!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Two!financial!scenarios!are!attached.!The!first!is!a!conservative!baseline!model.!The!second!is!a!stressed!model!
illustrating!one!possible!outcome!under!a!confluence!of!multiple!worst!case!outcomes.!This!second!model!is!
by!no!means!exhaustive,!but!it!does!address!a!number!of!potential!stressors.!!
!
On!the!capital!budget:!
!Reduced!yield!from!NMTC!allocation!
!Reduced!available!tenant!capital!
!Increased!loan!fees!
!Increased!financial!management!and!accounting!fees!
!
On!the!operating!budget:!
!Reduced!net!rent!per!square!foot!
!Increased!bridge!loan!term!for!charitable!pledges!
!Increased!debt!service!
!The!failure!of!one!tenant!and!corresponding!two!year!period!to!reElease!the!space!!!
!
Notes:!
NMI!has!structured!project!financing!so!that!it!does!not!rely!upon!financial!guarantees!or!credit!enhancement!
provided!by!the!City!of!Burlington.!
!
Under!New!Moran,!Inc.s!11/17/14!proposal,!City!of!Burlington!funds!($1,487,542)!spent!on!the!Moran!Center!
were!not!reimbursed.!In!the!current!development!budget!dated!6/22/2015,!these!funds!are!also!not!
reimbursed.!As!discussed,!this!is!consistent!with!the!Citys!May,!2014!request!to!reEconfigure!the!projected!
development!budget!in!order!to!meet!HUD!guidelines.!
!!
4)#Vermeulens#Cost#Estimate!
Vermeulens,!a!costEestimating!firm!previously!engaged!by!the!City!of!Burlington!on!the!Moran!Center!project,!
was!retained!to!complete!a!detailed!cost!estimates!based!on!this!schematic!design!phase!(and!moving!forward!
through!Design!Development!and!Construction!Drawings).!
!
Since!their!inception!in!1972!and!in!partnership!since!1961,!Vermeulens!has!been!a!leader!and!an!innovator!in!
their!specialty!of!preEconstruction!cost!control.!Vermeulens!developed!the!elemental!estimating!systems,!line!
item!estimate!computer!reports,!and!computer!graphic!take!off!processes!that!have!become!standard!
throughout!the!industry.!They!have!completed!major!projects,!at!and!above!this!scale,!in!Vermont!and!around!
the!world.!!
!
5)#Updated#Project#Schedule:####!!
Detailed!project!GANTT!chart,!specifically!outlining!NMIs!design!development!and!project!financing!timelines.!
See!below.!
!!
6)#Market#Study!
A!market!study!completed!by!New!Moran!Inc!(NMI)!to!analyze!the!local!commercial!real!estate!market,!
determine!the!feasibility!of!proposed!rental!rates,!and!review!projected!operating!expenses!against!existing!
comparable!real!estate.!
##
Note:!
We!have!engaged!Desman!Associates!(the!same!firm!responsible!for!the!City!of!Burlingtons!Parking!Master!
Plan)!as!proEbono!consultant!to!generate!an!empirical!report!on!required!parking!for!the!building!program!as!
projected,!as!well!as!a!"white!paper"!outline!of!the!steps!and!associated!costs!to!achieve!a!greater!waterfront!/!
event!parking!plan!with!the!city.!
1. Project Description!
!!
Once!a!coalEfired!power!plant,!the!Moran!Plant!will!become!an!energyEnet!zero,!financially!selfE
sustaining!public!space!on!the!Burlington!waterfront.!This!space!will!be!managed!yearEround!by!New!
Moran,!Inc.,!a!Vermont!nonEprofit!organization.!
!!
The#Moran#Plant#will!be!home!to!three!building!blocks!of!activity:!
!!
1)!The#Market#Hall,!a!ground!level!marketplace!showcasing!Vermont!through!local!food,!drink,!arts,!
and!recreation.!Like!Chelsea!Market!in!NYC,!the!Ferry!Building!in!San!Francisco,!and!Atwater!Public!
Market!in!Montreal,!the!Moran!Plant!Market!Hall!will!be!home!to!a!variety!of!vendors,!small!and!
large.!Restaurants,!artisans,!artists,!retail!shops!and!education!spaces!will!fuse!commerce!and!
community!to!create!a!dynamic!public!space!rooted!in!the!place!and!heritage!of!our!city!and!state.!
!!
2)!The#Turbine#Hall,#a#1500!person!capacity,!flat!floor!community!event!space!with!an!industrial!
interior!and!lake!and!mountain!views,!hosting!a!regular!program!for!music,!conferences,!educational!
activities,!community!events!such!as!the!Winter!Farmers!Market,!private!functions,!and!largeEscale!
art!installation.!
!!
3)!Innovation#Space,!a!collaborative!workspace!dedicated!to!cultural!entrepreneurship,!education,!
and!fostering!connections!between!nonEprofit!organizations!and!socialEprofit!businesses.!!Located!
within!the!new!architecture!enclosing!the!steel!works!on!the!north!side!of!the!building,!the!space!will!
have!strong!coffee,!soaring!ceilings,!access!to!the!historic!Bunker!Gallery!and!Conveyor!Hall,!and!
unparalleled!western!lake!views.!
!!
The!building!will!remain!cityEowned.!New!Moran,!Inc.!will!be!the!nonEprofit!developer!through!
construction,!shifting!into!the!master!lessee!and!nonEprofit!manager!at!grand!opening.!
!!
As!the!master!operator!of!the!building,!NMI!will!lease!these!three!spaces!to!three!subEentities.!NMI!
will!coordinate!and!collaborate!with!these!entities,!the!Market!Hall,!the!Community!Event!Center,!
and!Innovation!Works,!to!consistently!welcome!the!public!and!maintain!the!building,!creating!a!sense!
of!place!and!cultural!identity!deeply!informed!by!the!history!of!the!Moran!Plant!and!the!surrounding!
waterfront.!
!!
Further!examples!of!New!Morans!activities!include!programming!a!living!museum!and!observation!
level!in!the!Conveyor!Hall!at!the!top!floor!of!the!building,!infusing!the!entire!building!and!site!with!art!
from!local!and!national!artists,!and!partnering!with!existing!and!future!organizations,!such!as!the!
Flynn!Center!or!the!Brewers!Festival,!to!hold!community!events!throughout!the!building.!
!!
!
R3 Exterior
R3 Section Cut
3. Project Budgets
Development and operating budgets are proprietary. Hard cost estimates are
included below. Additional information provided:
Total Project Cost: $33.7M
$33.7M includes $1,980,000 in cash reserves at opening and project
contingency exceeding 16.5% of all development costs.
!
4.Vermuelens Cost Estimate
Main Building
Site Work
Enabling
Total
Area (sf)
67,833
$/sf
314
67,833
378
$,000s
21,269
3,562
798
25,629
This estimate includes all direct construction costs, general contractors overhead and profit, design and construction contingencies. Cost escalation assumes a Q3, 2016 construction start.
Excluded from the estimate are: hazardous waste removal, loose furnishings and equipment, utility consumption during construction, project contingency, architects and engineers fees, moving,
administrative and financing costs.
Bidding conditions are expected to reflect one construction manager, open bidding for sub-contractors, open specifications for materials and manufacturers.
This estimate is based on bids received in this market for comparable work. Projected changes in design and inflation are covered by contingency. Variances from these projections can occur due to
lack or surplus of bidders at time of bid, proprietary specifications, contractual and procurement practice, documentation and tendering changes, contractor's errors and omissions etc. We expect
bids received to be within 5 - 10% of estimated values 19 times out of 20 recognizing the above.
If you have any questions or require further analysis please do not hesitate to contact us.
Yours very truly,
15052 Version 05
Schematic Design
Moran Plant
Renovation and Addition
$/sf
67,833 sf
Element $ %
4.18
283,254
01 Main Building
02 Sitework
03 Enabling
$/sf
67,833
1%
4.18
283,254
$/sf
$/sf
A2 STRUCTURE
47.27
3,206,794 13%
47.27
3,206,794
A3 ENCLOSURE
53.83
3,651,353 14%
53.83
3,651,353
15.65
1,061,486
4%
15.65
1,061,486
B2 FINISHES
14.17
960,873
4%
14.17
960,873
9.90
671,573
3%
9.90
671,573
63.43
4,302,941 17%
63.43
4,302,941
C2 ELECTRICAL
36.63
2,484,409 10%
36.63
2,484,409
D1 SITE WORK
41.19
2,793,759 11%
0.00
2,793,759
0.00
626,060
245.05 16,622,682
2,793,759
D2 ANCILLARY WORK
9.23
626,060
2%
295.47
Z1 GENERAL REQUIREMENTS
35.08
2,379,888
9%
29.29
1,986,609
321,282
71,997
Z2 CONTINGENCIES
47.27
3,206,800 13%
39.21
2,659,629
447,001
100,170
0.00
313.55 21,268,920
3,562,043
798,227
Z3 OTHER COSTS
0.00
377.83
20,042,501 78%
0%
25,629,190 100%
626,060
E.1
15052 Version 05
Schematic Design
ELEMENTAL SUMMARY
GROSS FLOOR AREA
Level 3 Element $
$/sf
Moran Plant
Renovation and Addition
01 Main Building
67,833
$/sf
03 Enabling
0
$/sf
A1 SUBSTRUCTURE
A11 Foundations
A12 Building Excavation
52,054
231,200
0.77
3.41
0.77
3.41
52,054
231,200
0
0
0
0
930,858
1,976,071
299,866
13.72
29.13
4.42
13.72
29.13
4.42
930,858
1,976,071
299,866
0
0
0
0
0
0
193,560
1,118,770
1,581,470
605,478
152,075
2.85
16.49
23.31
8.93
2.24
2.85
16.49
23.31
8.93
2.24
193,560
1,118,770
1,581,470
605,478
152,075
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
847,186
214,300
12.49
3.16
12.49
3.16
847,186
214,300
0
0
0
0
185,223
696,654
78,996
2.73
10.27
1.16
2.73
10.27
1.16
185,223
696,654
78,996
0
0
0
0
0
0
239,073
2,500
430,000
3.52
0.04
6.34
3.52
0.04
6.34
239,073
2,500
430,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
583,588
317,199
3,074,904
327,250
8.60
4.68
45.33
4.82
8.60
4.68
45.33
4.82
583,588
317,199
3,074,904
327,250
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
836,839
972,529
675,042
12.34
14.34
9.95
12.34
14.34
9.95
836,839
972,529
675,042
0
0
0
0
0
0
A2 STRUCTURE
A21 Lowest Floor Structure
A22 Upper Floor Structure
A23 Roof Structure
A3 ENCLOSURE
A31 Walls Below Grade
A32 Walls Above Grade
A33 Windows & Entrances
A34 Roof Covering
A35 Projections
B2 FINISHES
B21 Floor Finishes
B22 Ceiling Finishes
B23 Wall Finishes
C1 MECHANICAL
C11 Plumbing & Drainage
C12 Fire Protection
C13 HVAC
C14 Controls
C2 ELECTRICAL
C21 Service & Distribution
C22 Lighting & Devices
C23 Systems
E.2
15052 Version 05
Schematic Design
ELEMENTAL SUMMARY
GROSS FLOOR AREA
Level 3 Element $
$/sf
Moran Plant
Renovation and Addition
01 Main Building
67,833
$/sf
03 Enabling
0
$/sf
D1 SITE WORK
D11 Site Development
D12 Mechanical Site Services
D13 Electrical Site Services
2,232,477
324,050
237,233
32.91
4.78
3.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
2,232,477
324,050
237,233
0
0
0
276,060
350,000
4.07
5.16
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
276,060
350,000
245.05 16,622,682
2,793,759
626,060
D2 ANCILLARY WORK
D21 Demolition
D22 Alterations
9.4% 1,878,825
2.5%
501,063
27.70
7.39
23.16
6.13
1,571,041
415,567
251,438
69,844
56,345
15,652
8.0% 1,603,400
5.0% 1,002,125
3.0%
601,275
23.64
14.77
8.86
19.60
12.25
7.35
1,329,815
831,134
498,680
223,501
139,688
83,813
50,085
31,303
18,782
0.00
0.00
21,268,920
3,562,043
798,227
Z2 CONTINGENCIES
Z21 Design Contingency
Z22 Escalation Contingency
Z23 Construction Contingency
Z3 OTHER COSTS
Z31 Other Costs
0.0%
377.83
E.3
15052 Version 05
Schematic Design
Moran Plant
Renovation and Addition
01 Main Building
ELEMENTAL ESTIMATE
Description
Trade
Quantity
Rate
Quantity
Quantity
03 Enabling
$
Quantity
16,146 sf
16,146
Level 01
8,752 sf
8,752
Level 02
17,231 sf
17,231
Level 03
8,342 sf
8,342
Level 04
8,878 sf
8,878
Level 05
5,322 sf
5,322
Level 07
3,162 sf
3,162
67,833 sf
67,833
E.4
Scope
Proposal
Milestone
Public TIF Vote
City
MOU (NMI and City of BTV)
Diligence Report
Project Term Sheet
Development Agreement
Managament
Finance
Design
Permits
Construction
Mar Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2014
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2015
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2016
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2017
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
6. Market Study
Rental Rates
Trend
$25 - $35/SF
Strengthening
Premium Suburban
$17 - $35/SF
Stable
$12 - 17/SF
Stable
Trend
CBD - Class A
Stable
CBD - Class B
$8 - $12/SF + parking
Stable
As detailed above, commercial rental figures vary widely by type, location, and accessibility. Premier rental
spaces in downtown core and Church Street region range from $25-35/SF whereas premium suburban spaces
range from $17-35SF, and above average suburban retail figures range from $12-17/SF.
Class A office space in Burlingtons Central Business District range from $12-19/SF not including parking, and
Class B ranges from $8-12SF not including parking.
Common Area Maintenance (CAM):
The Allen & Brooks Report
2014 CAM Estimates: Chittenden County Retail Properties
Location
Range*
Average
Chittenden County
$2.10 - $5.25/SF
$3.39/SF
Range*
Average
Burlington, VT
$6.75 - 7.50/SF
$7.114/SF
Common Area Maintenance (CAM) charges are charges billed to tenants in a commercial lease based on their
pro rata share operating expenses of Landlords Property and Landlords Building, including repairs, insurance,
property maintenance, taxes, etc.
According to the Allen & Brooks 2014 report, Chittenden County retail CAM averages range between $2.105.25/SF, whereas office CAM fall slightly higher at between $6.75-7.50/SF.
Net $/SF
Average CAM
$25 - $35/SF
$3.39
$28.39 - 38.39 / SF
Premium Suburban
$17 - $35/SF
$3.39
$20.39 - 28.39 / SF
$12 - 17/SF
$3.39
$15.39 - 20.39 / SF
$12 - 17/SF
$7.114
$19.114 - 24.114 / SF
$8 - $12/SF
$7.114
$15.114 - 19.114/ SF
Tenant
First Level
Gross
SF
Leased SF
Net
$/SF
20,585
Market Hall
Second
Level
Share of Operating
Expenses
Projected
Cost to
Tenant
$ 9.00
$ 146,309
$ 312,107
$ 16.94
20,822
$ 6.33
$ 168,135
$ 300,000
$ 14.41
17,221
$ 9.00
$ 136,770
$ 291,759
$ 16.94
$ 448,228
$ 903, 866
23,604
Turbine Hall
Third Level
20,983
Innovation
Space
65,172
56,465
Conclusions:
As detailed above, Moran Plant total projected cost per square foot figures (net rent + CAM) are $16.94/SF in
both the Market Hall and Innovation Space. The same costs are $14.41/SF in the Turbine Hall.
In the Market Hall and Innovation Space, the gross figures reflect an approximately 40-56% ($16.93/SF :
$28.39-38.39/SF) reduction from Church Street rental figures, an approximately 17-40% ($16.93/SF vs .
$20.39 - 28.39/SF) reduction from rental figures in premium Chittenden County Suburban retail and are ~17%
below high-end Above Average Suburban retail (20.39 / SF) and ~10% above low-end Above Average
Suburban retail ($15.39/ SF)
As for office comparables, our rental rates represent an 11-30% reduction from Chittenden County Class A
office ($19.114-$24.114/SF) - The upper end range for Class A offices is represented by immediately adjacent
waterfront real estate at Main Street Landing. Our rates are show a 11% reduction from high-end Class B
offices, and are ~12% above low-end Class B offices.
The Turbine Hall reflects an approximately 49-62% reduction from premium Church Street spaces, a ~2949% reduction from premium Suburban spaces in Chittenden County, and ~6-29% reduction from Above
Average Suburban retail figures. As for office comparables, our rate reflect a 25%-40% reduction from Class A
office rental averages and a ~5%-25% reduction from Class B office rental averages.
CAM charges in the Moran Plant are approximately $7.94/SF. This is roughly 6% above the high-end for
Chittenden County Class A office properties ($7.50/SF), and about 11% above average ($7.114/SF). Moran
Plant CAM are $2.69/SF over the high-end for Chittenden County Retail Properties and $4.55/SF over
average. While CAM charges are slightly above comparable local averages, they include utilities,
communications and marketing expenses above typical lease arrangements. With that in mind, the increased
rate was expected and has been offset by lowering base Net $/SF cost, resulting in the universally below
average Gross Rent per SF outlined above.
Based on the data examined above and consultation with existing property managers in the Burlington area,
these rental figures are appropriate and achievable, taking into account existing tenant interest, nearby
comparable rentals, project cost, and inherent site variables such as year-round foot traffic. These projections
do mandate adequate parking on site or immediately adjacent to the Moran Plant. They also point to the need
for greater coordination between waterfront businesses and the city on shuttling and other creative measures
to make use of existing, non-waterfront, city parking infrastructure, while reducing barriers to accessing the
waterfront, especially during non-warm months.
Additional Analysis
1. We completed a review of rent schedule and projected expenses with three Burlington real estate
developers and brokers with significant property under management in the Burlington area and specifically the
waterfront. The conclusions were as follows:
a. The rental rates originally proposed ($14 PSF NNN, projected $24.08 PSF all in expense for
tenants), are on par with Class A office rates in the downtown~ and waterfront areas. While viable for
some tenants, they will preclude a variety of less established, profitable or well capitalized tenants,
especially in the food service, arts and education sectors. In addition, we changed our operating model
to reflect three master tenants, who would in turn sub-lease to smaller tenants and therefore require
lower up-front rental costs.
i. In response, gross rents were reduced 33-42% depending on intended use-class and lease
arrangement of each area in the building.
b. Operating expenses, and CAM charges by extension, were quite high for similar caliber buildings in
the Burlington market. Of note, projected recoverable expenses were 25-60% higher than other
buildings under local management in Burlington and on the waterfront.
i. Projected recoverable expenses for the Moran building include in-house management,
programming and marketing. While in one building, the services are loosely comparable to
those of Church Street Marketplace, and the included recoverable expenses echo the
Marketplace fee structure. While introducing an additional expense, the presence of
programming and marketing have been deemed essential to commercial viability of many
prospective tenants at Moran, and particularly in the winter.
ii. With that, recoverable expenses were adjusted based on operating expenses for comparable
spaces on the waterfront, resulting in a ~15% decrease in recoverable expenses.
iii. Non-recoverable expenses, which represent the administrative, staff and
professional costs of operating New Moran, Inc. were increased to reflect additional marketing,
community engagement, employee benefits and professional services, along with a greater
annual contingency.
c. Finally, the process by which tenants are reviewed under the Public Trust Doctrine will have an effect on the
ease of securing new tenants over time. This can be addressed through a clear articulation of an agreed upon
framework for tenant evaluation and acquisition which is both adaptable and enduring.
2. Two members of the NMI Board of Directors with significant experience in creative office and incubator
spaces provided insight and financial modeling to project potential use, tenant structure and alternative
financing structures within the Burlington community. The conclusions were:
a. The Moran Plant represents an iconic, dynamic and potentially highly desirable space for creative
collaboration, cultural and educational programming, and further development of Burlington as a hub for
technology, environmentalism and social innovation. The unique history and singular location can be
leveraged to create a vibrant, highly sought after space which meets a variety of needs.
b. There is an opportunity to explore corporate partnerships for ongoing underwriting of specific uses in
the building, and particularly those uses which provide direct community benefit. Such uses include
community meeting space equipped for audio/visual recording and broadcast, artisan and prototyping
space such as that of the existing Generator Maker Space, and food systems uses including
community garden education, food preparation and workforce development, and incubator space for
food service entrepreneurs.
c. It will be essential to solidify dynamic anchor tenants in order to attract a full cadre of tenants who
support the mission of the building and meet allowable uses under the Public Trust Doctrine.
d. While the program and appropriate anchor tenants are still under discussion, the initial conclusions
indicate strong potential to advance the mission of NMI through creative, dynamic partnerships with
local, regional and national companies and organizations interested in supporting a program which
serves all manner of Burlington residents and visitors.
3. A separate review was completed with the Flynn Center with regards to operating expenses. The Flynn
campus is within 10% of the projected square footage of Moran, and represents similar use classes across
their properties. As a non-profit managed historic structure, with significant programming on an annual, and
even daily basis, the Flynn provided a unique comparison. Projected Moran expenses are proportionally
appropriate to those of the Flynn Center, with some revisions made and an additional contingency included.