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The World Pump Market 2006-2011

Volume I
October 2006

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

Contents - Volume I - Page 1

INTRODUCTION

II GLOBAL ISSUES

II 1

Pump Market Summary

II 1

Pump Market Size by World Region and End Use (table)

II 2

Pump Market Size in General Industry and by Product Type (table)

II 3

The Market for Complete Pumps in 63 Countries

II 4

Pump Market in West Europe

II 5

Pump Market in East Europe

II 6

Pump Market in Africa & Middle East

II 7

Pump Market in Asia

II 8

Pump Market in America

II 9

Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment

II 10

World Trade Growth and Oil Prices (charts)

II 11

Forecast of GDP Growth

II 12

GDP Growth by World Region (table)

II 13

GDP Growth by Country in West Europe (table)

II 14

GDP Growth by Country in East Europe (table)

II 15

GDP Growth by Country in Africa & Middle East (table)

II 16

GDP Growth by Country in Asia (table)

II 17

GDP Growth by Country in America (table)

II 18

Contents - Volume I - Page 2

Investment and the Pump Market

II 19

Forecast Investment Growth Rates by World Region

II 20

World Investment Trends in Industrial and Other Countries

II 21

Investment Trends by End Use Industry

II 22

Oil, Gas, Refining

II 23

World Oil Production and Investment

II 24

World Oil Production (chart), Some Recent Trends in Oil & Gas Capital Expenditure

II 25

Capital Investment in Oil Refining (charts)

II 26

World LNG Production

II 27

World LNG Production and LNG Capital Costs (charts)

II 28

Oil Refining Investment (chart)

II 29

Chemicals

II 30

Capital Investment in Chemicals - Industrial & Other Countries (charts)

II 31

Capital Investment in Chemicals by Major Companies

II 32

Power Generation

II 33

Capital Investment in Power Generation - Industrial & Other Countries (charts)

II 34

Water & Sewerage

II 35

Capital Investment in Water & Sewerage - Industrial & Other Countries (charts)

II 36

General Industry

II 37

Capital Investment in General Industry - Industrial & Other Countries (charts)

II 38

Investment Summary by End Use Industry

II 39

Capital Investment by World Region (table)

II 40

Capital Investment in Plant & Equipment by End Use (table)

II 41

Contents - Volume I - Page 3

Pump Markets in the World's Largest Countries

II 42

Some Key Issues (table), Complete Pump Market Trends in West Europe (chart)

II 43

Complete Pump Market Trends for USA (chart), and Russia (chart)

II 44

Complete Pump Market Trends for China

II 45

Complete Pump Market Trends for India

II 46

Pump Export/Import Summary

II 47

China as a Supplier: Complete Pumps, Pump Parts, Significance of China as a Supplier

II 48

Imports of Complete Pumps by 63 countries 2002-2005, Ranked by China's share in 2005

II 49

Imports of Pump Parts by 63 countries 2002-2005, Ranked by China's share in 2005

II 50

Pump Exports by Suppliers not Identified in Detail

II 51

Pump Exports by Destination (charts),


supplied by Switzerland, Russia, Poland, Norway, Czech Republic

II 52

Pump Exports by Destination (charts),


supplied by Korea-South, Taiwan, Hong Kong,, India

II 53

Pump Exports by Destination (charts),


supplied by Canada, Mexico, Brazil

II 54

Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts

II 55-57

Pump Market Size - USA, Europump Countries and Japan Compared

II 58

Complete Pump Market Size: USA and Japan Compared (table)

II 58

Pump Production and Market Size: Europump Member Countries and USA

II 59

Europump Members and USA: Production and EIF estimates of market size (table)

II 60

Contents - Volume I - Page 4

III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE


Introduction

III 1

Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region and Product Type

III 2

The World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type (chart)

III 3

The Market for Pump Parts

III 4

Imports of Pump Parts - Rankings by 63 Countries (table)

III 5

Centrifugal Pumps

III 6

Centrifugal Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts)

III 7

Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table)

III 8

Reciprocating Pumps

III 9

Reciprocating Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts)

III 10

Reciprocating Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table)

III 11

Rotary Pumps

III 12

Rotary Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts)

III 13

Rotary Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table)

III 14

Measuring & Dispensing Pumps

III 15

Measuring & Dispensing Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts)

III 16

Measuring & Dispensing Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table)

III 17

Domestic & Other Pumps

III 18

Domestic & Other Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts)

III 19

Domestic & Other Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table)

III 20

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 5

IV

THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Introduction

IV 1

Summary of Pump Market Size by end Use Industry

IV 2

The World Pump Market by End Use Industry (table)

IV 3

Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry

IV 4- IV 10

Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps

V 11

Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps (chart)

IV 12

Market Sizes for Standard Pumps (chart)

IV 13

Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps (chart)

IV 14

Oil & Gas Production & Refining

IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries

IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries (table)

IV 16

Oil and Gas Production - market size (chart)

IV 17

Oil and Gas Production - market change 2006-2011 (chart)

IV 18

Onshore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table)

IV 19

Offhore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table)

IV 20

Oil Refining - market size (chart)

IV 21

Oil Refining - market change 2006-2011 (chart)

IV 22

Oil Refining - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 23

Chemical Industry

IV 24

Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries (table)

IV 25-IV 26

Basic Chemicals - market size (chart)

IV 27

Basic Chemicals - market change 2006-2011 (chart)

IV 28

Basic Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 29

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 6

IV

THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Other Chemicals - market size (chart)

IV 30

Other Chemicals - market change 2006-2011 (chart)

IV 31

Other Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 32

Power Generation
Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries (table)

IV 33
IV 33-IV 34

Power Generation - market size (chart)

IV 35

Power Generation - market change 2006-2011 (chart)

IV 36

Coal/Oil Fired Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 37

Gas Turbine/Combined Cycle Power Generation


- Requirements by Application (table)

IV 38

Nuclear Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 39

Hydroelectric Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 40

Water & Sewerage

Water & Sewerage - Ranking by 63 Countries (table)

IV 41

IV 42-IV 43

Water & Sewerage - market size (chart)

IV 44

Water & Sewerage - market change 2006-2011 (chart)

IV 45

Water & Sewerage - Requirements by World Region (table)

IV 46

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 7

IV

THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

General Industry

IV 47

General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries (table)

IV 48 - IV 49

Mineral Mining & Processing (charts on market size & growth)

IV 50 - IV 52

Pulp & Paper (charts on market size & growth)

IV 53 - IV 55

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals (charts on market size & growth)

IV 56 - IV 58

Metal Manufacturing (charts on market size & growth)

IV 59 - IV 61

Marine (charts on market size & growth)

IV 62 - IV 64

Construction Related and Other Industries

IV 65

Building Services (charts on size & growth)

IV 65 - IV 66

Construction Dewatering (charts on size & growth)

IV 67 - IV 68

Domestic Pumps (charts on size & growth)

IV 69 - IV 70

Construction Related & Other Industries by World Region (table)

IV 71 - IV 73

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 1

INTRODUCTION

The entire report consists of two separately-bound volumes which


together contain the following sections:

Volume 1 - Overview

Covers macro-economic developments, the pump market by country,


market by pump type, market by world region and end use industry

Introduction

II

Global Issues

III

The Market by Product Type

IV

The Market by End Use

Volume 2 - Detailed Results by Country

Analysis by Country - market forecasts for 63 countries


Appendix on Methodolgy

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 2

Coverage of the Report

The report has the following coverage:

Covers 4.8 billion of the 6.5 billion world population

63 countries with the highest GDP are separately identified

90% of world GDP, 85% of the world pump market

Pump market coverage for most end uses is around 85%


of the world market but:
- Mineral mining/processing: around 75%
- Water & sewerage: around 80%

What is provided:
- Forecasts 2006-2011: complete pump market
- Historial data 2002-2005: imports of complete pumps and
pump parts

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 3

Status of Annual Data Provided in the Report

Although annual results are provided, the purpose is to show structural


change by end use industry, country and world region. The annual figures are
intended to capture the shape of the trade cycle, but they should not be
regarded as a reliable short-term forecast for 2006/7. This is because actual
data ends in 2005 and is subject to revision. Figures for the current year
(2006) are estimated and, from past experience, are subject to significant
revision. Moreover it is not possible to take account of specific short-term
developments affecting each end use in the individual countries.

Revisions to Historical Data

We have carried out revisions to historical market size for many developing
countries, based on a revised analysis of pump imports. Market size has been
increased significantly for a number of countries, notably affecting results for
China, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia. Another new feature of this year's
report is the full inclusion of China as a pump supplier, showing imports of
complete pumps and pump parts by each of the 63 identified countries.

Attribution and Copyright

This report was prepared by European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (EIF). EIF
retains all copyright in the report, which may not be copied, in whole or in
part, or distributed to any organisation, person or company other than the
subscriber.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 1

II

GLOBAL ISSUES

PUMP MARKET SUMMARY

Forecasts for the pump market provided in this report are conditional on
macro-economic assumptions and

trends in investment. Given these

assumptions, pump market forecasts are arrived at by regression equations


linking historical data on the pump market with historical data on investment
in plant and equipment by end use industry.

This section starts by summarising the pump market forecasts and then
continues by providing the macro-economic forecasts and some of the trends
in investment by end use industry which helped to determine the pump
market forecasts.

Market size in 2006 is shown on Page II 2. The main difference from last
year's report is a large increase for China and Latin America. Growth rates
are generally slower than in last year's report, as a result of the impact of
high oil prices on demand, although faster growth is expected in oil-rich
areas such as Russia and the Middle East. The Chinese market is expected to
fall from the very high level of 2006.

Please note: all pump market estimates relate to complete pumps, including
drivers, excluding parts.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 2

World Pump Market by Region


complete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
$ million 2006
(2003 prices)

Volume growth
% p.a. 2006-2011

West Europe

5241

2.2

Russia

389

6.5

Other East Europe

406

5.6

Africa

486

4.0

Middle East

1188

6.7

China

2850

-4.6

India

603

7.9

Japan

2981

1.4

Pacific Rim *

1267

4.1

Other Asia (inc. Australia/New Zealand)

514

4.8

USA/Canada

4512

2.9

Latin America

1596

4.7

Total World Market

22039

2.4

Market by World Region

* Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Philippines

World Pump Market by End Use


complete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
Market by End Use Industry
(63 country aggregate)

$ million 2006
(2003 prices)

Volume growth
% p.a. 2006-2011

Oil, Gas, Refining

3068

3.9

Chemicals

2579

3.2

Power Generation

1843

3.7

Water & Sewerage

3401

1.4

General Industry

11397

2.0

Total Market

22039

2.4

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 3

Sub-division of Pump Market in General Industry


complete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
Market by End Use Industry
(63 country aggregate)

$ billion 2006
(2003 prices)

Volume growth
% p.a. 2006-2011

Mineral mining/processing

740

2.6

Food, drink, pharmaceuticals

1245

1.5

Pulp & paper

713

3.0

Metal manufacturing

901

0.3

Marine

393

4.6

Building services

1471

1.6

Construction dewatering

1087

1.7

Other industry

3094

1.7

Domestic

1753

2.8

General Industry Total

11397

2.0

World Market by Pump Type


complete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts
$ billion 2006
(2003 prices)

Volume growth
% p.a. 2006-2011

Centrifugal

12349

2.3

Reciprocating

2831

2.4

Rotary

1956

2.4

Measuring & dispensing

905

3.1

Domestic & other pumps

3998

3.0

Total All Pumps

22039

2.4

Market by Pump Type

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 4

The Market for Complete Pumps in 63 Countries

The following pages show the market for complete pumps in each of 63
countries. Countries are grouped into world regions as follows:

Asia - Page III 5


West Europe - Page III 6
East Europe - Page III 7
Africa & Middle East - Page III 8
America - Page III 9

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 5

Pump Market in West Europe - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)

Country

2006

2007

Austria

131.5

133.4

Belgium

143.9

Denmark

% pa
2006-11

2009

2010

2011

135.3

136.9

138.8

140.8

1.4

147.6

151.1

154.2

157.8

161.8

2.4

97.0

99.8

102.5

105.1

108.0

111.1

2.8

Finland

90.6

91.8

93.0

93.9

95.1

96.4

1.2

France

855.0

877.6

899.4

918.8

941.6

966.5

2.5

1278.4

1308.8

1338.1

1364.3

1394.9

1428.1

2.2

Greece

66.8

69.0

71.0

72.7

74.8

77.2

2.9

Ireland

66.9

69.2

71.3

72.9

75.1

77.7

3.0

Italy

615.2

628.5

641.3

653.4

666.7

681.2

2.1

Netherlands

225.6

230.5

235.2

239.0

243.9

249.2

2.0

Norway

154.5

156.2

157.9

159.4

160.7

162.0

1.0

Portugal

39.9

41.4

42.9

44.2

45.7

47.4

3.5

Spain

379.8

391.2

402.0

411.6

423.0

435.7

2.8

Sweden

226.3

231.1

235.6

239.4

244.3

249.4

2.0

Switzerland

142.1

143.0

143.8

144.5

145.4

146.3

0.6

United Kingdom

727.9

743.0

757.3

770.6

786.0

802.3

2.0

Germany

2008

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 6

Pump Market in East Europe - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)

Country

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

% pa
2006-11

Bulgaria

21.0

22.8

24.6

26.0

28.1

30.2

7.5

Czech Rep.

35.9

38.3

40.5

42.4

45.0

48.0

6.0

Hungary

62.9

66.4

69.8

73.0

76.9

81.4

5.3

198.0

208.0

218.0

227.2

238.2

250.5

4.8

88.8

95.8

102.2

108.5

116.3

125.0

7.1

389.1

416.2

446.5

476.1

505.4

534.1

6.5

Poland
Romania
Russia

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 7

Pump Market in Africa & Middle East - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)

Country

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

% pa
2006-11

Algeria

88.6

92.1

96.0

99.6

103.3

107.2

3.9

Bahrein

20.1

21.6

23.0

24.4

25.8

27.2

6.2

Egypt

76.9

79.3

81.5

83.6

86.0

88.8

2.9

Iran

213.1

229.9

249.1

267.4

285.4

304.2

7.4

Iraq

26.1

29.2

32.9

36.6

40.3

44.0

11.0

Israel

45.3

48.4

51.3

54.0

57.5

61.5

6.3

Jordan

24.9

26.3

27.7

29.0

30.3

31.6

4.9

Kuwait

66.0

70.2

75.8

81.4

87.0

92.7

7.0

Libya

52.4

56.0

59.6

63.2

66.8

70.4

6.1

Morocco

45.3

47.5

49.4

51.3

53.6

56.1

4.4

Nigeria

38.1

40.2

42.3

44.3

46.3

48.3

4.9

Oman

34.1

36.1

38.6

41.0

43.4

45.7

6.0

Qatar

82.6

84.6

86.7

88.7

90.6

92.4

2.3

South Africa

191.8

200.1

207.8

215.1

224.1

233.8

4.0

Saudi Arabia

228.7

246.1

265.8

285.4

304.8

324.3

7.2

Syria

21.6

22.4

23.2

24.0

24.8

25.9

3.7

Tunisia

23.7

25.2

26.6

28.0

29.6

31.4

5.8

Turkey

204.5

218.4

232.1

245.7

261.8

279.5

6.4

United Arab Emirates

190.5

205.4

222.4

238.6

254.8

271.1

7.3

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 8

Pump Market in Asia - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)

Country

2006

2007

Australia

407.1

430.2

2850.5

% pa
2006-11

2009

2010

2011

452.6

474.7

500.9

529.4

5.4

2606.0

2491.1

2249.2

2008.4

2248.1

-4.6

77.5

79.6

81.6

83.5

85.6

87.9

2.6

603.2

653.9

703.6

751.4

812.1

880.3

7.9

78.2

84.6

90.8

96.7

104.2

112.6

7.6

2981.1

3035.4

3073.6

3095.1

3134.1

3191.1

1.4

463.2

477.3

488.8

497.4

510.9

526.4

2.6

Malaysia

54.5

58.7

62.7

66.7

71.6

77.3

7.2

New Zealand

44.2

43.8

43.3

42.7

42.3

41.9

-1.1

Pakistan

57.8

60.5

63.1

65.6

68.6

71.9

4.5

Philippines

35.3

37.0

38.6

40.1

41.9

43.9

4.5

Singapore

131.4

136.8

141.9

146.6

152.2

158.4

3.8

Sri Lanka

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

3.6

Taiwan

256.0

265.2

273.8

281.7

291.2

301.5

3.3

Thailand

171.5

184.2

196.3

207.6

222.2

238.4

6.8

China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea-South

2008

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 9

Pump Market in America - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)

Country

2006

2007

Argentina

112.3

117.0

Brazil

564.7

Canada
Colombia
Mexico
United States
Venezuela

2008

% pa
2006-11

2009

2010

2011

121.4

125.5

130.7

136.3

3.9

591.6

617.7

641.6

671.0

703.0

4.5

521.0

536.4

550.6

562.5

576.5

591.7

2.6

75.7

79.8

83.8

87.4

91.8

96.6

5.0

694.3

728.7

766.0

802.8

838.8

873.7

4.7

3991.5

4147.2

4259.2

4357.2

4474.8

4613.5

2.9

149.8

159.9

171.7

182.3

193.0

204.0

6.4

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 10

MACRO-ECONOMICS, GDP & INVESTMENT

Two of the most important assumptions affecting the forecasts are the growth
of world trade and oil prices. These are shown in charts on the next page.
World trade growth is expected to slow down over the next few years as a
result of high oil prices, but to move back to its trend growth rate in 2011.
However, this is dependent on the oil price falling from its present high level,
as shown in the chart at the foot of the next page.

The high oil price in 2006 is the result of several factors, notably:

war in Iraq and Afghanistan and associated terrorism

shortage of global refining capacity

high level of demand for oil in 2005

We expect that disruption to supplies caused by the Iraq conflict will lessen over
the next few years. The demand for oil will moderate as world trade growth
slows and the oil price will also be dampened by the coming on-stream of new
oil supplies and refining capacity. For all these reasons we expect that oil
prices will moderate and will not cause a recession in world trade.

The main threat to future macro-economic prospects is a crisis over the


development of nuclear facilities in Iran. At present it seems that the risks to
world trade and oil supplies, arising from intervention by the US in Iran, are
too great, and so Iran will be able to proceed with its objectives, at least over
the next few years.
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 11

World Trade Growth


World Trade Volume in Goods - Annual % Change

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

-2

Oil Prices - Brent Crude - $ barrel


60
50
40
30
20

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

10

2011

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 12

Forecasts of GDP Growth

GDP forecasts are summarised in the table on the next page. World growth
is forecast at 2.9% p.a. 2006-2011, in line with last year's results. There are,
however, some significant differences from last year's report.

GDP growth in China is put at 3.3%, compared with 8% last year. This is
because the time profile of growth in China has been well above trend in the
last few years, the starting year 2006 being an all time peak. Detailed
consideration of China is given later.

Russia and the Middle East are expected to grow more rapidly than
estimated last year, the result of sustained high oil prices. The counterpart is
slower growth in Europe and North America

Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following
pages:

Asia - Page II 14
West Europe - Page II 15
East Europe - Page II 16
Africa & Middle East - Page II 17
America - Page II 18

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 13

Forecast Growth of World Trade in Manufactured Goods


Percent per year

World Trade Volume

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

7.4

6.2

6.0

5.8

6.2

6.6

Forecast GDP Growth Rates by World Region


Percent per year
2006
%

2007
%

2008
%

2009
%

2010
%

2011
%

cagr
% 2011/2006

Germany
Other West Europe

1.8
2.4

1.6
2.4

1.5
2.3

1.3
2.1

1.5
2.3

1.6
2.4

1.5
2.3

Russia
Other East Europe

6
4.8

5.8
4.8

6
4.4

5.6
4.1

5.3
4.6

5
4.8

5.5
4.5

Africa
Middle East

4.9
5.8

4.7
6

4.5
6

4.2
5.6

4.5
5.6

4.5
5.6

4.5
5.7

China
India
Japan
Pacific Rim
Other Asia

9
7.3
2.8
5.1
3.2

8
7
2.2
5.1
3.9

7
6.5
2
4.7
3.6

-1
6
1.8
4.3
3.4

-5
6.8
2
4.9
3.8

8
7
2.2
5.1
4

3.3
6.7
2
4.8
3.7

USA/Canada
Latin America

3.6
4.4

2.7
3.6

2.5
3.6

2.3
3.3

2.5
3.4

2.7
3.4

2.6
3.5

World

3.6

3.2

2.4

2.5

3.2

2.9

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 14

GDP Growth Rates for West Europe - (Volume % p.a.)

Country

GDP
Population
Millions, 2000 $/head 2000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Austria

8.3

30855

2.5

2.2

2.1

1.9

2.1

2.2

Belgium

10.4

28855

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.0

2.3

2.4

Denmark

5.5

37709

3.0

2.4

2.3

2.0

2.3

2.4

Finland

5.3

30886

3.4

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.7

2.8

France

60.0

29240

2.1

2.2

2.1

1.9

2.1

2.2

Germany

83.9

30067

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.6

Greece

10.7

14439

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.0

3.4

3.6

Ireland

3.7

32837

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.2

4.7

5.0

Italy

58.8

22328

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.3

Netherlands

16.0

29412

2.4

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.7

2.8

Norway

4.4

39772

2.5

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.9

Portugal

10.1

12792

0.7

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.5

Spain

40.2

17258

3.3

3.0

2.8

2.5

2.8

3.0

Sweden

9.1

32142

3.9

3.3

3.1

2.8

3.2

3.3

Switzerland

7.3

41013

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.8

60.3

25391

2.4

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

United Kingdom

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 15

GDP Growth Rates for East Europe

Country
Bulgaria

GDP
Population
Millions, 2000 $/head 2000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

8.5

1482

5.6

5.8

5.4

5.0

5.6

5.8

Czech Republic

10.4

4980

5.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

4.5

4.7

Hungary

10.4

5961

4.6

4.4

4.1

3.8

4.2

4.4

Poland

39.6

4656

4.4

4.6

4.3

3.9

4.4

4.6

Romania

23.0

1265

5.2

5.6

5.2

4.8

5.4

5.6

150.6

3200

6.0

5.8

6.0

5.6

5.3

5.0

Russian Federation

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 16

GDP Growth Rates for Africa/Middle East - (Volume % p.a.)

Country

GDP
Population
Millions, 2000 $/head 2000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Algeria

30.4

2102

4.9

5.0

5.2

4.8

4.5

4.4

Bahrain

0.6

24166

7.1

6.3

6.5

6.1

5.7

5.5

Egypt

64.0

1600

5.2

5.2

4.8

4.5

5.0

5.2

Iran (Islamic Republic

65.1

1692

5.3

5.0

5.2

4.8

4.5

4.4

Iraq

22.4

1620

7.0

15.0

15.6

14.4

13.6

13.1

Israel

6.0

19783

3.4

4.7

4.4

4.0

4.5

4.7

Jordan

4.1

1756

5.0

5.0

5.2

4.8

4.5

4.4

Kuwait

2.1

27809

6.2

4.7

4.9

4.5

4.3

4.1

Libyan Arab

5.5

3109

5.0

4.6

4.8

4.4

4.2

4.0

28.4

1654

5.4

4.4

4.1

3.8

4.2

4.4

106.9

331

6.2

5.2

5.4

5.0

4.7

4.5

Oman

2.2

25727

6.2

6.0

6.2

5.8

5.4

5.2

Qatar

0.5

38000

7.1

5.3

5.5

5.1

4.8

4.6

South Africa

39.5

3625

4.3

4.1

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.1

Saudi Arabia

19.6

8545

6.3

6.4

6.6

6.2

5.8

5.6

Syrian Arab Republic

13.7

2284

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.6

Tunisia

8.8

3659

5.8

6.0

5.6

5.1

5.8

6.0

Turkey

65.0

3030

6.1

6.4

5.9

5.5

6.2

6.4

2.5

21120

6.5

5.2

5.4

5.0

4.7

4.5

Morocco
Nigeria

United Arab Emirates

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 17

GDP Growth Rates for Asia - (Volume % p.a.)

Country
Australia

GDP
Population
Millions, 2000 $/head 2000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

18.9

28291

2.9

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.6

3.7

1257.5

1154

9.5

9.0

8.2

7.8

8.3

8.5

6.7

25716

5.5

4.5

4.2

3.9

4.3

4.5

India

987.5

567

7.3

7.0

6.5

6.0

6.8

7.0

Indonesia

204.5

760

5.0

6.0

5.6

5.1

5.8

6.0

Japan

129.1

31757

2.8

2.2

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.2

Republic of Korea

47.0

10893

5.2

5.3

4.9

4.5

5.1

5.3

Malaysia

22.2

4274

5.5

5.8

5.4

5.0

5.6

5.8

3.8

19473

1.3

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.9

146.9

602

6.4

6.3

5.9

5.4

6.1

6.3

Philippines

75.0

1246

4.5

3.5

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.5

Singapore

3.1

39322

5.5

4.5

4.2

3.9

4.3

4.5

Sri Lanka

17.8

797

5.6

6.2

5.8

5.3

6.0

6.2

Taiwan

21.9

18557

4.5

4.3

4.0

3.7

4.1

4.3

Thailand

62.1

2299

5.0

5.4

5.0

4.6

5.2

5.4

China
Hong Kong SAR of

New Zealand
Pakistan

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 18

GDP Growth Rates for America - (Volume % p.a.)

Country
Argentina

GDP
Population
Millions, 2000 $/head 2000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

36.3

10239

7.3

4.0

3.7

3.4

3.9

4.0

Brazil

163.2

5321

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.5

Canada

30.9

25744

3.1

3.3

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.1

Colombia

41.1

2265

4.5

4.0

3.7

3.4

3.9

4.0

Mexico

97.4

5771

4.1

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

273.9

39213

3.6

3.1

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.7

22.7

3467

6.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.6

United States
Venezuela

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 19

Investment and the Pump Market

Sales of complete pumps (i.e. original equipment) are fundamentally


determined by investment in plant and equipment by pump-using industries.
For this reason we pay close attention to trends in investment and to the
sub-division of investment appropriate for monitoring the pump market.

Although GDP growth is the main influence on the growth of investment,


investment in pump-using industries does not necessarily move in proportion
to global investment. In the advanced industrial countries the investment in
pump-using industries tends to grow more slowly than investment as a whole
because the latter includes a high volume of rapidly growing investment in
information technology which has no pump content. In developing countries
the link between global investment and investment in pump-using industries
is usually closer than in the industrial countries because emphasis is on
infrastructure, which normally has a relatively high pump content.

The table on the next page summarises the growth of global investment by
world region. The relative growth of investment by world region follows the
pattern shown for GDP, but investment growth rates are generally higher
than the growth of GDP.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 20

Forecast Investment Growth Rates


by World Region
Volume, annual % change

2006
%

2007
%

2008
%

2009
%

2010
%

2011
%

cagr
% 2011/2006

Germany
Other West Europe

2.9
4

2.5
3.2

2.4
3

2.3
2.8

2.8
3.4

3.4
4

2.7
3.3

Russia
Other East Europe

9
7.3

8.7
7.5

9.1
6.9

8.3
6

7.7
7.1

7.1
7.5

8.2
7

Africa
Middle East

7.4
10.3

7.1
9.8

6.6
9.8

6
9

6.5
9.2

6.8
9.2

6.6
9.4

China
India
Japan
Pacific Rim
Other Asia

10
11
2.3
5.7
6.9

8
10.5
1.3
5.9
6.5

7
9.5
0.9
5.1
6

-11
8.5
0.5
4.4
5.6

-12.5
10.1
0.9
5.5
6.5

6
10.5
1.3
6
6.8

-0.9
9.8
1
5.4
6.3

USA/Canada
Latin America

5.5
6.6

3.1
5.8

2.7
5.7

2.3
5.2

2.7
5.4

3.1
5.3

2.8
5.5

World

5.5

4.3

3.9

1.6

2.2

4.3

3.3

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 21

World Investment Trends in Industrial and Other Countries

Investment in industrial countries is twice as high as investment in other


countries, despite accounting for only 18% of the population.

Investment growth rates in the industrial countries are only half the rate of
those of other countries. Definitions and relative sizes are summarised in
the tables below.

Industrial = USA, Canada, West


Europe, Japan, Singapore, Australia,
New Zealand
Investment 2005 = $2,228 billion for
845 million population
Trend growth 2005-2011 = 3.3% cagr
Other = 42 other countries with the
highest GDP

Investment 2005 = $1,110 billion for


3,950 million population
Trend growth 2005-2011 = 6.3% cagr
(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 22

Investment Trends by End Use Industry

So far we have been discussing trends in global investment. But the analysis
of the pump market requires that investment is sub-divided because pump
content, and the pump types required, depend on pump applications which
vary by end use industry.

Although we distinguish 18 end use industries, (including a sub-division of oil


and gas between onshore and offshore), for the purpose of a summary we
identify:

Oil, Gas, Refining

Chemicals

Power Generation

Water & Sewerage

General Industry

The first three groups cover pump requirements in energy-intensive high


technology applications and pump unit costs are usually higher than in the
two other groups. Water and sewerage is identified because of its very
specific applications. Although general industry has end uses which vary
widely in pump requirements, it is more dependent on the overall growth of
the economy than are the other four groups.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 23

Oil, Gas, Refining

The table below summarises the key issues. A major point is that the trend
growth in demand for oil is 2% p.a, compared with 4% p.a. for gas and gasrelated end uses.

In the case of oil refining, we expect a substantial boost to investment over


the next five years.

Some Key Issues affecting Investment in Oil, Gas & Refining


Oil & Gas Growth Areas

deep sub-sea oil

non-conventional oil (Ngl/Gtl/Heavy oil)

LNG - rapid volume growth, but fall in capital costs

gas demand is growing faster than oil

Refining

Generally recognised that shortage of refining capacity is partly to blame for high oil prices

High refining margins to boost investment substantially in USA from 2005

Total to double refinery investment

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 24

World Oil Production and Investment

The chart on Page II 25 shows the forecast growth in oil production.

High oil prices have resulted in a continuous upgrade in investment forecasts


by oil companies. The table at the foot of Page II 25 shows a large increase in
investment in 2006 for most countries or companies. A year ago the forecasts
by the oil majors for investment in 2006 were much more conservative.
Their investment forecasts were based on a long term oil price of $30 per
barrel, but now most take the view that the long term oil price will be $40 a
barrel.

At $40 per barrel many investments in unconventional oil and gas, and oil
and gas substitutes become economic. This applies to oil shale, heavy oil,
gas-to-liquids and also to coal gasification and liquefaction. Large
investments in heavy oil and oil shale are underway in Canada and
Venezuela. Investment in gas-to-liquids is booming in the Middle East.
China is the leader in coal gasification and liquefaction projects.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 25

World Oil Production - Million Barrels/Day

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Ngl/Gtl/Heavy Oil

3.5

4.15

4.9

6.1

7.2

8.7

10.8

Conventional

58.8

52.4

59.4

61.1

66.8

71.8

78.3

Some Recent Trends in Oil & Gas Capital Expenditure


$ million, current prices
2003

2004

2005

2006

Russia

4074

5085

7505

9000

Brazil

6012

7441

9580

11500

Mexico

10118

10907

10800

13100

Venezuela

2082

3332

4500

5600

Exxonmobil*

11988

11715

14470

16351

Shell*

8129

8600

10800

15000

Total*

5996

7709

8776

11950

BP*

9658

9839

10100

11000

* net of acquisitions

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 26

Capital Investment in Oil, Gas, Refining


$ billion at 2003 prices
Industrial countries compared with other countries

Oil, gas, refining-industrial


70
60
50
40
30
20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

10

Oil, gas, refining-other


160
140
120
100
80
60
40

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

20

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 27

World LNG Production

The reduced availability of oil, coupled with falling costs of LNG, have led
to a rapid growth of LNG production. Production is expected to double
2005-2010.

LNG investment involves production and export plants (traditionally in the


Middle East and Asia), regasification plants in receiving countries and LNG
tankers. New sources of LNG are being developed in Norway, Trinidad,
Russia and a number of other countries. Regasification plants are being built
in the USA, and West Europe in particular. Most of the LNG tankers are built
in South Korea or Japan.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 28

World LNG Production


million tonnes

250

200

150

100

50

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

LNG Capital Costs


$ per tonne of capacity

1995

2002

2005

2010

2015

Liquefaction

330

230

220

200

190

Regasification

130

105

102

100

95

LNG Tankers

210

140

130

110

100

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 29

Oil Refining Investment

The table below shows very weak levels of investment in the late 1990s,
following a collapse in the oil price. Investment in West Europe fell as
refineries closed, although in recent years environmental legislation did help
to support spending. The largest increases in investment are expected in Asia
and America.

Oil Refining Investment


$m 2003 prices

West europe

East europe

Africa/mid-east

Asia

America
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 30

Chemicals

Key issues affecting investment in the chemicals industry are shown in the
table below.

The most important factor is the difference between investment in the


advanced industrial countries, mainly concerned with plant revamps, and
investment in other countries, where new plants are being built. Investment
trends are shown in the charts on Page II 31.

The chart at the top of Page II 32 suggests that a peak will be reached for capital
investment in 2006, owing to the Chinese investment boom.

Some Key Issues affecting Investment in Chemicals

Industrial countries: recession in investment and re-structuring

recession ended in 2005


restructuring continues (e.g. BASF)

Other countries: rapid growth, particularly those with oil resources. This
depresses long term chemical investment in the industrial countries

High oil prices are boosting investment in coal-based chemicals by liquefaction


and gasification - especially in countries, such as China, who have large deposits
of low grade coal

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 31

Capital Investment in Chemicals


$ billion at 2003 prices
Industrial countries compared with other countries

Chemicals-industrial
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Chemicals-other
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 32

Capital Investment in Chemicals by Major Companies based in some regions


$ million, current prices
Europe

US

Japan

China

Saudi Basic

50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

est.
2006

est
2007

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 33

Power Generation

Some key issues affecting investment in power generation are shown in the
table below. Investment trends are shown on Page II 34.

A major feature is the recovery of investment in the advanced industrial


countries, particularly the USA, after several years of recession. But 50% of
new projects will be built in China over the next few years. Most coal-fired
plants are built in China and India, but the USA is expected to switch to coal
over the next five years owing to high gas prices.

Large subsidies are currently being given to wind power, which is at the
expense of investment in pump-using power plants. Investment in nuclear
power may recover in some countries, but not immediately.

Some Key Issues affecting Investment in Power Generation


Recovery from generalised recession from 2005

50% of new projects in China

Subsidies for wind power divert investment away from pumps

Resurgence of nuclear possible, but not immediate

High gas prices cause switch to coal in USA

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 34

Capital Investment in Power Generation


$ billion at 2003 prices
Industrial countries compared with other countries

Power generation-industrial
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Power generation-other
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 35

Water & Sewerage

Charts on investment in industrial countries, compared with other countries,


are shown on Page II 36.

Industrial countries account for more than double the level of investment
achieved in other countries. But investment by the industrial countries as a
whole fell sharply in recent years owing to the unwinding of a massive
investment programme in Japan. Environment investment is a major feature
in the industrial countries.

Investment in the developing countries is largely dependent on international


aid. Owing to widespread corruption much of the money voted in the past for
water projects in developing countries was stolen, and this has led to
reductions in the aid budget. The ambitious objectives for the UN
Millennium Water and Sanitation Programme are unlikely to be achieved.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 36

Capital Investment in Water & Sewerage


$ billion at 2003 prices
Industrial countries compared with other countries

Water & Sewerage - Industrial

Water & sewerage


86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Water & Sewerage - Other


Water & sewerage
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 37

General Industry

Market size is mainly dependent on the level of GDP, rather than the
availability of natural resources. This is why there is a larger differential in
market size between industrial and other countries than most other sectors.
Charts on Page II 38 show that market size in industrial countries is twice the
level of other countries.

The market is much more stable than that for oil & gas, chemicals and power.
This even applies to pulp and paper in the industrial countries, since paper
demand is closely related to the level of GDP.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 38

Capital Investment in General Industry


$ billion at 2003 prices
Industrial countries compared with other countries

General industry-industrial
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

General industry-other
1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 39

Investment Summary by End Use Industry

As already mentioned, the main factor determining the growth of the world
pump market is the level of investment by pump-using industries. EIF have
developed a database over the last decade on annual investment in plant and
equipment by end use industry in every major country in the world. This
database is a key input into estimates of pump market size and growth
potential. It is allied with a database covering 4,500 new projects and a
database on imports of pumps to provide a coherent analysis of world pump
markets. An outline of methodology is given in the Appendix.

Pages II 40 and II 41 show the relative size of world investment in plant and
equipment by region and end use industry. In this context world means the
total for the 63 countries identified in this report. The Appendix shows the
world breakdown by region for each individual end use and also the
estimated pump content of investment by end use industry.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 40

Capital Investment by World Region


$ billion at 2003 prices
Annual averages for successive three-year periods

2003-2005 2006-2008

2009-11

West European Total

1116.7

1197.1

1271.5

East European Total

88.6

100.3

118.3

28

31.7

39.3

- Other Eastern Europe

60.6

68.6

79

Africa & Middle East Total

233.5

263.7

309

- Middle East

146.4

166.9

199.7

- Africa

87.1

96.8

109.4

Australasia & Far East Total

1426

1607.6

1618

- China

398.6

478.8

389.4

- Japan

657.9

711.6

741.6

- India

65.2

87

115.7

- Pacific Rim

224.9

241

268.9

- Other Asia

79.7

89.1

102.5

North & South America Total

1100.8

1253.1

1381.2

- USA & Canada

862.2

970

1061.1

- Latin America

238.5

283.1

320.1

World Total

3965.8

4421.7

4698.1

- Russia

Source: EIF estimates. See Appendix for detail by end use industry

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 41

Capital Investment in Plant and Equipment by End Use


Annual averages in $ billions at 2003 Prices

ENDUSE

2003-2005

2006-2008

2009-11

Oil & Gas

99.2

122.6

137.6

Oil Refining

26.7

34.2

38.7

Basic Chemicals

69

81.2

90.2

Other Chemicals

34.3

40.9

44.8

Food**

47

54.6

56.6

Drink**

16

17.5

18.2

Pharmaceuticals**

18.7

21.1

22.2

Power Generation

123

146.2

163.9

Metal Manufacture**

69.7

81.2

81

Marine Production/Repair**

8.1

9.3

Mineral Mining/Processing**

12.6

15.1

16.3

Pulp & Paper**

29.9

36.6

40

Water & Sewerage

124.9

128.9

134.9

Non-Residential Construction+ **

582.8

631.9

665.3

Construction Output+ **

2061.9

2296.8

2414.3

Other Industry**

106.4

115.1

121

Domestic Dwellings+ **

536.8

589.7

644

World Total

3965.8

4421.7

4698.1

+ Value of construction put in place


** included in 'General Industry'
Source: EIF estimates. See Appendix for detail by world area

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 42

Pump Markets in the World's largest Countries/Regions

In this section we consider developments in the world's largest countries by


population and land area, which are summarised in the table at the top of the
next page.

Countries in West Europe who are linked to the Euro will continue to be
subject to slow growth as a result of over-valuation of the Euro relative to the
$ and Yen.

In the USA the recent weakening of the dollar will boost competitiveness,
support the growth of the economy, boost exports and reduce imports (with
particular benefits to the chemical industry).

Developments in Russia are highly dependent on the oil and gas sector.
Domestic pump market growth in China is expected to slow down, but China
will continue to become increasingly important as a world supplier of
pumps. The growth of the Indian pump market has improved markedly in
recent years, although market size lags well behind China.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 43

Some Key Issues affecting the Largest Countries/Regions


West Europe

USA

the strength of Euro will continue to hold back growth in countries linked
to the Euro
devaluation of $ will boost export competitiveness

Russia

market growth depends on oil and gas sector

China

the phenomenal domestic growth in last four years expected to slow, but
China is becoming a major force in world pump export markets

India

definite acceleration of GDP growth in recent years will lead to faster


market growth, but market size much smaller than in China

Complete Pump Market Trends for West Europe - $ million 2003 prices
Oil, gas, refining

Chemicals

General industry

Water resources

Power generation

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 44

Complete Pump Market Trends for USA - $m 2003 prices


General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Complete Pump Market Trends for Russia - $m 2003 prices


General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 45

China

In this year's report we have paid special attention to China, both as a market
and as a pump supplier. Historical data, for the period 1995-2005, has been
revised, both with regard to capital investment by end use and the pump
content of investment. Particular consideration has also been given to the
likely shape of the investment cycle, which has influenced the forecasts.

The chart below summaries the results. The pump market grew at an
incredible rate 2002-2005, but is expected to peak in 2006. Investment will
remain strong through the Olympic Games in 2008, but will be in decline
until a recovery in 2011.

Complete Pump Market Trends for China - $m 2003pr.


General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 46

Pump Market in India

The Indian pump market is expected to grow by almost 8% p.a. but by 2011
will remain only one-third of the size of China. Although India has some
progressive companies, particularly in the oil, gas and refining sectors, there
is generally a lack of the dynamism so prevalent in China. Bureaucracy
continues to be a major handicap to development, despite attempts to reform
the system in recent years. Nevertheless, fast growth can be expected to
transform efficiency, particularly as greater Western involvement is
probable.

Complete Pump Market Trends for India - $m 2003 prices


General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 47

Pump Export Summary

The detailed tables in Volume II identify imports of pumps into 63 countries


supplied by exports from the EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China . The
table below summarises exports by supplier in 2005.

World Pump Exports in 2005


$ million at 2003 prices

Pump Supplier

Complete
pumps

Pump
Parts

Total
Exports

EU (15 countries)

6284

3635

9919

USA

1243

702

1945

Japan

892

647

1539

China

813

361

1174

Total identified in detail

9232

5345

14577

Chinese exports grew by 30% per year 2002-2005, compared with zero
growth for the combined exports of the EU (15 countries), USA and Japan.
Chinese export growth is clearly at the expense of export growth by the
major industrial countries.

The next page explores changes in Chinese market share for exports of
complete pumps and pump parts.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 48

China as a Supplier of Complete Pumps (see Page II 49)

In 2005 exports of complete pumps by China accounted for 8.8% of the


combined export by EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China. In 2002 the
Chinese market share was only 2.9%. In the large pump markets, the
Chinese import market share in 2005 was above average in Indonesia (46%),
Japan (33%), UAE (32%), Thailand (20%), USA (17%), India (13%),
Australia (13%) and Iran (12%).

China as a Supplier of Pump Parts ( see Page II 50)

China accounted for 6.8% of imports of pump parts in 2005 (2.9% in 2002).
Above average import market shares were in Japan (44%), Indonesia (37%),
USA (22%) and Singapore (7%).

Significance of China as a Supplier

At present most of the exports by China are probably directly or indirectly


controlled by Western pump manufacturers, either through joint ventures or
as distributors. This can be expected to change in the future as more
independent Chinese pump manufacturers develop export markets. Even
today, however, the significance of China as a pump exporter is underrepresented in volume terms by the figures quoted above, which relate to
percent shares of $ values. This is because Chinese export prices are
probably only 50% of Western prices for similar products.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 49

Imports of Complete Pumps, Ranked by China's share in 2005

SRI LANKA
INDONESIA
PAKISTAN
SYRIA
NIGERIA
JAPAN
HONG KONG
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
IRAQ
PHILIPPINES
MALAYSIA
ARGENTINA
THAILAND
VENEZUELA
UNITED STATES
JORDAN
INDIA
AUSTRALIA
SINGAPORE
EGYPT
IRAN
SOUTH AFRICA
ALGERIA
COLOMBIA
LIBYA
MOROCCO
ISRAEL
WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL)
TURKEY
FINLAND
NEW ZEALAND
KOREA - SOUTH
POLAND
TAIWAN
GREECE
BRAZIL
GERMANY
MEXICO
SAUDI ARABIA
NETHERLANDS
BELGIUM
ITALY
ROMANIA
RUSSIA
CANADA
OMAN
DENMARK
PORTUGAL
SPAIN
HUNGARY
TUNISIA
AUSTRIA
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE
BULGARIA
KUWAIT
IRELAND
CZECH REPUBLIC
SWEDEN
QATAR
SWITZERLAND
NORWAY

(C)

CHINA
CHINA
CHINA
ALL
2005
2002
2003
SUPPLIERS
$ MILLION
PERCENT
PERCENT
2005
2003 PRICES
SHARE
SHARE
$ MILLION
2003 PRICES
6.7
4.1
12.9
34
105.2
48.8
33.6
41.3
25.4
11.6
9.9
26
26.8
10.9
2.5
18.8
45.3
17.7
6.7
16.6
167.4
55.6
19
27.4
85.7
28
20.5
24.7
196.9
63.6
9.3
17.6
28.9
8.2
7.4
2.3
34.6
9
7.2
16.6
51.4
12.3
9
17
26.4
5.8
0.6
8
143.7
28.9
7.8
7.9
43.7
8.5
2.5
7.1
807.9
140
6
8.3
21.3
3.2
1.4
5.4
107.8
14.4
1.4
2.2
140.8
18.2
4.3
9.3
118.8
14.5
2.8
4.6
65.1
7.8
1.5
5.8
147.7
17
6.2
5.2
68.7
7.7
0.9
7.5
74
8.2
2.3
4.5
22.5
2.4
2.6
7.6
41.7
4.3
0.3
2.4
36.2
3.3
0.6
2.8
36.6
3.3
2.5
5.5
9234.2
813.1
2.9
4.3
159.1
12.7
1.5
3.2
74.3
5.7
1
2.8
24.2
1.8
2.5
4.9
259
19.1
1.2
3.1
155.1
10.7
2
2.2
174
11.4
1.4
5.5
69
4.5
1.5
2.8
58
3.6
0.5
1.4
775.3
47.7
2.9
3.9
145.6
8.7
1.5
2.7
160.5
8.6
1.1
1.8
248.1
13.5
0.7
2.6
154
8.2
2
3.1
382.9
18
0.7
1.2
66.2
2.7
0.1
0.3
292.7
11.3
0.7
0.9
482.8
16.7
1.5
2
25.5
0.9
0
0
94.8
3.2
0.6
0.7
69.9
2.3
0.4
1.1
357.7
9.6
0.4
0.9
87.6
2.4
0.2
1.2
17.8
0.5
0.5
0.8
136.6
3.5
0.2
0.6
315.3
7.9
0.9
0.9
602.6
14.2
0.7
1
15.4
0.3
0
0
51.1
0.8
0.1
0.9
59.1
1
0.1
0.4
89
1.3
0.2
0.4
147.3
1.5
0.2
0.5
62.2 Industrial
0.6Forecasting0.2
European
Ltd 2006 0.2
123.3
0.8
0
0
99.9
0.2
0
0

CHINA
2004
PERCENT
SHARE

CHINA
2005
PERCENT
SHARE

43.1
40.2
36.9
33.3
25.3
36.3
28.2
28
1.1
25
16
16.8
11.6
12.8
12.5
10.4
8.2
11.1
8.5
7.6
8.2
11
5.2
5.8
4.5
4.3
7.1
6.5
7.3
4.2
6.7
4.9
3.5
9.1
3.7
3
5
3.5
4.4
3
5.1
2.5
2.8
1.9
2
1.5
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.4
1.1
1
2
1.3
2.1
1.5
0.2
0.7
1.3
0.9
0
0.3

60.8
46.4
45.8
40.6
39.1
33.2
32.7
32.3
28.5
25.9
23.9
21.9
20.1
19.5
17.3
14.9
13.3
12.9
12.2
12
11.5
11.2
11.1
10.8
10.3
9.2
9
8.8
8
7.6
7.5
7.4
6.9
6.6
6.5
6.3
6.1
6
5.4
5.4
5.3
4.7
4
3.9
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.2
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.4
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1
1
0.7
0.2

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 50

Imports of Pump Parts, Ranked by China's share in 2005

JAPAN
INDONESIA
UNITED STATES
PAKISTAN
SRI LANKA
HONG KONG
RUSSIA
TAIWAN
PHILIPPINES
DENMARK
VENEZUELA
SINGAPORE
NIGERIA
WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL)
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
OMAN
ARGENTINA
ITALY
KOREA - SOUTH
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
IRELAND
MALAYSIA
EGYPT
SYRIA
JORDAN
NETHERLANDS
SAUDI ARABIA
GREECE
FINLAND
CANADA
SWEDEN
AUSTRIA
ISRAEL
IRAN
MOROCCO
UNITED KINGDOM
TURKEY
INDIA
GERMANY
THAILAND
FRANCE
TUNISIA
COLOMBIA
HUNGARY
ALGERIA
SOUTH AFRICA
BRAZIL
SPAIN
BULGARIA
BELGIUM
LIBYA
MEXICO
POLAND
ROMANIA
IRAQ
SWITZERLAND
QATAR
PORTUGAL
KUWAIT
CZECH REPUBLIC

(C)

CHINA
CHINA
CHINA
ALL
2005
2002
2003
SUPPLIERS
$ MILLION
PERCENT
PERCENT
2005
2003 PRICES
SHARE
SHARE
$ MILLION
2003 PRICES
115.1
50.6
21.9
26.4
26.3
9.8
22.8
29.6
745.7
161.6
13.8
16
10.3
2
24.2
12.7
3.4
0.6
13.1
13.2
22.7
3.6
6.1
9.2
62
8.9
0.8
0.7
59.1
7.7
4.9
7.3
10.2
1.3
8.5
14.8
55.5
7
9.7
11.6
38.1
3.6
0.3
0.5
105.8
7.7
3.6
5.1
15.1
1
0.7
1.5
5345.7
361.6
3.3
4
53.9
3.6
2.6
4.3
9.4
0.6
0
0
17.1
1.1
0.1
6.7
220.7
13.1
1.6
2.4
178.6
9.2
2.9
2.6
63
3.2
2.1
3.8
6.9
0.3
1
2.7
25.2
1.2
0.7
1.3
30.6
1.4
3.1
4.2
37
1.5
1
3.3
10.2
0.4
1.4
1.1
5.6
0.2
5.1
4.7
136.3
4.6
1.1
1.7
63.3
2.1
1
2
21.9
0.7
1.1
3.3
33.6
1.1
0.3
1.1
350.6
11.5
2.1
2.7
68.4
2
2.2
1.4
104.1
2.9
1.6
1.9
11.5
0.3
1.6
1.4
54.9
1.3
0.5
1.5
14.3
0.3
0.2
1
248.7
5.2
0.6
0.9
94
2
1.3
1.3
89.7
1.9
0.2
0.2
417.6
8.6
0.8
0.9
66.3
1.2
1.7
1.5
325.9
5.9
0.3
0.4
8.3
0.1
0
0.4
14.3
0.2
1.4
1.3
68.1
0.9
0.2
0.2
42.1
0.6
0.7
0.9
45.8
0.6
1.8
2.1
76.3
1
1
0.9
141.3
1.7
0.5
0.3
5.8
0.1
0.1
0
97.3
1.1
0.4
0.7
21.8
0.2
0.6
0.3
97.5
0.6
1.4
1
82.7
0.5
0.1
0.1
25.9
0.1
0.1
0.2
10.1
0
0.2
0
53.8
0.1
0.1
0.2
23.1
0.1
0
0
22.3
0
0.1
0
20 Industrial0Forecasting0.3
European
Ltd 2006 0.1
154
0.3
0
0

CHINA
2004
PERCENT
SHARE

CHINA
2005
PERCENT
SHARE

34.8
25.3
21.1
12.8
21.8
10.9
7.3
11.4
14.5
13.7
1.8
9.5
3
5.7
8
0.6
9
4.8
3
5.1
3.5
3.8
6.3
3.8
3.7
1.9
2.2
1.8
3.9
2.5
3.1
1.3
3
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.3
2.2
0.7
1.4
1.7
1.4
0.9
0.8
0.6
2.3
4.4
1.9
0.7
0
1.1
0.7
1.9
0.2
1.2
0
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0

43.9
37.3
21.7
19.1
16.6
16.1
14.4
13.1
12.7
12.7
9.6
7.3
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.3
6.3
5.9
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.8
4.5
4.1
4
4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 51

Pump Exports by suppliers not identified in detail

For most of the developing countries we have used imports, measured by


exports from the EU, USA, Japan and China, as the best indicator of
historical trends in market size and growth and have made an allowance in
market size for other exporters and domestic production. This procedure is
satisfactory as long as other exporters are not significant, or, where they are
significant, they are not taking market share from our identified exporters.

The following pages show export destinations in the year 2004 or 2005 for
most of the exporters not identified in detail. Some of the countries for which
pump markets are not shown in this report are also identified, e.g.
Kazakhstan. We show exports by the following pump suppliers:

Europe

Asia

America

Switzerland

South Korea

Canada

Russia

Taiwan

Mexico

Poland

Hong Kong

Brazil

Norway

India

Czech Republic

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 52

Europe: Pump Exports by Destination - Selected countries in 2004 or 2005

Switzerland

Russia

$ Million in 2005

$ Million in 2005

Czech Republic

Azerbaijan
Netherlands

Sweden

China

Spain

Uzbekistan

China

United Kingdom

India

Austria

Ukraine

Italy

France

Not identified

United States

Not identified

Kazakhstan

Germany

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

10

20

Poland

Norway

$ Million in 2004

$ Million in 2004

Belgium

30

40

50

60

Croatia

United Kingdom

Romania

Germany

Ukraine
Australia

United Kingdom

China

Japan

Germany
Not identified

Not identified

Korea - South

10

20

30

40

50

60

Czech Republic
$ Million in 2004
Slovakia
Not identified
Belgium
United Kingdom
Sweden
Japan
Poland
Austria
United States
Italy
France
Germany

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 53

Asia: Pump Exports by Destination - Selected countries in 2004 or 2005

Korea - South

Taiwan

$ Million in 2005

$ Million in 2004

United Kingdom

United Kingdom

India
Hong Kong

Canada
China

United States
Japan

China
United States

Japan
Not identified

Not identified

20

40

60

80

100

120

10

20

Hong Kong

India

$ Million in 2005

$ Million in 2004

30

40

50

60

70

80

Singapore

Not identified

Italy
France
Iraq

United States

United Arab Emirates


United Kingdom
United States

China

Germany
Not identified

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

20

30

40

50

60

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 54


America: Pump Exports by Destination - Selected countries in 2004 or 2005
Canada
$ Million in 2005
Cuba
Sudan
Australia
Russia
United Kingdom
Taiwan
Not identified
United States

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Mexico
$ Million in 2005

Venezuela

Canada

Not identified

United States

100

200

300

400

500

600

Brazil
$ Million in 2004
India
Singapore
Turkey
Mexico
United Kingdom
Argentina
China
Not identified
United States
Germany

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 55

Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts

There are many uncertainties surrounding the forecasts. The following notes
attempt to place these into perspective. There are four main issues:

a) Data problems affecting historical measurement of market size


b) Macro-economic issues
c) Issues affecting specific industries
d) Issues affecting particular countries

Data Problems

Analysis of the pump market depends to a large extent on the proper


measurement of trends and cycles of fixed investment by end use industry.
Detailed notes on our methodology are given in the Appendix. The main
difficulty we have is that historical investment data based on government
statistics (the most reliable source) is usually two years out of date, and is
also subject to large revisions. The last complete data relates to the year
2004. Figures on fixed investment by end use industry for the year 2005 are
our estimates, while for 2006 the figures are our forecasts. We bridge the gap
by detailed analysis of investment in major projects, but there are difficulties
here arising from the time-phasing of each project.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 56

Macro-Economic Issues

The main uncertainty this year is the impact of the oil price on world trade.
We have taken relatively optimistic assumptions here.

An additional uncertainty is whether the war with Iraq and Afghanistan


and prolonged terrorist activity has a significant impact on the world
economy.

Issues Affecting Specific Industries

The high oil price is expected to boost investment in both upstream and
downstream oil and gas activities.

The recession in the chemical and power generation industries is now


subject to less uncertainty since recovery is underway. The high oil price,
which affects feedstock prices, is now less of a problem for the chemicals
industry since prices can be raised.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 57

Issues Affecting Particular Countries

China

The future annual time path of the Chinese pump market is one of the most
uncertain features of the forecast. In last year's report market growth was
shown to be stable, averaging 7.5% per year. But new data on investment in
China shows the extraordinary investment boom 2002-2005, which clearly
cannot be sustained. The pump market is expected to peak in 2006 and to
decline through 2007-2010 before growing again in 2011.

Japan

Prospects for pump market growth in Japan are still subject to considerable
uncertainty because macro-economic prospects are difficult to predict. In
this instance, however, a high proportion of pump demand is for
replacement purposes and so macro-economic developments have a less
critical impact on the pump market. Pump demand fell consistently 20002004, but a recovery was believed to be underway in 2005.

Japanese market size, as measured by official government statistics, appears


larger, relative to the USA, than might be expected on the basis of
population. This issue is explored on the next page.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 58

Pump Market Size: USA and Japan Compared

Measurement of pump market size between countries is affected by


definitions. One major difference is whether or not prime movers are
included, but the inclusion or exclusion of pump auxiliaries can also make a
significant difference.

Japanese pump market size relative to the USA, given the difference in
population, appears to be higher than expected on the basis of government
statistics. The table below shows the market for complete pumps in both
countries.

One reason for the large Japanese market size is the massive investment in
water and sewerage, which is now unwinding after a decade of rapid
growth. We might expect Japanese market size to be around $2.8 billion
after investment in water and sewerage reaches US levels per head of
population.
Complete Pump Market Size: USA & Japan Compared, inc. prime movers
Year 2003, $ million

USA

Japan

Production

3487

3653

less Export

957

740

plus Import

879

470

plus prime movers excluded

450

Total Market

3859

3383

583

1157

of which:
Water & Sewerage

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 59

Pump Production and Pump Market Size:


Euroump Member Countries and the USA

Pump market size in each country was determined by reference to pump


production, exports and imports, and also independent EIF estimates of the
market by end use industry. With the Europump data there are some
uncertainties regarding the definitions of pump production and trade; in
addition, the Europump market data does not distinguish parts from complete
pumps.

EIF estimates of the complete pump market are, in some instances,


significantly different from the figures (implied) for complete pumps in the
Europump Annual Report. One reason is that the Europump Market Report
data does not sub-divide exports and imports between complete pumps and
pump parts; also the definition of exports and imports, in many cases, is
not consistent with the definition of production, so the contribution of net
exports to market size is mis-stated. Another factor is the inconsistent
treatment of prime movers, which are included in production values for
some, but not all, countries.

Even allowing for all these measurement difficulties some unexplained


anomalies remain. The most notable concerns production and market size
for Italy. Italy has large production of 'other pumps', which may include
products not strictly conforming with our definition of the pump industry.
In addition, Italy is a major world supplier of 'white goods'; we have
excluded the pump component of these products from pump market size.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 60

Europump Member Countries and USA


Production of Complete Pumps
and EIF estimates of Pump Market Size
$ millions in 2003

Country

Pump Production *

Austria

186

EIF estimate of
Pump Market
107

Belgium

107

144

Czec Republic

29

25

Denmark

452

90

Finland

89

82

France

781

829

Germany

2,104

1,210

Italy

1,790

581

Netherlands

79

217

Russia

155

384

Spain

311

354

Sweden

373

171

Switzerland

133

135

UK

751

714

USA

3,836

3,859

* based on original equipment in Europump Market Report 2005

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 1

III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

Introduction

The pump market by product type is conventionally analysed by a technical


classification which distinguishes product groups, such

as centrifugal,

reciprocating or rotary, and by sub-divisions within these groups. These are the
classifications provided by official government statistics and are the subject of
this section.

The technical classification, while useful and also relevant to production


economics, does not provide insight into the pump market by end use. This is
because a pump described with a technical classification can be used in end use
industries with markedly different economic prospects. For example,
submersible pumps are used mainly by the water and sewerage industry and in
construction dewatering, end uses which can have markedly different trends.

An alternative approach to pump market segmentation by product type is to


consider pump demand by application within each end use industry, which is
the subject of Section IV. This alternative approach has more bearing on pump
marketing than the technical classification. Within the pump industry the terms
'standard', 'engineered' and 'special purpose' pumps are commonly used, but
have no basis in official government statistics. Section IV shows how these
terms can be related to pump demand by end use industry.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 2

Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region


and Product Type

The market forecasts provided in this report relate to complete pumps,


including prime movers, excluding parts. The valuation is at ex-factory cost,
so that costs of pump installation are excluded.

The chart on the next page summarises the forecasts by

product type.

Centrifugal pumps are, of course, the largest pump type, followed by


measuring and dispensing. The reciprocating pump market is a little larger
than rotary.

The choice of pump type depends in the pump application, which in turn
depends on the end use industry, but most pump types are used in most end
use industries. Consequently, growth rates for the different pump types are
fairly similar at the broad level of aggregation shown in the chart. There are
trends involving some substitution between pump types in certain
applications and also within pump types in the same application. Examples
within centrifugal are submersible versus end suction pumps, and within
rotary peristaltic versus other rotary pumps. Technological change also
affects demand by pump type by changing pump applications: environmental
investment being a good example.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 3

World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type


$ million 2003 prices

Centrifugal

Reciprocating

Measuring/dispensing

Domestic & other

Rotary

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 4

The Market for Pump Parts

Pump were considered for the first time in last year's EIF World Pump
Market Report. We are still not including parts in the market forecasts
because factors governing the aftermarket are complex and forecasts require
quite different methods compared with forecasts for complete pumps.

This year's report includes, for the first time, parts supplied by China, which
have been added to figures shown last year (sum of parts supplied by the EU,
USA and Japan).

The data on pump parts for the major industrial countries, in particular,
should be treated with caution. This is because largely complete pumps may
be imported, although they may be classified as parts.

The table on the next page shows imports of pump parts in 2005 ranked by
country within each world region, together with the compound average
annual percentage growth rate (CAGR) 2005/2002. The most notable positive
growth rates were for China, Thailand, Mexico and Argentina.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 5

Imports of Pump Parts - Rankings by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2005

CAGR
2005/2002

WEST EUROPE
Germany

COUNTRY

$ Million
2005

CAGR
2005/2002

AFRICA/MID. EAST
418

-6.4

Kuwait

20

4.2

France

326

-3.1

Nigeria

15

-7.5

United Kingdom

249

Morocco

14

2.7

Italy

221

Israel

12

1.5

7.5

Spain

141

-5.5

Syrian Arab Republic

10

-1.6

Netherlands

136

-6.2

Iraq

10

-18.3

Austria

104

4.3

Oman

1.8

Belgium

97

0.6

Tunisia

-7.2

Sweden

68

1.5

Jordan

-16.7

Denmark

56

-1.3

Bahrain

-4.4

Switzerland

54

-0.4

Norway

45

11.9

Finland

34

2.1

Ireland

25

21.1

China

256

25.4

Portugal

22

-0.6

Korea - South

179

7.8

Greece

22

-0.2

Japan

115

14.1

Singapore

106

5.9

India

90

13.9

Thailand

66

26.2

EAST EUROPE

ASIA

Czech Republic

154

8.4

Australia

63

-2.9

Poland

83

0.1

Taiwan

59

-5.2

Hungary

68

8.6

Malaysia

31

5.7

Russia

62

-1.5

Indonesia

26

0.6

Romania

26

31.1

Hong Kong

23

-17.6

Bulgaria

7.3

Philippines

10

5.4

Pakistan

10

-3.0

New Zealand

4.2

Sri Lanka

26.0

AFRICA/MID. EAST
Turkey

94

14.8

Saudi Arabia

63

-5.5

Iran

55

-8.0

United Arab Emirates

54

-1.6

South Africa

46

1.6

United States

746

8.8

Algeria

42

4.1

Canada

351

10.2

Egypt

37

-0.4

Mexico

98

26.1

Qatar

23

22.1

Brazil

76

6.8

Libya

22

7.4

Venezuela

38

4.0

Argentina

17

21.2

Colombia

14

18.5

AMERICA

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 6

Centrifugal Pumps

The proportion of pumps used in the different end use industries largely
determines the variation in demand for pumps of different types. This is
because we do not believe that there is significant substitution between
different pump types (at the level of detail presented in this report), within a
particular end use. There are, however, major variations in the types of pump
used in the different end use industries, and demand trends can differ
significantly between industries. Moreover, the relative importance of
different industries varies markedly from country to country. Consequently,
the extent of sub-division of demand between different end uses is an
important part of market analysis, and this is discussed in detail in Section IV.

The market for centrifugal pumps totals around $12bn. These pumps are used
by all industries; Page III 7 shows that oil, gas, chemicals and power together
account for around 40% of the total.
The table on Page III 8 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA,
Canada, Japan, plus China, India, South Korea, Mexico and Russia.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 7

Centrifugal Pumps by End Use and World Region

$m 2003 Prices

END USE
General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$m 2003 Prices

WORLD REGION
West europe

East europe

Africa/mid.east

Asia

America

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 8

Centrifugal Pump Market - Ranking by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST

Germany

757

2.2

Libya

21

6.0

France

492

2.5

Oman

20

6.0

Italy

389

2.1

Israel

20

6.3

United Kingdom

354

2.0

Iraq

20

10.8

Spain

179

2.8

Morocco

18

4.4

Sweden

127

2.0

Jordan

15

4.9

Netherlands

113

2.0

Bahrain

13

6.2

Norway

89

1.0

Nigeria

12

4.9

Belgium

76

2.4

Syrian Arab Republic

10

3.9

Austria

71

1.4

Tunisia

6.2

Switzerland

66

0.6

Denmark

56

2.7

Finland

47

1.3

ASIA

Ireland

39

3.1

Japan

1973

1.4

Greece

37

2.9

China

1736

-4.6

Portugal

18

3.6

India

342

7.8

Korea - South

282

2.6

Taiwan

166

3.3

Australia

151

5.4

EAST EUROPE
Russia

277

6.5

Thailand

73

6.8

Poland

105

4.8

Singapore

64

3.8

Romania

36

7.1

Indonesia

37

7.6

Hungary

33

5.2

Hong Kong

26

2.5

Czech Republic

16

5.9

Malaysia

22

7.3

Bulgaria

10

7.5

Pakistan

21

4.2

Philippines

13

4.4

New Zealand

12

-1.7

Sri Lanka

AFRICA/MID. EAST
Saudi Arabia

146

7.2

Iran

139

7.4

United Arab Emirates

105

7.3

Turkey

88

6.5

Qatar

71

2.3

United States

2393

2.9

South Africa

67

4.0

Mexico

253

4.7

Kuwait

51

7.0

Canada

251

2.6

Algeria

36

3.8

Brazil

125

4.5

Egypt

35

2.9

Venezuela

56

6.4

Argentina

42

3.8

Colombia

28

5.1

AMERICA

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 9

Reciprocating Pumps

The market for reciprocating pumps amounts to around $2.6 billion. Page III
10 shows that 67% of demand arises in West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan
(about the same percent as centrifugal).
Page III 10 also shows that oil and gas and chemicals, pulp and paper account
for 43% of total demand.

The table on Page III 11 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA,
Canada, Japan, plus China, Thailand, Australia, South Korea, Brazil and
India.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 10

Reciprocating Pumps by End Use and World Region

$m 2003 Prices

END USE
General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$m 2003 Prices

WORLD REGION
West europe

East europe

Africa/mid.east

Asia

America

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 11

Reciprocating Pump Market - Ranking by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE
Germany

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST
96

2.2

Qatar

2.6

France

94

2.5

Kuwait

8.0

United Kingdom

83

2.0

Nigeria

4.4

Italy

56

2.1

Morocco

4.7

Spain

54

2.8

Libya

4.2

Netherlands

32

2.0

Tunisia

5.7

Sweden

28

2.0

Bahrain

6.2

Belgium

18

2.4

Syrian Arab Republic

Austria

15

1.3

Jordan

Switzerland

13

0.9

Iraq

14.9

Finland

12

1.0

Denmark

12

2.6

Norway

10

1.6

Portugal

3.1

China

494

-4.6

Ireland

2.9

Japan

155

1.4

Greece

2.3

Australia

88

5.4

Korea - South

55

2.6

Thailand

50

6.7

Hong Kong

27

2.6

EAST EUROPE

ASIA

Russia

35

6.5

Taiwan

24

3.2

Poland

23

4.9

Singapore

23

3.8

Romania

10

7.0

Indonesia

17

7.6

Hungary

5.1

India

16

7.9

Czech Republic

5.8

New Zealand

12

-1.7

Bulgaria

6.8

Pakistan

Malaysia

6.9

Philippines

5.4

United States

544

2.9

AFRICA/MID. EAST
Turkey

58

6.5

South Africa

40

4.1

United Arab Emirates

29

7.4

Saudi Arabia

23

7.4

Iran

21

7.4

AMERICA

Oman

6.2

Brazil

241

4.5

Egypt

2.8

Mexico

95

4.7

Algeria

3.5

Canada

76

2.6

Israel

6.5

Venezuela

39

6.3

Argentina

16

3.6

Colombia

13

5.1

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 12

Rotary Pumps

The world market for rotary pumps amounts to around $2 billion, with the
advanced industrial countries (West Europe, USA/Canada and Japan)
accounting for 69% of the total.
Page III 13 shows that oil and gas, chemicals, pulp and paper and power
generation account for 39% of total demand.
The table on Page III 11 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA,
Canada, Japan, plus China, Thailand, Australia, South Korea, Brazil and
India.
The table on Page III 14 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA,
Canada, and Japan, plus China, Brazil, India and Mexico.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 13

Rotary Pumps by End Use and World Region

$m 2003 Prices

END USE
General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$m 2003 Prices

WORLD REGION
West europe

East europe

Africa/mid.east

Asia

America

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 14

Rotary Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE
France

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST
80

2.5

Oman

6.6

Italy

78

2.0

Morocco

5.2

Germany

78

2.2

Kuwait

5.4

United Kingdom

75

2.0

Jordan

6.6

Spain

49

2.8

Tunisia

8.4

Netherlands

29

2.0

Syrian Arab Republic

Sweden

25

2.1

Qatar

Norway

24

0.9

Libya

-3.0

Switzerland

19

0.6

Iraq

14.9

Austria

19

1.4

Belgium

16

2.2

Finland

12

1.0

Denmark

11

2.6

Ireland

2.9

China

291

-4.6

Portugal

3.5

Japan

103

1.3

Greece

2.8

Korea - South

51

2.6

Australia

32

5.6

India

30

8.0

Taiwan

29

3.3

EAST EUROPE

ASIA

Russia

21

6.5

Thailand

13

7.0

Hungary

15

5.3

Singapore

12

3.9

Poland

12

4.8

Indonesia

7.9

Czech Republic

11

6.1

Hong Kong

1.9

Romania

7.3

Philippines

4.5

Bulgaria

7.9

Pakistan

7.2

New Zealand

Malaysia

Sri Lanka

AFRICA/MID. EAST
South Africa

22

4.0

Iran

13

7.4

Turkey

11

6.6

6.3

AMERICA

Algeria

11

3.8

United Arab Emirates

10

7.0

United States

309

3.0

Saudi Arabia

7.3

Mexico

173

4.7

Nigeria

5.1

Brazil

110

4.4

Israel

6.3

Canada

42

2.6

Egypt

4.7

Venezuela

18

6.0

Argentina

13

3.5

Colombia

6.0

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 15

Measuring & Dispensing Pumps

Measuring and dispensing pumps include pumps used in petrol filling


stations. Total market size is around $850 billion, with 65% of demand being
located in the advanced industrial countries.
Page III 16 shows that some 57% of measuring and dispensing pumps are
used in oil and gas, chemicals, pulp paper and power generation.
The table on Page III 17 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA,
Canada, and Japan, plus China, Pakistan, Russia, Poland, Mexico and Brazil.

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 16

Measuring & Dispensing Pumps by End Use and World Region

$m 2003 Prices

END USE
General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$m 2003 Prices

WORLD REGION
West europe

East europe

Africa/mid.east

Asia

America

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 17

Measuring & Dispensing Pumps - Rankings by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST

Germany

54

2.1

Egypt

4.9

United Kingdom

44

2.0

Algeria

3.3

Italy

35

2.1

Tunisia

5.5

France

28

2.4

Oman

6.6
5.6

Spain

20

2.8

Kuwait

Norway

14

1.0

Qatar

Belgium

12

2.2

Jordan

Netherlands

11

1.8

Iraq

Switzerland

Sweden

Greece

3.0

Austria

1.5

Ireland

2.9

8.4

2.4
ASIA

Finland

1.9

Japan

65

Denmark

2.9

China

56

-4.5

Portugal

2.7

Pakistan

23

4.4

Korea - South

15

2.4

Malaysia

10

7.4

India

10

7.8

EAST EUROPE
Russia

23

6.5

Indonesia

7.8

Poland

22

4.9

Australia

5.9

Romania

16

7.2

Taiwan

3.7

Hungary

5.7

Philippines

4.5

Bulgaria

7.6

Singapore

3.8

Czech Republic

7.0

Thailand

6.5

New Zealand

Hong Kong

AFRICA/MID. EAST
South Africa

21

4.3

Saudi Arabia

12

7.0

Turkey

6.2

Nigeria

5.0

United Arab Emirates

7.3

AMERICA
United States

156

3.0

Libya

5.6

Mexico

29

4.5

Morocco

4.4

Canada

29

2.6

Iran

7.2

Brazil

16

5.6

Israel

6.8

Argentina

13

3.5

Colombia

11

5.7

Venezuela

4.9

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 18

Domestic & Other Pumps

Total market size is around $4 billion, with most of demand being located in
the advanced industrial countries.
Page III 19 shows that at high proportion of pumps are used by general
industry (which includes domestic).
The table on Page III 20 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. The
largest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA,
Canada, and Japan, plus China, Australia, South Korea, India, Mexico and
Brazil

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 19

Domestic & Other Pumps by End Use and World Region

$m 2003 Prices

END USE
General industry

Water resources

Power generation

Chemicals

Oil, gas, refining

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$m 2003 Prices

WORLD REGION
West europe

East europe

Africa/mid.east

Asia

America

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 20

Domestic & Other Pumps - Rankings by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST

Germany

293

2.2

Israel

13

6.3

United Kingdom

172

1.9

Tunisia

10

5.7

France

160

2.5

Nigeria

10

5.0

Spain

78

2.8

Syrian Arab Republic

4.4

Italy

58

2.1

Kuwait

6.5

Sweden

41

2.0

Jordan

5.8

Netherlands

41

2.0

Qatar

2.5

Switzerland

36

0.6

Bahrain

7.0

Belgium

22

2.4

Iraq

11.0

Austria

20

1.4

Oman

4.4

Norway

18

0.7

Greece

17

2.9

Finland

15

1.5

Denmark

13

2.8

Japan

684

1.3

Portugal

12

3.4

China

274

-4.6

Ireland

12

3.0

India

204

7.9

Australia

127

5.4

Korea - South

60

2.6

Thailand

32

6.8

EAST EUROPE

ASIA

Poland

36

4.8

Taiwan

30

3.3

Russia

34

6.5

Singapore

27

3.9

Romania

19

7.1

Hong Kong

16

2.5

Hungary

5.0

New Zealand

14

-1.5

Czech Republic

5.9

Malaysia

14

7.3

Bulgaria

7.9

Philippines

4.6

Indonesia

7.7

Pakistan

6.0

Sri Lanka

AFRICA/MID. EAST
South Africa

43

4.0

Saudi Arabia

42

7.3

United Arab Emirates

41

7.3

Turkey

38

6.5

Iran

37

7.4

United States

591

2.9

Algeria

32

3.9

Mexico

145

4.7

Egypt

27

3.0

Canada

122

2.6

AMERICA

Libya

22

6.2

Brazil

72

4.3

Morocco

18

4.3

Venezuela

30

6.5

Argentina

28

4.0

Colombia

19

5.0

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 1

IV

THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Introduction

This section of the report discusses the pump market by end use industry.
Analysis by end use is more relevant to marketing than the analysis by
product which was discussed in Section III. However, it should be borne in
mind that the end use analysis is less reliable statistically because
information on pump usage by end use is limited.

Nevertheless, differences between countries in both market size and market


growth by end use are often so large that the statistical problem of
measurement is of secondary importance. The difference between the
advanced industrial countries and developing countries is a good example. In
the advanced countries market size and growth reflects maturity and a largely
replacement market (except perhaps for the effect of environmental
legislation). In the developing countries the installed base is small, so
replacement demand is limited and market growth rates (unless constrained
by poverty) can be expected to be higher than in the industrial countries.

Another factor is that market size and growth by end use is strongly
influenced by resource endowment in particular countries, particularly for oil
& gas, chemicals, pulp and paper and mineral mining/processing.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 2

Summary of Pump Market Size by End Use Industry

The table on the next page summarises results for each of the end use
industries identified in the report.

World market growth averages 2.5% p.a. 2006-2011, with growth by end
use ranging from 0.3% p.a. to 5% p.a.

One of the main factors influencing growth rates by industry, for the world
as a whole, is the proportion of demand arising from the advanced
industrial countries relative to other countries. This is because saturation of
demand leads to relatively slow growth in the industrial countries.
Developing countries place more emphasis on infrastructure, which boosts
demand in end uses such as oil, gas, chemicals and power generation.

Last year's report expected growth to average 3.5% a year 2005-2010. The
slower growth in this year's report reflects revised data for China, and
assumptions about the future course of growth in China, coupled with the
impact of high oil prices which results in slower growth in the major
industrial countries.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 3

The World Pump Market by End Use Industry **


Complete pumps, including prime movers, excluding parts
$ million
average 2006-2008
(2003 prices)

Volume growth
% p.a. 2006-2011

Oil/gas-offshore *

698

4.0

Oil/gas-onshore +

1140

3.4

Oil refining

1369

4.2

Basic chemicals

1705

3.5

Other chemicals

697

3.0

Food

654

1.3

Drink

348

1.4

Pharmaceuticals

254

1.8

Power-gas & combined cycle

468

4.0

Power-hydro

244

1.9

Power-nuclear

202

1.5

Power-coal/oil

980

4.5

Harbours/docks/canals

65

5.0

Shipbuilding & repair

345

4.6

Metal manufacturing

893

0.3

Mineral processing

753

2.6

Pulp and paper

732

3.0

Other industry

3130

1.7

Sewage treatment

2062

1.6

Water treatment

1383

1.1

Building services

1491

1.6

Construction dewatering

1102

1.7

Domestic

1806

2.8

Total Market

21789

2.5

** sum of 63 countries
* excludes offshore Africa and Caspian Sea
+ includes liquefied natural gas

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 4

Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry

The approach involves breaking down estimates of the pump market in


different end uses into applications within each end use according to the
characteristics of the pumps required. These applications can be grouped
together to show market sizes for engineered, standard and special purpose
pumps, which we summarise at the beginning of this section. Later parts of
this section show market sizes by end use and for applications within each
end use.

The following table lists the end uses and applications identified in the
report.

Characteristics of the Identified Applications

The table column headed range provides a broad classification into three
categories which are mainly determined by the application and pump
technology. These are:

ENG Engineered Pumps


STD Standard Pumps
SPE Special Purpose Pumps

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 5

Characteristics of Identified Applications


ENDUSE

APPLICATION

RANGE

SIZE

CLIENTS

CONTRACT

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION

MAIN OIL LINE & TRANSFER PUMPS

ENG

(SEPARATELY FOR ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE)

METERING/ DOSING

SPE

FIRE PUMPS

ENG

INJECTION PUMPS

ENG

SEA WATER LIFT PUMPS

ENG

CHEMICALS-BASIC

CHEMICALS-DOWNSTREAM

OIL REFINING

POWER-COAL/OIL

ENG = engineered STE = standard


Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = Small

GAS SCRUBBING

SPE

LNG/NGL PUMPS

SPE

EFFLUENT TREATMENT PUMP

SPE

UTILITY

STD

METERING/ DOSING

SPE

CHEMICAL PROCESS

STD

CLEAR LIQUIDS

STD

SPECIAL PURPOSE

SPE

UTILITY

STD

CHEMICAL DOSING

SPE

CHEMICAL PROCESS

STD

CLEAR LIQUIDS

STD

METERING

SPE

SPECIAL PURPOSE

SPE

UTILITY

STD

REFINERY PROCESS

ENG

WATER CIRCULATING

STD

BOILER FEED & BOOSTER

STD

SPECIAL PURPOSE

SPE

LPG PUMPS

SPE

UTILITY

STD

COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-100% DUTY

ENG

COAL/OIL-BOILER FEED-50% DUTY

ENG

COAL/OIL-COOLING WATER

ENG

COAL/OIL-BOOSTER

ENG

COAL/OIL-HEATER DRAINS

ENG

COAL/OIL-CONDENSATE RECOVERY

ENG

COAL/OIL-LUBE OIL SYSTEM

ENG

COAL/OIL-BOILER CIRCULATION

ENG

COAL/OIL-ASH/FGD PUMPS

ENG

COAL/OIL-AUXILIARY SERVICE

STD

SPE = special purpose


Clients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50
Contract A = over 500,000, B = 250-500,000, C = under 250,000

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 6

Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued

ENDUSE

APPLICATION

POWER-COMBINED CYCLE GAS

POWER-HYDROELECTRIC

POWER-NUCLEAR

PULP & PAPER

METAL MANUFACTURE

ENG = engineered STE = standard


Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = Small

RANGE

SIZE

CLIENTS

CONTRACT

GAS-FEED WATER

ENG

GAS-CIRCULATION

ENG

GAS-COOLING WATER

ENG

GAS-CIRCULATORS

STD

GAS-AUXILIARY SERVICE

STD

HYDRO-MAIN PUMPS

STD

HYDRO-OTHER PUMPS

STD

NUCLEAR-PRIMARY COOLANT

ENG

NUCLEAR-COOLING WATER

ENG

NUCLEAR-REACTOR BOILER FEED

ENG

NUCLEAR-SAFEGUARD & ASSOCIATED

SPE

NUCLEAR-AUXILIARY SERVICE

STD

CHEMICAL DOSING

SPE

LIQUOR

STD

PULP & PAPER STOCK

ENG

CONDENSATE

STD

FAN

STD

WOOD CHIP

STD

SPECIAL PURPOSE

SPE

UTILITY

STD

DESCALING/MILL SCALE/FLUSHING

STD

CIRCULATING WATER

STD

WATER TREATMENT

STD

SPECIAL PURPOSE

SPE

UTILITY

STD

SPE = special purpose


Clients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50
Contract A = over 500,000, B = 250-500,000, C = under 250,000

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 7

Characteristics of Identified Applications - continued

ENDUSE
FOOD

DRINK

APPLICATION

RANGE

SIZE

CLIENTS

CONTRACT
C

HYGIENIC

SPE

OTHER

STD

HYGIENIC

SPE

OTHER

STD

PHARMACEUTICALS

HYGIENIC

SPE

OTHER

STD

MARINE

PROPULSION

SPE

BILGE

STD

BALLAST

STD

FIRE FIGHTING

STD

OTHER SHIP PUMPS

STD

DOCK DEWATERING

STD

MINERAL MINING/PROCESSING

DEWATERING

STD

MINE DRAINAGE

STD

DREDGE

STD

GRAVEL

STD

SLURRY

STD

JETTING

STD

SPECIAL PURPOSE

SPE

WATER SUPPLY

RESERVOIR

STD

SEWERAGE

SEWERAGE

STD

BUILDING SERVICES

HEATING/VENT/AIR COND INDUSTRIAL

STD

HEATING/VENT/AIR COND DOMESTIC

STD

OTHER INDUSTRIES

CONSTRUCTION DEWATERING

STD

CHEMICAL PROCESS

STD

ENG = engineered STE = standard


Size A = Large, B = Medium, C = Small

SPE = special purpose


Clients A = over 500, B = 50-500, C = under 50
Contract A = over 500,000, B = 250-500,000, C = under 250,000

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 8

Other columns in the table are entitled size, clients and contract. These
are graded A, B or C according to the criteria given in the footnote to the table.
Size refers to the output capacity of the pump. Clients indicates whether
there are a large number of potential customers in an application. Contract
refers to the typical size of a major pump contract. These three parameters
have a fundamental effect on marketing methods and the nature of
competition.

Engineered Pumps
Engineered pumps are generally of

large size,

and built to a high

specification. On the specification side, conformity with API 610 is judged to


place pumps in the engineered category. Oil refinery process pumps are
included for that reason, rather than because of size. The main other end uses
employing engineered pumps are oil and gas production and

power

generation. A characteristic of the market for engineered pumps is that major


contracts are multi-million. There are a relatively small number of clients in
the major areas of application, whether these are oil companies or power
generation plant operators.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 9

Standard Pumps

The main characteristic of standard pumps is that they are produced in


large numbers at relatively low unit cost. Size ranges are wide, from small
to medium and large. Modern computer-aided manufacturing techniques
are employed to maximise economies of scale. Within the category there
are wide ranges of materials, from cast iron to stainless steel and exotic
alloys. Standard pumps may be standard for particular applications, so
that submersible pumps can be thought of as standard to the water supply
application, rotary lobe pumps are standard for food processing, although
both types of pump have applications outside these major areas.

The classification of pumps as standard can change over time. For


example, circulating pumps might have been thought of as special purpose
thirty years ago. The growth of domestic central heating provided a market
that mass production methods could supply effectively. Conversely,
standard pumps might be used for a particular application, but give way to
the development of special purpose pumps, where the greater cost can be
justified on the grounds of efficiency.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 10

Standard pumps are used in all applications. The number of clients in a


particular application can be relatively few (e.g. oil and gas, power
generation), or vast, as in the case of heating, ventilating and air
conditioning. The average value of major contracts is much smaller than for
engineered pumps, but can be substantial for large chemical or food
processing plants.

Special Purpose Pumps

Special purpose pumps are required where standard pumps cannot provide
an efficient solution. They are produced in relatively small numbers by
specialist companies and command a price premium over standard pumps.
Manufacturers of special purpose pumps could provide standard pumps, but
because they cannot achieve the same economies of scale as the specialist
standard pump manufacturers, they cannot compete on price grounds.

Manufacturers of special purpose pumps usually have a large number of


customers. This is because there are applications for their products across
all end uses. An additional factor is that as process plants become smaller
(and so more numerous), their products become more diversified and
require specialist production techniques.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 11

Average values of typical major contracts are relatively small. Relatively


high marketing costs exist because of the need to service a large number of
clients. This encourages special purpose pump manufacturers to add value
by supplying systems, rather than bare pumps. Examples of applications for
special purpose pumps are dosing, metering, handling mixtures of gases and
liquids, spraying chemicals etc.

Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps

The distinction between these three broad groups is of interest because it is


highly relevant to the market segmentation faced by companies producing
pumps with different technologies. The chart below shows the percent
breakdown of the world market. Engineered accounted for 20% ($3.8
billion), special purpose pumps 12% ($2.3 billion) and standard pumps 68%
($12.9 billion).

Engineered
20%

Standard
68%

Special
12%

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 12

Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps

The chart below shows market sizes for engineered pumps The major
markets are in oil and gas production, oil refining and power generation.

Power-nuclear

Pulp & paper

Power-gas

Oil offshore

Power-coal/oil

Refining

Oil Onshore

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Market Size, Average 2006-2008, Engineered Pumps, $m 2003 prices

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

1000

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 13

Market Sizes for Standard Pumps

Standard pumps are used across virtually all end uses. The largest
are other industry, domestic,

building services, and basic

chemicals.

Drink
Power-coal/oil
Power-hydro
Other chemicals
Shipbuilding
Refining
Food
Pulp & paper
Mineral processing
Metal Manfg.
Construction
Basic chemicals
Building
Domestic
Other industry
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Market Size, Average 2006-2008, Standard Pumps, $m 2003 prices

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

3500

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 14

Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps

Special purpose pumps are used in industries where mixing, blending,


dosing etc requirements are significant. The largest markets are in basic
chemicals, other chemicals, food and drink, oil refining, pharmaceuticals
and pulp and paper.

Oil-offshore
Shipbuilding
Power-nuclear
Metal manf;
Oil-onshore
Pulp & paper
Pharmaceuticals
Refining
Drink
Food
Other chemicals
Basic chemicals

100

200

300

400

500

Market Size, Average 2006-2008, Special Purpose Pumps, $m 2003 prices

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

600

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 15

OIL & GAS PRODUCTION AND REFINING

Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries

Rankings for the market for complete pumps are shown in the table on the
next page. The US is by far the largest market, followed by Russia, Canada
and China. Norway and the UK lead in West Europe.

Africa & Middle East have a number of large markets, led by UAE, Iran,
Kuwait Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

In Asia, China apart, the largest markets are in India, Japan and Australia.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use - Page IV 16

Oil, Gas Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST

NORWAY

71

1.3

KUWAIT

16

4.5

UNITED KINGDOM

59

4.1

IRAQ

16

14.0

GERMANY

46

1.3

SOUTH AFRICA

13

5.0

FRANCE

46

1.6

LIBYA

14

6.6

ITALY

42

2.1

BAHREIN

14

4.7

SPAIN

32

4.1

TUNISIA

17.6

NETHERLANDS

30

0.9

SYRIA

3.4

SWEDEN

3.0

JORDAN

3.7

GREECE

2.4

BELGIUM

3.2

DENMARK

1.5

AUSTRIA

15.7

SWITZERLAND

-3.4

ASIA

PORTUGAL

3.7

CHINA

239

-5.5

FINLAND

1.9

JAPAN

97

5.6

IRELAND

3.7

AUSTRALIA

50

4.0

KOREA - SOUTH

36

3.1

INDIA

34

5.8

SINGAPORE

29

3.7

EAST EUROPE
RUSSIA

171

6.3

TAIWAN

27

6.6

POLAND

23

10.9

THAILAND

21

7.6

ROMANIA

13

14.6

MALAYSIA

18

11.2

HUNGARY

10

6.1

INDONESIA

15

9.1

CZECH REPUBLIC

0.3

PAKISTAN

11

3.4

BULGARIA

13.4

PHILIPPINES

4.9

NEW ZEALAND

-4.4

HONG KONG

2.4

874

4.2

AFRICA/MID. EAST
QATAR

78

1.6

IRAN

75

7.5

SAUDI ARABIA

65

3.1

UNITED ARAB

67

7.7

ALGERIA

37

4.4

AMERICA
UNITED STATES

EGYPT

24

2.1

MEXICO

273

2.7

TURKEY

25

11.5

CANADA

122

2.8

NIGERIA

21

0.8

VENEZUELA

53

2.1

OMAN

19

6.5

BRAZIL

38

11.1

COLOMBIA

26

5.3

ARGENTINA

20

1.3

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 17

Oil and Gas Production

We sub-divide the market into offshore and onshore. Results by world region
and application (annual average 2006-2008) are shown on Pages IV 19 and
IV 20 respectively.

Regional demand is determined by the location of crude oil supplies. The


most important areas are USA/Canada, Latin America,Middle East, China,
West Europe. It may seem surprising that Latin America ranks above the
Middle East in market size, but this is explained by the exceptionally low
cost of developing oil in the Middle East.
Market Size, average 2006-2008, Oil & Gas Production, $ million 2003 prices

USA/Canada
Latin America
Middle East
China
West Europe
Russia
Africa
Pacific Rim
Other Asia
Other E. Europe
India
Japan

100

200

300

400

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

500

600

700

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 18

Oil & Gas Production - market change 2006-2011

The chart below shows that we expect the largest increases in the demand for
pumps will arise in USA/Canada, the Middle East and Latin America. West
Europe shows a small growth, boosted by high oil prices, although demand
from this region is in long-term decline. Note that figures for Other East
Europe do not include Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, where demand is known to
be growing rapidly. The countries included in the figures for Africa exclude
offshore Angola and Equatorial Guinea.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Oil & Gas, $M 2003 prices


120
100
80
60
40
20

er
ic
a
A
m

ad
a

A
si
a

U
S/
C
an

R
im

O
th
er

Pa
ci
fic

Ja
pa
n

In
di
a

C
hi
na

Ea
st
id
M

ro
pe
Eu
E.

A
fr
ic
a

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

La
tin

-60

th

-40

R
us
si
a

.E

-20

ur
op
e

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 19

ONSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES


Annual average 2006-2008

Main oil
line

Metering/
dosing

Fire pumps

Injection

Gas
scrubbing

West European Total

13.4

1.3

5.1

2.6

1.3

2.1

25.8

Russia

42.7

4.1

16.4

8.2

4.1

6.5

82.0

Other Eastern Europe

10.0

1.0

3.8

1.9

1.0

1.5

19.3

Middle East

82.2

7.9

31.6

15.8

7.9

12.6

158.2

Africa

28.6

2.8

10.9

5.5

2.8

4.4

54.9

China

73.6

7.1

28.3

14.2

7.1

11.3

141.5

Japan

5.9

0.6

2.3

1.2

0.6

0.9

11.4

India

1.4

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.2

2.7

Pacific Rim

12.3

1.1

4.8

2.4

1.1

2.0

23.8

Other Far East

11.3

1.1

4.3

2.2

1.1

1.8

21.8

USA & Canada

200.2

19.3

77.0

38.5

19.3

30.8

385.0

Other America

111.4

10.7

42.8

21.5

10.7

17.1

214.3

World Total

593.1

57.1

227.9

114.3

57.1

91.2

1140.7

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

Utility

Total

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 20

OFFSHORE OIL/GAS REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES


Annual average 2006-2008

Main oil
line

Metering/
dosing

Fire pumps

Injection

Sea water
lift

Gas
scrubbing

Utility

Total

West European Total

20.0

5.0

25.0

10.0

25.0

2.9

12.0

99.6

Russia

1.8

0.5

2.3

0.9

2.3

0.3

1.1

9.1

Other Eastern Europe **

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Middle East

30.2

7.6

37.9

15.1

37.9

4.6

18.2

151.2

Africa *

4.8

1.2

6.0

2.4

6.0

0.7

2.9

24.0

China

3.1

0.8

4.0

1.6

4.0

0.5

1.9

15.7

Japan

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

India

2.2

0.5

2.7

1.1

2.7

0.3

1.3

10.9

Pacific Rim

5.6

1.4

7.1

2.9

7.1

0.9

3.4

28.2

Other Far East

4.7

1.2

5.9

2.4

5.9

0.7

2.8

23.7

USA & Canada

38.7

9.7

48.4

19.4

48.4

5.8

23.2

193.4

Other America

28.4

7.2

35.5

14.2

35.5

4.3

17.0

142.1

World Total

139.6

35.0

174.8

70.0

174.8

20.9

83.9

698.1

** n.b countries covered exclude Caspian Sea area


* n.b. excludes offshore African countries

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 21

Oil Refining

There are many factors influencing the market for pumps in oil refining.
Traditionally, industrialised countries have imported crude oil and refined it
themselves. Developing countries with oil resources now wish to expand
capacity to add value to their oil exports. However, pump demand is also
influenced strongly by continuous upgrading of refining capacity and by new
environmental legislation. The chart below shows the pattern of world demand.
The breakdown by application is given in the table on Page IV 23.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Oil Refining, $ million 2003 prices

USA/Canada
West Europe
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Russia
Japan
Latin America
China
Other E. Europe
Africa
India
Other Asia

100

200

300

400

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

500

600

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 22

Oil Refining - Market Change 2006-2011

The most important growth occurs in USA/Canada, Middle East, Pacific Rim
and West Europe. Growth in West Europe is the result of investment in
environmental facilities stemming from legislation and also a doubling of
investment by Total.

The recent extremely high oil prices, coupled with shortages of refining
capacity have influenced our estimates of market change from 2006 to 2008.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Oil Refining, $M 2003 prices


140
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100
80
60
40
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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 23

OIL REFINING REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES


Annual average 2006-2008

Refinery
process

West European Total

Water
circulating

Special
purpose

Utility

Total

149.9

25.0

37.6

37.6

249.9

Russia

55.2

9.2

13.8

13.8

92.0

Other Eastern Europe

24.3

4.1

6.1

6.1

40.6

Middle East

61.9

10.4

15.4

15.4

103.2

Africa

16.1

2.7

4.1

4.1

26.8

China

37.5

6.2

9.4

9.4

62.4

Japan

55.1

9.2

13.8

13.8

91.8

India

13.5

2.3

3.4

3.4

22.5

Pacific Rim

67.4

11.2

16.9

16.9

112.4

Other Far East

10.7

1.8

2.7

2.7

17.9

USA & Canada

283.7

47.3

70.9

70.9

472.8

Other America

46.0

7.7

11.5

11.5

76.7

821.3

137.1

205.4

205.4

1369.0

World Total

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 24

CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

It is important to make a clear distinction between basic chemicals and other


chemicals. Basic chemicals consist of large scale organic and inorganic plants.
Other chemicals consist of all other chemical plants, including
pharmaceuticals, dyestuffs, agrochemicals, synthetic resins, paints, synthetic
rubber, industrial gases etc.

The two sectors have major differences in terms of the number of companies
involved, underlying investment trends

and pump requirements. Basic

chemicals are subject to greater economic cycles than downstream chemicals


because they experience wide fluctuations in commodity prices and because
the industry is more exposed to international competition.

The world pattern of investment between basic chemicals and other


chemicals is also very different. Demand for basic chemicals in the Western
industrialised world has reached saturation but demand for certain types of
other chemicals continues to grow. In the developing industrialised countries
the first priority has to be the growth of basic chemicals capacity, before
downstream plants can be established.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 25

Chemical Industry Ranking by 63 Countries

Rankings by market size for complete pumps in the chemical industry are
shown in the table on the next page.

The US, Japan, Germany, China and India are clear leaders. Saudi Arabia,
Iran and Kuwait are large markets in Africa & Middle East. Other large
markets in Asia are found in South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. In Europe,
excluding Germany, the leading markets are in Russia, France, Switzerland
and the UK

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use - Page IV 26

Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE
GERMANY

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST
150

1.5

EGYPT

1.8

FRANCE

51

2.3

OMAN

-2.6

SWITZERLAND

50

3.7

LIBYA

5.9

UNITED KINGDOM

43

4.1

MOROCCO

6.4

ITALY

35

3.2

TUNISIA

4.0

SPAIN

25

3.9

SYRIA

5.9

NETHERLANDS

22

2.4

QATAR

-4.4

IRELAND

16

4.5

IRAQ

9.1

BELGIUM

15

3.3

AUSTRIA

13

-6.3

DENMARK

12

4.5

SWEDEN

3.1

NORWAY

1.5

ASIA

GREECE

6.7

CHINA

318

-5.5

PORTUGAL

3.1

JAPAN

310

3.7

FINLAND

3.3

INDIA

138

9.3

KOREA - SOUTH

77

2.6

TAIWAN

60

2.2

THAILAND

49

8.0

EAST EUROPE
RUSSIA

41

8.8

SINGAPORE

28

-0.4

POLAND

17

7.6

INDONESIA

17

8.8

HUNGARY

11

4.5

MALAYSIA

12

4.6

BULGARIA

7.4

AUSTRALIA

11

-0.2

ROMANIA

11.7

NEW ZEALAND

-7.7

CZECH REPUBLIC

1.2

PAKISTAN

9.4

PHILIPPINES

5.7

HONG KONG

2.6

AFRICA/MID. EAST
SAUDI ARABIA

75

7.9

IRAN

70

8.9

UNITED ARAB

34

11.6

TURKEY

24

3.6

JORDAN

18

5.2

UNITED STATES

310

2.4

SOUTH AFRICA

16

3.8

VENEZUELA

55

2.5

KUWAIT

15

-1.4

MEXICO

37

7.9

ALGERIA

10

4.9

BRAZIL

25

11.2

ISRAEL

4.9

CANADA

21

1.0

ARGENTINA

17

3.3

AMERICA

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 27

Basic Chemicals

The chart below shows that the largest markets are in USA/Canada, West
Europe, Japan, Middle East, Pacific Rim and China.

The breakdown by application is shown on Page IV 29.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Basic Chemicals, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
USA/Canada
Japan
Middle East
Pacific Rim
China
India
Latin America
Russia
Other E. Europe
Africa
Other Asia

50

100

150

200

250

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

300

350

400

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 28

Basic Chemicals - Market change 2006-2011

The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected in
the Middle East, India, Japan, West Europe and the Pacific Rim. The
Chinese market is expected to fall from the very high level in 2006.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Basic Chemicals, $M 2003 prices


100
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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 29

BASIC CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES


Annual average 2006-2008

Chemical
process

West European Total

Clear liquids

Metering/
dosing

Special
purpose

Utility

Total

210.5

17.6

36.1

70.3

16.5

350.9

Russia

18.8

1.6

3.2

6.2

1.5

31.3

Other Eastern Europe

17.5

1.5

3.0

5.9

1.4

29.1

114.1

9.5

19.6

38.1

8.9

190.1

Africa

16.7

1.4

2.9

5.6

1.2

27.8

China

103.5

8.6

17.8

34.5

8.1

172.4

Japan

145.7

12.1

25.0

48.6

11.4

242.8

India

63.2

5.3

10.9

21.0

5.0

105.3

110.8

9.3

19.0

36.9

8.7

184.6

Other Far East

9.2

0.8

1.6

3.1

0.7

15.3

USA & Canada

153.7

12.8

26.4

51.3

12.1

256.2

Other America

60.0

5.0

10.3

20.1

4.7

99.9

1023.5

85.6

175.7

341.5

80.1

1705.9

Middle East

Pacific Rim

World Total

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 30

Other Chemicals

The chart below shows that the largest markets are in West Europe, China,
USA/Canada, Middle East, Pacific Rim and Japan. The demand for products
of 'other' chemicals is significantly dependent on high living standards - e.g.
cosmetics, toiletries etc. Other Chemicals is a particularly large consumer of
rotary pumps.

The breakdown by application is shown on Page IV 31.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Other Chemicals, $ million 2003 prices

China
West Europe
USA/Canada
Middle East
Japan
Pacific Rim
India
Latin America
Russia
Other E. Europe
Africa
Other Asia

20

40

60

80

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

100

120

140

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 31

Other Chemicals - market change 2006-2011

The chart below shows that the largest increases in demand are expected
in the Middle East, India, the Pacific Rim and West Europe. The Chinese
market is expected to decline from the very high level in 2006.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Other Chemicals, $M 2003 prices


40
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20
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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 32

OTHER CHEMICALS - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES


Annual average 2006-2008

Chemical
process

Clear
liquids

Metering/
dosing

Special
purpose

Utility

Total

West European Total

35.2

5.9

17.9

52.7

5.3

117.0

Russia

4.1

0.7

2.1

6.1

0.6

13.7

Other Eastern Europe

3.8

0.8

2.0

5.7

0.7

12.8

Middle East

24.8

4.2

12.6

37.1

3.9

82.6

Africa

3.5

0.6

1.8

5.2

0.5

11.6

China

36.2

6.0

18.5

54.3

5.7

120.7

Japan

24.0

4.0

12.3

36.0

3.8

80.0

India

13.8

2.3

7.1

20.7

2.2

46.0

Pacific Rim

23.3

3.8

11.9

34.9

3.6

77.5

Other Far East

2.1

0.4

1.0

3.0

0.4

6.7

USA & Canada

25.4

4.3

12.9

38.1

3.9

84.6

Other America

13.2

2.3

6.7

19.7

2.0

43.7

World Total

209.2

35.2

106.7

313.6

32.6

697.0

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 33

POWER GENERATION

Power generation is a large user of pumps for water cooling and transfer and
for high temperature and pressure applications. Plant technology has a major
bearing on pump usage, so it is necessary to sub-divide investment activity in
order to provide credible market forecasts.

We sub-divide pump requirements for power generation into:


a)

coal/oil fired

b)

combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration

c)

nuclear

d)

hydroelectric

Power generation for desalination (mainly concentrated in the Middle East)


is included in combined cycle, gas turbine, cogeneration.

Rankings of Complete Pump Market Size by 63 countries

The table on the next page shows rankings by market size in 2005. In Asia
the leading markets are China, Japan, India, and South Korea. In America the
US, Canada and Brazil lead. In West Europe the leaders are Germany,
France, Italy and the UK. Leading markets in East Europe are Russia and
Poland. Markets in Africa & Middle East are led by Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait and Iran.
European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use - Page IV 34

Power Generation - Rankings by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE
GERMANY

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST
66

2.4

MOROCCO

3.8

FRANCE

47

1.5

ALGERIA

8.3

UNITED KINGDOM

43

7.6

ISRAEL

9.7

ITALY

24

3.2

TUNISIA

-6.7

SPAIN

17

1.4

OMAN

-4.7

FINLAND

15

-6.7

LIBYA

4.7

NETHERLANDS

13

2.9

BAHREIN

11.0

NORWAY

1.3

JORDAN

5.2

DENMARK

10

2.2

IRAQ

16.5

SWEDEN

2.0

GREECE

3.6

AUSTRIA

5.9

PORTUGAL

4.6

ASIA

BELGIUM

1.9

CHINA

307

-5.5

SWITZERLAND

-5.1

JAPAN

156

3.9

IRELAND

3.1

INDIA

103

6.6

KOREA - SOUTH

60

1.8

AUSTRALIA

55

10.1

THAILAND

39

5.1

EAST EUROPE
RUSSIA

61

5.6

TAIWAN

28

3.0

POLAND

41

0.6

PAKISTAN

27

4.1

ROMANIA

24

-2.3

SINGAPORE

29

9.9

CZECH REPUBLIC

12

2.0

HONG KONG

16

2.6

HUNGARY

4.3

INDONESIA

14

6.0

BULGARIA

5.5

PHILIPPINES

12

5.3

MALAYSIA

2.9

SRI LANKA

4.4

NEW ZEALAND

AFRICA/MID. EAST
TURKEY

49

11.5

SAUDI ARABIA

44

14.5

SOUTH AFRICA

27

-0.8

AMERICA

IRAN

24

3.6

UNITED ARAB

13

2.5

UNITED STATES

98

3.2

EGYPT

13

1.9

MEXICO

83

6.7

SYRIA

12

4.3

BRAZIL

60

8.0

KUWAIT

8.6

CANADA

47

2.7

NIGERIA

4.4

COLOMBIA

17

4.8

VENEZUELA

20

16.7

ARGENTINA

10

2.9

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 35

Power Generation - Market Size

Requirements by power type, application and world region are tabulated on


Pages IV 37 to IV 40 respectively. Overall market sizes for power generation
are shown in the chart below. China ranks behind West Europe.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Power Generation, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
China
Pacific Rim
Latin America
Middle East
Japan
USA/Canada
India
Other Asia
Other E. Europe
Africa
Russia

50

100

150

200

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

250

300

350

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 36

Power Generation - change in market size 2006-2011

The main growth areas are Middle East and Latin America. China is expected
to decline from the very high level achieved in 2006.

High gas prices in the USA have led to a number of new coal-fired projects,
supported by US government subsidies for clean coal technology.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Power Generation, $M 2003 prices


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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 37

COAL/OIL FIRED POWER GENERATION


REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES
Annual average 2006-2008

Boiler feed
100% duty

Boiler feed
50% duty

Cooling

Booster

Condensate
Recovery

Lube
oil

Boiler
circulation

Ash/fgd

Auxiliary

West European Total

23.8

5.9

23.8

5.7

8.0

6.6

5.6

12.7

21.6

Russia

7.3

1.8

7.3

1.8

2.4

2.1

1.7

3.9

6.7

Other Eastern Europe

14.2

3.6

14.2

3.4

4.8

4.0

3.3

7.5

13.0

Middle East

23.4

5.9

23.4

5.6

7.9

6.7

5.4

12.5

21.3

Africa

9.8

2.5

9.8

2.4

3.3

2.7

2.3

5.3

8.9

China

24.4

6.2

24.4

5.8

8.2

6.9

5.7

13.0

22.2

Japan

16.7

4.2

16.7

4.0

5.6

4.7

3.9

8.9

15.2

India

14.5

3.7

14.5

3.5

4.9

4.1

3.4

7.7

13.2

Pacific Rim

22.1

5.5

22.1

5.3

7.5

6.3

5.2

11.8

20.2

Other Far East

13.6

3.4

13.6

3.2

4.6

3.8

3.2

7.2

12.4

USA & Canada

12.2

3.1

12.2

2.9

4.1

3.5

2.9

6.5

11.1

Other America

23.6

6.0

23.6

5.7

7.9

6.6

5.6

12.5

21.5

World Total

205.7

51.9

205.7

49.3

69.1

57.9

48.2

109.4

187.3

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 38

GAS TURBINE/COMBINED CYCLE/COGENERATION


REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES
Annual average 2006-2008

Boiler
feed

Circulating

Condensate
recovery

Cooling

Auxiliary

Total

West European Total

22.7

18.1

9.2

8.0

32.4

90.1

Russia

3.1

2.5

1.3

1.1

4.5

12.5

Other Eastern Europe

2.8

2.2

1.2

1.0

4.0

11.0

Middle East

10.3

8.2

4.1

3.6

14.6

40.5

Africa

5.0

3.8

2.0

1.8

7.1

19.4

China

8.8

7.1

3.5

3.2

12.7

35.3

Japan

7.9

6.3

3.2

2.8

11.3

31.4

India

6.8

5.5

2.7

2.4

9.8

27.4

Pacific Rim

19.1

15.2

7.6

6.8

27.4

76.1

Other Far East

5.3

4.2

2.2

1.9

7.7

21.2

USA & Canada

16.6

13.3

6.7

6.0

23.9

66.4

Other America

9.4

7.4

3.7

3.4

13.4

37.3

World Total

117.8

93.7

47.3

42.0

168.7

468.4

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 39

NUCLEAR POWER
REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES
Annual average 2006-2008

Primary
coolant

Cooling

Nuclear
reactor

Nuclear
safeguard

Total

West European Total

20.9

7.5

12.3

20.9

61.5

Russia

3.7

1.3

2.2

3.7

10.9

Other Eastern Europe

2.5

0.9

1.5

2.5

7.5

Middle East

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Africa

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.9

China

14.8

5.2

8.7

14.8

43.5

Japan

10.8

3.8

6.4

10.8

31.8

India

1.8

0.6

1.1

1.8

5.4

Pacific Rim

7.8

2.7

4.6

7.8

22.9

Other Far East

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.6

USA & Canada

4.8

1.7

2.8

4.8

14.0

Other America

1.2

0.4

0.8

1.2

3.7

World Total

68.8

24.4

40.6

68.8

202.5

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 40

HYDROELECTRIC POWER
REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES
Annual average 2006-2008

Main pumps

West European Total

Other pumps

Total

22.0

2.6

24.4

Russia

6.0

0.7

6.7

Other Eastern Europe

2.3

0.2

2.4

13.6

1.5

15.1

Africa

2.2

0.3

2.5

China

77.9

8.7

86.6

Japan

19.0

2.1

21.1

India

7.4

0.8

8.2

Pacific Rim

6.5

0.7

7.2

Other Far East

6.6

0.8

7.2

USA & Canada

10.3

1.2

11.5

Other America

46.3

5.1

51.3

220.3

24.7

244.3

Middle East

World Total

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 41

WATER & SEWERAGE

Water and sewerage is a large market for pumps, with radically different
market drivers for the advanced industrial countries compared with the
developing countries.

In the case of the industrial countries there are two major factors. The first is
the importance of environmental legislation in recent years and the second is
the trend towards privatisation of municipal utilities. The latter has also led to
growing horizontal integration of privately owned gas, electricity and water
companies.

Developing countries have radically different market prospects. Those with


natural resources or dynamism which supports the growth of export revenue
are able to afford the cost without entirely having to depend on international
aid: examples are China, Malaysia, India, oil exporters in the Middle East
etc.

Many other developing countries, and particularly those in Africa, depend


almost entirely on international aid to support investment in water and
sewerage. In these cases widespread corruption over several decades has
diverted monies intended for investment into private bank accounts outside
the countries in question. This has not only starved these countries of the
necessary investment in the past, it has inhibited the growth of funding in the
short term and this inhibition can be expected to persist over the forecast
European
Industrial Forecasting
Ltd 2006
period, despite UN initiatives
involving
targets for
water and sanitation.

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 42

Rankings of the complete pump market for Water & Sewerage


in 63 countries

Market size and growth rates are shown in the table on the next page.

Japan is the largest market, followed by the US and Germany. Japan has had
a massive investment programme in recent years, which is now unwinding
since water and sewerage standards have now reached the levels in other
advanced industrial countries.

China is the largest market in the developing world, followed by India.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Uset - Page IV 43

Water & Sewerage - Rankings by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST

GERMANY

262

3.9

NIGERIA

11.0

UNITED KINGDOM

182

0.2

IRAN

3.7

FRANCE

158

2.9

ALGERIA

5.5

ITALY

106

2.6

TUNISIA

-5.6

SPAIN

78

2.8

SYRIA

4.6

NETHERLANDS

36

2.9

QATAR

10.5

BELGIUM

23

3.5

OMAN

14.9

SWITZERLAND

20

-0.8

JORDAN

3.7

SWEDEN

20

2.1

IRAQ

-9.3

AUSTRIA

19

2.5

DENMARK

16

3.3

NORWAY

13

0.6

FINLAND

10

1.6

IRELAND

0.7

JAPAN

1017

-0.9

GREECE

2.7

CHINA

215

-5.5

PORTUGAL

3.9

INDIA

66

7.2

AUSTRALIA

41

3.8

KOREA - SOUTH

21

2.7

TAIWAN

15

3.3

EAST EUROPE

ASIA

RUSSIA

31

6.4

THAILAND

11

5.5

POLAND

30

5.3

HONG KONG

11

2.3

ROMANIA

15

5.0

SINGAPORE

3.8

HUNGARY

11

4.8

NEW ZEALAND

0.5

CZECH REPUBLIC

11.2

PAKISTAN

4.0

BULGARIA

8.4

PHILIPPINES

2.1

MALAYSIA

11.6

INDONESIA

9.9

SRI LANKA

AFRICA/MID. EAST
LIBYA

22

6.4

SAUDI ARABIA

16

1.3

UNITED ARAB

13

5.6

TURKEY

0.7

KUWAIT

10

9.5

UNITED STATES

626

1.9

SOUTH AFRICA

6.0

BRAZIL

64

0.1

ISRAEL

5.6

MEXICO

45

6.0

MOROCCO

3.5

CANADA

47

2.9

EGYPT

1.8

ARGENTINA

20

5.6

COLOMBIA

10

4.8

VENEZUELA

16.0

AMERICA

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 44

Water & Sewerage - Market Size by World Region

The chart below shows market size (annual average 2006-2008). West Europe
Japan, and USA/Canada account for a high proportion of the market in the
identified countries. Some developing countries with low income levels are, in
aggregate, a significant market for pumps in water and sewerage because of
the importance of international aid, but many in Africa, Asia and Latin
America are excluded because this report covers the top 63 economies.

Page 90 sub-divides market sizes between water and sewerage.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Water & Sewerage, $ million 2003 prices

Japan
West Europe
USA/Canada
China
Latin America
Middle East
Pacific Rim
India
Other E. Europe
Other Asia
Russia
Africa

200

400

600

800

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

1000

1200

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 45

Market Change for Water and Sewerage

The chart below shows market change 2006-2011. Generalised growth


across all world regions reflects the requirement for improved sewage
treatment standards in the industrialised world as well as the need for basic
facilities in developing countries. The Chinese market is expected to decline
from the high level achieved in 2006.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Water & Sewerage, $M 2003 prices


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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 46

WATER & SEWERAGE


PUMP REQUIREMENTS - AVERAGE 2006-2008
$ million 2003 Prices

Water

Sewerage

West European Total

393.0

589.8

Russia
Other Eastern Europe

13.3
26.5

19.6
39.8

Middle East
Africa

40.2
11.3

50.0
16.8

China
Japan
India
Pacific Rim
Other Far East

78.9
406.9
28.7
29.7
22.7

118.4
604.0
42.9
44.4
33.9

USA & Canada


Other America

272.5
59.4

413.6
88.9

World Total

1383.2

2062.0

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 47

GENERAL INDUSTRY

General industry covers all pump applications outside the industries already
considered and, in most instances, demand in particular countries is closely
related to trends in population and GDP per capita, rather than the
availability of natural resources. However, there are two exceptions: mineral
mining/processing and pulp and paper, because the availability of natural
resources is clearly important in these instances.

In this section we consider markets in the following end use industries:

Mineral Mining/Processing
Pulp & Paper
Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals
Metal Manufacture
Marine
Building Services
Construction Dewatering
Other Industry (includes agriculture, coal mining, engineering & vehicles,
textiles, building materials, other manufacturing)
Domestic

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 48

Ranking of the Market Size for Complete Pumps in General Industry


for 63 Countries

The table on the next page shows that the largest markets are in the major
industrial countries. China, South Korea, India, Russia and Brazil also rank
high.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use - Page IV 49

General Industry - Rankings by 63 Countries


$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth rates
COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

WEST EUROPE
GERMANY

COUNTRY

$ Million
2006

CAGR
2011/2006

AFRICA/MID. EAST
754

1.8

TUNISIA

15

3.2

FRANCE

554

2.5

KUWAIT

17

12.6

ITALY

408

1.7

OMAN

10

6.6

UNITED KINGDOM

401

1.5

LIBYA

10

4.9

SPAIN

226

2.6

SYRIA

2.3

SWEDEN

182

1.8

IRAQ

4.4

NETHERLANDS

125

1.9

NIGERIA

12.2

BELGIUM

93

1.9

JORDAN

3.7

AUSTRIA

85

0.4

BAHREIN

8.6

SWITZERLAND

67

-1.2

QATAR

15.3

FINLAND

62

2.6

NORWAY

57

0.5

DENMARK

55

2.4

GREECE

44

2.7

CHINA

1773

-4.1

IRELAND

41

2.6

JAPAN

1403

1.8

PORTUGAL

26

3.2

KOREA - SOUTH

269

2.7

INDIA

262

8.0

AUSTRALIA

251

5.0

TAIWAN

126

3.1

EAST EUROPE

ASIA

RUSSIA

85

6.4

THAILAND

52

6.8

POLAND

87

4.0

HONG KONG

48

2.6

ROMANIA

34

9.5

SINGAPORE

37

1.3

HUNGARY

25

5.7

INDONESIA

31

6.7

CZECH REPUBLIC

10

12.2

NEW ZEALAND

27

0.1

BULGARIA

7.9

MALAYSIA

19

5.5

PHILIPPINES

-0.7

PAKISTAN

11

4.3

SRI LANKA

2.1

AFRICA/MID. EAST
SOUTH AFRICA

127

4.7

TURKEY

98

3.2

UNITED ARAB

63

5.6

IRAN

42

6.7

ALGERIA

34

2.3

UNITED STATES

2085

2.7

MOROCCO

31

4.5

BRAZIL

377

3.3

EGYPT

30

4.3

CANADA

285

2.5

SAUDI ARABIA

29

4.1

MEXICO

255

5.3

ISRAEL

27

6.7

ARGENTINA

46

4.9

COLOMBIA

23

4.9

VENEZUELA

18

11.9

AMERICA

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 50

Mineral Mining and Processing

This end use excludes coal mining, which is included in other


industry. The pattern of world demand for pumps, shown in the chart
below, is determined mainly by the availability of natural resources.
China, Other Asia and Latin America are important for this reason. Note
that our 63 countries exclude some significant producers in Africa and
Latin America.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Mineral Processing etc., $ million 2003 prices

China
Other Asia
Latin America
USA/Canada
Africa
West Europe
Russia
India
Middle East
Other E. Europe
Pacific Rim
Japan

20

40

60

80

100

120

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

140

160

180

200

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 51

Mineral Mining & Processing - change in market size 2006-2011

The chart below shows the importance of Other Asia (mainly Australia),
Latin America, Africa and US/Canada for increases in demand. Our
market change estimates are dependent on the scale of major new projects.
Minor revamps are not covered, so there is a tendency for underestimation
of market potential in West Europe, Japan and USA/Canada.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Mineral Processing etc, $M 2003 prices


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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 52

MINERAL MINING & PROCESSING


PUMP REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION - $M 2003 PRICES
Annual average 2006-2008

Dewatering

Drainage

Gravel/dredge

Slurry

Jetting

Total

West European Total

22.6

9.4

3.7

5.8

5.5

47.0

Russia

21.8

9.1

3.6

5.6

5.3

45.5

Other Eastern Europe

6.8

2.8

1.1

1.7

1.6

14.2

Middle East

13.2

5.6

2.1

3.4

3.3

27.9

Africa

37.6

15.8

6.3

9.6

9.1

78.4

China

83.0

34.6

13.8

21.3

20.2

173.0

Japan

1.1

0.5

0.2

0.3

0.3

2.3

India

16.4

6.8

2.7

4.2

4.0

34.1

Pacific Rim

2.0

0.9

0.3

0.6

0.6

4.6

Other Far East

58.1

24.3

9.7

14.9

14.1

121.2

USA & Canada

46.1

19.2

7.7

11.8

11.2

96.0

Other America

52.3

21.8

8.7

13.3

12.7

108.9

World Total

361.0

150.7

60.0

92.4

88.0

753.0

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 53

Pulp and Paper

Although markets for pulp are predominantly in world regions where natural
resources are concentrated, i.e. Scandinavia, USA/Canada, demand for pumps
for paper production is spread across all industrialised countries. This is
reflected in the chart below, which shows average market size 2006-2008.

Page IV 55 shows the breakdown by application (average 2006-2008)

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Pulp & Paper, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
USA/Canada
Japan
China
Latin America
Pacific Rim
India
Other E. Europe
Africa
Other Asia
Middle East
Russia

50

100

150

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

200

250

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 54

Pulp & Paper - Market Change 2006-2011

The chart below shows that Latin America, USA/Canada, West Europe, and
Japan are the largest growth areas.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Pulp & Paper, $M 2003 prices


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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 55

PUMPS FOR THE PULP & PAPER INDUSTRY


BY APPLICATION - AVERAGE 2006-2008 - $M 2003 PRICES

Metering/
dosing

Liquor

Stock

Special
purpose

Utility

Total

West European Total

8.8

90.4

48.4

35.2

37.5

220.4

Russia

0.2

2.5

1.3

1.0

1.0

6.0

Other Eastern Europe

0.9

10.0

5.4

3.9

4.2

24.4

Middle East

0.2

2.9

1.5

1.0

1.1

7.2

Africa

0.5

6.8

3.6

2.5

2.8

16.6

China

3.8

38.8

20.8

15.1

16.1

94.5

Japan

4.4

44.9

24.1

17.5

18.6

109.3

India

1.0

10.7

5.7

4.2

4.4

26.0

Pacific Rim

1.1

11.7

6.2

4.5

4.9

28.6

Other Far East

0.5

4.5

2.4

1.7

1.9

11.1

USA & Canada

5.3

53.5

28.7

20.8

22.2

130.5

Other America

2.3

23.8

12.8

9.3

9.8

58.0

World Total

29.0

300.4

160.8

116.8

124.6

732.5

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 56

Food, Drink and Pharmaceuticals

Demand is divided between hygienic and other pumps. The total value of
hygienic pumps used by food, drink and pharmaceuticals is estimated at around
$460 million, of which hygienic rotary lobe is the most important pump type,
with a world market of around $150 million (exc. parts). The breakdown
between hygienic and other pumps is given on Page IV 58. West Europe is
shown to be a much larger market that USA/Canada. Although the West
European population is larger, the main explanation is that food processing is
carried out in much larger plants in North America where there are major
economies of scale.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Food, Drink and Pharmaceuticals, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
China
USA/Canada
Japan
Latin America
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Other E. Europe
Other Asia
India
Africa
Russia

50

100

150

200

250

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

300

350

400

450

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 57

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals - Change in Market Size 2006-2011

In absolute terms, most of the growth occurs in the industrialised


countries. The China market is expected to decline following
exceptionally rapid growth 2003-2006.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Food/Drink/Pharmaceuticals, $M 2003 prices


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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 58

PUMPS FOR FOOD, DRINK, PHARMACEUTICALS


BY APPLICATION - $m 2003 prices

Pharmaceuticalhygienic

Pharmaceuticalother

48.8

58.7

19.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

0.5

9.0

3.4

2.3

0.8

0.2

8.4

12.9

9.4

6.3

4.0

1.4

Africa

2.7

4.1

3.5

2.4

0.7

0.2

China

47.0

70.4

29.8

19.9

35.7

11.9

Japan

20.1

30.2

24.4

16.2

15.8

5.3

India

3.5

5.2

4.7

3.1

6.6

2.2

Pacific Rim

14.5

21.7

6.2

4.1

12.6

4.3

Other Far East

5.7

8.3

3.8

2.4

0.4

0.1

USA & Canada

33.1

49.7

31.2

20.9

51.4

17.2

Other America

10.4

15.6

19.6

13.0

1.9

0.6

World Total

261.7

392.8

209.3

139.4

190.2

63.6

Food-hygienic

Food-other

Drinkhygienic

107.3

161.1

73.1

Russia

3.0

4.5

Other Eastern Europe

6.0

Middle East

West European Total

Drink-other

N.B. Data for drink is included with food in the cases of Russia and China

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 59

Metal Manufacturing

Metal manufacturing is generally concentrated in the advanced industrial


countries. The chart below shows the largest market sizes (average 20062008) are in China, West Europe, and Japan. China ranks high because the
country is the world's largest steel producer.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Metal Manufacturing, $ million 2003 prices

China
West Europe
Japan
USA/Canada
Latin America
India
Pacific Rim
Other Asia
Middle East
Other E. Europe
Africa
Russia

50

100

150

200

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

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300

350

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 60

Metal Manufacturing - Market Change 2006-2011

Industrialisation requires basic infrastructure and then production of a wide


range of metal using products. Growth is expected in most world regions
excluding China.

Page IV 61 tabulates requirements by application.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Metal Manufacturing, $M 2003 prices


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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 61

METAL MANUFACTURING - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION


Average 2006-2008, $ million 2003 prices

Descaling
Mill Scale,
Flushing

Circulating
water

Water
treatment

Special
purpose

Utility

Total

West European Total

55.5

18.6

18.6

18.6

73.9

184.8

Russia

0.8

0.3

0.3

0.3

1.1

2.7

Other Eastern Europe

3.9

1.3

1.3

1.3

5.2

13.2

Middle East

5.2

1.8

1.8

1.8

6.8

16.9

Africa

3.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

4.1

10.1

China

91.1

30.4

30.4

30.4

121.5

303.8

Japan

31.8

10.6

10.6

10.6

42.3

105.9

India

16.3

5.5

5.5

5.5

21.7

54.4

Pacific Rim

9.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

12.4

30.9

Other Far East

6.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

8.2

20.5

USA & Canada

22.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

30.0

75.1

Other America

22.5

7.5

7.5

7.5

30.0

74.9

World Total

268.4

89.7

89.7

89.7

357.2

893.2

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 62

Marine

Marine is divided into ship production and repair and harbours, docks and
canals. Requirements by world region and application are tabulated on Page
IV 64 below.

Market size depends mainly on the production of civil and naval vessels (in
Europe, Japan and USA/Canada) and commercial ships (concentrated in
South Korea, Japan and, most recently, China). China is developing rapidly
for both civil and naval work.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Marine, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
China
Pacific Rim
USA/Canada
Japan
Latin America
Middle East
India
Africa
Other E. Europe
Russia
Other Asia

10

20

30

40

50

60

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

70

80

90

100

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 63

Marine - Changes in Market Size 2006-2011

The chart below shows significant growth in China and Pacific Rim. Growth
in the Pacific Rim reflects continued expansion of capacity in South Korea,
which, in 2005, overtook Japan in civil shipbuilding capacity.

The growth of capacity in China, however, is expected to exceed growth in


all other countries, and by 2010 China is expected to account for over 25%
of world civil shipbuilding. In addition, China is expanding capacity of
naval shipbuilding.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Marine, $M 2003 prices


45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5

Ja
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European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 64

MARINE - REQUIREMENTS BY APPLICATION


Average 2006-2008, $ million 2003 prices

Propulsion

Bilge

Ballast

Fire
fighting

Other ship

West European Total

13.2

28.2

14.1

19.3

5.0

15.3

Russia

0.8

1.7

0.8

1.2

0.3

0.9

Other Eastern Europe

1.2

2.5

1.2

1.7

0.5

1.3

Middle East

2.4

5.2

2.7

3.5

0.9

2.7

Africa

2.3

4.9

2.3

3.3

0.8

3.0

China

13.2

28.4

14.2

19.3

4.8

14.1

Japan

5.2

11.3

5.7

7.7

1.9

6.1

India

2.3

4.9

2.4

3.3

0.8

3.0

Pacific Rim

7.2

15.7

7.9

10.6

2.6

7.6

Other Far East

0.6

1.3

0.6

0.9

0.2

0.8

USA & Canada

6.3

13.5

6.8

9.2

2.3

7.1

Other America

2.5

5.4

2.7

3.8

0.9

2.9

World Total

57.0

123.0

61.4

83.7

21.0

64.9

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

Harbours/
docks/
canals

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 65

CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIES

This section covers pump requirements for construction related sectors,


i.e. industrial and domestic heating and ventilating and construction
dewatering. Also considered are pump requirements for all other
industries. These include coal mining, agriculture and other
manufacturing.

Page IV 73 tabulates pump requirements by world region

Building Services

This sector is otherwise known as industrial heating and ventilating.


Page IV 66 shows two charts, market size (annual average 2006-2008)
and the change in market size 2006-2011.

The largest markets are in West Europe, Japan and USA/Canada. These
three world regions are also the most important in terms of the change in
market size.

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 66

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Building Services, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
USA/Canada
Japan
China
Latin America
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Africa
Other Asia
Other E. Europe
India
Russia

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Market Change: 2006-2011, Building Services, $M 2003 prices


60
40
20

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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 67

Construction Dewatering

Pump requirements are closely related to the size of the construction


industry in each country. This is reflected by the chart below, which
shows market size (average for three years 2006-2008).

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Construction Dewatering, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
USA/Canada
Japan
China
Latin America
Pacific Rim
Middle East
Africa
Other Asia
India
Other E. Europe
Russia

50

100

150

200

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

250

300

350

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 68

Market Growth for Construction Dewatering

The chart below shows the forecast change in market size for the period
2006-2011. West Europe, Japan and USA/Canada are the only significant
growth areas, and, USA/Canada apart, this is not large in absolute terms.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Construction, $M 2003 prices


50
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European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 69

Domestic Pumps

The chart below shows annual average market size 2006-2008.

The market for domestic pumps is concentrated in the West Europe,


USA/Canada and Japan.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Domestic, $ million 2003 prices

West Europe
USA/Canada
Japan
China
Middle East
Latin America
Pacific Rim
Other Asia
India
Africa
Other E. Europe
Russia

100

200

300

400

500

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

600

700

800

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 70

Market Change for Domestic Pumps

The chart below shows the change in market size 2006-2011. Demand
growth is related to general trends in economic activity.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Domestic, $M 2003 prices


70
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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 71

Other Industries

Pump requirements are related to the size of industrial production. This is


reflected by the chart below, which shows that the largest markets are in
the industrialised world.

Market Size, average 2006-2008, Other Industries, $ million 2003 prices

USA/Canada
West Europe
China
Japan
Pacific Rim
Latin America
Middle East
India
Africa
Other E. Europe
Other Asia
Russia

100

200

300

400

500

600

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

700

800

900

1000

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 72

Market Change for Other Industry

The chart below shows the change in market size 2006-2011. This
shows that growth by world area is reflected by market size shown on
the previous page.

Market Change: 2006-2011, Other Industry, $M 2003 prices


150

100

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The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by End Use Industry - Page IV 73

CONSTRUCTION RELATED AND OTHER INDUSTRIES


PUMP REQUIREMENTS - AVERAGE 2006-2008
$ million 2003 Prices

Heating/vent.
Industrial

Heating/vent.
Domestic

Construction
dewatering

Other industry

403.8

700.9

289.8

834.7

5.5

5.2

3.9

7.0

Other Eastern Europe

22.4

17.6

16.2

36.2

Middle East

43.0

74.3

30.0

73.2

Africa

36.1

20.1

26.1

45.5

China

137.2

76.9

129.3

433.3

Japan

266.6

337.1

184.8

273.4

India

21.8

31.8

17.2

56.8

Pacific Rim

85.5

60.2

61.4

223.4

Other Far East

27.0

48.1

19.4

30.9

USA & Canada

347.1

370.3

255.5

917.1

Other America

95.2

63.5

69.2

199.2

1491.1

1806.0

1102.8

3130.7

West European Total

Russia

World Total

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006