Agency for International
Development Cooperation (AMEXCID), and Ambassador Fernando Abreu, Director of the Brazilian Cooperation Agency
Mexican and Brazilian institutions from the agricultural,

health, education, water and social development sectors are
represented at the meeting. Mexico and Brazil have similar processes of
economic development and international development agendas with
common challenges and opportunities. The meeting reflects the interest of the
largest economies in Latin America in working together for the benefit
of their societies and, in turn, in sharing their potential with the rest of the
countries in the region. The working sessions will focus on negotiating the 2013-2015 Technical Cooperation
(ABC). Eleven
Program, which is expected to include eight bilateral and three joint projects for third countries, in the areas mentioned
above. Renewed impetus will be given to the agricultural sector by working on a

comprehensive technology transfer program and increasing productivity in the Mexican tropics, by region and by product,
which will improve the institutional and human capacities in tropical areas, where Brazil has had a successful experience.
Mexican and Brazilian cooperation agencies will review a

aimed at lessdeveloped countries, which will be signed in the near future. The memorandum will allow for measures
The directors of the
Memorandum of Understanding on Triangular Cooperation for projects in both countries
such as cooperation on the Donor Human Milk Bank, which benefits the inhabitants of Mexicos southern border region.
With this meeting,
Mexico and Brazil hope to expand their exchange of
knowledge and technologies, and to combine their potentials and

guide their efforts to train and improve their human resources,
which will help strengthen their relationship and make the two
countries into key players in international cooperation, especially in
South-South cooperation.

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Mexico Climate Change

Brazil cooperation with Mexico solves climate change.
Edwards and Zeger 12 (Guy Edwards, and Cody Zeger, BA at Brown University, Mexican and
Brazilian cooperation on climate crucial for driving change, Latin American Platform on Climate [Intercambio Climatico],
http://www.intercambioclimatico.com/en/2012/06/19/mexican-and-brazilian-cooperation-on-climate-crucial-for-drivingchange/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
As Mexico hosts the G20 Leaders Summit followed later this week by the Rio+20 Conference in Brazil, both
countries climate credentials are under serious scrutiny. Little serious bilateral cooperation
has taken place between these regional and global leaders on climate change. However, cooperation could prove
essential for achieving greater action on climate change in Latin
America and abroad.
Mexico and Brazil have made efforts to improve their relations on trade, security, energy and
biofuels. However, taking into account geographical differences and distinct regional and international perspectives, cooperation is limited.
Relations appear to be positive but competition between Latin Americas two largest economies and carbon
emitters is unquestionable. In the run up to the G20 and Rio+20 it is unclear what cooperation took place between
Brazil and Mexico. Brazil did change the original dates for Rio+20 due to a clash with the Diamond Jubilee of Queen
Elizabeth II and to accommodate Asian leaders attending the G20 Summit. With Rio+20 being described as too important to fail by the UN
chief Ban ki-Moon and Mexicos assertive action on low carbon development, it is unsurprising that Mexicos fifth priority for the G20
includes promoting sustainable development, green growth and the

fight against climate change. Mexico is walking on a diplomatic tightrope. The G20 lacks legitimacy and is
lambasted for being secretive, closed to 174 countries and civil society and subservient to financial markets. In turn, the UNs Rio+20 is
regarded as inclusive and highly democratic. Mexico may have put green growth on the G20 agenda but this concept is riddled with problems
Mexico requires a careful balancing act
similar to the criticisms leveled at the G20 itself.

to ensure
the G20 complements and improves the likelihood of success at the Rio+20. The proximity of the G20 and Rio+20 reminds us that
Mexico and Brazil have more in common than their rivalry suggests . As
world leaders on climate, the competition between them is a constructive part of
the effort to confront global warming and achieve sustainable
development. At the UNFCCC climate talks, Mexico is considered more of a flexible
and ambitious player given its role in successfully hosting the COP16, its membership of the Cartagena Dialogue and as
the original proponent of the Green Climate Fund. Brazil may be too conservative on the concept of Common but Differentiated
Responsibilities, but is still highly influential and can be credited for helping to keep some of its BASIC partners (China, India and South Africa)
in line during negotiations on the Durban Package in Bonn last month. Brazil and Mexico have been active in securing domestic legislation on
climate change. In 2009 former Brazilian President Lula signed a law establishing the National Climate Change Policy which sets a voluntary
national greenhouse gas reduction target of between 36.1 and 38.9 percent of projected emissions by 2020. This includes a target to reduce
deforestation rates in the Amazon by 80%. This month President Calderon signed Mexicos Climate Change Law which includes targets to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2020 and by 50% by 2050 and achieve 35% of Mexicos energy from renewable sources by
2024. Brazil may have recently announced the lowest deforestation rates on record due to tough government action, but it faces a testing
time ahead if it is to maintain its leadership on climate change. A presentation by the Alliance of Small Island States suggests that 2011 data
from the Brazilian government shows emissions will grow more rapidly than previously expected due to larger projected emissions from
deforestation and other sources in part due to the likely changes to the Forest Code. On clean energy, Brazil continues to be a world leader
on hydropower capacity and ethanol production while Mexico lags behind but is seeing strong interest from European companies interested in
its wind and solar potential. According to Climatescope 2012, Brazil is in poll position with the most amenable environment for climate-related
investments in Latin America with Mexico in sixth place. Mexico and Brazil are competitors in the race towards low carbon resilient
development. This competition is necessary and a constructive force for driving change. Enhanced cooperation, however, is required to take
better advantage of the attributes of these emerging powers and could be decisive for regional and international action on climate change and
With both countries pushing for a new global

climate treaty and touting their own climate legislation, contingent
on international funding and technology transfer, their combined
power pushing for these demands could be pivotal. Sharing lessons
and best practice on clean energy, REDD+, disaster risk reduction,
adaptation and climate finance could also feature prominently. As Mexican
low carbon resilient development.
president Calderon said in 2010 referring to Brazil: Imagine what we can do together; imagine if we complement each other. With the G20
and Rio+20 underway,
now is the time to seize the momentum.

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Mexico Renewables
Brazil can cooperate with Mexico on renewables it
provides a model for the rest of Latin America.
Gonzalez 12 (Gloria Gonzalez, June 24 2012, Renewable Energy Investors
Flock to Latin America, http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/RenewableEnergy/Renewable-Energy-Investors-Flock-to-Latin-America.html, Oil Prices
Magazine, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Investors are rushing to finance renewable energy projects in Latin
America, as many countries in the region now have attractive incentives and investment-grade
ratings. If you're not in a renewable project in Latin America and
youre a private equity investor, it's a little strange , George Osorio, managing
partner of New York-based private equity firm Conduit Capital, said at the Latin American and Caribbean
Renewable energy
has become a very attractive business throughout Latin America
Council on Renewable Energy's finance briefing in New York on Monday.
because of the stability of cash flows, with the exception of Argentina, which cannot afford subsidies or tax
incentives, he said. Just seven years ago, Osorio said he questioned where the returns would come from
when investing in Latin American renewable projects. But then a pullback in European market incentives
led companies such as GE and Vestas to ship their products to a new market: Brazil. Latin America
Brazil to start comes up with some of the best incentives you've ever
seen in this sector, he said. I consider it a model to go after. These
countries did not adopt feed-in tariffs, but the development banks in Brazil and
Mexico provided inexpensive financing and attractive incentives
that
have led to some concern that Brazil in particular has become a bubble waiting to burst, Osorio said.
In
Brazil, I think it's mature, he said. In every other country, its beginning. Countries in the
they also
organise wind-only or renewable-only bidding so developers do not
have to compete with other types of technologies. And, in certain countries,
distribution companies are required to buy this power under power purchase agreements. Returns
are also improving for these projects because of rapidly declining equipment costs. The returns
region provide helpful tax exemptions, although those can be taken away, Osorio noted. But
Osorio said he is seeing for wind projects throughout the region range from 15% to 9%, allowing private
Latin American officials and

stakeholders are becoming more sophisticated about financing, with
a better understanding of mechanisms such as non-recourse debt, he said. Many of
equity firms to sell these assets at a nice profit, he said.
the local financing institutions, especially in Peru, are starting to provide bridge financing, Osorio added.
About five or six years ago, only Chile and Trinidad & Tobago had investment-grade ratings, but that
That means you're getting better financing,
especially for some of the major countries; some of the more creditworthy like
Peru, Mexico, Brazil and Chile, he said. The strategic investors and some of the pension investors in
those countries could only invest in investment-grade projects. Now, they look at the whole
region in order to buy assets.
number is up to eight countries.

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Links to find
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Mexico
Ag
HC
Biofuels
another card about RE
Human Rights
counternarcotics
infrastructure
bank reform
PEMEX
Mexican students
water
trade (general)
Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela
Venezuela
counternarcotics
oil
democratic reform
human rights
Trade (general)
NET BENEFITS
- avoids ptx
- Brazil
A2 PERMS
A2 MX SAY NO
A2 BR CORRUPTION

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BRICS DA

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1NC Flow
1- Uniqueness, Internal Link, and Impact- Brazil, Russia,
India, China and South Africa, a group known as the
BRICS, are resurging their influence into Latin America
their cooperation spills over to create global multipolarity and resolve every major terminal impact.
Mahapatra 13 (Dr. Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra, associate at the University of Mumbai
Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, June 11, BRICS see greater role in Latin America, Russia Beyond the
Headlines http://rbth.asia/news/2013/06/11/brics_see_greater_role_in_latin_america_47283.html, Keerthi,
Accessed 8/30/13)
Cuban foreign minister visited New Delhi and

sought BRICS partnership with Latin American countries ,
representatives from Cuba, Haiti, Costa Rica and Chile met Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei
Lavrov in Moscow and sought Russian cooperation for the development of
Latin American countries and Chinese President, Xi Jinping toured Trinidad and
Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico to widen Chinese engagement in the region. Hot topic: BRICS
Like Africa, Latin America is emerging as a hub of economic development with
huge natural resources; it is but natural that it has gained increasing
attention of the world. In this context, BRICS engagement in the region ,
Last week witnessed some crucial developments from BRICS perspective. The
has become timely. The establishment of

Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in 2011 has
provided the region a unified voice, and with Brazil being a member
of BRICS as well as CELAC, the BRICS engagement in the region will be
consisting of 33 countries with population of 600 million,
mutually beneficial with larger implications for the globe.
Cuban Foreign
We
wish to seek a higher level of economic cooperation with the India and the
other BRICS nations , which we consider to be valuable. India is the first dialogue partner of the CELAC, which has provided
Minister, Bruno Eduardo Rodrguez Parrilla told in New Delhi that "CELAC wants to improve relations with BRICS." He also stated, "
the group a format to develop closer relations with India in diverse areas particularly information technology, medical services and tourism as
elaborated by the Cuban minister. He further announced, "We see an opportunity for mutually beneficial economic relations with India." The
CELAC has a similar format of dialogue with China, which can be

further extended to Russia and South Africa. The CELAC, which consists
of all countries of the two American continents, but without the US
and Canada , has recently started exploring economic relations with other countries including economic power houses of the
BRICS. Parrilla pointed out that there are many common values and objectives
between CELAC and BRICS, which need to be further explored. The foreign ministers of Cuba, Haiti and Costa Rica
and deputy foreign minister of Chile met Sergei Lavrov in the Russian capital to deliberate on various issues including promoting dialogue,
The joint communiqu brought out the commonalities

of interests in the areas of tackling terrorism, developing economic
relations, promoting democracy, advancing principles of
international law and the United Nations Charter, countering
transnational organized crime, and tackling other threats and
challenges. Lavrov stated at the end of the meeting, "Our friends have expressed their desire to make permanent contacts
trade and visa-free regime.
between the CELAC and BRICS We believe this is a very attractive suggestion and we will definitely discuss it with other states that are
members of this association." Russian foreign ministry also expressed the idea of establishing a permanent mechanism for political dialogue
and cooperation between Russia and CELAC. Latest news Russia to propose BRICS $10bln contribution for joint banks starting capital
Russia, China as cornerstone BRICS economies - interview of Russian President Putin BRICS Bank on the anvil
started pursuing vigorously its Latin American policy.
China has
It has already replaced the US

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as the largest trading partner of Brazil and Chile. Its trade with Latin America has grown since the last decade. From 2000 to 2011, it has
grown 20-fold, from $3.9 billion to $86 billion. Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister, Zheng Zeguang on the eve of Xi Jinpings visit to Latin
America dispelled any notion of competition between China and the US in the region and stated that China can work with the US in a
framework based on mutual trust, equality and inclusiveness. Xi was received by the Prime Minister of Trindad and Tobago, Kamla PersadBissessar. Besides this Caribbean country, Jinping also visited Costa Rica and Mexico. China is looking forward to widen its investment in the
The BRICS engagement with

CELAC is not only a factor in promoting multilateralism and fostering
a multi-polar world structure, but it also accrues economic
advantages to both the groupings. While the BRICS members are fast rising economies with huge financial
exploration of natural resources including energy resources in the region.
resources, the CELAC countries have also registered growth despite global economic slowdown. The Latin American countries are also rich in
natural resources. The Union of South American Nations on Natural Resources and Integral Development in its meeting in Venezuelan capital
Caracas last week emphasized on natural resources and their exploration for the development of the region. Latin America reportedly has 38
percent of copper, 21 percent of iron, 65 percent of lithium reserves, 42 percent of silver, and 33 percent of tin. It also contains about 30
percent of the total of the worlds water resources and 21 percent of the worlds natural forests. Some of the Latin American countries such
as Mexico and Venezuela are rich in energy resources. The huge population of CELAC makes the region a vast market for investment and also
for import from the BRICS countries.
The rising prowess of the BRICS will grow with its
Latin American engagement . Though many of the initiatives discussed above are related to individual members
of the BRICS, this adds to the collective sphere of influence of the grouping. As the members Latin
American engagement takes more dynamic shape, the prospects of
collective engagement as a group can be explored. The grouping can evolve common
strategies in exploring the resources in the region for mutual advantage. In this venture, the proposed BRICS bank can be an effective tool.
BRICS and US regional influence is zero-sum- each BRICS

nation is key to the whole group.
Laidi 11 (Zaki, Research Professor at the Centre dEtudes Europennes de Sciences Po., scholar at
University of Michigan and Northwestern University, field of research is multi-polarity and European foreign
affairs, The BRICS Against the West?, CERO is a French Research Center in Europe [Center for
International Studies and Research],
http://www.sciencespo.fr/ceri/sites/sciencespo.fr.ceri/files/n11_112011.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 8/30/13)
Whether we like it or not,
the BRICS are now part of the global geopolitical
landscape . It remains to be seen whether this evolving geopolitical acronym since, in 2011,
South Africa was added to the initial group consisting of Brazil, India, Russia, and China is able to structurally
impact the global system1. Structural impact refers to the ability to shape ones identity or
future configuration. Regarding identity this consists of proposing, for example, a competing
global narrative to that of the West (the world is multipolar and state
sovereignty is one of its essential features). With regard to balance of power, it involves changing the
agenda, direction, standing requirements, and collective decisionmaking of the international community in sensitive areas (multilateral trade
negotiations, International Monetary Fund reform, Security Council and United Nations reform, completion of climate negotiations,
implementation of the resolution on the responsibility to protect).
The BRICS impact can be evaluated
based on the degree of political coherence among them , as well as

their capacity to influence the international system. This article will from the outset
assume that the BRICS form a heterogeneous coalition of often competing
powers that share a common fundamental political objective: to
erode Western hegemonic claims by protecting the principle which
these claims are deemed to most threaten, namely the political
sovereignty of states . The BRICS form a coalition of sovereign state defenders. While they do not seek to form an antiWestern political coalition based on a counter-proposal or radically different vision of the world, they are concerned with maintaining their
independence of judgment and national action in a world that is increasingly economically and socially interdependent2. They consider that
state sovereignty trumps all, including, of 1 course, the political nature of its underpinning regimes. Thus the BRICS even the democratic
ones fundamentally diverge from the liberal vision of Western countries3. There is no better evidence of this today than the BRICS
this defensively strong coalition

remains weak on the offensive precisely because the sovereign
states that form it pursue narrow national objectives. Since they are very distrustful
opposition to any outside intervention in the countries affected by the Arab Spring. Yet

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the BRICS have

trouble interpreting sovereignty as anything other than a zero-sum
game, including among themselves. This narrow attachment to
sovereignty is both their strength and their great weakness.
of one another for a number of reasons, of which some are historical (Sino-Russian and Sino-Indian rivalry),

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2NC Link - Laidi Extension

Extend the Laidi 11 evidence- BRICS are directly
challenging United States influence in the world. They
want to impact the global system. This requires a new
BRICS agenda, such as standing multilateralism with
sensitive regions in the world, which our Mahapatra
evidence says is currently Latin America. BRICS and US
influence is zero-sum- both want sovereignty and global
power.

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2NC Link A2: Latin America

Relations Adv
Critical framing issue- they conceded the link in the 1AC
when they read an advantage that says they solve for US
influence in ALL Latin American countries aka Latin
America relations. This sets the link at 100%.
Double Bind- either the link to the disadvantage is 100%
OR they cant extend US influence into Latin America
enough to solve their Latin America relations advantage.

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2NC Link - Link Wall

The Laidi evidence also talks about how the only way the
BRICS can be successful in regional influence is if ALL of
the BRICS nations are inter-connected and coherent in
their strategy. That means that if we win that US
influence offsets ONE of the BRICS nations in Latin
America, we win the link
1. The US would offset Chinese influence in Latin America
Erikson and Chen 7 Daniel P. Erikson, Senior Associate for U.S. policy at the InterAmerican Dialogue and coeditor of Transforming Socialist Economies: Lessons for Cuba and Beyond, and
Janice Chen, joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown
University Law Center, former intern at Inter-American Dialogue (China, Taiwan, and the Battle for Latin
America, The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs Journal, Tufts University, Summer, 2007, 31 Fletcher F. World
Aff. 69, Available Online from Lexis Nexis Law Journals)
China's galloping entrance into the Latin American market for

energy resources and other commodities has been accompanied by
an accelerating pace of high-level visits by Chinese officials to the
region over the past few years. Though China's foreign policy strategy toward the developing world prioritizes South Asia and Africa
over Latin America, this last relationship has experienced explosive growth . In 2001,
Meanwhile,
Chinese President Jiang Zemin's landmark visit to the region sparked a wave of visits by senior officials and business leaders to discuss
the volume of trade between China and

the region has skyrocketed. President Hu Jintao traveled to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and
Cuba in 2004 and visited Mexico in 2005. The presidents of all those and other countries have paid reciprocal visits to
China. China's economic engagement with Latin America responds to
the requirements of a booming Chinese economy that has been growing at nearly 10
percent per year for the past quarter century. The economic figures are impressive: in the past six years, Chinese imports
from Latin America have grown more than six-fold , at a pace of some 60 percent a year,
political, economic, and military concerns. Since then,
to an estimated $ 60 billion in 2006. China has become a major consumer of food, mineral, and other primary products from Latin America,
benefiting principally the commodity-producing countries of South America--particularly Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Chile.
Chinese
investment in Latin America remains relatively small at some $ 6.5 billion through 2004, but that amount
represents half of China's foreign investment overseas . n9 China's Xinhua News
agency reported that Chinese trade with the Caribbean exceeded $ 2 billion in 2004, a 40 percent increase from the previous year. n10
China has promised to increase its investments in Latin America to $

100 billion by 2014, although government officials have since backed away from that pledge and several proposed
investments are already showing signs of falling short in Brazil, Argentina, and elsewhere. FIGURE 2. CHINA V. TAIWAN: TRADING WITH LATIN
Latin Americans are intrigued by the idea of China

as a potential partner for trade and investment. As a rising superpower without a colonial or
"imperialist" history in the Western Hemisphere, China is in many ways more politically
attractive than either the United States or the European Union , especially
AMERICA n11 [*75] For their part,
for politicians confronted with constituencies that are increasingly anti-American and skeptical of Western intentions. n12
Nevertheless, most analysts recognize that Latin America's embrace of China--to the extent
that this has actually occurred--is intimately linked to its perception of neglect and
disinterest from the United States. Nervousness about China's rise runs deeper among the smaller
economies such as those of Central America, which do not enjoy Brazil's or Argentina's abundance in export commodities and are inclined to
view the competition posed by the endless supply of cheap Chinese labor as a menace to their nascent manufacturing sectors.

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2- The US would offset Russias extended influencespecifically hurts the BRICS.

Sudarev 12 (Vladimir, Doctor of Political Science, Professor of the European and American
Countries History and Politics Department of the MGIMO University, 2/20 Is Russia returning to Latin
America? http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=252#top, Accesed 7/31/13, Keerthi)
Latin American region has recently been often mentioned among

new priority dimensions of Russian foreign policy . Despite the difficulties of both objective
and subjective nature, the comeback of Russia to Latin America can provide it with new reliable partners and strengthen its position in a
The nineties can be regarded as lost years for Russian

policy in Latin America. In fact, Russia didnt pursue any policy there. Traditionally, as in the Soviet times, this region
nascent multi-polar world.
stood low on the national foreign policy agenda. Of course, there have been undertaken some successful actions for example, in 1996-1997
Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov paid visits to the region during which the whole
package of agreements
on cooperation with Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, Colombia, and, most importantly, with
Brazil (about strategic partnership in the 21 century and creation of a greater Russia-Brazil committee) were signed. But these
actions were only sporadic, and the signed agreements turned out to be suspended. What is more, it was in the early 1990-s after Russias
withdrawal from Cuba, with abandoning the construction of about 500 major facilities and decreasing 30-fold trade turnover with this country
[1], when West-oriented Russia started to be perceived in Latin America as an unreliable partner. The U-turn in Russian foreign policy after
9/11 contributed to it greatly. Having declared about the readiness of Russia to join the US-sponsored anti-terrorist coalition, President Putin on
October 17, 2001 announced the withdrawal of the country from the only overseas strategic site - surveillance radar station in Lurdes on the
outskirts of Havana without prior notification of the Cuban side [2]. Make-or-break moment in the relationships with Latin America region
countries occurred in the wake of the Yeltzin era. Latin American countries themselves seem to have contributed a lot to it. Already in 1999 the
Rio Group uniting the regions leading states turned out to be, actually, the only grouping in the world which condemned the bombing of
Yugoslavia and pointed out in its declaration specific articles of the UN Charter violated by the NATO member- states [3]. In February 2003
Mexico and Chili as non-permanent UN SC members, in fact, vetoed the second Anglo-American resolution authorizing Iraq intervention,
despite their economic dependence on the USA. These actions seem to have made the Kremlin look at the perspectives of cooperation with
Latin American countries at a new angle. Thus, in March 2003 President Putin received in Kremlin the delegation of the Rio Group and held
official talks with them. Both sides agreed not to confine themselves to regular contacts (launched in 1995) within the framework of the UN
General Assembly, but also conduct meetings in Russia and countries of the Group member-states. By mid-decade the exchange of high level
delegations between the sides had intensified. Only one example, in November 2008 President Medvedev visited four countries during his tour
Medvedev remarked: we visited

we failed to pay due
attention to these countries before, and, to a certain extent, it is
only now that we are starting a full-fledged and I hope mutually
beneficial cooperation with the heads of these states and between
our economies . : We mustnt be shy and timid and be afraid of
competition . We must boldly engage in the battle . In order to display its
interest to the presence in the region Russia resorted to a number of
un-common and spectacular actions. In November 2008 a warship squadron with the fleet nuclear-powered
of the region - Peru, Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba. Commenting on his visit, President
the states which previous Russian leaders had never been to It means only that
cruiser Peter the Great of the Russian Navy as a flagship entered the territorial waters of US-hostile Venezuela to participate in joint naval
exercises of the North Fleet of the Russian Federation Navy. Simultaneously, within the framework of the resumed patrolling of the Atlantic and
The so-called
comeback of Russia to Latin America was to a great extent
preconditioned by the leftist drift in the region which resulted in the
emergence of the group of states that viewed the expanding
relations with Russia as an important lever for strengthening their
position in conflict relations with the USA. Many of these countries perceived Russia as the successor of
the Pacific oceans two Russian long-range strategic bombers landed at a Venezuelan naval base.
the former USSR might and influence, with the vision of a new world order of both sides being practically identical it should be multilateral,
not individually tailored to the interests of a single superpower. This position was set out in numerous joint documents signed at the summits
practically all the leaders of the most prominent Latin American countries paid official visits to Moscow during the first decade of the 21st
century. The breakthrough happened also in the military and technical field. Starting from 2004 Venezuela has begun purchases of scale of the
Russian arms to the amount of over $4bln. Russia established military and technical cooperation with other countries of the region apart from
Russia tried to establish

closer economic ties with its major partners in the region. At the end of the decade
Venezuela: Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Bolivia also procured Russian military hardware.
Russias oil and gas producing companies LUKOIL and GASPROM were already operating in Venezuela. RUSAL made heavy investments in
Trade between
Russia and the countries of the region has been roaring recently over
bauxite industry of Guyana. ROSNEFT got its chunk for oil exploration in Cuban shelf of the Mexican Gulf.
the last decade trade turnover has tripled and amounted to $15bln [4]. However, despite the qualitative changes in the structure of Russian
export the share of machinery and equipment has a little increased it still leaves much to be desired. Take Brazil, for example: mineral
fertilizers have made up 90% of Russian export, while Brazil has been exporting to Russia mostly meat and tropical goods. Largely, Brazil has
always been the weakest link of Russias regional policy despite its participation in the BRIC group. At any rate, the role of Brazil in Russias
foreign policy is much smaller than those of China and India. It should be recognized that Russia has failed so far to establish strategic
partnership with Brazil, which had been planned for as early as 1997. It can be largely attributed to the fact that Russian leadership has no
priority system in interacting with this country. The latter, from our perspective, is explained by poor understanding of how much intercomplimentary could be the interests of the two resource-rich countries in the decades to come. Unfortunately, China, and lately India have
been much more economically active in the region than Russia, filling the niches in the market that could have been well filled by Russia.

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Another question is why Brazilian dimension of Russian foreign policy is much weaker than the Chinese one? Why do we transfer to China, the
relationships with which in the 20th century were abundant with conflicts including the armed ones, unique military aircraft building
technologies, while denying this to Brazil with which we have never had conflicts or clashes on the international arena? Perhaps, it is the
residual principle inherent of the USSR leadership and successfully inherited in 1990-s by the Russian leadership that is applied to this region.
But, while the USSR used to have Cuba as a strategic partner, the Russian Federation, having curtailed the ties with the Island of Freedom,
didnt bother to start looking for new partners and paid as little attention to the relations with Brazil as with any other Latin American country.
If Russia is really interested in serious and politically influential partners, then it is the Brazil dimension that should be prioritized as the major
vector of Russian policy in the region. It means establishing a special system of partnership which will include an overhaul of the current
system of trade and economic relations, an introduction of a new system of preferential terms of advanced know-how transfer and exchange,
particularly in aerospace field. For that sake its necessary to maximally intensify the relations with Brazils leadership and take them to a
higher level, with the head of state or the government taking control of it. However, the growing understanding of the Russian upper echelons
of power of the necessity to shift the focus of economic cooperation with the countries of the region on to scientific and technical sphere
arouses certain optimism. It is in the field of advanced technologies where Russia is most competitive, and no wonder that the main emphasis
during the April 2010 visit of President Medvedev to the countries of the region was laid on this very issue. Low competitiveness of Russia visa-vis other countries undertaking huge efforts with a view to building up their political and economic position in this region continues to
persist. Besides, our investment capability is also much lower than that of USA, China, EU and even India. Nonetheless, in spite of the
the trend of Russias presence expansion in the

region may gain further momentum in the forthcoming decades, provided
adequate efforts are taken. In this case Latin American dimension of Russian
foreign policy has all chances to make it a separate independent
direction which can win Russia new beneficial partners and enhance
its position in a nascent multi-polar world.
difficulties, both objective and subjective,
3- US would also offset Brazil.

Crandall 11 Associate Professor of International Politics at Davidson College; Principal Director
for the Western Hemisphere at the U.S. Department of Defense in 2009; Director for Andean Affairs at the
National Security Council in 2010-11 (Russell Crandall, May-June 2011, Foreign Affairs Post-American
Hemisphere: Power and Politics in an Autonomous Latin America, 90.3, http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?
handle=hein.journals/fora90&div=49&g_sent=1)
Latin America's economic growth and political stability are

driving an unprecedented power shift within the region. Countries are
POWER PLAYS
reassessing their interests and alliances, and the more confident among them are flexing their muscles.
Instead of looking to Washington for guidance, Latin American

countries are increasingly working among themselves to conduct
diplomacy, pursue shared objectives, and, at times, even spark new rivalries. Brazil's
emergence as a serious power is a direct result of the increasing
absence of U.S. influence in the region . Sensing an opportunity to
gain the regional stature that has long eluded it, the country has
begun to act more assertively. But complicating Brazil's power play is the reaction from
its fellow Latin American nations. Colombian, Mexican, and Peruvian officials, among others, talk privately
about their dislike of Brazil's arrogant diplomacy. In some quarters, Brazil's responses to developments
such as Chavez's ongoing assault on Venezuela's democracy and even the 2009 coup in Honduras have
undermined its credibility as a serious leader. (Brasilia's reluctance to speak out for hemispheric
democracy is particularly inexcusable for a government that includes many officials who suffered under
the successive military regimes of the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.) Many Latin American officials quietly
reveal that they are not eager to see Brazil replace the United States as the hemisphere's hegemon. As
one diplomat recently put it, "The new imperialists have arrived, and they speak Portuguese."

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2NC Link US offsets BRICS

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2NC Internal Link BRICS Key to

Multipolarity
BRIC economic control displaces US hegemony and
unipolarity
Global Research News 13 (Center for Research on Globalization, 4/3/13, BRICS
Challenges Unipolar World and US Dollar Hegemony, http://www.globalresearch.ca/brics-challengesunipolar-world-and-us-dollar-hegemony/5329590, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi, acronyms: BRICS- Brazil,
Russia, India, China, South Africa Union)
The BRICS just became impossible to ignore . At the close of the Fifth annual BRICS Summit in Durban,
South Africa last week, there was little question that this group of five fast-growing economies was
underwriting an overhaul of the global economic and political order.
The eThekwini Declaration issued at summits end was couched in non-confrontational language, but it was manifestly clear that western hegemony and unipolarity were
The BRICS hit some major western sore spots
being targeted at this meeting.

by announcing the
formation of a $50 billion jointly-funded development bank to rival the IMF and World Bank. Deals were signed to increase inter-BRICS trade in their own currencies, further
A series of unmistakable challenges were

dealt to old world leaders: reform your institutions and economies
or well do it ourselves. Intent on filling a leadership void in global economic and financial affairs, the BRICS also
began to draw some firm political lines in the sand. For starters, the summit was focused on
eroding the US dollars status as the worlds reserve currency.
development in Africa a resource-rich continent where competing economic interests have drawn increasingly polarized geopolitical battle lines in the past few years. The
BRICS were invited to the African table via their newest member state, South Africa, and have used this opportunity to fully back the African Union (AU). The AU has been
Africas attempt to integrate and unify the continent economically - via the establishment of a single currency and development fund that could bypass the very punishing
IMF and militarily via the establishment of security/defense organizations and joint military forces, among other things. AU success would necessarily mean less oldstyle western imperialism in the region, reducing exploitative foreign economic activities and excluding foreign forces like the US militarys African Command (AFRICOM)
BRICS determination to anchor

any emerging global order in multilateralism whether by
demanding permanent seats within the UN Security Council, forging alternative
economic constructs that will shift the balance of power their way, or
proactively influencing outcomes in global conflict zones. Syria and Iran The
from engaging in the African military theater. At the heart of the Summits agenda lies the
Durban summit therefore was not going to ignore the two most prominent issues on UN Security Councils docket Syria and Iran. Last week, the BRICS collectively
rejected any further militarization of these problems, advocated political solutions negotiated through diplomatic initiatives, expressed concern over unilateral sanctions
and warned against infringement on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of these nations. The eThekwini Declaration says about Iran: We believe there is no
alternative to a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. We recognize Irans right to peaceful uses of nuclear energy consistent with its international obligations,
and support resolution of the issues involved through political and diplomatic means and dialogue. And on Syria, the BRICS fully backed the Geneva principles as the
framework for resolving the two-year conflict: We believe that the Joint Communiqu of the Geneva Action Group provides a basis for resolution of the Syrian crisis and
reaffirm our opposition to any further militarization of the conflict. A Syrian-led political process leading to a transition can be achieved only through broad national
dialogue that meets the legitimate aspirations of all sections of Syrian society and respect for Syrian independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty as expressed by
the Geneva Joint Communiqu and appropriate UNSC resolutions. The BRICS positions on Iran and Syria cannot, however, be viewed solely within the parameters of the
summits declaration. For starters, the statement is nothing new the BRICS have been advocating these points in some form or another since they issued their first
foreign policy communiqu in November 2011. To understand the depth and breadth of commitment behind these Mideast stances, one needs to look beyond the
sanitized, diplomat-speak of the summit environment. India, Brazil and South Africa, for instance, dont offer up much commentary on Syria and Iran they leave that to
their UNSC permanent-member colleagues in Russia and China, who are the BRICS front-men on these issues. Earlier in March, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited
Moscow on his first foreign trip as head of state, and told audiences there: We must respect the right of each country in the world to independently choose its path of
development and oppose interference in the internal affairs of other countries. A clear warning against aggressive western interventionism, Xis visit with Russias
Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of their strategic partnership in geopolitical affairs. On Syria, in particular, Russia has taken the BRICS lead with the blessing
of its fellow members including China so Moscows view of the situation is a critical one to analyze. The Russians have recently released a concept paper on the
importance of their participation in the BRICS a view that is likely to reflect similar priorities at the highest levels of fellow member states. BRICS drawing red lines
For all the BRICS, financial and

economic considerations are the driving momentum behind the
formalization of this strategic coalition. There is, say the Russians, a common desire of BRICS partners to reform
Putin and Xi say the one way to end the Syrian crisis is through dialogue [Xinhua]
the obsolete international financial and economic architecture which does not take into account the increased economic power of emerging market economies and
, a simultaneous rebalancing of
political power worldwide must also occur. Moscow believes that the BRICS can
potentially become a key element of a new system of global
governance primarily in the financial and economic areas. At the
same time, the Russian Federation stands in favor of positioning
BRICS in the world system as a new model of global relations,
overarching the old dividing lines between East and West, and North
and South. Its a bold new world , but theres real value in some of the old ways. For one, the BRICS are big proponents
of the Rule of Law in global affairs, concepts the West often tosses around, but rarely
developing countries. But for fundamental economic shifts to take place

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adheres to in pursuit of its own strategic interests, i.e. interventionism, regime-change,

militarization of conflict. For the Russians, an absolute BRICS priority is building on the
commitment by the participating states to the rule of law in
international relations, to progressively expand the foreign policy cooperation with BRICS partners in the interests of peace and security
with due respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of other states and non-interference in their internal affairs. The BRICS are backing the UN model to help
achieve these basic principles. For them, the vehicle is not what is broken the problem lies with its drivers. And in particular, the notion that regime change, sanctions
and military intervention are acceptable tools in international affairs. The BRICS, according to Moscow, can enhance in every possible way interaction within the UN as
well as to preserve and strengthen the UN Security Councils role as a body bearing the primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security; to prevent
the use of the UN, first of all the Security Council, to cover up the course towards removing undesirable regimes and imposing unilateral solutions to conflict situations,
including those based on the use of force. As an aside, its hardly a coincidence that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad sent a widely-reported letter to the BRICS during
the Summit. Here, after all, was the head of state of a sovereign nation requesting the help of the newly-ascendant BRICS in protecting the territorial integrity of Syria by
rebuffing blatant foreign interference in contradiction of the UN Charter. That letter hit all the BRICS soft spots: Rule of Law in international relations, preservation of
global peace and security, peaceful resolution of conflict, de-militarization and recognition of the importance of the BRICS in the new world order. Assads letter came
one day after the Arab League gave Syrias seat away to an external-based opposition coalition backed by Syrian foes a move the Russians called unlawful and invalid
and a hindrance to the peaceful resolution of the conflict. It may be that BRICS intended to set an example here. Receiving this letter at the summit clearly bestows
legitimacy on Assad and his claims and it is hard to imagine that this was not an event coordinated in advance. Moscows positions on the Syria issue cannot be seen
out of the context of these shared BRICS principles. The Russians may have more at stake in what is going on in Syria as others do in Iran but these are consistent red
lines in what the BRICS hope to achieve globally. And they are willing to bet on it too. Part of the wager is that faltering western economies are so far gone on their
current trajectories, that only time is required for these global shifts to materialize. In any regard, shortly after the Summit concluded Russia vowed to prevent any
measure in the UN Security Council to give Syrias seat to the opposition. The potential for chaos looms large though as a new political order emerges, and as a collective
the BRICS will not be shy about pushing their agendas hard a task made easier by the considerable clout they now share. On his flight back from Durban to Moscow last
Thursday, Putin ordered surprise large-scale military maneuvers in the Black Sea, which borders Syrian-foe Turkey a move most observers took as a warning for foreign
interventionists in Syria. It is unlikely that BRICS nations would go to such lengths to draw red lines and not defend those positions. How this would transpire in the cases
of Syria or Iran is uncertain it is unlikely we are going to see a BRICS army fighting battles anytime soon. On the other hand, these strategic relationships are likely to give
way to coordinated military positions and some special forces planning for exactly these kinds of scenarios. This is not hard to fathom. BRIC was just an acronym created
by Goldman Sachs to describe some fast-growing emerging economies a few years ago.
Today, they are engaged in
bilateral military exercises, funding banks, building institutions,

and remapping global priorities for the 21st century.

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Important CX Questions
What people from Mexico will be coming over to the US?
Will there be scientists?
How about students?
What about researchers in various fields like agriculture?
Is there currently movement of scientists between the US and Mexico?
If yes, non-inherent (?)
If no, theres your uniqueness to the DA.

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1NC
The plan causes a brain drain with Mexico saps all science and tech talent out of
the country.
Analuciadavila 13 (February 11, Mexicos Brain Drain: A Different Side
to the Story of Immigration., http://policyinterns.com/2013/02/11/mexicosbrain-drain-a-different-side-to-the-story-of-immigration/, Keerthi, Acc
10/23/13)
For most Mexican immigrants the American Dream means
opportunity. It represents the opportunity to work, earn money, and grow accordingly to your
efforts and skills. It also means promise. America promises that if you work hard, youll be rewarded, and
From the low-skill workers to the

bilingual professionals with Masters Degrees and even PhDs.,
Mexican immigrants believe in the American Dream. As they say, There
are two sides to every story and when it comes to immigration there are even more. This
if you have the willingness, youll earn it.
is the story about a particular type of immigrant, the ones that dont cover the newspaper headlines and
that did not risk their lives smuggling across the border. This is the story about Mexican legal immigrants
that happen to be qualified, educated, bilingual and brilliant. Ranked as the 4th major brain exporter in
Mexico has demonstrated that its rising middle class has

a greater access to tertiary education and a complex set of
opportunities to develop skills and become internationally competitive. However, being ranked only
the world in 2012,
behind Great Britain, Philippines and India should not be a flattering commemoration for the country, but a
big warning sign calling for the urgent revision of a greater question:
Why are these
Mexicans leaving? In the first place, Mexico is facing a qualified

employment deficit. While every year the amount of young adults graduating from
outstanding universities grows, the country is not generating enough highly qualified, well-paid and
College, Masters and PhDs graduates are

more often finding themselves overqualified for the few openings
they spot. According to the Migration Policy Institute: Mexicos supply of educated people is growing
satisfactory jobs for this population.
five times faster than the population, but job opportunities for professionals are not expanding as fast.
The lack of opportunities, the low wages, and the small amount of spaces available for young
adults to work in their specialized fields have led to a great frustration among the new
generations. Becoming a Nini [1] in Mexico is a major issue and one of the greatest concerns for any
student about to graduate. Although recently appointed President Enrique Pea Nieto has launched a
project to reduce the Mexican brain drain, the 15% increase in the federal budget designated to science
and technology and the 70,395 million pesos investment for this matter might not be enough to keep an
important part of the highly qualified migration in the country. Why? Mexicans feel they deserve better.
The climate of insecurity and violence that has affected the country in the
last years has become one of the greatest incentives for the wealthy and the
educated to emigrate. Those adequately prepared are the most informed and sensitive ones to the
insecurity issue in Mexico. Young adults feel disappointed, scared, frustrated, and tired. They are losing
hope and they feel betrayed by their country. They feel that their country cannot provide them with what
For these Mexicans, the

American Dream is just next-door and, unfortunately, the Mexican State is
failing to keep them from knocking on that door. Out of the 73,000 Mexicans
they deserve and that they have the right to feel safe.
with a Doctorate in 2010, approximately 20,000 were residing in the U.S., according to the U.S Current
Population Survey.
The talent magnet right across the border has
become the greatest destination for Mexicos brainpower, and

promises to be so for the following decades. More alarming for Mexico
should be President Obamas intentions to significantly increase the

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number of student visas granted every year for the fields of science
and engineering. Such incentives stimulate the brain drain and
threaten the development of Mexico in a highly globalized and
competitive world.
<Specific Link And/Or Impact>

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OV

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2NC/1NR Overview
Extend Analuciadavila 13 the brain drain is occurring now, but very slowly (nonunique Impact Turns). Mexico doesnt have the capacity to host national research
and educational capabilities due to inefficiency and over-qualification of scientists.
Thus, these students and scientists look for other venues to express their talent. The
plan specifically entices this talent magnet scientists would see the US as a talent
haven due to the plans ability for them to travel. This results in a brain drain; talent
is drained out of Mexico. <explain specific link if used>.
<Impact OV>
<Turns Case>

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Uniqueness
They should have thought about the DA uniqueness in cross-examination. My
partner specifically asked them Are people and scientists going between the US
and Mexico now? They said no, meaning there is no current brain drain ongoing in
the status quo.
Double Bind- either there is a brain drain going on, meaning the plan is non-inherent
and unnecessary, or there is no brain drain going on, which provides DA
uniqueness. They lose either way.

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Links

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Generic
More opportunity and demand for students in the US will cause a brain drain more
specialized visas links.
Torrest and Wittchen 12 (Mario Alberto Arauz Torres, Ph.D. student on
Resource Economics, MA of Science in Rural Development, Bachelor in
Agricultural Economics,
,Urszula Wittchen, Brain Drain across the Globe: Country Case Studies,
The number of Mexican immigrants leaving college campuses increases,
including the alumni of prestigious Monterrey Institute of Technology, known as Mexicos MIT. The press
exile themselves from a country that has

failed to lower the income and opportunity gap between it and its wealthy
claims that well-educated immigrants
northern neighbour, or provide basic security for its population (Corchado, 2008). According to the
International Organization for Migration, which studied the exodus of educated Mexicans to the United
States, an estimated 14,000 of the 19,000 Mexicans with doctorates live in the US, many in north Texas.
The number of Mexicans making leaving for the United States recently doubled in 2005 - from 275,000
emigrating annually ten years ago, to an estimated 500,000 a year nowadays - and this trend continues.
Nearly half of them are specialists or professionals, who immigrate

legally through special work visas.
The Mexican government makes efforts to
strengthening ties with Mexican expatriates, as part of the Mexicans Abroad Program, and the new Red de
Talentos (Network of Talents), which targets Mexican entrepreneurs. The idea is to encourage investment in
Mexico to create jobs there, and maybe to bring some of them back. But there are also mental barriers,
difficult to surmount. A good exemplification of the growing unwillingness and rising difficulties with
making the decision to return among migrants who have successfully spent a long time abroad can be
found in the words of the Mexican potential expat in the US, who first believed that if only there were a
true democracy in Mexico, if only there were a more open economy, if only Mexico were more closely
linked to the United States through a free trade agreement, if only there were more jobs and no peso crises
- then Mexican workers would stay home to raise their families and build their country rather than making
the journey to the US. But now, when many of these expectations have become a reality, t he
old if
onlys have been replaced by new ones: If only jobs in Mexico paid
better, if only free trade brought more benefits, if only the political
parties werent always fighting, if only there werent so many drug
killings. And if only there wasnt such a demand in the United
States for young, ambitious students like them
(Corchado, 2008).

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Guest Workers
Guest Workers cause a brain drain empirically proven.
CSM 12 (Mexican emigration: safety valve or brain drain?,
http://www.csmonitor.com/1981/1217/121733.html/(page)/2, Keerthi, Acc
4/24/13)
The growing flow of Mexicans into the United States represents a ''safety valve'' for
Mexico's whopping unemployment problem. Right? Reverse brain drain: Economic shifts lure migrants home Latin America Monitor Mixed feelings south
of the border on Senate immigration plan Opinion Mexico should take a more active stance on US immigration reform Traditional wisdom would have it so. But there is
evidence that the flow actually may not be such a boon. In fact, new studies of the issue indicate the migration could become a source of potential social trouble for
Those going to the US tend to be more productive and

better educated than those who remain, so the flow is something of
a brain drain. Although the evidence is still sketchy, the migrants average four years of schooling, while similar young people remaining in Mexico
average 3.1 years. * The flow of migrants to the US is now more heavily from the
cities than the countryside, and those who take their places in the cities, such as Mexico City and Guadalajara, are less skilled. The
Mexico, for these reasons: *
result is that jobs are being scaled down or replaced by machines - and if the migrants return, they won't find the same jobs. * While the migrants are supposed to be
sending home between $1 billion and $ 1.5 billion annually, these remittances may not be so high, and the money appears to be wasted by many of the recipients.
These are ''adverse consequences
(of the migration) that should cause Mexico concern,'' says Dr. Allen Newman,
professor of economics and finance at the University of New Orleans, speaking here at a conference on Mexico and the US in the 1980s. The meeting was cosponsored by
Tulane University and the International Trade Mart here. Although not all observers are so negative about the consequences of the flow on Mexico, a reassessment of the
issue is being called for. The exact number of Mexicans going the US yearly is hard to ascertain because so many of them are undocumented. But speakers at the
meeting suggested that it ranges between 500,000 and 2 million yearly.
Many come for short periods, seeking
temporary work, and then return home . The flow is larger than any similar immigrant tide in Europe or
elsewhere. But in the view of many of the speakers it is the worst sort of flow since it is ''uncontrolled.'' Can it be controlled? Most observers think not. Edwin Chauvin,
district director of the Immigration and Naturalization Service in New Orleans, said, ''It has proven impossible to seal the border.'' He and others suggested that the best
Reagan administration's ''guest worker''

program and then seek to impose punitive measures on those employers in the US who employ Mexican ''illegals.'' Dr.
possible solution now would be to go along with the
Newman doubts that the Reagan program will work effectively. Its proposal to regularize 50,000 entries yearly ''is a drop in the bucket,'' and he adds that he is not
particularly optimistic about ''any program getting through Congress.'' But even with approval of such programs,
continue
the tide is likely to
until Mexico finds solutions to its employment problem. At the moment, with Mexico's population soaring at a 3 percent increase yearly, about
the
immigrant flow results in part because of a vacuum. ''The undocumented are here,'' says Dr.
Newman, ''because they fill a need .''
850,000 new jobs are needed to take care of young Mexicans coming on the job market annually. Mexico is creating only about one-third of that total. In the US,

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TN/E-2/EB-5 Visas
The plans type of visas specifically entices a brain drain.
Hennemuth 2013 (Elizabeth Hennemuth, May, Unintended
Consequences Considering Mexicos Stability when Designing U.S.
Immigration Reform, The Project on International Peace and Security, The
College of William and Mary,
http://www.wm.edu/offices/itpir/_documents/pips/20122013/hennemuth_e_brief.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/23/13)
More visas for highly skilled and educated workers wokuld create
opportunities for middle-class Mexicans seeking employment, safety, and a better future
for their children. A large-scale influx of Mexican professionals into the
United States would deny Mexico the economic, political, and social
leaders needed to enact President Pena Nietos proposed reforms.
Mexicos brain drain. One in three Mexicans with PhDs and one in seven Mexicans with Masters degrees
live in the United States.160 From 1971 to 2008, Mexico lost 2,100 scientists and more than 140
billion pesos the Mexican government invested in their education.161 Mexicans have several
means to pursue nonimmigrant educational and employment migration, such as
through the NAFTA Professional (TN) visa , which has had no
numerical limit since 2004.162 Furthermore, from 2000-2012, the number of nonimmigrant Mexicans
investing significant capital in U.S. businesses through E-2 NAFTA
visas doubled.163 Moreover, the number of Mexicans immigrating on the
EB-5 visa , which aims to grow the U.S. economy through
immigrants capital investment and job creation in U.S. businesses,
has recently increased.164 Mexicos brain drain likely would worsen as immigration reform makes it
easier for professionals, especially those in STEM fields, to immigrate to the United States legally. In an April 2013 report,
the Banco de Mxico and the Migration Policy Institute predicted more Mexican migration in skilled employment sectors,
as well as an overall return to net migration inflows of 230,000 to 330,000 annually, between 2011 and 2017.165
Many educated professionals cannot find employment in their fields

in Mexico. For example, in 2012, President Calderon reported that 130,000 engineers and technicians
graduate from Mexican universities and specialized high schoolsmore
than in Canada, Germany, or Brazil.166 But the number of Mexicans employed as engineers has barely grown, increasing
from 1.1 million in 2006 to 1.3 million in 2012.167 Engineering students often take technician jobs for which they are over-
In contrast, 4 of the top 10 fastest-growing sectors of the

U.S. economy are in STEM fields.169 Environmentally conscious building construction, which is
qualified.168
predicted to grow 22.8 percent over the next 5 years, would likely attract skilled labor and engineers.170

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Trade I/L
Brain drain kills the Mexican economy
Millan 2011 (Omar Millan, Alejandro Daz Bautista, a member of Mexicos National Council of
Science and Technology and an economics professor at the College of the Northern Border, December 13
2011, Mexicos brain drain to U.S. a phenomenal loss,
http://www.sandiegored.com/noticias/21150/Mexico-s-brain-drain-to-U-S-a-phenomenal-loss/, Keerthi, Acc
10/23/13)
TIJUANA
The brain drain and flight of human capital of Mexicans who immigrate north Is the
equivalent of transferring $6 billion annually to the U nited States,

about .5 per cent of that countrys GNP , said a leading researcher. Alejandro Daz
Bautista, a member of Mexicos National Council of Science and Technology
and an economics professor at the College of the Northern Border, said that the number of Mexican professionals living
abroad in the last few years grew by 153 per cent, from 411,000 to 1.3 million. This exodus
constitutes a phenomenal economic loss for Mexico in the last six years, he
said. The investment made developing that capacity is lost, as is the
possibility that these professionals work will contribute to Mexicos
development and economic growth, he said. This migration involves
talented people already educated, such as scientists, who move from Mexico to the United
States or other developed countries. Their departure is principally driven by the lack of opportunities, by the search for
better salaries, and for greater security and a better standard of life. In
todays knowledge-based
world, its more valuable to have these minds who can contribute to
economic development than to take away the product of a gold mine or a part of a countrys oil, Daz
Bautista said. In the last few years, its estimated that more than five million Mexicans with an education above high
school have decided to move to the United States, which shows that the programs to bring them back home have failed.
Developing countries such as Mexico need a public policy that tries to retain its qualified professionals by offering them
better employment options and incentives to those who have left to return home to contribute to their countrys economy,
he said. He said that Mexico has generated 8 million professionals in the last few years, and that 900,000 of them are
already in the United States. He said that at least 125,000 people with a masters or doctorates have left the country.
Among the Latin American countries, Mexicos suffers the most

from this brain drain.
He said that loss will have grave consequences for years to come.
The Mexican economy is key to the global economy and free trade.
Harcourt 13 (Tim Harcourt, March 13 2013, Mexicos Moment: Why is Latin
Americas economic spotlight shifting away from Brazil?,
http://www.theglobalist.com/mexicos-moment/, Keerthi, Acc 4/24/13)
Reaching key areas such as taxation, social security, education,
pensions and competition policy, these reform measures although long overdue
are bound to have a significant economic effect. Most specifically, they are
expected to lead to a sustainable GDP growth rate of 5% a year going forward. This compares to a rate of
there is Mexicos globalization story.

Mexico is an open economy, with trade accounting for 60% of GDP. It
is favorably connected to two-thirds of the global economy via its
arsenal of free-trade agreements (FTAs). As both a Pacific and an Atlantic country,
Mexico has strong global economic connections by sea and by air.
Mexico is an enthusiastic supporter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the
Pacific Alliance within Latin America. The TPP countries represent a market of
only 2% over the past decade. Second,
658 million people

interest from Mexico.
and a combined GDP of $20.7 trillion, so it has not surprisingly attracted
You can see the globalization of the Mexican

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most clearly by going to Monterrey. According to Rolando Zubiran, the states deputy
minister for foreign investment, 80% of U.S.-Mexican economic activity passes through Monterrey, with its
two railroad lines, large automotive sector, healthcare sector and 127 industrial parks.
Free trade prevents nuclear war and controls the proximate for ALL conflictprevents a rally around the flag effect- statistics are on our side.
Fouda 12 (October 2012, Protectionism and Free Trade: A Countrys Glory
or Doom? International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, No.
5, http://www.ijtef.org/papers/226-CF312.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
Protectionists fault the free trade model as being reverse protectionism in disguise, that of using tax policy to protect
foreign manufacturers from domestic competition. By ruling out revenue tariffs on foreign products, government must
fully rely on domestic taxation to provide its revenue, which falls heavily disproportionately on domestic manufacturing.
As Paul Craig Roberts [10] (US Falling Behind Across the Board) notes: "Foreign
discrimination of US
products is reinforced by the US tax system, which imposes no appreciable tax burden on foreign goods
and services sold in the US but imposes a heavy tax burden on US producers of goods and services regardless of whether
it is the stated policy of

most First World countries to eliminate protectionism through free
trade policies enforced by international treaties and organizations
such as the World Trade Organization. Despite this, many of these countries still place
protective and/or revenue tariffs on foreign products to protect some favored or politically influential industries. This
creates an artificially profitable industry that discourages foreign
innovation from taking place. Moreover, protectionist quotas can cause foreign producers to become more
they are sold within the US or exported to other countries." Moreover,
profitable, mitigating their desired effect. This happens because quotas artificially restrict supply, so it is unable to meet
demand; as a result the foreign producer can command a premium price for its products. These increased profits are
My point of view, as a freshman economist is to try to

understand the degree in which countries have suffered or gained
out of these two principles. In spite of evidence of damage caused by trade restrictions,
pressure for more "protectionist" laws persists. Who is behind this, and why? Those
known as quota rents (CEE). [11]
who gain from "protectionist" laws are special-interest groups, such as some big corporations, unions, and farmers' groups
all of whom would like to get away with charging higher prices and getting higher wages than they could expect in a free
marketplace. These
special interests have the money and political clout for
influencing politicians to pass laws favorable to them. Politicians in

turn play on the fears of uninformed voters to rally support for
these laws. Who are therefore the losers in this international
game? YOU
and all other ordinary consumers. Your freedom is being trampled into the dust by these laws, and
you are literally being robbed, through taxes and higher prices, in order to line the pockets of a few politically-privileged
"fat cats." This situation made it clear to economists mind that some are favored while others...also "Protectionism is a
misnomer. The only people protected by tariffs, quotas and trade restrictions are those engaged in uneconomic and
Free trade is the only philosophy compatible with

international peace and prosperity." by Walter Block [12] (Senior Economist, Fraser Institute,
Canada). Moreover, another great economist pointed out the fact that, the world enjoyed its
wasteful activity.
greatest economic growth during the relatively free trade period of

1945-1970, a period that also saw no major wars.
Yet we again see trade barriers
being raised around the world by short-sighted politicians. Will the world again end up in a shooting war as a result of
these economically-deranged policies?
nuclear age?
Well, I think
Can we afford to allow this to happen in the
not really ...because I suppose there is still much to cover, for this
better world were all fighting for . Another great economist pointed out the fact that, the
economic war fought in our world today is due to a huge variety of
economic philosophy of nationalism, as quoted below. " What

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generates war is the economic philosophy of nationalism:

embargoes, trade and foreign exchange controls, monetary
devaluation, etc. The philosophy of protectionism is a philosophy of
war. Ludwig Von Mises
(Great Economist).

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2nc trade OV
Extend the trade impact. Mexicos brain drain would kill their economic status the
scientific expertise leaving Mexico would be otherwise used to boost economic
status and productivity. Mexicos economy depends on middle-skilled workers that
would leave. Mexican economic vitality is key to global trade agreements and
subsequently the success of free trade. It acts as a motivator for the rest of Latin
America to hop on board free trade agreements like the TPP. Free Trade accounts for
60% of their GDP.
Free Trade controls the proximate cause for all major conflicts Fouda 12 indicates
that free trade policy is vital to influence politicians to not go to war due to
globalization and the interconnectedness of economics. Empirics prove- all times of
peace marked highs in free trade. Delving into protectionism causes nationalist rally
around the flag sentiment that causes war over exchange and nuclear conflicts

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2nc royal impact

Economic decline increases the risk of warthere is strong statistical support.


particularly for difficult [end page 213] to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood


& Hess, 2002. p. 89)
in
the likelihood of
terrorism
which has the


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sitting
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governments have increased incentives to


more attention.
economic crises. As

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2nc griswold impact

Trade interdependence is the biggest disincentive for war- maintaining globalization
solves all their impacts.
Griswold 2005 (Daniel, president of the National Association of Foreign
Trade Zones, former director of the Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy
Studies at the Cato Institute, BA in Journalism from Univ. of WisconsinMadison, Diploma in Economics, MA in Politics of the World Economy from the
London School of Economics, 12/28/13, Peace on Earth? Try Free Trade
among Men, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5344, Accessed
11/28/12, Keerthi)
As one little-noticed headline on an Associated Press story recently reported, "War declining worldwide,
the number of
armed conflicts around the world has been in decline for the past
half-century. In just the past 15 years, ongoing conflicts have
dropped from 33 to 18, with all of them now civil conflicts within
countries. As 2005 draws to an end, no two nations in the world are at war with each other. The
death toll from war has also been falling. According to the AP story, " The number killed in
battle has fallen to its lowest point in the post-World War II period,
dipping below 20,000 a year by one measure. Peacemaking missions, meanwhile,
studies say." According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
are growing in number." Those estimates are down sharply from annual tolls ranging from 40,000 to
100,000 in the 1990s, and from a peak of 700,000 in 1951 during the Korean War. Many causes lie behind
the good news -- the end of the Cold War and the spread of democracy, among them -- but
expanding trade and globalization appear to be playing a major role .

Far from stoking a "World on Fire," as one misguided American author has argued, growing commercial ties
First,
trade and globalization have reinforced the trend toward democracy,
and democracies don't pick fights with each other. Freedom to trade nurtures
between nations have had a dampening effect on armed conflict and war, for three main reasons.
democracy by expanding the middle class in globalizing countries and equipping people with tools of
With trade comes more

travel, more contact with people in other countries, and more
exposure to new ideas. Thanks in part to globalization, almost two thirds of the world's
countries today are democracies -- a record high. Second, as national economies
become more integrated with each other, those nations have more
to lose should war break out. War in a globalized world not only
means human casualties and bigger government, but also ruptured
trade and investment ties that impose lasting damage on the
economy. In short, globalization has dramatically raised the economic cost of war. Third,
globalization allows nations to acquire wealth through production
and trade rather than conquest of territory and resources.
Increasingly, wealth is measured in terms of intellectual property,
financial assets, and human capital. Those are assets that cannot be
seized by armies. If people need resources outside their national borders, say oil or timber or farm
communication such as cell phones, satellite TV, and the Internet.
products, they can acquire them peacefully by trading away what they can produce best at home.

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Aerospace I/L
Brain drain kills the Mexican economy
Millan 2011 (Omar Millan, Alejandro Daz Bautista, a member of Mexicos National Council of
Science and Technology and an economics professor at the College of the Northern Border, December 13
2011, Mexicos brain drain to U.S. a phenomenal loss,
http://www.sandiegored.com/noticias/21150/Mexico-s-brain-drain-to-U-S-a-phenomenal-loss/, Keerthi, Acc
10/23/13)
TIJUANA
The brain drain and flight of human capital of Mexicans who immigrate north Is the
equivalent of transferring $6 billion annually to the U nited States,

about .5 per cent of that countrys GNP , said a leading researcher. Alejandro Daz
Bautista, a member of Mexicos National Council of Science and Technology
and an economics professor at the College of the Northern Border, said that the number of Mexican professionals living
abroad in the last few years grew by 153 per cent, from 411,000 to 1.3 million. This exodus
constitutes a phenomenal economic loss for Mexico in the last six years, he
said. The investment made developing that capacity is lost, as is the
possibility that these professionals work will contribute to Mexicos
development and economic growth, he said. This migration involves
talented people already educated, such as scientists, who move from Mexico to the United
States or other developed countries. Their departure is principally driven by the lack of opportunities, by the search for
better salaries, and for greater security and a better standard of life. In
todays knowledge-based
world, its more valuable to have these minds who can contribute to
economic development than to take away the product of a gold mine or a part of a countrys oil, Daz
Bautista said. In the last few years, its estimated that more than five million Mexicans with an education above high
school have decided to move to the United States, which shows that the programs to bring them back home have failed.
Developing countries such as Mexico need a public policy that tries to retain its qualified professionals by offering them
better employment options and incentives to those who have left to return home to contribute to their countrys economy,
he said. He said that Mexico has generated 8 million professionals in the last few years, and that 900,000 of them are
already in the United States. He said that at least 125,000 people with a masters or doctorates have left the country.
Among the Latin American countries, Mexicos suffers the most

from this brain drain.
He said that loss will have grave consequences for years to come.
Mexican economic collapse kills their manufacturing sector uniquely affects the
manufacturing hotspot near the US border.
Villarreal 10 [9/16/10, M. Angeles Villarreal is an Analyst in International
Trade and Finance in the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the
Congressional Research Service. The Mexican Economy After the Global
Financial Crisis, Congressional Research Service
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41402.pdf]
Manufacturing industries have been severely affected by the decline
in external demand, particularly in high-value-added industries. The sharp drop in
exports to the United States led to a large drop in industrial produ ction. As a result,
business and consumer confidence has weakened to record lows and
subsequently has put downward pressure on consumption and
investment.26 Job losses in Mexico increased in 2008 and 2009, with possibilities of further job losses in
export-oriented assembly plants as they cut capacity due to the downturn in demand. The annual growth rate of Mexicos
industrial production decreased from 5.7% in 2006 to -0.6% in 2008 and to -10.1% in 2009. A higher demand for Mexican
exports to the United States and a projected improvement in Mexicos domestic economy are expected to result in higher
industrial production in the next two years. Production growth is projected to reach 4.1% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011.27
The economic crisis, combined with the increased violence along the U.S.-Mexico border, has hurt
the manufacturing industry, and many of Mexicos export-oriented

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assembly plants have shut down in recent years, especially along the U.S.-Mexico
border. A majority of these exportoriented plants have U.S. parent
companies, though some parent companies are located in Asia and Europe. The border region
with the United States has the highest concentration of assembly
plants and workers.
Ciudad
Jurez, Chihuahua, the city with the highest
concentration of jobs in export assembly plants, has experienced the

highest job losses,
as a result of lower U.S. demand and the drugrelated violence that has occurred in this
manufacturing city over the past two years. Manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juarez decreased from 214,272 in July
2007 to 168,011 in December 2009, a loss of 46,261 jobs (22% decrease). In Tijuana, Baja California, employment
decreased from 174,105 in July 2007 to 136,957 in December 2009, a loss of 37,148 jobs (21% decrease). The total
number of export-oriented manufacturing plants in Mexico increased from 5,083 in July 2007 to 5,245 in December 2009.
However, employment decreased from 1,910,112 in July 2007 to 1,641,465 in December 2009, a loss of 268,647 jobs
(14% decrease).28
Mexican manufacturing key to the aerospace industry

PR Newswire 11 ("Mexico Becoming a New Manufacturing World Hub in
the Aerospace Market, PR Newswire. 7/28/11. LexisNexis Library)

Mexico has a strong framework to become a leading world
manufacturing hub for the aerospace industry; that was the message coming out of the Second Annual
Baja California International Aerospace Supplier Forum, a business-to-business exhibition and networking event held last week in Tijuana, Mexico. Mexico
has the second largest fleet of private aircraft in the world after the United States,
is the tenth largest supplier to the United States market, and has
become one of the largest recipients of aerospace foreign direct
investments over the past two years. In an exclusive interview, Flavio Diaz Miron, chairman of the Mexican
Federation of Aerospace Industries, A.C. Company, Goodrich Aerospace Mexico, among others, as well as several manufacturing providers. The State of the Mexican
The Mexican aerospace manufacturing market

continues its evolution; from simple assemblies, aero-parts manufacturing, and industry consolidation that provides special education
and training programs, to the development of a fuselage manufacturing hub
manufacturing specialized parts and products. According to FEMIA, there are
strong and promising signs of growth for the aerospace
manufacturing market that includes: Exports of aerospace parts are
predicted to grow by 12 percent in 2011, from $3.1 billion in 2010 to $3.5 billion, and they are expected to increase further to $7.5
billion in 2015.Direct jobs are expected to grow by 28 percent in 2015, from
29,000 in 2010 to 37,000 in 2015 .The number of aerospace manufacturing companies
operating in Mexico is expected to increase from 232 in 2010 to more than 350
in 2015. In order for the Mexican market to move into the next phase to become a full airplane assembly hub with design and innovation standards, Diaz Miron
Aerospace Market and Key Forecasts
expressed the need to "approve the plans for final assembling of products in Mexico, and the government's support to provide a legal framework to offer internationally-
what makes Mexico an attractive

destination for international aerospace investors, Diaz Miron considers the following as key drivers:
Ability to meet requirements and delivery of schedules Ability to
meet business objectives, particularly cost efficiencies Accessibility to raw materials for
production Economic, social, and political stability of the Mexican market Highly educated
population with great engineering and technical skills to minimize the learning curve Strong and visionary government support, and state commitment to
recognized certifications." Key Mexican Investment Drivers When asked about
providing the infrastructure needed John Walsh, president of world-renowned consulting firm Walsh Aviation which advises more than 70 firms in the world in 10 different
Proximity to the San Diego and Southern California region

resources for the aerospace manufacturing market The
Mexican government's support of the aerospace industry and its significant
commitment into strengthening the Mexican economy by adding jobs and advancing education through technical
countries, also added the following factors that attract international investors to Mexico:
which have relevant
training programs. International firms with operations in Mexico are already benefiting from the investment drivers. For example, "Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and
as the Mexican market

looks to be a full airplane assembly hub with design and innovation
standards, there are already early signs of success on this path. For
Bombardier are already working and buying parts from Mexican suppliers," according to Diaz Miron. And
example, "the design area has been growing so much, that companies like General Electric are opening a design center in Queretaro, adding more market value," added
Diaz Miron. "A lot of positive things are happening in Mexico as it continues developing strong business partnerships and work skills become stronger," said Diaz Miron.

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We are moving in the right direction." Mexico, an International Hub of Opportunities When asked about Mexico as
important that people recognize that
Mexico is a manufacturing country soon changing into an
engineering research stage. Mexico has the pillar of human capital with highly-qualified engineers and technicians coming out of
schools and universities that offer the curricula aerospace firms need to succeed in
the industry." Walsh explained that, "the Mexican aerospace industry grew from producing 700 aircrafts
per year to 1,000 per year which is a big step, and I believe it could go up to 1,400 by 2014." Walsh added, "International
investors would previously go to markets like Bangladesh or Indonesia for their aerospace operations, but now they know it hasn't been working. Instead, Mexico
offers the right size of operation and is the right place to be," he concluded.
"
an international aerospace manufacturing player, Diaz Miron said, "it is
Mexican aerospace is key to US aerospace investments

Taylor 13 (Guy, Aerospace: An Emerging Mexican Industry, Americas
Quarterly, Winter, http://www.americasquarterly.org/content/aerospaceemerging-mexican-industry)

What began as an initial push into Mexico by U.S. manufacturers
such as General Electric during the years following the 1994 enactment of the North American
Free Trade Agreement has now emerged as one of the nations most vibrant
sectors. With 30,000 Mexicans now employed in aerospace factories
across 16 of the nations 31 states, Mexican government investment
in the sector is also growingmost measurably through the establishment of training schools
and new university programs aimed at delivering a future crop of homegrown aerospace workers, plant
managers and possibly even designers. The nation graduated more engineers per capita than Germany in
While the states of Quertaro and Baja California make up the

majority of aerospace production in Mexico, recent developments in
Chihuahua City deserve a closer look. Ford Motor Company opened a factory in 1983
and has since built nearly 7 million truck engines. Thirty-six aerospace parts factories
have opened in Chihuahua City over the past five years. A recent
reporting trip there revealed that the vast majority of the factories
are not Mexican-ownedwhich makes Mexicos aerospace market
unique in the hemisphere. The downside of this is that the country may be used increasingly
for its cheap labor by profit-hungry companies from more established markets. But the upside
finds Mexico emerging as a new center of globalization. A variety of
international companies have recently opened new plants in
Chihuahua City: U.S.-based supplier Nordam, which makes
everything from airplane windows to cockpit doors ; France-based Manior
2012.
Aerospace, which cuts shiny precision-shaped steel discs that end up on Boeing commercial jets; and
Netherlands-based Fokker Technologies.
Strong aerospace industry key to airpower

Lexington Institute 13 [Public policy think tank, America Is A
Superpower Because It Is An Air Power, 1/24, http://www.defenseaerospace.com/article-view/release/142016/air-power-makes-america-asuperpower.html]

Finally, the U.S. is the dominant air power in the world because of its
aerospace industrial base. Whether it is designing and producing
fifth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35, providing an
advanced tanker like the new KC-46 or inventing high-flying
unmanned aerial systems like the Global Hawk, the U.S. aerospace
industry continues to set the bar . In addition, the private and public
parts of the aerospace industrial base, often working together based on

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is able to move
aircraft, weapons and systems through the nationwide system of
depots, Air Logistics Centers and other facilities at a rate unmatched by any other nation.
collaborative arrangements such as performance-based logistics contracts,
The ability to rapidly repair or overhaul aircraft is itself a force

multiplier , providing more aircraft on the flight line to support the
warfighters.
Air Force is key to deterrence - decline causes global nuclear war and conflict
Thompson, March 2013--Loren B., PhD, Intelligence, Surveillance, and
Reconnaissance, Lexington Institute,

www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/AirDominan
ce-ISR.pdf
The U nited S tates has enjoyed global air dominance for many decades. No
U.S. soldier on the ground has been killed by hostile aircraft since the Korean War, and no U.S. pilot in the air has been killed by hostile aircraft
since the Vietnam War.1 U.S. air dominance has been preserved by pouring vast amounts of money into technology and training, far
surpassing the efforts of other nations. The scale of this funding was driven by an awareness of how crucial air dominance was to other facets
since the Cold

War ended, modernization efforts in the Air Force and Navy -- the main providers of U.S.
air dominance -- have lagged. Plans to replace Air Force bombers, tankers and reconnaissance aircraft were canceled or delayed,
of warfighting, plus the fear that a few mis-steps might result in America losing its edge in the air. However,
while programs to recapitalize tactical air fleets in both services were repeatedly restructured. In addition, efforts to develop next- generation
intelligence, navigation, communication, missile-warning and weather satellites have fallen far behind schedule. As a result, the joint inventory
of fixed-wing aircraft and orbital systems enabling air dominance has aged considerably. Unmanned aircraft are an exception to this trend, but
While modernization of airborne and orbital assets was

lagging, the global threat environment changed. China emerged as the
world's second-largest economy, pursuing regional security objectives with increasing vigor. Rogue states of varying
stripe developed w eapons of m ass d estruction and the means to deliver them.
Non-state actors with extreme agendas were empowered by the
proliferation of new military tools and techniques. And the focus of global security shifted from
their utility in contested airspace is unproven.
technologies in which only a few countries could play, such as long-range ballistic missiles, to technologies in which many players could
If recent trends persist, the U nited S tates will gradually lose

its claim to global air dominance. Marked 17:44 That claim is already being challenged in the Western
Pacific, where a scattered and aging U.S. air fleet is faced with growing Chinese investment in new aircraft and air defenses. When
China's increasing military might is combined with its intrinsic geographical advantages in the region,
the possibility arises that America may cease to be the dominant air
power in what has become the industrial heartland of the new global
economy.2 Similar outcomes could occur in other regions, because
with recent advances in surface-to-air missiles, multi-spectral
sensors, tactical networks and other military systems, it is no longer
necessary to match every aspect of U.S. air power in order to defeat
it. With all that in mind, the Lexington Institute embarked on a year-long inquiry into the requirements for maintaining U.S. global air
develop deep expertise.
dominance. The inquiry focused on the four core components of air dominance: intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance; air superiority;
long- range strike; and mobility. In each area, the inquiry sought to understand the current force structure and modernization programs being
funded, and then identify gaps in future capabilities that need to be addressed. It also examined alternative approaches to satisfying
operational requirements, and explored how those alternatives might be implemented in varying fiscal circumstances. A series of working
The present study is

about intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance -- typically referred to among airpower practitioners as "ISR." Timely, precise insights into enemy
actions and intentions have always been valuable in warfare, but
with the coming of the information revolution they have assumed
overriding importance because there are now so many options for
collecting, analyzing and exploiting relevant data. Air power provides
a unique perspective on modern warfare, because there are some features of military activity that
can only be captured from above. Airborne ISR also generates information essential
groups and studies were conducted in support of the final report, to be issued in Spring of 2013.

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to the deterrence of aggression, the enforcement of arms-control

treaties , and the prevention of nuclear proliferation . In a world of rapidly changing
technology and diverse threats,
constant vigilance is a necessary cost of preserving
the peace, and providing that vigilance is an overarching mission of

the nation's air forces.

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Science I/L
Brain drain kills Mexican science base.
Arenas 1 (J.L. de Arenas, Sensei Scholar, Mexican scientific brain drain:
causes and impact, http://scholar.qsensei.com/content/p32x, Keerthi, Acc
10/24/13)
Despite programmes to accelerate training in science in Mexico since the 1970s, the indigenous
science base is thin. Mexican PhD graduates were counted in North
American universities and their disciplines identified . The number of
doctorate recipients currently recognised by the Mexican
government as national researchers was counted. The results imply
that the Mexican governments efforts to strengthen scientific
research are unfocussed, being based on the erratic selection of
institutions and disciplines of study. Brain drain is assumed, which
may be associated with the lack of ability of Mexican institutions to
absorb and use fully trained people.
Mexican and Latin American science base is key to science diplomacy.

Albornoz et al. 10 (Mario Albornoz, Mariano Matos Macedo, Claudio
Alfaraz, United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization,
UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT 2010, http://www.unesco.org/new/en/naturalsciences/science-technology/prospective-studies/unesco-sciencereport/unesco-science-report-2010/)
If more countries are participating in science, we are also seeing a
shift in global influence. China is a hairs breadth away from counting more researchers than
either the USA or the European Union, for instance, and now publishes more scientific articles than Japan.
Even countries with a lesser scientific capacity are finding that they
can acquire, adopt and sometimes even transform existing technology and thereby leapfrog over
certain costly investments, such as in infrastructure like land lines for telephones. Technological
progress is allowing these countries to produce more knowledge and
participate more actively than before in international networks and research partnerships
with countries in both North and South. This trend is fostering a democratization of
science worldwide. In turn, science diplomacy is becoming a key
instrument of peace-building and sustainable development in international relations.
On a political level, there has also been greater government interest
in promoting a science culture and citizen participation. Latin America has
been no stranger to the trend towards democratization of knowledge. Many
surveys of the public perception of science have been conducted in recent years, as a result of the
creation of a network within which academics and officials of national S&T organizations
in Latin American countries have been working together to build a consensus on methodology (Box
2).
Science diplomacy solves all impacts, which turns case it also solves ocean
acidification and nuclear escalation.
Royal Society, 10 a Fellowship of more than 1400 outstanding individuals from all areas of
science, mathematics, engineering and medicine, who form a global scientific network of the highest
calibre. The Fellowship is supported by over 130 permanent staff with responsibility for the day-to-day
management of the Society and its activities. [January, 2010, New frontiers in science diplomacy]
Over the next thirty years, foreign policy will be increasingly shaped by the linked challenges of

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global sustainability (Lee 2009). Professor John Beddington FRS, the UK Governments Chief Scientific
a perfect storm of food shortages, scarce water and

insufficient energy resources, which threaten to unleash public unrest,
crossborder conflicts and mass migration (Beddington 2009). Science will be critical
to addressing these challenges, and the priority of science in diplomacy
should be to ensure the effective uptake of high quality scientific advice by
policymakers (NAS 2002). The scientific community must inform policymakers with
Adviser, has warned of
up-to-date information on the dynamics of the Earths natural and socio-economic systems. Scientists must
also identify where uncertainties exist, or where the evidence base is inadequate
(Royal Society 2005). Probably the best known example of a mechanism for informing policymaking with
scientific advice is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This was established in 1988 by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to
provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential
environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC does not carry out its own original research,
but reviews and produces periodic assessments of recent scientific, technical and socio-economic research.
Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to its work on a voluntary basis. Review is an
essential part of the IPCC process, and differing viewpoints within the scientific community are reflected in
the IPCC reports. In December 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize (jointly with former U S
Vice- President Al Gore) for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made
climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.5
National academies and learned societies are also an important source of

independent scientific advice to international policymakers. For example, since
2005, the national academies of science of the G8 + 5 countries have met annually to
produce joint statements relating to the themes of the G8 Presidency. Similarly, the InterAcademy
Panel on International Issues (IAP), which represents over 100 of the worlds national academies of science,
on ocean acidification and deforestation, as a

Even on sensitive issues of
national security, collaboration between scientists can help to facilitate
political negotiations. The Chinese Scientists Group on Arms Control and the US National Academy
of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) recently collaborated on the fi
rst Chinese-English glossary of nuclear security terms to remove barriers to progress in exchanges
has published statements in 2009
contribution to the United Nations climate change negotiations.6
and diplomatic, cooperative, or other activities where unambiguous understandings is essential (NAS
And in the Arctic, a collaborative project led by the Geological

Survey of Canada and involving researchers from Denmark, Norway,
Sweden, Russia and the United States recently published the fi rst
comprehensive atlas of Arctic geology, which has implications for
contentious sovereignty claims (Natural Resources Canada 2009). 2.1 Building capacity to
2008).
give and receive scientific advice The effective use of scientifi c advice in diplomacy requires international
policymakers to have a minimum level of scientifi c literacy, or at least access to others who have it. It also
requires scientists to communicate their work in an accessible and intelligible way, which is sensitive to its
wider policy context. Scientifi c bodies can help to build this capacity: in the US, efforts to increase the
number of scientists serving in the foreign policy community include the Jefferson Science Fellowships,
administered by the National Academies of Science, and the Science Diplomacy Fellowships offered by the
AAAS. Establishing and nurturing links between the scientific and foreign policy communities informs
scientists and policymakers alike: the former about the realities of policymaking; and the latter about the
role and limits of science in policy. Improving the scientifi c capacity of delegations from developing
countries is particularly important, especially for international negotiations on health and climate policy.
For example, health campaigners argue that offi cials from developing countries may lack the necessary
expertise to negotiate technical aspects of the international patent system. The same problem can apply in
complex areas of climate change policy. Scientific bodies can help to address these problems; a recent
example being the partnership between the InterAcademy Panel and the European Climate Foundation,
which convened workshops in Africa, Asia and Latin America to prepare offi cials from countries in these
regions in the run up to the 2009 COP-15 Copenhagen climate change negotiations. In the UK, the Royal
Societys MP-Scientist Pairing Scheme has been running since 2001.
Ocean acidification causes mass extinction empirically proven

Boswell, 11 [Randy. Staff Writer for the Vancouver Sun. Mass extinction due to high ocean
acidity: Canadian-led team solves biggest mystery in Earth history.

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http://www.vancouversun.com/business/technology/Mass+extinction+high+ocean+acidity+study/5377124
/story.html. September 9.]
A Canadian-led team of scientists may have solved the biggest whodunit in Earth history in a study
the all-time greatest mass extinction on the planet - which wiped

out about 90% of all species 250 million years ago - appears to have been
linked to rising levels of ocean acidity. Researchers have long believed that massive volcanic
showing that
eruptions in present-day Siberia - or possibly a huge meteorite strike - triggered the so-called
PermianTriassic extinction. But the precise mechanism of death for so many species remains a subject of
debate, with some scientists convinced it was a resulting lack of oxygen in the Earth's oceans or a
the Canadian study,

headed by St. Francis Xavier University climate scientist Alvaro Montenegro,
points to ocean acidification as a possible "main culprit " in the harrowing,
prehistoric die-off. And the Nova Scotia researcher told Postmedia News that the finding
should serve as a warning about present-day increases in ocean acidification.
greenhouse-gas nightmare that nearly ended all plant and animal life. But
Though still far lower than that experienced in the ancient mass extinction, rising acidity has been
documented by researchers around the world and is linked to the effects of climate change. Using a series
of computer simulations to recreate conditions on the planet at the time, Montenegro and his five
colleagues from Canada and Australia found it unlikely that oxygen-starved oceans led to the mass
extinction. Instead, their models pointed to a new prime suspect: spiking acid levels in the world's marine
Runaway ocean acidification "would definitely have a very serious

biological impact on oceans calcifiers," said Montenegro, referring to creatures that manufacture
environments.
their own bodily structures from minerals found in ocean water. Among the species that vanished from the
rock record around the time of the P-T extinction were most of the ammonites - large, snail-shaped marine
creatures that are known today from the beautifully iridescent, multi-coloured fossils of their spiral shells,
found in places such as southern Alberta. The relatively few ammonite species that survived the mass
extinction 250 million years ago were later killed off by the meteorite-linked extinction at the end of the
dinosaur age 65 million years ago.

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2nc science OV
Extend the impact a brain drain would drain Mexico of its scientific base. All fully
trained and qualified people would flock to the US for more opportunity in jobs,
leaving Mexico scientifically erratic and absorbed. Albornoz indicates that Mexican
and Latin American science capacity is vital to producing more knowledge and
participation in scientific communities. It allows democratization of science and
ideas, stringing together groups of people. Royal Society indicates that science
diplomacy is critical to fostering international cooperation of dialogic issues like
poverty, energy and resources, disease, and other environmental threats. It also
creates a common language which can be used to solve issues like nuclear
escalation, solving nuclear war. In addition, science diplomacy creates the scientific
research necessary to solve ocean acidification. Boswell indicates that causes
extinction empirics prove that ocean acidifications have caused mass extinctions
of the alpha species.
The impact turns case - <scidip key to their impacts>

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2nc science ext link

Consolidating Mexican and American science and research guarantees global
science diplomacy- models prove.
Quevedo 13 (Fernando, director of the Abdus Salam International Centre
for Theoretical Physics, Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from University of Texas

at Austin, former researcher at CERN, The Importance of International
Research Institutions for Science Diplomacy,
http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/perspective/2013/importance-internationalresearch-institutions-for-science-diplomacy, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
One of the major scientific discoveries of the past decades was
announced on July 4, 2012. On this day, the world learned of the
discovery of a new fundamental particle that may be the long-sought
Higgs particle, the only component of the standard model of particle physics yet to be discovered.
This was a great triumph for science and could mark a turning point
in our most basic understanding of nature and the early universe. More
importantly, the July 4th Higgs announcement is a prime example of effective
international science diplomacy. The Higgs particle was discovered at
the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), an organization formed to build the foundations
by bringing together former adversaries. Besides strong

scientists from the United
States and many other countries. CERN illustrates the importance of
science and international research institutions in uniting nations to
pursue a single noble goal. Along with CERN, the Abdus Salam International Centre for
for European science after World War II
partnerships within Europe, CERN also includes participation of
Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Trieste, Italy, is one of the oldest international research institutions. It also
international research institutions can play an important

role in bridging the worlds political and developmental divides by
focusing on large-scale scientific challenges that require
collaboration between countries. After decades of operation, both ICTP and CERN have
exemplifies how
proven that their well-defined missions and strict emphasis on maintaining the highest international
scientific standards create a successful and sustainable formula that strengthens scientific ties and
ensures continuous support from funding sources. As the divides of the twentieth century heal and new
ones emerge or reemerge, these large multinational institutions have had to adapt to the geopolitical and
developmental realities of the twenty-first century by expanding their scientific and geographical reach.
With more countries practicing and investing in science, these

institutions have needed to include, and in fact take advantage of, growing
scientific communities. ICTP and CERN can draw from these Cold War lessonsa mission
based on high quality and ambitious science, politically neutral siting of the physical facilities, and an
inclusive organizational management and membership structureto serve as models for new or future
research institutions. The vision of ICTPs founders, most notably Nobel laureate Abdus Salam, was to
create an institution with a truly global nature at a time when the world was divided by the Cold War. The
founders chose Trieste because of its great cultural diversity, which flows from its rich historythe city
oscillated between the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Italy, and the former Yugoslavia and for a brief period
was a free independent state under the United Nations after World War II. Its key location on the border
between Western and Eastern Europe during the Cold War made it strategic for an international
organization. Exhibiting what may be one of the earliest examples of science diplomacy success, ICTP in
the 1960s was essentially the only place in the West where scientists from both sides of the Iron Curtain
could meet and share their scientific results and knowledge of physics and mathematics. Whatever the
research subjects, ICTP brings together scientists from literally all over the world. Since its beginning in
These scientists
regularly get together, teach each other, start collaborations, learn about each
other's cultures, and share their views not only about science but
about other subjects including politics, religion, art, music, and food .
1964, the center has received visitors from more than 185 countries.
In a world with many divides, whether it is east and west or north and south, ICTP is one of the few places

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that offers a possibility of dialogue among civilizations (of diverse and sometimes contrasting views and
science is a truly international

activity; it transcends cultural, religious, national, and ethnic
differences among its practitioners, unifying in a particular way all of
mankind. The many programs offered at ICTP to support scientists from developing
countries provide a holistic and sustainable approach to the goal of reducing
the scientific gap between industrialized and developing countries. Contrary to most efforts on
opinions). Like CERN, ICTP operates under the belief that
international cooperation that usually address only near-term issues without a clear follow-up strategy,
ICTP creates strong ties with its visitors that are maintained throughout their whole career. CERN scientists
also share many of these duties because of the increasing international impact and reach of the laboratory.
CERN's initiatives to expand to non-European countries have taken a few different directions. First, it has
been able to involve non-member states in the construction of its experiments as well as in scientific
collaborations, which now include members from many countries on all continents. It has been organizing
schools, such as the CERN Latin American school on accelerator physics and, more recently, it has joined
ICTP and other institutions to organize African schools in fundamental physics. At these schools, local
scientists and students can attend lectures on subjects as diverse as early universe cosmology, the physics
and engineering aspects of accelerators, data analysis, and medical applications. CERN has also played a
leading role in initiatives to have networks of scientists from developing countries join one of its
experiments, such as the former European Union project known as HELEN (High-Energy Physics Latin-
history of bringing together international

scientists also serves as a model for current and planned international
experimental facilities such as the International Linear Collider; Iter in France; the Square Kilometer
American-European Network). CERN's
Array (SKA), which will be mostly based in South Africa and neighboring countries; and ANDES (Agua Negra
Deep Experiment Site) in South America. In particular, SKA will be the world's biggest radio telescope,
which will not only bring much needed scientific activity to the region, but also benefits for the local
community deriving from being involved in a world-class effort. ANDES may play a similar role in South
America as a truly Latin American big experimental project . Other countries, such as Brazil,
India, and China, are now in a position to host international scientific centers and support the development
are now in a
position to host international scientific centers and support the development of
science in neighboring countries. In 2011 the ICTP-SAIFR (South American Institute for
of science in neighboring countries. Other countries, such as Brazil, India, and China,
Fundamental Research) opened in So Paulo, Brazil, with the goal of promoting science in the region
following the ICTP model. Similar institutions are being planned for other key areas of the world to
strengthen scientific collaboration within a given region and with the rest of the world. Clearly, CERN and
ICTP are key role models of international science diplomacy.
For CERN, the resultswhich

would not have been possible without bringing together the worlds
best physicists and engineers across political divideshave included the possible discovery
of an important missing piece to the Standard Model puzzle as well as the creation of the World Wide Web,
a tool so ubiquitous today that few can imagine a life without it. ICTP's successes are more subtle but no
less important: the building of solid, sustainable science foundations in less-advantaged parts of the world
ensure that budding scientists, no matter what the economic and political situation of
their native countries, have the opportunity to nurture their ambitions in an
environment conducive to the highest levels of scientific knowledge
and discovery. Working through the universal language of science, both have demonstrated the
to
importance of a global approach to address the challenges of our time. They probably represent the best
international scientific institutions can play a crucial role

in uniting countries and cultures with the goal of benefiting not just
a single country or region, but the world as a whole. The right to
pursue science, like the rights declared more than two hundred years ago by America's founding
fathers, should be universal, regardless of a country's economic or
technological status. The global nature of science makes this
possible. This is science diplomacy at its best.
examples of how
And, science diplomacy checks escalation of conflicts its an impact filter it also
solves ocean acidification, Arctic war, nuclear escalation
Royal Society, 10 a Fellowship of more than 1400 outstanding individuals from all areas of
science, mathematics, engineering and medicine, who form a global scientific network of the highest

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calibre. The Fellowship is supported by over 130 permanent staff with responsibility for the day-to-day
management of the Society and its activities. [January, 2010, New frontiers in science diplomacy]
Over the next thirty years, foreign policy will be increasingly shaped by the linked challenges of
global sustainability (Lee 2009). Professor John Beddington FRS, the UK Governments Chief Scientific
a perfect storm of food shortages, scarce water and

insufficient energy resources, which threaten to unleash public unrest,
crossborder conflicts and mass migration (Beddington 2009). Science will be critical
to addressing these challenges, and the priority of science in diplomacy
should be to ensure the effective uptake of high quality scientific advice by
policymakers (NAS 2002). The scientific community must inform policymakers with
Adviser, has warned of
up-to-date information on the dynamics of the Earths natural and socio-economic systems. Scientists must
also identify where uncertainties exist, or where the evidence base is inadequate
(Royal Society 2005). Probably the best known example of a mechanism for informing policymaking with
scientific advice is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This was established in 1988 by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to
provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential
environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC does not carry out its own original research,
but reviews and produces periodic assessments of recent scientific, technical and socio-economic research.
Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to its work on a voluntary basis. Review is an
essential part of the IPCC process, and differing viewpoints within the scientific community are reflected in
the IPCC reports. In December 2007, the IPCC was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize (jointly with former U S
Vice- President Al Gore) for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made
climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change.5
National academies and learned societies are also an important source of

independent scientific advice to international policymakers. For example, since
2005, the national academies of science of the G8 + 5 countries have met annually to
produce joint statements relating to the themes of the G8 Presidency. Similarly, the InterAcademy
Panel on International Issues (IAP), which represents over 100 of the worlds national academies of science,
on ocean acidification and deforestation, as a

Even on sensitive issues of
national security, collaboration between scientists can help to facilitate
political negotiations. The Chinese Scientists Group on Arms Control and the US National Academy
of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) recently collaborated on the fi
rst Chinese-English glossary of nuclear security terms to remove barriers to progress in exchanges
has published statements in 2009
contribution to the United Nations climate change negotiations.6
and diplomatic, cooperative, or other activities where unambiguous understandings is essential (NAS
And in the Arctic, a collaborative project led by the Geological

Survey of Canada and involving researchers from Denmark, Norway,
Sweden, Russia and the United States recently published the fi rst
contentious sovereignty claims (Natural Resources Canada 2009). 2.1 Building capacity to
2008).
give and receive scientific advice The effective use of scientifi c advice in diplomacy requires international
policymakers to have a minimum level of scientifi c literacy, or at least access to others who have it. It also
requires scientists to communicate their work in an accessible and intelligible way, which is sensitive to its
wider policy context. Scientifi c bodies can help to build this capacity: in the US, efforts to increase the
number of scientists serving in the foreign policy community include the Jefferson Science Fellowships,
administered by the National Academies of Science, and the Science Diplomacy Fellowships offered by the
AAAS. Establishing and nurturing links between the scientific and foreign policy communities informs
scientists and policymakers alike: the former about the realities of policymaking; and the latter about the
role and limits of science in policy. Improving the scientifi c capacity of delegations from developing
countries is particularly important, especially for international negotiations on health and climate policy.
For example, health campaigners argue that offi cials from developing countries may lack the necessary
expertise to negotiate technical aspects of the international patent system. The same problem can apply in
complex areas of climate change policy. Scientific bodies can help to address these problems; a recent
example being the partnership between the InterAcademy Panel and the European Climate Foundation,
which convened workshops in Africa, Asia and Latin America to prepare offi cials from countries in these
regions in the run up to the 2009 COP-15 Copenhagen climate change negotiations. In the UK, the Royal
Societys MP-Scientist Pairing Scheme has been running since 2001.

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Science diplomacy solves the internal link to every major impact resolves issues
related to warming, resource shortages, economies and public health
Federoff 8 (Nina Federoff, Penn State professor and Obama secretary of
state science and technology adviser, April 2 8. TESTIMONY BEFORE THE
HOUSE SCIENCE SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND SCIENCE EDUCATION
http://gop.science.h...l2/fedoroff.pdf)
The welfare and stability of countries and regions in many parts of the globe
require a concerted effort by the developed world to address the causal
factors that render countries fragile and cause states to fail. Countries that are unable
to defend their people against starvation, or fail to provide economic opportunity, are susceptible to extremist ideologies,
the world faces common threats, among

them climate change, energy and water shortages, public health
emergencies, environmental degradation, poverty, food insecurity, and
religious extremism. These threats can undermine the national security of the United States, both directly and
autocratic rule, and abuses of human rights. As well,
indirectly. Many are blind to political boundaries, becoming regional or global threats. The United States has no monopoly
Addressing
these common challenges demands common solutions and necessitates
scientific cooperation, common standards, and common goals. We must
increasingly harness the power of American ingenuity In science and technology
through strong partnerships with the science community in both academia
and the private sector, in the U.S. and abroad among our allies, to advance
U.S. interests in foreign policy . There are also important challenges to the ability of states to supply their
on knowledge in a globalizing world and the scientific challenges facing humankind are enormous.
populations with sufficient food. The still-growing human population, rising affluence in emerging economies, and other
factors have combined to create unprecedented pressures on global prices of staples such as edible oils and grains.
Encouraging and promoting the use of contemporary molecular techniques in crop improvement is an essential goal for
US science diplomacy.

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1NC
Uniqueness and Link -- Status quo oil extraction in the
Amazon is restricted by lack of capacity- increasing oil
supply in the Amazon region destroys Amazonian
biodiversity.
Sayer 13 (Jeffrey A., Prof. of Conservation and Development Practice at James Cook University
School of Earth And Environmental Sciences, Member of the Science Council of the CGIAR Consultative
Group, Fellow of International Union for Conservation of Nature, BSc from Hull University, MSc from
University College, DSc from Universidad Autonoma in Spain, Energy demands bite into the Amazon,
World Wildlife Foundation,
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/problems/other_threats/oil_and_gas_extraction_
amazon/, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
Like mining, oil and gas extraction may not reach the geographic scale of logging and mass agriculture,
but the effects of these activities in the Amazon can be felt in a range of ways that are just as problematic.
As demand and the price of oil have soared worldwide, producers have
sought to match the supply at all costs . This means exploring
increasingly inaccessible sites - including in the Amazon - where oil
may be available. But while environmental and social considerations are making timid first
steps in this sector, the oil industry remains as dangerous as ever for
biodiversity and people living in the vicinity of extraction sites.
What are the impacts of oil and gas extraction? Impacts of energy exploration
and extraction may include: Deforestation : To set up their operations, companies
open roads through forests. These bring settlers who have access to
timber and new land, and who may engage in slash-and-burn
activities and logging. Indigenous conflict : Indigenous and local peoples
often gain the least from natural resources extraction, but stand to lose the
most. Compensation from energy firms and the government, where it is
awarded, is often very small. In addition, local communities are not always informed of
extraction projects. Biodiversity loss: Fragmentation of natural habitat
caused by the installation of pipelines, leading to smaller population
sizes that are not viable in the long term. Where oil and gaz companies are
operating close to (or even inside) protected areas, oil companies
may not adopt the needed sound operational practices, and hence
threaten biodiversity. Soil and aquatic pollution: Many things can go
wrong as oil is brought to the surface of the earth and processed.
Spills and toxic by-products are sometimes dumped in the vicinity of
the site or are stored in open waste pits, polluting the surrounding
lands and water. Air pollution : Some of the by-products of natural gas are
burned in the open air. The flames pollute the atmosphere and can
cause fires, threatening the lives of local inhabitants. Unnecessary flaring is also a waste of gas
which could provide energy to local people, reducing deforestation. Moreover, a sudden
availability of funds arising from oil or gas extraction is a mixed blessing.
Where local, national and regional administrations do not have the capacity or
the long-term planning required to manage large budgets, they may go
overboard by investing in ambitious (or dubious) infrastructure projects that do not take into consideration
the sustainable
development of the area.

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This is specifically true for Venezuela- energy is the

priority and any damage is a side effect to MaduroVenezuelan biodiversity is key.
Accessed 8/26/13)
Venezuela, one of the ten most biodiverse countries on Earth, is

home to extensive rainforests that are increasingly threatened by
development . Each year, roughly 287,600 hectares of forest are permanently destroyed, while other areas
are degraded by logging, mining, and oil extraction . Between 1990 and 2005, Venezuela officially
lost 8.3 percent of its forest cover, or around 4,313,000 hectares. Energy is Venezuela's most
important export and President Hugo Chavez has used oil as a
political tool to extend his influence to other parts of Latin America. In 2006, Chavez announced plans to build a
massive gas pipeline that would carry natural gas from the oil-rich state 5,000 miles south.
Environmentalists fear that the project could damage the Amazon

rainforest by polluting waterways and creating roads that would
attract developers and poor farmers. Analysts also question the wisdom and viability of the
plan, which may cost $20-50 billion depending on who makes the estimate. Venezuela also continues to expand the
construction of an electricity transmission line towards Brazil. When completed, the transmission line will carry power from
the massive Guri hydroelectric projectit in itself considered an ecological disaster for the amount of land it flooded in the
Environmentalists are
concerned that the lines will give colonists and developers access to
remote forest areas.
early 1980sthrough sensitive forest areas to Roraima state in Brazil.
The Amazon is fragile- destruction creates a ripple effect

which accelerates oxygen loss and climate changeextinction.
WWF 13 (About the Amazon, World Wildlife Foundation,
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/about_the_amazon
/, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
A region of world records Spanning 6.7 million km2 (twice the size of India) the
Amazon Biome is virtually unrivalled in scale, complexity and
opportunity, and truly is a region distinguished by superlatives. Not
only does the Amazon encompass the single largest remaining tropical
rainforest in the world, it also houses at least 10% of the worlds
known biodiversity, including endemic and endangered flora and fauna, and its river accounts
for 15-16% of the worlds total river discharge into the oceans. The Amazon River flows for more
than 6,600 km, and with its hundreds of tributaries and streams contains the largest
number of freshwater fish species in the world. Natural and cultural diversity
Equally impressive are the unfathomable numbers of mammals,
birds, amphibians, and reptiles4 found across the biome. The Amazon is home to more
than 30 million people living across a vast region subdivided into nine different national political systems.
According to the Coordinator of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin (COICA), about 9% (2.7
million) of the Amazons population is still made up of indigenous people 350 different ethnic groups,
for all of its magnitude and

apparent remoteness, the Amazon Biome is surprisingly fragile and
close to each one of us. Jeopardizing a pillar of life on Earth During the last
half century, the seemingly endless Amazon has lost at least 17% of its forest cover, its
more than 60 of which still remain largely isolated. And yet,

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connectivity has been increasingly disrupted, and numerous endemic species

have been subjected to waves of resource exploitation. The economic transformation of
the Amazon based on the conversion and degradation of its natural
habitat is gaining momentum. Yet, as those forces grow in strength, we are also finding that the
Amazon plays a critical role in maintaining climate function
regionally and globally, a contribution which everyonerich or poor
depends on . The Amazons canopy cover helps regulate temperature
and humidity, and is intricately linked to regional climate patterns through hydrological cycles that
depend on the forests. Given the enormous amount of carbon stored in the forests of the Amazon, there
is tremendous potential to alter global climate if not properly
stewarded. The Amazon contains 90-140 billion metric tons of carbon, the release of even
a portion of which would accelerate global warming significantly .
Currently, land conversion and deforestation in the Amazon release up to 0.5 billion metric tons of carbon
per year, not including emissions from forest fires, thus rendering the Amazon an important factor in
regulating global climate (Nepstad et al 2008).

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A2 Venezuelan Conservation is Enough

Even if conservation efforts are happening, they arent
effective.
Accessed 8/26/13)
While more than 35 percent of Venezuela is protected in its system

of parks and reserves, much of this area exists only on paper.
Protected areas are used for logging and miningboth illegal and
government-sanctionedand other forms of development, while
some protected areas have been designated despite being cleared
long ago. For example, Cainama national parkfamous for Angel Falls, the world's tallest
waterfallhas been plagued with a number of incursions by legal and
illegal miners and loggers in recent years.

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Amazon Biod Up
Deforestation and other environmental impacts are
decreasing now- prefer long term predictive evidencespecifically, Venezuela is decreasing their environmental
impact now.
Monga Bay, 12 (12/6/12, Venezuela: Environmental Profile,
http://rainforests.mongabay.com/20venezuela.htm, organization seeking to raise interest in conservation of
wild lands and wildlife, while examining emerging trends in climate, technology, economics, and finance on
conservation, http://news.mongabay.com/2012/1205-raisg-amazon-atlas.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
The average annual rate of deforestation across Amazon rainforest countries

dropped sharply in the second half of the 2000s, reports a comprehensive new
assessment of the region's forest cover and drivers of deforestation. While the drop in deforestation in the
several other Amazon countries saw

their rates of forest loss drop as well, according to the report, which
was published by a coalition of 11 Latin American civil society
groups and research institutions that form the Amazonian Network of Georeferenced
Socio-Environmental Information (RAISG). The atlas shows the sharpest decline
occurred in the tiny nation of Suriname, where deforestation fell 80 percent from
Brazilian Amazon has been widely reported,
938 square kilometers between 2000 and 2005 to just 191 sq km between 2005 and 2010. Brazil (61
percent drop),
Venezuela (46 percent),
Ecuador (18 percent), Guyana (17 percent), and
Bolivia (17 percent) followed. Brazil experienced the overall largest drop in deforestation in terms of overall
area, going from 138,804 sq km to 54,181 sq km between the two periods. Deforestation increased in
Peru (4 percent), Colombia (32 percent), and French Guiana (40 percent).
Overall
deforestation across the Amazon fell by 53 percent

Meanwhile the
between the two periods.
extent of indigenous territories and protected areas also
increased during the decade.

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Links

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2NC Venezuela Links

Extend 1NC Monga Bay- Venezuela is a vital biodiversity
hotspot that would impact the Western Amazon
rainforest. Oil is Maduros #1 priority and he will do
anything he can to improve the energy sector. This
includes environmental devastation of the Amazon, and
that would be their first step.

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2NC Link Wall

No question on the link debate- plan increases capacity of
Venezuelas energy sector, resulting in ventures and
development of oil extraction facilities in inaccessible
biodiversity rich sites, specifically the Amazon. This would
cause environmental impacts like deforestation,
indigenous rights claims, fragmentation of habitats, soil
and aquatic pollution from by-products, waste dumping,
air pollution, wildfires, and pipeline development- that
jacks Amazonian biodiversity. Capacity is the only barrier
to increased exploration- thats Sayer 13. He has a DSc
degree in environmental science- prefer this.
AND double bind either the affirmative increases
Venezuelas oil capacity and 100% links to the DA, or they
dont and theres a terminal solvency deficit to the case.
AND Heres a slew of links-1- Infrastructure development- spills over and harms
keystone species.
Finer et al. 11 (Matt Finer, Carl Ross, fellows at Save Americas Forests, Clinton N. Jenkins,
Stuart L. Pimm, Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University, Brian Keane, Land is Life
foundation, Oil and Gas Projects in the Western Amazon: Threats to Wilderness, Biodiversity, and
Indigenous Peoples, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0002932,
Keerthi, Accessed 8/27/13)
Roads are one of the strongest correlates of Amazonian

deforestation [47][48]. New access roads cause considerable direct impacts
such as habitat fragmentation and often trigger even greater indirect
impacts, such as colonization [30], illegal logging [49], and
unsustainable hunting [27][28]. Animals often targeted by local and indigenous hunters
are involved in key ecological processes such as seed dispersal and seed predation [50]. The
overhunting of large primates, for example, has the potential to change the
composition and spatial distribution of western Amazon forests due to the loss of these important seed dispersers [51]. Even a
rough extrapolation from the oil extraction in previous decades suggests that the planned wave of oil and gas activity
may similarly fragment and degrade largely intact forests over huge areas in coming years
and decades. Two Amazonian modeling efforts indicate that deforestation is concentrated in the eastern and southern Brazilian Amazon
Oil and gas

blocks, however, now fill much of these remote areas. A primary concern is that new oil and gas
projects could bring a proliferation of new access routes throughout
the western Amazon. Indeed, pending oil and gas projects are currently the primary threat to areas in eastern Ecuador
(Blocks 31 and ITT), northern Peru (Blocks 39 and 67), Peru's Camisea region, Brazil's Urucu region, and Bolivia's Madidi region. Oil
access roads are a main catalyst of deforestation and associated
impacts. A report from scientists working in Ecuador concluded that impacts along new access roads could not be adequately
areas with high road density but the western Amazon is largely intact due its remoteness and lack of roads [9], [43].
controlled or managed, particularly in regards to actions of the area's local or indigenous peoples [52]. The report, along with opposition by the
Waorani indigenous people, pressured the Ecuadorian government, which banned Petrobras from building a road into Yasun National Park in
July 2005. The government forced the company to redesign the project without a major access road. As of this writing, Petrobras plans to use

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helicopters to transport all materials, supplies, equipment, and people to and from the well sites, with oil flowing out via a roadless pipeline.
This decision by the Ecuadorian government might set an important precedent for policy: no new oil access roads through wilderness areas. A
major roadless oil project in Ecuador's Block 10 was the region's first example that such development is possible [53], and Block 15 also
features a roadless pipeline with canopy bridges. Elimination of new roads could significantly reduce the impacts of most projects.
2- No environmental assessments or regulations.

Nations of the region require project-specific Environmental Impact

Studies (EIS) prior to oil and gas exploration or exploitation projects. The oil
companies contract the firms to conduct the studies, a system that
clearly lacks independent analysis . Moreover, there are typically no
comprehensive analyses of the long-term, cumulative, and
synergistic impacts of multiple oil and gas projects across a wider
region, generally referred to as a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) [62]. In Peru, hydrocarbon blocks now
overlap 20 protected areas. Thirteen of these protected areas preceded creation of the oil blocks and lack compatibility
studies required by the Protected Areas Law [63]. An SEA could deal with these types of issues. For example, in the Napo
Moist Forest ecoregion of northern Peru, 28 blocks form a nearly continuous oil zone.
There has been
almost no regional planning, no analysis of the cumulative and longterm impacts, and no strategic planning for long-term protections
of biodiversity and indigenous peoples . No national parks exist in the region, so there are
no areas strictly off-limits to oil development. Indeed, the mass of oil blocks overlap two lower-level protected areas,
several proposed protected areas, numerous titled indigenous territories, and a proposed Territorial Reserve to protect the
indigenous peoples in voluntary isolation living in the core of the region
. The development of
proper SEAs would potentially reduce the negative impacts across

the wider region of the western Amazon.
3- US investment into Venezuelan infrastructure is key to

the link.
Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade , August
2013, Venezuela country brief,
http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/venezuela/venezuela_country_brief.html, Keerthi,
Accessed 8/30/13)
Despite a number of flagship foreign investment projects, restoring
and sustaining investor confidence remains an important issue in
Venezuela. This is unlikely to occur in the near term however, as a
challenging operating environment and uncertainty over contract
and property rights persists. In July 2012, Venezuela joined Mercosur the Southern
Common Market formed in 1991 between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Venezuelas
membership of Mercosur expanded the market to 270 million people with a gross domestic product worth
US$3.3 trillion. Venezuela assumed the Presidency of the trading bloc in July 2013. Economic outlook
Venezuela's main source of income continues to be Petroleos de Venezuela ( PDVSA), the state-owned
revenues give the PSUV the ability to fund wide-scale

social reforms such as free health-care clinics, discounted food
centres in poor areas and secondary and tertiary education
programs. Venezuela was hit hard by the global financial crisis, with GDP contracting 3.2 per cent in
oil company. Its
2009 and 1.5 per cent in 2010. Venezuelas economy grew by 5.6 per cent in 2012, but is forecast to grow
by only 0.1 per cent in 2013. High inflation, falling public expenditure due to volatile oil prices, a weak
investment outlook and deteriorating infrastructure are contributing factors to this slowdown.
The

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United States is PDVSAs main full cash export market. Most other
exports go to political allies that receive oil shipments on long-term
credit agreements at concessionary interest rates (such as
Nicaragua or Cuba), or constitute payments for previously received
loans (as in the case of China). The company has also revived plans to expand natural gas
production for export to Argentina.

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A2 Amazon Has No Oil

WAT? Amazon is oil-rich and all of it is over bio-diversified
areas.
There are now ~180 oil and gas blocks covering ~688,000 km2 of
forest in the western Amazon (Figure 2). At least 35 multinational oil and gas companies operate
these blocks, which overlap the most species-rich part of the Amazon for
amphibians, birds, and mammals (Figure 3). Oil and gas projects affect the
forest of all western Amazonian nations, but to varying degrees. For example, in both
Ecuador and Peru blocks now cover more than two-thirds of the Amazon, while in Colombia that fraction is less than onetenth. In Bolivia and western Brazil, historical impacts are minimal, but
exploration is increasing rapidly.
the area open to oil and gas

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A2: No Demand Reserves

Extend 1NC Sayer- oil reserves exist vastly and are
waiting to be tapped- oil capacity is key.
Peruvian discoveries provide an incentive.
Several large recent oil discoveries in the remote forests on the

Peruvian side of the Peru-Ecuador border will likely trigger a new
wave of development. Initial estimates indicate over 500 million barrels in Blocks 67 and 39
(labeled in Figure 4), the former of which has recently begun its development phase [40]. Gas development
A new gas discovery in the region

announced in January 2008 brought the proven reserves of the Camisea
area to over 15 trillion cubic feet. In addition, a wave of exploration is about to begin as
in the Camisea region is likely to continue as well.
the 40 blocks leased out over the last four years begin operations on the ground. In 2007 alone, the
government approved the Environmental Impact Studies (EIS, see below) for 10 blocks that are set to
begin immediate seismic testing and drilling of exploratory wells.

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A2 Link Should Have Been Triggered- Past

Venezuela
Extend 1NC Monga Bay- Venezuelan oil industry is
nowhere near high enough levels to create capacity. The
Sayer evidence says capacity is the vital internal link for
countries to start exploiting the rain forests. Double bindeither Venezuelan oil industry is high now and means you
vote them down on Inherency or the Venezuelan oil
industry is low now and they link to the DA.

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A2 Brazil Triggers Link

Brazils oil sector is failing AND they go offshore for oil,
not into forests.
Eisenhammer 13 (Stephen, June 27, Reuters, Petrobras' Brazil
stranglehold saps oil services sector,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/27/oil-services-brazilidUSL5N0F11L020130627, Keerthi, Accessed 8/30/13)
(Reuters) - The scale of Brazil's offshore oil reserves should be bringing a
bonanza to service and equipment companies. Instead, dominant
national company Petrobras' negotiating tactics and government
demands are combining to squeeze industry margins. Oil service
companies - suppliers of everything from rigs to teams of engineers - cite issues in Brazil
for contributing to a spate of earnings disappointments . The trend
continued on Thursday as Subsea 7 warned it will miss its 2013 profit forecast due to cost overruns on its
Brazil for many players this year has been softer

than they had expected," Glynn Williams, partner at oil services private equity fund Epi-V, told
Reuters. There are unique difficulties of doing business in Brazil , Subsea 7
Brazil project. "Certainly
Chief Executive Jean Cahuzac said in explaining cost increases of between $250 million and $300 million at
"It is partly due to the project, but to a

great extent it is due to the Brazilian environment," he said. "It's more
difficult to work in Brazil, it's a more complex situation because of
local content, the administration ... the tax." Yet the scale of Brazil's offshore oil
its Guara-Lula project, offshore Brazil.
and gas ambitions make it a hard place for international contractors to ignore. The country's giant 2006
oil discovery, where Petrobras is principle operator, hailed a rush into Latin America's largest economy by
oil service companies, whose expertise and equipment allows oil companies to explore and develop fields.
Some 27 percent of all deep- and ultra-deep offshore wells drilled in

the last two years were in Brazil, according to data from research
company IHS.

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A2 Peru/Vietnam Triggers Link

Perus ventures into the Amazon have been delayed
indefinitely- Peru is environmentally friendly.
Hill 13 (David, Jul 30, Exploitation of Peru's 'miracle' oil deposits in the
Amazon is delayed,
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/jul/30/forests-energy, Keerthi,
Accessed 8/30/13)
The controversial exploitation of heavy crude oil from one of the most
inaccessible, most biodiverse regions of the Peruvian rainforest inhabited by
indigenous people in "voluntary isolation" has been delayed. Anglo-French oil company
Perenco, partnered by Vietnam's state oil company, PetroVietnam, was
scheduled to start producing oil this month, but Perenco's head of communications,
Nicolas de Blanpr, now says that "production is expected to start later in 2013." When the oil was
declared commercially-viable in December 2006, before Perenco became involved, Peru's then president
Alan Garca visited the region, called the oil a "miracle", and said it would turn Peru into a net oil exporter
and save the country US$1bn a year. Others were equally positive, with Aurelio Ochoa, later the chairman
of Perupetro, calling it the "biggest energy discovery in Peru's history after the Camisea gas fields" and the
then Minister of Energy subsequently saying it had reignited interest in exploring for oil in Peru. Perenco
took over operations in January 2008 and now intends to drill 185 wells and build a 207km pipeline to
exploit an estimated 217 million barrels of oil, but the company's activities have consistently attracted
controversy. According to a recent report by Peruvian NGO CooperAccion, the oil in this region is "one of
the most important hydrocarbon deposits in the country" and Lot 67, as Perenco's concession is known, is
Although attention has tended to focus

on whether operations will impact on the indigenous people i n "voluntary
isolation" for whom Perenco claims there is "no evidence" CooperAccion highlights the
potential impacts on the environment and other indigenous people
in the region.
"coming to attract increasing attention."

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A2 Russia Triggers Link

Russian oil sector is failing.
Herszenhorn and Kramer 13 (DAVID M. HERSZENHORN and ANDREW
E. KRAMER, Oil Wealth Ebbing, Russia Needs to Lure Foreign Capital, The
NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/21/world/europe/oil-wealth-reducedrussia-needs-to-lure-foreign-capital.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0, Accessed
8/30/13, Keerthi)
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia For more than a dozen years, it has been
impossible to miss Russias soaring, often ostentatious, energy
wealth the flashiness of Moscow, the 250-foot yachts and the hundred-million-dollar
penthouse apartments for the children. And the riches have hardly been confined to the private sector.
Last year, when Vladimir V. Putin wanted to shore up support ahead of Election Day, the salaries of
government workers jumped; military pay actually doubled. Those heady days seem to be running out,
however. The great gush of oil and gas wealth that has fueled Mr. Putins power and popularity and has
Foreign investors, wary of endemic

corruption and an expanding government role in the economy, are
hanging back, depriving the economy of essential capital. In many
respects, analysts say, the same iron fist that Mr. Putin wielded to public
approval in the early years of his presidency could be the biggest
obstacle to a badly needed economic restructuring, and potentially
even turn public opinion against him. Russias economy, the worlds eighth largest,
raised living standards across Russia is leveling off.
slowed to a near standstill in the first months of this year, and the Kremlin is now preparing to dip into its
the problems for Russias

economy run deeper than its overwhelming dependence on oil and gas
revenues, which now account for more than half the federal budget.
$171 billion rainy day fund in a bid to spur growth. But

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Impacts

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2NC Overview
Amazon rainforest is on the brink of environmental
collapse- human impacts like deforestation are destroying
the region. Oil extraction is the reason South American
countries go into the region and exploit the environmentthey want more resources. Specifically, increasing
Venezuelan capacity makes them go into the Amazonthats Monga Bay. That causes extinction because it
impacts all forests and destroys all natural cycles and
oxygen flow, accelerating climate change- Amazon is key
and fragile- thats WWF 13. It outweighs1- Magnitude- it causes extinction- that analysis is above.
2- Timeframe and probability- Amazon is fragile and
causes extinction by 2100 if we dont act.
Discovery News 9 (June 29, Rainforests are more Fragile than
Estimated, http://www.amazonrainforestnews.com/2009/06/rainforests-morefragile-than-estimated.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
The Amazon rainforest, one of the planet's most precious and besieged natural resources, is
even more fragile than realized.
If the planet warms even a moderate amount,
new study predicts that as much as 40 percent of it could be

condemned to vanish by the end of the century. A crippled Amazon
could hasten global warming. If a significant portion of its trees die
off, their vast stores of carbon would be emitted back into the
atmosphere as greenhouse gases, pushing the climate further into
dangerous levels of warming.
3- Only extinction scenario outweighs nuclear war

Deibel 7 [Terry L. Deibel, professor of IR @ National War College, 2007,
Foreign Affairs Strategy, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today,
CMR]
Droughts, floods, and violent storms Consensus Disease and Illness 26% of GDPEconomy Thermohaline circulation collapse Runaway green
house warming Positive Feedback, H2O vapor More true than Nuclear Winter Finally,
threat
there is one
major
existential
to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action. It is
the threat of global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. Scientists worldwide have been observing the
gathering of this threat for three decades now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty. Indeed
not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic
warming is occurring. In legitimate scientific circles, writes Elizabeth Kolbert, it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over
the fundamentals of global warming. Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly, as this
sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts brutal droughts, floods and violent storms across the planet over the next
century; climate change could literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and
malaria; glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected, andworldwide, plants are blooming several
days earlier than a decade ago; rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive
hurricanes; NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a
close second; Earths warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year as disease
spreads; widespread bleaching from Texas to Trinidadkilled broad swaths of corals due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. The world
is slowly disintegrating, concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq, who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. They call it climate changebut we
just call it breaking up. From the founding of the first cities some 6,000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon
dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At present they are accelerating toward
400 ppm, and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century, so
there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we are thus in for significant global warming; the only debate is how

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much and how serious the effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted above show, we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree
warming in more violent storms, spread of disease, mass die offs of plants and animals, species extinction, and threatened inundation of lowlying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice
sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolinas outer banks, swamp the southern third of
Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village. Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic
thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. Economist William Cline
once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually; severe warming could
cost 13-26 percent of GDP. But the most frightening scenario is
runaway
greenhouse
warming , based on positive
feedback from the buildup of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. Past ice age
transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures, took place in just decades, even though no one was
then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that humankinds
continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earths climate and humanitys life
support system. At worst, says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New York University, were just going to burn everything up; were going to
heat the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles, and then everything will collapse.
During the Cold War, astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied
warming is the postas serious and considerably
States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries but possible end life on this planet. Global
Cold War eras
equivalent of nuclear winter
at least
better supported scientifically . Over the long run it puts dangers form terrorism and
traditional military challenges to shame. It is a threat not only to the security and prosperity to
the United States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.
<Turns case arguments>

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A2 No Spillover
Extend 1NC WWFthe Amazon is the key to ALL forests
and life systems on the planet. It produces billions of tons
of oxygen yearly for respiration and breathing, and owns
the largest number and diversity of species on the planetit is incredibly fragile. Harmful impacts in one area would
definitely spill over to the next and devastate the entire
region.

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Turns Agriculture
Climate change badtemperature spikes massively harm
crop yieldsdiscussions of how a rise in average
temperate affects crop yields ignore effects of peak
temperature
The Economist, 2011, One Degree Over, March 17,
http://www.economist.com/node/18386161/, last accessed 7.2.12
FOR a scientist, there are few happier accidents than finding a trove of data that were gathered for other
David Lobell, a
researcher at Stanford University, when he started talking to Marianne
Bnziger of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre, in Mexico, about how
climate change would affect crops in Africa.
purposes, but which apply to your pet problem. That happened to
Dr Bnziger and her colleagues had been running an ambitious set of field trials designed to look at what
sorts of maize (corn, to Americans) grow best in various parts of southern and eastern Africa, paying
special attention to drought resistance. They were struggling, though, to find the money to pull the results
Lobell realised
he could also use the result to correlate yields with
meteorological conditions other than drought, and thus reveal
any harm done by hotter-than-usual weather. His conclusions,
published this week in Nature Climate Change, confirm for the tropics the findings
for temperate climes of a recent American study. This is that
peak, rather than average, temperatures are what matter most
from 123 separate research stations together into one big, tractable database. Dr
that if he helped them
to maize.
Days above 30C are particularly damaging. In otherwise normal conditions,

every day the temperature is over this threshold diminishes
yields by at least 1%. Moreover, days where the temperature
exceeds 32C do twice the harm of those at 31C. And during a
drought, things are worse still. Then, yields take a hit of 1.7% per day over 30C.
This matters because increasing the average temperature only a bit can
multiply the number of the hottest days a lot. The research predicts that a
1C rise in average temperature will reduce yields across twothirds of the maize-growing region of Africa, even in the
absence of drought. Add drought and that effect spreads over
the entire area.

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Turns Bio-D
Climate change badeven if it saves some species, more
will go extinctionour evidence is comparative
AP, 2012 , Seth Borenstein, St. Louis Today, Global Warming Benefits Once-Rare Butterfly, May 25,
http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/global-warming-benefits-once-rare-butterfly/article_8181ac9b-cd715894-a782-1ce6e05cad9d.html, last accessed 7.2.12
The climate is threatening the existence of many species, such as

the giant polar bear. But in the case of the small drab British butterfly,
it took a species in trouble and made it thrive. It's all about food. Over
about 25 years, the butterfly went from in trouble to pushing north in Britain where it found a veritable
banquet. Now the butterfly lives in twice as large an area as it once did and is not near threatened,
according to a study in Friday's issue of the journal Science. Decades ago, the brown Argus "was sort of a
special butterfly that you would have to go to a special place to see, and now it's a butterfly you can see in
regular farmland or all over the place," said study co-author Richard Fox, an ecologist at Butterfly
Conservation, a science and advocacy group in the United Kingdom. Global
warming
helping the brown Argus is unusual compared with other
species, and that's why scientists are studying it more, said study co-author Jane Hill, a professor of
ecology at the University of York. Biologists expect climate change to create
winners and losers in species. Stanford University biologist
Terry Root, who wasn't part of this study, estimated that for every winner like
the brown Argus there are three loser species, like the cuckoo bird in Europe. Hill
agreed that it's probably a 3-1 ratio of climate change losers to
winners. As the world warms, the key interactions between
species break down because the predator and prey may not
change habitats at the same time, meaning some species will
move north to cooler climes and won't find enough to eat, Root
said. "There
Root said.
are just so many species that are going to go extinct,"

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Turns Economy
Warming turns econ---disasters, infrastructure, hidden
costs, inequalities.
Center for Integrative Economic Research, Oct. 2007, The US
Economic Impacts of Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction, by the Univ.
of Maryland, http://www.cier.umd.edu/documents/US%20Economic
%20Impacts%20of%20Climate%20Change%20and%20the%20Costs%20of
%20Inaction.pdf, DOA 7/3/13
Lesson 1: economic impacts of climate change will occur throughout the country. The effects of
climate change will be felt by the entire nation: all sectors of the
economy - most notably agriculture, energy, and transportation - will be affected; essential
infrastructures that afford us reliable services and high standards of living (such as water supply
and water treatment) will be impacted; and ecosystems, on which quality of
life relies (such as forests, rivers, and lakes), will suffer . In theWest and Northwest,climate
change is expected to alter precipitation patterns and snow pack, thereby increasing
the risk of forest fires . Forest fires cost billions of dollars to suppress, and
can result in significant loss of property .The Oakland, California fire of 1991 and the
fires in San Diego and San Bernardino Counties in 2003 each cost over $2 billion . Every year for the past
four years, over 7 million acres of forests in the National Forest System have burned with annual
suppression costs of $1 .3 billion or more .
The Great Plains and the Midwest will
suffer particularly from increased frequency and severity of flooding and drought events,
causing billions of dollars in damages to crops and property . For example, the North
Dakota Red River floods in 3 1 Executive Summary 1997 caused $1 billion in agricultural production
losses, and the Midwest floods of 1993 inflicted $6-8 billion in damages to farmers alone . The
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region will see increased vulnerability to sea level rise and storms .
Depending on the category of the event, evacuation costs for the Northeast region may range,
for a single event, between $2 and $6 .5 billion . Since 1980, there have been 70 natural weathercaused disasters, with damages to coastal infrastructure exceeding $1 billion per event . Taken
together, their combined impact surpassed $560 billion in damages .
Decreased precipitation levels in the South and Southwest will strain water resources for agriculture,
industry and households . For the agriculturally productive Central Valley in California alone, the estimated
economy-wide loss during the driest years is predicted to be around $6 billion per year . Net agricultural
income for the San Antonio Texas Edwards Aquifer region is predicted to decline by 16-29% by 2030 and by
The true
economic impact of climate change is fraught with hidden costs .
Besides the replacement value of infrastructure, for example, there are
real costs of re-routing traffic, workdays and productivity lost,
provision of temporary shelter and supplies, potential relocation and
retraining costs, and others . Likewise, the increased levels of
uncertainty and risk, brought about by climate change, impose new
costs on the insurance, banking, and investment industries, as well
as complicate the planning processes for the agricultural and
manufacturing sectors and for public works projects . Since the early 1990s,
30-45% by 2090 because of competing uses for an increasingly scarce resource water .
and especially during the 21st century, significant progress has been made in understanding the impacts
of climate change at national, regional, and local scales .These studies, many of which are discussed in the
pages that follow, highlight physical processes that influence transportation, energy and water supply
systems, agriculture and forestry, fisheries, tourism, and other important economic sectors .There is,
however, a lack of research that quantifies and compares these impacts, and a deficiency in using what is
known about climate impacts to guide adaptation actions from the national level down to the local level .
Thus, the full economic costs will likely be much higher than what is reported currently . Lesson 2.
economic impacts will be unevenly distributed across regions and within the economy and society. Not all
regions or sectors of the country will be equally affected by climate impacts because of differences in

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climatic, economic and social conditions whose interplay influences coping capacities . For example, in the
Northeast, the maple sugar industry a $31 million industry - is expected to suffer losses of between 15
and 40% ($5-12 million) in annual revenue due to decreased sap flow .The region can expect a decrease of
10- 20% in skiing days, resulting in a loss of $405-810 million per year .The dairy industry is also highly
sensitive to temperature changes, since the dairy cows productivity starts decreasing above 77F (25C) .
In California, an annual loss of $287-902 million is expected for this $4 .1 billion industry . Losses are
expected to the $3 .2 billion California wine industry as well, since grape quality diminishes with higher
temperatures . In each case, these may be considered small niche sectors in their respective economies
accounting for less than one-tenth of gross state product yet they are an essential element of local
employment, history, culture and landscape .

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Turns Food Prices

Climate change increase food prices
Koch, 2012 (By Wendy Koch, USA TODAY Climate change to worsen hunger as U.N.'s Rio+20
begins Jun 20, 2012, http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2012/06/climate-changeexected-to-worsen-hunger-as-rio20-begins/1#.T_RsbfXh-So accessed 7.4)
"Undernutrition is a determinant of poor health and it is women and children who suffer the most," Julio
Frenk, dean of Harvard University's School of Public Health, said in announcing the findings. "Maternal
undernutrition can continue in children, extending the cycle for at least three generations." The report says
climate change will also affect food prices. Citing World Bank data, it says those
prices jumped 8% in the first quarter of 2012, partly due to extreme
cold in Europe that affected wheat crops and excessive heat in South
America that lower production of sugar, maize and soybeans. Another
report, published today in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, suggests several solutions to
climate change and food shortages: farm efficiency, food waste recycling and lower meat consumption.
These changes could reduce the amount of land needed for farming, despite population growth, and leave
sufficient land to produce bio-energy, according to the study from the University of Exeter in the United
Kingdom.

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Turns Fisheries/Marine Ecosystems

Warming turns fisheries/marine ecosystems
Axelrod, Environmental politician, 2011 (Mark project muse Global
Environmental politics August 2011 6/26/12) JMV
Recent projections suggest that climate change will significantly
reduce marine biodiversity, with particularly strong impacts on highlatitude species and those living in semi-enclosed seas where
migration options are limited. Although research is limited by system
complexity and indirect estimation, studies have al ready
documented important marine ecosystem changes resulting from
longterm temperature shifts. These atmospheric changes lead to
modified phytoplankton photosynthesis3 and shifting habitats for
fish and other oceanic species. The resulting new ecological patterns
also affect social systems dependent on fishing-related livelihoods.5
As a result, we might expect governments to turn their attention
towards climate change adaptation in the fisheries sector. Regional fisheries
1
management organizations (RFMOs), meeting annually to set fishing limits and other management rules, present an ideal
venue in which to address climate change impacts on marine fisheries. Indeed, some RFMOssuch as the International
Nonetheless, in 2007, the

same year that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) reiterated climate threats and uncertainties for marine
biodiversity6 and capture fisheries,7 only one out of 17 UNrecognized RFMOs took explicit action on climate change. In that
year, despite growing awareness of vulnerability throughout the
worlds oceans, the Commission for Conservation of Antarctic Marine
Living Resources (CCAMLR) was the only RFMO to place climate
change prominently on its annual agenda. CCAMLR parties required the organizations
Whaling Commission (IWC)have addressed climate change repeatedly.
Scientific Committee to take action, and ensured that climate change would appear on all future CCAMLR annual agendas. 8
Although CCAMLR was the only RFMO to directly address climate change in 2007, eight of the 17 RFMOs have addressed
climate change in at least one annual meeting since 1992. This article seeks to explain when and why RFMOs move beyond
their classic management approachesassignment of property rights, catch limits, and gear restrictionsto include climate
change in their research and management plans. Variation in RFMO approaches to climate change provides an opportunity
to understand member state and secretariat behavior surrounding linkage politics.

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Turns Hegemony
Warming turns Heg multiple reasons.
Jill Fitzsimmons, May 30 2012, researcher on Media Matters' energy and
environment team. She holds a B.S. in Political Science from Santa Clara
University, cites 15 former military generals; 15 Military Leaders Who Say
Climate Change Is A National Security Threat;
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/05/30/15-military-leaders-who-sayclimate-change-is-a/184705, DOA 7/3/13
Republicans in Congress are attempting to prevent the military from purchasing alternative fuels, which Senator Inhofe (R-OK) believes are
merely "perpetrating President Obama's global warming fantasies and his war on affordable energy." And conservative media are backing the
attacks on climate change and clean energy programs, suggesting that these investments come at the expense of national security. But
climate change poses a serious threat to our

national security, and that transitioning to alternative energy will enhance military effectiveness.
experts across the political spectrum agree that
Here are 15 current and former national security officials in their own words on the threat of climate change: Thomas Fingar, former chairman
of President Bush's National Intelligence Council: "We judge global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for US national security
interests over the next 20 years ... We judge that the most significant impact for the United States will be indirect and result from climatedriven effects on many other countries and their potential to seriously affect US national security interests." Brig. General Steven Anderson,
USA (Ret.), former Chief of Logistics under General Petraeus and a self-described "conservative Republican": "Our oil addiction, I believe, is our
CO2 emissions and

climate change and the instability that that all drives , I think that that
increases the likelihood there will be conflicts in which American
soldiers are going to have to fight and die somewhere." Leon Panetta, Secretary of Defense: "[T]he
area of climate change has a dramatic impact on national security:
rising sea levels, to severe droughts, to the melting of the polar caps, to more frequent and
devastating natural disasters all raise demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster
greatest threat to our national security. Not just foreign oil but oil in general. Because I believe that in
relief." Robert Gates, former Secretary of Defense: "Over the next 20 years and more, certain pressures-population, energy, climate,
economic, environmental-could combine with rapid cultural, social, and technological change to produce new sources of deprivation, rage, and
instability." General Gordon Sullivan, USA (Ret.), former Army chief of staff: "Climate change is a national security issue. We found that
climate instability will lead to instability in geopolitics and impact American military operations around the world." Vice Admiral Dennis
we can expect more frequent,

failed state scenarios creating large scale humanitarian disasters and higher
potential for conflict and terrorism ... The Department of Defense and national intelligence communities recognize this clear link
McGinn, USN (Ret.): "If the destabilizing effects of climate change go unchecked,
widespread, and intense
between climate change, national security, and instability and have begun strategic plans and programs to both mitigate and adapt to the
most likely and serious effects in key areas around the globe." General Anthony Zinni, USMC (Ret.), former Commander-in-Chief of U.S.
Central Command and special envoy to Israel and Palestine under President George W. Bush: "It's not hard to make the connection between
climate change and instability, or climate change and terrorism." Admiral Joseph Lopez, USN (Ret.): "Climate change will provide the
conditions that will extend the war on terror." General Chuck Wald, USAF (Ret.), former Deputy Commander of U.S. European Command under
President George W. Bush: "People can say what they want to about whether they think climate change is manmade or not, but there's a
problem there and the military is going to be a part of the solution. It's a national security issue because it affects the stability of certain places
in the world." Brig. General Bob Barnes, USA (Ret.): "While most people associate global warming with droughts, rising sea levels, declining
food production, species extinction and habitat destruction, fewer connect these impacts to increasing instability around the globe and the
resulting threats to our national security. But the connection - and the threat it poses - is real and growing." Vice Admiral Richard Truly, USN
(Ret.), former NASA administrator: "The stresses that climate change will put on our national security will be different than any we've dealt
with in the past." General Paul Kern, USA (Ret.), Commander of the United States Army Materiel Command under President George W. Bush:
Military planning should view climate change as a threat to the

balance of energy access, water supplies, and a healthy
environment, and it should require a response.' Lt. General Lawrence Farrell, USAF (Ret.):
"
"The planning we do that goes into organizing, training, and equipping our military considers all the risks that we may face. And one of the
risks we see right now is climate change." Admiral John Nathman, USN (Ret.), former Commander of the U.S. Fleet Forces Command under
President George W. Bush: "There are serious risks to doing nothing about climate change. We can pay now or we're going to pay a whole lot
later. The U.S. has a unique opportunity to become energy independent, protect our national security and boost our economy while reducing
our carbon footprint. We've been a model of success for the rest of the world in the past and now we must lead the way on climate change."
Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, USN (Ret.): "The national security community is rightly worried about climate change because of the magnitude of its
expected impacts around the globe, even in our own country ... Climate change poses a clear and present danger to the United States of
America. But if we respond appropriately, I believe we will enhance our security, not simply by averting the worst climate change impacts, but
by spurring a new energy revolution." The Pentagon recognizes that our dependence on oil is problematic not only because of the threat of
climate change, but also because of volatile oil prices and supply disruptions that can threaten the military's energy supply. It's Operational
Energy Strategy states: The volatility of oil prices will continue to be a budgetary challenge for the Department, and the realities of global oil
markets mean a disruption of oil supplies is plausible and increasingly likely in the coming decades. The Services have already taken steps to
certify aircraft, ships, tactical vehicles, and support equipment to use alternative liquid fuels, a prudent insurance policy against future oil
supply disruptions and high prices. The Army also notes that
transporting fuel can be deadly
in a warzone.

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Turns Natural Disasters

Warming turns natural disasters
Borenstein, Science writer at the Associated Press, 2012, (Seth, Chicago
Sun Times Scientists warn of climate-change onslaught April 30,
http://www.suntimes.com/news/world/11585476-418/scientists-warn-ofclimate-change-onslaught.html)
<<Some weather extremes arent deadly, however. Sometimes, they are just strange. Report co-author
Easterling of the National Climatic Data Center says this months

U.S. heat wave, while not deadly, fits the pattern of worsening
extremes. The U.S. has set nearly 6,800 high temperature records in March. Last year, the United
States set a record for billion-dollar weather disasters, though many
were tornadoes. When you start putting all these events together,
the insurance claims, its just amazing, Easterling said. Its pretty
hard to deny the fact that theres got to be some climate signal.
Northeastern University engineering and environment professor Auroop Ganguly, who didnt take part
in writing the IPCC report, praised it and said the extreme weather it highlights is
one of the major and important types of what we would call global
weirding. Its a phrase that some experts have been starting to use
more to describe climate extremes. Field doesnt consider the term inaccurate, but he
doesnt use it. It feels to me like it might give the impression we are
talking about amusing little stuff when we are, in fact, talking about
events and trends with the potential to have serious impacts on large
numbers of people. AP 0, the scientists wrote in the journal
Ecosphere, a publication of the Ecological Society of America. Using
satellite-based fire records and 16 different climate change models,
the international team of researchers found that while wildfires will
increase in many temperate zones due to rising temperatures, fire
risk may actually decrease around the Equator, especially in tropical
rainforests, because of increased rainfall. "In the long run, we found
what most fear - increasing fire activity across large areas of the
planet," lead author Max Moritz of the University of CaliforniaBerkeley.>> "But the speed and extent to which some of these
changes may happen is surprising. These abrupt changes in fire
patterns not only affects people's livelihoods, but also they add
stress to native plants and animals that are already struggling to
adapt to habitat loss," Moritz said in a statement. Co-author Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech
David
University said this study gives a unique global perspective on recent fire patterns and their relationship to
Climate scientists, including those affiliated with the United

Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have projected
that more frequent wildfires would be likely in a warming world.
Other effects of global warming include more severe storms, floods
and droughts, these scientists have said.
climate.

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Turns Navy Power

Warming turns naval power
NBC March 2011, Navy's got new challenges with warming, experts say
cites National Research Council and Adm. Frank Bowman,
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/41990999/ns/us_news-environment/t/navys-gotnew-challenges-warming-experts-say/#.UdTrxBYTNdd, DOA 7/3/13
The U.S. Navy should plan for climate change impacts from costly
base repairs, to mobilizing for humanitarian aid and geopolitical
conflicts in the Arctic the National Research Council said in a report Thursday. "Even
the most moderate predicted trends in climate change will present
new national security challenges," retired Adm. Frank Bowman, co-chair of the
committee that wrote the report at the Navy's request, said in a statement. "Naval forces need
to monitor more closely and start preparing now for projected
challenges climate change will present in the future ," he added. As rising
temperatures continue to melt sea ice, Arctic sea lanes could be regularly open across
the Arctic by 2030, the report noted. The region is already seeing ships testing the waters, as well as
nations lining up to seek energy and mineral deposits. Russia has been among the most aggressive in
seeking energy riches, while Canada has beefed up its patrols. "The
geopolitical situation in
the Arctic region has become complex and nuanced, despite the area being essentially
ignored since the end of the Cold War," the experts wrote. In order to protect U.S. interests, they added,
"the Navy should begin Arctic training and the Marine Corps should also reestablish a cold-weather training
Rising sea levels and more extreme storm surges tied to

warming could also become costly for the Navy. A rise of three feet, the
experts said, would place at risk 56 Navy installations worth $100 billion. The
Navy should expect a rise by 2100 anywhere between a foot and six feet,
program.
they added.

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Turns Nuclear War

Turns nuclear war
Dyer 9 Gwynne, MA in Military History and PhD in Middle Eastern History
former @ Senior Lecturer in War Studies at the Royal Military Academy
Sandhurst, Climate Wars, CMR
THIS BOOK IS AN ATTEMPT, peering through a glass darkly, to understand the politics
and the strategies of the potentially apocalyptic crisis that looks set to occupy most of
the twentyfirst century. There are now many books available that deal with the science
of climate change and some that suggest pos sible approaches to getting the problem
under control, but there are few that venture very far into the grim detail of how real
countries experiencing very different and, in some cases, overwhelming pressures as
global warming proceeds, are likely to respond to the changes. Yet we all know that it's
mostly politics, national and international, that will decide the outcomes. Two things in
particular persuaded me that it was time to write this book. One was the realization that
the first and most important impact of climate change on human civilization
will be an acute and permanent crisis of food supply. Eating regularly
is a non-negotiable activity, and countries that cannot feed their people
are unlikely to be "reasonable" about it. Not all of them will be in what we
used to call the "Third World" -the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin
America. The other thing that finally got the donkey's attention was a dawning
climate change scenarios

are already playing a large and increasing role in the military
planning process. Rationally, you would expect this to be the case, because each
awareness that, in a number of the great powers,
country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter "threats" to
There is a
probability of wars, including even nuclear wars , if temperatures rise
its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming.
two to three degrees Celsius. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation
to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window.

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Keerthi Gondi
Turns Resource Wars

Turns resource conflicts droughts, food, and water
scarcity
Holtermann et al, Doctoral researcher at PRIO, Winter 2011 (Helge,
International Security Vol. 36, No. 3 pg 79-106 Climate Wars? Assessing the
Claim That Drought Breeds Conflct) CKP
Climate change is hot. Twice in recent years, the Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to environmental
activists: in 2004 to Wangari Maathai and in 2007 to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore. In April 2007, the UN Security Council held
its first ever debate on climate security. The chair of this debate, then British Foreign Secretary Margaret
Becket, left no doubt as to the connection between climate and confict: What
makes wars
start? Fights over water. Changing patterns of rainfall. Fights over
food production, land use.1 In the same year, a report by eleven retired U.S. generals and
admirals stated that environmental security is no longer soft politics,
concluding that climate change is a threat multiplier for instability
and confict that will have repercussions for all.2 And in a speech to the UN on
September 22, 2009, U.S. President and Nobel laureate Barack Obama asserted that the threat
from climate changes is serious, it is urgent, and it is growing, as
more frequent droughts and crop failures breed hunger and
confict.3 Surely, such statements must be based on solid scientific evidencemuch in the same
manner as the natural sciences inform the debate on likely physical changes? Not so. As a matter of fact,
the policy debate on the security implications of climate change has

run far ahead of the scientific evidence base . This study represents one scholarly
attempt to catch up with the rhetoric. At the heart of the climate security discourse lies the issue of water
A key characteristic of the worlds poorest and most vulnerable

societies is their dependence on rain-fed agriculture for income and
food supply. Global warming is likely to affect precipitation patterns
and increase the unpredictability of extreme weather events,
thereby probably having a negative impact on health and food
security in many parts of the world.4 Some argue that these developments might also have
implications for peace and security in a stricter sense. The environmental security
literature offers several case-based accounts of armed conflict
within the context of competition over scarce resources.5 Yet, it remains
scarcity.
unclear whether these cases are exceptions or whether they epitomize a more systematic pattern of
resource scarcity and conflict, in general, and drought and violent conflict, in particular.6

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Turns Struc. Violence

Turns struc. Violence- disproportionately impacts
marginalized groups.
Weiss & Madrid, Weiss is a Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy at the Center For
American and Jorge Madrid is a Research Associate at CAP, 2012 [By Daniel J. Weiss and Jorge Madrid,
Daniel J. Weiss is a Senior Fellow and Director of Climate Strategy at the Center For American and Jorge
Madrid is a Research Associate at CAP. More Action on Climate Change: CAPs Comments To the EPA on Its
Proposed Carbon Pollution Standard. ThinkProgress Climate Progress <
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/26/506541/more-action-on-climate-change-caps-comments-tothe-epa-on-its-proposed-carbon-pollution-standard/?mobile=nc > June 26, 2012 accessed 06272012.]
NWW
The United States will also experience an increase in regional ozone

pollution due to higher temperatures and poor air circulation. These
health concerned are shared by more than 120 health organizations including the American Academy of
Pediatrics, American Lung Association, American Medical Association, American Nurses Association,
American Public Health Association, American Thoracic Society, and others who favor reductions in carbon
pollution to protect public health. These organizations identified a number of serious health harms from
Climate change is a serious public health issue. As

temperatures rise, more Americans will be exposed to conditions
that can result in illness and death due to respiratory illness, heatand weather-related stress and disease carried by insects. These
health issues are likely to have the greatest impact on our most
vulnerable communities, including children, older adults, those with
serious health conditions and the most economically disadvantaged.
[15]
climate change:

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Keerthi Gondi
Turns Terrorism
Warming turns terror
Jill Fitzsimmons, May 30 2012, researcher on Media Matters' energy and
environment team. She holds a B.S. in Political Science from Santa Clara
University, cites 15 former military generals; 15 Military Leaders Who Say
Climate Change Is A National Security Threat;
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/05/30/15-military-leaders-who-sayclimate-change-is-a/184705, DOA 7/3/13
Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn, USN (Ret.): "If the destabilizing effects of climate
change go unchecked, we can expect more frequent, widespread,
and intense failed state scenarios creating large scale humanitarian
disasters and higher potential for conflict and terrorism ... The
Department of Defense and national intelligence communities recognize this clear
link between climate change, national security, and instability and have
begun strategic plans and programs to both mitigate and adapt to the most likely and serious effects in
key areas around the globe."

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Keerthi Gondi
Turns Relations/Instability
Turns instability and relationsstudies prove climate
cycles drive war and conflicts, empirically proven
Schiermeier, editor and writer for Nature specializing in policy and climate studies, degree in
geography, statistics and economics from University of Munich, 2011, Quirin, Nature Magazine,
Climate cycles drive civil war, August 24,
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110824/full/news.2011.501.html, last accessed 7.3.12
climate cycles seem to have a striking influence on war and

peace around the equator. Tropical countries face double the risk of
armed conflict and civil war breaking out during warm, dry El Nino
years than during the cooler La Nia phase of the El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), according to an
analysis published today inNature1. The study throws light on the hotly
contested issue of whether climate change has any notable effect on
violence and societal stability, particularly in poor countries. The authors
Natural
of several popular books have previously proposed a link, but there are disagreements within the scientific
literature over whether a robust climate signal can be detected in conflict statistics. Previous studies have
focused on the question of how anthropogenic climate change might increase conflict risk. A 2009 study2
by economist Marshall Burke at the University of California, Berkeley, and his co-workers found that the
probability of armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa was about 50% higher than normal in some unusually
warm years since 1981. But critics point to statistical problems for instance when linking possibly
random local temperature and rainfall variations with outbreaks of civil war that may have resulted in a
an economist
currently at Princeton University in New Jersey, and his colleagues opted to look
at how historical changes in the global, rather than local, climate
affect conflict risk1. Clear signal The team designed a 'quasi-experiment' for which they
divided the world into regions strongly affected by the ENSO the
tropical parts of South America, Africa and the AsiaPacific region, including parts of Australia and
regions only weakly affected by it. They then searched for a link
between climate and armed conflicts that arose in the first group
between 1950 and 2004. A very clear signal appeared in the data. The
team found that the risk of annual civil conflict doubles, from 3% to 6%, in
countries of the ENSO-affected, or 'teleconnected', group during El Nino
years relative to La Nia years. In many cases, conflicts that might have broken out
anyway may have occurred earlier owing to the effects of El Nio, Hsiang suggests.
false appearance of causality. To overcome this problem, Solomon Hsiang,
Civil conflicts have been by far the most common form of organized political violence in recent decades,
Hsiang says. Globally, one-fifth of the 240 or so civil conflicts since 1950 could be linked to the 47-year
climate cycle originating in the southern Pacific, the study concludes. The results were unaffected by any
modification to the statistical set-up of the analysis such as excluding particularly crisis-prone African
"A doubling of
risk is a very strong effect," says Halvard Buhaug, a conflict researcher with the Peace
countries which the team performed to confirm the robustness of their findings.
Research Institute Oslo, who was not involved in the study. Buhaug, who has previously criticized3 claims
such as Burke's, says he feels "surprised and a bit puzzled" by the results. He grants that the study is "very
competently executed" but adds that the issue is nonetheless far from being settled. "I don't dismiss that a
correlation exists, but it is a correlation we so far don't understand," he says. "I remain sceptical about any
potential causal connection." A more detailed analysis of the 'narratives' of historical conflicts that have
occurred during El Nio years is needed to establish whether any factors that may have caused these
conflicts such as harvest failures that led to food shortages can be traced to El Nio events, he says.
Greenhouse effects The authors of the study are aware of its limitation and of the difficulties involved in
case studies are

ongoing at Columbia University in New York and elsewhere on how El Nino events
might link to local outbreaks of violence. "Different hypotheses have been
establishing a causal link between climate and conflict. But, says Hsiang,
proposed as to how one phenomenon causes the other, and we aren't sure yet what the correct narrative
is," he says. "It
could be that agricultural income in El Nino years drops to

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levels that can trigger violence. Furthermore, psychologists think that aggressive
behaviour gets generally more widespread during exceptionally
warm conditions."

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Keerthi Gondi
Ext Climate Change Impact

Warming is real, anthropogenic, and causes extinction.
Deibel 7 (Terry L. Deibel, professor of IR at National War College, 2007,
Foreign Affairs Strategy, Conclusion: American Foreign
Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as
prosperity) of a nonviolent nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action. It is the threat
global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends.
Scientists worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three
decades now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty.
Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in
refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic
warming is occurring. In legitimate scientific circles, writes Elizabeth Kolbert, it is
virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the
fundamentals of global warming. Evidence from a vast international
scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly, as this sample of
newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts brutal droughts,
floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century; climate change
could literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge portions of Alpine
Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria; glaciers in the Antarctic
of
and in Greenland are melting much faster than expected, andworldwide, plants are blooming several days
earlier than a decade ago; rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in
the most destructive hurricanes; NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that
2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a close second; Earths warming climate is estimated to
contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year as disease spreads; widespread
bleaching from Texas to Trinidadkilled broad swaths of corals due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. The
world is slowly disintegrating, concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq, who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle.
They call it climate changebut we just call it breaking up. From the founding of the first cities some 6,000
years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained
relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm, and by
2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a
century, so there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we are thus in for significant
global warming; the only debate is how much and how serous the effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted
above show, we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms, spread of
disease, mass die offs of plants and animals, species extinction, and threatened inundation of low-lying countries
like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West
Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolinas
outer banks, swamp the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village.
Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation that keeps the winter
weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. Economist William Cline once estimated the
damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually; severe
the most frightening scenario is runaway

greenhouse warming, based on positive feedback from the buildup
of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures.
warming could cost 13-26 percent of GDP. But
Past ice age transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures, took
place in just decades, even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the
humankinds
continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to
playing Russian roulette with the earths climate and humanitys life
support system. At worst, says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New York University, were just
atmosphere. Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that
going to burn everything up; were going to het the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the
Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles, and then everything will collapse.
During the Cold War, astronomer Carl Sagan popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a
thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries
Global warming is the post-Cold War eras

equivalent of nuclear winter at least as serious and considerably
better supported scientifically. Over the long run it puts dangers
but possible end life on this planet.

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from terrorism and traditional military challenges to shame. It is a threat

not only to the security and prosperity to the United States, but potentially to the continued
existence of life on this planet.

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2NC Native Land Impact

NEW Impact
1- Oil exploitation in the Amazon destroys native rights
and indigenous land claims.
Governments claim the authority to manage natural resources

located on or below indigenous peoples territories for the public
interest, while indigenous peoples claim that their rights to property
and territory allow them the right to free, prior and informed
Consent (FPIC) regarding proposed extractive projects on their lands [54][55].
The key distinction lies between consultation and consent.
International law namely the 1989 International Labour Organization's Indigenous and Tribal Peoples
Convention No. 169 clearly mandates that indigenous peoples be consulted
about development projects on their territories [56]. Indeed, national regulations in
Ecuador and Peru, for example, mandate such consultation [57][58]. The question is, do indigenous peoples have the
right to reject a project planned on their territory after being properly consulted? The latest international instruments
indicate yes. The United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples adopted by the General Assembly in
2007 emphasizes FPIC prior to government approval of any project affecting indigenous lands or territories [59]. Also in
2007, the Inter-American Court on Human Rights issued a landmark ruling, Case of the Saramaka People v. Suriname, that
the State must ensure the right of local peoples to give or withhold their consent in regard to development projects that
may affect their territory [55]. A prerequisite for effective FPIC procedures is that
indigenous peoples
possess legal title to their traditional lands . The Inter-American

Human Rights System has dealt extensively with this issue. In 1998, the Inter-American Commission
found that it is a violation of the American Convention on Human
Rights (Article 21, Right to Property) for a government to grant an extractive
concession without the consent of the indigenous peoples of the
area. The Inter-American Court subsequently ruled that this right to property requires the
titling of their traditional territory [60]. Although many communities and nationalities have
obtained such title, others still have not (or else the process is incomplete). Given that most of the oil
blocks in question are in indigenous areas, the resolution of who
controls the land and its sub-surface resources will greatly influence
the development of the region.
2- This relationship with the indigenous positions

ourselves against them loss of cultural diversity directly
corresponds to loss of biodiversity only retrieval of this
knowledge can address the ongoing conquest of nature
Friedburg 00 (Lilian, author, activist, Masters in Humanities from
University of Chicago, Dare to Compare: Americanizing the Holocaust,
American Indian Quarterly 24.3 Summer 00, PJ Muse)
Collective indifference to these conditions on the part of both white and black America is a poor reflection
on the nations character. This collective refusal to acknowledge the genocide further exacerbates the
aftermath in Native communities and hinders the recovery process. This, too, sets the American situation
apart from the German-Jewish situation: Holocaust denial is seen by most of the world as an affront to the
victims seeking recovery

what is at stake today, at the
victims of the Nazi regime. In America, the situation is the reverse:
are seen as assaulting American ideals.
But

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dawn of a new millennium, is not the culture, tradition, and survival of one
population on one continent oneitherside of the Atlantic. What is at stake is
the very future of the human species. LaDuke, in her most recent work, contextualizes the
issues from a contemporary perspective: Our experience of survival and resistance is
shared with many others. But it is not only about Native people. . . . In the
final analysis, the survival of Native America is fundamentally about the
collective survival of all human beings. The question of who gets to
determine the destiny of the land, and of the people who live on itthose
with the money or those who pray on the landis a question that is alive
throughout society.57 There is, as LaDuke reminds us, a direct relationship
between the loss of cultural diversity and the loss of biodiversity. Wherever
Indigenous peoples still remain, there is also a corresponding enclave of
biodiversity.58But, she continues, The last 150 years have seen a great holocaust. There have
been more species lost in the past 150 years than since the Ice Age. (During
the same time, Indigenous peoples have been disappearing from the face of
the earth. Over 2,000 nations of Indigenous peoples have gone extinct in the
western hemisphere and one nation disappears from the Amazon rainforest
every year.)59 It is not about us as indigenous peoplesit is about us as a human species. We
are all related. At issue is no longer the Jewish question or the Indian problem. We must speak
today in terms of the human problem. And it is this problem for which not a final,
but a sustainable, viable solution must be found because it is no longer a matter of
serial genocide, it has become one of collective suicide. As Terrence Des Pres put it, in The
Survivor: At the heart of our problems is that nihilism which was all along the
destiny of Western culture: a nihilism either unacknowledged even as the
bombs fell or else, as with Hitler or Stalin, demonically proclaimed as the
new salvation.60 All of us must now begin thinking and acting in the
dimension and in the interest of the human speciesan intellectual domain
of vita activa that indigenous people have inhabited since time immemorial.
It is this modality of thought as a process of reflection that the civilized
nations must learn from the savage ones. Vine Deloria, in Native American
Spirituality, has attempted to clarify this distinction: American Indians look backwards in time to the
creation of the world and view reality from the perspective of the one species that has the capability to
reflect on the meaning of things. This attitude is generally misunderstood by non-Indians who act as if
reflection and logical thought were synonymous. But reflection is a special art and requires maturity of
personality, certainty of identity, and feelings of equality with the other life forms of the world. It consists,
more precisely, of allowing wisdom to approach rather than seeking answers to self-generated questions.
Such an attitude, then, stands in a polarized position to the manner in which society today conducts
itself.61 It is not a matter of moral bookkeeping or of winners and losers in the battle of the most
martyred minority. It is not a matter of comparative victimology, but one of collective survival. The
insistence on incomparability and uniqueness of the Nazi Holocaust is precisely what prohibits our
collective compre- hension of genocide as a phenomenon of Western civilization, not as a re- iterative
series of historical events, each in its own way unique. It is what inhibits our ability to name causes,
anticipate outcomes, and, above all to engage in preemptive political and intellectual action in the face
of contemporary exigencies.
3- This genocide against the natives precedes all other

impacts prioritize their survival.
Harff and Gur 81 (Harff and Gur, Northwestern, HUMANITARIAN
INTERVENTION AS A REMEDY FOR GENOCIDE, 1981, p. 40)
One of the most enduring and abhorrent problems of the world is genocide, which is neither particular to a specific race, class, or
Prohibition of genocide and

affirmation of its opposite,the value of life, are an eternal ethical
verity, one whose practical implications necessarily outweigh
possible theoretical objections and as such should lift it above
nation, nor is it rooted in any one, ethnocentric view of the world.

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prevailing ideologies or politics. Genocide concerns and

potentially effects all people. People make up a legal system, according to Kelsen. Politics is the expression of
conflict among competing groups. Those in power give the political system its character, i.e. the state. The state, according to Kelsen,
is nothing but the combined will of all its people. This abstract concept of the state may at first glance appear meaningless, because in
But I am not
concerned with the characteristics of the state but rather the
essence of the state the people. Without a people there would
be no state or legal system. With genocide eventually there will
be no people. Genocide is ultimately a threat to the existence of
all. True, sometimes only certain groups are targeted, as in Nazi Germany. Sometimes a large part of the total population is
reality not all people have an equal voice in the formation of the characteristics of the state.
eradicated, as in contemporary Cambodia. Sometimes people are eliminated regardless of national origin the Christians in Roman
times. Sometimes whole nations vanish the Amerindian societies after the Spanish conquest. And sometimes religious groups are
persecuted the Mohammedans by the Crusaders. The culprit changes: sometimes it is a specific state, or those in power in a state;
occasionally it is the winners vs. the vanquished in international conflicts; and in its crudest form the stronger against the weaker.
Since virtually every social group is a potential victim, genocide

is a universal concern.

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2NC Water Cycle Impact

Amazon is key to the Water Cycle
WWF 13 (About the Amazon, World Wildlife Foundation,
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/amazon/about_the_amazon
/, Keerthi, Accessed 8/26/13)
The water cycle : a highly efficient natural process Every year, the
Amazon rainforest receives torrential rainfall - between 1,500 mm and 3,000
mm.9 Where does all that water come from? Eastern trade winds that blow from the
Atlantic Ocean account for about half of the rainfall, with the other
half due to evapotranspiration - the loss of water from the soil by
evaporation and through transpiration from plants10 - in the
Amazon River Basin.11 If evapotranspiration and its role in
maintaining ecological balance is disrupted, the climate throughout
region - and well beyond - will be significantly impacted.
Disruptions in the water cycle cause extinction- forests

are key.
Chiang 04 [Mona, Science World Staff Writer, Apr 24, vol. 60 #13]
What if humans destroy all the world's rain forests? We're not sure what would
happen. [heat-trapping gas that contributes to global warming] absorb
large amounts of carbon dioxide quantity of oxygen. Rain forests
are . , affecting global climate. also important water recyclers: They
soak up moisture and send water vapor back into the Rain forests
are like giant lungs: The trees from the air and "exhale" a huge atmosphere. Without
rain forests, Earth's heat and water cycle would be damaged Humans
may not be able to cope with the change

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Border TI 1NC
NAFTA is failing now - Lack of investment in
transportation infrastructure is the Achilles heel of NAFTA
the plan is key to prevent collapse
Michael C. McClintock (Professor of Law, Gonzaga University School of Law) 2007 NAFTA'S
13TH YEAR: STEADILY INCREASING TRADE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO, TRANSPORTATION
INFRASTRUCTURE CRISIS, BUILDING A "DRY CANAL" ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND MORE 14 Sw. J.L. &
Trade Am. 25, Lexis
Transportation infrastructure is a significant portion of a nation's wealth so long as efficient freight
movement over that system is maintained. n95 In fact, the emergence of highly integrated just-in-time
inventory strategies in the United States was made possible by fast, reliable trucking services. n96 But
The increased
emphasis on meeting delivery windows and reducing the amount of
inventory maintained on site heightens the need for a [*42]
transportation system that provides the reliability, transit time,
efficiency, cost and damage minimization sought. When the transportation
success may have sown the seeds for disaster. As one report warned,
system cannot meet these parameters, then the cost to the economic well-being of the country can be
tremendous. n97 The result has been that freight volumes have grown dramatically and are expected to
The increasing volumes of NAFTA-trade constitutes

one-third of the U.S. worldwide merchandise trade totals. n99 Although
increase 70% by 2020. n98
"historically the U.S. has been a world leader in freight system design and management, ... in recent years
it has become alarmingly apparent that investment to maintain and improve our aging transportation
system has not kept pace with the burgeoning growth in freight flows." n100 This author concluded that
if "we don't start fixing it, we'll be in big troub le." n101 Simply put, the U.S.
transportation system has not kept pace with the growth in freight transportation and now faces serious
overcapacity and congestion issues. n102 These themes are echoed throughout many studies. [*43] B.
Inadequate Capacity "Clearly, more traffic is moving over essentially the same highway infrastructure."
n103 When demand outstrips supply, the result is congestion which can have devastating effects on speed
and reliability. n104 Congestion has been described as insidious. "One, you lose productivity because you
can't move, and two, you're burning up fuel and using driver hours," one trucking company executive
explained. n105 The U.S. General Accounting Office ("GAO") said that in 1999, congestion adversely
impacted truck-driver productivity; n106 in 2000, congestion on U.S. highways was bad; n107 in 2003,
insufficient and aged infrastructure was a major contributor to freight congestion and bottlenecks; n108
and in 2005, congestion was getting worse. n109 In 2006, the GAO said even more emphatically:
Increasing passenger travel and freight movement have led to growing congestion, and decision makers
face the challenge of maintaining the nation's mobility while preventing congestion from overwhelming the
transportation system. Successfully addressing mobility needs in the face of growing congestion requires
both strategic and intermodal approaches ... . n110 Mike Eskew, CEO of United Parcel Service, recently
told business leaders that "the inability of our transportation infrastructure to keep up with the normal dayto-day stresses imposed upon it was shocking." He further warned that America was risking its future by
neglecting its infrastructure. n111 One high-profile group has been even blunter: America's long and
successful ride to prosperity is threatened by a transportation infrastructure incapable of meeting future
requirements. The interdependent network of roads, bridges, and terminals is growing increasingly
antiquated, congested and disconnected, [*44] and therefore, incapable of providing the productivity and
prosperity support upon which the nation has depended for the last century and a half. n112 Another
analysis has been equally pessimistic: There is no doubt in anyone's mind that long-haul trucking can no
longer keep pace with the skyrocketing demand for commercial transportation in the U.S... . nor are
prospects hopeful. "It is unlikely that highway capacity will expand rapidly in the coming decades ...
current annual revenues will suffice only to maintain the highway system, not provide significant new
capacity." The bottom line: highway congestion will worsen, the speed and reliability of truck freight
The United
States already loses $ 200 billion a year due to congestion and
bottlenecks. n114 Today, this remains the number one problem for over-the-road freight companies
transportation will deteriorate, and costs to shippers and receivers may rise. n113
and their drivers. As one freight commentator has noted, "Highways are our assembly line. You cannot
decouple economic growth from transportation growth." n115 The demand for intermodal freight will
increase by 78% in the next decade, which means that at least $ 5 billion will have to be invested in
infrastructure just to keep up. n116 The United States is rapidly exhausting its land-side transportation
capacity. n117
Since NAFTA's inception, trade between the United States

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and Mexico has grown 232%, n118 yet neither country has made the
adjustments necessary to handle the growing traffic. n119 NAFTA has
steadily increased the demand for transportation infrastructure and
services - [*45] although its text gives this subject scant attention.
However, transportation issues have now become more and more
visible. Rising logistic costs may well prove to be the last remaining
barrier to NAFTA free trade. n120 One astute commentator has connected the dots: It is
the quality of the transportation infrastructure that will ultimately determine competitiveness, economic
As a result, NAFTA's ultimate success rests on the

ability ... to plan and implement an efficient continental
transportation system. To accomplish this objective, a new approach
will be required, one that involves cooperation, commitment to a shared vision,
growth, and overall success.
and the basic understanding that the economic future of all three nations are intrinsically linked ... . n121
The full benefits of NAFTA can not be fully realized until the
overland transportation system linking the U.S. and Mexico is
modernized. n122 One author places these costs at more than $ 1.3 trillion. 123 Currently, however,
there continues to be no continental strategy for upgrading and
expanding NAFTA's transportation grid.
<Impact>

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Non-Border 1NC
NAFTA is failing now.
In
<Link>
<Impact>

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2NC OV
Extend McClintock NAFTA fails now and is on the way out
because of lack of trade systems between the US and
Mexico. NAFTA has increased demand for infrastructure
and services, and rising logistics costs is the last barrier
to full NAFTA free trade. The full benefits cant be realized
until the transportation system is fully modernized.
Congestion worsens the ability of NAFTA to fully function.
The plan obviously reverses this, which our evidence
indicates would revitalize NAFTA.
Framing Issue if they win that NAFTA is doing fine now
that means their aff is non-inherent. Our McClintock
evidence indicates that NAFTA can only do well if the
transportation system is functioning.
Impact outweighs
Turns case - NAFTA destroys the Mexican economy and
increases violence.

Although NAFTA has been detrimental for the United States, the free
trade agreement has been far worse for Mexico. While proponents touted NAFTA as
ostensibly a beneficial social policy, the income gap in Mexico has in fact widened
since NAFTAs implementation, with this development creating even more poverty in a country
already afflicted with the concentration of wealth in too few hands. The poverty rate in Mexico rose from 45.6 percent in
1994 to 50.3 percent in 2000, and the number continues to climb.(11) In 2010, the World Bank reported the most recent
Perhaps
the most devastating blow dealt by NAFTA to the Mexican economy
was the near destruction of Mexicos agricultural sector, in which 2
million farm workers lost their jobs and 8 million small-scale farmers
were forced to sell their land at disastrously low prices, or desert it,
due to sharply declining food prices.(13) Importantly, the U.S. government subsidizes many
poverty rate in Mexico at 51.3 percent.(12) Source: Omar Torres/Agence France-Press- Getty Images
domestically produced agricultural products, allowing the products to be sold to Mexico at prices 30 percent below the
after NAFTAs inauguration, U.S. agricultural exports

crowded out Mexican agriculture produce, and the United States became the main food
cost of production.(14) Thus,
supplier of Mexico. In one case, U.S. corn exports, by maintaining subsidized prices, have all but rendered Mexican corn
cultivation obsolete and non-competitive. Corn, or maize, had been one of the main crops and an integral part of the
identity of the Mexican people since pre-Columbian days, but due to subsidized U.S. agricultural products, this tradition
has all but come to an end. Thus, NAFTA has not only negatively impacted Mexicos economy, but also altered its national
Due to the decline in the competitiveness

of Mexican agricultural products, the rural population has been
pushed from the countryside into the cities to seek employment in
the booming manufacturing sector, one of the many paradoxical
consequences of NAFTA. Many American corporations took advantage of this plethora of cheap labor
identity by infringing on ancestral traditions.
and constructed factories along the U.S.-Mexico border, creating the maquiladora system. While these factories, or

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maquilas, created 1.3 million jobs in the export-manufacturing sector, they still were not able to counterbalance jobs lost
in the agricultural sector, and it was not long before foreign competition threatened these newly created jobs.(15) Since
one third of all NAFTA-created manufacturing jobs in Mexico have

disappeared as North American corporations continue to offshore
operations to China, where manufacturing wages are about an eighth of those in Mexico.(16)
Although NAFTA is not the only cause of the economic distress
Mexico has faced in the past decade, the economic pact failed to
generate a Mexican economy capable of competing in a global
market, thus negating what little economic benefit it brought
Mexico. Moreover, even with the creation of new manufacturing
jobs, Mexican living conditions have consistently declined since
NAFTAs advent. In the pacts first five years, real wages in Mexico fell by 20 percent, and workers in the
2001,
manufacturing sector now earn about a fourth of their pre-NAFTA wages.(17) Additionally, the prices of most goods in
Mexico have significantly increased. The cost of tortillas, which represent 75 percent of the daily caloric intake for
Mexicos poor, increased by 571 percent in the first six years of NAFTA, rendering meager wages even more insufficient
than before NAFTAs implementation(18) and making it increasingly difficult for families to meet basic needs. Wage
disparities between Americans and Mexicans have also widened. In 1994, Mexicans earned 23 percent of what Americans
With this wage reduction,

the lower class in Mexico has expanded, pushing more povertystricken individuals into areas that were already troubled by
inadequate housing, healthcare, and public safety,(20) and
generating further problems for the Mexican state, such as drug
violence and urban sprawl.
earned overall; by 2006, the differential had dropped to 12 percent.(19)
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2NC Uniqueness NAFTA Fail Now

NAFTA is failing now.
In
Free trade cant workNAFTA and every other free-trade

agreement in the past decade prove.

With the Republicans and the Obama administration attempting to
rush headlong into a new trade agreement with Korea , and possibly also with
Panama and Colombia as well, it is incumbent on Americans to apply a bit of empiricism . How have our past trade
agreements worked out? Above all, how's the grand-daddy of them
all, NAFTA, doing? Unfortunately, NAFTA is a veritable case study in failure.
This is all the more damning because this treaty was created, and is
administered, by the very Washington elite that is loudest in
proclaiming free trade's virtues. So there is no room for excuses
about incompetent implementation, the standard alibi for free trade's failures in the developing world. So
if free trade was going to work anywhere, it should have been here .
Instead, what happened? NAFTA was sold as a policy that would reduce America's trade deficit. But our trade balance
actually worsened against both Canada and Mexico. For the four years prior to
NAFTA's implementation in 1994, America's annual deficit with Canada averaged a modest $8.1 billion. Twelve years later, it was up to $71

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billion. Our trade with Mexico showed a $1.6 billion surplus in 1993 but by 2010, our deficit had reached $61.6 billion. Eccentric billionaire
and 1992 presidential candidate H. Ross Perot was roundly mocked for predicting a "giant sucking sound" of jobs going to Mexico if NAFTA
passed. But he has been vindicated. The Department of Labor has estimated that NAFTA cost America 525,000 jobs between 1994 and 2002.
NAFTA has eliminated some 766,000

job opportunities--primarily for non-college-educated workers in
manufacturing. Contrary to what the American promoters of NAFTA promised U.S. workers, the agreement did not result in an
According to the more aggressive Economic Policy Institute:
increased trade surplus with Mexico, but the reverse. As manufacturing jobs disappeared, workers were down-scaled to lower-paying, lesssecure services jobs. Within manufacturing, the threat of employers to move production to Mexico proved a powerful weapon for undercutting
The idea of Mexico as a vast export market for

American products is a sad joke; Mexicans are simply too poor. In the 1997
words of Business Mexico, a pro-NAFTA publication of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico: The reality is that
only between 10 and 20 percent of the population are really
considered consumers. The extreme unequal distribution of wealth has created a distorted market, the economy is
workers' bargaining power.
hamstrung by a work force with a poor level of education, and a sizable chunk of the gross domestic product in devoted to exports rather than
production for home consumption. According to official figures that year, fewer than 18 million Mexicans made more than 5,000 pesos a
month. And even that was only about $625: roughly half the U.S. poverty line for a family of four. This has not improved much since, so, as
Mexico's economy is so small--its GDP is less than four percent

that of the United States--that for the foreseeable future it will be neither a major supplier nor a major market."
Paul Krugman has pointed out, "
But if NAFTA wasn't a plausible economic bonanza for the U.S. and America's establishment knew it, then what was going on? Krugman again
supplies an answer, writing in Foreign Affairs that, "For the United States, NAFTA is essentially a foreign policy rather than an economic issue."
The real agenda was to keep people like President Carlos Salinas, friendly with powerful interests in the U.S., in power in Mexico City. Bottom
Free trade was pushed not because of any sincerely anticipated

economic benefits, but to serve an extraneous foreign policy agenda .
To his credit, Krugman later admitted the utter chicanery of it all, writing in The New Democrat in 1996 that: The agreement
was sold under false pretences. Over the protests of most economists, the Clinton Administration chose to
line?
promote NAFTA as a jobs-creation program. Based on little more than guesswork, a few economists argued that NAFTA would boost our trade
surplus with Mexico, and thus produce a net gain in jobs. With utterly spurious precision, the administration settled on a figure of 200,000 jobs
created--and this became the core of the NAFTA sales pitch. NAFTA was sold in Mexico as Mexico's ticket to the big time. Mexicans were told
they were choosing between gradually converging with America's advanced economy and regressing to the status of a backwater like
neighboring Guatemala. What actually happened? In reality, the income gap between the United States and Mexico grew (by over 10
percent) in the first decade of the agreement. This doesn't mean America boomed; we didn't. But Mexico slumped terribly. In NAFTA's first
decade, the Mexican economy averaged 1.8 percent real growth per capita. By contrast, under the protectionist economic policies of 1948-73,
Mexico had averaged 3.2 percent growth. Because Mexico's labor force grows by a million people a year, job creation must get ahead of this
curve in order to raise wages; this is simply not happening. Mexican workers can often be hired for less than the taxes on American workers;
the average maquiladora wage is $1.82/hr. The maquiladora sector is deliberately isolated from the rest of the Mexican economy and
contributes little to it. Workers' rights, wages, and benefits are deliberately suppressed. Environmental laws are frequently just ignored.
Mexican agriculture hasn't benefited either: NAFTA turned Mexico

from a food exporter to a food importer overnight and over a million farm jobs were
wiped out by cheap American food exports, massively subsidized by our various farm programs. Promoters of NAFTA have tried to cover up
its problems by using inappropriate yardsticks of success. For example, they have claimed that the expansion of total trade among the three
nations vindicates the pact. But this expansion has been due to a growing American deficit. Because a growing deficit means, by definition,
that our imports have been growing faster than our exports, there is no way that economic growth per se will ever solve the problem.
Congress was right to reject NAFTA initially, which never enjoyed sincere majority support in either the House or the Senate and was bought
with sheer patronage by Bill Clinton. To be fair, NAFTA is not the only thing that has been wrong with the Mexican economy in recent decades.
NAFTA was the capstone to a series of dubious free-market

economic experiments carried out there since the early 1980s. Between 1990 and
But
1999, Mexican manufacturing wages fell 21 percent. It gets worse. Despite the fact that, compared to the U.S., Mexico is a cheap-labor
Mexico is now losing

manufacturing jobs to China in such areas as computer parts,
electrical components, toys, textiles, sporting goods, and shoes: 200,000
in the first two years of the millennium alone. Mexico's trade deficit against the rest of the
world has actually worsened since NAFTA was signed. In the words of liberal
economy, there are plenty of nations with even lower average wages. For example,
commentator William Greider, "The Mexican maquiladora cities thought they were going to become the next South Korea, but instead they
NAFTA is not America's only free trade agreement, of

course. But our other agreements tell similar tales. We have signed
11 since 2000: with Australia, Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Korea, Oman, Morocco, Singapore, Panama, and Peru. (El
may be the next Detroit."
Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic were lumped together in the Central America Free Trade Agreement
Every agreement but one has coincided with greater American

deficits. The only exception is Singapore, where our existing surplus increased somewhat. But Singapore is tiny, a mere city-state.
Nevertheless, our government pushes for more. As of 2011, country agreements with
or CAFTA.)
Colombia, South Korea, Oman and Panama were pending ratification, and the U.S. was in stalled negotiations with Malaysia, Thailand and the
United Arab Emirates. Next on the list are reportedly Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In December 2009, the Obama
administration announced its intention to eventually join the existing Trans-Pacific Partnership and elevate it into a full-blown free trade area
comprising the U.S. plus Singapore, Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, Australia, Peru, and Vietnam. In December 2010, the administration reached a
slightly-improved deal with South Korea and announced it would push for Congressional ratification.

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2NC Link Border TI

The plan ensures deep North American economics
necessary for optimum NAFTA functioningkey to trade
integration.
Blank, Golob, and Stanley, 06 *Stephen, Pace University, Stephanie R., Baruch
College, *Guy, McGill University (Staying Alive: North American Competitiveness and the Challenge of
Asia, Pace University Lubin School of Business, 10/1/06,
http://digitalcommons.pace.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1077&context=lubinfaculty_workingpapers)
hear North American integration described as deep would

surprise many skeptics in the academic community, particularly those whose
To
conceptualizations of regional economic integration (REI) are based upon Europe as the model and the measure of the
While it is true that the NAFTA agreement itself purposefully

eschewed a top-down institutionalized approach and rejected policies such as a common
currency, a regional parliament, and other identity-building exercises, we would argue that North America
represents a different, alternative model of REI based upon three main
pillars: entrepreneurialism, decentralization, and (associated with the former two)
adaptation. NAFTA was itself not the starting point of regional integration on our continent: by the late 1980s,
phenomenon.
when Mexicos government accelerated trade liberalization and the US and Canada were negotiating their bilateral Free
Trade Agreement, corporate strategies and investment decisions in all three countries were already shifting towards a
regional, rather than simply national, perspective.1 Particularly influential was the end of the branch plant model based
upon protectionist barriers to investment in Canada and Mexico, a model which also saddled U.S. companies with excess
capacity at a time of tougher international competition and falling profit margins. Canadian 1 In the early 1990s, several
key surveys of managers of US firms with long-established operations in Canada and Mexico indicated that the US-Canada
FTA and NAFTA had simply intensified trends already underway towards continental-wide corporate strategies and
organizations. See Stephen Krajewski, Multinational Firms Across the Canada-U.S. Border: An Investigation of Intrafirm
Trade and Other Activities, (Ottawa: Conference Board of Canada, 1992); Jerry Haar and Stephen Blank, Making NAFTA
Work: U.S. Firms and the New North American Business Environment (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998).
Introduction 1 Staying Alive: North American Competitiveness firms, always concerned about market access and
access to larger pools of capital, found greater incentives to look south, while the end of corporate welfare with the
dismantling of institutionalized protectionism in Mexico also chastened its previously risk-averse private sector and gave
impetus to export orientation and the search for joint ventures.2 Even before NAFTA, and to an increasing extent after,
intra-firm trade exploded, and just-in-time cross-border production, supply and distribution strategies further enhanced
The cumulative result of all this

cross-border trade and investment has been, for most practical
purposes, the development of an integrated regional economy based
upon a degree of collaboration and complementarity between
countries that is unprecedented. But most notably, it is integration
that has been driven bottom-up by businesses looking for new
ways to expand and survive, and its evolution has been uneven and
to some extent invisible on the national radar screens because it has
accelerated in particular cross-border regions, moved along with
help by adaptive and, in their own way, entrepreneurial subnational
governments (i.e., local and state/provincial jurisdictions) enjoying relative autonomy
within all three federalist systems. Freed or, from a somewhat different political perspective,
the efficiency and efficacy of North American business.
unleashed from top-down government projects and planning, North American integration has deepened in an uneven,
market-driven, de facto manner while sidestepping the paralyzing political battles over sovereignty that an attempt to
adopt a European system would certainly have set off. While advocates of North American integration may have
celebrated such an under the radar approach in the past, the challenge of expanding trade and competition with Asia
raises the question regarding whether North America, Inc. can continue down this market-based, decentralized adaptive
path into the future. While business was pretty much able to retool itself in the 1980s, todays new challenges reveal what
the limits to bottom-up growth, specifically having to do with issues such as transportation, border infrastructure, and
regulation. It is both the scale of Chinas export push (helped along with the expiration of the multifibre agreement) and
the technological leaps made in transoceanic shipping that have raised concerns regarding the sorry state of North
such concerns naturally invoke the need of

public authorities to take key investment decisions (whether public or publicprivate or privatized) regarding these key nodes of municipal, state/provincial, and national
infrastructure that now must serve trinational or regional economic interests. Specifically, if North America is to
Americas ports, railways, and roads. But
stay alive and remain competitive in todays global markets by which we mean not a Fortress North America

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exclusionary strategy, but rather a strategy that seeks to attract both investment and trade from dynamic Asian
economies by maximizing the competitive advantage of North America as a site of production, consumer markets, and
innovation the moment of truth has arrived regarding the unsexy but essential issue of the health and maintenance of
the plumbing of the North American economic system.
NAFTA failsborder infrastructure insufficient

Bronk and Payan 2009Dr. Christopher Bronk is a Fellow in Society,
Technology and Public Policy and the James A. Baker III Institute For Public
Policy at Rice University. Dr. Tony Payan is the Assistant Professor of Political
Science at the University of Texas at El Paso. [Developing the U.S.-Mexico
Border Region for a Prosperous and Secure Relationship. Managing the U.S.Mexico Border: Human Security and Technology. April 1, 2009.
http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/LAI-pub-BorderSecBronkPayan040109.pdf)
Infrastructure The impact of the growth of cross-border economic
integration on border infrastructure has been colossal, as has been
the increased inspection protocols by U.S. border officials , as dictated by
the Department of Homeland Security after September 11 . Economic integration has
strained the existing infrastructure because economic activity has
grown at a faster pace than investment in infrastructure. In addition,
border security measures implemented after September 11 have
been found to impede the transborder flow of goods and people . A
study by El Colegio de la Frontera Norte shows that the efficiency of cross-border infrastructure has
nearly 46 percent of all roads and

highways leading to border stations are in poor condition. Fifty-five
percent of the municipal roads by which passenger vehicles access
border crossings are insufficient for the volume of traffic . Commercial
decreased over time. Some general findings are that
routes also face serious obstacles: 50 percent have excessive traffic, 17 percent have limited road access,
and l2 percent have long queues to pass through the port. In regard to pedestrian crossings, there are too
few inspection booths at 74 percent of' all U.S.-Mexico border crossings and too few U.S. Customs and
86 percent of the
border-related national transportation system needs to be improved
so that export goods can reach their destination in a timely manner.
16 the current infrastructure is simply insufficient to handle the
volume of traffic, and the result is long queues, excessive traffic, and increased vehicular
Border Protection (CBP) inspectors at 80 percent of all ports of' entry. Finally,
pollution.

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2NC Link NAD Bank

NAD Bank success translates to NAFTA success
NPI 12 (New Policy Institute, Research at the 21st Century Border Center,
Sept 25, 2012, Assessing NADBANKs impact in the Mexican border region, ,
http://21border.com/2012/09/25/assessing-nadbanks-impact-in-the-mexicanborder-region/, Keerthi, Acc 12/1/13)
According to Director Geronimo Gutirrez, the North American Development Bank
(NADBANK) has invested $1.2 billion in 155 projects on both sides of the
U.S.-Mexico border since its inception in 1994. NADBANK is jointly
funded by the U.S. and Mexican governments, and was created by NAFTA 20 years ago
with
a purpose of helping both governments to have a tool to
protect, preserve and enhance the environment and the quality of

life of border communities. The city of Nuevo Laredo has been the second-leading
recipient of funding from the bank, after Tijuana. Two years ago, a project funded by NADBANK and run by
Most projects target

basic services, from street paving to sewer systems. And thanks to new sewage plants, now 85
percent of raw water is treated, compared to 27 percent pre-NAFTA.
the citys public works department paved 55 street miles in the city.

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1NC Link Microfinancing

Micro-financing creates the conditions necessary for
NAFTA success.
GAO 2005 (Govt. Accountability Office, March 25 2013, U.S. Agencies
Need Greater Focus to Support Mexico's Successful Transition to Liberalized

Agricultural Trade Under NAFTA, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-05-272,
Recommendations for Executive Action
Recommendation: To aid the full and successful implementation of
NAFTA, the Secretary of State, as the head of one of the lead agencies for the P4P initiative, should work with USDA
and other relevant agencies to develop an action plan under P4P laying out specific collaborative efforts on rural
development that would support the successful implementation of NAFTA. Such a plan could include a comprehensive
activities that are intended to address the

challenges presented by lagging rural development to Mexico's
successful transition to liberalized agricultural trade under NAFTA, and sets time frames and performance
strategy that outlines specific
measures for these activities. Agency Affected: Department of State Status: Closed - Not Implemented Comments: In
its agency comments, State Department reported that the P4P principals from the Departments of State, Commerce and
Treasury, together with their Mexican counterparts, agreed on February 17, 2005, to create seven permanent working
groups on critical development issues, including a working group on rural development. State Department also reported
that each of the working groups was asked to identify private sector co-leads and to develop an action plan for 2005
activities. However, State Department was not able to provide copies of the P4P action plan for rural development to
demonstrate that indeed such a collaborative plan had been developed and implemented. Recommendation:
To
promote rural development in Mexico and enhance Mexican small farmers' ability
to benefit from trade opportunities under NAFTA, which would also help shape
a more positive perception of the agreement, the Secretary of State, as the lead agency
for the P4P initiative, should work with USDA and other relevant agencies to expand collaborative efforts with the Mexican
This would include providing

Mexico with expertise in the area of rural financing, such as risk
government to facilitate credit availability in the countryside.
assessment, project management, and loan evaluation . Agency Affected:

Department of State Status: Closed - Implemented Comments: The Partnership for Prosperity (P4P) initiative was
designed to assist economically depressed regions of Mexico that are the primary sources of migration, typically rural
regions in Mexico. However, our report found that P4P documents did not address Mexico's successful transition to
liberalized agricultural trade under NAFTA, and P4P action plans did not set forth specific strategies and activities that
facilitating rural
credit was one area in which the United States, through P4P, was in a position to
could be used to advance rural development in support of free trade. We concluded that
collaborate with Mexico. In a letter after the report was issued, the Department of State said that the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) had started a new five-year project called Access to Rural Finance for the
Microenterprise (AFIRMA) to strengthen institutions in Mexico's

microfinance sector and expand and improve services in rural finance.
According to USAID, this project has a budget of $10 million, half of which is focused on
developing rural or agricultural finance in Mexico. In September 2007, at the conclusion of the
project's third year, USAID reported that it had helped strengthen the capacity of
microfinance institutions, offered training to develop the local
microfinance industry, analyzed agricultural value chains as part of a
process to help identify opportunities to expand agricultural finance, and
worked with Mexican financial regulators to expand supervision of
microfinance institutions. The report identified future initiatives that would be executed in support of
project goals.

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1NC Link Counternarcotic Operations/Border

Security/Military
____ is a major strain on NAFTA ties countering this
improves the agreement.
Gabriel 10 (Dana Gabriel, researcher at the Center for Global Research,
Strengthening NAFTA Ties and the Push Towards a Common Security Front,
June 9 2010, http://www.globalresearch.ca/strengthening-nafta-ties-and-thepush-towards-a-common-security-front, Keerthi, Acc 12/1/13)
As a result of
Security
the NAFTA
relationship has suffered
Mexicos
drug war servi as a catalyst for more North American cooperation
and integration in areas of border security, law enforcement and
the demise of the
and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) of North America,
trilateral
. This has forced many of the SPPs objectives to be funneled through various bilateral initiatives.
is also
the military.
ng
Canada is being encouraged to further engage and commit itself alongside the U.S. in helping Mexico. Some have described the Canada-Mexico partnership as a failed
opportunity with Ottawa more preoccupied with U.S. concerns. Mexican President Felipe Calderons recent trip to Canada was seen as a chance to strengthen bilateral bonds and push for more trade and investment
between the two NAFTA partners. In a press statement, Calderon highlighted, The reason for this visit is to consolidate and expand our bilateral relationship at all levels. While addressing a joint session of
Integration is key to restoring strong

sustained growth in North America
security
is being called upon to expand and deepen cooperation with
Mexico on police and judicial issues.
Parliament, he called for closer ties with Canada and the United States. He emphasized that,
. Calderon characterized Mexico as a, valuable neighbor and a strategic partner for the future of North
Americas prosperity. His message was clear as he championed the need for deeper economic integration and warned against protectionism. Also on the agenda was North American
as
Canada
At the 2009 North American Leaders Summit, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that
Canada was working with the U.S. and Mexico in the fight against drug trafficking and transnational organized crime. He launched the Anti-Crime Capacity Building Program which will invest $15 million per year
and, expand Canadian law enforcement and criminal justice capacity building assistance to targeted states in the Americas. Assistance will be provided for projects that reflect Canadas policy priorities and
obligations within the key international anti-crime conventions. This includes illicit drugs, corruption, human trafficking, money laundering, security system reform and crime prevention. Under the program, Canada
has already provided RCMP personnel and funding to help train Mexican Federal police. During Calderons recent visit, Canada and Mexico also announced several (other) anti-crime capacity building projects that
the Government of Canada will be undertaking to support Mexicos robust and ongoing efforts to combat corruption and reform its legal system. This includes training for Mexican judges and lawyers and a
harmonization of Mexicos criminal law. An updated air transport agreement, as well as a number of other bilateral initiatives were also reached during Calderons state visit to Canada. In addition, there was a
Memorandum of Understanding on Youth Mobility which, will simplify and facilitate the administrative procedures for qualified Canadian and Mexican youth, aged 18 to 29, to travel and work in each others country
for up to one year. This could be a precursor to a larger labour mobility agreement. Canada and Mexico signed a Joint Action Plan aimed at, fostering competitive and sustainable economies, protecting our
citizens, enhancing people-to-people Contacts and projecting our partnership globally and regionally. Harper proclaimed, We are setting the stage for the next decade of growth and cooperation between our two
countries, He went on to say, The initiatives signed today demonstrate that we are deepening our relations in a wide number of areas that will benefit both our peoples. Before his trip to Canada, Calderon was
in Washington to meet with President Barack Obama where border security and Mexicos drug war were high on the agenda. He was very critical of Arizonas Senate Bill 1070 which allows police to question and
detain suspects who cant prove citizenship. The Obama administration has threatened a legal challenge to the new law. The bill is the result of growing frustration over the lack of immigration enforcement. Other
states are looking to pass similar legislation in efforts to curb illegal immigration. Perhaps feeling the heat, Obama recently announced plans to send 1,200 troops to U.S.-Mexico border to counter cross-border drug
and weapons trafficking. The move was seen by some as more of a symbolic gesture and a political ploy to try and win over Republican support for immigration reform. It was later reported that the National Guard
soldiers would not be used to stop illegal immigration. Former U.S. Congressman Tom Tancredo acknowledged, The desire is not to fix the problem. The desire is to have amnesty. All of this is in anticipation of
Many aspects
are closely tied to a common
perimeter approach to border management and security
amnesty.
concerning comprehensive U.S. immigration reform
which could later include
harmonization of immigration and customs standards. While addressing a joint meeting of Congress, Calderon said, Mexico is a country in transformation. This is making us an even more strategic partner for the
future prosperity of the American people. The world is more global and more interconnected every day. It is also divided into large economic regions. Those regions that maximize their comparative advantages will
be the ones that succeed. And we both need to compete with Asia and with Europe. Mexico and the United States are stronger together than they are apart. He also added, So I invite you to work with Mexico and
consolidate North America as the most competitive region in the world. A joint statement by the leaders declared that, The bilateral dialogue between Presidents Obama and Calderon underscores their
commitment to strengthening the strategic partnership between both countries, and they will continue working closely together in bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral fora over the coming months, as befitting two
partners and nations uniquely important for the well-being, prosperity and security of one another. Calderon used his visits to the U.S. and Canada to boost NAFTA relations. He was not shy about his wish for
deeper North American integration and although the defunct SPP was not mentioned by name, many of its goals were front and center. In a recent article Manuel Prez-Rocha of the Institute for Policy Studies
stated, While Obama has written off the infamous, Bush-led Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) of North America, its main elements persist in todays bilateral relations. Some of the terminology has changed:
the smart border, for example, is now the 21st-century border. However, U.S. priorities continue to be deregulating trade, enforcing intellectual property rights, and guaranteeing energy security in North
America to meet the energy needs of the United States. Manuel went on to say, The United States has channeled more than $1.3 billion into security operations in Mexico. Although violence in Mexico continues
to soar, claiming more than 23,000 lives since Calderon took office, the Obama administration continues to back Calderons failed military strategy to curb drug trafficking. Homeland Security Secretary Janet
Napolitanorecently admitted that the U.S. military has been working inside Mexico alongside Mexican armed forces in the battle against drug cartels. Under Obama, the Merida Initiative which has its roots in the SPP
, Mexicos drug war is being seen as a

continental problem that requires continental solutions which is
further pushing the NAFTA partnership into a common security
has continued and expanded cooperation in regards to common security threats. Increasingly
front .
common security perimeter would be a more effective way of
safeguarding North America
trade, investment and labour
This is escalating the militarization of the borders, integration in areas of law enforcement and the military, as well as advancing the development of a North American security perimeter. Some
believe that a
while ensuring the free flow of
would force Canada and Mexico to take on more U.S. security priorities and further place them at the mercy of American foreign policy. A continental security perimeter would be another incremental step in the
creation of a North American Union.
. This

File Title
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1NC Link Immigration

Increased migration/decreased illegal immigration
improves NAFTA low migration is a current strain.
Macias 2009 (Gustavo A. Flores-Macias, Prof. of Latin American Politics, Economy, and Society @
Cornell University, PhD in political science from Georgetown University and a masters in public policy from
Duke University, fellow at Cornells Polson Institute for Global Development, Director of Public Affairs in
Mexicos Consumer Protection Agency, NAFTAs Migration Record: Unfulfilled Expectations? Winter
2008-2009, Peace Review, A Journal of Social Justice, 20:435-441,
http://www3.wooster.edu/spanish/Cursos/cope/ZFYS_NAFTA_1.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 12/1/13)
The integration and synchronization of the U.S. and Mexican economies were foreseen by NAFTAs designers as necessary steps along the
There was, however, one unanticipated aspect of the

integration process that resulted from NAFTA. Entirely unforeseen
was the dramatic increase in migration from Mexico to the United States that
came with the agreement. Since NAFTA went into effect in 1994, the average number of Mexican migrants entering
path to regional development.
the United States every year is estimated at roughly 500,000. The figure constitutes a sizable increase compared to the 170,000 that entered
NAFTA was
expected to significantly reduce migratory flows between Mexico and the United States.
Although this goal was not explicitly stated in the text of the agreement, government rhetoric in Mexico
and the United States clearly articulated this objective as a welcome
side effect of trade and financial liberalization. U.S. President Bill Clinton stated in several
the country every year on average during the 1980s. Contrary to the experience of the last 15 years,
press conferences on NAFTA that the trade agreement was a necessary condition to reverse the historical trend of illegal immigration from
Mexico. Similarly, Mexicos President Carlos Salinas de Gortari referred to NAFTA as a migration-reducing agreement. Thjs view relied on
classical international trade theory, which predicted that increased trade flows between Mexico and its wealthier partners, the United States
when countries with

different factor endowments remove barriers to trade, increased
trade flows become a substitute for migration . The mechanism follows the principle of
comparative advantage. First, capital intensive countries would specialize in
producing capital-intensive goods, whereas labor intensive countries
would create jobs and raise wages as a result of technology transfer and competition. Finally, these
improvements would raise living standards and reduce migration flows from the labor-intensive
countries to the capital-intensive countries. In the short run, migration between Mexico and the United
States was expected to increase. During an initial period of adjustment, jobs would be lost in the dislocated
industries, and there would be a lag between the loss of jobs and the accommodation of workers in other
economic activities. In the meantime, the hardest hit sectors of the population would seek employment in the United
and Canada, would result in a reduction in labor migration from Mexico. The theory suggests that,
States or Canada. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in Mexicos property rights regime that puts an end to the collective ownership of land
known as ejidos were expected to contribute to a short-term increase in the numbr of migrants to the United States.

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**IMPACT STUFF**

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Manufacturing IL
NAFTA kills manufacturing sector
Public Citizen 13 (Public Citizen, nonprofit advocacy group with offices in
Washington and Austin, NAFTAs Broken Promises 1994-2013: Outcomes of
the North American Free Trade Agreement, 2013,
http://www.citizen.org/documents/NAFTAs-Broken-Promises.pdf)
Devastation of American manufacturing erodes the tax base that
supports U.S. schools, hospitals and essential infrastructure. Since
NAFTAs implementation, over 60,000 manufacturing facilities have
closed.41 The loss of these firms and erosion of manufacturing employment means there are fewer
firms and well-paid workers to contribute to local tax bases. Research shows that a robust manufacturing
With the loss of

manufacturing, tax revenue that could have expanded social
services or funded local infrastructure projects has declined,43 while
displaced workers turn to welfare programs that are evershrinking.44 This has resulted in the virtual collapse of some local governments in areas hardest
hit.45 Building trade and construction workers have also been directly
impacted both by shrinking government funds for infrastructure
projects and declining demand for maintenance of manufacturing
firms.
base contributes to a wider local tax base and offering of social services.42
<insert impact>

File Title
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Keerthi Gondi
manufacturing uniqueness
Manufacturing high now.
Reuters 11/1 (11/1/13, Manufacturing sector expands more than
expected in October, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101162810, Keerthi, Acc
11/10/13)
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in 2
years last month, an industry report showed Friday, but the pace of hiring slowed
from September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national
factory activity rose to 56.4 in October its best showing since April
2011 from 56.2 the prior month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Growth
edged up despite the partial government shutdown during the first 16 days of the month. October
was the fifth-consecutive month of quicker growth in the goodsproducing sector since it contracted in May. The forward-looking new orders index edged up to
60.6 from 60.5, but the employment index slipped to 53.2 after hitting a 15-month high of 55.4 in
September. Production eased to 60.8 from 62.6.

File Title
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manufacturing war impact

Manufacturing deters all war and solves the escalation of conflict
OHanlon 11 (Mackenzie Eaglen, American Enterprise Institute Rebecca
Grant, IRIS Research Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting Michael
O'Hanlon, The Brookings Institution Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution
Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting Barry Watts, Center for Strategic
and Budgetary Assessments The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve
It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy January 2012, pg online @
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/26%20defen
se%20industrial%20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon)
The current wave of defense cuts is also different than past defense
budget reductions in their likely industrial impact , as the U.S. defense
industrial base is in a much different place than it was in the past.
Defense industrial issues are too often viewed through the lens of jobs and pet projects to protect in
congressional districts. But the overall health of the firms that supply the technologies our armed forces
Qualitative superiority in weaponry

and other key military technology has become an essential element
of American military power in the modern eranot only for winning
wars but for deterring them. That requires world-class scientific and
manufacturing capabilitieswhich in turn can also generate civilian
and military export opportunities for the United States in a
globalized marketplace.
utilize does have national security resonance.

File Title
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Keerthi Gondi
manufacturing ag impact
Manufacturing industry is key to agricultural technology advances and precision
farming
Lind and Freeman 12 (Michael Lind, policy director of New Americas
Economic Growth Program and a co-founder of the New America Foundation,

Joshua Freedman, program associate in New Americas Economic Growth
Program, Value Added: Americas Manufacturing Future, New America
Foundation, April 2012,
http://growth.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/Lind,
%20Michael%20and%20Freedman,%20Joshua%20-%20NAF%20-%20Value
%20Added%20America%27s%20Manufacturing%20Future.pdf)
Advanced manufacturing is not limited to new, emerging sectors;
even manufacturing tied to one of the most traditional industries,
agriculture, has heavily incorporated technology into its new
products. The need for more accurate and efficient farming, as well
as the rise of precision agriculturethe utilization of technology
to accommodate variations within a fieldhas changed the agricultural
manufacturing industry.i Agricultural equipment manufacturers are now creating
products that are a far cry from the farm equipment of earlier
generations. Replete with LED alerts, touchscreen monitors, and GPS-enabled systems, a modern
farm equipment brochure looks like a consumer electronics guide.
Agriculture technology advances solve extinction

Trewavas, 2000 (Anthony, Professor at the Institute of Cell and Molecular
Biology at the University of Edinburgh, GM IS the Best Option We Have,
http://www.agbioworld.org/biotech-info/articles/biotech-art/best_option.html)
In 535A.D. a volcano near the present Krakatoa exploded with the force of 200 million
Hiroshima A bombs. The dense cloud of dust so reduced the intensity of the sun that for at least two years thereafter,
The
population survived by hunting a rapidly vanishing population of
edible animals. The after-effects continued for a decade and human history was changed irreversibly. But the
planet recovered. Such examples of benign nature's wisdom , in full flood as it
were, dwarf and make miniscule the tiny modifications we make upon our
summer turned to winter and crops here and elsewhere in the Northern hemisphere failed completely.
environment. There are apparently 100 such volcanoes round the world that could at any time unleash forces as great.
And even smaller volcanic explosions change our climate and can easily
threaten the security of our food supply. Our hold on this planet is
tenuous. In the present day an equivalent 535 A.D. explosion would
destroy much of our civilisation. Only those with agricultural
technology sufficiently advanced would have a chance at survival .
Colliding asteroids are another problem that requires us to be forward-looking accepting that technological advance may
be the only buffer between us and annihilation.
Efficient and precise agriculture solves extinctionaccesses every major impact

Lugar, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2011 (March 18,
2011, Richard G. Lugar, a US Senator from Indiana, is Chairman of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, and a member and former chairman of the
Senate Agriculture Committee. Plant Power)
In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East,
burgeoning nuclear threats and other crises, it is easy to lose sight of the

File Title
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long-range challenges. But we do so at our peril. One of the most daunting of

them is meeting the worlds need for food and energy in this century. At
stake is not only preventing starvation and saving the environment,
but also world peace and security. History tells us that states may go to war
over access to resources, and that poverty and famine have often
bred fanaticism and terrorism. Working to feed the world will
minimize factors that contribute to global instability and the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction . With the world
population expected to grow from 6 billion people today to 9 billion
by mid-century, the demand for affordable food will increase well
beyond current international production levels. People in rapidly developing nations
will have the means greatly to improve their standard of living and caloric intake. Inevitably, that means eating more
meat. This will raise demand for feed grain at the same time that the growing world population will need vastly more basic
food to eat. Complicating a solution to this problem is a dynamic that must be better understood in the West: developing
countries often use limited arable land to expand cities to house their growing populations. As good land disappears,
people destroy timber resources and even rainforests as they try to create more arable land to feed themselves. The
long-term environmental consequences could be disastrous for the

entire globe. Productivity revolution To meet the expected demand for food over the next 50 years, we in the
United States will have to grow roughly three times more food on the land we have. Thats a tall order. My farm in Marion
County, Indiana, for example, yields on average 8.3 to 8.6 tonnes of corn per hectare typical for a farm in central
Indiana. To triple our production by 2050, we will have to produce an annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare. Can we
possibly boost output that much? Well, its been done before. Advances in the use of fertilizer and water, improved
machinery and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold increase in yields since 1935 on our farm back
then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3 tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen similar increases. But of course there
is no guarantee that we can achieve those results again. Given the urgency of expanding food production to meet world
demand, we must invest much more in scientific research and target that money toward projects that promise to have
significant national and global impact. For the United States, that will mean a major shift in the way we conduct and fund
The
United States can take a leading position in a productivity
revolution. And our success at increasing food production may play a
decisive humanitarian role in the survival of billions of people and
the health of our planet.
agricultural science. Fundamental research will generate the innovations that will be necessary to feed the world.

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Manufacturing nanotech impact

Restoring the manufacturing base reinstates US nanotech leadership --- refines and
improves both product and process
Jacobson 05 (Ken Jacobson, Manufacturing and Technology News, Lack of
Manufacturing Base Imperils U.S. Lead in Nanotechnology Vol. 12, No. 13,
July 8, 2005, http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/05/0708/art1.html)
But the three did agree in their fundamental assessment of the
present: All view the United States as the world leader in
nanotechnology up to now, and all regard its lead as imperiled . Kvamme,
citing an estimate contained in the review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) published by PCAST in May, testified that the $1 billion in federal
funding for nano R&D in Fiscal Year 2005 "is roughly one-quarter of the current
global investment by all nations." He placed the U.S.'s overall annual nano R&D effort at $3 billion, "one-third of the
approximately $9 billion in total worldwide spending by the public and private sectors." Additionally, the U.S. "leads in the
number of start-up companies based on nanotechnology and in
research output as measured by patents and publications ." Still, Kvamme said,
the U.S. is coming under "increased competitive pressure," as "other
countries are aggressively chasing [its] leadership position," both by beefing up
coordinated national programs and by focusing investments on "areas of existing national economic strength." The U.S. lead in patents and publications, he added,
"appears to be slipping." According to Nordan, whose company's figures were cited repeatedly by PCAST it its report, even the U.S.'s current R&D spending lead is open
to question. On the basis of purchasing-power parity, 2004 government spending on nano R&D in the U.S., at $5.42 per capita, came in below South Korea's $5.62, Japan's
$6.30, and Taiwan's $9.40. "The $130 million in estimated government spending on nanotech last year in China equaled $611 million at purchasing-power parity, or 38
percent of U.S. expenditure," Nordan noted. That nations like China are free to direct "initial capital investments toward the instrumentation needed for nanotechnology
research, without having to maintain technology infrastructures and skill sets that were cutting-edge 20 years ago" could add to the comparative bang they're getting for
their bucks. A figure cited in Murdock's testimony seems to corroborate this assumption. In the period January to August 2004, China led the world in research papers on
nanotechnology, presenting 14 percent more than the U.S. And while the U.S., according to the NanoBusiness Alliance's database, accounted for 613 of 1,175 companies
worldwide that are "involved with nanotechnology," Murdock said that "if one is to believe the announcements made at the ChinaNano2005 trade expo," China now has
Keeping the edge in R&D is critical to Nordan because

he believes that, for the U.S., the economic advantage to be derived
from nanotechnology begins and ends with intellectual property (IP). He
almost 800 such companies.
pointed to Japan's Frontier Carbon, whose 40-ton-per-year capacity for the manufacture of fullerenes, based on a process licensed from an MIT spinoff company, surpasses
It's unlikely," he told the subcommittee, "that you're going to

find U.S.-based companies investing that far ahead of demand in
order to attain manufacturing dominance" in basic nanomaterials. The U.S. cannot maintain an edge, he
last year's total world demand by more than 25 times. "
argued, by offering "low labor costs or tax advantages for capital investment in manufacturing facilities" in an attempt to "go toe-to-toe against...countries that have more
runway to go down in terms of economic development based on nanotechnology." Nor, he said, can it prevent the transfer overseas of research, whether "through a patent
process [or] to a country that perhaps does not have the respect for intellectual property rights that Western European and U.S. nations hold." Instead, the U.S. should
seek "to have an unremitting, relentless flow of novel ideas that take time and keep us continually two, three, five years ahead of what other countries can attain," Nordan
maintained. "The achievement that we can drive toward is to always be ahead and always be first to market with those novel ideas, and through that I think we'll attain
keeping manufacturing in
the U.S. is critical to the nation's economic health. "I believe that we
need to endeavor to be more than just IP companies," he stated, in view of a projection by
economic rewards." Murdock, while concurring on the importance of enforcing IP laws, countered that
Nordan's firm that "new, emerging nanotechnology applications will...becom[e] incorporated into 15 percent of global manufacturing output totaling $2.6 trillion in 2014."
"If you look at the total value associated with any product, most of the value tends to accrue to those that are closest to the customer -- that, in fact, make it. And while IP
may have higher margins, ultimately there is a big value pool out there, and we need to ensure that we're taking steps to capture the value. "Furthermore, IP is not the
only source of intellectual capital," Murdock added. "There is know-how. And that is the reason for the importance of manufacturing. Ultimately, when we move from the
knowledge or the proof of principle into making the stuff, we develop process knowledge. That process knowledge helps us to refine and improve both the quality of the
product and the throughput, and it increases the marginal productivity of the labor. That is what enables us to pay high wages and keep jobs here. "So while we need to
we also need to take steps to do what we can

to ensure that we do commercialize and manufacture the set of
technologies that we can here."
be realistic and understand that this is a global economy,
Nanotech leadership solves nanotech mistakes and inter-state nanotech conflicts

solves extinction.
Navrozov 04 (Lev Navrozov, Special to World Tribune, Winner of the Albert
Einstein Prize for Outstanding Intellectual Achievements, The Center for
Responsible Nanotechnology Plans Ahead,
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2004/lev2_06.html)

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Similarly, two countries can develop molecular nano assemblers: the United
States and China. The latter launched in 1986 Project 863, a Manhattan
Project for the development of post-nuclear superweapons in seven fields,
and, at the close of the 20th century and beginning of the 21st, molecular
nano technology became the eighth field.
The United States has not launched a Manhattan Project for the
development of any post-nuclear superweapons, and certainly not, of
molecular nanoweapons. In 1969 President Nixon announced the U.S. termination of development of
post-nuclear weapons, and it has been terminated, according to my research, not my benevolence. Just as Lloyd George
in England up to 1939 dreamed aloud about having a statesman as great as Hitler at the head of the British government,
United States has

no need for molecular nano assemblers and the defense against
them. In 1939 Hitler made a fatal mistake: he grabbed the rump of Czechoslovakia, and the democratic West
the Western political establishment has been in love with the dictatorship of China. So, the
woke up. Imagine the dictatorship of China suddenly invading Mexico! But the Chinese strategists regard such a war as
purely Western and old-fashioned (see Unrestricted Warfare). In a modern war (which, ironically, the United States
initiated by using nuclear weapons against Japan in 1945), a geostrategist confronts the enemy with annihilation or
we
believe that the only responsible molecular nanotechnology is for the
U.S. government to launch a nanotech Manhattan Project on the basis of the Foresight Institute, with Eric
unconditional surrender. Let us now look at the article Responsible Nanotechnology. At the CSWD, Inc.,
Drexler, the founder of nanotechnology, at the head of the Project. Incidentally, the Advisory Board of the Center for
Responsible Nanotechnology consists of distinguished, gifted individuals who might become the core of the nanotech
Manhattan Project. Great was my shock when I had read the article posted by or on behalf of CRN. Here are its eight
scenarios of the future of mankind (which the article presents out of numerical sequence): Scenario 6.
Molecular manufacturing develops quickly enough, but

mankind lives happily ever after. But what about the possibility of a
molecular nano attack, launched by the dictatorship of China on the West? What? Don't you know that
China is as peaceful as the democratic West thought Germany was peaceful in 1938? Scenario 5. The same as Scenario 6
The leading
world powers take a close look at the first three scenarios we've
described [the article describes 4 after 6 and 5], decide to avoid them at all costs,
and agree to work together to avoid geopolitical meltdown. We at CRN
believe that sovereign nations ultimately may cooperate in this way, since
the alternatives appear to suck! Again, China is no problem even if China gets molecular
but molecular manufacturing technology develops slowly, which is even better. Scenario 4.
manufacturing capability first. Surely China will not annihilate the West even in this case, but will work together. What
if the United States gets molecular

manufacturing capability first, and certain elements inside the government intend to oppress the
rest of the world with it, we can hope that other powerful entities in the U.S.
will be more sensible and influential. The above suggests that the form of government in the
about the United States? Even [!]
United States is much more dangerous for the world than that in China, the largest dictatorship in world history. Inside the
U.S. government certain elements may intend to oppress the rest of the world. Not inside the government of China,
which presumably consists of American liberal Democrats and peaceniks only. Scenario 3. Two or more competent
nations develop molecular manufacturing capability at about the same time. Fearing the potential military advantage this
could provide for their adversary, they each begin rapid and massive development of hideously powerful new weaponry.
The resulting arms race is almost certain to be highly unstable, for several reasons. This scenario can be considered an
existential risk for the human race. Can you imagine the dictators of China, hearing of existential risk for the human
race? They will develop a severe depression, and the American doctors talking depression on TV will have to treat
them. Scenario 2 A major Asian nation achieves robust molecular nanotechnology manufacturing ahead of anyone else,
and as a result the U.S. becomes something of a backwater. As I was reading this, I could imagine only China in this role.
I guessed right! But never mind, for China (if it's them) could turn increasingly open/democratic as they continue to
develop economically and scientifically... isn't it? Of course! Remember how increasingly open/democratic Germany
turned as it developed economically and scientifically after 1933? If one knows nothing about a foreign country, he or she
can well daydream about its being open/democratic. Remember how President Roosevelt's spouse and his ambassador in
The United States

of America is the first to develop molecular technology
manufacturing, and as a result can rule the world. Surely this is
better than the nano annihilation.
Moscow admired and extolled openness and democracy in Stalin's Russia? Scenario 1.

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Manufacturing trade/econ impact

Manufacturing is key to econ growth and trade
Rynn 12 (Jon Rynn, Ph.D. in Political Science and is a Visiting Scholar at the
CUNY Institute for Urban Systems, Six Reasons Manufacturing is Central to
the Economy, http://rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/six-reasonsmanufacturing-central-economy, Keerthi, Acc 4/23/13)
Paul Krugman recently argued that manufacturing is one of the bright spots of a
generally disappointing recovery, and there are signs preliminary, but hopeful, nonetheless
that a sustained comeback may be under way. He points out that the gap between what we sell and what we buy has
been improving. This must be set against a background of a manufacturing decline in the United States of historic
dimensions; even without adjusting for inflation, the trade deficit in goods for the United States between 2000 and 2010
was 7 trillion dollars. A turnaround in the attention of more perceptive economists and a turnaround in manufacturing may
be in the works. But before that, the crucial question is:
Why is manufacturing so important?
1. Manufacturing has been the path to development It has been

the strategic achievement of rich nations over the last several
hundred years to create a high-quality manufacturing sector in order to
develop national wealth and power, as Erik Reinert shows in his book How Rich Countries Got Richand Why Poor
Countries Stay Poor. From the rise of England in the 19th century, to the rise of the US, Germany, Japan and the USSR in
the 20th, to the newly industrializing countries like Korea, Taiwan, and now China, manufacturing has been the key to
2. Manufacturing is the foundation of global Great Power

The most powerful nations in the world the Great Powers are
those that control the bulk of the global production of
manufacturing technology. That is, it isnt enough simply to have factories and produce more goods,
you have to know how to make the machinery that makes the goods. The key to power, then, is to
make the means of production. As the machinery industries go, so goes Great Power. My own
prosperity.
research shows that about 80% of the worlds production of factory machinery has been controlled by what we would
consider the Great Powers. Until the 1950s, the US had produced about 50%; we now produce less than Chinas 16%.
3. Manufacturing is the most important cause of economic growth

growth of manufacturing machinery output, and technological
improvements in that machinery, are the main drivers of economic
growth. No machinery industries, no sustained, long-term economic
growth. Just consider the explosion of the Internet, iPhones, and the like all made possible by a
small subset of production machinery called semiconductor-making equipment (SME), which
The
itself is dependent on other forms of production machinery, such as the machine tools that grind the lenses they use or
the alloys of metal the metal-making industries output. These technologies reproduce themselves, as when an SME makes
the semiconductors that then go to make more SMEs, or when a machine tool makes the metal components that not only
go into other pieces of machinery, such as cars, but are used to produce yet more machine tools. The technological and
machine tools and SMEs affect each other as well, leading to the
explosive economic growth of the last two hundred years. Sign up for
weekly ND20 highlights, mind-blowing stats, and event alerts. 4. Global trade is based on
productive potential of
goods, not services A country cant trade services for most of its goods. According to the
WTO, 80% of world trade among regions is merchandise trade that is,
only 20% of world trade is in services. This closely matches the trade percentages that even the US, allegedly becoming
post-industrial, achieves. If in the extreme case an economy was composed only of services, then it would be very poor,
because it couldnt trade for goods; its currency would be worth very little. The dollar is also vulnerable in the long-term.
A post-industrial economy is really a pre-industrial economy

that is, poor. 5. Services are dependent on manufactured goods
Services are mostly the act of using manufactured goods. You cant
export the experience of using something. Retail and wholesale, which make up about
11% of the economy, are the act of buying and selling manufactured goods. The same goes for real estate, another 13%,
which is the act of buying and selling a real or physical asset, a building. Even health, which makes up about 8% of the
economy, is the act of using medical equipment and drugs (all figures from 2010, value-added). Finance involves the
redirection of surplus resources that the nonfinancial sector of the economy produces, which means that indirectly, even

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finance is dependent on manufacturing. The cycle of rise and decline usually runs like this: some clever society figures out
how to take advantage of the current technologies of production, thus generating huge surpluses, which either the
financial forces, the very wealthy, or the military then appropriate for their own wealth and power; they kill the goose that
is laying the golden eggs. To sum up: the health of the economy is critically dependent on the health of the manufacturing
6. Manufacturing creates jobs Most jobs, directly or indirectly,

depend on manufacturing and reviving the sector could provide
tens of millions of new jobs, eradicating the Great Recession. In 2005, the Japanese manufacturing
sector.
sector was 20.2% of its economy, in Germany it was 23.2%, and in the US manufacturing accounted for 13.4%, according
to the the OECD. Using 2005 figures, if the US had the same percentage as Japan, we would have 7 million more highquality, long-term, well paying jobs. If we were equal with Germany, we would have 10 million more. And according to the
Economic Policy Institute, each manufacturing job supports almost three other jobs in the economy. That makes sense,
considering the other five reasons that manufacturing is central to the economy. Thus, there are six solid reasons that we
need to rebuild the manufacturing sector of the United States. Its time for the United States to wake up before its too
late and rebuild the foundation of a strong, prosperous, middle class economy.
Economic decline increases the risk of warthere is strong statistical support.



particularly for difficult [end page 213] to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood



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& Hess, 2002. p. 89)
in
the likelihood of
terrorism
which has the



more attention.
economic crises. As
Trade interdependence is the biggest disincentive for war- maintaining globalization

solves all their impacts.
Griswold 2005 (Daniel, president of the National Association of Foreign
Trade Zones, former director of the Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy
Studies at the Cato Institute, BA in Journalism from Univ. of WisconsinMadison, Diploma in Economics, MA in Politics of the World Economy from the
London School of Economics, 12/28/13, Peace on Earth? Try Free Trade
among Men, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5344, Accessed
11/28/12, Keerthi)
As one little-noticed headline on an Associated Press story recently reported, "War declining worldwide,
the number of
armed conflicts around the world has been in decline for the past
half-century. In just the past 15 years, ongoing conflicts have
dropped from 33 to 18, with all of them now civil conflicts within
countries. As 2005 draws to an end, no two nations in the world are at war with each other. The
death toll from war has also been falling. According to the AP story, " The number killed in
battle has fallen to its lowest point in the post-World War II period,
dipping below 20,000 a year by one measure. Peacemaking missions, meanwhile,
studies say." According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute,
are growing in number." Those estimates are down sharply from annual tolls ranging from 40,000 to
100,000 in the 1990s, and from a peak of 700,000 in 1951 during the Korean War. Many causes lie behind
the good news -- the end of the Cold War and the spread of democracy, among them -- but
expanding trade and globalization appear to be playing a major role .

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Far from stoking a "World on Fire," as one misguided American author has argued, growing commercial ties
First,
trade and globalization have reinforced the trend toward democracy,
and democracies don't pick fights with each other. Freedom to trade nurtures
between nations have had a dampening effect on armed conflict and war, for three main reasons.
democracy by expanding the middle class in globalizing countries and equipping people with tools of
With trade comes more

travel, more contact with people in other countries, and more
exposure to new ideas. Thanks in part to globalization, almost two thirds of the world's
countries today are democracies -- a record high. Second, as national economies
become more integrated with each other, those nations have more
to lose should war break out. War in a globalized world not only
means human casualties and bigger government, but also ruptured
trade and investment ties that impose lasting damage on the
economy. In short, globalization has dramatically raised the economic cost of war. Third,
globalization allows nations to acquire wealth through production
and trade rather than conquest of territory and resources.
Increasingly, wealth is measured in terms of intellectual property,
financial assets, and human capital. Those are assets that cannot be
seized by armies. If people need resources outside their national borders, say oil or timber or farm
communication such as cell phones, satellite TV, and the Internet.
products, they can acquire them peacefully by trading away what they can produce best at home.

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Manufacturing usaf impact

Manufacturing is key to aerospace industry.
Platzer 9 (Michaela D., Specialist in Industrial Organization and Business at
Congressional Research Service, December 3 2009, U.S. Aerospace
Manufacturing: Industry Overview and Prospects,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40967.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 4/25/13)
Aircraft and automobile manufacturing are considered by many to be the
technological backbones of the U.S. manufacturing base. As the Obama
Administration and Congress debate how to strengthen American manufacturing, aerospace is likely to receive
considerable attention. Like other manufacturing industries, the worldwide recession has
affected aerospace manufacturing, with both the defense and
commercial sides of the industry facing difficult business conditions
for the near and medium term. This report primarily provides a snapshot of the U.S. commercial (non-defense, non-space) aerospace
The large commercial

jet aviation market is a duopoly shared by the U.S. aircraft
manufacturer Boeing and the European aircraft maker Airbus, with fierce competition between these two companies. The
manufacturing industry and a discussion of major trends affecting the future of this industry.
regional jet market is dominated by two non-U.S. headquartered manufacturers, Brazils Embraer and Canadas Bombardier, both of which
utilize a high level of U.S.-produced content in their products. The general aviation market includes companies such as Cessna and
manufacturing is an important part of
Gulfstream. Aerospace
the U.S. manufacturing base. It
comprised 2.8% of the nations manufacturing workforce in 2008 and employed over 500,000 Americans in high- skilled and high-wage jobs.
the nations aerospace industry jobs are located in six states: Washington state,
Several smaller aerospace manufacturing
clusters are found in states such as Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Missouri, and Alabama. Other aerospace
centers are beginning to emerge in southern states, such as South Carolina, where
Boeing is now building a second production line to produce the 787 Dreamliner. Aerospace manufacturing
contributes significantly to the U.S. economy, with total sales by aerospace
manufacturers (including defense and space) comprising 1.4% of the U.S. gross domestic product in 2008.
More than half (61%) of
California, Texas, Kansas, Connecticut, and Arizona.
Strong aerospace industry key to airpower

Lexington Institute 13 [Public policy think tank, America Is A
Superpower Because It Is An Air Power, 1/24, http://www.defenseaerospace.com/article-view/release/142016/air-power-makes-america-asuperpower.html]
Finally, the U.S. is the dominant air power in the world because of its
aerospace industrial base. Whether it is designing and producing
fifth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35, providing an
advanced tanker like the new KC-46 or inventing high-flying
unmanned aerial systems like the Global Hawk, the U.S. aerospace
industry continues to set the bar . In addition, the private and public
parts of the aerospace industrial base, often working together based on
collaborative arrangements such as performance-based logistics contracts, is able to move
aircraft, weapons and systems through the nationwide system of
depots, Air Logistics Centers and other facilities at a rate unmatched by any other nation.
The ability to rapidly repair or overhaul aircraft is itself a force
multiplier , providing more aircraft on the flight line to support the
warfighters.

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Air Force is key to deterrence - decline causes global nuclear war and conflict
Thompson, March 2013--Loren B., PhD, Intelligence, Surveillance, and
Reconnaissance, Lexington Institute,

www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Defense/AirDominan
ce-ISR.pdf
The U nited S tates has enjoyed global air dominance for many decades. No
U.S. soldier on the ground has been killed by hostile aircraft since the Korean War, and no U.S. pilot in the air has been killed by hostile aircraft
since the Vietnam War.1 U.S. air dominance has been preserved by pouring vast amounts of money into technology and training, far
surpassing the efforts of other nations. The scale of this funding was driven by an awareness of how crucial air dominance was to other facets
since the Cold

War ended, modernization efforts in the Air Force and Navy -- the main providers of U.S.
air dominance -- have lagged. Plans to replace Air Force bombers, tankers and reconnaissance aircraft were canceled or delayed,
of warfighting, plus the fear that a few mis-steps might result in America losing its edge in the air. However,
while programs to recapitalize tactical air fleets in both services were repeatedly restructured. In addition, efforts to develop next- generation
intelligence, navigation, communication, missile-warning and weather satellites have fallen far behind schedule. As a result, the joint inventory
of fixed-wing aircraft and orbital systems enabling air dominance has aged considerably. Unmanned aircraft are an exception to this trend, but
While modernization of airborne and orbital assets was

lagging, the global threat environment changed. China emerged as the
world's second-largest economy, pursuing regional security objectives with increasing vigor. Rogue states of varying
stripe developed w eapons of m ass d estruction and the means to deliver them.
Non-state actors with extreme agendas were empowered by the
proliferation of new military tools and techniques. And the focus of global security shifted from
their utility in contested airspace is unproven.
technologies in which only a few countries could play, such as long-range ballistic missiles, to technologies in which many players could
If recent trends persist, the U nited S tates will gradually lose

its claim to global air dominance. Marked 17:44 That claim is already being challenged in the Western
Pacific, where a scattered and aging U.S. air fleet is faced with growing Chinese investment in new aircraft and air defenses. When
China's increasing military might is combined with its intrinsic geographical advantages in the region,
the possibility arises that America may cease to be the dominant air
power in what has become the industrial heartland of the new global
economy.2 Similar outcomes could occur in other regions, because
with recent advances in surface-to-air missiles, multi-spectral
sensors, tactical networks and other military systems, it is no longer
necessary to match every aspect of U.S. air power in order to defeat
it. With all that in mind, the Lexington Institute embarked on a year-long inquiry into the requirements for maintaining U.S. global air
develop deep expertise.
dominance. The inquiry focused on the four core components of air dominance: intelligence, surveillance & reconnaissance; air superiority;
long- range strike; and mobility. In each area, the inquiry sought to understand the current force structure and modernization programs being
funded, and then identify gaps in future capabilities that need to be addressed. It also examined alternative approaches to satisfying
operational requirements, and explored how those alternatives might be implemented in varying fiscal circumstances. A series of working
The present study is

about intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance -- typically referred to among airpower practitioners as "ISR." Timely, precise insights into enemy
actions and intentions have always been valuable in warfare, but
with the coming of the information revolution they have assumed
overriding importance because there are now so many options for
collecting, analyzing and exploiting relevant data. Air power provides
a unique perspective on modern warfare, because there are some features of military activity that
can only be captured from above. Airborne ISR also generates information essential
groups and studies were conducted in support of the final report, to be issued in Spring of 2013.
to the deterrence of aggression, the enforcement of arms-control

treaties , and the prevention of nuclear proliferation . In a world of rapidly changing
technology and diverse threats,
constant vigilance is a necessary cost of preserving
the peace, and providing that vigilance is an overarching mission of

the nation's air forces.

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Drug Trafficking IL
NAFTA helps facilitate drug trafficking and crime
Peele 12
serves in the Bureau of Diplomatic Security within the Department of State. He is a

Rotary Peace Fellow and holds a masters in International Relations from the Universidad del Salvador in
Buenos Aires, Argentina (Justin, A Call for Caution: The (Side) Effect of Mexicos Entry into the Trans-Pacific
Partnership, Small Wars Journal, 7/3/12, Google Scholar)
In 1990 Mexico approached the U.S. with the idea of forming a free trade agreement between their
countries, an endeavor which would eventually culminate in the creation of NAFTA several years later.
The then Mexican President Salinas de Gortari had several motivations in pursuing such a pact with the
United States, namely to increase economic growth by attracting foreign direct investment, to boost
exports, the creation of industrial jobs and giving the Mexican economy an overall growth stimulus.
Overall, the increased foreign direct investment would help create jobs, increase wage rates, and reduce
However, as an unintended consequence, the same
policies which were designed to encourage business and the integration of
U.S.-Mexican economies aided significantly in the expansion of illicit markets,
primarily the illicit drug sector. NAFTA helped create not only the three most
prominent drug trafficking organizations in Mexico, but some of the
countrys most notorious drug lords, criminals worth billions of dollars. As
poverty within the country (p. 1).
the majority of maquiladoras (factories operating in a free trade zone) were located along the U.S.-
the focus of Mexican drug-traffickers shifted

from the Pacific coast to the border states of Baja California, Chihuahua, and
Tamaulipas. In time, these three states on the U.S.-Mexican border would
become the home of the Tijuana Cartel, Juarez Cartel, and Gulf Cartel
respectively. As one author describes the time period, Mexican drug trafficking organizations
consolidated their power amid the gold rush of globalization (p. 75). According
Mexican border, it is no coincidence that
to Eduardo Valle, who resigned as personal advisor to the Mexican attorney general in 1994, the most
successful drug capos had become driving forces, pillars even, of our economic growth (p. 129). In
response to the doubling of U.S. imports from Mexico between 1993, the year before NAFTA took effect,
and 1997, Phil Jordan, the former Director of the DEAs El Paso Intelligence Center remarked that
NAFTA served as a godsend to drug trafficking , the best thing that happened to
product distribution since Nike signed up Michael Jordan (p. 3). Based on this growth stimulus of the
free trade agreement, it shouldnt come as a surprise that the leader of the Sinaloa Federation, Joaqun
El Chapo Guzman currently appears for the fourth consecutive year on Forbes Magazines list of top
billionaires. Not only was he recently named The worlds most powerful drug trafficker by the U.S.
Department of the Treasury, he has been named repeatedly as one of Forbes Magazines Worlds Most
Powerful People throughout the years. His current location on the list places him just a few spots down
It is unlikely that so much wealth and

power could be amassed without the myriad of unintended consequences
stemming from NAFTA. In a study conducted to understand the impact of Mexicos market
reforms on the illicit drug trade, a number of shocking conclusions were drawn, namely that the
increased trade flows between ColombiaMexico-U.S., brought about by trade
liberalization, provided the necessary cover for increased drug trafficking.
The privatization of companies and services was also utilized by cartels for
money laundering and narco-investment. The deregulation of the trucking
industry inadvertently aided in the transport of both legal and illegal goods,
thus increasing transport of large drug shipments within Mexico and into the
U.S. market. It was found that foreign debt repayments also provided the
incentives for a government to tolerate a heavy influx of drug revenues. As
public sector salaries were lowered, the incentives for officials to accept
bribes increased, thus furthering corruption within the state. Financial
liberalization also increased money laundering opportunities for drug
cartels, and capital markets investment created a narco-sector. The
volume of legitimate cross-border trade increased significantly, thereby
from President Bill Clinton and the Dalai Lama.

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providing a cover for increased illegitimate trade. Even agricultural reform

brought about the unintended consequences of families resorting to drug
crop cultivation as a household survival strategy. This would in turn increase
narco-investment in rural areas of cultivation (p. 137). It is apparent that there was a
significant amount of collateral damage created by governmental policies
designed to increase the overall wealth of the country and the standard of
living of the average Mexican citizen. There is an average estimate of 210 million illegal
drug users throughout the world . This illicit market is currently valued in the
hundreds of billions of dollars, a sum which far exceeds the size of the
legitimate economy of some countries plagued by drug trafficking (p. 8). With
the Drug Trafficking Organizations having graduated in recent years to Transnational Criminal
Organizations, their portfolio of illicit businesses and practices has grown exponentially. Edgardo
a leading Mexican academic and advisor to several U.S. government

agencies, has identified twenty-two illicit markets in which these TCOs
operate. These same illicit markets could be inadvertently expanded upon if given the opportunity by
Buscaglia,
the new TPP, much like NAFTA of the 1990s.
Increased Drug Trafficking leads to Narco-Terror

Yager, 9 (Jordy, Border lawmakers fear drug-terrorism link, The Hill,
3/7/09, http://thehill.com/homenews/news/18629-border-lawmakers-feardrug-terrorism-link)
Members of Congress are raising the alarm that war-like conditions on the Mexican border
could lead to Mexican drug cartels helping terrorists attack the U.S.
When you havegangs and they have loose ties with al Qaeda and
then you have Iran not too far away from building a nuclear
capability, nuclear terrorism may not be far off, said Rep. Trent Franks (R- Ariz.), a
member of the House Armed Services committee. The Mexican drug cartels violence accounted for more than 6,000
deaths last year, and in recent months it has begun spilling over into the districts of lawmakers from the southwest region,
even as far north as Phoenix, Ariz. -- which has become, Franks noted, the kidnap capital of the U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar
while the situation is bad, it could easily

get worse. The goal of the cartels is to make money, said Cuellar, who sits on
the House Homeland Security committee. If they can smuggle in drugs and human
cargo, then certainly they can smuggle other things in, other devices
to cause us harm. We have not heard of any associations, but is there the possibility? Ill be the first to
(D-Texas), whose district borders Mexico, said that
say, yeah. They have the routes, they can very easily smuggle in other things. If I was a bad guy in another country, I
would go into Central America because the U.S. is not paying the proper attention.
Violence reached
new levels last week when the mayor of Juarez, a Mexican city with 1.6 million people that serves as a
major transit point for drug smugglers, moved his family to El Paso, Texas, after receiving threats against his and their
lives. The move corresponded with the resignation of the citys police chief after a drug cartel promised to kill a police
officer every 48 hours if he did not step down. The citys police director of operations, a police officer and a prison guard
were killed by the cartels in days prior. That was a mistake in my judgment, Franks said of the chiefs resignation. The
federal government should have come in and said listen, were going to put a Marine division there to help you out if
narco-terrorists are not going to tell America who to

elect and who resigns.
thats whats necessary, but
That results in WMD terrorist attacks

Anderson, 8 (10/8/2008, Curt, AP, US officials fear terrorist links with drug lords,
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-10-08-805146709_x.htm)
There is real danger that Islamic extremist groups such as alQaida and Hezbollah could form alliances with wealthy and powerful
Latin American drug lords to launch new terrorist attacks, U.S. officials said
MIAMI
Wednesday.
Extremist group operatives have already been identified in several

Latin American countries, mostly involved in fundraising and finding

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logistical support. But Charles Allen, chief of intelligence analysis at the Homeland Security
Department, said they could use well-established smuggling routes and
drug profits to bring people or even weapons of mass destruction to
the U.S.
"The presence of these people in the region leaves open the
possibility that they will attempt to attack the U nited S tates," said
Allen, a veteran CIA analyst. "The threats in this hemisphere are real.
We cannot ignore them."
Added U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration operations chief Michael Braun: "It is not in our interest to let
that potpourri of scum to come together."
Nuclear terrorism causes nuclear retaliation- extinction

Ayson 10, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for
Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, 2010

(Robert, After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to
Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
But these two nuclear worldsa non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic
interstate nuclear exchangeare not necessarily separable. It is just possible that some
sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act of nuclear terrorism, could
precipitate a chain of events leading to a massive exchange of nuclear
weapons between two or more of the states that possess them. In this context, todays
and tomorrows terrorist groups might assume the place allotted during the early Cold
War years to new state possessors of small nuclear arsenals who were seen as
raising the risks of a catalytic nuclear war between the superpowers
started by third parties. These risks were considered in the late 1950s and early 1960s as concerns grew about nuclear proliferation, the socalled n+1 problem. It may require a considerable amount of imagination to depict an especially plausible situation where an act of nuclear
terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear war. For example, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the United States, it
might well be wondered just how Russia and/or China could plausibly be brought into the picture, not least because they seem unlikely to be
fingered as the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. They would seem far too responsible to be involved in
possibilities, however
remote, do suggest themselves. For example, how might the United States react if it
was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear
terrorism had come from Russian stocks,40 and if for some reason Moscow denied any responsibility for
nuclear laxity? The correct attribution of that nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of
science fiction given the observation by Michael May et al. that while the debris resulting from a
nuclear explosion would be spread over a wide area in tiny fragments, its
radioactivity makes it detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a wealth of
information can be obtained from its analysis : the efficiency of the explosion, the materials used and,
most important some indication of where the nuclear material came from.41 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear
terrorism came as a complete surprise, and American officials refused to
believe that a terrorist group was fully responsible (or responsible at all) suspicion
would shift immediately to state possessors. Ruling out Western ally
countries like the United Kingdom and France, and probably Israel and India as well, authorities in Washington
would be left with a very short list consisting of North Korea, perhaps Iran if
its program continues, and possibly Pakistan. But at what stage would Russia
and China be definitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear Cluedo?
In particular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a backdrop of
existing tension in Washingtons relations with Russia and/or China , and at a time when
threats had already been traded between these major powers, would officials and political leaders not be
tempted to assume the worst? Of course, the chances of this occurring would only seem to increase if the United
supporting that sort of terrorist behavior that could just as easily threaten them as well. Some
States was already involved in some sort of limited armed conflict with Russia and/or China, or if they were confronting each other from a
distance in a proxy war, as unlikely as these developments may seem at the present time. The reverse might well apply too: should a nuclear

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terrorist attack occur in Russia or China during a period of heightened tension or even limited conflict with the United States, could Moscow
and Beijing resist the pressures that might rise domestically to consider the United States as a possible perpetrator or encourager of the
Washingtons early response to a terrorist nuclear attack on its own soil

might also raise the possibility of an unwanted (and nuclear aided)
confrontation with Russia and/or China. For example, in the noise and confusion
during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attack, the
U.S. president might be expected to place the countrys armed forces,
including its nuclear arsenal, on a higher stage of alert. In such a tense
environment, when careful planning runs up against the friction of reality, it is
just possible that Moscow and/or China might mistakenly read this as a sign
of U.S. intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear force) against them. In that
situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might grow , although it must be admitted that any
preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.
attack?

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Mexico Economy IL
Hurts Mexican economy
Aziz 7 (Nikhil Aziz, Nikhil Aziz has been Executive Director of Grassroots
International since 2005. Before joining Grassroots, Nikhil was Associate
Director at Political Research Associates, where he led a team that studied
the conservative movement and the political right in the United States,
NAFTA is Killing Tradition of Corn in Mexico, 9 November 2007,
http://www.grassrootsonline.org/news/articles/nafta-killing-tradition-cornmexico)
The urgent nature of this campaign is clear as we near January 1, 2008, when the last remaining
protections that Mexican peasants and indigenous peoples have preventing
the flooding of their country with subsidized U.S. corn and beans, the two
staples of the Mexican diet, will be erased . And so, on November 18, 2007 they will
undertake a national mobilization to call attention to this looming disaster. When the North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was signed by the United States, Canada and
Mexico in 1994 over the widespread opposition of Mexicos rural poor and
indigenous peoples, some time-limited tariff protections were put in place to
prevent U.S. exports of these two foods from deluging Mexico and causing
economic upheaval. The immediate and long term impact of such a deluge might well be much
larger than the recent floods caused by Hurricane Noel in Tabasco and Chiapas states. Since the
implementation of NAFTA, and even with these limited protections, millions of
Mexicans, particularly from rural communities, have been hard hit. More than
2 million rural people have been displaced from the countryside and forced to
emigrate to cities or to the North in search of a means for survivalan
endless supply of cheap labor for maquiladoras on the border or low wage
jobs in the United States. The stage for this massive social and economic upheaval was set even
before NAFTA when in 1982 the Mexican government began putting in place a neoliberal economic
program that aimed at the privatization and deregulation of agriculture and food systems, closely tying it
to similar moves in industry. In 1992, the Salinas government pushed through a constitutional amendment
privatizing the traditional Mexican ejido and indigenous communal landholdingsland rights that were won
after enormous peasant and indigenous struggles and sacrifices culminating in the 1910 Mexican
revolution.
Mexican growth is key to the US economy.

Marczak 4/18 - director of policy at Americas Society and Council of the Americas, senior
editor of the AS/COA policy journal, Americas Quarterly, and managing editor of AQ Online (Jason,
Immigration Reform get U.S. in on Mexicos Boom, 4/18/13; <
http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/18/opinion/marczak-immigration-the-new-mexico>)
As Congress crafts comprehensive immigration legislation, Democrats and Republicans must keep in mind
Mexico is changing rapidly, and policies crafted to reflect yesterday's Mexico will not help
the U.S. make the most of the potential of today's and tomorrow's Mexico. Mexico's future is
bright, and tapping into this growth and economic prosperity is vital
that
to U.S. competitiveness.
But the U.S. needs immigration reform to build on its huge bilateral
trade with Mexico -- more than $1 billion in goods and services each day, or $45 million an hour. Mexico's
President Enrique Pea Nieto has achieved in less than five months in office what eluded previous
administrations for six years. In the second half of 2013, he hopes to add energy to the improvements in
education and telecommunications that are sailing through under the umbrella of the Pact for Mexico
political agreement.

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Economic decline breaks down cooperation and leads to

war heg decline, falling trade, rising protectionism, and
diversionary tactics.
Royal 10 Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction Policy, US-Department
of Defense, policy advisor (Jedidiah, Economics of War and Peace: Economic,
Legal, and Political Perspectives, pg. 212-214; Print.)
The counterargument to contagion is the risk-sharing argument. It suggests that while trade and
financial linkages may spread a crisis, this creates a cushioning effect that,
overall, minimizes the effects on any individual state. In other words,
interdependence creates shock-absorbing linkages that soften a states
vulnerability to dramatic economic downturns (see, e.g., Kelemli-Ozcan, Sorensen, &
Yosha, 2003). Gallegati, Greenwald, Richiardi, and Stiglitz (2008) have made a convincing observation that
statistical modeling indicating that

risk-sharing and contagion are in fact two sides of the same coin. When
economic times are good, inter-linkages provide mechanisms for the diffusion
of individual agents that face a liquidity crisis. A leader can request a creditor defer
would appear to clarify this debate. They have provided
payment, whereas a creditor can then transfer this cost on to other agents. As such the system would
When liquidity is relatively more scarce during down times, a

sufficiently large negative shock will use those very same inter-linkages to
transmit that shock to other agents in the system. As a result, risk sharing is
beneficial only when the overall economic environment is favourable, while in
harsh times it might be better to stay alone [linkage during market
downturns] becomes socially detrimental ; not only is it that the expected number of
absorb the crisis.
defaults is higher when the economic agents are connected, but defaults become a systemic failure
(Gallegati et al., 2008. Pp.5. 16). Kose, Prasad, and Terrones (2009) considered the same question and
found only mild support for risk-sharing and only among developed, industrial economies. They found no
evidence that developing, non-industrial countries are able to share risk. The authors break relatively new
ground in suggesting why this is the case for non-industrial states: One possibility is that these countries
rely more on less stable capital such as bank loans and other forms of debt that may not allow for efficient
risk sharing. Indeed, we break up stocks of external assets and liabilities into different categories FDI,
portfolio equity, portfolio debt, etc. we find that the underlying composition of capital flows influences the
ability of developing countries to share risk. In particular, external debt appears to hinder the ability of
emerging market economies to share their consumption risk. (Kose, Prasad, & Terrones, 2009. P. 259) One
reason why interdependent states may not be well-suited to share risk is due to the fact that
interdependence leads to economic specialization and reliance on external financing. Gande, John, and
Senbet (2008) and Corsetii et al. (1999) provide conceptual and analytical links between specialization,
moral hazard, and contagion. Thus, the answer to the first question set out at the beginning of this section,
whether economic integration and economic crises are linked, seems reasonably well-established.
Substantial recent scholarship indicates a positive association between economic interdependence and
economic crises. What then about the second question? Is there a positive correlation between economic
crises and armed conflict? The impacts at an individual level and on a state level are intuitive and well-
the
instability in the global economic system contributes to social disintegration
and political conflict. Social unrest, regime changes, and even civil war have
directly resulted from the vagaries of economic integration. Less intuitive is how
documented (See, e.g., Richards & Gelleny, 2006). Rodrik (1997a, 197b), among others, argues that
periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has
contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and
defence behavior of interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic
First, on the systemic level, Pollins

(2008) advances Modelski and Thompsons (1996) work on leadership cycle
theory, finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with
the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody
transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next . As such,
exogenous shocks such as economic crises could user in a redistribution of
relative power (see also Gilpin, 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power
balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon, 1995). Alternatively,
and national levels. Several notable contributions follow.

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even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive

environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining
power (Werner, 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) shows that global
economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the
likelihood of conflict among major, medium, and small powers , although
he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions
Copelands (1996, 2000) theory of trade

expectations suggests that future expectation of trade is a significant
variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavior of
states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits
from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations.
However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for
difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for
conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain
access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for
decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers
protectionist moves by interdependent states. Third, others have considered the link
between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess
(2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external
conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn . They write, The
linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and
mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which
in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to
amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce
each other. (Blomberg & Hess., 2002, p. 89). Economic decline has also been
linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg,
Hess & Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across
borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the
popularity of a sitting government. Diversionary theory suggests that, when
facing unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting
governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military
conflicts to create a rally around the flag effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen
(1995), and Blomberg, Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that
economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated . Gelpi (1997),
Miller (1999), and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards
diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states,
due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to
being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has
provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United
States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically linked to an
remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level,
economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science
scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national levels. This
implied connection between integration, crises, and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the
economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

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Canada Tar Sands IL

NAFTA is key to the Canadian Oil Sands
Zremski 8- Staff Writer for the Buffalo News (Jerry NAFTA paves U. S.
route to energy from north, August 17, 2008, http://oilsandstruth.org/naftapaves-u-s-route-energy-north-0)
Beneath the forests of Alberta, 2,300 miles miles northwest of Buffalo, youll find the latest black gold: a
Albertas Athabasca Oil

Sands are just part of a petroleum boom that has made Canada the
worlds top supplier of oil to the United States. The boom could
make its way to Buffalo through two proposed pipelines that would
carry Canadian oil through Western New York to refineries in the
Philadelphia area. The boom also serves as a backdrop for two of
the big issues in the U. S. presidential race between Sens. Barack
Obama and John McCain: the future of the North American Free
Trade Agreement and the U. S. oil supply. NAFTA became a punching
bag during the Democratic primary battle between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton. But the treaty is one reason why the United States buys more
oil from Canada than from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United
Arab Emirates combined. The trade deal prohibits Canada from
hoarding its oil reserves in these times of tight supplies and high
prices, which might explain why Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has backed away from
his harsh rhetoric about the agreement. But he has not backed away from questioning Canadas
mining of the carbon-laden heavy crude that it gets from the oil
sands which environmentalists consider a far greater contributor
than traditional crude to global warming. Thousands of U. S. jobs Add it all up, and
mix of sand and oil being mined as a new kind of gusher. And
the next energy debate may not be about the oil the United States gets from the Arab nations in the
Thousands upon thousands

of jobs in the U. S. rely on that oil, said Christopher Sands, a senior fellow at the
Middle East, but the oil it gets from its neighbor to the north.
Washington- based Hudson Institute think tank who specializes in U. S.-Canadian relations. And 25
percent of all of our untapped resources are there. Thats a big deal. While Congress has been mired in
never-ending debates about drilling in Alaskas Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and, more recently, off the
Canada outstripped Saudi Arabia in 2004 as the top U. S. oil

supplier. Canada still pumps plenty of oil the traditional way, but
now nearly half its output comes from the oil sands. Found beneath a vast
forest the size of Florida, the sands contain an estimated 170 billion barrels of
oil the second largest reserve in the world, after Saudi Arabia. For decades, the oil beneath
that forest appeared too expensive to extract. But as oil prices have
increased and supplies have dwindled, oil companies are expected to
invest $100 billion in the coming years in the oil sands. Theyre
mining near the surface or more often, drilling deep underground
to extract an oil as thick as peanut butter. Once its processed to resemble
U. S. coasts,
traditional crude oil, much of it goes to refineries in the West and Midwest, then on to gas stations and to
With daily production projected to rise over

the next decade to 4 million barrels from 1.3 million barrels, oil and
pipeline companies have proposed 36 new pipeline projects
including two that cut through Western New York to get that oil to
potential customers. Sunoco has proposed a 24- inch pipeline to carry Canadian crude from
other uses. Proportionality clause
Buffalo to its Philadelphia refinery, possibly as soon as 2012. The pipeline would use the same right of way
as the pipeline that brings gasoline to the Buffalo area from Philadelphia, said Thomas Golembeski, a
Sunoco spokesman. Enbridge, Canadas leading pipeline company, has proposed a 30-inch pipeline using

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the same route. The proposal is one of the companys three alternatives for bringing crude from the oil
sands into the Northeast, said Jennifer Varey, a company spokeswoman. Were always looking for ways to
expand our system, Varey said. And were seeing tremendous interest in getting Canadian crude into the
Refineries there now rely on overseas imports that

are increasingly being tapped by China and India. That cant happen
to the same degree to Canadian crude all because of NAFTA. The
trade deal includes a proportionality clause that bars Canada from
reducing its oil and gas shipments to the U. S. while increasing its
domestic supply. We looked at whether Canada could reduce exports for the sake of
Philadelphia market.
conservation or environmental policy . . . or even for household heating. We cannot, said John Dillon, coauthor of a report on the issue published by the University of Albertas Parkland Institute and the Canadian
Centre for Policy Alternatives. But Canada might want to change all that if American politicians insist on
renegotiating the trade deal. Perhaps not surprisingly, Obama who called NAFTA devastating and a
big mistake during his campaign against Clinton softened his criticism once he clinched the Democratic
nomination. Sometimes during campaigns, the rhetoric gets overheated and amplified, he told Fortune
magazine in June, saying he was simply interested in opening up a dialogue with Canada and Mexico
and figuring out how we can make this work for all people. Campaign aides to McCain, the presumed
Republican nominee, did not respond to a request for comment, but others suggested that, for Obama, a
more careful approach to NAFTA only made sense. The Canadians might look for other options if we
became difficult customers, said Sands, of the Hudson Institute. Yet while easing off his aggressive anti-
A strong
proponent of developing alternative energy sources, the likely
Democratic nominee appears concerned about a possible
overreliance on the Canadian oil sands. The oil from the sands
contains more carbon, which makes it a bigger contributor than
traditional sweet crude to global warming. Alberta, therefore, plans
to spend $2 billion to capture and store the carbon removed from
the oil. If it turns out that these technologies dont advance, and the only way to produce these
NAFTA rhetoric, Obama remains likely to be a difficult customer for the Canadian oil industry.
resources would be at a significant penalty to climate change, then we dont believe that those resources
are going to be part of the long-term . . . future, Jason Grumet, Obamas senior energy adviser, told
reporters in June. Environmental issues Obama is not alone in worrying about the potential
environmental cost of oil from the oil sands. The U. S. Conference of Mayors passed a resolution in June
encouraging mayors to refrain from buying higher-carbon fuels for municipal vehicles. And Liz BarrattBrown, a senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said: T here
is a huge
infrastructure investment being made in a fuel that, in our view, is
taking us in the wrong direction. Its making it more difficult for us
to fully address the global warming issue. Environmentalists say
Albertas dirty oil contains three times as much carbon as sweet
crude, and they note that its production essentially involves stripmining Albertas boreal forest and disrupting, if not destroying, all
the wildlife there. Oil industry officials and Alberta provincial leaders
counter by saying they are doing everything they can to reduce the
oil sands carbon footprint and protect the environment. Yes, its a
heavier oil, said Greg Stringham, vice president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, who,
nevertheless, disputes the notion that it has three times as much carbon than light sweet crude.
Taking into account transportation and production impacts, the

carbon footprint of the sands oil is only about 10 percent greater
than that of oil from other parts of the world, Stringham said. He
said he was confident that the Canadian oil will be seen as clean
enough to be used in the United States for decades to come. And
with the U. S. facing a dwindling oil supply from the Middle East and
troublesome suppliers like Venezuela and Nigeria, some say it may
have no choice but to look to Canada to provide a bridge to an oilfree future.

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Impact is extinction from runaway climate change

Hansen, 12 --- directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(5/9/2012, James, NYT, Game Over for the Climate,

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/10/opinion/game-over-for-the-climate.html?
_r=0)
GLOBAL warming isnt a prediction. It is happening. That is why I was so troubled to read a recent interview with President
Obama in Rolling Stone in which he said that Canada would exploit the oil in its vast
tar sands reserves regardless of what we do. If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it
will be game over for the climate . Canadas tar sands, deposits of sand
saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by
global oil use in our entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to
burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the
Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet
higher than it is now. That level of heat-trapping gases would assure
that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of
control. Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global
temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the
planets species would be driven to extinction. Civilization would be
at risk. That is the long-term outlook. But near-term, things will be bad enough. Over the next several decades,
the Western U nited S tates and the semi-arid region from North Dakota
to Texas will develop semi-permanent drought, with rain , when it does come,
occurring in extreme events with heavy flooding. Economic losses
would be incalculable. More and more of the Midwest would be a dust bowl. Californias Central Valley
could no longer be irrigated. Food prices would rise to unprecedented levels . If
this sounds apocalyptic, it is. This is why we need to reduce emissions dramatically. President
Obama has the power not only to deny tar sands oil additional access to Gulf Coast refining, which Canada desires in part
for export markets, but also to encourage economic incentives to leave tar sands and other dirty fuels in the ground.

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NAFTA Turns Mexico Relations

NAFTA destroys Mexico relations and regional cooperation
turns case.
Dawson et al. 11 (Laura Dawson, Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson
Center, Antonio Ortiz Mena, Head of Section, Economic Affairs, Mexican
Embassy, Christopher Sands, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute, December 15,
The Death of Trilateralism in the NAFTA Neighborhood: Views from the
United States, Mexico, and Canada, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/thedeath-trilateralism-the-nafta-neighborhood-views-the-united-states-mexicoand-canada, Keerthi, Acc 11/10/13)
participants reexamined the assumption of a post-NAFTA world
whether trilateralism is dead
There
was a review of
NAFTA
the agreement was based on
decisions of
national interests rather than a grand vision for
North America
The three
specifically discussing
and how the three countries can move forward from the status quo.
the background of
, which highlighted that
pragmatic economic and
. Moreover, panelists highlighted NAFTAs achievements in trade and investment. NAFTA was the first modern free trade agreement between developed and developing
countries, which promoted greater economic integration but had no mandate for political integration. North American trade has tripled since 1994; the continent did less than $300 billion in trade in 1994, reached a
They provided
examples of underlying regional cooperation
dual bilateralism, in which the United
States works with
Mexico
peak of $942 billion in 2008, and has been declining since then. Looking at the death of trilateralism, panelists agreed such analysis is exaggerated.
, examples that do not necessarily garner significant attention, and offered
potential areas for engagement among the countries. While trilateralism is not dead,
Canada and
separately, has become more common. Participants noted this is particularly apparent when dealing with regulatory,
energy, and border issues. Countries are still, however, looking to harmonize and work toward trilateralism. There was discussion about how NAFTAprimarily a trade agreement for traditional goods, but also
is no longer state of the art and is unable to deal

with contemporary issues. Participants emphasized the need to
services, agriculture, procurement and investment trade
focus on issues such as
regulatory cooperation,
infrastructure
, and border efficiency, among others.

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Mexico Student Exchanges

Neg

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Solvency
Status quo solves- we are creating programs now.
ICEF 7/23 (ICEF organizes international student recruitment workshops and offers recruitment,
2013, Mexicos Higher Education Sector Eyeing Expansion, http://monitor.icef.com/2013/07/mexicoshigher-education-sector-eyeing-expansion/, Keerthi, Accessed 9/19/13)
Mexico and the United States announced new education links

and agreed that improved student mobility in both directions could
produce strong long term benefits for both countries. Today, ICEF Monitor takes a
Recently,
look at Mexicos higher education sector, its relationship with the US and other countries, and offers tips on how to access
Nieto and
US president Barack Obama jointly announced the formation of a Bilateral Forum
on Higher Education, Innovation, and Research. The goals include :
encourage broader access to quality post-secondary education for
the Mexican market. Mexico and its northern neighbour In early May, Mexican president Enrique Pea
traditionally underserved demographic groups, especially in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics
(STEM) fields;
expand educational exchanges ; increase joint research
on
share best practices in higher education and innovation.

President Nieto said during the joint announcement: To that end, both governments have
pledged to build upon the educational and research linkages that
already exist through federal, state, and local governments, public
and private academic institutions, civil society, and the private
sector.
education and learning;
Too many problems exist in Mexico for exchanges to be

effect.
ICEF 7/23 (ICEF organizes international student recruitment workshops and offers recruitment,
2013, Mexicos Higher Education Sector Eyeing Expansion, http://monitor.icef.com/2013/07/mexicoshigher-education-sector-eyeing-expansion/, Keerthi, Accessed 9/19/13)
Challenges for Mexico There remain issues for the Mexican

education sector and government to address moving forward. For instance, a recent survey
of over 400 universities found that only about 18% work with businesses and organisations in
teacher development , and only 16% have small business incubators.
Both percentages are considered to be far below optimal levels. Sergio Cardenas, professor and researcher with Mexican-based thinktank CIDE, emphasised, Despite a larger budget and a greater number of government
programmes to encourage collaboration, the majority of activities involving
university-industry cooperation are still incomplete and a mismatch

between universities and businesses in developing research opportunities persists.
Questions about the quality of university education in Mexico have
arisen in recent years. With the majority of Mexican students attending public universities, space restrictions at those
schools have allowed private institutions to rush in and fill the void. Calls for the
government to more strictly regulate these new private institutions and
implement quality control measures may create added pressures as Mexico advances
towards its goal of boosting overall tertiary enrolment. Another obstacle is the lack of low cost,
widespread Internet access . This may dampen the scale and speed
of adoption for online education and recruitment techniques. Finally,
Mexicos well- publicised security problems are also a concern. The issues

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with violence ensnaring innocent bystanders and even leading

to exam cancellations in Guadalajara last year. For educators, agents, and students, finding partners on the ground in Mexico can help
there are real,
pinpoint the safest areas and ease concerns, because locals are at least able to tell a more nuanced story about safety than that heard in the news.
Bunch of alternate causes because universities dont

cooperate- admissions credibility, tuition, credit transfer
and security.
Boz 13 (James, May 3, Freelance writer and consultant working on Latin American politics, security,
economics and technology issues, regarded as one of the top foreign policy bloggers and reporters, runs
his popular Latin American foreign policy blog called Blogging by Boz, Writes for Woodrow Wilson Center,
Fixing the problems in US-Mexico student exchanges http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/02/couldinstability-spread-to-latin.html, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
There are at least four areas where this forum can help improve the numbers: admissions,
tuition, credit transfer and security. On admissions , universities
need confidence that the exchange students are qualified and
students need relief from burdensome paperwork that some of these
programs demand. Usually, this is fixed by one-off agreements between
individual universities. This forum could help create a larger system agreed to by multiple universities that could ease this
process and open up additional opportunities for students in both directions. Tui
tion needs to be more
transparent for students , so they know how much they are

spending and where that money goes when they enter an exchange
program. Government encouragement and regulations can help empower students on this front and make
exchange programs more affordable. Students can't go on exchange programs if
the credits don't transfer and it requires an additional semester of university to graduate.
Universities need to communicate and collaborate to better
understand how classes and prerequisites overlap and how they can count towards
credits. This is one area that should be easier in STEM than it is in the social sciences and humanities. On
security , US universities need encouragement to allow their

students to travel to Mexico. Unlike the media, universities should be able
to look beyond the hype and recognize that some areas of the
country, including the capital, are relatively safe. Even a city that is less safe, like
Monterrey, has some great universities and students should be able to make informed decisions about whether they
would like to attend. Perhaps surprising to some US citizens, Mexican universities also need a bit of encouragement on the
security issue after all the coverage of school shootings in the US. This is a dialogue that needs to go in both directions.

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Cuban Agriculture Neg

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Solvency Answers
Poor transportation, waste management, and
accountability issues ensure agricultural failure.
Energy Skeptic 13 (July 11 2013, Cubas agriculture experiments are
not working out, http://energyskeptic.com/2013/cubas-agricultureexperiments-are-not-working-out/, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi)
President Ral Castro has made agriculture priority No. 1 in his attempt to
remake the country. Yet at this point, by most measures, the project has
failed. Mainly because of poor transportation. Trucks are in short
supply, and the aging ones that exist often break down. But also
because of: Waste Poor management Theft and other problems The
result: many Cubans are actually seeing less food at private markets. This is
despite an increase in the number of farmers and production gains
for certain items. A recent study from the University of Havana showed that market prices
jumped by nearly 20% in 2011 alone. And food imports increased to an estimated $1.7 billion last year, up
from $1.4 billion in 2006. In 2009, hundreds of tons of tomatoes, part of a bumper crop that year, rotted
because of a lack of transportation by the government agency charged with bringing food to processing
centers. Its
worse when it rains, said Javier Gonzalez, 27, a farmer in Artemisa Province
crops wilt and rot because they were not picked
who described often seeing
up.
Lack of control and faulty regulations means that the

agricultural industry will fail.
Rehmann 11 (Jan, March 11, 2011, Cubas Agriculture after the New
Reforms: Between Stagnation and Sustainable Development, Socalism and
Democracy Online, http://sdonline.org/29/cubas-agriculture-after-the-newreforms-between-stagnation-and-sustainable-development/, Accessed 8/8/13,
Keerthi)
To summarize, the path laid down by recent changes in the Cuban
agricultural sector, and the changes coming in a foreseeable future,
reinforce the claim that: If agricultural production for domestic
consumption and export are not revived and made profitable, it will
be impossible to speak about overcoming the economic crisis or
about restoring a healthy domestic financial situation This reform is
basically aimed at diversifying economic forms of production and productive agents, at altering the scale
of productive entities, at introducing and expanding a low-input and labor-intensive agriculture, at opening
the market, and at generating new incentives capable of stabilizing and attracting the necessary work
force for this sector. Financial and participatory autonomy and self-management are key to the
rationalization and economic viability of Cuban agriculture. This is definitely the preeminent approach to
solving the two main difficulties that afflict the country: the food problem and the shortage of hard
Scholars studying Cuban reality call the

transformations in agriculture Cubas Third Agrarian Reform .5 But
currency (Figueroa 1996, pp. 18-19).
while the mixed economy emerging in types and forms of land tenure and cultivation in Cuba evoke such
there are also unavoidable questions. Among these are

the states direct and indirect control over this sector, and the lack
of a clear institutionalization that legally validates the
transformations. There have been no transparent regulations for
land usufruct, for ownership of specialized crops (tobacco, coffee, cocoa, etc.), or
for making the implemented measures irreversible.
expansive phrases,

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The soil is too flawed and chemically faulty for a

successful agriculture industry.
Rehmann 11 (Jan, March 11, 2011, Cubas Agriculture after the New
Reforms: Between Stagnation and Sustainable Development, Socalism and
Democracy Online, http://sdonline.org/29/cubas-agriculture-after-the-newreforms-between-stagnation-and-sustainable-development/, Accessed 8/8/13,
Keerthi)
No analysis of problems facing Cuban agriculture and the UBPCs can
ignore the perils of deterioration of Cubas agrarian environment. Of
the islands 14 provinces, 11 show some symptoms of desertification; 14%
of the soil contains too much sodium; the soil in more than 1.5
million hectares is arid, semi-arid, or sub-humid and dry; 29% is
affected by erosion; 37% is inadequately drained; 41% has low
fertility, and 64% lacks sufficient organic matter. Undesirable brush
covers more than 1.3 million hectares (Daz 1997). A sustainable
agrarian economy cannot ignore these grave ecological problems. A
radical reorientation is needed, then, if the current potential of the islands agrarian policy is to be realized.
Since we now know that Cuban cooperatives are viable, the challenge is above all one of political will.
Whoever desires for twenty-first-century Cuba a link between economic efficiency and a system which
favors humanity, society, and the environmentin ownership relations defined by participatory comanagementmust promote the so-called Third Agrarian Reform and render it irreversible.
The Cuban government wont let go control of the

agriculture industry, which cause serial failure- no
privatization.
Democracy Digest 12 (D.D. provides news, analysis and information on
democracy assistance and related issues, published by the National

Endowment For Democracy and is edited by their special assistant Michael
Allen, graduated Summa Cum Laude in Political Studies from University of
Leeds and is in doctoral studies at the Univ. of Liverpool, Cuba reforms fail
because regime not ready to let go
http://www.demdigest.net/blog/2012/12/cuba-reforms-fail-because-regimenot-ready-to-let-go/, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi)
Cubas efforts to promote small-scale private enterprise are
floundering due to the governments innate authoritarianism , say
analysts. The failure of a new agriculture exchange near the capital, Havana, is
a vivid sign of both how much the country has changed, and of all
the political and practical limitations that continue to hold it back ,
The New York Times reports: Because of waste, poor management, policy
constraints, transportation limits, theft and other problems, overall
efficiency has dropped: many Cubans are actually seeing less food at
private markets. That is the case despite an increase in the number of farmers and production
gains for certain items. A recent study from the University of Havana showed that market prices
jumped by nearly 20 percent in 2011 alone. And food imports increased to an
estimated $1.7 billion last year, up from $1.4 billion in 2006. Its the first instance of
Cubas leader not being able to get done what he said he would , said
Jorge I. Domnguez, vice provost for international affairs at Harvard. The published statistical
results are really very discouraging. The reforms are failing to inject much dynamism
into the islands moribund economy, demonstrating that the regime has has lost the
ideological battle, observers claim. The projects failure highlights the tensions within the ruling
Community Partys attempt to reconcile free markets with authoritarian politics, along the lines of the

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about control,
said
Philip Peters, a Cuba analyst with the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based research group. Other analysts
agree, noting that though the agricultural reforms have gone farther than other changes like those that
allow for self-employment they remain constrained by politics. The
ready to let go,

They
government is not
said Ted Henken, a Latin American studies professor at Baruch College.
are sending the message that they want to let go, or are
trying to let go, but what they have is still a mechanism of

control.
Desperate for foreign revenue, Cubas government is suppressing news of a major cholera
outbreak for fear of alienating tourists. We have to question whether the Cuban government today
prioritizes their need for tourism more than local public health demands, wrote Sherri Porcelain, a
public health expert at the University of Miami and researcher at its Institute for Cuban and Cuban
American Studies. Worst hit by the cholera has been eastern Cuba, where Sandy came ashore last month
halfway between Manzanillo and Santiago, the islands second-largest city and capital of a province with
the same name.It damaged water, electricity and sewer systems, flooded latrines and left behind puddles
where dengue-carrying mosquitoes easily bred. There is tremendous worry in Santiago, said Clavel, one
of a dozen Cubans contacted for this story. Many were dissidents, unafraid to talk about the epidemics.
Their versions coincided in many ways, but could not be individually confirmed. The regimes recent
crackdown on pro-democracy dissidents has prompted the head of Spains ruling party to call for the
democratization of Cuba. I want to say very loudly and clearly that for the citizens of the western
countries, for all the citizens of the democratic countries that share the same cultural roots and the same
the existence of the Communist dictatorship in

Cuba is a reason for embarrassment and a call to our sense of
freedom and responsibility, said Esperanza Aguirre. Her countrys historical and cultural
moral and political values,
bonds with Cuba mean Spaniards have more responsibility than anyone else when it comes to taking on
the dictatorship, and when it comes to collaborating with the dissidence in order to achieve, once and for
all, a return to a free Cuba, she said.
Cuban farms are too burdened and imports are too high to
effectively improve the agricultural industry.
Paz 13 (Laura Paz, 5 March 13, Failing Farms Force Cuba to Import Food,
Inst. For War & Peace Reporting, http://iwpr.net/report-news/failing-farmsforce-cuba-import-food, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi)
Cubas agricultural sector continues to underperform, and the
authorities have acknowledged the heavy cost of importing food to
fill the gap. Shoppers are only too well aware of the implications, which
translate into high retail prices for foodstuffs. As President Ral Castro told a cabinet meeting in December, every time the
production quota is missed, the cost to the state runs into millions
of US dollars. Official figures show that Cuba spent 1.7 billion dollars on food imports in 2012, up from 1.5 billion in 2010. The projection for 2013 is
another 200-million-dollar increase, to 1.9 billion dollars. In early December, state television reported that annual production of
beans a staple item in Cuba was running at 20,000 tons a year,
when consumption was 100,000 tons. Despite President Castros focus on raising farm output since 2008, the
sector has consistently failed to fulfil the Communist Partys stated plan of growing
enough rice, beans, maize, soya and other crops to allow a gradual
reduction of imports. Pensioner Adela Sotolongo said she would be left penniless if she bought a small joint of pork an important meat
for Cubans to celebrate Christmas. For Christmas, she said, I only just managed to bring home a cabbage, a pound of tomatoes and kidney beans. Prices were too high
for my pension. The cost came to 35 pesos, which may not seem much at 1.30 dollars, but is a large proportion of her 210 peso monthly pension. In December, pork
cost 28 pesos a pound (just under half a kilogram). But according to Anabel, a private trader who has her own kiosk, prices are now running at 35 to 40 pesos.
Because food is in short supply at the state-run markets, many

shoppers have to buy from private sellers like Anabel, who add a mark-up. Juan Eye, a street trader in the
Arroyo Naranjo municipality of the capital Havana, explained the economics, describing how he bought produce from intermediaries who in turn sourced it from farmers.
I have to work like a mule and sell beans at high prices, because 220 pounds will cost me 1,700 pesos and Im only making 200 pesos per sack, he said.

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Mexico Dolphins WTO Neg

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1NC
1- Interpretations- Engagement is only positive
incentives --- negative pressure like sanctions arent
topical
Ikenberry 12 G. John Ikenberry, Professor of Politics and International
Affairs at Princeton University, Review of The Logic of Positive Engagement,
Foreign Affairs, January / February,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136888/miroslav-nincic/the-logic-ofpositive-engagement-cornell-studies-in-security-aff
When the United States seeks to change the behavior of rival or adversarial states, what are the available
American foreign-policy
makers tend to resort to negative pressures, such as the use of
tools and strategies? In this provocative study, Nincic observes that
force , coercive diplomacy , and economic sanctions . Less

appreciated and less understood, Nincic argues, are the tools and strategies of
engagement, policies that use positive inducements to alter the
incentives and orientations of other states. Nincic is surely correct:
policymakers know more about the use of sticks than carrots . The book
seeks to explain the bias in American foreign policy toward threats and punishments and argues that it is a
legacy of the Cold War, which taught politicians to worry about charges of appeasement. Nincic also sees
biases in the American security-studies community, where, he claims, realist understandings of the world
shift attention away from nonmilitary tools of influence. The books most useful contribution is to spell out
how strategies of engagement and positive inducements can work, using the United States experiences
with Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Syria as case studies.
3- Violation- Plan is negative pressure- it pressures

Mexican tuna farmers to oblige by US regulations.
4- voting issue:
A. Limits --- they more than double the topic, making all
of foreign policy topical --- also makes the topic
bidirectional because the U.S. could increase or decrease
sanctions against any country --- ruins preparation
because every strategy has to be written both ways
B. Ground --- coercive pressure is containment, not
engagement --- their interpretation destroys ground
because it accesses a vastly different and unpredictable
literature base
Johnston 99 Alastair Iain Johnston, Laine Professor of China in World
Affairs in the Government Department at Harvard University, et al., Engaging
China: The Management of an Emerging Power, Ed. Johnson and Ross, p. xiviv
The volume's comprehensive approach to studying engagement means that
the contributors have vastly different research agendas. To
encourage a common dialogue
among the contributors
and to facilitate the

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understanding of engagement with cross-national applications,

contributors have worked within a common definition of engagement. For
the purpose of this volume, engagement is defined as follows: The use of
generation of a common
the
non-coercive methods to ameliorate the non-status-quo elements of

a rising major power's behavior. The goal is to ensure that this growing power is used in
ways that are consistent with peaceful change in regional and global order. In this approach,
amelioration of the rising power's behavior does not include efforts to hinder the
accretion of relative power. This is better understood as "containment" .
We have neither defined nor limited the methods of amelioration, preferring that individual authors
characterize the methods used by the respective countries and/or multilateral institutions. "Non-coercive
methods" include such strategies as accommodation of legitimate interests, transformation of preferences,
and entanglement in bilateral and multilateral institutional constraints. The
contributors
clearly differentiate engagement from containment. In contrast to
containment, engagement seeks neither to limit, constrain, or delay
increases in the target country's power nor prevent the development
of influence commensurate with its greater power. Rather, it seeks to
"socialize" the rising power by encouraging its satisfaction with the evolving global or regional order. Our
definition of engagement specifically excludes coercive policies .
C. Voter for fairness and education.

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2NC Interpretation
1- Interpretation- Engagement requires the provision of
positive incentives
Haass 2k Richard Haass & Meghan OSullivan, Brookings Institution
Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions,
and Foreign Policy, p. 1-2
The term engagement was popularized amid the controversial policy of constructive
engagement pursued by the United States toward South Africa during the first term of the Reagan
administration. However, the term itself remains a source of confusion. To the Chinese, the
word appears to mean simply the conduct of normal relations. In German, no comparable translation
exists. Even to native English speakers, the concept behind the word is unclear.
Except in the few instances in which the United States has sought to isolate a regime or country,
America arguably "engages" states and actors all the time in one
capacity or another simply by interacting with them. This book,
however, employs the term engagement in a much more specific
way, one that involves much more than a policy of nonisolation. In
our usage, engagement refers to a foreign policy strategy that
depends to a significant degree on positive incentives to achieve its
objectives. Certainly, engagement does not preclude the simultaneous use of other foreign policy
instruments such as sanctions or military force. In practice, there is often considerable overlap of
strategies, particularly when the termination or lifting of sanctions is used as a positive inducement. Yet
the distinguishing feature of engagement strategies is their

reliance on the extension or provision of incentives to shape the
behavior of countries with which the U nited S tates has important
disagreements.

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T- Dialogue

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1NC
1- Engagement requires direct talks with the target
government
Crocker 9 Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Walsh
School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, Former Assistant

Secretary of State for African Affairs, Terms of Engagement, New York
Times, 9-13, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/opinion/14crocker.html?
_r=0
PRESIDENT OBAMA will have a hard time achieving his foreign policy goals
until he masters some key terms and better manages the expectations they convey. Given
the furor that will surround the news of Americas readiness to hold talks with Iran, he could start
with engagement one of the trickiest terms in the policy
lexicon. The Obama administration has used this term to contrast its
approach with its predecessors resistance to talking with
adversaries and troublemakers. His critics show that they misunderstand the concept of
engagement when they ridicule it as making nice with nasty or hostile regimes. Lets get a few things
straight. Engagement in statecraft is not about sweet talk. Nor is it based on the illusion that our problems
with rogue regimes can be solved if only we would talk to them. Engagement is not normalization, and its
goal is not improved relations. It is not akin to dtente, working for rapprochement, or appeasement. So
how do you define an engagement strategy? It does require direct

talks . There is simply no better way to convey authoritative
statements of position or to hear responses. But establishing talks is
just a first step. The goal of engagement is to change the other countrys perception of its own
interests and realistic options and, hence, to modify its policies and its behavior.
2- Violation --- plans only a unilateral change in policy; it

doesnt increase dialogue
3- Voting issue --A. Limits --- requiring direct talks places a functional limit
on the topic because few Affs can defend the process.
Specific import cases cant beat the PIC out of talks,
controlling the Negs research burden
B. Ground --- talks are a stable mechanism for DA links
and competition for counterplans like two-track or quiet
diplomacy --- core ground is key to fairness
C. Voter for fairness and education.

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2NC Interpretation
Engagement requires dialogue
Lederach 12 John Paul Lederach, Professor of International
Peacebuilding at the University of Notre Dame and Ph.D. in Sociology from
the University of Colorado, From Isolation to Engagement: Strategies for
Countering Violent Extremism, Peace Policy, 1-25,
http://peacepolicy.nd.edu/2012/01/25/from-isolation-to-engagementstrategies-for-countering-violent-extremism/
The U.S. governments list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations is a central part of a counter-terrorism
strategy based on the isolation of individuals and groups who espouse violence defined as terrorism. This
strategy makes it illegal to provide material support to those individuals and groups, which increasingly is
interpreted to prohibit any contact or consultation with groups on the list.
Peacebuilding, on the other hand, proposes a strategy of

engagement. Engagement requires contact and deliberative
dialogue , inclusive of all views. It develops processes that focus on accurately
understanding the sources of violence and addressing them through a range of nonviolent change
strategies.

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A2 Plan Creates Talks

That is not the type of talks and dialogue that our
Ikenberry interpretation talks about. Just because you
force a Mexico fisher to make a statement on tuna
restrictions doesnt mean you have inter-governmental
interaction. The affirmative must include things like
bilateral presidential talks, cooperative summits and
negotiations.

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A2 No Affs We Can Run

Are you kidding? The nexus of foreign policy and
engagement is inter-governmental dialogue. Here are a
ton of affirmatives you still can run1- Invite Mexico to international agreements like TPP and
TAFTA.
2- Talk with Mexico to fix NAFTA.
3- Increase intergovernmental cooperation on energy
resources. This includes 4-5 affirmatives by itself.
4- Increase talks for border improvements.
5- Student exchange programs sponsored by the
governments.
6- Government cooperation to combat drug cartels and
crime.
7- Reforming the Judicial sector.

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A2 Aff has an economic intention

Limiting engagement based on economic is hopeless
Posner 93 Richard A. Posner, Judge of the U.S. Court Appeals for the
Seventh Circuit and Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School,
The Problems of Jurisprudence, p. 367-368
Some arguments against applying economics to nonmarket behavior are particularly interesting from the perspective of
this book because they are based on stubborn philosophical fallacies, in particular that of essentialism, the idea that
everything has a property that defines it and is, indeed, its metaphysical essence, so that if this property is missing, the
thing to which it is supposed to be attached is a different thing from what we thought it was. (Laingdell was an
it is argued that economics means the study of markets,

so the study of nonmarket behavior is simply outside its scope, is
notcannot beeconomics. In fact, "economics," like "law" (or
"philosophy," or "democracy," or "religion"), has neither a fixed
intension nor a fixed extension; that is, it cannot be defined or the
complete set of things to which it applies enumerated. It is not like
"rabbit," a word that can be defined and then "attached"
unambiguously to each member of a finite set of real-world objects
that satisfy the definition. (Well, not quite, because the word is not misused when it is applied to
Harvey or the Easter Bunny, or to a timid human being.) Definitions of economics are
essentialist.) Thus
hopeless . One cannot say that economics is what economists do,

because many noneconomists do economicsor do they become economists by doing
so? One cannot, at least when attempting to speak precisely, call economics the science of
rational choice. There are theories of rational choice that do not
resemble economics, either because they assume unstable preferences,
which alters many of the predictions of economics, or because they assume a plurality of
rational actors within each human beingfor example, an impulsive self and a futureregarding self. And there are theories of economics that are nonrational or
not consistently rational. These include survival theories in industrial organization (firms that happen to
hit on more efficient methods of doing business will grow relative to less efficient firms) and the many macroeconomic
theories in which people are assumed to have propensities (to save, to consume, to hold a fixed fraction of their assets in
One cannot call economics

the study of markets, because other disciplines study marketsfor
example, sociology and anthropologyand because it begs the
question of the proper domain of economics to define economics as the study of markets and refuse to defend the
definition. What is true is that historically the emphasis of economics has been on
studying markets. This is partly because data of the sort useful for economic analysis have been abundant,
cash) that arc not derived from the rational model ot human behavior.
partly because (unlike such areas of human behavior as law. religion, education, statecraft, love, and madness) the study
of markets has been of only marginal interest to practitioners of other human sciences, partly because economic theory
has many applications to the understanding of markets, partly (related to the last point) because rational behavior seems
more pervasive in markets than in most other arenas of social interaction, and partly because money offers a measuring
rod for the study of markets comparable to the role of mass and velocity in physics .
But the history of a

fieldeven the character of its greatest triumphsdoes not
determine its future or delimit its scope .

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1NC
DONT RUN THIS WITH T- DIALOGUE UNLESS YOURE AN IDIOT.
1- Interp- "Substantial" means actually existing, real, or

belonging to substance
Words and Phrases 2 (Volume 40A) p. 460
Ala. 1909. Substantial
means belonging to substance; actually existing; real;

*** not seeming or imaginary; not elusive; real; solid; true; veritable
"Substantial" means having substance or considerable

Ballentine's 95 (Legal Dictionary and Thesaurus, p. 644)
having substance; considerable
2- Violation- the affirmative isnt real and is not tangibleits just a mandated act.
3- Voting IssueA. Limits- they can do anything with Mexico outside of
tangible effects of the affirmative- explodes research
burden and hurts fairness.
B. Ground- we cant garner Disad links for their aff if its
not substantial enough. Disad links will be too minimal to
create real effects. There are zero counterplans for an
insubstantial action like this.
C. Voter for Fairness and Education.

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A2 No Affs We Can Run

Yes, you have a lot of affs with real tangible products1. Renewable energy- creates 10-20 real tangible sources
of alternative energy which are viable and substantial.
2. Oil cooperation- creates real oil sources.
3. Infrastructure development.
4. Cuban Embargo
5. Agricultural resources.

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Inherency

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1NC
Plans non-inherentthe US has done the aff.
Beachy 7/12 (Ben, Public Citizen, 7/12/13, Obama Administration Stands
Firm on Dolphin-Safe Tuna Labels; Will the WTO Authorize Trade Sanctions?,
http://citizen.typepad.com/eyesontrade/2013/07/obama-administrationstands-firm-on-dolphin-safe-tuna-labels-will-the-wto-authorize-tradesanctions.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
In a creative response to a 2012 World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a new regulation supported by Public
that strengthens the criteria for dolphin-safe labeling . Mexico,
which challenged the policy, sought a rollback of the labeling program and has indicated that it may
Citizen
challenge the new regulation and seek WTO authorization to impose trade sanctions against the United States.
NOAAs welcome announcement puts the spotlight back on the WTO ,

which must decide if it will accept the policy as meeting WTO rules or continue its legacy of undermining dolphin
protection. A U.S. ban on the sale of tuna caught with dolphin-deadly purse seine nets was gutted in 1997 after 1991 and
1994 trade challenges by Mexico and other nations. The ban was enacted after six million dolphins were killed by the nets.
Outrage over the rollback triggered a new era of trade activism. Mexicos latest challenge targeted the voluntary labeling
This market-oriented approach

provides consumers with information so they can decide if they
prefer dolphin-safe tuna. Public Citizen applauds NOAAs approach, which breaks
with years of the U.S. government weakening consumer and
environmental policies attacked at the WTO, said Lori Wallach, director of Public
policy that replaced the ban on dolphin-deadly tuna.
Citizens Global Trade Watch. We are now left to wait and wonder if the WTO will continue its anti-environmental, anticonsumer rights legacy or finally side with Flipper and consumers right to make informed decisions about the food we
purchase. In a controversial move, the WTO ruled in 2012 that the U.S. labeling program, for which many countries
tuna qualifies, violated WTO non-discrimination rules because tuna caught in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) had to
meet additional criteria to qualify for the label. The ETP is the only region where dolphins are known to congregate above
schools of tuna. Thus, dolphin-safe criteria for that region are set by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC),
an international body that includes Mexico, and apply to all fishers operating there. The U.S. labeling regime is voluntary.
If U.S. or Mexican fishers choose to use the dolphin-safe methods stipulated by the regime, their tuna qualifies for U.S.
dolphin-safe labels. Tuna not meeting the standard can be sold in the United States without the label. U.S., Ecuadorean
and other tuna fleets chose to meet the dolphin-safe standard. After decades of refusing to transition to more dolphin-safe
fishing methods, Mexico challenged the labeling program at the WTO. The WTO ruled against the policy even though the
same standards applied to U.S. fishers, though the alleged discrimination resulted from Mexican fishers decision not to
meet the standard, and though Mexican tuna could be sold in the United States without the dolphin-safe label.
NOAAs new policy, supported by Public Citizen and other consumer and environmental groups,
addresses the discrimination claim by strengthening the criteria
used to assure that tuna caught in other regions and sold under the
dolphin-safe label is caught without injuring or killing dolphins.
before this improvement,
the labels contributed to a more than 97 percent
reduction in tuna-fishing-related dolphin deaths in the past 25

years . The labels allow consumers to vote with their dollars for dolphin-safe methods.
Even

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2NC Voting Issue

Inherency HAS to be a voting issue1- Bright Line- our evidence is VERY good on how the plan
is already occurring. There is zero gray area with the
affirmative. This is also a reason to err affirmative on
interpretations.
2- Its a stock issue- theres no jurisdiction for a noninherent affirmative.
3- Kills ground- all DA links are non-unique because the
plan has already occurred.
4- No literature- authors dont write about the desirability
or implications of a policy action that has already
occurred.
5- Limits- allowing non-inherent affs literally makes ANY
action that weve taken toward Mexico, Cuba or Venezuela
legitimate. I could run a The US should Invade the Bay of
Pigs in Cuba aff and it would be legitimate. That
explodes our research burden which hurts fairness.
6- Voting Issue for ground, education, and fairness.

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2NC Plan Happening

The plan is happening- NOAA has taken actions.
ICTSD 7/18 (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development,
2013, US Revises Dolphin-Safe Tuna Label,
http://ictsd.org/i/news/bridgesweekly/172647/, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
The US has enacted new reforms to its dolphin-safe labelling
programme, in an effort to comply with an adverse WTO ruling issued
last year. However, Mexico, which had been the complainant in the high-profile dispute regarding tuna
imports, has already said that the changes do not go far enough toward meeting Washingtons WTO
The new US
regulation was developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), which had circulated its proposals in April in order to allow
for public comments. (See Bridges Weekly, 18 April 2013) The final version was
announced last week, ahead of the WTO-established 13 July compliance
deadline. Under the changes, captains and other approved observers will
obligations and has promised to challenge them at the global trade arbiter.
be required to certify that no dolphins were killed or seriously

injured during fishing operations
occurring outside the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
This, Washington says, would make the labelling program even-handed compared to before, where no
such requirements were necessary for importers outside the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) region.

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Solvency

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1NC
1- Mexico would say NOtoo many regulations, fishery
stability, trade counter-measures.
ICTSD 7/18 (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development,
2013, US Revises Dolphin-Safe Tuna Label,

http://ictsd.org/i/news/bridgesweekly/172647/, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
Mexico: New rules insufficient
Though the new US measure now covers tuna caught in both the ETP and non-ETP regions, Mexico
alleges that its fishermen will continue to face two separate
regulatory regimes and will still be subject to discriminatory
treatment. The NOAA regulation, Mexico says, is therefore not in
compliance with the terms of the Appellate Body ruling. Mexico will
continue defending the national fisheries sector and the
sustainability of fisheries in the WTO and other international
forums, the Mexican Secretary of the Economy said in a statement, promising to formally challenge
the new measures compliance. If the violation [of WTO agreements] is
confirmed, Mexico could impose trade countermeasures against the
United States. Under WTO rules, Mexico can request that the original dispute panel issue a
decision on the US compliance in the case. Should the judges find that the US did indeed fail to implement
the ruling, countermeasures can then be authorised by the arbitrators. Washington is set to provide a
status report on the dispute at the next meeting of the WTOs Dispute Settlement Body (DSB), which is
scheduled for 23 July. It was not clear as Bridges went to press whether Mexico would lodge a compliance
challenge at that time.
2- Plan has to go through the WTO again- they say no to

the affirmative.
In a creative response to a 2012 World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling, the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a new regulation supported by Public
that strengthens the criteria for dolphin-safe labeling . Mexico,
which challenged the policy, sought a rollback of the labeling program and has indicated that it may
Citizen
challenge the new regulation and seek WTO authorization to impose trade sanctions against the United States.
NOAAs welcome announcement puts the spotlight back on the

WTO, which must decide if it will accept the policy as meeting WTO
rules or continue its legacy of undermining dolphin protection.
A U.S.
ban on the sale of tuna caught with dolphin-deadly purse seine nets was gutted in 1997 after 1991 and 1994 trade
challenges by Mexico and other nations. The ban was enacted after six million dolphins were killed by the nets. Outrage
over the rollback triggered a new era of trade activism. Mexicos latest challenge targeted the voluntary labeling policy
This market-oriented approach provides

consumers with information so they can decide if they prefer
dolphin-safe tuna. Public Citizen applauds NOAAs approach, which breaks with
years of the U.S. government weakening consumer and
environmental policies attacked at the WTO, said Lori Wallach, director of Public
Citizens Global Trade Watch. We are now left to wait and wonder if the WTO will
that replaced the ban on dolphin-deadly tuna.

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continue its anti-environmental, anti-consumer rights legacy or

finally side with Flipper and consumers right to make informed
decisions about the food we purchase.
3- Heres a critical distinction- the affirmative only has the

goal of separating dolphin-caught tuna in US markets. The
dolphins will still die, but the tuna is just sold differently.
The U.S. labeling regime is voluntary . If U.S. or Mexican fishers
choose to use the dolphin-safe methods stipulated by the regime,
their tuna qualifies for U.S. dolphin-safe labels. Tuna not meeting
the standard can be sold in the United States without the label . U.S.,
Ecuadorean and other tuna fleets chose to meet the dolphin-safe standard. After decades of refusing to
transition to more dolphin-safe fishing methods,
program
Mexico challenged the labeling
at the WTO. The WTO ruled against the policy even though the same standards applied to
U.S. fishers, though the alleged discrimination resulted from Mexican fishers decision not to meet the
Mexican tuna could be sold in the United States

without the dolphin-safe label.
standard, and though

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2NC Mexico Says NO

Mexico says noits too restrictive of a sanction.
In a creative response to a 2012 World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a new regulation
supported by Public Citizen
that strengthens the criteria for dolphin-safe
labeling . Mexico, which challenged the policy, sought a rollback of the

labeling program and has indicated that it may challenge the new
regulation and seek WTO authorization to impose trade sanctions
against the United States.

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2NC WTO Says NO

Empirics prove- WTO would say no to the aff.
Mexico has stated that it is analyzing all the available legal mechanisms to
push the United States to alter its response, which includes
requesting WTO authorization to impose trade sanctions against the
U nited S tates. WTO approval of such sanctions would continue the saga of WTO
interference with countries environmental policies and reinforce the anti-WTO public sentiment spurred by last years spate
of anti-consumer WTO rulings. In April 2012, the WTO ruled against the Obama administrations
flavored cigarettes ban used to curb youth smoking, and in June 2012 it ruled against
the popular U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) program used to inform consumers where their
meat comes from. If the WTO decides that the new policy does not meet its
requirements, Mexico can impose trade sanctions against the United
States until the policy is altered to the WTOs satisfaction. If sanctions are
authorized, the administration may find the best response to be maintaining the new regulation and negotiating a settlement with Mexico. This
was the European Unions approach after a WTO ruling against its ban on artificial beef hormones that is widely popular with consumers. U.S.
environmentalists have won repeated court cases stopping attempts by the George W. Bush and Clinton administrations to weaken the
regulations defining the criteria for obtaining a dolphin-safe label under the current law. Thus, absent a negotiated settlement, the
administration would face the prospect of having to seek a congressional rollback of a widely popular law, effectively asking Congress to feed
Flipper to the WTO.

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Navy Power
1- The dolphins that the Navy uses are held in captivity in
select locations to be bred for naval abilities for the
military. Dolphins going extinct in the WILD doesnt mean
that dolphins in captivity would be harmed.
2- This completely contradicts the bio-d advantage. The
point of the first advantage is to stop death of dolphins.
But the second advantage wants to place dolphins in lines
of harm to be killed potentially.

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Biodiversity
1- they have no solid link between death of dolphins in
one region and overall spillover. Dolphins wont die in the
Indian Ocean because a dolphin dies off the coast of
Mexico. Make them prove a causal link.
2- dolphins have already died in the past because of
Mexican tuna farmers- there was no spillover then
meaning no impact.
3- Alt causes to dolphin deathsa) Western Atlantic and disease.
Dell Amore 13 (Christine, 8/21, U.S. Dolphin Deaths Rise to 300; Cause
Still a Mystery, http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/08/130821dolphins-deaths-east-coast-nation-animals-science/, National Geographic,
Keerthi, Accessed 8/24)
The spike in bottlenose dolphin deaths this summer is showing no
signs of stopping: Nearly 300 of the marine mammals have died along the East Coast as of
August 20, according to the federal government. (Related: "Why Are Dolphins Dying on East Coast?
The high death toll, covering an area that stretches
from New York to Virginia, has been labeled an "unusual mortality
event," and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has experts scrambling
to figure out what's going on. Based on the rapid increase in dead bodies
washing ashore, and the broad geographic reach, "an infectious
pathogen is at the top of the list of potential causes," according to NOAA's
Experts Alarmed.")
website. "We realize that people are very concerned and anxious to learn what we know about the
dolphin deaths that have been occurring along the mid-Atlantic coast over the past few weeks," Maggie
Mooney-Seus, a spokesperson for NOAA Fisheries, told National Geographic by email. Experts have
collected quite a bit of information from various animals' blood and tissue samples, which they're testing
for a variety of toxins, biotoxins, bacteria, fungi, and viruses, she said. Several of the dead dolphins have
tested positive for morbillivirus, a measles-like, airborne virus that's often fatal in dolphins. A morbillivirus
epidemic hit East Coast bottlenose dolphins in 1987 and 1988, wiping out at least 900 animals and striking
a major blow to that population of migratory mammals. However, there's no definitive cause yet, and some
of the tests take weeks to complete, Mooney-Seus noted. "We share the public's desire to get answers to
what is causing this and are working as quickly as we can to get those answers."
b) Climate Change
WDCS 13 (Whale and Dolphin Conservation, Whales in Hot Water?
http://www.wdcs.org/submissions_bin/whales_hot_water.pdf, graph is omitted,
The impacts of climate change on cetaceans are expected to be
diverse and mediated in various ways (see Figure 1.) Some impacts may be
direct: for example, as temperatures Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second
half of the 20th century were ... very likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years ... Eleven of the last twelve years
rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature. i Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 3 WWF-Canon/Kevin SCHAFER Observations since 1961 show that the average
temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing more
change some cetacean species

may respond by shifting their distributions to remain within optimal habitat. However,
in some cases such range shifts will not be possible . For example, the northern
than 80 % of the heat added to the climate system. ii IPCC.

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Indian Ocean is fringed by land, limiting the ability of species to move northwards into cooler habitat as waters warm.
distribution of the endangered vaquita (Phocoena sinus) is limited to the warm

waters at the northern end of the Gulf of California. River dolphins such as the Ganges river dolphin
(Platanista gangetica) and the boto (Inia geoffrensis) may also be particularly vulnerable to
temperature changes within their strictly limited habitats. vii, viii Other
Similarly the
examples are less immediately obvious but still significant. Off northwest Scotland, the common dolphin (Delphinus
delphis), a warm water species, is apparently increasing its range, while the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus
albirostris), a cold water species, is seemingly reducing its range, and fewer sightings and strandings of the latter are
being reported. White-beaked dolphins are generally found in cold water less than 200m deep off northwest Europe.
Their ability to respond to climate change by locating new suitable

habitat may be limited because there is a lack of suitable shelf
waters further north. Temperature rise therefore is likely to have
serious implications for white-beaked dolphins, and may lead to a decline
in abundance or fragmentation of the species distribution.
c) Ocean acidification.
The Ecologist 9 (December 21st, Marine mammals under threat from
ocean noise pollution,
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/385090/marine_mammals_
under_threat_from_ocean_noise_pollution.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
Oceans becoming noisier as sounds travel further in increasingly
acidic water Ocean noise pollution is getting worse and harming marine
mammals because of the affects of carbon emissions and ocean
acidification, according to a new study. Rising carbon emissions are making
the oceans more acidic as the CO2 combines with the seawater to
produce carbonic acid. In turn, ocean acidification and rises in seawater temperature make
seas less able to absorb low-frequency sounds, so noise travels further. This is linked to
deafness in dolphins, beachings and loss of habitat as marine
mammals seek quieter surroundings. The findings, published by scientists
from the University of Hawaii and the University of California, provide more
evidence of the damage caused by ocean acidification. This is a highly
significant paper because attention has focused on the effects of ocean
acidification on calcification [such as the dissolving of shellfish shells], but not on how it will
completely change the acoustics of the oceans, said Dr Jason Hall-Spencer, a Lecturer in Marine Science
and Engineering at the University of Plymouth.
d) Noise pollution, military activities, and infrastructurethis specifically impacts keystone and hotspot species.
The Ecologist 9 (December 21st, Marine mammals under threat from
ocean noise pollution,

http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/385090/marine_mammals_
under_threat_from_ocean_noise_pollution.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/24/13)
According to data modelling by the lead author of the study, Dr Tatiana
Ilyina from the University of Hawaii, sound absorption for low-frequency noise
could fall by up to 60 per cent by 2100 in high-latitude, deep oceans if we do not
significantly cut back carbon emissions. Whales and dolphins were likely to be affected
worst, principally by being frightened away. This is a particular
problem for specific species of dolphin or whale that are endemic to
certain habitats. Dr Hall-Spencer said that the construction of an airport in Hong
Kong had had a negative impact on the pink dolphins there that were
specific to that region. However, in some cases the damage to mammals

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could be worse. The most extreme effects reported are tissue

damage or mass stranding of whales associated with military tests
of active acoustic systems, said Dr Ilyina. Marine species have been known to adapt to lowlevel manmade noise such as from shipping, which are dominated by natural sources of sound such as
breaking waves and rain. But Dr Ilyina said more research was needed on the impacts of noisier seas on
marine mammals.

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Cuba Telecommunications
Negative

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1NC
Plan is non-inherent:
A. Mexico is already helping Cuba solve its telecom
systems.
Press last updated 2009 (Larry Press, Professor of Information Systems at California State
University, Professor of Information Systems at California State University, MBA and PhD in information
processing are from UCLA, 2013, CUBAN TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT,
Assoc for the Study of the Cuban Economy,
http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume6/pdfs/24press1.fm.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
The major hope for improving the Cuban telephone infrastructure

rides on a joint venture between the Monterey, Mexico holding
company Grupo Domos Internacional (Domos) and the Empresa de Teleco- municaciones de
Cuba, S. A. (ETECSA). In June, 1993, Cuba decided to privatize telecommunication, and invited
proposals for joint venture partners. Iusa- cell was selected first, but withdrew to
concentrate resources for competition in Mexico when the Telmex monopoly ends in 1997. (Dolan [5]
specu- lates that there may also have been fear of interference by the Cuban bureaucracy.) In June, 1994
Domos, through their subsidiary CITEL (Corporacion Interamericana de Telecomu- nicaciones),

agreed to purchase a 49% interest in the Cuban phone system for a
reported $1.5 billion [1]. ETECSA was separated from the Ministry of Tele- communications,
and established as a private joint venture. The Ministry regulates
the phone system and sets rates, so one can assume there are close ties between it and
ETECSA.
B. US is investing now.
Press last updated 2009 (Larry Press, Professor of Information Systems at California State
University, Professor of Information Systems at California State University, MBA and PhD in information
processing are from UCLA, 2013, CUBAN TELECOMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT,
Assoc for the Study of the Cuban Economy,
http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume6/pdfs/24press1.fm.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
We can expect gradual investment in Cuban telecommunication. In

spite of the political risks, Castro sees that modern communication and computer networks
are necessary for the economy. (This dictators dilemma is being faced in many nations.)6 U. S.
companies have invested in international telecommunication links .
investment in internal telecommunication
infrastructure was allowed under the terms of the Cuban Democracy Act, since that is
It was arguable that U.S.
where the major communication bottleneck is, and communication was to be encouraged. (Encouraging
political communication without strengthening the economy and internal security is the democrats
dilemma.)
C. Most recent evidence Obama is authorizing Cuban

telecom cooperation now
Omar Perez Solomon, 10/24/13, Obama Reinforces the
Telecommunications Blockade,
http://cubainsidetheworld.wordpress.com/2013/10/24/obama-reinforces-thetelecommunications-blockade-cuba-miami-south-africa/, Keerthi, Acc
10/31/13)
The Obama administration continues the line of his predecessors and reinforces the unjust economic embargo against
Cuba.
In the case of telecommunications,
April 13, 2009,
issued a

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memorandum with permits to service providers of the United States to: Authorize
companies to establish telecommunications networks agreements
to create the satellite telecommunications facilities and fiber optic
links to U.S. and Cuba. Allow service to telecommunications
companies to begin negotiations and operate under roaming service
agreements with telecommunications service companies for Cuba.
Allow service to television companies and satellite radio to start
the transactions necessary to offer the service to customers in
Cuba.

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2NC Non-Inherent
Plan happening now US and foreign investment and
technical assistance.
BuddeCom 2013 (Government research center for Australian
government, largest telecommunications research site in the world, January

2013, Cuba - Telecoms Mobile and Broadband - Analyses and Statistics,
http://www.budde.com.au/Research/Cuba-Telecoms-Mobile-and-BroadbandAnalyses-and-Statistics.html#sthash.rchN18Pd.dpu, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
Market highlights: Since 2009 US telcos have been able to establish themselves
in Cuba though reticence on the part of Cuban authorities has made co-operation difficult. The incumbent Etecsa, now merged with its
mobile subsidiary Cubacel, has worked with the government to improve teledensity in
poorly served areas of the capital, though services remain limited. The ALBA-1 submarine
fibre-optic cable between Cuba and Venezuela has the potential to
provide 640Gb/s bandwidth. In May 2013 the Jamaican branch of the cable
was opened for traffic, following the route through to Venezuela in January 2013. Mobile subscriber growth of around 30% in 2011 has largely been the
result the governments 2008 decision to allow private ownership of cell phones, as also a response to the poor fixed-line infrastructure. Mobile penetration nevertheless
remains among the lowest in Latin America. Public internet access is also limited, with most dial-up the only realistic access for citizens. The high cost of access, as also
A number
of new access points made available from mid-2013 has extended
the availability of internet access, though restrictions on content remain. ETECSA reduced the cost of domestic phone
the limitations of dial-up connectivity, mean that the potential of the WWW, as recognised in most other countries, remains impossible in Cuba.
calls at the end of 2012 and introduced a calling-party-pays system. Trial DTT services in Havana using the Chinese DTMB system rely on Chinese-donated STBs, given
the scarcity of TVs and STBs in the country.

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2NC Voting Issue

interpretations.
2- its a stock issue- theres no jurisdiction for a noninherent affirmative.
occurred.
explodes our research burden, which hurts fairness.

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Solvency

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1NC
No AdoptionCubans Dont Have Enough Money
Kang 09(Cecilia, staff writer Washington Post, 4-15-2009, Washington Post, U.S. Telecoms Eager to
Build a Business Presence in Cuba, web, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/04/14/AR2009041403144.html, AC)
before cellphone and Internet providers rush in, they will closely study potential
pitfalls in setting up shop in the Communist nation with one of the poorest
populations in the region, analysts said. The Cuban government has not
been helpful in allowing its citizens access to communications
technology, said David Gross, who was U.S. ambassador and coordinator for International
Information and Communications Policy during the Bush administration. Now that the United
States has opened the door, he said, "the question is whether the Cuban
government will allow people to come inside." Cuba has the lowest percentage
But
of telephone, Internet and cellphone subscribers in Latin America, according to Manuel Cereijo, a professor
of electrical engineering at the University of Miami. About 11 percent of residents subscribe to land-line
telephone service, and 2 percent have cellphone service. Under President Obama's plan, U.S. telecom
companies would be able to build undersea cable networks that connect the two nations .
Cellphone
carriers would be able to contract with Cuba's government-run
wireless operator to provide service to its residents and offer
roaming services to Americans visiting the island. U.S. satellite operators such
as Sirius XM Radio and Dish Network could beam Martha Stewart and MTV programs to the nation. Cubans
But with average

monthly salaries of about $15, many citizens might not be able to
afford service fees, according to experts on Cuban policy and telecommunications
infrastructure. Others question whether residents would spend money on
BlackBerrys and services such as video on demand, especially if the
government restricts Web content. "The infrastructure that exists there today is lousy, and the
Cuban people are paid in pesos, which is worth nothing," Cereijo said.
"They are thinking about buying food first."
could also receive cellphones and computers donated from overseas.
No solvency- theres no electrical capacity for improved

telecom, no batteries, and devices are inefficient.
Nichols and Torres 10 (John Spicer Nichols, professor of
communications and a specialist in international communications,

comparative media systems and telecommunications policy at Penn State,
Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota, Alicia M Torres, Telecommunications
in Cuba http://www.vii.org/papers/cuba.htm, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
In the best of times Cuba had difficulty supplying enough electricity to meet
basic demand. Virtually all its generating capacity is dependent on
imported oil. Beginning in 1989 the Soviet Union, plagued by its own political and economic disruptions, terminated the barter
arrangements that brought over 13 million tonnes of oil and oil products to Cuba annually at far below market prices. In 1994 Cuba imported
only 1.5 million tonnes of oil from the former Soviet republics, a nearly 90 percent drop (Mesa-Lago 1995). Discovery of small amounts of low-
the Cuban government had hoped to

reduce its dependence on foreign oil by finishing construction of a
nuclear power plant at Cienfuegos, a major southern port. However, because of frequent construction delays, design
quality domestic crude helped cover the shortfall somewhat, but
problems, huge cost overruns, and the dwindling supply of equipment and technical expertise from the Russians contractors, the project was
halted in 1992. At that time, US$1.1 billion had been spent and the project was 70-percent complete. Work resumed in late 1995. Completion
As a result, electricity has

been strictly rationed; work hours shortened; street lights and air conditioning to public buildings are frequently shut
is not anticipated in the near term. The oil drought is one of Cuba's graver problems.
off; restaurants, nightclubs and movie theaters close early; entire neighborhoods are blacked-out for hours at a time; and bicycles have
replaced automobiles on Cuban streets. In the late 1980s, the Cuban economy already was in decline, but without sufficient fuel to harvest

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Keerthi Gondi
and transport the sugar crop (Cuba's primary source of foreign exchange),
a significant
economic
there is little or no prospect for
recovery . Electronic communications also have
been hit : sufficient electricity is obviously important to effective

operation of a telecommunications system. Although television was an extremely popular source
of entertainment for Cubans living in increasingly bleak conditions (in 1986 Cuba had the second highest number of television receivers per
Not only do
transmitters require large amounts of power, but the Soviet-made TV sets
in widespread use are not energy efficient, consuming about three
times the power of typical US or Japanese sets. Television
transmissions were cut to as little as 5 hours a day. Because radio receivers require very little energy, radio
transmissions were not cut significantly. However, batteries were in very short supply. (Marrero 1994.)
capita, 202 per 1000, in Latin America) it was an early casualty of the crushing energy shortage.
In mid 1995, as an indication of the stabilizing economy and the importance of television to the entertainment-starved Cuban population, TV
schedules were expanded to 12 hours a day. Black outs also were far less frequent.
The plan is not enough their author

--ICT = Information and Communications Technology
Piccone et al. 10 (Theodore J. Piccone, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director for Foreign Policy at
the Brookings Institution, former senior policy advisor on Latin America in the Clinton Administration;
Christopher Sabatini, Senior Director of Policy for the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Editorin-Chief of Americas Quarterly, Carlos Saladrigas, Co-Chairman of the Board of the Cuba Study Group, a
nonprofit, non-partisan organization comprised of business and community leaders of Cuban descent, July
2010, Brookings Institute Issue Brief No. 3,Bridging Cubas Communication Divide: How U.S. Policy Can
Help, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba
%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
Given the low probability of congressional action to amend laws

regulating U.S. ICT investments in Cuba, the Obama Administration
should take steps now to build on its initial efforts to expand ICT services to the Cuban people. In
keeping with the spirit of current law and policy to facilitate and U.S.-CUBA RELATIONS AT BROOKINGS Latin america initiative at BrOOKinGS
6 expand communications services between our two countries,
it should: narrow the interpretation
of language pro- hibiting U.S. investment in Cubas telecom network by, for example, specifying that the
prohibition is limited to physical manufacture of network architecture by U.S. firms on the
island; define efficient and adequate telecom services broadly to
mean fast and reliable links that allow Cubans access to modern satellite, internet
and mobile communications services and the necessary infrastructure to make such services feasible; devote a
significant portion
of the $20 million in U.S. government support to civil society
to provide
families, small farmers and other entrepreneurs in Cuba with training and equipment
modern telecommunications services;
in
explore and catalogue options for free online
software that can be downloaded by people on the island for local

use;
further revise regulations
and if necessary seek legislative amendments to allow U.S.
companies to invest in telecommunications network on the island;
requirements
authorize more flexible end user
to allow for the sale of pre-paid phone cards and phones in Cuba;
foundations and corporations
work with private
on creative ways to donate telecom services on the island, for example by
offering to donate equipment under the one laptop per child initiative;
develop distance-learning
programs on the technology, experiences and applications of ICT to

economic and humanitarian activity; issue a general license
authorizing any U.S. citizen to engage in transactions
necessary to pay for cellular,

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Keerthi Gondi
satellite TV and radio fees for Cuban citizens. By expanding access today through regulatory reforms, the Obama Administration would also
help ensure that Cubas citizens and economy are well positioned for the transition to a modern, information-based economy that can provide
broad- based, sustainable economic development on the island.
Cant solve for telecom without lifting the entire embargo

Piccone et al. 10 (Theodore J. Piccone, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director for Foreign Policy at
the Brookings Institution, former senior policy advisor on Latin America in the Clinton Administration;
Christopher Sabatini, Senior Director of Policy for the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Editorin-Chief of Americas Quarterly, Carlos Saladrigas, Co-Chairman of the Board of the Cuba Study Group, a
nonprofit, non-partisan organization comprised of business and community leaders of Cuban descent, July
2010, Brookings Institute Issue Brief No. 3,Bridging Cubas Communication Divide: How U.S. Policy Can
Help, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba
%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
We know there is a strong correlation between access to ICT and

economic growth and development. Conversely, the large investments
required for ICT infrastructure will only take place when there is a
revenue model to support the investment and provide investors with
market-based rates of return. In the case of Cuba, this became clear
with cellular phones. As little as five years ago, there were just a few
thousand mobile phones in Cuba, almost all of them in the hands of
government officials, foreigners and members of the elite. Since 2008, when
President Raul Castro announced the lifting of the ban on cell
phones, the number of cell phones is rapidly approaching one
million. The reason is simplecell phone revenues have become an
important source of hard currency. The economic model outweighed political
concerns. It is unreasonable to hope for the development of other
ICTs, such as the internet and social media, without economic
models to make them work. Thus, the challenge for U.S. policymakers
consists not only in effecting targeted reforms to its 50-year old
embargo, but in broadly lifting all restrictions that hinder the
development of an economic model capable of sustaining the
requisite investments in ICT in Cuba, and the corresponding consumer
demand for the services. A piecemeal approach will simply not do
the job.

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Mexico Border TI Neg

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Border Infrastructure
Negative

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Topicality

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1NC NADB T-Countries

1. Interpretation the affirmative plan must substantially
increase economic engagement toward Cuba, Mexico or
Venezuela.
NFHS 2013 (2013-14 NFHS Policy Debate Topic Announcement, National
Federation of State High School Associations,
http://www.nfhs.org/content.aspx?id=8374, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Resolved: The United States federal government should
substantially increase its economic engagement toward Cuba,
Mexico or Venezuela.
AND, Mexico is the country in southern North America.

AHD 13 American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, Mexico,
http://education.yahoo.com/reference/dictionary/entry/Mexico
Mexico (mks-k) KEY A country of south-central North America . Southern Mexico
was the site of various advanced civilizations beginning with the Olmec and including the Maya, Zapotec, Toltec, Mixtec,
and Aztec cultures. Mexico was conquered by Corts in 1521 and held by the Spanish until 1821. The Treaty of Guadalupe
Hidalgo that ended the Mexican War (1846-1848) awarded all lands north of the Rio Grande to the United States. Mexico
City is the capital and the largest city. Population: 104,000,000.
2. Violation NAD-Bank also develops policies with

Canada.
US Legal no date (US Legal Definitions, Official American Bar
Association legal definition website, North American Development Bank Law

& Legal Definition, http://definitions.uslegal.com/n/north-americandevelopment-bank/, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
North American Development Bank is a binational financial
institution capitalized and governed equally by the United States of America and Mexico. It
provides loans to communities in the United States which suffer economically from North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) either through job losses or having to pay for environmental cleanups along the
borders of Mexico and Canada.
It also finance environmental projects certified by the Border
Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC). North American Development Bank is also known as NAD-Bank.

File Title
582
Keerthi Gondi
3. Extra topicality is a voting Issue

First, Ground the topic is written to provide negative
ground isolated from the affirmative extra T allows the
affirmative to co-opt resolution ground, even solvency
arguments radically disrupt the balance of ground.
Second, Limits and Predictability their aff justifies any
topical plan plus anything else. You can have a plan to
increase economic engagement with Mexico and provide
funding to Japans military, and it would be topical. That
explodes research burden and makes fairness and
predictability impossible.
Third, Potential abuse specifically on this violation, it is
about what they justify. Potential abuse must be a voter
in addition to in-round abuse. It prevents future abuse.

File Title
583
Keerthi Gondi
1NC NADB T-Environment

1. Interpretation - Economic engagement is limited to
expanding economic ties
elik 11 Arda Can elik, Masters Degree in Politics and International
Studies from Uppsala University, Economic Sanctions and Engagement

Policies, p. 11
Introduction Economic engagement policies are strategic integration
behaviour which involves with the target state. Engagement policies
differ from other tools in Economic Diplomacy. They target to
deepen the economic relations to create economic intersection,
interconnectness, and mutual dependence and finally seeks
economic interdependence. This interdependence serves the sender stale to change the
political behaviour of target stale. However they cannot be counted as carrots or inducement tools, they
focus on long term strategic goals and they are not restricted with short term policy changes.
(Kahler&Kastner,2006) They can be unconditional and focus on creating greater economic benefits for both
parties. Economic engagement targets to seek deeper economic linkages via promoting institutionalized
mutual trade thus mentioned interdependence creates two major concepts. Firstly it builds strong trade
partnership to avoid possible militarized and non militarized conflicts. Secondly it gives a leeway lo
Kahler
and Kastner define the engagement policies as follows "It is a policy
of deliberate expanding economic ties with and adversary in order
to change the behaviour of target state and improve bilateral
relations ".(p523-abstact). It is an intentional economic strategy that expects bigger benefits such as
perceive the international political atmosphere from the same and harmonized perspective.
long term economic gains and more importantly; political gains. The main idea behind the engagement
motivation is stated by Rosecrance (1977) in a way that " the direct and positive linkage of interests of
stales where a change in the position of one state affects the position of others in the same direction.
AND, economic engagement is only tangible trade and

financial benefits.
Haass 00 Richard Haass & Meghan OSullivan, Senior Fellows in the
Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar:

Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 5-6
Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from
which to choose. Economic engagement might offer tangible
incentives such as export credits, investment insurance or promotion,
access to technology, loans, and economic aid.2 Other equally useful economic
incentives involve the removal of penalties, whether they be trade
embargoes, investment bans, or high tariffs that have impeded economic relations
between the United States and the target country. In addition, facilitated entry into the
global economic arena and the institutions that govern it rank among the
most potent incentives in todays global market.
2. Violation NAD-Bank is purely for environmental

purposes.
NADBank 8/30/13 (North American Development Bank, SUMMARY OF
PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ACTIVITIES ACTIVE PROJECTS,
http://www.nadb.org/pdfs/FreqUpdates/ProjectMatrix.pdf, Keerthi, Acc
11/9/13)

File Title
584
Keerthi Gondi
The N orth A merican D evelopment Bank (NADB) provides financing for

infrastructure projects that enhance the environmental condition of
the U.S.-Mexico border region. NADB works closely with its sister institution,
the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC), to help border
communities develop and finance affordable, self-sustaining projects with broad community support. Each project must
pass through a public participation and certification process performed by BECC in order to be eligible for financing from
NADB.
3. Voting Issue:
First, Ground all of our links are about economic
engagement. They can spike out of our links by just
saying they are environmental policy. We cant have
tradeoff links about economics, and our capitalism
arguments go away.s That hurts education.
Second, Limits allowing their aff creates a whole other
topic to prepare for about the environment. That explodes
negative research burden and destroys predictability. It
justifies affs like cooperate with Venezuela on Amazon
biodiversity or negotiating climate treaties with Mexico.
That kills fairness.

File Title
585
Keerthi Gondi
2NC T-Environment Violation

NAD Bank can only address environmental issues
Gallagher, 09 (Kevin P., November, professor at Boston University IR Department and an expert
on: Economic Development, Trade and Investment Policy, Boston Universitys The Frederick S. Pardee
Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, The Future of North American Trade Policy: Lessons from
NAFTA)
The NADBANK was originally proposed by prominent economists Albert Fishlow, Sherman Robinson, and
Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda.15 The idea was that the institution would serve as a regional development and
The NADBANK
was indeed established under NAFTA, but in the end only to address
adjustment assistance bank to help harmonize development in North America.
environmental problems in the U.S.-Mexico border. The organization

was long plagued by difficulties and reformed by the Bush and Fox
administrations in 2001, but only to strengthen its mandate to U.S.Mexico border environmental issues. A revitalized NADBANK would go back to its
originally proposed idea of being a development bank and adjustment
assistance facilitator, modeled after the structural funds under European economic integration and Brazils
the NADBANK would have to be

recapitalized by NAFTA governments and be able to sell bonds and
take equity stakes in order to raise more funds when needed as well.
national development bank, (BNDES). To that end,
In relation to the environment in all three NAFTA countries, a revitalized NADBANK would have to: Support
small scale, sustainable agriculture initiatives. Provide loans for small- and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) for innovation and to comply with nvironmental regulations. Provide loans and financing support for
public infrastructure, renewable energy development, and environmental cleanup projects. Support publicprivate partnerships for environment-related research and development activities. Develop and maintain
an active research team that examines the environment and development aspects of the NAFTA countries
and bank activities.

File Title
Politics Link
586
Keerthi Gondi

File Title
587
Keerthi Gondi
NAD-Bank
NAD-Bank reform is politically divisive empirics prove.
Leising 12 (Matthew Leising, BA from Berkey University in PS, EL PASO: NADBANK,
http://journalism.berkeley.edu/projects/border/elpasonadbank.html, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
That bank is the North American Development Bank (NADBank). Along with its sister institution, the Border
was created
under intense political pressure and maneuvering in 1993 when the
Clinton Administration was pushing through its plan for NAFTA. To muster enough votes
to pass the treaty, which was originally negotiated under the Bush Administration, President Clinton had to not
only convince Republicans to side with a president they clearly did not
trust, but also had to persuade the historically pro-labor and
environmentally conscious Democrats in Congress that the treaty wouldn't drain
Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC), headquartered in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, NADBank
American manufacturing jobs and ruin the environment in the process . In the end, Clinton succeeded, even surpassing
the number of votes needed by 34, when NAFTA - along with an environmental and labor side agreement - was passed on
November 17, 1993 .

File Title
588
Keerthi Gondi
Border TI

File Title
589
Keerthi Gondi
Inherency

File Title
590
Keerthi Gondi
1NC Border TI Non-Inherent

The status quo solves the aff new projects
GAO July 24th, 2013- US Government Accountability Office (GAO, U.S.MEXICO BORDER: CBP Action Needed to Improve Wait Time Data and
Measure Outcomes of Trade Facilitation Efforts, 6/24/13,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-603)
Projects along the Southwest Border: Tornillo-Guadalupe, Land Port
of Entry , Modernization Project : The project is to replace and
expand the existing facility including adding two commercial lanes
capacity to the currently passenger-only port. Tornillo: Guadalupe, Texas, GSA
Federal Buildings, Fund$95.9 million, CBP Appropriations$14.3 million $79.6 million a Summer 2013
Nogales WestMariposa
Land Port of Entry Modernization Project: This

project is to replace and expand the existing facility, including major
outbound infrastructure improvements and adding four commercial
inspection lanes. Nogales West: Mariposa, Arizona GSA Federal Buildings Fund$9.8 million
(design), GSA ARRA$182.7 million, CBP ARRA Savings$10.5 million, CBP Appropriations$36.5 million
Santa Teresa Land Port of Entry Lane Expansion

Project: This project is to expand the facility, including an additional
commercial processing lane. Santa Teresa, New Mexico ARRA Savings$10 million CBP
$239.5 million Fall 2014
Reimbursable Work Authorization$1.3 million $11.3 million February 2013. Eagle Pass II.
Commercial Lane Realignment Project The project is to improve the

curvature of the two existing commercial lanes to facilitate traffic
flow and increase commercial processing capacity. Eagle Pass II, Texas City of
Eagle Pass$6.6 million, CBP Repairs & Alterations budget$0.4 Million $7 million Summer to fall 2013
The aff is not inherent- projects exist in the squo, even if

they dont, critical ones are being done
GAO July 24th, 2013- US Government Accountability Office (GAO, U.S.-
MEXICO BORDER: CBP Action Needed to Improve Wait Time Data and
Measure Outcomes of Trade Facilitation Efforts, 6/24/13,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-603)
CBP officials at headquarters and in the field cited various ways they
are working to address infrastructure limitations given challenges
caused by budgetary and geographic constraints, among others . In
regard to budgetary constraints, CBP and GSA officials stated that GSA has not received funding to
conduct additional expansion projects in the last 2 fiscal years, and as a result, they have not been able to
GSA
officials reported that the agency has used alternative funding
sources to pay for prioritized infrastructure projects. For example, GSA and
CBP officials reported using funds from the city of Laredo to support the expansion
of primary inspection lanes at the World Trade Bridge crossing in
2011. In regard to geographic constraints, port officials at the Bridge of the Americas stated that the
execute new projects to address infrastructure needs at land ports of entry on the southwest border.
urban area around that crossing limits opportunities to expand the crossings footprint. Officials with the
city of El Paso told us that they are promoting a plan to divert all commercial traffic to the nearby Ysleta
crossing because it has greater capacity to process commercial traffic and a larger footprint that can
accommodate future expansion. CBP field office and port officials stated that they support this plan. In
another example, CBP officials at headquarters and in the field reported participating in binational working
groups in an effort to address the infrastructure limitations of ports of entry along the southwest border.
For example, senior CBP officials reported participating in the U.S.-Mexico Joint Working Committee to
develop regional master plans to better ensure the development of a well coordinated land transportation
and infrastructure planning process along the border.

File Title
591
Keerthi Gondi

File Title
592
Keerthi Gondi
1NC NADBank Non-Inherent

NAD-bank doesnt need reform its funding tons of
projects right now.
NADBank 8/30/13 (North American Development Bank, SUMMARY OF
PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ACTIVITIES ACTIVE PROJECTS,

http://www.nadb.org/pdfs/FreqUpdates/ProjectMatrix.pdf, Keerthi, Acc
11/9/13)
The N orth A merican D evelopment Bank (NADB) provides financing for infrastructure
projects that enhance the environmental condition of the U.S.-Mexico border region. NADB works closely with its sister institution, the
Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC), to help border communities develop and finance affordable, self-sustaining projects with
broad community support. Each project must pass through a public participation and certification process performed by BECC in order to be
eligible for financing from NADB.
In the third quarter of 2013, NADB had 72 active
projects in various stages of project implementation .1 A total of

US$954.7 million in loans and grants has been contracted to help finance those
projects, and more than 66% of those funds have already been disbursed
to project sponsors. Five projects were completed during the period. A breakdown of NADB
financing by program for the active projects is shown in the table below. NADB Funding by Program for Active Projects (U.S. Dollars) * Some
projects have both a loan and a BEIF grant. Likewise, a loan or grant may cover more than one project. ** BEIF: EPA-funded grant program
that offers financing for the implementation of municipal drinking water and wastewater infrastructure projects. ** NADB-funded grant
programs include the Community Assistance Program (CAP), the Solid Waste Environmental Program (SWEP) and the Water Conservation
To date, NADB has contracted a cumulative total of

approximately US$2.20 billion in loans and grants to help finance
189 certified projects estimated to cost a total of US$5.58 billion to build. Of that amount, 86% has
been disbursed to project sponsors for the implementation of 172 projects. An additional US$92.1 million
Investment Fund (WCIF).
in loans and grants has been approved to support 11 projects, for which financing agreements are in development. Of the 189 projects
receiving financing from the Bank, 121 have completed construction, as well as all financing activity, except for the amortization of loans.

File Title
593
Keerthi Gondi
2NC Inherency Voting Issue

interpretations.
2- Its a stock issue- theres no jurisdiction for a noninherent affirmative.
occurred.
explodes our research burden which hurts fairness.

File Title
2NC NAD-Bank Now
594
Keerthi Gondi

File Title
595
Keerthi Gondi
Solvency

File Title
596
Keerthi Gondi
1NC Solvency NAD-Bank Infrastructure

Turn - NAD-Bank structurally fails and makes costs for
repairing the border higher.
Ruiz 11 (Mauro F. Ruiz, J.D., updated 2011, published in 1997, The North
American Development Bank: For Cleanup or Profit?, Academic journal

article from Houston Journal of International Law, Vol. 20, No. 3,
http://www.questia.com/library/journal/1G1-21206813/the-north-americandevelopment-bank-for-cleanup-or, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
The North American Development Bank (NADBank or the Bank),(1) one of two joint U.S.Mexico institutions, is credited with calming the fears of public interest organizations(2) that oppose
the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and with ensuring passage of the
trade agreement.(3) Among the groups questioning NAFTA's effects, the environmental lobby claimed
that NAFTA would increase health and safety concerns, escalate environmental degradation,
and destroy existing infrastructure throughout the U.S.-Mexico border region.(4) Created primarily to
address economic development and environmental contamination,
the Bank's structure, guidelines, and focus suggest that border
cleanup measures are secondary to profit oriented lending.(5) One thing is
certain: the Bank's failure to fulfill the Clinton Administration's promises will indirectly
perpetuate environmental degradation and increase the already
costly border cleanup, estimated to be in the billions of dollars.(6) As of August 1996, three years after
its inception, the Bank's funding mechanisms had failed to finance any
environmental infrastructure projects by the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission (BECC).(7)
In a region where public investment lagged and the border
population increased over sixty percent in ten years,(8) NADBank
project financing guidelines are unclear, impractical,(9) and appear to
represent nothing more than political cover for the U.S. and Mexican
governments.(10)
NADB interest rates are too high to attract private

investors.
Leising 12 (Matthew Leising, BA from Berkey University in PS, EL PASO: NADBANK,
http://journalism.berkeley.edu/projects/border/elpasonadbank.html, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
Congress
said 'OK, let's really not make [NADBank] like other development
banks and give money away below interest rates [like they do ],'" Spalding
"We argued so hard on this issue of not making [NADBank and BECC] like other development banks,
said. As such, Congress decided that NADBank loans could only be given at interest rates of at least 1% above the prime
In trying to make NADBank self-sustaining, possibly even profitable,

Congress doomed the bank's effectiveness since poor border
communities like Anapra cannot afford that high an interest rate. " It
rate.
created the seeds of failure for the institutions ," Spalding said bluntly. "The truth is,
right now the money is not going to the projects because the bank has
an interest rate that is just not possible," said Carlos Rincon, the US/Mexico environmental
projects director for pro-NAFTA Environmental Defense (formerly the Environmental Defense Fund). Rincon says that lower
interest rates on loans for water projects can be obtained through state agencies such as the Texas Water Development
Board. Yet this was part of the reasoning in Congress when it approved the interest rates for NADBank loans - it not only
wanted to make the bank self sustaining, it also didn't want NADBank loans to undercut private or state banks with lowerthan-market rates .

File Title
597
Keerthi Gondi
No interagency cooperation means serial policy failure.

Wilson et al. May 2013 (The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico
Border, Wilson Center Mexico Institute, Authors- (Erik Lee- associate director at the North American Center for
Transborder Studies, MA in Latin American Studies at UCSD; Christopher Wilson- Associate at the Mexico Institute of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, MA in international affairs at American University; Francisco LaraValencia- Associate Professor at the School of Transborder Studies at ASU school of geographical sciences and urban
planning, PhD in urban planning from UMich, MA in regional development from El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico;
Carlos de la Parra Renteria- professor at El Colegio de la Fontera Norte in Mexico in the department of urban studies and
environment, PhD in environmental planning from UMich; Rick Van Schoik- director of the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, BA in oceanography and engineer at the US Naval Academy, post
graduate studies at in philanthropy and development at Tufts University; Kristofer Patron-Soberano- Research Assistant at
Colegio de la Fontera Norte [The College of the Northern Border]; Eric L. Olson- Associate Director of the Latin American
Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, American University and B.A., History and
Secondary Education, Trinity College; Andrew Selee- Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute
at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Ph.D. in Policy Studies from the University of Maryland, M.A. in Latin American Studies from
the University of California, B.A. in Latin American Studies from Washington University in St. Louis), State of the Border
Report sponsored by the Border Research Partnership,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf) KTG
In such an environment, cooperative
binational solutions are often the only

solutions. Unfortunately, an institutional void exists that makes
managing such complex interaction across the U.S.-Mexico border
particularly challenging. While the U.S. State Department and
Mexicos Foreign Ministry formally manage federal government-togovernment interaction, a large number of federal agencies, state
and local governments also have a significant say in how the border is run.
Chief among these is the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS),
formed in the wake of the events of September 11, 2001 to better organize U.S. efforts to defend itself
DHS 5 The State of the Border Report in border interaction

creation represented both a securitization of the
from terrorist attacks. The importance of

cannot be overstated, and its
border, which made the border thicker for both illicit and legitimate traffic, but also an effort to better
coordinate border management. In- teragency coordination can also be difficult.
Adding to this is the large number of state agencies as well as local
governments that must conduct international work with their
counterparts in the U.S. or Mexico. While there are formal and de facto agencies that
manage our border interactions, no binational organization exists to
coordinate efforts across areas such as those examined in this
volume: quality of life, trade, security and environment.
The planning processes suck

A key component of how the U.S.-Mexico border functions to facilitate trade

has to do with transportation planning. In the absence of strong and coordinated planning,
infrastructure investments on one side of the border or in one region
can simply feed traffic into a bottleneck in another area. This
process is largely managed by the Joint Working Committee on Transportation Planning (JWC), a binational
entity chaired by the two countries transportation agencies but including representatives from many federal agencies and state departments

File Title
598
Keerthi Gondi
border communities felt themselves increasingly affected by decisions made in Washington and
insistence on being included in these discussions led to the
regional border master plan process, in which state DOTs lead
stakeholder discussions on border infrastructure priorities. While this process makes
sense from a U.S. perspective (in the absence of a national transportation plan, state DOTs essentially manage
and spend federal transportation dollars), this process is somewhat of a mismatch for
Mexicos more centralized political system. The system seems to work better in certain crossof transportation. As
Mexico City, their
border communities than others, as is seen with California and Baja Californias award-winning master plan. There is no simple answer to the
complex challenge of coordinating border planning and management, but a few key ingredients for success can be identified. First,
border stakeholders need to be at the tableborder experts in Washington and Mexico City are
no substitute for those living the implications of policy on a daily basis. Nonetheless, a strong federal role is important. Bor- der communities
often work together, but they also compete to attract federal resources and trade flows. The federal agencies are well placed to analyze and
ross-border
collaboration is vital. To strengthen regional competitiveness and
security, we need regional coordination.
balance competing needs, especially in dialogue with border communities. Finally, and hopefully obviously, c
More staffing, security, and travelling program integration

is needed, not investment.
Unfortunately,
the infrastructure and capacity of the ports of entry to process
goods and individuals entering the United States has not kept pace with the expansion of
bilateral trade or the population growth of the border region. Instead, the need for greater border security
following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 led to a thickening of the border, dividing the twin cities that
characterize the region and adding costly, long and unpredictable wait times for commercial and personal
crossers alike. Congestion acts as a drag on the competitiveness of the region and of the United States and
Mexico in their entirety.
Solutions are needed that strengthen both border
security and efficiency at the same time. The development of the 21st Century Border initiative by
the Obama and Calderon administrations has yielded some advances in this direction, but the efforts need
Moderate
investments to update infrastructure and to fully staff the ports of
entry are certainly needed, as long lines and overworked staff promote
neither efficiency nor security. But in a time of tight federal budgets, asking for
more resources cannot be the only answer. Strategic efforts that do more with less,
improving efficiency and reducing congestion, are also needed. Trusted traveler and
shipper programs (i.e. SENTRI, FAST, C-TPAT, Global Entry) allow vetted, low-risk
individuals and shipments expedited passage across the border. Improving these programs and significantly expanding enrollment
could increase throughput with minimal investments in
infrastructure and staffingall while strengthening security by giving border officials more
to be redoubled. A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 60
time to focus on unknown and potentially dangerous individuals and shipments.

File Title
599
Keerthi Gondi
1NC Solvency Border Infrastructure (General)

No interagency cooperation means serial policy failure.
In such an environment, cooperative
binational solutions are often the only

solutions. Unfortunately, an institutional void exists that makes
managing such complex interaction across the U.S.-Mexico border
particularly challenging. While the U.S. State Department and
Mexicos Foreign Ministry formally manage federal government-togovernment interaction, a large number of federal agencies, state
and local governments also have a significant say in how the border is run.
Chief among these is the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS),
formed in the wake of the events of September 11, 2001 to better organize U.S. efforts to defend itself
DHS 5 The State of the Border Report in border interaction

creation represented both a securitization of the
from terrorist attacks. The importance of

cannot be overstated, and its
border, which made the border thicker for both illicit and legitimate traffic, but also an effort to better
coordinate border management. In- teragency coordination can also be difficult.
Adding to this is the large number of state agencies as well as local
governments that must conduct international work with their
counterparts in the U.S. or Mexico. While there are formal and de facto agencies that
manage our border interactions, no binational organization exists to
coordinate efforts across areas such as those examined in this
volume: quality of life, trade, security and environment.
The planning processes suck

A key component of how the U.S.-Mexico border functions to facilitate trade

has to do with transportation planning. In the absence of strong and coordinated planning,

File Title
600
Keerthi Gondi
infrastructure investments on one side of the border or in one region

can simply feed traffic into a bottleneck in another area. This
process is largely managed by the Joint Working Committee on Transportation Planning (JWC), a binational
entity chaired by the two countries transportation agencies but including representatives from many federal agencies and state departments
border communities felt themselves increasingly affected by decisions made in Washington and
Mexico City, their insistence on being included in these discussions led to the
regional border master plan process, in which state DOTs lead
stakeholder discussions on border infrastructure priorities. While this process makes
sense from a U.S. perspective (in the absence of a national transportation plan, state DOTs essentially manage
and spend federal transportation dollars), this process is somewhat of a mismatch for
Mexicos more centralized political system. The system seems to work better in certain crossof transportation. As
border communities than others, as is seen with California and Baja Californias award-winning master plan. There is no simple answer to the
complex challenge of coordinating border planning and management, but a few key ingredients for success can be identified. First,
border stakeholders need to be at the tableborder experts in Washington and Mexico City are
no substitute for those living the implications of policy on a daily basis. Nonetheless, a strong federal role is important. Bor- der communities
often work together, but they also compete to attract federal resources and trade flows. The federal agencies are well placed to analyze and
ross-border
collaboration is vital. To strengthen regional competitiveness and
security, we need regional coordination.
balance competing needs, especially in dialogue with border communities. Finally, and hopefully obviously, c
Security policies hinder border sustainability.

Security in either country does not depend solely on what happens

at the border. Rather, the more the two governments can push key
security processes away from the border, the better. For example, disrupting
illegal bulk cash transfers or firearms trafficking can be done more effectively through investigations and
Much
work remains to be done in strengthening overall law enforcement
capacity in both countries to challenge cross-border trafficking and
criminal activity. For example, fully implementing justice reform and advancing police prointelligence operations away from the border than via random vehicle checks at the border.
fessionalization in Mexico, as well as disrupting the organizations engaged in migrant smuggling, human
trafficking and moving illicit substances northward 91 The State of the Border Report into the United
States would be important steps forward. Interestingly, border states such as Chihuahua and Baja
California stand out for their implementation of justice reform and are in the vanguard of this
fundamental change. In addition, the United States needs to demonstrate greater political courage and
creativity to fulfill its commitments to reduce the demand for illegal drugs at home and disrupt the flow of
Additionally,
progress in modernizing and professionalizing Mexicos multiple
police forces and improving public trust in law enforcement will be
critical to creating a safer U.S.-Mexico border region. There is room
for much more improvement at all levels of law enforcement ,
weapons and money that exacerbate the violence associated with drug trafficking.
particularly at the state and municipal levels. Achieving the delicate balance between federal and local
needs, and economic versus security concerns, will require greater patience in the form of a more realistic
(longer) policy implementation timeline, improved leadership, and creative thinking by all parties.

File Title
601
Keerthi Gondi
More staffing, security, and travelling program integration

is needed, not investment.
Unfortunately,
the infrastructure and capacity of the ports of entry to process
goods and individuals entering the United States has not kept pace with the expansion of
bilateral trade or the population growth of the border region. Instead, the need for greater border security
following the terrorist attacks of 9/11 led to a thickening of the border, dividing the twin cities that
characterize the region and adding costly, long and unpredictable wait times for commercial and personal
crossers alike. Congestion acts as a drag on the competitiveness of the region and of the United States and
Solutions are needed that strengthen both border

security and efficiency at the same time. The development of the 21st Century Border initiative by
Mexico in their entirety.
the Obama and Calderon administrations has yielded some advances in this direction, but the efforts need
Moderate
investments to update infrastructure and to fully staff the ports of
entry are certainly needed, as long lines and overworked staff promote
neither efficiency nor security. But in a time of tight federal budgets, asking for
more resources cannot be the only answer. Strategic efforts that do more with less,
improving efficiency and reducing congestion, are also needed. Trusted traveler and
shipper programs (i.e. SENTRI, FAST, C-TPAT, Global Entry) allow vetted, low-risk
individuals and shipments expedited passage across the border. Improving these programs and significantly expanding enrollment
could increase throughput with minimal investments in
infrastructure and staffingall while strengthening security by giving border officials more
to be redoubled. A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 60
time to focus on unknown and potentially dangerous individuals and shipments.

File Title
602
Keerthi Gondi
2NC
US over-arching domestic and foreign policy makes
Mexico policy impossible.
Though more often characterized as a source of security threats and

vulnerabilities, the U.S.-Mexico border is also a modern frontier with
immense opportunities. The joining together and in many ways overlapping of two great countries and
societies has created a region fertile with business opportunities, rich in culture, and full of delicate natural
Many of the unique opportunities presented by the border

remain untapped, hidden away from the nations financial centers and capitals. But as those
that live and work in the region know, the state of the border is stronger than most realize . For some
time, this poorly understood area has needed a comprehensive and
accessible yet careful and evidence-driven analysis for policymakers
and citizens alike. There is a traditional notion in foreign relations
that politics stops at the waters edge, that domestic politics are
distinct from foreign policy. While this concept can be contradicted with cases from
around the world, the complex and intense mix of local, state, national and
international constituencies that have vested interests in the U.S.Mexico border may comprise the best counterexample of all.
Managing the U.S.-Mexico border is extraordinarily difficult and
made more so by its intense mix of international and domestic
policy issues. This is particularly true in the area of security. In a post-9/11 and post-Great
treasures.
Recession context, lawmakers and law enforcement officials in both countries Managing the U.S.-Mexico
border is extraordinarily difficult and made more so by its intense mix of international and domestic policy
issues. A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 4 have been asked to make the border
efficient and user-friendly for legitimate travelers and impenetrable for those with more nefarious
objectives. The task is made more complicated by the fact that migration, drugs and border security are
among the most politically charged issues in both countries while the U.S. and Mexican economies depend
heavily on binational trade. This enormous and poorly understood region presents both nations with policy
challenges so vexing that they tend to obscure and overshadow areas of far more positive and even
impressive interaction and collaboration.
Border staff is a huge problem


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Since 9/11 and the increase in security at our land ports of entry with
Mexico, one of the major points of contention between border
communities, regional interest groups and Washington has concerned staffing levels
and their effects on local economies. While the number of U.S.
Border Patrol agents has more than doubled over the past decade, Office of Field
Operations (blue-uniformed CBP Officers that staff the ports of entry) staffing has remained
relatively stable (see Figure 6). In 2007, the U.S. Congress began to fund the vigilance of the
areas between the POEs at a higher level than the POEs themselves. This is surprising given
the increase in bilateral trade, the significant increases in border wait times since 9/11,
and evidence that appears to suggest that the POEs, rather than the areas between them, are a more
likely crossing point for drugs and dangerous individuals (see the chapter on border security). The U.S.
Government Accountability Office has suggested that the levels of

staffing and training for CBP Officers are each lacking.11 Border
community interest groups often point to the remarkable increase in
U.S. Border Patrol staffing, infrastructure and implementation of technology and
critique the relatively little innovation they see at the ports.
Educational standards are low which reduces deficits in

performance.
In
addition to education, human capital formation is also influenced

by the quantity and quality of the cultural services offered by a region to its
residents. Cultural services encompass programs and activities dedicated to enriching the lives of the local population
by providing opportunities to experience the arts, knowledge, traditions, ecology, and other essential cultural
experiences. To measure the cultural offerings in the border region we looked at the number of cultural workers as well
as the number of people employed in establishments dedicated to the distribution of information and cultural products
relative to the regions general population. The first indicator was equal to 65 cultural workers per 10,000 residents in U.S.
border counties, while the corresponding value in Mexican municipalities was 15.9 cultural workers per 10,000 residents.
Similarly, the second indicator showed 84 people working in the distribution of information and cultural products industry
per 10,000 residents in U.S. border counties versus 37.5 in Mexican municipalities. In relation to their corresponding
Overall,
the border region has made significant progress in improving many of the key
indicators in education and culture during the last decade. However, for the longer term, it will
be essential to expand resource allocation to education for the
longer term, it will be essential to expand resource allocation to
education and cultural services on both sides of the border to catch
up and eliminate chronic deficits in capacity and performance . A
states, border counties are more likely to be worse while Mexican municipalities tend to be slightly better.
Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border 42 and cultural services on both sides of the border to catch up and
Closing the gap between Mexico and

the U.S. will require an additional effort to use existing budgets and
eliminate chronic deficits in capacity and performance.

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human resources with greater efficiency, innovation and
accountability.
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2NC NADB Fails

Framing Argument they say that NADB only does
environmentally friendly programs. If thats true, then
they cant fund infrastructure because it hurts border
ecology.
Rosenblum, 12 (Marc, January 6, Specialist in Immigration Policy, Congressional Research
Service, Border Security: Immigration Enforcement Between Ports of Entry,)
the deployment of border enforcement personnel and

infrastructure also entails a number of costs at the local level. First, the
construction of fencing, roads, and other tactical infrastructure may
damage border-area ecosystems. These environmental considerations may be
especially important because much of the border runs through
remote and environmentally sensitive areas.146 For this reason, even when
On the other hand,
accounting for the possible environmental benefits of reduced illegal border flows, some
environmental groups have opposed border infrastructure projects

because they threaten rare and endangered species as well as other
wildlife by damaging ecosystems and restricting the movement of
animals, and because surveillance towers and artificial night lighting have detrimental effects on
migrant birds.147

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Keerthi Gondi

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1nc trade fl
<UQ updates>
Trade with Mexico isnt key to the economy its a small
percentage of the GDP and their authors conflate
correlation with causation
Villarreal 12 M. Angeles Villarreal, Specialist in International Trade and
Finance (M. Angeles Villarreal, Congressional Research Service, 08-09-2012,

U.S.-Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf, Accessed 08-02-2013 | AK)
Effects on the U.S. Economy
The overall effect of NAFTA on the U.S. economy has been relatively
small , primarily because two-way trade with Mexico amounts to less than
3% of U.S. GDP . Thus, any changes in trade patterns with Mexico
would not be expected to be significant in relation to the overall
U.S. economy. In some sectors, however, trade-related effects could be more significant, especially
in those industries that were more exposed to the removal of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers, such as
the textile and apparel, and automotive industries. Since NAFTA, the automotive, textile, and apparel
industries have experienced some of the more noteworthy changes in trading patterns, which may also
have affected U.S. employment in these industries. U.S. trade with Mexico has increased considerably
more than U.S. trade with other countries, and Mexico has become a more significant trading partner with
the United States since NAFTA implementation. In the automotive industry, the industry comprising the
NAFTA provisions consisted of a phased

elimination of tariffs, the gradual removal of many non-tariff barriers
to trade including rules of origin provisions, enhanced protection of intellectual property rights, less
restrictive government procurement practices, and the elimination of performance
requirements on investors from other NAFTA countries. These
provisions may have accelerated the ongoing trade patterns between the
United States and Mexico. Because the United States and Canada were already
highly integrated, most of the trade impacts on the U.S. automotive
industry relate to trade liberalization with Mexico . Prior to NAFTA Mexico had a
most U.S. trade with Mexico,
series of government decrees protecting the domestic auto sector by reserving the domestic automobile
market for domestically produced parts and vehicles. NAFTA established the removal of Mexicos restrictive
trade and investment policies and the elimination of U.S. tariffs on autos and auto parts. By 2006, the
automotive industry has had the highest dollar increase ($41 billion) in total U.S. trade with Mexico since
NAFTA passage. The main NAFTA provisions related to textiles and apparel consisted of eliminating tariffs
and quotas for goods coming from Mexico and eliminating Mexican tariffs on U.S. textile and apparel
products. To benefit from the free trade provision, goods were required to meet the rules of origin
provision, which assured that apparel products that were traded among the three NAFTA partners were
made of yarn and fabric made within the free trade area. The strict rules of origin provisions were meant to
ensure that U.S. textiles producers would continue to supply U.S. apparel companies that moved to Mexico.
Without a rules of origin provision, apparel companies would have been able to import low-cost fabrics
from countries such as China and export the final product to the United States under the free trade
While some U.S. industries may have benefitted from

increased demand for U.S. products in Mexico, creating new jobs,
other industries have experienced job losses . Data on the effects of
provision.51
trade liberalization with Mexico are limited and the effect on

specific sectors of the U.S. economy is difficult to quantify . Traderelated job gains and losses since NAFTA may have accelerated trends that were

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Keerthi Gondi
may not be totally attributable to the trade
agreement .52 Quantifying these effects is challenging because of

the other economic factors that influence trade and employment
levels. The devaluation of the Mexican peso in 1995 resulted in lower Mexican wages, which likely
provided an incentive for U.S. companies to move to lower their production costs. Trade-related
employment effects following NAFTA could have also resulted from the
lowering of trade barriers, and from the economic conditions in
Mexico and the United States influencing investment decisions and the demand for goods.
Delays and congestion only marginally affect the economy

a strong manufacturing sector and competitiveness
make regional growth inevitable
Wilson 13 (Christopher E. Wilson-- Associate at the Mexico Institute of the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. January 2013. A U.S.Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region.
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations
.pdf)
Mexico on the Move For years, Mexico oriented its economy toward the U.S. in
hopes of harnessing the growth of the worlds largest market . Now, at a
time when Mexico is growing around four percent a year faster than the United States Mexico can
Measures of the countrys

manufacturing sector are showing record-high growth, a clear sign
of strengthening competitiveness, and the country is building ever
more complex products like cars while leaving behind simpler industries like textiles and
shoemaking. Mexicos large and growing middle class has become an
increasingly important market for U.S. products and a force for many
of the economic and political reforms needed to unleash Mexicos full economic
potential.5 Altogether, Mexicos new government inherited a very solid
economic outlook despite the complex global environment, and the
recent passage of important labor and education reforms suggest
that the political gridlock that blocked the passage of several key
economic reforms in congress for years may have finally , if perhaps only
temporarily, become unstuck. Recent optimism regarding the Mexican
economy has attracted significant foreign investments, and the United
Nations expects FDI in Mexico in 2013 to reach a record $38 billion dollars.6 The Pea Nieto
administration currently looks poised to manage a period of robust
growth, and while global developments or a failure to measure up to high expectations could create
return the favor and provide a boost to the U.S. economy.
downward pressures on Mexicos growth, if Congress passes key energy, fiscal and accountability reforms,
After years of slow

growth (4.5 percent average annual growth from 2000-2008) and then a 17 percent drop between
2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession, U.S.-Mexico trade is now booming as
never before. It is growing faster than U.S. trade with China and
faster than during any period during the post NAFTA spurt in the
1990s.7 In the uncertain context of a global economy in search of a
new equilibriumEurope struggling, Chinas decelerating, a fiscal
reckoning in the United Statesthe bilateral economic relationship
stands out as a pillar of strength and perhaps a signpost on the
the outlook could become even brighter. A Boom in Bilateral Trade
path to a stronger economic region . U.S.-Mexico trade already

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supports more than six million U.S. jobs, and the return of
manufacturing competitiveness to the region, as well as the robust
growth of the Mexican economy, presents an opportunity to
significantly increase export supported employment should steps be
taken to support further advances in North American
competitiveness.8 The amazing thing is that this recent boom in
bilateral trade has occurred without a strategy.
Imagine what could be
achieved if the governments of the United States and Mexico ideally in conjunction with Canada
designed and implemented a comprehensive plan to improve the competitiveness of our region in the
global marketplace.
The 21st Century Border Management Joint Declaration

solves the aff ensures regional trade competitiveness
Figueroa et al., 11 Alejandro Figueroa, Policy and Research Analyst at the North American
Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, holds an M.B.A. from the W.P. Carey School of
Business at Arizona State University and a B.A. in Political Science and International Studies from Arizona
State University, et al., with Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder
Studies at Arizona State University, former assistant director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the
University of California-San Diego, holds an M.A. in Latin American Studies from the University of
California-San Diego, Rick Van Schoik, Director of the North American Center for Transborder Studies at
Arizona State University, former Navy Seal, former managing director of the Southwest Consortium for
Environmental Research and Policy, conducted post-graduate studies in philanthropy at Harvard Graduate
School of Education and in sustainable development at Tufts University, holds a B.A. in oceanography and
engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy, 2011,
http://21stcenturyborder.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/realizing-the-value-of-crossborder-trade-withmexico2.pdf, Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico
Ever since the enactment of the North American Free

NAFTA), and given the complementarity of the U.S. and Mexican economies, bilateral trade has
Trade is an important tool in policymakers economic development toolbox.

Trade Agreement (
grown exponentially , reaching a record high of nearly $400 billion in 2010. Mexico is now the third-ranked commercial
partner of the U.S. and the second largest market for U.S. exports. Mexico spent $163 billion on U.S. goods in 2010, and trade with Mexico
This is economic value that for many in the U.S. remains

hidden in plain sight. To provide a better idea of what this commercial partnership means to our country, U.S. sales to
sustains six million jobs in the U.S.
Mexico are larger than all U.S. exports to the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) combined, as well as all combined sales to Great
Britain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. Twenty-two states count Mexico as their No. 1 or No. 2 export market, and it is a top-five market
for 14 other states. American consumers and businesses import large quantities of jointly produced products and services from Mexico such as
for every dollar Mexico makes from

exporting to the U.S., it will in turn spend 50 cents on U.S. products
or services, which are a considerable benefit to our economy and demonstrates
automobiles, produce, and petroleum, just to name a few. Still,
the truly unique quality of this trade or joint production relationship. U.S.-Mexico Border Management: Building the Infrastructure for Future
Competitiveness Sharing a 2,000-mile long border with Mexico needs to be recognized as both a challenge and an opportunity. Though
our borders current infrastructure and capacity today reflect

the needs of a bygone era. While land ports of entry between the two nations were first envisioned to process the
improving,
legitimate crossing of people, goods and services across the border, security has taking an overwhelmingly dominant role in recent years,
With this in mind, in May of 2010 the U.S.

and Mexico signed the 21st Century Border Management Joint
hampering the ability of agencies to efficiently manage border traffic.
Declaration . Recognizing the importance of fostering the commercial relationship, both countries have
agreed to coordinate efforts to enhance economic competitiveness by
expediting lawful trade. The basic idea is that developing a modern and secure border
infrastructure will give an added boost to our regions safety and
competitiveness in the world.
Alt cause to integration tourism

Wilson et al. 13 (Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder
Studies, Christopher E. Wilson, M.A. in International Affairs at American University, Francisco Lara-Valencia,
Ph.D. (Urban Planning), Associate Professor of the School of Transborder Studies and Southwest Borderland
Scholar, Carlos A. de la Parra, PhD in environmental planning from the University of Michigan, Rick Van

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Keerthi Gondi
Schoik, assistant researcher at the Mexico Institute, Kristofer Patron-Soberano, economist at Universidad
Autonoma de Sinaloa, Eric L. Olson, Associate Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow
Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, Andrew Selee, Wilson Centers Vice President, Ph.D.
in Policy Studies, May 2013, The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico
Border, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf, Keerthi, Acc
11/12.13)
Tourism is another key economic driver for the region. Mexico is the
number one foreign destination for U.S. tourists, and Mexican tourists comprise
the second largest group of foreign visits to the United States each year (see Table 1 below).
Statistics on Mexican tourist spending in the U.S. are incomplete because of

the heavy usage of U.S. bank cards and cash by Mexican tourists, thereby making statistical analysis of
particularly challenging. Yet even with this incomplete picture,

Mexican tourist spending ranks fourth, according to U.S. Department of Commerce
this group of tourists
statistics from 2010.
Alt cause to border congestion tariffs and customs.

Wilson et al. 13 (Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder
Studies, Christopher E. Wilson, M.A. in International Affairs at American University, Francisco Lara-Valencia,
Ph.D. (Urban Planning), Associate Professor of the School of Transborder Studies and Southwest Borderland
Scholar, Carlos A. de la Parra, PhD in environmental planning from the University of Michigan, Rick Van
Schoik, assistant researcher at the Mexico Institute, Kristofer Patron-Soberano, economist at Universidad
Autonoma de Sinaloa, Eric L. Olson, Associate Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow
Wilson International Center, M.A., International Affairs, Andrew Selee, Wilson Centers Vice President, Ph.D.
in Policy Studies, May 2013, The State of The Border report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico
Border, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border_0.pdf, Keerthi, Acc
11/12.13)
In much the same way as long and unpredictable wait times add costs to cross-border transactions, the
significant documentation requirements faced by importers and

exporters to take advantage of the tariff preferences granted by
NAFTA actually can sometimes cut away at the very cost savings the
agreement was meant to provide. Rules of origin stipulate that only products from the
U.S., Canada or Mexico should get preferential treatment. Firms must therefore maintain detailed
at the very cost savings the agree-records regarding the source of
their products, sometimes including their parts and materials. This paperwork
burden can be particularly costly and act as a barrier to exporting for small and
medium-sized businesses.

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2nc trade inevitable

Regional growth is inevitable delays and congestion only
have a minimal effect on regional competitiveness the
plan is not necessary for economic growth thats Wilson
A. Stats prove trade is inevitable trends go neg
Villareal, 12 M. Angeles, Specialist in International Trade and Finance,
Congressional Research Service, 8/9,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf, U.S.-Mexico Economic
Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications
The United States is, by far, Mexicos leading partner in merchandise trade,
while Mexico is the United States third-largest trade partner after
China and Canada. Mexico ranks second among U.S. export markets after
Canada, and is the third-leading supplier of U.S. imports . U.S. trade with
Mexico increased rapidly since NAFTA entered into force in January 1994. U.S.
exports to Mexico increased from $54.8 billion in 1994 to $174.4 billion in 2011, an increase of 218%.
Imports from Mexico increased from $51.6 billion in 1994 to $285.4 billion in 2011, an increase of 453%
(see Figure 1). In services, the United States had a surplus of $2.2 billion in 2010 (the most recent
available data). U.S. exports in services to Mexico totaled $3.8 billion in 2010, while U.S. imports totaled
$1.6 billion.5 Total services trade with Mexico is approximately equal to 1% of total merchandise trade with
The trade balance with Mexico went from a surplus of $3.1 billion in
to a deficit of $99.5 billion in 2011. In 2011, 13% of total U.S. merchandise
exports were destined for Mexico and 12% of U.S. merchandise
imports came from Mexico. After the significant decrease in trade in 2009 that resulted from
the global economic downturn, U.S.-Mexico trade increased considerably in 2010
and 2011. Part of the increase in trade with Mexico may be attributed to
the increasing trade in energy. Crude petroleum oil accounts for 15% of
total U.S. imports from Mexico. The value of U.S. crude oil imports from Mexico increased
Mexico.
1994
over 500% since the 1990s, increasing from $6.3 billion in 1996 to $39.8 billion in 2011. Mexico is the
leading destination for U.S. exports in refined oil.
The value of U.S. refined oil exports
to Mexico increased by $18.4 billion from 1996 to 2011, from $1.0 billion to $19.4 billion,
approximately an 1800% increase.6 As stated previously, Mexico relies heavily on the
United States as an export market; this reliance has diminished very slightly over the
years. The percentage of Mexicos total exports going to the United States decreased from 83% in 1996 to
79% in 2011. Mexicos share of the U.S. market has lost ground since 2002. In 2003, China surpassed
Mexico as the second-leading supplier of U.S. imports. The United States is losing market share of Mexicos
import market. Between 1996 and 2011, the U.S. share of Mexicos total imports decreased from 75% to
50%. China is Mexicos second-leading source of imports.
B. Economic growth, trade agreements, and low transport

costs guarantee trade
Harrington 13 (Lisa Harrington--Associate Director at Supply Chain
Management Center, Robert H. Smith School of Business. January 2013. U.S.
Mexico Trade: Two-Way Traffic.
http://www.inboundlogistics.com/cms/article/us-mexico-trade-two-waytraffic/)
Rising wages in China, long transit times across the Pacific, and
fluctuating gas prices are fueling a nearshoring trend among
manufacturers serving the North American market, and Mexico is

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reaping the benefits. Companies are pouring billions of dollars into

new production capacityso much so that by 2019 the country
could surpass China as the United States' top trading partner , according
to Mexico outsourcing solutions provider The Offshore Group. Mexico has transitioned from
a simple assembler of products to "an exceedingly sophisticated
manufacturer," the Offshore Group states. The country's government has
aggressively sought free trade agreements with other nations to
foster growth. Mexico now has such agreements with 44 countries,
and some type of free trade policy affects 90 percent of its trade. Sourcing product from Mexico can be
especially advantageous for North American businesses. " Product
originating in Mexico
can reach North American customers in one week or less, versus 20
to 30 days from Asia," says Troy Ryley, managing director for Transplace Mexico, a division of
Frisco, Texas-based third-party logistics (3PL) provider Transplace. " This helps drive transport
costs down, increases speed to market, and reduces inventory cost.
It also simplifies forecasting." U.S.-Mexico cross-border trade is not without challenges,
however. Factors such as divergent regulatory regimes, capacity shortages, customs complexities,
The good news is,

improved service offerings and creative transport solutions help
streamline the border-crossing process and optimize capacity.
infrastructure issues, and congestion complicate the logistics picture.
C. Intermodal transportation makes trade seamless and

reliable
Harrington 13 (Lisa Harrington--Associate Director at Supply Chain
Management Center, Robert H. Smith School of Business. January 2013. U.S.
Mexico Trade: Two-Way Traffic.
http://www.inboundlogistics.com/cms/article/us-mexico-trade-two-waytraffic/)
Despite these issues, there is good news regarding cross-border logistics management. Intermodal
transportation, for example, is improving rapidly and becoming a
popular alternative to all-truck transportation. "Shippers now have
the option of more reliable, seamless intermodal service between
the United States and Mexico," says Val Noel, president of Pacer Cartage and executive
vice president of intermodal operations at Pacer International, a 3PL based in Dublin, Ohio. "Intermodal
These improvements to
intermodal service come as a result of equipment and connectivity
enhancements. Connectivity at the border between the forwarding
and receiving railroads has greatly improved, reducing or eliminating
the delays that once characterized this handoff. For example, Kansas City
offers a 15- to 20-percent cost advantage over truck."
Southern offers its TransBorder service, an all-rail service between the United States and Canada and
Shipments do
not stop at the border for customs clearance. Instead, they travel in bond,
clearing customs at interior Mexican origins and destinations. TransBorder offers a
through-rate structure that provides shippers a single price and bill
for ramp-to-ramp shipments to and from Mexico. Other important developments
major Mexican markets through collaboration with Kansas City Southern de Mxico.
that support improved intermodal service include: Automation and streamlined requirements create a
Mexico has taken steps to

improve customs clearance, in particular by expanding hours of operation. Traditionally,
more efficient and effective customs clearance process.
Mexico's customs service only operated Monday through Friday, with no weekend service. Now they work
Substantial funds have been invested in

Mexico's intermodal terminal infrastructureas well as in containers and chassis,
to clear cargo on the weekend.
technology for terminal reporting, and track-and-trace systems. Visibility is improving. "We receive more

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Keerthi Gondi
reliable and consistent information from ramp operators," reports Noel. "We are working with our trade
partners to provide real-time updates from the road so we can get closer to providing real-time door-todoor visibility."
D. FDI proves
Villareal, 12 M. Angeles, Specialist in International Trade and Finance,
Congressional Research Service, 8/9,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf, U.S.-Mexico Economic
Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been an integral part of the economic
relationship between the United States and Mexico since NAFTA implementation.
FDI consists of investments in real estate, manufacturing plants, and
retail facilities, in which the foreign investor owns 10% or more of the entity. The United States is
the largest source of FDI in Mexico . The stock of U.S. FDI increased from $17.0
billion in 1994 to $91.4 billion in 2011, a 440% increase (see Table 4). Mexican FDI in the United States is much lower than
U.S. investment in Mexico, with levels of Mexican FDI fluctuating over the last 10 years. In 2010, Mexican FDI in the United
The sharp rise in U.S. investment in Mexico since NAFTA is also a

result of the liberalization of Mexicos restrictions on foreign investment
in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. Prior to the mid-1980s, Mexico had a very protective
policy that restricted foreign investment and controlled the
exchange rate to encourage domestic growth, affecting the entire industrial sector. Mexicos trade
liberalization measures and economic reform in the late 1980s represented a
sharp shift in policy and helped bring in a steady increase of FDI
States totaled $12.6 billion (see Table 4).
flows
into Mexico. NAFTA provisions on foreign investment helped to lock in the reforms and increase investor
confidence. Under NAFTA, Mexico gave U.S. and Canadian investors nondiscriminatory treatment of their investments as
NAFTA may have encouraged U.S. FDI in Mexico by

increasing investor confidence, but much of the growth may have
occurred anyway because Mexico likely would have continued to liberalize its foreign investment laws with or
without the agreement. Nearly half of total FDI investment in Mexico is in the
well as investor protection.
manufacturing industry , of which the maquiladora industry forms a major part. (See Mexicos Exportthe industry has helped attract investment
from countries such as the United States that have a relatively large
amount of capital. For the United States, the industry is important because U.S. companies are able to locate
Oriented Assembly Plants below.) In Mexico,
their labor-intensive operations in Mexico and lower their labor costs in the overall production process.

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2nc trade status quo solves

The 2010 agreement and regional transportation planning
processes solve the aff
Figueroa et al, 11 Alejandro Figueroa, Policy and Research Analyst at the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, holds an M.B.A. from the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State
University and a B.A. in Political Science and International Studies from Arizona State University, et al., with Erik Lee,
Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, former assistant
director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California-San Diego, holds an M.A. in Latin American
Studies from the University of California-San Diego, Rick Van Schoik, Director of the North American Center for
Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, former Navy Seal, former managing director of the Southwest Consortium
for Environmental Research and Policy, conducted post-graduate studies in philanthropy at Harvard Graduate School of
Education and in sustainable development at Tufts University, holds a B.A. in oceanography and engineering from the U.S.
Naval Academy, 2011, http://21stcenturyborder.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/realizing-the-value-of-crossborder-trade-withmexico2.pdf, Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico | ADM
These delays are significant for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that American
firms are constantly attempting to reduce their inventory costs in an attempt to remain competitive. While
if
efficiently managed, our proximity to Mexico can provide American
firms with a constant and predictable flow of goods that may reduce inventory
costs and provide firms the ability to respond rapidly and effectively to sudden market changes. With
this fundamental fact in mind, in May of 2010 the U.S. and Mexico signed
the 21st Century Border Management Joint Declaration . Recognizing the
importance of fostering the commercial relationship, both countries have agreed to
coordinate efforts to enhance the economic competitiveness by
expediting lawful trade. The idea is that development of modern and
secure border infrastructure will give an added boost to our regions
competitiveness in the world and at the same time increase our access to a wider, more
importing from China to the U.S. may require a company to hold more than 100 days of inventory,
affordable and ever improving quality set of goods. Today more than 75,000 trucks (carrying close to 80 %
of our two-way trade) cross our border on a daily basis. That this much traffic is able to cross our
congested borders is due in part to important advances in border infrastructure in the last couple of years
One important policy development is

master planning processes for regional border infrastructure , which
have been initiated in conjunction with local border communities and
state governments. It is hoped that these regional processes will eventually
make the overall binational infrastructure-building process more
transparent, more robust and ultimately a better fit for two such powerful economies and next door
as new ports of entry have been opened.
neighbors.
NadBank and BECC border infrastructure financing

Aldridge, 13 James, Web Editor- San Antonio Business Journal, 5/10,
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2013/05/10/nadb-to-financenearly-45-million.html, NADB to finance nearly $45 million worth of U.S.Mexico border projects | ADM
The Border Environment Cooperation Commission and the North
American Development Bank (NADB) have approved $44.59 million in
financing for six new infrastructure projects along the U.S.-Mexico
border region. They are: A financing package for Lorean Energy Group to
develop a biogas project that will capture and use methane gas from the
municipal landfill in Saltillo, Coahuila. An urban infrastructure project for
Hermosillo, Sonora that will help reduce water, soil and air pollution in the
municipality. Two wastewater system improvement projects in Holtville,
Calif., that will benefit 6,000 residents. A water system improvement project

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in Sunland Park, N.M., A storm water infrastructure project in Santiago,

Nuevo Leon. San Antonio-based North American Development Bank is
funded and capitalized in equal parts by the U.S. and Mexican
governments for the purpose of financing environmental infrastructure
projects along the border. The Border Environment Cooperation
Commission works to certify projects for funding by NADB.
Status quo solves 21st Century Border Initiative.

Mexican Ministry 13 Trade and NAFTA Office of the Mexican Ministry
of Economy, 2013 (Border Infrastructure's Key Role in Expanding U.S.-Mexico

Trade, NAFTA Works: A Monthly Newsletter on NAFTA and Related Issues,
Volume 18, Issue 4, April, Available Online at http://www.naftamexico.net/wpcontent/uploads/2013/05/apr13.pdf, Accessed 07-26-2013, p. 2)
In order to enhance and also secure regional competitiveness, the
strength of both countries industrial capabilities lies in the joint
effort to minimize the logistical costs placed on regional
manufactures. By expanding and modernizing the current border
infrastructure , both countries promote a world-class logistical
capability that improves border wait times, customs procedures, and
trusted traveler or shipper programs. As a result, both countries are
working together through the 21st Century Border Initiative to
address shared challenges. Progress has been achieved over the
past three years that has helped to facilitate the secure and
efficient flow of goods and people along the border. Three new
international bridges , one in Arizona and the other two in Texas, were
constructed to support this growing demand. Becoming operational in
2009, the Anzalduas International Bridge in Texas was the first new bridge to
be built in over a decade, during which bilateral trade grew by 76%.
The 21st Century Border Initiative also includes a number of projects
that are in the process of completion, such as increasing the number of
northbound commercial lanes at the Laredo World Trade Bridge, expanding
the inspection area along the Nogales-Mariposa strategic border crossings in
Arizona, and replacing the out-dated two-lane bridge in the TornilloGuadalupe Bridge project in El Paso with a modern six-lane international
bridge. These and other projects are firm steps toward reinvesting in
the vast trade opportunities that the border region generates for
both countries and contributing to increase regional
competitiveness.
Status quo solves both governments are committed.

Collyns 13 Charles Collyns, Assistant Secretary for International Finance
at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2013 (Travels To Mexico Deepen
Economic Relations, Treasury Notesa U.S. Department of Treasury blog,
January 31st, Available Online at
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog/Pages/Travels-To-Mexico-DeepenEconomic-Relations.aspx, Accessed 07-26-2013)

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In all of our meetings, there was a focus on identifying concrete

initiatives that could be quickly advanced together by our two
Governments. A central priority will be to work together to improve
transportation links between Mexico and the United States to further
promote the increasing integration of supply chains and enhance the
global competitiveness of manufacturing across the North American
region. This will involve building on the 21st century border
initiative and working to improve infrastructure at the border , to
harmonize regulations and enhance air transport links.

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2nc trade not key

Trade has a very small effect on the US economy nafta
proves regional trade doesnt substantively change gdp
thats Villareal
Trade with mexico has increased gdp by a fraction of a
percent
CBO, 03 Congressional Budget Office, May,
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/42xx/doc4247/report.pd
f, The Effects of NAFTA on U.S.-Mexican Trade and GDP | ADM
NAFTA has had a very small positive effect on U.S. gross domestic
product. Estimating that effect precisely requires not only an estimate of the effects of NAFTA on trade
with Mexico but also an assessment of the degree of trade diversion (as discussed in Chapter 1) and a
model of the effects of trade on the U.S. economy. Such an analysis is beyond the scope of this paper.
Trade diversion cannot be assessed using aggregate trade data, such as that analyzed here; it requires
It is possible,
to obtain a rough orderofmagnitude estimate of the effects of
NAFTA on U.S. GDP by piggybacking on the results of other studies. In an earlier report, CBO
concluded from a survey and analysis of the relevant empirical literature that barriers to
trade with big emerging economies (such as those of China, Hong Kong, South Korea,
Singapore, Taiwan, and Mex ico) cost the U.S. economy somewhere between 5 cents and 35
analyzing trade on a productby product basis. The CBO model does not do that.
however,
cents for each $1 loss of exports.6 That estimate was obtained from studies showing the conversethat
the removal of trade restrictions led to a rise in GDP of 5 cents to 35 cents for each $1 increase in exports
so it is legitimate to conclude back to that converse. That is, one can multiply the ratio of 5 cents to 35
cents for each $1 increase in exports by the estimates from CBOs model of how much NAFTA has
Such a
method implicitly incorporates the effects of trade diversion because
the empirical literature that CBO surveyed to obtain the ratio considered trade
diversion.7 Applying the ratio to the estimates from CBOs model leads to
the conclusion that NAFTA has increased U.S. GDP, but by a very
increased U.S. exports to Mexico to produce a rough estimate of NAFTAs effects on U.S. GDP.
small amount probably no more than a few billion dollars, or a few

hundredths of a percent
(see Table 2). The trade increases wrought by NAFTA raised Mexican
GDP by much larger percentages than they raised U.S. GDPquite likely 16 to 21 times the U.S.
percentagesbecause of the much smaller size of the Mexican economy.8
NAFTA not key expanded gdp very slightly in north

american economies
Teslik, 09 Lee Hudson, consultant at McKinsey & Company.He was
previously a speechwriter for Queen Rania of Jordan. He has also worked as
senior editor and commodities analyst at Roubini Global Economics and as
associate editor of economics for the Council on Foreign Relations. His
writings have been published in The New York Times, Washington Post, Slate,
Newsweek, and Time, and he has written for The Economist, Council on
Foreign Relations, 7/7, http://www.cfr.org/world/naftas-economicimpact/p15790#p3, NAFTA's Economic Impact | ADM
In May 2003, the Congressional Budget Office attempted a full-scale
examination of NAFTA's economic consequences to date, taking care to

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note the challenges inherent in any effort to assign direct causation to one
specific trade agreement. The report came to three main conclusions:
U.S. trade with Mexico was growing before NAFTA's implementation,
and would likely have continued to grow with or without the deal on a
scale that " dwarfs the effects" of NAFTA itself ; The direct effect of
NAFTA on U.S.-Mexico trade is fairly small, and thus the direct impact
on the U.S. labor market is also small; and Overall, the NAFTA deal has
expanded U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) " very slightly ," and has
had a similar effect-both positive and small-on the Canadian and
Mexican economies.

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MDB Advantage
Multilateral Development Banks fail there is no
accountability and transparency with investment.
Bilateral aid is better.
Nelson 12 (Rebecca M. Nelson, Analyst in International Trade and Finance
at the Federation of American Scientists and Congressional Research Service,

April 18 2012, Multilateral Development Banks: Overview and Issues for
Congress, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41170.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
The effectiveness of foreign aid, including the aid provided by MDBs, in spurring
economic development and reform in developing countries, is contested. Many academic studies of
foreign aid effectiveness typically examine the effects of total foreign aid provided to
developing countries, including both bilateral aid and multilateral aid. With bilateral aid,
most U.S. resources go directly to programs and projects in
developing countries . With multilateral aid, multilateral
organizations, like the MDBs, pool money from different donors and
then provide money to fund programs and projects in developing
countries. The results of these studies that examine the effectiveness of bilateral and multilateral aid
are mixed, with conclusions ranging from (a) aid is ineffective at promoting economic
growth10 to (b) aid is effective at promoting economic growth11 to (c) aid is effective at promoting growth in some
countries under specific circumstances (such as when developing-country policies are strong).12 The divergent results of
these academic studies make it difficult to reach firm conclusions about the overall effectiveness of aid. Beyond the
there are also criticisms of the

providers of foreign aid. Many of these criticisms are made broadly about multilateral aid organizations
debates about the overall effectiveness of foreign aid,
and government aid agencies, and are not targeted at the MDBs specifically. For example, it is argued that the
national and international bureaucracies that dispense foreign aid

focus on getting money out the door to developing countries,
rather than on delivering services to developing countries;
emphasize short-term outputs like reports and frameworks but do
not engage in long-term activities like the evaluation of projects
after they are completed; and put enormous administrative
demands on developing-country governments. 13 Bilateral and multilateral
foreign aid agencies have also been criticized for their lack of
transparency about their operating costs and how they spend their
aid money; the fragmentation of foreign aid across many small aid
bureaucracies that are not well coordinated; and the proportion of
foreign aid that goes to corrupt leaders or is spent ineffectively .14
Alt cause - more investment from Congress is needed for

MDB success. Empirically, the banks fail to generate
capital.
Nelson 12 (Rebecca M. Nelson, Analyst in International Trade and Finance
at the Federation of American Scientists and Congressional Research Service,
April 18 2012, Multilateral Development Banks: Overview and Issues for
Congress, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41170.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)

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Authorizing and appropriations legislation is required for U.S.

contributions to the MDBs.
The Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and the House
Committee on Financial Services are responsible for managing MDB authorization legislation. During the
authorization legislation for the MDBs has not passed

as freestanding legislation. Instead, it has been included through other
legislative vehicles, such as the annual foreign operations appropriations act, a larger
omnibus appropriations act, or a budget reconciliation bill. The Foreign
past several decades,
Operations Subcommittees of the House and Senate Committees on Appropriations manage the relevant
appropriations legislation. MDB appropriations are included in the annual foreign operations appropriations
act or a larger omnibus appropriations act. In recent years, the Administrations budget request for the
MDBs has included three major components: funds to replenish the concessional lending windows, funds to
increase the size of the non-concessional lending windows (the general capital increases), and funds for
more targeted funds administered by the MDBs, particularly those focused on climate change and food
while capital
increases for the MDB non-concessional windows occur much more infrequently.
security.24 Replenishments of the MDB concessional windows happen regularly,
Quite unusually, all the MDBs are in the process of increasing their non-concessional windows, primarily to
address the increase in demand for loans that resulted from the financial crisis, prepare for future crises,
and, in the case of the IDB, recover from financial losses resulting from the financial crisis.
Simultaneous capital increases for all the MDBs has not happened
since the 1970s.
For more information on the general capital increases, see CRS Report R41672,
Multilateral Development Banks: General Capital Increases, by Martin A. Weiss. Data on U.S. contributions
(including requests and appropriated funds) to the MDBs can be found in CRS Report RS20792, Multilateral
Development Banks: U.S. Contributions FY2000-FY2013, by Rebecca M. Nelson.
MDBs are too conservative in their fiscal policy they

dont take financial risks.
CGD 12 (Center for Global Development, Why Multilateral Development
Bank Practices Are So Far from Their Potential,

http://www.cgdev.org/doc/books/Beyond_Lending/07_Beyond_LendingCh7.pdf, Keerthi, Acc 11/9/13)
In particular, those multilateral development banks that work mostly with
sovereign governments and that benefit from a de facto preferred
creditor status are actually accustomed to bearing very limited risks
from their development-oriented operations. It is not surprising, therefore, that a
highly conservative risk-management culture has prevailed in which
there is little appetite to retain and manage more complex and
higher risks . In contrast, those multilateral development banks that work only or substantially with the private sector are more
used to retaining and managing more diverse and higher risks. It should not come as a surprise, therefore, that they have often been pioneers
in financial innovation among multilateral development banks. As an example, the IFC, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, and FMO have been pioneers in lending in domestic currencies. As mentioned, recent initiatives by the
IFC (MATCH) and FMO (TCX) would take lending in domestic currencies a necessary step further by achieving risk reduction through global
pooling and retaining some residual currency risks on the balance sheets of these institutions, as discussed in chapter 4. Similarly, these
institutions have often been more aggressive in offering different types of guarantees and other structured products (see tables in the
appendix).
MDBs have too many bureaucratic issues.


A second factor that has limited the mainstreaming of financial
innovations in many multilateral development banks has to do with
bureaucratic culture, procedures, and inertia. This is again more
noticeable in those institutions that lend only or mostly to sovereign

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governments. In these cases, procedures and incentives are closely linked

to traditional lending operations bundled with technical assistance
and supervisory support. Financial innovations normally appear as stand-alone
financial products that are offered and managed by specialized treasury or financial unit officials and
are 3. An important issue to clarify is whether they can retain all types of risks against their total capital, including
callable capital, or just against their paid-in capital. Center for Global Development | www.cgdev.org WHY
not well integrated with

operational units procedures and incentives. New financial products need to be promoted to
the clients because their use often requires improved technical capabilities and
MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANK PRACTICES ARE FAR FROM POTENTIAL 75
the more
associated institutional and policy reforms, as well as overcoming political economy problems. This is a role for country
operational units. However, in practice, the fact that most technical support is bundled with traditional lending
operations creates a major internal bias in operational units in their favor and thus against the mainstreaming of new
financial products.
MDBs cant attract private investors

A final and related limiting factor is perhaps the most crucial one: the
frequent lack of stakeholder push and support for financial
innovations . Although there are some notable exceptions, multilateral development
bank boards have usually been more reluctant to innovate than
management in this and other areas. This may be to some extent an unavoidable
limitation of collective action: it is not easy to achieve consensus for
change among representatives of many developed and developing
countries with widely different interests. But, more profoundly, it seems to be
associated with a lack of a common view among stakeholders about
the basic roles of the multilateral development banks in a world with more
access to private capital flows.

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Topicality

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1nc T Dialogue
Engagement requires direct talks with the target
government

_r=0
until he masters some key terms and better manages the expectations they convey. Given the furor
that will surround the news of Americas readiness to hold talks with Iran, he could start with
engagement one of the trickiest terms in the policy lexicon. The
Obama administration has used this term to contrast its approach with its
predecessors resistance to talking with adversaries and troublemakers. His
critics show that they misunderstand the concept of engagement when they ridicule it as making nice with nasty or
hostile regimes. Lets get a few things straight. Engagement in statecraft is not about sweet talk. Nor is it based on the
illusion that our problems with rogue regimes can be solved if only we would talk to them. Engagement is not
normalization, and its goal is not improved relations. It is not akin to dtente, working for rapprochement, or
appeasement.
So how do you define an engagement strategy? It does
require direct talks . There is simply no better way to convey

authoritative statements of position or to hear responses. But
establishing talks is just a first step. The goal of engagement is to change the other countrys
perception of its own interests and realistic options and, hence, to modify its policies and its behavior.
Prefer it
First, limits any regulation, product, or private action is
justified infinite unpredictable AFFs
Second, ground means-focus is key to stable disad and
counterplan prep they create a race to shallow,
unpredictable single-sector strategies

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Violation --- plans only a unilateral change in policy; it

Voting issue --A. Limits --- requiring direct talks places a functional limit
Specific insignificant cases are non-engagement, but just
interaction, controlling the Negs research burden
B. Ground --- talks are a stable mechanism for DA links
diplomacy --- core ground is key to fairness and
education.

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2nc interpretation
Econ engagement is only direct aid and trade agreements
the AFF is third-party engagement
Daga 13 (Sergio Daga, director of research at Politicas Publicas para la Libertad,
Bolivia, visiting senior policy analyst, Heritage Foundation, M.A. Economics, University
of Chile, B.A. Economics, Catholic University of Bolivia, also trained at Libertad y
Desarrollo, Chile, and the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, United States,
Economics of the 2013-2014 Debate Topic: U.S. Economic Engagement Toward
Cuba, Mexico or Venezuela, National Center for Policy Analysis, Debate
Backgrounder No. 7, 5-15-2013, http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/Message_to_Debaters_6-713.pdf)
Economics is the branch of human knowledge concerned with the satisfaction of human wants through
the production of goods and services, and the exchange of those goods and services between two or
economics encompasses human activities from

simple barter between two individuals to international trade
between firms or governments. Many of these economic activities are regulated by
more individuals. Thus,
government, and some are outlawed. Trade and other economic activities that cross national borders
such as sales of goods and services, travel, migration or transfers of money are regulated by both
and the government of the destination country. The
government itself could be an economic actor, buying and selling
from other governments or firms in other countries; or the
government could regulate the private economic activities of
individuals and firms. Economic engagement between or among countries can
take many forms, but this document will focus on government-to-government
engagement through 1) international trade agreements designed to
lower barriers to trade; and 2) government foreign aid; next, we will
contrast government-to-government economic engagement with
private economic engagement through 3) international investment,
called foreign direct investment; and 4) remittances and migration
by individuals. All of these areas are important with respect to the countries mentioned in the
debate resolution; however, when discussing economic engagement by the
U.S. federal government, some issues are more important with respect to
some countries than to others.
the government of the originating country
Engagement requires contact and dialogue

Lederach 12 John Paul Lederach, Professor of International
Peacebuilding at the University of Notre Dame and Ph.D. in Sociology from
the University of Colorado, From Isolation to Engagement: Strategies for
Countering Violent Extremism, Peace Policy, 1-25,
http://peacepolicy.nd.edu/2012/01/25/from-isolation-to-engagementstrategies-for-countering-violent-extremism/
The U.S. governments list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations is a central part of a counter-terrorism
strategy based on the isolation of individuals and groups who espouse violence defined as terrorism. This
strategy makes it illegal to provide material support to those individuals and groups, whichh increasingly is
Peacebuilding, on
the other hand, proposes a strategy of engagement. Engagement
interpreted to prohibit any contact or consultation with groups on the list.
requires contact and deliberative dialogue , inclusive of all views. It

develops processes that focus on accurately understanding the sources of violence and addressing them
through a range of nonviolent change strategies.

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2nc possible case areas

Our interpretation still maintains good affirmative breadth
and choice. Heres a list of possible affs:
1. Removing the whole Cuban embargo. This has many
subsets.
2. Increasing oil talks with Venezuela.
3. Ratifying Trans-boundary Agreement with Mexico.
4. Commit to talking about or renegotiating international
free trade agreements. This has like 5 aff subsets under
it.

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Solvency

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1nc border transmission fl

Plan fails Mexican law and subnational governments
Bonner et al 10 (Robert C. Bonner, Former Commissioner of U.S.
Customs and Border Protection; Former Administrator, Drug Enforcement
Administration; Andres Rozental, Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico;
Former President and Founder Mexican Council on Foreign Relations
(COMEXI); http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=31)
At present, however, there is no such a thing as an energy agenda for the border region: no
true market for electricity across the border, no binational plan for electricity
generation or transmission, and no program to develop new technologies or energy reserves. One
significant obstacle to cross-border cooperation on energy is that
Mexican law places a state-owned monopoly, the Federal Electricity
Commission, in charge of electricity generation and transmission .
Several reforms to this state-owned monopoly are necessary for a
cross-border energy market to function , including a standardized
investment regime for both countries and direct negotiations
between subnational governments across the border.
Mexico is solving for its own electricity its making a

smart grid system, which resolves issues of the
uniformity.
Berst 13 (Jesse Berse, Aug 6, 2013, Mexico, the next big smart grid
opportunity,
http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Business_Markets_Pricing/Mex
ico-the-next-big-smart-grid-opportunity-5926.html#.Umc91BZmRUQ, Keerthi,
10/22/13)
Quick Take: Smart grid research firm Zpryme believes Mexico may be the next
hot smart grid market, due to an increase in participation from the
private sector . - By Jesse Berst Zprymes research indicates that Mexicos smart grid technology market will
grow from $1.23 billion in 2012 to $7.42 billion in 2020. This translates to a projected compound annual growth rate
While starting from a small base, this represents an

attractive regional opportunity in a large market that is poised for
aggressive investment to modernize their power grid. Like many Latin
American countries, Mexico faces problems such as power outages, electrical
theft, and poor energy infrastructure. Therefore, smart grid technology
(CAGR) of 25%.
provides an unprecedented opportunity for Mexico to improve both

functionally and economically.
At present, the electricity market in Mexico is federally owned, with
the Federal Electricity Commission (Comision Federal de Electricidad or CFE) essentially controlling the whole sector. To
date, this level of control has stifled innovation, but we believe
things will change with broader
participation coming from the private sector.
Private power generation in Mexico is
done on a self-supply basis, where these players can only generate electricity for their own consumption, and can only sell
private power producers will have

new opportunities, thus bringing more secondary buyers into the
market for smart grid technologies. Our research leads us to conclude that these and other
excess electricity back to CFE. As modernization advances,

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positive opportunities will drive overall growth for Mexico due to the
confluence of several trends. Key among these would be forwardthinking energy policies designed to raise the countrys international competitiveness. These entail the
integration of renewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainability goals into broader programs that smart grid
initiatives would drive. Another example would be the implementation of strategic pilot programs used to evaluate new
technologies for their technical, operational, and cost effectiveness.. This exclusive reports projects Mexicos market
value (2012-2020) for the technology segments below. Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Distribution
Automation (DA) Advanced Transmission and Substations/Systems Customer Systems Enterprise IT Systems, Software,
& Communications Grid Scale Energy Storage Microgrids C&I Energy Management Systems Advanced Distribution
smart grid investment will be

led by AMI, and as these deployments create a foundation for
modernization, new growth will be driven by distributed automation
and grid scale energy storage. Similar patterns are likely to unfold across Latin America, and for
vendors who can deliver on Mexicos scale, the road ahead is promising. The 25% CAGR for smart
grid technologies through 2020 indicates that Mexico is poised for a
long cycle of sustained growth . This is actually a healthy
Management Systems Cybersecurity Cloud Applications Initially,
environment for centralized planning, and if the levers for

investment and policy change can keep pace with the growing need
for energy , Mexico will serve as a model for other countries to follow for rapid and environmentally responsible
modernization efforts.
Grid interconnection fails -- Theres no unification of

resources
Berst 13 (Jesse Berst is the founder and Chief Analyst of SGN and
Chairman of the Smart Cities Council, an industry coalition, July 19, Why the
next wave of smart grid is doomed to fail,
http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Business_Strategy/Why-thenext-wave-of-smart-grid-is-doomed-to-fail-5891.html#.Um3CxhbaZUQ,
A recent article in the New York Times attempts to answer the sector's biggest conundrum. Most political
leaders put grid modernization high on their list of must-do projects .
Yet very little gets done . "For the most part, experts say the grid is not being changed, at least
not on a scale big enough to make much difference." The Times says the
reason is balkanization. It reports that more than 500 owners have a stake
in the transmission grid. As a result, a new plan to renew the Eastern Interconnection is unlikely to get
anywhere. The Eastern Interconnection is one of the three interconnections that together encompass Canada and the
continental U.S. (see picture nearby). A new plan proposes a redesign to create a grid suitable for shipping bulk electricity
planning effort is likely to be ignored,

because none of the participants have the courage to fully endorse it
or to recommend who should pay for it. "We said, Heres what we could do,' but we havent
across the country. Yet the $16 million dollar
said how we would pay for it," one participant admitted to the Times. The study revealed that business-as-usual would
require $18.5 billion in new transmission lines between 2010 and 2030. The new plan to accommodate renewables on a
grand scaled would require $115 billion. "It
is just not going to happen, at least not

any time soon, said James J. Hoecker, a former member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission .
One problem is resource nationalism. Individual states want to
use local resources, whether coal or wind, rather than importing
from neighbors in a way that could be more economical.

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2nc border transmission fl

Smartgrids susceptible to cyberterrorists- no solvency
Yan et al 13 (Jun, Professor, University of Rhode Island, MODELLING AND
ANALYSIS ON SMART GRID AGAINST SMART ATTACKS, 2013
http://digitalcommons.uri.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?
article=1018&context=theses\\CLans
However, the Smart Grid yields not only a boost of economic benefits but also a
growing number of potential threats from the cyberspace [6]. While the
distributed control can reduce the criticality of some control center and thus weaken the impact of attacks
the distributed access from the system-ona-chip (SoC)

can possibly allow malicious attackers penetrating into
the power systems with increased difficulties to detect and track
them. Meanwhile, with the huge volume of data
owing along the power transmission network, they are becoming more vulnerable to
data or command interception and unauthorized modification, which can
targeted on them,
electrical devices
be utilized to either cheat the meters for an unfair price or disrupt power system operations. More
knowledge of the power grid can be learned and the

information or intelligence could be used to hack into the distributed
control units that may be less protected than the centralized operation and management hubs,
resulting in unpredictable security risks. Hence, it becomes crucial to realize and
react to the vulnerability of Smart Grid in the new forms of potential attacks. These \smart"
attacks, if deliberately designed and launched successfully on some
critical components, can cast a disastrous impact on the power grid
transmission and significantly jeopardize the interest of both the
public, the industry as well as the economics. One of the vulnerabilities of
Smart Grid that could be taken advantage of by the attackers are the possibility of
cascading failure events in power systems, in which a few failed components can
seriously,
trigger the collapse of normal power transmission and consequently results in blackouts in the distribution
There are many examples of power grid failures

with severe consequences; i.e. the 2003 blackout in northeast U.S., the 2011 blackout in
networks on the users' side.
California, Arizona and Mexico, and the most recent 2012 massive blackout in India have all left millions of
major power blackouts caused by

cascading failure, though rare as they are, cast significant impact to both
society and industry [7, 8]. Therefore, the government, the engineering community and power
people in darkness. They have shown that
industry are paying growing attention to the power grid cascading analysis and many significant results
have been published [9{12].

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A2 Smart Grid
(also can be used as answers to regular Grid)
Smart grid will fail no stakeholder engagement, security

issues, lack of standards and no uniformity of regulation.
Cohen 11 (Boyd Cohen, Ph.D., LEED AP, is a climate strategist, 4
REASONS WHY THE SMART GRID HAS FAILED TO TAKE OFF,
http://www.fastcompany.com/1783502/4-reasons-why-smart-grid-has-failedtake, Keerthi, Acc 10/27/13)
Since performing research for my book, Climate Capitalism (written with Hunter Lovins) a few years ago, I
have become increasingly convinced that
the smart grid has the potential to be one
of the "holy grails"
in the clean tech revolution. I believe that the smart grid can be the enabling
technology that allows all kinds of other low-carbon innovations to flourish. The smart grid will give
industrial, commercial, and residential consumers real-time access to energy consumption and costs,
which will lead to demand side reductions (i.e. energy efficiency). It also promises to support distributed,
renewable energies from rooftop solar panels to electric vehicles (EVs). Combined with smart homes, the
latter could even be used to power a consumer's home for a few days in the case of power outages, which
could be reduced in frequency, volume, and duration with help from smart grids. With corporate
behemoths like GE, Cisco, and IBM as well as hundreds (if not thousands) of tech startups already in this
space, why hasn't the smart grid become more ubiquitous? Unsurprisingly, Europe seems further down the
path with the potential to leverage wind power from the North Sea Grid and solar power from southern
Europe in a continental supergrid.
But why hasn't the U.S. made more progress
towards smart grid connectivity? I think one of the biggest challenges

is the industry's lack of stakeholder engagement from consumers
(corporate and residential) and politicians. When utilities have in the past held referendums
regarding the investment in smart grid technologies, the vote does not always go in their favor. This is
often because consumers believe that the costs outweigh the
benefits. More needs to be done to clearly establish the business case for smart grid adoption. Of
course, I am not alone in recognizing this issue. The Smart Grid Consumer Collaborative is focused
squarely on the problem. And Katharine Brass, the Program Manager for GE's Ecoimagination program,
the biggest barrier to more widespread adoption is

consumer perception. Security Concerns . In today's world of heightened concerns
over terrorism and increasingly sophisticated hackers, there is no wonder many worry
about the vulnerability that our energy system could be exposed to
if it truly were as IT-focused (and dependent) as we envision. This is a legitimate concern
recently argued that
being addressed by the industry, as evidenced by the forthcoming Smart Grid Security Summit to be held
Standards . To Fast Company readers, this will sound like a familiar

problem. Numerous technology providers are offering a range of
technology solutions ,from smart meters to grid automation
software--and many of them have a vested interest in using proprietary, closed standards. The
smart grid will only succeed on a large scale if technology suppliers
agree to work on an open standard. Regulatory and Policy Support .
The U.S. has a difficult landscape for bringing the energy industry into the 21st century.
We have a mix of federal regulation and state legislation, as well as
some level of autonomy at the municipal level. A great book that explains this
next week in San Diego.
issue is Smart Power: Climate Change, The Smart Grid, and the Future of Electric Utilities. Guido Bartels,
IBMs head of Global Energy and Utilities, Chairman of GridWise Alliance and an adviser to the Obama
Administration, has also spoken up about the need for more regulatory action to provide the proper
incentives for the adoption of smart grid technology.

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Laundry list of reasons it fails

Hunt 12 (Gary Hunt is President, Scalable Growth Strategy Advisors, an
independent energy technology and information services adviser and a

partner in Tech & Creative Labs, Jan 2012, Fears Over Smart Grid Failure,
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fears-Over-Smart-GridFailure.html, Keerthi, Acc 10/27/13)
As smart meter deployment reaches saturation points across North
America there is disquiet about what is next. It all seemed too fast
and too easy. The idea of smarter power grids was seductive promising reduced line losses, more
efficient integration of renewable energy, happiness, prosperity for all. You see my point? Weve reached
what the Gartner folks like to call in geek-speak the trough of disillusionment. That ugly place where just
when we thought we could see the new world a storm blows up threatening to crash our boat on the rocks.
There are several simple explanations for the current

disquiet. The most obvious is making the mistake of equating smart grid with smart meters.
The Federal government spent billions supporting the roll-out and
Whats driving it?
deployment of smart meters
during the depths of the recession in part because it was
easy and visible. In reality smart meters are the tail that is trying to wag the digital transformation going
But now were reaching the

stage where millions of smart meters are installed and customers
are asking is that all there is? State regulators were complicit in
on sensor by sensor, link by link across the power grid.
this confusion of smart meters with smarter grid by ordering utilities to take
State regulators often had different
motivations including a desire to expand the use of renewable energy from wind and solar into the
supply mix or to reduce power plant emissions. Smart grid is NOT the same thing as
the Federal money and ask questions later.
the clean energy economy . This co-mingling of political goals lead to the other factor
driving the smart grid trough of disillusionment today. Just because we install smart meters on the side of
our houses does not mean the air will suddenly be cleaner or that solar panels will magically appear on
every roof. T he
smart grid trough of disillusionment is like Dorothy in

the Wizard of Oz who comes pleading with the Wizard to send her
back to Kansas only to discover as the curtain is drawn back that the
Great and Wonderful, All Powerful Oz is just a man standing at a
switchboard creating a light show for dramatic effect. Only in the case of the
Smart Meter wizard, customers tend to blame that smart meter for causing their rates to spike on hot
days, pushing them into a higher tier in the dynamic pricing scheme. Its not true but it matters little to an
angry customer. In truth the trough of smart grid disillusionment is driven by the sum of our fears
revealed as the curtain is drawn back allowing us to see for the first time that our utility bills are going up
and up because our politicians are piling on us their pet projects and politically-correct policies and state
and federal regulators being good politicians themselves are doing what they are told.

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Mexico Microfinancing Neg

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NAFTA DA Yo
T
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STRAT

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T Dialogue
Engagement requires direct talks with the target
government
_r=0
until he masters some key terms and better manages the expectations they convey. Given
the furor that will surround the news of Americas readiness to hold talks with Iran, he could start
with engagement one of the trickiest terms in the policy
lexicon. The Obama administration has used this term to contrast its
approach with its predecessors resistance to talking with
adversaries and troublemakers. His critics show that they misunderstand the concept of
engagement when they ridicule it as making nice with nasty or hostile regimes. Lets get a few things
straight. Engagement in statecraft is not about sweet talk. Nor is it based on the illusion that our problems
with rogue regimes can be solved if only we would talk to them. Engagement is not normalization, and its
goal is not improved relations. It is not akin to dtente, working for rapprochement, or appeasement. So
how do you define an engagement strategy? It does require direct

talks . There is simply no better way to convey authoritative
statements of position or to hear responses. But establishing talks is
just a first step. The goal of engagement is to change the other countrys perception of its own
interests and realistic options and, hence, to modify its policies and its behavior.
Violation --- plans only a unilateral change in policy; it

Voting issue --1. Limits --- requiring direct talks places a functional limit
Specific import cases cant beat the PIC out of talks,
controlling the Negs research burden
2. Ground --- talks are a stable mechanism for DA links
diplomacy --- core ground is key to fairness

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Solvency FL
Micro-financing is very uncertain in Mexico finance and
loan companies will not assess client needs, there is
organizational failure, there is no transparency, too many
regulations exist, competition is too high, and no private
sector participation.
Guzman 11 (Sergio Guzman, analyst at the Center for Financial Inclusion,
September 13 2011, The State of Microfinance in Mexico: Uncertainty

Ahead?, Keerthi, Acc 11/16/13)
One concern is that new market entrants (e.g. consumer lenders, pawn
shops) eager to grow their portfolios may be doing so without
tested methodologies or sufficient understanding of client needs. The
Centers Weathering the Storm: Hazards, Beacons, and Life Rafts paper, and its counterpart by Marulanda, Taking the Good from the Bad in
Microfinance: Lessons Learned from Failed Experiences in Latin America also point out that
lack of solid
methodologies is a frequent cause of organizational failure in

microfinance. More than a pat in the back to Mexico, the Marulanda report advises the Mexican
microfinance industry to buckle your bootstraps foreseeing stiffer
regulations (e.g., in PAR accounting and pricing transparency), shifting and
intensifying competition (product diversification, price competition
and new market entrants) and credit bureau reporting norms. Providers of
public funds and investors will play a n important role in the promotion of microfinance
reforms in the country. The study calls on them to participate actively in the process. These challenges paint
a preoccupying future for the Mexican industry. Granted, it has come a long way, but now
it faces the challenges that come with growing up.
Micro-finance efforts utterly fail experts agree.

- flaws in credit tech, fraud, uncontrolled growth, loss of focus, design flaws, government intervention.
- theres no one size fits all uniformity, failing risk management decreases asset quality, macroeconomic
doesnt cause bankruptcy, easy access to funding leads to fraud and failure, there is bad
governance/regulation, politics interferes with success.
Marulanda et al. 2010 (B. Marulanda, Ph.D., L. Fajury, M. Paredes, et

al., June 2010, Taking the Good from the Bad in Microfinance: Lessons
Learned from Failed Experiences in Latin America,
http://www.microfinancegateway.org/p/site/m/template.rc/1.1.12472/?
page1=print, Keerthi, Acc 11/16/13)
Learning from MFI experiences of failure This paper analyzes
examples of MFI failure in order to understand and document errors in
microfinance that will offer lessons for the future. Many of the institutions
analyzed faced more than one cause of failure , but sought to identify the main
cause. The study is based on interviews with experts and their opinion about
what could be considered a failed experience. It identifies six types
of common causes of failure in MFIs, namely, methodological flaws in
credit technology, systematic fraud, uncontrolled growth, loss of
focus, design flaws and government intervention. Lessons include: One

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recipe does not work for every institution; Macroeconomic crisis

does not necessarily cause bankruptcy; Factors such as asset
composition and integrated risk management strongly the affect
asset quality of MFIs; Abundant and easy access to funding may
have negative implications; Bad governance and regulation, and
exposure to political risks strongly affect the industry. The study highlights
the need to understand that microfinance is a financial business. The way in which
crises are handled by an MFIs Board of Directors and management team ultimately determines whether or
not an institution will overcome that challenge.
Microfinance fails without welfare programs

Latin American Bureau 12 (7/16/12; An Overview of Microfinance in
Latin America; http://lab.org.uk/an-overview-of-microfinance-in-latinamerica//NDW)
The fact that the poor have turned out to confound prejudice and been extremely good at managing and
many are too poor

to be helped by small loans. In 95% of cases, repayments are met, showing those receiving
these loans are very capable of managing risk considering their limited resources. While
microfinance can help those who can absorb credit into an existing
activity, this still leaves many people too poor to help themselves. For
them, social policy experts are calling for a simple recipe: just give
money to the poor. The effects of cash transfers, as they are called, have
been similar to microfinance across the region. Recipients have
invested the cash in welfare and education to rise above the poverty
line. These programmes are a reminder that there is still a role for the state in
distribution and welfare, before market solutions such as
microfinance can be workable
making money, given minimal opportunities, is paradoxically a reminder that
Microfinance isnt enough, its just one dimension of a

complex system
Cheston and Kuhn 2[Susy Cheston, Senior Vice President, Policy and Research,
Opportunity , International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Womens Opportunity Fund. Lisa Kuhn,
Program Analyst, Opportunity International Research sponsored by the Womens Opportunity Fund and its
funding partners: Elizabeth Foster and Michael Walsh, Gems of Hope USA, and the Morrow Charitable Trust.
Publication sponsored by UNIFEM. Empowering Women through Microfinance
http://storage.globalcitizen.net/data/topic/knowledge/uploads/201101311419705.pdf 7/8/2]//DLi
Given the enthusiasm that many donors and practitioners have shown for the empowering potential of
microfinance, why are many MFIs reluctant to focus on womens empowerment when designing their
systems and programs? Their rationales range from the belief that empowerment will happen naturally as
a result of a good microfinance program to the concern that paying attention to empowerment will distract
MFIs and their managers from running their institutions sustainably. In this section we explore a few of
basic theory is
that microfinance empowers women by putting capital in their hands
and allowing them to earn an independent income and contribute
these concerns. Does Access to Credit Automatically Leads to Empowerment? The
financially to their households and communities. This economic empowerment is expected to generate
increased self-esteem, respect, and other forms of empowerment for women beneficiaries. Involvement in
Closer
examination shows us, however, that this equation may not always hold
true and that complacency in these assumptions can lead MFIs to
overlook both opportunities to empower women more profoundly
and failures in empowerment. The ability of a woman to transform her
life through access to financial services depends on many factors
successful income-generating activities should translate into greater control and empowerment.
some of them linked to her individual situation and abilities, and others dependent upon her environment

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Control of capital is only one dimension of
the complex and ever-changing process by which the cycles of

poverty and powerlessness replicate themselves . Women also face
disadvantages in accessing information, social networks, and other
resources they need to succeed in business and in life. Only by evaluating
the needs of women will an MFI be able to maximize its empowerment potential.
Microfinancing fails methodological and implementation

flaws. This evidence is in the context of Latin America.
Marulanda et al. 2010 (Beatriz Marulanda, Ph.D., Lizbeth Fajury,
Mariana Paredes, Franz Gomez, June 2010, Taking the Good from the Bad in
Microfinance: Lessons Learned from Failed Experiences in Latin America,
Calmeadow Institute,
http://www.calmeadow.com/pdf/failures.pdfhttp://www.microfinancegateway.o
rg/p/site/m/template.rc/1.1.12472/?page1=print, Keerthi, Acc 11/16/13)
Perhaps the most characteristic and most analyzed element when describing an
MFI is its customer service methodology, which incorporates several characteristics
that can differentiate the institution from other MFIs. Aspects of this methodology can
include a particular design for the credit product offered (short terms or graduated loan
offerings for example); a decentralized risk assessment methodology carried out by loan officers who visit
the clients place of business and build the family and businesss cash flow in order to estimate the ability
of the client to pay a loan; and an incentive system for loan officers, which incorporates a bonus for both
methodologies have been

developed in which the loan is not given individually, but administered to
the granting and quality loans. Besides these characteristics,
solidarity groups out of consideration for clients socio- economic profiles, the institutions risk
management, and operational costs. And beyond solidarity groups, methodologies extend to village
banking as well, and each different lending methodology requires a unique institutional structure. The
poor or partial implementation of these processes, which this paper has

termed methodological flaws, has been one of the factors that
have contributed to the failure of many microfinance initiatives in the
region. This phenomenon comes in many forms, from the non-use of
proper methodology to its partial implementation, through carelessness and
neglect of essential elements of the methodology over time, as well as the use of
different methodologies without considering the type of markets for
which they were developed.
Microfinance fails privatization, corruption, and

exclusion
Momaya 9 (Masum, Curator of International Museum for Women, Honors Bachelors
degree in Public Policy and Feminist Studies from Stanford University, master's in Education
and a doctorate in Human Development and Psychology from Harvard University, on the board
of the Third Wave Foundation; 10/14/2009; More than Microfinance;
http://www.imow.org/economica/stories/viewStory?storyid=3660)
Political science researcher Matthew Ruben points out that "the
popularity of microfinance
has the potential to distract from other vital antipoverty measures . It
is easy for donors and governments to create and fund credit programs
and ignore other, potentially more serious problems faced by the rural poor.
Microfinance by itself does not solve the need for medical services,
infrastructure, education and land reform"(6). These are needs that poor
women and families cannot be expected to fulfill for themselves; rather, they need
resources from governments, the private sector and civil society

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organizations. In many countries, however, governments, banks and the

private sector are either failing to step forward, highly corrupt or
offering "solutions" that only serve to entrench poverty rather than
dismantle it. For example, the privatization of social welfare programs in most
countries means that MFIs are often expected to provide necessary
services for the poor--services that were once the responsibility of
governments. This is not problematic in and of itself, but there is little incentive for
private groups to actually do so, and privatized services may place profit
over access and affordability. Even in cases where governments are ready to step
in and, for example, build and maintain schools, roads, utility services, job training programs, health clinics
own financial vulnerability often compromises their

ability to make significant, long-term investments. Poorer countries
usually borrow money for structural improvements at very high interest rates and
under very constraining conditions from other governments, as well as from
international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This
increases governments debt and ultimately handicaps their efforts, since many of
the resources go to loan negotiation and repayments rather than building
and the like, their
infrastructure or providing services. Moreover, due to rampant corruption within many governments,
much of the money from these loans is pocketed well before it makes it into the
hands of those who need it most. The loans also come with multiple restrictions
about who gets money and for what, most often leaving women out. Community-based
activists, including women, are routinely excluded from high-level
discussions between finance ministers and loan officers ; plans for use of the
money are frequently top-down, unrealistic and ineffective. Even efforts that begin with the best intentions
experts also fear we are becoming

overly reliant on microfinance as the primary vehicle for global
poverty alleviation. Scholars like Heloise Weber at the University of Aberdeen, for example, have
argued that the dominance of microfinance as a strategy could pave the
way for banks to take over the roles of governments--and make huge
profits in the process. This has major implications for future access to microfinance and the
can go sour, and resources are then lost. Many
affordability of repayments.
No solvency no macro-finance, bad usage, and high

interest rates
In economics, people frequently use terms such as "micro" or "macro." Nowadays, "micro" is generally
associated with microcredit or microfinance, two terms that have become synonymous with the popular
practice of giving small loans to people--most often women--to start small businesses and make money for
themselves and their families. "Macro" sometimes hints at large sums of money, but it can also mean the
high-level structural reform of institutions that have deep impacts on the economy, such as banks and
governments.
A look at microfinance's successes and shortcomings in

helping women and their families get out of poverty shows that
macro-level structural reforms--not just more microfinance--are
needed to help overcome poverty. Does microfinance actually alleviate poverty? On one
hand, it gives people who are disenfranchised a chance to earn money and participate financially in
society. It offers steady employment and helps individuals establish the verifiable credit histories
necessary to secure savings accounts, credit and loans. Microfinance can succeed in generating income for
whole families and communities, and sometimes helps local, indigenous industries bloom in places where
there are a number of

challenges and negative repercussions to microcredit, some of them
there is little other economic development. On the other hand,

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Because of extreme poverty, many borrowers take out loans

for household expenses rather than for their businesses (1). In some cases,
women even take out loans to pay for their daughters dowries; dowry
unforeseen.
prices can go up when it becomes known that women have access to microcredit(2). Moreover, some
microfinance
institutions charge exorbitantly high interest rates,

causing borrowers to become trapped in cycles of debt. When
women dont have enough income to make payments, they may
borrow from within their social network, sell household goods,
reduce food consumption and seek out additional work(3). These
behaviors are unsustainable, and show that access to credit doesnt
guarantee an end to poverty. Financial inclusion doesnt necessarily
translate into economic independence or empowerment , especially
when the burden of poverty alleviation remains on poor women
themselves and discriminatory cultural practices further
disadvantage women.

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Poverty Cards
Micro financing is only good in theory, does not effect
actual poverty and coopts women into the market
(Abhijit Banerjee et al., Esther Duflo Rachel Glennester Cynthia Kinnan ,
The miracle of microfinance? Evidence from a randomized evaluation,
Working Paper 13-09, April 10, 2013, Q)
To frame the analysis, we propose a model where a household may
wish to acquire lumpy investment (a durable good, or an asset for a
business ). One key result of the model is that households who have
access to microcredit may sacrifice short- or even medium-term
consumptionwhen microcredit becomes available in order to get the
durable good, or to invest in a business. Other households may
decide to expand their labor supply. Non-durable consumption may
thus initially fall, and even total consumption may not increase. Of
course, if the household has invested in a profitable business, we
could eventually expect consumption to increase: this underscores
the importance of following households over a long enough period of
time. We examine the effect consumption, new business creation,
business income, etc., as well as measures of other human
development outcomes such as education, health and womens
empowerment. At the first endline, we see no difference in monthly
per capita consumption and monthly non-durable consumption. We do see
significant positive impacts on the purchase of durables. There is evidence that this is financed partly by
an increase in labor supply and partly by cutting unnecessary consumption: households have reduced
expenditures on what that they themselves describe as temptation goods. Thus, in our context,
microfinance plays a role in helping households make different intertemporal choices in consumption. This
is not the only impact that is traditionally expected from microfinance, however. The primary engine of
growth that it is supposed to fuel is business creation. Fifteen to 18 months after gaining access,
but they are

more likely to start more than one business, and they invest more in
the businesses they do have (or the ones they start). There is an
increase in the average profits of the businesses that were already
in existence before microcredit, but this is entirely due to very large
increases in the upper tail. At every quantile between the 5th and
the 95th percentile, there is no difference in the profits of the
businesses. The median marginal new business is both less
profitable and less likely to have even one employee in treatment
than in control areas. After three years, when microcredit is available both in treatment and
households are no more likely to be entrepreneurs (that is, have at least one business),
control groups but trtreatment and 33% in control). But households in treatment groups had larger loans
and had been borrowing for a longer time period. This second survey thus gives us an opportunity to
examine some of the longer-term impacts of microcredit access on households and businesses. To frame
the analysis, we propose a model where a household may wish to acquire lumpy investment (a durable
good, or an asset for a business ). One key result of the model is that households who have access to
microcredit may sacrifice short- or even medium-term consumption when microcredit becomes available in
order to get the durable good, or to invest in a business. Other households may decide to expand their
labor supply. Non-durable consumption may thus initially fall, and even total consumption may not
increase. Of course, if the household has invested in a profitable business, we could eventually expect
consumption to increase: this underscores the importance of following households over a long enough
consumption, new business creation,

business income, etc., as well as measures of other human
development outcomes such as education, health and womens
period of time. We examine the effect

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empowerment. At the first endline, we see no difference in monthly

per capita consumption and monthly non-durable consumption. We
do see significant positive impacts on the purchase of durables.
There is evidence that this is financed partly by an increase in labor
supply and partly by cutting unnecessary consumption: households
have reduced expenditures on what that they themselves describe
as temptation goods. Thus, in our context, microfinance plays a
role in helping households make different intertemporal choices in
consumption. This is not the only impact that is traditionally
expected from microfinance, however. The primary engine of growth
that it is supposed to fuel is business creation. Fifteen to 18 months
after gaining access, households are no more likely to be
entrepreneurs (that is, have at least one business), but they are
more likely to start more than one business, and they invest more in
the businesses they do have (or the ones they start). There is an increase in the average
profits of the businesses that were already in existence before microcredit, but this is entirely due to very
5th and the 95th percentile,

there is no difference in the profits of the businesses. The median
marginal new business is both less profitable and less likely to have
even one employee in treatment than in control areas. After three
years, when microcredit is available both in treatment and control
groups but 4
large increases in the upper tail. At every quantile between the
Microfinance reinforces gender discrimination

Research shows that women repay their loans in higher rates than men and that while men often spend
loan money on themselves, women are more likely to use their loans to improve their businesses(4).
Women also tend to spend their income on healthcare, education, their families and their children--all
women have become the top

targets of microfinance institutions (MFIs). However, this attention has
proved a mixed blessing. Unscrupulous lenders may exploit womens
"dependability" by charging very high interest rates and
encouraging them to take out larger loans than necessary to finance
their businesses. Moreover, because of their better access to credit, some
women are expected to earn a living while still assuming traditional
caretaking duties--and while still being excluded from major household
decisions. Without accompanying changes in social beliefs and
attitudes, access to economic opportunities doesnt guarantee that
womens situations will improve.
spending priorities that help alleviate poverty(5). As a result,

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Venezuela Says Neigh

(VSN)

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1NC Venezuela Says No

Venezuela says no they hate American hegemony and
capitalism.
Outtrim 12/30/13 (Ryan Mallett-Outtrim, Analyst of Venezuela Affairs, Venezuelan General
Deterrence: New Axis of Evil or Third World Liberation?, http://www.globalresearch.ca/venezuelan-generaldeterrence-new-axis-of-evil-or-third-world-liberation/5363033?
utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=venezuelan-general-deterrence-new-axis-of-evil-orthird-world-liberation, Centre for Research on Globalization, Keerthi, Acc 12/31/13)
There is good reason to believe
Venezuelas efforts to eject the US from Latin
America are showing signs of success . In the past decade, South America has
been lost to Washington (Chomsky, 2011). However, this is part of a global decline in US dominance (Jorgenson
in Felsenthal, 2011). Yet a perceivable end to US regional hegemony is far from
certain (Nye, 2010). Moreover, potential candidates are already jostling for primacy in the region. Along with Brasilias emerging power,
Chinas economic prowess is already allowing Beijing to challenge American influence all over the world (Rachman, 2011). As Latin
Americans are increasingly looking to China as an economic and political alternative to U.S.
[sic] hegemony, Washington is increasingly viewing the Asian giant as an emerging threat to US interests in Latin America (Hakim, 2006, pp
Venezuela has contributed to this trend; China is now Caracass

second largest trading partner after the US, courtesy of Chavez-era realignment policies (Smilde, 2013).
45-46).
Hence, neither resurgent US dominance or the the emergence of a new power like China can be ruled out for the continent- the latter partially
due to Venezuelan policy. However, none of this is indicative of a failure of Chavismo to confront the capitalist core. Rather, the Gramscian
concept of hegemony indicates that the rulers of a capitalist system

must maintain their own moral, political and cultural values as
societal norms (Hay, 1999 p 163). However, Hay (1999 p 163) quotes Milibrand as stating that hegemony depends not so
much on consent as on resignation; or convincing the oppressed that there are no alternatives to their oppression. In either case,
Venezuelas foreign policy efforts have contributed to a growing

regional aspiration for an alternative form of development in which humanity
deliberatively, directly, and democratically shapes society (Ponniah, 2011, p 293). There is, therefore, a compelling argument that
Venezuelas foreign policy framework of general deterrence and soft

balancing are both antithetical to US hegemony and the neoliberal
orientation of capitalism.
Maduro says no Washington securitizes and spies on

Venezuela too heavily for any good relations
Suspicion towards Washington is now deeply engrained in

Venezuelan political tradition. Throughout his presidency, Chavez often accused Washington of
plotting against him. His successor, Nicolas Maduro, has likewise alleged that he has been
targeted by an assassination plot backed by figures in the US (Robertson,
2013(1)). Crane (2005) quotes Sweig as labelling these accusations as part of a rhetorical
tit for tat between Caracas and Washington; but there is more to it than such a
simplistic conclusion presumes. In Copenhagen-esque terms, speech acts play an important
role in converting something (anything potentially) into an existential threat to a specific referent
object (McDonald, 2008, p 69); hence securitising it in public discourse. As previously outlined, such discourse is not
without material justification. Alternatively, the cynic could label Chavez/Maduros rhetoric on the US as a mere attempt to
manufacture consent, but that would inarguably call Brownfields credibility into question. It would also require ignoring
policy pursued by the US that in conventional security terms would easily

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constitute as aggression, like its intensive spying on the Venezuelan

petroleum industry
(Pearson, 2013)
and sanctions on the Venezuelan state
arms manufacturer CAVIM (Orozco, 2013). Washingtons own securitisation in

Venezuelan (and arguably Latin American) political discourse is thus the outcome
of a long history of aggression that continues today. The notion that the US is at best apathetic
towards its southern neighbours, malicious at worst, is indeed very well substantiated by a long line of precedents.
Says no ALBA would veto and ensures balancing against

the US
Under the Bolivarian government, Venezuelas foreign policy has developed five main objectives: [p]romote multipolarity and Latin American integration, [c]onsolidate
and diversify Venezuelas international relations, [s]trengthen Venezuelas position in the international economy and [p]romote a new regime of hemispheric security
The Bolivarian
Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas (ALBA) is Venezuelas most
ambitious Latin American integration attempt, and its flagship soft
balancing project. Described by Chavez as a socially oriented trade bloc dedicated toward eradicating poverty (Corrales 2009, pp 97-114),
(Wilpert, 2007, p 152). All of these pillars of foreign policy contribute in some way to Venezuelas general deterrence policy.
since 2004 ALBA has grown from a joint Cuban-Venezuelan initiative to include nine countries (Borrero, 2013). While Venezuela has likewise pushed for greater
democratization [sic] of pre-existing institutions such as the UN (Wilpert, 2007, p 153), it has also been cultivating ALBA as an alternative to established international
bodies. More precisely,
ALBA offers an alternative to US backed regional
initiatives
like the shelved Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) by prioritising the states role in development and promoting social welfare over that of
the free market or the corporation (Williams, 2011, pp 262-263). According to Wilpert (2007, p 155), The basic idea of ALBA is modeled [sic] to some extent after the
European Union. Poorer countries would receive development aid from [ALBA's Compensation Fund], while wealthier nations would have to contribute to this fund.
Some of ALBAs initiatives so far have included a development bank with over US$1 billion in capital for humanitarian and social welfare projects, a long standing doctorsand-teachers-for-oil deal between Cuba and Venezuela that has seen Venezuela eradicating illiteracy and providing free healthcare to millions of people, a housing and
education project for Nicaraguas 47,000 street children along with five major agricultural projects that are producing soy beans, rice, poultry, and dairy products
(Hattingh, 2008). Furthermore, social movements within member countries are directly involved in the planning and administration of ALBA through their own
representative council (Hattingh, 2008). ALBA member countries have also actively pushed for an alternative to the World Banks International Center for Settlement of
Investment Disputes (ICSID), due to the the predilection of ICSID to rule in favor [sic] of corporations (Beeton, 2013). ALBA is far from the only Venezuelan soft balancing
initiative. During the Chavez administration, Petrocaribe was established to deliver subsidized [sic] oil from Venezuela to the small states of the Caribbean, and
Venezuela began financing regional news network Telesur, which is designed to offer an alternative to other cable channels like BBC and CNN (Hakim, 2006, 44). Critics
deride many of these initiatives as lacking in transparency, suffering a lack of long term planning and undercutting previous efforts to build more decentralized [sic]
decision-making procedures (Feinberg, 2007). Nonetheless, Venezuelas aid is hard to refuse because it comes with very few conditions (Corrales 2009, pp 97-114).
Moreover, given that the structural adjustment policies of the Bretton Woods institutions have produced an abundance of failures in the developing world, (Schatz, 1994 pp
Washington, however, has

been excluded from these initiatives, as the US is too powerful and
would overwhelm and thus exploit its weaker southern partners if it
were included (Wilpert, 2007, p 154). In Latin America, Venezuelas soft balancing game is
679-692) the popularity of Venezuelas alternatives are hardly surprising, despite their critics.
multi-faceted , and growing. However, to assume that Venezuela is merely

attempting to forge a conventional alliance is to miss the point. Among the
multitude of acronyms there is an obvious long-term goal; the forming of a
cohesive collective actor. Morgan (2003, p 174) defines a collective actor as a cluster of states established and designed to decide
and act for the general welfare. Morgan (2003, pp 83, 174) argues that collective actors differ from conventional alliances as they act
for the collective good, as opposed to pursuing member interests only, citing the United Nations and the new North Atlantic Treaty
Organisation (NATO) as examples. The latter appears somewhat questionable. Its hard to believe NATO was acting in the interests of the common good as far back as its
intervention in the former Yugoslavia, where NATO troops may have committed numerous war crimes (AI, 2000). Even in its latest humanitarian intervention, NATO has
failed to acknowledge dozens of civilian casualties from air strikes during its 2011 Libya campaign, and has not investigated possible unlawful attacks (HRW, 2012).
Venezuelan regional integration efforts like ALBA tend to

emphasise ideals like creating networks of solidarity (Artaraz, 2011, p 88-105). Such
Comparatively,
networks are not necessarily based on material reciprocity. At Venezuelas Dr Salvador Allende Latin American School of Medicine (Escuela Latinoamericana de Medicina
Dr. Salvador Allende) students studying medicine for free have told Venezuelan media that would never have been able to afford such studies otherwise (Mora, 2010). In
2011, a joint Cuban-Venezuelan project saw the opening of the first high school in Western Saharas refugee camps (EFE, 2011). More recently, Venezuela and Cuba
extended Miracle Mission International to the West Bank to provide free eye surgery (the mission provides such free treatment in many other parts of the developing
world), while at the same time the Maduro administration announced what it described as a solidarity oil deal with the Palestinian Authority (Robertson, 2013(3)).
Venezuelan solidarity isnt limited to the developing world though. In the US, Citgo (the US subsidiary of state owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA))
has stated that its US$400 million heating oil program has helped more than 1.7 million Americans, including native communities (Gonzalez, 2013). Furthermore, although
it was rejected by the Bush administration, Venezuela was among the first to offer the US aid in the wake of Hurricane Katrina (Campbell, 2005). Just a few years after the
2002 coup, Venezuelas response to Hurricane Katrina would appear inconsistent if purely viewed as a component of what The Economist (2013) has described as an
anti-American alliance of like-minded leaders and client states

reinforced by populism at home. However, Bolivarianism is nothing of the sort.

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If he accepts, hell get destroyed politically.

Shifter 13
Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign
Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign
Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. A Bolivarian Dream Deferred Foreign
Policy, June 24, 2013 http://thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3338
It makes sense for Venezuela to reach out to the United States, but at
least in the short term, Maduro will have a tough time holding back on
strident, anti-American rhetoric . For political survival, he needs
to prove his Chavista bona fides to the base that brought him to the
presidency. Whatever happens abroad, Maduro will be increasingly
consumed by Venezuela's staggering problems at home. Chavez left a country devoid of
institutions. Instead, he bequeathed cronies like Maduro who has so far been able to
his
fend off criticism from his neighbors but is hardly in a position to lead the
kind of broad ideological movement that Chvez was able to cobble
together in his glory days.

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1NC VSN Iran/Hezbollah QPQ

Venezuela says no to anything over Iran or Hezbollah
they hate US aggression and false accusations, AND the
issue is not a threat.
Venezuelan
government has increasingly pursued a policy of deterrence aimed
at mitigating perceived state security risks posed by the US . Yet the threat
In either case, given historical context, its not at all surprising that in recent years the
isnt reciprocal. A comprehensive examination of the threat posed by Venezuela to the US is beyond the scope of this
if Venezuela poses any threat to the US, it has been greatly

exaggerated in common discourse. Indeed, prior to 2002 Venezuelas contribution to the
essay, though
collapse of bilateral diplomatic cosiness consisted primarily of opposition to the US invasion of Afghanistan and the
increase in internal opposition to Chavez (Nagel, 2003). These two factors dont seem comparable to Washingtons long
resume of aggression briefly discussed above, hence necessitating the construction of a new, anti-Chavez securitising
the US. Discourse like that of Noriega, who has accused the Venezuelan
government and Hezbollah of collaborating to engage in
asymmetrical warfare against U.S. [sic] security, interests and
allies close to the homeland (Noriega, 2013). Suchlicki (2012) likewise argues that
Venezuelas growing relations with Iran and Chvez support for
terrorist groups both in the Americas and the Middle East should
worry the U.S [sic]. Furthermore, according to Berman (2013) Irans extensive, evolving operations in the
hemisphere could soon pose threats to US allies in the region and to the U.S.[sic] homeland itself. Such
conceptual constructs may be more amicable to US policy, though
discourse in
none of it is actually taken seriously by Washington, and with good

reason . According to a June 2013 US State Department report, Iran isnt supporting any
terrorist cells in Latin America, and its influence in the region is
waning (Goodman, 2013). The fictional Caracas-Tehran-Beirut-terror
connection has been therefore deemed of no practical value by US
regime elites. On the other hand, the Venezuelan government
appears to continue to view the US as a threat. In September 2013, Maduro
went as far as cancelling his first trip as president to a session of the
United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), claiming former US officials planned on hatching a
plot against him, possibly with the knowledge of the White House (Mallett-Outtrim, 2013). Despite the best efforts of the
Noriega types to reify the intangible,
there is still only one aggressor.

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1NR VSN XT: ALBA

1NC #3 is a separate say no argument:
A) Extend 1NC Outtrim Venezuela would say no due to
the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas, or
ALBA. ALBAs an organization spearheaded by Venezuela
to counter the US with Cuba. It produces diplomatic
leverage against the US and it would veto any US
cooperation. ALBA sees US as exploiting of South
America, and its a direct attack against US free trade
policy.
B) ALBA is very pro-Chavez
Fuentes 13 (Federico Fuentes, researcher at Center for Research on
Globalization, Latin Americas Social Movements and the ALBA Alliance,

http://www.globalresearch.ca/latin-americas-social-movements-and-the-albaalliance/5336550, Keerthi, Acc 12/31/13)
The document defines ALBA as essentially a political, anti-neoliberal and
anti-imperialist project. It is based on the principles of cooperation, complementarity and
solidarity, that seeks to accumulate popular and institutional forces for a new declaration of Latin American
independence. It
is a movement of peoples and for peoples, for peoples

integration, for life, justice, peace, sovereignty, identity, equality,
for the liberation of Latin America, through an authentic emancipation that envisions
Indo-Afro-American socialism. The assembly also adopted the name Hugo
Chavez in honour of the recently deceased Venezuelan president ,
who together with Cuban leader Fidel Castro first proposed ALBA.
C) ALBA and Maduro hate the US territorial expansion,

resource explotation, militarization, helping coups, and
international initiatives.

However, the newly formed Continental Coalition of Social Movements towards ALBA was clear in
identifying its main enemy: US imperialism. The final document
notes that since the onset of the global economic crisis, the US has unleashed an even
greater imperialist counteroffensive across the continent, expressed
through an increased presence of transnationals in our territories;
the plundering of our natural resources and the privatization of
social rights; the militarization of the continent, the criminalization
and repression of popular protest; US involvement in coups in
Honduras and Paraguay; the permanent destabilization of
progressive Latin American governments; the attempt to recover
political and economic influence through initiatives such as the

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Pacific Alliance and other international agreements. Within this context marked
by an imperialist offensive on the one hand, but also by the opening up of new possibilities in the direction of the project
outlined by the ALBA governments, coordination among social movements across the continent is more necessary than
ever. A number of proposals were adopted including the creation of a publishing house,
establishment of a network of ALBA movement media outlets, and continent-wide days of action against the occupation of
in support of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and the

Bolivarian revolution, against militarisation, and in defence of the environment.
Haiti,
D) ALBAs official declaration proves

Below is a translation of the final declaration of the Assembly .* * * From
the 16th to the 20th of May, at the Florestan Fernandes National School, in the municipality of Guararema,
state of So Paulo, Brazil, we more than 200 delegates representing womens, peasant, urban,
indigenous, student, youth, workers and agro-ecological movements and organisations from 22 countries
made up the First Continental Assembly of Social Movements towards ALBA (The Bolivarian Alliance for the
Peoples of Our Americas). We came here as part of a historic process that has seen us unite in forums,
campaigns, international networks, sectorial organisations and diverse struggles within our countries,
raising the same banners of struggle and sharing the same dreams for real social transformation. We are
living through a new epoch in Our Americas, which over the last few years has expressed itself in diverse
mobilisations and popular rebellions, attempts to overcome neoliberalism and in the construction of an
alternative society which is just and inclusive, something that is now both possible and necessary. The
defeat of the FTAA (Free Trade Agreement of the Americas) in 2005 was evidence of the
existence of social movement resistance and a new continental geopolitical
configuration, characterized by the emergence of popular
governments that have dared to confront the empire . Its most advanced
element in this regard, launched in 2004 by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, is today called the Bolivarian
ALBA is essentially a political, antineoliberal and anti-imperialist project, it is based on the principles
of cooperation, complementarity and solidarity, that seeks to
accumulate popular and institutional forces for a new declaration of
Latin American independence, a movement of peoples and for peoples, for peoples
Alliance for the Peoples of Our Americas (ALBA).
integration, for life, justice, peace, sovereignty, identity, equality, for the liberation of Latin America,
through an authentic emancipation that envisions Indo-Afro-American socialism.

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1NR VSN XT: Diplomat Expulsion

Maduro says no expulsion of diplomats makes
relations impossible.
Moran 13 (Clay Moran, International Affairs Review at the Elliott School of
International Affairs, Oct 28 2013, The Future of U.S.-Venezuelan Relations,

http://www.iar-gwu.org/node/513, Keerthi, Acc 12/31/13)
Yankees, go home! These were President Nicolas Maduros words on
September 30th as he expelled three U.S. diplomats, including Charg d'Affaires Kelly
Keiderling, accusing them of plotting to sabotage Venezuelas electrical grid. While news outlets
worldwide briefly reported on this incident, most failed to analyze the diplomatic turmoil within the larger context of U.S.-Venezuelan relations
and its potential impact on diplomatic cooperation. Over five hundred American companies have operations in Venezuela. Over $12 billion
was invested in Venezuelan in 2011, concentrated in the energy, financial, and manufacturing sectors. Venezuelan imports rose by 122
percent from 2000 to 2011, reaching $12.3 billion. Washington and Caracas have developed a trade relationship that both parties value: U.S.
companies gain substantial profit from operations in Venezuela, while Venezuelans gain access to higher quality job opportunities. Despite
political relations remain fractured at best. The United States and Venezuela
Chvez suspected the United
States of sponsoring a coup to overthrow his regime. Each country
has retaliated against the other through a series of diplomatic
expulsions. Venezuela has also restricted commerce from leaving the country. Capital controls put corporations in a tricky
the large volume of trade,
have each been without ambassadors since 2010, when then-President Hugo
situation, trapping an estimated $8 to $12 billion within the country. Current President Nicolas Maduro has no intentions of lifting these
controls, although Venezuela continues to experience inflation rising over 45 percent per month, threatening to erode profits. As a temporary
measure, corporations have begun reinvesting these profits into Venezuelan real estate. Domestic politics add another dimension to the
problem. Former President Chavez formed the Chavista coalition, which consists of an array of lower and middle class citizens aimed at
empowering workers and the urban poor. The bottom line is that Chavezs governing doctrine, Chavismo, has united unlikely groups into the
Chavista coalition due to favorable economic conditions. However, the erosion of economic stability due to rising inflation over the past year is
beginning to unravel the Chavista coalition, which is the very force that brought Maduro to power. This can be seen in the March 2013 special
presidential elections, in which the opposition lost by a margin of 1.5 percent. Maduros response has been to consolidate power by
expelling U.S.
diplomats while restricting U.S. profits does not bode well for
constructive bilateral relations. The best prospect for improving these relations is for Washington to send a
undermining his political opponents. Venezuela needs foreign firms to operate within the country, but
diplomatic convoy to Venezuela to meet with President Maduro and administration officials and discuss interests in attaining greater domestic
stability to maintain corporate operations. Furthermore, the United States must meet with European counterparts that conduct business
operations in Venezuela in order to establish a joint approach to address the rising political instability. Since Venezuela controls the domestic
climate for U.S. corporations, the U.S. should take the initiative in securing its business interests.

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1NR VSN XT: Domestic Politics Outweigh

Maduro would say no because he would get destroyed
politicallyA) Failure to continue Chavez legacy Extend Shifter 13 Maduros presidency is teetering. He is no Chavez, and
Chavez had a strict anti-American platform. Engaging the
US would consume Maduros domestic capital and ability
to maintain credibility kills his political career. Shifters
a professor of Latin American Studies. Prefer that to their
__.
B) Backlash from lower and middle class Chavista
coalitions
http://www.iar-gwu.org/node/513, Keerthi, Acc 12/31/13
Domestic politics add another dimension
Chvez formed
to the problem. Former President
the Chavista coalition , which consists of an array of lower and

middle class citizens aimed at empowering workers and the urban
poor.
Chvezs governing doctrine
has united unlikely
groups into the Chavista coalition due to favorable economic
conditions
which is the
very force that brought Maduro to power
Maduros response has been to consolidate power by
undermining his political opponents.
The bottom line is that
, Chavismo,
. However, the erosion of economic stability due to rising inflation over the past year is beginning to unravel the Chavista coalition,
. This can be seen in the March 2013 special presidential elections, in which the
opposition lost by a margin of 1.5 percent.
Venezuela needs foreign firms to operate within the country, but expelling U.S. diplomats while
restricting U.S. profits does not bode well for constructive bilateral relations. The best prospect for improving these relations is for Washington to send a diplomatic convoy to Venezuela to meet with President
Maduro and administration officials and discuss interests in attaining greater domestic stability to maintain corporate operations. Furthermore, the United States must meet with European counterparts that conduct
business operations in Venezuela in order to establish a joint approach to address the rising political instability. Since Venezuela controls the domestic climate for U.S. corporations, the U.S. should take the initiative
in securing its business interests. The Obama administration can also offer to negotiate the Iran Sanctions Act, which was enacted in 2011 against the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, because of
Venezuelas exports of reformate to Iran. These sanctions currently prohibit Venezuela from competing for U.S. government procurement contracts and receiving financing from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
Washington should negotiate with Caracas, maintaining the position that if Venezuelan currency controls are completely removed, the portions of the Iran Sanctions Act pertaining to Venezuela could be lifted an
Unless domestic turmoil subsides

.S.-Venezuela
relations proves to be a complex process
option that looks more plausible given the current U.S. Iran rapprochement.
enough to allow for secure
business operations in Venezuela, the likelihood of U.S. companies minimizing their business operations increases. Coupled with desolate diplomatic relations, revamping U
that will take time, cooperation, and concessions from both sides. A key opportunity to
improve relations does exist, but the United States must demonstrate to Maduro the vital role that U.S. companies continue to play for Venezuelas economy. Securing Venezuela as a quasi-ally will not only secure
longer-term U.S. business interests, but also give the U.S additional leverage in Latin America, a region that the Obama administration has neglected.
C) Public support is on the brink stats and the 2013

election prove
Caselli 12/29/13 (Irene Caselli, BBC, 29 December 2013, Venezuela
emerges from trying year, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america25496906, Keerthi, Acc 12/31/13)
It has been a difficult year for Venezuela. The country faced the absence and death of its
divisive president, Hugo Chavez, which resulted in fresh elections, contested results and
an economic crisis. Newly elected President Nicolas Maduro struggled to cope as Mr Chavez's successor,
while Venezuelans queued up for milk and toilet paper and were confronted with one of the world's highest
The opposition tried to capitalise on the country's

economic woes, hoping to prove that Mr Maduro was an illegitimate leader. All came to a
head on 8 December, when municipal elections were held. Normally a relatively low-key
inflation rates.
political event focused on local issues, this month's polls became a face-off to determine which side was

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stronger.
Official results showed that
coalition
654
Keerthi Gondi
54% of the vote went to the government
- 10 points more than the opposition coalition, which only got 44%.

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1NR VSN XT: Hate Neolib/US Heg

Extend 1NC Outtrim Venezuela hates US hegemony in
Latin America and neoliberal expansion and imperialism.
Venezuela teams with anti-american states like China and
Russia to counter US influence and engage in soft
balancing deterrence in cultural values Chavista
socialism is too entrenched to calibrate with US needs.
Say no hates US heg and neoliberalism
deterrence imperatives have played a major role in

shaping Venezuelan foreign policy . This is largely a response to US
Over the last decade general
imperialism. After decades of aggression against its southern neighbours, Washington is today
viewed by the Venezuelan state as a prime security threat . The threat
however, is not reciprocal despite efforts to securitise Venezuela as a belligerent in US discourse. However, even after
years of modernising its armed forces, the Venezuelan military plays an almost insignificant role in the countrys general
deterrence strategy, and are of a negligible threat to Washington. Instead of relying on military deterrence,
Venezuela has instead sought to soft balance the US through the

creation of international cooperative institutions. However, these
institutions are more than just conventional alliances, and merely
disregarding them as populist appeals is simplistic. Yet while the revolutionary
character of Venezuelan foreign policy remains unclear, it is evident that the countrys
deterrence policy is not only a bulwark against US imperialism in
Latin America, but is also ideologically incoherent with
neoliberalism.

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1NR VSN XT: Securitization

Extend 1NC Outtrim Venezuela and Maduro would say
no because they hate US surveillance and securitization
of Venezuela. The US unfairly portrays Venezuela as a
monster, resulting in false rhetorical switching. For
example, we spy on their oil industry and place sanctions
on their arms factories.

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1NR VSN Samantha Powers Stuff

Public statements from Maduro confirm he rejects US
cooperation
El Universal 13 (El Universal is a major Venezuelan newspaper, headquartered in Caracas
with an average daily circulation of about 150,000. Maduro: Venezuela will have "zero tolerance" for
aggressions of Washington July 20th http://english.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130720/madurovenezuela-will-have-zero-tolerance-for-aggressions-of-washington)
Maduro on Saturday described as "terminated" his

government-initiated talks with Barack Obama administration. He stressed he
would implement a "zero tolerance" policy for "aggressions" on
Venezuela. "My policy as president is zero tolerance for gringo
aggression against Venezuela. I am not going to stand any verbal
aggression against Venezuela, neither political nor diplomatic.
Enough is enough! Stay away with your empire. Do not mess any
more with Venezuela," said Maduro during a ceremony of military promotions in Cojedes
state, central Venezuela. The Venezuelan president also reiterated his rejection and
condemnation of the statements issued by Samantha Power, the Washington
ambassador nominee to the United Nations, on Venezuela. " When she went to Congress,
she went crazy and started to attack Venezuela just like that. She started to say
Venezuelan President Nicolas
that she is going to the UN to monitor and make clear what the repression on political and civil institutions
Maduro
mentioned a phone call US Secretary of State John Kerry made to Venezuelan
Foreign Minister Elas Jaua. According to Maduro, the Venezuelan
foreign minister warned the US top diplomat that Venezuela will not
accept any pressures in connection with Caracas' offer to grant
asylum to former CIA agent Edward Snowden, who is charged with leaking classified information
in Venezuela is, and that she will address the lack of democracy in Venezuela."
on espionage programs.

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1NR VSN A2 Econ Outweighs Political

Ramifications
Even if the economic relationship can be sustainable,
political relations outweigh and corrupt economics
theyre bad.

http://www.iar-gwu.org/node/513, Keerthi, Acc 12/31/13)
Over five hundred American companies have operations in
Venezuela. Over $12 billion was invested in Venezuelan in 2011, concentrated in the energy, financial, and
manufacturing sectors. Venezuelan imports rose by 122 percent from 2000 to 2011, reaching $12.3 billion.
Washington and Caracas have developed a trade relationship that

both parties value: U.S. companies gain substantial profit from operations in
Venezuela, while Venezuelans gain access to higher quality job
opportunities. Despite the large volume of trade, political relations
remain fractured at best. The United States and Venezuela have each
been without ambassadors since 2010, when then-President Hugo Chavez suspected the
United States of sponsoring a coup to overthrow his regime. Each country has retaliated against the other through a series
of diplomatic expulsions.
Venezuela has also restricted commerce from leaving
the country. Capital controls put corporations in a tricky situation,

trapping an estimated $8 to $12 billion within the country. Current President Nicolas
Maduro has no
intentions of lifting these controls , although Venezuela continues to experience inflation rising
over 45 percent per month, threatening to erode profits. As a temporary measure, corporations have begun reinvesting
these profits into Venezuelan real estate.

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Venezuela Counternarcotics
Neg

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Topicality

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Solvency Answers
661
Keerthi Gondi

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Keerthi Gondi
1NC
Venezuelas already improving their counternarcotics
efforts the UN agrees.
Yustiz 13 (Orlando Rangel Yustiz, Venezuelan drug analyst, 4/23/13,
Venezuela intensified counternarcotics efforts during first quarter 2013,

http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/venezuela-intensified-counternarcoticsefforts-during-first-quarter-2013, Keerthi, Accessed 10/18/13)
.- The fight against drugs in Venezuela has been intensified
Caracas, 24 Abr. AVN
in the
country, as part of the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking, that Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro
has repeatedly said. Until the first quarter of this year, the various
Venezuelan security agencies managed to
seize more than 13 tons of drugs and destroy more than 20 illegal
drug laboratories, and capture more than 700 people linked to drug
trafficking.
Up to March 22 this year,
the number of different drugs seizures rose
to more than
13 tons, when the deputy director of the National Anti-Drug Office (ONA), Edilberto Molina Molina, reported the seizure of 4,190 kilos of cocaine, a process conducted in the Jesus Maria Semprum municipality in Zulia
state, as part of the operations of the Grand Mission Full Life Venezuela and the National Anti-Drug Plan 2009-2013. In this procedure, performed on March 19, it was able to destroy, with prior approval of the
Venezuela
destroyed
laboratories there were found tons of different chemicals, such as
ammonium sulfate, cement and phosphoric acid and 21,000 liters of
chemicals
the Bolivarian
National Guard
seized
drugs and placed people in
the custody of the MP for drug related offenses
Public Ministry (MP), 21 laboratories in five camps that were in
, located about 150 meters from the border with Colombia.
In
, as acetone, gasoline, paint thinners, ammonia, hydrochloric acid, sulfuric acid, and other materials used to process the drug.
(GNB) until March 22, had
Only
11,636 kilos of different types of
532
Other relevant seizures
Before this significant seizure
Venezuelan authorities had succeeded, the first two months of this year, in seizing 9 tons of different drugs. On 24 February, the then Minister for Interior and Justice, Nestor Reverol, reported the seizure of 5,094
kilograms of marijuana, by troops of GNB Border Detachment N 11, specifically the checkpoint known as The Trailer, located in the town of Urea, in Tachira state. The more than five tons of marijuana were
hidden in a false bottom of a fuel tanker truck, which came to Venezuela from Colombia. In the act, a person was arrested and placed in the custody of the Public Ministry. These five tons are added to the other
four which were seized until the first half of February, time by which, 577 safety procedures had been made and 714 people involved in drug trafficking were arrested: 25 foreigners and 689 Venezuelans. Another
important procedure which is worth highlighting is that of Feb. 8, in Apure State, where more than 1 ton of cocaine was seized, and also on February 14 in the state of Lara, nearly half a ton of marijuana was seized
plane
command
narcotics earth-to-air grid system was
created to detect illegal and unauthorized flights in Venezuela.
the procedure was done by troops
who found 433 kilos of marijuana
too. These more than 1,000 kilos of cocaine were found in a small plane flying over the Apure state and traveling without permission, with false registration. The
of the Bolivarian National Armed Forces, through the
was located by members of the
. This
Furthermore,
in Lara
4,
the
from Detachment 47 of the Bolivarian National Guard (GNB), belonging to the Regional Command No.
hidden in a 350 truck, in a routine procedure made at the point of control that this military component
has in the town of Tintorero, located in Lara state. The drugs were hidden in a false bottom of the vehicle, carrying fruit pulp. Sovereign fight Since 2006, after Venezuela suspended in 2005 the agreements
with DEA agency, the Government sovereign policies on drugs have allowed the seizure of 247.27 tons of cocaine, and in the 14-year Bolivarian rule, 671.86 tons of different drugs have been seized. Another
important achievement in the fight against drugs in Venezuela since 2006, has been the capture of 95 drug lords, 20 of them captured in 2012, including Daniel Barrera, known as "El loco Barrera", one of the drug
lords most sought of the world.
The United Nations Organization (UN) has certified
Venezuela as a territory free of illicit drug crops for seven

consecutive years.
U.S. action is not the problem Venezuela fails to

reciprocate meaning they cant solve.
GAO, their author, 9 (Government Accountability Office, July, DRUG
CONTROL U.S. Counternarcotics Cooperation with Venezuela Has Declined
Report to the Ranking Member, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate,
http://www.gao.gov/assets/300/292722.pdf) //JAG
While Venezuela has its own counternarcotics initiatives and says it does not need U.S. assistance, available data indicate
the lack of Venezuelan

counternarcotics cooperation with the United States is a significant
impediment to the U.S. capacity to interdict drugs en route to the United States. Moreover, if illegal armed
that drug trafficking through Venezuela is increasing. At a minimum,
groups continue to find safe haven in Venezuela and receive support from Venezuela, the permissive atmosphere and lack
However, as
Venezuelan officials have repeatedly stated, Venezuela is caught
of cooperation will likely adversely affect the security gains made in Colombia since 2000.

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between the worlds largest producer of cocaineColombiaand

largest consumer of cocainethe United States. Nevertheless, absent
greater initiative by the Venezuelan government to resume
counternarcotics cooperation with the United States, U.S. efforts to
address the increasing flow of cocaine through Venezuela will
continue to be problematic.
Increasing security in Venezuela doesnt solve --- multiple

reasons.
Smith,2k- Maj., USAF (Paul L., THE RELUCTANT HEGEMONCOUNTERDRUG
EFFORTS IN COLOMBIA, AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE)
The large international cocaine syndicates of yesteryear, such as the Medellin and Cali cartels, have been
basically destroyed. Today, the operations are mostly fragmented into a looser association of smaller, more
specialized trafficking groups which rarely number over 20. The traffickers, according to General
Serrano, Colombias national police chief, are not the flashy criminals with Rolex watches and gold chains
are mostly between 25-40 years in age,

seldom have criminal records, and work through legitimate small
businesses.14 In short, they are much more difficult to catch. Moreover,
drug traffickers are extremely adaptable, reacting to interdiction
successes by shifting routes and changing modes of transportation.
They have access to sophisticated technology and resources to
support their illegal operations.15 Likewise, smuggling methods continue
to develop and improve. One way recently discovered is termed black cocaine a mixture
that people have come to expect. They
of iron dust and charcoal that fools both the sniffer dogs and chemical detection tests.16 Besides more
officials have also found a more potent coca variety being

grown in parts9 of Colombia. This variety produces greater quantity of alkaloids, which
means it can produce more cocaine.17 Colombian drug traffickers are also diversifying and
acreage,
are becoming a main source of heroin for Eastern United States. Reportedly, many drug abusers prefer
Colombian heroin since it is especially pure, and can be snorted or smoked rather than injected.
Venezuela says no to the plan they see the US as

hypocritical, imperialist and morally abusive with
counternarcotics.
Minister of Peoples Power for Foreign Affairs 10 (Sept 20,
Venezuela Rejects U.S. Qualification on Counter-Narcotics,
http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5646, Keerthi, Accessed 10/18/13)
The Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela categorically rejects the abusive
and interventionist qualification of Venezuela as a country that has
failed demonstrably during the previous twelve months to adhere to their obligations under international
counternarcotics agreements. This determination was made by the U.S.
government in an irresponsible, unilateral, arbitrary manner and pretending
to serve as a judge of the fight against drugs globally. Additionally, Venezuela denounces the coercive
character of this measure and demands that all extra-territorial laws
that serve as the legal foundation for the imperialist U.S. state be
reviewed and derogated in accordance to Article 32 of the Charter of
Economic Duties and Rights of States (Resolution 3281, XXIX General Assembly of the United Nations,
December 12, 1974), which states: No State may use or encourage the use of economic, political or any other type of measures to coerce
another State in order to obtain from it the subordination of the exercise of its sovereign rights. The Government of the Bolivarian Republic
of
Venezuela considers that neither the U.S. government nor any of

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its institutions has the moral authority to judge the efforts of

independent states like the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela in the international fight against drug trafficking. The
U.S. government should take care of itself due to the enormous
internal problems that affect its people as well as its institutions, those which have turned the country into one of the
principal consumers of illegal drugs in the world, a heaven for the laundering of money earned from the trafficking of drugs and the worlds
To cite just a few examples, according to

international reports, the U.S. population faces the highest indices
of illegal drug consumption. Additionally, from the U.S., and with the
acquiescence of its institutions, drug production is contributing with
the business of the international trafficking of these substances. It is well known
internationally that the principal centers of production of marijuana in the world
are found in U.S. national parks and covert cultivation houses. At the same time,
criminal organizations located in the U.S. have specialized in the
production of emerging drugs like K-2, or synthetic marijuana, and genetically modified marijuana (with THC concentrations four
times above control samples), taking advantage of knowledge generated by U.S. think tanks. Moreover, the U.S.
financial system continues lending its services to criminal
organizations for the laundering of ill-gained capital, as demonstrated by Wachovia
primary producer of marijuana.
Bank, which admitted in March 2010 its participation in the laundering of U.S. $ 420 billion coming from Mexican drug trafficking groups.
For all of these reasons, the Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela considers
inadmissible that the U.S. government politically employ the issue of
the use and trafficking of illegal drugs to attack a democratic
government with an impeccable record in the fight against this
scourge, created by the U.S.s consumerist and capitalist way of life. It is also inadmissible that the U.S. government question the
policies that the sovereign Venezuelan state has implemented in this regard, those of which have presented a positive balance this year,
including the seizure of 46 tons of various drugs, the arrest of more than 7,000 people, and an effective legal persecution of these crimes that
exceeds international standards.
Say no statements from Venezuelan officials.

DOS 13 (2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March 5,
Bureau Of International Narcotics And Law Enforcement Affairs,

http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2013/vol1/204052.htm#Venezuela)//DLG
C. National Goals, Bilateral Cooperation, and U.S. Policy Initiatives
The Venezuelan government has maintained only limited, case-bycase counternarcotics cooperation with the United States since the
cessation of formal cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement
Administration in 2005. Since 2005, the United States has proposed that the Venezuelan
government sign an addendum to the 1978 U.S.-Venezuelan bilateral counternarcotics MOU that would
Venezuelan officials regularly made clear that

Venezuela would neither sign a bilateral agreement nor cooperate
with the United States on counternarcotics. The Venezuelan government
rarely shares information with the United States on money
laundering or drug trafficking. Since 2009, when former Interior and Justice
Minister El Aissami prohibited police officers from receiving training
abroad without the Ministry's prior approval, Venezuelan law enforcement
authorities have not participated in U.S.-sponsored counternarcotics
training programs. Bilateral cooperation with the United States in 2012 included of the
deportation of Puerto Rican Oscar Cali Martnez Hernandez to the United States. In 2012,
Venezuela detained four Colombian citizens who are wanted by the
United States and deported all but one of them to Colombia in
November.
allow for expanded cooperation.

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Alt cause to solvency- high corruption among government

officials
DOS 13 (2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March 5,
Bureau Of International Narcotics And Law Enforcement Affairs,
http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2013/vol1/204052.htm#Venezuela)//DLG
Public corruption continued to be a major problem in Venezuela and likely
bolstered the use of Venezuela by drug trafficking organizations to move and smuggle illegal drugs. As a
matter of stated government policy, the Venezuelan government does not encourage or facilitate illegal
activity associated with drug trafficking.
Senior government officials are, however, believed to

have engaged in drug trafficking activity. In 2008, the former Minister of Defense,
Henry Rangel Silva, the Vice Minister of Integrated Systems and Penal
Investigations; former Director of Military Intelligence, General Hugo
Armando Carvajal Barrios; and the former Minister of Interior and Justice , Ramon
Emilio Rodrguez Chacn, were designated by the U.S. Treasury Department as having assisted the
narcotics trafficking activities of the FARC. In 2011, the U.S. Treasury
Department designated four other senior government officials, including Major General
Cliver Antonio Alcala Cordones and National Assembly Deputy Freddy Alirio Bernal Rosales for acting
on behalf of the FARC. The Venezuelan government did not take action against these or other
government and military officials known to be linked to the FARC. The 2010 Organic Law on
Drugs imposes penalties, ranging from eight to 18 years in prison, on military and security
officials convicted of participating in or facilitating narcotics trafficking. In 2012,
however, there was no public information available regarding investigations of senior government officials
involved in drug trafficking.
Alt Cause we dont have ambassadors, which his a

prerequisite.
Sullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade
Division of CRS, 4-9-13 (Mark, Hugo Chavezs Death: Implications for
Venezuela and U.S. Relations Congressional Research Service,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf)
In the aftermath of the presidential election, there could be an opportunity for U.S.Venezuelan relations to get back on track. An important aspect of
this could be restoring ambassadors in order to augment
engagement on critical bilateral issues, not only on anti-drug,
terrorism, and democracy concerns, but on trade, investment issues,
and other commercial matters. With Chavezs death and an upcoming presidential
election, the 113th Congress is likely to maintain its strong oversight on the status of human rights and
democracy in Venezuela as well as drug trafficking and terrorism concerns, including the extent of
Venezuelas relations with Iran.

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2NC Say No
Say No 1. Venezuela has refused US efforts to cooperate over
drugs In the past.
DOS 10 (International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March, Bureau
for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs,
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/137411.pdf)//DLG
Venezuela has failed demonstrably to make sufficient efforts to meet
its obligations under international counternarcotics measures set
forth in Section 489(a) (1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as
amended. This Determination takes into account actions taken by the Government of Venezuela
during the past 12 months. Venezuela has ignored, or refused, the majority of
United States Government offers to work towards greater
cooperation on counternarcotics. An official letter from the U.S. Ambassador
on July 15, 2008, and a follow-up diplomatic note of March 11, 2009, requesting
facilitation of a meeting to discuss counternarcotics were not answered.
On May 13, 2009, Venezuelas National Anti-Drug Office (ONA) Director declined
to meet with the U.S. Charge dAffaires, informing the U.S. Embassy that the meeting would
require authorization from the Venezuelan President or the Foreign Minister. Venezuelas
importance as a transshipment point for drugs bound for the United States and
Europe continues to increase. Corruption within the Venezuelan
Government and a weak and politicized judicial system contribute to the
ease with which illicit drugs transit Venezuela. Trafficking through Venezuela
increased from an estimated 50 metric tons of cocaine in 2004 to an estimated 300 metric tons in 2008.
The ONA periodically reports seizures of illicit drugs, but the Venezuelan Government does not share the
necessary data or evidence needed to verify seizures or the destruction of illicit drugs. The U.S. Coast
Guard generally has received permission from the Government of Venezuela to board suspect Venezuelan
Venezuelan authorities, however, require

the return of confiscated vessels, people, and any contraband located during these
operations. Upon return to Venezuela, crew members are often
released.
flagged vessels operating in the Caribbean.
2. Venezuela refuses to cooperate with US over drugs due

to bad relations.
DOS 10 (International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March, Bureau
for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs,
http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/137411.pdf)//DLG
In 2005, the GOV stated that a renewal of bilateral counternarcotics cooperation depended on both parties
signing an addendum to the 1978 U.S.-GOV Bilateral Counternarcotics Memorandum of Understanding.
While the United States did not agree that the addendum was essential to ensuring appropriate
counternarcotics cooperation, the United States reached agreement with GOV officials on a mutually
Despite repeated assurances from senior

authorities and agreement on two signing dates, Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez has not yet authorized the signing of the addendum to the
MOU. The senior GOV officials who negotiated the addendum have since left
their positions, and their successors have publicly stated that the
GOV will neither sign a bilateral agreement nor cooperate with the
United States on counternarcotics. In March 2009, the GOV allowed representatives
acceptable version in December 2005.
GOV
from the U.S. Government Accountability Office
(GAO) to meet with the Venezuelan Attorney General.

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The Attorney General asked for reciprocity in
access for Venezuelan government representatives to
the GOV did not respond to a

diplomatic note from the United States offering to facilitate such a
visit. Throughout 2009, the GOVs Vice President and Minister of Interior
both routinely accused DEA of running an international drug
smuggling ring. President Chavez repeated the erroneous claim and
also suggested that the U.S. military was involved. President
Chavez also asserted that the United States permitted drug
smuggling to pacify its population. The lack of greater
counternarcotics cooperation reflects the general chilling of
conduct a similar visit to the United States.
However,
bilateral relations over the past few years. Given the GOVs refusal
to expand cooperation, the President determined in 2009, as in 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2005,
that Venezuela failed demonstrably to adhere to its obligations under
international counternarcotics agreements.
3. Public statements from Maduro confirm

El Universal 13 (El Universal is a major Venezuelan newspaper, headquartered in Caracas
with an average daily circulation of about 150,000. Maduro: Venezuela will have "zero tolerance" for
aggressions of Washington July 20th http://english.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130720/madurovenezuela-will-have-zero-tolerance-for-aggressions-of-washingto)
Maduro on Saturday described as "terminated" his

government-initiated talks with Barack Obama administration. He stressed he
would implement a "zero tolerance" policy for "aggressions" on
Venezuela. "My policy as president is zero tolerance for gringo
aggression against Venezuela. I am not going to stand any verbal
aggression against Venezuela, neither political nor diplomatic.
Enough is enough! Stay away with your empire. Do not mess any
more with Venezuela," said Maduro during a ceremony of military promotions in Cojedes
state, central Venezuela. The Venezuelan president also reiterated his rejection and
condemnation of the statements issued by Samantha Power, the Washington
ambassador nominee to the United Nations, on Venezuela. " When she went to Congress,
she went crazy and started to attack Venezuela just like that. She started to say
Venezuelan President Nicolas
that she is going to the UN to monitor and make clear what the repression on political and civil institutions
Maduro
mentioned a phone call US Secretary of State John Kerry made to Venezuelan
Foreign Minister Elas Jaua. According to Maduro, the Venezuelan
foreign minister warned the US top diplomat that Venezuela will not
accept any pressures in connection with Caracas' offer to grant
asylum to former CIA agent Edward Snowden, who is charged with leaking classified information
in Venezuela is, and that she will address the lack of democracy in Venezuela."
on espionage programs.
4. Maduro rejects cooperation - Anti-Americanism

sentiment is key to his credibility and power.
Labott 13 (Elise, U.S.-Venezuela relations likely to remain tense after
Chavez, March 6, CNN)
But in the words of one senior official,
road."
the outreach to Caracas has been a "rocky
Talks have been short on substance and never left U.S. officials with the feeling Venezuela was interested in
Maduro's first news conference, a good portion of which was devoted to railing
against the United States, was not very encouraging. As he prepares to stand in upcoming elections
to replace Chavez, Maduro's anti-American rhetoric is dismissed in the
mending fences.

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United States as political jockeying to shore up his political base.

This tried-and-true method of using America as straw man worked for
Chavez, which is why U.S. officials acknowledge that the campaign season
not be the best time to break new ground or expect tangible
progress. Officials say they will continue to speak out in favor of a more productive relationship between the two
countries, but the ball, officials say, is firmly in Venezuela's court. "The opportunities are not there yet for the U.S. to
engage" says Carl Meacham of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. " For
the next month or

so, Maduro has to show he is even more Chavez than Chavez was. That means he is
going to be more anti-American, more anti-capitalist, more antisystemic. As far as a rapprochement, I don't see it coming anytime
soon." How Venezuela conducts those elections will be a major test. For years Washington had accused Chavez and
his supporters of abusing the electoral system by intimidating opposition and controlling the media during his 14-year
rule. Now, the United States has made clear it expects a free and fair election in accordance with Venezuela's Constitution
it is unlikely his
death will dramatically affect ties in the near term . If, as expected, Maduro wins
the presidency, the new boss will likely be the same as the old one.
"Chavez's supporters and their Chavismo ideological movement were dealt a blow with the death of their
charismatic leader, but his ministers have been preparing for this transition, and the
challenge to all sides will be measured in weeks and months, not days" said
and charters. While Venezuela's relationship with the United States revolved around Chavez,
Dan Restrepo, who served as an adviser to Obama at the National Security Council during his first term. With crime at an
the new Venezuelan

government will be looking inward for the foreseeable future. "The U.S.
all-time high, continued drug-trafficking and a faltering oil sector, Meacham says
doesn't want to be in a situation where it is viewed at all as getting involved in domestic affairs of Venezuela," he says. "If
Maduro wins, he will be trying to keep the focus on domestic issues, and
that could put the resolve of Chavismo to the test. And that could
mean the hardest days between the U.S. and Venezuela is not
behind us, but ahead of us ."

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A2: US Officials Say Venezuela Says Yes

US claims that Venezuela wants to cooperate over
counternarcotics has empirically been wrong
GAO, 9 (Government Accountability Office, July, DRUG CONTROL U.S.
Counternarcotics Cooperation with Venezuela Has Declined Report to the

Ranking Member, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate,
http://www.gao.gov/assets/300/292722.pdf) //JAG
In mid-July, the U.S. Special Coordinator for Venezuela37 traveled to
Venezuela to meet with Venezuelan officials in an attempt to re-start
dialogue. The day prior to his trip, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State
for Western Hemisphere Affairs stated in congressional testimony that
Venezuela had for the first time in many years, expressed a
willingness to explore improved relations with the United States
[and] we have told Venezuela that we would like to explore this diplomatic
opening. When the Special Coordinator arrived in Caracas, however,
he was told that Venezuelan officials had cancelled all of his
appointments. In the end, he was only able to meet with one Venezuelan
legislator.

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A2: Economy Means They Say Yes

Venezuela will never cave to the US, not even for their
economy Snowden, Iran and Russia proves
Ogrady 13 - Mary O'Grady also frequently published as Mary Anastasia
O'Grady is an editor of the Wall Street Journal and member of the Wall
Street Journal Editorial Board since 2005, (Why Venezuela Offers Asylum to
Snowden, July 7, 2013,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732439940457859050385674
0838.html)//sawyer
His offer of refuge to Mr. Snowden is most easily explained as an attempt to
distract Venezuelans from the increasingly difficult daily economic
grind and get them to rally around the flag by putting a thumb in
Uncle Sam's eye. Yet there is something else.Venezuela has reason to fear
increasing irrelevance as North America becomes more energy independent.
This makes Iran crucial. Mr. Maduro may be trying to establish himself as a
leader as committed to the anti-American cause as was his predecessor,
Hugo Chavez, who had a strong personal bond with former Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He also needs to establish his own place in South
American politics.Reaching out to Mr. Snowden is a way to send a
message to the world that notwithstanding Secretary of State John
Kerry's feeble attempt at rapprochement with Caracas last month,
post-Chavez Venezuela has no intention of changing the course of the
Bolivarian revolution. Rather, as the economy of the once-wealthy oil nation
deteriorates, Mr. Maduro is signaling that Venezuela wants to become an
even more loyal geopolitical ally and strategic partner of Russia and Iran.

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1nc West Africa

Many alt causes to the West African drug trade star this
card.
--poor federal implementation, lack of funding, singular policies, no regional
cooperation, no civilian education on drugs, no NGO alliances, people idolize
drug lords b/c wealth.
Kyei 13 (Afia Asare Kyei is the Open Society Initiative for West Africas
(OSIWA) Law, Justice and Human Rights Programme Manager, February 2013,
Finding a Fix: The Rise of Drug Trafficking and Usage in West Africa
http://thinkafricapress.com/society/falling-fertile-grounds-rise-drug-traffickingand-role-csos-west-africa, Keerthi, Accessed 10/22/13)
Many factors may help explain continued shortcomings. Poor
implementation, lack of funding, and singularly focusing on
toughening punitive measures are all reasons to consider. Most policies
have narrowly focused on one dimension instead of employing a
multi-pronged approach. Apart from the absence of political will and a clear vision from West Africas
leaders, there has been a failure, or inability, to mobilise a critical mass
of the population to actively participate in the full length of the
process from inception to implementation, through to monitoring and review. At the regional and
national levels, the dual failures to build alliances with civil society ,
non-governmental and community-based organisations, or to
educate the populace, have been major missing elements in the fight
against narcotics trafficking and use. Most governments continue to treat the drug problem as the
exclusive domain of the state. Mere lip service is paid to engaging civil society. But civil society
organisations, including NGOs and community-based organisations, have an
important role in raising awareness and educating citizens. So far, only
token efforts have been made to provide information about the
health, socioeconomic, and security problems associated with drug
trafficking and consumption . In many countries, citizens unaware of the
harmful impact of drugs continue to idolise drug-lords and dream of
amassing their vast wealth, cruising around in flashy Hummers as so many drug barons do. Most
civil society groups currently lack the necessary expertise to make a meaningful
contribution to the fight. There is an ardent need to strengthen the capacity of civil society to monitor and report on drug
trafficking and other related crimes and to help implement the various regional and national action plans. Civil society
groups can engage the public including influential religious and traditional leaders and help facilitate public debate.
Both steps can make a huge difference in educating people about the impact of drugs.
Structural factors of West African society make the drug

trade inevitable.
-- Bad economic conditions, corruption, conflicts, bad borders, bad regulation,

no rule of law, poverty = crime to become wealthy, urbanization, society
based on natural resources.
Andres 2008 (Amado Philip de Andres, UN Office on Drugs and Crime Deputy Regional
Representative for West and Central Africa. Formerly, Legal Advisor at the Office of the Director, January,
UNISCI Discussion Papers, WEST AFRICA UNDER ATTACK: DRUGS, ORGANIZED CRIME AND TERRORISM AS

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THE NEW THREATS TO GLOBAL SECURITY, http://pendientedemigracion.ucm.es/info/unisci/revistas/UNISCI

%20DP%2016%20-%20Andres.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 10/22/13)
Harsh economic and social conditions, widespread corruption,

conflict and post conflict scenarios, porous borders, failing national
administrations, and a growing culture of impunity feed the
development of criminal practices in the region as well as the relevance of the
West African region in international criminal ventures. The inability by State actors to
systematically enforce the rule of law and guarantee the security of
individuals and economic stakeholders provides the most conducive
environment for the development of all sorts of criminal enterprises aimed at generating easy
profits at the expense of human beings and societal security. Differing according to their own ethnic
West African countries

have some of the lowest standards of living in the world in common. Thirteen out
situations, cultural backgrounds and endowments in natural resources,
of the fifteen members of ECOWAS2 are among the last 30 bottom-listed countries in the UNDP Human
Wide inequality in the distribution of wealth, unchecked

demographic growth associated to rapid, unplanned and often chaotic urbanization, are all
features common to West African societies, and factors contributing to
the increased relevance of crime and criminal activities as a viable and
profitable option for breaking the cycle of poverty4 . The very
structure of West African economies, based on exploitation of
natural resources (mining or single crop export oriented agriculture), coupled with a patrimonial
conception of the State, contribute too in creating an enabling environment
within which disrespecting existing laws and using institutional
prerogatives for private goals are not only justified, but considered
as an indicator of power. All such factors also attract unscrupulous economic operators,
Development index of 20063.
facilitate the establishing and development of local and transnational criminal networks, and promote the
rooting of a cultural model under which money can buy everything including impunity, political power,
social consideration and respectability.
Their West African terror scenario is non-unique

Andres 2008 (Amado Philip de Andres, UN Office on Drugs and Crime Deputy Regional
Representative for West and Central Africa. Formerly, Legal Advisor at the Office of the Director, January,
UNISCI Discussion Papers, WEST AFRICA UNDER ATTACK: DRUGS, ORGANIZED CRIME AND TERRORISM AS
THE NEW THREATS TO GLOBAL SECURITY, http://pendientedemigracion.ucm.es/info/unisci/revistas/UNISCI
%20DP%2016%20-%20Andres.pdf, Keerthi, Accessed 10/22/13)
Terrorism is not new to North and West Africa. The region as a whole has
been affected by a range of ethno-nationalist and religious conflicts , a
number of which have been accompanied by highly destructive campaigns of terrorism. The civilian carnage wrought by
the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) in Algeria is one of the more graphic
examples, although more limited campaigns have also been associated with the Christian/Muslim communal
conflict in Nigeria, Tuareg insurgent violence in Mali, and the Casamance struggle in Senegal. While much of the terrorist
violence in the region revolves around specific catalytic events (such as the annulment of the Islamic Salvation Fronts
electoral victory in Algeria in 1992 and the institution of Shariah law in Nigerias northern states in 2000), institutional
weakness, 220 World Central, Eastern Europe & CIS Latin America & Caribbean East Asia and the Pacific Arab States
All developing countries South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa West Africa OECD US$ in PPP UNISCI Discussion Papers, No
16 (Enero / January 2008) ISSN 1696-2206 a
utocratic governance and economic marginality have all provided an
These various
manifestations of terrorist violence have had a notable impact on
stability throughout the sub-region. At the national level, it has played a
prominent role in polarizing sub-national ethnic and religious
identity, leading to highly divisive societies that have been unable to forge institutional
environmental context that is highly conducive to political violence and extremism.
structures for peaceful communal coexistence. Nigeria provides a graphic case in point, suffering over the last decade
from an increasingly serious Christian- Muslim gulf borne of what is rapidly becoming an entrenched culture of extremist
sectarian mobilization and violence38. Equally as indicative is Algeria, where viscous campaigns waged by the GIA, the
Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) and associated splinter groups over the last two decades have torn and,
terrorism
has discouraged foreign investment and tourism as well as
arguably destroyed, much of the underlying social fabric holding the country together39. Economically,

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necessitated the re-allocation of scarce resources away from

productive uses.

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1nc FARC
FARC is weak and have no influence squo solves
Felbab-Brown 12 - senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century
Security and Intelligence in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings(Vanda,
FIGHTING THE NEXUS OF ORGANIZED CRIME AND VIOLENT CONFLICT WHILE
ENHANCING HUMAN SECURITY, Apr 19, 2012,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/4/19%20drugs
%20instability%20felbabbrown/0419_drugs_instability_felbabbrown.pdf)
Colombia today provides a clear example. Without doubt, the legitimacy of the leftist guerrilla
group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
[FARC])
is, after decades of conflict, at an all-time low. The sources of this

decline of political capital are multiple. The political ideology of the
group is largely moribund both as a result of global changes and the
decline of socialist ideologies as well as the aging and isolation of
the FARCs intellectual leadership.8 The FARC today is under severe
pressure from the Colombian military . The brutality of the guerrilla group toward the
rural population has progressively increased in the 1990s and 2000s as it competed with rightist
paramilitaries. At the same time, the group systematically failed to protect the rural and urban
populations against coercion and massacres by the equally and perhaps even more brutal paramilitary
groups. Finally, as a result of the demise of the Medelln and Cali cartels in the mid-1990s and the growth
the FARC due to its progressive penetration of the drug trade, the leadership
decided to eliminate many traffickers from the territories it
controlled and take over their trafficking roles in those territories.9
By doing so, the group inadvertently eliminated a key source of its
political capital. Instead of bargaining on behalf of the cocaleros (coca farmers) for better prices
in strength of
for coca paste and mitigating and regulating other forms of the traffickers abuse against the cocaleros as
it used to do in the 1980s and early 1990s when independent traffickers were present,10 the FARC put
itself in the position of the brutal monopolist that sets prices, limits the customers to whom the
population can sell coca paste and base, and inflicts abuse on the rural population.11
FARC is not a threat no Middle East connections

Felbab-Brown 12 - senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century
Security and Intelligence in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings(Vanda,

FIGHTING THE NEXUS OF ORGANIZED CRIME AND VIOLENT CONFLICT WHILE
ENHANCING HUMAN SECURITY, Apr 19, 2012,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/4/19%20drugs
%20instability%20felbabbrown/0419_drugs_instability_felbabbrown.pdf)
Clearly, the United States has an interest in Colombias enhanced security, prosperity, and human
rights promotion. But that countrys violent armed groups have not greatly
threatened U.S. security interests beyond the FARCs shooting at
spraying planes and oil pipelines belonging to U.S. companies. The
three U.S. contractors held by the FARC went through a terrible ordeal, and their rescue in 2008 was a
neither the FARC nor the other leftist guerrilla group, the Ejrcito
have sought to conduct a
terrorist campaign against U.S. citizens and major U.S. assets or attack the U.S.
homeland. Allegations of al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah contacts with
the FARC or these groups penetration of the Latin American drug
trade have not proven to be a serious menace.26
joyful moment. But overall,
de Liberacion Nacional (National Liberation Army [ELN]),

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FARC Declining Now

Valencia, research fellow @ the Council on Hemispheric
Affairs, 12
(Robert, July 3, pg. http://yalejournal.org/2012/07/colombia-and-farc-will-theinternal-conflict-reach-an-end/)
Though FARC still poses some degree of threat to the Colombian population,
the revolutionary force no longer has the clout it possessed decades
ago. The deaths of its rank and file members, its dwindling military
power, and mounting rejection from Colombians leave little option
for FARC but to reach a peaceful yet uneasy end to the conflict.
Otherwise, the Santos administrationand perhaps ensuing
administrationswill continue using cutting-edge weaponry that has
so damaged FARC while utilizing civilian means to encourage
guerrilleros to leave the organizations ranks and reintegrate into
Colombian society.

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1nc EU
New EU-US free trade agreement already solving EU
economic growth.
Straus 13 (Ira, U.S. Coordinator, Committee on Eastern Europe and Russia in NATO; and Fulbright
Professor of International Relations in Moscow, 7/31/13, TTIP: Not Like Any Other Regional Free Trade
Agreement, http://www.atlantic-community.org/-/ttip-not-like-any-other-regional-free-trade-agreement,
Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi, acronyms: OECD- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
NAFTA- North American Free Trade Agreement, ANZ-Australia-New Zealand FTA, OSCE- Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, WTO- World Trade Organization, GATT- General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade)
TTIP offers more geopolitical hopes -- for stabilizing the world order
and gradually, peacefully assimilating China and others into it -- than dangers. We should try to
consummate an agreement rapidly, (a) before new economic crises
can bring another global economic downturn that could sink both intra-EU and
trans-Atlantic ties in the gloom and nationalism; and (b) while Obama is in
office, as he will have greater ease than a Republican in getting it
ratified over the objections to trade and to Atlanticism from much of his base. Speed
being of the essence, it is less important for the agreement to be complete than for it to leave space for further
development. There can always be another round, as in WTO. Harmonization is being discussed of
TTIP with other trade spaces. This should focus first on the rest of the extended
Atlantic or OECD space, through harmonization with the co-emerging TransPacific Partnership (TPP) and NAFTA . Since the US and EU already have
special trade and security arrangements with Japan, S. Korea, ANZ, Canada, and other
countries in the Asia-Pacific region, this is both necessary and readily feasible. With time, TTIP
and TPP should be linked or merged into a globe-spanning economic space, serviced institutionally by OECD and G7-8. Subsequent
enlargement could bring in other regions, starting with the rest of

the extended European space that is in OSCE; with the understanding that, in order not to
undermine what has been achieved, they will need to arrive at a sufficient degree of sociological and political interoperability, not just shared
Since the entire world is modernizing, eventually this is

likely to mean it will encompass the entire world. Until then, the integrated grouping will
trading interests.
remain one of the ever-present two tiers of the international trading system, the other being WTO; akin to stalactites and stalagmites which
This is nothing new; the Atlantic was the core of GATT

from the start, providing impetus and stability to the global trading
system. The overhasty extension of GATT in recent decades to
insufficiently integrable countries is one of the reasons why the
inner grouping must now re-form itself as a concrete entity.
eventually meet and merge.

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1nc Colombia
Alt cause of enforcement and - Turn US intervention in
Colombian counternarcotics proliferates the drug trade.
DeShazo et al. 09 (Peter DeShazo, the Executive Director of LASPAU.
Before joining LASPAU, he was the director of the Americas Program at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, AB from Dartmouth College
and a PhD in Latin American history from the University of Wisconsin at
Madison, Joanna Mendelson Forman, Phillip McLean, Countering Threats to
Security and Stability in a Failing State Lessons from Colombia
http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/Lessons_from_Colombia.pdf, Keerthi, Acc
10/22/13)
From the rise of the Medellin cartel in the late 1970s until the advent
of Plan Colombia in 1999, narcotics constituted the overwhelmingly
dominant factor in the United States relationship with Colombia.
U.S. policy emerged from the international war on drugs first declared by
President Richard Nixon in 1973 and carried on by subsequent administrations. Increased attention was paid to the
Andean region in general and Colombia specifically as that country became the centerpiece of world cocaine trafficking
and then production and as domestic consumption of cocaine powder and crack cocaine surged in the United States.
Colombias internal armed conflict and the weakening of legitimate

state authority took a back seat to the narcotics issue in terms of
U.S. interest until the late 1990s. That outlook began to change
among Colombia watchers at the U.S. State Department and the
Defense Department as the Colombian government appeared to be
on the brink of implosion in the face of the military gains of the FARC and ELN
and a surge in the strength of the paramilitaries, all fed by the rapid expansion of the narcotics business. By 1998, it was
even though
narcotics played a central role in Colombias downward spiral, the
underlying factor was the weak sovereign presence of the Colombian
government and its inability to enforce the rule of law. In response, the United
clear to an increasing number of key policymakers within the executive branch that
States worked with President Andrs Pastrana to design Plan Co- lombia and to prepare an assistance package to support
it. However, although the Plan Colombia document released by Pastrana in 1999 contained 10 points, only one of which
dealt specifically with narcotics, U.S. legislation providing emergency supplemental support to Colombia was overwhelmingly focused on counter-drug efforts. Despite a subsequent reorientation of U.S. assistance toward support for
broader security initiatives in Colombia, including counterinsurgency, Plan Colombia in the eyes of the U.S. public was
success or failure of U.S. assistance to

Colombia would be judged by the outcome of that war. Many
consider that outcome to have been a failure, citing production figures for coca leaf
and cocaine, while others link counter-drug efforts to what they consider
worsened human rights and social conditions in the country.1 Critics
of U.S. policy point to the far larger share of bilateral assistance to
Colombia in the security and counter-drug areas compared to
spending on economic development, governance, or humanitarian assistance as
misguided and ineffective. Another frequently held view is that while U.S. assistance has helped
improve the overall security situation in Colombia, U.S. counter-drug support has not
synonymous with the war on drugs, and the
achieved a positive outcome.2

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TTIP AFF Cards

TTIP would be the pinnacle of free trade- its the largest
agreement ever, is key to the global economy, prevents
protectionism, and integrates most major economic
powers- the plan is key.
Boskin 13 (Michael J., professor of economics at Stanford University and
senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, was chairman of George H. W. Bush's
Council of Economic Advisers, 7/24/13, Trans-Atlantic trade gets set to go
global, http://www.praguepost.com/opinion/16810-trans-atlantic-trade-getsset-to-go-global.html, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
Negotiations have now commenced between the United States and the European Union on the Transatlantic
Trade and Investment Partnership ( TTIP), potentially the largest regional free-trade
agreement in history . If successful, it would cover more than 40 percent of
global GDP and account for large shares of world trade and foreign
direct investment. The United States and EU have set an ambitious goal of completing negotiations by the end of 2014.
Historically, however, most trade agreements have taken much longer to complete. The scale of the TTIP is
enormous . With Croatia's accession at the beginning of July, the EU now consists of 28
member states, each of which has its own particular set of special
interests pressing for trade promotion or protection, based on comparative advantage, history and raw domestic political power.
Moreover, the desired scope of the agreement is vast, complicating the process further. The
TTIP would eliminate all trade tariffs and reduce nontariff barriers,
including in agriculture, expand market access in services trade,
bring about closer regulatory harmonization, strengthen intellectualproperty protection, restrict subsidies to state-owned enterprises
and more. This all but guarantees difficult talks ahead. Expanding trade boosts income, on
average, in all the countries involved . Economists estimate that global free trade, enabled
by many successful rounds of multilateral talks, has boosted worldwide income substantially. Regional free-trade
agreements (FTAs), such as the TTIP, do so as well, but some of the gains may come at the expense of other trade partners.
Within each country, despite net gains, there are also some losers. The best way to deal with the
economic, political and humanitarian concerns raised by trade agreements is via transition rules,
temporary income support and retraining, as opposed to maintaining protectionist
barriers. The gains from such pacts stem from a variety of factors, the most important of which is comparative advantage:
Countries specialize in producing the goods and services that they are relatively most efficient at producing and trade these goods and
Economies of scale and other factors are also important.
services for others.

As
the scope of trade liberalization shrinks, so do the benefits - more than proportionally. Estimates of the annual gains from a fully realized TTIP
are $160 billion for the EU and $128 billion for the United States. UK Prime Minister David Cameron predicts 2 million new jobs. And a
noninflationary boost to growth in a weak global economy would be particularly timely. But the devil is in the details. Tariffs are generally
It is vital to remove nontariff

barriers, such as localized rules and restrictions not based on
scientifically legitimate safety or health concerns, despite political
pressure to maintain or tighten them. Limiting the scope of trade and investment covered by the TTIP
modest already, so gains from their further reduction would be modest, as well.
would likewise reduce the benefits. The TTIP is being divided into 15 specific working groups. While the negotiations are new, the issues
separating the two sides are long-standing and widely known. One of the most difficult is the EU's limitation of imports of genetically modified
foods, which presents a major problem for U.S. agriculture. Another is financial regulation, with U.S. banks preferring EU rules to the more
stringent framework emerging at home (such as the much higher capital standards for large banks recently proposed by America's financial
regulators). Several other serious disagreements also stand in the way of a comprehensive deal. For example, U.S. pharmaceutical
companies have stronger intellectual-property protection at home than in the EU. Entertainment will become increasingly contentious with
online distribution of films. And the anachronistic 1920 Jones Act requires cargo carried between U.S. ports to be shipped only on American
ships (recall the confusion about the possibility of foreign ships coming to help during the BP Gulf oil spill). Safety regulations and restrictions

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The TTIP is not just about

the United States and the EU. Mexico already has an FTA with the EU,
and Canada is negotiating one. At some point, NAFTA and TTIP will need to be
on foreign control of companies in sensitive industries are further points of contention.
harmonized.
Now is key for TTIP. It would harmonize with other

economic institutions, benefits are feasible, and NAFTA
incorporation is necessary- empirically proven.
Straus 13 (Ira, U.S. Coordinator, Committee on Eastern Europe and Russia in NATO; and Fulbright
Professor of International Relations in Moscow, 7/31/13, TTIP: Not Like Any Other Regional Free Trade
Agreement, http://www.atlantic-community.org/-/ttip-not-like-any-other-regional-free-trade-agreement,
Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi, acronyms: OECD- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
NAFTA- North American Free Trade Agreement, ANZ-Australia-New Zealand FTA, OSCE- Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, WTO- World Trade Organization, GATT- General Agreement on Tariffs
and Trade)
TTIP offers more geopolitical hopes -- for stabilizing the world order
and gradually, peacefully assimilating China and others into it -- than dangers. We should try to
consummate an agreement rapidly, (a) before new economic crises
can bring another global economic downturn that could sink both intra-EU and
trans-Atlantic ties in the gloom and nationalism; and (b) while Obama is in
office, as he will have greater ease than a Republican in getting it
ratified over the objections to trade and to Atlanticism from much of his base. Speed
being of the essence, it is less important for the agreement to be complete than for it to leave space for further
development. There can always be another round, as in WTO. Harmonization is being discussed of
TTIP with other trade spaces. This should focus first on the rest of the extended
Atlantic or OECD space, through harmonization with the co-emerging TransPacific Partnership (TPP) and NAFTA . Since the US and EU already have
special trade and security arrangements with Japan, S. Korea, ANZ, Canada, and other
countries in the Asia-Pacific region, this is both necessary and readily feasible. With time, TTIP
and TPP should be linked or merged into a globe-spanning economic space, serviced institutionally by OECD and G7-8. Subsequent
enlargement could bring in other regions, starting with the rest of

the extended European space that is in OSCE; with the understanding that, in order not to
undermine what has been achieved, they will need to arrive at a sufficient degree of sociological and political interoperability, not just shared
Since the entire world is modernizing, eventually this is

likely to mean it will encompass the entire world. Until then, the integrated grouping will
trading interests.
remain one of the ever-present two tiers of the international trading system, the other being WTO; akin to stalactites and stalagmites which
This is nothing new; the Atlantic was the core of GATT

from the start, providing impetus and stability to the global trading
system. The overhasty extension of GATT in recent decades to
insufficiently integrable countries is one of the reasons why the
inner grouping must now re-form itself as a concrete entity.
eventually meet and merge.
Specifically, TTIP would encompass 50% of the global GDP

and create enough jobs to boost economic growth
globally.
Workman 13 (Garrett, associate director at Atlantic Councils Global
Business and Economics Program, BA in Political Science from Univ. of
Arizona, 6/17, Deepening Transatlantic Trade: Historic Opportunity or a
Failure to Launch? Atlantic Council,
http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/deepening-transatlantic-trade-historicopportunity-or-failure-launch, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)

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A deepened and more integrated relationship between the worlds

two largest economiesthe European Union and United States
offers considerable potential benefits to consumers and companies
alike. By removing the remaining tariffs, clearing the way for
additional international investment, and streamlining regulatory
policy, goods would be cheaper and firms would be able to more
effectively mobilize and invest their capital across the US and
Europe. Additionally, many hundreds of thousands of jobs would be
created in export sectors and in the logistics companies needed to
effectively transport these traded materials. Importantly, a reinvigorated transatlantic
economy would vastly improve the international competitiveness of
both regions as together they could set combined standards for the
world to aspire to in environmental policy, product safety, pharmaceuticals, and any number of other
industries. Exporters hoping to sell goods in either market will have just one set of rules to comply with. A
combined transatlantic market representing 50 percent of global
GDP would be a powerful trend-setter indeed.
The BRICs power is growing and will surpass the EU-US

partnership by 2020TTIP is critical to keep the BRICs in
EU and US control.
Doody 13 (Justine, researcher at the Global Economic Dynamics project,
Shutting Out the BRICs? Why the EU Focuses on a Transatlantic Free Trade
Area, http://www.ged-project.de/viz/articles/shutting-out-the-brics-why-theeu-focuses-on-a-transatlantic-free-trade-area/, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)
In March 2013, the E uropean U nion and the U nited S tates of America launched negotiations on a
transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP). The free trade agreement between the two would be the largest trade deal in
history. It should provide the EU with a boost of 0.5% in GDP growth. At the same time, the US is pursuing a free trade agreement in the
Pacific. This Trans-Pacific Partnership would include the US, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru,
Singapore and Vietnam. From both these agreements,
one bloc is conspicuously missing. Where are the

where are the
countries that have been such an important part of the global economic narrative for more than ten years now
BRICs? The Bertelsmann Foundations Global Economic Dynamics Visualizer tool (GED Viz) offers a way of viewing trade flows year-onyear between different countries and blocs. Slides 1 and 2 show that the EUs trade relationship with the BRIC countries is increasing in
importance for Europe. The total value of exports from the EU to the powerhouse economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China rose from $80.6
billion in 2001 to $432.57 billion in 2011. [1] When the figures are viewed as a percentage of total EU trade, the growing weight of the
relationship becomes even more clear. EU exports to the BRIC countries formed 14% of total EU exports in 2001. In 2011, exports to the BRICs
even
as the value of EU exports to the US grows, the share of total EU
exports sent to the US declines. Slides 3 and 4 show that in 2001, EU exports to the US were worth $233.8
billion, and by 2011, exports totalled $374.6 billion. But the percentage of total EU exports sent
to the US dropped from 40.6% in 2001 to 25.8% in 2011 an average drop in share of 1.5% a year, precisely
made up 29.7% of all goods exported from the EU-27 an average increase in share of EU exports of 1.5% a year. Meanwhile,
matching the rise in importance of exports to the BRIC countries.

so, the EU is choosing to close ranks with the US , tightening its trade relationship and
Even
bolstering the already close integration between the trade regimes of the two sides. Part of the reason lies in the other side of the EUs trade
imports from the BRIC countries to the EU are

increasing even more quickly than exports. Having another look at slides 1 and 2, one can see
relationship with the BRIC countries:
that EU imports from the BRIC countries were worth $157.94 billion in 2001, and by 2011, they amounted to $812.44 billion. In 2001, imports
from the BRICs represented 25.1% of the EUs total imports; by 2011, the BRICs were responsible for 47.3% of the EU-27s imports, an average
growth in share of 2.2% a year. Throughout the period, the EUs trade deficit has held steady imports from the BRIC countries continue to
increase alongside exports. The EU has long had serious concerns about the trade deficit with China in particular, blaming Chinese currency
But the EU is running a trade deficit with the

rest of the BRIC countries too. Slide 5 shows that in 2011, EU exports to China totalled $209.97 billion, while
manipulation and trading practices for the gap.
imports from China were $445.2 billion. The EU-27 exported $46.32 billion worth of goods to Brazil and imported goods with a value of $55.36
billion. Exports to India were worth $53.23 billion and imports totalled $58.89 billion. And exports to Russia amounted to $123.05 billion, with
imports more than double that, at $252.99 billion. So, the EU is turning to its trade relationship with the US to increase its competitiveness. In
this relationship, trade flows are only part of the story:
investment between the EU and the US is

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far greater than either partys investment in the BRIC countries.[2] With
companies from either side active in both jurisdictions, strengthened links could promote investment and improve job growth both in the US
aligning regulations and norms would lessen costs for

companies on both sides of the Atlantic. Aside from the benefits of cooperation, the closer EUUS partnership is certainly also intended to shut out the BRIC
countries. According to the UNDP, Brazil, China and Indias combined output will
by 2020 be greater than the combined GDP of the US, the UK,
Canada, France, Germany and Italy. [3] The renminbis increasing internationalisation threatens the
power of the dollar and the euro, and south-south trade is growing. By 2030, 70% of the worlds
consumption expenditure will come from the global south. [4] This represents an
and in the EU. And
opportunity for the developed economies, in that new markets will be available to their industries. But with intra-BRIC trade on the rise,
companies from these emerging markets are often better prepared to sell at low cost to consumers with limited incomes. At the same time,
the increased economic weight of China in particular argues for its

greater inclusion in global economic decision-making. The TTIP
represents a way for the EU and the US to forestall this eventuality

for a little while longer. As the Doha round of WTO trade talks continues to struggle, a bilateral
agreement between the two huge economies would enable the EU
and the US to lay down rules much more easily than they could
within the WTO framework, in which the BRIC countries have the
power to block initiatives. On issues such as intellectual property and employment protection, the EU and the US
have much more in common with each other than they do with the emerging economies. By agreeing standards
together, they can establish norms that the BRIC countries may later
be forced to accept .
US and EU control over the BRIC economies through TTIP

means BRIC cant leverage pressure to reshape the
international order.
Beibei 13 (Huang, Peoples Daily Online, 6/21, Can TTIP reshape the
West? http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90777/8294139.html, Accessed

8/11/13, Keerthi)
In international markets, the EU is confronted by competition from both the US and
emerging countries. Its enthusiasm for TTIP shows that the EU is
choosing to dance with the wolves and maintain the established
order - a response to the US strategy of focusing on the Asia-Pacific axis. Politicians naturally
expect to gain political capital from TTIP, demonstrating that the EU
is not isolated, and that it expects to lead the world again. Barrosos political bet on TTIP
effectively represents his pitch for a term as President of the EU Commission. The EU's objective
is to increase two-way trade and investment between Europe and America and promote
employment and economic growth through market access, regulatory coordination, and common
standards. Of the three driving forces for economic growth - investment, consumption and exports - the
EU can rely only on exports. An all-out effort to promote free trade

through the prioritization of TTIP represents the EUs core strategy
to resolve its economic and strategic dilemma. This is exactly what the US wants
to see. Having bypassed China, the EU has reached agreements with South Korea and Singapore, and is
conducting negotiations with Japan, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia in Asia. In some ways this
TTIP negotiations
will focus on the key issues that include market access and
regulatory rules, non-tariff barriers, and market rules. Agreements
between the US and Europe on technical standards will have a
significant impact on the world economy, as they will in effect
mirrors the US strategy of returning to Asia. In addition to reducing tariffs,

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become new international standards. If agreement is reached, TTIP will

become the base of new international trade and investment rules,
thereby affecting the entire global regulatory process . Together with the
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), the impact on China will be a significant increase in the cost of
participation in globalized markets. Theoretically it is impossible for TPP to exclude China, but because of
The
result will be increased pressure on China, and China will once again
face remodeled western rivals. The challenge for Chinas strategic
wisdom will be whether it seeks to resolve the issue through focus
on the EU, on FTA, or on its economic relationships with the BRICS.
the narrow economic gap between the US and Europe, TTIP will be easier to achieve than TPP.
AND, our affirmative has precedence- the US can invite

other nations to trade agreements- the US invited Mexico
to the Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations and NAFTA.
Wasson 12 (Erik, The Hill writer, 6/18, Mexico invited to join US-backed
Pacific free trade agreement talks, http://thehill.com/blogs/on-themoney/1005-trade/233221-mexico-invited-to-join-us-backed-pacific-tradetalks, Accessed 8/11/13, Keerthi)

The U nited S tates formally announced Monday that Mexico has been invited to
join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade talks. "We are obviously two of our most
important trading partners to each other, but we both recognize that growth is going to take place in the Asia Pacific region," President Obama
The administration has been negotiating

the free-trade agreement the only major trade deal high on the U.S. agenda at the moment with Australia,
Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. Until this week, NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada had
been unable to meet conditions needed to join the talks. The U.S. had pressured
Mexico to resolve issues related to the beef and potato trade as well as to intellectual property protection. The U.S.
said at the meeting of the G-20 in Los Cabos, Mexico.
also wanted Mexico to agree on negotiating labor and environmental provisions which are not in NAFTA. The announcement now puts
pressure on Canada to make agricultural trade concessions in order not to be left out. So far, Canada has resisted putting its supply-managed
dairy and livestock sectors on the table.
TPP proves that the affirmative is germane and in the

literature.
Carter 12 (Zach, 6/19/12, Obama Invites Mexico To Join Trans-Pacific
Partnership Trade Talks, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/19/obamatrade-mexico-trans-pacific-partnership_n_1607318.html, Keerthi, Accessed
8/13/13)
WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama's administration on Monday formally invited
Mexico to join controversial free trade negotiations known as the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, reinforcing consumer and environmental group
concerns that the deal may establish broad new powers for corporations.
The invitation comes less than one week after a leaked U.S. document sparked an uproar because it
proposed terms that would grant corporations the ability to bypass U.S. public interest laws and
regulations in courts here and appeal directly to international tribunals. U.S. advocacy groups and some
The U.S. has granted corporations

similar powers under trade pacts extending back to the 1993 North
American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada . But the language
members of Congress have criticized the U.S. proposals.
in last week's leaked negotiation text broadened key definitions that would allow more companies to
challenge a wider spectrum of rules. The text also would make rules surrounding government contracting
-- a $1 trillion market in the U.S. -- eligible for corporate challenges before international tribunals.
Although Mexico does not have trade agreements with several of the countries involved in the Trans-Pacific
talks, it does have deals with Peru, Chile and the U.S., all of which are involved. NAFTA already allows for
trade without tariffs between the U.S. and Mexico, creating concern among public interest groups that the
Trans-Pacific deal will establish broader deregulation.

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Mexico will say yes- already have asked to join.

Moody 13 (Glyn, Tech Dirt, March 13, Mexico Will Ask To Join US-EU
Transatlantic Trade Agreement,

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130313/10181122311/mexico-will-ask-tojoin-us-eu-transatlantic-trade-agreement.shtml, Keerthi, Accessed 8/17/13)
Things are moving fast with the proposed US-EU transatlantic free trade agreement
(TAFTA). It was only a few weeks ago that the formal announcement
was made, and already another country wants to join, as pointed out by @PostActa (original in
Spanish): The Mexican government wants to be part of the negotiations
of the Transatlantic Association of Trade and Investment (TTIP, in its English acronym), which the
United States and European Union will be negotiating, with the idea
that there will be two blocks that make up the future pact. That is,
alongside the EU block of 27 countries, Mexico is suggesting there should be a similar regional grouping in
North America. Interestingly, the story says that the Mexican government will ask the US President for
permission to join, with no mention of asking the EU: "It is a sovereign decision of Washington as to the
approach and the negotiation strategy to be adopted", and although the U.S. government has already
referred to the idea, it is something that is not yet included in a formal dialogue, and needs to be defined.

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MEXICO EXCHANGES AFF

1AC

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Inherency
Contention 1 is Inherency:
US-Mexico student exchanges are devastatingly low- we are
losing competitive students to other nations.
Wood 13 (Duncan, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars, professor and the director of the International
Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mxico, Educational
cooperation and exchanges: An emerging issue,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Wood_Edu_US_Mex.pdf, Accessed
8/5/13, Keerthi)
The challenge facing Mexico-U.S. educational exchanges
Around the world university education is becoming more international in
nature. In the West, universities have come to see foreign students as an
important source of income, essentially subsidizing national students in
their studies. The United States has followed this trend, with international students
rising in number from 547,867 in 2000-01 to 764,495 in 2011-2012. These international students contributed $22.7
billion to the U.S. economy in 2012. 2 Compared
to other countries, however, it is clear that

the United States could do much more. In the United Kingdom, for example, according to the
Higher Education Statistics Agency, there were 420,000 international students studying in 2012. Since 2008,
international student enrollment has increased at an annual rate of 8% in the UK, compared with only 4% annual
growth in the United States. To have less than twice the number of foreign students in a country of 5 times the
population and a higher rate of young people going on to post-secondary education highlights the room for growth
that still remains in the U.S. international student market. The strengthening of student visa requirements after 9/11
was a key factor holding back growth in the number of all foreign students studying in the United States. Part of the
issue derived from the United States actually denying visas or denying entry to some students, but at a more general
When
examining the International student numbers for the United States in greater
detail, one observes that the figures for Mexican students are even more
level the U.S. began to be perceived as a slightly less welcoming place for international students.
disappointing , showing only marginal growth over the past decade and
actually falling since 2007/08. The low number of less than 14,000 Mexican
students enrolled in U.S. universities and colleges in 2012 is all the more stunning
when considering the fact that the two countries share a border, their
economies are ever more integrated, there is a huge population of
Mexican origin in the U.S. and that Spanish has become the countrys
unofficial second language . Mexico ranks ninth (9th) among countries that
send students to the United States for undergraduate education and tenth (10th) for
graduate education, far below Turkey, Iran, and other smaller and more distant
countries. The number of Mexicans studying in the United States today is surpassed by students from China,
India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Taiwan, Japan and Vietnam. The number of Chinese students going to the
United States rose by 23.1% between 2010 and 2011; the number of Saudi students by more than 50%; but the
More Mexican students go to Spain to

study than go to the United States, but what is more surprising is the fact that almost
as many Mexican students go to France to study as to the United States.
number of Mexicans by only 1.3% in the same period.

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Plan: The United States federal government should

substantially encourage and develop new student exchange
and joint degree programs with Mexico.

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STEM
The only advantage is STEM education this is a long
advantage Uniqueness- The United States is falling behind in STEM.
Kluger 2013 (Jeffrey, senior editor at TIMES, Sept. 20,
http://nation.time.com/2013/09/20/what-u-s-needs-to-be-the-leader-in-stem-again/,
Theres nothing like being successful in the past to make you feel like a
loser today. Take Americaparticularly Americas science, technology, engineering and
math (STEM) sector. The big wins of the 20th century were pretty much all ours:
First man on the moon? Check. Polio vaccine? Check. Hubble Space Telescope? Check.
Creation of the Internet? Check. Towering r esearch institutions like MIT, Caltech and Berkeley? Check,
check and check. But the U.S. is in no position to boast these days . Consider these
numbers from this mornings TIME Education Summit panel on Basic and Applied Research. Last years entire operating
budget for the National Science Foundation was $7.4 billionor only $400 million more than Americans spent on
potato chips in the same period. Last year too, 20% of undergrads in China were studying in the
STEM fields. In Europe it was 11%. In the U.S. it was 4.4%. In 2008, I was working on a
paper about a newly discovered superconducting material, said Robert Birgeneau, chancellor emeritus and professor of physics at the University of
California, Berkeley, Wen I looked at my citations I realized that 80% of the papers I mentioned were from universities in China.

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The plan solves STEM:

A. Current education systems in Mexico and the US are
insufficient student exchanges solve STEM by creating
collaboration and cultural ties.
*Education systems are sufficient on both sides for success after exchanges
Larsen 13 (Estefania Larsen,
department of teaching, learning and teacher education at the University of

Nebraska-Lincoln, Between World: Students Lived Experiences and Perspectives on Math. Science and Technology
Education Between Mexico and the United States, Digital Commons, 5/1/13,
http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1030&context=teachlearnstudent)
Within the context of improving education for

transnational students on both a local, national, and international level, the U nited S tates and
Mexico could employ a variety of policies. Since immigration between the
two countries is likely to remain well in to the future (Castaeda & Massey, 2012),
pathways for success for transnational students should be a primary
concern for educators. First of all, the idea that immigration is one-directional
and students who move to one country will likely stay in that country for the remainder of their lives should be
reconsidered. Transnational students are, by definition, cyclical migrants. They have
moved between countries, sometimes staying only a couple months or a few years at each location. Both the
U nited S tates and Mexico maintain education systems supportive primarily
Implications for Public Policy
for students who will stay for life, meaning they emphasize
acculturation and language-acquisition. For transnational students, this may mean
having to lose part of their other culture, only to return amidst it later in life. While it may be
difficult to assess whether a student is a settler or a sojourner (for more information, see Ziga & Hamann,
Both the United

States and Mexico have to take many strides to improve their education of
transnational and immigrant students within their borders, without the loss of social, cultural,
2009), this should not be an argument against a quality bilingual and multicultural education.
and academic well-being. 54 Implications for Global Education All across the world, students are consistently
Two major international

measures for STEM education include the PISA and the TIMMS. Countries,
including the United States and Mexico, use these measures to quantitatively and qualitatively
compare their educational systems. Both countries lag behind in science and
math education globally. The United States employs a breadth not depth
approach to curriculum, meaning students sometimes lack valuable critical
thinking skills or the motivation to study in STEM fields (Schmidt, et al., 2001; Bybee &
McCrae, 2011; Engler, 2012). In Mexico, the lack of resources, technology, and
equipment in some schools means that students miss out on valuable
scientific inquiry in a world where technology is rapidly becoming the norm (OECD, 2010; McLaughlin,
measured on their academic skills, both domestically and internationally.
2002). According to Sssmuth (2007), globalization will require a need for a variety of intercultural skills, including
cognitive, digital, emotional, and social skills. While the transnational students in this study are perfectly poised to
the education systems

of the United States and Mexico may actually be stifling these students. On an
be future leaders of interculturalism, due to their movement between cultures,
international policy level, the United States and Mexico should discuss how best to align their education systems so
transnational students moving between them would not lose topics, sequencing, course offerings, or skills. Since the
its important to foster a

mutual respect and offer all students chances to learn from either culture .
United States and Mexico do not share a common culture or language,
All students could benefit from building intercultural skills, and transnational and immigrant students could be the
Using the funds of knowledge that

transnational students bring to the classroom could be a step in building
mutual respect and better communication between Mexico and the United
inspiration 55 behind such an endeavor.

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States. Unfortunately, the amount of stigmatization and currently held beliefs from populations on both sides of
the border will be difficult to change. Regardless, global education reform based on student success and
achievement should be less motivated by who is doing what? and who is doing it better? and, instead, should
focus on how students are acquiring the skills necessary to thrive in an
The current research within

the context of global studies remains largely quantitative, using test
scores, immigration statistics, and various economic measures. This study was an
unclearfuture,prevalentwithinternationalcommunicationandcollaboration.
attempt to navigate away from the quantitative realm and bring the voices of the players, those truly affected by
globalization, into the arena. These transnational students are possibly the most affected by the global education
reform movement and their experiences show stark differences between two countries that share the tenth longest
border in the world (Central Intelligence Agency, 2009). This study shows that the experiences of transnational
students are just as valuable as a research tool for global studies, their voices having given us a glimpse into their
lives, struggles, and successes in education between two different countries. Are these students ready to face the
future? Possibly. Have their educations prepared them for a high quality life? Uncertain.
B. The plan capitalizes on human capital and potential.

*Now key- Mexico is poised to move from a middle income to high income country
8/5/13, Keerthi)
At a time when the Mexican and United States governments are looking for
an opportunity to diversify the bilateral agenda and strengthen the economic relationship,
there is an urgent need to focus on the long term challenges of
competitiveness and human capital in the region. Questions of infrastructure, standards,
border procedures and energy are all crucial to this equation, but an emerging issue that has been
little discussed in the public sphere is that of educational cooperation. Several
experts and government officials have long recognized this as a potential growth area in the bilateral relationship,
there are now greater opportunities than ever to further develop

educational collaboration. Mexico urgently needs to build its human capital
but
to move from a middle income to high income country. Indeed, the Pea Nieto government's first major legislative
effort has been a constitutional reform of the K-12 system to improve the quality of education. Ho wever,
a
second area that requires major attention is undergraduate and graduate
education, especially in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering
and mathematics) and innovation. At the same time, the United States needs to
develop the cultural and linguistic capacities that would allow Americans in
professions ranging from nursing to teaching to business to better communicate with the
growing Spanish-language population in the United States and to take
advantage of commercial and investment opportunities in the Western Hemisphere.
There exists, therefore, a powerful logic for the two governments to work
together to seek mutually beneficial solutions to their educational needs.
One excellent way of doing so would be to encourage higher levels of university-level exchanges between them.
C. Hispanic workers are key to filling in the void

Crotty 11(James Marshall Crotty, Contributor at Forbes News, Are Hispanics America's Next Great STEM
Innovators?, Forbes, 11/22/11, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmarshallcrotty/2011/11/22/are-hispanics-americasnext-great-stem-innovators/)
Unemployment in the U.S. is at its highest since the mid-80s, college graduates are struggling to find jobs in
their respective fields, and the so-called American Dream is slipping farther out of reach. Yet, there are 3.2 million
available jobs in this country in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) fields. Right now.
Today. This moment. Moreover, according to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 63% of those with only associates
degrees in STEM earn more than those with bachelors degrees in non-STEM occupations. In addition, 47% of those with bachelors degrees in STEM

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there is a much smaller salary gap

between men and women in STEM fields than in other occupations. Nevertheless, 3.2 million
STEM jobs go unfilled because there are not the qualified applicants to fill
occupations earn more than Ph.D.s in non-STEM occupations. Also,
them . With these facts as a backdrop, you would think that every kid in America would be scrambling to take a STEM major. Wrong. One study
showed that nearly half of high school students surveyed say they will most likely not pursue a STEM-related degree. Whom then can
we get to qualify for these high-paying, readily available, yet evidently not
very popular jobs? Answer: Hispanics. Over the last several decades, it has primarily been
Hispanic immigrants, legal and illegal, whove done Americas dirty work. Janitors, construction
labor, factory workers, meatpacking, housecleaning, cooks, chefs, you name it, Hispanics have done these jobs with drive and aplomb, and nary a
theres no denying that Hispanic immigrants

have taken jobs most Americans eschewed. As Americans seem to be
eschewing key white-collar STEM jobs too, now comes the next and most
important chapter of the Hispanic immigration experience in America : how to
complaint. No matter where you stand on illegal immigration,
move en masse from low-paying but steady work as Americas default blue collar labor force to the leaders of the STEM education revolution that must
the U.S. Hispanic population has now

surpassed 50 million, and is projected to more than double by 2050. Its the largest, youngest, fastest-growing
happen if this nation is to maintain its top-tier economic status. Consider this:
minority group in America. Now consider these numbers. Non-Hispanic growth rate in the past decade? 5%. Hispanic growth rate? 43%. Average Hispanic
age in 2009? 27.4 years. Nearly 10 years younger than the population overall. One in three Hispanics in the U.S. are under 18, most of them U.S.-born and
learning English in public schools. The stats go on, and all point to one question: how do we bridge the gap between this countrys young, fast-multiplying,
yet woefully undereducated Hispanic cohort and this nations ever-expanding demand for STEM-educated labor?
D. Provides adequate resources.

8/5/13, Keerthi)
The potential for expanding student exchange and international mobility
programs between the United States and Mexico is considerable. By encouraging more students
to spend time in the higher educational institutions of the other country, and by developing the funding programs needed to finance
such an effort, governments, educational authorities and businesses will be contributing to the
creation of a new generation of bilingual, bicultural young professionals
who will be prepared to work in either economy. Particularly in the area of
the sciences and engineering, Mexican students will benefit from high
quality programs and relatively abundant resources. This coincides with a
period in which more Hispanic students in the United States are choosing to
study these degrees. For U.S. students, the benefits of both stronger Spanish language skills on the one hand, and a
greater sensitivity to and understanding of Mexican professional culture on the other, would be considerable, both in the domestic
The creation of a high level, binational commission to fully

develop these ideas, and to seek ways of organizing and funding greater participation and higher quality student
mobility programs between the two countries, is a priority that both governments should
embrace at this time. It is an initiative that offers considerable tangible benefits to both economies and societies, and
and international spheres.
will greatly increase mutual understanding.
E. Integrates students with government agencies, universities

and research institutions.
DOS 13 (Department of State Office of the Spokesperson, May 2 2013, Facts: U.S.-Mexico Forum on Education,
Innovation, Research,
http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2013/05/20130502146702.html#axzz2fUsJx9OT, Keerthi,
Accessed 9/20/13)
Through the High-Level Forum on Higher Education, Innovation, and Research ,

the U.S. and Mexican governments will encourage broader access to quality

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post-secondary education for traditionally underserved demographic groups, especially in the

science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. They will also expand educational
exchanges, increase joint research on education and learning, and share best practices in higher education and
innovation. This forum will build upon the many positive educational and research
linkages that already exist through federal, state, and local governments,
public and private academic institutions, civil society, and the private
sector. It will bring together government agency counterparts to deepen
cooperation on higher education, innovation, and research. It will also draw on the expertise of the higher
education community in both countries.

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Scenario _ is Science Diplomacy:

STEM is key scientific student exchanges bridge the gap for
scientific dialogue.
Committee on Science, Space and Technology 09 (House of Reps
Committee, House Approves Bills to Coordinate International Science and

Technology Partnerships, STEM Education Programs in Federal Agencies,
http://archives.democrats.science.house.gov/press/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=2495,
Science diplomacy presents a unique and essential opportunity to develop
and sustain friendships and collaborations into the future, said bill author Energy and
Environment Subcommittee Chairman Brian Baird (D-WA), who managed the bills on the Floor. The scientists, their students, and of course the
science itself all benefit from this scholarly exchange. But so do our national security
and economic prosperity. The intellectual input of the foreign scientists helps build that foundation of discovery that leads to new
technologies and new intellectual property in the United States. And the exchange of scientists and their
students help to build mutual trust and understanding between people
who may otherwise be inclined to avoid or even fear each other. The STEM
Education Coordination Act will coordinate science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) education activities
done across the federal government, at agencies includ ing the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), the National Institute of Standards and Technology ( NIST) the Department of Defense (DOD), and the
Department of Education. The bill strengthens and elevates an existing committee under NSTC to manage the coordination.
Science, technology, engineering, and math education is a key component
of our national economic competitiveness, said bill author Committee on Science and Technology Chairman Bart Gordon (D-TN).
The foundation for an innovation economy is workforce that is prepared for the jobs of the 21st century, including a strong grounding in the STEM fields.
the federal government can play an

important role in STEM education at all levels because of the richness of the science and technology resources at our
research agencies, one key recommendation weve heard repeatedly was the need for
interagency coordination of federal STEM education activities, and improved dissemination of
these activities to practitioners.
The Committee has held many hearings on the issue, and, while
Specifically, improving science diplomacy with Latin America

spills over.
Albornoz et al. 10 (Mario Albornoz, Mariano Matos Macedo, Claudio Alfaraz,
United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, UNESCO SCIENCE
REPORT 2010, http://www.unesco.org/new/en/natural-sciences/sciencetechnology/prospective-studies/unesco-science-report/unesco-science-report-2010/)
If more countries are participating in science, we are also seeing a shift in
global influence. China is a hairs breadth away from counting more researchers than either the USA or the
European Union, for instance, and now publishes more scientific articles than Japan. Even countries with
a lesser scientific capacity are finding that they can acquire , adopt and sometimes
even transform existing technology and thereby leapfrog over certain costly investments, such as in infrastructure
Technological progress is allowing these countries to

produce more knowledge and participate more actively than before in international
networks and research partnerships with countries in both North and South. This trend is fostering a
democratization of science worldwide. In turn, science diplomacy is becoming
a key instrument of peace-building and sustainable development in international relations.
On a political level, there has also been greater government interest in
like land lines for telephones.

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promoting a science culture and citizen participation. Latin America has been no
stranger to the trend towards democratization of knowledge. Many surveys of the public
perception of science have been conducted in recent years, as a result of the creation of a network
within which academics and officials of national S&T organizations in Latin American countries have
been working together to build a consensus on methodology (Box 2).
Try-or-die extinction is inevitable without scientific exchange

and its key to solving all other impacts.
Sackett 10 (Penny, former Chief Scientist for Australia, former Program Director
at the NSF, PhD in theoretical physics, the Director of the Australian National
University (ANU) Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 8/10, Science
diplomacy: Collaboration for solutions, published in the Forum for AustralianEuropean Science and Technology cooperation magazine,
http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2010/08/science-diplomacy-collaboration-forsolutions/, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
Imagine for a moment that the globe is inhabited by a single individual who roams free across outback plains,
through rainforests, across pure white beaches living off the resources available. Picture the immensity of the
world surrounding this one person and ask yourself, what possible impact could this single person have on the
planet? Now turn your attention to todays reality. Almost 7 billion people inhabit the planet and this number
increases at an average of a little over one per cent per year. Thats about 2 more mouths to feed every second. Do
these 7 billion people have an impact on the planet? Yes. An irreversible impact? Probably. Taken together this huge
number of people has managed to change the face of the Earth and threaten the very systems that support them .
We are now embarked on a trajectory that, if unchecked, will certainly have

detrimental impacts on our way of life and to natural ecosystems. Some of these are
irreversible, including the extinction of many species. But returning to that single individual, surely two things are
A single person could not have caused all of this, nor can a single person
solve all the associated problems. The message here is that the human-induced
global problems that confront us cannot be solved by any one individual, group,
agency or nation. It will take a large collective effort to change the course that we are on;
nothing less will suffice. Our planet is facing several mammoth challenges: to its atmosphere, to its
resources, to its inhabitants. Wicked problems such as climate change, over-population,
disease, and food, water and energy security require concerted efforts and
worldwide collaboration to find and implement effective, ethical and sustainable solutions. These are
no longer solely scientific and technical matters. Solutions must be viable in the larger
context of the global economy, global unrest and global inequality. Common
true.
understandings and commitment to action are required between individuals, within communities and across
international networks. Science can play a special role in international relations. Its participants share a common
language that transcends mother tongue and borders. For centuries scientists have corresponded and collaborated
on international scales in order to arrive at a better and common understanding of the natural and human
world.
Values integral to science such as transparency, vigorous inquiry and

informed debate also support effective international relation practices .
Furthermore, given the long-established global trade of scientific information and results, many important
These links can lead to coalitionbuilding, trust and cooperation on sensitive scientific issues which, when
supported at a political level, can provide a soft politics route to other
policy dialogues. That is, if nations are already working together on global
science issues, they may be more likely to be open to collaboration on
other global issues such as trade and security. Many countries have recognised the value of
international links are already in place at a scientific level.
science diplomacy.

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Scenario _ is Competitiveness:
STEM jobs are key to US competitiveness- filling the job gap is
key.
NMS 2011(National Math and Science Initiative, mission to improve student
performance in STEM, Why m Education Matters, NMS, 2011,

http://www.nms.org/Portals/0/Docs/Why20Stem20Education20Matters.pdf)
Science, technology, engineering and math ( STEM) are where the jobs are. STEM job creation
over the next 10 years will outpace non-STEM jobs significantly, growing 17 percent, as
compared to 9.8 percent for non-stem positions.1 Jobs in computer systems design and related services a field dependent on
high-level math and problem-solving skills are projected to grow 45 percent between 2008 and 2018. The
occupations with the fastest growth in the coming years such as biomedical
engineers, network systems and data communications analysts, and
medical scientists all call for degrees in STEM fields.2 STEM workers can
expect higher salaries. College graduates overall make 84 percent more over a lifetime than those with only high school
analysis of 171 majors shows that STEM majors can earn higher
wages. For example, petroleum engineering majors make about $120,000 a year, compared with $29,000 annually for counseling psychology majors.
diplomas. But further
Math and computer science majors earn $98,000 in salary, while early childhood education majors get paid about $36,000.3 According to the Commerce
Department, people in STEM fields can expect to earn 26 percent more money on average and be less likely to experience job loss. The STEM degree
holders also tend to enjoy higher earnings overall, regardless of whether they work in STEM or non-STEM occupations. 4
And yet the
United States is failing to produce enough skilled STEM workers. Sixty

percent of the new jobs that will open in the 21st century will require skills
possessed by only 20 percent of the current workforce.5 The U.S. may be
short as many as three million high-skills workers by 2018. Two-thirds of those jobs will require at least some postsecondary education. American universities, however, only award about a third of the bachelors degrees in science and engineering as Asian universities.
Worldwide, the United States ranks 17th in the number of science degrees it awards. 6 The
United States is fast losing its competitive edge. The competitive edge of
the US economy has eroded sharply over the last decade, according to a new study by a non-partisan research
group. The report found that the U.S. ranked sixth among 40 countries and regions, based on 16 indicators of
innovation and competitiveness. They included venture capital investment, scientific research, spending on research, and educational achievement.7
The prestigious World Economic Forum ranks the U.S. as No. 48 in quality of math and science
education. 8 American students arent keeping up with students in other
countries in math and science. International results released in 2010 showed once again that U.S.
students rank well below many foreign competitors in the crucial areas of math and science. The
rankings from the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed American
students scored 17th in science achievement and 25th in math ability out of 65 countries. According to
the 2009 National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP), the Nations Report Card, only one percent of U.S. fourth grade and 12th grade students and
two percent of eighth grade students scored in the highest level of proficiency in science. In fact, the NAEP science results showed students performance
worsened the longer they were in school, with 72 percent of the fourth graders, 63 percent of the eight graders, and just 60 percent of the 12th graders
the
The decline in STEM knowledge
scoring at or above the basic level. In an analysis comparing the NAEP math scores of advanced 8th graders with their counterparts overseas,
only countries that the U.S. ranked ahead of were Portugal, Greece, Turkey and Mexico.9
capital is reducing the basic scientific research that leads to growth. The
U.S. is no longer the Colossus of Science, dominating the research
landscape in the production of scientific papers, that it was 30 years ago. In 1981, U.S. scientists fielded nearly 40 percent of research papers in
the most influential journals. By 2009, that figure had shrunk to 29 percent. During the same period, European nations
increased their share of research papers from 33 percent to 36 percent, while research contributed
by nations in the Asia-Pacific region increased from 13 percent to 31 percent. China is now the
second-largest producer of scientific papers, after the U.S. with nearly 11 percent of the worlds total.10 American

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STEM shortcomings mean crucial research and development that pushes

the frontiers of innovation is waning.
According to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization (UNESCO), almost 83 percent of research and development was carried out in developed countries in 2002, but dropped to 76 percent by
2007. China was leading the pack of emerging nations with 1.4 million researchers. By 2009, for the first time, over half of U.S. patents were awarded to
non-U.S. companies.11
Other nations are racing to establish dominance in math and
science. Russia is building an innovation city outside of Moscow. Saudi Arabia has a
new university for science and engineering with a $10 billion endowment. China is creating new
technology universities by the dozens and has replaced the U.S. as the worlds top high technology exporter.
Singapore has invested more than a billion dollars to make that country a medical science hub and
attract the worlds best talent. These nations and many others have rightly concluded that the way to win in the world economy is by doing a better job of
educating and innovating.12
The STEM gap is costing Americans jobs and money.
U.S. students
fall behind 31 countries in math proficiency, according to a 2011 Harvard study that concluded the U.S. could increase GDP growth per capita by enhancing
its students math skills. Over an 80-year period, economic gains from increasing the percentage of math proficient students to Canadian or Korean levels
would increase the annual U.S. growth rate by 0.9 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points, respectively. That increase could yield $75 trillion.13
US competitiveness stops great power warseconomic growth

is vital to prevent collapse.
Zalmay Khalilzad, 2011,Counselor at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, served as the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the
United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush, served as the director of
policy planning at the Defense Department during the Presidency of George H.W.
Bush, holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, The Economy and National
Security, National Review, February 8th, Available Online at
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024
Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to
the United States position as global leader. While the United States suffers from fiscal
imbalances and low economic growth, the economies of rival powers are
developing rapidly. The continuation of these two trends could lead to a shift
from American primacy toward a multi-polar global system, leading in turn to
increased geopolitical rivalry and even war among the great powers . The current
recession is the result of a deep financial crisis, not a mere fluctuation in the business cycle. Recovery is likely to be protracted. The crisis was preceded by
the buildup over two decades of enormous amounts of debt throughout the U.S. economy ultimately totaling almost 350 percent of GDP and the
development of credit-fueled asset bubbles, particularly in the housing sector. When the bubbles burst, huge amounts of wealth were destroyed, and
unemployment rose to over 10 percent. The decline of tax revenues and massive countercyclical spending put the U.S. government on an unsustainable
Without faster economic

growth and actions to reduce deficits, publicly held national debt is
projected to reach dangerous proportions. If interest rates were to rise
significantly, annual interest payments which already are larger than the defense budget would
crowd out other spending or require substantial tax increases that would
undercut economic growth. Even worse, if unanticipated events trigger what economists call
a sudden stop in credit markets for U.S. debt, the United States would be
unable to roll over its outstanding obligations, precipitating a sovereigndebt crisis that would almost certainly compel a radical retrenchment of the
United States internationally. Such scenarios would reshape the international
fiscal path. Publicly held national debt rose from 38 to over 60 percent of GDP in three years.
order . It was the economic devastation of Britain and France during World War II, as well as the rise of other powers, that led both countries to
relinquish their empires. In the late 1960s, British leaders concluded that they lacked the economic capacity to maintain a presence east of Suez. Soviet
economic weakness, which crystallized under Gorbachev, contributed to their decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan, abandon Communist regimes in
If the U.S. debt problem goes critical, the United

States would be compelled to retrench , reducing its military spending and
shedding international commitments. We face this domestic challenge while other major
powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. Even though countries such as
Eastern Europe, and allow the Soviet Union to fragment.

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China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies are
growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power .
These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world . If U.S.
policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a
question of whether but when a new international order will emerge . The
closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify
geopolitical competition among major powers , increase incentives for local
powers to play major powers against one another, and undercut our will to
preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of
escalation. The stakes are high . In modern history, the longest period of
peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership . By contrast,
multi-polar systems have been unstable , with their competitive dynamics
resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers .
Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars .
American retrenchment could have devastating consequences . Without an
American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to
balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there would be a
heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crises
spiraling into all-out conflict . Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their
hostile states would be emboldened to make
aggressive moves in their regions. As rival powers rise, Asia in particular is likely
to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. Beijings economic rise has enabled a dramatic military
geopolitical posture away from the United States. Either way,
buildup focused on acquisitions of naval, cruise, and ballistic missiles, long-range stealth aircraft, and anti-satellite capabilities. Chinas strategic
modernization is aimed, ultimately, at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have
grown, Chinas expansive territorial claims and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea have roiled its
relations with South Korea, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian states. Still, the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and
aggression.
Given the risks, the United States must focus on restoring its economic
and fiscal condition while checking and managing the rise of potential
adversarial regional powers such as China. While we face significant challenges, the U.S. economy still
accounts for over 20 percent of the worlds GDP. American institutions particularly those providing enforceable rule of law set it apart from all the rising
powers. Social cohesion underwrites political stability. U.S. demographic trends are healthier than those of any other developed country. A culture of
innovation, excellent institutions of higher education, and a vital sector of small and medium-sized enterprises propel the U.S. economy in ways difficult to
quantify. Historically, Americans have responded pragmatically, and sometimes through trial and error, to work our way through the kind of crisis that we
face today. The policy question is how to enhance economic growth and employment while cutting discretionary spending in the near term and curbing the
growth of entitlement spending in the out years. Republican members of Congress have outlined a plan. Several think tanks and commissions, including
President Obamas debt commission, have done so as well. Some consensus exists on measures to pare back the recent increases in domestic spending,
restrain future growth in defense spending, and reform the tax code (by reducing tax expenditures while lowering individual and corporate rates). These are
promising options. The key remaining question is whether the president and leaders of both parties on Capitol Hill have the will to act and the skill to
fashion bipartisan solutions. Whether we take the needed actions is a choice, however difficult it might be. It is clearly within our capacity to put our
economy on a better trajectory. In garnering political support for cutbacks, the president and members of Congress should point not only to the domestic
consequences of inaction but also to the geopolitical implications. As the United States gets its economic and fiscal house in order, it should take steps
to prevent a flare-up in Asia. The United States can do so by signaling that its domestic challenges will not impede its intentions to check Chinese
expansionism. This can be done in cost-efficient ways. While Chinas economic rise enables its military modernization and international assertiveness, it
also frightens rival powers. The Obama administration has wisely moved to strengthen relations with allies and potential partners in the region but more
can be done. Some Chinese policies encourage other parties to join with the United States, and the U.S. should not let these opportunities pass. Chinas
military assertiveness should enable security cooperation with countries on Chinas periphery particularly Japan, India, and Vietnam in ways that
complicate Beijings strategic calculus. Chinas mercantilist policies and currency manipulation which harm developing states both in East Asia and
elsewhere should be used to fashion a coalition in favor of a more balanced trade system. Since Beijings over-the-top reaction to the awarding of the
Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese democracy activist alienated European leaders, highlighting human-rights questions would not only draw supporters from
Since the end of the Cold War, a stable

economic and financial condition at home has enabled America to have an
expansive role in the world. Today we can no longer take this for granted.
Unless we get our economic house in order, there is a risk that domestic
stagnation in combination with the rise of rival powers will undermine our
ability to deal with growing international problems. Regional hegemons in
nearby countries but also embolden reformers within China.

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Asia could seize the moment, leading the world toward a new, dangerous
era of multi-polarity .

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Scenario _ is Cyber-Attacks:
STEM solves Chinese cyber attack
Lips and McNeill 9 (Dan Lips and Jena Baker McNeill, Senior Policy Analyst in the Domestic Policy
Studies Department and Policy Analyst for Homeland Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign
Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation, A New Approach to Improving Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math
Education, The Heritage Foundation, 4/15/9, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/04/a-new-approach-toimproving-science-technology-engineering-and-math-education)
Those who underestimate the impact of a STEM-educated work force on a

nation's security need only look at America's cyber security problem. Foreign
intelligence efforts increasingly rely on cyber tools to collect sensitive U.S. technology
and economic information.[11] One of the major culprits is China--a country that has
made cyber warfare one of its major espionage tools. China's People's Liberation Army
(PLA) organized its first cyber warfare unit in 2003. Its mission: to target
foreign computer network operations. In 2006, Chinese intelligence agencies covertly attacked
at least four separate U.S. government computer networks. In June 2007, 150 computers in the $1.75 billion
computer network at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security were quietly penetrated by programs that sent an
unknown quantity of information to a Chinese-language Web site. In the same month of June 2007, Chinese military
The skills necessary for

China to engage in this type of cyber warfare are a direct result of the
ingenuity of STEM-educated Chinese citizens. The new technologies and
techniques America needs to combat these types of attacks depend on
America's ability to produce citizens with superior STEM skills.
hackers circumvented one of the Defense Department's computer networks.
Chinese cyber attack WILL happen and leads to space warfare

quickly and covertly strong US military capabilities cant
solve.
*Cites Chinese documents and military files
*US military cant solve- China will disable GPS satellites
*China will attack soon- C4ISR and military aggression
Gertz 13 (Bill Gertz, senior editor at the Free Beacon, Chinas Military Preparing for Peoples War in
Cyberspace, Space Translated report reveals high-tech plans for cyber attacks, anti-satellite strikes, The Washington
Free Beacon, 7/30/13, http://freebeacon.com/china-military-preparing-for-peoples-war-in-cyberspace-space/)
The new details of Chinese plans for cyber

warfare were revealed
The report presents a rare inside look of
Cyber warfare plans against the U S
Cyber warfare
is not limited to military personnel
and space
in a report Study on
Space Cyber Warfare by four engineers working at a Chinese defense research center in Shanghai.
one of
Beijings most secret military programs:
nited
tates in a future conflict.
. All personnel with special knowledge and skills on information system may participate in the execution of cyber warfare.
Cyber warfare may truly be called a peoples warfare, the report says. Peoples War was first developed by Chinas Communist founder Mao Zedong as a Marxist-Leninist insurgency and guerrilla warfare concept. The article provides
evidence that Chinese military theorists are adapting Maos peasant uprising stratagem for a future conflict with the United States. A defense official said the report was recently circulated in military and intelligence circles. Its
publication came as a surprise to many in the Pentagon because in the past, U.S. translations of Chinese military documents on similar warfighting capabilities were not translated under a directive from policy officials seeking to
prevent disclosure of Chinese military writings the officials feared could upset U.S.-China relations. A Chinese government spokesman could not be reached for comment. However, Chinese spokesmen in the past have denied reports
The study links Chinas space warfare development programs

with its extensive cyber warfare capabilities.
Cyber warfare is an act of war that utilizes space
that China engages in cyber attacks.
Both programs are considered trump card weapons that would allow a weaker China to
defeat a militarily stronger United States in a conflict.
technology; it combines space technology and cyber technology and

maintains and seizes the control of cyberspace
, the study says. Because cyberspace relies on satellites,
space
will surely be the main battlefield of cyber warfare,

Satellites and
space vehicles are considered the outer nodes of cyber space and are
clear targets for attack and may be approached directly,
satellites have limited defenses
Chinas military
, is preparing
the report said.
the report said, adding that ground-based
cyberspace nodes are more concealed and thus more difficult to attack.
very vulnerable to attack.
The report reveals that
Additionally,
and anti-jamming capabilities, leaving them
, which controls the countrys rapidly growing space program
to conduct space-based cyber

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cyber reconnaissance
from space vehicles Space-based cyber
warfare will include
cyber attack cyber defense and cyber
support.
A space cyber-attack is carried out
using space tech and methods of hard kill and soft kill
Soft-kill methods are designed to
disrupt or damage cyberspace links
cyber
attacks include launching computer viruses, theft and tampering of data,
denial of service attacks, and detonation of [a] network bomb
warfare
, jamming, and attack
three categories: space
, space
The space cyber support involves reconnaissance, targeting, and intelligence gathering.
space
nology
, the report said. It ensures its own control at will while at
the same time uses cyberspace to disable, weaken, disrupt, and destroy the enemys cyber actions or cyber installations.
using jamming, network cyber attacks, and deceit in the electromagnetic domain.
The
that can instantaneously paralyze or
destroy enemys information network. Soft kill measures are well concealed, fast in action, and the attack can be accomplished before the enemy even has time to discover it, the report said. Soft kill measures are deceptive and
Hard-kill cyber attack weapons include missiles and other

kinetic weapons
well hidden; they are difficult to detect and monitor.
along with directed energy, including lasers, radio frequency weapons, and particle beam weapons.
Chinese cyber warfare capabilities are one of the Peoples Liberation
Armys (PLA) most closely guarded secrets, along with its anti-satellite missile and jamming program. The topic of military cyber warfare was recently discussed by U.S. and Chinese military and defense officials at a meeting earlier
this month of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Washington. The Washington Free Beacon obtained a copy of the recently translated report, dated December 2012 and published in the journal Aerospace Electronic
Warfare. The journal is a bimonthly publication of the Institute 8511, part of the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp. (CASIC), a state-run missile manufacturer and high-technology aerospace research center. Institute 8511
develops electronic warfare offense and defense weapons, countermeasure technologies, and command and control systems for aircraft and missiles. The institute in the past also developed Chinas DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile,
a unique weapon that uses precision guidance to attack U.S. aircraft carriers at sea. The defense official said Institute 8511 is located close to the PLAs premier cyber warfare headquarters in Shanghai, known as Unit 61398. That
unit was identified in a report last February by the security firm Mandiant as the main origin of widespread military cyber attacks on the West. According to the report, Chinas goal for cyber war calls for using high-technology
Since cyberspace is boundless and transcends land, sea,

air, and space, cyber warfare is not constrained by territorial land or
territorial sea, and there is no difference between the front and the rear of
the battlefield
war in
cyberspace is not constrained by nighttime, weather, or geography
weapons in cyberspace to achieve military objectives.
, the report said. The advantage of cyber warfare is its global nature; it has global alert, global resources, and global access.
Additionally,
and can be conducted
at any time, key factors that have limited conventional warfighting in the past. In line with Chinese military doctrine that calls for sudden attacks and the element of surprise, the report said
is ideal
cyberwarfare
for rapid attacks that are difficult for an enemy to identify. This suddenness can often leave cyber warfare without a trace and without damaging the physical installation or personnel, and yet it can change
the trend and outcome of war by affecting the operational effectiveness in an instance. A second recently translated military report by two PLA colonels calls for China to adopt a new military doctrine called trump card and data
colonels
strategic concept designed to attack and defeat
link-centric warfare that is based on the U.S. war fighting doctrine called network-centric warfare. The two
communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, what the military calls
C4ISR
call for a new

using
, Sr. Col. Du Wenlong and Sr. Col. Xie Zhaohui,
the
nited
tates
advanced command, control,
and the key to conducting combined arms warfare. The colonels call for new weapons and other military
Should the United States

militarys transformation model
become a success, it will
change the mode
of war
This will inevitably greatly strengthen arrogance
capabilities to penetrate and to strike as quickly as possible and ensure that our military will win the warfare under the informatized conditions.
of network-centric warfare
and means
undoubtedly and completely
fare, making warfare even more sudden and its outcome even quicker to come, generating unmatched asymmetrical advantages, the colonels said.
its
, enabling it to have its own way to an even bigger extent and to promote its
politics of hegemony. Publication of the new cyber warfare report provides a more recent example of the contradiction between internal Chinese military writings and public statements. A 1999 book produced for the Pentagons
Office of Net Assessment and edited by China specialist Michael Pillsbury first reveals the contradiction. The book, Chinese Views of Future Warfare, influenced many senior Pentagon and military leaders views of China by showing
that internal Chinese military writings discussed plans for war with the United States, considered Chinas main enemy. The writings contrasted sharply with frequent public statements by China that its arms buildup is purely defensive
and not directed at any country. Richard Fisher, a Chinese military affairs expert, said the Chinese report reveals Chinas merger of cyber warfare and space warfare efforts. Fisher said the Chinese military understands that U.S.
satellites are critical to relaying computer data traffic and are vulnerable to direct attack.
satellite weapons
China has already demonstrated two anti-
: ground based lasers in 2006 and then the SC-19 [anti-satellite] missile in 2007. A higher Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) capable ASAT called DN02 may have been tested recently,
Fisher said. China also is pressing for a space arms agreement at the same time it is building up its space forces, Fisher said. The bottom line today is that Chinas first priority is building the means to win wars in space while using
space diplomacy to disarm its potential enemies, he said. U.S. cyber warfare strategy was recently disclosed in a top-secret Presidential Policy Directive-20 that was made public by former National Security Agency contractor
Edward Snowden. The directive outlines the use of military cyber attacks that can offer unique and unconventional capabilities to advance U.S. national objectives around the world with little or no warning to the adversary or target
A third Chinese document

reveals that Chinese military
are preparing to destroy
and with potential effects ranging from subtle to severely damaging.
from 2005 that was translated recently by the U.S. government
planners
ystem
or disable up to eight
satellites. The satellites are critical for U.S. military precision
lobal
ositioning
guided missiles and bombs.
Eliminating two groups of GPS satellites can prevent GPS satellites from providing navigation service around the clock, the study stated. The effect of dropping these GPS satellites on the navigation accuracy of GPS satellites is quite
obvious, the study, Research on Voidness of GPS, said.
Space warfare leads to extinction outweighs nuclear war

Mitchell 1
Associate Professor of Communication and Director of Debate at the University of
Pittsburgh (Dr. Gordon, ISIS Briefing on Ballistic Missile Defence, Missile Defence:
Trans-Atlantic Diplomacy at a Crossroads, No. 6 July,
http://www.isisuk.demon.co.uk/0811/isis/uk/bmd/no6.html)
A buildup of space weapons might begin with noble intentions of 'peace through strength' deterrence, but this
rationale glosses over the tendency that '
the presence of space weaponswill result in

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the increased likelihood of their use'.33 This drift toward usage is strengthened by a strategic
fact elucidated by Frank Barnaby: when it comes to arming the heavens, 'anti-ballistic missiles and anti-satellite
warfare technologies go hand-in-hand'.34 The interlocking nature of offense and defense in military space
technology stems from the inherent 'dual capability' of spaceborne weapon components. As Marc Vidricaire,
Delegation of Canada to the UN Conference on Disarmament, explains: 'If you want to intercept something in space,
you could use the same capability to target something on land'. 35 To
the extent that ballistic

missile interceptors based in space can knock out enemy missiles in midflight, such interceptors can also be used as orbiting 'Death Stars', capable
of sending munitions hurtling through the Earth's atmosphere. The
dizzying speed of space warfare would introduce intense 'use or lose'
pressure into strategic calculations, with the spectre of split-second
attacks creating incentives to rig orbiting Death Stars with automated 'hair
trigger' devices. In theory, this automation would enhance survivability of vulnerable space weapon
platforms. However, by taking the decision to commit violence out of human hands and endowing computers with
authority to make war, military planners could sow insidious seeds of accidental conflict. Yale sociologist Charles
Perrow has analyzed 'complexly interactive, tightly coupled' industrial systems such as space weapons, which have
many sophisticated components that all depend on each other's flawless performance. According to Perrow, this
interlocking complexity makes it impossible to foresee all the different ways such systems could fail. As Perrow
explains, '[t]he odd term "normal accident" is meant to signal that, given the system characteristics, multiple and
Deployment of space weapons with predelegated authority to fire death rays or unleash killer projectiles would
likely make war itself inevitable, given the susceptibility of such systems to
'normal accidents'. It is chilling to contemplate the possible effects of a
space war. According to retired Lt. Col. Robert M. Bowman, 'even a tiny projectile reentering
from space strikes the earth with such high velocity that it can do
enormous damage even more than would be done by a nuclear weapon
of the same size!'. 37 In the same Star Wars technology touted as a quintessential tool of peace, defence
unexpected interactions of failures are inevitable'.36
analyst David Langford sees one of the most destabilizing offensive weapons ever conceived: 'One imagines dead
any
nation subjected to space weapon attack would retaliate with maximum
force, including use of nuclear, biological, and/or chemical weapons. An
accidental war sparked by a computer glitch in space could plunge the
world into the most destructive military conflict ever seen .
cities of microwave-grilled people'.38 Given this unique potential for destruction, it is not hard to imagine that
Cyber warfare ensures nuclear war retaliation and accidental

launches.
Fritz 9 (Jason - former Captain of the U.S. Army, researcher for International
Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, MA in IR at Bond
University, July, Hacking Nuclear Command and Control
http://icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf, Accessed 9/21/13)
This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism in regard to nuclear weapons. Specifically, this research will use open source knowledge to identify the
structure of nuclear command and control centres, how those structures might be compromised through computer network operations, and how doing so would fit within established
If access to command and control centres is

obtained, terrorists could fake or actually cause one nucleararmed state to attack another, thus provoking a nuclear response
from another nuclear power. This may be an easier alternative for
terrorist groups than building or acquiring a nuclear weapon or
dirty bomb themselves. This would also act as a force equaliser, and
cyber terrorists capabilities, strategies, and tactics.
Continuing difficulties
in developing computer tracking technologies which could trace the
identity of intruders, and difficulties in establishing an internationally agreed upon legal framework to guide responses to computer network
operations, point towards an inherent weakness in using computer networks to
manage nuclear weaponry. This is particularly relevant to reducing the
provide terrorists with the asymmetric benefits of high speed, removal of geographical distance, and a relatively low cost.

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hair trigger posture of existing nuclear arsenals .
702
Keerthi Gondi
All computers which are connected to the internet are
Computers which operate on a closed network

may also be compromised by various hacker methods, such as
privilege escalation, roaming notebooks, wireless access points,
embedded exploits in software and hardware, and maintenance
entry points. For example, e-mail spoofing targeted at individuals who have access to a closed network, could lead to the installation of a virus on an open
susceptible to infiltration and remote control.
network. This virus could then be carelessly transported on removable data storage between the open and closed network. Information found on the internet may also reveal how to
Efforts by militaries to place increasing reliance on

computer networks, including experimental technology such as
autonomous systems, and their desire to have multiple launch
options, such as nuclear triad capability, enables multiple entry
points for terrorists. For example, if a terrestrial command centre is impenetrable, perhaps isolating one nuclear armed submarine would prove an
easier task. There is evidence to suggest multiple attempts have been
made by hackers to compromise the extremely low radio frequency
once used by the US Navy to send nuclear launch approval to
submerged submarines. Additionally, the alleged Soviet system known as Perimetr was designed to automatically launch nuclear weapons if
access these closed networks directly.
it was unable to establish communications with Soviet leadership. This was intended as a retaliatory response in the event that nuclear weapons had decapitated Soviet leadership;
however it did not account for the possibility of cyber terrorists blocking communications through computer network operations in an attempt to engage the system. Should a
By using proxies, multilayered attacks could be engineered. Terrorists could remotely

commandeer computers in China and use them to launch a US
nuclear attack against Russia. Thus Russia would believe it was
under attack from the US and the US would believe China was
responsible. Further, emergency response communications could be
disrupted, transportation could be shut down, and disinformation,
such as misdirection, could be planted, thereby hindering the
disaster relief effort and maximizing destruction. Disruptions in communication and the use of
warhead be launched, damage could be further enhanced through additional computer network operations.
disinformation could also be used to provoke uninformed responses. For example, a nuclear strike between India and Pakistan could be coordinated with Distributed Denial of Service
. Terrorists could also knock out communications

between these states so they cannot discuss the situation. Alternatively, amidst the confusion of a
traditional large-scale terrorist attack, claims of responsibility and
declarations of war could be falsified in an attempt to instigate a
hasty military response. These false claims could be posted directly on Presidential, military, and government websites. E-mails could also
be sent to the media and foreign governments using the IP addresses and e-mail accounts of government officials . A sophisticated and all
encompassing combination of traditional terrorism and cyber
terrorism could be enough to launch nuclear weapons on its own,
without the need for compromising command and control centres
directly.
attacks against key networks, so they would have further difficulty in identifying what happened and be forced to respond quickly

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Scenario _ is Tech Leadership:

US failure in STEM fields is collapsing tech leadership- causes
extinction.
Hummell et al 2k12 (Robert Hummel, PhD,*, Policy Research Division, Potomac
Institute for Policy Studies,, Patrick Cheetham1, Justin Rossi1, Synesis: A Journal of
Science, Technology, Ethics, and Policy 2012 US Science and Technology
Leadership, and Technology Grand Challenges, pg online @
http://www.synesisjournal.com/vol3_g/Hummel_2012_G14-39.pdf)
there is no direct evidence that the US has been overtaken in
quality of S&T output,
science and technology
However, the trends are not favorable to maintenance of this
position, and it seems likely that
US leadership could falter
a gradual decline in US S&T
Taken together,
and most indications support the notion that the US leads the world in
in all
fields.
in some fields,
might
occur,
or
in
what
fields,
and
whether
it
is
inevitable,
is
uncertain.
DoD
policy
implications
. When such cross-over
While
leadership
poses
an existential threat When
technical innovations occur in potentially adversarial countries or
domains, a strategy that relies on technological superiority for defense
capabilities will no longer suffice If a potential adversary can introduce
a disruptive technological capability, they can then use deterrence or
influence to control behaviors, compete economically, secure scarce
resources, and control diplomatic agendas The US strategy continues to
depend on technological superiority
it is imperative that the
US maintain its position of technological leadership
does
not
provide
Sputnik
moment
(65),ix
it
no
less
of
. Thus from a DoD perspective,
. A Senate Armed Services Committee (subcommittee on
Emerging Threats and Capabilities) hearing on the Health and Status of the Defense Industrial Base and its S&T-related elements (66)xi took place in May 2011, and highlighted some of the issues and potential solution
paths. Those testifying called for a comprehensive strategy for the US to maintain technological leadership well into the 21st century. Many other specific suggestions were made during that hearing as to ways to support the
industrial base and to assist the partnership of DoD and the defense industrial base to utilize technology advances efficiently. Future prospects Many remedies have been proposed to ensure continued US technology
leadership, in the face of challenges and stresses within the US S&T enterprise. Some of the typical concerns are overall funding levels, DoD funding for S&T, the efficiency of the application of funds to S&T, and the
emphasis
of
disciplines
within
S&T.
Other
concerns include regulations and impediments to
research in S&T, and the production rate of scientists and the career
opportunities.
Since research is an intermediate product
there
is often little appreciation of the role of the researcher and inventor.
We have noted many of these issues in our survey of elements of the S&T enterprise. The larger concern is over the respect in which science and technology is held within our
society.
, often accomplished years before product and societal benefits,
After
World War II, there was great respect afforded scientists, particularly physicists. Post-Sputnik, there was a deliberate effort to elevate the stature of science and technology, and the manned space program certainly
contributed to societal respect. Some argue that it is because there has been a precipitous off-shoring of manufacturing that the generation of new ideas has moved overseas (67). Andy Grove of Intel makes a
complementary argument: That as manufacturing moves overseas, American companies lose the knowledge of how to scale up new ideas to full-scale production (68). Both arguments suggest there are reduced incentives
for domestic research as manufacturing moves elsewhere, and lead to the conclusion that research is best performed by those with familiarity of product production. Thus, they argue that we need to reinvigorate
manufacturing and production for economic vitality so that technology development and leadership will follow. And, indeed, the nation has an Advanced Manufacturing Initiative, and many cite a resurgence of domestic
The US has the best universities, the most

winners of the Nobel Prize, the best young scientists, and the largest
investment in research and development of any nation on earth
can it
be that the US is apparently losing its lead in science and technology?
The answer isnt that the US has slowed down
the competition has discovered the importance of innovation, and
has begun to reap rewards from speeding up. We have seen that China
especially is mustering its considerable resources to develop what they
call an innovation economy, but that other nations, a
highly
value science and engineering, and implicitly or tacitly have begun to
challenge US technology leadership
the globalization of research
manufacturing as incentives normalize to less favor off-shoring. Summing up the landscape
. So how
, although according to some the rate of technical progress has, indeed, slowed.
The fact is that
well as Europe,
. At the same time,
and ease with which international science collaborations take place

mean that continued US leadership requires full engagement with the
international scientific community
. Thus, impediments to exchange of information and bureaucracy in the conduct of US research are counter-
productive. According to Bill Gates, you always have to renew your lead.xii The US has the resources and infrastructure necessary to maintain and renew a lead in technology. But momentum is not sufficient. In light of

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coasting in science and technology will jeopardize national

security, and also jeopardize the economic and societal benefits of
being first to market with technological innovations.
concerted efforts in other nations,
No single agency or entity within the United States can
enact a strategy to renew the technology lead. Instead, continued US technical leadership will require a dedicated and coordinated effort throughout the society.
And, locking in tech leadership reduces all conflict

Goldstein 2k7 (Avery Goldstein, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations at
the University of Pennsylvania, Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics,
Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, holds a Ph.D. from the University of California-Berkeley, 2007
(Power transitions, institutions, and China's rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence, Journal of
Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Number 4-5, August-October, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via Taylor &
Francis Online, p. 647-648)
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for international politics of a
shift in power between a dominant state and a rising power. In War and Change in World Politics, Robert Gilpin suggested that
peace prevails when a dominant states capabilities enable it to

govern an international order that it has shaped. Over time, however, as economic and technological
diffusion proceeds during eras of peace and development, other states are empowered. Moreover, the burdens of international
governance drain and distract the reigning hegemon, and challengers eventually emerge who seek to rewrite the rules of
governance.
As the power advantage of the erstwhile hegemon ebbs, it may become

desperate enough to resort to the ultima ratio of international politics, force, to forestall
the increasingly urgent demands of a rising challenger. Or as the power
of the challenger rises, it may be tempted to press its case with threats
to use force. It is the rise and fall of the great powers that creates the
circumstances under which major wars, what Gilpin labels hegemonic wars, break out .13
Gilpins argument logically encourages pessimism about the implications of a rising China. It leads to the expectation that
international trade, investment, and technology transfer will result in a

steady diffusion of American economic power, benefiting the rapidly developing states of the
world, including China. As the US simultaneously scurries to put out the many
brushfires that threaten its far-flung global interests (i.e., the classic problem of overextension), it will be unable to
devote sufficient resources to maintain or restore its former advantage over emerging competitors like China. While the erosion
of the once clear American advantage plays itself out, the US will find it ever more difficult to preserve the order in Asia that it
The expectation is an increase in the likelihood

for the use of force either by a Chinese challenger able to field a stronger military in support of its
demands for greater influence over international arrangements in Asia, or by a besieged American
hegemon desperate to head off further decline . Among the trends that alarm [end page
created during its era of preponderance.
647] those who would look at Asia through the lens of Gilpins theory are Chinas expanding share of world trade and wealth
(much of it resulting from the gains made possible by the international economic order a dominant US established); its
acquisition of technology in key sectors that have both civilian and military applications (e.g., information, communications,
and electronics linked with the revolution in military affairs); and an expanding military burden for the US (as it copes with the
challenges of its global war on terrorism and especially its struggle in Iraq) that limits the resources it can devote to preserving
its interests in East Asia.14 Although similar to Gilpins work insofar as it emphasizes the importance of shifts in the capabilities
of a dominant state and a rising challenger, the power-transition theory A. F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler present in The War
Ledger focuses more closely on the allegedly dangerous phenomenon of crossover the point at which a dissatisfied
when the power gap

narrows, the dominant state becomes increasingly desperate to forestall, and the challenger becomes
increasingly determined to realize the transition to a new international
order whose contours it will define.
challenger is about to overtake the established leading state.15 In such cases,

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Scenario _ is Nanotech:
Nanotech is inevitable within the decade
Treder and Phoenix 7 Mike Treder, *Executive Director of CRN, BS Biology, University of Washington,
Research Fellow with the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, a consultant to the Millennium Project of the
American Council for the United Nations University and to the Future Technologies Advisory Group, serves on the
Nanotech Briefs Editorial Advisory Board, is a member of the New York Academy of Sciences and a member of the
World Future Society, and Chris Phoenix, CRNs Director of Research, has studied nanotechnology for more than 15
years. BS, Symbolic Systems, MS, Computer Science, Stanford University. CRN's positions are the result of
deliberations between its principals, Mike Treder and Chris Phoenix, informed by our mutual lifelong interest in
emerging technologies and studies of societal dynamics, and sharpened through consultation with experts in many
fields and continued research into both the technical and policy aspects of advanced nanotechnology, Center For
Responsible Nanotechnology, Results of Our Ongoing Research, Last Updated 12/28/07,
http://www.crnano.org/overview.htm
Molecular manufacturing is the use of programmable chemistry to build

exponential manufacturing systems and high-performance products. There are
several ways this can be achieved, each with its own benefits and drawbacks. This technology is coming soon almost certainly within 20
years, and perhaps in less than a decade. When it arrives, it will come quickly . Molecular
manufacturing can be built into a self-contained, tabletop factory that makes cheap products efficiently at molecular scale. The time from the first assembler to a flood of
powerful and complex products may be less than a year . The potential benefits of such a technology are immense. Unfortunately, the risks are also
immense. Products will be more powerful and developed faster . (MORE) Even a
primitive diamond-building nanofactory can create products vastly more
powerful than today's versions. Electrical power can be converted to motion, and vice-versa, with
one-tenth the power loss and about 108 (100,000,000) times more compactly. Computers can be a billion times smaller and use a million times less power.
Materials can be about 100 times stronger than steel. This means that most human-scale products would consist almost entirely of empty space, reducing material requirements and cost.
Most of the rest of the product would be structural, easy to design. Even
the simplest products could be software-controlled at no extra hardware
cost. Manufacturing of prototypes would be quite rapida few minutes to a few hours. Because manufacturing and prototyping are the same process, a successful
prototype design could immediately be distributed for widespread use. A
designer working with a few basic predesigned blocks could design, build, and test a simple product in less than a day. Products with complex interfaces to humans or to their surroundings
information appliances, automobiles, aerospace hardware, medical deviceswould be limited by the time required to develop their software and test their functionality. However, in
An explosion of new,
useful products could rapidly follow the widespread availability of a nanofactory. Advanced nanotech can be very beneficial . (MORE) Manufacturing with nanotechnology can solve many of the world's
some fields the high time and money cost of manufacture slows other parts of the development cycle; this effect would disappear.
current problems. Water shortage is a serious and growing problem. Most water is used for industry and agriculture; both of these requirements would be greatly reduced by products
made by molecular manufacturing. Infectious disease is a continuing scourge in many parts of the world. Simple products like pipes, filters, and mosquito nets can greatly reduce this
problem. Information and communication are valuable, but lacking in many places. Computers and display devices would become stunningly cheap. Electrical power is still not available in
many areas. The efficient, cheap building of light, strong structures, electrical equipment, and power storage devices would allow the use of solar thermal power as a primary and
abundant energy source. Environmental degradation is a serious problem worldwide. High-tech products can allow people to live with much less environmental impact. Many areas of the
world cannot rapidly bootstrap a 20th century manufacturing infrastructure. Molecular manufacturing can be self-contained and clean; a single packing crate or suitcase could contain all
equipment required for a village-scale industrial revolution. Finally, MNT will provide cheap and advanced equipment for medical research and health care, making improved medicine
widely available. Much social unrest can be traced directly to material poverty, ill health, and ignorance. MNT can contribute to great reductions in all of these problems, and in the
associated human suffering. Advanced nanotech could be very dangerous. (MORE) Molecular nanotechnology will be a significant breakthrough, comparable perhaps to the Industrial
Revolutionbut compressed into a few years. This has the potential to disrupt many aspects of society and politics. The power of the technology may cause two competing nations to
enter a disruptive and unstable arms race. Weapons and surveillance devices could be made small, cheap, powerful, and very numerous. Cheap manufacturing and duplication of designs
could lead to economic upheaval. Overuse of inexpensive products could cause widespread environmental damage. Attempts to control these and other risks may lead to abusive
restrictions, or create demand for a black market that would be very risky and almost impossible to stop; small nanofactories will be very easy to smuggle, and fully dangerous. There are
numerous severe risksincluding several different kinds of riskthat cannot all be prevented with the same approach. Simple, one-track solutions cannot work. The right answer is
unlikely to evolve without careful planning. Simplistic regulation won't work. (MORE) Molecular nanotechnology manufacturing creates several severe risks, and each risk tempts a simple
and extreme solution. However, a patchwork of extreme solutions will be both destructive and ineffective. For example, Bill Joy and others have proposed halting nanotechnology research
entirely. This would not actually work; instead, it would relocate the research to less responsible venues. The risks might be delayed by a few years, but would be far worse when they
appeared because the technology would be even less controllable. To take another example, economic upheaval might be prevented by strict commercial licensing of all uses of the
technology. This has two problems. First, digital protection schemes for commercial products have often proved quite easy to crack. Second, if the technology is so restricted that it cannot
disrupt existing economic systems, continuing poverty will kill millions of people each year, fueling backlash, social unrest, espionage, and independent development. Each risk must be
reduced by some means that does not exacerbate others. This will not be easy, and will require creative and sensitive solutions. There are several approaches that may help. (MORE)
Once molecular manufacturing is developed, it will have to be administered. There are several approaches that might help. CRN is not advocating any of these approaches at this point; we
don't know enough about how the technology will be developed or in what context. We also have to point out that we don't think any one approach will be enough. Any effective program
will require a balance of several different kinds of administration. Some possibilities include built-in technical restrictions in personal nanofactories; intellectual property reform; and
international cooperation or monitoring of various kinds. Despite the difficulties and complexities, we believe that a solution can be found to preserve most of the potential benefits while
avoiding the most severe risks.
STEM is key to Nanotech leadership multiple warrants

Murday Et al 8 Dr. James S. Murday Office of Research Advancement University of Southern California
Dr. Mihail Roco Senior Advisor for Nanotechnology National Science Foundation Dr. Mary Poats Engineering
Education and Human Resource Development Division of Engineering Education and Centers National Science
Foundation 26-28 April 2008 Partnership for Nanotechnology Education
http://www.nsf.gov/crssprgm/nano/reports/educ09_murdyworkshop.pdf

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The current interest, planning, and activity toward reinvigorating Science, Technology, Engineering,
and Mathematics (STEM) education provides programmatic opportunities for innovation.
With the disruptive discoveries already realized through nanoscale science
and engineering research, it is essential to examine what impact the nanoscale might
impose on approaches to revamp STEM education: Nanostructures can have new
physical, chemical, and biological properties . This new knowledge should be incorporated into the
educational corpus.
Nanoscale science and engineering is largely
transdisciplinary . It challenges the traditional science and engineering

education taxonomies. The nanoscale holds sufficient novelty to attract STEM interest in students. As
nanostructures become materials building blocks and directed selfassembly becomes a viable manufacturing process, there will be a need for
an informed, skilled workforce . Workers and members of the general
public may be in contact with nanomaterials in various forms during
manufacture or in products and should be sufficiently knowledgeable to
understand the benefits and risks. The National Science Foundation (NSF) and other institutions attention to education at the
nanoscale (NanoEducation) is developing and disseminating a wealth of new instructional materials, some of which are available as
cyberinfrastructure resources.
Nanotech is inevitable --- U.S. leadership is key to stable

development --- checks gray goo, super-weapons, and ecocollapse.
Dennis 6 (Lindsay V., JD Candidate Temple University School of Law,
Nanotechnology: Unique Science Requires Unique Solutions, Temple Journal of
Science, Technology & Environmental Law, Spring, 25 Temp. J. Sci. Tech. & Envtl. L.
87, Lexis)
Nanotechnology, a newly developing field merging science and technology, promises a future of open-ended
potential. 6 Its scientific limits are unknown, and its myriad uses cross the boundaries of the technical, mechanical and medical fields. 7 Substantial research 8 has led
scientists,
9 politicians 10 and academicians 11 to believe that nanotechnology has the potential to profoundly change the economy and to improve the national standard of living.
12 In addition, nanotechnology
may touch every facet of human life because its products cross the
13 In the future,
nanotechnology could ensure longer, healthier lives with the reduction or elimination of lifethreatening diseases, 14 a cleaner planet with pollution remediation and emission-free energy, 15 and the innumerable benefits of increased information
technology. 16 However, certain uses, such as advanced drug delivery systems, 17 have given rise to an ethical debate similar to that surrounding cloning and stem cell
research. 18 Moreover, some analysts have theorized that nanotechnology may endanger humankind with
more dangerous warfare and weapons of terrorism, 19 and that nanotechnology may lead to
artificial intelligence beyond human control. 20 The widespread use of nanotechnology far in the future threatens to
alter the societal framework and create what has been called "gray goo ." 21 Because
nanotechnology has the potential to improve the products that most of us rely on in our daily lives, but
also imperil society as we know it, we should research, monitor and regulate
nanotechnology for the public good with trustworthy systems, and set up pervasive controls over its
research, development, and deployment. In addition, its substantial impacts on existing regulations should be ascertained, and
boundaries of the most important industries, including electronics, biomedical and pharmaceutical [*89] industries, and energy production.
solutions incorporated into the regulatory framework. This paper addresses these concerns and provides potential solutions. Part I outlines the development of nanotechnology. Parts II and
III explore the current and theoretical future applications of nanotechnology, and its potential side-effects. Then, Part IV analyzes the government's current role in monitoring
nanotechnology, and the regulatory mechanisms available to manage or eliminate the negative implications of nanotechnology. Part V considers the creation of an Emerging Technologies
Department as a possible solution to maximize the benefits and minimize the detrimental effects of nanotechnology. Lastly, Part VI examines certain environmental regulations to provide
an example of nanotechnology's impact on existing regulatory schema. [*90] Part I: Nanotechnology Defined Nanoscience is the study of the fundamental principles of molecules and
22 Called nanostructures,
23 Nanofabrication, or nanoscale manufacturing, is the process by which nanostructures are built. 24 Top-down nanofabrication
creates nanostructures by taking a large structure and making it smaller, whereas bottom-up nanofabrication starts with individual atoms to build nanostructures. 25 Nanotechnology
applies nanostructures into useful nanoscale devices. 26 The nanoscale is distinctive because it is the size scale where the properties of materials like conductivity, 27 hardness, 28 or
melting point 29 are no longer similar to the properties of these same materials at the macro level. 30 Atom interactions, averaged out of existence in bulk material, give rise to unique
properties. 31 In [*91] nanotech research, scientists take advantage of these unique properties to develop products with applications that would not otherwise be available. 32 Although
some products using nanotechnology are currently on the market, 33 nanotechnology is primarily in the research and development stage. 34 Because nanoparticles are remarkably
small, tools specific to nanotechnology have been created to develop useful nanostructures and devices. 35 Two techniques exclusive to nanotechnology are self-assembly, and
structures with at least one dimension roughly between 1 and 100 nanometers (one-billionth of a meter, or 10[su'-9']), otherwise known as the "nanoscale."
these are the smallest solid things possible to make.

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36 [*92] In self-assembly, particular atoms or molecules are put on a surface or preconstructed nanostructure, causing the molecules to
37 Although self-assembly is "probably the most important of the nanoscale fabrication techniques because of its generality, its ability to
produce structures at different length-scales, and its low cost," 38 most nanostructures are built starting with larger molecules as components. 39 Nanotubes 40 and nanorods, 41
the first true nanomaterials engineered at the molecular level, are two examples of these building blocks. 42 They exhibit astounding physical and electrical properties. 43 Certain
nanotubes have tensile strength in excess of 60 times high-grade steel while remaining light and flexible. 44 Currently, nanotubes are used in tennis rackets and golf clubs to make them
lighter and stronger. 45 Part II: Nanotechnology's Uses Researching and manipulating the properties of nanostructures are important for a number of reasons, including, most basically, to
gain an understanding of how matter is constructed, and more practically, to use these unique properties to develop unique products. 46 Nanoproducts can be divided into four general
categories: 47 smart materials, 48 sensors, 49 biomedical applications, 50 and optics and electronics. 51 [*93] A "smart" material incorporates in its design a capability to perform
several specific tasks. 52 In nanotechnology, that design is done at the molecular level. 53 Clothing, enhanced with nanotechnology, is a useful application of a smart material at the
nanoscale. Certain nano-enhanced clothing contains fibers that have tiny whiskers that repel liquids, reduce static and resist stains without affecting feel. 54 Nano-enhanced rubber
represents another application of a nanoscale smart material. 55 Tires using nanotech-components increase skid resistance by reducing friction, which reduces abrasion and makes the
tires last longer. 56 The tires may be on the market "in the next few years" according to the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI). 57 Theoretically, this rubber could be used on a
variety of products, ranging from tires to windshield wiper blades to athletic shoes. 58 A more complex nanotechnology smart material is a photorefractive polymer. 59 Acting as a
nanoscale "barcode," these polymers could be used as information storage devices with a storage density exceeding the best available magnetic storage structures. 60 Nano-sensors
may "revolutionize much of the medical care and the food packaging industries," 61 as well as the environmental field because of their ability to detect toxins and pollutants at fewer
than ten molecules. 62 As the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recognizes: Protection of human health and ecosystems requires rapid, precise sensors capable of detecting
nanofabrication using nanotubes and nanorods.
align themselves into particular positions.
pollutants at the molecular level. Major improvements in process control, compliance monitoring, and environmental decision-making could [*94] be achieved if more accurate, less costly,
more sensitive techniques were available. Nanotechnology offers the possibility of sensors enabled to be selective or specific, detect multiple analytes, and monitor their presence in real
63 Examples of research in sensors include the development of nano-sensors for efficient and rapid biochemical detection of pollutants; sensors capable of continuous
64 All fundamental life
processes occur at the nanoscale, making it the ideal scale at which to fight diseases. 65 Two quintessential examples of biomedical applications of nanotechnology are advanced drug
delivery systems and nano-enhanced drugs. 66 The promise of advanced drug delivery systems lies in that they direct drug molecules only to where they are needed in the body. 67
One example is focusing chemotherapy on the site of the tumor, instead of the whole body, thereby improving the drug's effectiveness while decreasing its unpleasant side-effects. 68
Other researchers are working to develop nanoparticles that target and trick cancer cells into absorbing certain nanoparticles. 69 These nanoparticles would then kill tumors from within,
avoiding the destruction of healthy cells, as opposed to the indiscriminate damage caused by traditional chemotherapy. 70 Nano-enhanced suicide inhibitors 71 limit enzymatic activity
by forcing naturally occurring enzymes to form bonds with the nanostructured molecule. 72 This may treat conditions such as epilepsy and depression because of the enzyme action
component involved in these conditions. 73 Lastly, nanotechnology has the potential to revolutionize the electronics and optics fields. 74 For instance, nanotechnology has the potential
to produce clean, [*95] renewable solar power. 75 Through a process called artificial photosynthesis, solar energy is produced by using nanostructures based on molecules which capture
light and separate positive and negative charges. 76 Certain Swiss watches and bathroom scales are illuminated through a nanotech procedure that transforms captured sunlight into an
electrical current. 77 In the electronics field, nanostructures offer many different ways to increase memory storage by substantially reducing the size of memory bits and thereby
increasing the density of magnetic memory, increasing efficiency, and decreasing cost. 78 One example is storing memory bits as magnetic nanodots, which can be reduced in size until
they reach the super-paramagnetic limit, the smallest possible magnetic memory structure. 79 Advances in electronics and computing brought on by nanotechnology could allow
reconfigurable, "thinking" spacecraft. 80 Some uses of nano-products already on the market include suntan lotions and skin creams, tennis balls that bounce longer, faster-burning rocket
fuel additives, and new cancer treatments. 81 Solar cells in roofing tiles and siding that provide electricity for homes and facilities, and the prototypic tires, supra, may be on the market
in the next few years. 82 The industry expects advanced drug delivery systems with implantable devices that automatically administer drugs and sensor drug levels, and medical
diagnostic tools such as cancer-tagging mechanisms to be on the market in the next two to five years. 83 It is nearly impossible to foresee what developments to expect in
nanotechnology in the decades to come. 84 Nonetheless, the book Engines of Creation presented one vision of the possibilities of advanced nanotechnology. 85 Nano-machines could
be designed to construct any product, from mundane items such as a chair, to exciting items such as a rocket engine. 86 These "assemblers" could also be programmed to build copies
of themselves. 87 Known as "replicators," these nano-machines could alter the world by producing an exponential quantity of themselves that are to be put to work as assemblers. 88
The development of assemblers could advance the space [*96] exploration program, 89 biomedical field, 90 and even repair the damage done to the world's ecological systems. 91
Over time, production costs may sharply decrease because the assemblers will be able to construct all future products from an original blueprint at virtually no additional cost. 92 Part III:
time.
measurement over large areas; integration of nano-enabled sensors for real-time continuous monitoring; and sensors that utilize "lab-on-a-chip" technology.
With the good, however, comes the bad. The "gray goo problem," the most well-known unwanted
93 arises when replicators and assemblers produce almost anything, and subsequently
spread uncontrolled, obliterating natural organisms and replacing them with nano-enhanced organisms. 94
A more foreseeable issue is environmental contamination. 95 The EPA noted As nanotechnology progresses
from research and development to commercialization and use, it is likely that manufactured nanomaterials and nanoproducts will be released
into the environment. . The unique features of manufactured nanomaterials and a lack of experience with these materials hinder the risk evaluation that is
Nanotechnology's Side-Effects
potential consequence of the spread of nanotechnology,
needed to inform decisions about pollution prevention, environmental clean-up and other control measures, including regulation. Beyond the usual concerns for most toxic materials ... the
adequacy of current toxicity tests for chemicals needs to be assessed ... . To the extent that nanoparticles [*97] ... elicit novel biological responses, these concerns need to be accounted
96 In addition, nanotechnology could

change the face of global warfare and terrorism. 97 Assemblers could be used to duplicate existing weapons out of
superior materials, and chemical and biological weapons could be created with nano-enhanced
components. 98 Modern detection systems would be inadequate to detect nano-enhanced
for in toxicity testing to provide relevant information needed for risk assessment to inform decision making.
99 Luckily, nanotechnology offers responses to these problems, and researchers are already tackling these issues. 100 "Labs101 Adding smart materials could make soldiers' uniforms
resistant to certain chemical and biological agents. 102 Nanotechnology also enhances threats against citizens. Drugs and bugs (electronic surveillance devices) could be used by police
states to monitor and control its citizenry. 103 Viruses could be created that target specific genetic characteristics. 104 Not only is the development of technologically advanced,
weapons built with innocuous materials such as carbon.
on-a-chip," a sensor system the size of a microchip, could be woven into soldiers' uniforms to detect toxins immediately.
devastating weaponry itself a hazardous effect of nanotechnology, but also, millions of dollars have already been spent researching potential uses of nanotechnology in the military
105
sphere,
thus diverting funds from more beneficial uses such as biomedical applications and clean energy. However, these negative effects are not inevitable. By analyzing the scope
of potential drawbacks accompanying these research investments, lawmakers can institute regulatory controls that could mitigate these problems. [*98] Part IV: Maximizing Benefits,
To minimize or eliminate the problems associated with nanotechnology, while

maximizing the beneficial effects, nanotechnology research and development should be
monitored and regulated by "trustworthy systems." 106 Currently, the
federal government oversees a massive funding and research program with the
purpose of "ensuring U nited S tates global leadership in the development and application of
Minimizing Catastrophe

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nanotechnology." 107 Nonetheless, as nanotechnology becomes more prevalent, more thorough regulation may
be necessary. 108 Nanotechnology may greatly impact some of the largest revenue producing industries in the United States, such as the pharmaceutical and
medical fields, utilities and power generation, and computer electronics.
109 Thus, it is clear that nanotechnology will likely touch every facet of human life. In addition, these powerful
federal
government must regulate nanotechnology for the public good as it pertains to these
industries have been known to promote profits over human safety,
110 one of the reasons for their stringent regulation. [*99] The
111 Each system has its advantages and disadvantages. 112 The system should be accountable to
113 while minimizing "the traditional laments of the bureaucratic agency: lack of efficiency, duplication of effort, and
subjection to Congressional and judicial requirements in enacting regulations." 114 Certain proposals are outlined briefly in this article as examples of what can be done to regulate
industries. The form and scope of the trustworthy systems are being debated.
judicial review and public comment, as well as transparent,
nanotechnology.
Uncontrolled and unregulated nanotech development causes

extinction
*Non-state actors and terrorists would release nanobots= grey goo.
*Once this starts, its hard to stop
*Inter-state arms races leads to war due to miscalc and escalation.
Bostrom 2 (Nice, Ph.D, Professor Oxford University, and Winner Eugene R.
Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement, Existential Risks
Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards, Journal of Evolution
and Technology, 9, March, http://www.nickbostr...ial/risks.html)
In a mature form, molecular nanotechnology will enable the construction of bacteriumscale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter [22-25]. Such
replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it,
burning it, or blocking out sunlight. A person of malicious intent in possession of this
technology might cause the extinction of intelligent life on Earth by
releasing such nanobots into the environment.[9] The technology to produce a
destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the
technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech
immune system, an active shield [23]). It is therefore likely that there will be a period of vulnerability
during which this technology must be prevented from coming into the
wrong hands. Yet the technology could prove hard to regulate, since it doesnt require rare radioactive isotopes or large,
easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons [23]. Even if effective defenses against a limited
there
will still be the danger of an arms race between states possessing
nanotechnology. It has been argued [26] that molecular manufacturing would lead to both arms race instability and crisis
instability, to a higher degree than was the case with nuclear weapons. Arms race instability means that
there would be dominant incentives for each competitor to escalate its
armaments, leading to a runaway arms race. Crisis instability means that there would be dominant
incentives for striking first. Two roughly balanced rivals acquiring nanotechnology
would, on this view, begin a massive buildup of armaments and weapons
development programs that would continue until a crisis occurs and war breaks out, potentially causing
nanotech attack are developed before dangerous replicators are designed and acquired by suicidal regimes or terrorists,
global terminal destruction . That the arms race could have been predicted is no guarantee that an international
security system will be created ahead of time to prevent this disaster from happening. The nuclear arms race
between the US and the USSR was predicted but occurred nevertheless.

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Heg
Air Force/Navy/Aerospace
Bioterrorism
709
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Solvency
Contention 1 is Solvency:
The plan would create collaboration that vastly increases
student exchanges and university research cooperation
through joint degree programs
8/5/13, Keerthi)
To attain this goal, it makes sense to create a binational task force on educational
opportunities that would include leading government officials; university
presidents from the two countries; business leaders from the two countries
closely identified with higher education; and key educational organizations
.COMEXUS (Fulbright-Garca Robles Commission), the only truly binational education organization, could serve as a secretariat. An ambitious agenda
for educational exchange would include a series of public/private
partnerships to strengthen student exchange, create joint degree
programs and fund strategic partnerships between universities on both sides of the border
to develop common research and training programs. This is the kind of
exercise that would both interest and benefit the private sector, leading
educational institutions, and multiple levels of government . The goal
would be to encourage additional public and private funding for four sets
of targeted educational exchange opportunities: Increased funding for
scholarships to study abroad in the other country via Comexus and other
scholarship-offering programs. This may need to privilege semester and year-abroad study rather than full two or five-year graduate programs
in the other country, but the specific goals of the programs must be designed in consultation with universities, philanthropic organizations and the private sector. The goal would be to first
and foremost give students in the two countries a strategic exposure to the educational resources in the other country, with only a secondary focus on funding full degree programs
This would allow for vastly increasing the numbers of students involved
abroad.
.
In addition to these steps towards boosting exchanges, it will be important to develop mechanisms to encourage universities to start their own scholarship programs for semesters/years
abroad in the other country, building on existing efforts. Identifying leading institutions in both countries, universities that are already heavily committed to international exchange and
the Task Force should work towards

helping universities in creating binational joint Masters degree programs ,
involving a semester in the other country. Ideally this would include the development of networks of graduate study
have a track record of success in this field, will be of considerable help. Furthermore,
programs to maximize choice for students. In order to identify which programs would likely grow quickly, it is worth examining what the preferences of exchange students are today.
Mexican students travelling to the U.S. tend to focus their studies in two main areas: business and engineering, with 22% and 17% of the total respectively. For US students opting to study
In order to foster
stronger ties not only between students but also between university researchers, it is imperative
that seed funding is created to encourage university to university
partnerships on research. USAIDs TIES program pioneered this, but it was unilateral and then disappeared. A truly binational approach, with
competitive seed funding to encourage research partnerships, would be particularly exciting. The implementation of these
proposals would be facilitated by the existence of common standards
in Mexico, there is a bias towards the social sciences that highlights their curiosity for Latin American studies, history and culture.
between the two countries for higher education . A number of Mexican

university programs are already accredited in U.S. systems (such as the Accreditation Council for
Business Schools and Programs (ACBSP)). However, another alternative would be to develop joint
accreditation systems for university degrees, working with existing accreditation organizations, governments and
universities.

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The creation of a forum will get public and private universities

to remove barriers and massively increase the number of USMexico student exchanges.
Boz 13 (James, May 3, Freelance writer and consultant working on Latin American
politics, security, economics and technology issues, regarded as one of the top
foreign policy bloggers and reporters, runs his popular Latin American foreign policy
blog called Blogging by Boz, Writes for Woodrow Wilson Center, Fixing the problems
in US-Mexico student exchanges http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/02/couldinstability-spread-to-latin.html, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
One of the announcements that the US and Mexican governments want to highlight from President Obama's trip is the creation of the United States-Mexico Bilateral Forum on Higher
Education, Innovation, and Research. The vaguely wordedvannouncement promises to "encourage broader access to quality post-secondary education for traditionally underserved
demographic groups, especially in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. They will also expand educational exchanges, increase joint research on education
education exchanges between the

US and Mexico have stagnated or fallen for the past decade. What the presidents didn't say
yesterday is that this is something that needs to be fixed because it is a real problem. The numbers and quality of student
exchanges between the two countries are quite poor and have been for some time. The number of Mexican
and learning, and share best practices in higher education and innovation." This is important as
university students in the US holds steady around 13,000 to 14,000, and that number has barely increased over the last decade (it was 12,500 in 2002). The opposite direction is worse.
The number of US students studying in Mexico peaked in 2006 over 10,000. However, security concerns caused numerous US university programs to pull out of the country. By 2011, the
number was only 4,100 US students in Mexico. That's less than the number of US students studying in Costa Rica and Argentina and is only slightly above Brazil, Chile and Ecuador.
To
reach President Obama's goal to double the number of student exchanges in the hemisphere, including 100,000 US
students in Latin America, the numbers for US-Mexico student exchanges will need to be at
least 20,000 and probably 25,000, students traveling in each direction. We're nowhere near that number and
the trend lines are not looking good, thus the need for this initiative. There are at least four areas
where this forum can help improve the numbers: admissions, tuition, credit
transfer and security. On admissions, universities need confidence that the exchange
students are qualified and students need relief from burdensome
paperwork that some of these programs demand. Usually, this is fixed by one-off agreements
between individual universities. This forum could help create a larger
system agreed to by multiple universities that could ease this process and
open up additional opportunities for students in both directions . Tuition needs to be more
transparent for students, so they know how much they are spending and where that money goes when they enter an exchange program. Government
encouragement and regulations can help empower students on this front
and make exchange programs more affordable. Students can't go on
exchange programs if the credits don't transfer and it requires an
additional semester of university to graduate. Universities need to
communicate and collaborate to better understand how classes and
prerequisites overlap and how they can count towards credits. This is one area that
should be easier in STEM than it is in the social sciences and humanities. On security, US universities need
encouragement to allow their students to travel to Mexico . Unlike the media,
universities should be able to look beyond the hype and recognize that
some areas of the country, including the capital, are relatively safe. Even a
city that is less safe, like Monterrey, has some great universities and
students should be able to make informed decisions about whether they would like to attend. Perhaps
surprising to some US citizens, Mexican universities also need a bit of encouragement on the
security issue after all the coverage of school shootings in the US. This is a dialogue that
needs to go in both directions. Of course, governments can only encourage these goals . The reason
this is a "forum" is that it needs the voluntary cooperation of public and
private universities to be a success. Governments (at least governments that aren't China) cannot force students to study abroad, nor
are they going to provide significant additional resources. The hope is that the forum can get universities, civil society and the
private sector talking.

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MEXICO EXCHANGES AFF

2AC

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Inherency

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A2 Obama/Nieto Announced Student

Programs
Thats literally all they said they announced they would
like more cooperation. Just saying, we want more
cooperation isnt actually concrete policy. The
affirmative plan is the follow-up policy.

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Solvency

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2ac perception solvency

AND, even if the plan doesnt fully revitalize student
interactions, it creates the perception of business and cultural
student ties and overcomes NAFTA flaws.
Lara 12 (Tania, MA Global Policy Studies at The UTA, researcher at 21st Century
Border Initiative, July 19, NAFTA Fumbles on U.S./Mexico Student Exchange
Programs, Politics-365, cites the Institute of International Education and Mexican
Census Office, http://politic365.com/2012/07/19/nafta-fumbles-on-u-s-mexicostudent-exchange-programs/, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi) *Says that some programs
have been created with China
Mexico is now the third largest trade partner for the U.S. after
NAFTA However, Mexico and the U.S. have barely managed to
prepare a bi-national pool of professionals
The
number of Americans studying
in Mexico and
Mexicans coming to
American institutions is distant from the economic ties
Mexican
students rank ninth in the number of foreign students in American
institutions
few Mexican and American professionals have a deep
understanding of the realities and challenges of their neighbor country.
18 years of signing the North American
Free Trade Agreement (
).
able to deeply understand the socioeconomic reality of both countries.
abroad
the number of
far
of both neighbor countries.
, behind China, India, South Korea, Canada, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, and even Vietnam, according to the Institute of International Education (IIE). When studying abroad, Mexico is the eighth destination
chosen by American college and graduate students. Therefore,
The
importance of student exchange programs to foster economic relationships has been recognized by President Obamas 100,000 Strong initiative, which seeks to increase the number of American students in China. A similar
initiative should be launched to increase the flows of Mexican and

American students in both countries. One example of the lack of binational professionals is the shortage of attorneys
After 18 years of the
NAFTA signing, firsthand experiences have shaped the understanding
between both countries.
Mexico is the top destination abroad for

American tourists
who are able to understand the legal limitations and regulations on both
sides of the Southwest border. There is currently only one joint program between the U.S. and Mexico intended to prepare attorneys to practice law in both countries.
Mexicans are the largest legal and undocumented immigrant population in the U.S. and the same happens south of the border with Americans being the
largest foreign-born population in Mexico, according to the Mexican Census office INEGI.
When on vacation,
while the opposite is true for Mexicans. Large numbers of Mexicans work for American transnational corporations, watch American films and TV series, and enjoy American music.
Their contact with American tourists, and imported products have also crafted perceptions of the United States in Mexico. At the same time, immigrants from Mexico, news from the border, the growing presence of Tex-Mex and Mexican
perceptions based on
influences can hold stereotypes or outdated information
food, beer, and Spanish-language in the U.S. has shaped American perceptions of Mexico. However,
vacation trips and other
cultural
. In the latest Pew Global Attitudes poll, 47% of Mexicans
said they dislike American ways of doing business, and 56% responded that it is bad that American ideas and customs spread in Mexico. When asked in 2006, Americans agreed that Mexico is important to the future of their country but
Universities in the U.S. are the top destination

for Mexican seeking degrees overseas
Stronger student exchange
programs
would not only help Mexicans and Americans
but also help them to get a sophisticated knowledge of both countries and
benefit the relationship
they harbored deep suspicions about their neighbor, according to a Zogby poll.
, however, more Mexicans could be taking the advantage of enrolling in some of the worlds best universities as
their Chinese counterparts are doing. Studying in the U.S. is one of the best ways to gain great insights in American business culture.
between Mexico and the U.S.
trade
to improve their language skills
between both countries in the long term.

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A2 China/India/SK Fill the Gap

1AC Kluger indicates students in China are staying in
China because of larger research capabilities and
institutions.
Chinese/Indian/SK students are staying in their own
nations, leaving the US or they are going to other
competitors this supercharges uniqueness and the
impact scenarios.
Lane and Kinser 13 (Jason E. Lane, Deputy Director for research, associate professor of
educational administration and policy studies at the University at Albany, Kevin Kinser, Institute fellow and
associate professor in the University at Albanys School of Education, May, The US Relies Heavily on
Foreign Students to Support STEM Fields and the Knowledge Economy: Could the Foreign Talent Bubble
Burst?, The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government,
http://www.rockinst.org/observations/lanej/2013-05-Is_Bubble_Bursting.aspx, Keerthi, Acc 10/28/13)
Second, about half of all foreign applicants are from one nation: China.
In fact, the NSF reports that about 40 percent of all foreign students who received doctoral degrees from
2001-11 came from China.
According to the CGS report, applications to
graduate school from China declined by 5 percent. This is a

dramatic reversal
following seven consecutive years of double-digit increases in Chinese
applications. In an ideal scenario, the proportion of applications would be distributed among enough
the decline
in Chinese applications was offset by a 20 percent increase in
applications from India. But that is only shifting, not diversifying,
the source. In fact, the NSF data reveals that individuals from China, India, and South Korea account
for half of all doctoral degrees in science and engineering awarded to foreign visa holders. When
most foreign applicants come from just a few source countries, what
happens when those students suddenly start deciding to go
nations that a downturn in one country is offset by an increase in another. And, in fact,
somewhere else ? This trend is also set again a broader backdrop

of two consecutive years of overall decline in the number of
individuals attending graduate school in the United States. While other
nations are reducing barriers to attract intellectual talent and their institutions are intensifying recruitment
of foreign graduate students, universities in the U.S. may have become complacent. Recent data suggest
that it is an unfounded expectation that interest among foreign students in U.S. universities will never
The reality is that we are in an intensifying worldwide

competition that Ben Wildavsky calls the great brain race. While
nations like Australia, Canada, and many in the European Union are
actively recruiting such students and looking to tear down
regulatory barriers, the U.S. sets up roadblocks through a
complicated and risk-adverse visa system. Some states (e.g., Colorado and
wane.
Washington) are even looking to legislate higher fees for international students as a way to generate more
money. Moreover,
China, India, and South Korea are all investing
significantly in their domestic higher education systems
(in some cases
importing U.S. campuses) as a means to reduce the number of their students studying overseas. Finally,
incidents such as the recent Boston bombing are causing many foreign students to re-evaluate the safety
of this country, as well as further heighten scrutiny of the U.S. student visa approval and verification
process. The sum of all of these developments suggests that the U.S. dominance in the race may be
challenged in the stretch. Do these trends portend the end of graduate education as we know it in the
U.S.? Likely not. But
so much of our STEM-related research infrastructure

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has come to rely on China sending us their graduate students.

States should consider what might happen to our knowledge
economy if China (or India) continues to cut back? Even though immigration is
primarily a federal policy issues, state policymakers should be aware of how their decisions might affect
the flow of students.
Data proves those countries cant solve applicants are

declining.
Redden 13 (Elizabeth Redden, July 12 2013, Insider Higher Ed, Foreign
Student Dependence, sidehighered.com/news/2013/07/12/new-reportshows-dependence-us-graduate-programs-foreign-students, Keerthi, acc
10/31/13)
CGS data on applications to U.S. graduate schools released in April show
that total international applications grew by a meager 1 percent
this year and that there were actually drops in applications from
certain key sending countries, including China (-5 percent), South Korea (-13
percent) and Taiwan (-13 percent). On the plus side, applications from India increased 20 percent.

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A2 Mexicans Are Insignificant Lobe 2004

1. The link evidence we read in the 1AC is much better
about how Mexico students are vital to filling the gap.
Specifically, the plan would expand the number of
Mexican students to 20,000 students. Their evidence is
just a snapshot of the status quo right now, Mexican
student exchange systems are low.
2. NMS indicates that students from the main science
nations like China and South Korea are staying in their
own nations because they have better research capacity.
3. The Lobe evidence even says after their highlighted
part that the number of students from Europe, the Middle
East and other nations are heavily falling. Theres still a
need for the AFF.

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A2 Expansion in Exchanges Fall Flat Without

Struc Reform Borjas 2
1. This evidence never says anything about Mexico
specifically prefer specificity of evidence here. Our Boz
13 and Wood 13 evidence is very specific to how the plan
would expand the foreign exchange programs between
the US and Mexico. Their evidence is more than a decade
old prefer us.
2. The affirmative literally solves any structural reform
required thats Wood 13. We would consolidate the
program, decrease corruption in universities, lead to
accountability and create systems of exchange that
prevent students from utilizing loopholes. Boz 13
indicates that we would create the inter-university ties
necessary for ongoing reforms.

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A2 High Tuition Rates Prevent Solvency

Guilamo-Ramos 13
The affirmative plan resolves this Wood 13 indicates that
the plan would do several things to make college more
affordable for students in both nations to encourage
exchange. First, wed create incentives for the private
sector like public-private partnerships that encourage
them to provide free schooling. The plan would also invest
in COMEXUS scholarships and Fulbright, leading to less
overall costs. The overall streamlining the plan
accomplishes would decrease costs of organization and
bureaucracy.

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A2 Mexican Internet Needed

Mexico is solving Internet access they are expanding
telecom and broadband.
Marcus and Kuhlmann 13 (J. Scott Marcus, Florence School of
Regulatoin, Federico Kuhlmann, Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mxico,

Broadband plans in Latin America: Common challenges, diverse solutions:
Comparison of Mexico and Costa Rica, pdf, Keerthi, acc 10/28/13)
The National Development Plan 2007-2012 was a product of the
Calderon government.20 It attempted to take a consistent approach
to both transport and telecommunications (ICTs), which, as we have
already seen, pose interrelated challenges. The primary goals of the
plan in this space were to enhance national and regional coverage of
telecommunications, to more efficient telecommunications and transport of goods within Mexico
and into and out of Mexico, and thereby to enable these sectors to contribute to Mexican
competitiveness.
Main elements of the plan
market players in order
were: To increase competition among
to (1) increase coverage within the country , and (2)
drive competitive prices that would enable more people to utilize

these services . To modernize the regulatory framework so as to
enable the growth of telecommunications, the development and deployment of new
technologies, and safety and trust in the use of electronic services and transactions. To
encourage the use of e-government services at all levels of
government
To promote coverage of
in order to foster greater use of ICT services.
at least 60% of the population by telecommunications , thus encouraging the

creation of high value content with high impact for the population.
sustainable financing schemes
To introduce
in support of the use of ICTs and business continuity.
To development mechanisms to encourage greater investment in

deployment of infrastructure and the provision of telecommunication services.

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STEM

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A2

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A2 STEM Outpacing Demand

Extend Crotty 13 that is just not statistically true there
are 3.2 million STEM jobs that go unfilled yearly whitecollar jobs are being abandoned. This evidence cites data
prefer that to their speculative claims.
Even if STEM jobs are filled, that doesnt solve
competitiveness, which our STEM advantage is based on.
We need to excel beyond the necessary to compete with
China, SK, etc.
STEM supply is low, and even if it isnt, the demand is
about to decline heavily in the next few years.
Langfield 13 (Amy Langfield, 11 Sep 2013, Teen job interest survey
shows STEM skills decline, http://www.cnbc.com/id/101014361, Keerthi, Acc

10/30/13)
The U.S. D epartment o f L abor forecasts strong job growth in the science, technology, engineering or math (STEM) fields, but a
new study indicates teenagers may think those careers aren't as cool
as they were even a year ago. A national sample of teenagers ages 14 to 18 found a 17 percent drop
off in interest in jobs in the STEM or medical field. The big new category: "I don't know."
Of the 1,025 teens surveyed, 30 percent of the boys and 16 percent of the girls indicated some interest in STEM careers. A year ago, 41
percent of the boys and 21 percent of the girls were on board. Medical-related jobs (including doctor, nurse, dental hygienist and other jobs)
also took a hit dropping to 13 percent from 30 percent a year ago. (Read more: Jobs skills gap: The basics become a problem) Teens were
allowed to answer "yes" to more than one category when asked what type of field they'd like to work in, so the overall total exceeds 100
percent. Other options include public service (17 percent), the arts (14 percent), entrepreneur (12 percent), business or law (11 percent) and
sports (9 percent). "Other" garnered 11 percent while "I don't know what kind of job I want to do after school," (which wasn't an option in the
survey a year earlier) drew 15 percent. Play Video August unemployment rate: 7.3%
Employers added just
169,000 jobs in August . Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao, discusses whether this complicates the Fed's
plans for tapering. "The low labor participation rate is due to laborers who are leaving the workforce, going to school or going on disability,"
she says. The 2013 Teens & Careers survey was co-sponsored by Junior Achievement, ING U.S. Foundation and conducted by GfK Public
Affairs & Corporate Communications. The survey's margin of error is +/- 3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. JA has been doing the
survey in some format since 2002, but only polled its own members until 2009 when it switched to a national sample of randomly selected
The waning interest in the STEM jobs may prove worrisome amid
other reports of workforce unpreparedness.
teens.

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A2 Foreign Students Dont Matter to STEM

Foreign students are vital to STEM we also solve
relations.
AIECE 13 (Alliance for International Educational and Cultural Exchange,
7/23/13, International students essential to U.S. STEM programs, report
finds, http://www.alliance-exchange.org/policymonitor/07/23/2013/international-students-essential-us-stem-programsreport-finds, Keerhti, Acc 10/30/13)
A recent report from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) finds that
international students not only help drive the success of STEM
graduate programs in the U.S., but also provide important cultural

diplomacy and foreign policy benefits. The report, The Importance of International
Students to America, which uses 2010 data from the N ational S cience F oundation, finds
that international students are the majority of students enrolled in
U.S. STEM graduate programs: 53 per cent of all STEM graduate students are international. Some
fields, such as Electrical Engineering, have more than 70 per cent international students. The NFAP report concludes that
International
students provide a key source of talent for U.S. employers and are
crucial to enhancing the ability of U.S. universities to conduct
research and offer high quality academic programs to U.S. students. International students also provide cultural
these high numbers of international students in STEM programs are essential for several reasons:
and foreign policy benefits to the United States and are an important and inexpensive way to promote American ideas and
values abroad.
Key to STEM vital to research capacity.

Redden 13 (Elizabeth Redden, July 12 2013, Insider Higher Ed, Foreign
Student Dependence, insidehighered.com/news/2013/07/12/new-reportshows-dependence-us-graduate-programs-foreign-students, Keerthi, acc
10/31/13)
International students play a critical role in sustaining quality science,
technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) graduate programs at U.S.
universities, a new report from the National Foundation for American Policy
(NFAP) argues.
It will come as no surprise to observers of graduate education that the report documents the fact that foreign
students make up the majority of enrollments in U.S. graduate
programs in many STEM fields , accounting for 70.3 percent of all full-time graduate students in
electrical engineering, 63.2 percent in computer science, 60.4 percent in industrial engineering, and more than 50 percent
in chemical, materials and mechanical engineering, as well as in economics (a non-STEM field). However, the report,
which analyzes National Science Foundation enrollment data from 2010 by field and institution, also shows that these
striking averages mask even higher proportions at many individual universities. For example, there are 36 graduate
programs in electrical engineering where the proportion of international students exceeds 80 percent, including seven
where it exceeds 90. (The analysis is limited to those programs with at least 30 full-time students.)
International students help many universities have enough
graduate students to support research programs that help attract

top faculty and that also thereby help U.S. students by having a
higher-quality program than they otherwise would have, said Stuart Anderson, NFAPs executive
director and author of the report. Without them, he said, youd see a shrinking across

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the board where youd have just certain schools that are able to
support good programs. That would lead to a shrinking of U.S.
leadership in education and technology if you have many fewer programs with high-quality
research and top-level professors.

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A2 Alt Causes
The only issue is capacity of workers 1AC says plan
resolves this.
Kurtzleben 13 (Danielle Kurtzleben, Juny 19, The (Not So) Simple
Roadmap to Solving STEM Problems,
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/06/19/the-not-so-simpleroadmap-to-solving-stem-problems, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
In a keynote speech at the U.S. News 2013 STEM Solutions conference, Surya Kant, president of IT consulting firm Tata
Employers
in STEM fields nationwide are concerned about this coming dearth
Consulting Services, cited those figures to stress the crisis that employers believe they will soon face.
of STEM workers , and Kant identified
four
steps for how employers can help to boost STEM
increasing capability; building capacity ; enhancing

quality; and improving employability. The whole process sounds simple, if a bit jargon-y: solving STEM
problems is a matter of four steps and eight words. However, spelling out what exactly is involved in
these steps shows just how steep the climb ahead might be for America's employers and schools. Increasing
education and train future workers:
capability , for
example, involves identifying which skills a STEM worker will need, then relaying that
information to employers, said Kant.
Building capacity, explained Kant, is a daunting task of

getting kids into STEM courses
minorities . The last two steps, meanwhile, involve ensuring that classes are high-
both boosting the number of teachers and
particularly
girls and
quality and that they leave students employable.

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A2 Alt Cause Teachers

Status quo solves teacher flaws.
DOE 13 (Dept of Education, IMPROVING SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND
MATHEMATICS (STEM) EDUCATION,

http://www2.ed.gov/about/overview/budget/budget13/crosscuttingissues/stemed.pdf, Keerthi,
Acc 10/31/13)
Obama has identified an overarching goal to improve
President
our STEM education
compared to other nations, and identified three overarching priorities to ensure more students develop the skills needed to succeed in the STEM fields: improving
the quality of math and science teachers

and are motivated to pursue STEM degrees and careers;
so more students have opportunities for high-quality STEM learning
improving undergraduate teaching practices
so more well-prepared STEM students persist to a degree in these

fields;
and expanding STEM education and career opportunities for underrepresented groups, including women and minorities. The Presidents 2013 budget
request for the Department of Education and Blueprint for Reform of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act will help to strengthen Americas leadership in the 21st
century by improving STEM education. $150 million for Effective Teaching and Learning: STEM, which would replace the current Mathematics and Science Partnerships
program. This new program would support the transition to college- and career-ready standards by helping States improve teaching and learning in science, technology,
engineering and mathematics, and it would be connected to the math-science partnership program at NSF. Funds would be used to support State implementation of
comprehensive, evidence-based plans; professional development that aligns Federal, State, and local resources to promote high-quality STEM instruction; and for
subgrants to high-need LEAs to support comprehensive STEM instruction in the grades and schools with the greatest needs. The President has announced an ambitious
goal of preparing 100,000 excellent STEM teachers over the next decade. To move toward this goal, programs in the Presidents budget would support existing STEM
teachers, improve the quality of STEM teacher preparation programs, and recruit the best STEM undergraduates to careers in teaching through investments such as: o
program
would provide competitive awards to create or expand high-quality
pathways to teacher certification and other innovative approaches for recruiting, training, and placing talented recent
college graduates and mid-career professionals in the STEM fields in high-need schools. o A new Presidential Teaching
Fellows program ($190 million) to fund formula grants to States to support scholarships for
talented students to attend top-tier teacher preparation programs and work in high-need
$80 million for the STEM teacher and leader training and professional development set aside from the Effective Teachers and Leaders program. This
schools and subjects, including
STEM . Presidential Teaching Fellows would be selected on the basis of grade-point average, major in a high-need academic
subject, and commitment to working in high- need schools, with a priority for low-income students.

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US STEM Low
STEM competitiveness low government action and
encouragement of programs is key
--plan popular
Gordon and Shea 13 (Robert Gordon, BA from Harvard University, Ph.D

from MIT in Private Economics, Stanley G. Harris Professor of the Social
Sciences at Northwestern University, Robert Shea, former Associate Director
for the U.S. Office of Management and BudgetJune 28 2013, No Time to
Waste in Making STEM Education Work,
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/06/28/stem-education-willkeep-america-competitive, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
Although Democrats and Republicans don't agree on much today, they have a moral
imperative to make progress where they do. One area for potential
cooperation is in better educating our children in math and science . This is
critical to keeping America competitive globally
and creating good jobs here at
home. And we all know that in an era of budget deficits, we will need to achieve better results without spending more.
Both those
goals can be met through bipartisan reforms in the STEM
fields of science, technology, engineering and math.

$3 billion annually on STEM education,
Despite spending nearly
America ranks 25th in math and 17th in
science when compared to other countries on international

assessments. A 2012 report from the G overnment A ccountability O ffice found that 83
percent of federally funded STEM education efforts had duplicative
elements. Today, 13 federal agencies run 226 different STEM programs. Most of them aren't coordinated and aren't
accountable for results. They are more responsive to individual members of Congress than actual needs in the classroom
or our economy. As former Office of Management and Budget officials under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack
our government can increase its focus on rigorous

evidence in STEM programs.
Obama, we know firsthand that

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STEM solvency human capital

In Lay + Speed 1AC
The plan capitalizes on human capital and potential.
*Now key- Mexico is poised to move from a middle income to high income country
8/5/13, Keerthi)
At a time when the Mexican and United States governments are looking for
an opportunity to diversify the bilateral agenda and strengthen the economic relationship,
there is an urgent need to focus on the long term challenges of
competitiveness and human capital in the region. Questions of infrastructure, standards,
border procedures and energy are all crucial to this equation, but an emerging issue that has been
little discussed in the public sphere is that of educational cooperation. Several
experts and government officials have long recognized this as a potential growth area in the bilateral relationship,
there are now greater opportunities than ever to further develop

educational collaboration. Mexico urgently needs to build its human capital
but
to move from a middle income to high income country. Indeed, the Pea Nieto government's first major legislative
effort has been a constitutional reform of the K-12 system to improve the quality of education. Ho wever,
a
second area that requires major attention is undergraduate and graduate
education, especially in STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering
and mathematics) and innovation. At the same time, the United States needs to
develop the cultural and linguistic capacities that would allow Americans in
professions ranging from nursing to teaching to business to better communicate with the
growing Spanish-language population in the United States and to take
advantage of commercial and investment opportunities in the Western Hemisphere.
There exists, therefore, a powerful logic for the two governments to work
together to seek mutually beneficial solutions to their educational needs.
One excellent way of doing so would be to encourage higher levels of university-level exchanges between them.

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STEM solvency Hispanics key

In Lay +Speed 1AC
Hispanic workers are key to filling in the void

Crotty 11(James Marshall Crotty, Contributor at Forbes News, Are Hispanics America's Next Great STEM
Innovators?, Forbes, 11/22/11, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesmarshallcrotty/2011/11/22/are-hispanics-americasnext-great-stem-innovators/)
Unemployment in the U.S. is at its highest since the mid-80s, college graduates are struggling to find jobs in
their respective fields, and the so-called American Dream is slipping farther out of reach. Yet, there are 3.2 million
available jobs in this country in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) fields. Right now.
Today. This moment. Moreover, according to the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 63% of those with only associates
degrees in STEM earn more than those with bachelors degrees in non-STEM occupations. In addition, 47% of those with bachelors degrees in STEM
there is a much smaller salary gap

between men and women in STEM fields than in other occupations. Nevertheless, 3.2 million
STEM jobs go unfilled because there are not the qualified applicants to fill
occupations earn more than Ph.D.s in non-STEM occupations. Also,
them . With these facts as a backdrop, you would think that every kid in America would be scrambling to take a STEM major. Wrong. One study
Whom then can
we get to qualify for these high-paying, readily available, yet evidently not
very popular jobs? Answer: Hispanics. Over the last several decades, it has primarily been
Hispanic immigrants, legal and illegal, whove done Americas dirty work. Janitors, construction
showed that nearly half of high school students surveyed say they will most likely not pursue a STEM-related degree.
labor, factory workers, meatpacking, housecleaning, cooks, chefs, you name it, Hispanics have done these jobs with drive and aplomb, and nary a
theres no denying that Hispanic immigrants

have taken jobs most Americans eschewed. As Americans seem to be
eschewing key white-collar STEM jobs too, now comes the next and most
important chapter of the Hispanic immigration experience in America : how to
complaint. No matter where you stand on illegal immigration,
move en masse from low-paying but steady work as Americas default blue collar labor force to the leaders of the STEM education revolution that must
the U.S. Hispanic population has now

projected to more than double by 2050
happen if this nation is to maintain its top-tier economic status. Consider this:
surpassed 50 million, and is

. Its the largest, youngest, fastest-growing
minority group in America. Now consider these numbers. Non-Hispanic growth rate in the past decade? 5%. Hispanic growth rate? 43%. Average Hispanic
age in 2009? 27.4 years. Nearly 10 years younger than the population overall. One in three Hispanics in the U.S. are under 18, most of them U.S.-born and
learning English in public schools. The stats go on, and all point to one question: how do we bridge the gap between this countrys young, fast-multiplying,
yet woefully undereducated Hispanic cohort and this nations ever-expanding demand for STEM-educated labor?

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STEM solvency resources

In Speed 1AC
Provides adequate resources.

8/5/13, Keerthi)
The potential for expanding student exchange and international mobility
programs between the United States and Mexico is considerable. By encouraging more students
to spend time in the higher educational institutions of the other country, and by developing the funding programs needed to finance
such an effort, governments, educational authorities and businesses will be contributing to the
creation of a new generation of bilingual, bicultural young professionals
who will be prepared to work in either economy. Particularly in the area of
the sciences and engineering, Mexican students will benefit from high
quality programs and relatively abundant resources. This coincides with a
period in which more Hispanic students in the United States are choosing to
study these degrees. For U.S. students, the benefits of both stronger Spanish language skills on the one hand, and a
greater sensitivity to and understanding of Mexican professional culture on the other, would be considerable, both in the domestic
The creation of a high level, binational commission to fully

develop these ideas, and to seek ways of organizing and funding greater participation and higher quality student
mobility programs between the two countries, is a priority that both governments should
embrace at this time. It is an initiative that offers considerable tangible benefits to both economies and societies, and
and international spheres.
will greatly increase mutual understanding.

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STEM solvency integration

In Lay+Speed 1AC
Integrates students with government agencies, universities and

research institutions.
DOS 13 (Department of State Office of the Spokesperson, May 2 2013, Facts: U.S.-Mexico Forum on Education,
Innovation, Research,
http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2013/05/20130502146702.html#axzz2fUsJx9OT, Keerthi,
Accessed 9/20/13)
Through the High-Level Forum on Higher Education, Innovation, and Research ,

the U.S. and Mexican governments will encourage broader access to quality
post-secondary education for traditionally underserved demographic groups, especially in the
science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. They will also expand educational
exchanges, increase joint research on education and learning, and share best practices in higher education and
innovation. This forum will build upon the many positive educational and research
linkages that already exist through federal, state, and local governments,
public and private academic institutions, civil society, and the private
sector. It will bring together government agency counterparts to deepen
cooperation on higher education, innovation, and research. It will also draw on the expertise of the higher
education community in both countries.

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STEM solvency cultural ties

In Speed 1AC
Current education systems in Mexico and the US are insufficient

student exchanges solve STEM by creating collaboration and
cultural ties.
*Education systems are sufficient on both sides for success after exchanges
Larsen 13 (Estefania Larsen,
department of teaching, learning and teacher education at the University of

Nebraska-Lincoln, Between World: Students Lived Experiences and Perspectives on Math. Science and Technology
Education Between Mexico and the United States, Digital Commons, 5/1/13,
http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1030&context=teachlearnstudent)
Within the context of improving education for

transnational students on both a local, national, and international level, the U nited S tates and
Mexico could employ a variety of policies. Since immigration between the
two countries is likely to remain well in to the future (Castaeda & Massey, 2012),
pathways for success for transnational students should be a primary
concern for educators. First of all, the idea that immigration is one-directional
and students who move to one country will likely stay in that country for the remainder of their lives should be
reconsidered. Transnational students are, by definition, cyclical migrants. They have
moved between countries, sometimes staying only a couple months or a few years at each location. Both the
U nited S tates and Mexico maintain education systems supportive primarily
Implications for Public Policy
for students who will stay for life, meaning they emphasize
acculturation and language-acquisition. For transnational students, this may mean
having to lose part of their other culture, only to return amidst it later in life. While it may be
difficult to assess whether a student is a settler or a sojourner (for more information, see Ziga & Hamann,
Both the United

have to take many strides to improve their education of
transnational and immigrant students within their borders, without the loss of social, cultural,
2009), this should not be an argument against a quality bilingual and multicultural education.
States and Mexico
and academic well-being. 54 Implications for Global Education All across the world, students are consistently
Two major international

measures for STEM education include the PISA and the TIMMS. Countries,
including the United States and Mexico, use these measures to quantitatively and qualitatively
compare their educational systems. Both countries lag behind in science and
math education globally. The United States employs a breadth not depth
approach to curriculum, meaning students sometimes lack valuable critical
thinking skills or the motivation to study in STEM fields (Schmidt, et al., 2001; Bybee &
McCrae, 2011; Engler, 2012). In Mexico, the lack of resources, technology, and
equipment in some schools means that students miss out on valuable
scientific inquiry in a world where technology is rapidly becoming the norm (OECD, 2010; McLaughlin,
measured on their academic skills, both domestically and internationally.
2002). According to Sssmuth (2007), globalization will require a need for a variety of intercultural skills, including
cognitive, digital, emotional, and social skills. While the transnational students in this study are perfectly poised to
the education systems

of the United States and Mexico may actually be stifling these students. On an
be future leaders of interculturalism, due to their movement between cultures,
international policy level, the United States and Mexico should discuss how best to align their education systems so
transnational students moving between them would not lose topics, sequencing, course offerings, or skills. Since the
its important to foster a

mutual respect and offer all students chances to learn from either culture .
United States and Mexico do not share a common culture or language,
All students could benefit from building intercultural skills, and transnational and immigrant students could be the
Using the funds of knowledge that

transnational students bring to the classroom could be a step in building
inspiration 55 behind such an endeavor.

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mutual respect and better communication between Mexico and the United
States. Unfortunately, the amount of stigmatization and currently held beliefs from populations on both sides of
the border will be difficult to change. Regardless, global education reform based on student success and
achievement should be less motivated by who is doing what? and who is doing it better? and, instead, should
focus on how students are acquiring the skills necessary to thrive in an
The current research within

the context of global studies remains largely quantitative, using test
scores, immigration statistics, and various economic measures. This study was an
unclearfuture,prevalentwithinternationalcommunicationandcollaboration.
attempt to navigate away from the quantitative realm and bring the voices of the players, those truly affected by
globalization, into the arena. These transnational students are possibly the most affected by the global education
reform movement and their experiences show stark differences between two countries that share the tenth longest
border in the world (Central Intelligence Agency, 2009). This study shows that the experiences of transnational
students are just as valuable as a research tool for global studies, their voices having given us a glimpse into their
lives, struggles, and successes in education between two different countries. Are these students ready to face the
future? Possibly. Have their educations prepared them for a high quality life? Uncertain.

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STEM solvency underserved students

Incorporates demographically under-served students
Boz 13 (James, May 3, Freelance writer and consultant working on Latin American
politics, security, economics and technology issues, regarded as one of the top
foreign policy bloggers and reporters, runs his popular Latin American foreign policy
blog called Blogging by Boz, Writes for Woodrow Wilson Center, Fixing the problems
in US-Mexico student exchanges http://www.bloggingsbyboz.com/2011/02/couldinstability-spread-to-latin.html, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
One of the announcements that the US and Mexican governments want to highlight from President Obama's trip is the creation
of the United States-Mexico Bilateral Forum on Higher Education, Innovation, and Research. The vaguely worded
announcement promises to "encourage broader access to quality postsecondary education for traditionally underserved demographic groups,
especially in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM)
fields. They will also expand educational exchanges, increase joint research on
education and learning, and share best practices in higher education and
innovation." This is important as education exchanges between the US and
Mexico have stagnated or fallen for the past decade. What the presidents didn't say yesterday is that this is
something that needs to be fixed because it is a real problem. The numbers and quality of student exchanges between the two
countries are quite poor and have been for some time.

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Keerthi Gondi

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2AC extension
The plan solves science diplomacy STEM and specifically
the exchange of students integrates government agencies
and foreign agencies together to improve scientific
dialogue. Specifically, science diplomacy programs with
Mexico and Latin America spill over because Latin America
is our window of opportunity to engage democratization
of knowledge thats Albornoz. Science Diplomacy solves
all of the impacts in this debate. Sackett indicates it
forms mutual governmental bonds which are critical to
tackle all global problems like ecosystems, disease,
energy security, food, water, war and warming.

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US SD Key
The US is a critical international beacon of scientific diplomacyinstitutions will engage with us.
Turekian 10 (Vaugh. Director, Center for Science Diplomacy, American
Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). Keynote Address at USC Center
for on Public Diplomacy Conference, 2010.
http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/media/Science%20Diplomacy%20Proceedings.pdf,
Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
Dr. Vaughan Turekian began his keynote speech at the opening dinner of Science Diplomacy and the Prevention of
a new era of science diplomacy is emerging, one that

brings together a number of relevant actors, including the public
diplomacy community, scientists, NGOs, universities, foundations, and
governments. In recent years we have seen the waning effectiveness of hard,
Conflict with the proposition that
soft, and smart power , and the time is ripe for an emphasis on science
diplomacy. Turekian pointed out that the world appears to be becoming multipolar, with coalitions forming
around specific interests and issues. Nearly every major issue, whether global or
national in scale, features science and technology as either the underlying
cause or ultimate cure. In setting the context for the conference, Turekian noted that the United
States is currently, and for the foreseeable future will be, the worlds
major scientific center . Not only does the United States employ the most
scientists in major research areas, it also spends the most money,
produces the most publications, and is home to many of the worlds top
ranked research universities. However, the United States lead is
decreasing as other countries begin to see the potential for science to
boost economic growth and improve standards of living. Turekian went on to explain
his view of science diplomacy. Since science and diplomacy are two terms that may not always mesh coherently, he
found it useful to delineate the terms in three ways. First, science in diplomacy explains how science can help
identify and address many of the global and foreign policy issues we face today, as can be seen in the case of
climate change. Second, diplomacy for science occurs when the science community requires access to the
resources of other nations and must turn to the diplomatic community for assistance. The International
Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) serves as a prime example. Lastly, there exists science for diplomacy,
commonly known as science diplomacy, which Turekian defined as: the application of international science
cooperation, motivated by the desire to establish or enhance relationships between societies. Turekian addressed
the concept of access in science. Scientists desire access to tangible items such as counterparts, ideas, samples,
While the
science community may desire such tangible resources, the foreign policy
community is primarily interested in influence. Influence may include the
ability to affect how countries make decisions, how they develop, and how
foreign publics view the home country. Science diplomacy is the nexus of
funding, equipment, and machinery, which may only be obtainable through foreign cooperation.
access and influence.

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Intergovt Science Key

The plan is vital to facilitating inter-governmental science
diplomacy.
Stine 09 (Deborah, Specialist in Science and Technology Policy, June 29, Science,
Technology, and American Diplomacy: Background and Issues for Congress,
http://www.policyarchive.org/handle/10207/bitstreams/20035.pdf, Accessed 8/5/13,
Keerthi)
An April 2008 House Committee on Science and Technology Subcommittee on Research and Science Education
One
fundamental question asked during the hearing was why the United States should
support international science diplomacy rather than invest in domestic R&D. For the
United States to be competitive, according to Bush Administration witnesses, it needs to
know where the frontier of science is occurring. As other countries increase
their investment in higher education and R&D, the top science and engineering research and facilities may
not be in the United States, but in other countries. This increases the importance of U.S.
investment in international S&T diplomatic activities, said Bush Administration witnesses, including
federal programs that support U.S. scientists collaborations with foreign
scientists, and access to the best research facilities in the world, as well as
enhancing the international connections of U.S. science and engineering
students and leaders. In addition, U.S. science and engineering higher education and research helps
hearing examined global and domestic benefits from cooperation in science and technology.27
developing countries by enhancing their human resource capacity, and as a result, their ability to achieve long-term
development. These international connections can be important, said Bush Administration witnesses, not just for
those countries, but in helping the U.S. respond to global challenges such as infectious diseases such as avian flu.
Further, according to a Bush Administration witness ,
international cooperative activities at their

agency in almost all instances are conducted on a no exchange of funds basis with
U.S. funding supporting U.S. scientists and engineers, not those in the
cooperating country.28 The degree to which the Obama Administration agrees with this position is not
known at this time. A National Science Board (NSB) report recommends that the
United States create a coherent and integrated international science and engineering strategy, balance U.S.
foreign and R& policy, and promote intellectual exchange. In addition, it recommends reestablishing
the NSTC Committee on International Science, Engineering, and Technology, and appointing a high-level international
S&T policy official in OSTP. Congress, according to NSB, should amend the Government Performance and Results Act
to require Federal agencies to address international S&T partnerships. Further, Congress should direct the
Department of Commerce, OSTP, DOS, and the Department of Homeland Security to balance U.S. security policies
also contends it is important to

facilitate brain circulation as opposed to brain drain, by supporting study abroad
opportunities for American students, (and) streamlining the visa process
for foreign scientists, engineers and students, and identifying and increasing the use of U.S. and
with international science and engineering (S&E) needs. The report
international facilities for collaborative research.

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A2 SD Inevitable
Well concede that Science Diplomacy is inevitable the
question is whether or not it is effective. Their examples
are all reasons why there needs to be better utilization of
Science Diplomacy, not why Science Diplomacy would fail
either way. The plan solves thats the Committee on
Science, Space and Tech 9 evidence it coordinates
federal scientists and agencies with other nations and
their scientists.

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SD Impact Sackett
Extinction is inevitable without scientific exchange and its
key to solving all other impacts.
Sackett 10 (Penny, former Chief Scientist for Australia, former Program Director
at the NSF, PhD in theoretical physics, the Director of the Australian National
University (ANU) Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 8/10, Science
diplomacy: Collaboration for solutions, published in the Forum for AustralianEuropean Science and Technology cooperation magazine,
http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2010/08/science-diplomacy-collaboration-forsolutions/, Accessed 8/5/13, Keerthi)
Imagine for a moment that the globe is inhabited by a single individual who roams free across outback plains,
through rainforests, across pure white beaches living off the resources available. Picture the immensity of the
world surrounding this one person and ask yourself, what possible impact could this single person have on the
planet? Now turn your attention to todays reality. Almost 7 billion people inhabit the planet and this number
increases at an average of a little over one per cent per year. Thats about 2 more mouths to feed every second. Do
these 7 billion people have an impact on the planet? Yes. An irreversible impact? Probably. Taken together this huge
number of people has managed to change the face of the Earth and threaten the very systems that support them .
We are now embarked on a trajectory that, if unchecked, will certainly have

detrimental impacts on our way of life and to natural ecosystems. Some of these are
irreversible, including the extinction of many species. But returning to that single individual, surely two things are
A single person could not have caused all of this, nor can a single person
solve all the associated problems. The message here is that the human-induced
global problems that confront us cannot be solved by any one individual, group,
agency or nation. It will take a large collective effort to change the course that we are on;
nothing less will suffice. Our planet is facing several mammoth challenges: to its atmosphere, to its
resources, to its inhabitants. Wicked problems such as climate change, over-population,
disease, and food, water and energy security require concerted efforts and
worldwide collaboration to find and implement effective, ethical and sustainable solutions. These are
no longer solely scientific and technical matters. Solutions must be viable in the larger
context of the global economy, global unrest and global inequality. Common
true.
understandings and commitment to action are required between individuals, within communities and across
international networks. Science can play a special role in international relations. Its participants share a common
language that transcends mother tongue and borders. For centuries scientists have corresponded and collaborated
on international scales in order to arrive at a better and common understanding of the natural and human
world.
Values integral to science such as transparency, vigorous inquiry and

informed debate also support effective international relation practices .
Furthermore, given the long-established global trade of scientific information and results, many important
These links can lead to coalitionbuilding, trust and cooperation on sensitive scientific issues which, when
supported at a political level, can provide a soft politics route to other
policy dialogues. That is, if nations are already working together on global
science issues, they may be more likely to be open to collaboration on
other global issues such as trade and security. Many countries have recognised the value of
international links are already in place at a scientific level.
science diplomacy.
Science diplomacy does work and spills over to actual

policy robust data and the Syria issue empirically proves
most recent evidence.
--OPWC proves that it works
--spill-over from state-to-state contact to actual government policy

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Berg 10/16/13 (Dirk Jan van den Berg, President of Delft University of
Technology. He was formerly Dutch Ambassador to China, and the United
Nations in New York, 10/16/13, Syria chemical weapons teams show how
science can boost peace, http://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/16/opinion/opcwscience-peace, Keerthi, Acc 10/31/13)
(CNN) -- The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded on October 11 to The
Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the body
overseeing the destruction of Syria's chemical arsenal. Since its
creation in 1993, OPCW has helped eliminate roughly 80% of world's
declared chemical stockpile -- a remarkable achievement.
The spotlight on OPCW underlines the role that science and
technology can play in driving groundbreaking diplomatic
breakthroughs . To be sure, this is not a fundamentally new idea. For
instance, the European Union, last year's winner of the Nobel Prize, has used
energy research to promote peace and prosperity on the continent since at
least 1957 when the EURATOM Treaty was signed.
Dirk Jan van den Berg
What is changing rapidly, however, is the potential for scientific
diplomacy to move beyond state-to-state contact to a much broader
array of actors . This is especially true of the science education community,
including higher education and research.
Science, in terms of research output and quality of higher education, is
becoming an increasingly key factor in international relations. It is now
playing a major role in tackling key global challenges, from climate change to
conflict resolution.
Indeed, in the case of Syria, science will not only help destroy the country's
stockpile of chemical weapons, but also played a major role in providing
irrefutable evidence that they were used in the first place. Remarkably,
technology now allows us to detect complex chemicals through satellite
measurements in areas where conflict is taking place, in addition to
computing the gases that enable these chemicals to be dispersed in the first
place.
Nobel head explains Peace Prize decision EXCLUSIVE - Inside the Syria
weapons lab EXCLUSIVE: Inside chemical weapons lab
To further catalyze the potential of science diplomacy, states should consider
endorsing the idea of "science immunity," an analogy with diplomatic
immunity which I know has so much value from my time as an ambassador.
Taking this bold move could lead to the creation of "science diplomatic
passports." This would allow properly accredited researchers to circulate
more freely, and without political interference, than is often the case due to
restrictive work and travel visa regimes.
This is important for at least two reasons.
Firstly, the decisive breakthroughs in science are increasingly being achieved
through international partnership and funding, and we must embrace this.
Take the example of the landmark discovery last year by Delft University of
the Majorana particle. This groundbreaking research, which heralds major
progress toward the development of the world's first quantum computer, was

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the result of a collaborative effort by a Dutch PhD student and a Chinese

colleague. In today's world, national borders are becoming irrelevant. Such
partnerships are the norm.
The second inter-related reason why the scientific passport could be so
important is the sea-change in the geographical map of science. The
pioneering work of the Thomson Reuters Web of Knowledge Research Project
underlines this vividly.
In 1973, about two thirds of the nearly 400,000 academic research
publications indexed by Thomson Reuters came from the G7 countries. Today,
four times as many documents (around 1.75 million journal publications) are
being indexed, and half originate from outside the G7.
What this underlines is the growing diffusion of knowledge which could be a
massive driver of global economic prosperity in coming decades. In classical
economic growth theory, factors such as population growth and age
composition, alongside presence of arable land and raw materials, are long
term determinants of economic growth patterns.
Recent economic history, however, shows that investment levels in science,
through research and development and higher education, are highly relevant
in explaining emerging growth patterns -- and, therefore, influential in
shaping patterns of international relations too.
Somewhat provocatively the argument could be developed further by the
following: whereas Von Clausewitz stated that war is the continuation of
politics/diplomacy with military means, one could say that science is
continuation of politics/diplomacy with (often) more academic intellect.
Therefore science is, or at least should be, increasingly at the center of
diplomacy as an objective as well as an instrument. In practice, science can
help diplomacy through the establishment of working relations and
exchanges between states, and development of the growing global store of
knowledge, with a continuous quest for research breakthroughs. Equally,
diplomacy can help science in connecting people, creating access and
promoting big science infrastructure.
Taken overall, it is clear that science, research and higher education are key
to our shared future and prosperity. We must now unleash its full potential to
address the growing range of global challenges humanity will face in the
coming decades.

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SD Impact Federoff
Science diplomacy solves the internal link to every major
impact resolves issues related to warming, resource
shortages, economies and public health
Federoff 8 (Nina Federoff, Penn State professor and Obama secretary of state
science and technology adviser, April 2 8. TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE SCIENCE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON RESEARCH AND SCIENCE EDUCATION
http://gop.science.h...l2/fedoroff.pdf)
The welfare and stability of countries and regions in many parts of the globe require
a concerted effort by the developed world to address the causal factors that render
countries fragile and cause states to fail. Countries that are unable to defend their people against
starvation, or fail to provide economic opportunity, are susceptible to extremist ideologies, autocratic rule, and
the world faces common threats, among them climate

change, energy and water shortages, public health emergencies, environmental
degradation, poverty, food insecurity, and religious extremism. These threats can undermine
abuses of human rights. As well,
the national security of the United States, both directly and indirectly. Many are blind to political boundaries,
becoming regional or global threats. The United States has no monopoly on knowledge in a globalizing world and the
Addressing these common challenges

demands common solutions and necessitates scientific cooperation, common
standards, and common goals. We must increasingly harness the power of American
ingenuity in science and technology through strong partnerships with the science
community in both academia and the private sector, in the U.S. and abroad among
our allies, to advance U.S. interests in foreign policy. There are also important challenges to the
scientific challenges facing humankind are enormous.
ability of states to supply their populations with sufficient food. The still-growing human population, rising affluence
in emerging economies, and other factors have combined to create unprecedented pressures on global prices of
staples such as edible oils and grains. Encouraging and promoting the use of contemporary molecular techniques in
crop improvement is an essential goal for US science diplomacy.

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SD Impact Royal Society

And, science diplomacy checks escalation of conflicts its an
impact filter it also solves ocean acidification, Arctic war,
nuclear escalation
Royal Society, 10 a Fellowship of more than 1400 outstanding individuals from all areas of science,
mathematics, engineering and medicine, who form a global scientific network of the highest calibre. The Fellowship
is supported by over 130 permanent staff with responsibility for the day-to-day management of the Society and its
activities. [January, 2010, New frontiers in science diplomacy]
Over the next thirty years, foreign policy will be increasingly shaped by the linked challenges of global
sustainability (Lee 2009). Professor John Beddington FRS, the UK Governments Chief Scientific Adviser, has warned
a perfect storm of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources,
which threaten to unleash public unrest, crossborder conflicts and mass migration
(Beddington 2009). Science will be critical to addressing these challenges , and the priority
of science in diplomacy should be to ensure the effective uptake of high quality
scientific advice by policymakers (NAS 2002). The scientific community must inform
policymakers with up-to-date information on the dynamics of the Earths natural and socio-economic systems.
Scientists must also identify where uncertainties exist, or where the evidence base is
inadequate (Royal Society 2005). Probably the best known example of a mechanism for informing policymaking
of
with scientific advice is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This was established in 1988 by the
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), to provide the
world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socioeconomic consequences. The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, but reviews and produces periodic
assessments of recent scientific, technical and socio-economic research. Thousands of scientists from all over the
world contribute to its work on a voluntary basis. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, and differing
viewpoints within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports. In December 2007, the IPCC was
awarded the Nobel Peace Prize (jointly with former U S Vice- President Al Gore) for their efforts to build up and
disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that
National academies and learned societies are also an

important source of independent scientific advice to international policymakers. For
example, since 2005, the national academies of science of the G8 + 5 countries have met annually
to produce joint statements relating to the themes of the G8 Presidency. Similarly, the InterAcademy Panel
are needed to counteract such change.5
on International Issues (IAP), which represents over 100 of the worlds national academies of science, has published
on ocean acidification and deforestation, as a contribution to the United Nations

Even on sensitive issues of national security, collaboration
between scientists can help to facilitate political negotiations . The Chinese Scientists Group
statements in 2009
climate change negotiations.6
on Arms Control and the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control
(CISAC) recently collaborated on the fi rst Chinese-English glossary of nuclear security terms to remove
barriers to progress in exchanges and diplomatic, cooperative, or other activities where unambiguous
And in the Arctic, a collaborative project led by

the Geological Survey of Canada and involving researchers from Denmark,
Norway, Sweden, Russia and the United States recently published the fi rst
contentious sovereignty claims (Natural Resources Canada 2009). 2.1 Building capacity to give and
understandings is essential (NAS 2008).
receive scientific advice The effective use of scientifi c advice in diplomacy requires international policymakers to
have a minimum level of scientifi c literacy, or at least access to others who have it. It also requires scientists to
communicate their work in an accessible and intelligible way, which is sensitive to its wider policy context. Scientifi c
bodies can help to build this capacity: in the US, efforts to increase the number of scientists serving in the foreign
policy community include the Jefferson Science Fellowships, administered by the National Academies of Science, and
the Science Diplomacy Fellowships offered by the AAAS. Establishing and nurturing links between the scientific and
foreign policy communities informs scientists and policymakers alike: the former about the realities of policymaking;
and the latter about the role and limits of science in policy. Improving the scientifi c capacity of delegations from
developing countries is particularly important, especially for international negotiations on health and climate policy.
For example, health campaigners argue that offi cials from developing countries may lack the necessary expertise to
negotiate technical aspects of the international patent system. The same problem can apply in complex areas of
climate change policy. Scientific bodies can help to address these problems; a recent example being the partnership

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between the InterAcademy Panel and the European Climate Foundation, which convened workshops in Africa, Asia
and Latin America to prepare offi cials from countries in these regions in the run up to the 2009 COP-15 Copenhagen
climate change negotiations. In the UK, the Royal Societys MP-Scientist Pairing Scheme has been running since
2001.
Ocean acidification causes mass extinction empirically proven

Boswell, 11
[Randy. Staff Writer for the Vancouver Sun. Mass extinction due to high ocean acidity: Canadianled team solves biggest mystery in Earth history.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/technology/Mass+extinction+high+ocean+acidity+study/5377124/story.htm
l. September 9.]
A Canadian-led team of scientists may have solved the biggest whodunit in Earth history in a study showing that
the all-time greatest mass extinction on the planet - which wiped out about 90% of
all species 250 million years ago - appears to have been linked to rising levels of
ocean acidity. Researchers have long believed that massive volcanic eruptions in present-day Siberia - or
possibly a huge meteorite strike - triggered the so-called PermianTriassic extinction. But the precise mechanism of
death for so many species remains a subject of debate, with some scientists convinced it was a resulting lack of
the
study, headed by St. Francis Xavier University climate scientist Alvaro
Montenegro, points to ocean acidification as a possible "main culprit " in the
harrowing, prehistoric die-off. And the Nova Scotia researcher told Postmedia News that the finding
should serve as a warning about present-day increases in ocean acidification. Though
oxygen in the Earth's oceans or a greenhouse-gas nightmare that nearly ended all plant and animal life. But
Canadian
still far lower than that experienced in the ancient mass extinction, rising acidity has been documented by
researchers around the world and is linked to the effects of climate change. Using a series of computer simulations to
recreate conditions on the planet at the time, Montenegro and his five colleagues from Canada and Australia found it
unlikely that oxygen-starved oceans led to the mass extinction. Instead, their models pointed to a new prime
Runaway ocean acidification "would

definitely have a very serious biological impact on oceans calcifiers," said Montenegro, referring to
suspect: spiking acid levels in the world's marine environments.
creatures that manufacture their own bodily structures from minerals found in ocean water. Among the species that
vanished from the rock record around the time of the P-T extinction were most of the ammonites - large, snail-shaped
marine creatures that are known today from the beautifully iridescent, multi-coloured fossils of their spiral shells,
found in places such as southern Alberta. The relatively few ammonite species that survived the mass extinction 250
million years ago were later killed off by the meteorite-linked extinction at the end of the dinosaur age 65 million
years ago.
Arctic war escalates and goes nuclear- miscalc is likely.

Wallace and Staples 10 Michael Wallace is Professor Emeritus at the
University of British Columbia; Steven Staples is President of the Rideau Institute in
Ottawa, March 2010, Ridding the Arctic of Nuclear Weapons A Task Long Overdue,
http://www.arcticsecurity.org/docs/arctic-nuclear-report-web.pdf
The fact is, the Arctic is becoming a zone of increased military competition.
Russian President Medvedev has announced the creation of a special military force to defend Arctic claims. Last year Russian General Vladimir Shamanov
declared that Russian troops would step up training for Arctic combat, and that Russias submarine fleet would increase its operational radius. Recently,
two Russian attack submarines were spotted off the U.S. east coast for the first time in 15 years. In January 2009, on the eve of Obamas inauguration,
President Bush issued a National Security Presidential Directive on Arctic Regional Policy. It affirmed as a priority the preservation of U.S. military vessel and
aircraft mobility and transit throughout the Arctic, including the Northwest Passage, and foresaw greater capabilities to protect U.S. borders in the Arctic.
The Bush administrations disastrous eight years in office, particularly its

decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty and deploy missile defence
interceptors and a radar station in Eastern Europe, have greatly
contributed to the instability we are seeing today, even though the Obama administration has scaled back the planned
deployments. The Arctic has figured in this renewed interest in Cold War weapons systems, particularly the upgrading of the Thule Ballistic Missile Early
Warning System radar in Northern Greenland for ballistic missile defence. The Canadian government, as well, has put forward new military capabilities to
protect Canadian sovereignty claims in the Arctic, including proposed ice-capable ships, a northern military training base and a deep-water port. Earlier this
year Denmark released an all-party defence position paper that suggests the country should create a dedicated Arctic military contingent that draws on
army, navy and air force assets with shipbased helicopters able to drop troops anywhere. Danish fighter planes would be tasked to patrol Greenlandic
airspace. Last year Norway chose to buy 48 Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, partly because of their suitability for Arctic patrols. In March, that country
held a major Arctic military practice involving 7,000 soldiers from 13 countries in which a fictional country called Northland seized offshore oil rigs. The
manoeuvres prompted a protest from Russia which objected again in June after Sweden held its largest northern military exercise since the end of the
Second World War. About 12,000 troops, 50 aircraft and several warships were involved. Jayantha Dhanapala, President of Pugwash and former UN under-
From those in the international peace and

security sector, deep concerns are being expressed over the fact that two
nuclear weapon states the United States and the Russian Federation, which together own
95 per cent of the nuclear weapons in the world converge on the Arctic
secretary for disarmament affairs, summarized the situation bluntly:

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and have competing claims. These claims, together with those of other
allied NATO countries Canada, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway could, if unresolved, lead to
conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons . Many will no doubt argue
that this is excessively alarmist, but no circumstance in which nuclear powers find themselves
in military confrontation can be taken lightly. The current geo-political threat level is nebulous and low for
now, according to Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary, [ the] issue is the uncertainty as Arctic states
and non-Arctic states begin to recognize the geo-political/economic
significance of the Arctic because of climate change.

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SD Impact Exoplanets/LHC
Science diplomacy is critical to the Large Hadron Collider.
World STEM Works 13 (organization encouraging global scientific
developments and inter-governmental civil science, cites Royal Society and AAAS,
Science Diplomacy, http://worldstemworks.org/about-us/what-is-sciencediplomacy/, Accessed 8/8/13, Keerthi)
The British Royal Society and the American Association for the Advancement of
Science describe three major facets of science diplomacy in a 2010 journal focused on providing a
concise definition for the term science diplomacy. Science in diplomacy, science for diplomacy, and diplomacy for science are the
three pillars that provide a basis for science diplomacy. Science in diplomacy entails science informing and advising foreign policy,
Science for diplomacy is

the notion that science can be used as a diplomatic tool, through the
notion of soft power, to shape international dialogs and to create more
channels of communication between communities. Finally, diplomacy for science
consists of efforts to involve international actors in the pursuit of science;
notably, diplomacy for science shines through in the efforts of CERN, ITER,
and SESAME. Each of these three aspects form a core about which the
philosophies of science diplomacy spring. Perhaps most importantly is the
maintenance of the philosophies in each word of the term . Science attempts to unravel
ultimately providing a more unimpeachable body of support for any given objective.
the mysteries of the universe through reasoned approach, rigorous testing, and communal review and understanding. Diplomacy
seeks to bridge the gaps between the worlds communities, employing the pursuit of tolerance and understanding with the ultimate
goal of resolving common differences. Science diplomacy primarily seeks to bring these two concepts together so that each individual
aspect of their doctrines can enhance the others, and the execution of science diplomacy should never violate each of these
principles. However, science diplomacy is more than just its constituent parts. The parts each complement each other as to bring out
something even greater from the whole. Science diplomacys ultimate goal is the application of reason and dialog to problems that
the Large
Hadron Collider is a massive structure built as part of a collaborative effort
by 20 countries and millions of people. In and of itself, the LHC consists of
multiple smaller colliders, each linked together. And yet, this massive piece of equipment is
designed to explore only the tiniest realm known to man. The discoveries made there apply to each
and every human being and will bring changes so drastic that we are currently unable to
predict what they will be. The discoveries made at the LHC are only possible through
science diplomacy (most specifically through diplomacy for science), and the changes and
advancements wrought by it will provide not only a shining example of
human achievement in science, but also in collaboration and diplomacy.
intimately involve individuals yet present themselves as mountains only scalable by the collective. For instance,
Neither science nor diplomacy alone could achieve such feats as providing credible evidence to the existence of the Higgs Boson (the
so called God particle). Together, science and diplomacy have enabled the human race to delve deeply into the nature of the world
around us, to reach across borders and nationalities, and perhaps most importantly to delve deeply into ourselves. Through science
diplomacy, we can overcome any obstacle, bridge any chasm, and solve any problem. Through science diplomacy, we can take the
next step forward in our own betterment. Through science diplomacy, we can truly make a difference.
LHC is key to measure the effectiveness and utilization of dark

energy- timeframe is 2014. And, dark energy exists and is
abundant- research proves.
The Daily Galaxy 13 (August 1, CERN's 'LHC' New Mission to Probe Mystery of
Dark Energy, http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2013/08/cerns-lhc-future-toprobe-dark-energy-and-supersymmetry.html, Keerthi, Accessed 9/20/13)

And when CERN's LHC experiments resume in 2015, scientists at the European Organisation for Nuclear Research
(CERN) will use its enhanced power to probe dark matter, dark energy and
supersymmetry -- ideas considered as wild as the Higgs Boson was , half a century
ago. As engineers focus on the current technical upgrade mission, physicists are sifting through the mountains of
data that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has churned out since 2010. "The things that are easy to spot have already been exploited,

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now we're taking another look," said Tiziano Camporesi of CERN, noting wryly that dealing with the unknown was, well, unknowable. We
he LHC's particle collisions
transform energy into mass, the goal being to find fundamental particles in
the sub-atomic debris that help us to understand the Universe . At peak capacity, the "old"
LHC managed a mind-boggling 550 million collisions per second. CERN's
supercomputers are programmed to identify within microseconds the
collisions worth more analysis -- chunks of a few hundred per second -- before thousands of
physicists from across the globe comb the results to advance our
knowledge of matter. "We want to understand how that behaves, why it sticks itself together into tiny things that we
call atoms and nuclei at really small scales, into things that we call people and chairs and buildings at bigger scales, and then planets and solar
systems, galaxies at larger scales," said CERN's James Gillies. The Standard Model is a trusty conceptual
vehicle but it still lacks an explanation for gravity, nor does it account for dark matter and dark energy, which comprise most of
the cosmos and whose existence is inferred from their impact on ordinary matter. "Nothing in cosmology makes sense
without dark matter," says Michael Turner a theoretical cosmologist who coined the term " dark energy " and co-author of The Early Universe, the standard
textbook on particle physics and cosmology. "We needed it to form galaxies, stars and other
structures in the Universe. And so it's absolutely central to cosmology. We also know that none of the
and
always say that astronomers have an easier task, because they can actually see what they're looking for!" T
particles known to exist can be the dark matter particle. So it has to be a new particle of nature. Remarkably, our most conservative hypothesis right now is that the dark matter is a new
the evidence
for it comes from many different measurements: the amount of deuterium produced in the big bang, the cosmic
form of matter out there to be discovered and to teach us about particle physics." "Dark matter is absolutely central to cosmology, said Turner, "and
microwave background, the formation of structure in the Universe, galaxy rotation curves, gravitational lensing, and on and on." "There is five times more dark matter than ordinary
matter, and its existence allows us to understand the history of the universe beginning from a formless particle soup until where we are today," added Turner. "If you said, 'You no longer
CERN physicists champion

supersymmetry, the notion that there are novel particles which mirror each known particle. "We have a theory that describes all the
stuff around us, all the ordinary, visible matter that makes up the Universe.
have dark matter,' our current cosmological model would collapse. We would be back to square one." Meanwhile, some
Except, the problem is, it doesn't. It makes up around five percent of the Universe," said Gillies.
Mapping dark energy is THE key internal link to warp travelhard data proves.
Heather Catchpole, Science Editor of Cosmos Magazine, 8-18-08, Dark energy spacecraft could fly faster
than light, Cosmos Magazine. (http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/2141/dark-energy-spacecraft-could-fly-fasterlight?page=0%2C0)
A futuristic engine that uses dark energy to propel a spaceship faster than
light is theoretically possible, and could revolutionise space travel, U.S. scientists say.
Full speed ahead: Warp field according to the Alcubierre drive. Image shows the opposing regions of expanding
and contracting spacetime that propel the central region. Credit: Wikimedia SYDNEY: A futuristic engine that uses dark energy to
propel a spaceship faster than light is theoretically possible, and could revolutionise space travel, U.S. scientists say.
idea, backed up by calculations

both of Baylor University in Waco, Texas,
The
made by physicist Gerald Cleaver and graduate student Richard Orbousy,
was published online on the arXiv.org physics website. Not as
unlikely as it seems Like something from the world of Star Trek, their theory says that a spacecraft
could travel at warp speed in a bubble of space-time by manipulating
dark energy, the mysterious invisible force accelerating the expansion of
the universe (see, More evidence for dark energys repulsive power, Cosmos Online). The spacecraft would
essentially remain in the same place, they said, while space-time ahead of the
spaceship shrank, and expanded again behind it. The warp engine is based
on the Alcubierre warp drive, a mathematical model of a method of stretching space in a
wave that was first proposed by Mexican physicist Miguel Alcubierre in 1994. Think of it like a surfer riding
a wave, said Cleaver. The ship would be pushed by the spatial bubble and the bubble would be travelling faster than the
speed of light. The concept is based on new predictions emerging from string theory (a branch of theoretical physics which states
that reality is based on one-dimensional objects called strings). String theorists believe space has not three or four but 10
dimensions: height, width, length, time and others that are unknown (see, A way to see extra dimensions, Cosmos Online).

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Exo-planets are easy to find and are abundant- A LOT of data

proves.
Scharf 12 (Caleb A., Director of Columbia University's multidisciplinary Astrobiology Center. January 20, An
Abundance of Exoplanets Changes our Universe, http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/life-unbounded/2012/01/20/anabundance-of-exoplanets-changes-our-universe/, Keerthi, Accessed 9/20/13)
Planets in habitable zones, planets orbiting twin suns, miniature solar systems, rogue planets, planets,
planets, planets. If there is one single piece of information you should take
away from the recent flood of incredible exoplanetary discoveries it is this: Our
universe makes planets with extraordinary efficiency if planets can form
somewhere, they will. Weve been sidling up on this fact for some time now, but its still a remarkable thing to acknowledge. Ten to fifteen years ago, as
the first exoplanet detections began to come in, we understood that what we were seeing was potentially just the tip of the iceberg. These were massive
objects (Jupiter sized or greater) and most of them were orbiting much closer to their parent stars than any equivalent giant planet in our solar system
Statistics improved, as did our understanding of

how detection techniques were biased towards finding these types of
planets (owing to their greater gravitational influence on their parent stars), and estimates were made that suggested only a few percent of normal
hence the hot Jupiter moniker that is still used today.
stars harbored such worlds. Plot of exoplanet mass estimates versus year of discovery (generated from the online Extrasolar Planets Encyclopedia,
thanks to Jean Schneider). The object shown in 1989 is known as HD 114762b, and is open to some debate in terms of actual discovery date and planetary
classification as it may in fact be over 100 times the mass of Jupiter, nonethless it exists in this online compilation of exoplanetary data. Of course
time went by and astronomical instruments were refined, more and more
data was accumulated, and longer orbital period planets and less massive
planets were discovered. The figure to the left here illustrates the evolving range of planetary masses (or lower limits to planet
masses) as a property of the year of discovery for confirmed exoplanets (excluding the thousands of to-be-confirmed-candidates from NASAs Kepler
mission). Here in 2012 were dipping well and truly into Earth-sized planetary terrain (about 0.003 times the mass of Jupiter on this scale). By 2010
Neptune-sized objects on large orbits

were at least 3 times more common that Jupiter-sized planets at similar distances from their
gravitational microlensing searches for planets were indicating that
parent stars. And hot on the heels of these measurements new Doppler, or wobble, detections of exoplanets indicated that at least 1-in-4 normal stars
should harbor Earth-sized planets within about a quarter of the distance of the Earth from the Sun (0.25 AU). It was becoming increasingly apparent that
planets might be plentiful. Entering 2011 then the first big results from NASAs Kepler mission
began to make waves. With these came the statistical inference that the most numerous
types of planets orbiting within 1/2 an Earth-Sun distance (0.5 AU) were Neptune-sized worlds,
clocking in with a frequency of occurrence of about 17% (i.e. around 1 in every 6 stars). Close behind came Earth-sized objects, in about 6% of all systems.
it was clear that there

might be millions of Earth-sized worlds in the habitable zones of their
stellar parents, across the galaxy. But things were just starting to warm up. The next item was another statistical
inference from gravitational microlensing surveys, that now indicated a very substantial
population of rogue planets giant worlds perhaps ejected from their stellar nests by strong gravitational
With a little extrapolation, and assuming a total of 200 billion normal stars in the Milky Way galaxy,
interactions with other planetary chicks. The conclusion was that free-floating, wandering, objects as large, or larger than Jupiter,
outnumbered stars in our galaxy by almost 2 to 1. Its a remarkable result, but what about planets very much in the
grasp of their parent stars, the equivalent of our own solar system? Recently a new microlensing analysis by Cassan et al.
appeared in Nature that explicitly targets planets orbiting between about 0.5 and 10 AU from their parent stars. The results solidify and
carry forward all the measurements from before. About 17% of stars (give or take
several percent) harbor Jupiter mass planets, cool Neptunes exist around about 52% of stars and Super-Earths (5 to 10
times the mass of Earth) exist around roughly 62% of stars . Even with sizable errors in these estimates (as much as 2030%) the numbers are astonishing there are at least 1.6 planets orbiting from 0.5 to 10 AU for every star in the galaxy. Combine this with the Doppler
survey numbers (25% of stars with Earth-sized planets within 0.25 AU), the Kepler numbers (17% of stars with Neptunes orbiting within 0.5AU), and the
microlensing estimates of 2 rogue giant planets per star in the galaxy and you have, well you have an awful lot of planets.
Faster-than-light travel is possible and coming in the next two

decades Identifying livable exo-planets is key to escape global
catastrophes and prevent extinction.
Dick Pelletier, freelance space-science analyst, 8-29-08, New hyperspace engine could roundtrip Mars in 5
hours, The Energy Roadmap. (http://www.theenergyroadmap.com/futureblogger/show/835-new-hyperspace-enginecould-roundtrip-mars-in-5-hours#fold)
physicists, encouraged by recent interest in the work of German scientist Burkhard

believe his hyperspace propulsion idea could become a proven concept
over the next two decades . Heims theory adds two forces to Einsteins four-dimensional space-
This scenario may sound like fantasy, but

Heim,

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a repulsive anti-gravity force similar to dark energy that appears to expand the universe; the
other force would accelerate spacecraft without using any fuel . If the Heim idea
works, it will radically change space travel . Forget spending six months or more crammed in a rocket on
the way to Mars, a round trip on the hyperdrive could take as little as five hours.
Worries about astronauts muscles wasting away will disappear. Whats more , the device will put travel to
time: one,
the stars within reach for the first time. The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
awards prizes for the best papers presented each year. Last years winner went to a paper authored by physicist Jochem Hauser,
calling for experimental tests of Heims theory. This
hyperdrive motor, Hauser said, would propel a

craft through another dimension at enormous speeds. It could reach a star
eleven light years away in just eighty days. The US government believes this theory could become
reality; researcher Roger Lenard at Department of Energys Sandia National Laboratories says he can test the idea with their Z
machine, which can generate the necessary field intensities and gradients. NASA and the Department of Defense are also expressing
interest in hyperspace engines. Many forward thinkers believe
our future lies in space. Our job is to
help life spread from this planet and make the rest of the universe as
beautiful and varied as Earth , said legendary physicist Freeman Dyson. Dead worlds may be beautiful, just
as deserts may be beautiful, but worlds full of life will give birth to a far wider range of beauty. Princetons J. Richard Gott III
believes
space colonization is necessary to prevent our species from becoming
extinct. Although Homo sapiens have been around for 200,000 years, there is no guarantee of survival if we remain only on
Earth. Colonies in space would provide insurance against catastrophes that
could obliterate life on a single planet.

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SD Impact Exoplanets Science Support

The Science checks out Warp travel is possible and makes the
creation of wormholes possible.
Breeden 12 (John Breeden II, cites NASA and physicist Miguel Alcubierre, Dec. 5
2012, NASA thinks warp-drive travel might be possible,

http://gcn.com/blogs/emerging-tech/2012/12/nasa-thinks-warp-drive-travel-might-bepossible.aspx, Keerthi, Accessed 9/20/13)
Last year I got a bit excited about a report that the light speed barrier had been seemingly broken by scientists working with the
Large Hadron Collider. Dreams of building a Millennium Falcon and traveling to the stars, the goal of space nerds everywhere, seemed
Einstein's light speed barrier, the chain that keeps us anchored to Earth, could be
broken, or so it seemed. But then, the European Organization for Nuclear Research discovered problems with their experiment
that meant that neutrinos probably didn't break the speed of light. Suddenly, we were Earth-bound again. However, NASA
plausible.
isn't giving up on faster-than-light travel just yet. While admitting that its mostly speculation at this
point, NASA believes that one day faster-than-light travel through the use of warp
drives might be possible. For those non-nerds among us, this is more the "Star Trek" version of space travel than
the "Star Wars" one, though they are similar. According to NASA scientists, it might be
possible to break the laws of special relativity with a ship shaped like a
sphere that could be placed between two regions of space-time, with one
expanding and one contracting. This requires matter with special properties and could break Einstein's law
because the ship isn't actually moving faster than light; space itself is being moved, and the ship is
simply falling through the hole called a wormhole it created . That
much had been worked out as early as 1994 by physicist Miguel Alcubierre. However, in
addition to the special matter, his plan also required energy equivalent to the mass-energy of the planet Jupiter. But NASA thinks it
might not need a planet-sized ship after all. NASA physicist Harold White recently presented a paper showing that by simply tweaking
the geography of the Alcubierre warp drive, it could achieve the same results in a ship about the size of NASA's Voyager 1 probe.
White is pushing out of the realm of the theoretical too, vowing to use lasers in his lab to demonstrate how the modified drive could in
the dream
of space travel is alive once again. While some folks might be thinking of booking flights to AlphaCentauri, I think I'll
fact perturb space-time by one part in 10 million. We may not be firing up the Falcon anytime soon, but at least
beat the rush and buy a ticket to the planet GJ 667c. With three visible suns, possibly lots of water and an untapped real estate
market, it looks like a nice place for a vacation home.

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Technology Leadership I/L

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2AC extension
US failure in STEM collapses overall technological
leadership. Potential adversaries are developing better
tech and deterrence capabilities. Tech superiority is the
basis for our military superiority and domestic economic
and manufacturing base. Research is what makes this all
happen its key to national security and resolves all
existential threats by creating globalization and
diplomatic capabiltiy thats Hummell 2k12. He has a
Ph.D. and is fellow at the Potamac Institute.
Independently, locking in tech leadership reduces conflict
tech transfer allows steady diffusion of cultural and
military influence rather than one-shot actions that
prevents power gaps and conflict solves transition wars
with rogue regimes.

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Plan Key
And, the plan is a long-term engagement strategy that provides
a platform for S&T leadership and U.S. Science Diplomacyk
Dolan 2k12 (Bridget M. Dolan, Science and Technology Agreements as
Tools for Science Diplomacy: A U.S. Case Study, Science & Diplomacy, Vol. 1,
No. 4 (December 2012), pg online @
http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/files/science_and_technology_agreements_a
s_tools_for_science_diplomacy_science__diplomacy.pdf)
As this paper has elaborated, U.S. decisions to enter into S&T agreements are often
motivated by the desire to transform a diplomatic relationship, promote public
diplomacy, enhance a diplomatic visit, and/or advance U.S. national security. An S&T agreement can
be a limited one-time deliverable or it can be a launching pad for
extensive engagement . While the discussions above have focused on drivers for S&T agreements from
the U.S. perspective,
for these agreements to be effective tools of science
diplomacy, implementation matters.
In the last decade, the number of S&T agreements
involving the United States has doubled. At the same time
allocation of U.S. federal resources
to designated international programs that support engagement in science

and technology has not kept pace .11 Some science diplomacy practitioners
and academics in the U nited S tates and abroad are concerned that an
S&T agreement with the U nited S tates, while once considered an
important tool, is no longer taken seriously .12 As these types of formal intergovernmental
agreements continue to expand, however
, the long-term benefit to official and
nongovernmental relations between countries depends upon the ability to

foster substantial scientific cooperation . It is essential that these
agreements and science diplomacy
resources are
more generallywhile cognizant of the realities of limited
ambitious enough to foster meaningful international
partnerships .

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Nanotechnology Leadership I/L

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US Leadership Key
US nanotech leadership ensures international regulation,
resulting in controlled military nanotech
Vandermolen 2k6 (LCDR Thomas D. Vandermolen, USN (BS, Louisiana Tech University; MA, Naval War
College), is officer in charge, Maritime Science and Technology Center, Yokosuka, Japan. He was previously assigned
as a student at the Naval War College, Newport Naval Station, Rhode Island. He has also served as intelligence
officer for Carrier Wing Five, Naval Air Facility, Atsugi, Japan, and in similar assignments with US Special Operations
Command, US Forces Korea, and Sea Control Squadron THIRTY-FIVE, Air & Space Power Jounral, Molecular
nanotechnology and national security, pg online @
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj06/fal06/vandermolen.html //um-ef)
NANOTECHNOLOGY (MNT), when fully developed, will provide the

basis for the next technological revolution , possibly the most beneficial and yet most
disruptive in human history. By allowing inexpensive mass production with atomic-level
precision, this infant technology has the potential to create whole new
MOLECULAR
classes of weapons and economic, political, and social disruptions

serious enough to threaten international security . To minimize the
threats while maximizing the benefits of MNTs impending
development, the U nited S tates should take the lead in creating a
cooperative strategy of international regulation
and do so
as soon as
possible. MNTs arrival will cause an avalanche of problems and

threats, many of which the human race has not yet encountered; the
control strategy must therefore be ready before that day arrives .
US NT leadership solves nanotech mistakes and inter-state

nanotech conflictssolves extinction.
Navrozov 04 (Lev Navrozov, Special to World Tribune, Winner of the Albert
Einstein Prize for Outstanding Intellectual Achievements, The Center for Responsible
Nanotechnology Plans Ahead,
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2004/lev2_06.html)
Similarly, two countries can develop molecular nano assemblers: the United States
and China. The latter launched in 1986 Project 863, a Manhattan Project for the
development of post-nuclear superweapons in seven fields, and, at the close of the
20th century and beginning of the 21st, molecular nano technology became the
eighth field.
The United States has not launched a Manhattan Project for the
development of any post-nuclear superweapons, and certainly not, of molecular
nanoweapons. In 1969 President Nixon announced the U.S. termination of development of post-nuclear weapons, and it has
been terminated, according to my research, not my benevolence. Just as Lloyd George in England up to 1939 dreamed aloud about
having a statesman as great as Hitler at the head of the British government, the Western political establishment has been in love with
United States has no need for molecular nano

assemblers and the defense against them. In 1939 Hitler made a fatal mistake: he grabbed the
the dictatorship of China. So, the
rump of Czechoslovakia, and the democratic West woke up. Imagine the dictatorship of China suddenly invading Mexico! But the
Chinese strategists regard such a war as purely Western and old-fashioned (see Unrestricted Warfare). In a modern war (which,
ironically, the United States initiated by using nuclear weapons against Japan in 1945), a geostrategist confronts the enemy with
we
believe that the only responsible molecular nanotechnology is for the U.S.
government to launch a nanotech Manhattan Project on the basis of the Foresight Institute, with Eric Drexler, the founder of
annihilation or unconditional surrender. Let us now look at the article Responsible Nanotechnology. At the CSWD, Inc.,
nanotechnology, at the head of the Project. Incidentally, the Advisory Board of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology consists of
distinguished, gifted individuals who might become the core of the nanotech Manhattan Project. Great was my shock when I had

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read the article posted by or on behalf of CRN. Here are its eight scenarios of the future of mankind (which the article presents out
Molecular manufacturing develops quickly

enough, but mankind lives happily ever after. But what about the
possibility of a molecular nano attack, launched by the dictatorship of China on the West? What? Don't
of numerical sequence): Scenario 6.
you know that China is as peaceful as the democratic West thought Germany was peaceful in 1938? Scenario 5. The same as
The leading
world powers take a close look at the first three scenarios we've described
[the article describes 4 after 6 and 5], decide to avoid them at all costs, and agree to work
together to avoid geopolitical meltdown. We at CRN believe that sovereign nations
ultimately may cooperate in this way, since the alternatives appear to
suck! Again, China is no problem even if China gets molecular manufacturing capability first. Surely China will not annihilate
the West even in this case, but will work together. What about the United States? Even [!] if the United States
gets molecular manufacturing capability first, and certain elements inside the government intend
to oppress the rest of the world with it, we can hope that other powerful entities in the U.S.
will be more sensible and influential. The above suggests that the form of government in the United
Scenario 6 but molecular manufacturing technology develops slowly, which is even better. Scenario 4.
States is much more dangerous for the world than that in China, the largest dictatorship in world history. Inside the U.S. government
certain elements may intend to oppress the rest of the world. Not inside the government of China, which presumably consists
of American liberal Democrats and peaceniks only. Scenario 3. Two or more competent nations develop molecular manufacturing
capability at about the same time. Fearing the potential military advantage this could provide for their adversary, they each begin
rapid and massive development of hideously powerful new weaponry. The resulting arms race is almost certain to be highly unstable,
for several reasons. This scenario can be considered an existential risk for the human race. Can you imagine the dictators of China,
hearing of existential risk for the human race? They will develop a severe depression, and the American doctors talking depression
on TV will have to treat them. Scenario 2 A major Asian nation achieves robust molecular nanotechnology manufacturing ahead of
anyone else, and as a result the U.S. becomes something of a backwater. As I was reading this, I could imagine only China in this
role. I guessed right! But never mind, for China (if it's them) could turn increasingly open/democratic as they continue to develop
economically and scientifically... isn't it? Of course! Remember how increasingly open/democratic Germany turned as it
developed economically and scientifically after 1933? If one knows nothing about a foreign country, he or she can well daydream
about its being open/democratic. Remember how President Roosevelt's spouse and his ambassador in Moscow admired and extolled
The United States of America is the first to

develop molecular technology manufacturing, and as a result can rule the
world. Surely this is better than the nano annihilation.
openness and democracy in Stalin's Russia? Scenario 1.

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LNG Aff Blocks

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Current Liabilities Of 759B Yuan ($124B) International Business Times;

Steel companies current difficulties are due to the slumping of

The plan would just maintain the steel industry at its

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Currently, however, the efficiency of the U.S.-flag fleet

Just one inch of lost capacity results in a loss of 50 to

Impact is inevitable and non-uq---Obama is pushing for

the budget would create new bonds to finance

Militarization Turn--Chinese steel industry would be used for military means

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Given the importance of steel to U.S. national security, it is

Military improvements make war over Taiwan and general

Chinas emerging maritime anti-access force can be

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Any US-China war goes nuclear (lol causes extinction

The risk of a nuclear war with China lies in

There are several

The combination of these factors

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Case turns and outweighs the DAEngland 11 indicates

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A2: Chinese Economic Collapse

it will be a hard decade for China as it will confront the

The deadly trio that is growing public protests against a communist

2012 may be Year of the Dragon,

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A2: CCP Collapse

The installation of a new leadership

Dictatorships are regarded as

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A2 LNG Russia Relations Turn

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lucrative space for Qatar to occupy. The nub of

Russias energy sector will inevitable declineno

Oil, gas, base minerals, diamonds,

Russia's western Siberian fields60% of the country's current

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a declining Soviet legacy. Offsetting this with new fields in areas

Multiple thumpers--A) Magnitsky Act and human rights sanctions thump

Diplomatic relations between Washington and Moscow have chilled

there are a lot of tensions, in particular

the differences have been more nuanced than many people

The problem is not so much Russian policy or U.S

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what the outcome will be and whether minorities will be protected if

really knows how outsiders can play

my paper urged Russians despite the aggressive

the battered state of US-Russian relations, and my own

Their anxiety was based on shared knowledge of

There are other broken

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A2 LNG Russia Economy Turn

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lucrative space for Qatar to occupy. The nub of

Russias energy sectors will inevitable declineno

Oil, gas, base minerals, diamonds,

Russia's western Siberian fields60% of the country's current

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Use FEMA Turns as Net Benefit