Dr.

Bob's Handy-Dandy Reliability Calculator

Probability That A Specified Number of Failures Will Occur In A Given
Time/Cycle Interval For A Single System - (Mission Failure Prob (1))
This tool computes the probability that a specified number of failures will occur for a single system
test. It can compute:
a) The probability of exactly "n" failures in a mission duration of "t" hours
b) The probability of "n" or fewer failures in a mission duration of "t" hours

Probability that a certain number of failures will occur in a given time/cycle

interval for multiple systems under test - (Mission Failure Prob (2))
Computes the probability of a specific number of failures for a series of systems on test: It can compute:
a) The probability of exactly "n" failures in a mission duration of "t" hours
b) The probability of "n" or fewer failures in a mission duration of "t" hours

Approximate Sample Size Computation

An approximate estimator for sample size, based on the tolerance (interval width)
at a specified confidence level. That is, the sample size estimated provides
the appropriate confidence that the true parameter value is within the specified interval.
This should only be used if the Exact Sample Size computation does not work.

Exact Sample Size Computation

An exact computation of sample size required to achieve a specified reliability (or other measure)
at a given confidence level. It is based upon an iterative non-linear solution technique,
which employs an Excel tool called Solver. Solver is not part of the "Standard" Excel installation.
However, in most cases Solver may be added without reinserting the Excel disk. This tool
is the complementary tool to the Reliability Lower Bound, found on the Reliability Bounds page.

Failure Rate Estimation - Time/Cycle Based Tests

Computes various MTBF and failure rate information for systems on test. The tool computes both
Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) and confidence bounds and can be either:
a) Failure truncated tests (i.e. the test stops after a prescribed number of failures)
b) Time truncated tests (i.e. the test stops after a certain amount of time)

Reliability Bounds Calculator

The exact computation bounds on reliability for various confidence levels, given a number of independent
Bernoulli trials. This tool will compute reliability lower bounds, upper bounds and intervals. This tool is
useful for any Bernoulli-type experiment where an attribute is being measured and a confidence bound is
required. It can also be used to design experiments.

Series and Parallel Calculator

Computes the reliability for simple series and parallel configurations. This will compute reliability for
K - of - N parallel systems as well as simple series systems.

Weibull Distribution Parameter Generator

Given time to failure data as well as success data, this generator will compute Weibull Distribution
parameters via the Maximum Likelihood Method or the Rank Regression Method. The Weibull Distribution
can then be used to determine the probability of failure within a particular interval such as a mission length,
or weapon system life.

Weibayes Methodology Parameter Generator

The Weibayes Methodology is used to generatew Wiebull parameters where there are no failures AND a
Beta parameter can be safely assumed. The Weibull Distribution can then be used to determine the
probability of failure within a particular interval such as a mission length, or weapon system life.

Lognormal Distribution Parameter Generator

Given time to failure data as well as crack propagation, this generator will compute Weibull Distribution
parameters via the Rank Regression Method. The Weibull Distribution can then be used to determine the
probability of failure within a particular interval such as a mission length, or weapon system life.

General usage tips

This toolkit has been password protected to ensu

calculations remain as intended by the author. Us
wishing to alter the toolkit can request permissio
Loomis.

Data is generally entered in yellow cells. Results are

the blue cells. Note that some calculators require pre
button as calculations are made using

Go

Visual Basic numerical routines.

When the failure rate or MTBF is known:

Probability of exactly 10 failures in 1000 increments is:

Lognormal Distribution Parameter Generator

Given time to failure data as well as crack propagation, this generator will compute Weibull Distribution
parameters via the Rank Regression Method. The Weibull Distribution can then be used to determine the
probability of failure within a particular interval such as a mission length, or weapon system life.

Information
This worksheet contains a log of the development of the tool, a list of known bugs, contact information, a
disclaimer and other information which may be of use to the user.

More Methodology, Details, Help

Mission Probability (1)
Probability That A Specified Number of Failures Will Occur In A Given Time/Cycle
Interval for a Single System
The following probabilities may be computed:
a) The probability of exactly "n" failures in a mission duration of "t" hours
b) The probability of "n" or fewer failures in a mission duration of "t" hours
This is an exact solution for the following conditions:
a) When the system fails, it is immediately restored and the test continues
b) Constant Failure Rate
c) Specified time (or cycle, etc)
d) Failures are independent
e) The reliability of the system is P(0) - the probability of no failures in the interval

a) Probability of exactly "n" failures in a mission of "t" hours

When the failure rate or MTBF is known:
Enter Failure Rate or 1/MTBF =
Enter Number of Failures =
Enter Time increment =

0.0002
0
1000

Probability of exactly 0 failures in 1000 increments is:

0.818731

When the Reliability is known:

Enter Reliability Per Increment of Time =
Enter Number of Failures =
Enter Number of Time Increments =
Probability of exactly 4 failures in 250 increments is:

0.999
4
250
250
0.00013

b) Probability of "n" or fewer failures in a mission of "t" hours

When the failure rate or MTBF is known:
Enter Failure Rate or 1/MTBF =
Enter Number of Failures =
Enter Time (cycle) duration =

0.005
3
1000

Probability of 3 or fewer failures in 1000 increments is: 0.265025915

When the Reliability is known:

Enter Reliability Per Increment of Time =
Enter Number of Failures =
Enter Number of time increments =

0.995012479
0
1000

Probability of 0 or fewer failures in 1000 increments is: 0.006737947

Example
"I have a system of known reliability of 0.999 for a one hour
mission. What is the probability of exactly 4 failures in a 250
hour mission?"
Reliability = 0.999
Number of failures = 4
Time duration = 250

Try it

Example
"Suppose I have a system on test and I am going to accept
the system if there are 3 or fewer failures n a 1000 hour test.
If the true system MTBF is 200 hours, what is the probability
that I will accept the system?"
Failure rate = 1/MTBF = 0.005
Number of failures <= 3
Time duration = 1000

Try it

More Methodology, Details, Help

Mission Probability (2)
Probability that a certain number of failures will occur in a given time/cycle interval for
multiple systems under test
The following probabilities may be computed:
a) The probability of exactly "n" failures in a mission duration of "t" hours
b) The probability of "n" or fewer failures in a mission duration of "t" hours
This is an exact solution for the following conditions:
a) A specified number of systems (items, etc) are on test
b) Constant Failure Rate
c) Specified time (or cycle, etc)
d) Failures are independent
e) When an system (item, etc) fails it is not restored

a) Probability of exactly "n" failures in a mission of "t" hours when "N" systems are placed on test:
When the failure rate or MTBF is known:
Enter Number of Systems (Items) On Test =
Failure Rate (1/MTBF) =
Number of Failures =
Time (cycle) duration =

40
0.000333
5
1000

Probability of exactly 5 failures in 1000 hours (cycles) is:

0.010327

Example:

"I have a item with a MTBF believed to be 300

hours. If I put 40 items on test for 1000 hours, what is the
probability of exactly 5 failures?"
Failure rate = 1/MTBF = 0.000333
Number of items on test = 40
Time duration = 1000
Number of failures = 5

Try it

Example:

"I have a device with a reliability assumed to

be 0.9999 per unit time period. If 250 units are tested for 50
time units, what is the probability if exactly 13 failing? "

When the Reliability is known:

Enter Number of Systems (Items) On Test =
Enter Reliability Per Increment of Time =
Enter Number of Failures =
Enter Duration in Time Increments =

250
0.999900
13
500

Probability of exactly 13 failures in 500 increments is:

0.109851

b) Probability of "n" or fewer failures in a mission of "t" hours when "N" Systems are placed on test:
When the failure rate or MTBF is known:
Enter Number of Systems (Items) On Test =
Failure Rate (1/MTBF) =
Number of Failures =
Time (cycle) duration =

250
0.000100
13
500

Probability of 13 or fewer failures in 500 hours (cycles) is:

0.663257

When the Reliability is known:

Number of items on test = 250

Time duration = 500
Reliability = 0.9999
Number of failures = 13

Try it

Example:

"I have a device with an assumed failure rate

of 0.001 failures per time unit. If I test 250 items for 500 time
units, what is the probability of 13 or fewer failures."
Failure Rate = 0.0001
Number of items tested = 250
Duration of Test = 500
Number of failures 13

Try it

Example:

Enter Number of Systems (Items) On Test =

Enter Reliability Per Increment of Time =
Enter Number of Failures =
Enter Duration in Time Increments =

250
0.999900
10
500

Probability of 10 or fewer failures in 500 increments is:

0.321722

"Suppose I have 250 parts on test for 500

hours. If the part reliability for one hour is 0.9999, what is
the probability that I have 10 or fewer failures?"
Number of items on test = 250
Reliability = 0.9999
Duration of test = 500
Number of failures <=10

Try it

h a MTBF believed to be 3000

or 1000 hours, what is the
"

Try it

ith a reliability assumed to

250 units are tested for 500
y if exactly 13 failing? "

Try it

ith an assumed failure rate

I test 250 items for 500 time
13 or fewer failures."

Try it

50 parts on test for 500

ne hour is 0.9999, what is
fewer failures?"

Try it

More Methodology, Details, Help

Exact Sample Size Computation
This tool for the proper sample size for a given confidence and lower bound on reliability.
The input requirements are:
-The Desired Confidence Level
-The Desired Reliability Lower Bound
-The Starting Guess for the Number0of Trials.( "1" usually works just fine)
-The Anticipated Number of Failures (usually "0")
Conceptually, this tool is the inverse of the Reliability Lower Bound Calculator. It provides the sample size required when
the reliability, confidence level and number of failures are specified.
To use this tool, input the items described above, and press SOLVE. Since this tool uses an iterative search technique,
sometimes it does not converge, although most of the time it does. If it does not converge, you will get an error message.
If that happens, try a different initial guess. Although the tool now seems to work well, a few inconsistencies have been
noted and dealt with. The results may be validated using the Reliability Lower Bound Calculator, described previously.

Note that the number of anticipated failures must be less than the number of trials.
Enter the Desired Confidence Level Here:
0.99
Enter the Desired Reliability Lower Bound Here:
0.97
Exact Value of Convergence:
151.19
Enter the Number of anticipated Failures Here (Usually 0):
0
Sample Size =

Solve

152.00

Example
"Suppose it was desired to determine the sample size
required to demonstrate an error rate of no more that 3% at a
99% confidence interval. The tool would be used as stated,
with the Reliability Lower Bound specified as 0.97, since a 3%
or less error rate translates into a 97% or greater reliability."
Confidence = 0.99
Reliabiltiy Lower Bound = 0.97
Anticipated Failures = 0

Additional Comments
This tool can be used for many design-of-experiments applications. For example, suppose there is a requirement to verify
that work is being performed in accordance with documented requirements. The tool can be used to determine the sample
size necessary to demonstrate that performance exceeds a given error rate at a stated confidence level, assuming Bernoulli
trials. Suppose it was desired to determine the sample size required to demonstrate an error rate of no more that 3% at a
99% confidence interval. The tool would be used as stated, with the Reliability Lower Bound specified as 0.97, since a 3%
or less error rate translates into a 97% or greater reliability. Although tests of the type discussed above typically specify no
failures, this tool is flexible enough to develop statistically accurate tests where failures are permitted.
In any case, the results may be validated by using the Reliability Lower Bound Calculator, described previously.

Try it

(be sure to press Solve)

mine the sample size

rate of no more that 3% at a
l would be used as stated,
specified as 0.97, since a 3%
a 97% or greater reliability."

Try it

(be sure to press Solve)

More Methodology, Details, Help

Approximate Sample Size Computation

Use the calculator below to estimate sample sizes.
Before you use this tool, please consider using the Exact Sample Size tool.
In this approximate tool, the tolerance is the difference between the sample
proportion and the true proportion. The algorithm results in a 100(1-alpha)
% confidence that the error in reliability estimate will not exceed the
tolerance specified To use this tool, enter the error tolerance, and
representative sample sizes will be computed. Note that tool assumptions
may be invalid for sample sizes of 10 or less.

Required
Tolerance Confidence
Enter the Desired Tolerance:
0.05
99.90%
99.00%
95.00%
90.00%

Sample
Size
1,083
664
385
271

mple Size tool.

en the sample
100(1-alpha)
d the
and
assumptions

Example
"Suppose you want to independently test a number of drill
heads to estimate, with a 0.05 tolerance and 95%
confidence, the proportion of heads is operating correctly.
What would be the sample size required to ensure such
tolerance and confidence?"
Tolerance = 0.05
Confidence = 95.00%

Try it

More Methodology, Details, Help

Failure Rate Estimation - Time/Cycle Based Tests

The following computes various MTBF and failure rate information for systems on test.
The test utilizes a Chi-Squared distribution and assumes a constant failure rate. The tool
computes both Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) and confidence bounds and can be
either:
a) Failure Truncated (i.e. the test stops after a prescribed number of failures)
b) Time Truncated (i.e. the test stops after a certain amount of time)
Note that the Estimates provided for Reliability and UnReliability are per unit of time (or
cycle) and not for the total time (or cycles) of the test.
.
a) Failure Truncated (Censored)
Num.
Failures
3

Lambda ->
Reliability ->
UnReliability ->

Num
Hours
2000

Note:
Failure Censored tests must
have at least one failure

MTBF
MLE Point
Estimate
666.67

MTBF
50%
Confidence
747.93

MTBF
90%
Confidence
375.8

MTBF
95%
Confidence
317.7

MTBF
99%
Confidence
237.9

MLE Point
Estimate
0.001500
0.998501
0.001499

50%
Confidence
0.001337
0.998664
0.001336

90%
Confidence
0.002661
0.997342
0.002658

95%
Confidence
0.003148
0.996857
0.003143

99%
Confidence
0.004203
0.995806
0.004194

Example

"I ran my system until I had three

hours of runtime. What is my fai
confidence upper bound on failu
lower bound on Reliability?"
Failures = 3
Time of third failure = 2000

b) Time/Cycle Truncated (Censored)

Num.
Failures
3

Lambda ->
Reliability ->
UnReliability ->

Num
Hours
1000

Example

MTBF
MLE Point
Estimate
333.33

MTBF
50%
Confidence
272.33

MTBF
90%
Confidence
149.7

MTBF
95%
Confidence
129.0

MTBF
99%
Confidence
99.6

MLE Point
Estimate
0.003000
0.997004
0.002996

50%
Confidence
0.003672
0.996335
0.003665

90%
Confidence
0.006681
0.993341
0.006659

95%
Confidence
0.007754
0.992276
0.007724

99%
Confidence
0.010045
0.990005
0.009995

"I have a Flight Termination Syst

with three failures. What is 95%
Failures = 3
Operating Hours = 1000

mple

n my system until I had three failures, where the third occurred at 2000
s of runtime. What is my failure rate point estimate and my 90%
dence upper bound on failure rate?" What is my 95% confidence
r bound on Reliability?"

res = 3
of third failure = 2000

Try it

mple

ve a Flight Termination System which has been operating 1000 hours

three failures. What is 95% Confident MTBF for the system?"

res = 3
ating Hours = 1000

Try it

More Methodology, Details, Help

Reliability Bounds Calculator

This section can be used to compute the reliability lower bound,
upper bound or interval for a series of identical tests.
This is an exact computation, based upon identical, independent Bernoulli trials. To
use, enter the number of trials and the number of failures. The tool computes 99.9,
99, 95 and 90% Reliability Lower Bounds, Reliability Upper Bounds and Reliability
Confidence Intervals. The primary advantage that this tool has over similar tools is
that it gives exact computational solutions for situations where failures have been
observed. This tool will evaluate Reliability lower bounds for any number of failures,
including no failures. However, reflecting reality, the tool does not compute upper
reliability bounds or intervals if no failures are recorded. The Lower Bound
Calculator can also be used to evaluate non-reliability sampling by attribute data or
to design an experiment which samples independent Bernoulli trials.

LOWER BOUND CALCULATOR

Required
Confidence
3000
99.00%
2
95.00%
75.00%
50.00%

Reliability
UnReliability
Lower Bound Upper Bound
0.997201
0.002799
0.997903
0.002097
0.998694
0.001306
0.999109
0.000891

UPPER BOUND CALCULATOR

Required
Confidence
99.90%
95.00%
75.00%
50.00%

Reliability
UnReliability
Upper Bound Lower Bound
0.999985
0.000015
0.999882
0.000118
0.999680
0.000320
0.999441
0.000559

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
FOR RELIABILITY

Required
Confidence
99.90%
95.00%
75.00%
50.00%

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

Required

Enter # Trials Here:

Enter # Failures Here:

Reliability
Lower Limit
0.995990
0.997594
0.998336
0.998694

Reliability
Upper Limit
0.999989
0.999919
0.999797
0.999680

UnReliability

UnReliability

Example

"If I have cycled a

confidence level o
Failures = 2
Cycles = 3000

Example

"If I have 100 item

mission reliability
Failures = 0
Trials = 100

FOR UNRELIABILITY

Confidence
99.90%
95.00%
75.00%
50.00%

Lower Limit
0.000011
0.000081
0.000203
0.000320

Upper Limit
0.004010
0.002406
0.001664
0.001306

Example
"If I have cycled a valve 3000 times with 2 failures, what is my 99%
confidence level on Reliability?"
Failures = 2
Cycles = 3000

Try it

Example
"If I have 100 items on test for a given mission with no failures, what
mission reliability am I 99.9% confident of achieving?"
Failures = 0
Trials = 100

Try it

More Methodology, Details, Help

Series and Parallel Reliability Computation and Allocation

The following probabilities may be computed:
System Reliability Determination
a) The reliability and unreliability of a simple series system
b) The reliability and unreliability of a parallel system of "N" items where "K" items are required for system
operation
System Reliability Allocation
a) The reliability required of items in a simple series system to achieve a stated overall system reliability
b) The reliability required of items in a K - of - N parallel system in order to achieve a stated system
reliability
This is an exact solution for the following conditions:
a) A specified number of identical components are in the system
b) Constant Failure Rate
c) Specified Component Reliability or Specified System Reliability Requirement
d) Failures are independent
e) When a component fails it is not restored
f) Active Redundancy in parallel systems

Series Reliability Computation

If the Component Reliability is Known
Enter Component Reliability:
Enter Number of Components:
System Reliability is:
System UnReliability is:
System Failure Rate is:

0.999
20
0.980189
0.019811
0.020010

If the Component Failure Rate is Known

Enter Component Failure Rate 0.0010005003
Enter Number of Components:
20
System Reliability is:
0.980189
System UnReliability is:
0.019811
System Failure Rate is:
0.020010

Series Reliability Allocation

If the System Reliability is known
Enter System Reliability:
Enter Number of Series Components:
Component Reliability is:
Component UnReliability is:
Component Failure Rate is:

Enter System Failure Rate:

Enter Number of Series Components:
Component Reliability is:
Component UnReliability is:
Component Failure Rate is:

0.010005
20
0.999500
0.000500
0.000500

Example

Parallel Reliability Computation:

If the Component Reliability is Known

If the Component Failure Rate is Known

Enter Component Reliability:

Enter Number of Parallel Components:
Enter Number of Required Components:
System Reliability is:
System UnReliability is:
System Failure Rate is:

Enter Component Failure Rate

Enter Number of Parallel Components:
Enter Number of Required Components:
System Reliability is:
System UnReliability is:
System Failure Rate is:

0.9
5
2
0.999540
0.000460
0.000460

"What component reliability is required for

in series in order to achieve a system reliab
System Reliability = 0.999
Series Components = 5

If the System Failure Rate is Known

0.999
5
0.999800
0.000200
0.000200

Example

0.223144
8
5
0.943718
0.056282
0.057927

"If there are five general purpose compute

Shuttle each with a reliability of 0.9 and on
required for reentry, what is the reliability
for reentry?"
Reliabilty = 0.9
Parallel components = 5
Required components = 2

Shuttle each with a reliability of 0.9 and on

required for reentry, what is the reliability
for reentry?"
Reliabilty = 0.9
Parallel components = 5
Required components = 2

ability is required for 5 identical items

chieve a system reliability of .999?"

.999
5

Try it

eral purpose computers on the

eliability of 0.9 and only two are
what is the reliability of the system

=5
ts = 2

Try it

eliability of 0.9 and only two are

what is the reliability of the system

=5
ts = 2

ore Methodology, Details, Help

Weibull Generator

Example
" 7 components have been tested. 5 failed at the times below, 2
remained running and accumulated the following times:"

Given time-to-failure data as well as success data, Weibull Parameters can be

generated using the Rank Regression or Maximum Likelihood Methods.

Failure Times: 1500, 2250, 4000, 4300, 7000

Success times: 1750, 5000

The Weibull Distribution combines success and failure data and can characterize
the life of
3205.5810576
the associated components. A Beta (commonly the slope of the curve) described the nature
of the failure, with a Beta < 1 implying infant motality, a Beta = 1 implying a random failure
mode, and a Beta > 1 implying a wearout mode.

Use Ranked Regression to calculate the Weibull parameters.

Success times and failure times are entered in the yellow culumns. Pressing "Go" will
calculate the Weibull parameters associated with the data. the BXX life values represent the
time at which XX percent of the units are likely to fail. For instance, in the example below,
the component will have a 0.1% chance of failing within 110 operating hours. The "Custom
Percent Failed" cell allows the user to enter any reqired value, which could be associated
with Safety Requirement.

"At what point in the copmponents life is it expected to have a 63.2%

chance of having failed?"
Custom Percent Failed: 63.20%
"Try the same same example as above, but use Maximum Likelihood
to estimate the values for eta and beta, but use a 1400 unit shift for
the times."
t0 shift = 1400

Success Times Failure Times

1750
1500
5000
2250
4000
4300
7000

Successes
Failures
Calculated Beta
Calcualted Eta
R Squared
T0 Shift

2
5
1.0464
3206
NA
1400.0000

No t0 Shift
Specify t0:
Draw the PDF on the plot
Draw a Histogram on the plot
Generate A Plot
Put a title on the plot:
Put Weibull Information (Beta,Eta,Estimation

B.1 Life
B1 Life
B10 Life
B50 life
Custom Percent Failed

Go

Weibayes Generator

Estimation Type:

63.20%

1404.3574
1439.5120
1773.2053
3658.3680
4604.5773

Save Entered Data

Open Saved Data
Send Data To:

Lognormal Generator

Delete Weibull Plots

Chart Tab Name:

X-Axis Units:

ore Methodology, Details, Help

Weibayes Generator

Example

When working with small sample sizes and a known beta, the Weibayes Distribution
produces more accurate results.

"The component in the first Weibull example, that had a Beta with
1.81, was redesigned. The new design unit has been tested for
the following times without failure:"

The Weibayes is a one variable Weibull with a known beta. It remains accurate
with small
325325.67294
sample sizes and does not require any failures. Beta can be used from previous tests after a
redesign to determine testing requirements, pulled from a library of Weibulls, or determined
from past experience.
Choose the option corresponding to the type of data you have. Then enter the data in the
"Success Times" and "Failure Times" columns as necessary. Enter the assumed Beta in the
input box and click "Go" to generate the Weibull properties. If "Generate A Plot" is selected, a
new Weibull graph will be create as well. The "Custom Percent Failed" allows for determining
a spcific B-life.

Success Times Failure Times

15000
22000
24000
30000
62800
68000
72000
76000
80000
95000

Successes
Failures
Beta
Calcualted Eta

"At what point inthe copmponents life is it expected to have a

63.2% chance of having failed?"
Custom Percent Failed: 63.20%
"Ten units were received for a rebuild. The operating hours and
total number of failures are known, but the specific failures are
not identified."

10
0
0.8930
325326

B.1 Life
B1 Life
B10 Life
B50 life
Custom Percent Failed

63.20%

142.2653
1884.1633
26175.3609
215809.9046
325206.3069

Beta:

Suspensions and Failures

Times Only with a known number of failu

Generate A PlotSuspensions Only with a desired confide

Save Entered Data

Open Saved Data
Send Data To:
Lognormal Generator

What are the new parameters with 90% confidence?

Beta = 0.893
Failures = 2
Sucessed = 15k, 22k, 24k, 30k, 62.8k, 68k, 72k, 76k, 80k, 95k

Go

Weibull Generator

Success Times: 7000, 8575 ,9505 ,12300

Delete Weibayes Plots

Put a title on the plot:

Put Weibayes Information (Beta, Eta, et

Chart Tab Name:

X-Axis Units:

ore Methodology, Details, Help

Lognormal Generator

Example

Given time-to-failure data as well as success data, Lognormal Parameters can be

generated using the Rank Regression Methods.
Like the Weibull Distribution, the Lognormal Distribution combines success and failure data
and can characterize the life of the associated components. Sharing several many properties
with the Normal Distribution, the Lognormal Distribution has a standard deviation, which
determines the slope. The Mean is a scale parameter.
Success times and failure times are entered in the yellow culumns. Pressing "Go" will calculate
the Lognormal parameters associated with the data. the BXX life values represent the time at
which XX percent of the units are likely to fail. For instance, in the example below, the
component will have a 0.1% chance of failing within 110 operating hours. The "Custom Percent
Failed" cell allows the user to enter any reqired value, which could be associated with Safety
Requirement.

Success Times Failure Times

1750
1500
5000
2250
4000
4300
7000

Successes
Failures
Mean
Standard Deviation
R Squared
T0 Shift

Weibull Generator

Weibayes Generator

Failure Times: 1500, 2250, 4000, 4300, 7000

Success times: 1750, 5000
"At what point in the copmponents life is it expected to have a
63.2% chance of having failed?"
Custom Percent Failed: 63.20%
" Local Flight Safety policy is to keep the probability of a critical
comonent failure less than 0.01 % chance. What should the life
restriction be to ensure this polocy is adheared to?"
Custom Percent Failed: 0.01%

2
5
8.2788
0.7168
0.970854
0.0000

B.1 Life
B1 Life
B10 Life
B50 life
Custom Percent Failed

Go

" 7 components have been tested. 5 failed at the times below, 2

remained running and accumulated the times below."

63.20%

429.9588
743.4179
1572.1372
3939.6040
5016.6399

Generate A

Save Entered Data

Open Saved Data
Send Data To:
Delete Lognormal Plots

Estimation Type:

No t0 Shift
Specify t0:
Draw the PDF on the plot
PlotDraw a Histogram on the plot
Put a title on the plot:
Put Lognormal Information (Mean ,Estim

Chart Tab Name:

X-Axis Units:

Developed by Robert J. Loomis, Ph.D.

If you have any corrections or suggestions for additional features please
contact Dr. Loomis. This is intended to be a living tool and to the extent
reasonable controlled with validated tools and techniques. New suggestions
are eligible to win a free version of this spreadsheet! Of course, it is free
anyway, so that may not be much of an incentive.
This product may be freely used, provided appropriate credit is given. This
product may be freely distributed, provided that appropriate credit is given,
and that it distributed in its entirety and not sold or incorporated in any product
that is sold. No warranty is made regarding the accuracy of any of the tools
herein, and no liability is assumed for any use or misuse of these tools. By
using the tools, the user agrees to accept all liability and hold the author or
any other sponsor blameless for any adverse consequences.
Dr. Loomis can be contacted for comments, questions, or suggestions at:
Robert J. Loomis, Jr., Ph.D.
Deputy Director
Safety and Mission Assurance
Dryden Flight Research Center Developer Information
Phone: 661.276.5878
Fax: 661.276.2193
robert.loomis@mail.dfrc.nasa.gov

Known Bugs
1. DRAT toolbar does not hide when other workbooks are
activated. The DRAT toolbar may be manually closed by
going to the View>Toolbars section of the Excel Menu.
2. If two instances of this spreadsheet are open simultaneo
on the same machine, and one is closed, the custom too
buttons will disappear in the second (still open) instance
3. The accuracy of the analyses in this tool are dependent
the validity of the statistical distributions in Excel. The
statistical distributions in Excel vary in accuracy dependi
on the version of Excel being used. There is considerab
discussion about this in numerous websites that can be
found with an Internet search. A Microsoft Knowledge B

2. If two instances of this spreadsheet are open simultaneo

on the same machine, and one is closed, the custom too
buttons will disappear in the second (still open) instance
3. The accuracy of the analyses in this tool are dependent
the validity of the statistical distributions in Excel. The
statistical distributions in Excel vary in accuracy dependi
on the version of Excel being used. There is considerab
discussion about this in numerous websites that can be
found with an Internet search. A Microsoft Knowledge B
article lists the following substantial improvements for Ex
2003.
a. LINEST and related functions.
b. NORMSDIST and related functions.
c. Functions that involve sums of squares (for examp
VAR and STDEV).
d. Continuous distribution inverse functions (for exam
CHIINV, FINV, NORMSINV, and TINV).
e. Functions for discrete distributions (for example,
BINOMDIST and POISSON).
f. Random number generator (RAND).
While earlier versions of Excel appear to be suspect afte
third decimal place, Comparisons between Excel 2002 a
Minitab for the Reliability Bounds worksheet indicate 5+
decimal places of consistency. As mentioned, a search
reveal considerable discussion on the Internet about the
accuracy of Excel statistical functions. The Microsoft
Knowledge Base reference is listed below.
Microsoft Reference to Statistical Accuracy in Excel (Item 3 of Known Bugs)
http://support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?kbid=828888&product=xl2003

please
extent
uggestions
is free

en. This
is given,
any product
the tools
ools. By
author or

ons at:

Version Log
Summary of earlier versions:
1.0-1.6 Basic Toolkit functionality developed. Peer Review by
RAC. Recommendations for additional tools and functionality
1.6-2.0.7 Additional functionality added. Enhanced look and
feel. Development of Help pages.
2.0.8
Reliability Lower Bound Calculator additions:
o Upper Bounds
o Interval
Approximate Sample Size cell turns red and flags alert if
sample size < 11
Weibull Help works with protection
Contact Info added to pages
Version Log created (this log)
2.0.9
Known Bugs List Created
Minor revisions to text in several places
2.0.10
Change labeling on Reliability Bounds buttons and tabs to
reflect incorporation of upper bounds and intervals
Revision of help discussion for Reliability Bounds to reflect
incorporation of upper bounds and intervals
Added IF statements to certain computations to test for
values out of range or infeasible initial conditions
Renamed this page to Information and added a link to it
on the first (Introduction) page.

2.1.0 August 2004 - Major additions to the curve fitting functions

2.1.0 August 2004 - Major additions to the curve fitting functions

General
o Help pages automatically disappear when another
tool is selected
Front Page Added descriptions and hyperlinks to new
curve fitting pages.
Exact Sample Size
o Excel Solver eliminated with an iterative solver.
o Help changes to reflect methodology
Approximate Sample Size
o Example clarified with a more descriptive narrative
Curve fitting tools added - general attributes
o Help pages offer a supplemental GUI help page!
o Data save functions under a .drat extension
o Data can be sent to each other tool for comparisons
o Full plot capabilities with various display options
PDF, Histograms, Title, Legend, more
o Plots deleted by button.
Weibull Generator
o Completely re-tooled
o Maximum Likelihood OR Rank Regression
o Prompt for user to lean toward ML
o T-zero adjustment!
Weibayes
o NEW!!!
o Allows suspensions AND failures!
o Grey out failure column when not used
Lognormal
o NEW!!!
Information Page
o Button added to get help from the authors
Dr. Loomis