Anda di halaman 1dari 9

CHAPTER 5 - DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Discrete Probability Distribution Mean


= xi*P(xi)
E(x)== xi*P(xi)
xi

(Value of the random variable for the ith outcome)

P(xi)
n

(The probability the the ith outcome will occur)

(The number of outcomes in the distribution)

These are all specific whole numbers ie. People at tables

Discrete Probability Distribution Variance


2=( xi2 * P(xi) ) - 2
Discrete Probability Distribution Standard Variation
= 2
Expected Monetary Value EMV
EMV =
Binomial Distribution: Mean and Standard Deviation
n (number of trials)
8
p (probability of success)
0.08
q (probability of failure)
0.92
=np
0.64
=npq
0.767333
P(x)=BINOMDIST(x,n,p,FALSE or TRUE)
0.870241 0.129759
(false is the probability of exactly x)
(true is the probability of x or fewer)

Poisson Distribution: Mean and Standard Deviation


x (The number of occurences of interest over the time interval)
5 0.148674
(The mean number of occurences over the interval)
6.4
x!
P(x) = (xe-)/x!
2= (Variance is Lambda)
P(x) = POISSON(x,,FALSE or TRUE)
(false is the probability of exactly x occurences)
(true is the probability of x or fewer occurences)

P(x) = ( (np)x * e-(np) ) / x!


(The above is used for using a Poisson distribution to approximate a binomial)

Hypergeometric Distribution
x (The number of successes in the sample)
n (The sample size)
R (The number of successes in the population)

2
8
7

3
5
10

N (The population size)


P(x) = HYPGEOMDIST(x,n,R,N,FALSE)
= (n*R)/N

36
25
0.329653 0.237154 0.566807

= SQRT(((nR) (N-R))/N2) * SQRT((N-n)/(N-1))

CHAPTER 6 - CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS


Normal Probability Distribution
x
530

522

124
z score
0.064516
Probability in Table

0.145161 0.064516
0.5596
0.5239

Using Normal Distribution to Approximate Binomial Distribution


=np
0.98
=npq
0.918041
n=sample size
7
p=probability
0.14
q=1-p
0.86
x=value of interest
2
P(x a)=P(za)
1.111061
0.1335
P(x a)=1 - P(z a)
P(x = a)=P(z (a+.5)) - P(z (a-.5))

Exponential Probability Distribution


(Customers per Hour)
=1/ (Minutes per Person)
=
P(x a)= 1- e-a
a
Continuous Uniform Distribution
f(x)=1/(b-a)
x1
x2
a
b
P(x1 x x2) (less than x minutes)

522
0.001
0.001916
1000
0.043769 31.62278
1
1200

0.59343
900

0.40657

0.025 0.083333 0.083333


210

22.5

19

250
210
250

28
16
28

25
16
28

1 0.458333
0.5
230
22
22
11.54701 3.464102 3.464102

Percentile (known)= (x2-x1)/(b-a)

CHAPTER 7 - SAMPLING AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS


Sampling Error = -
The Sample Mean minus the Population Mean

Standard Error of the Mean


n

-x = / n (where is the standard dev and n is sample size)

123.6023

Z score of the Sample


z = (sample mean-mean of the sample means)/standard error of the mean

N
n

= i * P(i)

z
If population size is finite and N/n > .05,
then the standard error must be adjusted.
= / n becomes
= / n *
SQRT((N-n)/(N-1))
If sample size n 30, then =
Sample Proportion
P= x/n
x (number of observations of interest in the sample or successes)
n (Sample size or trials)
Error of the Proportion
(population proportion)
n (sample size)
p = SQRT((*(1-))/n)
Z Score of Proportion
P
zp = (P-)/p

36
8
7
2880
10000
7
1018.234
10.97244

0.8749

910.736 REMEMBER IF USING ADJUSTED OR UNADJUST

4
40

0.08
8
0.095917
0.125
0.469157

xi

p(xi)

12

0.096

0.192

40

0.32

0.96

70

0.56

2.24

3
125

0.024

0.12
3.512

4
9
16

0.096
0.32
0.56

0.384
2.88
8.96

25

0.024

ers ie. People at tables, kids in vans


xi^2

0.6
12.824 0.489856

0.0357

DJUSTED OR UNADJUSTED ERROR IN Z SCORE CALCULATION

30-Dec
0.125

0.699897