RPT GMTP 2015 07 PEEK PDF

PENSION POVERTY AHEAD
Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free
GMTP DATA FILE INDEX
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - JULY 2015
6/30/2015
1 July 2015 Edition

Copyright 2015 Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved
Restricted & Confidential

general@GordonTLong.com
PENSION POVERTY AHEAD

Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - JULY 2015
TIPPING POINTS .................................................................................................................................... 33
GLOBAL MACRO: RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................................................. 33
POSITIONAL FRAMEWORK: "WE ARE HERE!".................................................................................................................................................... 33
LIQUIDITY is Neither WEALTH nor COLLATERAL ................................................................................................................................................ 34
Our Assessment ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 34
James Rickards Global Risk Assessment ........................................................................................................................................................ 47
MACRO MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ................................................................................................................................................................. 95
LATEST FROM THE MONITORS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 95
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 99
NEW-MONITORS - Lagarde warns of lopsided global growth ................................................................................................................ 99
NEW-MONITORS - OECD Cuts Global Growth Projections Again ........................................................................................................ 100
NEW-MONITORS World Bank Global Growth Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 101
MONITORS - World Bank warns 100M Unemployed, 447M Working Poor, 600M Required for Population Growth Alone ............... 102
MONITORS - World Bank Says 300M Young People neither Working nor Studying ............................................................................. 103
MONITORS - IMF warns of new threats to global economy due to excessive risk taking ...................................................................... 104
BIS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 106
NEW-BIS - BIS Slams The Fed: The Solution To Bubbles Is Not More Bubbles ....................................................................................... 106
NEW-BIS - Former BIS Chief Economist: "The System Is Dangerously Unanchored................................................................................ 106
NEW-BIS - Even the BIS Is Shocked At How Broken Markets Have Become ........................................................................................... 109
NEW-BIS - Perhaps The BIS Can Share Its Next "Debt Trap" Warnings With Its Own Board Of Directors First ...................................... 112
NEW-BIS - The Next Time The BIS Wants To Warn About Monetary Kool-Aid, Bubbles, Lack Of Liquidity Or Complacency ................ 115
NEW-BIS - "Low Volatility Everywhere" - BIS Sounds Alarm Alert On Pervasive Complacency Masking Systemic Shocks .................... 116
BIS - BIS warns on 'violent' reversal of global markets ............................................................................................................................... 121
WEF WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ............................................................................................................................................................ 125
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 125
NEW-WEF Global Business Risks ........................................................................................................................................................ 127
NEW-WEF The 2015 Global Risk Landscape ...................................................................................................................................... 128
NEW-WEF Evolving Risk Landscape (2007-2015) .............................................................................................................................. 129
NEW-WEF Global Risk Exposures By Region ..................................................................................................................................... 130
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 131
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ......................................................................................................................................................................... 131
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 133
NEW The economic balance of the world is shifting ................................................................................................................................... 133
NEW Global Conflict Intensity is heating up ................................................................................................................................................ 134
NEW World Conflict Map ............................................................................................................................................................................. 135
NEW World Conflict Map Details .............................................................................................................................................................. 136
NEW Global Conflict & Protest Intensity ...................................................................................................................................................... 137
NEW Deutsche Banks Key Global Risk ...................................................................................................................................................... 137
NEW Political and Financial Risk Now Outnumber Real Economy Risks .................................................................................................. 138
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 139
NEW Global Conflict Intensity Spikes To 7-Year High ................................................................................................................................ 139
NEW These Are 2015's "Black Swans" According To SocGen .................................................................................................................. 140
NEW "Globalization Is Turning In On Itself And It Is Each Man For Himself" ............................................................................................. 141
Putin Unleashes Fury at US Follies in Major Pivotal Speech ................................................................................................................... 144
Putin Warns Of Risk of Major Conflict, Says Dollar Losing Reserve Currency Status ............................................................................... 145
Putin Accuses U.S. of Blackmail, Weakening Global Order ....................................................................................................................... 146
REFERENCE PAPERS Position Reminders Lest We Forget ................................................................................................................... 149
FOURTH TURNING ACCELERATING ....................................................................................................................................................... 149
AMERICAS GLOBAL RETREAT ................................................................................................................................................................ 160
THE OLD WORLD ORDER IS OVER ......................................................................................................................................................... 163
THE DEMOGRAPHIC THREAT TO DEVELOPED NATIONS ................................................................................................................... 164
THE RISK CONTINUUM ............................................................................................................................................................................. 167
GLOBAL TRENDS THE SIX FRAMING MEGATRENDS ........................................................................................................................ 169
GLOBAL THEMES TEN STRUCTURALTHEMES FOR STRATEGY ..................................................................................................... 171
DEBT SATURATION - A COLLAPSING PONZI SCHEME......................................................................................................................... 173
WINTER 2015 EVENT RISK DOMINATES ........................................................................................................................................... 175
GLOBAL MACRO: RISK SIGNALS ......................................................................................................................................... 182

GEO-POLITICAL RISK Tensions & Conflicts ..................................................................................................................................................... 184
YEMEN ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 184
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 184
NEW-YEMEN Strategic Position ........................................................................................................................................................... 184
NEW-YEMEN al-Houthis and Saleh Concentrations ............................................................................................................................ 185
NEW-YEMEN The Decisive Storm Coalition ...................................................................................................................................... 185
NEW-YEMEN Global Oil Chokepoints .................................................................................................................................................. 186
July 2015 Edition


NEW-YEMEN Middle Eastern Oil Production & Chokepoints .............................................................................................................. 186

NEW-YEMEN Chinese Import Countries & Oil Routes ........................................................................................................................ 188
NEW-YEMEN Major Crude Oil Trade Flows in the South China Sea .................................................................................................. 189
NEW-YEMEN Regional Territorial Claims in the South China Sea ...................................................................................................... 190
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 191
NEW-YEMEN Risk of World War between NATO and Russia on Ukraine Escalation as Yemen Bombed for Third Day ................ 191
NEW-YEMEN Yemen Ground Invasion by Saudi, Egyptian Troops Imminent .................................................................................... 193
NEW-YEMEN Middle East Proxy War: Presenting The Massive "Decisive Storm" Coalition.............................................................. 196
NEW-YEMEN Saudi Arabia Imposes Naval Blockade on Red Sea Strait, Deploys 150,000 Troops ................................................. 197
NEW-YEMEN Another Middle East War Breaks Out: Saudis Begin Bombing Yemen, US Military Taking Action ............................. 199
NEW-YEMEN Presenting The Theater Of War; Who Controls Yemen? ............................................................................................. 204
NEW-YEMEN US-Armed Rebels Force Yemen President To Flee Country As Saudis Prepare For War .......................................... 206
UKRAINE EAST/WEST CONFLICT The New Colder War ..................................................................................................................... 211
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ..................................................................................................................................................................... 212
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 218
NEW-UKRAINE - Putin Is Becoming A "Vulture" Bond Investor ............................................................................................................. 218
NEW-UKRAINE - West Further Infuriates & Antagonizes Russia with Debt Restructuring Pressures................................................... 219
NEW-UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms Shipments ........................................................................................ 223
NEW-UKRAINE - US Taxpayers to Fund Ukraine Bailout via Bond Guarantee ..................................................................................... 227
NEW-UKRAINE - Congress Approves Funding for Ukraine Arms .......................................................................................................... 228
NEW-UKRAINE - White House Explains Where Your $1.3 Billion Went In Ukraine ................................................................. 231
NEW-UKRAINE - Putin Says Attempts To Tip Nuclear Balance Don't Scare Russia, Moscow Will Uncover "Schemes" ..................... 234
NEW-UKRAINE - Putin Security Council Slams Obama Attempts at "New World Order" ...................................................................... 235
NEW-UKRAINE- A Russian Viewpoint ................................................................................................................................................ 237
NEW-UKRAINE- This Is What Is Really Taking Place Behind The Scenes Of The Second US-Russian Cold War ............. 251
ISIS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 253
ISIS THE SUNNI / SHIA /KURD PROBLEM ............................................................................................................................................ 254
NEW-ISIS - Obama Says ISIS War Powers Request Not About 'Another Ground War' ........................................................................ 258
NEW-ISIS - President Obama Explains His "Boots On The Ground" ISIS-War Strategy ....................................................................... 258
ISIS- Kobani Overshadows Larger Battles .............................................................................................................................................. 259
SYRIA .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 262
NEW-SYRIA - Syria "Welcomes" Larger Russia Presence ................................................................................................................ 263
SYRIA - This has the Earmarks of the Kennedy Ear "Cuban Missile" Crisis .................................................................................. 264
SYRIA - Syrian War You Are Not Being Told About ........................................................................................................................... 265
SYRIA - 25 Quotes .................................................................................................................................................................................. 266
SYRIA - What Coalition? ........................................................................................................................................................................ 269
SYRIA - US Supporting Fully an "Al Qaeda Operation" ..................................................................................................................... 271
SYRIA - Decision Already Taken to Bomb Syria ................................................................................................................................. 273
SYRIA - Market Patterns Before and Immediately After Conflict Begins ................................................................................................ 281
SOUTH CHINA SEA TERRITORIAL PROBLEMS ......................................................................................................................................... 283
GEO-POLITICAL RISK - Social, Economic & Financial ........................................................................................................................................ 286
NEW-GREECE - Greek Energy Minister Slams "Unscrupulous, Imperialist" Germany, Seeks "Bold Alternatives" In Russia ...................... 286
NEW-GREECE - Greece Prepares To Leave ................................................................................................................................................. 288
NEW-GREECE - Greek Deputy FinMin Confirms Athens Is "Prepared For Rift" With Europe ...................................................................... 290
NEW-GREECE - Will Greece Call A Referendum On Euro Membership?..................................................................................................... 291
NEW-GREECE - What Greece Owes, And More Importantly - When! .......................................................................................................... 294
NEW-GREECE - BofA's Modest Proposal For Greece: "A Negative Shock May Be Necessary" ................................................................. 297
NEW-GREECE - On Greek "Independence Day", Creditors Prepare To Seal Athens' Fate ......................................................................... 300
GEO-POLITICAL RISK Global Governance Failure ........................................................................................................................................... 303
ASIAN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMETN BANK A Threat to World Bank and US$ Reserve Status ..................................................... 303
CHARTS OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 306
NEW-AIIB Demanding Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................................... 306
RESEARCH OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................................ 307
NEW-AIIB - The Nepo-Cold War, The World Bank and the AIIB Threat .................................................................................... 307
NEW-AIIB - Washington Blinks: Will Seek Partnership With China-Led Development Bank ................................................................. 309
NEW-AIIB - China "Is Not Another US", Does Not Seek "Yuan Hegemony" .......................................................................................... 310
NEW-AIIB - Obama administration proposes co-financing projects with new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.... 312
NEW-AIIB - Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait AND Saudi Arabia have applied Goodbye Petrodollar! .................................................... 315
NEW-AIIB - Obama continues to be humiliated by the rising anti-dollar alliance ................................................................... 317
NEW-AIIB - Did De-Dollarization Just Reach Escape Velocity? ............................................................................................................. 319
EMERGING BRICS ALLIANCE NEW MULTI-POLAR WORLD .................................................................................................................. 323
MULTI-POLAR-Money Supply The New World Economy ....................................................................................................................... 323
MULTI-POLAR-Financial Globalist Impose Monetary Hegemony .............................................................................................................. 325
MULTI-POLAR-Financial Globalists Controlling the Political Process ........................................................................................................ 327
ADVANCING GLOBAL FINANCIAL REPRESSION ....................................................................................................................................... 330
HENRY KISSINGER CALLS FOR NEW WORLD ORDER (NWO) ............................................................................................................... 332
KISSINGER- Henry Kissingers World Order ............................................................................................................................................ 332
GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS ........................................................................................................................................... 335

AGGREGATED GLOBAL FINANCIAL RISK INDEX ............................................................................................................................................. 335
NEW-BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD ................................................................................................................................................ 336
NEW-BANKING RISK - TED SPREAD ........................................................................................................................................................... 336
NEW-CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS ....................................................................................................................... 337
July 2015 Edition


NEW-CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS .................................................................................................................................. 337

NEW-CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE ......................................................................................................................... 337
NEW-ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX ......................................................................................................................................... 338
NEW-INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 ......................................................................................................................... 339
NEW-INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY ............................................................................................................................................... 339
MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES ......................................................................................................................................................... 340
NEW-COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES .................................................................................................................................... 340
AGGREGATED RISK LEVEL ................................................................................................................................................................................ 341
TIPPING POINTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 343

NEW-CHANGES TO RANKINGS Q2 2015 ........................................................................................................................................................ 343
NEW-CHANGES TO RANKINGS - Longer Term Benchmarks ............................................................................................................................ 345
NEW-CHANGES TO ROADMAPS - Longer Term Trends ................................................................................................................................... 346
NEW-CHANGES TO RANKINGS - Longer Term Benchmarks ............................................................................................................................ 347
TIPPING POINTS: TOP 5 FOCUS - APRIL 2015 ................................................................................................................................................. 350
NEW-I - RISK REVERSAL .............................................................................................................................................................................. 350
NEW-II - GEO-POLITICAL EVENT RISK ........................................................................................................................................................ 351
NEW-V - CHINA HARD LANDING .................................................................................................................................................................. 352
NEW-III - JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION ............................................................................................................................................................. 356
NEW-IV - EU BANKING CRISIS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 357
GLOBAL MACRO: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................ 364

ECONOMIC WARNINGS....................................................................................................................................................................................... 364
IMF WARNS .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 364
NEW- IMF Warns of Permanent Stagnation ................................................................................................................................................ 364
IMF sees risk of new eurozone .................................................................................................................................................................... 366
IMF Tells Central Europe to Spend More .................................................................................................................................................... 369
Japanese & Spanish Debt Unsustainable ................................................................................................................................................... 372
Global Recovery Faltering, Reduces Global Growth to Just Above 3% Global Recession Level .............................................................. 374
BIS WARNS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 376
NEW-BIS WARNS - Former BIS Economic Advisor Warns on European QE ..................................................................................... 376
Monetary Policy At Its Limits ........................................................................................................................................................................ 388
WORLD BANK WARNS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 389
Social Unrest Stems from Shrinking Disposable Income. Jobs are the central issue. ..................................................................... 391
G20 WARNS Need to Add $2T in Economic Activity & Tens of Millions of Jobs ........................................................................................ 393
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED .............................................................................................................................................................................. 394
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 397
NEW-CHART: Global Stock of Debt Outstanding Grows By $57T Since Financial Crisis .................................................................... 397
NEW-CHART: Decade-Long Central Bank FX Reserves Surge Nears End ............................................................................................. 398
NEW-CHART: Global Business Equipment Investment ............................................................................................................................ 399
NEW-CHART: EM versus DM Credit Risk ................................................................................................................................................... 400
NEW-CHART: MSCI World P/E versus EM P/E ........................................................................................................................................... 400
NEW-CHART: Emerging Capital Flows & Currency Moves ...................................................................................................................... 401
NEW-CHART: Falling Real GDP of Emerging Versus Rising Developed Economies ............................................................................ 401
NEW-CHART: Domestic Bank Credit of EM versus DM ............................................................................................................................ 402
NEW-CHART: Regional Resilience Score Differences Since the Financial Crisis ................................................................................. 402
NEW-CHART: US Macro index at a New 6 Year Low. ................................................................................................................................ 404
NEW-CHART: There is a Problem in Global Credit .................................................................................................................................... 404
CHART: Serial Disappointments & Ratcheting Down of Global Growth ................................................................................................. 405
CHART: Continuous Weakening of Global GDP Estimates ...................................................................................................................... 406
CHART: Reduced Demand Pressures on Energy Prices .......................................................................................................................... 406
CHART: Reduced Demand Pressures on Commodities ........................................................................................................................... 407
CHART: Global Corporate Profit Trends ..................................................................................................................................................... 407
CHART: Stunning Growth in Debt of Developed Economies since Dotcom Bubble Burst .................................................................. 408
CHART: Worlds FDI Flooding Into Financial Products versus Productive Assets ............................................................................... 409
CHART: Growth of Asian Middle Class Dominates Next 20 Years ....................................................................................................... 410
CHART: Global Domestic Demand Growth ................................................................................................................................................ 410
CHART: Global Asset Markets Reflecting a Major Demand Shock Has Hit ............................................................................................ 411
CHART: World GDP 2014 Economic Growth Estimates ........................................................................................................................... 411
CHART: World GDP versus World MSCI Stock Index ............................................................................................................................... 412
CHART: Baltic Dry Perspective Slowing Global Aggregate Demand Growth Rate ............................................................................ 413
CHART: World Trade versus Central Bank Balance Sheet Growth ......................................................................................................... 413
CHART: Falling Global LEI (Leading Economic Indicator) ....................................................................................................................... 414
CHART: World GDP Economic Forecast 2014 ........................................................................................................................................... 415
CHART: World GDP Economic Expectations versus MSCI Equity Index ............................................................................................... 415
CHART: Fiscal Adjustments Required Deficit Reductions for Fiscal Sustainability .......................................................................... 416
CHART: Shifting Global GDP Share ............................................................................................................................................................ 417
CHART: Over $10 Trillion Pumped Into Global Economy by Developed Economies ............................................................................ 418
CHART: Eventually All this Debt Must be Rolled over or Paid Out ......................................................................................................... 418
CHART: Future Economic Growth a Sub 2% Trend .................................................................................................................................. 419
CHART: Debt and Fiscal Drag Are Significant Factors Affecting Global Growth .................................................................................. 419
CHART: Slowing Global Aggregate Demand Shows in Shrinking FDI .................................................................................................... 420
CHART: Liquidity Drain in US in 2H 2014 ................................................................................................................................................... 421
July 2015 Edition


RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 422

NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun ...................................................................................................... 422
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK Biggest Worry" Is Dramatic Decline In Bond Market Liquidity, Prudential Says ........................................... 425
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Proving to be Volatile..................................................................................................... 426
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2015 Macro Outlook Forecasts Hinge on a Deteriorating US Economy ........................................................ 429
GLOBAL OUTLOOK 3 of 10 Largest Economies Have Fallen into Recession .......................................................................................... 430
GLOBAL OUTLOOK This is the Biggest Risk to the World's Economy ..................................................................................................... 433
GLOBAL OUTLOOK What is global market turbulence telling us? ............................................................................................................ 437
GLOBAL OUTLOOK Darker Outlook Has Bond Market Rethinking Odds of Economic Downturn ........................................................... 440
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ....................................................................................................................... 442
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ....................................................................................................................... 444
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - THE ECONOMIC ROADMAP AHEAD: It Isn't That Complicated! ............................................................................ 445
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - 20 Signs That the Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire ................................................................ 450
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion) ......................................................................................... 452
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Global Debt Crosses $100 Trillion, Rises By $30 Trillion Since 2007 ................................................................ 455
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The US as the Global Consumption Engine to See Sub 2% Trend Growth .................................................... 458
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat .................................................................................................................. 461
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ............................................................................................................... 463
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility .............................................................................. 466
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - A 67 Million Jobs Gap .............................................................................................................................................. 468
ECONOMIC CUTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 472
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 472
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record 3 ................................................................................................................................... 472
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record 2 ................................................................................................................................... 475
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record - 1 .................................................................................................................................... 475
IMF To Slash Economic Growth Forecast... AGAIN - Still Full of Hockey sticks ............................................................................................ 475
IMF CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................ 481
OECD CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AGAIN!............................................................................................................................................ 491
OECD CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ........................................................................................................................................................ 493
GLOBAL MACRO: INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................................ 496

GLOBAL TRENDS ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 496
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 496
NEW-GLOBAL TRENDS Consensus 2015 World GDP Growth Expectations ................................................................................... 496
NEW-GLOBAL TRENDS US Macro Continues to Plummet ................................................................................................................. 496
NEW-GLOBAL TRENDS GLI Momentum & Global Industrial Production Both About to Go Into Contraction ............................ 497
GLOBAL TRENDS Changes in 2014 2015 Profit (EPS) Forecasts By Country/Region ............................................................. 497
GLOBAL TRENDS Changes in 2014 2015 Profit (EPS) Forecasts By Sector ............................................................................. 498
GLOBAL TRENDS G7 Long Run GDP Growth Rates (PPP Weighted) .............................................................................................. 498
GLOBAL TRENDS Falling Population Growth Rate in Developed Economies ................................................................................. 499
GLOBAL TRENDS Falling Labor Productivity Rate in Developed Economies .................................................................................. 500
GLOBAL TRENDS Falling Workers Per Retiree in Developed Economies ............................................................................................. 500
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 501
GLOBAL TRENDS The curse of weak global demand ............................................................................................................................ 501
GLOBAL TRENDS Is economic growth permanently lower? Do We Have Secular Stagnation ........................................................... 505
GLOBAL TRENDS - The Facts are Clear - the US Standard of Living is Falling ................................................................................. 509
GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT....................................................................................................................................................................................... 510
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 510
CHART Global Employment Rates ........................................................................................................................................................ 510
CHART Global Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................................. 511
CHART Global Unemployment EU Comparison ................................................................................................................................... 511
CHART Unemployment in Advanced Countries .................................................................................................................................. 512
CHART Global Labor Participation Rates ............................................................................................................................................ 512
CHART Global Youth Unemployment By Country ........................................................................................................................... 513
CHART Global Chance of Finding a Job Within Year ......................................................................................................................... 513
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 514
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - The Beginnings of the Welfare Myth Unwind ........................................................................................ 514
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - The Unsustainable Welfare Myth ............................................................................................................ 516
GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT - Global Financial Sector Job Cuts ............................................................................................................... 518
GLOBAL SENTIMENT ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 520
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 520
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Down In Q4 2014 ................................................................................. 520
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence by Country ........................................................................................... 521
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Improves the Most In North America ............................................... 522
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Recessionary Sentiment Increases in Latin America ......................................................................... 523
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT North America Reports Strong Increase Y-o-Y for all Confidence Indicators ................................. 524
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 63% of European Markets....................................................... 525
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 71% of Asia Pacific Markets ................................................... 526
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence Decreases in 71% of Latin America Markets ............................................... 527
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Falls...................................................................... 528
NEW-GLOBAL SENTIMENT Consumer Confidence High in Sub-Saharan Africa ........................................................................... 529
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Activity Future Expectations ............................................................................................. 530
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Jog Prospects Reach 50% - First Time In 7 Years ........................................................................... 530
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence by Country .................................................................................................... 532
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Consumer Confidence Trends by Country ....................................................................................... 533
July 2015 Edition


GLOBAL SENTIMENT Northern American Spending Intentions Rise According to Nielsen ......................................................... 534
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 535
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Global Business Confidence Collapses To Post-Lehman Lows ........................................................................ 535
GLOBAL SENTIMENT The State Of Economic 'Misery' Around The World ........................................................................................... 537
GLOBAL SENTIMENT Highest Level Since 2007 ................................................................................................................................ 541
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent ........................................................................................................................................................ 542
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Complacent ........................................................................................................................................................ 544
GLOBAL SENTIMENT - Nielsens Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions ........................................................ 545
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 556
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 556
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Rising Consumer Prices are Hurting Global Demand ........................................................................... 556
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Global Home Prices Are Rolling Over ..................................................................................................... 556
GLOBAL CONSUMPTION Real Domestic Demand US, Japan & EU .............................................................................................. 557
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 558
GLOBAL GROWTH ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 558
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 558
NEW-GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Swirlogram Gets Worse ..................................................................................... 558
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Signals Contraction ......................................................................................................... 559
GLOBAL GROWTH Eurozone PMI and GDP .......................................................................................................................................... 560
GLOBAL GROWTH World PMI Rankings ................................................................................................................................................ 561
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Has Now Rolled Over ...................................................................................................... 562
GLOBAL GROWTH Global PMI Business Surveys Fall .......................................................................................................................... 562
GLOBAL GROWTH Baltic Dry Index Collapses 50% .............................................................................................................................. 563
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Slowdown on Verge of Contraction.............................................................................................................. 564
GLOBAL GROWTH - GDP Forecasts Continue to Be Taken Down........................................................................................................... 564
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Leading Indicator Goldmans Swirlogram Getting More Serious ......................................................... 564
GLOBAL GROWTH Global Industrial Production Rolling Over ............................................................................................................. 565
GLOBAL GROWTH Consensus 2014 GDP Forecast - Differential ......................................................................................................... 566
GLOBAL GROWTH G10 Macro Change ................................................................................................................................................. 566
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 567
GLOBAL GROWTH - World's Busiest Freight Route Rates Plunge To 2014 Lows ................................................................................... 567
GLOBAL GROWTH - Goldman Global Leading Indicator Drastically Revised, Collapses into "Confirmed Slowdown" ............................ 568
GLOBAL GROWTH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine .......................................................... 570
GLOBAL GROWTH Potential of a Global Recession Mounting ............................................................................................................ 571
GLOBAL GROWTH What the hint of a Fed Taper Did to Global Growth Estimates....................................................................... 575
GLOBAL GROWTH - Uneconomic Energy Problematic ......................................................................................................................... 577
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global Growth Cycle ................................................................................................................................................. 579
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global GDP Contribution .......................................................................................................................................... 580
GLOBAL GROWTH - Slowing Global Growth - Air Cargo Shipments ........................................................................................................ 581
GLOBAL CREDIT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 582
CREDIT CYCLE - HY Leading the Way ........................................................................................................................................................ 582
CREDIT CYCLE - Reversal Ahead ................................................................................................................................................................ 585
GLOBAL MACRO: MONETARY POLICY & CENTRAL BANKING .......................................................................................... 588

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKING ............................................................................................................................................................................ 588
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED Global Banking Risk .................................................................................................................................... 588
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 591
NEW-CHARTS Consensus Fed and ECB Rate Hike Projections ....................................................................................................... 591
NEW-CHARTS Global Monetary Policy Stance & Bias ....................................................................................................................... 592
NEW-CHARTS Global Government Bonds Trading With Negative Yields ....................................................................................... 593
NEW-CHARTS Lack of Inflation in Europe ........................................................................................................................................... 593
NEW-CHARTS Two Sides of Inflation Commodities, Inflation Breakevens and UST Curve (5-30s) .......................................... 594
NEW-CHARTS Quantitative e Easing No Longer Drives Commodity Prices ................................................................................... 595
NEW-CHARTS De-Leveraging Average Industrial Debt-Percentage of GDP ................................................................................ 595
NEW-CHARTS Sovereign Net Issuance After Central Bank Issuances ......................................................................................... 596
NEW-CHARTS Sovereign Net Issuance After Central Bank Issuances ......................................................................................... 596
NEW-CHARTS Falling Global Bond Rates Continue in Q1 2015 ....................................................................................................... 597
NEW-CHARTS The Road to NIR (Negative Rates) ............................................................................................................................... 597
CHARTS Central Bank Policy Rates ..................................................................................................................................................... 598
CHARTS Days of Chinese Credit-Driven Growth are numbered ....................................................................................................... 598
CHARTS Major Central Bank Assets versus GDP Forecast .............................................................................................................. 600
CHARTS Major Central Bank Y-o-Y Balance Sheet Growth ............................................................................................................... 600
CHARTS Cumulative Change in Central Bank Balance Sheets Since 2008 .................................................................................. 601
CHARTS Global Central Bank Assets versus World Equity Prices .................................................................................................. 601
CHARTS Cumulative Change in Central Bank Balance Sheets Since 2000 .................................................................................. 602
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 603
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - The $100 Trillion Global Debt Ponzi Scheme ............................................................................................. 603
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - The Backstop of Modern Finance Is About to Implode ............................................................................. 604
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - What does NIRP Tell US About Global Risk of Deflation? ........................................................................ 605
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - In Denmark You Are Now Paid To Take Out A Mortgage .......................................................................... 608
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - The Beginning of the End of the $100 TRILLION Bond Bubble ............................................................... 609
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - The $100 Trillion Reason Why Central Banks Are Terrified of Debt Deflation ....................................... 611
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - The year of Dollar Danger for the world ...................................................................................................... 613
NEW- CENTRAL BANKS - Commodities, Inflation Breakevens and Yield Curve Sending Clear Warnings ..................................... 618
CENTRAL BANKS Economic policies are diverging in the developed world as deflation looms ............................................................ 622
July 2015 Edition


CENTRAL BANKS Central banks can't raise growth potential, says ECB's Weidmann ......................................................................... 624
CENTRAL BANKS Axel Merks 2014 Outlook ....................................................................................................................................... 625
CENTRAL BANKS - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries .............................................................. 628
CENTRAL BANKS - Austerity Now Officially Dead Public Policy ........................................................................................................... 629
CENTRAL BANKS - A Serious Shortage of Quality Collateral - A $10T US Problem Over 10 Years ............................................... 630
CENTRAL BANKS - Global Balance Sheet Expansion .......................................................................................................................... 632
NEW-WAR ON CASH ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 637
NEW-WAR ON CASH Elliott Waves Report on the War on Cash ........................................................................................................ 637
NEW-WAR ON CASH The "War On Cash" Migrates To Switzerland...................................................................................................... 642
NEW-WAR ON CASH Chase Joins the War on Cash ............................................................................................................................. 645
NEW-WAR ON CASH Largest Bank In America Joins War On Cash ..................................................................................................... 647
NEW-WAR ON CASH Citigroup's Gold "Expert" Demands A Cash Ban ................................................................................................. 649
NEW-SWISS PEG ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 653
NEW-SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure First Central Bank To Lose Control .......................................................................................... 654
NEW-SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure The Financial System Broke Last Week .................................................................................. 656
NEW-SWISS PEG Swiss Peg Failure Keynesian Contral Banking is Destroying Money & Markets ................................................... 657
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 661
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Insider Says Central Banks Making it Up as They Go! ....................................................................... 661
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS 2007 Redux: Total public and private debt levels are 30pc higher in the advanced economies
...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 662
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Polish Pension Confiscation: Coming to a Theater near You .......................................................... 665
TROUBLING DEVELOPMENTS Global Tax Overhaul .......................................................................................................................... 667
BOE - UK ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 668
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 668
UK Dissent within BOE Set to Continue ............................................................................................................................................... 668
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 668
UK - BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls .......................................................................................................... 668
UK - Mark Carney and "Flexible Inflation Targeting" ............................................................................................................................. 670
FED - US ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 672
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 673
NEW-CHARTS Feds QE History versus UST 10 Year Yields ............................................................................................................ 673
NEW-CHARTS Fed Balance Sheet Growth .......................................................................................................................................... 673
CHARTS June 2015 Fed Rates Hikes Diminish ................................................................................................................................... 674
CHARTS Inflation Expectations 1 Yr, 5010Yr, 5Yr/5Yr ..................................................................................................................... 674
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 675
NEW-US MONETARY - Humphrey Hawkins Testimony - Yellen Secures More Flexibility for 'Patient' Fed.................................... 675
NEW-US MONETARY - Audit the Fed Yellens Testimony .................................................................................................................. 677
NEW-US MONETARY - Criticism by Architect of Japanese Quantitative Easing of Fed Policy ....................................................... 686
US MONETARY - CAPITAL DISTORTION - Global Acceptance of the Bernankean Theory ............................................................... 689
US MONETARY - FINANCIAL REPRESSION - The Suspension of Price Discovery ........................................................................... 692
US MONETARY - The Fed is stuck in a QE Trap .................................................................................................................................... 695
US MONETARY - 2nd Worst Decade In US Growth in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) ........................................................... 697
US MONETARY - Mathematically, The Fed Can Only Fail ..................................................................................................................... 699
US MONETARY - QE Standing Between Inflated Equity Markets and A Recession .......................................................................... 705
US MONETARY - QE Programs versus S&P 500 Movements ............................................................................................................... 706
US MONETARY - BAML Warns If The US Economy Does Not Significantly Accelerate Now, It Never Will ..................................... 708
US MONETARY - Debt Increases $1 Trillion in One Year ...................................................................................................................... 710
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS The Road Ahead ....................................................................................................................................................... 713
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 713
NEW-JAPAN Japan Heads Back towards Deflation ............................................................................................................................ 713
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics -I ........................................................................................................................................... 714
JAPAN The Third Arrow of ABE-Nomics II ......................................................................................................................................... 715
JAPAN Japanese Households Remain Pessimistic ............................................................................................................................ 716
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 717
NEW- GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - Japan Shocked To Find Abenomics Is Destroying Its Middle Class ...................................................... 717
NEW- GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game ................................................. 720
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Expansion Extremely Difficult to Stop Once Started ........................................................................ 721
GLOBAL ABE-NOMICS Monetary Policy Below the Event Horizon ................................................................................................... 724
BOJ JAPAN ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 726
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 726
JAPAN Japans Inflation Pressure Ebbs Away......................................................................................................................................... 726
JAPAN BOJ QE Expansion In Context Debt Monetization ................................................................................................................... 727
JAPAN Japanese Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................................. 728
JAPAN Japanese Real & Nominal Household Income ............................................................................................................................ 728
JAPAN CPI Shoots To 3.3% Y-o-Y ......................................................................................................................................................... 729
JAPAN Japan Government Investment Fund Asset Reallocation ..................................................................................................... 729
JAPAN Falling Real Rates as Financial Repression Takes Hold ....................................................................................................... 729
JAPAN Real Wages Plummet as Financial Repression Takes Hold .................................................................................................. 730
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 731
JAPAN - "Godfather" Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy "Is A Ponzi Game ...................................................................................... 732
JAPAN - How a Limo Ride With Paul Krugman Changed the Course of Abenomics ................................................................................. 734
JAPAN - Kurodas Former Boss Urges Ditching of BOJ 2% Inflation Target .............................................................................................. 737
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ....................................................................................................................... 739
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% Of GDP In 5 Years .................................................................................................................................... 740
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history .......................................................................................... 743
July 2015 Edition


JAPAN - Some Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit ................................................................................................................................. 745
JAPAN - Foreshadows Next Global Crisis .................................................................................................................................................. 746
JAPAN - Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world ....................................................................... 751
JAPAN - Shinzo Abes Monetary-Policy Delusions ..................................................................................................................................... 752
JAPAN - BOJ Governor Job Suddenly Available in Historical "Abenomics U-Turn" .................................................................................. 755
JAPAN - Japanese Economic Policy Goes The Full Ponzi ......................................................................................................................... 756
PBOC - CHINA ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 758
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 759
NEW-CHARTS Bank Loans in China accelerating at the fastest pace since Financial Crisis. ............................................................... 759
NEW-CHARTS China Reduces Bank Reserve Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 759
NEW-CHARTS Speculation Takes Hold of Sky Rocketing Chinese Stock Market ................................................................................. 760
NEW-CHARTS Falling Chinese Government Revenue Growth .............................................................................................................. 761
NEW-CHARTS Falling National New Residential Housing Starts ........................................................................................................... 761
NEW-CHARTS China and Asia Residential Property Tracking US Housing Bubble .............................................................................. 762
NEW-CHARTS Real Chinese Rates versus Cuts .................................................................................................................................... 762
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 763
NEW-CHINA MONETARY - China's "Animal Spirits" May Call For "Draconian" Measures To Curb Rally, UBS Says ............................. 763
NEW-CHINA MONETARY Is China Beginning to Panic as it Lowers Reserve Ratio ............................................................................. 765
NEW-CHINA MONETARY - Liquidity evaporates in China as 'fiscal cliff' nears......................................................................................... 767
ECB EU ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 773
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................... 773
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 774
NEW-CHARTS Welcome to the EUs NIRP........................................................................................................................................... 774
NEW-CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ............................................................................................................................... 775
NEW-CHARTS Negative Swiss Government Bonds ............................................................................................................................... 775
NEW-CHARTS UK & German Total Return Indices ................................................................................................................................ 776
NEW-CHARTS ECBs Dilemma of Digging Up Enough Debt .................................................................................................................. 776
NEW-CHARTS Nearly $2T European Nonds Trading With Negative Yields........................................................................................... 777
NEW-CHARTS Total National Debt Germany versus Industrial Country Average (ex-Germany) ....................................................... 777
NEW-CHARTS The Fastest Growing Asset Class NIR Products ......................................................................................................... 778
CHARTS Euro-Area Output Still Slightly Below Pre-Crisis Levels ........................................................................................................... 779
CHARTS 5 Year Inflation Swaps Suggests Deflation in the EU .............................................................................................................. 780
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Rate on the Decline Since 2011 ................................................................................................................ 780
CHARTS Euro-Area Inflation Expectations Decline ................................................................................................................................. 781
CHARTS Euro-Area Private Sector Loan Creation .................................................................................................................................. 782
CHARTS Euro-Area Money Supply, Private Sector Lending Growth ...................................................................................................... 782
CHARTS Euro-Area 10 Yr Sovereign Bond Yields .................................................................................................................................. 783
CHARTS Slovenia May BE the Next EU Debt Hotspot ............................................................................................................................ 783
CHARTS Spain & Portugal NPL ............................................................................................................................................................... 784
CHARTS ECBs Turn to Expand Its Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................................. 785
CHARTS ECBs Balance Sheet Contracted Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................................... 785
CHARTS Expect Major ECB Policy Announcement in Q2 2014 .............................................................................................................. 786
CHARTS ECB Set to Stay on Hold as Inflation Seen Lower ................................................................................................................... 787
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 788
NEW-EU MONETARY - NIRP Is A Flawed Economic Concept ................................................................................................................. 789
NEW-EU MONETARY - NIRP ..................................................................................................................................................................... 791
NEW-EU MONETARY NIRP - Yield scarce as the world turns negative ................................................................................................. 795
NEW-EU MONETARY - XXXX .................................................................................................................................................................... 798
NEW-EU MONETARY - XXXX .................................................................................................................................................................... 798
EU MONETARY - Draghi Key Statements .................................................................................................................................................. 799
EU MONETARY - Draghi throws ECB door open to money printing as global prospects dim ................................................................... 799
EU MONETARY - Economic Recovery Too Weak for ECB to Avoid New Action ...................................................................................... 802
EU MONETARY - Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points toward QE ........................................................................................................... 803
EU MONETARY - EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases To Drive Euro Down ............................................................................ 806
MACRO MONETARY INFLATION ..................................................................................................................................................................... 808
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 808
NEW-CHARTS The Fall of Hyperinflation & the Rise of Deflation ............................................................................................................... 808
NEW-CHARTS Falling US Consumer Price Index ....................................................................................................................................... 808
CHARTS Global Consumer Prices are Rising Significantly ......................................................................................................................... 809
CHARTS Global Country Inflation Rates .................................................................................................................................................. 809
CHARTS Two Worlds if Inflation EM and DM ....................................................................................................................................... 809
CHARTS Developed Country Inflation Rates ........................................................................................................................................... 811
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 812
NEW- INFLATION Martin Armstrongs Explanation of Monetary Inflation........................................................................................ 812
INFLATION - Asset & Property inflation means shops have to pay higher rents with higher product prices ............................................. 814
GEO-ECONOMIC INSTABILITIES........................................................................................................................................... 816

GEO-ECONOMIC INDEX ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 816
US$ RESERVE STATUS & ERODING INFLUENCE............................................................................................................................................ 817
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED DE=DOLLARIZATION .................................................................................................................... 817
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 820
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - Countries that have joined the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ....................................... 820
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIBs Founding Members ........................................................................................................................... 820
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - Asias Infrastructure Legs & the AIIBs Expected Capital Structure ............................................................ 821
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - AIIB Infrastructure Investment ..................................................................................................................... 822
July 2015 Edition


NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - The Rise & Fall of Modern Empires ............................................................................................................. 822

RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 824
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - U.S. Looks to Work with China-Led Infrastructure Fund ............................................................................. 824
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - US Hegemony, Dollar Dominance Are Officially Dead ............................................................................... 827
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) with its Own SDRs Is Coming ............................................... 829
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - China Takes Aim At Dollar Reserve Status: Promotes Yuan In Investment Bank ..................................... 831
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - Kazakhstan Authorities Announce Plans To De-Dollarize Economy .......................................................... 833
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - China to urge firms to sell bonds overseas to fund new Silk Road to Europe ............................................ 835
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is This The Most Important Chart For The Future Of The World's Reserve Currency? ............................. 835
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - Is Russia Planning A Gold-Based Currency? .............................................................................................. 839
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - De-Dollarization Accelerates: Russia Launches SWIFT-Alternative Linking 91 Entities ............................ 841
NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - What if China, Russia Succeed in Going off the Dollar? ............................................................................. 842
NEW-RESERVE CURRENCY - Asian Infrastructure Investment bank challenges U.S. supremacy ......................................................... 843
NEW-RESERVE CURRENCY - March the moment the US lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. ................. 845
NEW-RESERVE CURRENCY - - It just happened: The moment the United States lost its role . . . ....................................................... 847
RESERVE CURRENCY - The World Is Beginning To Bypass America's Financial & Legally-Leveraged Political Power ....................... 848
RESERVE CURRENCY - Putin Adviser Proposes "Anti-Dollar Alliance ................................................................................................... 849
RESERVE CURRENCY - Chinese, Swiss Central Banks Sign Bilateral Swap Agreement ....................................................................... 850
RESERVE CURRENCY - France, Brazil, India & Now South Korea Join Russia & China In Post-Dollar World Order ............................ 851
RESERVE CURRENCY - Frances Noyer Says BNP May Prompt Shift Away From Dollar ...................................................................... 853
RESERVE CURRENCY - More Russian Companies Set To Drop Dollar, Switch To Chinese Yuan ........................................................ 854
RESERVE CURRENCY - Russia, China sign deal to bypass U.S. dollar .................................................................................................. 855
RESERVE CURRENCY - Japan May Eclipse China Again, as Largest Holder of US Treasuries ...................................................... 856
EMERGING & FRONTIER MARKETS - Capital Outflows ............................................................................................................................... 858
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ......................................................................................................................................................................... 858
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 862
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Markets Facing Both Capital Out Flows and Falling Currencies ................................................................... 862
NEW-CHARTS Wide Spread Emerging Market Capital Out Flows ......................................................................................................... 863
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market Debt versus GDP - 2013 .................................................................................................................... 864
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Market Resilience Indicator Changes ............................................................................................................. 864
CHARTS BRIC Countries Responsible for 43% of Global Growth .......................................................................................................... 865
CHARTS BRIC & Emerging Market Inflation Rates ................................................................................................................................. 865
CHARTS Emerging Market Default Probability ........................................................................................................................................ 866
CHARTS Emerging Market versus Developed Market Public Debt and External Borrowing Positions .................................................. 866
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows........................................................................................................................................................ 867
CHARTS Emerging Market Outflows -2 ................................................................................................................................................... 867
CHARTS Developed versus Emerging Equity Markets 1990-2014 ...................................................................................................... 868
CHARTS Total GEM Flows....................................................................................................................................................................... 868
CHARTS The Emerging Markets Have Been Weakening Since 2011 .................................................................................................... 869
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 870
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - JP Morgan Has A "Problem" With Emerging Markets ............................................................................. 870
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" ...................................................... 873
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Emerging markets: The great unraveling ................................................................................................. 875
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Moodys warns on EM dollar finance costs .............................................................................................. 880
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - XX ............................................................................................................................................................. 881
EMERGING MARKETS - Fragile Five: The new focus of currency wars ............................................................................................... 882
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Redux? ..................................................................................................................................................... 883
EMERGING MARKETS - Losing Their Punch ......................................................................................................................................... 887
EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On!............................................................................................................................................................. 890
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................... 891
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted ................................................................................................................................ 893
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................... 894
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................... 900
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................... 905
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ..................................................... 909
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain .......................................... 911
GEO-ECONOMICS OF ENERGY & PETRO$ - Petro$$ Coming Unglued .......................................................................................................... 914
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................... 914
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 917
NEW-ENERGY Saudi Crude Oil Production & Brent Price ...................................................................................................................... 917
NEW-ENERGY World Liquids Percent of Production .............................................................................................................................. 917
NEW-ENERGY Interest Rates & Oil Prices in 2015 Dollars .................................................................................................................... 918
NEW-ENERGY Oil Production and CAPEX by Operating Environment 2014 ........................................................................................ 918
NEW-ENERGY Global Drilling Intensity Will Increase ............................................................................................................................. 919
ENERGY Most US shale play costs are below $80 a barrel Challenged when approaching $60 ...................................................... 919
ENERGY Breakeven for All Global Oil Projects ....................................................................................................................................... 920
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey ................................................................................ 921
ENERGY Putin Cancels South Stream through Bulgaria To Go Through Turkey ................................................................................ 922
ENERGY Petro$$ Capital Exports Go Negative for First Time in 18 Years ............................................................................................ 923
ENERGY Falling Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices ................................................................................................................................ 924
ENERGY US v Saudi Oil Production now Equal at near 12B bl/Day ....................................................................................................... 925
ENERGY US Shale Oil Breakeven Prices ................................................................................................................................................ 926
ENERGY OPEC Announcement Crushes Ruble & WTI Crude ............................................................................................................... 926
ENERGY USDRUB Rise Means Russian Loans in US$ In Big Trouble- Investment Collapse .............................................................. 927
ENERGY EM Oil Producers Being Crushed ............................................................................................................................................ 927
ENERGY Market Cap Impacts of OPEC Decision ................................................................................................................................... 928
July 2015 Edition


ENERGY Oil Supply / Demand and Price ................................................................................................................................................ 929

RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................... 930
NEW-RUSSIA- XXXX............................................................................................................................................................................... 930
RUSSIA- Putin Kills "South Stream" Pipeline, Will Build New Massive Pipeline To Turkey Instead ...................................................... 930
RUSSIA- OPEC Presents: QE4 And Deflation ........................................................................................................................................ 933
RUSSIA Energy War ............................................................................................................................................................................. 935
NEW-PETRODOLLAR The Saudis And US Collusion Behind the Falling Oil Prices ................................................................ 938
NEW-PETRODOLLAR Who Is Saudi Arabia Really Targeting In Its Price War? .................................................................... 942
PETRODOLLAR "There Will Be Blood": Petrodollar Death Ignites Liquidity And Oil-Exporting Crisis ............................. 947
PETRODOLLAR Collapsing PetroDollar Foundation ........................................................................................................................... 953
UKRAINE - Pulled between EU v Russia ................................................................................................................................................ 957
UKRAINE - Pulled between An Ethnic Eastern and Western Ukraine .................................................................................................... 957
UKRAINE - Pulled between Economic Inequality Factors ....................................................................................................................... 958
UKRAINE - Pulled between the Global Military Balance ......................................................................................................................... 959
UKRAINE - Pulled by Global Financial Markets ...................................................................................................................................... 960
UKRAINE - A Deep State Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 963
ENERGY China Uses Crude Drop to Build Strategic Oil Reserve ....................................................................................................... 966
ENERGY - The Shale Bust Arrives: November Permits For New Shale Wells Tumble 15% ................................................................. 967
ENERGY - Crude Crash Slams Venezuelan Bonds To Close At 5-Year Lows: 21% Yield ...................................................... 968
ENERGY - The Oil Price Decline ............................................................................................................................................................. 970
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 2................................................................................................................................... 977
ENERGY - The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 1 ........................................................................................................................... 979
ENERGY - OPEC Presents: QE4 and Deflation ...................................................................................................................................... 982
ENERGY - The Sellside Chimes In On The Crude Crush: "This Will Reverberate For Years" ............................................... 987
ENERGY - OPEC Decision "Major Strike Against", Russian Tycoon Says Shale Oil Doesnt Work < $80bl ..................................... 988
ENERGY - Energy Quakes as OPEC Stands Pat ................................................................................................................................... 990
ENERGY - World's Largest Rig Operator, The "Recovery" Is Now Worse Than The Post-Lehman Crash ........................................... 993
ENERGY - US "Secret" Deal with Saudis Backfires After Oil Minister Says US Should Cut First ......................................................... 996
ENERGY - The 2014 Oil Price Crash Explained ............................................................................................................................. 1000
ENERGY - Crude and Credit Warn Of The Elongated Cycle Double Peak ............................................................................... 1005
ENERGY - Major Inflection Point Coming Near-Term In Energy Prices ............................................................................................... 1012
ENERGY - Russia Prepares Mega-Deal with India after Locking Up China With "Holy Grail" Gas Deal ............................................. 1015
ENERGY - Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China ................................................................................. 1017
ENERGY - The Growing Rift with Saudi Arabia Threatens To Severely Damage the Petrodollar .............................................. 1019
PRIOR REPORT UPDATES & EDITIONS.......................................................................................................................................................... 1023
CHINAs CREDIT GROWTH Reverses Direction .......................................................................................................................................... 1023
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................. 1023
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1024
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinese Bank Asset Growth Dwarfs Developed Economies Central Banks .......................................................... 1024
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Official GDP Growth Rate Continues to Fall .............................................................................................. 1025
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 1025
CHINA LIQUIDITY Chinas Inflation Rate versus Real Interest Rate .................................................................................................... 1026
CHINA LIQUIDITY Bank Loan Growth ................................................................................................................................................... 1026
CHINA LIQUIDITY Policy Rate, RRR and Loan Growth ........................................................................................................................ 1027
CHINA LIQUIDITY Declining Private Sector Fixed Asset Investment ................................................................................................... 1027
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Third of Chinese GDP Now Goes to Repay Interest and Principle on Existing Loans ............................................ 1028
CHINA LIQUIDITY Infrastructure Investment Offsets Weak Real Estate .............................................................................................. 1029
CHINA LIQUIDITY Shadow Banks Step Back Into Light ....................................................................................................................... 1029
CHINA LIQUIDITY Hopes that Credit Growth Will Spur Property Sales ................................................................................................ 1030
CHINA LIQUIDITY Transport, Construction Data Point to Slower Growth ............................................................................................ 1030
CHINA LIQUIDITY Little Impetus for Turnaround in Investor Sentiment ............................................................................................... 1031
CHINA LIQUIDITY Industrial Output & Exports Continue to Trend the Wrong Way ............................................................................. 1032
CHINA LIQUIDITY GDP Growth Trend .................................................................................................................................................. 1032
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1033
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - Hugh Hendry - Why China's Biggest Bear, Became One Of Its Biggest Bulls .............................................. 1033
NEW-CHINA LIQUIDITY - Three Reasons China May Cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio .................................................................. 1037
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Reverses Direction and Begins Easing .................................................................................................................... 1038
CHINA LIQUIDITY - One Rate Cut Probably Not Sufficient to Sustain China's Growth ........................................................................... 1039
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Troubling Signs of Deflation in China ....................................................................................................................... 1040
CHINA LIQUIDITY - The Next Phase of Chinas Financial Deepening .................................................................................................... 1042
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Steady decline in private sector activity ................................................................................................................... 1043
CHINA LIQUIDITY - China Credit Risk Overshadows Outlook for Emerging Equities ............................................................................. 1044
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Easy Money Wont Solve Chinas Hard Problems .............................................................................................. 1047
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Housing Bubble Restricting PBOC Actions ........................................................................................................ 1049
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Squeezing Banks towards Reducing Speculative Risk .......................................................................... 1052
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Overnight Repo at 25% .......................................................................................................................................... 1053
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Red Flags ................................................................................................................................................................. 1054
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Credit Fueled Growth ............................................................................................................................................. 1056
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Shadow Banking System Showing Signs of Implosion ..................................................................................... 1061
CHINA LIQUIDITY - PBOC Wants to Hold the Line on Explosive Credit Expansion through A Liquidity Squeeze ...................... 1064
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Potentially De-Stabilizing Cash Crunch ............................................................................................................... 1066
CHINA LIQUIDITY - Chinese Liquidity Pump Unplugged .................................................................................................................... 1067
GOLD WARS Failing Developed Economies versus Rising Emerging Economies ................................................................................ 1069
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1071
10
July 2015 Edition


GOLD WARS Plummeting Gold Holdings at NY Fed from Foreign Repatriation .................................................................................. 1071
GOLD WARS Gold : Debt Ratio Correlation Something Seriously Amiss! ......................................................................................... 1071
GOLD WARS Nominal & Real Price of Gold 1790-2013 .................................................................................................................... 1073
GOLD WARS Gold v S&P 500 Against True Austrian Money Supply ................................................................................................... 1073
GOLD WARS Swiss National Bank Gold, FX & Total Assets ................................................................................................................ 1074
GOLD WARS Sovereign Gold Holdings According to the World Gold Council ..................................................................................... 1074
GOLD WARS European Countries Gold Reserves Repatriation ........................................................................................................... 1075
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1076
GOLD WARS - Federal Reserve Confirms Biggest Foreign Gold Withdrawal in Over Ten Years ........................................................... 1076
GOLD WARS - European Nations Repatriate Gold Reserves from United States Vaults ....................................................................... 1077
GOLD WARS - Gold Shortage, Worst in 21st Century, And India Just Made It Worse ............................................................................ 1080
GOLD WARS - Deutsche Bank's Modest Proposal To Central Banks: "Purchase The Gold Held By Private Households" ................... 1082
INTERNATIONAL BANKING & SHADOW BANKING ......................................................................................................................................... 1084
DEBT Growth of Financial Services ....................................................................................................................................................... 1087
DEBT REITS & CMBS Growth ............................................................................................................................................................... 1087
DEBT - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP...................................................................................................................................................... 1089
DEBT - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED DEBTORS ............................................................................................................................ 1091
FOOD PRICES & SHORTAGES Potential Disruption................................................................................................................................... 1092
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1092
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1093
CHARTS Cost of Thanksgiving Food ..................................................................................................................................................... 1093
CHARTS Consumer Price Increases Predominately Food in Emerging Economies ............................................................................ 1093
CHARTS Sticker Shock in Isle 1 ............................................................................................................................................................. 1094
CHARTS Food Importers ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1094
CHARTS US Beef Production To Reach 5 Years of Decline ................................................................................................................. 1095
CHARTS US CPI Turns Up on Food & Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 1096
CHARTS CRB US Spot Foodstuff Index One Year ............................................................................................................................ 1096
CHARTS CRB Food Index One Year .................................................................................................................................................. 1098
CHARTS Global Food Price Change 2007-2013 ................................................................................................................................... 1099
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1100
CHARTS Food Prices Spiking Up .......................................................................................................................................................... 1101
CHARTS Retail Food Services and Drinking Place Sales ..................................................................................................................... 1101
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures .......................................................................................................................................... 1102
CHARTS Retail CRE Price/ Cost Pressures - 2 ..................................................................................................................................... 1103
CHARTS Spiking Beef Prices ................................................................................................................................................................. 1104
CHARTS Coffee Futures ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1104
CHARTS Lean Hog Futures ................................................................................................................................................................... 1105
CHARTS Ukraine Corn and Wheat Prices Up 15% Since YB ............................................................................................................ 1105
CHARTS Global Food Imports versus % Y-o-Y US$ Change ............................................................................................................... 1106
CHARTS UK Food Retailers v Commodity Food Price Index ................................................................................................................ 1106
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1107
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices Surge as Drought Exacts a High Toll on Crops .................................................................................. 1107
FOOD INFLATION - Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest ..................................................................................................................... 1110
FOOD INFLATION - Food Price Manipulation in Thailand........................................................................................................................ 1110
CURRENCY WARS BACK ON Rate Wars Reversed With Un-Taper ............................................................................................................. 1112
CURRENCY WARS - A Major Shift ............................................................................................................................................................. 1112
BATTLEFIELD - Combatants & Belligerents............................................................................................................................................. 1117
BATTLEFIIELD - The Race to Debase ....................................................................................................................................................... 1118
JAPAN - The Destabilizing Agent .................................................................................................................................................................. 1120
EUROPE - Euro Exposed .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1120
ARGENTINA - Here we Go Again! ................................................................................................................................................................ 1122
VENEZUELLA - Bad Situation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1123
BRAZIL - No One Wants to Listen ................................................................................................................................................................. 1123
SWITZERLAND - No Choice ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1123
SINGAPORE - Hot Money ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1124
UK- Pound Joins War .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1125
CYBER WARS Growing Threat & the Security-Surveillance Complex ............................................................................................................ 1126
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - NSA Whistleblower Example: Booz Hamilton ..................................................................... 1129
SECURITY SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Growing Without Public Control or Supervision! ............................................................... 1132
CYBER SPYING ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1133
REGIONAL ........................................................................................................................................... 1133

NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ON GREECE ............................................................................................................................................ 1133
EU WEAK BUT SOME POSITIVE ECONOMIC NEWS ........................................................................................................ 1137

CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1139
NEW-CHARTS Bond Rout Reduces Negative Yielding Govt Debt by ~1T Euros ................................................................................ 1139
NEW-CHARTS Eurozone GDP Since 1999 ........................................................................................................................................... 1139
NEW-CHARTS "Real GDP in the Euro area is lagging behind other major economies since the...Crisis" ........................................... 1140
NEW-CHARTS "European firms are paying out more of their earnings as dividends than US firms are." ........................................... 1141
11
July 2015 Edition


NEW-CHARTS "Over 1/2 of all government bonds yield less than 1%." ............................................................................................... 1142
NEW-CHARTS A weaker Euro has been good for the STOXX 600 ...................................................................................................... 1143
NEW-CHARTS Eurozone equity inflows continue to rise....................................................................................................................... 1143
NEW-CHARTS YTD flows into European equity funds .......................................................................................................................... 1143
NEW-CHARTS 3 Mo EURIBOR Drops to -0.001% - Below Zero for First Time? ................................................................................. 1144
NEW-CHARTS Negative Yields Have Become the New Norm in the Euro area ................................................................................. 1144
NEW-CHARTS "Swiss Government Becomes First Ever To Issue 10Y Debt At A Negative Yield" ..................................................... 1145
NEW-CHARTS Feb Retail Sales Y-o-Y +3.0% versus 2.8% est. .......................................................................................................... 1145
CHARTS Draghi Had To Deliver or it would have been a Collateral Massacre..................................................................................... 1146
CHARTS EU Disconnect Between Equity Prices & Earnings and Dividends ........................................................................................ 1146
CHARTS Eurozone is the Biggest Drag on Global Profits ..................................................................................................................... 1147
CHARTS Eurozone Government & Private Debt 276% of GDP (Excluding Financials) ....................................................................... 1147
CHARTS EU PMIS Rolling Over ............................................................................................................................................................ 1148
CHARTS Eurozone Banks Too Big To Be Bailed Out! .......................................................................................................................... 1149
CHARTS Eurozone Area Consumer Confidence May Be Misleading ................................................................................................... 1150
CHARTS Eurozone GDP & Recession Pattern ...................................................................................................................................... 1150
CHARTS EU-Area PMI Shows Sustained Deterioration ........................................................................................................................ 1151
th
CHARTS Euro Area CPI Seen Below 1% for 11 Month ....................................................................................................................... 1151
CHARTS Euro Area Domestic Demand has lagged US & Japan by 9% since 2010 ............................................................................ 1152
CHARTS Euro Area Inflation Levels ....................................................................................................................................................... 1153
CHARTS Geo-Political Tensions May Weigh on Confidence ................................................................................................................ 1154
CHARTS Stalling Euro-Area Recovery Heightens ECB QE Pressure ................................................................................................... 1154
CHARTS Industrial Production Slows In Line With PMIs ....................................................................................................................... 1155
CHARTS ZEW Expectations Signals Slowdown Ahead ........................................................................................................................ 1156
CHARTS Euro-Area July PMI ................................................................................................................................................................. 1156
CHARTS Corporate Borrowing Spreads Remain Wide ......................................................................................................................... 1157
CHARTS ECB Less Accommodative Than the Fed ............................................................................................................................... 1157
CHARTS EU Financial Conditions Deteriorating .................................................................................................................................... 1158
CHARTS EU Confidence ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1159
CHARTS - Slow Money Growth May Stoke Deflation Concerns .............................................................................................................. 1159
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation at Lowest Level Since 2009 Individual Countries ................................................................................. 1160
CHARTS - Euro-Area Inflation Aggregate .............................................................................................................................................. 1161
CHARTS - 10M Part-Time Workers Underemployed in EU ...................................................................................................................... 1162
CHARTS - Euro-Area Housing Prices Decline .......................................................................................................................................... 1163
CHARTS - Euro-Area Trade Surplus ......................................................................................................................................................... 1164
CHARTS - Euro-Area Composite PMI ....................................................................................................................................................... 1165
CHARTS - EU Area Weakness ................................................................................................................................................................. 1166
CHARTS - EU Area GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1167
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1168
CHARTS - EU Area PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1169
CHARTS - EU Real Rates ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1170
CHARTS - EU -NON Euro Members GDP RELIANCE ............................................................................................................................. 1171
CHARTS - EU GLOBAL GDP GROWTH CONTRIBUTION ..................................................................................................................... 1172
CHARTS - EU PMI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1172
CHARTS - EU CPI ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1174
CHARTS - Regional Risk-Reward ............................................................................................................................................................. 1175
CHARTS - Europe's "Core" Problem is France ......................................................................................................................................... 1176
CHARTS - Germany's Preoccupation with Inflation is More Than It Would Seem ................................................................................... 1179
CHARTS - Evidence OF Global Slowing Now Indisputable ...................................................................................................................... 1180
CHARTS - EU Credit Downgrades, France and UK On Tap .................................................................................................................... 1182
CHARTS - Perceived Reduction in Risk, A Temporary Aberration ........................................................................................................... 1184
CHARTS - Dangerous Delusional Divergences ........................................................................................................................................ 1186
CHARTS - IMF Projections for Euro Area and GIIPS ............................................................................................................................... 1187
CHARTS - Air Cargo Shipments Confirm Slowing Global Growth ............................................................................................................ 1188
CHARTS - Eurozone Misery Indices Never Been Higher ......................................................................................................................... 1189
CHARTS - Euro Currency .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1191
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1196
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1197
RESEARCH The Broken Model of the Eurozone ................................................................................................................................... 1197
RESEARCH The Japanization of Europe in 9 This Time It Is Different Charts .................................................................................. 1198
RESEARCH Eurozone on cusp of triple-dip recession as German exports crumble ............................................................................ 1199
RESEARCH Euro Areas Stalling Industry No Support for GDP............................................................................................................ 1201
RESEARCH Early Warnings of Euro-Area Downturn Strengthen ECBs QE Case .............................................................................. 1201
RESEARCH ECB Rate Decision ............................................................................................................................................................ 1203
RESEARCH Euro-Area Data Deterioration Points Toward QE ............................................................................................................. 1206
RESEARCH ECB v FEDERAL RESERVE ............................................................................................................................................. 1207
RESEARCH The ECBs Negative Deposit Rate .................................................................................................................................... 1209
RESEARCH EU Version of QE Coming -> UST Purchases to Drive Euro Down ................................................................................. 1211
RESEARCH Beware of EU Banks! ......................................................................................................................................................... 1213
RESEARCH Emerging Markets Aggravates Festering Banking Problems ........................................................................................... 1213
RESEARCH European Banks Have $3 Trillion of Exposure To Emerging Markets .............................................................................. 1216
RESEARCH - EFSF Downgraded to AA+ ................................................................................................................................................. 1218
RESEARCH - EU Stabilization Programs Are Presently Very Fragile ...................................................................................................... 1219
RESEARCH - Spreads Widened in Peripherals and Significantly in Portugal and Greece ...................................................................... 1222
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1224
PROGNOSIS: Why the European Situation Will Get Worse ..................................................................................................................... 1224
PROGNOSIS: Increasing Structural Imbalances ...................................................................................................................................... 1227
12
July 2015 Edition


PROGNOSIS: $22T Unaccounted - A Hidden World of Contingent Liabilities, Government Backing & Guarantees.............................. 1229
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's LTRO Not a Solution but ................................................................................................... 1234
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB's SMP Effort Futile ............................................................................................................... 1237
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - ECB Accepts BBB Collateral ....................................................................................................... 1239
PROGNOSIS: EU Banking Overbanked, Undercapitalized and Now Insolvent ....................................................................................... 1240
PROGNOSIS: Monetary Malpractice - TARGET2 "Contingent Liabilities" ............................................................................................... 1241
PROGNOSIS: Bailouts - Unsustainable & Unfundable ............................................................................................................................. 1247
ITALY FALLING BIRTH RATE & "MIGRANT BOAT PEOPLE" MOUNTING PROBLEMS ............................................................................. 1249
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1250
NEW-CHARTS - ITALY Quarterly GDP Growth ..................................................................................................................................... 1250
CHARTS - ITALY 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.3% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................... 1250
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................ 1252
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Core Inflation ................................................................................................................................................... 1252
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Industrial Porduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1253
CHARTS - ITALY Meal Affordability Deteriorates .................................................................................................................................. 1254
CHARTS - ITALY Falling Oil & Gas Consumption ................................................................................................................................. 1255
CHARTS - ITALY Italian Bond Yields ..................................................................................................................................................... 1255
CHARTS - ITALY Slips Back Into Recession ......................................................................................................................................... 1256
CHARTS - ITALY 10 Year Bond Yields Fall to Record Low .................................................................................................................. 1257
CHARTS - ITALY - Forced Rate Cuts ....................................................................................................................................................... 1258
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1259
NEW-RESEARCH Demographic Devastation: Italy's Birth Rate Drops To 150 Year Low .................................................................... 1259
RESEARCH Italy Falls Back Into Recession, Raising Concerns for Eurozone ..................................................................................... 1261
RESEARCH - Italys Downward Spiral ...................................................................................................................................................... 1264
RESEARCH - Italys Budget Failures, Weak Growth Outlook Call Debt Sustainability Into Question ..................................................... 1266
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1270
ITALIAN ELECTION - What You Need to Know ....................................................................................................................................... 1270
ITALIAN ELECTION - Europe Capitulates On Austerity- Never Had The Stomach For It ....................................................................... 1271
ITALIAN ELECTION - Message Given By the People .............................................................................................................................. 1273
ITALIAN ELECTION - Bad Debt Continue to Soar .................................................................................................................................... 1277
ITALIAN ELECTION - Italians React Badly to Austerity, Elections Hardly a Surprise! ............................................................................. 1279
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #1 ............................................................................................................................... 1280
ITALIAN ELECTION - EUROPEAN FEEDBACK - #2 ............................................................................................................................... 1282
ITALIAN ELECTION - Regional Financial Cracks in Sicily........................................................................................................................ 1285
FRANCE ASTOUNDING HIGH # OF PEOPLE DON'T HAVE FAITH IN HOLLANDE.................................................................................... 1287
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1287
CHARTS FRANCE Industrial production stagnated in February - 15% below pre-crisis levels. ........................................................ 1287
CHARTS FRANCE Bankruptcies Soar as Profitability Slumps ........................................................................................................... 1287
CHARTS FRANCE Post Hollande Election Results Jobseekers and 10 Year Yield ....................................................................... 1287
CHARTS FRANCE French Job Seekers ............................................................................................................................................. 1288
CHARTS FRANCE Inflation Expectations ........................................................................................................................................... 1288
CHARTS - FRANCE Hollande Popularity Gap Heading for a Record Low ........................................................................................... 1290
CHARTS - FRANCE Austerity Doesnt Get You Re-Elected ................................................................................................................. 1290
CHARTS - FRANCE Worlds Worst PMI Ranking in June ..................................................................................................................... 1291
CHARTS - FRANCE Near-record high bankruptcies and record-low profitability .................................................................................. 1292
CHARTS - FRANCE Frances PMI Trend Weakness Beginning to Stand Out...................................................................................... 1292
CHARTS - FRANCE Manufacturing Divergence With Germany Widens .............................................................................................. 1293
CHARTS - FRANCE - GDP ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1294
CHARTS - FRANCE - UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................ 1295
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUDGET DEFICIT ................................................................................................................................................. 1296
CHARTS - FRANCE - TAX v GDP ............................................................................................................................................................ 1297
CHARTS - FRANCE - BUSINESS CONFIDENCE.................................................................................................................................... 1298
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1299
RESEARCH Economic Malaise Sparks Political Crisis in France ......................................................................................................... 1299
RESEARCH - France In "Political Turmoil" After Hollande Unexpectedly Dissolves Government .......................................................... 1301
RESEARCH Prime Minister Manuel Vall Resigns .................................................................................................................................. 1303
RESEARCH - European Voters Are Revolting; France Warns "Situation Is Grave for France, Europe" ................................................. 1303
RESEARCH - Steady Breakdown Underway ............................................................................................................................................ 1306
RESEARCH - France Loses its Coveted and NEEDED AAA Rating........................................................................................................ 1310
SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1312
NEW-FRANCE - An astoundingly high number of French people don't have faith in Hollande 05-02-15 BI ........................................... 1312
NEW-FRANCE - French utility EDF seeks to cut workers 10-week holiday quota 05-26-15 FT ............................................................. 1312
FRANCE - What You Need to Know ......................................................................................................................................................... 1314
FRANCE - Key Indicators .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1315
FRANCE: Sharpest Drop in Private Sector Output in Four Years ............................................................................................................ 1318
FRANCE - Quits on Austerity - Never a Doubt This Would Happen ......................................................................................................... 1321
FRANCE - Socialism is Expensive ............................................................................................................................................................ 1322
FRANCE - Has Turned back to Socialism ................................................................................................................................................. 1324
FRANCE - Losing Its Way through Political Illusions and Lies ................................................................................................................. 1325
FRANCE - Uncompetitive .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1326
FRANCE - Titan Tire Calls Out French Labor ........................................................................................................................................... 1328
FRANCE - France Responds to Titan Tire ................................................................................................................................................ 1330
FRANCE - What Happens In France When Companies Fire People ....................................................................................................... 1332
FRANCE - Hollande's Economically Insane campaign Promise ............................................................................................................... 1333
13
July 2015 Edition


GERMANY GERMANY VERSUS GREECE .................................................................................................................................................... 1334

CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1334
NEW-CHARTS - GERMANY GDP Growth ............................................................................................................................................ 1334
NEW-CHARTS - GERMANY 10-year Bund yields have now moved above JGB yields ....................................................................... 1335
NEW-CHARTS - GERMANY German Industrial Output -0.5% MM, +0.1% YY .................................................................................... 1336
NEW-CHARTS - GERMANY Germany now leading the way back up in Euro Zone ............................................................................ 1336
NEW-CHARTS - GERMANY On rolling bi-weekly basis, the 10-yr Bund yield rise of 43 bps is about as big as it gets in recent history
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1337
CHARTS - GERMANY - 1.179% 30 Year Bond Yield .............................................................................................................................. 1337
CHARTS - GERMANY 2 Year Sovereign Yield Goes Negative ............................................................................................................ 1337
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1338
CHARTS - GERMANY German & Japanese Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close .............................................................................. 1339
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Y European Yields........................................................................................................................................ 1340
CHARTS - GERMANY German Unemployment .................................................................................................................................... 1341
CHARTS - GERMANY German Core Inflation ....................................................................................................................................... 1341
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Sovereign Bund versus US10 Treasury .............................................................................................. 1341
CHARTS - GERMANY Expectations Component Peaked In January ................................................................................................... 1342
CHARTS - GERMANY Ifo Rolls-Over..................................................................................................................................................... 1342
CHARTS - GERMANY 10 Year Bund Below 1% ................................................................................................................................... 1343
CHARTS - GERMANY - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................... 1343
CHARTS - GERMANY - IFO Investor Confidence .................................................................................................................................... 1344
CHARTS - GERMANY - ZEW Expectations .............................................................................................................................................. 1345
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1347
NEW-RESEARCH - Bundesbank Blasts Draghi For Breaking Bailout Taboo .......................................................................................... 1347
RESEARCH - Five charts that show Germany is heading into recession 10-19-14 The Guardian.......................................................... 1348
RESEARCH - Draghi signaled additional monetary easing is likely to materialize - Possibly by September .......................................... 1351
RESEARCH - Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak.......................................................................................... 1353
RESEARCH - Merkel's Third Chancellorship Challenges ......................................................................................................................... 1354
RESEARCH - German Election - Merkel Begins Hunt for Coalition Partners........................................................................................... 1357
RESEARCH - Europe's Shadow Economy: As Big As Germany.............................................................................................................. 1358
GERMANY - Anti Euro AfD Party May Cost Merkel in Critical September Election ................................................................................. 1363
GERMANY - The Euro Crisis Escalation over Cyprus May Politically Cripple Merkel .............................................................................. 1364
GERMANY - Call for End of "Coercive Euro Association" ........................................................................................................................ 1366
UK UNEXPECTED ELECTION RESULTS - SEEMS EVERYONE WANTS OUT! CHARTS OF NOTE ........................................................ 1368
NEW-CHARTS - UK - U.K. productivity growth remains dismal. .............................................................................................................. 1368
NEW-CHARTS - UK - The UK's increasingly polarized politics ................................................................................................................ 1368
NEW-CHARTS - UK GBPUSD Volume trended higher into the election - above peak seen around the Scottish referendum. .......... 1368
NEW-CHARTS - UK The UK's financial sector has the highest exposure to China .............................................................................. 1369
NEW-CHARTS - UK UK retail sales -0.5% in March, biggest fall since May last year and breaking longest run of increases in 5 years
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1369
CHARTS - UK - Deficit One of Worst of Developed Economies ............................................................................................................... 1370
CHARTS - UK Private Sector Surplus Eliminated .................................................................................................................................. 1371
CHARTS - UK Self-Employment At Record High ...................................................................................................................................... 1371
CHARTS - UK Rate Voting Shows Preference for Inflation Report Months ............................................................................................. 1372
CHARTS - UK Below 2% Target But 2nd Highest in EU ......................................................................................................................... 1372
CHARTS - UK CPI Below Target for 7th Month ...................................................................................................................................... 1373
CHARTS - UK Real-Wage Decline Longest Since At Least 1964 ......................................................................................................... 1374
CHARTS - UK Wage-Neutral Unemployment Rate Falling .................................................................................................................... 1374
CHARTS - UK CPI Too Low for BOE and Falling .................................................................................................................................. 1375
CHARTS - UK GDP ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1376
CHARTS - UK Population Growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 1376
CHARTS - UK - Crushed Disposable Income ........................................................................................................................................... 1377
CHARTS - UK - BOE Balance Sheet Growth ............................................................................................................................................ 1378
CHARTS - UK - Lending ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1379
CHARTS - UK - Unemployment ................................................................................................................................................................ 1379
CHARTS - UK - GDP - Pre and Post Recession Levels ........................................................................................................................... 1380
CHARTS - UK - GDP ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1380
CHARTS - UK - BOE Rates ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1381
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1382
NEW-RESEARCH What Remains of the UK Middle? ............................................................................................................................ 1382
NEW-RESEARCH Clean Sweep by UK Conservatives Masks Huge Rifts ........................................................................................... 1383
NEW-RESEARCH Explaining UK's Dysfunctional Voting System; Where is British Politics Headed? Horse Trading ......................... 1385
RESEARCH Consensus See UK Rate Increase in February 2015 Possibility of November ............................................................. 1389
RESEARCH BOE Faces Labor Market Conundrum as Wage Growth Stalls ........................................................................................ 1390
RESEARCH - UK workers' wage squeeze is longest since the 1870s ..................................................................................................... 1393
UK - What you need to Know..................................................................................................................................................................... 1394
UK - Joins Currency War - Down 8% YTD ............................................................................................................................................. 1395
UK - Specter of Stagflation Haunts UK ...................................................................................................................................................... 1396
UK - Public Policy turns Against Austerity and PM Cameron ................................................................................................................... 1397
UK - Doomsday Debt Machine .................................................................................................................................................................. 1398
UK - QE Extension Coming ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1401
UK - Small Business Credit Squeeze Now Acute - Loan Rejections Rising ............................................................................................. 1403
14
July 2015 Edition


UK - Technically in a Depression ............................................................................................................................................................... 1404

IBERIAN PENINSULA SPANISH ELECTION & ASCENDING PORTUGAL SOCIALISTS SIGNAL TROUBLES ......................................... 1407
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1407
NEW-CHARTS - SPAIN Spanish Industrial Production Output +1.0% MM, +2.9% YY ......................................................................... 1407
NEW-CHARTS - PORTUGAL Share of Lower Skilled Workers ............................................................................................................. 1407
NEW-CHARTS - PORTUGAL Non-Performing Loans ............................................................................................................................ 1408
CHARTS - SPAIN 30 Year Bond Yield At 2.5% - Historic Low ................................................................................................................... 1409
CHARTS - SPAIN 10 Year Bond Yield At 2.37% - Historic Low ............................................................................................................. 1409
CHARTS - PORTUGAL Yields Hit Low After BES Bailout ..................................................................................................................... 1410
CHARTS - PORTUGAL - Deficit Problem ................................................................................................................................................. 1411
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1412
NEW-RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................ 1412
NEW-RESEARCH - Jitters over Spanish elections, Greece hit banks, euro ............................................................................................ 1414
RESEARCH - Presidential Warning Spikes Yields To 8 Months Highs .................................................................................................... 1418
RESEARCH - Clear Signs of Desperation In Spain from a Growing Collateral Contagion ...................................................................... 1420
RESEARCH - The Spanish Government's 'Bad Bank' Scam ................................................................................................................... 1421
IBERIA - Credit Downgrades - At Precipice of "Non Investment Grade" .................................................................................................. 1423
IBERIA - Regional Bailout Bailouts a Massive Problem ............................................................................................................................ 1424
IBERIA - NPL Going Ballistic ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1425
IBERIA - Spanish Funding Problem .......................................................................................................................................................... 1426
IBERIA - The Giant Spanish Housing Bubble, Now Beginning to Implode ............................................................................................... 1431
IBERIA - Mal-Investment Coming Home to Roost..................................................................................................................................... 1433
IBERIA - Bank Deposits Were Leaving, Now they Are Fleeing ................................................................................................................ 1434
IBERIA - Now a Capital Investment Problem ............................................................................................................................................ 1435
IBERIA - Banks on Artificial "Ponzi Bond" Life Support ............................................................................................................................ 1436
CHINA BEGINS EASING AS CAPITAL FLOWS OUT ......................................................................................................... 1445

NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ....................................................................................................................... 1445
NEW-BIZARRE STOCK MARKET ............................................................................................................................................................ 1445
NEW-GOLD BUYING ................................................................................................................................................................................ 1445
NEW-SOUTH SEA CONFLICT ................................................................................................................................................................. 1445
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1461
NEW-CHARTS China Plans to Spend Billions on Infrastructure in Pakistan......................................................................................... 1461
NEW-CHARTS Chinas Proposed Silk Road Routes ............................................................................................................................. 1461
NEW-CHARTS China Activity Proxy & Official GDP .............................................................................................................................. 1462
NEW-CHARTS China Relaxes Commercial Bank Reserves ................................................................................................................. 1462
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Balance of Payments ...................................................................................................................................... 1463
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Hot Money Flows ............................................................................................................................................ 1464
NEW-CHARTS Falling Chinese Industrial Production ........................................................................................................................... 1464
NEW-CHARTS Commodity Prices % Change Since July 2014 ............................................................................................................ 1465
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Steel Demand, Iron Ore .................................................................................................................................. 1465
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Rail Freight ...................................................................................................................................................... 1466
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Bank Assets versus US Bank Assets ............................................................................................................. 1467
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Leverage and Underlying Nominal GDP ........................................................................................................ 1467
NEW-CHARTS Measures of Real & Nominal GDP Growth in China .................................................................................................... 1468
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Total Debt & Breakdown ................................................................................................................................. 1468
NEW-CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts ................................................................................................................ 1469
NEW-CHARTS New Chinese Retail Stock Market Accounts-2 ............................................................................................................. 1470
NEW-CHARTS Plummeting Chinese Consumer Confidence ................................................................................................................ 1470
NEW-CHARTS Chinese PMI .................................................................................................................................................................. 1471
NEW-CHARTS Chinese Exports versus Taiwan-Korea-Japan ............................................................................................................. 1472
CHARTS - Falling Chinese Industrial Profits ............................................................................................................................................. 1472
CHARTS - Something Up (or rather down) with Chinese Currency? ....................................................................................................... 1472
CHARTS - Rising Margin Debt/Market Cap Ratio Suggests Liquidity m& Credit Risks ........................................................................... 1473
CHARTS - Corporate Bond Yields ............................................................................................................................................................. 1473
CHARTS - New Retail Stock Trading Accounts ........................................................................................................................................ 1474
CHARTS - Credit Growth 30% Above Trend for Private Sector Debt to GDP .......................................................................................... 1474
CHARTS - Falling Foreign Currency Reserves ......................................................................................................................................... 1475
CHARTS - 2 Year Yield Goes Negative .................................................................................................................................................... 1476
CHARTS - China Used More Cement in Last 3 Years than US in Entire 20th Century ............................................................................ 1476
CHARTS - China Real Activity Indicators Steel, Cement & Electricity ................................................................................................... 1477
CHARTS - Chinese Coal Consumption Falls ............................................................................................................................................ 1477
CHARTS - Chinese Y-o-Y Outstanding Credit & M2 ................................................................................................................................. 1478
CHARTS - Chinas Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio .............................................................................................................................. 1478
CHARTS - New Stock Market Trading Accounts ...................................................................................................................................... 1479
CHARTS Yuan Falls as Economy Weakens .......................................................................................................................................... 1480
CHARTS Yuans Currency Basket Composition .................................................................................................................................... 1480
CHARTS Yuan Diverges From Currency Basket ................................................................................................................................... 1481
CHARTS Industrial Output A Concern.................................................................................................................................................... 1481
CHARTS China On A Path Since 2008 That Historically Leads to A Currency Crisis........................................................................... 1482
CHARTS Borrowing Costs for Firms Remain High ................................................................................................................................ 1483
CHARTS Chinas Q1 GDP Deflator Falls to Zero .................................................................................................................................. 1483
CHARTS - Credit is Running Well Ahead of Economic Growth ................................................................................................................ 1485
CHARTS Productivity is Slumping As Debt Levels Soar........................................................................................................................ 1485
15
July 2015 Edition


CHARTS Chinas Gross Fixed Capital Formation Problem ................................................................................................................... 1485

CHARTS Chinese Investment Peaking .................................................................................................................................................. 1486
CHARTS China Equity Flows ................................................................................................................................................................. 1487
CHARTS Credit Accumulation Rate Growth Comparisons ................................................................................................................. 1487
CHARTS Chinese Credit Growth ............................................................................................................................................................ 1488
CHARTS 5 Year Debt Growth versus GDP ............................................................................................................................................ 1488
CHARTS 5 Year Credit Growth .............................................................................................................................................................. 1489
CHARTS Growth Propensity of Credit Growth..................................................................................................................................... 1490
CHARTS Chinas Bad Loans - NPL........................................................................................................................................................ 1491
CHARTS Slowing Steel Consumption .................................................................................................................................................... 1492
CHARTS Shadow Banking System ........................................................................................................................................................ 1492
CHARTS Dramatic Chinese Housing Slowdown ................................................................................................................................... 1494
CHARTS - CHINA - A Global Slowdown on the Verge of Contraction...................................................................................................... 1495
CHARTS - CHINA - Chinese Credit Market .............................................................................................................................................. 1496
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1496
CHARTS - CHINA - PMI-2 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1498
CHARTS - CHINA - GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1499
CHARTS - CHINA Industrial Output ....................................................................................................................................................... 1500
CHARTS - CHINA - Urban Fixed Asset Investment .................................................................................................................................. 1501
CHARTS - CHINA Retail Sales .............................................................................................................................................................. 1502
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1503
NEW-CHINA "New Silk Road" Could Change Global Economics Forever ............................................................................................ 1503
NEW-CHINA Beginning to Panic - China Easing to Combat The 'Darkest Period' of 2015 .................................................................. 1506
NEW-CHINA Skewed Heavily To The Downside," BNP Says ............................................................................................................... 1508
NEW-CHINA Economists seek to ease fears on Chinas record capital outflow ................................................................................... 1513
NEW-CHINA China sets up $16B Gold fund as part of Silk Road initiative ........................................................................................... 1516
NEW-CHINA The Real Reason China Is Buying Up the World's Gold .................................................................................................. 1516
NEW-CHINA China could crash US dollar with 30,000 tons of gold ...................................................................................................... 1519
NEW-CHINA Hard Landing Clearly Evident ........................................................................................................................................... 1520
RESEARCH OF NOTE PREVIOUS REPORT (Reference) ...................................................................................................................... 1524
CHINA The Next Peg To Fall The Yuan or Hong Kong Dollar? ....................................................................................................... 1524
CHINA Yuan Diverging From Its Trading Basket ................................................................................................................................... 1530
CHINA Signs of Madness in the Global Financial System ..................................................................................................................... 1532
CHINA Reverses Direction and Begins Easing ...................................................................................................................................... 1533
CHINA China's Economic Reporting Possibly a Deception ................................................................................................................... 1534
CHINA Yuan Diverging From Its Trading Basket ................................................................................................................................... 1536
CHINA - China Credit Risk Overshadows Outlook for Emerging Equities ................................................................................................ 1539
CHINA - Easy Money Wont Solve Chinas Hard Problems ...................................................................................................................... 1541
CHINA - China's Rehypothecation............................................................................................................................................................. 1543
CHINA - Asian Marginal Utility ................................................................................................................................................................... 1545
CHINA - Is China is Exporting Deflation Worldwide by Driving Down Yuan? ........................................................................................... 1547
CHINA - Someone Is Betting That The Chinese Currency Collapses By The End Of 2014Low-Hanging Fruit....................................... 1550
CHINA - Problems in the Target Redemption Forwards Derivatives market & Dim-Sum Bonds ............................................................. 1551
CHINA - Absence Of A Letter Of Credit!.................................................................................................................................................... 1552
CHINA - China Cracks down on Commodity Credit .................................................................................................................................. 1555
CHINA - Falling Yuan ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1557
CHINA - What Happens After the Low-Hanging Fruit Has Been Picked? ................................................................................................ 1559
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - CCFD (Chinese Commodity Funding Deals) ........................................................................................... 1562
CHINA - Cracks Beginning to Show .......................................................................................................................................................... 1564
CHINA - Has an Inflation Problem ............................................................................................................................................................. 1565
CHINA - Chinese Coal Producer Collapse a Major Shadow Banking Problem ........................................................................................ 1566
CHINA - China Orders Its Smaller Banks to Load Up On Cash ................................................................................................................ 1569
CHINA - How the Chinese Economic Disaster Scenario Could Unfold .................................................................................................... 1573
CHINA - Skilled Labor Shortages & Losing Labor Cost Advantage .......................................................................................................... 1575
CHINA - Launches Crackdown On "Off Balance Sheet" Credit ................................................................................................................ 1580
CHINA - China's Stunning $15 Trillion in New Liquidity - Part II ............................................................................................................... 1583
CHINA - China's Stunning $15 Trillion In New Liquidity ............................................................................................................................ 1585
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS & KEY NOTES ................................................................................................................................................... 1589
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Shadow Banking System Showing Signs of Implosion ............................................................................ 1591
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Shadow Banking and Credit Growth ........................................................................................................ 1594
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - The US Sub-Prime / CDO All Over Again ................................................................................................ 1597
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Report ....................................................................................................................................................... 1601
CHINA SHADOW BANKING - Situation .................................................................................................................................................... 1602
CHINA RESERVES - Distorted Foreign Reserve Levels .......................................................................................................................... 1603
CHINA RESERVES - Declining Reserve Accumulation ............................................................................................................................ 1605
CHINA RESERVES - Has Caught the Gold Bug big time! ........................................................................................................................ 1607
CHINA CURRENCY WARS - Hot Money into China ................................................................................................................................ 1609
CHINA - Withdraws Liquidity...................................................................................................................................................................... 1610
CHINA - Socit General Sees a Likely Soft Landing! .............................................................................................................................. 1612
CHINA - True Debt is Orders of Magnitude More than Officially Being Reported .................................................................................... 1620
CHINA - Evidence OF Slowing Now Indisputable ..................................................................................................................................... 1623
CHINA - PMI Improvement ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1624
CHINA - Political Transition & Ongoing Emergence as a Super Power ................................................................................................... 1627
CHINA - An Implicit Social Contract .......................................................................................................................................................... 1629
CHINA - Manipulated Statistics due to Upcoming Decade Long Regime Change ................................................................................... 1631
CHINA - Increasing Leverage is China's Way of Monetary Easing .......................................................................................................... 1632
CHINA - Possible Interest-Rate Liberalization........................................................................................................................................... 1633
16
July 2015 Edition


CHINA - Global Impact of China's Slowdown ............................................................................................................................................ 1634

CHINA - Shanghai Composite at 2008 Low Levels ................................................................................................................................... 1636
CHINA - Shanghai Composite Warnings Signs ......................................................................................................................................... 1637
CHINA - Credit to GDP .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1639
CHINA - A Slow Recovery Through 2013 ................................................................................................................................................. 1640
CHINA - Manufacturing PMI in Contraction Territory ................................................................................................................................ 1642
JAPAN: 43% OF TAX REVENUE ON DEBT INTEREST ................................................................................................................. 1645

CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1652
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Inventory Build Up Keeps Q1 GDP Afloat...................................................................................................... 1652
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN 48 Month Trade Balance Deficit ..................................................................................................................... 1652
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Y-o-Y Contracting Imports .............................................................................................................................. 1653
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Monetary Base versus USDJPY .................................................................................................................... 1653
NEW-CHARTS - JAPAN Japan National Debt Rises To 1,053,357,200,000,000 ............................................................................... 1654
CHARTS - JAPAN 1.174% 30 Year Bond Yield .................................................................................................................................... 1655
CHARTS - JAPAN 2 Year Yield Goes Negative..................................................................................................................................... 1655
CHARTS - JAPAN Savings Rate Goes Negative ................................................................................................................................... 1655
CHARTS - JAPAN Stagnate Housing Starts with Historic Low 35 Year Mortgages .............................................................................. 1656
CHARTS - JAPAN Non-Resident Net Investment in Japanese Stocks ................................................................................................. 1656
CHARTS - JAPAN Shifting Demographics - Birth versus Deaths .......................................................................................................... 1657
CHARTS JAPAN Nikkei Strength is all Relative ............................................................................................................................... 1657
CHARTS - JAPAN Trade Balance .......................................................................................................................................................... 1658
CHARTS - JAPAN 10 Year Treasury Approaching Zero (12-27-14) ..................................................................................................... 1659
CHARTS - JAPAN BOJ Reserve Balances ............................................................................................................................................ 1660
CHARTS - JAPAN Macro Crisis Zones .................................................................................................................................................. 1661
CHARTS - JAPAN Demographics .......................................................................................................................................................... 1661
CHARTS - JAPAN Fiscal Deficit versus BOJ Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................ 1662
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Economy versus the Rest of the World ...................................................................................................... 1662
CHARTS - JAPAN Japans Decline in Real Interest Rates .................................................................................................................... 1663
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese GDP Annualized Q-o-Q ........................................................................................................................... 1664
CHARTS - JAPAN Bankruptcies Due to Depreciating Yen .................................................................................................................... 1665
CHARTS - JAPAN Japanese & German Yield Curves Are Remarkably Close ...................................................................................... 1665
CHARTS Q2 GDP Downturn Even Worse Than Though or Looks........................................................................................................ 1667
CHARTS Real Incomes Falling at Fastest Rate in a Decade ................................................................................................................ 1667
CHARTS Japan Exports Remained Subdued ........................................................................................................................................ 1668
CHARTS Past Yen Strength Pushed Production Off-Shore .................................................................................................................. 1668
CHARTS Japans Export Majors Lost Tech Battle ................................................................................................................................. 1669
CHARTS Japans Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................ 1670
CHARTS Japan Adjusted Trade Balance ............................................................................................................................................... 1670
CHARTS Japan BoP Current Account Balance .................................................................................................................................. 1671
CHARTS 5T Yen of JGB Selling ............................................................................................................................................................. 1671
CHARTS Sovereign Debt % of Tax Revenue ........................................................................................................................................ 1672
CHARTS Public Sector Debt Issuances 2013 as % GDP ...................................................................................................................... 1673
CHARTS - GDP Trend ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1673
CHARTS - CPI Trend ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1674
CHARTS - JAPAN - GDP Resurgence ...................................................................................................................................................... 1674
CHARTS - JAPAN - BOJ Balance Sheet .................................................................................................................................................. 1675
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ................................................................................................................................. 1676
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1677
NEW-JAPAN Japan Now Spends 43% Of Tax Revenue To Fund Interest On Debt ............................................................................ 1677
NEW-JAPAN Japan Still the Worlds Top Credit? .................................................................................................................................. 1678
NEW-JAPAN Bank of Japan Relaxing All-Out Approach to Hitting Inflation Target .............................................................................. 1679
NEW-JAPAN Japanese trading firms to cut investments, sell assets .................................................................................................... 1680
JAPAN The BOJ Ups The Ante .............................................................................................................................................................. 1681
JAPAN Is Japan Kaput? ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1683
JAPAN - Pace of 60 to 70 trillion yen a year May Become "Open Ended" ............................................................................................... 1686
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 1687
JAPAN - 3 Arrows of ABE-nomics Not Working ........................................................................................................................................ 1690
JAPAN - Stalled Inflation Adds Pressure for Second Round of Stimulus ................................................................................................. 1692
JAPAN - Japanese Financial Repression - Changes in Allocation of Japanese Retirement Accounts Coming ...................................... 1693
JAPAN - Japan bond market liquidity dries up as BoJ holding crosses 200tn........................................................................................ 1695
JAPAN - Abe Approval Rating Plunges ..................................................................................................................................................... 1697
JAPAN - What the Japanese been Buying ................................................................................................................................................ 1698
JAPAN - Japan May Matter More Than Tapering ..................................................................................................................................... 1700
JAPAN - Japan Finances Worse than at Wars End ................................................................................................................................. 1703
JAPAN - BOJ: "The days of constructive ambiguity is over! .................................................................................................................. 1704
JAPAN - Abenomics Third Arrow Growth Strategy Underwhelms .......................................................................................................... 1705
JAPAN - 2nd ABE-nomics $200B Stimulus Package Approved ............................................................................................................... 1707
JAPAN - Worlds Biggest Pension Fund Sees Japan Fail on ABE-nomics' 2% Inflation Goal ................................................................. 1708
JAPAN - The Abe-nomics Failure .............................................................................................................................................................. 1711
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT & KEY NOTES .......................................................................................................................................... 1713
JAPAN - What You Need to Know............................................................................................................................................................. 1715
JAPAN - No Way Out But to Expand the Monetary Base ......................................................................................................................... 1718
JAPAN - BOJ to "Own" 100% of GDP in 5 Years...................................................................................................................................... 1718
JAPAN - Adjusted trade deficit the worst in Bloomberg's 20 year history ................................................................................................. 1722
17
July 2015 Edition


JAPAN - How Japan's National Debt Grew ............................................................................................................................................... 1723

JAPAN - ABE-nomics About Lowering Real Interest Rates ...................................................................................................................... 1724
JAPAN - Japanese Bonds Have Lost Their Ability to Price Risk .............................................................................................................. 1725
JAPAN - Japanese Structural Problems a "Canary" for Western Developed Economies ........................................................................ 1728
JAPAN - Shinzo Abe Hasn't the Stomach for the Heavy Lifting Needed to Accompany ABE-nomics. .................................................... 1730
JAPAN - A Credit Squeeze Leads Deflationary Leg Down ....................................................................................................................... 1733
JAPAN - Some Japanese Policies Have Clearly Hit the Limit .................................................................................................................. 1734
JAPAN - The ABE (Asset Bubble Evaluator) Index ................................................................................................................................... 1736
JAPAN - Regional Risk-Reward ................................................................................................................................................................ 1737
JAPAN - Now the Frontrunner of Outright Monetization. .......................................................................................................................... 1738
JAPAN - Yen Devaluation .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1739
JAPAN - New Bank of Japan Policy - 2% Inflation in 2 Years .................................................................................................................. 1740
JAPAN - Appoints BOJ Governor Firmly Committed to Printing Money ................................................................................................... 1742
JAPAN - Third Straight Quarter of Recession ........................................................................................................................................... 1743
JAPAN - Full Out War on Deflation ............................................................................................................................................................ 1743
JAPAN - First Test of the new found dominance of the Central Banks .................................................................................................. 1745
JAPAN - BOJ Was Next Up. No Surprise .................................................................................................................................................. 1747
JAPAN - Negative Current Account Balance and -3.5% Recession ......................................................................................................... 1749
JAPAN - A 50% Over-Valued Yen Has Undermined Self Confidence & Drive ......................................................................................... 1752
JAPAN - Proves QE's Low Cost of Capital Does Structural Damage to Economy................................................................................... 1754
JAPAN - BOJ Being Pressured to "Rip-Up Government Debt"1 ............................................................................................................... 1756
JAPAN - Easy Money Has Hurt Corporate Profitability in the Longer Term ............................................................................................. 1762
JAPAN - The Biggest Debtor with the Biggest Problem! ........................................................................................................................... 1765
JAPAN - A Magnitude Larger Problem than Europe ................................................................................................................................. 1769
JAPAN - QE 9 A Complete Failure - Actually "Tightens" versus It's Intended Easing .............................................................................. 1775
JAPAN - Japanese Yen Continuously Under Attack ................................................................................................................................. 1779
JAPAN - Vast foreign US$ Coming Home for "Claim" .............................................................................................................................. 1780
JAPAN - PMI Breakdown ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1781
JAPAN - Exports Continue To Tumble ...................................................................................................................................................... 1783
JAPAN - Intervention Fails Again - It's a Whole new Ball Game............................................................................................................... 1784
JAPAN - First Signs of Massive Debt Monetization After Next Election ................................................................................................... 1787
JAPAN - Japan to the ESM's Rescue ........................................................................................................................................................ 1787
EMERGING MARKETS CHINA BAILS OUT BRAZIL WITH $50B.............................................................................................. 1789

EMERGING MARKETS ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1789
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1789
NEW-CHARTS AFRICA-Chinese Investment Offers in Africa Since 2000............................................................................................ 1789
NEW-CHARTS AFRICA-Foreign Direct Investment & Trade ................................................................................................................ 1790
NEW-CHARTS AFRICA-Geographic Comparisons ............................................................................................................................... 1790
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Markets Corporate Defaults.......................................................................................................................... 1791
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index ................................................................................................................ 1791
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Markets Currency Change versus USD ....................................................................................................... 1792
NEW-CHARTS Emerging Markets Change in Nominal Policy Rate ...................................................................................................... 1792
NEW-CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator..................................................................................... 1793
NEW-CHARTS EM Vulnerability to an external shock Resilience Indicator Change Since 2008 Crisis ......................................... 1794
CHARTS Falling EM Currencies ............................................................................................................................................................. 1795
CHARTS Post-China 16 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1796
CHARTS Economies Now Need More Debt to Generate Growth ......................................................................................................... 1797
CHARTS Emerging Markets Benchmark Underperforms US Index ...................................................................................................... 1797
CHARTS - Reserves versus World ............................................................................................................................................................ 1797
CHARTS - Current Account Balances versus GDP .................................................................................................................................. 1799
CHARTS - Emerging Markets Index versus MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................... 1800
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................ 1801
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Exports ............................................................................................................................................................ 1802
CHARTS - SOUTH KOREA ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1803
CHARTS - TURKEY - Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................. 1804
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1805
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - Here's Which Emerging Markets Are Most Vulnerable To "External Shock" ........................................ 1805
NEW-EMERGING MARKETS - North Korea: Chinese Outsourcing Giant ............................................................................................... 1807
EMERGING MARKETS - Forced Changes & Advancements in the Normal "Plundering" Strategy ........................................................ 1809
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted ................................................................................................................................. 1810
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ......................................................... 1811
EMERGING MARKETS - Negative Current Accounts + Weak(ening) International Investment Positioning ........................................... 1816
EMERGING MARKETS - "TAPER" Shock Waves Across Asia................................................................................................................ 1816
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Bond Yields React Together ................................................................................................................. 1818
EMERGING MARKETS - A Bumpy Ride for Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................... 1819
EMERGING MARKETS - Stunning Withdrawals ....................................................................................................................................... 1825
EMERGING MARKETS - Bond Outflows Accelerating ............................................................................................................................. 1826
EMERGING MARKETS - This will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem Like an Early Warning ................................................................ 1828
EMERGING MARKETS - Developing Nations Feeling the Pain of Global Deleveraging Acceleration .................................................... 1830
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" .................................................................................................................................... 1832
EMERGING MARKETS - What you Need to Know ...................................................................................................................................... 1836
EMERGING MARKETS - Comparative Ease of Doing Business ............................................................................................................. 1838
EMERGING MARKETS - Importance of Employment, Equality and Per Capital Income ........................................................................ 1839
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1842
18
July 2015 Edition


ASEAN: A New Common Market .............................................................................................................................................................. 1842

ASIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1846
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Demographic Peaks of Working Age Populations .............................................................................................. 1846
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Impact of Demographic Change on Annual GDP Growth .................................................................................. 1847
NEW-ASIA: CHARTS Worlds 50 Busiest Container-Shipping Seaports .............................................................................................. 1848
ASIA: CHARTS - REVENUE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1849
ASIA: CHARTS EXPENDITURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 1849
ASIA: CHARTS SPENDING GAPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 1851
ASIA: CHARTS DEBT SERVICE ........................................................................................................................................................... 1851
ASIA: CHARTS - SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................................................. 1853
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI May 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 1854
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 1854
ASIA: CHARTS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? .............................................................................................................................. 1855
ASIA: CHARTS Inflation Problems Abound ........................................................................................................................................... 1856
ASIA: CHARTS Healthier Public Debt and Borrowing Positions than DM ............................................................................................. 1856
ASIA: CHARTS - AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................................................... 1857
ASIA - Regional Risk-Reward .................................................................................................................................................................... 1858
ASIA - Credit Contraction Problems .......................................................................................................................................................... 1859
ASIA - Corporate Debt Levels Reflect Unintended Consequences of Mispricing & Mal-Investment ....................................................... 1861
ASIA - Synchronized Markets .................................................................................................................................................................... 1863
ASIA - Caution Advised Regarding Positive South Korea Export Turnaround ......................................................................................... 1865
ASIA - Export Growth Looks Similar to Pre-2008 ...................................................................................................................................... 1866
ASIA - Global Slowing Quickly a Worsening Situation Across Asia .......................................................................................................... 1870
ASIA - Risks All on the Downside for Asia ................................................................................................................................................ 1871
ASIA - Demographic Headwinds ............................................................................................................................................................... 1874
ASIA - Pronounced Flight to Singapore Safety ......................................................................................................................................... 1875
LATIN AMERICA ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1877
VENEZUELA Signs of a Crack-up Boom and Dictatorship .................................................................................................................... 1877
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation ............................................................................................................................................... 1877
MIDDLE EAST ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 1879
TURKEY ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1879
BRICS................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1886
BRICS Population, GDP,GDP per Capita .............................................................................................................................................. 1886
BRICS Responsible for 43% of Global Growth in 2013 ......................................................................................................................... 1887
BRICS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? ............................................................................................................................................ 1887
BRICS Inflation Problems Abound .......................................................................................................................................................... 1889
BRICS - EU Major Contributor to EM Current Account Deficit Growth ..................................................................................................... 1889
BRICS - Insufficient Levels Prompt Russian-Chinese Support ................................................................................................................. 1890
BRICS - A Development Bank-Forex Reserve Pool-African Integration ................................................................................................... 1892
BRICS - 40% of World Population and 25% of World GDP ...................................................................................................................... 1894
BRICS - $3 to $13B GDP in Ten Years ..................................................................................................................................................... 1897
BRICS- A World Wide Distrust of Financial Markets Building ................................................................................................................... 1899
BRAZIL........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1901
NEW-BRAZIL - China Bails Out Brazil In $50 Billion Regional Power Grab ............................................................................................. 1901
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazils Inflation-v Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Index ................................................................................... 1908
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazils Depressed Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................................ 1908
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazils Collapsing Confidence in the Construction Sector .............................................................................................. 1909
NEW-BRAZIL - Brazil's Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse ..................................................................................................... 1909
BRAZIL - Brazils Economy Just Imploded! ............................................................................................................................................... 1911
BRAZIL - Brazils economy slips into recession ........................................................................................................................................ 1914
BRAZIL - Inflation will remain high thanks to a "growth mismatch". .......................................................................................................... 1916
BRAZIL - Sharpest Decline in 2013 Growth Forecast ............................................................................................................................... 1917
RUSSIA Russia Has Stopped Trying to Protect Ruble Has FX Reserves Depleted. ................................................................................ 1920
RUSSIA 2015 Russia Consensus GDP Forecast .................................................................................................................................. 1921
RUSSIA Foreign Exchange Reserves .................................................................................................................................................... 1921
RUSSIA Exchange and Interest Rate ..................................................................................................................................................... 1922
RUSSIA - Real GDP and Car Sales .......................................................................................................................................................... 1922
RUSSIA Inflation Rate ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1923
RUSSIA GDP Forecast versus USDRUB ............................................................................................................................................... 1923
RUSSIA WTI Crude versus Ruble .......................................................................................................................................................... 1924
RUSSIA Russian Stocks versus Ruble, Russian 10 Y Yield versus 5Y CDS ........................................................................................ 1924
RUSSIA Russian CDS Spreads ............................................................................................................................................................. 1925
RUSSIA Winners and Losers of Oil Price Plunge .................................................................................................................................. 1926
RUSSIA CDS Spreads Has Widened 250bp Since Mid-June ............................................................................................................... 1927
RUSSIA Russian 5Y CDS versus USDRUB versus Russian Stocks .................................................................................................... 1928
RUSSIA Crude Oil in Rubles .................................................................................................................................................................. 1929
RUSSIA Russian Reserves versus USDRUB ........................................................................................................................................ 1929
RUSSIA Falling Oil Price Weighs on Economy and the Ruble .............................................................................................................. 1930
RUSSIA Russian Ruble versus Reserves .............................................................................................................................................. 1931
RUSSIA Russian Breakeven Oil Prices versus Liquids Production ....................................................................................................... 1932
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-1 ............................................................................................................................ 1933
RUSSIA Russian Refining & Upstream Economics-2 ............................................................................................................................ 1933
RUSSIA Russian Holdings of US Treasuries ......................................................................................................................................... 1934
RUSSIA Russian 9 Year Gold Buying Spree ......................................................................................................................................... 1935
RUSSIA Net YTD Gold Purchases by the Central Bank of Russia ........................................................................................................ 1935
19
July 2015 Edition


RUSSIAN RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED THIS TRI-SEMESTER ............................................................................................................ 1936

NEW-RUSSIA Russia signs up to $100 bn BRICS fund to rival IMF ..................................................................................................... 1936
INDIA.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1937
INDIA CAPEX Bottom Out? .................................................................................................................................................................... 1937
INDIA Real GDP and Car Sales ............................................................................................................................................................. 1938
INDIA Inflation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1939
INDIA - Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1940
INDIA - WPI ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1941
INDIA - Will be fine as long as it continues to reduce its deficit. ............................................................................................................... 1942
INDIA - Panic in India ................................................................................................................................................................................. 1943
INDIA - India Rupee Collapse Showing Signs of Exhaustion ................................................................................................................... 1945
INDIA - Watch Out For RE-Emergence of Food Price Inflation ................................................................................................................ 1946
SOUTH AFRICA ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1948
US ECONOMY ..................................................................................................................................... 1950

THE GLOBAL MACRO OVERLAY ........................................................................................................................................ 1951
MACRO - US Macro Data .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1951
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1951
NEW-MACRO June US Macro versus S&P 500 .................................................................................................................................... 1951
NEW-MACRO 10 Year View of US Macro versus S&P 500 Historic Divergence .............................................................................. 1952
NEW-MACRO US Macro Not This Low Since 2008 Financial Crisis ...................................................................................................... 1952
NEW-MACRO S&P 500 versus High Yield (HY) Bond Yield ................................................................................................................. 1953
MACRO Commodity Indexs Nosedive Points to Clear Global Slowdown ............................................................................................. 1954
MACRO Goldman Sachs Global Leading Indicator Has Plummeted..................................................................................................... 1955
MACRO Goldmans GLI Momentum versus Global Industrial Production Goes Into Contraction ........................................................ 1955
MACRO 2015 World GDP Growth versus World Stocks ....................................................................................................................... 1956
MACRO World GDP Annual Estimates versus World Stocks ................................................................................................................ 1956
MACRO World Economies Cutting Rates to Avoid Economic Contraction ........................................................................................... 1957
MACRO World Economies Cutting Rates to Avoid Economic Contraction By Country ..................................................................... 1957
MACRO US Macro in Q1 2015 versus Prior First Quarters Says Something is Wrong ..................................................................... 1958
MACRO US Q4 GDP versus S&P 500 Suggests a Major Divergence Must Be Corrected ................................................................... 1958
MACRO Divergence between Income/Job Growth and Fed Balance Sheet & Financial Markets ........................................................ 1959
MACRO US Economic Surprises Rising While EMU Declines .............................................................................................................. 1959
MACRO US Macro Surprise Index ......................................................................................................................................................... 1959
MACRO Growing Unallocated Global Currency Reserves? ................................................................................................................ 1960
MACRO World Trade Volumes ............................................................................................................................................................... 1962
MACRO Marginal Utility .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1962
MACRO Global Manufacturing PMI ........................................................................................................................................................ 1963
MACRO Credit Markets Diverging .......................................................................................................................................................... 1963
MACRO US Macro Complacency ........................................................................................................................................................... 1964
MACRO Macro Implied Vols ................................................................................................................................................................... 1964
MACRO Markets Stretched .................................................................................................................................................................... 1965
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 1966
MACRO Recovery? Central Banks Are Easing Policy For 50% of The World's Population ..................................................................... 1966
MACRO A World Recession? ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1968
MACRO - US the Safehaven in a Best of a Bad Lot Choice ...................................................................................................................... 1969
MACRO The Ambivalent Superpower ..................................................................................................................................................... 1971
MACRO Things Worse than Slow Growth ................................................................................................................................................. 1973
MACRO - US & Global Growth Will Slow Dramatically on a Per Capita Basis ............................................................................................ 1976
MACRO - Serious Structural US Problems Impeding Global Competitiveness ........................................................................................... 1978
MACRO - Output Gap .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1985
US INVESTMENT CYCLE ...................................................................................................................................................... 1994

CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1995
NEW-CHART Business Cycle Surprise Index ....................................................................................................................................... 1995
NEW-CHART Net Investment as a Share of Net Domestic Product .................................................................................................... 1995
NEW-CHART Net Worth to GDP .............................................................................................................................................................. 1996
NEW-CHART % of Unprofitable IPOs ..................................................................................................................................................... 1996
NEW-CHART US Private Construction Spending ................................................................................................................................. 1997
NEW-CHART SPX versus 12 MMA Due for a Momentum Sell Period .......................................................................................... 1997
CHART Current Economic Cycle Is Getting Old In The Tooth ......................................................................................................... 1998
CHART US Recession Cycle Suggests Cycle May Be Close To Ending ............................................................................................. 1999
CHART US Recession Cycle Suggests Cycle May Be Close To Ending ............................................................................................. 1999
CHART $77T in Household Net Worth Growth Keeps an Illusion Going ............................................................................................ 2000
CHART - Economy in Decline from Consuming More than it Produces ............................................................................................... 2001
GORD'S BIG PICTURE ECONOMIC CYCLE ..................................................................................................................................................... 2001
ECONOMIC INDICATORS .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2003
MONTHLY INDICATORS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................. 2003
NEW-RESEARCH - 8 Charts That Prove The US Is Already In A Recession ..................................................................................... 2003
NEW-RESEARCH - 16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here ............................ 2008
RESEARCH - The US Economy Continues to Tank under Obama ..................................................................................................... 2010
REFERENCE CHARTS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2012
THE CURRENT BUSINESS CYCLE - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 2017
20
July 2015 Edition


BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS > CONFIDENCE > CONSUMPTION > GROWTH CYCLE.................................................................................... 2017
BUSINESS CYCLE - JOBS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2018
SOME HIGHLIGHTS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2018
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2021
NEW-CHARTS Full Time Jobs Approach 2007 Highs ........................................................................................................................... 2021
NEW-CHARTS Full Time versus Part Time Jobs................................................................................................................................... 2021
NEW-CHARTS April Jobs Added By Industry ........................................................................................................................................ 2022
NEW-CHARTS Wages of Production & Non-Supervisory Employees Y-0-Y % Change ...................................................................... 2022
NEW-CHARTS US Labor Productivity.................................................................................................................................................... 2024
NEW-CHARTS Wages of All Employees Y-o-Y % Change ................................................................................................................... 2024
CHARTS Big January Jump In Number of People Who Went from Not in the Labor Force to Employed.......................................... 2025
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls Monthly and Yearly Change ................................................................................................................. 2026
CHARTS Civilian Unemployment Rate................................................................................................................................................... 2026
CHARTS JOLTS-Total Job Openings .................................................................................................................................................... 2026
CHARTS New Jobless Claims w/ 4 Week Moving Average .................................................................................................................. 2027
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls .................................................................................................................................................................. 2027
CHARTS US Monthly Job Growth .......................................................................................................................................................... 2029
CHARTS Labor Market Improving with Troublesome Signs .................................................................................................................. 2029
CHARTS Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................................................ 2029
CHARTS - Corporate Profits versus Wages .............................................................................................................................................. 2030
0B
21
..................................................... 2030
CHARTS - Standard of Living Decline and Bear Market in Real Terms Reflect Labor Participation ....................................................... 2030
July 2015 Edition


.................................................................................................. 2031
CHARTS - Underemployment Gap ............................................................................................................................................................ 2032
1B
6B
.................. 2032
CHARTS - Participation Rate..................................................................................................................................................................... 2033
CHARTS - Part Time Employment ............................................................................................................................................................ 2033
NEW-CHARTS - U3 & U6 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2034
NEW-CHARTS - Employment Situation Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2034
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2042
NEW-RESEARCH - Part-Time Jobs Soar By 437,000; Full-Time Jobs Tumble, Stay Firmly Under Pre-Recession Highs .................... 2042
NEW-RESEARCH - The "Illegal Immigrant" Recovery? The Real Stunner In The Jobs Report .............................................................. 2043
RESEARCH - Gallup CEO: "America's 5.6% Unemployment Is One Big Lie" ......................................................................................... 2048
RESEARCH - This Is Why Hewlett-Packard Is Firing 58,000 ................................................................................................................... 2050
RESEARCH - American Express to cut more than 4,000 jobs ................................................................................................................. 2051
22
July 2015 Edition


RESEARCH - US Employment Trend Remains Chronic .......................................................................................................................... 2052

RESEARCH - Labor Force Participation Rates ......................................................................................................................................... 2055
RESEARCH - Bridging Jobs to Confidence & Sentiment.......................................................................................................................... 2058
RESEARCH - Participation Rate at 1979 Carter Levels ........................................................................................................................... 2061
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2062
NEW-SENTIMENT - Consumer, Investor & Trader ............................................................................................................................................. 2068
BUSINESS CYCLE - CONSUMER & BUSINESS SENTIMENT ......................................................................................................................... 2068
A GRAPHIC HIGHLIGHT .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2068
NEW-CHARTS Falling NFIB Small Business Optimism ........................................................................................................................ 2070
NEW-CHARTS Falling Small Business Hiring Plans ............................................................................................................................. 2070
CHARTS UMich Consumer Sentiment Tumbles Most In 16 Months ..................................................................................................... 2071
CHARTS Consumer Comfort Plunges Most In 10 Months..................................................................................................................... 2071
CHARTS Only 16% Think Future Employment Opportunities Will Be Better ........................................................................................ 2073
CHARTS Inequality Eventually Leads to Economic Adjustments Often Precipitously ....................................................................... 2073
CHARTS - NFIB Small Business Sentiment .............................................................................................................................................. 2074
CHARTS - Orange Book ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2074
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2074
RESEARCH Small Business Confidence is a Major Problem in America ............................................................................................. 2074
RESEARCH Americas Crisis of Trust .................................................................................................................................................... 2076
NEW-SENTIMENT - Consumer, Investor & Trader ............................................................................................................................................. 2078
NEW-Consumer Confidence - Conference Board ........................................................................................................................................ 2078
NEW-Consumer Sentiment - Michigan ......................................................................................................................................................... 2083
NEW-Consumer Comfort - Bloomberg .......................................................................................................................................................... 2084
NEW-American Association of Independent Investors ................................................................................................................................. 2085
NEW-Investors Intelligence ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2085
NEW-National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) .......................................................................................................... 2086
NEW-Small Business Optimism .................................................................................................................................................................... 2087
NEW-Percentage Stocks above 50 & 200 DMA ........................................................................................................................................... 2089
NEW-Margin Levels ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2090
Real Margin Debt as % of GDP ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2095
Margin Debt versus S&P 500 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2095
Mutual Fund Cash Levels v S&P 500 ............................................................................................................................................................ 2096
NEW-OSCILLATORS & BREADTH: Indicators of Importance .......................................................................................................................... 2098
NEW-NYSE Overbought / Oversold .............................................................................................................................................................. 2098
NEW-OEX Open Interest (Puts/Calls) ........................................................................................................................................................... 2099
NEW-TRIN ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2100
NEW-McClellan Oscillator ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2101
CHARTS OF NOTE ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2102
NEW-CHARTS Fed Doing the Lending Not the Banks What Are the Banks Worried About? ............................................................ 2102
NEW-CHARTS Investors Intelligence Bulls & Bears ................................................................................................................................. 2102
NEW-CHARTS A/D Line Diverging from Price, Suggesting Weakening Momentum ................................................................................ 2103
NEW-CHARTS Smart Money OEX Open Interest Put/Call Ratio Now Off the Charts! ......................................................................... 2103
CHARTS UMich Consumer Sentiment Tumbles Most In 16 Months ......................................................................................................... 2104
CHARTS Consumer Comfort Plunges Most In 10 Months ........................................................................................................................ 2105
2BCHARTS Only 16% Think Future Employment Opportunities Will Be Better ............................................................................................ 2106
3BCHARTS Inequality Eventually Leads to Economic Adjustments Often Precipitously ........................................................................... 2106
4BCHARTS - NFIB Small Business Sentiment ................................................................................................................................................. 2107
5BCHARTS - Orange Book ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2107
CHARTS Asset Allocation Global Equities .............................................................................................................................................. 2108
CHARTS Asset Allocation Global Bonds ................................................................................................................................................ 2108
CHARTS Active versus Passive Funds Allocation ..................................................................................................................................... 2109
CHARTS Investors Intelligence Survey of % Bears ................................................................................................................................... 2109
CHARTS Sentiment at Post 2008 Crisis Highs .......................................................................................................................................... 2110
CHARTS CNBC Viewership Steadily Falling ............................................................................................................................................. 2111
CHARTS Investor Allocation Trends for Stocks, Bonds and Cash ............................................................................................................ 2112
CHARTS Uptick in Feds Financial Stress Index Composite ..................................................................................................................... 2113
CHARTS Fear Barometer Diverges with VIX, CDS IG Index .................................................................................................................... 2114
CHARTS Extreme Complacency Seen Near End of Cycles ...................................................................................................................... 2114
CHARTS Complacency Seen In PE/VIX ..................................................................................................................................................... 2115
CHARTS Post Crisis Sentiment Profile Shows a Clear Ending Pattern .................................................................................................... 2115
CHARTS Smart Money Flows .................................................................................................................................................................... 2116
CHARTS Fed Assets versus Bullish Sentiment ......................................................................................................................................... 2116
CHARTS Macro Support Has Technically Broken Down ........................................................................................................................... 2117
CHARTS US Surprise Index Setting Up for Downturn ............................................................................................................................... 2117
CHARTS The Public No Longer Trusts the Market Feel it is Manipulated and Ineffectively Regulated ............................................. 2118
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2119
NEW-SENTIMENT: The "Smart Money" Has Never Been More Bearish .................................................................................................... 2119
NEW-SENTIMENT: US Economic Confidence Crashes Most Since July to Lowest Since December ....................................................... 2121
NEW-SENTIMENT: We Are All Bulls Now .................................................................................................................................................... 2124
NEW-SENTIMENT: No More Greater Fools: Retail Traders Are "Pretty Fully Invested" In Stocks, TD CEO Says .................................... 2125
NEW-SENTIMENT: One Heckuva Bull Market but Momentum Weakening!................................................................................................ 2126
SENTIMENT: Small Business Confidence is a Major Problem in America .................................................................................................. 2128
SENTIMENT: Americas Crisis of Trust ......................................................................................................................................................... 2130
SENTIMENT: "Everything Is Awesome" American Consumers Are The Happiest In 11 Years .......................................................... 2131
23
July 2015 Edition


SENTIMENT: For CNBC, 2014 Was The Worst Year. Ever. ..................................................................................................................... 2132
SENTIMENT: An Astounding Number Of Americans Aren't Investing A Cent ..................................................................................... 2134
SENTIMENT: US Households to Withdraw $430 Billion From Stocks In 2014 ...................................................................................... 2139
SENTIMENT: Elliott Wave's View from the Top ........................................................................................................................................ 2142
BUSINESS CYCLE CONSUMPTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 2146
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y/Y and Sequential Change ............................................................................................. 2150
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Y-0-Y ......................................................................................................................................................... 2150
NEW-CHARTS Retail Sales Ex Auto...................................................................................................................................................... 2151
NEW-CHARTS VICE Index and Discretionary Spending....................................................................................................................... 2152
NEW-CHARTS Value of Manufacturers New Orders for Consumer Goods Industries ........................................................................ 2153
NEW-CHARTS y-0-y Chain Store Sales ................................................................................................................................................ 2153
NEW-CHARTS Y-0-Y Factory Orders .................................................................................................................................................... 2154
NEW-CHARTS Annual Growth in Retail Sales ...................................................................................................................................... 2154
CHARTS Retail Sales Have 2 Mo Change Drop Dating Back to 2009 .................................................................................................. 2155
CHARTS Retails Sales Mo-o-Mo Drops ................................................................................................................................................. 2155
CHARTS Estimated Change in Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services by Kind .............................................................................. 2155
CHARTS What Americans Spent Their "Gas Savings" On .................................................................................................................... 2156
CHARTS Retail Sales-Previous Month Comparisons ............................................................................................................................. 2158
CHARTS No Offset to Plunging Gas Sales in Ex-Auto, Ex Gas ............................................................................................................ 2159
CHARTS Deflated Retail (ex Auto) Christmas and Aftermath ............................................................................................................... 2159
CHARTS Retail Sales Control Group Y-o-Y and Sequential Change .................................................................................................... 2160
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added Since the Great Financial Crisis .............................................................................................. 2160
CHARTS Total Household Debt Added in Q4 2014 ............................................................................................................................... 2161
CHARTS Real Personal Consumption ................................................................................................................................................... 2161
CHARTS Discretionary Retail Sales ....................................................................................................................................................... 2162
CHARTS False Signal of Consumer Re-Leveraging .............................................................................................................................. 2163
CHARTS Sub-Prime Lending Drives Spending ..................................................................................................................................... 2164
CHARTS Retail Sales ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2164
CHARTS Retail Sales - Details ............................................................................................................................................................... 2166
CHARTS Consumer Credit Growth Since Cycle Peak ........................................................................................................................... 2167
CHARTS Real Income is The Key Driver of Consumption Spending .................................................................................................... 2167
CHARTS Consumer Credit Drove Household Debt in Q2 Mortgage Debt Lagged ............................................................................ 2168
CHARTS Discretionary Spending Showing Signs of Cracking .............................................................................................................. 2168
CHARTS - Real Disposable Personal Income .......................................................................................................................................... 2169
CHARTS - Real Consumption Expenditure ............................................................................................................................................... 2171
CHARTS - Consumer Credit Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 2172
CHARTS - Core Retail Growth .................................................................................................................................................................. 2173
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2174
RESEARCH - Headwinds for US Consumers & Home Buyers ................................................................................................................ 2174
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2175
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 2176
RESEARCH - 95% of Consumer Credit Lending Going towards Student & Car Loans ................................................................... 2178
RESEARCH - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ..................................................................................................................................... 2180
RESEARCH - Gallup Survey Shows -10% Reduction in Christmas Buying Plans ........................................................................... 2183
RESEARCH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine .................................................................... 2184
RESEARCH - A Sequential Decline in Wages ....................................................................................................................................... 2185
RESEARCH - Final Sales Signals Pending Potential Recession on the Horizon ............................................................................. 2186
RESEARCH - Consumers Using Savings to Maintain Life Style ........................................................................................................ 2186
RESEARCH - The Destruction of America's Middle Class .................................................................................................................. 2189
RESEARCH - Dramatic Slowing in Restaurant Business .................................................................................................................... 2189
RESEARCH - Signs of Serious Troubles .................................................................................................................................................. 2190
RESEARCH - Falling Real Disposable Income means Falling Consumption ................................................................................... 2193
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2200
NEW-CHARTS US Q2 GDP Consensus Forecast versus Atlanta Feds 0.7% ..................................................................................... 2204
NEW-CHARTS Q1 2015 US GDP Growth Consensus Estimate ........................................................................................................... 2206
NEW-CHARTS US Business Investment Current versus Previous Recoveries ................................................................................. 2206
NEW-CHARTS US Vehicle Miles 12 Month Total All Roads ........................................................................................................... 2207
NEW-CHARTS CAPEX Use of Cash .................................................................................................................................................. 2207
NEW-CHARTS Change in Total Private Industries ................................................................................................................................ 2208
NEW-CHARTS US Private Construction Spending ............................................................................................................................... 2208
CHARTS Ratio of Coincident-to-Lagging Conference Board Indices .................................................................................................... 2209
CHARTS GDP Q4 2014 Revised Components Table ............................................................................................................................ 2210
CHARTS Quarterly Change in % Contributions to GDP ........................................................................................................................ 2210
CHARTS Three Reasons CAPEX is Faltering ....................................................................................................................................... 2210
CHARTS ISM Rally Has Petered Out & Expected Inflation Has Fallen ................................................................................................. 2211
CHARTS Philly Fed Rolling Over ........................................................................................................................................................... 2212
CHARTS US Profits & Sales Have Stalled ............................................................................................................................................. 2212
CHARTS Real GDP versus CAPEX ....................................................................................................................................................... 2213
CHARTS Change In Inventories Inflated from Lack of Demand ......................................................................................................... 2214
CHARTS US GDP Revision for Q4-2014 ............................................................................................................................................... 2214
CHARTS Quarterly GDP by Component Breakdown ............................................................................................................................. 2215
24
July 2015 Edition


CHARTS Long Term US GDP Growth Estimates FOMC versus CBO ............................................................................................... 2216
CHARTS US Real Domestic Product Running Out of Runway .......................................................................................................... 2216
CHARTS Steadily Falling Real US Growth Estimates ........................................................................................................................... 2218
CHARTS US Power Consumption Tells the Real Story of US Growth & De-Industrialization .............................................................. 2219
CHARTS US Real Trade Gap (Ex-Petroleum) ....................................................................................................................................... 2219
CHARTS Consecutive Quarters of Contracting Growth Looming .......................................................................................................... 2220
CHARTS Bloombergs Consensus GDP Forecasts 2011-2014.......................................................................................................... 2221
CHARTS GDP Growth During Current Recovery Lags Past Expectations ........................................................................................... 2221
CHARTS Trends of Output, Hours and Productivity .............................................................................................................................. 2222
CHARTS Weak US Capacity Utilization ................................................................................................................................................. 2223
CHARTS A US Recession Likely IF Liquidity is not increased and TAPER Sustained ......................................................................... 2223
CHARTS Barrons Sees 4% Growth The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator ............................................................................................. 2224
CHARTS Firms Revising Lower Q1 Growth on Weakening Retail Sales .............................................................................................. 2225
CHARTS Negative Economic Surprises Began in November ............................................................................................................... 2225
CHARTS What Americans Experience Daily and its Isnt Growth ......................................................................................................... 2226
CHARTS - Manufacturing .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2227
CHARTS - Exports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2227
CHARTS - Durable Goods ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2228
CHARTS - NFIB Small Business CAPEX .................................................................................................................................................. 2228
CHARTS - US Manufacturing Conditions Deteriorating ............................................................................................................................ 2229
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2230
NEW-RESEARCH - Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy .................................................. 2230
RESEARCH - BEA Revises 4th Quarter 2014 GDP Growth Downward to 2.18% ................................................................................... 2231
RESEARCH - The U.S. Economy is Dead ................................................................................................................................................ 2233
RESEARCH - Q4 GDP Revised Down To 2.2% From 5.0%: Full Breakdown ......................................................................................... 2235
RESEARCH - US Q1 GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2237
RESEARCH - US GDP Growth Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 2243
RESEARCH - Economic Recoveries Don't Look Like This! ................................................................................................................ 2243
RESEARCH - 2nd Worst Decade in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) ........................................................................................ 2244
RESEARCH - US Economy is being fundamentally transformed ............................................................................................................. 2246
RESEARCH - Shrinking CAPEX, Expanding Buybacks and Dividends ............................................................................................. 2249
REFERENCE - Prior Posts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2252
RESEARCH - US Economic Recovery Has Peaked ............................................................................................................................. 2252
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2260
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 2267
US PUBLIC POLICY THE SINISTER TPP AGREEMENT.................................................................................................... 2274

NEW-TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP)......................................................................................................................................... 2275
NEW-BALTIMORE RIOTS ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2276
NEW-CHARLESTOWN SHOOTING ......................................................................................................................................................... 2276
BEGINNINGS OF SOCIAL UNREST & THE MILITARIZATION OF POLICE .......................................................................................... 2277
CORPORATE INVERSIONS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2277
FERGUSON ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 2278
MILITARIZATION OF POLICE .................................................................................................................................................................. 2279
POLLS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2280
INCARCERATION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2280
FLAWED TAX POLICY .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2280
MINIMUM WAGE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2280
SOCIAL CANCERS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2280
CORRUPTION & MALFEASANTS ............................................................................................................................................................ 2281
INEQUALITY .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2281
CREEPING SOCIALISM ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2281
POLICIAL PARALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2281
STATE OF THE UNION ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2282
NSA-SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX......................................................................................................................................... 2282
OBAMACARE ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 2283
GENERAL PUBLIC POLICY...................................................................................................................................................................... 2285
CHARTS The Cost of Healthcare By Country Spending Per Person ................................................................................................. 2286
CHARTS The Bankrupt US Healthcare System .................................................................................................................................. 2286
CHARTS Rise in Number of Homeless Children ................................................................................................................................... 2287
CHARTS One-Third of All Homeless Live in These 10 Cities ................................................................................................................ 2288
CHARTS Trends in American Public Schooling Since 1970 .................................................................................................................. 2289
CHARTS Size of US Army Since 1946................................................................................................................................................... 2289
CHARTS Lack of Trust in Government to Handle International & Domestic Problems ......................................................................... 2290
CHARTS Changing Presidential Stance ................................................................................................................................................ 2291
CHARTS Public Support to Withdraw from Union .................................................................................................................................. 2291
CHARTS - US Incarceration Rate Out of Control ...................................................................................................................................... 2292
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2293
POLICY - A 'Shadow" State of the Union .................................................................................................................................................. 2293
POLICY - Banks Remove the "Heart" of Dodd-Frank ............................................................................................................................... 2296
POLICY - Wall Street Moves to Put Taxpayers on the Hook for Derivatives Trades ............................................................................... 2300
POLICY - The Death Cross of American Business ............................................................................................................................... 2303
POLICY - The State of the Union I have a Dream! .......................................................................................................................... 2305
25
July 2015 Edition


POLICY - A self-destructive path toward oblivion ................................................................................................................................ 2309

POLICY - Indictment of US Public, Fiscal & Monetary Policy ............................................................................................................... 2314
POLICY - The Crisis of Trust Continues to Worsen ............................................................................................................................. 2327
POLICY - The Stunning Truth about Inequality In America ................................................................................................................. 2328
POLICY - Pointing US towards Government Dependence .................................................................................................................. 2329
POLICY - Yet another Game of Deception ............................................................................................................................................. 2333
POLICY - Obamacare A Flawed Public Policy Implementation ........................................................................................................... 2336
POLICY - Financial Repression and Manipulated Illusions ....................................................................................................................... 2339
POLICY - US Economic Decline is Obvious to Anyone Caring to Look ............................................................................................ 2343
POLICY - Policy Uncertainty and Confidence in Monetary Policy Direction is exposed .................................................................... 2346
POLICY - "What is good for GM is good for America" is no longer correct...................................................................................... 2348
POLICY - Where is the Logic In US Public Policy ................................................................................................................................ 2349
POLICY - What is the Real Driving Force Behind the New Immigration Law? ................................................................................. 2351
POLICY - Crony Capitalism and How America Lost its Way! .............................................................................................................. 2354
STATE OF THE UNION - Direction & Priorities ............................................................................................................................................ 2358
th
STATE OF THE UNION Remarks by the President in State of the Union Address January 20 , 2015 ............................................ 2358
STATE OF THE UNION Free College Wasn't Just a Give Away It Was A Trial Balloon ................................................................... 2368
MONETARY POLICY FED IS PUSHING ON A STRING ............................................................................................................ 2376

CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2377
NEW-CHARTS: ZIRP Policy Results Compared to Previous Falling or Steady Rate Targets ..................................................................... 2377
NEW-CHARTS: Producer Price Index is Plummeting Complete Lack of Pricing Power ........................................................................... 2378
NEW-CHARTS: Liquidity Problems in Bond Market Are Only Getting Worse .............................................................................................. 2378
NEW-CHARTS: Lending is Coming From the Fed Not the Banks ............................................................................................................ 2379
NEW-CHARTS: Debt Service Ratio for Prior Expansions ............................................................................................................................ 2379
NEW-CHARTS: Why Interest Rates Cant Come Up Derivative Collateral Underpinnings ...................................................................... 2380
NEW-CHARTS: Total Credit Market Debt + Fed B/S versus Nominal GDP Growth .................................................................................... 2380
CHARTS: Fed is Allowing Adjusted Monetary Base to Fall .......................................................................................................................... 2381
CHARTS: Federal Reserve Monetary Base Since 1918............................................................................................................................... 2381
CHARTS: US Nominal GDP & Credit Market Debt Owed Since 1952 ......................................................................................................... 2382
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet & Policy Rate Target ..................................................................................................................................... 2382
CHARTS: Cash Balances versus Total Reserve Balances .......................................................................................................................... 2383
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet and QE Versions ........................................................................................................................................... 2383
CHARTS: Major US Financial Institutional Leverage Ratios ........................................................................................................................ 2385
CHARTS: Fed Balance Sheet Composition .................................................................................................................................................. 2386
CHARTS: Cash Bank Holdings ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2387
CHARTS: Debt Needed to Create $1 GDP ................................................................................................................................................... 2388
CHARTS: Markets May be Ahead of Slowing Liquidity Flow Rates ............................................................................................................. 2388
CHARTS: Primary Dealer Repo Fails............................................................................................................................................................ 2389
CHARTS: Repo Volumes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2389
CHARTS: Repo volumes Agency + MBS ................................................................................................................................................... 2390
CHARTS: Repo volumes Agency + MBS ................................................................................................................................................... 2390
CHARTS: Feds Reverse Repo Agreements ................................................................................................................................................ 2391
CHARTS: Why Does the Fed Need Such a Large Options Trading Contract with ALL Exchanges? .......................................................... 2392
CHARTS: 10 Year Yield Suggests End to Yellen Honeymoon ..................................................................................................................... 2393
CHARTS: Capitalism Doesnt Work Without Savings for Investment Where is the Savings? ................................................................. 2393
CHARTS: Net National Savings Rate............................................................................................................................................................ 2394
CHARTS: Mispricing of Risk Reaching Extremes ......................................................................................................................................... 2394
CHARTS: Unless you were a Banker, ZIRP Has Accomplished Zilch! ........................................................................................................ 2395
CHARTS: Ratio of Capital v Consumer Goods Production .......................................................................................................................... 2396
CHARTS: Feds Targeted Credit Growth Opportunities................................................................................................................................ 2397
CHARTS: 90 Day Delinquent Loans by Type Student Loans a Growing Problem .................................................................................... 2397
CHARTS: A Third of US GDP is Now Going to Repay Interest & Principle on Loans ................................................................................. 2398
CHARTS: M2 Money Velocity ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2399
CHARTS: Net Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries ..................................................................................................................................... 2399
CHARTS: US Increase in Money Printing versus GDP ................................................................................................................................ 2400
CHARTS: US Consumers Failed Attempt at Deleveraging .......................................................................................................................... 2401
CHARTS: Traditional Bank Liabilities v GDP ................................................................................................................................................ 2402
NEW-RATES: Almost a Third of All Trades Have Known Only ZIRP ........................................................................................................... 2403
RATES: Is There a Zero Bound for US Rates? ............................................................................................................................................. 2404
RATES: Historical Policy Rates ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2405
RATES: Debt ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2406
RATES: Stages of Fed Forward Guidance ................................................................................................................................................... 2406
RATES: Real Interest Rates .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2407
RATES: Eight Rate Issues for the Fed Up or Down................................................................................................................................... 2408
NEW-INFLATION: Inflation Targeting is Clearly Not Working ...................................................................................................................... 2409
INFLATION: Market-Based Inflation Expectations on the Rebound ............................................................................................................. 2409
INFLATION: US Inflation Education-Medical-Food-Housing versus CPI .................................................................................................. 2410
INFLATION: Price Inflation through Decline in Purchasing Power of the Dollar .......................................................................................... 2411
INFLATION: Official Inflation Picture Remains Subdued .............................................................................................................................. 2411
INFLATION: Cost of Eating ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2412
INFLATION: The Cost of Breakfast ............................................................................................................................................................... 2413
INFLATION: July 4th Cost of Beef Burger ...................................................................................................................................................... 2414
INFLATION: Bloombergs July 4th Barbecue Index ....................................................................................................................................... 2414
26
July 2015 Edition


INFLATION: Butter on a Roll ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2415

INFLATION: Back to School Shocker............................................................................................................................................................ 2416
INFLATION: Where Inflation Isnt (Yet) - Energy .......................................................................................................................................... 2417
INFLATION: Most Commonly Used Items are rising faster than CPI ........................................................................................................... 2418
INFLATION: Back to School Shocker............................................................................................................................................................ 2418
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2419
NEW-RESEARCH Bank Reserves & Loans: The Fed is pushing On A String ......................................................................................... 2419
RESEARCH Global Currency Wars & Deflationary Pressures .................................................................................................................. 2422
RESEARCH Debt is a promise of something of value in the future .......................................................................................................... 2427
RESEARCH Is NIRP Coming To America? ............................................................................................................................................... 2434
RESEARCH Deflation is a Problem for the Fed With Shrinking Growth Rates ......................................................................................... 2438
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................ 2444
REPO FAILS .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2445
REVERSE REPO Feds Stealth Program to Protect Markets .................................................................................................................... 2446
FISCAL POLICY US NOW HAS NATIONAL PRODUCTIVITY & STATE AND LOCAL FISCAL PROBLEMS ......................................... 2447
NEW-PEURTO RICO .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2448
NEW-ILLINOIS & CHICAGO ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2448
A SHRINKING BUDGET DEFICIT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS ................................................................................................................... 2449
FISCAL MATTERS ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2450
FEDERAL DEBT HOLDINGS & FINANCING...................................................................................................................................................... 2453
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2453
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING The Mysterious Belgium Treasury Holder Has Started Selling .................................................... 2453
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-1 ................................................................. 2453
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings v China Forex Reserves-2 ................................................................. 2454
NEW-FINANCING CHINA SELLING China & Belgium Holdings Change............................................................................................... 2454
NEW-FINANCING Breakdown of US Debt Holdings as of 2014 ................................................................................................................ 2454
CHARTS US Federal Government Debt to GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 2455
CHARTS Drivers of US Debt ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2456
CHARTS Total Government Expenditures versus Real GDP .................................................................................................................... 2457
CHARTS US Debt About to Pass $18T and 102% of GDP ....................................................................................................................... 2457
CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 .............................................................................................................................. 2458
RESEARCH - $70T Off-Balance Sheet Federal Liabilities ....................................................................................................................... 2459
FEDERAL BUDGET SPENDING ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2462
CHARTS Mandatory versus Discretionary Spending ................................................................................................................................. 2462
CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense .......................................................................................................... 2462
CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits .................................................................................................................. 2463
CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ......................................................................................... 2464
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 2465
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 2465
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 2465
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 2466
FEDERAL BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................. 2467
BUDGET - President Obama's Entire Budget In One Chart .................................................................................................................... 2468
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government .................................................................................................................. 2469
BUDGET - Budget Deficit Shrinking and Shrinking Infrastructure Spending ................................................................................................ 2474
RESEARCH - CROMNIBUS - The Real Reason Why It Needed to be Passed .......................................................................................... 2475
RESEARCH - $89.5 trillion in liabilities ......................................................................................................................................................... 2477
RESEARCH - The Federal Government is "cooking the books"! ................................................................................................................. 2481
RESEARCH NIA 2015 U.S. Debt Crisis Report ......................................................................................................................................... 2485
STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2495
CHARTS State & Local Tax Revenues ...................................................................................................................................................... 2495
NEW-RESEARCH - Almost Half of US States Are Officially Broke ........................................................................................................ 2495
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Crisis ....................................................................................................................................... 2500
RESEARCH - State & Local Government Drag ............................................................................................................................................ 2506
UNFUNDED LIABILITIES .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2511
RESEARCH Private Pension Fund Levels Fall Behind ............................................................................................................................. 2511
RESEARCH Professor Laurence Kotlikoff on the $210T Fiscal Gap ...................................................................................................... 2514
NEW-US REGULATORY COSTS ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2517
NEW-CHARTS Annual Cost of Federal Regulation 2012, $1.863T ....................................................................................................... 2517
NEW-RESEARCH Investor Uncertainty ..................................................................................................................................................... 2517
US TAX POLICY & ISSUES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2519
CHARTS 7 Corporate CEOs Paid More Than Corporation Paid Tax ........................................................................................................ 2519
CHARTS - Americas 100 highest-paid CEOs, 29 received more in pay than company federal income taxes ........................................... 2520
CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ..................................................................................................................... 2523
CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World ....................................................................... 2523
CHARTS How Banks Use Dividend Arbitrage to Reduce Client Tax ...................................................................................................... 2524
RESEARCH - Tax Rate Comparisons ........................................................................................................................................................ 2525
RESEARCH - Payroll Tax Holiday ................................................................................................................................................................ 2525
RESEARCH - Taxes & Spending .................................................................................................................................................................. 2526
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2530
MISC CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ................................................................................................................................................................. 2533
27
July 2015 Edition


CHARTS Competing Visions of Government ............................................................................................................................................. 2533

CHARTS - Sovereign Debt ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2534
CHARTS - Growing Government Dependence ............................................................................................................................................. 2535
CHARTS - Coming Demographic Shock ....................................................................................................................................................... 2535
CHARTS - Fiscal Cliff Outcome .................................................................................................................................................................... 2539
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................ 2541
KEY DRIVERS MUST HAVE CATALYSTS OF CHANGE ................................................................................................... 2543

EMPLOYMENT .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2549
LATEST ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2550
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2552
NEW-CHARTS DOW Industrials versus Employed Population ............................................................................................................. 2552
NEW-CHARTS Employment to Working Age Population ...................................................................................................................... 2552
NEW-CHARTS The Real American Economy ....................................................................................................................................... 2552
NEW-CHARTS Full Time versus Part Time ........................................................................................................................................... 2553
NEW-CHARTS Cumulative Workers Added by Age Group ................................................................................................................... 2553
NEW-CHARTS Wages of Production and Non-Supervisory Employees ............................................................................................... 2554
NEW-CHARTS Wages of Supervisory Employees Y-0-Y % Change .................................................................................................... 2554
CHARTS Industries That Have Been Hiring ........................................................................................................................................... 2555
CHARTS Top 5 Industry Cuts ................................................................................................................................................................. 2555
CHARTS Employees in the US by Industry ............................................................................................................................................ 2556
CHARTS Workers Aged 55 and Over .................................................................................................................................................... 2556
CHARTS Percentage of Over 65 in Labor Force ................................................................................................................................... 2557
CHARTS Non Participation Has Stabilized? .......................................................................................................................................... 2557
CHARTS Share of Population Retired .................................................................................................................................................... 2558
CHARTS Goods Producing Workers versus Government Payroll ....................................................................................................... 2558
CHARTS Not in the Labor Force ............................................................................................................................................................ 2559
CHARTS Labor Force Participation versus Not in the Labor Force ....................................................................................................... 2559
CHARTS Small Business Not the Focus of A Consolidating Banking Industry ..................................................................................... 2561
CHARTS Those Leaving Work Force Likely Not to Return .................................................................................................................... 2561
CHARTS Workers Not In the Labor Force Soars ................................................................................................................................... 2562
CHARTS The Trend of a Breadwinner Economy ................................................................................................................................ 2562
CHARTS Trend of a Goods Producing Economy .................................................................................................................................. 2563
CHARTS Trend of a Part Time Working Economy .............................................................................................................................. 2563
CHARTS Jobs in HES = Health, Education and Social Services .......................................................................................................... 2564
CHARTS NFP Jobs Less HES ............................................................................................................................................................... 2564
CHARTS 1,446,000 Fewer People Working Full Time Aug 14 the Aug 08.......................................................................................... 2565
CHARTS Employment is Part Time in Food Services and Drinking Places .......................................................................................... 2565
CHARTS QE Has A Diminishing Effect on US Job Creation ................................................................................................................. 2566
CHARTS Labor Participation Rate ......................................................................................................................................................... 2566
CHARTS US Industrial Production versus Manufacturing Jobs............................................................................................................. 2567
CHARTS Total Compensation Growth Lingering at 2.9 Percent ........................................................................................................... 2567
CHARTS The Startling Long Term Unemployed Statistics .................................................................................................................... 2568
CHARTS Finding Work That Pays Enough to Support a Family Is Nearly Impossible ......................................................................... 2569
CHARTS Labor Force Participation by Age ........................................................................................................................................... 2570
CHARTS - America Becoming a Country of Part Time Workers .............................................................................................................. 2571
CHARTS - Wages & Salary Accruals / GDP ............................................................................................................................................. 2572
CHARTS US Employment/Population Ratio Total in Labor Force ......................................................................................................... 2572
CHARTS US Industrial Production v Manufacturing Jobs...................................................................................................................... 2572
CHARTS - Part-Time Employment ............................................................................................................................................................ 2573
CHARTS - Nonfarm Payrolls Y-O-Y DECLINE ......................................................................................................................................... 2573
CHARTS - Hiring Stalled at 200K Per Month (Approximates ONLY the New People Entering Workforce)............................................ 2574
CHARTS - The Under-Employment Gap ................................................................................................................................................... 2574
CHARTS Staycations A Sign of the FEAR of Job Loss & Competition for Jobs ................................................................................... 2575
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2576
EMPLOYMENT - Job = Just Over Broke................................................................................................................................................... 2576
EMPLOYMENT - Working Age Americans without a Job Has Risen By 27 Million Since 2000 .............................................................. 2578
EMPLOYMENT - At the Core of the US Chronic Unemployment is a Lack of Private Investment.......................................................... 2580
EMPLOYMENT - With and Without Obama's Recovery Plan .............................................................................................................. 2582
EMPLOYMENT - Millennials Devastated As American Dream Becomes Nightmare for Most ........................................................ 2583
EMPLOYMENT - 30 Mind-blowing Statistics about Americans Under The Age Of 30 ..................................................................... 2585
EMPLOYMENT - Going Nowhere Even With All Jobs Becoming Temporary Jobs and the Participation Rate Plummeting ...... 2588
EMPLOYMENT - Low-Wage Jobs Bias Continues to Hamper U.S. Recovery......................................................................................... 2589
EMPLOYMENT - A REAL Family Wage versus Part Time & HES ....................................................................................................... 2590
EMPLOYMENT - It is as much About the Quality, as the Quantity of Jobs ....................................................................................... 2597
REFERENCE - Prior Posts ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2599
1- CAPITAL SPENDING ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2599
2- SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM ............................................................................................................................................................ 2602
3- DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2606
REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2616
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2616
LATEST ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2616
STUDENT LOANS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2617
CHARTS & TABLES ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2620
NEW-CHARTS US Personal Savings Rate as a % of Disposable Income ........................................................................................... 2620
28
July 2015 Edition


NEW-CHARTS US Corporate Profits versus US Median Household Income ....................................................................................... 2620

NEW-CHARTS Death of the American Middle Class ............................................................................................................................. 2621
NEW-CHARTS Income Gap being Filled With Credit ............................................................................................................................ 2621
NEW-CHARTS Peak Spending Years.................................................................................................................................................... 2622
NEW-CHARTS Real Per Capita Sum of Corporate Profits After Tax, Disposable Personal Income and Government Receipts .... 2623
CHARTS Real Median Household Income in the United States ............................................................................................................ 2623
CHARTS Food Stamps Number of Participants .................................................................................................................................. 2624
CHARTS Food Stamps Number of Participants per Employed .......................................................................................................... 2624
CHARTS Food Stamps Cost Per Participant per Month ..................................................................................................................... 2625
CHARTS Food Stamps Annual Program Cost .................................................................................................................................... 2625
CHARTS Education, Medical, Food, Housing Costs versus CPI ........................................................................................................... 2626
CHARTS Rising Sub-Prime .................................................................................................................................................................... 2626
CHARTS Early Delinquencies on US Car Loans Has Been Rising ....................................................................................................... 2628
CHARTS Student Loan Default Rates By Graduating Year ................................................................................................................... 2629
CHARTS Student Loan Graduating Debt Levels Class 2009 ............................................................................................................. 2629
CHARTS Student Loan Borrowing Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 2630
CHARTS Increasing Government Entitlement Dependency .................................................................................................................. 2630
CHARTS Increasing Government Entitlement Dependency .................................................................................................................. 2631
CHARTS US Household Balance Sheet ................................................................................................................................................ 2631
CHARTS Middle Class Not Sharing In Per Capita GDP ........................................................................................................................ 2632
CHARTS Real Personal Consumption Expenditures ............................................................................................................................. 2633
CHARTS Inflation Adjusted Net Worth for Typical Family Falls 36% in 10 Years ................................................................................. 2634
CHARTS Even Wal-Mart Discounting Cant Keep Up With Government Inflation ................................................................................ 2634
CHARTS Food Stamps Now Part of the American Way of Life ............................................................................................................. 2635
CHARTS Inflation Adjusted Hourly Earnings Remain Weak .................................................................................................................. 2636
CHARTS the Countrys Central Economic Challenge according to EPI ................................................................................................ 2637
CHARTS The New Sub-Prime Boom Auto Loans ............................................................................................................................... 2637
CHARTS Real Median Income Falls as Real Rates Turn Negative....................................................................................................... 2638
CHARTS Disposable Personal Income Per Capita ................................................................................................................................ 2638
CHARTS Real Disposable Income is Now Contracting ......................................................................................................................... 2639
CHARTS This is a Structural .................................................................................................................................................................. 2639
CHARTS Growing Temp Wages Impacting Real Disposable Income in America .............................................................................. 2640
CHARTS Real Disposable Income per Capita ....................................................................................................................................... 2641
CHARTS - Household Incomes a Sign of a Collapsing Middle Class ................................................................................................ 2641
CHARTS - Food Stamps Now 14% of US Grocery Store Sales ............................................................................................................. 2642
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2643
RESEARCH Fed's Household Credit Report Confirms It Is A Student And Car Loan "Recovery" ....................................................... 2643
RESEARCH How Can a 70% Consumption Have a Recovery When Real DI/Capital Falls ................................................................. 2645
RESEARCH - The Facts are clear. The US Standard of Living is Falling ........................................................................................... 2646
RESEARCH - The Facts are clear. The US Standard of Living is falling .................................................................................................. 2647
RESEARCH - Standards of Living and Artificial Expectations ........................................................................................................... 2649
RESEARCH - A Lack of Demand in US Economy ................................................................................................................................ 2651
RESEARCH - Full Time Jobs or Food Stamps & Disability? .............................................................................................................. 2652
REFERENCE - Prior Posts ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2654
STANDARD OF LIVING - Salary Compression ...................................................................................................................................... 2654
DISPOSABLE INCOME - 66M (20%) Below $28.8/Year Subsistence Level........................................................................................ 2655
FOOD STAMPS - 46,405,204 Individuals, 22,257,647 Households below Poverty Line ................................................................... 2656
DISPOSABLE INCOME - Bad Even in Nominal Terms ......................................................................................................................... 2658
INFLATION - It's There but the Government Doesn't Account for it. .................................................................................................. 2658
US RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2660
LATEST ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2660
CHARTS & TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2664
NEW-POLICY New Homes Sales versus Ave Wage Grow Y-0-Y versus MBA 30Y rate versus Real Median Inc ....................... 2664
NEW-POLICY Mortgage Purchase Application Index versus Fed Balance Sheet ......................................................................... 2665
NEW-POLICY Total News Home Sales v Median New Home Sale Price ......................................................................................... 2666
POLICY San Francisco Y/Y Price Increase Indicator ........................................................................................................................ 2666
POLICY Meaningful Housing Recovery On Hold Until Spring ......................................................................................................... 2668
POLICY Housing Starts ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2668
POLICY Existing & New Home Sales .................................................................................................................................................. 2669
POLICY Home Ownership Rate versus Rental Rate ......................................................................................................................... 2669
POLICY Mortgages Past Due and Foreclosure Starts ................................................................................................................... 2670
POLICY Mortgage Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................. 2670
POLICY Lumber Sales .......................................................................................................................................................................... 2671
CHARTS Total Real Estate Sales Activity vs. Mortgage Rates ............................................................................................................. 2672
CHARTS Home Price Slowdown Underlines Weak Demand ................................................................................................................ 2673
CHARTS National Home Price Medians & Indexes ............................................................................................................................... 2674
CHARTS Multi-Family Shift Underway In America ................................................................................................................................. 2674
CHARTS Housing Completions Show Shift to Multi-Family Units ......................................................................................................... 2674
CHARTS New Home Prices ................................................................................................................................................................... 2675
CHARTS Housing Starts and Completions ............................................................................................................................................ 2676
CHARTS DJ Home Construction Index .................................................................................................................................................. 2676
CHARTS Consumer Attitudes About Home Ownership ......................................................................................................................... 2677
CHARTS Trailing 12 Month Average Median US New Home Sale Prices ............................................................................................ 2678
CHARTS US New Home Demand Still Flagging .................................................................................................................................... 2678
CHARTS Housing Completions Single Family Versus Multifamily ..................................................................................................... 2679
29
July 2015 Edition


CHARTS Troubling Technicals in Housing Starts .................................................................................................................................. 2679

CHARTS NAHB Sentiment versus Mortgage Applications .................................................................................................................... 2680
CHARTS - Serious Housing & Household Spending Headwinds ............................................................................................................. 2680
CHARTS - Double Top in Construction Index ........................................................................................................................................... 2680
CHARTS - The Real Cost of Buying a Home 6.7 X Average Salary .................................................................................................... 2681
CHARTS - Household Formations ............................................................................................................................................................. 2681
CHARTS Falling Originations ................................................................................................................................................................. 2682
CHARTS Falling Credit Scores ............................................................................................................................................................... 2683
CHARTS Falling Down payments ........................................................................................................................................................... 2683
CHARTS Household Formations & First Time Buyers Collapse............................................................................................................ 2684
CHARTS Classic Technical Analysis Chart Showing Housing in an Uncompleted Corrective Wave ................................................... 2684
CHARTS - Housing Starts ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2685
CHARTS - Composition of Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................................ 2685
CHARTS - New Home Sales ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2686
CHARTS - Existing Residential Supply ..................................................................................................................................................... 2686
CHARTS - Housing Starts ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2687
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2689
RESEARCH - BlackRock's Fink Warns Housing More "Unsound" Now Than During Last Bubble ......................................................... 2689
RESEARCH - A Single Family Income Insufficient and In Many Cases Two Is Insufficient ..................................................................... 2690
RESEARCH - Insight: A new wave of U.S. mortgage trouble threatens ................................................................................................... 2692
RESEARCH - Household Formation Drives Residential Real Estate ................................................................................................. 2694
OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2697
CURRENT HOME OWNERSHIP TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................. 2702
$6.5 TRILLION IN MIDDLE CLASS NET WORTH EVAPORATES .......................................................................................................... 2705
NATIONAL STATISTICS: PRICE .............................................................................................................................................................. 2706
NATIONAL STATISTICS: EXISITNG HOME SALES ............................................................................................................................... 2708
NATIONAL STATISTICS: NEW HOME SALES ........................................................................................................................................ 2710
HOUSING: Even a Never Seen Before 30 Year Mortgage Rate can't Help Housing ......................................................................... 2711
HOUSING: Soaring FHA Delinquencies ................................................................................................................................................. 2712
US COMMERCIAL RETAIL REAL ESTATE ....................................................................................................................................................... 2717
LATEST ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2717
CHARTS Vacancy Rate - Indoor Malls versus Strip Malls ..................................................................................................................... 2720
CHARTS McDonalds Global Sales Fall 2.5% - 35,000 Franchise Operators In Trouble...................................................................... 2720
CHARTS McDonalds US Same Store Sales Down ~4% Y-o-Y ............................................................................................................ 2721
CHARTS Top US Franchise Defaulters ................................................................................................................................................. 2721
CHARTS Online Retailers Beginning to Dominate Worlds Largest Retailers by Market Cap .............................................................. 2722
CHARTS Shippers Being Squeezed By Online Retailers ...................................................................................................................... 2722
CHARTS Consumer Discretionary Underperforming Consumer Staples Signs of Increasing Squeeze ............................................ 2723
CHARTS Discretionary Retail Sales Trend ............................................................................................................................................ 2723
CHARTS US Retail Sales Ex-Auto & Parts ............................................................................................................................................ 2724
CHARTS Retail Sales Ex-Auto Adjusted for Inflation & Population Growth .......................................................................................... 2725
CHARTS Retail Space Opened Pre-2008 versus Current Rate ............................................................................................................ 2726
CHARTS CMBS Recovered Somewhat but Malls In Trouble ................................................................................................................ 2726
CHARTS Department Store Sales Continue to Erode ........................................................................................................................... 2727
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2728
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Capture market share and get the most out of the consumers that are in our stores ......................... 2728
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - McDonalds Has Worst Month In A Decade ......................................................................................... 2729
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - August Retail Sales: Post-Winter Bounce Fading Fast ....................................................................... 2729
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Weakness reported in restaurants, food service and processors and some retailers ........................ 2734
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Why Aren't "Confident" Consumers Spending? ............................................................................ 2735
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Have not Recovered to the 2007 Pre-Recession Level............................................. 2737
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Why Retail Sales Are Faltering - 60% of Households Have No Real Income Gains .......................... 2740
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Wal-Mart Reduces Guidance - Again! ................................................................................................. 2743
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - 35,000 Franchise Operators in Trouble ............................................................................................... 2744
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Furniture Sales Collapse ............................................................................................................ 2745
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Lower Prices & Discounting Taking a Toll ........................................................................................... 2746
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Weaken on Price Discounting.......................................................................................... 2747
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Wal-Mart Looks to Grow by Embracing Smaller Stores ................................................................ 2748
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - INEQUALITY leads to Economic Adjustments .................................................................................... 2754
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - A Bad Start to the Q Earnings Season ................................................................................................ 2755
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Gallup Highlights Consumers are straining against rising prices" ..................................................... 2756
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Markets Being "Duped" by Misinterpreting Misleading Data ............................................................... 2759
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Rising Beef Costs ............................................................................................................................... 2760
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - - Rising "Prime" Retail Rents ............................................................................................................... 2763
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Tablets Are Making Waiters Obsolete .............................................................................................. 2765
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Weakness in RETAIL Broadens ........................................................................................................... 2767
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Credit Spending Marginally Increasing - But Now on More Expensive Non-Discretionary ................. 2768
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Darden Results Disappoint as Olive Garden Sales Keep Declining & Sells Red Lobster .................. 2769
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Hot ... But Very Dangerous ...................................... 2771
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The Dollar Tree Uptick in its earnings before following economic downturns ........................... 2778
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - E-Commerce Industry Is About To Explode .................................................................................... 2780
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retailers' Profits Miss By Most In 13 Years: "Consumer Is Not Back" ........................................ 2781
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Imploding Retail Floor Space Requirements .................................................................................. 2783
30
July 2015 Edition


COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Family Dollar to cut jobs, shut 370 stores as sales fall ................................................................. 2786
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The Death of a 71% Consumption Driven Economy ...................................................................... 2788
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Getting Worse Fast ............................................................................................................................ 2790
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion ........................................................................................................................... 2792
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion - II ..................................................................................................................... 2793
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Financial Crisis II Coming ................................................................................................................. 2798
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Indoor Mall Retail in Trouble ............................................................................................................. 2805
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Mortgage bonds reflect diverging fortunes of US malls ....................................................................... 2808
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Dead Mall Syndrome: The Self-Reinforcing Death Spiral of Retail ..................................................... 2810
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The First Domino to fall: Retail-CRE (Commercial Real Estate) ......................................................... 2812
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - After Seven Lean Years: US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects 2817
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Cannibalization ................................................................................................................ 2823
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Tsunami of Retail Store Closings and Downsizings Coming ............................................................... 2824
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ....................................................................................................... 2826
OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2829
NATIONAL STATISTICS: COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE ....................................................................................................................... 2830
SPECIAL FOCUS PENSION POVERTY ............................................................................................................................. 2835

NEW-PENSION POVERTY Too Few Contributor versus Beneficiaries .......................................................................................................... 2835
NEW-PENSION POVERTY Its about Public Policy Denial ............................................................................................................................. 2835
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ................................................................................................................................................................... 2836
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2836
NEW-PENSIONS Social Security Deficit Near Term .......................................................................................................................... 2836
NEW-PENSIONS Social Security Deficit Longer Term ....................................................................................................................... 2836
NEW-PENSIONS Household Retirement Accounts ............................................................................................................................... 2837
NEW-PENSIONS Social Security Beneficiaries ..................................................................................................................................... 2837
NEW-PENSIONS PBGCs Safety Net Exposure ................................................................................................................................... 2838
NEW-PENSIONS Public Worries Media Begins To Focus -1 ............................................................................................................. 2838
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2840
NEW-PENSIONS Why are Pensions and Benefits promised to public employees unsustainable? ..................................................... 2840
NEW-PENSIONS Demographics & Low Yield ZIRP Economics ....................................................................................................... 2840
NEW-PENSIONS Investment Risk ..................................................................................................................................................... 2840
NEW-PENSIONS Politics .................................................................................................................................................................... 2841
NEW-PENSIONS Disposable Income ................................................................................................................................................ 2841
NEW-PENSIONS Why is the Social Security System at risk? ............................................................................................................... 2842
NEW-PENSIONS PAYGO and Demographics................................................................................................................................... 2842
NEW-PENSIONS Existing Deficits ..................................................................................................................................................... 2842
NEW-PENSIONS Non-Retirees .......................................................................................................................................................... 2843
NEW-PENSIONS Demographics and Financial Assumptions ........................................................................................................... 2844
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT US RETAIL ................................................................................................................................. 2845

US RETAIL ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2845
RETAIL - Gap to Fire Thousands ............................................................................................................................................................... 2846
RETAIL - Consumers Are Not Following Orders ...................................................................................................................................... 2848
RETAIL - "Double" Seasonal Adjustments ............................................................................................................................................... 2855
RETAIL - Why McDonalds Is Ending Monthly Sales Reports ................................................................................................................. 2858
RETAIL - May Consumer Spending Has Biggest Annual Drop Since Great Financial Crisis ............................................................. 2860
RETAIL - Factory Orders Contract ............................................................................................................................................................. 2863
RETAIL - McDonalds ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2864
RETAIL - Gaming ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2866
RETAIL - WalMart ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2868
RETAIL - Consumer Recession .................................................................................................................................................................. 2870
RETAIL - Vice Index Reflects Plummeting Discretionary Spending ...................................................................................................... 2880
RETAIL - Major U.S. Retailers Are Closing More Than 6,000 Stores ..................................................................................................... 2881
RETAIL - "We Have a Demand Problem Here!" ........................................................................................................................................ 2884
RETAIL - Retail Sales Miss For 4th Month In A Row: First Time Since Lehman .................................................................................. 2890
RETAIL - 14 big stores shrink fastest ........................................................................................................................................................ 2893
RETAIL - McDonald's Franchise Retail CRE is Vulnerable ..................................................................................................................... 2896
RETAIL - U.S. Department Stores a Wider Economic Threat ................................................................................................................. 2900
RETAIL - Value In the Real Estate Assets? ............................................................................................................................................... 2902
RETAIL - Chain Store Sales Growth Worst Since 2010 ........................................................................................................................... 2904
RETAIL - Retail Ex-Debt Fueled Autos-2nd Weakest Year This Century ........................................................................................... 2905
RETAIL - Wal-Mart Cuts Sales Forecast by Nearly 50% .......................................................................................................................... 2908
RETAIL - Wal-Mart Cuts Sales Forecast by Nearly 50% .......................................................................................................................... 2909
RETAIL - Capture market share and get the most out of the consumers that are in our stores ........................................................ 2912
RETAIL - McDonalds Has Worst Month In A Decade ............................................................................................................................... 2913
RETAIL - August Retail Sales: Post-Winter Bounce Fading Fast .......................................................................................................... 2914
RETAIL - Weakness reported in restaurants, food service and processors and some retailers ........................................................ 2919
RETAIL - Why Aren't "Confident" Consumers Spending? ..................................................................................................................... 2919
RETAIL - Retail Sales Have not Recovered to the 2007 Pre-Recession Level ...................................................................................... 2922
RETAIL - Why Retail Sales Are Faltering - 60% Of Households Have No Real Income Gains ........................................................... 2925
31
July 2015 Edition


RETAIL - WalMart Reduces Guidance - Again! ........................................................................................................................................ 2927

RETAIL - 35,000Franchise Operators in Trouble ..................................................................................................................................... 2928
RETAIL - Retail Furniture Sales Collapse ................................................................................................................................................. 2930
RETAIL - Lower Prices & Discounting Taking a Toll ............................................................................................................................... 2931
RETAIL - Retail Sales Weaken on Price Discounting............................................................................................................................... 2932
RETAIL - Wal-Mart Looks to Grow by Embracing Smaller Stores .......................................................................................................... 2934
RETAIL - A Bad Start to the Q Earnings Season ...................................................................................................................................... 2937
RETAIL - Gallup Highlights Consumers are straining against rising prices................................................................................................. 2938
RETAIL - Markets Being "Duped" by Misinterpreting Misleading Data ................................................................................................. 2942
RETAIL - Rising Beef Costs ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2942
RETAIL - Rising "Prime" Retail Rents ....................................................................................................................................................... 2946
RETAIL - Tablets Are Making Waiters Obsolete ....................................................................................................................................... 2948
RETAIL - Weakness in RETAIL Broadens ................................................................................................................................................. 2950
RETAIL - Credit Spending Marginally Increasing - But Now on More Expensive Non-Discretionary................................................ 2952
RETAIL - Darden Results Disappoint as Olive Garden Sales Keep Declining & Sells Red Lobster .................................................. 2952
RETAIL - More Loans Come With Few Strings Attached ........................................................................................................................ 2955
RETAIL - McDonalds Has Longest Stretch Without Rising US Sales In History .................................................................................. 2960
RETAIL - Retail Furniture Sales Collapse.................................................................................................................................................. 2963
RETAIL - Profound Shift to On-Line Retailing .......................................................................................................................................... 2967
RETAIL - Retail Death Rattle Grows Louder ............................................................................................................................................. 2971
RETAIL - E-Commerce Industry Is About To Explode ............................................................................................................................. 2989
RETAIL - ailers' Profits Miss By Most In 13 Years: "Consumer Is Not Back" ....................................................................................... 2990
RETAIL - Dick's Sporting Goods ................................................................................................................................................................ 2992
RETAIL - April Surprised Most Investors who were looking for a stronger reading! ........................................................................... 2994
RETAIL - A 71% Consumption Economy Living off Government Deficits (Temporarily) .................................................................... 2998
RETAIL - Exploding Shift to Online Sales ................................................................................................................................................. 3000
RETAIL - Loss of Anchor Tenants Can Accelerate Downward Spiral .................................................................................................... 3000
RETAIL - Exploding Shift to Online Sales ................................................................................................................................................. 3004
32
July 2015 Edition



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PENSION POVERTY AHEAD

Pensions are Underfunded and No Longer Risk Free

GMTP DATA FILE INDEX

GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - JULY 2015

1 July 2015 Edition

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PENSION POVERTY AHEAD

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK SIGNALS ......................................................................................................................................... 182

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

NEW-YEMEN Middle Eastern Oil Production & Chokepoints .............................................................................................................. 186

GLOBAL MACRO: RISK LEVELS ........................................................................................................................................... 335

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

NEW-CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS .................................................................................................................................. 337

TIPPING POINTS ..................................................................................................................................................................... 343

GLOBAL MACRO: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................ 364

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 422

GLOBAL MACRO: INDICATORS ............................................................................................................................................ 496

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

GLOBAL MACRO: MONETARY POLICY & CENTRAL BANKING .......................................................................................... 588

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

July 2015 Edition

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GEO-ECONOMIC INSTABILITIES........................................................................................................................................... 816

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

NEW-DE-DOLLARIZATION - The Rise & Fall of Modern Empires ............................................................................................................. 822

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

ENERGY Oil Supply / Demand and Price ................................................................................................................................................ 929

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

REGIONAL ........................................................................................................................................... 1133

EU WEAK BUT SOME POSITIVE ECONOMIC NEWS ........................................................................................................ 1137

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

GERMANY GERMANY VERSUS GREECE .................................................................................................................................................... 1334

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

UK - Technically in a Depression ............................................................................................................................................................... 1404

CHINA BEGINS EASING AS CAPITAL FLOWS OUT ......................................................................................................... 1445

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

CHARTS Chinas Gross Fixed Capital Formation Problem ................................................................................................................... 1485

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

CHINA - Global Impact of China's Slowdown ............................................................................................................................................ 1634

JAPAN: 43% OF TAX REVENUE ON DEBT INTEREST ................................................................................................................. 1645

July 2015 Edition

Restricted & Confidential

JAPAN - How Japan's National Debt Grew ............................................................................................................................................... 1723

EMERGING MARKETS CHINA BAILS OUT BRAZIL WITH $50B.............................................................................................. 1789

July 2015 Edition

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