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Mathematics and Statistics

Sampling

Mathematics and Statistics

Reasons for Sampling


Sampling can save money.
Sampling can save time.
For given resources, sampling can broaden
the scope of the data set.
Because the research process is sometimes
destructive, the sample can save product.
If accessing the population is impossible;
sampling is the only option.

Mathematics and Statistics

Reasons for Taking a Census


Eliminate the possibility that by chance a
random sample may not be representative of
the population.

Mathematics and Statistics

Population Frame
A list, map, directory, or other source used to
represent the population
Overregistration -- the frame contains all members of
the target population and some additional elements
Example: using the chamber of commerce
membership directory as the frame for a target
population of member businesses owned by women.
Underregistration -- the frame does not contain all
members of the target population.
Example: using the chamber of commerce
membership directory as the frame for a target
population of all businesses.

Mathematics and Statistics

Random Versus Nonrandom


Sampling
Random sampling
Every unit of the population has the same probability of
being included in the sample.
A chance mechanism is used in the selection process.
Eliminates bias in the selection process
Also known as probability sampling

Nonrandom Sampling
Every unit of the population does not have the same
probability of being included in the sample.
Open to selection bias
Not appropriate data collection methods for most
statistical methods
Also known as nonprobability sampling

Mathematics and Statistics

Random Sampling Techniques


Simple Random Sample
Stratified Random Sample
Systematic Random Sample
Cluster (or Area) Sampling

Mathematics and Statistics

Simple Random Sample


Number each frame unit from 1 to N.
Use a random number table or a random
number generator to select n distinct
numbers between 1 and N, inclusively.
Easier to perform for small populations
Cumbersome for large populations

Mathematics and Statistics

Simple Random Sample:


Numbered Population Frame
01 Alaska Airlines
02 Alcoa
03 Ashland
04 Bank of America
05 BellSouth
06 Chevron
07 Citigroup
08 Clorox
09 Delta Air Lines
10 Disney

11 DuPont
12 Exxon Mobil
13 General Dynamics
14 General Electric
15 General Mills
16 Halliburton
17 IBM
18 Kellog
19 KMart
20 Lowes

21 Lucent
22 Mattel
23 Mead
24 Microsoft
25 Occidental Petroleum
26 JCPenney
27 Procter & Gamble
28 Ryder
29 Sears
30 Time Warner

Mathematics and Statistics

Simple Random Sampling:


Random Number Table
9
5
8
8
6
5
8

9
0
0
6
0
2
9

4
6
8
4
0
5
1

3
5
8
2
9
8
5

7
6
0
0
7
7
5

8
0
6
4
8
7
9

7
0
3
0
6
1
0

9
1
1
8
4
9
5

6
2
7
5
3
6
5

1
7
1
3
6
5
3

N = 30
n=6

4
6
4
5
0
8
9

5
8
2
3
1
5
0

7
3
8
7
8
4
6

3
6
7
9
6
5
8

7
7
7
8
9
3
9

3
6
6
8
4
4
4

7
6
6
9
7
6
8

5
8
8
4
7
8
6

5
8
3
5
5
3
3

2
2
5
4
8
4
7

9
0
6
6
8
0
0

7
8
0
8
9
0
7

9
1
5
1
5
9
9

6
5
1
3
3
9
5

9
6
5
0
5
1
5

3
8
7
9
9
9
4

9
0
0
1
9
9
7

0
0
2
2
4
7
0

9
1
9
5
0
2
6

4
6
6
3
0
9
2

3
7
5
8
4
7
7

4
8
0
8
8
6
1

4
2
0
1
2
9
1

7
2
2
0
6
4
8

5
4
6
4
8
8
2

3
5
4
7
3
1
6

1
8
5
4
0
5
4

6
3
5
3
6
9
4

1
2
8
1
0
4
9

8
6
7
9
6
1
3

Mathematics and Statistics

Simple Random Sample:


Sample Members
01 Alaska Airlines
02 Alcoa
03 Ashland
04 Bank of America
05 BellSouth
06 Chevron
07 Citigroup
08 Clorox
09 Delta Air Lines
10 Disney

N = 30
n=6

11 DuPont
12 Exxon Mobil
13 General Dynamics
14 General Electric
15 General Mills
16 Halliburton
17 IBM
18 Kellog
19 KMart
20 Lowes

21 Lucent
22 Mattel
23 Mead
24 Microsoft
25 Occidental Petroleum
26 JCPenney
27 Procter & Gamble
28 Ryder
29 Sears
30 Time Warner

Mathematics and Statistics

Stratified Random Sample


Population is divided into nonoverlapping
subpopulations called strata.
A random sample is selected from each
stratum.
Potential for reducing sampling error
Proportionate -- the percentage of thee sample
taken from each stratum is proportionate to the
percentage that each stratum is within the
population
Disproportionate -- proportions of the strata
within the sample are different than the
proportions of the strata within the population

Mathematics and Statistics

Stratified Random Sample:


Population of FM Radio Listeners
Stratified by Age
20 - 30 years old
(homogeneous within)
(alike)
30 - 40 years old
(homogeneous within)
(alike)
40 - 50 years old
(homogeneous within)
(alike)

Heterogeneous
(different)
between
Heterogeneous
(different)
between

Mathematics and Statistics

Systematic Sampling
Convenient and relatively
easy to administer
Population elements are an
ordered sequence (at least,
conceptually).
The first sample element is
selected randomly from the
first k population elements.
Thereafter, sample elements
are selected at a constant
interval, k, from the ordered
sequence frame.

k =

n
where:
n = sample size
N = population size
k = size of selection interval

Mathematics and Statistics

Systematic Sampling: Example


Purchase orders for the previous fiscal year
are serialized 1 to 10,000 (N = 10,000).
A sample of fifty (n = 50) purchases orders
is needed for an audit.
k = 10,000/50 = 200
First sample element randomly selected
from the first 200 purchase orders. Assume
the 45th purchase order was selected.
Subsequent sample elements: 245, 445, 645,
...

Mathematics and Statistics

Cluster Sampling
Population is divided into nonoverlapping
clusters or areas.
Each cluster is a miniature, or microcosm,
of the population.
A subset of the clusters is selected randomly
for the sample.
If the number of elements in the subset of
clusters is larger than the desired value of n,
these clusters may be subdivided to form a
new set of clusters and subjected to a
random selection process.

Mathematics and Statistics

Cluster Sampling
u

Advantages
More convenient for geographically dispersed
populations
Reduced travel costs to contact sample elements
Simplified administration of the survey
Unavailability of sampling frame prohibits using
other random sampling methods
Disadvantages
Statistically less efficient when the cluster elements
are similar
Costs and problems of statistical analysis are
greater than for simple random sampling.

Mathematics and Statistics

Nonrandom Sampling
Convenience Sampling: sample elements
are selected for the convenience of the
researcher
Judgment Sampling: sample elements are
selected by the judgment of the researcher
Quota Sampling: sample elements are
selected until the quota controls are
satisfied
Snowball Sampling: survey subjects are
selected based on referral from other survey
respondents

Mathematics and Statistics

Errors
u
u
u

Data from nonrandom samples are not appropriate


for analysis by inferential statistical methods.
Sampling Error occurs when the sample is not
representative of the population.
Nonsampling Errors
Missing Data, Recording, Data Entry, and
Analysis Errors
Poorly conceived concepts , unclear definitions,
and defective questionnaires
Response errors occur when people so not know,
will not say, or overstate in their answers

Mathematics and Statistics

Sampling Distribution of x
Proper analysis and interpretation of a sample
statistic requires knowledge of its distribution.

Population

(parameter)

Calculate x
to estimate
Process of
Inferential Statistics

Select a
random sample

Sample
x
(statistic)

Mathematics and Statistics

Distribution
of a Small Finite Population
Population Histogram

N=8
Frequency

54, 55, 59, 63, 64, 68, 69, 70

2
1
0
52.5

57.5

62.5

67.5

72.5

Mathematics and Statistics

Sample Space for n = 2 with Replacement

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Sample

Mean

(54,54)
(54,55)
(54,59)
(54,63)
(54,64)
(54,68)
(54,69)
(54,70)
(55,54)
(55,55)
(55,59)
(55,63)
(55,64)
(55,68)
(55,69)
(55,70)

54.0
54.5
56.5
58.5
59.0
61.0
61.5
62.0
54.5
55.0
57.0
59.0
59.5
61.5
62.0
62.5

17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32

Sample

Mean

(59,54)
(59,55)
(59,59)
(59,63)
(59,64)
(59,68)
(59,69)
(59,70)
(63,54)
(63,55)
(63,59)
(63,63)
(63,64)
(63,68)
(63,69)
(63,70)

56.5
57.0
59.0
61.0
61.5
63.5
64.0
64.5
58.5
59.0
61.0
63.0
63.5
65.5
66.0
66.5

33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

Sample

Mean

(64,54)
(64,55)
(64,59)
(64,63)
(64,64)
(64,68)
(64,69)
(64,70)
(68,54)
(68,55)
(68,59)
(68,63)
(68,64)
(68,68)
(68,69)
(68,70)

59.0
59.5
61.5
63.5
64.0
66.0
66.5
67.0
61.0
61.5
63.5
65.5
66.0
68.0
68.5
69.0

49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

Sample

Mean

(69,54)
(69,55)
(69,59)
(69,63)
(69,64)
(69,68)
(69,69)
(69,70)
(70,54)
(70,55)
(70,59)
(70,63)
(70,64)
(70,68)
(70,69)
(70,70)

61.5
62.0
64.0
66.0
66.5
68.5
69.0
69.5
62.0
62.5
64.5
66.5
67.0
69.0
69.5
70.0

Mathematics and Statistics

Distribution of the Sample Means


Sampling Distribution Histogram

20

Frequency

15
10
5
0
53.75

56.25

58.75

61.25

63.75

66.25

68.75

71.25

Mathematics and Statistics

1,800 Randomly Selected Values


from an Exponential Distribution
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

0 .5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10

Mathematics and Statistics

Means of 60 Samples (n = 2)
from an Exponential Distribution
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00

Mathematics and Statistics

Means of 60 Samples (n = 5)
from an Exponential Distribution
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

10

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00

Mathematics and Statistics

Means of 60 Samples (n = 30)


from an Exponential Distribution
16

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

Mathematics and Statistics

1,800 Randomly Selected Values


from a Uniform Distribution
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

250
200
150
100
50
0
0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Mathematics and Statistics

Means of 60 Samples (n = 2)
from a Uniform Distribution
F 10
r 9
e 8
q 7
u
6
e
n 5
c 4
y 3
2
1
0
1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00 4.25

Mathematics and Statistics

Means of 60 Samples (n = 5)
from a Uniform Distribution
F 12
r
e 10
q
u 8
e
n 6
c
y 4
2
0
1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

Mathematics and Statistics

Means of 60 Samples (n = 30)


from a Uniform Distribution
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

25

20

15

10

0
1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

Mathematics and Statistics

Central Limit Theorem


For sufficiently large sample sizes (n
The distribution of sample means

30),

x , is approximately normal;

The mean of this distribution is equal to , the population mean; and

Its standard deviation is

s
n

population distribution.

, Regardless of the shape of the

Mathematics and Statistics

Distribution of Sample Means


for Various Sample Sizes
Exponential
Population

Uniform
Population

n=2

n=2

n=5

n=5

n = 30

n = 30

Mathematics and Statistics

Distribution of Sample Means


for Various Sample Sizes
U Shaped
Population

Normal
Population

n=2

n=2

n=5

n=5

n = 30

n = 30

Mathematics and Statistics

Z Formula for Sample Means


Z

Mathematics and Statistics

Suppose you are sampling from a population with


mean = 1,065 and standard deviation = 500. The
sample size is n = 100. What are the expected value
and the variance of the sample mean ?

Mathematics and Statistics

Japans birthrate is believed to be 1.57 per woman.


Assume that the population standard deviation is 0.4. If
a random sample of 200 women is selected, what is the
probability that the sample mean will fall between 1.52
and 1.62?

Mathematics and Statistics

When sampling is from a population with mean 53


and standard deviation 10, using a sample of size
400, what are the expected value and the standard
deviation of the sample mean?

Mathematics and Statistics

According to BusinessWeek, profits in the energy sector


have been rising, with one company averaging $3.42
monthly per share. Assume this is an average from a
population with standard deviation of $1.5. If a random
sample of 30 months is selected, what is the probability
that its average will exceed $4.00?

Mathematics and Statistics

According to Money, in the year prior to March 2007,


the average return for firms of the S&P 500 was
13.1%. Assume that the standard deviation of returns
was 1.2%. If a random sample of 36 companies in the
S&P 500 is selected, what is the probability that their
average return for this period will be between 12%
and 15%?

Mathematics and Statistics

According to a recent article in Worth, the average price of a


house on Marco Island, Florida, is $2.6 million. Assume that the
standard deviation of the prices is $400,000. A random sample of
75 houses is taken and the average price is computed.
What is the probability that the sample mean exceeds $3 million?

Mathematics and Statistics

A quality-control analyst wants to estimate the


proportion of imperfect jeans in a large warehouse. The
analyst plans to select a random sample of 500 pairs of
jeans and note the proportion of imperfect pairs. If the
actual proportion in the entire warehouse is 0.35, what
is the probability that the sample proportion will
deviate from the population proportion by more than
0.05?

Mathematics and Statistics

According to Money, the average U.S. government


bond fund earned 3.9% over the 12 months ending in
February 2007. Assume a standard deviation of 0.5%.
What is the probability that the average earning in a
random sample of 25 bonds exceeded 3.0%?

Mathematics and Statistics

A new kind of alkaline battery is believed to last an


average of 25 hours of continuous use (in a given kind
of flashlight). Assume that the population standard
deviation is 2 hours. If a random sample of 100
batteries is selected and tested, is it likely that the
average battery in the sample will last less than 24
hours of continuous use? Explain.

Mathematics and Statistics

Thank You