Desalination 237 (2009) 321

Hydrological response to meteorological drought using the

Palmer drought indices in Thessaly, Greece
Lampros Vasiliades, Athanasios Loukas*
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessaly, Pedion Areos, 38334 Volos, Greece
Tel. +30 24210 74168; Fax: +30 24210 74169; email: aloukas@civ.uth.gr
Received 18 October 2007; Accepted 2 December 2007

Abstract
This study evaluates the efficacy of Palmer drought indices to monitor hydrological droughts in river discharges
and soil moisture in selected watersheds with varying geomorphologic characteristics in region of Thessaly, Greece.
The Palmer four indices (PDSI, Weighted PDSI, PHDI and the moisture anomaly Z-index) were used as indicators
of meteorological drought severity. The hydrological drought severity was evaluated from the outputs of the monthly
UTHBAL conceptual water balance model. The UTHBAL model was calibrated with the available observed runoff
data to extend, reconstruct and produce runoff and soil moisture timeseries for the hydrologic period 19602002 at
the study catchments. The produced hydrologic variables were normalized through Box-Cox transformation and
standardized to normal distribution. The standardized hydrologic variables were used as an indicator of hydrological
drought severity and were compared with the Palmer drought indices timeseries estimated by basin-wide
meteorological data. The results showed that, in general, the Weighted PDSI and the moisture anomaly Z-index were
found to better represent river discharges and soil moisture, respectively, for all study watersheds irrespectively to
their area, geophysical, and hydroclimatic characteristics. However, the results were quite variable in the
identification of specific historical drought periods. Although, the Palmer indices were successful in the identification
of drought severity of historical events, they failed to identify the drought duration.
Keywords:

Palmer drought indices; Runoff; Soil moisture; Meteorological drought; Hydrological drought; Drought
severity; Drought duration

1. Introduction
In many Mediterranean countries environmental policy and water resources and drought
*Corresponding author.

policies have been badly structured and organized

and continue to negatively impact water resources
in most countries. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the European Union sets the general framework for water management in member

Presented at the conference on Water Resources Management: New Approaches and Technologies, 1416 June 2007,
Chania, Greece.
0011-9164/09/$ See front matter 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
doi:10.1016/j.desal.2007.12.019

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

states and requires good ecological status to be

achieved in EU waters by 2015. It promotes the
integrated management of water resources to support sustainable water use and reduce problems
associated with excessive water abstraction,
pollution, floods and droughts. For effectively
preventing droughts and increase resilience to its
impacts, it is indispensable to achieve a rational
use of water, even in rainy years. It is worth
mentioning that a better management of water
resources and demand is listed as the first among
seven priorities identified by the Mediterranean
Strategy for Sustainable Development finalized in
2005 and adopted by the 21 Mediterranean countries and the European Union in the framework of
the Barcelona Convention.
Droughts are the worlds costliest natural disasters, causing an average $6$8 billion in global
damages annually and collectively affecting more
people than any other form of natural disaster [1].
Given the consequences and pervasiveness of
drought, it is important to assess drought severity,
but precise quantification of drought is a difficult
geophysical endeavor. Several studies have been
made to assess and quantify different aspects of
droughts, such as spatial differences in drought
hazard [25], the prediction of droughts with the
use of atmospheric circulation indices [68], and
the mitigation of drought effects [9]. However,
more efforts have been made to develop drought
indices, which allow an earlier identification of
droughts, their severity and areal extent. During
the 20th century, several drought indices were
developed, based on different variables and parameters [1012]. Drought indices are very important for monitoring droughts in time and space,
and drought early warning systems are based
primarily on the information that drought indices
provide [9].
Hydrological systems respond to precipitation
changes as a function of the time scales determined by the different frequencies of hydrologic/
climatic variables [13]. Peters et al. [14] have
shown that the effects of the meteorological

droughts in groundwater are: (a) the decrease of

the of the frequency of drought events and (b) a
shift in the drought distribution. Therefore,
drought indices used must be associated to a
specific timescale to be operative for management
purposes in each of the different usable water
sources. McKee et al. [15] indicated that the time
period from the arrival of precipitation until
usable water resources (i.e. soil moisture, groundwater, snowpack, river discharges, and reservoir
storages) differs considerably. Thus, the time
scale over which precipitation deficits accumulate
becomes extremely important and functionally
separates different types of drought: meteorological, hydrological, water resources, agricultural, socioeconomic, etc. Recent studies [1618]
have used meteorological drought indices as
indicators of hydrological and water resources
variables, like soil moisture, surface runoff and
reservoir storage. Loukas and Vasiliades [16]
presented the assessment of the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) of various time scales as
indicator of surface runoff and soil moisture
drought at seven basins ranging from 133 to
6591 km2. They found that SPI of 2 to 4 month
time scales were good indicators of surface runoff
drought, whereas the SPI of 1 to 3 month time
scales represented better the soil moisture
drought. The larger time scales SPI were representative of the larger and with smaller land
slopes agricultural basins. Vicente-Serrano and
Lopez-Moreno [17] evaluated the SPI of various
time scales as indicator of runoff and reservoir
storage in a 2181 km2 mountainous basin in
Spain. They provided empirical evidence that
surface runoff respond to short SPI time scales
(14 months), whereas the reservoir storages
respond to longer time scales (710 months).
Szep and his associates [18] used the Palmer
Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as an indicator of
soil moisture at three stations in western Hungary. The analysis showed that the timeseries of
PDSI exhibited strong correlation with the timeseries of soil moisture.

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

This study analyses the use of the four Palmer

drought indices [i.e. the original Palmer Drought
Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Hydrological
Drought Index (PHDI), the Palmer Moisture
Anomaly Z-Index (Palmer Z-index) and the
Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index
(Weighted PDSI)] to monitor hydrological
droughts. The PDSI is widely used, mainly in the
United States, where the index has been applied
in countless research studies (for example, [19,
20]), as well as on operational basis [21]. There
are also successful applications of the PDSI in
Canada [22] and other parts of the world as for
example, Australia [23], Argentina [24], Hungary
[18,25] and in the Mediterranean region [26]. The
PDSI could be a useful tool for the detection of
droughts and drought severity in Greece [27,28].
Moreover, the PDSI has been used in a variety of
applications, ranging from the assessment of the
climatic change impacts on water resources [29]
to the effect of climate variability on waterfowl
populations [30] and as a geophysical and climatic indicator of potential erosion, grazing
pressure, and climatic stress in desertification
studies [31].
This paper analyses the efficacy of Palmer
drought indices to monitor droughts in river discharges and soil moisture in selected watersheds
with varying areas, geomorphological and hydrological characteristics in the region of Thessaly,
Greece. Furthermore, the monthly hydrological
drought patterns and selective identified drought
episodes are also analyzed. The study was carried
out in selected watersheds located in Thessaly
region, Greece, where there is a high complexity
of hydrological processes with a marked seasonal
and interannual variability. The objective is to
determine the most adequate Palmer drought
indices to monitor droughts in two basic water
usable sources: river discharges and soil moisture.
This is useful for forecasting and monitoring
hydrological and soil moisture drought severity
and to develop a drought preparedness plan in the
region.

2. Study areas and database

Thessaly is a plain region surrounded by high
mountains. Thessaly plain is one of the most
productive agricultural regions of Greece. The
main crops cultivated in the plain area are cotton,
wheat and maize whereas apple, apricot, cherry,
olive trees and grapes are cultivated at the foothills of the eastern mountains. Pinios River and
its tributaries traverse the plain area, and the basin
total drainage area is about 9,500 km2. The waters
of the Pinios River are used primarily for
irrigation.
Climate is continental at the western and
central side of Thessaly and Mediterranean at the
eastern side. Winters are cold and wet and summers are hot and dry with a large temperature
difference between the two seasons. Mean annual
precipitation over the Thessaly region is about
700 mm, varies from about 450 mm at the central
plain area to more than 1850 mm at the western
mountain peaks and it is distributed unevenly in
space and time. Generally, rainfall is rare from
June to August. The mountain areas receive significant amounts of snow during the winter months
and transient snowpacks develop.
Greece, and especially Thessaly, experienced
severe, extreme and persistent droughts during
the periods from the mid to late 1970s, from the
late 1980s to the early 1990s and the first years of
2000s. These three drought periods were quite
remarkable and affected large areas. The first
drought episode (19761977) affected southern
and western Europe, the second drought episode
(19881991) affected the whole Mediterranean
region with an estimated economic cost lager than
2.1 billion, whereas the third drought episode
(20002001) affected central Europe and the
Balkans with total damage of 0.5 billion [32].
During these three periods the monthly and
annual precipitation was significantly below normal in Thessaly. Especially, the hydrological
years 19761977 and 19891990 are the first and
second driest hydrological years on record for

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

Fig. 1. Location of the study watersheds and database.

Thessaly, respectively [5]. The annual precipitation for the 19761977 year was 467 mm and for
the year 19891990 was 521 mm. The driest
January and February and the second driest
March in record occurred during the hydrological
year 19891990. The prolonged and significant
decrease of monthly and annual precipitation has
a dramatic impact on water resources of the
region. Usually, the dry periods are accompanied
with high temperatures, which lead to higher
evapotranspiration rates and dry soils. These conditions inversely affect both the natural vegetation and the agriculture of the region as well as
the available storage of the reservoirs. Severe and
extremely dry conditions result in irrigation
cutbacks, overexploitation of groundwater and

significant losses of crop yields. For example,

during the dry hydrological year 19891990, the
water supply for irrigation from the N. Plastiras
reservoir, the only large reservoir in operation in
the area at that time, was cut-off by more than
70% and the irrigated areas with surface water
resources were reduced by 90% [5].
Seven small, medium and large watersheds
with areas ranging from 132 to 6591 km2 located
in the western region of Thessaly, and most of
them being tributaries of the Pinios River, have
been selected to demonstrate the efficacy of
Palmer drought indices to monitor hydrological
drought (Fig. 1). Processed monthly precipitation
data from a large network of precipitation stations
(Fig. 1) for the period October 1960 to September

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

Table 1
Characteristics of the study watersheds
Watershed

Area
(km2)

Elevation
range (m)

Mean
elevation (m)

Mean annual
precipitation (mm)

Mean annual
runoff (mm)

Runoff
coefficient

Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia

133
145
2055
2869
6591
615
1155

3001800
2002000
1802000
1502000
702000
7002300
5002300

949
838
660
555
451
1400
1288

1820
1450
985
890
720
1860
1875

1130
830
600
420
290
1150
1290

0.62
0.57
0.61
0.47
0.40
0.62
0.69

2002 were used. The monthly areal precipitation

of each watershed was estimated by the Thiessen
polygon method modified by the precipitation
gradient using the stations, which are within or in
the vicinity of the watershed. Mean monthly
basin-wide temperature was estimated using the
mean monthly temperature data from 27 meteorological stations with the method of temperature
gradient. One temperature gradient was used for
all study areas. Monthly areal potential evapotranspiration has been calculated using the
Thornthwaite method. Finally, monthly discharge
data from the seven water-gauging stations were
used for the calibration of the hydrological
model. The records of the water gauging stations
were discontinuous with large gaps. Table 1
presents the main characteristics of the study
watersheds.

standardized outputs of the monthly UTHBAL

conceptual water balance model. The use of
simulated discharges was mandatory due to the
discontinuous discharge observations. Standardized simulated river discharges and soil moisture
were compared with the Palmers drought indices
considering three approaches: (a) for the whole
timeseries, considering all the months as a continuum, (b) for each specific month and (c) for
identified historical drought episodes. For comparison the Pearson correlation coefficient was
used and the characteristics (i.e. severity and
duration) of the identified drought episodes were
evaluated and compared. In the next paragraphs
the UTHBAL model and the Palmer drought
indices are presented.

3.1. Hydrological drought assessment

3. Methodology
This study evaluates the efficiency of Palmer
meteorological drought indices to monitor hydrological droughts in river discharges and soil moisture in selected watersheds located in the region
of Thessaly, Greece. Four Palmer indices (i.e.
PDSI, Weighted PDSI, PHDI and the moisture
anomaly Palmer Z-index) were used as indicators
of meteorological drought severity. The hydrological drought severity was evaluated from the

Most of the observed discharge timeseries

were intermittent. For this reason, a lumped
conceptual water balance model was used to
reconstruct and extent the observed runoff data
and to produce soil moisture timeseries. Lumped
water balance models have been developed at
various time scales (e.g. hourly, daily, monthly
and yearly) and to varying degrees of complexity.
Monthly water balance models were first developed in the 1940s and have since been adopted,
modified, and applied to a wide spectrum of

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

hydrological problems. Recently, these hydrological models have been employed to explore the
impact of climatic change. They also have been
utilized for long-range streamflow forecasting.
Although such applications may use hourly or
daily models, these models are, however, more
data intensive and have more parameters than the
monthly models. A complete review of water
balance model applications could be found in Xu
and Singh [33].
In this study the monthly conceptual water
balance UTHBAL model [34] has been used. The
water balance model allocates the watershed
runoff into three components, the surface runoff,
the interflow runoff and the baseflow runoff
using a soil moisture mechanism with the first
priority of the balancing being the fulfillment of
actual evapotranspiration. The model separates
the total precipitation into rainfall and snowfall,
because the correct division of precipitation is
essential for accurate runoff simulation. The rainsnow percentage is estimated using a logistic
relationship based on mean monthly temperature
and the snowmelt is calculated estimated using
the simple degree-day method [35]. The
UTHBAL model requires monthly values of
mean temperature, precipitation, and potential
evapotranspiration and produces values for actual
evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater
and surface runoff. The input timeseries were
estimated using the methods presented in the
previous paragraphs. The UTHBAL model has
six parameters to be optimized in order to estimate watershed runoff. The optimization was
performed using the Generalised Reduced Gradient Algorithm and the Nash-Sutcliffe Model
Efficiency was used as the objective function.
The UTHBAL model was calibrated with the
available observed runoff data to extend, reconstruct and produce runoff and soil moisture
timeseries for the period of analysis (19602002)
and for all study watersheds. A detailed description of the UTHBAL model has been presented in
a recent paper [34].

The synthetic runoff and soil moisture timeseries were used for the estimation of hydrological drought. The synthetic runoff and soil
moisture were normalized through Box-Cox
transformation and standardized. The transformed
and standardized runoff and soil moisture timeseries were used as an indicator of hydrological
drought severity and were compared with the
Palmers drought indices timeseries estimated by
basin-wide meteorological data.
3.2. Meteorological drought assessment
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
was introduced by Palmer [36] for the assessment
of meteorological drought and it is a well-known
and widely used drought index. Although PDSI is
referred to as an index of meteorological drought,
however, the procedure considers precipitation,
evapotranspiration, and soil moisture conditions,
which are determinants of hydrological drought,
i.e. the period during which the actual water
supply is less than the minimum water supply
necessary for normal operations in a particular
region. The PDSI measures the departure of the
moisture supply from normal conditions. Moisture supply is calculated from the water balance
of a two-layer soil model using monthly mean
precipitation and temperature data as well as the
local available soil water content. From the input
data, all the basic water balance terms, namely
evapotranspiration, soil recharge, runoff, and
moisture loss from the surface layer are
estimated.
The PDSI varies roughly between !6 (drought
periods) and +6 (wet periods) with the zero value
indicating the normal conditions. The PDSI is
standardized for different regions and time periods to facilitate direct comparisons of the PDSI
between different regions [37]. The Palmer
method used for calculating the PDSI has a
number of limitations and deficiencies [38]. The
limitations of the method can be classified into
two categories: the water balance model defi-

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

ciencies and the PDSI characteristics [27].

Despite several assumptions used in the water
balance calculations, other limitations and deficiencies, and the empirical nature of some of the
standardized coefficients, the PDSI can be a useful tool for both research and operational drought
assessment [11,39]. In this study, the Palmer
indices were reclassified in order to be comparable with the runoff and soil moisture Zindices.
In the present study four Palmer indices were
included in the analysis. These are: (1) the Palmer
Drought Severity Index (PDSI); (2) the Palmer
Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), a hydrological drought index used to assess long-term
moisture supply; (3) the Palmer Moisture Anomaly Z-Index (Palmer Z-index), a measure of the
departure from normal of the moisture climate for
that month. This index can respond to a month of
above-normal precipitation, even during periods
of drought and (4) the Modified Palmer Drought
Severity Index (Weighted PDSI). The modification was made by the National Weather Service
Climate Analysis Center for operational meteorological purposes [40]. The PDSI calculates three
intermediate parallel index values each month.
Only one value is selected as the PDSI drought
index for the month. This selection is made on the
basis of probabilities. If the probability that a
drought is over is 100%, then one index value is
used. If the probability that a wet spell is over is
100%, then another index value is used. If the
probability is between 0% and 100%, the third
index is assigned to the PDSI. The modification
incorporates a weighted average of the wet and
dry index terms, using the probability as the
weighting factor. The Weighted PDSI and PDSI
will have the same value during an established
drought or wet spell (i.e., when the probability is
100%), but they will have different values during
transition periods, with the Weighted PDSI
having a more gradual transition from one spell to
the next. A detailed calculation procedure of the
original Palmer indices (i.e. PDSI, PHDI and

Palmer Z-index) could be found in the original

paper [36] and elsewhere [27,41,42]. The calculation procedure for the Weighted PDSI could by
found in the paper in which the index has been
originally proposed [40]. The PDSI has been
introduced for the assessment of meteorological
drought, the PHDI is used for the evaluation of
hydrological drought [36], and the Palmer Zindex has been used for the identification of
agricultural drought [19].

4. Application Results
The UTHBAL model was calibrated with the
available observed runoff data to extend, reconstruct and produce runoff and soil moisture
timeseries for the period of analysis 19602002
for all study watersheds. The simulated and
observed hydrographs compared graphically and
statistically. Three statistical indices were used to
assess the accuracy and performance of the simulation method, namely, the model efficiency [43]:
n

Eff 1

Qobs Qsim
i 1
n

Qobs Qobs
i 1

(1)

where Qobsi is the observed flow on month i,

Qsimi is the simulated flow on month i, Qobs is
the average observed flow and n is the number of
months for the simulation period; the percent
runoff volume error is

% DV

Vsim Vobs
100
Vobs

(2)

where Vobs is the observed runoff volume, and

Vsim is the simulated runoff volume for the
simulation period; the correlation coefficient (R)
is between the simulated and observed flows.

10

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

Table 2
Calibration statistics of the UTHBAL model with the available observed runoff data
Watershed

Eff

DV (%)

Calibration period

Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia

0.72
0.72
0.80
0.78
0.76
0.71
0.72

0.96
!0.80
!1.98
!1.28
0.39
!0.75
!0.99

0.85
0.85
0.90
0.89
0.87
0.84
0.85

Oct 60Sep 94
Oct 60Sep 85, Oct 87Sep 94
Oct 60Sep 71
Oct 60Dec 69, Feb 72Jun 94
Oct 60Feb 67, Jan 69Mar 91
Oct 60Sep 94
Oct 60Sep 94

The model efficiency (Eff) is widely used in

hydrological simulation studies. It compares the
scale and the shape of the simulated and the
observed hydrographs and its optimal value is 1.
The percent runoff volume (%DV) is a scale parameter and measures the percent error in volume
under the observed and the simulated hydrographs for the period of simulation. Positive
values of %DV indicate overestimation of the
observed runoff volume, negative values of %DV
indicate underestimation of the observed runoff
volume, and %DV equal to zero indicate perfect
agreement between simulated and observed runoff volumes. The correlation coefficient (R) is a
shape statistical parameter that measures the
linear correlation between the observed and simulated flows with optimal value of 1.
The calibration results are shown in Table 2.
The calibration was performed for the whole
period of available data in each study watershed
since previous applications of the UTHBAL
model to watersheds in Thessaly [34] and in other
watersheds [44,45] were quite successful. The
graphical and the statistical comparison of the
simulated hydrographs with the observed hydrographs (Fig. 2 and Table 2) show that, in general,
the UTHBAL model estimates satisfactorily the
shape and scale of the observed hydrograph and
could be used to extent and reconstruct the runoff
data. The synthetic runoff and soil moisture
timeseries were used for the estimation of

hydrological drought. The synthetic runoff and

soil moisture were normalized, using the BoxCox transformation, and standardized. The BoxCox transformation takes the form:

X 1
, 0

Y
ln X , 0

(3)

and the transformed values were standardized

using:

Y Y
Y

(4)

where X are the values of the original timeseries

of either surface runoff or soil moisture, Y are the
values of the transformed timeseries, is a parameter for which the values of the transformed
timeseries (Y) are normally distributed, Z are the
values of the standardized timeseries, Y
is the
mean value of the transformed timeseries and Y
is the standard deviation of the transformed timeseries. The transformation and the standardization
has been performed on monthly basis, meaning
that the monthly values have been analyzed
individually and separately for each month of the
year. The transformed and standardized runoff

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

11

(a)

(b)

Fig. 2. Comparison of observed and simulated hydrographs for (a) Mesohora watershed and (b) Larissa watershed.

and soil moisture timeseries were used as

indicators of hydrological drought severity.
Timeseries of monthly areal precipitation and
temperature were used for the calculation of
Palmers indices. These timeseries were estimated
using the methods presented in the previous
paragraphs. The estimation of the available water

capacity was taken from the calibrated UTHBAL

model for all study watersheds. Finally, because
the Palmer indices have been criticized for their
arbitrary classes [38] and their spatial comparability [37], all Palmer indices have been standardized to the normal distribution in order to be
comparable with the hydrological drought indices

12

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

(i.e. standardized river discharges and soil moisture). Hence, the strength of the anomaly for all
calculated drought indices is classified as set out
in Table 3. This table also contains the corresponding probabilities of occurrence of each
severity arising naturally from the normal probability density function. Thus, at a given location
for an individual month, moderate dry and drier
periods (index value #!1) have an occurrence
Table 3
Drought classification by standardized hydrological
variables and Palmer drought indices with corresponding
event probabilities
Drought Index
value

Category

Probability
(%)

2.00 or more
1.50 to 1.99
1.00 to 1.49
!0.99 to 0.99
!1.49 to !1.00
!1.99 to !1.50
!2 or less

Extremely wet
Severely wet
Moderately wet
Near normal
Moderately dry
Severely dry
Extremely dry

2.3
4.4
9.2
68.2
9.2
4.4
2.3

probability of 15.9%, whereas extreme dry periods (index value #!2) have an event probability
of 2.3%. Extreme values in all calculated indices
will, by definition, occur with the same frequency
at all locations.
Table 4 shows the Pearson correlation coefficients between the continuous standardized series
of river discharges, soil moisture and the four
Palmer indices. For river discharges and soil
moisture, correlations are positive, but there are
important differences with regard to examined
meteorological drought indices. Considering river
discharges, higher correlations have been obtained with the Weighted PDSI (average R = 0.80
for all watersheds, ranging from R = 0.78 to 0.82)
followed by the PDSI (Table 4) for all study
watersheds. Considering soil moisture, higher
correlations have been obtained with the moisture
anomaly Palmer Z-index (average R = 0.87 for all
watersheds, ranging from R = 0.85 to 0.89).
Graphical examination of temporal evolution
and scattergraphs confirms that the Weighted
PDSI and the Palmer Z-index conform better to

Table 4
Correlation between continuous meteorological drought indices and the standardized hydrological variables
Watershed
River discharge (Runoff Z-index):
Mouzaki
Pili
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia
Soil moisture (Soil moisture Z-index):
Mouzaki
Pili
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia

Palmer Z-index

PDSI

Weighted PDSI

PHDI

0.69
0.70
0.74
0.74
0.69
0.72
0.74

0.73
0.77
0.77
0.79
0.78
0.77
0.77

0.78
0.81
0.80
0.82
0.81
0.81
0.80

0.69
0.71
0.69
0.72
0.72
0.71
0.71

0.86
0.85
0.89
0.89
0.88
0.86
0.87

0.74
0.73
0.72
0.75
0.77
0.73
0.74

0.75
0.75
0.74
0.76
0.77
0.75
0.74

0.63
0.62
0.61
0.65
0.67
0.63
0.63

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

13

Fig. 3. Scattergraphs of Palmer drought indices with river discharges (Runoff Z-index) for Larissa watershed.

the variation of runoff Z-index (Fig. 3) and soil

mois-ture Z index (Fig. 4), respectively for all
study watersheds.
The monthly patterns follow the results of the
continuous correlation analysis. Table 5 presents
the monthly correlation coefficients for Larissa
watershed. Similar results have been observed
and in the other study watersheds. Again the
Weigthed PDSI and the Palmer Z-index are the
best indices for assessing river discharges and soil
moisture, respectively. High correlations (R>0.8)
are found for autumn and early winter months.
The highest correlations were obtained in Decem-

ber and January. Contrarily, the worst correlations were obtained for spring and summer
months.
This noticeable seasonality in the strength of
correlations is, probably, the result of the hydrological behavior of the study watersheds. A
possible reason could be the seasonal variability
of precipitation and the accumulation of snow and
its consequent melting. The snow accumulation
and the snowmelt are not accounted in the
calculation of the Palmer indices but they are
taken into consideration in the simulation of
runoff. These processes cause redistribution of

14

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

Fig. 4. Scattergraphs of Palmer drought indices with soil moisture (Soil moisture Z-index) for Larissa watershed.
Table 5
Monthly correlations between Palmer meteorological drought indices and the standardized hydrological variables for
Larissa watershed
Palmer Index

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

River discharge (Runoff Z-index):

Palmer Z-index
0.78 0.78

0.88

0.88

0.85

0.82

0.64

0.40

0.58

0.62

0.57

0.52

PDSI

0.85

0.86

0.90

0.91

0.81

0.76

0.71

0.67

0.76

0.72

0.72

0.73

Weighted PDSI

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.91

0.81

0.81

0.72

0.67

0.81

0.82

0.80

0.76

PHDI

0.83

0.82

0.83

0.83

0.75

0.72

0.64

0.60

0.72

0.63

0.68

0.68

Soil moisture (Soil moisture Z-index):

Palmer Z-index

0.92

0.88

0.94

0.96

0.95

0.94

0.89

0.84

0.87

0.88

0.84

0.78

PDSI

0.88

0.88

0.89

0.84

0.74

0.68

0.67

0.73

0.75

0.72

0.77

0.70

Weighted PDSI

0.88

0.88

0.88

0.83

0.69

0.70

0.66

0.77

0.81

0.77

0.75

0.72

PHDI

0.81

0.80

0.80

0.75

0.63

0.60

0.55

0.66

0.65

0.58

0.62

0.60

runoff, especially, during spring months. During

late fall and early winter, rainfall and wet conditions dominate the watersheds and the corre-

lation between the Palmer indices and the runoff

and soil moisture Z-indices is high. At the end of
winter and early spring a large percentage of

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

15

(a)

(b)

Fig. 5. Identification of major hydrological drought episodes for Larissa watershed (a) river discharges and (b) soil
moisture.

precipitation is in the form of snow which,

mainly, accumulates and does not participate in
the generation of river runoff. At this period the
correlations start to decrease. During the late
spring and early summer, large amounts of river
runoff is generated by the melting of the accumulated snow and wet conditions prevail, especially
in mountainous watersheds. The precipitation,
however, during this period is quite low. As a
result the correlations, during this period, are

quite low. Finally, at the end of summer and early

fall, the reserve of water in the watersheds is
usually exhausted and the precipitation is usually
low. The values of the correlation coefficient
between the Palmer indices and the runoff and
soil moisture Z-index start to increase, again.
Similar results have been found in a recent study
[17] using the Standardized Precipitation Index in
the evaluation of runoff drought.

16

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

Table 6
Correlation between meteorological drought indices and the standardized hydrological variables for the three identified
drought episodes:( a) Oct 1976Sep 1978, (b) Oct 1987Sep 1990, and (c) Oct 2000Sep 2002
Watershed

Palmer Z-index
a

PDSI
c

River discharge (Runoff Z-index):

Mouzaki
0.55
0.64
0.74
Pili
0.65
0.64
0.71
Mesdani
0.72
0.53
0.72
Ali Efenti
0.69
0.54
0.72
Larissa
0.65
0.45
0.73
Mesohora
0.67
0.58
0.70
Sykia
0.68
0.67
0.78
Soil moisture (Soil moisture Z-index):
Mouzaki
0.75
0.79
0.87
Pili
0.85
0.78
0.88
Mesdani
0.83
0.83
0.86
Ali Efenti
0.84
0.83
0.87
Larissa
0.83
0.76
0.92
Mesohora
0.81
0.78
0.81
Sykia
0.84
0.83
0.91

Weighted PDSI

PHDI

0.73
0.88
0.49
0.50
0.60
0.86
0.87

0.56
0.58
0.64
0.73
0.76
0.73
0.77

0.81
0.79
0.93
0.89
0.82
0.92
0.80

0.79
0.87
0.58
0.57
0.65
0.90
0.89

0.66
0.70
0.80
0.74
0.75
0.70
0.75

0.72
0.73
0.88
0.82
0.91
0.86
0.80

0.70
0.73
0.41
0.41
0.55
0.82
0.83

0.57
0.53
0.67
0.65
0.68
0.59
0.65

0.67
0.66
0.77
0.71
0.88
0.76
0.75

0.76
0.89
0.48
0.48
0.64
0.83
0.82

0.49
0.53
0.68
0.74
0.80
0.75
0.74

0.79
0.78
0.91
0.87
0.86
0.91
0.74

0.83
0.87
0.57
0.55
0.69
0.86
0.85

0.60
0.67
0.76
0.74
0.77
0.67
0.70

0.73
0.74
0.88
0.80
0.91
0.86
0.79

0.67
0.72
0.38
0.37
0.53
0.76
0.77

0.49
0.49
0.60
0.59
0.65
0.53
0.57

0.66
0.69
0.76
0.67
0.82
0.79
0.72

The temporal evolution of the standardized

hydrological variables with the best Palmer index
identified in the previous analyses (Fig. 5) has
shown that significant hydrological drought episodes have been established in the hydrological
years Oct 1976Sep 1978, Oct 1987Sep 1990
and Oct 2000Sep 2002 for all study watersheds.
Fig. 6 presents the graphical comparison of
Palmer indices timeseries for these identified
historical drought episodes for Larissa watershed.
Also, Table 6 presents the correlation coefficient
values between the runoff Z-index and the soil
moisture Z-index and the Palmer indices. A
general observation is that the values of the
correlation coefficients are larger than the values
of the correlation coefficients for the respective
Palmer indices. Also, the PHDI exhibits the
lowest correlation for all drought periods and
study watersheds. However, the results for these
historical drought periods are quite variable. In
most cases, the Weighted PDSI and the PDSI

show the higher correlations with the runoff Zindex, and the Palmer Z-index and the PDSI are
better correlated with the soil moisture Z-index.
Nevertheless, there are a few cases for which
other Palmer indices have similar correlation or
they are even better correlated with the hydrological Z-indices. Furthermore, this variation of
the results is not consistent either for the same
event or for the same watershed. This indicates
that identification of the evolution of runoff and
soil moisture drought by the Palmer indices is
affected by the meteorological/hydrological
conditions during the event and the characteristics
of the watershed.
Identification of the drought onset and termination can be based on the value that the variable
under analysis takes in a single interval without
memory of the past, e.g. run analysis [46] or by
taking explicitly into account the memory of the
past intervals [36]. For these historical drought
episodes the threshold drought value is defined

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

17

Fig. 6. Response of Palmer drought indices with standardized hydrological variables for identified drought episodes in
Larissa watershed.

18

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

Table 7
Average drought severity of the identified hydrological drought periods
Watershed
Period Oct 1976Sep 1978:
Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia
Period Oct 1988Sep 1990:
Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia
Period Oct 2000Sep 2002
Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia

Runoff
Z-index

Soil moisture
Z-index

Palmer
Z-index

PDSI

Weighted
PDSI

PHDI

!1.61
!1.67
!1.82
!1.86
!1.79
!1.76
!1.70

!1.59
!1.79
!1.79
!1.81
!1.77
!1.81
!1.66

!1.55
!1.52
!1.41
!1.37
!1.37
!1.36
!1.60

!1.81
!1.43
!1.60
!1.53
!1.65
!1.51
!1.59

!1.79
!1.48
!1.63
!1.62
!1.64
!1.52
!1.67

!1.56
!1.40
!1.55
!1.51
!1.62
!1.45
!1.52

!1.75
!1.99
!1.67
!1.57
!1.65
!1.76
!1.71

!1.68
!1.97
!1.69
!1.66
!1.85
!1.72
!1.62

!1.31
!1.50
!1.40
!1.41
!1.48
!1.48
!1.47

!1.42
!1.68
!1.56
!1.62
!1.53
!1.51
!1.40

!1.47
!1.74
!1.57
!1.71
!1.55
!1.56
!1.47

!1.35
!1.64
!1.52
!1.57
!1.51
!1.50
!1.34

!1.20
!1.49
!1.29
!1.46
!1.34
!1.12
!1.41

!1.29
!1.35
!1.26
!1.38
!1.39
!1.08
!1.12

!1.43
!1.30
!1.45
!1.29
!1.44
!1.24
!1.20

!1.47
!1.44
!1.55
!1.29
!1.42
!1.24
!1.28

!1.41
!1.45
!1.58
!1.34
!1.48
!1.27
!1.33

!1.39
!1.41
!1.47
!1.26
!1.38
!1.26
!1.26

when drought index value #!1. Using the run

analysis method and the Runoff Z-index as the
drought index for assessing severity the first (Oct
1976Sep 1978) and the second (Oct 1987Sep
1990) drought episodes are characterized as
severe whereas the third episode (Oct 2000Sep
2002) is moderate for all study watersheds
(Table 7). Similar observations are made when
the soil moisture Z-index is used for drought
assessment. Slightly different patterns are observed with the use of four Palmer indices. The
moisture anomaly Palmer Z-index characterizes
the first episode as severe in Pili, Mouzaki and
Sykia watersheds and moderate in the other four
(Mesdani, Ali Efenti, Larissa and Mesohora)

watersheds. The second and the third identified

events are depicted as moderate drought episodes
in all study catchments. The use of PDSI,
Weighted PDSI and PHDI characterize the first
episode in all watersheds as severe except for
Mouzaki watershed (moderate) the second event
is characterized as moderate in Pili and Sykia and
severe in the remaining watersheds, whereas the
third episode is characterized as moderate for all
watersheds, except for Mesdani watershed where
the drought episode is characterized as severe for
PDSI and Weighted PDSI).
The duration of the identified drought episodes are quite different in the study catchments.
In general, short drought durations are estimated

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

19

Table 8
Drought duration (in months) of the identified hydrological drought periods
Watershed
Period Oct 1976Sep 1978:
Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia
Period Oct 1988Sep 1990:
Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia
Period Oct 2000Sep 2002:
Pili
Mouzaki
Mesdani
Ali Efenti
Larissa
Mesohora
Sykia

Runoff
Z-index

Soil moisture
Z-index

Palmer
Z-index

PDSI

Weighted
PDSI

PHDI

10
9
10
10
13
8
7

10
8
10
10
12
6
7

5
5
8
8
9
6
4

10
17
18
18
19
11
10

11
14
16
15
19
10
9

13
16
18
18
19
11
10

9
13
13
14
14
9
10

9
13
12
13
13
9
10

6
8
8
9
9
7
5

20
23
17
25
18
12
15

18
21
20
23
19
13
13

20
22
20
27
20
19
15

6
5
7
8
9
3
3

5
7
5
6
7
2
4

3
4
6
7
7
2
3

7
7
16
10
16
11
8

11
9
18
12
16
10
9

9
9
20
13
20
10
9

in the mountainous watersheds (Pili, Mouzaki,

Sykia and Mesohora). Larger drought durations
are estimated in Mesdani, Ali Efenti and Larissa
which are mainly agricultural watersheds. These
observations stand for all drought indices
(Table 8). When using standardized river discharges (Runoff Z-index) in analyzing the
drought episodes, the first, second and third
episodes have an average duration of 9.6, 11.7
and 5.9 months, respectively. Similar durations
are observed and for soil moisture (average duration 9.0, 11.3, and 5.1 months). Intercomparison
of Palmer indices shows that the average drought
duration is shorter for the Palmer moisture
anomaly Z-index with average duration is 6.4, 7.4

and 4.6 months for the first, second and third

episodes. Larger drought durations are estimated
with the other three Palmer indices which shows
comparable durations with average durations of
14.4, 19.0 and 11.9 months for the first, second
and third episodes, respectively (Table 8).
5. Conclusions
This study analyzes the efficacy of the four
Palmer drought indices to monitor droughts in
river discharges and soil moisture. The study was
carried out in selected small, medium and large
watersheds with varying geomorphologic characteristics located in the Thessaly region of Greece

20

L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas / Desalination 237 (2009) 321

where there is a high complexity of hydrological

processes with a marked seasonal and interannual
variability. The hydrological drought severity in
river discharges and soil moisture was evaluated
from the outputs of the monthly UTHBAL conceptual water balance model. The results showed
that the Weighted PDSI and the moisture anomaly Z-index were found to better represent river
discharges and soil moisture respectively, for all
study watersheds irrespectively to their area,
geophysical, and hydroclimatic characteristics.
However, the response of Palmers drought
indices to the identified historical drought episodes was quite variable. The assessment of
hydrological drought severity was quite successful with the application of Palmers drought
indices. However, different results were obtained
in the evaluation of hydrological drought duration
whereas the Palmer drought indices fail to represent satisfactorily drought episode duration. The
above findings could be useful for forecasting
and monitoring hydrological and soil moisture
drought severity and in developing a drought
preparedness plan in the region. To address this
difficult task, the inclusion of other drought
indices such as the SPI could help, complement
and verify the outcomes of this study.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the two
anonymous reviewers and the guest editor for
their helpful comments, which improved the
quality of the final manuscript.

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