13 October 2014
OECD/IEA 2014
Rich in resources
Gas
OilGas
Oil
Hydro
Fossil fuels
Oil
Wind
Oil
Gas
Oil
Solar
Coal
In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa;
the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydro & solar
OECD/IEA 2014
Coal
Additional
demand in 2040
Modern renewables
Gas
Nuclear
100
200
Mtoe
300
400
500
Mtoe
Nuclear, 2%
Hydro
22%
Bioenergy, wind
geothermal
8%
Coal
22%
Solar
12%
Coal
45%
Oil, 17%
Hydro
24%
Gas
25%
Gas, 14%
Oil
7%
Nuclear
2%
Renewables account for almost half the growth in overall power supply
& for two-thirds of the mini-grid and off-grid systems installed in rural areas
OECD/IEA 2014
500
300
200
300
200
150
100
100
50
150
2020
2000
2040
Central
120
90
1 000
2020
2040
Southern
800
600
60
Other
renewables
Solar PV
Hydro
30
2000
East
250
400
2000
TWh
West
TWh
600
TWh
TWh
2020
2040
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
400
200
2000
2020
2040
European
Union
China
India
Middle
East
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is on the front line to feel the effects of a changing climate but,
even with an extra 25 Gt to 2040, accounts for only a marginal share of emissions
OECD/IEA 2014
Production:
Other
Angola
Nigeria
4
3
2
1
2000
2013
2020
2030
2040
The region remains a major global supplier, although regulatory uncertainty, unrest
& oil theft in Nigeria make Angola the main producer of crude oil until the 2020s
OECD/IEA 2014
Sub-Saharan Africa
Mozambique
Nigeria
Other
Tanzania
Russia
Australia
North Africa
50
100
150
200
250
bcm
LNG export is the anchor for the east coast gas discoveries , but half of the overall
increase in gas output goes to domestic power generation & industry
OECD/IEA 2014
180
150
Coal
Natural gas
120
Crude oil
90
60
30
2013
2040
2005
2013
2040
Export destinations for all fossil fuels switch towards Asia-Pacific markets: gas & coal
volumes rise, but oil exports tail off as more crude is refined within the region
OECD/IEA 2014
60
40
20
2000-2013
2014-2035
Population with
electricity access
1 200
Population without
electricity access
900
600
300
2012
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Nearly 1 billion people gain access to electricity, but this still leaves 530 million,
primarily in rural communities, without power in 2040
OECD/IEA 2014
OECD/IEA 2014
4
3
700
Million people
600
500
400
300
2
1
GDP per capita
210
180
150
120
African Century
Case
90
200
60
100
30
Without access
to electricity
Main Scenario
Government revenues
from oil & gas production
By increasing the coverage & reliability of energy supply, the African Century Case
unlocks an extra decades worth of growth in per-capita incomes by 2040
OECD/IEA 2014
Conclusions
Energy is a cornerstone of sub-Saharan strategies for poverty