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Fundamental and Technical Analysis

*
Present by : Tok Boom Marking
(Ahmad Firdaus b. Ab hadi)

FOREX the foreign exchange market or currency


market or Forex is the market where one currency is traded
for another. It is one of the largest markets in the world.

* Trader - is a person that buy and sell financial


instruments, expecting for profits.

* Buy Low, Sell High. Not Lowest and Highest.


* Buy low, sell high. Seems like a pretty

straightforward strategy to successful investing, but


how many people know howor even attemptto
do it? Greed and fear have many individual investors
doing exactly the oppositebuying (or holding) high,
and selling (or not holding) low. Source wall street
journal.
* This, essentially, is what rebalancing a portfolio is all
about: a prudent strategy for managing an investors
overall risk.
* Eleanor Blayney Trader Bank

* Naked Chart mean the trader used candle as a


indicator or we call trading without other
indicator.

Trader adalah seorang jeneral, seorang pemilik dana trading. Sebagai seorang jeneral, trader
bertanggung jawab menentukan strategi trading dimana untuk memahami market forex sekarang ini (trend
lines), kekuatan market forex sekarang ini (bull, bear atau sideways) dan kawasan medan perang tempat
bertempur (sesi market Tokyo, London atau New York).

Untuk mendukung strategi trading yang digunakan, seorang trader harus terlebih dahulu mempersiapkan
segala strategi sebelum menyerang musuh (pair forex, Gold atau Oil), waktu dan tempat medan perang
berdasarkan segala informasi (news kalender ekonomi atau isu-isu market yang beredar) dan interpretasi
dari informasi tersebut.

Persiapan perang ini termasuk di dalamnya mengukur kekuatan gerakan musuh, volatilitas dan arah dari
gerakan musuh (short term atau long term trend).

Seorang trader perlu membuat suatu strategi trading (buy atau sell, long term atau short term trading) dan
margin trading dari dana yang digunakan (money management). Setelah semua data dan prediksi yang
telah dibuat, trader menunggu pergerakan chart suatu pair untuk menentukan titik open posisi yang tepat,
misalnya buy / sell ketika terjadi koreksi.

Ketika open posisi telah dibuat, trader mengamati perkembangan open posisi trading yang telah dibuat.
Trader harus selalu siap untuk merubah arah open posisi trading atau melakukan cut loss berdasarkan
perkembangan dan pergerakan chart trading yang terjadi.

Seorang trader adalah pejuang kecil. Trader tidak memiliki jumlah dana yang besar untuk melawan
kekuatan market forex ataupun melawan institusi besar seperti Bank Central. Apa yang trader boleh
lakukan adalah membaca gelagat yang diberikan oleh market forex itu sendiri, mengintepretasikannya
dengan cepat dan mengimplementasikannya ke dalam posisi trading yang sedang berjalan berdasarkan
disiplin money management dan strategi trading yang dipakai.

*Sun Tzu-The Art of


Trading

SWOT

Swing Trader

Intraday Trader

Scalping Trader

Strengths

-Less opened position


-Less stressful
-Less SL hit (news)
-Big profits

-Many opened position


- Medium profit

-More opened position


-Fast profit

Opportunities

-Technical Analysis
rarely invalidated
-Less interest for
institutional Trader
Medium risk = medium
profit.

-News trading
-high risk-high profit

- Technical trading
- Indicator Ref.

Weaknesses

-Less opened position


-Slow profit
-Opened position
Management

-Emotional consuming
(stressful)
-Technical Analysis often
invalidated

- Time consuming
- Small profits/trade
(pips)

Threats

- Swap points
- High impact news

-Contradictory News
-SL hunting
-Leverage

- No SL
- Leverage
- News

Timeframe Use

TF Weekly, Monthly and


Daily

TF Daily, H1 and H4

TF H1, M30, M15 and M1

Percentage Win (%)

15% to 20%

Other trader, Position Trader percentage win 80%

5%

3%

*
*
*

*
*
*

Technical analysis is the framework in which traders study price movement.


The theory is that a person can look at historical price movements and determine the
current trading conditions and potential price movement.
The main evidence for using technical analysis is that, theoretically, all current market
information is reflected in price. If price reflects all the information that is out there, then
price action is all one would really need to make a trade.
Now, have you ever heard the old adage, "History tends to repeat itself"?
Well, that's basically what technical analysis is all about! If a price level held as a key
support or resistance in the past, traders will keep an eye out for it and base their trades
around that historical price level.
Technical analysts look for similar patterns that have formed in the past, and will form
trade ideas believing that price will act the same way that it did before.

*
Sources: http://www.babypips.com/school/technical-analysis.html#ixzz2fxzNNezC

Basic Technical Analysis


Support and Resistance (SNR)
Supply and Demand (SND)
Price Action and Volume (PnV)
Cs Pattern and Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger
Big Round Numbers (BRN)
Marking Price (MP)
How to Entry through Marking Price?
Candle bank (CB)
Market Session
Factor of Time for Open daily, Tokyo Open, London Open and Us Open (TLUO Method)-Volatile
Tokyo breakout Technic (Tok Boom Founder)
2 Confirmation Candle Technic (2CC)
Close Market Technic 10/11

Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand
meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand
(up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with
bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and
other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices
decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears
slug it out for control.

Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to


prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines
towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers
become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed
that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.

Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to


prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances
towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less
inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that
supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance..

Resistance

Support
Resistance
becomes Support

Range Market
Example 120pips

Big Repair

Support Become Resistance

Range market would be consider based on volume and trending.

Break

Reject

In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up).
Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with
bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and
other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices
decline. When supply and demand (SND) are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and
bears slug it out for control.

Retest Zone SND

V120
Use Price Action in Trending

V90
V60
V30
PNV
V30
15 pips
V60

Trend

* Tips Volume:-

Transition Pattern between downtrend and Uptrend

*Cs Pattern and Chart Pattern

by Dan Zanger

* Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger

* Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger

* As a naked chart trader, Price is all about

with price u should known SNR and when to


OP Not many trader us price as subject of
entryWhat price u should markingWhy?

Monday

Marking Monday to entry Tuesday


L1
Convert to Line Chart
L3
L4
L5

1. Marking Low and high Body Candle, it mean L1 and L2


2. And than, create more line based on wave or close price.
3. Assuming the line as support and resistance.

L2

Monday

Tuesday
L1

breakout

L2

4. If breakout, refer previous day based on wave.

1.30000

*Big round Numbers

(BRN)

EurUsd

*Big round Numbers

(BRN)

Sydney Open

Tokyo Open

London Open

Us Open

London Close

Us Close

Sydney Session (5.00am 2.00pm)


Tokyo Session (8.00am 5.00pm)
Volatile Session 3.00pm-5.00pm

London Session (3.00pm 12.00am)


Volatile Session (9.00pm 11.00pm)

Us Session (9.00pm 5.00am)

5.00am

8.00am

3.00pm

9.00pm

(GMT +7:00) Bangkok Hanoi, Jakarta

11.00pm 5.00am

http://mc24.ch/index.html

http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php

6.00am
Open daily

Sideway More than 8 hours


8.00am
Tokyo Open

High Volatile on London Session


Volatile Zone

It Create resistance Area

Breakout Line 25pips

Breakout Line1

Breakout Line2
Pair EU, GU, GC and UC
but not JPY pairing.

Entry Here
How to Entry:1. Need to breakout L1 or L2 before 3pm.
2. Need to breakout Line 25pips again.
25pips 3. Entry above or below based which
Line market breakout.
4. If market breakout before 10am,
need to close OP before 3pm.
5. If market breakout after 10am.
need to close by 6pm either profit
or lose.
6. Recommendation SL 30pips.
Other. need to see BBC news for high
Impact news such earthquakes, tsunami
or wars speculate.

*Tokyo breakout Technic

(Tok Boom Founder)

2 hour Reject
Entry
Here.

Tips:Why need 2 candle


Confirmation
1. We need to know the
volatile is low.
2. We know that price
is clearly reject or break.
3. Trader always entry SNR
by one candlegamble
50-50.

http://www.forexmentor.com/londonclose-old/10000pips/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glonD2Zl4ag (Noble Entry)

*
*

*
*

Fundamental analysis is a way of looking at the market by analyzing economic, social,


and political forces that affects the supply and demand of an asset. If you think about
it, this makes a whole lot of sense! Just like in your Economics 101 class, it is supply
and demand that determines price.
Using supply and demand as an indicator of where price could be headed is easy. The
hard part is analyzing all the factors that affect supply and demand.
In other words, you have to look at different factors to determine whose economy is
rockin' like a Taylor Swift song, and whose economy sucks. You have to understand the
reasons of why and how certain events like an increase in unemployment affect a
country's economy, and ultimately, the level of demand for its currency.
The idea behind this type of analysis is that if a country's current or future economic
outlook is good, their currency should strengthen. The better shape a country's
economy is, the more foreign businesses and investors will invest in that country. This
results in the need to purchase that country's currency to obtain those assets.

*
Sources: http://www.babypips.com/school/fundamental-analysis.html#ixzz2fy0R3HOe

Basic Fundamental Analysis


* Type of Market participants
* Size of Market
* Major factor of Fundamental
* Top 10 Bank currency traders
* Most Traded Currencies by Value
* 8 Major Currency
* 9 Major pair Analysis
* US Dollar Index
* USDX Components
* Person Behind Big Bank
* What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency?
* How to study stock market on Bloomberg?
* Forexfactory Analysis
* BBC is the best News Updated
* CME group Analysis
* COT (Commitment of Traders)
* Effect news for other currency?
* List of website
* Summary of Fundamental Analysis

Type of Market participants

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Commercial companies
Central banks
Foreign exchange fixing
Hedge funds as speculators
Investment management firms
Retail foreign exchange traders
Non-bank foreign exchange companies
Money transfer/remittance companies and bureau de
change

* As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal

of perfect competition, notwithstanding currency intervention by central


banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements, as of April
2010, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is
estimated at $3.98 trillion, a growth of approximately 20% over the
$3.21 trillion daily volume as of April 2007. Some firms specializing on
foreign exchange market had put the average daily turnover in excess
of US$4 trillion.

* The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:


$1.490 trillion in spot transactions
$475 billion in outright forwards
$1.765 trillion in foreign exchange swaps
$43 billion currency swaps
$207 billion in options and other products

Basic Fundamental factor would effect the currency Trend.


Residential Mortgage
Interest Rate
Jobless claims
Debt ceiling
Unemployment
New Home Sales
Economic crisis
Manufacturing activity
Purchasing Power
Growth rate
Political Issue
Trade Balance
Bond market
GDP Data(Gross Domestic product)
Wars Sentiment
Tsunami or Earthquake

* List for 8 major currency


1. Euro
2. Us Dollar
3. Great British Pound
4. Swiss Franc
5. Australian Dollar
6. Canadian Dollar
7. New Zealand Dollar
8. Japanese Yen
Why yuan is not in 8 major currency?

* List of pair:1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

EuroUsd
UsdJpy
GbpUsd
UsdChf
AudUsd
UsdCad
NzdUsd
Oil
Gold
Based on 9 pair, we should known trend of Usd currency either strong
or weak.

The Federal Bank


(FOMC)

European Central Bank


(ECB)

Mario Draghi

Ben Bernanke

Bank Of Japan
(BOJ)

Haruhiko Kuroda

5 Factor FX Implications

*US Dollar (USD)


1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Residential Mortgage

Interest Rate
Unemployment Rate
Political issue in Middle East

Gold Trending

* What Major issue would

create up and down for 8


currency?

*Euro (EUR)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

Dollar Us strong
Manufacturing
Unemployment Rate
Interest Rate
Exports Data
EU Member
Economic Crisis

*What Major issue would

create up and down for


8 currency?

* Great Britain Pound (GBP)


1. Manufacturing Production
2. MPC Rate
3. Services PMI
4. Construction PMI
5. Business Friendly
6. Interesting on Index Data

*What Major issue would

create up and down for


8 currency?

* Japanese Yen (JPY)


1. No 1 Product Exporter
2. Inflation
3. No 1 importer oil
4. Nikkei Index
5. Us currency

*What Major issue would

create up and down for


8 currency?

* Swiss Franc (CHF)


1. Stable Currency
2. France, Italy and Germany
3. EU Member
4. Interesting on Index Data

*What Major issue would

create up and down for


8 currency?

* Australian Dollar (AUD)


1. Sensitive on gold price
2. Gold production (No 2 )

*What Major issue would

create up and down for


8 currency?

* Canadian Dollar (CAD)


1. Sensitive on oil price
2. Oil production (No 9)

*What Major issue would

create up and down for


8 currency?

* New Zealand Dollar (NZD)


1. Follow Australian Currency
2. Gold production

*What Major issue would

create up and down for


8 currency?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/

*How to study stock


market on Bloomberg?

*How to study stock


market on Bloomberg?

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=sep15.2013

*Forexfactory
Analysis

*Forexfactory
Analysis

*Forexfactory
Analysis

High Risk News


Category

Type Of Impact

Time and Date

FOMC Meeting Minutes

High Impact

2.00am (Middle of the


Month)

ECB Press Conference

High Impact

8.30pm (First Week


Every Month)

BOJ Press Conference

High Impact

10.00am (First Week


Every Month)

ADP Non-Farm
Employment
Change(ADP)

Medium Impact

8.30pm ( One days


Before NFP)

Unemployment Claims
(UC)

Medium Impact

8.30pm ( One days


Before NFP)

Non-Farm Employment
Change (NFP)

Medium Impact

8.30pm (First Week


Every Month)-Friday

Unemployment
Rate(UR)

Medium Impact

8.30pm ( One days


Before NFP)

*BBC is the best


News Updated

http://www.cmegroup.com/

*CME group Analysis

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm

* Even if you are a day trader of longer time investment, as swing


trader, you need to know how COT reports are. Therefore you
should check these reports, before you enter short or long trade. If
COT reports "show" many short traders are in the market, you
should reconsider your entry, if you wanna go long. Even if you,
based on your technical analysis want otherwise. These reports
tell us if buyers are in control of the market, base on there
positions, or sellers. You dont wanna bet against the market. You
should be "friend with the trend":

* How to ready COT, by following the next steps:


1. Go to "Market Reports" on the menu.
2. Select "This month in Futures Markets"
3. Scroll down until "Financials"
4. On the right side you have the text (reports) and on the left side
a chart and the numbers/contracts (in thousands).

Latest Updated EU

Latest Updated Gold

* Effect news for other


currency?

*Effect news for other


currency?

*Effect news for other


currency?

3 Step how to
know the
trend.

Stock market
Tokyo Open
(Nikkei Index)
London Open
(STOXX Index)
Us Open (DJIA
Index)
Sources
Bloomberg

Big News such


FOMC Speech
or NFP
Source
Forexfactory

Priority 1
If Earthquake,
follow the
sentiment.

Priority 2,
Priority 3, if
If FOMC, follow not Earthquake
the news.
or news FF,
follow stock
market.

Big News such


Earthquake,
Tsunami or
Wars
Sentiment
Source BBC

Priority 4.
Combine
technical
analysis and
fundamental
analysis.

*Summary of
Fundamental Analysis

List of Website
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm
http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/Buzz/FX_Positioning.html
http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
http://www.babypips.com/
http://mc24.ch/index.html
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
http://www.ensignsoftware.com/downloads.php
http://www.bloomberg.com/
http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/volume-open-interest/exchange-volume.html
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746255?region=world
http://www.timeanddate.com/time/dst/2013.html
http://www.bbc.com/
http://www.ukforex.co.uk/exchange-rate
http://www.futurecurrencyforecast.com/
http://www.eia.gov/
http://www.reuters.com/
http://www.forexlive.com/
http://asia.wsj.com/home-page
http://www.marketwatch.com/
http://www.chartpattern.com/understanding_chart_patterns.html

*List of website

Cara-cara pengiraan Money management jika trading lebih dari 1 lot

Contoh:
Risk 2% per trade
Sekiranya equity atau modal usd1000 dan risk 2%,
1000usd x 2% = usd20 risk per lot
utk lot 1st ,
1000usd X 2%=20usd risk,
jika lot 1st,terkena stoploss,balance =980usd.
Untuk lot ke 2nd,
980usd x 2%=19.60 usd risk.
Jika lot ke 2nd,terkena stoploss,balance =960.40usd.
Untuk lot ke 3rd,
960.40usd x 2%=19.20 usd risk.
Jika lot ke 3rd,terkena stoploss,balance =941.20usd.

Begitulah cara pengiraan Money management untuk lot yang seterusnya berdasarkan
stoploss level,iaitu 2% risk menggunakan kaedah baki terakhir selepas harga terkena
stoploss.

Equity 100usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot size

Equity 1000usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot size

Equity 10000usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot size

* How to calculate Margin % based on Leverage


* Assume the equity 100usd
* The Leverage 500
* % Margin is Equity X Leverage
* Total % Margin 50,000, such u have 50,000usd
* Assume Mini Account, 0.01 is 10sen usd.
* If u entry lot 0.01, you % margin is 50,000
* If u entry lot 0.1, you % margin is 5,000
* If u entry lot 1.0, you % margin is 500
* % margin mean is percent to Margin Call(MC)

Leverage

Equity

% Margin to MC

0.01

500

1000

500,000

0.1

500

1000

50,000

1.0

500

1000

5,000

10.0

500

1000

500

Lot Size

Leverage

Equity

% Margin to MC

0.01

1000

1000

1,000,000

0.1

1000

1000

100,000

1.0

1000

1000

10,000

10.0

1000

1000

1,000

Lot Size

Leverage

Equity

% Margin to MC

0.01

3000

1000

3,000,000

0.1

3000

1000

300,000

1.0

3000

1000

30,000

10.0

3000

1000

3,000

Comparison based on Leverage

Edited By Tok Boom Marking

Lot Size

BONUS 100 % or Leverage 1:3000 ? Which Better!!!

Leverage

Equity + 100 %
BONUS

% Margin to MC

0.01

500

1000 + 1000

1,000,000

0.1

500

1000 + 1000

100,000

1.0

500

1000 + 1000

10,000

10.0

500

1000 + 1000

1,000

Lot Size

Leverage

Equity

% Margin to MC

0.01

3000

1000

3,000,000

0.1

3000

1000

300,000

1.0

3000

1000

30,000

10.0

3000

1000

3,000

Summary, better leverage compare bonus.

Leverage
1: 3000

Lot Size

Bonus 100%

If u deposit 1000 USD

*Good % Margin is 3300 an above.

Kenapa perlunya MM?

a) Tidak ada satu pun di antara beribu2 indikator yang wujud, mampu
memberi 100% keuntungan kepada traders.
b) Tidak ada seorang pun di dunia ini yg tahu ke mana sebenarnya arah
market akan bergerak .
Maka dengan ini konsep MM ini amat perlu untuk mengelak situasi di luar
jangkaan dan sebagai contoh, cuba anda perhatikan situasi yang
sedemikian:1. Too much volatile - terlalu banyak pergerakan naik/turun yang mendadak
2. News manipulation - manipulasi berita
3. Political Event - acara politik
4. Internet connection - keadaan sambungan internet
5. Server issue - masalah server
6. Greed and Fear - sifat takut dan tamak
7. Human error - kesilapan manusia
8. Low capital - modal yg rendah
9. Low economic knowledge - pengetahuan ekonomi yg rendah
10. Low chart understanding - pengetahuan chart yg rendah

Salam..dah ramai yang profit dgn cara saya...cuma ada dikalangan group saya sendiri
masih gagal dan dibahagikan kepada beberape kategori:-

1. Kategori yang faham marking sahaja..tapi terkena di news besar..tak suka ambil tahu
pasal FA....

2. Kategori suka entry di big news..banyak tahu pasal FA...tidak berminat terhadap TA...
3. Kategori suka bermain lot gajah..tidak menbuat perkiraan pada MM..padahal Fail MM
telah diberi...contoh equity 300usd entry lot 0.05...profit 30usd...suka2 je nak buka lot 0.1
selepas itu...lot buka sekali ganda...equity meningkat baru 10%..pun akan menuju MC...
4. Terlalu greed and fear...bagus dalam entry..tapi bila equity dah cecah ke satu level yang
tinggi...lot size makin kecil...entry yang semakin takut...
5. Depo sudah..tapi anda tak faham lagi...sbb tu equity tk berubah....tidak ada tindakan
follow up nak jumpa saya.

1. Lebih banyak masa bersama keluarga, rakan-rakan,jiran tetangga dan


urusan keagamaan.

2. Masyarakat negara Maju telah berubah corak kehidupan mereka


daripada pekerja sepenuh masa ke perniagaan atas talian atau forex
trading.

3. Persediaan usia tua, di mana ramai yang tertipu dengan pelbagai skim
cepat kaya, menbuka perniagaan baru, tapi belum pasti menjanjikan
kejayaan. Kembali merisiko kan kehidupan dengan melabur kesemua wang
pencen.

4. Bagus untuk minda. Kerana ketika usia tuan, jikalau minda kuat
berfikir..masalah lupa ingatan takkan berlaku.

*
*
*

5. Tidak memerlukan segulung ijazah


6. Tidak memerlukan modal yang besar. Serendah 10 dollar.
7. Tidak memerlukan masa yang lama untuk belajar.

* Nak buka kedai makan rm100k ...

Nak buka fracise rm500k ...


Nak buka kedai runcit 80k ...
Nak buka kedai tudung 40k ...
Blaka2 main ribu2 ... nak balik modal adala 3, 4 tahun keatas
... kalau ada
Nak buka acc FOREX modal 100usd ... ada ilmu boleh pofit
200-300% sebulan ...sambil golek2 layan anak bini kat rumah
....

Mana yg terbaik punya bisnis ... hmmmmmmmmmmmm