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China:TheEclipseofthePolitburo|TheDiplomat

Image Credit: REUTERS/Carlos Barria

China: The Eclipse of the Politburo

Evidence suggests the Politburo Standing Committee is in decline, while the central party
bureaucracy gains more clout.
By Timothy Heath
January 26, 2015

ItiscommonlybelievedthatanincomingGeneralSecretaryoftheChineseCommunistParty(CCP)canenactwhatever
policieshechooses,solongasthetopsevenornineleadersofthePBSCagree.Iftheydonotagree,conventional
wisdompresumes,thenitisunlikelythattheleaderswillgetmuchdone.Such,atanyrate,wastheprevailingviewatthe
startofXiJinpingstenure.AnalysespublishedatthetimeofXisascensionconfidentlypredictedthathewouldprove
weakandachievelittle,duetothechallengeofgainingconsensusamongPBSCmembersofsuchvaryingbackgrounds.
Outcomesstarklyatoddswithsuchforecastshavedonelittletodeterexpertsfrommakingadditionalassertions
followingthesamelogic.ItisnothardtofindanalysestodaythatclaimXisanticorruptiondriveisfundamentallya
powergrabthatisalienatingfellowPBSCmembersandthussettingXiupforlongtermfailureoncehispeersturn
againsthim.
Ximaywellfailinhisreformagendaforavarietyofreasons,butlackofconsensusinthePBSCwillnotbetheprimary
driver.TheimportanceofconsensusforenactingpolicybetweenthetopsevenleaderswhocomprisethePBSCis
overstated.Consensusremainsnecessary,atleastonthesurface,forthemostimportantpolicyinitiativessuchasthe
pursuitofstructuralandsystemicreformsunderwhichthecurrentanticorruptiondriveisnestled.Inreality,though,
PBSCmembersareincreasinglyconstrainedintheirabilitytoundermineordrasticallychangethegeneraldirectionof
policy.Fortheoverwhelmingmajorityofthecountryspolicydirectives,whatreallycountsisthedegreeofconsensus
withinthecentralpartybureaucracy,orstafforganizations(i.e.,thekeystaffbodiesandorganizationsprimarilyin
theCentralCommittee,suchastheGeneralOffice,CentralPolicyResearchOffice,CentralPartySchool,Organization
Department,etc.)andbetweenthesamecentralpartystafforganizationsandtheGeneralSecretary.Individualswho
seektoanticipatethefuturetrajectoryofPRCpolicymakingwouldbewellservedtomasterthepubliclyavailable
documentsproducedbythesebureaucraciesinsupportoftheGeneralSecretary.
TheweakeningofthepowerofindividualPolitburoStandingCommitteemembersandthegrowingimportanceofthe
relationshipbetweentheGeneralSecretaryandthecentralsupportstaffowespartlytoXispersonalinitiative,but
primarilytomajor,longtermchangesinthenatureofCCPrule.Becausetheretreatfromrevolutionarypoliticshas
undercutthemostcompellingargumentforpartydictatorship,theCCPincreasinglybasesitslegitimacyontheclaimto
uniquelypossessasuperiorintellectualmethodologyitsMarxisttheorythatalonecanensuresoundgovernance
andChinasrejuvenationasagreatpower,aswellastheresultsgeneratedfromthissupposedlyinfalliblemethodology.
InthewordsofXiJinping,theCCPspoliticaltheoryistheonlycorrecttheory,theadherencetowhichaloneenables
thepartytouniteandleadthepeopletoachievenationalrejuvenation.
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WhiletheprincipleofinfallibilityhasalwaysbeenafeatureofthepartysLeninistnature,theoriginalrevolutionary
incarnationprovedmuchmoreamenabletotheusurpationofauthoritybymembersoftheleadershipelite.Afterall,
whenthelogicofapoliticaltheoryfavorsrevolutionaryoverthrow,authoritycanaccruetoanyonewillingtopromotethe
mostradicalvision.Indeed,chaosinMaoistChinafrequentlyowedtothisproblem,ascompetingpersonalitiesviedfor
themantleofrevolutionaryauthorityandtherebydrovegovernmentpolicyinthedirectionoftheirownpolitical
agendas.
Thepartyspursuitofamoretechnocraticstyleofpoliticsinrecentyearsretainstheprincipleofinfallibility,buthas
alsonarrowedandrestricteditsexpression.Toshoreuptheimpressionthatitspoliciesarederivedfromascientifically
rigorousintellectualmethodology,CCPmustinvestasmuchenergyelaboratingitstheorysystemofsocialismwith
Chinesecharacteristics,asitdoestodevelopsoundpoliciesthatmeettheneedsofitspeople.Consequently,themost
essentialindividualsandorganizationsintheCCParethosewhocanarticulatethesocialisttheorysysteminaclear,
consistent,andscientificmanner,aswellasthosewhocandevelopsoundpoliciesthatpromotethepartysobjectives
inamannerthatvalidatesthetheory.Itshouldbeapparentalreadythatahandfulofbusyindividuals,especiallythose
givenextremelybroadpolicyportfolios,lackthetimeandexpertisetocarryoutthiswork.Theindividualsbest
positionedtomeettheseneedsarethoseanalysts,theorists,staffmembers,andexpertswhoresideprimarilywithinthe
permanentorganizationsoftheCentralCommittee.Theseindividualscollaborateonacontinualbasistobuildthe
commonunderstandingaboutChinassituation,developtheoryconceptstoguidepolicy,andoutlinethetechnical
detailsofpolicytoshapeeliteopinionandsupportseniordecisionmakers.Themoreeffectivelythesestaff
organizationsdotheirjobs,theeasieritbecomesforthePolitburoStandingCommitteetoapprovetheir
recommendationsanddirecttheimplementationofpolicyaccordingly.Asaresult,theconsensusbuiltbythecentral
partybureaucracyunderthesupervisionoftheGeneralSecretaryhasprevailed,andwilllikelycontinuetoprevail,in
settingthecourseforthenationspolicies.
AnotherconsequencehasbeenanerosionofthepowerofindividualPBSCmembers.Theincreasinglyinstitutionalized
natureofthepoliticalsystemrequiresPBSCleadersandothereliteleaderstodeveloptheirownteamsoftheorists,
analysts,andpolicyexpertsiftheyaretodrivepolicyinadramaticallydifferentdirection.Chineseleadershaveshown
littleinclinationtoempowerindividualmembersofthePBSCtooverturntheconsensusbuiltbythecentralsupport
staffundertheGeneralSecretarysdirection.ThereductioninnumberofPBSCmembersfromninetoseven,atthestart
ofXistenure,suggeststhateventhenthepursuitofPBSClevelconsensuswasincreasinglyviewedasmoreofa
hindrancethanahelptoachievingpartygoals.Moredramatically,thecaseofZhouYongkangdemonstratesinavivid
fashionjusthowvulnerablemembersofthePBSChavebecome.Overall,thetrendinrecentyearshasbeentowardsa
strengtheningoftheGeneralSecretarysinfluence,andofthecentralsupportstaffastheprimaryinstrumentofhis
power.WhilethisconsolidationhasbecomemostapparentunderXi,inmanywayshistenurerepresentsan
intensificationoftrendswellunderwayintheHuera.Themostimportantofthesetrendsinclude:1)anexpansionand
elevationofthecentralpartybureaucracysroleinpolicymaking2)thesystematizationofthepartysideologyand
3)thestandardizationofthepartyspolicymakingprocesses.Thesereformshavegenerallystrengthenedthe
influenceofpoliticalandtechnicalexpertsinthecentralpartybureaucracyandconstrainedthepowerofindividual
PolitburoStandingCommitteeleaders.
ExpansionandelevationofCentralCommitteeorganizationsinpolicymaking.BothHuJintaoandXiJinping
investedconsiderabletimeandresourcestostrengthentheircontrolofthecentralsupportstaff.Theyalsoexpanded
andelevatedtheroleofthesestaffsinthepolicymakingprocess.TheintroductionofPolitburostudysessionsand
expandedmeetingsinthe2002timeframe,forexample,providedaregularvenueforpartyexpertstocoach,mentor,and
teachseniorleaders,afunctionmanagedbytheCentralPolicyResearchOffice(CPRO)andCentralCommitteeGeneral
Office.UnderXi,theCPROhasalsobeendesignatedtheadministratoroftheCentralReformOffice,whichmanagesthe
allimportantCentralLeadingGroupforDeepeningComprehensiveReform,whiletheGeneralOfficeadministersthe
NationalSecurityCommission.XihasalsoaddedtwodepartmentstotheCPROtohandletheexpansionin
responsibility.Similarly,whileheadoftheCentralPartySchool(CPS)fortenyearspriortohisascenttoGeneral
Secretary,Huoversawamajorexpansionoftheschool.XialsoservedforfiveyearsasdirectorofCPSpriortohisascent.
TheCPShasbecomeaprincipalthinktankforthepartystheorywork,aswellasthepremiertraininggroundforsenior
leaders.
Systematizationofpartytheory.In2004,Huoversawamajoroverhaulinpartyideologytorenderitmorefunctional
andpragmatic,resultinginthetheorysystemofsocialismwithChinesecharacteristics.Thismultiyeareffort
systematizedthevariouselementsofthepartyideology,keepingandrefiningthoseelementsthatcouldbeusefulforthe
newpolicyagendaanddiscardingthelessusefulparts.Theendresultwasamodernideologybettersuitedtoserving
theCCPsneedsasagoverningparty.However,ithasalsoempoweredexpertsintheCentralCommitteeastheresident
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authoritiesonhowtodefineandarticulateanincreasinglytechnical,systematic,andspecializedideology.
Standardizationofpartypolicymakingprocesses.Beginningin2002,thepartysawagreatexpansioninthenumbers
andtypesofCCPrules,policies,andprocedurestogovernmostaspectsofpartyactivity,toincluderecruitment,
promotion,evaluation,anddecisionmaking.Tosupportpolicymaking,the16thPartyCongressin2002also
introducedandstandardizedanumberofstrategicobjectives(zhanlemubiao),majorstrategictasks(zhongda
zhanlerenwu),policydocuments(suchastheannualDocumentNumberOneforruralreform),andhighlevel
trainingeventsaimedatforgingconsensusbehindthepolicyagendasetbythecentralleadership.Theprocessof
draftingkeystrategyandpolicydocuments,toincludePartyCongressreportsandPlenumdecisions,hasbecome
increasinglyroutinizedandtheworklargelyledbyexpertsinthecentralpartybureaucracy.Officialsofthecentralparty
bureaucracyalsomanagethetrainingandeducationofcadrestocarryouttheagendaaccordingly.In2003,forexample,
centralauthoritiesbegananannualtrainingseminarforthenationsprovincialandministeriallevelleadersinthe
mostimportanttheoreticalconceptsandpolicyprioritiesforthecomingyear.Theincreasingstandardizationofmany
ofthepartyspoliticalprocessesconstrainstheabilityofindividualleaderstodrivedramaticshiftsinpolicythrough
informal,behindthescenespoliticking.
Tobeclear,muchaboutChinesepoliticsremainspoorlyoronlysemiinstitutionalized.Secrecyandbehindthescenes
politickingshroudmanyofthemostsensitivepoliticalissues,suchastheselectionofindividualleadersandother
mattersofelitepolitics.Nevertheless,adecadeofideologicalandpoliticalreformhasresultedinastrongercentral
partybureaucracycapableofprovidingthecohesion,vision,anddepthofexpertiseneededtohelpseniorleaderscarry
outanexpandedpolicyagendaaimedatprovidingmoreeffectivegovernanceandrealizingChinasrejuvenation.The
relentlesspromotionofXiasthemostimportantleaderamonghispeers,andtheaccretionofpowerinthehandsofXi
throughthecreationoftheNationalSecurityCommissionandnumeroussmallleadinggroupstocarryoutstructural
reforms,representstheculminationofthesetrends.ThemoreXitakesonresponsibilitiesandnewpowers,afterall,the
morehedependsontheexperts,specialists,andofficialsofthecentralsupportstafftoprepareandoverseethepolicies
carriedoutunderhisdirection.Thestrengtheningofthecentralpartybureaucracyhasenabledthepartytowithstandthe
shocksoftheBoXilaicase,thearrestofseniorofficialssuchasZhouandformerCMCvicechairXuCaihou,andthe
turmoilgeneratedbythepervasiveanticorruptioncampaign.
TheevolvingpatternofpoliticssuggeststhatthecommonunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweentheGeneral
Secretary,PBSCmembers,andthecentralsupportstaffneedstoberefined.GeneralSecretaryXiandPBSCmembers
continuetoprovideoversightofallpolicywork.ThePBSCmembersalsoplayacriticalroleinhandlingdaytoday
decisionsfortheirrespectiveportfolios.However,thecentralpartybureaucracy,undertheGeneralSecretarys
leadership,largelydefinesthedefaultmodeofpolicythroughadensenetworkofmutuallyreinforcingtheory,analysis,
andcentraldirectives.PBSCmemberscontinuetoplayanimportantrolethroughparticipationinthecentralleading
groups,buttheprecisenatureoftheinteractionsremainshiddenfromview.Whatisclearisthattheconsensusforged
throughallofthisactivity,manifestedmostimportantlyinkeypolicydocumentssuchasspeechesbytheGeneral
SecretaryandinPartyCongressreportsandplenumdecisions,playsadecisiveroleinsettingChinaspolicyagenda.
AnalysisofsuchdocumentswillthereforelikelycontinuetoprovidethemostreliableinsightsintofuturetrendsofPRC
policy.
Ironically,justwhenthestudyofChineseofficialdocuments,politicalprocesses,andideologyproducedbythecentral
partybureaucracywasbecomingincreasinglyessentialtounderstandingPRCpolitics,muchoftheChinawatching
communityturneditsattentionelsewhere.Theprevailingmodeofanalysisremainsfocusedonthepersonalnetworks,
factions,interestgroups,princelingconnections,andindividualbackgroundsofPBSCmembers.Suchresearchhas
providedfascinatinginsightintothedynamicsofelitepoliticsandreaffirmedtheimportanceofpersonalnetworksin
PRCpolitics.ButthismodeofanalysishasprovidedlittleusefulinsightregardingtheprospectsforChinesepolicy.
Meanwhile,thefewarticlesthathaveattemptedtotacklekeyPRCpolicydocumentsmerelydemonstratehowmuchthe
studyofsuchsourceshasdeteriorated.Oneanalysispublishedin2012dismissedanalysisofPartyCongressreportsas
awasteoftime,assertingthatsucheventsserveaslittlemorethananexerciseintedioussloganeeringandin
pumpingupthepartyfaithful.ItconcludedthatobserverswouldneedtolookelsewhereforcluesastotheXi
administrationslikelypolicyagenda.Tellingly,thearticleofferednosuggestionastowherethatsuperiorsourceof
insightmightlie.
Nobettersourcehasemerged.Tomoreeffectivelyanticipatepolicydevelopments,observersshoulddeepentheirstudy
oftheanalysis,theory,andpolicydocumentsproducedbythecentralsupportstaffandfrequentlyissuedunderXis
name.ThegoodnewsisthatmanyofthemostrelevantandusefuldocumentsarewidelyavailableontheInternet.With
carefulstudyandmasteryofthesesources,analystshavewithintheirgraspthemeanstobetterunderstandPRC
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intentionsregardingstrategyandpolicy.
TimHeathisaseniordefenseandinternationalanalystattheRANDCorporation.Hehasoverfifteenyearsof
experienceasaChinaspecialistandistheauthorofthebook,ChinasNewGoverningPartyParadigm:Political
RenewalandthePursuitofNationalRejuvenation,publishedbyAshgate(2014).Thisarticlewasfirstpostedinthe
Sinocismnewsletter.

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